Thursday, May 26, 2011

May 25, 2011

Business / Economic / Financial

[ This link to a somewhat more cumulative blog posts page will precede current days news since most all topics remain current in terms of impact and longer-term effect and can be searched by topical index term more easily. The same is provided since the blog site http://alpeiablog.blogspot.com has just been censored as to size by google which is typical for google as nsa / cia / gov’t shill as more are becoming aware of. The same is true for microsoft, another co. that’s seen their best days and relies on the government to maintain their monopoly. Up to now the better page http://www.scribd.com/alpeia is provided for ease of formatting and clarity thereby while the Washington Post page is the real deal but without formatting http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp- srv/community/mypost/index.html?plckPersonaPage=PersonaComments&plckUserId=alpeia&newspaperUserId=alpeia (Only up to 3-11-11-you must be logged in - (Washington Post) [ Comments COMMENTS ARE CLOSED WHILE WE UPGRADE OUR SYSTEMS ] the comments are no longer archived on their site ) . The following is the cumulative archive of blog posts / topics for 2010 as the new year starts anew (and archived by quarter): http://albertpeia.com/December312010postsarchive.htm or PDF formatted version
http://albertpeia.com/December312010postsarchive.pdf ]


‘Dancing With the Stars’: Season 12 ‘Idol’ names winner in record vote Goodbye Oprah (Washington Post) [ I must admit, never having seen even one of the foregoing shows, the ‘dry heaves / nausea’ factor at even the thought of same may seem, in light of their popularity, less than fair or objective. The truth is that more probable is the ‘deamericanization factor’ that I and I believe the rest of the world is experiencing. I usually don’t comment on entertainment matters; but, a sign of the times is noteworthy. . 24 Signs Of Economic Decline In America ‘The US is in the middle of a devastating long-term economic decline..’ ] States face shortfall for retirees (WP) Public workers’ retirement funds had a gap of $1.26 trillion at the end of fiscal 2009 Study: Affordable rentals scarce (WP) Poll: For Obama, low marks on Afghan war (WP) More Americans disapprove of President Obama’s management of the war in Afghanistan than support it Fuel prices cut into Obama popularity (WP) (The frauds on wall street et als should be criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed), and have used the mideast turmoil to obfuscate their failure. Dave's Daily 'If you can keep interest rates this low this long, its inevitable cheap financing can allow companies to start cobbling each other up. Further Ben's policies allow companies like IBM to sell bonds at 1% and buy back shares with the proceeds (total paper bubble-scam). POMO is occurring almost daily and Primary Dealers can buy back their shares and pay dividends with what essentially is taxpayer money-- … an especially great opportunity to sell / take profits while you still can since there's much worse to come! America Is a Failed State Because It Won’t Prosecute Financial Crime Washington’s Blog / the grim economic reality [ http://albertpeia.com/grimreality.htm ]. Selling In May Is Very Good Advice This Year Harding / April Is a Good Time to Sell Adler Equity Valuations Are Forming the Second Biggest Bubble in U.S. History Kaspar ... According to Yale University’s Dr. Robert Shiller, the market is now 41% overvalued …only time the markets have been more overvalued .. 1929 & tech bubble. http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2011/4/12/saupload_cape_thumb1.png PRECHTER: We're Still In A Massive Bear Market And Stocks Will Crash To New Lows This is an especially great opportunity to sell / take profits while you still can since there's much worse to come! Remember: ‘Sell in May and go away! ‘ … Stock Market: 4 Current Warning Signs Navin ‘…1) The 5-year high in the level of insider corporate stock sales is telling. At 565 sells for every 1 buy, it’s never been higher. Yes, it’s normal for insiders to be selling some of their stocks so they can buy new yachts and some of this is pre-planned. But that ratio — which has spiked recently — is extraordinarily high, one might even say off-the-chart.]

Washington area’s Asian population booms (Washington Post) [ This seems to foreshadow that almost mythical, legendary, prospective ‘long march’ so heralded in Chinese lore (at least the military’s) regarding the final conquest of pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt, and rapidly declining america. I’d say they’re watching ever more closely the ever more worthless american paper they’re holding. Davis ‘This is how we pay off our current debts and I think bondholders are simply happy to get anything out of a country that admits it owes $15Tn (1/4 of global GDP) but probably owes closer to $60Tn (entire global GDP) in the form of unfunded liabilities. The funniest thing about this (and you have to laugh) is to see Conservative pundits get on TV and talk about how we need to cut $100Bn worth of discretionary spending to "fix" this (while continuing to spend $1Tn on the military and $1Tn on tax cuts for the top 1% each year). There is no fixing this and even a Republican said you can’t fool all of the people all of the time. THIS HOUSE OF CARDS IS TEETERING FOLKS – PLEASE BE CAREFUL OUT THERE! ‘ Senate Dems find themselves in a tough spot (WP) [ Tough spot? Like Iraq and a hard place called Afghanistan; indeed they are. [Pakistani troops, NATO helicopters engage in firefight 6th soldier charged in plot to kill Afghan civilians (Washington Post) [ Gen. Hamid Gul: U.S. Generals Provoking War with Pakistan Jones | U.S. intelligence is that bin Laden needs dialysis every 3 days/ http://whatreallyhappened.com/WRHARTICLES/osama_dead.php 5-1-11, JUST MOMENTS BEFORE PRESIDENT OBAMA ANNOUNCED THAT THE US HAD KILLED OSAMA BIN LADEN, THE WHATREALLYHAPPENED WEBSITE CAME UNDER MASSIVE DISTRIBUTED DENIAL OF SERVICE ATTACK. THIS PAGE, WHICH DOCUMENTS THAT OSAMA BIN LADEN ACTUALLY DIED IN DECEMBER OF 2001, APPEARS TO BE WHAT THE WHITE HOUSE DIDN'T WANT AVAILABLE WHILE THE NEW PROPAGANDA WAS "CATAPULTED FORWARD". IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS IS THE OPENING GAMBIT IN A PLAN TO STAGE A "REVENGE" ATTACK FROM "AL QAEDA" ON THE UNITED STATES, WITH WHICH TO JUSTIFY TOTAL WAR ON THE MIDDLE EAST… FLASHBACK: Editorial: US in quagmire War in Afghanistan and Iraq costs America $1trillion Roche 'The worst part of it ...Obama, who vowed change, has done almost nothing to fix any of it and in fact continues most of the policies that helped get us here in the first place’ UPDATE: MORE CLAIMS OF RACE BIAS AT JUSTICE...In emotional and personal testimony, an ex-Justice official who quit over the handling of a voter intimidation case against the New Black Panther Party accused his former employer of instructing attorneys in the civil rights division to ignore cases that involve black defendants and white victims ' Cases against Wall Street lag despite Holder’s vows to target financial fraud WP Obama has promised to hold Wall Street accountable for the meltdown.
THE OBAMA DECEPTION’ http://albertpeia.com/obamadeceptionhighqualityversion.flv ]

Why we read Palin’s tell-all The underlying interest says something more primal than simply our fascination with Mama Grizzly. (Washington Post) [ I’d say it’s more of a curious fascination with the ‘new american dumb’. After all, who can deny the boost she got from SNL’s Tina Fey’s impresarios highlighting same. Yet, in comparison with and juxtaposed to the rest of the Washington field (mccain, bush, wobama, et als), she’s got plenty of cover / camouflage. Send to a friendSarah Palin: Don't pick on Donald Trump Politico - Even though Donald Trump has wholeheartedly embraced the wall-to-wall media coverage that's come with his promotion of the widely discredited “birther” issue, Sarah Palin argued Tuesday that the press is treating him ... Trump's business success claims questioned CBS News ‘…Trump hotels and casinos in Atlantic City have filed for bankruptcy protection three times. While Trump blamed market forces, he has long been chairman of the board for the casino businesses.In his defense, Trump said he "didn't run the company." Isikoff then asked why he was paid $2 million per year to chair the board of that business. Trump replied: "Excuse me. Because I'm a genius, okay."Trump said many different businesses license the use of his name, but he's not directly involved in their operations.Casinos have not been the only weakness in the Trump empire. There have been many high profile bankruptcy filings, bad real estate deals, and a trail of ongoing lawsuits accusing him of bad business practices.Another questionable move was "Trump University," an online, for-profit business education firm. The attorney general in Texas ordered him to stop using the word "university" in its title. Trump said his company was unaware of restrictions on the use of that word.Isikoff also said he asked Trump if he thought the state of Hawaii was lying in regards to Obama being born there, and he did not answer the question. In summation of his experiences that qualify him to be President of the United States, Trump told Isikoff: "My successes...have been vast. I don't even view myself as having failures, and I certainly learned from things that don't work out as well." ‘ As Trump rants, TV ratings slide Tampabay.com Parker: The GOP plays a crazy Trump card (Washington Post) [ I don't know what polls Ms. Parker's referring to; but unless she's referring to mobster trump apprentice news (trump was fired from his own casino company), that certainly doesn't comport with polls I've read. Moreover, like palin, trump's the joke that keeps on giving (for SNL, late-night talk hosts, etc.) ...’ ]

Allan Sloan A Wall Street money maven suggests buying stocks of some large-capitalization U.S. multinational firms. (Washington Post) [ Sorry Mr. Sloan. Your usual right-on perspicuity is a bit off here; certainly in terms of time. That was the strategy in light of the dollar debasement which, along with continued fraud among other manipulations, has created a stock-price bubble almost of unprecedented magnitude (infra). The best advice now comports with that old adage: ‘Sell in May and go away’. This is an especially great opportunity to sell / take profits while you still can since there's much worse to come! Remember: ‘Sell in May and go away! ‘ … Stock Market: 4 Current Warning Signs Navin ‘…1) The 5-year high in the level of insider corporate stock sales is telling. At 565 sells for every 1 buy, it’s never been higher. Yes, it’s normal for insiders to be selling some of their stocks so they can buy new yachts and some of this is pre-planned. But that ratio — which has spiked recently — is extraordinarily high, one might even say off-the-chart. 2) Professor Shiller at Yale figures that the present price-to-earnings ratio for the Standard & Poor’s 500 is in the area of 26. The historical average is about 16. 3) The failure of the financial sector to keep up is a significant negative divergence for the entire market. 4) Key market leaders are rolling over in price...

Global Economy Dying on the Vine Nyaradi ‘The global economy seems to be dying on the vine as more news of economic slowdown pours in every day. The U.S. stock market and ETFs continue to react negatively to deteriorating economic news even as the Federal Reserve bought $6 Billion in their POMO operations yesterday.The DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ are all below their 50 Day Moving Averages while the NASDAQ has also dropped below its 100 Day Moving Average.The NASDAQ and DJIA are now on Point and Figure “Sell” signals, having experienced a Bearish Catapult Breakdown at Tuesday’s close and now has a price target of 12,050.

http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2011/5/25/saupload_djiapf052411.png stockcharts.com, click to enlarge

Richmond Federal Reserve reported a severe drop in activity in the region as the report actually contracted to -6 from a +10 in April. Chinas Purchasing Managers Index declined, Japan is back in recession and Belgium, one of the core countries in the eurozone was issued a credit downgrade warning by the Fitch ratings agency. Spains bond premium to the benchmark German Bund is back to Januarys levels and Greek 10 Year Bonds are a whopping 17% which is clearly unsustainable. Closer to home, Vice President Biden continues to work with Congress towards what theyre labeling a $1 Trillion down payment to avert a government shutdown in August and the Illinois State Treasurer says his state is on the verge of financial disaster. …’ ]

Geithner: ‘Dark forces’ working against overhaul (Washington Post) [ Yeah! And, this was so from the date of ‘tiny tim geithner’s’ appointment, along with other insiders. . Barack Obama: The Naked Emperor Shocking but true revelations from David Icke (a must read) | ‘…He has been covertly funded and supported ever since by the Trilateral Commission and its network of foundations connecting into the Ford Foundation, for whom Obama's mother worked... Does anyone really believe that someone, a 'man of the people', would simply appear from apparently nowhere to run the slickest and best-funded presidential campaign in American history? He was chosen long ago by those who wish to enslave the very people that Obama says he wants to 'set free'. The sources of Obama funding .. - Goldman, UBS, Citi, Credit Suisse, Deutsche, J.P. Morgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, etc. No wonder he went back on his pledge to accept the limitations of public funding … Obama is just more of the same, a big smile with strings attached, and controlled completely by those that chose him, trained him, sold him and provided his record funding, kept his many skeletons under wraps, like the gay sex and crack cocaine .. Larry Sinclair (from affidavit: 1. Who is Ron Allen that claims to be with your Presidential camp, who is alleged to claim that someone claiming to represent me called asking for $100,000, to keep me from coming forward about our (Obama and I) November 1999 encounter of sex and cocaine use?), ... Obama is just another Banksters' moll prostituting himself .., and that's why he supported the grotesque bail-out of the banking system and why he will always put their interests before the people. His financial advisors are straight from the Wall Street 'A' list, … Zionist Tim Geithner (Bilderberg Group, Trilateral Commission, Council on Foreign Relations), was appointed Treasury Secretary, a former employee of both the Council on Foreign Relations and the appalling Kissinger Associates. Obama's Treasury team locks into the inner circle around the Zionist Robert Rubin, Citi, Council on Foreign Relations, and economic advisor to Obama. Rubin, ..Illuminati Bilderberg Group, the man behind Citi's debacle.. rescued by taxpayers' money. The very people who caused the financial crisis .. appointed by Obama .. CIVIL RIGHTS PANEL TO PURSUE FED PROBE IN BLACK PANTHER CASE...In emotional and personal testimony, an ex-Justice official who quit over the handling of a voter intimidation case against the New Black Panther Party accused his former employer of instructing attorneys in the civil rights division to ignore cases that involve black defendants and white victims ...’ Cases against Wall Street lag despite Holder’s vows to target financial fraud Obama has promised to hold Wall Street accountable for the meltdown. ):

‘THE OBAMA DECEPTION’ http://albertpeia.com/obamadeceptionhighqualityversion.flv ]


Global Economy Dying on the Vine Nyaradi The global economy seems to be dying on the vine as more news of economic slowdown pours in every day. The U.S. stock market and ETFs continue to react negatively to deteriorating economic news even as the Federal Reserve bought $6 Billion in their POMO operations yesterday.The DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ are all below their 50 Day Moving Averages while the NASDAQ has also dropped below its 100 Day Moving Average.The NASDAQ and DJIA are now on Point and Figure “Sell” signals, having experienced a Bearish Catapult Breakdown at Tuesday’s close and now has a price target of 12,050.

http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2011/5/25/saupload_djiapf052411.png stockcharts.com, click to enlarge

Yesterday’s economic reports gave the stock market a quick boost at the open when new home sales came in at +7.3% and an annualized rate of 323,000/year which still is at severely depressed levels. But then, the Richmond Federal Reserve reported a severe drop in activity in the region as the report actually contracted to -6 from a +10 in April. China’s Purchasing Manager’s Index declined, Japan is back in recession and Belgium, one of the core countries in the eurozone was issued a credit downgrade warning by the Fitch ratings agency. Spain’s bond premium to the benchmark German Bund is back to January’s levels and Greek 10 Year Bonds are a whopping 17% which is clearly unsustainable. Closer to home, Vice President Biden continues to work with Congress towards what they’re labeling a $1 Trillion down payment to avert a government shutdown in August and the Illinois State Treasurer says his state is on the “verge of financial disaster.” …’

Is the U.S. Worse Off Than Europe? Maierhofer ‘… Deception and naive reporting are as intertwined with the evolution of European dept woes as Feta cheese is to Greek culinary culture. Rarely has this become more obvious than now. Luxembourg's Prime Minister didn't beat around the bush: 'When it becomes serious, you have to lie.' You be the judge whether it is more 'honorable' to omit, deceive, obstruct, misconstrue, or lie (purposely or unintentionally). There are plenty of examples so we can make an educated decision.You shouldn't throw stones if you are sitting in a glass house. This is the case with the United States. The administration has engaged in all kinds of maneuvers and financial alchemy to obstruct the truth and prevent free market forces from expressing themselves. QE2 is the most famous example. Mr. Bernanke is caught in his very own web of financial engineering side effects. Preaching on one hand that QE2 was supposed to inflate assets and create a wealth effect but denying that QE2 has caused wide spread food and energy inflation. Another example is the 'adjustment' of accounting rule 157, demanded and sanctioned by Congress. The 'new and improved' rule 157 allows banks (NYSEArca: KBE) and financial institutions (NYSEArca: XLF) to omit hundreds of billions of toxic assets in an off balance sheet bucket that doesn't affect earnings results …’

[video] Growing Bear Signs for trader

The S&P 500's Lost Decade Short ‘Here is a new update of a chart that illustrates the total return performance of the S&P 500 since the Tech Bubble closing high on March 24, 2000. The chart shows the value of $1000 invested in the index, including dividends, but excluding any taxes or fees, as of May 20th. I've also included the real value using the Consumer Price Index for the inflation adjustment. http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2011/5/25/saupload_sp500_total_20return_on_1000_invested_in_2000_thumb1.png
Click for a larger image I calculated on the returns based on the daily price and daily dividends interpolated from the quarterly dividends as reported by Standard & Poor's. Thus the $1,070 nominal and $809 real values are the hypothetical returns excluding any taxes or fees. For the sake of comparison and to validate the calculation method, we can compare the nominal return in the chart above to Vanguard's 500 Index Investor Fund (VFINX), which has had a return of $1,057. Over the same timeframe The SPY ETF has returned $1,044.We're now over eleven years beyond the S&P 500 2000 high. This little charting exercise gives credence to the frequent reference to a "lost decade" for investors. It also offers support for the wisdom of diversification across asset classes.’

[$$] Another Late-Day Slide for the S&P

This is an especially great opportunity to sell / take profits while you still can since there's much worse to come! Remember: ‘Sell in May and go away! ‘ … El-Erian: “Financial Repression” In the Form of a Negative Real Rate of Return for Savers Is Coming to America Pimco co-chair El-Erian is saying that the major flaws in the financial system will not be addressed, the government will keep on printing money, and that the inflation-adjusted return on investments for most Americans will be negative. Stock Market: 4 Current Warning Signs Navin ‘…1) The 5-year high in the level of insider corporate stock sales is telling. At 565 sells for every 1 buy, it’s never been higher. Yes, it’s normal for insiders to be selling some of their stocks so they can buy new yachts and some of this is pre-planned. But that ratio — which has spiked recently — is extraordinarily high, one might even say off-the-chart. 2) Professor Shiller at Yale figures that the present price-to-earnings ratio for the Standard & Poor’s 500 is in the area of 26. The historical average is about 16. 3) The failure of the financial sector to keep up is a significant negative divergence for the entire market. 4) Key market leaders are rolling over in price...

The Flight into Gold. Rampant Inflation and the Collapsing Dollar System We believe that for the past 2-1/2 years the price of gold has been mainly driven by a flight to quality, as gold vied with the dollar for supremacy, as the world’s reserve currency.

Hedge fund managers pour assets into farmland as doomsday food scenario approaches Going back to the land has always been thought of as a thing for hippies, eco-nuts, and doomsday survivalist, but now hedge fund managers are jumping on the bandwagon too.

CFTC Charges Traders Controlled By World’s Largest Tanker Company With Oil Price Manipulation After Making “Sh**load” Of Money Today’s case of alleged (and rather substantial) commodities manipulation comes courtesy of two veteran BP traders and Norwegian tanker giant Frontline.

Fed’s Duke: “America’s Poor Have To Make A Choice Between Paying Their Gas And Their Mortgage” And another pearl of wisdom from the Fed’s uberthinkers, in this case Elizabeth Duke: “the recent increase in gasoline prices has affected consumer choices in housing and other purchases, big and small.

The Love Police: Report on Banking and Tax Charlie Veitch takes to the streets to protest the corrupt banking infrastructure.

Arguments Regarding the Collapse of the World Trade Center Evaporate Upon Inspection Preface: Now that Bin Laden has been confirmed to be dead, it has been established that Saddam Hussein was not behind 9/11 (one of the main reasons for the Iraq war), and Iran has been accused of having a hand in 9/11 – potentially forming the basis for a war against Iran – it is time to revisit some important, unanswered questions.

9 Ways That The World Has Gotten Even Crazier In May In case you haven’t noticed, the world has gotten even crazier in May. Just when you think that things can’t get any more bizarre, events go to a whole new level.

Top Democrats criticize Obama’s Israel policy Now the president — whom critics often accuse of employing a play-it-safe governing style in which he waits for others to take the lead — is largely isolated politically in raising the issue of 1967 boundaries. (Washington Post) [ What policy … to him, just words … more b***s*** . I’ve thus far refrained from commenting on what I’ve anticipated to be ‘just more of the same’; empty rhetoric. Pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt america makes the wrong choice at every turn, ensuring in every way, decline and fall; self-destructive, self-defeating. Make no mistake, and let me reiterate, that substantially underrated President General Eisenhower would have put American interests first and the current debacle would never have occurred in the first instance … see, ie., http://albertpeia.com , historical documentation, from website: http://www.ameu.org ‘Lest We Forget The Israeli lobby in Washington has successfully influenced the U.S. Congress to give billions of non-repayable dollars each year to Israel on the premise that Israel's loyalty and strategic importance to the United States make it an ally worthy of such unprecedented consideration. Is it ? In his Farewell Address, George Washington warned Americans to avoid a passionate attachment to any one nation because it promotes "the illusion of an imaginary common interest in cases where no real common interest exists." In 1948, U.S. Secretary of Defense James Forrestal, an opponent of the creation of a Jewish state in Palestine, warned that, even though failure to go along with the Zionists might cost President Truman the states of New York, Pennsylvania, and California, it was about time that somebody should pay some consideration to whether we might not lose the United States. Israeli actions over the past 53 years involving U.S. interests in the Middle East seriously challenge the "strategic asset" premise of the Israeli lobby. Some of these actions are compiled in the list that follows: …’ ] Netanyahu lays out vision for Mideast peace (Washington Post) [ Vision? Don’t make me laugh! The guy’s blind; and a ward and provocateur at america’s substantial cost and detriment. ]

Poll: More fear U.S. debt than default Whether or not Congress raises the debt limit, majority of Americans are worried about the consequences. (Washington Post) [ How ‘bout all of the above! “Both Parties And The White House Are Advocating A US Default” Zero Hedge | David Stockman, one of the few voices of fiscal prudence, debated US insolvency.

David Stockman: “Both Parties And The White House Are Advocating A US Default” Last week David Stockman was on Tom Keene, making the usual media rounds (sometimes we marvel at his patience and endurance), as one of the few voices of fiscal prudence available to TV producers who seek to hold a balanced debate on the topic of US insolvency.

Stop Raising the Debt Ceiling Ron Paul | When our creditors finally wise up and cut us off, we will be forced to face economic realities whether we want to or not. Harry Dent: “Major Crash” Coming for Stocks, Commodities Already Topping Out Market Downturn Approaching; Go Long the Ultra Shorts? White ‘.. consistently bad economic .. Following is a brief list (mostly from Yahoo Finance‘s Economic Calendar) of troubling news: …1-20…’ This is an especially great opportunity to sell / take profits while you still can since there's much worse to come! Remember: ‘Sell in May and go away! …

America Is a Failed State Because It Won’t Prosecute Financial Crime Washington’s Blog | It’s now mainstream news that none of the big financial criminals have been prosecuted. This is the grim economic reality [ http://albertpeia.com/grimreality.htm ]. Selling In May Is Very Good Advice This Year Harding Equity Valuations Are Forming the Second Biggest Bubble in U.S. History Kaspar ... According to Yale University’s Dr. Robert Shiller, the market is now 41% overvalued …only time the markets have been more overvalued .. 1929 & tech bubble. http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2011/4/12/saupload_cape_thumb1.png PRECHTER: We're Still In A Massive Bear Market And Stocks Will Crash To New Lows Equity Valuations Are Forming the Second Biggest Bubble in U.S. History Kaspar 'Despite the terrible economic performance of the past ten years, equity valuations are the 2nd largest bubble in U.S. history... According to Yale University’s Dr. Robert Shiller, the market is now 41% overvalued according to this valuation metric. The only time the markets have been more overvalued was a few brief months in 1929 and the tech bubble

... growth in earnings have been artificially manufactured...

· The change in accounting rules for the financial sector by FASB has generated massive “false” account profits beginning in 2009…’

Treasury to tap pensions to fund government (WP) 24 Signs Of Economic Decline In America States face shortfall for retirees (WP) (The frauds on wall street et als should be criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed. ]

Market Downturn Approaching; Go Long the Ultra Shorts? White ‘It is time to worry about a market downturn. There has been almost consistently bad economic news reported in the U.S. in the last week. Following is a brief list (mostly from Yahoo Finance‘s Economic Calendar) of troubling news:

  1. The Trade Balance for March was worse than expected at -$48.20B vs. an expected -$47.00B (the previous month’s was -$45.40B). Pundits are speculating that this will result in a lowering of the Q1 GDP estimate, which is due out May 26.
  2. The Mississippi Flood is the worst in a century-- this alone will depress the Q2 GDP. Shipping down the Mississippi has slowed (or sometimes stopped). Huge numbers of casinos have closed. Farms and towns have been flooded.
  3. The PPI missed at 0.80% vs. an expected 0.60%. The Core PPI missed at 0.30% vs. an expected 0.20%. Also, the continued large spread between the CPI and PPI numbers means that many companies are eating a good part of the quickly increasing input costs. This should hurt margins going forward.
  4. Retail Sales (MoM) missed at +0.50% vs. an expected +0.60%.
  5. Some good news Friday had the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index beat at 72.40 vs. an expected 70.00.
  6. The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index missed at 11.90 vs. an expected 19.60.
  7. The TIC Net Long-Term Transactions missed at $24.00B vs. an expected $57.70B.
  8. The NAHB Housing Market Index missed at 16 vs. an expected 17.
  9. Housing Starts missed at 0.52M vs. an expected 0.57M.
  10. Building Permits missed at 0.55M vs. an expected 0.59M.
  11. The Capacity Utilization Rate missed at 76.90% vs. an expected 77.70%.
  12. Industrial Production (MoM) missed at 0.00% vs. an expected +0.50%.
  13. Several blue chip companies such as Cisco (CSCO) and Hewlett Packard (HPQ) gave very weak guidance going forward, as though they are expecting a soft spot in the economy.
  14. The Fed Minutes indicated that they had considered ending QE2 before its stated end, but decided to proceed since it was so close to the end. The Fed also talked about how to withdraw stimulus. There seemed to be no serious consideration of a QE3. There are only a few crumbs left of the manna of the market hypers (QE2).
  15. Congress has allowed the debt ceiling to be exceeded. Geithner is now borrowing from Peter to pay Paul, and August 2nd is the day that he says this must stop. The Republicans are using the threat of a default as leverage to get concessions on many of the spending cuts they want. They will get spending cuts, which means tightening! Tightening tends to push the equities markets down. Hopefully the U.S. will not default.
  16. The USD has been rallying. The above mentioned tightening should help the USD rally. If the USD continues to strengthen, that could cause an unwind of the USD carry trade. This would translate into selling of equities and commodities. A stronger USD would mean commodity prices would likely fall.
  17. The Initial Jobless Claims were 409K vs. an expected 420K, but the previous week‘s number was revised upward to 438K. While it was pleasant to see a beat for a change, the overall trend is still bad. The 409K means the total increase in Initial Jobless Claims in the four weeks since the end of the last Nonfarm Payrolls surveys’ data period has been 159K. Additionally, the 68K jobs from the one-time McDonald’s (MCD) hiring spree that padded the last Nonfarm Payrolls report will not be there to prop up the next report on the first Friday of June. This means that the next report will be shy a total of 227K jobs. The Nonfarm Payrolls number is likely to be a big disappointment.
  18. Existing Home Sales dipped in April to 5.05M vs. an expected 5.22M and a previous 5.10M.
  19. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index missed terribly at 3.90 vs. an expected 20.00 and a previous 18.50. This is truly ominous when combined with the terrible NY Empire State Manufacturing Index miss (see above).
  20. The Leading Indicators for April missed at -0.3% vs. an expected 0.0%…’

In Libya, robbery funds the revolution Cash-strapped rebels resort to an un­or­tho­dox tactic — a bank robbery — to help fund fight against Gaddafi (Washington Post) [ Ah! Right! The americanization of the revolution … robbery in any form is something that america knows a lot about … Some have already talked about this theft as being a prime reason for this conflict: NATO in Libya: Besides the Oil, Is It Also a Gold Robbery? The IMF data show Libya’s reserves to be 4.6 million ounces, a figure of nearly 144 tons. At current market prices the value is over $6bn. Financial Heist of the Century: Confiscating Libya’s Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWF) The objective of the war against Libya is not just its oil reserves (now estimated at 60 billion barrels), which are the greatest in Africa and whose extraction costs are among the lowest in the world, nor the natural gas reserves of which are estimated at about 1,500 billion cubic meters. Libya: All About Oil, or All About Banking? I have never before heard of a central bank being created in just a matter of weeks out of a popular uprising. This suggests we have a bit more than a rag tag bunch of rebels running around and that there are some pretty sophisticated influences. Libyan War Gets Weird: Defending the Indefensible Even those who have studied for years the criminal consolidation of this planet under the global corporate-financier oligarchy may be noticing that the war in Libya is turning into something new and unprecedented. French, British leaders meet about Libya (Washington Post) [ Wow! Talk about sounding like a plan ... and all this time we thought they already had done that. After all, they must conserve their resources; you know, that war-prone nato alliance comprised of members almost to a nation defacto bankrupt, striving to emulate 'lead war nation' america's defacto bankrupt status. ] The countries struggled Wednesday to come up with new tactics to topple Moammar Gaddafi without resorting to further Western military intervention.

Libya: Increased Airstrikes, Ground Troops, Contractors, Civilians Killed, Deadly DU Munitions – Can We Call This A War Yet? The globalist coalition refers to it as ‘kinetic military action’, yet as more civilians are killed in NATO bombings, and with experts adamant that deadly Depleted Uranium weapons are being used by Western forces, the conflict in Libya looks a hell of a lot like the occupations of Afghanistan and Iraq all over again.

‘Depleted uranium’s toxic legacy to poison Libya for 40 years’ Military experts are accusing coalition forces in Libya of using depleted uranium in their air strikes. The deadly substance can cause cancer and physical mutations in those who come into close contact with it.

63 percent of people killed in Iraq war were civilians: report Xinhua | U.S.-led wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have been causing huge civilian casualties. ]

GOP rejecting ‘root-canal economics’ The debate about the impact of immediate budget cuts on a fragile economy is at the core of a showdown over how and when to trim the deficit. While Republicans say a swift spending cut doesn’t have to be painful, many economists warn it comes at a cost. (Washington Post) [ Economists? You mean the ones who helped get us here in the first place, including ‘no-recession-helicopter-ben-b.s.-bernanke’? Root canals? So what! That’s what novacaine’s for … This is an especially great opportunity to sell / take profits while you still can since there's much worse to come! Remember: ‘Sell in May and go away! ‘ … El-Erian: “Financial Repression” In the Form of a Negative Real Rate of Return for Savers Is Coming to America Pimco co-chair El-Erian is saying that the major flaws in the financial system will not be addressed, the government will keep on printing money, and that the inflation-adjusted return on investments for most Americans will be negative. Stock Market: 4 Current Warning Signs Navin ‘…1) The 5-year high in the level of insider corporate stock sales is telling. At 565 sells for every 1 buy, it’s never been higher. Yes, it’s normal for insiders to be selling some of their stocks so they can buy new yachts and some of this is pre-planned. But that ratio — which has spiked recently — is extraordinarily high, one might even say off-the-chart. 2) Professor Shiller at Yale figures that the present price-to-earnings ratio for the Standard & Poor’s 500 is in the area of 26. The historical average is about 16. 3) The failure of the financial sector to keep up is a significant negative divergence for the entire market. 4) Key market leaders are rolling over in price...


Market's Risk/Reward Ratio Remains Poor McCurdy ‘The S&P 500 index has been in a secular bear market since 2000 and our Secular Trend Score (STS) indicates that we remain in the middle stage of its development (click to enlarge images):

http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2011/5/14/668911-130540693393499-Erik-McCurdy_origin.png

This is an especially great opportunity to sell / take profits while you still can since there's much worse to come! Remember: ‘Sell in May and go away! …

America Is a Failed State Because It Won’t Prosecute Financial Crime Washington’s Blog | It’s now mainstream news that none of the big financial criminals have been prosecuted. This is the grim economic reality [ http://albertpeia.com/grimreality.htm ]. Selling In May Is Very Good Advice This Year Harding / April Is a Good Time to Sell Adler Equity Valuations Are Forming the Second Biggest Bubble in U.S. History Kaspar ... According to Yale University’s Dr. Robert Shiller, the market is now 41% overvalued …only time the markets have been more overvalued .. 1929 & tech bubble. http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2011/4/12/saupload_cape_thumb1.png

1Q bank profits up, revenue down Profits in the first quarter were the best in four years, but the industry isn’t back on its feet yet. (Washington Post) [ ‘Simple trick’ that you’re paying for whether you like it or not … ie., Dave's Daily 'If you can keep interest rates this low this long, its inevitable cheap financing can allow companies to start cobbling each other up. Further Ben's policies allow companies like IBM to sell bonds at 1% and buy back shares with the proceeds (total paper bubble-scam). POMO is occurring almost daily and Primary Dealers can buy back their shares and pay dividends with what essentially is taxpayer money—‘ … America Is a Failed State Because It Won’t Prosecute Financial Crime Washington’s Blog | It’s now mainstream news that none of the big financial criminals have been prosecuted. This is the grim economic reality [ http://albertpeia.com/grimreality.htm ]. Selling In May Is Very Good Advice This Year Harding / April Is a Good Time to Sell Adler Equity Valuations Are Forming the Second Biggest Bubble in U.S. History Kaspar ... According to Yale University’s Dr. Robert Shiller, the market is now 41% overvalued …only time the markets have been more overvalued .. 1929 & tech bubble. http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2011/4/12/saupload_cape_thumb1.png PRECHTER: We're Still In A Massive Bear Market And Stocks Will Crash To New Lows Equity Valuations Are Forming the Second Biggest Bubble in U.S. History Kaspar 'Despite the terrible economic performance of the past ten years, equity valuations are the 2nd largest bubble in U.S. history... According to Yale University’s Dr. Robert Shiller, the market is now 41% overvalued according to this valuation metric. The only time the markets have been more overvalued was a few brief months in 1929 and the tech bubble

... growth in earnings have been artificially manufactured...

· The change in accounting rules for the financial sector by FASB has generated massive “false” account profits beginning in 2009…’

Treasury to tap pensions to fund government (WP) 24 Signs Of Economic Decline In America ‘The US is in the middle of a devastating long-term economic decline’ ] States face shortfall for retirees (WP) (The frauds on wall street et als should be criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed.

(5-25-11) Dow 12,394 +38 Nasdaq 2,761 +15 S&P 500 1,320 +4 [CLOSE- OIL $101.59 (-54% for year 2008) (RECORD TRADING HIGH $147.27) GAS $3.95 (reg. gas in LAND OF FRUITS AND NUTS $4.26 REG./ $4.36 MID-GRADE/$4.46 PREM./ $4.55 DIESELL) / GOLD $1,529 (+24% for year 2009) / SILVER $38.45 (+47% for year 2009) PLATINUM $1,779 (+56% for year 2009) Metal News for the Day / DOLLAR= .71 EURO, 82 YEN, .61 POUND STERLING, ETC. (How low can you go - LOWER)/ Interest Rates: http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield 10 YR NOTE YIELD 3.13% …..… AP Business Highlights ...Yahoo Market Update… T. Rowe Price Weekly Recap – Stocks / Bonds / Currencies - Domestic / International This Is a Secular Bear Market and The End of Buy and Hold … and Hope The bull market that never was/were beyond wall street b.s. when measured in gold ‘WORST ECONOMIC COLLAPSE EVER’ Must Read Economic / Financial Data This Depression is just beginning The coming depression… thecomingdepression.net The Next Wave of Collapse is Coming Sooner than you think Sliding Back Into the Great Depression ABSOLUTELY, ABSURDLY, RIDICULOUS! SELL / TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME!

National / World

Texans Take to Capitol, Demand Representatives Resist TSA Tyranny Paul Joseph Watson and Kurt Nimmo | More than 200 people responded to Alex Jones’ call to rally at the state capitol.

Financial Terrorism: TSA Holds Texas Flights Hostage Paul Joseph Watson | DOJ threats shut down anti-grope bill, lawmaker compares fight to revolutionary war against Mexico.

Not Enjoying TSA Grope-Down is a Suspicious Activity Steve Watson | Turn that frown upside down.

Moles alerted investigator of planted Obama birth certificate months before release Aaron Dykes & Alex Jones | Dr. Corsi was alerted to a plot to release a fake 2 months before President Obama released his purported long-form birth certificate.

Powerful Bi-Partisan Caucus Prepares to Fight TSA Paul Joseph Watson | Resistance to unconstitutional grope-downs will not be defeated by DOJ threats of financial terrorism.

Arab Spring + European Summer = World Winter of Discontent The biggest news this past week was not the rape accusation scandal embroiling International Monetary Fund chief, Dominique Strauss-Kahn. It was not President Barack Obama’s much ballyhooed Middle East speech, nor was it the historic floods devastating the Mississippi flood plain.

Powerful Bi-Partisan Caucus Prepares to Fight TSA If the TSA and the federal government thought that their mafia-like elimination of the anti-grope down bill in Texas was the end of the line for resistance against the wholesale TSA takeover of society, they can think again. A nationwide caucus of powerful lawmakers is now activating in a bid to eviscerate the TSA power grab that has stripped Americans of their dignity and constitutional right to privacy.

Not Enjoying TSA Grope-Down is a Suspicious Activity The TSA wants you know that should you express any kind of dissatisfaction at having to be prodded, groped or forced through a radiation firing naked body scanner, you will be treated as suspicious.

DHS Merges with Pentagon and NSA Under Obama’s Cyber Threat Plan Obama has proposed legislation that will give the Department of Homeland Security more “autonomy” in its effort to protect civilian computer networks from ostensible cyber attack, according to Information Week.

Reid Preempts Paul, Slips Patriot Act in Small Business Bill Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid has circumvented a call by the newly elected senator from Kentucky, Rand Paul, to debate the Patriot Act.

Foreign fighters massing in Pakistan tribal region to launch attacks in Afghanistan Foreign fighters are massing in Pakistan’s lawless tribal areas as they prepare to launch attacks across the border on international troops in Afghanistan, according to an al-Qaeda member captured by Nato.

A Modern Declaration of Independence The current system, domineered by corrupt, career politicians and the corporations and banks that manage them like a troupe of actors, seeks to monopolize power on all levels.

Federal Blockade: TSA Holds Texas Flights Hostage An astounding Department of Justice threat to cancel airline flights to and from Texas, in addition to underhanded lobbying by TSA representatives, has killed efforts in the state to pass HB 1937, a bill that would have made invasive pat downs by TSA agents a felony.

Soil contamination from Fukushima crisis comparable to Chernobyl: study Radiation released by the crippled Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant has caused soil contamination matching the levels seen in the Chernobyl disaster in some areas, a researcher told the government’s nuclear policy-setting body Tuesday.

Fukushima Containment Vessels May Be Leaking, Tepco Says Tokyo Electric Power Co. said the containment chambers of damaged reactors at its Fukushima nuclear plant were likely breached, identifying additional source of radiation leaks that may exceed Chernobyl.

Focus Is on Obama as Tensions Soar Across Mideast (New York Times) [ Adapt? I don’t think so! I do believe that both nations are regressively but nostalgically trying bring the world back to failed geopolitical paradigms that made the 20th century the bloodiest century, not coincidentally the american century (obviously for israel the latter half century). Yet, such a conditioned psychopathic approach to global matters has led them self-destructively, self-defeatingly, and ineluctably to decline, fall, and as with dinosaurs, extinction, at least in a manner of speaking. Global information exchange at lightning speed has made such throwbacks to a lost era, propaganda, and maladaptive traits foolish at best, deadly at worst. Intelligent people worldwide aren’t buying the obsolete, Orwellian approach fostered by the purveyors of global unrest; viz., israel, america, Orwellian england, etc..; more specifically, diversion of the masses from the glaring failures of leadership, economic and otherwise.

CRIME STATISTICS >(america is No. 1)

Rank

Countries

Amount

# 1

United States:

11,877,218

# 2

United Kingdom:

6,523,706

# 3

Germany:

6,507,394

UPDATE: MORE CLAIMS OF RACE BIAS AT JUSTICE... In emotional and personal testimony, an ex-Justice official who quit over the handling of a voter intimidation case against the New Black Panther Party accused his former employer of instructing attorneys in the civil rights division to ignore cases that involve black defendants and white victims ' Cases against Wall Street lag despite Holder’s vows to target financial fraud WP | Obama has promised to hold Wall Street accountable for the meltdown.
THE OBAMA DECEPTION’ http://albertpeia.com/obamadeceptionhighqualityversion.flv ]

Agents irked by plan to keep Mueller (Washington Post) [ ‘abide by .. tenure limits’ ? I’m more concerned with, and it’s fundamentally more important from the perspective of the FBI’s ‘mission and purpose’, that meaningful law be abided by regarding the following:
October 15, 2010 (*see infra)

Steven M. Martinez, Assistant Director In Charge
Federal Bureau of Investigation, USDOJ
11000 Wilshire Blvd., Suite 1700

Los Angeles, CA 90024

Dear Sir:

I enclose herewith 3 copies of the within DVD rom autorun disk (which will open in your computer’s browser) as per your office’s request as made this day (the disk and contents have been scanned by Avast, McAfee, and Norton which I’ve installed on my computer to prevent viral attacks / infection and are without threat). I also include 1 copy of the DVD as filed with the subject court as referenced therein (which files are also included on the aforesaid 3 disks in a separate folder named ‘112208opocoan’). The (civil) RICO action (as you’re aware, the RICO Act is a criminal statute which provides a civil remedy, including treble damages and attorney fees, as an incentive for private prosecution of said claims probably owing to the fact that the USDOJ seems somewhat overwhelmed and in need of such assistance given the seriousness and prevalence of said violations of law which have a corrupting influence on the process, and which corruption is pervasive). A grievance complaint against Coan was also filed concurrently with the subject action and held in abeyance pending resolution of the action which was illegally dismissed without any supporting law and in contravention of the Order of The Honorable Robert N. Chatigny, Chief Judge, USDC, District Connecticut. The files below the horizontal rule are the referenced documents as filed. (Owing to the damage to the financial interests of both the U.S. and the District of Congresswoman Roybal-Allard, viz., Los Angeles, the Qui Tam provisions of the Federal False Claims Act probably would apply and I would absent resolution seek to refer the within to a firm with expertise in that area of the law with which I am not familiar).

The document in 5 pages under penalty of perjury I was asked to forward to the FBI office in New Haven is probably the best and most concise summary of the case RICO Summary to FBI Under Penalty of Perjury at Their Request (5 pages) [ ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf http://albertpeia.com/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf ].

The correspondence I received from the Congresswoman by way of email attachment (apparent but typical problem with my mail) along with my response thereto is included on the 3 disks as fbicorrespondencereyes.htm . With regard to the calls to the FBI’s LA and New Haven, CT offices: There was one call to the LA office and I was referred to the Long Beach, CA office where I personally met with FBI Agent Jeff Hayes to whom I gave probative evidentiary documents of the money laundering which he confirmed as indicative of same (he was transferred from said office within approximately a month of said meeting and his location was not disclosed to me upon inquiry). The matter was assigned to FBI Agent Ron Barndollar and we remained in touch for in excess of a decade until he abruptly retired (our last conversation prior to his retirement related to the case and parenthetically, Rudy Giuliani whose father I stated had been an enforcer for the mob to which he registered disbelief and requested I prove it, which I did – he served 12 years in prison, aggravated assault/manslaughter? – and no, there is no Chinese wall of separation – Andrew Maloney’s the one that prosecuted gotti).

In contradistinction to the statement in said correspondence, there is a plethora of information including evidence supporting the claims set forth in the RICO VERIFIED COMPLAINT (see infra). Such includes and as set forth in the case, inter alia,

· A judgment had been entered in my favor in the case, United States District Court Case #3:93cv02065(AWT)(USDCJ Alvin Thompson), worth approximately now in excess of $300,000 remains unaccounted for and which could be used for payment to creditors, Los Angeles, etc..

· Counsel Robert Sullivan on my behalf documented by way of certification upon investigation that Alan Shiff, USBCJ, had falsely stated a dismissal upon which false statement he predicated a retaliatory and spurious contempt proceeding against me causing substantial damage, and for which he sought Judicial Notice of those and related proceedings as did I in some of my filings.

· The Order of Dismissal With Prejudice by Alan Shiff, USBCJ, owing to Defendant Coan’s failure to file anything whatsoever by the court’s deadline causing creditors and me substantial damages: [ Shiff Order of Dismissal With Prejudice on Coan’s Failure to File Page 1 Page 2 ]

· Defendant Coan had filed an action against me to prevent me from suing him which necessitated me to fly to Connecticut for a hearing before The Honorable Robert N. Chatigny, Chief Judge, USDC, District of Connecticut, who denied Coan’s requested relief as to Coan but precluded my action against Shiff (although there is no immunity, judicial or otherwise, for criminal acts, ie., fraud connected with a case under Title 11, USC, etc.) . [ http://albertpeia.com/crossexamofcoanbypeia.pdf ]

· Newly appointed judge, Maryanne Trump Barry, Donald Trump’s sister, was assigned the RICO case despite the conflict of interest in light of hundreds of thousands of dollars of illegal (drug) money being laundered through the Trump casinos by the RICO defendants, and despite my motion to recuse her which motion she heard herself and denied, and U.S. Trustee Hugh Leonard with whom I met personally refused to join or file a separate motion to recuse and not long thereafter left said office for private practice at Cole, Shotz, et als on retainer with the RICO defendants as his primary client.

· Probative and evidentiary documents, affidavits, exhibits, including those turned over to FBI Agent Jeff Hayes in Long Beach, CA, had been given to Assistant U.S. Attorney Jonathan Lacey with whom I met personally at the U.S. Attorney’s Office in Newark, N.J., at which time Samuel Alito was U.S. Attorney, and went over said documents and their probative value with him. Within approximately a month thereafter upon inquiry I was told that Jonathon Lacey was no longer with the office, that the file/documents could not be located, and that there was no further information available concerning contacting him or his location. I thereupon delivered by hand, copies of said documents to the office of then U.S. Attorney Alito, addressed to him, with assurance they would go directly to him. In addition to being inept [ I looked in on the one mob case he had brought, bungled, lost (accidently on purpose?) since I was suing some mob-connected under RICO and the court (I had known / previously met outside of court the judge Ackerman through a client) was absolute bedlam and a total joke since incompetent corrupt Alito brought in all 20 mob defendants (rather than prosecute one or a few to flip them first) who feigning illness had beds/cots in the courtroom along with their moans during testimony and had the jury in stitches. As much as I hate the mob, it truly was funny, if not so tragic.], Alito is also corrupt (and maybe corrupt because he is inept). After a reasonable (but still rather short) time I called to determine the status and was told that Alito was no longer with the Office of the U.S. Attorney, that he was (appointed) a federal judge, and that neither the documents nor any file or record of same could be located. Alito did parley the same / cover-up into quid pro quo direct lifetime appointment to the Court of Appeals, 3rd circuit, despite the absence of judicial experience or successful tenure as U.S. Attorney (Maryanne Trump Barry as well). This is the same Sam Alito that now sits on the purported highest court in the land. The real application of the illegal rule ‘don’t ask, don’t tell’.

There is applicable insurance / surety coverage and neither LA, nor creditors, nor I should continue to have been damaged by this brazened corrupt and illegal scenario, which should be resolved in accordance with the meaningful rules of law apposite thereto.

Sincerely,

Albert L. Peia

611 E. 5th Street, #404

Los Angeles, CA 90013

(213) 219-**** (cell phone)

(213) 622-3745 (listed land line but there are unresolved problems with the line, computer connection may be the reason but I hesitate to chance greater non-performance / worsening by their ‘fix’ so cell phone best for contact).

Fight over feral alley cats divides feline lovers (Washington Post) [ My love of cats, big and small, is no mystery; but indeed is beyond the scope of this comment. I’ve had and loved neutered (not by my decision / action) as well as my most recent ‘macho’ (non-neutered) cat ( I just couldn’t bring myself to ‘cutting his b***s off’ as advised by a girl I was seeing at the time … kind of a ‘golden rule’ thing … and knowing ‘he’d never forgive me’ … his loss to me, part of the RICO scenario, though not part of my damages, is among the forever unforgivable parts of what occurred therein). As for ‘taking a position’, as a noumenon, I question the premise of any life at all in a meaningful sense in Washington d.c.; and hence, not the best comparison for setting policy. Unlike dogs, you will not see cats attacking and killing babies, etc.. So, I conclude that in such dire circumstances (d.c.) where a trade-up is beneficial, such seems, though rightfully exceptional, a sometimes favorable course, if the only choice; which assumes procreation and continued growth of the species is not impinged upon. Therefore, this argues for un-neutered moves to better environs. ]

Drudgereport: USA HITS DEBT CEILING...
TREASURY RAIDS PENSIONS...
PUTIN DECIDES TO RETAKE PRESIDENCY
60 DAYS: GOP senators press Obama on war powers...
Pile of American debt -- would stretch beyond stratosphere!
House members' stock market success suspect...

Congressional bonuses handed out during budget crisis...
Loughner removed from courtroom after outburst...
Found too american to stand trial...

Gold, silver coins to be legal currency in Utah...
DAY 3: MORE TWISTERS...

At least 14 more killed...
VIDEO...
Fresh Twisters Touch Down...

At least 7 more killed...
Death toll reaches 124 in Joplin; Deadliest in half century..
1,500 Reported Missing...
TORNADO SWARMS DEADLIEST IN MORE THAN HALF CENTURY
HEARTLAND DEVASTATION...

116 dead, nearly 500 twister deaths this year...
VIDEO... PHOTOS...
AUDIO TERROR: 'I LOVE YOU ALL'...
'I'm alive!' text message saves man's life...
1,500 rescuers work through pouring rain...
Threats of more to come...
Looting in Minneapolis...
State Treasurer Warns Bond Houses Against Further Loans to Illinois...
NYT: 'Is Anti-White Bias a Problem?' [ …
In what some have called the new post-racial era, what constitutes discrimination is shifting. The landmark Supreme Court case, Ricci v. DeStefano, for example, ruled that white firefighters suffered discrimination when their employer threw out a promotional exam because none of the African-American firefighters who took the test qualified for promotion …’ UPDATE: MORE CLAIMS OF RACE BIAS AT JUSTICE... In emotional and personal testimony, an ex-Justice official who quit over the handling of a voter intimidation case against the New Black Panther Party accused his former employer of instructing attorneys in the civil rights division to ignore cases that involve black defendants and white victims ' Cases against Wall Street lag despite Holder’s vows to target financial fraud WP | Obama has promised to hold Wall Street accountable for the meltdown.
THE OBAMA DECEPTION’ http://albertpeia.com/obamadeceptionhighqualityversion.flv ]
UPDATE: $24B in bailout paid to contractors who owe millions in taxes...
Palestinians: netanayahu Speech is 'declaration of war'...
SUPREME COURT ORDERS CA TO RELEASE UP TO 46,000 PRISONERS...
'Terrible things are sure to happen'...

JERRY BROWN: 'Let's raise taxes!!!'

Top 3 Reasons Markets were Down on Goldman’s Oil Scare May 24, 2011 Wall St. Cheat Sheet ‘Markets closed down on Wall Street: DJI -0.2% SP500 -0.08% Nasdaq -0.46% Gold 0.61% Oil 1.86% . Markets started in the green, sold off into the red, made a honorable attempt to rally end of day, but sold off again into the bell. On the commodities front, Oil (NYSE:USO) was volatile in the afternoon, but managed to rally to $99.52 on the day. Gold (NYSE:GLD) held $1,500 again as debt scares haunted investors, and Silver (NYSE:SLV) got back to it’s old ways adding over 4%.

Today’s markets were down because:

1) Market police continue to blow whistles . Yesterday Italy (NYSE:EWI) took a credit outlook rating cut from Standard & Poor’s (NYSE:MHP), and today Moody’s (NYSE:MCO) the streak alive by threatening to take the downgrade sword to the UK banks. As if that wasn’t enough for bankers to skip dessert, New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman got his investigation on by expanding his mortgage fraud probe to the bond insurers: Ambac Financial Group (PINK:ABKFQ), MBIA Inc. (NYSE:MBI), Syncora Holdings Ltd. (PINK:SYCRF), and Assured Guaranty Ltd. (NYSE:AGO).

2) Oil rallied on Goldman’s flip-flop . In April, Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) screamed “Sell Oil Now!” Today they went Chinatown on us and shouted “Buy Oil Now!” Regardless, on days when Oil (NYSE:USO) rises strongly, the econ bears take the stage warning of higher gas prices and weaker consumer sales — a good reason to sell stocks. But don’t tell them about airline woes because canceled flights from the volcano are sure to weigh on fuel demand in the near future.

3) IPOs were hot, the NASDAQ was not . Shorts got their faces melted off in LinkedIn (NYSE:LNKD) at 2PM, while white hot Russian search engine Yandex (NASDAQ:YNDX) popped 55% at its initial public offering and Glencore gave underwriters a reason to cheer.

Bonus: Results are in. Here’s Your Cheat Sheet to this Quarter’s Dow 30 Earnings …’

Harry Dent: “Major Crash” Coming for Stocks, Commodities Already Topping Out

Shades of 2008: A Greek Default Won't Be 'Contained': Mauldin Task ‘Financial markets shuddered Monday as fears over Europe's sovereign debt crisis resurfaced yet again. Still, the Dow closed off its worst levels of the session amid the conventional view that Greece's debt crisis can be managed.

But Endgame author John Mauldin says Greece won't be any more "contained" than subprime mortgages were in 2008.

"It's not something that stops at the European waters," Mauldin says. "Just like the subprime crisis didn't stop in California…I'm worried this one has a lot of contagion and it'll affect the world."

As for the mechanism for that contagion, Mauldin lays out the following scenario in the event of a Greek default:

  • - Greece has to nationalize its banks.
  • - Greek citizens are forced to take deposits in drachmas, rather than euros.
  • - Greek consumers and businesses then default on all debts because of the resulting haircut, which he estimates at 50%.
  • - French and German banks are forced to take write-downs on their Greek exposure.
  • - The ECB is forced to take a write-down on its exposure to Greek debt.

Such a scenario would not go unnoticed in Portugal or, especially, Ireland, where voters have already shown their displeasure with having to pay for bank bailouts, Mauldin notes.

Meanwhile, U.S. banks have written credit-default swaps to European banks. Most of these positions are hedged but "you're only balanced as long as both of those counterparties are good," Mauldin says. "If you have a bad counterparty, now you're out of balance."

If you'll recall, it wasn't the failing subprime mortgages per se that caused the real crisis in 2008, but banks refusal to trade with other banks. It was this "counterparty risk" which caused the financial system to seize up, which is why policymakers here and in Europe are doing everything and anything to prevent a repeat.’

Market Outlook: Proceed With Caution Brown ‘ The market began the week down, with the S&P 500 closing at 1317. After three consecutive down-weeks, the S&P 500 has lost -4.5% from its May 2nd high and now hovers below its 30-day and 50-day moving averages in a generally negative technical position.

It seems investors finally took stock of the problems lurking outside of Wall Street, specifically Europe’s sovereign debt problems and China’s slowing growth.(Daniel Sckolnik’s posting today on the Sabrient blog (”ETF Periscope: Spain Protests Just May Cause the Running Away of the Bulls“) presents a cogent overview of Europe’s debt problem and paints the dire picture in Spain very well.)

Of course, Europe’s and China’s problems strengthened the dollar, which has battered commodity stocks and the market in general over the past year. While the dollar was pretty much flat last week, it is up 6% from its recent low. Oil prices strengthened a bit but remain down 10% from their recent high.

Other culprits added to the negative mood. Disappointing earnings releases from major companies like Cisco (CSCO), Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), Disney (DIS), Staples (SPLS), and the Gap (GAP) reflected the continued weakness in corporate earnings. Last week’s economic news cast a shadow over our struggling recovery. The Philly Fed report and Empire State index revealed a slowing in the growth of the manufacturing sector; housing starts and existing home sales came in lower than expected; and last week’s initial jobless claims remained stubbornly over 400,000.

Market stats. Last week, Mid-cap Value was the only positive cap/style, up +0.3%. Small-cap Growth, investors’ darling of the past year, was the worst performer again last week, down -0.9%, as traders continued to take profits in this space. (Here are the market stats.)

Energy led the sectors, up +1.3%. Also positive were Utilities (+0.9%), Transportation (+0.8%), Basic Industries (+0.7%), and Consumer Non-Durables (+0.3%). The worst performer was Consumer Durables, down -2.2%, with Capital Goods and Technology joining in the down-more-than-1% group. Technology’s poor performance was no doubt heightened by the disappointing earnings from Hewlett-Packard.

Our forward looking sector model continues to favor Basic Industries, followed closely by Energy, Health Care, and Capital Goods.

Coming up. This week, we will get more hard data about our economy. On Tuesday, new home sales will tell us whether the housing market is continuing to flail; Wednesday, durable goods will be closely watched; Thursday, initial jobless claims will try to break back under the 400K mark, and we’ll get our second look at first quarter GDP. On Friday, personal spending and Michigan sentiment chime in with their numbers.

It won’t take much more negativity to push the S&P 500 below its current support level of 1306, and if that is breached, 1257 is our next hope for a refuge.

What the market wants, frankly, is for the EU to bring its sovereign debt situation under control and for corporate America to resume strong earnings, which we won’t know until early July. All in all, I would suggest that we proceed with caution.

4 Stock Ideas for this Market

This week, I started with the GARP (Growth At a Reasonable Price) preset search in MyStockFinder. I then included Buys (in addition to Strong Buys) and increased the weighting in Long-Term Technicals. Here are four stock ideas from some of the higher-ranked sectors that look intriguing:

Ball Corp. (BLL) – Basic Industries
GT Solar (SOLR) – Energy
II-VI, Inc. (IIVI) – Capital Goods
LKQ Corp. (LKQX) – Consumer Durables’

Market Downturn Approaching; Go Long the Ultra Shorts? White ‘It is time to worry about a market downturn. There has been almost consistently bad economic news reported in the U.S. in the last week. Following is a brief list (mostly from Yahoo Finance‘s Economic Calendar) of troubling news:

  1. The Trade Balance for March was worse than expected at -$48.20B vs. an expected -$47.00B (the previous month’s was -$45.40B). Pundits are speculating that this will result in a lowering of the Q1 GDP estimate, which is due out May 26.
  2. The Mississippi Flood is the worst in a century-- this alone will depress the Q2 GDP. Shipping down the Mississippi has slowed (or sometimes stopped). Huge numbers of casinos have closed. Farms and towns have been flooded.
  3. The PPI missed at 0.80% vs. an expected 0.60%. The Core PPI missed at 0.30% vs. an expected 0.20%. Also, the continued large spread between the CPI and PPI numbers means that many companies are eating a good part of the quickly increasing input costs. This should hurt margins going forward.
  4. Retail Sales (MoM) missed at +0.50% vs. an expected +0.60%.
  5. Some good news Friday had the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index beat at 72.40 vs. an expected 70.00.
  6. The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index missed at 11.90 vs. an expected 19.60.
  7. The TIC Net Long-Term Transactions missed at $24.00B vs. an expected $57.70B.
  8. The NAHB Housing Market Index missed at 16 vs. an expected 17.
  9. Housing Starts missed at 0.52M vs. an expected 0.57M.
  10. Building Permits missed at 0.55M vs. an expected 0.59M.
  11. The Capacity Utilization Rate missed at 76.90% vs. an expected 77.70%.
  12. Industrial Production (MoM) missed at 0.00% vs. an expected +0.50%.
  13. Several blue chip companies such as Cisco (CSCO) and Hewlett Packard (HPQ) gave very weak guidance going forward, as though they are expecting a soft spot in the economy.
  14. The Fed Minutes indicated that they had considered ending QE2 before its stated end, but decided to proceed since it was so close to the end. The Fed also talked about how to withdraw stimulus. There seemed to be no serious consideration of a QE3. There are only a few crumbs left of the manna of the market hypers (QE2).
  15. Congress has allowed the debt ceiling to be exceeded. Geithner is now borrowing from Peter to pay Paul, and August 2nd is the day that he says this must stop. The Republicans are using the threat of a default as leverage to get concessions on many of the spending cuts they want. They will get spending cuts, which means tightening! Tightening tends to push the equities markets down. Hopefully the U.S. will not default.
  16. The USD has been rallying. The above mentioned tightening should help the USD rally. If the USD continues to strengthen, that could cause an unwind of the USD carry trade. This would translate into selling of equities and commodities. A stronger USD would mean commodity prices would likely fall.
  17. The Initial Jobless Claims were 409K vs. an expected 420K, but the previous week‘s number was revised upward to 438K. While it was pleasant to see a beat for a change, the overall trend is still bad. The 409K means the total increase in Initial Jobless Claims in the four weeks since the end of the last Nonfarm Payrolls surveys’ data period has been 159K. Additionally, the 68K jobs from the one-time McDonald’s (MCD) hiring spree that padded the last Nonfarm Payrolls report will not be there to prop up the next report on the first Friday of June. This means that the next report will be shy a total of 227K jobs. The Nonfarm Payrolls number is likely to be a big disappointment.
  18. Existing Home Sales dipped in April to 5.05M vs. an expected 5.22M and a previous 5.10M.
  19. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index missed terribly at 3.90 vs. an expected 20.00 and a previous 18.50. This is truly ominous when combined with the terrible NY Empire State Manufacturing Index miss (see above).
  20. The Leading Indicators for April missed at -0.3% vs. an expected 0.0%.

If the U.S. news wasn’t bad enough, the EU credit crisis is alive and well. The scuttlebutt on Greece is that it is no longer a matter of “if” Greece will default (give a haircut), but “when“. Ireland may have some of its banks give haircuts to debt holders. Portugal’s bailout has been okayed in principal, although Portugal still needs to elect a government to accept it. That government also needs to approve the necessary austerity measures to qualify for it. The previous government dissolved because it wouldn’t approve such measures just a couple of months ago. Portugal is predicted to go back into recession for 2011 and 2012 based on the harshness of the necessary austerity package.

In Japan, the economy shrank quarter over quarter in Jan-Mar by -0.90% vs. an expected -0.50%. Year over year Japan's GDP declined more than expected by -3.7%. This is the second consecutive quarter of decline. Japan is technically back in a recession. Its GDP Price Index (YoY) was down -1.90% (deflation). Its Industrial Production (MoM) was down a horrendous -15.50% vs. an expected -15.10%. Its Household Confidence missed at 33.40 vs. an expected 37.30. Public debt has reached 200% of GDP. Things are so bad there that ECRI has forecast a global summer slowdown.

In sum, there are sufficient reasons to expect a downturn in the U.S. equities markets. The manna of the “hypers”-- QE2-- has been reduced to a few sparse crumbs. The signs point downward. Of course, the market has proven better men than me wrong ...’



Key Market Movers for the Coming Week: No Easy Escape From Greek Contagion



The 'Real' Mega-Bears Short ‘It's time again for the weekend update of our "Real" Mega-Bears, an inflation-adjusted overlay of three secular bear markets. It aligns the current S&P 500f rom the top of the Tech Bubble in March 2000, the Dow in of 1929, and the Nikkei 225 from its 1989 bubble high.

Click [chart] for a larger image

This chart is consistent with my preference for real (inflation-adjusted) analysis of long-term market behavior. The nominal all-time high in the index occurred in October 2007, but when we adjust for inflation, the "real" all-time high for the S&P 500 occurred in March 2000.

Here is a nominal version to help clarify the impact of inflation and deflation, which varied significantly across these three markets.

See also my alternate version, which charts the comparison from the 2007 nominal all-time high in the S&P 500. This series also includes the Nasdaq from the 2000 Tech Bubble peak.

Click [chart] for a larger image

Weekly Indicators: The Slowdown Has Been Confirmed

“Both Parties And The White House Are Advocating A US Default” Zero Hedge | David Stockman, one of the few voices of fiscal prudence, debated US insolvency.

Stop Raising the Debt Ceiling Ron Paul | When our creditors finally wise up and cut us off, we will be forced to face economic realities whether we want to or not.

Gold, silver coins to be legal currency in Utah From the Trenches | It had to happen soon or later.


Fed’s Duke: “America’s Poor Have To Make A Choice Between Paying Their Gas And Their Mortgage” And another pearl of wisdom from the Fed’s uberthinkers, in this case Elizabeth Duke: “the recent increase in gasoline prices has affected consumer choices in housing and other purchases, big and small.

Stop Raising the Debt Ceiling The federal government once again has reached the limit of its legal ability to borrow money, meaning it cannot issue new Treasury debt without action by Congress to increase the debt ceiling limit.

The Decline of the Millionaire Last week we blogged about John Law, an infamous character that helped France find and lose illusory wealth in the span of a few short bubble years. During his infamous heyday, a new term came about—one that described the amount of wealth that was floating around.

David Stockman: “Both Parties And The White House Are Advocating A US Default” Last week David Stockman was on Tom Keene, making the usual media rounds (sometimes we marvel at his patience and endurance), as one of the few voices of fiscal prudence available to TV producers who seek to hold a balanced debate on the topic of US insolvency.

This is an especially great opportunity to sell / take profits while you still can since there's much worse to come! Remember: ‘Sell in May and go away! ‘ … El-Erian: “Financial Repression” In the Form of a Negative Real Rate of Return for Savers Is Coming to America Pimco co-chair El-Erian is saying that the major flaws in the financial system will not be addressed, the government will keep on printing money, and that the inflation-adjusted return on investments for most Americans will be negative. Stock Market: 4 Current Warning Signs Navin ‘…1) The 5-year high in the level of insider corporate stock sales is telling. At 565 sells for every 1 buy, it’s never been higher. Yes, it’s normal for insiders to be selling some of their stocks so they can buy new yachts and some of this is pre-planned. But that ratio — which has spiked recently — is extraordinarily high, one might even say off-the-chart. 2) Professor Shiller at Yale figures that the present price-to-earnings ratio for the Standard & Poor’s 500 is in the area of 26. The historical average is about 16. 3) The failure of the financial sector to keep up is a significant negative divergence for the entire market. 4) Key market leaders are rolling over in price...


Market's Risk/Reward Ratio Remains Poor McCurdy ‘The S&P 500 index has been in a secular bear market since 2000 and our Secular Trend Score (STS) indicates that we remain in the middle stage of its development (click to enlarge images):

http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2011/5/14/668911-130540693393499-Erik-McCurdy_origin.png

This is an especially great opportunity to sell / take profits while you still can since there's much worse to come! Remember: ‘Sell in May and go away! …

America Is a Failed State Because It Won’t Prosecute Financial Crime Washington’s Blog | It’s now mainstream news that none of the big financial criminals have been prosecuted. This is the grim economic reality [ http://albertpeia.com/grimreality.htm ]. Selling In May Is Very Good Advice This Year Harding / April Is a Good Time to Sell Adler Equity Valuations Are Forming the Second Biggest Bubble in U.S. History Kaspar ... According to Yale University’s Dr. Robert Shiller, the market is now 41% overvalued …only time the markets have been more overvalued .. 1929 & tech bubble. http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2011/4/12/saupload_cape_thumb1.png PRECHTER: We're Still In A Massive Bear Market And Stocks Will Crash To New Lows Equity Valuations Are Forming the Second Biggest Bubble in U.S. History Kaspar 'Despite the terrible economic performance of the past ten years, equity valuations are the 2nd largest bubble in U.S. history... According to Yale University’s Dr. Robert Shiller, the market is now 41% overvalued according to this valuation metric. The only time the markets have been more overvalued was a few brief months in 1929 and the tech bubble

... growth in earnings have been artificially manufactured...

· The change in accounting rules for the financial sector by FASB has generated massive “false” account profits beginning in 2009…’

Treasury to tap pensions to fund government (WP) 24 Signs Of Economic Decline In America ‘The US is in the middle of a devastating long-term economic decline’ ] States face shortfall for retirees (WP) (The frauds on wall street et als should be criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed. Dave's Daily 'If you can keep interest rates this low this long, its inevitable cheap financing can allow companies to start cobbling each other up. Further Ben's policies allow companies like IBM to sell bonds at 1% and buy back shares with the proceeds (total paper bubble-scam). POMO is occurring almost daily and Primary Dealers can buy back their shares and pay dividends with what essentially is taxpayer money-- … an especially great opportunity to sell / take profits while you still can since there's much worse to come!

ECONOMIC CRISIS ARCHIVE

National / World

Smoking Gun: Gov’t moles alerted investigator of planted Obama birth certificate 2 months before release Aaron Dykes & Alex Jones | Dr. Corsi was alerted to a plot to release a fake 2 months before President Obama released his purported long-form birth certificate.

Alex Jones’ Audio Blog: Owner’s Manual on Reality Infowars | Alex sums up the true scientific tyranny who criminally dominate this planet.

Alex Jones Endorses New Film Exposing Secret Banking System Infowars.com | A hard hitting look at how the problems we have today are nothing new.

Peter Fonda Issues Threat Against Obama: Is There a DHS Double Standard? Kurt Nimmo | Actor called president “a f—— traitor” and said his grand kids might take him out.

TSA launches groping at high school proms, other public places TheAlexJonesChannel | Terrorists may strike anywhere, so security goons must be everywhere, or so the logic goes.

Corsi To File Criminal Charges Against White House Over Obama Birth Certificate Paul Joseph Watson | Clear Channel radio station scrubs interview from audio archives

Exclusive: Obama set-up, caught in birth certificate sting Dr. Corsi was alerted to a plot to release a fake 2 months before President Obama released his purported long-form birth certificate.

Alex Jones On TSA Groping at High School Prom, Other Public Places Alex Jones addresses the outrageous expansion of the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) into high schools to screen students going to prom and graduation.

Fluoride Hoax Exploding: Alex Jones Interviews Dr. Paul Connett Following a successful anti-fluoride campaign in Canada, Dr. Paul Connett, Professor of Chemistry at St. Lawrence University in New York, visited the Infowars.com command center in Austin, Texas, to make appearance on the Alex Jones Show and tape “Deadly Fluoride: Hoax on the Run!”

White House Hires ‘Terminator’ To ‘Squash Negative Stories’ About Obama In a bid to ‘squash negative stories’ about Barack Obama that appear on the Internet, the White House has hired a dedicated propagandist whose role will be to savage people who tell “lies” about the President, in a chilling reminder of how prosecutors threatened people with jail time during the 2008 campaign if they criticized Obama.

Government Internet Takeover Continues Apace Moves to place restrictions and controls on the internet by Western governments are gathering pace, with the US setting the standard as the Department of Homeland Security seized yet more domain names over the weekend and shut down several websites under the guise of piracy and copyright regulations.

Feds to Mandate Black Box on all New Cars The feds will mandate next month that all new cars be fitted with a black box, according to news reports. So-called black boxes record information about speed, seat belt use and brake application.

70,000 more should evacuate after Fukushima: Watchdog Seventy thousand people living beyond the 20-kilometre no-go zone around Fukushima should be evacuated because of radioactivity deposited by the crippled nuclear plant, a watchdog said.

Outrage as Japan lifts radiation limit for kids Outraged parents have held a rowdy demonstration outside Japan’s education ministry in Tokyo to protest against the government’s decision to weaken nuclear safety standards in schools.

Japan’s TEPCO admits further nuclear reactor meltdowns The operator of Japan’s tsunami-hit Fukushima nuclear power plant on Tuesday said it believed fuel had partially melted inside three reactors, as long suspected by experts.

Corsi To File Criminal Charges Against White House Over Obama Birth Certificate Jerome Corsi has told a Cincinnati radio station that he is preparing to file criminal charges against the White House for producing a fraudulent birth certificate, as the controversial author of Where’s the Birth Certificate? closes in on the people within Obama’s inner circle he claims were behind the hoax.

Reconciliation (Washington Post) Recap: Budget graphs and budget tables; our fiscal future basically depends on whether this works; and why did Republicans support a budget they knew was politically toxic? [ Budget graphs and budget tables? Don’t ‘bet the ranch’ on them … oh, wait … everybody already did … the ranch is indeed upside down (worth less than what’s owed) … the ‘new american dream / nightmare / fantasy’ … Market Downturn Approaching; Go Long the Ultra Shorts? White ‘It is time to worry about a market downturn. There has been almost consistently bad economic news ..:

1. The Trade Balance for March was worse than expected ..will result in a lowering of the Q1 GDP estimate, which is due out May 26.

2. The Mississippi Flood is the worst in a century-- this alone will depress the Q2 GDP..

3. The PPI missed at 0.80% vs. an expected 0.60%. The Core PPI missed at 0.30% vs. an expected 0.20%. .. This should hurt margins going forward.

4. Retail Sales (MoM) missed at +0.50% vs. an expected +0.60%.

5. .. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index beat at 72.40 vs. an expected 70.00.

6. The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index missed at 11.90 vs. an expected 19.60.

7. The TIC Net Long-Term Transactions missed at $24.00B vs. an expected $57.70B.

8. The NAHB Housing Market Index missed at 16 vs. an expected 17.

9. Housing Starts missed at 0.52M vs. an expected 0.57M.

10. Building Permits missed at 0.55M vs. an expected 0.59M.

11. The Capacity Utilization Rate missed at 76.90% vs. an expected 77.70%.

12. Industrial Production (MoM) missed at 0.00% vs. an expected +0.50%.

13. Several blue chip companies such as Cisco (CSCO) and Hewlett Packard (HPQ) gave very weak guidance going forward, as though they are expecting a soft spot in the economy.

14. The Fed Minutes indicated that they had considered ending QE2 before its stated end, but decided to proceed since it was so close to the end..

15. Congress has allowed the debt ceiling to be exceeded. Geithner is now borrowing from Peter to pay Paul, ..

16. The USD has been rallying. The above mentioned tightening should help the USD rally. If the USD continues to strengthen, that could cause an unwind of the USD carry trade. This would translate into selling of equities and commodities. A stronger USD would mean commodity prices would likely fall.

17. The Initial Jobless Claims were 409K vs. an expected 420K, but the previous week‘s number was revised upward to 438K..

18. Existing Home Sales dipped in April to 5.05M vs. an expected 5.22M and a previous 5.10M.

19. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index missed terribly at 3.90 vs. an expected 20.00 ..

20. The Leading Indicators for April missed at -0.3% vs. an expected 0.0%…’ ]

Businesses criticize whistleblower plan (Washington Post) Groups are alarmed about a federal plan to reward company insiders and other tipsters for blowing the whistle on corporate fraud. The SEC is scheduled to vote Wednesday on the far-reaching proposal. [ They would … criticize and be alarmed at such plan which would increase the cost of their bribes from current levels … U.S. probes rely on companies' own inquiries (Washington Post) [ Tried that … doesn’t work in pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt america … the last few and ongoing crises are a testament to the failure of that approach … ] PostLeadership: Should money buy information? (Washington Post) [ It should, particularly since we know the converse is only too true in pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt america … Obama adopts the Bush Doctrine The May 19 Middle East speech, annotated. (Washington Post) [ Yeah! Two nut cases; two failed presidents. The latest case of U.S. paranoia (Los Angeles Times) [ Yeah! This really needs to be said; particularly when you take into account the reality, that while plentiful, american laws are all but meaningless, arbitrarily enforced at best, and ‘federales’ and their supporters (more commonly called bribes, one way or form or another) invariably the worst offenders. Though having but 5% of the world’s population, u.s. has 76% of the world’s serial killers, http://www.albertpeia.com/realifeamericaserialkillers.mpg bankrupt america also spends more on military than all the nations of the world combined... fed employees / contractors, cia, all 3 branches of u.s. gov’t, etc., are included in this evolved american trait of inherent criminality http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm ]:

NATO launches massive Libya strike (Washington Post)Tripoli is rocked by at least 15 huge explosions, many concentrated near Moammar Gaddafi’s compound. Senators introduce measure supporting force [ ‘The Empire Strikes Back’ (saw that film – the empire’s the bad guys) at … ] A storm season on a deadly path As the death toll hits 116, the latest tornado in Missouri has experts asking why 2011 has spawned so many deadly storms, with many blasting heavily populated areas. (Washington Post) [ … God’s Wrath … as good an explanation as any, especially when taking into account the innocent blood on former empire, pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt america’s hands … Market Downturn Approaching; Go Long the Ultra Shorts? White ‘It is time to worry about a market downturn. There has been almost consistently bad economic news ..:

1. The Trade Balance for March was worse than expected ..will result in a lowering of the Q1 GDP estimate, which is due out May 26.

2. The Mississippi Flood is the worst in a century-- this alone will depress the Q2 GDP..

3. The PPI missed at 0.80% vs. an expected 0.60%. The Core PPI missed at 0.30% vs. an expected 0.20%. .. This should hurt margins going forward.

4. Retail Sales (MoM) missed at +0.50% vs. an expected +0.60%.

5. .. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index beat at 72.40 vs. an expected 70.00.

6. The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index missed at 11.90 vs. an expected 19.60.

7. The TIC Net Long-Term Transactions missed at $24.00B vs. an expected $57.70B.

8. The NAHB Housing Market Index missed at 16 vs. an expected 17.

9. Housing Starts missed at 0.52M vs. an expected 0.57M.

10. Building Permits missed at 0.55M vs. an expected 0.59M.

11. The Capacity Utilization Rate missed at 76.90% vs. an expected 77.70%.

12. Industrial Production (MoM) missed at 0.00% vs. an expected +0.50%.

13. Several blue chip companies such as Cisco (CSCO) and Hewlett Packard (HPQ) gave very weak guidance going forward, as though they are expecting a soft spot in the economy.

14. The Fed Minutes indicated that they had considered ending QE2 before its stated end, but decided to proceed since it was so close to the end..

15. Congress has allowed the debt ceiling to be exceeded. Geithner is now borrowing from Peter to pay Paul, ..

16. The USD has been rallying. The above mentioned tightening should help the USD rally. If the USD continues to strengthen, that could cause an unwind of the USD carry trade. This would translate into selling of equities and commodities. A stronger USD would mean commodity prices would likely fall.

17. The Initial Jobless Claims were 409K vs. an expected 420K, but the previous week‘s number was revised upward to 438K..

18. Existing Home Sales dipped in April to 5.05M vs. an expected 5.22M and a previous 5.10M.

19. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index missed terribly at 3.90 vs. an expected 20.00 ..

20. The Leading Indicators for April missed at -0.3% vs. an expected 0.0%…’


Gerson: Gates’s war against defense cuts (Washington Post) [ Wow! Talk about being out of touch … I quess after years at the cia one starts to believe their own b***s*** / propaganda / lies to the point that, as gates, they’ve completely lost touch with reality … Davis ‘This is how we pay off our current debts and I think bondholders are simply happy to get anything out of a country that admits it owes $15Tn (1/4 of global GDP) but probably owes closer to $60Tn (entire global GDP) in the form of unfunded liabilities. The funniest thing about this (and you have to laugh) is to see Conservative pundits get on TV and talk about how we need to cut $100Bn worth of discretionary spending to "fix" this (while continuing to spend $1Tn on the military and $1Tn on tax cuts for the top 1% each year). There is no fixing this and even a Republican said you can’t fool all of the people all of the time. THIS HOUSE OF CARDS IS TEETERING FOLKS – PLEASE BE CAREFUL OUT THERE! ‘ pervasively corrupt america is defacto bankrupt! Senate Dems find themselves in a tough spot (Washington Post) [ Tough spot? Like Iraq and a hard place … called Afghanistan … indeed they are … in a tough spot … of their own making … by a wobama prevaricating approach to most all things despite campaign promise that belie their actions, or lack thereof. ] [Pakistani troops, NATO helicopters engage in firefight 6th soldier charged in plot to kill Afghan civilians (Washington Post) [ Gen. Hamid Gul: U.S. Generals Provoking War with Pakistan Jones | Hamid Gul, former ISI chief, talks about NATO firing on Pakistani troops and the prospect of WWIII. Ludicrous Bin Laden “Porno” Claim Harks Back To CIA Fakery Watson | Spooks admitted creating hoax videotapes of Osama talking about having sex with boys. [ Yeah! This is becoming preposterous and it’s quite amazing that anyone’s believing anything they say. Next thing you know, they’ll be saying beyond the porn stash, Bin Laden was a closet Christian. Osama bin Laden: A dead nemesis perpetuated by the US government ... May 1, 2011 ... U.S. intelligence is that bin Laden needs dialysis every 3 days ... http://whatreallyhappened.com/WRHARTICLES/osama_dead.php 5-1-11, JUST MOMENTS BEFORE PRESIDENT OBAMA ANNOUNCED THAT THE US HAD KILLED OSAMA BIN LADEN, THE WHATREALLYHAPPENED WEBSITE CAME UNDER MASSIVE DISTRIBUTED DENIAL OF SERVICE ATTACK. THIS PAGE, WHICH DOCUMENTS THAT OSAMA BIN LADEN ACTUALLY DIED IN DECEMBER OF 2001, APPEARS TO BE WHAT THE WHITE HOUSE DIDN'T WANT AVAILABLE WHILE THE NEW PROPAGANDA WAS "CATAPULTED FORWARD". IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS IS THE OPENING GAMBIT IN A PLAN TO STAGE A "REVENGE" ATTACK FROM "AL QAEDA" ON THE UNITED STATES, WITH WHICH TO JUSTIFY TOTAL WAR ON THE MIDDLE EAST… FLASHBACK: Editorial: US in quagmire War in Afghanistan and Iraq costs America $1trillion “All In All It Appears That Eisenhower’s Worst Fears Have Been Realized And His Remarkable And Unique Warnings Given For Naught” Financialization and Our Increasingly Unstable Economy Roche 'The worst part of it ...Obama, who vowed change, has done almost nothing to fix any of it and in fact continues most of the policies that helped get us here in the first place’ UPDATE: MORE CLAIMS OF RACE BIAS AT JUSTICE... In emotional and personal testimony, an ex-Justice official who quit over the handling of a voter intimidation case against the New Black Panther Party accused his former employer of instructing attorneys in the civil rights division to ignore cases that involve black defendants and white victims ' Cases against Wall Street lag despite Holder’s vows to target financial fraud WP | Obama has promised to hold Wall Street accountable for the meltdown.
THE OBAMA DECEPTION’ http://albertpeia.com/obamadeceptionhighqualityversion.flv ]


Headley ties Pakistani spy agency to terror group (Washington Post) [ And, guess what? Everyone is tying american spy agency (cia) to multiple terror groups, including of course, america itself. Senate Dems find themselves in a tough spot (Washington Post) [ Tough spot? Like Iraq and a hard place … called Afghanistan … indeed they are … in a tough spot … of their own making … by a wobama prevaricating approach to most all things despite campaign promise that belie their actions, or lack thereof. ] Democrats who control the Senate are blocking bills from the GOP-led House and changing the way they are selling themselves in reelection campaigns. [ OPINION: Words can only do so much (Washington Post) [ Especially when they’re belied by misguided actions … . Pakistani troops, NATO helicopters engage in firefight 6th soldier charged in plot to kill Afghan civilians (Washington Post) [ Gen. Hamid Gul: U.S. Generals Provoking War with Pakistan Jones | Hamid Gul, former ISI chief, talks about NATO firing on Pakistani troops and the prospect of WWIII. Ludicrous Bin Laden “Porno” Claim Harks Back To CIA Fakery Watson | Spooks admitted creating hoax videotapes of Osama talking about having sex with boys. [ Yeah! This is becoming preposterous and it’s quite amazing that anyone’s believing anything they say. Next thing you know, they’ll be saying beyond the porn stash, Bin Laden was a closet Christian. Osama bin Laden: A dead nemesis perpetuated by the US government ... May 1, 2011 ... U.S. intelligence is that bin Laden needs dialysis every 3 days ... http://whatreallyhappened.com/WRHARTICLES/osama_dead.php 5-1-11, JUST MOMENTS BEFORE PRESIDENT OBAMA ANNOUNCED THAT THE US HAD KILLED OSAMA BIN LADEN, THE WHATREALLYHAPPENED WEBSITE CAME UNDER MASSIVE DISTRIBUTED DENIAL OF SERVICE ATTACK. THIS PAGE, WHICH DOCUMENTS THAT OSAMA BIN LADEN ACTUALLY DIED IN DECEMBER OF 2001, APPEARS TO BE WHAT THE WHITE HOUSE DIDN'T WANT AVAILABLE WHILE THE NEW PROPAGANDA WAS "CATAPULTED FORWARD". IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS IS THE OPENING GAMBIT IN A PLAN TO STAGE A "REVENGE" ATTACK FROM "AL QAEDA" ON THE UNITED STATES, WITH WHICH TO JUSTIFY TOTAL WAR ON THE MIDDLE EAST… FLASHBACK: Editorial: US in quagmire War in Afghanistan and Iraq costs America $1trillion Editorial: Bin Laden raid no vindication of torture (WP) [I can only wonder what the presence of substantially underrated President General Eisenhower would have meant, and truly believe this entire debacle and the nation’s decline would have been avoided. “All In All It Appears That Eisenhower’s Worst Fears Have Been Realized And His Remarkable And Unique Warnings Given For Naught” Financialization and Our Increasingly Unstable Economy Roche 'The worst part of it ...Obama, who vowed change, has done almost nothing to fix any of it and in fact continues most of the policies that helped get us here in the first place’ UPDATE: MORE CLAIMS OF RACE BIAS AT JUSTICE... In emotional and personal testimony, an ex-Justice official who quit over the handling of a voter intimidation case against the New Black Panther Party accused his former employer of instructing attorneys in the civil rights division to ignore cases that involve black defendants and white victims ' Cases against Wall Street lag despite Holder’s vows to target financial fraud WP | Obama has promised to hold Wall Street accountable for the meltdown.
THE OBAMA DECEPTION’ http://albertpeia.com/obamadeceptionhighqualityversion.flv ]

10 Facts That Prove The Bin Laden Fable Is a Contrived Hoax Paul Watson | Every indication clearly points to last Sunday’s raid being a manufactured ploy to return Americans to a state of post-9/11 intellectual castration.

War on Terror is a Reichstag Fire False Flag Operation Sartre | If you really want justice for the 911 murders, you must face reality and look within your own government for the true terrorists.

Why Does the Terrorist Kingpin Look Better Than He Did in 2001? Washington’s Blog | In the newly-release videos, Bin Laden looks better than he did years ago.

Bin Laden Hoax….The Rest Of The Story Tony Cartalucci | Even a superficial examination of mainstream media’s headlines and interviews with the CIA director himself calls into question the official narrative.

Hoax: White House Claims 4-Year-Old Bin Laden Video Is New Footage Paul Joseph Watson | Dubious Bin Laden “Home Movies” Identical To Tapes Released 4 Years Ago By Pentagon Front Group

Then, of course, there’s also: that ‘pearl harbor event’ so sought by the neo-cons / war mongers still defies explanation (ie., the ‘stand-down order’, symmetrical implosions, foreknowledge by some {who conveniently ‘missed the party’ that day}, etc.. Some links, echoing the unbelief akin to the ‘Jessica Lynch’, Tillman, etc., affairs follow. People must realize that though having but 5% of the world’s population, america can boast 76% of the world’s serial killers, and the highest crime rates in the world by far.

Dogs Drink Just Like Cats Do ... But Sloppier (LiveScience.com)

Market Downturn Approaching; Go Long the Ultra Shorts? White ‘It is time to worry about a market downturn. There has been almost consistently bad economic news reported in the U.S. in the last week. Following is a brief list (mostly from Yahoo Finance‘s Economic Calendar) of troubling news:

1. The Trade Balance for March was worse than expected at -$48.20B vs. an expected -$47.00B (the previous month’s was -$45.40B). Pundits are speculating that this will result in a lowering of the Q1 GDP estimate, which is due out May 26.

2. The Mississippi Flood is the worst in a century-- this alone will depress the Q2 GDP. Shipping down the Mississippi has slowed (or sometimes stopped). Huge numbers of casinos have closed. Farms and towns have been flooded.

3. The PPI missed at 0.80% vs. an expected 0.60%. The Core PPI missed at 0.30% vs. an expected 0.20%. Also, the continued large spread between the CPI and PPI numbers means that many companies are eating a good part of the quickly increasing input costs. This should hurt margins going forward.

4. Retail Sales (MoM) missed at +0.50% vs. an expected +0.60%.

5. Some good news Friday had the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index beat at 72.40 vs. an expected 70.00.

6. The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index missed at 11.90 vs. an expected 19.60.

7. The TIC Net Long-Term Transactions missed at $24.00B vs. an expected $57.70B.

8. The NAHB Housing Market Index missed at 16 vs. an expected 17.

9. Housing Starts missed at 0.52M vs. an expected 0.57M.

10. Building Permits missed at 0.55M vs. an expected 0.59M.

11. The Capacity Utilization Rate missed at 76.90% vs. an expected 77.70%.

12. Industrial Production (MoM) missed at 0.00% vs. an expected +0.50%.

13. Several blue chip companies such as Cisco (CSCO) and Hewlett Packard (HPQ) gave very weak guidance going forward, as though they are expecting a soft spot in the economy.

14. The Fed Minutes indicated that they had considered ending QE2 before its stated end, but decided to proceed since it was so close to the end. The Fed also talked about how to withdraw stimulus. There seemed to be no serious consideration of a QE3. There are only a few crumbs left of the manna of the market hypers (QE2).

15. Congress has allowed the debt ceiling to be exceeded. Geithner is now borrowing from Peter to pay Paul, and August 2nd is the day that he says this must stop. The Republicans are using the threat of a default as leverage to get concessions on many of the spending cuts they want. They will get spending cuts, which means tightening! Tightening tends to push the equities markets down. Hopefully the U.S. will not default.

16. The USD has been rallying. The above mentioned tightening should help the USD rally. If the USD continues to strengthen, that could cause an unwind of the USD carry trade. This would translate into selling of equities and commodities. A stronger USD would mean commodity prices would likely fall.

17. The Initial Jobless Claims were 409K vs. an expected 420K, but the previous week‘s number was revised upward to 438K. While it was pleasant to see a beat for a change, the overall trend is still bad. The 409K means the total increase in Initial Jobless Claims in the four weeks since the end of the last Nonfarm Payrolls surveys’ data period has been 159K. Additionally, the 68K jobs from the one-time McDonald’s (MCD) hiring spree that padded the last Nonfarm Payrolls report will not be there to prop up the next report on the first Friday of June. This means that the next report will be shy a total of 227K jobs. The Nonfarm Payrolls number is likely to be a big disappointment.

18. Existing Home Sales dipped in April to 5.05M vs. an expected 5.22M and a previous 5.10M.

19. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index missed terribly at 3.90 vs. an expected 20.00 and a previous 18.50. This is truly ominous when combined with the terrible NY Empire State Manufacturing Index miss (see above).

20. The Leading Indicators for April missed at -0.3% vs. an expected 0.0%.

If the U.S. news wasn’t bad enough, the EU credit crisis is alive and well. The scuttlebutt on Greece is that it is no longer a matter of “if” Greece will default (give a haircut), but “when“. Ireland may have some of its banks give haircuts to debt holders. Portugal’s bailout has been okayed in principal, although Portugal still needs to elect a government to accept it. That government also needs to approve the necessary austerity measures to qualify for it. The previous government dissolved because it wouldn’t approve such measures just a couple of months ago. Portugal is predicted to go back into recession for 2011 and 2012 based on the harshness of the necessary austerity package.

In Japan, the economy shrank quarter over quarter in Jan-Mar by -0.90% vs. an expected -0.50%. Year over year Japan's GDP declined more than expected by -3.7%. This is the second consecutive quarter of decline. Japan is technically back in a recession. Its GDP Price Index (YoY) was down -1.90% (deflation). Its Industrial Production (MoM) was down a horrendous -15.50% vs. an expected -15.10%. Its Household Confidence missed at 33.40 vs. an expected 37.30. Public debt has reached 200% of GDP. Things are so bad there that ECRI has forecast a global summer slowdown.

In sum, there are sufficient reasons to expect a downturn in the U.S. equities markets. The manna of the “hypers”-- QE2-- has been reduced to a few sparse crumbs. The signs point downward. Of course, the market has proven better men than me wrong...

After reading all of the above, what can you do? The simplest idea is simply to move a substantial amount of your equities investments into cash for the summer. Logic says the fall will be a better time for investments, presuming the EU credit crisis does not cause another global recession / slowdown.

An alternative for those who wish to stay invested might be to sell call options on most of the stocks owned. The premium for the options would give you some profit if stocks go up. The premium would give you some protection if your stocks go down.

For those of you who don't want to bother with the complications of shorting (but do want the effect), you can by the triple short ETFs: SQQQ, SDOW, SPXU (S&P500), and SRTY (Russell 2000).

For those who prefer simple shorting, you might consider shorting (for most of the summer) one or more of the major indices via vehicles such as the SPY (SPDR S&P500), the QQQ (Power Shares QQQ), the DIA (SPDR DJIA), and the IWM (iShares Russell 2000). Before you short any of the above, you should note the recent ex-Dividend dates are: SPY (3-18-2011), IWM (3-24-24), DIA (4-15-2011), and QQQ (3-18-2011). The next ex-Dividend dates will be approximately 3 months from each of the respective dates above. If you are short at the time of the ex-Dividend, you will be responsible for paying the dividend. You may wish to cover your short position for the day or week of the ex-Dividend.

If you want to manage the risk of the above described short positions, you can sell covered put options on your short position((s)). You can use the premiums from those puts to give you protection against a move upward. For some ETFs such as the SPY, there are weekly put options available. If you sell these each week, you will collect a lot of time premium.

For those still more aggressive investors, you might consider buying put spreads on one or more of the above mentioned vehicles. To be safe, you might consider expiration dates in Aug., Sept., and Oct. You almost have to use spreads to manage the risk. They cut down on the costs, making such a trade profitable with less actual movement down.’



Key Market Movers for the Coming Week: No Easy Escape From Greek Contagion



The 'Real' Mega-Bears Short ‘It's time again for the weekend update of our "Real" Mega-Bears, an inflation-adjusted overlay of three secular bear markets. It aligns the current S&P 500f rom the top of the Tech Bubble in March 2000, the Dow in of 1929, and the Nikkei 225 from its 1989 bubble high.

Click [chart] for a larger image

This chart is consistent with my preference for real (inflation-adjusted) analysis of long-term market behavior. The nominal all-time high in the index occurred in October 2007, but when we adjust for inflation, the "real" all-time high for the S&P 500 occurred in March 2000.

Here is a nominal version to help clarify the impact of inflation and deflation, which varied significantly across these three markets.

See also my alternate version, which charts the comparison from the 2007 nominal all-time high in the S&P 500. This series also includes the Nasdaq from the 2000 Tech Bubble peak.

Click [chart] for a larger image

Weekly Indicators: The Slowdown Has Been Confirmed

IMF Board Approves $36.8 Billion Loan to Portugal Bloomberg | IMF loan part of a joint bailout with the EU to stem the region’s sovereign debt crisis.

Hedge Farm! Hedge Funds Buying Up Farms for Doomsday Food Price Scenario NY Observer | “The Hedge Fund Manager Who Bought a Farm…”

The Euro Doom Scenario Starts With What’s Happening In Spain Right Now Automatic Earth | First: Spain falls in summer; bonds are dumped. Seemingly endless EU/IMF negotiations follow.

Strauss-Kahn: new claims of sexual misconduct add to pressure on former IMF chief London Telegraph | Fresh allegations of sexual misconduct have emerged against the former IMF head.

Here Is What Happens After Greece Defaults When it comes to the topic of Greece, by now everyone is sick of prevaricating European politicians who even they admit are lying openly to the media, and tired of conflicted investment banks trying to make the situation appear more palatable if only they dress it in some verbally appropriate if totally ridiculous phrase (which just so happens contracts to SLiME)

The Euro Doom Scenario Starts With What’s Happening In Spain Right Now This becomes the start of the endgame. Germany and Holland -perhaps France- may still be able to sell some debt, but other EU countries are locked out of financial markets. Austerity measures even in Holland reach draconic levels.

IMF Board Approves $36.8 Billion Loan to Portugal The International Monetary Fund approved a 26 billion-euro ($36.8 billion) loan to Portugal as part of a joint bailout with the European Union in the latest effort to stem the region’s sovereign debt crisis.

Spanish protesters cheer for ‘world revolution’ as ban on demonstration takes effect

MADRID — Thousands of protesters in Madrid furious over soaring unemployment staged a silent protest and then erupted in cheers of joy as a 48-hour ban on their demonstration took effect on Saturday.

States are Draining Unemployment Insurance Funds Like Crazy

On the Fence, Watching for an Apocalypse Alexandre ‘Uncommon as it has been, the Federal Reserve’s dual quantitative easing exercises have elicited numerous forecasts, and most of them have centered around upcoming inflationary pressures. In part, the Treasury markets have supported that perception for periods of time. And while the Fed’s attempt to inject liquidity into the economic landscape was designed to counter deflationary forces, the end result has been disappointing thus far.

Regardless of everyone’s take on the subject, the best story teller is the flow of capital. Thus, I include the chart below, which depicts the trajectory of ten year Treasury yields and the timeline of quantitative easing. Because a picture is worth a thousand opinions.

Click to enlarge:

http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2011/5/19/765325-13058128599075-Carlos-X--Alexandre.png

Whether one views CPI and PPI data as reliable or not is completely irrelevant. We can debate the issue until we turn blue in the face. But the multi-billion dollar Treasury market is stating that inflation doesn't exist. This after responding to the initial perception that inflation was a matter of time. And we’re talking private capital and independent thinkers, not the so called "manipulation" by government statisticians.

As QE1 got under way, the bond market sold off, pricing an expectation of higher inflation ahead. About midway through the process, the lack of inflation, among other factors, became apparent to market participants, and ten year yields stayed roughly between 3.5% and 4.0% until QE1 ended in March of 2010. Investors looked around and couldn’t pinpoint what the quantitative easing program had actually done.

Yields dropped in a jiffy, from 4.0% to 2.5% until the Federal Reserve announced another round of easy money. Sure enough – and the market thought the damage this time around would be real – rates popped to around 3.75% and then took a deep breath. Once again, the market could not smell the familiar inflationary stink and yields dropped to today’s 3.15%.

Well, the quantitative easing sequel is about to end its run, and the talk of QE3 is making its rounds. The end result thus far, as the broad market sees it? No damage -- and no solution either. In addition, the flow of recent economic data highlights a return to dismal growth, with a few encouraging signs along the way.

In some circles relying on CPI data is sacrilegious, at best. However, in its absence we can only point to anecdotal evidence for lack of a better measurement. And some of us only see what we’re looking for.

Reuters touched on the subject with the article “Inflation hits 2-1/2 year high, seen peaking”. Then it added:

The 12-month increase at 1.3% was at its highest level since February 2010. The Fed, however, would like to see that closer to 2% over time.

MarketWatch added a different perspective to the subject. Even if we feel that government data is massaged, the market always sings to its own tune, fully discounting official numbers.

The gap between inflation-linked Treasury debt yields and regular Treasury yields narrowed after the government's consumer price index report on Friday, indicating investors see a smaller risk of inflation in coming years.

The Financial Times published an article that highlighted the shortcomings of conventional wisdom, while providing a comparison between the U.S. and Japan’s monetary maneuvering.

There are fears that the balance sheet of the Fed may be too large already, but this doesn’t square with the experience of Japan. At $2,600bn, the current Fed balance sheet represents approximately 18% of U.S. gross domestic product. By comparison, the balance sheet of the Bank of Japan equals approximately 30% of Japanese GDP. If the Fed were to hold as many assets on a relative basis, it could conduct another $1,800bn worth of quantitative easing. That would amount to QE3, QE4, and QE5 (at the same size as QE2) just to get to where Japan is today.

And what exactly is conventional about the times that we live in? Not a thing. Thus, thinking outside the box, as the cliché goes, is what is needed. Because the old and new tricks are not fixing the problem.

However, an understanding of why QE has not delivered the goods and why deflationary pressures persist is required. As I have stated before, the reason behind the money printing exercise’s failure to accomplish its goals is quite simple: The consumer is not responding.

And where are we, as far as stocks are concerned? From an equity market perspective, the generally accepted belief that financials outperform when rates are low is not materializing, and that goes to the unusual nature of the investment environment and the lack of reference points. Banks -- not brokers or investment houses -- are the "canary in the coal mine."

Thus far my stance has been bearish on the U.S. economy -- and continues to be so -- and bullish on the equity markets. That is, strictly based on capital flows. However, it appears that we are coming to a crossroads where market perceptions of the future are meeting a screaming economic reality, and vigilance on market sentiment, or capital flows as I prefer, will determine the turning point.

Almost two months ago, in my April 4 post "Will S&P 500 Shoot for 1,500", I had given 6-18 months for the bull to live. We're about even from that date, with the S&P 500 0.40 points higher as of last Friday's close. Now I'm sensing that the realization that the recovery will not develop as perceived is registering into the psyche of the general investment community faster than anticipated.

Is it because it's May and one should go away? If only life was that simple.’

Deja Vu - Will the End of QE Lead to 20% Correction? ‘The stock market updates investors on a need-to-know basis. Obviously, Mr. Market feels that all we need to know is available on a real time bases ... no matter how much we want to peek into the future.

One heavily debated question is how the withdrawal of QE2 cash will affect stocks.

Here we will examine two schools of thought. One is plain vanilla, straight to the point, and requires no fantasy or analytical ability. It's so deceptively simple it might just be right.

The second viewpoint is more like a rocky road mocha almond fudge kind of approach that includes whipped cream and considers various variables.

Plain Vanilla Approach

The plain vanilla approach simply asks:

1) What was QE2 supposed to do?

2) What did QE2 accomplish?

3) What happened when the last round of QE stopped?

1) What was QE2 supposed to do? Ben Bernanke's goal was to create a wealth ripple effect by artificially inflating stock prices.

2) What did QE2 do? The stock market rallied. In addition to playing the yield curve, big banks (NYSEArca: KBE - News) and financial conglomerates (NYSEArca: XLF - News) were given the license to 'invest' free money uninhibited and indiscriminately.

Look at large cap (NYSEArca: IWB - News), mid cap (NYSEArca: MDY - News) and small cap (NYSEArca: IJR - News) stocks. They are all up.

Look at the nine main S&P industry sectors: Consumer discretionary (NYSEArca: XLY - News), consumer staples (NYSEArca: XLP - News), technology (NYSEArca: XLK - News), industrials , materials, utilities, health care and energy. All sectors, whether cyclically sensitive or not, are up.

Ironically, the only sector missing in the line up of this year's success story is ... financials. Yes, the sector that's been gorging on free money is in the red. What does the market know that we don't? We shall soon find out.

3) What happened when the last round of QE stopped? QE1 came to its conclusion in April 2010. From April to June 2010 the main U.S. indexes a la Dow Jones (DJI: ^DJI), S&P (SNP: ^GSPC), and Nasdaq (Nasdaq: ^IXIC) lost around 20% until Mr. Bernanke carefully planted the seed of QE2 hope.

Rocky Road Mocha Almond Fudge Approach

As the name implies, compared to plain vanilla, this approach considers more variables to come up with an educated, but not overanalyzed, conclusion.

Like water in a bathtub floats all the rubber ducks, QE2 has floated all the stocks.

The key question is where will cash come from when the QE2 spigot is turned off?

The most recent data from the Investment Company Institute shows that mutual fund cash levels are at 3.4%. This is an all-time low. What does this mean? If you plot mutual fund cash levels against the S&P you will see that cash levels were at multi-decade lows at the 2000 and 2007 peaks and at a multi-year high during the March 2009 low.

Mutual fund managers as a group, follow the crowd like most everyone else. It's therefore best to take their actions as a contrarian indicator. From a supply/demand perspective this makes sense too. If mutual fund managers are already invested near the max, they don't have much money left to drive stocks up further (detailed analysis featured in the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter).

Another way to calculate 'investable cash' is to look at margin debt and available cash. The NYSE publishes data of margin debt and free cash of member brokerage firms. Based on this data, 'investable cash' is at the lowest level since the 2000 and 2007 peak (detailed analysis of mutual fund assets and 'investable cash' is featured in the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter).

The conclusion to the cash flow question seems simple and logical. There is very limited new cash left to lift the 'rubber ducks' once QE2 has run its course …’

Top 3 Reasons Markets were Down After Europe Debt Woes Continue

Euro Debt Dumping Pushes VIX to This Scary Level

Drowning in Debt NyaradiDebt, debt and more debt flared into global financial crises last week as central banks from Greece, to Spain and the United States grappled with the imperiled finances of sinking nation states. Sovereign debt, along with bearish technical and fundamental indicators, makes this a treacherous moment for stock market investors both at home and abroad.

On My Investing Radar

The NYSE Bullish Percent Index is one of the major charts I watch for long term trends in ETFs and the U.S. stock market and the NYSEBP turned bearish this week which is yet another warning flag going forward into the “sell in May” and go away period. Click to enlarge:

http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2011/5/23/saupload_bpny052211_300x261.png
Chart courtesy of stockcharts.com

The NYSE Bullish Percent Index measures the percent of all NYSE stocks on a point and figure buy signal, and this index switched to “bear confirmed” as of May 20, 2011 which indicates a significant change of tone for the broad U.S. stock market.

http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2011/5/23/saupload_spx052211_300x300.png
Chart courtesy of stockcharts.com

This traditional chart of the S&P 500 (SPY) shows the index below its 20 Day Moving Average, which now becomes resistance, and above its 50 Day Moving Average which represents major support. A break below the 1325 level on the S&P 500 would represent a serious breakdown and make steeper declines a more likely possibility ahead for ETFs across all asset classes.

The View From 35,000 Feet for Global Stock Markets

Sovereign debt was the issue of the week as countries around the world struggle with what increasingly look like unsustainable debt loads.

Greece: The problem child of Europe continued causing problems this week with Fitch cutting their ratings and putting the country on negative outlook while their Prime Minister says there’s no way they will need to restructure their debt. But more and more it’s becoming obvious that at least a “soft reprofiling” might be on the way and the market anticipates problems ahead with the 10 Year Bond yield hitting new highs last week.

The big problem here is that a number of big European banks are on the hook for Greek debt and some fear that default could trigger a significant banking crisis/collapse in Europe.

Portugal: The IMF approved a $36 Billion bailout for Portugal to give it some “breathing room” to deal with its economic problems.

Italy: S&P lowered Italy’s outlook to negative.

Spain: This “too big to fail” country was wracked with demonstrations this week in defiance of a nationwide ban as mostly young people protested a national unemployment rate of approximately 20% that reaches as high as nearly 50% among youth in their teens and early twenties. The Socialists are forecast to take heavy losses in this weekend’s elections and several articles in the general media pointed to the possibility of piles of “hidden debt” being uncovered in the provinces after the elections, as some reports indicate that debt has been kept off the official books to make things seem better than they are.

United States: The Treasury Department continues to take “extraordinary” measures to keep the U.S. afloat as it has maxed out its credit card of $14.3 Trillion. D-Day for a debt limit increase is August 2nd when the country would need to borrow again or default. Vice President Biden is leading talks about cuts and tax increases but Republicans and Democrats appear to be trillions of dollars apart as the clock ticks on.

Weekly Economic and Financial Developments:

As I reported in one of my mid-week updates the news was mostly bad:

  • Japan has reentered recession, its economy plunging for the First Quarter at a -3.7% annualized rate, twice as deeply as expected.
  • May Empire Manufacturing Index: 11.9 vs 21.7 previously
  • April Housing Starts: 523,000 versus 585,000 previously
  • April Building Permits: 551,000 versus 574,000 previously
  • April Industrial Production: 0.0% versus 0.7% previously
  • April Existing Home Sales: 5.05 million versus 5.09 previously, a -13% year over year decline
  • May Philadelphia Fed: 3.9 versus 18.5 previously, down from 43 just two months ago which was the highest reading since 1984.
  • April Leading Indicators: -0.3 versus -0.7, the first decline since last June

The only glimmer of positive data was in Initial Unemployment Claims which declined to 409,000 versus 438,000 last week, but still above the psychologically and statistically significant 400,000 level.

What This All Means To You, the ETF or Stock Market Investor

What this means to us is that risk in the U.S. stock market is running high and the chance of a significant correction is relatively high.

At Wall Street Sector Selector, we continue to expect lower prices ahead in global stock markets and maintain our inverse ETF and put option positions.

The Investing Week Ahead

Major Economic and Financial Issues/Themes

Lots of important economic reports will come our way this week and be potential market movers. We’ll get news from the beleaguered housing market and on Thursday we’ll see the second estimate of the all important Q1 GDP.

Tuesday: April New Home Sales

Wednesday: April Durable Goods

Thursday: Initial Unemployment Claims, Continuing Claims, Q1 GDP second estimate

Friday: April Personal Income, April Personal Spending, March Pending Home Sales …’

All Three Major Indices Back Below 50-Day Moving Averages

- Weekly Market Outlook: Actual Employment Numbers Are Weak Headley ‘For the third week in a row, stocks lost ground. It wasn’t a big loss (only about a third of a percent), but after three straight weeks of them, questions have to be asked. We’ll ask them all below, right after we take a bigger-picture look at recent and upcoming economic data.

Economic Calendar

Last week was a big one on the real estate front, but not a good one. Starts fell from 585K to 523K, and permits fell from 5574K to 551K; both were well short of expectations. Existing home sales also fell, from 5.09 million to 5.05 million…. well beneath the forecasted rate of 5.23 million.

Factories, however, appeared to remain busy. Capacity utilization stands at 76.9% as of the end of last month, which is just a tad under the prior month’s 77.0%. Industrial production growth was flat last month, but the productivity index (not cited on the calendar below, but plotted on our chart) is still hovering at multi-year highs. Though no ‘growth’ is evident, just maintaining output levels can still led to the stability needed to foster broad economic growth. Take a look (click charts to expand):

Capacity Utilization and Industrial Productivity Index
http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2011/5/23/saupload_052211_capacity_productivity.png

On the joblessness front, we’re seeing what appears to be tepid improvement, via a diminishing number of new and continuing unemployment claims. The former fell from 438K to 409K last week, while the latter fell from 3.792 million to 3.711 million.

That said, there’s an employment number you rarely (if ever) hear… the actual number of working Americans. That number isn’t getting better. As of the end of April, 139.6 million U.S. workers are actually employed. That’s about the same number of employed workers we saw in the middle of 2009, and the improvement since the middle of last year has almost been immeasurable. How can this happen while claims figures are dropping? Simple – those claims figures don’t include the unemployed who have (1) seen their benefits expire, (2) have stopped filing claims, and (3) are employed, but underemployed.

Take a look at the chart of the actual number of working Americans:

Employed U.S. Workers
http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2011/5/23/saupload_052211_employed.png

And as always, the economic details for the prior and coming week:

Economic Calendar
http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2011/5/23/saupload_052211_econ_data.png

The coming week will be relatively busy, but not everything is hard-hitting. Here are the biggies to watch out for.

  • Tuesday: The real estate picture ill be rounded out with new homes sales levels for April. Look for an annualized rate of 300K per year.
  • Wednesday: More real estate data… the FHFA Housing Price Index, which is a broad barometer for all home value changes.
  • Thursday: New and ingoing unemployment claims, as usual. Look for slight drops for both.
  • Friday: How sick or healthy is the consumer? Changes in income levels and spending levels will tell the tale. Income is expected to be up 0.4%, and right back to our old ‘spend more than we make’ ways, consumer spending is expected to have increased by 0.5% for April.
  • Friday: Pending home sales put the final touches on the most recent real estate update; the pros are expecting a 1.8% dip for March.

S&P 500 Index

All told, the S&P 500 (SPX) (SPY) gave up 4.5 point (-0.33%) last week to end Friday’s session at 1333.27. Had it not been for Friday’s 10.3% loss though, the market would have ended the week with a gain….. not that Friday’s something we can just delete from the scoreboard.

As for what’s next though, that’s a little less clear, but there are only a couple of likely paths.

Just for the record, if Friday’s dip really is the current direction of things and we’re pointed lower – as it appears we are – then the SPX has just made its second lower highs after making a second lower low (framed by pink lines). Ergo, a downtrend is in place…that’s undeniable. The question is where it might stop falling, and reverse.

While it’s not happened yet, a floor that could do the trick is immediately below - the 50-day moving average line (purple) at 1326. Just a tad under that level is the 100-day line (gray), at 1313. If either or both of those lines fail to stop the bleeding, odds are good the S&P 500 will be paying a visit to the lower 50-day Bollinger band at 1278. What happens after that is anyone’s guess.

The other possibility here is a bullish one, beginning with a break back above that upper purple/resistance line, which by default would coincide with a move back above the 20-day moving average line (blue). If that happens, then the upper Bollinger band at 1372 becomes the new target.

In the meantime we’re in limbo, although we have to acknowledge the bears are currently in control. As such, we have to give the greater odds to the bears right now (though we wouldn’t be digging in too deep on either side of the fence).

Notice how the heavier volume days were all pullbacks, while the two rallies – Wednesday and Thursday – were on light volume.

SPX & VIX Daily HC
http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2011/5/23/saupload_052211_sp500_daily.png

What about the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) (VXX) (VXZ) in all this? Remember, last week was expiration week, which can skew the VIX and make it somewhat misleading. Or in this case, the VIX was oddly unscrewed (it closed on Friday about where it closed the prior week). That containment, however, is still a form of skew. We want to see how it starts to move in Monday and Tuesday before coming to any conclusions.

In the bigger picture though, the VIX is still uncomfortably low, meaning confidence/complacency is dangerously high; these bulls will need some sort of attitude adjustment sooner than later. A couple of closes above the VIX’s 50-day average line at 18.0 will start that process.

Since we usually add it, we’ll once again insert a weekly chart of the S&P 500 to out the daily one in perspective. What’s becoming clearer here is that the broad bullishness is losing momentum, and the bears keep testing that 100-day line.

SPX & VIX Weekly Chart
http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2011/5/23/saupload_052211_sp500_weekly.png

Sector Performance

Things were shaken and stirred last week on the sector front. Healthcare (XLV) is still out in front, but Telecom (XTL) is quietly sneaking up, a complete turnaround from telecom’s dismal performance through most of last year.

At the bearish end of the spectrum, Financials (XLF) have officially gone from bad to worse. Notice, however, that there were few places to hide last week.

Sector Performance, since March 16th
http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2011/5/23/saupload_052211_sector_performance.png

PIIGS Alert: Italy Loses It’s Wings

Europe's Debt Pressure Squeezes U.S. Stocks

Stocks Shed 1%-1.6% to Start Week

Gold, silver coins to be legal currency in Utah From the Trenches | It had to happen soon or later.

The Euro Doom Scenario Starts With What’s Happening In Spain Right Now Automatic Earth | First: Spain falls in summer; bonds are dumped. Seemingly endless EU/IMF negotiations follow.

Strauss-Kahn: new claims of sexual misconduct add to pressure on former IMF chief London Telegraph | Fresh allegations of sexual misconduct have emerged against the former IMF head.

How Many People Will Go Hungry When The U.S. Dollar Ponzi Scheme Collapses? The U.S. Dollar which is not really even a dollar but rater a “Federal Reserve Note” is nothing more than a mirage in the desert. Federal Reserve Notes are just that, Notes. What is a Note? It is a formal piece of paper that says one person owes another money, in this case the Federal Reserve.

Eurozone Debt Crisis Deepens Sending Euro Lower And Gold To New Record At EUR 1,080/oz The euro, global equities and bonds in peripheral Eurozone countries are all lower this morning on heightened concerns about the debt crisis in the Eurozone.

Signs of division between IMF and Europe over bailouts The International Monetary Fund pressed Europe on Friday for stronger steps to tackle the region’s debt crisis, saying countries needed access to more funding to stay afloat.

China Prepares To Launch Gold ETFs As Utah Becomes First State To Make Gold And Silver Legal Tender Following Friday’s news that China has now surpassed India as the world’s largest buyer of gold, it is becoming increasingly obvious that the country is trying to capitalize on the popular interest in the precious metal by transferring the trading infrastructure away from US to domestic capital markets.

Harold Camping: the heart of the doomsday frenzy (Los Angeles Times)

The last-minute rapture reading list (Los Angeles Times) [Drudgereport: Preacher made same prediction in 1994... Doomsday church thriving, worth $72 million... [Previous: ‘End of Days’ message rolls into D.C. (Washington Post) The potentially rotten news that the world will end on May 21 arrived plastered on a caravan of RVs. [ Gee … little premature … you know, that 2012, end of Mayan calendar, Nostradamus thing … I previously weighed in / wrote: Why do Americans still dislike atheists? (Washington Post) [ And not just americans … Why? First and foremost because there is a God. Second, it is intellectually dishonest to be an atheist. Specifically, there is absolutely no evidence to dispute the existence of God. While one might similarly argue that there is no evidence to suggest there is a God (which I would dispute), which for most is a fair statement, the same would yield at best, if intellectually honest, the position of ‘agnostic’. I can totally understand and even empathize with the view of the agnostic. After all, at this point, there seems to be ‘no rhyme nor reason’ at all. But, think binary, positives / negatives. Just too many negatives. Think ‘capital punishment’. No, the world’s not going to end in 2012 as some fear. Rather, think slow burn; decades at best; then ‘poof’. In the scheme of things, this world’s just not that important (apes, notochordates, and initially single celled organisms).

LinkedIn: Getting it while the getting is good (Los Angeles Times) Column: The firm's hot IPO should make the Fed happy as it tries to get money moving in the economy. But what happens when the latest stimulus program ends? [ Hot IPO? More like ‘Twilight Zone’ time and Dave thinks so as well … In reminder of '90s, LinkedIn has big first day (AP) - There was an unmistakable echo of the dot-com boom Thursday on Wall Street. Rod Serling Now Linked-In : Dave's Daily It definitely remains a really strange market. Fed Governor Fisher summed things up nicely Thursday stating: "We've gone from too little liquidity to too much." He's definitely off the main Fed talking points but a little honesty explains the "more money than brains" market. The LinkedIn(LNKD_) IPO typifies this Thursday. You may not be aware of it but word on the street is only ten institutions were privileged to obtain freshly issued shares. I wonder who was favored with this gift; care to guess? You couldn't get a collection of bad economic news much worse than what appeared today. While Jobless Claims were marginally lower given previous adjustments, the moving average of claims reached six-month highs; Home Sales were down...again; the Philly Fed reading came in at 3.9 vs 18 expected; and Leading Indicators were lower 0.3 vs flat expectations. These were dreadful but bulls brushed them off hoping for more POMO and extended ZIRP. Perhaps the stupid people are the ones not playing ball, given rising markets on this lousy economic news. LinkedIn should remind everyone of dotcom experiences but it's really about too much liquidity. Commodity prices were generally lower with economic data while the dollar was weaker and so too were base and precious metals. Bonds were flat overall…’ ]

Obama praises CIA’s role in bin Laden killing (Washington Post) [ Kinda like that gay sex and crack cocaine use by wobama (the cia’s into that cocaine business in a very big way) with Larry Sinclair (from Sinclair’s affidavit); their mutual lovefest … they (cia/wobama) just ‘can’t get enough of each other these days’ … all that stroking … and as with most such ‘group therapies’, such mutual support though contraindicated in terms of reality, has become all too cloyingly, disingenuously regular, however ineffective nobody’s buying their b***s*** anymore … OPINION: Words can only do so much (Washington Post) [ Especially when they’re belied by misguided actions … . Pakistani troops, NATO helicopters engage in firefight 6th soldier charged in plot to kill Afghan civilians (Washington Post) [ Gen. Hamid Gul: U.S. Generals Provoking War with Pakistan Jones | Hamid Gul, former ISI chief, talks about NATO firing on Pakistani troops and the prospect of WWIII. Ludicrous Bin Laden “Porno” Claim Harks Back To CIA Fakery Watson | Spooks admitted creating hoax videotapes of Osama talking about having sex with boys. [ Yeah! This is becoming preposterous and it’s quite amazing that anyone’s believing anything they say. Next thing you know, they’ll be saying beyond the porn stash, Bin Laden was a closet Christian. Osama bin Laden: A dead nemesis perpetuated by the US government ... May 1, 2011 ... U.S. intelligence is that bin Laden needs dialysis every 3 days ... http://whatreallyhappened.com/WRHARTICLES/osama_dead.php 5-1-11, JUST MOMENTS BEFORE PRESIDENT OBAMA ANNOUNCED THAT THE US HAD KILLED OSAMA BIN LADEN, THE WHATREALLYHAPPENED WEBSITE CAME UNDER MASSIVE DISTRIBUTED DENIAL OF SERVICE ATTACK. THIS PAGE, WHICH DOCUMENTS THAT OSAMA BIN LADEN ACTUALLY DIED IN DECEMBER OF 2001, APPEARS TO BE WHAT THE WHITE HOUSE DIDN'T WANT AVAILABLE WHILE THE NEW PROPAGANDA WAS "CATAPULTED FORWARD". IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS IS THE OPENING GAMBIT IN A PLAN TO STAGE A "REVENGE" ATTACK FROM "AL QAEDA" ON THE UNITED STATES, WITH WHICH TO JUSTIFY TOTAL WAR ON THE MIDDLE EAST… FLASHBACK: Editorial: US in quagmire War in Afghanistan and Iraq costs America $1trillion “All In All It Appears That Eisenhower’s Worst Fears Have Been Realized And His Remarkable And Unique Warnings Given For Naught” Financialization and Our Increasingly Unstable Economy Roche 'The worst part of it ...Obama, who vowed change, has done almost nothing to fix any of it and in fact continues most of the policies that helped get us here in the first place’ UPDATE: MORE CLAIMS OF RACE BIAS AT JUSTICE... In emotional and personal testimony, an ex-Justice official who quit over the handling of a voter intimidation case against the New Black Panther Party accused his former employer of instructing attorneys in the civil rights division to ignore cases that involve black defendants and white victims ' Cases against Wall Street lag despite Holder’s vows to target financial fraud WP | Obama has promised to hold Wall Street accountable for the meltdown.
THE OBAMA DECEPTION’ http://albertpeia.com/obamadeceptionhighqualityversion.flv

Harold Camping: the heart of the doomsday frenzy (Los Angeles Times)

The last-minute rapture reading list (Los Angeles Times)

Signs of the apocalypse Quinn: It’s not the end of the world Petri: Harold Camping’s actual calculations (Washington Post) [ Drudgereport: Preacher made same prediction in 1994... Doomsday church thriving, worth $72 million... [Previous: ‘End of Days’ message rolls into D.C. (Washington Post) The potentially rotten news that the world will end on May 21 arrived plastered on a caravan of RVs. [ Gee … little premature … you know, that 2012, end of Mayan calendar, Nostradamus thing … I previously weighed in / wrote: Why do Americans still dislike atheists? (Washington Post) [ And not just americans … Why? First and foremost because there is a God. Second, it is intellectually dishonest to be an atheist. Specifically, there is absolutely no evidence to dispute the existence of God. While one might similarly argue that there is no evidence to suggest there is a God (which I would dispute), which for most is a fair statement, the same would yield at best, if intellectually honest, the position of ‘agnostic’. I can totally understand and even empathize with the view of the agnostic. After all, at this point, there seems to be ‘no rhyme nor reason’ at all. But, think binary, positives / negatives. Just too many negatives. Think ‘capital punishment’. No, the world’s not going to end in 2012 as some fear. Rather, think slow burn; decades at best; then ‘poof’. In the scheme of things, this world’s just not that important (apes, notochordates, and initially single celled organisms). Kind of akin to what I previously wrote: (God doesn’t care that you wrestle a girl who wants to wrestle!) Boy wrestler forfeits match to female opponent... [ What a homo! Wow! I feel sorry for those guys she actually beat (20 of them – her record was 20 and 13) … they’ll probably never get over it … nor should they … I have to rethink my regard for Iowa, Iowa state wrestling now presuming such stalwart championship teams to be the products of out-of-state imports … as for the guy who forfeited, he could have easily and gently taken her down (you can easily do that with a lesser opponent), got her in a double grapevine and grind her in a certain way into the mat, and when she was in the throws of convulsive orgasm, she’d unwittingly arch her back, thereby pressing her own shoulder blades to the mat, thereby pinning herself, thus enabling the homo to say in a manner of speaking that he was making heterosexual love not war with her ……… how pathetic and preposterous this was … and, let me remind the homo that God doesn’t care that you wrestle a girl who wants to wrestle! ]

Senate Dems find themselves in a tough spot (Washington Post) [ Tough spot? Like Iraq and a hard place … called Afghanistan … indeed they are … in a tough spot … of their own making … by a wobama prevaricating approach to most all things despite campaign promise that belie their actions, or lack thereof. ] Democrats who control the Senate are blocking bills from the GOP-led House and changing the way they are selling themselves in reelection campaigns. [ OPINION: Words can only do so much (Washington Post) [ Especially when they’re belied by misguided actions … . Pakistani troops, NATO helicopters engage in firefight 6th soldier charged in plot to kill Afghan civilians (Washington Post) [ Gen. Hamid Gul: U.S. Generals Provoking War with Pakistan Jones | Hamid Gul, former ISI chief, talks about NATO firing on Pakistani troops and the prospect of WWIII. Ludicrous Bin Laden “Porno” Claim Harks Back To CIA Fakery Watson | Spooks admitted creating hoax videotapes of Osama talking about having sex with boys. [ Yeah! This is becoming preposterous and it’s quite amazing that anyone’s believing anything they say. Next thing you know, they’ll be saying beyond the porn stash, Bin Laden was a closet Christian. Osama bin Laden: A dead nemesis perpetuated by the US government ... May 1, 2011 ... U.S. intelligence is that bin Laden needs dialysis every 3 days ... http://whatreallyhappened.com/WRHARTICLES/osama_dead.php 5-1-11, JUST MOMENTS BEFORE PRESIDENT OBAMA ANNOUNCED THAT THE US HAD KILLED OSAMA BIN LADEN, THE WHATREALLYHAPPENED WEBSITE CAME UNDER MASSIVE DISTRIBUTED DENIAL OF SERVICE ATTACK. THIS PAGE, WHICH DOCUMENTS THAT OSAMA BIN LADEN ACTUALLY DIED IN DECEMBER OF 2001, APPEARS TO BE WHAT THE WHITE HOUSE DIDN'T WANT AVAILABLE WHILE THE NEW PROPAGANDA WAS "CATAPULTED FORWARD". IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS IS THE OPENING GAMBIT IN A PLAN TO STAGE A "REVENGE" ATTACK FROM "AL QAEDA" ON THE UNITED STATES, WITH WHICH TO JUSTIFY TOTAL WAR ON THE MIDDLE EAST… FLASHBACK: Editorial: US in quagmire War in Afghanistan and Iraq costs America $1trillion Editorial: Bin Laden raid no vindication of torture (WP) [I can only wonder what the presence of substantially underrated President General Eisenhower would have meant, and truly believe this entire debacle and the nation’s decline would have been avoided. “All In All It Appears That Eisenhower’s Worst Fears Have Been Realized And His Remarkable And Unique Warnings Given For Naught” Financialization and Our Increasingly Unstable Economy Roche 'The worst part of it ...Obama, who vowed change, has done almost nothing to fix any of it and in fact continues most of the policies that helped get us here in the first place’ UPDATE: MORE CLAIMS OF RACE BIAS AT JUSTICE... In emotional and personal testimony, an ex-Justice official who quit over the handling of a voter intimidation case against the New Black Panther Party accused his former employer of instructing attorneys in the civil rights division to ignore cases that involve black defendants and white victims ' Cases against Wall Street lag despite Holder’s vows to target financial fraud WP | Obama has promised to hold Wall Street accountable for the meltdown.
THE OBAMA DECEPTION’ http://albertpeia.com/obamadeceptionhighqualityversion.flv ]



How the U.S could lose its credit rating (Washington Post) [ Kinda’ like how the west was won, then lost … but, Davis knows: Davis ‘This is how we pay off our current debts and I think bondholders are simply happy to get anything out of a country that admits it owes $15Tn (1/4 of global GDP) but probably owes closer to $60Tn (entire global GDP) in the form of unfunded liabilities. The funniest thing about this (and you have to laugh) is to see Conservative pundits get on TV and talk about how we need to cut $100Bn worth of discretionary spending to "fix" this (while continuing to spend $1Tn on the military and $1Tn on tax cuts for the top 1% each year). There is no fixing this and even a Republican said you can’t fool all of the people all of the time. THIS HOUSE OF CARDS IS TEETERING FOLKS – PLEASE BE CAREFUL OUT THERE! ‘

A taste of Navy SEAL training (Washington Post) The Extreme SEAL Experience gives participants a hint of what it takes to become one of the Navy’s elite. [ How ‘bout more than just a taste of serious math / economics training … you know, the kind that in real terms determines whether such can / should even exist. After all, the nation is defacto bankrupt … Davis ‘This is how we pay off our current debts and I think bondholders are simply happy to get anything out of a country that admits it owes $15Tn (1/4 of global GDP) but probably owes closer to $60Tn (entire global GDP) in the form of unfunded liabilities. The funniest thing about this (and you have to laugh) is to see Conservative pundits get on TV and talk about how we need to cut $100Bn worth of discretionary spending to "fix" this (while continuing to spend $1Tn on the military and $1Tn on tax cuts for the top 1% each year). There is no fixing this and even a Republican said you can’t fool all of the people all of the time. THIS HOUSE OF CARDS IS TEETERING FOLKS – PLEASE BE CAREFUL OUT THERE! ‘



National / World

Pakistan Gun Battle Rages as Militants Storm Naval Air Base Bloomberg | Stormed premises with rockets and grenades targeting surveillance aircraft provided by the U.S.

The War on Ron Paul Susan Westfall | The federal government we live with today no longer serves the interests of the American people.

New Documentary Exclusively For Prison Planet.tv Subscribers: College Conspiracy Prison Planet.tv | Just one of numerous bombshell new videos to land at Prison Planet.tv this week.

TSA Backs Down from Prom Night Grope Kurt Nimmo | Government searching students is now a well-established practice at public schools.

Corsi: Trump Conspired With Obama To Neutralize Birther Controversy Author says he is about to blow the whistle on who helped forged the long form birth certificate.

US and Pakistan Near Open War Webster Tarpley | China put United States on notice that Washington’s planned attack on Pakistan will be interpreted as an act of aggression against Beijing.

Fearing The Bottom Will Fall Out If Interest Rates Rise Bob Chapman | A staggering amount of people have been withdrawing from 401K’s, and Wall Street and government do not like it.

Is the US Driving the World Towards World War III: How Many SEALs Died at Osama Compound? Paul Craig Roberts |Pakistani News has provided an eye witness to the attack on the alleged compound of bin Laden.

Herald Sun: Alex Jones Was Right About Schwarzenegger’s Megalomania Herald Sun | It wasn’t that long ago that the deluded voters of California so loved their Governor that 65% support him.

Obama would raid Pakistan again if militant found Reuters | The President would “take the shot” if the U.S. discovered another “high-value target” in Pakistan.

Herald Sun: Alex Jones Was Right About Schwarzenegger’s Megalomania Syndicated radio host Alex Jones, once a Republican, saw things differently: “He’s a bully and a preening peacock who is totally power-mad,” he said. “For God’s sake, don’t let this megalomaniac become president.”

Obama – would raid Pakistan again if militant found U.S. President Barack Obama would approve a new incursion into Pakistan if the United States found another leading militant there, he said in a BBC interview broadcast on Sunday.

Is the US Driving the World Towards World War III: Osama’s Alleged Compound. How Many SEALs Died? In a sensational and explosive TV report, the Pakistani News Agency has provided a live interview with an eye witness to the US attack on the alleged compound of Osama bin Laden.

Obama To Stay In Royal Suite With Huge Portrait Of King George III The three principal rooms of the suite are furnished in a style that gives the visiting head of State an idea of how British Royalty lived in previous centuries.

Obama Gushes Over British Royal Family The president went on to say that the Queen is a symbol of “the best of England” to the entire world.

Video: Jerome Corsi To Release Details On Key Media Person Who Allegedly Helped Create Obama’s New Birth Certificate World Net Daily’s Dr. Jerome Corsi will soon release details of the key person who helped create Obama’s newly forged birth certificate. Dr. Corsi reports the key person is in the Media. Also, more explosive details revealed during today’s interview on Infowars Radio Show regarding Obama’s destroyed birth records in Kenya and more…

New Al-Qaeda chief pledges major attack on London to avenge Bin Laden’s death Osama Bin Laden’s replacement as leader of Al-Qaeda is planning a major terrorist attack on London, ordering his followers to ‘crush’ the city.

Iran Just Arrested 30 People In An Alleged U.S. Spy Network Iran has arrested 30 people it says were engaged in “complex espionage and sabotage network” run by the United States, state media reported. Another 42 CIA operatives officers were supposedly identified.

20 terabecquerels of radioactive materials flowed out to Pacific Tokyo Electric Power Co. said Saturday that 250 tons of water tainted with about 20 terabecquerels of radioactive substances leaked into the Pacific Ocean from a pit near the seawater intake for the No. 3 reactor at the troubled Fukushima No. 1 plant earlier this month.

White House on War Powers Deadline: ‘Limited’ US Role in Libya Means No Need to Get Congressional Authorization In an effort to satisfy those arguing he needs to seek congressional authorization to continue US military activity in accordance with the War Powers Resolution, President Obama wrote a letter to congressional leaders this afternoon suggesting that the role is now so “limited” he does not need to seek congressional approval.

War Powers: No Congressional Authorization Needed for ‘Limited’ Libyan Role Jake Tapper | President Obama wrote a letter to congressional leaders this afternoon suggesting exemption from 60 days war powers deadline.

The Siege of Syria: US-funded unrest used to justify regime change Tony Cartalucci | After admittedly organizing the very mobs littering Syria’s streets, the U.S. is pressuring the Syrian government to step down.

Texas Gov Knowingly Covered-up Radioactive Drinking Water KHOU News | Documents show “a conspiracy at the TCEQ of the highest order… a massive cover-up.”

Attack on Iran Imminent With Accusation of 9/11 Role? Before It’s News | They never even proved Bin Laden had anything to do with 9/11, never mind Iraq; now want to take on Iran.

Attorney demonizes vet shot 60 times by AZ SWAT team: guns found Arizona Daily Star | The attorney for Pima County SWAT linked Jose Guerena to a ‘home-invasion crew,’ citing guns and body armor found (but no drugs).

White House on War Powers Deadline: ‘Limited’ US Role in Libya Means No Need to Get Congressional Authorization In an effort to satisfy those arguing he needs to seek congressional authorization to continue US military activity in accordance with the War Powers Resolution, President Obama wrote a letter to congressional leaders this afternoon suggesting that the role is now so “limited” he does not need to seek congressional approval.

Attack on Iran Imminent With Accusation of 9/11 Role? Two defectors from Iran’s intelligence service have testified that Iranian officials knew in advance about the attacks of September 11, 2001, says a US court filing that seeks damages for Iran’s ”direct support for, and sponsorship of, the most deadly act of terrorism in American history”.

Spanish protesters cheer for ‘world revolution’ as ban on demonstration takes effect MADRID — Thousands of protesters in Madrid furious over soaring unemployment staged a silent protest and then erupted in cheers of joy as a 48-hour ban on their demonstration took effect on Saturday.

Climate cleansing: Google to censor skeptics? Will Google start censoring climate skeptics? Can anyone say Googlegate?

Australian Federal Police could become carbon cops THE Australian Federal Police could be required to investigate new climate change offences under Julia Gillard’s carbon tax, sparking concerns over the agency’s resourcing.

Fukushima Ocean Contamination: Worse Than Chernobyl Scientists have discovered that the radioactive impact on surrounding oceans from the Fukushima nuclear disaster has already outstripped the 1986 Chernobyl disaster, meaning that the figure of nearly a million cancer deaths as a result of Chernobyl is set to be replicated over the coming decades.

America’s “Arab Deception” As Adolf Hitler noted, “all propaganda has to be popular and has to accommodate itself to the comprehension of the least intelligent of those whom it seeks to reach.” Certainly the writers handing US President Barack Obama his “Middle East speech” had a particularly ignorant audience in mind.

New Details On Al Qaeda Pentagon Lunch: Defense Dept. Was “Impressed” With Terrorist’s Presentation New details have emerged in the case of the Al Qaeda front man who was invited to a Pentagon lunch just months after the 9/11 attacks.

Government Orders You Tube To Censor Protest Videos In a frightening example of how the state is tightening its grip around the free Internet, it has emerged that You Tube is complying with thousands of requests from governments to censor and remove videos that show protests and other examples of citizens simply asserting their rights, while also deleting search terms by government mandate.

The Establishment Eliminates A Threat The police and the prostitute media have made it impossible for Dominique Strauss-Kahn to get a fair trial.

Disney Star Wars Ride Gets Its Own TSA Checkpoint A Star Wars ride at Disneyworld in Orlando has been equipped with a TSA style checkpoint complete with naked body scanners and authoritarian security agents.

TSA Backs Down from Prom Night Grope Last week it was announced that TSA goons would conduct a grope-down of students during prom night at a Santa Fe high school. The TSA promised to move from airports into the New Mexico high school after two girls said security personnel groped them and a federal judge ruled the TSA should conduct pat-downs at dances or graduations.

Corsi: Trump Conspired With Obama To Neutralize Birther Controversy As he prepares to release shocking new evidence and name the people who he claims were behind the forgery of Barack Obama’s long form birth certificate, author Jerome Corsi sensationally accused short-lived Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump of “working with Obama” to neutralize the birther controversy.

New Documentary Exclusively For Prison Planet.tv Subscribers: College Conspiracy College Conspiracy is the most comprehensive documentary ever produced about higher education in the U.S. The film exposes the facts and truth about America’s college education system. College Conspiracy is just one of numerous videos that Prison Planet.tv members will receive access to this week as we announce a bumper rollout of exclusive new multimedia titles. ‘… The real unemployment rate in America is now 22% and 60% of college graduates who are lucky enough to find a job, are receiving low skilled jobs where a college degree isn’t even required. In fact, 70% of high school graduates who didn’t go to college, were able to get these very same jobs as the average college graduate. The main difference is, by the time Americans who went to college get their degree, those who went straight into the work force after high school will already have 4 to 6 years of valuable workplace experience. Instead of having $24,000 in debt, these experienced Americans will be working their way up to a higher paid position or a better job at a different company. All across America, colleges are deceiving prospective students with misleading and often fraudulent tactics and statistics. The fact is, law schools are handing out 43,000 law degrees each year, when there are 15,000 less attorney and legal staff jobs in the U.S. than three years ago. Many law schools are advertising a 90% job placement rate within one year of graduating. However, weeks before job placement surveys are conducted, some law schools will hire unemployed graduates to work in their admissions department. They are let go as soon as these surveys are completed, but count as being part of the 90% employed …’

Washington State National Guard Secret Deployment Where the National Guard soldiers might go . . . is a bit of a mystery.

Kan denies ordering TEPCO to stop seawater injection at reactor Prime Minister Naoto Kan on Monday denied having instructed Tokyo Electric Power Co to stop injecting seawater into the troubled No. 1 reactor at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, brushing aside criticism that an alleged suspension order from him may have worsened the situation.

Mumbai terror attack: US trial puts Pakistan spy agency in the dock Allegations that Pakistan’s intelligence service was involved in the Mumbai terror attacks will be scrutinised in an American court case starting on Monday when the man who helped plan the 2008 strikes testifies against his alleged accomplice.

Jerome Corsi: Criminal Fraud Committed By White House To Keep Obama In Office; Challenges Mainstream Media & Bill O’Reilly WND’s Dr. Jerome Corsi challenges the mainstream media and Fox News’ Bill O’Reilly. The White House committed criminal fraud to keep Obama AKA Soetoro AKA Soebarkah in office. The interview was on WABC Radio and aired on 5/22/11.

Rand Paul pushes Libya resolution, decries ‘do-nothing’ Senate In a contentious interview with CNN’s Anderson Cooper, freshman Senator Rand Paul (R-Kentucky) expressed frustrationat the slow pace of the U.S. Senate, saying that given how little the deliberative body actually accomplishes, he feels sometimes, “like I should return my check”.

Gun battle rages on at Pakistan naval base A gun battle between security forces and Taliban militants raged on Monday morning inside a naval base in Pakistan — more than 10 hours after attackers with guns and grenades stormed the compound in the coastal city of Karachi.

Donald Rumsfeld confronted on Aspartame and Iraq War WAC Chicago | Rumsfeld hold responsibility for the destruction of Iraq and the poisoning of the American food supply.

US drone strike kills 7 in Pakistan A Non-UN-sanctioned US drone attack has killed at least seven people and wounded several others in Pakistan’s northwestern tribal region, officials say.

Drudgereport: USA HITS DEBT CEILING...
TREASURY RAIDS PENSIONS...
PUTIN DECIDES TO RETAKE PRESIDENCY
60 DAYS: GOP senators press Obama on war powers...
Pile of American debt -- would stretch beyond stratosphere!
Gold, silver coins to be legal currency in Utah...
TORNADO SWARMS DEADLIEST IN MORE THAN HALF CENTURY
HEARTLAND DEVASTATION...

116 dead, nearly 500 twister deaths this year...
VIDEO... PHOTOS...
AUDIO TERROR: 'I LOVE YOU ALL'...
'I'm alive!' text message saves man's life...
1,500 rescuers work through pouring rain...
Threats of more to come...
Looting in Minneapolis...
State Treasurer Warns Bond Houses Against Further Loans to Illinois...
NYT: 'Is Anti-White Bias a Problem?'
In what some have called the new post-racial era, what constitutes discrimination is shifting. The landmark Supreme Court case, Ricci v. DeStefano, for example, ruled that white firefighters suffered discrimination when their employer threw out a promotional exam because none of the African-American firefighters who took the test qualified for promotion …’
SUPREME COURT ORDERS CA TO RELEASE UP TO 46,000 PRISONERS...
'Terrible things are sure to happen'...

JERRY BROWN: 'Let's raise taxes!!!'

Economic Data Dismal This Week as Corporate Earnings (on currency manipulation, dollar debasement) Carry Markets WallStCheatSheet / Nyardi Like Putting Lipstick on a Pig ‘As the old saying goes, “You can put lipstick on a pig but it’s still a pig,” and this week’s economic and financial data for the U.S. economy have been truly swine-like. Here are the “boarish” details regarding global stock markets and ETFs:

· Japan (NYSE:EWJ) has reentered recession, its economy plunging for the First Quarter at a -3.7% annualized rate, twice as deeply as expected.

· May Empire Manufacturing Index: 11.9 versus 21.7 previously

· April Housing Starts: 523,000 versus 585,000 previously

· April Building Permits: 551,000 versus 574,000 previously

· April Industrial Production: 0.0% versus 0.7% previously

· April Existing Home Sales: 5.05 million versus 5.09 previously, a -13% year over year decline

· May Philadelphia Fed: 3.9 versus 18.5 previously, down from 43 just two months ago which was the highest reading since 1984.

· April Leading Indicators: -0.3 versus -0.7, the first decline since last June

The only glimmer of positive data was in Initial Unemployment Claims which declined to 409,000 versus 438,000 last week, but still above the psychologically and statistically significant 400,000 level.

Bad…bad….bad…..it has definitely been a “Miss Piggy” kind of week as, overall, the economic numbers have been a debacle, particularly the Philly Fed which came in at 3.9 compared to a consensus 20.5 and last month’s 18.5.

Small wonder they call economics the “dismal science.”

At Wall Street Sector Selector, we continue to expect lower prices ahead in global stock markets and maintain our inverse ETF and put option positions…’


Jobless rate up in D.C., dips in Md., Va. The rate fell in more than three-quarters of the nation’s states. (Washington Post) [ Jobless rate? With or without the ‘stopped looking’ fudge factor. I don’t buy any of it!

7 Reasons a Major Stock Market Correction Is Imminent Furman ‘The recent 2.5% pullback in the S&P 500 (SPY) may just be a blip during a year bullish analysts predict the index will finish above 1500. Brief and minor sell-offs have indeed been the market's only hurdles since QE1 began in March 2009 -- the lone exception being early summer 2010, between QE1 and QE2. On the other hand, here are seven reasons U.S. indicies could lose 20% or more in the next two months.

· CONCLUSION OF QE2. Marc Faber, Austrian economist and leading market forecaster, aptly likens fiscal policy to narcotics abuse: Always destructive in the end, though it may have social benefits early on. Over time, however, that benefit requires more and more of the "good" stuff. Americans are no longer net savers and depend, along with every corporation that uses credit or relies on consumer spending, on government jobs and welfare more so than ever before. QE1 supported investment until it was finished. A sell off post-QE2 will be preempted by investors large and small, which may explain recent trading sessions closing in the red.

· COMMODITIES LEADING DOWN. Commodities markets are smaller and less subject to speculation than stock markets, which is why experienced investors refer to them as leading markets. Oil, silver, sugar, copper and other staples for both consumers and producers have fallen severely in price of late. The selling may still be escalating.

· UNCLE BUCK IS BACK. Currency markets are also referred to as leaders to stocks. Trading volume is huge, but more driven by governments and billionaires than pension plans and gamblers. The first few weeks of May have witnessed a long-unseen affinity for the U.S. dollar, which has gained 2-5% versus most currencies. This may signal the beginning of a flight to safety.

· LEADING STOCKS LOOKING UGLY. From economic bellwethers such as Bank of America (BAC) and KB Homes (KBH) to highly profitable market-changers like Apple (AAPL) and OpenTable (OPEN), downward moves have been drastic. Companies like these are growth-drivers of the economy.

· DEFENSIVE STOCKS OUTPERFORMING. The best performers lately include utility companies American Water Works (AWK) and Consolidated Edison (ED), consumer staples companies Procter & Gamble (PG) and General Electric (GE), and pharmaceutical conglomerate Pfizer (PFE). Outperformance by stocks that operate low-risk, low-growth businesses indicates defensiveness by investors or an apparent lack of value elsewhere in the market.

· GLOBAL GROWTH STIFLED. In 2009 and 2010, bullish arguments were largely focused on a "good enough" United States and an emerging market boom. With Middle Eastern sociopolitical turmoil taking center stage in that region, Japan in shambles, Europe using Scotch tape to fix budgets, and inflation crippling economies worldwide, from where is growth to come?

· NO BOTTOM IN SIGHT FOR U.S. HOUSING. It is one of the largest asset markets, and one that affects everyone, in the world's largest economy. Still, even buyer incentives and suppressed interest rates haven't stopped prices from sliding. A growing population and falling housing prices are basic and clear signs of economic recession.

Investors looking to hedge portfolios or even flip net-short have endless choices thanks to inverse and leveraged ETFs, as well as the opportunity to short individual stocks directly or via options. Betting on increased volatility via VXX will also yield profits if markets sell off. Leveraged ETFs inherently lose value over time and are best for day-traders looking for highly-liquid, diversified ways to capture quick moves.

Directly selling a stock or ETF short allows for less potential upside than a leveraged play, but in doing so you avoid paying a time premium. My preferred method is to short indexes via put options. During significant sell offs, stocks generally fall in unison, while diversified ETFs garner lower options premiums than more volatile individual stocks. Technology (QQQ), homebuilders (XHB), retail (XRT) and financial (XLF) sector ETFs as well as broader ones (SPY) offer appealing prices on the massive leverage that comes with options.’

Top 3 Reasons Markets were Down Ahead of the Rapture Craze May 20, 2011 ‘Markets closed down on Wall Street: DJI 0.74% SP500 0.77% Nasdaq 0.71% Gold 1.29% Oil 1.19% .

Markets started down, attempted to recover at lunch, and got slapped back down in the late afternoon. On the commodities front, Oil (NYSE:USO) found a bid as traders start placing their first bets around the new tension between the US and Israel. Gold (NYSE:GLD) retook $1,500 and closed at $1,511.50, while Silver (NYSE:SLV) didn’t have the same luck.

Today’s markets were down because:

· Retailer earnings are flowing in and input costs are crushing margins. Last night Gap (NYSE:GPS) reported earnings and the stock got folded 17%. Although there are store-specific problems, higher cotton costs are going to keep retailers (NYSE:XRT) from enjoying the summer and possibly beyond. This theme was reiterated by Aeropostale (NYSE:ARO) and The Wet Seal (NASDAQ:WTSLA).

· Two milestones were overtaken in the background . If you are still bitter Bill Gates stole IP from IBM to create Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), revenge is yours. Today IBM’s (NYSE:IBM) market cap finally eclipsed Microsoft. IBM is now worth over $208 billion while Microsoft remains in the lowly high $207 billion range. On another note, streaming video company Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) now has more subscribers than Comcast (CMSCA) — making Netflix the king with more subscribers than any U.S. cable or satellite provider.

· Let’s face it: LinkedIn! LinkedIn (NYSE:LNKD) may be trading at twice the price it was less than 48 hours ago, but it still got off to a positive start this morning. Unfortunately for shareholders, the irrational exuberance on Day 2 wasn’t the same and the stock was in a downtrend until it closed down 1.23% at 93.09. This could just be some healthy profit taking, or it could be the beginning of a pattern established by other Web 2.0 darlings Demand Media (NYSE:DMD) and RenRen (NYSE:RENN). Don’t Miss: “LinkedIn Now has a Price-Earnings Ratio Making Pets.com Blush” …’

Retail Woes Push Markets Lower

Ready for Apple, Microsoft and S&P to Drop_ The LFB ‘S&P 500 futures (ESM1) (1339) are at a pivotal price point at 1340, with the path of least resistance seeming to be a technical and fundamental drop to support. Recent participation levels have been very weak, with some trading sessions close to 50% off daily averages on the main indices.

Adding to the bearish potential over the next two months of trade will be the lack of upside momentum generated from earnings-related news headlines. Recently published data from Q1 hedge funds that show a change in outlook toward Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT) may also weigh on sentiment.

A trading signal will be generated to sell S&P 500 with a session close below 1333, which will target 1328, 1323 and in the mid-term 1315. The SPY (134.35) exchange traded fund that tracks S&P 500 futures momentum historically lags behind the main index, and a sell signal will start to not form until 133.50 is broken.

Investors who do not want to wait for their regional cash market to open, or do not have 24-hour access to the market they have open positions in, are able to access the 24-hour currency market. There is potential to analyze and trade currencies in a high-volume market that is supported by the global inter-bank system, which tracks the 24-hour S&P 500 futures market moves.

Investors can trade currencies in-line with a rising global market, or trade ahead of a falling cash market open. Being able to use currencies offers the opportunity to be in a trade before the regional market opens.

If S&P 500 valuations drop ahead of the next Wall Street session, investors will receive an alternate signal on a currency pair that mirrors the move, so that the trade potential can be accessed at any time. AUD/USD and EUR/USD are strongly aligned with S&P 500 direction, GBP/USD is also well aligned on days that do not have U.K. economic releases, as highlighted previously.

Adding to the potential negativity on equity indices is the outlook on high profile stocks, and the changes in Q1 hedge fund holdings. It would seem that Apple has lost the title of most widely held hedge fund holding, after 22 funds (over 10% of the total 195 that held Apple previously) closed their entire holdings of Apple, which will certainly impact the intra-day dynamics of the market going forward.

At the end of Q1, the most widely held hedge fund stock, according to David Kostin’s Hedge Fund Trend Monitor, was Microsoft, which increased the number of funds holding it from 161 to 181. Those hedge funds have racked up over 10% of losses on this holding alone. The pressure coming to bear from a negative turn in S&P sentiment, as highlighted above, may also impact MSFT as selling pressure will increase in an overall negative equity arena.

A daily chart sell signal on Microsoft formed Feb 22 11, with a drop below 26.90 targeting 25.00. Another sell signal on May 12 11, to sell from 25.20 targeting 24.20 also followed through. A four-hour chart sell signals formed Feb 01 11 from 27.50, which traveled as low as 24.70.

The one-hour charts have been a technical mess, but the 30-minute chart outlook reveals a descending trading pattern that is about to signal a sell signal with a break below 24.40 that targets 24.00 and 23.70.’




Minyanville's T3 Weekly Recap: Stocks Sell Off Into Options Expiration, Judgement Day* [ Riiiiight! ‘Judgement Day’ – Certainly been so for the ‘Terminator’ or former ‘Governator’ … Wow! Or should we say, Bow Wow! I mean, what a dog … You just can’t take former male model schwarzenegger any place … what a failed, gutless wonder and fraud (that commutation) he turned out to be! … Speaking of judgement days, raptures, previously I wrote: ‘End of Days’ message rolls into D.C. (Washington Post) The potentially rotten news that the world will end on May 21 arrived plastered on a caravan of RVs. [ Gee … little premature … you know, that 2012, end of Mayan calendar, Nostradamus thing … I previously weighed in / wrote: Why do Americans still dislike atheists? (Washington Post) [ And not just americans … Why? First and foremost because there is a God. Second, it is intellectually dishonest to be an atheist. Specifically, there is absolutely no evidence to dispute the existence of God. While one might similarly argue that there is no evidence to suggest there is a God (which I would dispute), which for most is a fair statement, the same would yield at best, if intellectually honest, the position of ‘agnostic’. I can totally understand and even empathize with the view of the agnostic. After all, at this point, there seems to be ‘no rhyme nor reason’ at all. But, think binary, positives / negatives. Just too many negatives. Think ‘capital punishment’. No, the world’s not going to end in 2012 as some fear. Rather, think slow burn; decades at best; then ‘poof’. In the scheme of things, this world’s just not that important (apes, notochordates, and initially single celled organisms). Kind of akin to what I previously wrote: (God doesn’t care that you wrestle a girl who wants to wrestle!) Boy wrestler forfeits match to female opponent... [ What a homo! Wow! I feel sorry for those guys she actually beat (20 of them – her record was 20 and 13) … they’ll probably never get over it … nor should they … I have to rethink my regard for Iowa, Iowa state wrestling now presuming such stalwart championship teams to be the products of out-of-state imports … as for the guy who forfeited, he could have easily and gently taken her down (you can easily do that with a lesser opponent), got her in a double grapevine and grind her in a certain way into the mat, and when she was in the throws of convulsive orgasm, she’d unwittingly arch her back, thereby pressing her own shoulder blades to the mat, thereby pinning herself, thus enabling the homo to say in a manner of speaking that he was making heterosexual love not war with her ……… how pathetic and preposterous this was … and, let me remind the homo that God doesn’t care that you wrestle a girl who wants to wrestle! ]

This is an especially great opportunity to sell / take profits while you still can since there's much worse to come! Remember: ‘Sell in May and go away! ‘ … El-Erian: “Financial Repression” In the Form of a Negative Real Rate of Return for Savers Is Coming to America Pimco co-chair El-Erian is saying that the major flaws in the financial system will not be addressed, the government will keep on printing money, and that the inflation-adjusted return on investments for most Americans will be negative. Stock Market: 4 Current Warning Signs Navin ‘…

1) The 5-year high in the level of insider corporate stock sales is telling. At 565 sells for every 1 buy, it’s never been higher. Yes, it’s normal for insiders to be selling some of their stocks so they can buy new yachts and some of this is pre-planned. But that ratio — which has spiked recently — is extraordinarily high, one might even say off-the-chart.

2) Professor Shiller at Yale figures that the present price-to-earnings ratio for the Standard & Poor’s 500 is in the area of 26. The historical average is about 16.

3) The failure of the financial sector to keep up is a significant negative divergence for the entire market.

4) Key market leaders are rolling over in price... ‘

Market's Risk/Reward Ratio Remains Poor McCurdy ‘The S&P 500 index has been in a secular bear market since 2000 and our Secular Trend Score (STS) indicates that we remain in the middle stage of its development (click to enlarge images):

http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2011/5/14/668911-130540693393499-Erik-McCurdy_origin.png

This is an especially great opportunity to sell / take profits while you still can since there's much worse to come! Remember: ‘Sell in May and go away! …

America Is a Failed State Because It Won’t Prosecute Financial Crime Washington’s Blog | It’s now mainstream news that none of the big financial criminals have been prosecuted. This is the grim economic reality [ http://albertpeia.com/grimreality.htm ]. Selling In May Is Very Good Advice This Year Harding / April Is a Good Time to Sell Adler Equity Valuations Are Forming the Second Biggest Bubble in U.S. History Kaspar ... According to Yale University’s Dr. Robert Shiller, the market is now 41% overvalued …only time the markets have been more overvalued .. 1929 & tech bubble. http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2011/4/12/saupload_cape_thumb1.png PRECHTER: We're Still In A Massive Bear Market And Stocks Will Crash To New Lows Equity Valuations Are Forming the Second Biggest Bubble in U.S. History Kaspar 'Despite the terrible economic performance of the past ten years, equity valuations are the 2nd largest bubble in U.S. history... According to Yale University’s Dr. Robert Shiller, the market is now 41% overvalued according to this valuation metric. The only time the markets have been more overvalued was a few brief months in 1929 and the tech bubble

... growth in earnings have been artificially manufactured...

· The change in accounting rules for the financial sector by FASB has generated massive “false” account profits beginning in 2009…’

Treasury to tap pensions to fund government (WP) 24 Signs Of Economic Decline In America ‘The US is in the middle of a devastating long-term economic decline’ ] States face shortfall for retirees (WP) (The frauds on wall street et als should be criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed. Dave's Daily 'If you can keep interest rates this low this long, its inevitable cheap financing can allow companies to start cobbling each other up. Further Ben's policies allow companies like IBM to sell bonds at 1% and buy back shares with the proceeds (total paper bubble-scam). POMO is occurring almost daily and Primary Dealers can buy back their shares and pay dividends with what essentially is taxpayer money-- … an especially great opportunity to sell / take profits while you still can since there's much worse to come!