Business / Economic / Financial

[ This link to a somewhat more cumulative blog posts page will precede current days news since most all topics remain current in terms of impact and longer-term effect and can be searched by topical index term more easily. The same is provided since the blog site http://alpeiablog.blogspot.com has just been censored as to size by google which is typical for google as nsa / cia / gov’t shill as more are becoming aware of. The same is true for microsoft, another co. that’s seen their best days and relies on the government to maintain their monopoly. Up to now the better page http://www.scribd.com/alpeia is provided for ease of formatting and clarity thereby while the Washington Post page is the real deal but without formatting http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/community/mypost/index.html?plckPersonaPage=PersonaComments&plckUserId=alpeia&newspaperUserId=alpeia . The following is the cumulative archive of blog posts / topics for 2010 as the new year starts anew: http://albertpeia.com/December312010postsarchive.htm or PDF formatted version
http://albertpeia.com/December312010postsarchive.pdf ]

Obama proposes $3.7 trillion budget (Washington Post) [ What the heck! It’s only ‘helicopter ben’ monopoly money anyway; that paper stuff (Globalists Push SDRs as World Reserve Currency As investor Marc Faber noted last year, this funny money intervention by the Federal Reserve is going to create a final crisis that will destroy the U.S. financial system. The Fed “will print and print and print until the final crisis wipes out the whole system,” Faber warned. IMF calls for dollar alternative The International Monetary Fund issued a report Thursday on a possible replacement for the dollar as the world’s reserve currency. The IMF said Special Drawing Rights, or SDRs, could help stabilize the global financial system. ). Speaking of Monopoly / atlantic city, n.j., maryanne trump barry and sam alito, et als have done all right for themselves as the corrupt judiciary usually does, one way or another. Indeed, judicial retirement funds for these plushly accoutered lifetime appointees is up 25.9% and the general operating fund up 6.6% (source, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/politics/federal-budget-2012/index.html … the trumps are getting it up front and on the back end, which is typical in a pervasivly corrupt system as defacto bankrupt america … abolish the courts . Connecticut, California join probe of Ally (Washington Post) [ I’d be much more impressed if they initiated a probe of more readily discernible criminal offenses in violation of the RICO Act (Other newark / new jersey and new york, n.y. metro, viz., ie., connecticut, and of course, d.c., d.c. metro, viz., ie., virginia experience … corrupt federal judges as maryanne trump barry, sam alito, shiff, matz (california), hall, underhill, dorsey, etc.. Defacto bankrupt america’s so-called system is pervasively corrupt and broken (AP) Abolish the corrupt, costly, economically wasteful lifetime extravagantly appointed federal courts - see RICO case http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm ) `]` http://albertpeia.com Frauds/Liars (sic-lawyers)Covering Up for Other Frauds/Liars (sic-lawyers). In Productive Societies as China, Japan, etc., Fraudulent Liars (sic-lawyers) and the Fraudulent u.s. System They're a Part of Are Unheard Of/Non-existent. List of Files Regarding Filed Attorney Grievance Against Fraud coan et als Or Here For A Clearer View Of Filed Grievance Complaint, Response, Exhibits, and Related RICO Filings Note the Committee of Frauds/Liars (sic-lawyers). Included are DOJ Rep., State Court Rep., State Atty. General Office Rep., and even a Vegetable Garden yale law prof who probably never practiced law in his life. How Pathetic! http://albertpeia.com/fbiofficela91310 ] Justice: FBI improperly opened probes (Washington Post) [ I just hope they’re as zealous (in probing readily discernible crime) with regard to my RICO matters and the corruption in the (judicial / legal) process since, in the final analysis, it will have been the corruption within that will have brought the nation down irrevocably and totally.]

Concerns over European defense cuts (Washington Post) [ At some point, rationality must overcome irrationality; if only necessity being the mother of this new-found invention (rationality). Interestingly, there was a blip on television news from a NATO rep talking up the technological / military superiority of NATO relative to Russia (without whose technological prowess that space station and crew would literally be lost in space). So take that, literally … and make the cuts (rational). ] European policymakers say the cuts are necessary given their financial straits, and that training, not sheer numbers, is what matters in a post-Cold War world.

Budget makes deep cuts, cautious trades (Washington Post) [ I still have great difficulty wrapping my mind around the cut in the (relatively minuscule) heating oil program for the poor (after all, that’s potentially lethal to such disenfranchised groups) … Drudgereport:`White House to Slash Heating Program for Poor…but still no pros of massive frauds on wall street which fines and disgorgement of would yield huge amounts to cover spending... [` Howard Davidowitz on the Economy: "Here Are the Numbers ... WE'RE BROKE!" 11-25-10 ‘The U.S. economy "is a complete disaster," Howard Davidowitz declared here in July, the most recent in a string of dire predictions from Tech Ticker's most entertaining guest.On the eve of Thanksgiving, I asked Davidowitz if he had any regrets, or was ready to throw in the towel given recent signs of economic revival. Are you kidding me? "Here are the numbers...we're broke," Davidowitz declares, noting the U.S. government goes $5 billion deeper into debt every day and is facing $1 trillion-plus annual deficits for the next decade. "In other words, we're bankrupt."As with the economy, Davidowitz is unwaveringly consistent in his views on President Obama, calling him "deranged, dysfunctional and discredited."Results of the midterm election show "the people of this country think we are in a catastrophe," he says. "I'm with them."Check the accompanying video for more of Howard's unfettered opinions and stay tuned for additional clips from this interview. And...Happy Thanksgiving! Aaron Task is the host of Tech Ticker. You can follow him on Twitter at @atask or email him at altask@yahoo.com’ Timid Tuesday: Is it Safe? Davis ‘… This is how we pay off our current debts and I think bondholders are simply happy to get anything out of a country that admits it owes $15Tn (1/4 of global GDP) but probably owes closer to $60Tn (entire global GDP) in the form of unfunded liabilities. The funniest thing about this (and you have to laugh) is to see Conservative pundits get on TV and talk about how we need to cut $100Bn worth of discretionary spending to "fix" this (while continuing to spend $1Tn on the military and $1Tn on tax cuts for the top 1% each year). There is no fixing this and even a Republican said you can’t fool all of the people all of the time. THIS HOUSE OF CARDS IS TEETERING FOLKS – PLEASE BE CAREFUL OUT THERE! ‘`]` ] Fed chairman offers dire warnings about the damage Congress could wreak if it refrains from raising the government's debt limit this spring. ] The $3.7 trillion plan proposes to trim or terminate more than 200 federal programs to make room for increases aimed at boosting the economy.

Robinson: Do conservatives love freedom? (Washington Post) [ Truth be told, I’ve oft referred to myself as conservative. I also embrace freedom; which, of course, is the antithesis of ‘such conservatives’ as ie., mobsters as trump et als, Maryanne trump barry, sam alito, mafia, neo-cons cheney, dumbya bush, rumsfeld, mental cases as john bolton, trump, dummy palin, limbaugh, hannity, etc., who in their near facist way always want control; ie., your thoughts, actions, inclinations, etc.. The left, totalitariarian communism, wobamanoids in the dhs, etc., are little different. I personally am constrained to disassociate myself with the likes of the foregoing and as discussed infra:

Dick Cheney and Donald Rumsfeld booed at GOP convention in D.C. New York Daily News | Donald Rumsfeld and Dick Cheney were booed on Thursday at the Conservative Political Action Conference. Ron Paul At CPAC: ‘Government is in the process of failing’ Is he running for US Senate? Is he signaling his bid for US president? Or is he hinting at something deeper within the US political climate? Milbank: Donald trumps CPAC | Gibbs gone (Washington Post) [ Trump’s a loser, dressed up and propped up by and to shill for a declining, fallen nation in the most corrupt regions of the country (every fallen nation has such); of that there is no question …"Over the years I've participated in many battles and have really almost come out very, very victorious every single time," the Donald said. (Except for the bankruptc[ies], that is. [ trump’s never won a battle that wasn’t fixed in advance (including the ‘pre-packaged bankrupcies’ crammed down the throats of objecting creditors – jersey general ] ) "I've beaten many people and companies, and I've won many wars," he added. (Though he didn't serve in the military.) "I have fairly [according to mobster rules; ie., bribery, money laundering, etc.] but intelligently [ as any other mob boss … trump is total b* s*, a fraud, and lightweight … and, despite the façade, quite insecure … trump’s a total mental case … He truly is the ‘poster-boy’ of american decline and part of the problem, not the solution! …trump also said america’s become the laughingstock of the world … true enough … and trump the biggest joke … NEWS FLASH: Direct from Lost Angeles Learning Annex – Presenting mobster t_rump of new yoke, new joyzey, and now caleefornia mob fame with his continuing message for the past several years: buy real estate (and watch the values go down…..riiiiight!).
`Bank sues Trump over Chicago tower loan...`
`Trump casino to miss interest payment...`
`trump’s fired (from ‘his own company’)`

Gunfire Erupts Inside trump Taj Mahal Casino, 1 Dead - Second Such Incident In A Year At N.J. Mainstay Ends With Employee Killed – What else would you you expect from a mobster’s casino in mob-infested jersey!

Trump luxury resort folds, leaving buyers defrauded…litigation has commenced…send for sister maryanne, the corrupt federal judge to preside, coverup, etc., she’s in n.y./n.j./pa 3^rd circuit ct appeals, understands drug money laundering/fraud and handles her own motions to recuse her and like mobster trump should be in jail ... (see RICO Case)

] earned many billions of dollars [ at whose expense ], which in a sense was both a scorecard and acknowledgment of my abilities [ to fool most of the people, all of the time. ] ." TRUMP DRAWS CHEERS, BOOS AT CONSERVATIVE CONFERENCE...
PONDERING PRESIDENTIAL RUN... [Don’t make me laugh! … Donald T_rump Would Impose 25% Tax on China Imports if President [ trump also said america’s become the laughingstock of the world … true enough … and trump the biggest joke … Indeed, that trump even posits the possibility of a run when he should be in jail is a testament to just how big a laughingstock pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt america’s become! [ If he was mobster in chief, mobster and scoundrel trump wraps himself in populist american flag and offers up an (too little too late – typical lightweight) implausible solution to keep ‘the juice’ flowing though he’d already be in jail in a rational, non-declining nation with meaningful laws. All China has to do is dump (and not prospectively buy) their ever more and declining in value day-by-day (from dollar debasement policies) u.s. paper / bonds and overnight and the u.s. economy consequently thereby collapse. [ When you come right down to it, this has been america’s most significant export. Indeed, this irrevocable structural shift, hailed by cia men hw bush and clinton (clinton couldn’t have survived with them) by way of NAFTA as the greatest thing since sliced bread was indeed in no uncertain terms condemned and warned against by Perot, a man of honor who, unlike his opponents, could not be bought, which is the reason, in pervasively corrupt america, he could never have been elected. Interestingly, you may have noticed the good (but not great, other than the spotlight on pervasive bribery including judges, police, politicians, etc., being far too light) the film ‘The Untouchables’ getting a wide re-airing of late, purporting to be a significant part of american folklore / history / culture. However, the reality is that in america, and certainly today, the real story with impact is that of ‘The Touchables’. The reality is that Elliot Ness died a broken man; bankrupt, unable to even win election to the mayoralty of his then current hometown. He was incorruptible; and hence, in the real america, unelectable at the least if not also all but unemployable (he and his are among those few genetic anomalies in america as I’ve previously alluded to. How far america has fallen from even false perception! Pervasively corrupt, meaningfully lawless america can’t even fake it anymore. See, for example, http://albertpeia.com/CIAAgentAffidavit1.jpg http://albertpeia.com/FBIAgentAffidavit11.jpg , and of course, corrupt legal / judicial processes, etc., Defacto bankrupt, fraudulent america also spends more on offensive (defensive a misnomer / propaganda) military spending than all the nations of the world combined, and by a large margin at that. Do you see a pattern emerging here [ I unfortunately only belatedly did, and the feds, fed employees, cia, all 3 branches of the u.s. government, etc., are included in this evolved american trait of inherent criminality in the most nefarious sense … The pervasively corrupt american illegal system … corrupt u.s. courts / (lawyers) / judges: Their lifetime plush appointments should be abolished, which corrupt entities are unheard of in productive societies as China, Japan, etc.. Time to abolish these drags on society and eliminate their lifetime stipends and costly bureaucracies. Rules of law mean nothing to these typically corrupt americans. Most, including sam alito of the u.s. supreme court, concerning drug money laundering and obstruction of justice in the 3^rd circuit ( also maryanne trump barry who covered-up drug money laundering through her brother’s casinos in a civil RICO case) should have gone to or belong in jail. Contrary to popular belief, they do it for the money, personal money, big, cash, untraceable money. The fog of war is great for such things (360 tons $100 bills flown into Iraq and missing, etc.). [ http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm ]. america’s just a fraudulent and failed defacto bankrupt nation. ] “I would announce, without equivocation, a 25% tax increase on anything purchased from China.” ]
CHENEY HECKLED... 'DRAFTDOGER!' 'WHERE'S BIN LADEN?' ]

Symbolic reductions (Washington Post) Gerson: Why would the GOP cut funding for bed nets in Africa? [ Well, given the perilous state of a nation-state in peril; viz., defacto bankrupt america and the imperiled citizenry therein, one might ask how such was funded in the first instance… Drudgereport: DEBT NOW EQUALS ENTIRE ECONOMYOBAMA AGENDA IS OVERObama refers to himself as 'The Gipper'… [ Riiiight! …anything you say wobmama the b for b*** s***… or maybe the bipper, the chipper, or the yankee clipper (the new joltin’ joe) …sounds like he’s losing it! ] ... France Wants New Global Finance System; End of Dollar Dominance... Fannie, Freddie bailout: $153 billion and counting... GALLUP: Unemployment at 10.3%...GADDAFI TELLS PALESTINIANS: REVOLT AGAINST ISRAELGov't Motors to pay out $189 million in bonuses; some workers to get 50% payoffs.. Deficit Expected to Jump to $1.65 Trillion...
...'slow train wreck coming'
BUDGET BLOWOUT: How big is $3.73 trillion? $12,000 from each American...
ANALYSIS: $1.5 trillion tax hike over 10 years...
AIRLINES: New fees would be $2 billion tax increase on flyers...
Sessions: Obama failed on budget...
Long Spending Fight... Produce prices to skyrocket with freeze in Mexico, Southwest...
Clothing Prices to Rise 10% Starting in Spring... China Replaced Japan in 2010 as Number 2 Economy...
China plans Colombian rail link to challenge Panama canal...The March On Berlusconi...

Malware 'Aimed at Iran Hit Five Sites'...

Mubarak 'falls into coma after final speech'...
Egyptian military orders last protesters out of 'Liberation Square'...
Consolidates power...
Delivers ultimatum...

]

Could the Dow Hit 4,500? [ Short answer: YES! Prechter et als say even far lower (which I would agree with in real terms, but not in debased dollar terms.) ] Norfolk ‘October 20, 1999: I am at a breakfast briefing run by a British investment house. Scarfing my bacon bap and croissant, washed down with the treacly and malodorous coffee that only hotels can provide, I feel quite the patronised lower-order businessman as I listen to the market overview.

Suddenly, I become uneasy. It's not the stomach registering the high fat food - nothing like it for dealing with last night's alcohol, I find - it's the strange disconnection between what the fund reps are telling me and what they want me to do. They are feeding me dead pig so I will recommend equity investment to my clients - but they're telling me (with relaxed smiles) "the American stock market could be as much as 50% too high, and a correction is overdue", as I reported in a letter to a client the next day.

We sure get bought cheaply, don't we?

It was around the same time that I attended a monthly broker network meeting in Worcester, where another fund house recruiting sergeant told us IFA doughboys how (in 1999) the tech boom was only in its first phase, and a sort of super-boom was coming next.

That's when I decided (1) to start reminding my people that most of their pensions and investments had an option to switch to cash within the wrapper - with the caveat that I had no crystal ball, and (2) to change my own business and earnings model to survival mode.

The next year, when one of our colleagues at the monthly get-together revealed that the best asset class for the last 12 months had been cash and asked hands up who'd seen that coming, I kept my hand down. I didn't want to disappear in a hail of slightly stale bread rolls.

Today I read in "The Spectator" magazine an article by Merryn Somerset Webb, editor-in-chief of "Moneyweek". She points out the inflationary boom in the East and suggests a contrarian play - invest West (counting Japan as part of the West) - but warns of overvaluation here, too:

"I refer you to two valuation measures that seek to tell us where markets will go over ten to 20 years, the cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio and the Q ratio of market value to underlying asset value. According to their biggest fan, the strategist Andrew Smithers, they now tell us that the US market is around 70 per cent overvalued."

I fear that Smithers is an optimist; or rather, when he says a market is overvalued, I assume he's using a theoretical fair value as his point of reference, and ignoring the overshoot effect. 70% overvaluation implies a 40% (ish) drop; but for a long time I've been watching for a 70% drop.

Back in October 2008, J. Kyle Bass of Hayman Advisors (.pdf here) was saying "We think we will see 10-12% unemployment, a 4-5% decline in GDP, and the equity markets could drop at least 70% from peak to trough." (I love that reassuringly conservative "at least", don't you? As Wavy Gravy said at Woodstock, "There is always a little bit of heaven in a disaster area." Maybe we will all be feeding each other again, man.)

So I had a go at drawing a picture... in December 2008, I took the Dow at close at the start of each calendar month from late October 1928 to 80 years later, and divided it by inflation (CPI-U) as announced for the end of the preceding month (I figured that even official figures for consumer prices aren't as manipulated as the gold market). Here's what I got: [chart]
Re-done today to the end of January, here's the same story updated:
[chart]
Read this way, the real peak was at the end of 1999, then the market halved until monetary inflation from 2003 blew up real estate, then it halved again until the wonders of QE, and sometime soon the Fed's lungs are going to give out once more.

Allowing for inflation, a drop of 70% from December 1999 would mean the Dow's low should be just under 4,500 today. That red dot really doesn't look so freakishly out of whack in context - not half so much as the Twin Peaks before it.

Of course, inflation is the joker in the pack. I'm talking about a deflation of the Dow in real terms; one way that could happen is a phoney boom discounted by high inflation - like 1973 - 1982, for instance:
[chart]

It took until April 1992 for the real Dow to get back to what it had been worth in December 1972; but at least it got back. The dollar lost 70% of its consumer purchasing power over the same period.

Like I said in my last SA article (This Liquidity Will Soak Us All ), it may be that we're going to wet, no matter what tree we stand under.

Meantime, I'm buying my own sandwiches.’

21 Signs That The Once Great U.S. Economy Is Being Gutted, Neutered, Defanged, Declawed And Deindustrialized Once upon a time… The Economic Collapse Feb 12, 2011 ‘Once upon a time, the United States was the greatest industrial powerhouse that the world has ever seen. Our immense economic machinery was the envy of the rest of the globe and it provided the foundation for the largest and most vibrant middle class in the history of the world. But now the once great U.S. economic machine is being dismantled piece by piece. The U.S. economy is being gutted, neutered, defanged, declawed and deindustrialized and very few of our leaders even seem to care. It was the United States that once showed the rest of the world how to mass produce televisions and automobiles and airplanes and computers, but now our industrial base is being ripped to shreds. Tens of thousands of our factories and millions of our jobs have been shipped overseas. Many of our proudest manufacturing cities have been transformed into “post-industrial” hellholes that nobody wants to live in anymore.

Meanwhile, wave after wave of shiny new factories is going up in nations such as China, India and Brazil. This is great for those countries, but for the millions of American workers that desperately needed the jobs that have been sent overseas it is not so great.

This is the legacy of globalism. Multinational corporations now have the choice whether to hire U.S. workers or to hire workers in countries where it is legal to pay slave labor wages. The “great sucking sound” that Ross Perot warned us about so long ago is actually happening, and it has left tens of millions of Americans without good jobs.

So what is to become of a nation that consumes more than it ever has and yet continues to produce less and less?

Well, the greatest debt binge in the history of the world has enabled us to maintain (and even increase) our standard of living for several decades, but all of that debt is starting to really catch up with us.

The American people seem to be very confused about what is happening to us because most of them thought that the party was going to last forever. In fact, most of them still seem convinced that our brightest economic days are still ahead.

After all, every time we have had a “recession” in the past things have always turned around and we have gone on to even greater things, right?

Well, what most Americans simply fail to understand is that we are like a car that is having its insides ripped right out. Our industrial base is being gutted right in front of our eyes.

Most Americans don’t think much about our “trade deficit”, but it is absolutely central to what is happening to our economy. Every year, we buy far, far more from the rest of the world than they buy from us.

In 2010, the U.S. trade deficit was just a whisker under $500 billion. This is money that we could have all spent inside the United States that would have supported thousands of American factories and millions of American jobs.

Instead, we sent all of those hundreds of billions of dollars overseas in exchange for a big pile of stuff that we greedily consumed. Most of that stuff we probably didn’t need anyway.

Since we spent almost $500 billion more with the rest of the world than they spent with us, at the end of the year the rest of the world was $500 billion wealthier and the American people were collectively $500 billion poorer.

That means that the collective “economic pie” that we are all dividing up is now $500 billion smaller.

Are you starting to understand why times suddenly seem so “hard” in the United States?

Meanwhile, jobs and businesses continue to fly out of the United States at a blinding pace.

This is a national crisis.

We simply cannot expect to continue to have a “great economy” if we allow our economy to be deindustrialized.

A nation that consumes far more than it produces is not going to be wealthy for long.

The following are 21 signs that the once great U.S. economy is being gutted, neutered, defanged, declawed and deindustrialized….

#1 The U.S. trade deficit with the rest of the world rose to 497.8 billion dollars in 2010. That represented a 32.8% increase from 2009.

#2 The U.S. trade deficit with China rose to an all-time record of 273.1 billion dollars in 2010. This is the largest trade deficit that one nation has had with another nation in the history of the world.

#3 The U.S. trade deficit with China in 2010 was 27 times larger than it was back in 1990.

#4 In the years since 1975, the United States had run a total trade deficit of 7.5 trillion dollars with the rest of the world.

#5 The United States spends more than 4 dollars on goods and services from China for every one dollar that China spends on goods and services from the United States.

#6 In 1959, manufacturing represented 28 percent of all U.S. economic output. In 2008, it represented only 11.5 percent and it continues to fall.

#7 The number of net jobs gained by the U.S. economy during this past decade was smaller than during any other decade since World War 2.

#8 The Bureau of Labor Statistics originally predicted that the U.S. economy would create approximately 22 million jobs during the decade of the 2000s, but it turns out that the U.S. economy only produced about 7 million jobsduring that time period.

#9 Japan now manufactures about 5 million more automobiles than the United States does.

#10 China has now become the world’s largest exporter of high technology products.

#11 Manufacturing employment in the U.S. computer industry is actually lower in 2010 than it was in 1975.

#12 The United States now has 10 percent fewer “middle class jobs” than it did just ten years ago.

#13 According to Tax Notes, between 1999 and 2008 employment at the foreign affiliates of U.S. parent companies increased an astounding 30 percent to 10.1 million. During that exact same time period, U.S. employment at American multinational corporations declined 8 percent to 21.1 million.

#14 Back in 1970, 25 percent of all jobs in the United States were manufacturing jobs. Today, only 9 percent of the jobs in the United States are manufacturing jobs.

#15 Back in 1998, the United States had 25 percent of the world’s high-tech export market and China had just 10 percent. Ten years later, the United States had less than 15 percent and China’s share had soared to 20 percent.

#16 The number of Americans that have become so discouraged that they have given up searching for work completely now stands at an all-time high.

#17 Half of all American workers now earn $505 or less per week.

#18 The United States has lost a staggering 32 percent of its manufacturing jobs since the year 2000.

#19 Since 2001, over 42,000 U.S. factories have closed down for good.

#20 In 2008, 1.2 billion cellphones were sold worldwide. So how many of them were manufactured inside the United States? Zero.

#21 Ten years ago, the “employment rate” in the United States was about 64%. Since then it has been constantly declining and now the “employment rate” in the United States is only about 58%. So where did all of those jobs go?

The world is changing.

We are bleeding national wealth at a pace that is almost unimaginable.

We are literally being drained dry.

Did you know that China now has the world’s fastest train and the world’s largest high-speed rail network?

They were able to afford those things with all of the money that we have been sending them.

How do you think all of those oil barons in the Middle East became so wealthy and could build such opulent palaces?

They got rich off of all the money that we have been sending them.

Meanwhile, once great U.S. cities such as Detroit, Michigan now look like war zones.

Back in 1985, the U.S. trade deficit with China was about 6 million dollars for the entire year.

As mentioned above, the U.S. trade deficit with China for 2010 was over 273billion dollars.

What a difference 25 years can make, eh?

What do you find when you go into a Wal-Mart, a Target or a dollar store today?

You find row after row after row of stuff made in China and in other far away countries.

It can be more than a bit difficult to find things that are actually made inside the United States anymore. In fact, there are quite a few industries that have completely and totally left the United States. For certain product categories it is now literally impossible to buy something made in America.

So what are we going to do with our tens of millions of blue collar workers?

Should we just tell them that their jobs are not ever coming back so they better learn phrases such as “Welcome to Wal-Mart” and “Would you like fries with that”?

For quite a few years, the gigantic debt bubble that we were living in kind of insulated us from feeling the effects of the deindustrialization of America.

But now the pain is starting to kick in.

It has now become soul-crushingly difficult to find a job in America today.

According to Gallup, the U.S. unemployment rate is currently 10.1% and when you throw in “underemployed” workers that figure rises to 19.6%.

Competition for jobs has become incredibly fierce and it is going to stay that way.

The great U.S. economic machine is being ripped apart and dismantled right in full view of us all.

This is not a “conservative” issue or a “liberal” issue. This is an American issue.

The United States is rapidly being turned into a “post-industrial” wasteland.

It is time to wake up America.’

Beware The Lagging Dow Trick Adler ‘When the Dow lags the broader market like it did today, it’s usually a sign the market managers want to run it up without the public on board, so beware of that if it continues for a few days. The bad news out of Fedex (FDX) is causing some after hours unpleasantness, but you know how that game goes. Shakeout at night, market makers' delight. Uncle Ben is scheduled to deposit $5-7 billion into Primary Dealer trading accounts tomorrow, but a big Treasury settlement will suck a massive amount of cash out of their wallets. The Treasury settles a whopping $62 billion in notes and bonds on Wedneday. That's a lot more than the Fed cash they got in the last week which will be only $12.5 billion to $23.5 billion including what they got last week. You might here a giant sucking sound for a day. I saw little change in the technicals today. This narrowly based uptrend has the potential to go on and on with minor shakes along the way. The 10-12 month cycle projection looks to be honing in on 1390 in my cycle work. That will probably shift some with the idealized top window open from now through April. The Wells Fargo-NAHB homebuilders index will be out at 10 AM Tuesday. Builder traffic has been non-existent and purchase mortgage applications have been hovering just above 20 year lows, so I don't see any improvement likely in sales activity. The numbers could easily get worse if they weren't already so close to the zero bound. The market shouldn't be surprised by that, but given the big Treasury settlement sucking cash out of dealer and other accounts, that could be a catalyst for a selloff. All of this bad news will be a setup for dealers to take down some inventory for another run as the Fed stuffs their trading accounts with cash in the days ahead. Bears should not be fooled by this. Don't get sucked in. Dippers, hold your fire until the selling is washed out.’

Stock Market Resiliency Being Put to the Test Editor's Note: This article was written by Richard Suttmeier, chief market strategist at ValuEngine.com ‘The test of resiliency for stocks comes from the dynamics for the US capital markets, both fundamentally and technically. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note has held my annual value level at 3.791, and these high yields are a drag on equity valuations. Comex gold has been volatile but seems to find a home at my annual pivot at $1356.5. Nymex crude oil trades on both sides of my semiannual pivot at $87.52. In this environment US stocks have become overvalued fundamentally and overbought technically. Stocks have been trading under a ValuEngine Valuation Warning for the past three days as the major averages push the envelope of new multi-year highs.I still see the warning flags flying from Egypt, Europe, and the emerging markets which are laggards as we approach mid-February. While the Dow Industrial Average is up 5.6% year to date the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index Fund (EEM) is down 5.4%, and the iShares FTSE China 25 Index Fund (FXI) is down 4.0% and is below both its 50-day simple moving average at $43.28 and its 200-day simple moving average at $42.13. These types of negative divergences suggest to me that US stocks are vulnerable once their Fed-induced bubbles pop.Thursday’s equity closes were above all of this week’s pivots at 12,142 Dow Industrial Average, 1316.2 S&P 500, 2770 Nasdaq, 5077 Dow Transports, and 800.13 Russell 2000. The S&P 500 tested and held its weekly pivot at 1316.2. The Dow Transport Average outperformed on Thursday and tested its annual pivot at 5179.

The Dow Industrial Average (12,229) -- My monthly value level is 11,759 with daily and annual risky levels at 12,404 and 13,890.
The S&P 500 (1321.9) -- My quarterly value level is 1262.5 with today’s risky level at 1344.5.
The NASDAQ (2790) -- My monthly value level is 2611 with daily and quarterly risky levels at 2850 and 2853.
Dow Transports (5168) -- My monthly value level is 4962 with daily and annual pivots at 5162 and 5179. Transports lag its January 18 high at 5256.80.
The Russell 2000 (812.70) -- My annual and quarterly value levels are 784.16 and 765.50 with a daily risky level at 829.97.

We are trading under a ValuEngine Valuation Warning -- 16 of 16 sectors overvalued with only 33.15% of all stocks undervalued on Wednesday, below the 35% threshold by this measure. This also means that 66.86% of all stocks are overvalued. Why does Wall Street think stocks are cheap?

The US Treasury 10-Year Yield -- (3.702) My annual value level is 3.791 with a weekly risky level at 3.525.

Comex Gold -- ($1361.7) My quarterly and annual pivots are $1331.3 and $1356.5 with daily, monthly, quarterly, and semiannual risky levels are $1375.2, $1412.4, $1441.7, and $1452.6.

Nymex Crude Oil – ($87.14) My semiannual pivot at $87.52 has become a magnet with a monthly pivot at $91.83.

The Euro -- (1.3593) My quarterly value level is 1.3227 with my monthly risky level at 1.4225.

Foreclosure Lull as Repossessions Rise Again

Foreclosure paperwork issues have slowed the home foreclosure process over the past two months, but as this dilemma works its way to a solution, foreclosures will rise again, as will bank auctions of OREO (Other Real Estate Owned). As a result, more homeowners who are missing mortgage payments are staying in their homes longer, adding to the backlog of bad loans. Meanwhile, banks are picking up the pace in repossessions taking back 78,133 properties in January according to RealtyTrac. This is up 12% from December. Banks took back more than a million homes in 2010, and about five million borrowers are at least two months behind on mortgage payments.The housing problems remain the same: high unemployment, a weak housing market, falling home prices, and tighter lending standards.’

Bernanke Helps Fuel an Increasingly Expensive Market Roche ‘As the market continues to grind higher each and every day, it’s useful to gain some perspective on just how much Bernanke is impacting valuations and generating disequilibrium in the market. In order to do so we’ll review a number of long-term valuation indicators.

The first is Warren Buffett’s self proclaimed favorite valuation tool (see here for more). He uses the total market cap of the US stock market compared to GNP. He has generally maintained that levels below 80% are bullish. The latest reading of 106% is well below the levels seen at the last two market peaks, but well above the historical average levels. You will notice that the permanently high valuations coincide with the Greenspan Put which has now morphed into the Bernanke Put.

click to enlarge images [chart]

John Hussman’s latest piece succinctly describes the current market environment in which Ben Bernanke continues to encourage speculation and malinvestment. As we all know by now it is Bernanke’s goal to keep asset prices “higher than they otherwise would be” in an attempt to generate a self sustaining economic recovery through asset prices. This is the insane notion that nominal wealth will lead to real wealth.

In fact, Ben Bernanke has this quite backwards. Fundamentals drive real wealth – not nominal price increases. But two bubbles in one decade doesn’t teach this man a lesson. Hussman elaborates:

Last week, the S&P 500 Index ascended to a Shiller P/E in excess of 24 (this “cyclically-adjusted P/E” or CAPE represents the ratio of the S&P 500 to 10-year average earnings, adjusted for inflation). Prior to the mid-1990′s market bubble, a multiple in excess of 24 for the CAPE was briefly seen only once, between August and early-October 1929. Of course, we observe richer multiples at the heights of the late-1990′s bubble, when investors got ahead of themselves in response to the introduction of transformative technologies such as the internet. After a market slide of more than 50%, investors again pushed the Shiller multiple beyond 24 during the housing bubble and cash-out financing free-for-all that ended in the recent mortgage collapse.

And here we are again. This is not to say that we can rule out yet higher valuations, but with no transformative technologies driving the economy, little expansion in capital investment, and ongoing retrenchment in consumer balance sheets, I can’t help but think that the “virtuous cycle” rhetoric of Ben Bernanke is an awfully thin gruel by comparison. We should not deserve to be called “investors” if we fail to recognize that valuations are richer today than at any point in history, save for the few months before the 1929 crash, and a bubble period that has been rewarded by zero total return for the S&P 500 since 2000. Indeed, the stock market has lagged the return on low-yielding Treasury bills since August 1998. I am not sure that even members of my own profession have learned anything from this.

[chart]

Using his expected returns methodology Mr. Hussman is looking for annual returns of just 3.15% in the coming decade:

[chart]

Dshort brings us the Q Ratio which has now hit “nosebleed” territory again. This is consistent with the other metrics which all showed relatively stable ranges until the Fed began its unusual policy of propping up markets following the 87 crash. The latest reading of 1.17 is well below the Nasdaq bubble peak, but is higher than any other historical peak. “Nosebleed” could be an understatement.

[chart]

As I mentioned in December, we have to ask ourselves if any of this matters as long as the Fed is directly involved in promoting speculation. It’s now clear that the Bernanke Put is well ingrained in every investor’s head. Never has the Federal Reserve been so explicit about propping up asset prices and it has created a speculative frenzy that has every investor trying to front-run the Fed.

The problem for the Fed will be letting their foot off the gas. They have created a beast that they likely no longer control. When and if the Fed ever ends QE it is likely that markets will begin to revert to the mean. This will likely force the Fed’s hand to stabilize markets. So what we’ve created with this explicit backstop is a positive feedback loop. Can the Fed ever get out of the market now? And if they don’t it’s likely that markets will spiral higher until they cannot control the inevitable collapse.

The foolishness of current Fed policy cannot be downplayed. Let’s hope for the sake of US citizens that they are as quick to take credit for the inevitable market decline as they have been about taking credit for the rally. For once they admit to having contributed to malinvestment and misallocation of resources we can likely begin mounting a case that closes this horrible chapter in American history where the Central Bank attempted to turn our economy into a financialized ponzi scheme.’

Hosni Mubarak resigns: Switzerland to freeze assets of ousted ruler Switzerland has announced it was freezing assets in the country owned by newly resigned President Hosni Mubarak of Egypt.

The Faulty Economic Model Behind America’s Support for Dictators (Instead of Democracies) It is obvious that America has long supported dictators, instead of democracies, in developing countries.

Fannie, Freddie bailout: $153 billion … and counting When the dust settles, the federal bailout of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will be the most expensive government rescue of the financial crisis — it already stands at $153 billion and counting.

The American Dream: It’s the Bank versus the Republic You Tube | THE AMERICAN DREAM takesa look at why leaders throughout our history have warned us and fought against the current type of financial system we have in America today.

Debt now equals total U.S. economy Washington Times | Obama projects that the gross federal debt will top $15 trillion this year, officially equalling the size of the entire U.S. economy.

Obama Releases $3.73 Trillion Budget WSJ | President Barack Obama released a $3.73 trillion budget for fiscal-year 2012 Monday.

France wants new global finance system France will help the transition to a global financial system based on ‘several international currencies’, the French Economy Minister said today.

Worst Freeze In 60 Years Wipes Out Entire Crops Across The Southwestern U.S. And Northern Mexico Get ready to pay a lot more for produce at the supermarket. In early February the worst freeze in 60 yearswiped out entire crops all across the southwestern U.S. and northern Mexico.

Roubini’s Next Crisis Is Scary Food for Thought Forget Egypt for a moment. Skip the water crisis in China. Look past angst on the streets of Bangladesh. If you want to see how extreme the effects of surging food prices are becoming, look to wealthy Japan.

UN: Escalating food prices leading to civil unrest In January, world food prices hit a record high. The Associated Press reports that escalating food prices is related to civil unrest.

Engineered Economic Collapse Approaching; the Inevitable Ron Paul constantly reminds us that money is created out of thin air, which is to say it’s an illusion. Therefore, the debt must be an illusion too, correct? Yet, fiscal conservatives still use the debt as a tool of fear to make budget cuts that they selectively deem expendable.

China overtakes Japan as world’s second-largest economy China has leapfrogged Japan to become the world’s second-largest economy, a title Japan has held since 1968.

Obama's budget would add $13 trillion to national debt President Barack Obama visited Susan Yoder's science class Monday at Parkville Middle School and Center of Technology in Parkville, Md. Video: Obama Advisor: President Made Tough Budget Cuts The Associated Press Rejected Tax Increases Make a Return in Obama Administration Budget Plan Bloomberg

(2-14-11) Dow 12,268 -5 Nasdaq 2,817 +7 S&P 500 1,332 +3 [CLOSE- OIL $89.03 (-54% for year 2008) (RECORD TRADING HIGH $147.27) GAS $3.11 (reg. gas in LAND OF FRUITS AND NUTS $3.35 REG./ $3.53 MID-GRADE/ $3.62 PREM./ $3.68 DIESEL) / GOLD $1,365 (+24% for year 2009) / SILVER $30.62 (+47% for year 2009) PLATINUM $1,834 (+56% for year 2009) / DOLLAR= .73 EURO, 83 YEN, .62 POUND STERLING, ETC. (How low can you go - LOWER)/ http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/update 10 YR NOTE YIELD 3.62% …..… AP Business Highlights ...Yahoo Market Update... T. Rowe Price Weekly Recap – Stocks / Bonds / Currencies - Domestic / International This Is a Secular Bear Market and The End of Buy and Hold … and Hope MARKET MANIPULATION AND HOW THE LATEST BUBBLE-FRAUD PRE-COMING CRASH IS BEING ACCOMPLISHED 3-11-10 6 Theories On Why the Stock Market Has Rallied 3-9-10 [archived website file] Risks Lurk for ETF Investors The bull market that never was/were beyond wall street b.s. when measured in gold Property Values Projected to Fall 12% in 2010 Jan 31, 2010 The Week Ahead: Risk Is Off the Cliff; Unwind Has Begun Jan 31, 2010 01-13-10 Forecast for 2010 from Seeking Alpha Contributor THE COMING MARKET CRASH / CORRECTION 1-28-10 Maierhofer (01-15-10) 11 Clear Signs Economy Sinking Economic Black Hole 1-22-10: 20 Reasons Why The U.S. Economy Is Dying And Is Simply Not Going To Recover Current Economic / Fiscal Charts Trendsresearch.com forecast for 2009 1-7-10 Crash is coming! ‘WORST ECONOMIC COLLAPSE EVER’ Must Read Economic / Financial Data This Depression is just beginning The coming depression… thecomingdepression.net MUST READ: JEREMY GRANTHAM’S QUARTERLY UPDATE 25 January 2010 (850 on the S&P) by TPC The Next Wave of Collapse is Coming Sooner than you think Sliding Back Into the Great Depression ABSOLUTELY, ABSURDLY, RIDICULOUS! SELL / TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME!

National / World

Obama Pencils In $37 Billion Budget Increase For DHS, Naked Body Scanners Steve Watson | No austerity measures to deal with for the bloated security theatre overlords

House OKs short-term extension of Patriot Act Los Angeles Times The House passes an extension of Patriot Act surveillance measures, temporarily bypassing 'tea party' lawmakers and others who say the provisions threaten privacy. Rep. Gibson votes against extending Patriot Act provisions The Saratogian 44: Patriot Act extension passes House, one week after unexpected defeat Washington Post

France joins China in effort for end of the dollar RTE | France will help the transition to a global financial system based on ‘several international currencies.’

Neocons Target Ron Paul After CPAC Poll Win Kurt Nimmo | Paul has stood tall against the neocon version of U.S. foreign policy.

Congressman Ron Paul booted from conservative group for anti-war views The conservative group Young Americans for Freedom (YAF) announced Saturday that Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX) would be expelled from the group’s National Advisory Board because of his “delusional and disturbing alliance with the fringe Anti-War movement.”

Terrorist Who Trained London Bombers Was Working For US Government Paul Joseph Watson | Listen up Glenn Beck: “Radical Islam” is a creature of the US military-industrial complex

Was Judge John Roll the actual target of the Giffords shooting? Ethan A. Huff | Judge Roll was considered by some to be one of the most constitutionally-centered judges in history.

Ron Paul to U.S. Government: Stop Propping Up Dictators CNN | Ron Paul speaks with Wolf Blitzer on Egypt and the GOP nomination during the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC).

Conning Slaves Becky Akers | Boobus Americanus happily hugs his chains so long as his masters feign that he’s in charge.

21 Signs That The Once Great U.S. Economy Is Being Gutted The Economic Collapse | The United States is rapidly being turned into a “post-industrial” wasteland.

Engineered Economic Collapse Approaching Eric Blair | Fiscal conservatives still use the debt as a tool of fear to make budget cuts.

Alex Jones: Egypt a campaign to destabilize region The Alex Jones Channel | Contrary to the ideas that the uprising in Egypt could signal true freedom, there is every reason believe that it is part of a larger destabilization effort in the region, sponsored by the U.S. military and multi-national intelligence rings.

Report: Mubarak in coma, no decision on move to hospital Egyptian newspaper al-Masry al-Youm reported that deposed Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak has been in a coma since Saturday, quoting “well-informed sources.”

Egypt’s new military regime to effectively outlaw strikes CAIRO – Egypt’s new military rulers will issue a warning on Monday against anyone who creates “chaos and disorder,” an army source said.

Gaddafi tells Palestinians: revolt against Israel Palestinian refugees should capitalise on the wave of popular revolts in the Middle East by massing peacefully on the borders of Israel until it gives in to their demands, Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi said on Sunday.

Quiet military coup was behind Mubarak’s resignation Haaretz | After Mubarak’s Thursday-night address Egyptian military leaders, anticipating the anger of the protesters, told Mubarak that if he did not step down voluntarily the army would force him out.

Egyptian military dissolves parliament, suspends Constitution BBC | Egypt’s new military authorities say they are dissolving parliament and suspending the constitution.

David Icke: There’s Been NO REVOLUTION So Far David Icke | I have been watching the understandable euphoria in Egypt live on Al Jazeera television, but please, there must be a sense of perspective here – and urgently.

Algeria shuts down internet and Facebook as protest mounts Internet providers were shut down and Facebook accounts deleted across Algeria on Saturday as thousands of pro-democracy demonstrators were arrested in violent street demonstrations.

Algeria Internet Not Shut Down, According To Renesys Analysis Internet intelligence authority Renesys, whichconfirmed the Egypt outage weeks ago, says in a new blog post that it has no evidence that Algeria’s Internet has been shut down.

Dear Glenn Beck, Egypt Destabilization-Op Hatched by Globalists, Not Communists Alex Jones breaks down the real factors behind Egypt’s uprising in a special video report where he rebuffs the theories of Glenn Beck, who tries to link the Muslim Brotherhood to radical socialism in the United States.

Wisconsin Gov. Walker Threatens To Deploy National Guard As ‘Intimidation Force’ Against Workers’ Unions Think Progress | When asked by a reporter what will happen if workers resist, Gov. Walker replied that he would call out the National Guard.

Rep. Jones pushes for end to Afghanistan War ENC Today | They are faces, not numbers, for Rep. Walter B. Jones, R-NC.

Anonymous hack reveals HBGary plan to destroy WikiLeaks V3 | Data released as part of a hacking attack by the Anonymous group has shown what appears to be a corporate plan to destroy WikiLeaks.

Tea Party declares war on military spending Guardian | Dispute between the Republican party establishment and the Tea Party movement boiled over into the public arena during this week’s CPAC conference.

Stocks gain as Mubarak resigns (Washington Post) [ Come on! Don’t be ridiculous! Stocks gain regardless of the ‘event resignation’ as pointed out by Dave, immediately infra. The ‘miracle’ of computer-programmed high-frequency trading fraud with fed / congressional complicity, which will inevitably end quite badly for the vast majority at whose expense the gains for the relative few are made. One-Way Market Action: Dave's Daily ‘"To the moon"(Alice) might be a better description of this nonstop bullish action. All week markets were worrying about Egypt. When things were bad there, markets rallied. When things seemed better, markets rallied. When Cisco and Credit Suisse posted lousy reports, markets rallied. When China raised interest rates, markets rallied. Every dip has been bought and every dip has been buying. All this was taking place while many emerging markets were breaking down creating some divergence from previously high inter-market correlations. Things are going so well most reliable technical indicators are getting steamrolled by what those few trading must believe is a rosy future. Market rallies have been steady but not spectacularly higher with daily .50% type moves. But, those add up. Does all this frustrate us? Partially, since active portfolios exited a couple of weeks ago but Lazy Portfolios are doing better. Making sense of Mr. Market has never been an easy proposition. I'm back from attending the annual Inside ETFs conference in Florida where I moderated a panel on technical analysis. Most panelists were bullish but couldn't pin-point why other than "price" analysis. Friday Mubarak gave up probably needing the extra time to round-up the loot before he left town for a Club Med in Dubai or some such place. Markets opened lower on Mubarak's initial determination but then rallied some on his change of heart Friday…’ ] The relief over the embattled leader's departure extends well beyond Tahrir Square.

nato destructive mis-adventures in the mid-east, the american public is relatively insulated from the realities of same, from war crimes to destruction of innocent lives and property, by way of propaganda and inured by their own zombification. The realities of the west’s inflicted horrors have finally come home to roost. There are and will be consequences! This world is not a vacuum. ]

GOP's plan for spending cuts sets Capitol Hill showdown (Washington Post) [ Showdown? How ‘bout hoedown! I mean, give me a break … who’s kidding whom … but the ‘show’ part fits! Timid Tuesday: Is it Safe? Davis ‘… This is how we pay off our current debts and I think bondholders are simply happy to get anything out of a country that admits it owes $15Tn (1/4 of global GDP) but probably owes closer to $60Tn (entire global GDP) in the form of unfunded liabilities. The funniest thing about this (and you have to laugh) is to see Conservative pundits get on TV and talk about how we need to cut $100Bn worth of discretionary spending to "fix" this (while continuing to spend $1Tn on the military and $1Tn on tax cuts for the top 1% each year). There is no fixing this and even a Republican said you can’t fool all of the people all of the time. THIS HOUSE OF CARDS IS TEETERING FOLKS – PLEASE BE CAREFUL OUT THERE! ‘ Howard Davidowitz on the Economy: "Here Are the Numbers ... WE'RE BROKE!" 11-25-10 ‘The U.S. economy "is a complete disaster," Howard Davidowitz declared here in July, the most recent in a string of dire predictions … "Here are the numbers...we're broke," Davidowitz declares, noting the U.S. government goes $5 billion deeper into debt every day and is facing $1 trillion-plus annual deficits for the next decade. "In other words, we're bankrupt."As with the economy, Davidowitz is unwaveringly consistent in his views on President Obama, calling him "deranged, dysfunctional and discredited."Results of the midterm election show "the people of this country think we are in a catastrophe," he says. "I'm with them."] Some Republicans express concerns about the steep cuts, but some cheer the trims as an important political objective -- meeting a campaign pledge they made last fall to grass-roots activists.

Milbank: Donald trumps CPAC | Gibbs gone (Washington Post) [ That trump is a loser, dressed up and propped up by and to shill for a declining, fallen nation in the most corrupt regions of the country (every fallen nation has such), there is no question …"Over the years I've participated in many battles and have really almost come out very, very victorious every single time," the Donald said. (Except for the bankruptc[ies], that is. [ trump’s never won a battle that wasn’t fixed in advance – jersey general ] ) "I've beaten many people and companies, and I've won many wars," he added. (Though he didn't serve in the military.) "I have fairly [according to mobster rules; ie., bribery, money laundering, etc.] but intelligently [ as any other mob boss … trump is total b*** s***, a fraud, and lightweight … and, despite the façade, quite insecure … trump’s a total mental case … He truly is the ‘poster-boy’ of american decline and part of the problem, not the solution! NEWS FLASH: Direct from Lost Angeles Learning Annex – Presenting mobster t_rump of new yoke, new joyzey, and now caleefornia mob fame with his continuing message for the past several years: buy real estate (and watch the values go down…..riiiiight!).
Bank sues Trump over Chicago tower loan...
Trump casino to miss interest payment...
trump’s fired (from ‘his own company’)

] earned many billions of dollars [ at whose expense ], which in a sense was both a scorecard and acknowledgment of my abilities [ to fool most of the people, all of the time. ] ."

Egypt's popular uprising triumphs In 18 days, a revolution topples 30-year regime Hosni Mubarak becomes the second Arab leader in a month to succumb to his people's potent thirst for freedom. (Washington Post) [ That 82 year old, 30 year Egyptian potentate, Pharhosni Mubarak was done was never in question. What comes next is another matter entirely:

Drudgereport: IMF CALLS FOR ALTERNATIVE TO $$ AS WORLD'S RESERVEMILITARY TAKES COMMAND'Egypt is Free,' crowds chant...
WIRE: Military coup was behind Mubarak's exit... Military calls for normal business activity to resume...
DAY 18: Mubarak and family flee Cairo for Sharm el-Sheikh...
Swiss freeze assets...
Obama learns of resignation watching TV...
Crisis Puts White House in Disarray...
Director of National Intelligence: Muslim Brotherhood 'Largely Secular,' 'Has Eschewed Violence'...
'Weakness' in USA...
Ahmadinejad: Egyptian protests herald new Mideast...
AL-JAZEERA LIVE FEED...
FRANCE 24 LIVE FEED... Mubarak Hangs Tough...
VP Urges Protestors to Ignore Media, and Go Home...
AL-JAZEERA LIVE FEED...
CIA Panetta Confused: Said Strong likelihood Mubarak would 'step down tonight'...
March to palace being organized...
REUTERS LIVE...
ElBaradei warns Egypt will 'explode'.... Egypt's govt on the brink.. FLASH CRASH: APPLE stock loses $10 billion in four minutes...
Jobs' Health Rumor? Global Stock Exchanges Headed for Major Consolidation... Kyl becomes fifth senator to step aside... Fed Governor Resigns; Bernanke Adviser Questioned Stimulus...
NBC: Intelligence officials 'scrambling to try to determine exactly what this all means'... TRUMP DRAWS CHEERS, BOOS AT CONSERVATIVE CONFERENCE...
PONDERING PRESIDENTIAL RUN... [Don’t make me laugh! … Donald T_rump Would Impose 25% Tax on China Imports if President [ trump also said america’s become the laughingstock of the world … true enough … and trump the biggest joke … Indeed, that trump even posits the possibility of a run when he should be in jail is a testament to just how big a laughingstock pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt america’s become! [ If he was mobster in chief, mobster and scoundrel trump wraps himself in populist american flag and offers up an (too little too late – typical lightweight) implausible solution to keep ‘the juice’ flowing though he’d already be in jail in a rational, non-declining nation with meaningful laws. All China has to do is dump (and not prospectively buy) their ever more and declining in value day-by-day (from dollar debasement policies) u.s. paper / bonds and overnight and the u.s. economy consequently thereby collapse. [ When you come right down to it, this has been america’s most significant export. Indeed, this irrevocable structural shift, hailed by cia men hw bush and clinton (clinton couldn’t have survived with them) by way of NAFTA as the greatest thing since sliced bread was indeed in no uncertain terms condemned and warned against by Perot, a man of honor who, unlike his opponents, could not be bought, which is the reason, in pervasively corrupt america, he could never have been elected. Interestingly, you may have noticed the good (but not great, other than the spotlight on pervasive bribery including judges, police, politicians, etc., being far too light) the film ‘The Untouchables’ getting a wide re-airing of late, purporting to be a significant part of american folklore / history / culture. However, the reality is that in america, and certainly today, the real story with impact is that of ‘The Touchables’. The reality is that Elliot Ness died a broken man; bankrupt, unable to even win election to the mayoralty of his then current hometown. He was incorruptible; and hence, in the real america, unelectable at the least if not also all but unemployable (he and his are among those few genetic anomalies in america as I’ve previously alluded to. How far america has fallen from even false perception! Pervasively corrupt, meaningfully lawless america can’t even fake it anymore. See, for example, http://albertpeia.com/CIAAgentAffidavit1.jpg http://albertpeia.com/FBIAgentAffidavit11.jpg , and of course, corrupt legal / judicial processes, etc., Defacto bankrupt, fraudulent america also spends more on offensive (defensive a misnomer / propaganda) military spending than all the nations of the world combined, and by a large margin at that. Do you see a pattern emerging here [ I unfortunately only belatedly did, and the feds, fed employees, cia, all 3 branches of the u.s. government, etc., are included in this evolved american trait of inherent criminality in the most nefarious sense … The pervasively corrupt american illegal system … corrupt u.s. courts / (lawyers) / judges: Their lifetime plush appointments should be abolished, which corrupt entities are unheard of in productive societies as China, Japan, etc.. Time to abolish these drags on society and eliminate their lifetime stipends and costly bureaucracies. Rules of law mean nothing to these typically corrupt americans. Most, including sam alito of the u.s. supreme court, concerning drug money laundering and obstruction of justice in the 3^rd circuit ( also maryanne trump barry who covered-up drug money laundering through her brother’s casinos in a civil RICO case) should have gone to or belong in jail. Contrary to popular belief, they do it for the money, personal money, big, cash, untraceable money. The fog of war is great for such things (360 tons $100 bills flown into Iraq and missing, etc.).

[ http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm ]. america’s just a fraudulent and failed defacto bankrupt nation. ] “I would announce, without equivocation, a 25% tax increase on anything purchased from China.” ]
CHENEY HECKLED... 'DRAFTDOGER!' 'WHERE'S BIN LADEN?' ]

Mubarak Steps Down as President, Army Takes Over ABC News | Egypt’s embattled President Hosni Mubarak abruptly stepped down as president, ending his 30-year America’s Strategic Repression of the ‘Arab Awakening’ A popular backlash against American-supported dictatorships and repressive regimes has been anticipated for a number of years, with arch-hawk geopolitical strategist Zbigniew Brzezinski articulating a broad conception of a ‘Global Political Awakening’ taking place, in which the masses of the world (predominantly the educated, exploited and impoverished youth of the ‘Third World’) have become acutely aware of their subjugation, inequality, exploitation and oppression.

One-Way Market Action: Dave's Daily ‘"To the moon"(Alice) might be a better description of this nonstop bullish action. All week markets were worrying about Egypt. When things were bad there, markets rallied. When things seemed better, markets rallied. When Cisco and Credit Suisse posted lousy reports, markets rallied. When China raised interest rates, markets rallied. Every dip has been bought and every dip has been buying. All this was taking place while many emerging markets were breaking down creating some divergence from previously high inter-market correlations. Things are going so well most reliable technical indicators are getting steamrolled by what those few trading must believe is a rosy future. Market rallies have been steady but not spectacularly higher with daily .50% type moves. But, those add up. Does all this frustrate us? Partially, since active portfolios exited a couple of weeks ago but Lazy Portfolios are doing better. Making sense of Mr. Market has never been an easy proposition. I'm back from attending the annual Inside ETFs conference in Florida where I moderated a panel on technical analysis. Most panelists were bullish but couldn't pin-point why other than "price" analysis. Friday Mubarak gave up probably needing the extra time to round-up the loot before he left town for a Club Med in Dubai or some such place. Markets opened lower on Mubarak's initial determination but then rallied some on his change of heart Friday…’

Bad News and Higher Prices - Bullish Wall of Worry or Reason to Worry? [Definitely reason to worry; this up, up and away, valuation be damned preceded the last crash and the crash before that! ] Maierhofer, On Friday February 11, 2011 ‘If it's too obvious, it's obviously wrong. More often than not, this proverbial Wall Street adage has the last laugh. What's the prevailing consent on Wall Street? What's suspiciously obvious today?

- The Fed is here to help. As long as there's QE2 (or QE3, 4, etc,) prices will go up.

- January was positive. As January goes, so goes the year.

- This is the third year of the Presidential Election Year Cycle. There hasn't been a negative third year since 1939.

- There's no catalyst to send stocks higher.

While Wall Street analysts are trying to one up each other's positive forecasts, the Fear Index, VIX (Chicago Options: ^VIX) has fallen to a 3 year low. The last time the VIX was at a similar level was in April 2010, just before a literally fear-inspiring 17% correction and the May 'Flash Crash' (see chart below).The ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter didn't subscribe to the prevailing optimism in April 2010 and warned that: 'The message conveyed by the composite bullishness is unmistakably bearish. The pieces are in place for a major decline.'Does that mean that the bottom will fall out again within a matter of days? Not necessarily, but now is certainly not the time to be married to your holdings. Tight sell stops are warranted because any minor correction could turn into a large one. Why?

New Bull Market, or Mother of all Bear Market Rallies?

The devil's in the long-term trend. If we are in a new bull market, any dip would present a buying opportunity. If we are in the mother of all bear market rallies, every rally is a trap and represents a selling opportunity.How can one determine whether we are in a new bull market, or a bear market rally? [chart] It's said that bull markets climb a wall of worry. No doubt there was extreme pessimism surrounding the March 2009 lows. That's one of the reasons the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter sent out a strong buy signal on March 2, 2009.But pessimism at the bottom doesn't equal a wall of worry. In fact, following the initial bout of disbelief, investors embraced the rally rather quickly. In late 2009, sentiment readings became frothy, in January 2010 they rivaled 2007 extremes (stocks fell 9%), and in April 2010 they exceeded 2007 extremes (stocks fell 17%).About two thirds of the rally from the 2009 lows was accompanied by optimism. This is no wall of worry.

Glass Half Full Outlook

Think about it, even the truly big problems - unemployment and falling real estate (NYSEArca: IYR - News) prices - were sugar coated from the very beginning. The unemployment problem was charmingly called 'jobless recovery' and falling real estate prices were simply ignored.The Case-Shiller home price index is down four months in a row, but nobody is bothered. A few days ago, MarketWatch ran an article: '10 reasons to be bullish on housing.'Courtesy of the continuing real estate conundrum, the FDIC closed 157 banks in 2010, and 14 thus far in 2011. According to a Wall Street Journal article, the top 10 U.S. owned banks (NYSEArca: KBE - News) had $13.8 billion in unrealized losses.Those are not reflected in earnings numbers as long as financial institutions (NYSEArca: XLF - News) believe the investment will later rebound. Guess what? Banks are pretty darn sure prices will reclaim their 2006 all-time highs.In addition to the $13.8 billion in unrealized losses, the top 10 U.S. banks owned $360.7 billion in illiquid, hard to value assets (called level 3 assets). While paper earnings appear solid, it appears as if banks are hiding skeletons in their closets. But who cares, stocks (NYSEArca: VTI - News) are up.

Anomaly Explained

Ben Bernanke has openly admitted that asset inflation, or the wealth effect from rising stock prices, is the objective of QE2. Obviously, the money flow from the Federal Reserve over banks into the stock market has been the driving force behind this monster rally.Much of the Fed money has been funneled into commodities. Since QE2, net speculative positions in wheat and copper have doubled, oil soared 115%, soybeans 40% and corn 15%. Rising commodity prices (NYSEArca: DBC - News) are putting the squeeze on lower income Americans and will eventually lower profit margins for the materials sector (NYSEArca: XLB - News).It's quite likely that this ripple effect will spill over into the retail (NYSEArca: XRT - News), technology (NYSEArca: XLK - News), and consumer discretionary sector (NYSEArca: XLY - News). From there it's just a matter of time until it hits the broader Dow (DJI: ^DJI), S&P (SNP: ^GSPC) and Nasdaq (Nasdaq: ^IXIC).Contrary to its objective, QE2 has also sent interest rates soaring. Higher interest rates tend to encourage the money to flow from equities into bonds. Higher interest rates put pressure on bond (NYSEArca: AGG - News) and stock prices alike.

Early Detection

The trend is your friend, but the trend is a fair-weather friend and can turn at any given time. The trend doesn't announce its intention to change direction. It switches back and worth as it pleases without your permission.Courtesy of your friend the trend, everybody is a genius in a bull market ... and a nave misguided trend follower when prices drop without prior notice.There is no foolproof way to find out when the market is about to change directions. There are, however, ways to put the odds in your favor.Watching support levels has proven a very effective way. A few months ago 1,170 was a crucial support level highlighted by the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter. The S&P tested this level no less than five times, but never broker below it and rallied over 10% since.Just recently, 1,270 was such a support level. The S&P tested it twice before moving into the 1,320 range. The market is dynamic and can change swiftly; therefore, it's the market that dictates support levels, not us. We just identify and use them.At the current juncture, support levels are vital because they define the trend. As long as support remains intact, so does the rally. Once support is broken, watch out…’

Stock Market Resiliency Being Put to the Test Minyanville Suttmeier, chief market strategist at ValuEngine.com.’The test of resiliency for stocks comes from the dynamics for the US capital markets, both fundamentally and technically. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note has held my annual value level at 3.791, and these high yields are a drag on equity valuations. Comex gold has been volatile but seems to find a home at my annual pivot at $1356.5. Nymex crude oil trades on both sides of my semiannual pivot at $87.52. In this environment US stocks have become overvalued fundamentally and overbought technically. Stocks have been trading under a ValuEngine Valuation Warning for the past three days as the major averages push the envelope of new multi-year highs.I still see the warning flags flying from Egypt, Europe, and the emerging markets which are laggards as we approach mid-February. While the Dow Industrial Average is up 5.6% year to date the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index Fund (EEM) is down 5.4%, and the iShares FTSE China 25 Index Fund (FXI) is down 4.0% and is below both its 50-day simple moving average at $43.28 and its 200-day simple moving average at $42.13. These types of negative divergences suggest to me that US stocks are vulnerable once their Fed-induced bubbles pop.Thursday’s equity closes were above all of this week’s pivots at 12,142 Dow Industrial Average, 1316.2 S&P 500, 2770 Nasdaq, 5077 Dow Transports, and 800.13 Russell 2000. The S&P 500 tested and held its weekly pivot at 1316.2. The Dow Transport Average outperformed on Thursday and tested its annual pivot at 5179.

The Dow Industrial Average (12,229) -- My monthly value level is 11,759 with daily and annual risky levels at 12,404 and 13,890.
The S&P 500 (1321.9) -- My quarterly value level is 1262.5 with today’s risky level at 1344.5.
The NASDAQ (2790) -- My monthly value level is 2611 with daily and quarterly risky levels at 2850 and 2853.
Dow Transports (5168) -- My monthly value level is 4962 with daily and annual pivots at 5162 and 5179. Transports lag its January 18 high at 5256.80.
The Russell 2000 (812.70) -- My annual and quarterly value levels are 784.16 and 765.50 with a daily risky level at 829.97.

We are trading under a ValuEngine Valuation Warning -- 16 of 16 sectors overvalued with only 33.15% of all stocks undervalued on Wednesday, below the 35% threshold by this measure. This also means that 66.86% of all stocks are overvalued. Why does Wall Street think stocks are cheap?

The US Treasury 10-Year Yield -- (3.702) My annual value level is 3.791 with a weekly risky level at 3.525.
Comex Gold -- ($1361.7) My quarterly and annual pivots are $1331.3 and $1356.5 with daily, monthly, quarterly, and semiannual risky levels are $1375.2, $1412.4, $1441.7, and $1452.6.
Nymex Crude Oil – ($87.14) My semiannual pivot at $87.52 has become a magnet with a monthly pivot at $91.83.
The Euro -- (1.3593) My quarterly value level is 1.3227 with my monthly risky level at 1.4225.

Foreclosure Lull as Repossessions Rise Again
Foreclosure paperwork issues have slowed the home foreclosure process over the past two months, but as this dilemma works its way to a solution, foreclosures will rise again, as will bank auctions of OREO (Other Real Estate Owned). As a result, more homeowners who are missing mortgage payments are staying in their homes longer, adding to the backlog of bad loans. Meanwhile, banks are picking up the pace in repossessions taking back 78,133 properties in January according to RealtyTrac. This is up 12% from December. Banks took back more than a million homes in 2010, and about five million borrowers are at least two months behind on mortgage payments.
The housing problems remain the same: high unemployment, a weak housing market, falling home prices, and tighter lending standards.’

Debunking the 'Debunking Myths of U.S. Collapse' Post Ridder [ Stated another way, the collapse of the (dis)united states is at hand. Now, let me state, that doesn’t mean america will disappear from the face of the earth, but the reality truly is ‘death from a thousand cuts’. It’s not just China’s rise, but america’s decline and fall with the concomitant relative rise of other nations, regions. Quite simply, and historically factual reality has proven, nation-states cannot and have not survived the multitude of negative, destructive, and self-destructive things america has done and prosper as a leading nation. From perpetual war, to pervasive corruption, fraud, criminality across all stratum including institutions, government of american society, to what I believe as well to be an evolved genetic bias of inherent criminality/mental illness which is ill-adapted to the strictures of a more enlightened 21st Century by way of near instantaneously available information, with truth and factual reality being america’s greatest enemy. In support of the foregoing I will reiterate reasons, infra.] ‘This is a short response to another post I recently read, "Debunking Myths of U.S. Collapse," which was a follow up to the article "The End of America? Not Quite." This post had various and numerous flaws, in my opinion, which I thought had to be addressed. I have unfortunately recently undergone shoulder surgery, so I will not be able to provide as comprehensive response as I might hope; but I will provide some basic arguments and thoughts that rebut or refute the statements given in the "Debunking" post. First, under the heading "Printing Money Does Not Create Wealth," in which the author attempts to refute this statement, there is this line of reasoning:

"How will the 'wasted' money get into the hands of the wealth creators? If the new ear pickers go into their communities and spend it at local businesses, the printed money goes from useless employees, into the accounts of productive businesses (of course the producers get less after layers of tax bites). So the act of spending printed dollars itself will get those dollars into the hands of businesses who are able to create wealth."

Quickly, I will point to Japan, which has tried this over 20 years and seems not to have created much wealth as measured by the Japanese stock market. On the face of it this is a Keynesian solution and one source to explain the Keynesian fallacies, and provide logic for its arguments, is the book, "The Failure of the New Economics: An Analysis of the Keynesian Fallacies."

Secondly, we come across this statement:

You will realize Dick Cheney got it right when he said 'Deficits don't matter,' and will rest well knowing the US will not default through non-payment, nor hyper-inflation."

The author Murray Rothbard in the book, "Making Economic Sense," rebuts this thinking where he writes:

"Myth 1: Deficits are the cause of inflation; deficits have nothing to do with inflation."

"In recent decades we always have had federal deficits. The invariable response of the party out of power, whichever it may be, is to denounce those deficits as being the cause of perpetual inflation. And the invariable response of whatever party is in power has been to claim that deficits have nothing to do with inflation. Both opposing statements are myths.

"Deficits mean that the federal government is spending more than it is taking in in taxes. Those deficits can be financed in two ways. If they are financed by selling Treasury bonds to the public, then the deficits are not inflationary. No new money is created; people and institutions simply draw down their bank deposits to pay for the bonds, and the Treasury spends that money. Money has simply been transferred from the public to the Treasury, and then the money is spent on other members of the public.

"On the other hand, the deficit may be financed by selling bonds to the banking system. If that occurs, the banks create new money by creating new bank deposits and using them to buy the bonds. The new money, in the form of bank deposits, is then spent by the Treasury, and thereby enters permanently into the spending stream of the economy, raising prices and causing inflation. By a complex process, the Federal Reserve enables the banks to create the new money by generating bank reserves of one-tenth that amount. Thus, if banks are to buy $100 billion of new bonds to finance the deficit, the Fed buys approximately $10 billion of old Treasury bonds. This purchase increases bank reserves by $10 billion, allowing the banks to pyramid the creation of new bank deposits or money by ten times that amount. In short, the government and the banking system it controls in effect "print" new money to pay for the federal deficit.

"Thus, deficits are inflationary to the extent that they are financed by the banking system; they are not inflationary to the extent they are underwritten by the public."

Third, the author is just plain wrong mathematical analysis under the heading, "Printing Money Will Cause the U.S. Dollar to Lose Reserve-Currency Status," the author writes:

"Granted, China is growing at roughly 10% a year, and we are only growing at 3%. I get that. Let's do the math though and see if we should worry. If China is a $6 trillion economy, growing at 10%, they grow by $600 billion a year. If we are a $14 trillion economy growing at 3%, we grow by $420 billion a year. In this close to reality example, China is closing the gap at $180 billion a year. At this rate - it will take China 44 years to even match the US in GDP. Can they continue to grow at 10% a year, while their largest customer grows at 3% for 44 straight year? We are a far cry from no longer being the largest economy. The biggest economy in the world should be blessed with the reserve currency."

I took $14 trillion and grew it at a 3% rate in a spreadsheet and then took $6 trillion in a spreadsheet and grew it at 10% a year. One will find that if the 3% and 10% growth rates hold then in only 13 years (from a base year of zero) the Chinese economy would surpass the U.S. economy. This is much lower than 44 years, actually less than 30% of the time! It appears the author forgot to compound the growth rates but just used the difference in the first year to compute a timeline. Finally, the OECD showed that the EU-27 had a larger economy than the U.S. in 2009.

Fourth, there is this paragraph headline, "If Money Printing is Good, Then Just Print Enough To Give Everyone $1 Million," and then tries to protect the money printing position, which starts as follows:

"If printing is not a big deal, then why not just print away? The doom and gloomers jump to the conclusion that if I think printing won't cause the collapse of America, it must be a good thing. So why not seek more of that good thing?"

The author then rambles on about how he is not calling for everyone to get a huge lump sum and therefore his money printing position is okay. Left unanswered is what is the "right" amount of money to print and how exactly does it get distributed. Rothbard provides a more thoughtful analysis of this type of situation, again, in his book, "The Mystery of Banking," where he introduces the Angel Gabriel analogy:

"To show why an increase in the money supply confers no social benefits, let us picture to ourselves what I call the "Angel Gabriel" model. The Angel Gabriel is a benevolent spirit who wishes only the best for mankind, but unfortunately knows nothing about economics. He hears mankind constantly complaining about a lack of money, so he decides to intervene and do something about it. And so overnight, while all of us are sleeping, the Angel Gabriel descends and magically doubles everyone's stock of money. In the morning, when we all wake up, we find that the amount of money we had in our wallets, purses, safes, and bank accounts has doubled.

"What will be the reaction? Everyone knows it will be instant hoopla and joyous bewilderment. Every person will consider that he is now twice as well off, since his money stock has doubled. In terms of our Figure 3.4, everyone's cash balance, and therefore total M, has doubled to $200 billion. Everyone rushes out to spend their new surplus cash balances. But, as they rush to spend the money, all that happens is that demand curves for all goods and services rise. Society is no better off than before, since real resources, labor, capital, goods, natural resources, productivity, have not changed at all. And so prices will, overall, approximately double, and people will find that they are not really any better off than they were before. Their cash balances have doubled, but so have prices, and so their purchasing power remains the same. Because he knew no economics, the Angel Gabriel's gift to mankind has turned to ashes.

"But let us note something important for our later analysis of the real world processes of inflation and monetary expansion. It is not true that no one is better off from the Angel Gabriel's doubling of the supply of money. Those lucky folks who rushed out the next morning, just as the stores were opening, managed to spend their increased cash before prices had a chance to rise; they certainly benefited. Those people, on the other hand, who decided to wait a few days or weeks before they spent their money, lost by the deal, for they found that their buying prices rose before they had the chance to spend the increased amounts of money. In short, society did not gain overall, but the early spenders benefited at the expense of the late spenders. The profligate gained at the expense of the cautious and thrifty: another joke at the expense of the good Angel." (Pages 45-46)

Fifth, it appears that the author has reintroduced the fallacy of the labor theory of value when he states:

"The U.S. Dollar Has Lost 96% of its Purchasing Power - Thus Printing Makes Us Poorer. This argument only covers one side of the story. While each individual dollar buys less goods, the argument is incomplete. To bust this myth, we just need to look at how much time it requires to pay for those goods. Instead of looking at how many dollars it takes to buy a candy bar today compared to 30 years ago, I would challenge you to instead value the candy bar in hours of labor to obtain it."

I am almost at a loss as how to respond to the labor theory of value appearing to pop up again. I think one can go to any of today’s basic economic textbooks and have that fallacy addressed. I only hope the author was intending to discuss real wages and unfortunately used poor wording that accidently came out as in favor for the labor theory of value.

Finally, the author writes:

"I want the reader to know though, you can rest confident knowing that tonight the U.S. will not collapse by the time you wake up in the morning. Sleep well because the U.S. Dollar will not be worthless when you wake up ... Fear for the collapse of America is unwarranted and rooted in misunderstanding of the monetary system in which we live under today. We are not Greece. Or Weimar. Or Zimbabwe."

I would caution the reader that author’s writing has numerous fallacies and mathematical inaccuracies. A need for clearer and more thoughtful thinking is needed to analyze the monetary and fiscal policies of Greece, Weimar, and Zimbabwe and compare them to the U.S. I do recall a while ago that the central bank head of Zimbabwe said his bank was just doing the same thing the FED was. This is not the type of neighborhood I would like to take even a short visit to.’

This is that unmentionable reality as I alluded to earlier on close scrutiny of the data, ‘that stock prices have been manipulated to the upside beyond any and all rational basis‘ and as I previously wrote: Perception vs. Reality: Four Reasons to Remain Cautious on U.S. Equities [ Hey, Abbott … That’s Lou Costello calling him from the other side … Wake up! … Just kidding … but I’m not kidding when I say that contrary to Abbott’s view, infra, if you’re not a successful market timer you should rethink your position as an equity investor. Moreover, in contradistinction to Mr. Abbott’s implication, if you’re not a successful speculator (there are very few), you should rethink your position as a short seller: reason…, you could be wiped out, lose more than your principal, forced to cover (that’s why the same is considered a contrary market indicator, particularly in these manipulated, contrived markets). When I did my MBA thesis (1977, NYU, GBA, Eve.Prog., Finance), a review of the data revealed even then (and much more so now with computer programmed market manipulation) that the market remained biased / propped up (artificially, especially now with computerized manipulation) to the upside for far longer periods of time than for the downside which meant that dollar-cost averaging (through regular, periodic investment, for example), meant you were accumulating shares at higher prices generally for longer periods of time skewing the average cost to the upside (dollar-cost-averaging in declining markets was ok if analysis / forecast saw resurgence based on fundamentals - now absent – which is timing, as even senile wall street / gov’t shill Buffet would attest, that ‘greedy when others are fearful thing’). Abbott discusses perception which is the psychological factor involved in security evaluation / analysis; but investors need not and should become nuts themselves, particularly when as now, the inmates are running the asylum. ] Abbott ‘Perception determines short-term market movements. The difference between perception and reality determines the direction of major market trends. Though I generally try to avoid making macro prognostications, I believe bottom-up analysis can be informative about the current level of stock prices. I want to share what my recent work tells me about where stocks are (and where they might be headed). I will outline some various nuggets of collective wisdom that are taken for granted right now by stock bulls, and I will attempt to demonstrate how reality is likely to differ from these perceptions.

First, a disclaimer. This is not a market timing call. At all times, I stay away from market timing predictions. I think that's a loser's game in the long run. Even if I'm correct about the discrepancies between the following perceptions and realities, there's no saying when people will change their minds or shift their focuses. That said, let's dive in.

Perception vs. Reality #1
Perception: Low Interest Rates, Questionable Bond Outlook Means Stocks are Attractive
Reality: Interest Rates Are Being Artificially and Deliberately Manipulated

It's no secret that the Federal Reserve's low interest rate policy and quantitative easing efforts have held interest rates very low for very long. However, when people talk about stock market implications of bond yields, they rarely mention the fact that bond yields are artificially low. In an unmanipulated market, bond prices and stock valuations should be related, but I regard that connection as highly dubious right now. Investors who say that stocks deserve higher multiples (lower earnings yields) because bond yields are so low may well be setting themselves up for disappointing returns/frustrating losses when bond prices normalize. Again, this isn't a market timing call, and yields may remain low for quite some time. But, eventually this discrepancy will correct itself, and stock performance is likely to suffer at that time.

Perception vs. Reality #2
Perception: Earnings Growth Has Been Strong and Will Remain That Way
Reality: Top-Line Growth Will Have to Pick Up; Cost-Cutting has Run Its Course

Earnings growth has certainly been robust, but much of the strength has come from companies running lean cost structures and wringing as much efficiency as possible out of their employees and their assets. Though the recession has ended, the economy is not yet healthy enough to fuel strong sales growth. Companies can only boost profits by cutting costs and increasing productivity for so long. Therefore, top-line growth will have to play a larger role going forward than it has over the past 4-6 quarters. Whether or not economic growth is strong enough to drive revenue increases is unsure, but the current level of stock prices undoubtedly assumes it is. Any stagnation of the recovery and concomitant sluggish sales will likely hit stock prices.

Perception vs. Reality #3
Perception: European Debt Crisis Drives Short-Term Volatility, but It's Not a Long-Term Concern
Reality: Crisis May Be a Harbinger of What's to Come in the U.S. if States, the Feds Don't Improve Balance Sheets

So far, turmoil in Greece and Ireland has served only as a temporary headwind to U.S. stocks. In keeping with the investment world's increasingly short-term focus, people seem more concerned with what fiscal crises in Europe mean for U.S. stocks over the coming days and months than with what they might mean down the road. I believe that this interpretation misses the mark. Since the U.S. fiscal situtation is generally considered to be stronger than that in many European countries, U.S. federal and municipal debt issuance has been relatively smooth, and interest rates have only risen modestly. If the U.S. doesn't get serious about its fiscal woes, eventually the crisis will arrive on American shores. There's no way of telling when this might happen, but the current level of stock prices seems to imply that it never will.

Here's the problem with that. To fix the federal balance sheet and/or to improve state and municipal balance sheets, legislators will have to raise taxes and/or cut spending. Tax hikes and spending cuts both reduce consumer spending. This hurts growth. There's no way around this. Stocks can certainly continue to rise for some time, but austerity will be bearish if/when it comes. If it doesn't come, we're in for a much bigger crisis some time down the road.

Perception vs. Reality #4
Perception: Everywhere You Look, You See Good Companies at Cheap Prices
Reality: It's Hard to Find Genuine Bargains, but There are Intriguing Short Prospects Everywhere

There is no shortage of stock market commentators who claim that they see bargains everywhere they look. Perhaps I'm not looking in the right places, but I've been having a difficult and increasingly impossible time finding good companies at reasonable prices. I use similar criteria to assess long and short investments, and I find intriguing shorts in lots of sectors right now. This tells me that valuations are stretched. Certainly they can become more so before we get a selloff, but every day that stocks rally, they get more expensive.

I've written on Seeking Alpha about a number of stocks which I regard as expensive (CRM, OPEN, GMCR), and take my word for it: there are plenty more than these whose shares I do not want to own at present levels. A few weeks ago, I also mused about the Facebook-Goldman deal and argued that this valuation is indicative of excessive investor enthusiasm. Bargains are hard to find, and as valuations go up, so does positive sentiment. While this is not a prediction of an impending correction or bear market, it is a message of caution for people who think stocks are cheap right now.

All that said, I always try to consider both sides of any investment issue, and there are some reasons for optimism. Job growth has shown signs of improvement, and some economic data have been increasingly (though not uniformly) positive. The Federal Reserve remains accommodative, and I'm skeptical about whether or not there is political will for austerity. For these reasons, stocks could continue onward and upward. That said, I see too many reasons for caution, and investors are turning a blind eye to these concerns as their complacency rises.’

12 Economic Collapse Scenarios That We Could Potentially See In 2011 What could cause an economic collapse in 2011? Well, unfortunately there are quite a few “nightmare scenarios” that could plunge the entire globe into another massive financial crisis.
The Economic Collapse Jan 20, 2011 ‘What could cause an economic collapse in 2011? Well, unfortunately there are quite a few “nightmare scenarios” that could plunge the entire globe into another massive financial crisis. The United States, Japan and most of the nations in Europe are absolutely drowning in debt. The Federal Reserve continues to play reckless games with the U.S. dollar. The price of oil is skyrocketing and the global price of food just hit a new record high. Food riots are already breaking out all over the world. Meanwhile, the rampant fraud and corruption going on in world financial markets is starting to be exposed and the whole house of cards could come crashing down at any time. Most Americans have no idea that a horrific economic collapse could happen at literally any time. There is no way that all of this debt and all of this financial corruption is sustainable. At some point we are going to reach a moment of “total system failure”.

So will it be soon? Let’s hope not. Let’s certainly hope that it does not happen in 2011. Many of us need more time to prepare. Most of our families and friends need more time to prepare. Once this thing implodes there isn’t going to be an opportunity to have a “do over”. We simply will not be able to put the toothpaste back into the tube again.

So we had all better be getting prepared for hard times. The following are 12 economic collapse scenarios that we could potentially see in 2011….

#1 U.S. debt could become a massive crisis at any moment. China is saying all of the right things at the moment, but many analysts are openly worried about what could happen if China suddenly decides to start dumping all of the U.S. debt that they have accumulated. Right now about the only thing keeping U.S. government finances going is the ability to borrow gigantic amounts of money at extremely low interest rates. If anything upsets that paradigm, it could potentially have enormous consequences for the entire world financial system.

#2 Speaking of threats to the global financial system, it turns out that “quantitative easing 2″ has had the exact opposite effect that Ben Bernanke planned for it to have. Bernanke insisted that the main goal of QE2 was to lower interest rates, but instead all it has done is cause interest rates to go up substantially. If Bernanke this incompetent or is he trying to mess everything up on purpose?

#3 The debt bubble that the entire global economy is based on could burst at any time and throw the whole planet into chaos. According to a new report from the World Economic Forum, the total amount of credit in the world increased from $57 trillion in 2000 to $109 trillion in 2009. The WEF says that now the world is going to need another $100 trillion in credit to support projected “economic growth” over the next decade. So is this how the new “global economy” works? We just keep doubling the total amount of debt every decade?

#4 As the U.S. government and the Federal Reserve continue to pump massive amounts of new dollars into the system, the floor could fall out from underneath the U.S. dollar at any time. The truth is that we are already starting to see inflation really accelerate and everyone pretty much acknowledges that official U.S. governments figures for inflation are an absolute joke. According to one new study, the cost of college tuition has risen 286% over the last 20 years, and the cost of “hospital, nursing-home and adult-day-care services” rose 269% during those same two decades. All of this happened during a period of supposedly “low” inflation. So what are price increases going to look like when we actually have “high” inflation?

#5 One of the primary drivers of global inflation during 2011 could be the price of oil. A large number of economists are now projecting that the price of oil could surge well past $100 dollars a barrel in 2011. If that happens, it is going to put significant pressure on the price of almost everything else in the entire global economy. In fact, as I have explained previously, the higher the price of oil goes, the faster the U.S. economy will decline.

#6 Food inflation is already so bad in some areas of the globe that it is setting off massive food riots in nations such as Tunisia and Algeria. In fact, there have been reports of people setting themselves on fire all over the Middle East as a way to draw attention to how desperate they are. So what is going to happen if global food prices go up another 10 or 20 percent and food riots spread literally all over the globe during 2011?

#7 There are persistent rumors that simply will not go away of massive physical gold and silver shortages. Demand for precious metals has never been higher. So what is going to happen when many investors begin to absolutely insist on physical delivery of their precious metals? What is going to happen when the fact that far, far, far more “paper gold” and “paper silver” has been sold than has ever actually physically existed in the history of the planet starts to come out? What would that do to the price of gold and silver?

#8 The U.S. housing industry could plunge the U.S. economy into another recession at any time. The real estate market is absolutely flooded with homes and virtually nobody is buying. This massive oversupply of homes means that the construction of new homes has fallen off a cliff. In 2010, only 703,000 single family, multi-family and manufactured homes were completed. This was a new record low, and it was down 17% from the previous all-time record which had just been set in 2009.

#9 A combination of extreme weather and disease could make this an absolutely brutal year for U.S. farmers. This winter we have already seen thousands of new cold weather and snowfall records set across the United States. Now there is some very disturbing news emerging out of Florida of an “incurable bacteria” that is ravaging citrus crops all over Florida. Is there a reason why so many bad things are happening all of a sudden?

#10 The municipal bond crisis could go “supernova” at any time. Already, investors are bailing out of bonds at a frightening pace. State and local government debt is now sitting at an all-time high of 22 percent of U.S. GDP. According to Meredith Whitney, the municipal bond crisis that we are facing is a gigantic threat to our financial system….

“It has tentacles as wide as anything I’ve seen. I think next to housing this is the single most important issue in the United States and certainly the largest threat to the U.S. economy.”

Former Los Angeles mayor Richard Riordan is convinced that things are so bad that literally 90% of our states and cities could go bankrupt over the next five years….

#11 Of course on top of everything else, the quadrillion dollar derivatives bubble could burst at any time. Right now we are watching the greatest financial casino in the history of the globe spin around and around and around and everyone is hoping that at some point it doesn’t stop. Today, most money on Wall Street is not made by investing in good business ideas. Rather, most money on Wall Street is now made by making the best bets. Unfortunately, at some point the casino is going to come crashing down and the game will be over.

#12 The biggest wildcard of all is war. The Korean peninsula came closer to war in 2010 than it had in decades. The Middle East could literally explode at any time. We live in a world where a single weapon can take out an entire city in an instant. All it would take is a mid-size war or a couple of weapons of mass destruction to throw the entire global economy into absolute turmoil.

Once again, let us hope that none of these economic collapse scenarios happens in 2011.

However, we have got to realize that we can’t keep dodging these bullets forever.

As bad as 2010 was, the truth is that it went about as good as any of us could have hoped. Things are still pretty stable and times are still pretty good right now.

But instead of using these times to “party”, we should be using them to prepare.

A really, really vicious economic storm is coming and it is going to be a complete and total nightmare. Get ready, hold on tight, and say your prayers.’

Poor Recovery: The Problem Is Institutional [ Well it’s true that the problem is institutional as in pervasively corrupt, incompetent, nonproductive in real terms relative to their cost / damage (still no pros on the wall street fraud which is ongoing in terms of the last crisis, the worthless paper marked to anything, and the current bubble fraud that’s high-frequency computerized churn-and-earn high-frequency commissioned / sold into, 360 tons of $100 bills disappear in Iraq, etc.. What do they get paid for?) ( Peter Schiff: Washington a parasite to economy ‘US foreclosures hit record highs in 2010, but that may not be the worst of it. 2011 may be even worse. Meanwhile, JP Morgan Chase exceeded market expectations, announcing a 47% rise in quarterly profits and released details on a $28.1 billion pay and bonus pool. Peter Schiff, the President of Euro Pacific Capital said Washington and Wall Street are becoming one force and are sucking the underlying American dry like a parasite’.); but the problem is structural, as in transfer of jobs, industries, etc. (among the sources of the huge over-compensation to wall street, company executives), never to return in any meaningful sense; and as in the defacto bankruptcy of the nation with insurmountable record debt / deficits or stated another way, broke. Unlike in the past, once beyond the propaganda, rhetoric, and smoke and mirrors / obfuscation, there is no prospective way for america to grow its way out, nor are there funds in real money with which to do it. Quite simply, america’s broke / bankrupt in every which way. ] Loundsbury ‘Harold Meyerson, Op Ed Columnist at The Washington Post, has hit the nail right on the head, in the opinion of GEI. Meyerson says the debate about whether the recession and poor recovery is a cyclical problem or a structural problem is misguided. He says the problem is institutional - - - and is he ever right!

In a column last week, Myerson points out that the devastation of The Great Recession has fallen disproportionately on the blue collar population, those without a college degree. And he traces the rolling over of median family income in this century, not just in the downturn, but since the turn of the century. Even at the peak, in 2007, median family income was less than in 2000.

What Meyerson doesn't point out is that average incomes have faired better in the 21st century and in all of the past 50 years. In fact, average family income has risen more than 2.5 times as much and median income over the last 30 years. Why is this important? Because the more there is a fat tail of ever higher incomes for a few, the greater the difference between average and median income becomes.

Myerson says:

The great sociologist William Julius Wilson has long argued that the key to the unraveling of the lives of the African American poor was the decline in the number of "marriageable males" as work disappeared from the inner city. Much the same could now be said of working-class whites in neighborhoods that may not look like the ghettos of Cleveland or Detroit but in which productive economic activity is increasingly hard to find.

This grim new reality has yet to inform our debate over how to come back from this mega-recession. Those who believe our downturn is cyclical argue that job-creating public spending can restore us to prosperity, while those who believe it's structural - that we have too many carpenters, say, and not enough nurses - believe that we should leave things be while American workers acquire new skills and enter different lines of work. But there's a third way to look at the recession: that it's institutional, that it's the consequence of the decisions by leading banks and corporations to stop investing in the job-creating enterprises that were the key to broadly shared prosperity.

Since Meyerson has chosen income disparity as a cornerstone of his argument, let's look at how incomes have grown over the last 50 years. These are shown in the following graph, not adjusted for inflation.

click to enlarge images [chart]

Real median income and average income seem to grow similarly in the 1950s and 1960s, the growth of average income starts to pull away in the mid-1960s and appears to continue to gain gound for the the next 40+ years. The more average income deviates from median income the more money is found in the high income tail on the distribution curve. This is often called a "fat tail", which is very appropriate in this discussion because that is where the fat cats are. The fat tail has not gotten so because ten times as many people equaled the incomes of the former fat cats, but more because a few fat cats have received 10 times the income. This is exemplified by the often quoted statistic that average CEO salaries were 40x average worker pay 50 years ago and today are more like 400x.

The change income distribution that seems to be appearing in the above graph becomes more apparent in the following graph where real income gains are shown for the last six decades starting with the ten years from 1949 - 1959 (the 1950s) and ending with 1999 - 2009 (the 2000s). [chart]

The 1950s and 60s were real boom years. Starting with the 1970s a lower level of income growth was established, but even that lower level could not be maintained in the 2000s.

After the 1950s every decade has seen average real income grow more than the median. The fat tail has gotten fatter over the past half century in every decade, without exception. Yes the average did decline in the 2000s, but the median declined 76% more!

The most dramatic pattern of change is evident when the data is divided into two halves: 1949 to 1979 and 1979 - 2009. This is done in the following graph: [chart]

For thirty years after World War II the wealth of the country increased in a balanced manner. The average income containing the greater contribution from the top earners of the day, grew at a rate very similar to the income growth of the broader population, represented by the median.

Yes there were "fat cats" and they had significantly larger incomes than the bulk of the population. And these top incomes grew over those three decades, but at almost the same rate as the majority of the populace.

Then something happened. From 1979-2009 it appears that the American pie suddenly got smaller. In the later three decades the real median income growth was less than 10% of the rate seen from 1949 to 1979. And as the pie got smaller, the fat cats took a much larger share. The average income grew at a rate 254% that of the median income. You might say that, as the cow gave less milk, the top of the economic ladder skimmed more and more cream off the top.

Meyerson identifies the force majuere to be corporate America:

Our multinational companies still invest, of course - just not at home. A study by the Business Roundtable and the U.S. Council Foundation found that the share of the profits of U.S.-based multinationals that came from their foreign affiliates had increased from 17 percent in 1977 and 27 percent in 1994 to 48.6 percent in 2006. As the companies' revenue from abroad has increased, their dependence on American consumers has diminished. The equilibrium among production, wages and purchasing power - the equilibrium that Henry Ford famously recognized when he upped his workers' pay to an unheard-of $5 a day in 1913 so they could afford to buy the cars they made, the equilibrium that became the model for 20th-century American capitalism - has been shattered. Making and selling their goods abroad, U.S. multinationals can slash their workforces and reduce their wages at home while retaining their revenue and increasing their profits. And that's exactly what they've done.

Meyerson doesn't get into some of the other areas that might be brought to bear on the current condition of the American economy:

He doesn't address the fact that the U.S. ranks below some third world countries in education.
He doesn't discuss the increasing burden of health care, both because costs have been running out of control and because an ever increasing portion of the population is kept from making the contribution they might have otherwise because of poor health.
He doesn't discuss the capture of much potential domestic capital by financial engineers who find it much easier to get rich in a rigged casino than to make money the old fashioned way.

Part of the problem is that Americans have fallen into the way of the easiest path, where, either by credit card or by making quick trades, the desires of the moment are satisfied with no seemingly current cost.

It seems that few want to think about the needs of tomorrow. This is true starting with the masses who kiss off the idea of working hard in school to prepare for what they will need 20 years down the road. This is also true of the "capitalist" who finds that skimming a few percent off each of many deals a year to get quick, large quarterly returns is much easier than investing and building something that will will make much larger returns extending over decades and producing things of real economic utility.

There are a number of things that Meyerson does not address, but if you want to hit one nail at a time, I think he has picked the baddest nail in the plank. He finishes his column thusly:

Our economic woes, then, are not simply cyclical or structural. They are also - chiefly - institutional, the consequence of U.S. corporate behavior that has plunged us into a downward cycle of underinvestment, underemployment and under-consumption. Our solutions must be similarly institutional, requiring, for starters, the seating of public and worker representatives on corporate boards. Short of that, there will be no real prospects for reversing America's downward mobility.

If we were to address all the other issues I mentioned previously and did not address the institutional problem Meterson has identified, we would not ultimately solve our economic puzzle.’

20 Shocking New Economic Records That Were Set In 2010 2010 was quite a year, wasn’t it? 2010 will be remembered for a lot of things, but for those living in the United States, one of the main things that last year will be remembered for is economic decline…The Economic Collapse Jan 14, 2011 ‘2010 was quite a year, wasn’t it? 2010 will be remembered for a lot of things, but for those living in the United States, one of the main things that last year will be remembered for is economic decline. The number of foreclosure filings set a new record, the number of home repossessions set a new record, the number of bankruptcies went up again, the number of Americans that became so discouraged that they simply quit looking for work reached a new all-time high and the number of Americans on food stamps kept setting a brand new record every single month. Meanwhile, U.S. government debt reached record highs, state government debt reached record highs and local government debt reached record highs. What a mess! In fact, even many of the “good” economic records that were set during 2010 were indications of underlying economic weakness. For example, the price of gold set an all-time record during 2010, but one of the primary reasons for the increase in the price of gold was that the U.S. dollar was rapidly losing value. Most Americans had been hoping that 2010 would be the beginning of better times, but unfortunately economic conditions just kept getting worse.

So will things improve in 2011? That would be nice, but at this point there are not a whole lot of reasons to be optimistic about the economy. The truth is that we are trapped in a period of long-term economic decline and we are now paying the price for decades of horrible decisions.

Amazingly, many of our politicians and many in the mainstream media have declared that “the recession is over” and that the U.S. economy is steadily improving now.

Well, if anyone tries to tell you that the economy got better in 2010, just show them the statistics below. That should shut them up for a while.

The following are 20 new economic records that were set during 2010….

#1 An all-time record of 2.87 million U.S. households received a foreclosure filing in 2010.

#2 The number of homes that were actually repossessed reached the 1 million mark for the first time ever during 2010.

#3 The price of gold moved above $1400 an ounce for the first time ever during 2010.

#4 According to the American Bankruptcy Institute, approximately 1.53 million consumer bankruptcy petitions were filed in 2010, which was up 9 percent from 1.41 million in 2009. This was the highest number of personal bankruptcies we have seen since the U.S. Congress substantially tightened U.S. bankruptcy law several years ago.

#5 At one point during 2010, the average time needed to find a job in the United States had risen to an all-time record of 35.2 weeks.

#6 Back in 1970, 25 percent of all jobs in the United States were manufacturing jobs. Today, only 9 percent of the jobs in the United States are manufacturing jobs, which is believed to be a new record low.

#7 The number of Americans working part-time jobs “for economic reasons” was the highest it has been in at least five decades during 2010.

#8 The number of American workers that are so discouraged that they have given up searching for work reached an all-time high near the end of 2010.

#9 Government spending continues to set new all-time records. In fact, at the moment the U.S. government is spending approximately 6.85 million dollars every single minute.

#10 The number of Americans on food stamps surpassed 43 million by the end of 2010. This was a new all-time record, and government officials fully expect the number of Americans enrolled in the program to continue to increase throughout 2011.

#11 The number of Americans on Medicaid surpassed 50 million for the first time ever in 2010.

#12 The U.S. Census Bureau originally announced that 43.6 million Americans are now living in poverty and according to them that was the highest number of Americans living in poverty that they had ever recorded in 51 years of record-keeping. But now the Census Bureau says that they miscalculated and that the real number of poor Americans is actually 47.8 million.

#13 According to the FDIC, 157 banks failed during 2010. That was the highest number of bank failures that the United States has experienced in any single year during the past decade.

#14 The Federal Reserve brought in a record $80.9 billion in profits during 2010. They returned $78.4 billion of that to the U.S. Treasury, but the real story is that thanks to the Federal Reserve’s continual debasement of our currency, the U.S. dollar was worth less in 2010 than it ever had been before.

#15 It is projected that the major financial firms on Wall Street will pay out an all-time record of $144 billion in compensation for 2010.

#16 Americans now owe more than $881 billion on student loans, which is a new all-time record.

#17 In July, sales of new homes in the United States declined to the lowest level ever recorded.

#18 According to Zillow, U.S. housing prices have now declined a whopping 26 percent since their peak in June 2006. Amazingly, this is even farther than house prices fell during the Great Depression. From 1928 to 1933, U.S. housing prices only fell 25.9 percent.

#19 State and local government debt reached at an all-time record of 22 percent of U.S. GDP during 2010.

#20 The U.S. national debt has surpassed the 14 trillion dollar mark for the first time ever and it is being projected that it will soar well past 15 trillion during 2011.

There are some people that have a hard time really grasping what statistics actually mean. For people like that, often pictures and charts are much more effective. Well, that is one reason I like to include pictures and graphs in many of my articles, and below I have posted my favorite chart from this past year. It shows the growth of the U.S. national debt from 1940 until today. I honestly don’t know how anyone can look at this chart and still be convinced that our nation is not headed for a complete financial meltdown….[chart]

14 Eye Opening Statistics Which Reveal Just How Dramatically The U.S. Economy Has Collapsed Since 2007 Most Americans have become so accustomed to the “new normal” of continual economic decline that they don’t even remember how good things were just a few short years ago. ‘The Economic Collapse Jan 10, 2011

’Most Americans have become so accustomed to the “new normal” of continual economic decline that they don’t even remember how good things were just a few short years ago. Back in 2007, unemployment was very low, good jobs were much easier to get, far fewer Americans were living in poverty or enrolled in welfare programs and government finances were in much better shape. Of course most of this prosperity was fueled by massive amounts of debt, but at least times were better. Unfortunately, things have really deteriorated over the last several years. Since 2007, unemployment has skyrocketed, foreclosures have set new all-time records, personal bankruptcies have soared and U.S. government debt has gotten completely and totally out of control. Poll after poll has shown that Americans are now far less optimistic about the future than they were in 2007. It is almost as if the past few years have literally sucked the hope out of millions upon millions of Americans.

Sadly, our economic situation is continually getting worse. Every month the United States loses more factories. Every month the United States loses more jobs. Every month the collective wealth of U.S. citizens continues to decline. Every month the federal government goes into even more debt. Every month state and local governments go into even more debt.

Unfortunately, things are going to get even worse in the years ahead. Right now we look back on 2005, 2006 and 2007 as “good times”, but in a few years we will look back on 2010 and 2011 as “good times”.

We are in the midst of a long-term economic decline, and the very bad economic choices that we have been making as a nation for decades are now starting to really catch up with us.

So as horrible as you may think that things are now, just keep in mind that things are going to continue to deteriorate in the years ahead.

But for the moment, let us remember how far we have fallen over the past few years. The following are 14 eye opening statistics which reveal just how dramatically the U.S. economy has collapsed since 2007….

#1 In November 2007, the official U.S. unemployment rate was just 4.7 percent. Today, the official U.S. unemployment rate is 9.4 percent.

#2 In November 2007, 18.8% of unemployed Americans had been out of work for 27 weeks or longer. Today that percentage is up to 41.9%.

#3 As 2007 began, there were just over 1 million Americans that had been unemployed for half a year or longer. Today, there are over 6 million Americans that have been unemployed for half a year or longer.

#4 Nearly 10 million Americans now receive unemployment insurance, whichis almost four times as many as were receiving it back in 2007.

#5 More than half of the U.S. labor force (55 percent) has “suffered a spell of unemployment, a cut in pay, a reduction in hours or have become involuntary part-time workers” since the “recession” began in December 2007.

#6 According to one analysis, the United States has lost a total of approximately 10.5 million jobs since 2007.

#7 As 2007 began, only 26 million Americans were on food stamps. Today, an all-time record of 43.2 million Americans are enrolled in the food stamp program.

#8 In 2007, the U.S. government held a total of $725 billion in mortgage debt. As of the middle of 2010, the U.S. government held a total of $5.148 trillion in mortgage debt.

#9 In the year prior to the “official” beginning of the most recent recession in 2007, the IRS filed just 684,000 tax liens against U.S. taxpayers. During 2010, the IRS filed over a million tax liens against U.S. taxpayers.

#10 From the year 2000 through the year 2007, there were 27 bank failures in the United States. From 2008 through 2010, there were 314 bank failures in the United States.

#11 According to the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, the number of U.S. families with children living in homeless sheltersincreased from 131,000 to 170,000 between 2007 and 2009.

#12 In 2007, one poll found that 43 percent of Americans were living “paycheck to paycheck”. Sadly, according to a survey released very close to the end of 2010, approximately 55 percent of all Americans are now living paycheck to paycheck.

#13 In 2007, the “official” federal budget deficit was just 161 billion dollars. In 2010, the “official” federal budget deficit was approximately 1.3 trillion dollars.

#14 As 2007 began, the U.S. national debt was just under 8.7 trillion dollars. Today, the U.S. national debt has just surpassed 14 trillion dollars and it continues to soar into the stratosphere.

So is there any hope that we can turn all of this around?

Unfortunately, the massive amount of debt that we have piled up as a society over the last several decades has made that impossible.

If you add up all forms of debt (government debt, business debt, individual debt), it comes to approximately 360 percent of GDP. It is the biggest debt bubble in the history of the world.

If the federal government and our state governments stop borrowing and spending so much money, our economy would collapse. But if they keep borrowing and spending so much money they will continually make the eventual economic collapse even worse.

We are in the terminal stages of the most horrific debt spiral the world has ever seen, and when the debt spiral gets stopped the house of cards is going to finally come down for good.

So enjoy these times while you still have them. Yes, today is not nearly as prosperous as 2007 was, but today is most definitely a whole lot better than 2015 or 2020 is going to be.

Sadly, we could have avoided this financial disaster completely if only we had listened more carefully to those that founded this nation. Once upon a time, Thomas Jefferson said the following….

I wish it were possible to obtain a single amendment to our Constitution. I would be willing to depend on that alone for the reduction of the administration of our government to the genuine principles of its Constitution; I mean an additional article, taking from the federal government the power of borrowing.’

Tipping Point: 25 Signs That The Coming Financial Collapse Is Now Closer Then Ever The financial collapse that so many of us have been anticipating is seemingly closer then ever. Over the past several weeks, there have been a host of ominous signs for the U.S. economy.

The Economic Collapse
Dec 17, 2010

The financial collapse that so many of us have been anticipating is seemingly closer then ever. Over the past several weeks, there have been a host of ominous signs for the U.S. economy. Yields on U.S. Treasuries have moved up rapidly and Moody’s is publicly warning that it may have to cut the rating on U.S. government debt soon. Mortgage rates are also moving up aggressively. The euro and the U.S. dollar both look incredibly shaky. Jobs continue to be shipped out of the United States at a blistering pace as our politicians stand by and do nothing. Confidence in U.S. government debt around the globe continues to decline. State and local governments that are drowning in debt across the United States are savagely cutting back on even essential social services and are coming up with increasingly “creative” ways of getting more money out of all of us. Meanwhile, tremor after tremor continues to strike the world financial system. So does this mean that we have almost reached a tipping point? Is the world on the verge of a major financial collapse?

Let’s hope not, but with each passing week the financial news just seems to get eve worse. Not only is U.S. government debt spinning wildly toward a breaking point, but many U.S. states (such as California) are in such horrific financial condition that they are beginning to resemble banana republics.

But it is not just the United States that is in trouble. Nightmarish debt problems in Greece, Spain, Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Belgium and several other European nations threaten to crash the euro at any time. In fact, many economists are now openly debating which will collapse first – the euro or the U.S. dollar.

Sadly, this is the inevitable result of constructing a global financial system on debt. All debt bubbles eventually collapse. Currently we are living in the biggest debt bubble in the history of the world, and when this one bursts it is going to be a disaster of truly historic proportions.

So will we reach a tipping point soon? Well, the following are 25 signs that the financial collapse is rapidly getting closer….

#1 The official U.S. unemployment rate has not been beneath 9 percent since April 2009.

#2 According to the U.S. Census Bureau, there are currently 6.3 million vacant homes in the United States that are either for sale or for rent.

#3 It is being projected that the U.S. trade deficit with China could hit 270 billion dollars for the entire year of 2010.

#4 Back in 2000, 7.2 percent of blue collar workers were either unemployed or underemployed. Today that figure is up to 19.5 percent.

#5 The Chinese government has accumulated approximately $2.65 trillion in total foreign exchange reserves. They have drained this wealth from the economies of other nations (such as the United States) and instead of reinvesting all of it they are just sitting on much of it. This is creating tremendous imbalances in the global economy.

#6 Since the year 2000, we have lost 10% of our middle class jobs. In the year 2000 there were approximately 72 million middle class jobs in the United States but today there are only about 65 million middle class jobs.

#7 The United States now employs about the same number of people in manufacturing as it did back in 1940. Considering the fact that we had 132 million people living in this country in 1940 and that we have well over 300 million people living in this country today, that is a very sobering statistic.

#8 According to CoreLogic, U.S. housing prices have now declined for three months in a row.

#9 The average rate on a 30 year fixed rate mortgage soared 11 basis points just this past week. As mortgage rates continue to push higher it is going to make it even more difficult for American families to afford homes.

#10 22.5 percent of all residential mortgages in the United States were in negative equity as of the end of the third quarter of 2010.

#11 The U.S. monetary base has more than doubled since the beginning of the most recent recession.

#12 U.S. Treasury yields have been rising steadily during the 4th quarter of 2010 and recently hit a six-month high.

#13 Incoming governor Jerry Brown is scrambling to find $29 billion more to cut from the California state budget. The following quote from Brown about the desperate condition of California state finances is not going to do much to inspire confidence in California’s financial situation around the globe….

“We’ve been living in fantasy land. It is much worse than I thought. I’m shocked.”

#14 24.3 percent of the residents of El Centro, California are currently unemployed.

#15 The average home in Merced, California has declined in value by 63 percent over the past four years.

#16 Detroit Mayor Dave Bing has come up with a new way to save money. He wants to cut 20 percent of Detroit off from essential social services such as road repairs, police patrols, functioning street lights and garbage collection.

#17 The second most dangerous city in the United States – Camden, New Jersey – is about to lay off about half its police in a desperate attempt to save money.

#18 In 2010, 55 percent of Americans between the ages of 60 and 64 were in the labor market. Ten years ago, that number was just 47 percent. More older Americans than ever find that they have to keep working just to survive.

#19 Back in 1998, the United States had 25 percent of the world’s high-tech export market and China had just 10 percent. Ten years later, the United States had less than 15 percent and China’s share had soared to 20 percent.

#20 The U.S. government budget deficit increased to a whopping $150.4 billion last month, which represented the biggest November budget deficit on record.

#21 The U.S. government is somehow going to have to roll over existing debt and finance new debt that is equivalent to 27.8 percent of GDP in 2011.

#22 The United States had been the leading consumer of energy on the globe for about 100 years, but this past summer China took over the number one spot.

#23 According to an absolutely stunning new poll, 40 percent of all U.S. doctors plan to bail out of the profession over the next three years.

#24 As 2007 began, there were just over 1 million Americans that had been unemployed for half a year or longer. Today, there are over 6 million Americans that have been unemployed for half a year or longer.

#25 All over the United States, local governments have begun instituting “police response fees”. For example, New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg has come up with a plan under which a fee of $365 would be charged if police are called to respond to an automobile accident where no injuries are involved. If there are injuries as a result of the crash that is going to cost extra.

16 Nightmarish Economic Trends To Watch Carefully In 2011 The American Dream Dec 15, 2010 ‘If you only watch the “economic pundits” on television, it can be very confusing to figure out exactly what is happening with the U.S. economy. One pundit will pull out a couple statistics that got a little bit better over the past month and claim that we have entered a time of solid recovery. Another pundit will pull out a couple statistics that got a little worse over the past month and claim that we are headed for trouble. So what is the truth? Well, if you really want to get a clear idea of what is really going on you have to look at the long-term trends. There are some economic trends which just keep getting worse year after year after year, and it is those trends that tell the real story of the decline of our economic system.

As you examine the long-term trends, you quickly come to realize that the U.S. is trapped in an endless spiral of debt, the middle class is being wiped out, the U.S. dollar is being destroyed and America is rapidly becoming a post-industrial wasteland.

Posted below are 16 nightmarish economic trends to watch carefully in 2011. It is becoming exceedingly apparent that unless something is done rapidly we are heading for an economic collapse of unprecedented magnitude….

#1 Do you want to see something scary? Just check out the chart below. Since the beginning of the economic downturn, the U.S. monetary base has more than doubled. But don’t worry – Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has promised us that this could never cause inflation. In fact, Bernanke says that we need to inject even more dollars into the economy. So if you are alarmed by the chart below, you are just being irrational according to Bernanke….

[chart]

#2 Thousands of our factories, millions of our jobs and hundreds of billions of dollars of our national wealth continue to be shipped overseas. In 1985, the U.S. trade deficit with China was 6 million dollars for the entire year. In the month of August alone, the U.S. trade deficit with China was over 28 billion dollars. Nobel economist Robert W. Fogel of the University of Chicago is projecting that the Chinese economy will be three times larger than the U.S. economy by the year 2040 if current trends continue.

#3 The United States is rapidly becoming a post-industrial wasteland. Back in 1959, manufacturing represented 28 percent of all U.S. economic output. In 2008, it represented only 11.5 percent and it continues to fall. Sadly, the truth is that America is being deindustrialized. As of the end of 2009, less than 12 million Americans worked in manufacturing. The last time that less than 12 million Americans were employed in manufacturing was in 1941.

#4 The number of Americans that have been out of work for an extended period of time has absolutely exploded over the last few years. As 2007 began, there were just over 1 million Americans that had been unemployed for half a year or longer. Today, there are over 6 million Americans that have been unemployed for half a year or longer.

#5 The middle class continues to be squeezed out of existence. According to a poll taken in 2009, 61 percent of Americans ”always or usually” live paycheck to paycheck. That was up substantially from 49 percent in 2008 and 43 percent in 2007.

#6 The number of Americans living in poverty is absolutely skyrocketing. 42.9 million Americans are now on food stamps, and one out of every six Americans is now enrolled in at least one anti-poverty program run by the federal government. Unfortunately, many of those that have been hardest hit by this economic downturn have been children. According to one new study, approximately 21 percent of all children in the United States are living below the poverty line in 2010 - the highest rate in 20 years.

#7 Many American families have been pushed beyond the breaking point during this economic downturn. Over 1.4 million Americans filed for personal bankruptcy in 2009, which represented a 32 percent increase over 2008. The final number for 2010 is expected to be even higher.

#8 The U.S. real estate market continues to stagnate. During the third quarter of 2010, 67 percent of mortgages in Nevada were “underwater”, 49 percent of mortgages in Arizona were “underwater” and 46 percent of mortgages in Florida were “underwater”. So what happens if home prices go down even more?

#9 More elderly Americans than ever are being forced to put off retirement and continue working. In 2010, 55 percent of Americans between the ages of 60 and 64 were in the labor market. Ten years ago, that number was just 47 percent. Unfortunately, it looks like this problem will only get worse in the years ahead. In America today, approximately half of all workers have less than $2000 saved up for retirement.

#10 In the United States today, there are simply far too many retirees and not nearly enough workers to support them. Back in 1950 each retiree’s Social Security benefit was paid for by 16 workers. Today, each retiree’s Social Security benefit is paid for by approximately 3.3 workers. By 2025 it is projected that there will be approximately two workers for each retiree.

#11 Financial assets continue to become concentrated in fewer and fewer hands. For example, the “big four” U.S. banks (Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and Wells Fargo) had approximately 22 percent of all deposits in FDIC-insured institutions back in 2000. As of the middle of 2009 that figure was up to 39 percent.

#12 The Federal Reserve has been destroying the value of the U.S. dollar for decades. Since the Federal Reserve was created in 1913, the U.S. dollar has lost over 95 percent of its purchasing power. An item that cost $20.00 in 1970 would cost you $112.35 today. An item that cost $20.00 in 1913 would cost you $440.33 today.

#13 Commodity prices continue to soar into the stratosphere. Ten years ago, the price of a barrel of oil hovered around 20 to 30 dollars most of the time. Today, the price of oil is rapidly closing in on 100 dollars a barrel and there are now fears that it could soon go much higher than that.

#14 Federal government spending is completely and totally out of control. The U.S. government budget deficit increased to a whopping $150.4 billion last month, which represented the biggest November deficit on record. But our politicians can’t seem to break their addiction to debt. In fact, Democrats are trying to ram through a 1,924 page, 1.1 trillion dollar spending bill in the final days of the lame-duck session of Congress before the Republicans take control of the House of Representatives next year.

#15 The U.S. national debt is rapidly closing in on 14 trillion dollars. It is more than 13 times larger than it was just 30 short years ago. According to an official U.S. Treasury Department report to Congress, the U.S. national debt is projected to climb to an estimated $19.6 trillion by 2015.

#16 Unfortunately, the official government numbers grossly understate the horrific nature of the crisis we are facing. John Williams of Shadow Government Statistics has calculated that if the federal government would have used GAAP accounting standards to measure the federal budget deficit for 2009, it would have been approximately 8.8 trillion dollars. Not only that, but John Williams now says that U.S. government debt is so wildly out of control that it is mathematically impossible for us to “grow” our way out of it….

The government’s finances not only are out of control, but the actual deficit is not containable. Put into perspective, if the government were to raise taxes so as to seize 100% of all wages, salaries and corporate profits, it still would be showing an annual deficit using GAAP accounting on a consistent basis. In like manner, given current revenues, if it stopped spending every penny (including defense and homeland security) other than for Social Security and Medicare obligations, the government still would be showing an annual deficit. Further, the U.S. has no potential way to grow out of this shortfall.

The more one examines the U.S. economic situation, the more depressing it becomes. The U.S. financial system is trapped inside a horrific debt spiral and we are headed straight for economic oblivion.

If our leaders attempt to interrupt the debt spiral it will plunge our economy into a depression. If our leaders attempt to keep the debt spiral going for several more years it will just make the eventual crash even worse. Either way, we are headed for a financial implosion that will be truly historic.

The debt-fueled good times that we have been enjoying for the last several decades are rapidly coming to an end. Unfortunately for the tens of millions of Americans that are already suffering, our economic problems are only going to get worse in the years ahead.’

Jobless Recovery?: 25 Unemployment Statistics That Are Almost Too Depressing To Read ‘… Unemployment is up again! That’s right – even though Wall Street is swimming in cash and the Obama administration is declaring that “the recession is over”, the U.S. unemployment rate has gone even higher. So are you enjoying the jobless recovery? Economic Collapse Blog Dec 4, 2010 ‘Guess what? Unemployment is up again! That’s right – even though Wall Street is swimming in cash and the Obama administration is declaring that “the recession is over”, the U.S. unemployment rate has gone even higher ... Times are really, really tough and unfortunately the long-term outlook is very bleak. We should have compassion on those who are out of work right now, because soon many of us may join them.

The following are 25 unemployment statistics that are almost too depressing to read….

#1 According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the U.S. unemployment rate for November was 9.8 percent. This was up from 9.6 percent in October, and it continues a trend of depressingly high unemployment rates. The official unemployment number has been at 9.5 percent or higher for well over a year at this point.

#2 In November 2006, the “official” U.S. unemployment rate was just 4.5 percent.

#3 Most economists had been expecting the U.S. economy to add about 150,000 jobs in November. Instead, it only added 39,000.

#4 In the United States today, there are over 15 million people who are “officially” considered to be unemployed for statistical purposes. But everyone knows that the “real” number is even much larger than that.

#5 As 2007 began, there were just over 1 million Americans that had been unemployed for half a year or longer. Today, there are over 6 million Americans that have been unemployed for half a year or longer.

#6 The number of “persons not in the labor force” in the United States recently set another new all-time record.

#7 It now takes the average unemployed American over 33 weeks to find a job.

#8 When you throw in “discouraged workers” and “underemployed workers”, the “real” unemployment rate in the state of California is actually about 22 percent.

#9 In America today there are not nearly enough jobs for everyone. In fact, there are now approximately 5 unemployed Americans for every single job opening.

#10 According to The New York Times, Americans that have been unemployed for five weeks or less are three times more likely to find a new job in the coming month than Americans that have been unemployed for over a year.

#11 The U.S. economy would need to create 235,120 new jobs a month to get the unemployment rate down to pre-recession levels by 2016. Does anyone think that there is even a prayer that is going to happen?

#12 There are 9 million Americans that are working part-time for “economic reasons”. In other words, those Americans would gladly take full-time jobs if they could get them, but all they have been able to find is part-time work.

#13 In 2009, total wages, median wages, and average wages all declined in the United States.

#14 As of the end of 2009, less than 12 million Americans worked in manufacturing. The last time that less than 12 million Americans were employed in manufacturing was in 1941.

#15 The United States has lost at least 7.5 million jobs since the recession began.

#16 Today, only about 40 percent of Ford Motor Company’s 178,000 workers are employed in North America, and a big percentage of those jobs are in Canada and Mexico.

#17 In 1959, manufacturing represented 28 percent of U.S. economic output. In 2008, it represented 11.5 percent.

#18 Earlier this year, one poll found that 28% of all American households had at least one member that was looking for a full-time job.

#19 In the United States today, over 18,000 parking lot attendants have college degrees.

#20 The United States has lost a staggering 32 percent of its manufacturing jobs since the year 2000.

#21 As the employment situation continues to stagnate, millions of American families have decided to cut back on things such as insurance coverage. For example, the percentage of American households that have life insurance coverage is at its lowest level in 50 years.

#22 Unless Congress acts, and there is no indication that is going to happen, approximately 2 million Americans will stop receiving unemployment checks over the next couple of months.

#23 A poll that was released by the Pew Research Center back in June discovered that an astounding 55 percent of the U.S. labor force has experienced either unemployment, a pay decrease, a reduction in hours or an involuntary move to part-time work since the economic downturn began.

#24 According to Richard McCormack, the United States has lost over 42,000 factories (and counting) since 2001.

#25 In the United States today, 317,000 waiters and waitresses have college degrees.

But this is what we get for creating the biggest debt bubble in the history of the world. For decades we have been digging a deeper hole for ourselves by going into increasingly larger amounts of debt. In America today, our entire economy is based on debt. Even our money is debt. We were fools if we ever thought this could go on forever. Just think about it. Have you ever gone out and run up a bunch of debt? It can be a lot of fun sitting behind the wheel of a new car, running your credit cards up to the limit and buying a beautiful big house that you cannot afford. But in the end what happens? It always catches up with you. Well, our collective debt is starting to catch up with us. There is a sea of red ink on every level of American society. It is only a matter of time before it destroys our economy. IF YOU THINK THAT THINGS ARE BAD NOW, JUST WAIT. THINGS ARE GOING TO GET A WHOLE LOT WORSE. A HORRIFIC ECONOMIC COLLAPSE IS COMING, AND IT IS GOING TO BE VERY, VERY PAINFUL.’

Howard Davidowitz on the Economy: "Here Are the Numbers ... WE'RE BROKE!" 11-25-10 ‘The U.S. economy "is a complete disaster," Howard Davidowitz declared here in July, the most recent in a string of dire predictions from Tech Ticker's most entertaining guest.On the eve of Thanksgiving, I asked Davidowitz if he had any regrets, or was ready to throw in the towel given recent signs of economic revival. Are you kidding me? "Here are the numbers...we're broke," Davidowitz declares, noting the U.S. government goes $5 billion deeper into debt every day and is facing $1 trillion-plus annual deficits for the next decade. "In other words, we're bankrupt."As with the economy, Davidowitz is unwaveringly consistent in his views on President Obama, calling him "deranged, dysfunctional and discredited."Results of the midterm election show "the people of this country think we are in a catastrophe," he says. "I'm with them."Check the accompanying video for more of Howard's unfettered opinions and stay tuned for additional clips from this interview. And...Happy Thanksgiving! Aaron Task is the host of Tech Ticker. You can follow him on Twitter at @atask or email him at altask@yahoo.com’

Timid Tuesday: Is it Safe? Davis ‘… This is how we pay off our current debts and I think bondholders are simply happy to get anything out of a country that admits it owes $15Tn (1/4 of global GDP) but probably owes closer to $60Tn (entire global GDP) in the form of unfunded liabilities. The funniest thing about this (and you have to laugh) is to see Conservative pundits get on TV and talk about how we need to cut $100Bn worth of discretionary spending to "fix" this (while continuing to spend $1Tn on the military and $1Tn on tax cuts for the top 1% each year). There is no fixing this and even a Republican said you can’t fool all of the people all of the time. THIS HOUSE OF CARDS IS TEETERING FOLKS – PLEASE BE CAREFUL OUT THERE! ‘

17 Things Worrying Investors Lloyd's Wall of Worry

Worry Count: 17

CHINA: 1,330,044,605 people can’t be wrong.

The PIIGS: Fasten your seatbelts. It’s gonna be a long, bumpy, expensive, weird, (insert your own adjective here) freak show of a ride.

CALIFORNIA AND THE OTHER 49 STATES: Not yet as dire as “The PIIGS”. Might I suggest the classier moniker of “The Prosciuttos” for the American basket-case states?

QE II: Gobble?

U.S. ECONOMY: The “Punky Brewster” of the global economic landscape.

UNEMPLOYMENT: Only thing worse than losing your job, losing your unemployment check. At least there’s the holiday season to cheer everyone up (read: heavy sarcasm).

TAXES: Praying to the Financial Market Gods that we don’t have another TARP-like vote fiasco.

OBAMA ADMINISTRATION PART II: Still two years before the Pres. election and the peanut gallery is already pleading for a Hail Mary Pass to get them back in the game.

HFT: Instead of beating up these liquidity supplying traders, let’s honor them with their very own stock exchange. But wait -- with no retail saps to pick-off they will never get that Day 1 opening bell tick. Perfect.

XMAS 2010: As my professor friend Nick says, “Nowadays Americans are dining off of two menus – The Million Dollar and the $0.99 Cent.” And both are pissed about it.

CURRENCIES: Poor Mr. Greenback. Does someone need a hug?

HOUSING CRISIS: Price Stabilization – Are we there yet? Just a little bit more. Are we there yet? Just a little bit more. Are we there yet? Just a little bit more….

INFLATION/DEFLATION: Fed Chief Ben B. comes out swinging from his heels in defense of inflation promotion. Don’t punch yourself out as this one is likely to go the distance.

COMMODITIES: Corrected but still sky high; fortunately these prices are only affecting core, basic, life-sustaining necessities and sparing our electronic gadgets and plus-sized SUVs. Whew!

INSIDER TRADING: Another black eye for Hedge Funds. I estimate that makes black eye number 6,597.

INTEREST RATES: South Korea and China slowly turning up the dial to “11”. On the other hand the U.S. has removed the dial altogether. This never ends well….

NORTH KOREA: Here we go again. (and now Egypt, etc.)

Consumer confidence down, LiveLeak.com - Loonie closes above U.S. dollar … dollar for first time closes below parity on Canadian loonie … hey, hey, hey … 'Huge' stock decline — but not yet MarketWatch - Brimelow ‘Commentary: Adens … ‘mega trend’ looks grim … The Adens expect a hyperinflationary collapse … ‘ Oh come on! Manipulated dollar decline with inflated earnings, stock prices thereby, etc., … we’ve seen this all before … the last few crashes … Jobless rate jumps to 9.8% as hiring slows (Washington Post) [ The reality is not a mystery! The nation’s been thrown under the bus for the greater good (wealth) of the very few (frauds on wall street, etc.); wall street giving out record bonuses from their accomplished fraud (with no-recession b.s. bernanke help) of $144 BILLION: Come on! This is gettin’ even more downright ridiculous (if that’s even possible)! Pending home foreclosure / distress sales up, oil prices (and oil stocks) up, debased dollar down, plus a little familiar ‘better than expected’ thrown in along with prospects of a ‘no-recession bernanke’ market-frothing bull session on 60 minutes and, voila, suckers’ rally into the close to keep the suckers suckered! What’s good for the frauds on wall street is bad for just about everyone else which includes the vast majority of people and businesses, domestically and globally, as current dollar manipulation / debasement ultimately results in higher costs and loss of purchasing power (ie., oil, etc.). Clearly, this is one of those fraudulent wealth transfers to the frauds on wall street et als which will ultimately be paid for by those who least are in a position to afford it, courtesy of the ever more worthless Weimar dollar, etc., inflating earnings, eps, lowering p/e multiples, etc., see infra. This is an especially great time to sell / take profits while you can since there's much worse to come! Previous: Rosy numbers on consumer sentiment, unemployment (far better than private forecasts) from the government prior to the holiday so-called ‘shop till you drop’? How can anyone believe anything they say? Najerian interviewed by Motek chimes in with the reason for good retail cheer; viz., people have stopped paying their mortgages and are using the funds to purchase retail goods; while Davidowitz adds that with record numbers of americans on food stamps, real unemployment at 17+, and wall street giving out record bonuses from their accomplished fraud (with no-recession b.s. bernanke help) of $144 BILLION … the high end stores / jewelers will do well … daaaaah! And, with insiders and wall street frauds selling into the bubble as preceded last crash, this is an especially great opportunity to sell / take profits! Suckers’ rally on light volume, full moon, and government complicity (false data / reports) to keep suckers suckered (easy for the wall street frauds to do with just a mouse click / push of the button – and, they know all those technical trade lines that are easy to program in this current phase of the scam/fraud with the debased dollar). Keep in mind, the totally mindless blather from the ‘cottage industries’ of and fraudulent wall street itself in talking up lower P/E multiples when the same is a direct result of the debasement of the dollar and the consequent manipulation / translation (not real, see Davis, infra) which preceded the financial crisis / last crash. Unemployment, trade, deficit, etc., numbers continue decidedly worse than expected along with other negative data (and in the ‘wrong direction’, that spin accorded ‘down but not as bad as before’ b*** s*** ) yet the market has rallied like no tomorrow with used home foreclosure / distressed sales, though abated owing to ‘foreclosuregate’, the other ‘heralded’ good news. Moreover, the dumbo lemmings of Europe have jumped on the fraudulent defacto bankrupt american crazy train propelled to the precipice also as if no tomorrow. This is about keeping the suckers sucked in with the help of a market-frothing pre-election debased dollar for favorable currency translation and paper (but not real when measured in, ie., gold, etc.) profits which preceded the last crisis, inflating a bubble as in the last crisis to facilitate the churn-and-earn, particularly with computerized (and high frequency) trades and which commissions they’ll get again on the way down. There is nothing to support these overbought stock prices, fundamentally or otherwise. These are desperate criminals ‘at work’. Even wall street shill, the senile Buffett is saying we’re still in a recession (depression) [ Davis: ‘… all profits are inflated by 10% (from falling, debased dollar) and that 10% is the E that gets divided from the P and gives us a much better price/multiple to hang our hats on and that gets investors to BUYBUYBUY …’ The bull market that never was / were beyond wall street b.s. when measured in gold ] This is a great opportunity to sell / take profits (these lower dollar, hyperinflationary currency manipulations / translations to froth paper stocks will end quite badly as in last crash)! This is a global depression. This is a secular bear market in a global depression. The past up moves were manipulated bull (s***) cycles (at best) in a secular bear market. This has been a typically manipulated bubble as has preceded the prior crashes with great regularity that the wall street frauds and insiders commission and sell into. This is a typical wall street ‘programmed computerized high-frequency churn and earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud as in prior crashes ( widely reported, high-frequency trading routinely accounts for more than 50% of daily U.S. equity trading volume and regularly approaches 70%. )’. This national decline, economic and otherwise, will not end until justice is served and the wall street frauds et als are criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed.The Stock Market's Long Decline Has Begun Smith ]

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http://www.albertpeia.com/currentopics2ndqtr10108.htm
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http://www.albertpeia.com/alresume.htm

http://www.albertpeia.com/wallstreetlunacy2ndqtr10108.htm

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Al Peia's Blog

Tuesday, February 15, 2011

February 14, 2011 posts

Business / Economic / Financial

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Hosni Mubarak resigns: Switzerland to freeze assets of ousted ruler Switzerland has announced it was freezing assets in the country owned by newly resigned President Hosni Mubarak of Egypt.

The Faulty Economic Model Behind America’s Support for Dictators (Instead of Democracies) It is obvious that America has long supported dictators, instead of democracies, in developing countries.

Fannie, Freddie bailout: $153 billion … and counting When the dust settles, the federal bailout of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will be the most expensive government rescue of the financial crisis — it already stands at $153 billion and counting.

France wants new global finance system France will help the transition to a global financial system based on ‘several international currencies’, the French Economy Minister said today.

Worst Freeze In 60 Years Wipes Out Entire Crops Across The Southwestern U.S. And Northern Mexico Get ready to pay a lot more for produce at the supermarket. In early February the worst freeze in 60 yearswiped out entire crops all across the southwestern U.S. and northern Mexico.

Roubini’s Next Crisis Is Scary Food for Thought Forget Egypt for a moment. Skip the water crisis in China. Look past angst on the streets of Bangladesh. If you want to see how extreme the effects of surging food prices are becoming, look to wealthy Japan.

UN: Escalating food prices leading to civil unrest In January, world food prices hit a record high. The Associated Press reports that escalating food prices is related to civil unrest.

China overtakes Japan as world’s second-largest economy China has leapfrogged Japan to become the world’s second-largest economy, a title Japan has held since 1968.

Obama Pencils In $37 Billion Budget Increase For DHS, Naked Body Scanners Steve Watson | No austerity measures to deal with for the bloated security theatre overlords

France joins China in effort for end of the dollar RTE | France will help the transition to a global financial system based on ‘several international currencies.’

Neocons Target Ron Paul After CPAC Poll Win Kurt Nimmo | Paul has stood tall against the neocon version of U.S. foreign policy.

Terrorist Who Trained London Bombers Was Working For US Government Paul Joseph Watson | Listen up Glenn Beck: “Radical Islam” is a creature of the US military-industrial complex

Was Judge John Roll the actual target of the Giffords shooting? Ethan A. Huff | Judge Roll was considered by some to be one of the most constitutionally-centered judges in history.

Ron Paul to U.S. Government: Stop Propping Up Dictators CNN | Ron Paul speaks with Wolf Blitzer on Egypt and the GOP nomination during the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC).

Conning Slaves Becky Akers | Boobus Americanus happily hugs his chains so long as his masters feign that he’s in charge.

21 Signs That The Once Great U.S. Economy Is Being Gutted The Economic Collapse | The United States is rapidly being turned into a “post-industrial” wasteland.

Engineered Economic Collapse Approaching Eric Blair | Fiscal conservatives still use the debt as a tool of fear to make budget cuts.

Report: Mubarak in coma, no decision on move to hospital Egyptian newspaper al-Masry al-Youm reported that deposed Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak has been in a coma since Saturday, quoting “well-informed sources.”

Egypt’s new military regime to effectively outlaw strikes CAIRO – Egypt’s new military rulers will issue a warning on Monday against anyone who creates “chaos and disorder,” an army source said.

Gaddafi tells Palestinians: revolt against Israel Palestinian refugees should capitalise on the wave of popular revolts in the Middle East by massing peacefully on the borders of Israel until it gives in to their demands, Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi said on Sunday.

Algeria shuts down internet and Facebook as protest mounts Internet providers were shut down and Facebook accounts deleted across Algeria on Saturday as thousands of pro-democracy demonstrators were arrested in violent street demonstrations.

Algeria Internet Not Shut Down, According To Renesys Analysis Internet intelligence authority Renesys, whichconfirmed the Egypt outage weeks ago, says in a new blog post that it has no evidence that Algeria’s Internet has been shut down.

Dear Glenn Beck, Egypt Destabilization-Op Hatched by Globalists, Not Communists Alex Jones breaks down the real factors behind Egypt’s uprising in a special video report where he rebuffs the theories of Glenn Beck, who tries to link the Muslim Brotherhood to radical socialism in the United States.

] earned many billions of dollars [ at whose expense ], which in a sense was both a scorecard and acknowledgment of my abilities [ to fool most of the people, all of the time. ] ."

Tipping Point: 25 Signs That The Coming Financial Collapse Is Now Closer Then Ever The financial collapse that so many of us have been anticipating is seemingly closer then ever. Over the past several weeks, there have been a host of ominous signs for the U.S. economy.

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