Al Peia's Blog: February 10, 2011 posts

Business / Economic / Financial

[ This link to a somewhat more cumulative blog posts page will precede current days news since most all topics remain current in terms of impact and longer-term effect and can be searched by topical index term more easily. The same is provided since the blog site http://alpeiablog.blogspot.com has just been censored as to size by google which is typical for google as nsa / cia / gov’t shill as more are becoming aware of. The same is true for microsoft, another co. that’s seen their best days and relies on the government to maintain their monopoly. Up to now the better page http://www.scribd.com/alpeia is provided for ease of formatting and clarity thereby while the Washington Post page is the real deal but without formatting http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/community/mypost/index.html?plckPersonaPage=PersonaComments&plckUserId=alpeia&newspaperUserId=alpeia . The following is the cumulative archive of blog posts / topics for 2010 as the new year starts anew: http://albertpeia.com/December312010postsarchive.htm or PDF formatted version
http://albertpeia.com/December312010postsarchive.pdf ]

Kevin Warsh to leave Federal Reserve Board (Washington Post) [ How ‘bout gettin’ them all to leave … now that would sound like a … sound plan! Is Ben Bernanke A Liar, A Lunatic Or Is He Just Completely And Totally Incompetent? Infowars.com Did you see Ben Bernanke’s testimony before the House Budget Committee on Wednesday? It was quite a show. Bernanke seems to believe that if he just keeps on repeating the same mantras over and over that somehow they will become true. ] The departure leaves the governing board almost entirely in the hands of Obama appointees.

Mubarak's defiance puts U.S. on the defensive (Washington Post) [ Kissinger on Egypt unrest (2-01-11) – “This is only the first scene of the first act of a drama that is to be played out” - And what scene of what act are we in now sweet hank, pray tell. Indeed, after kissinger’s ingratiating comments of the wobama administration’s ‘proper’ handling of the crisis thus far (drummin’ up potential new ‘business’ for doin’ who knows what if anything at all) … his ‘consulting business’ must be … off … considerably! ]

House Republicans divided on spending cuts (Washington Post) [ Holy smokes! … $100 billion … Davis ‘… This is how we pay off our current debts and I think bondholders are simply happy to get anything out of a country that admits it owes $15Tn (1/4 of global GDP) but probably owes closer to $60Tn (entire global GDP) in the form of unfunded liabilities. The funniest thing about this (and you have to laugh) is to see Conservative pundits get on TV and talk about how we need to cut $100Bn worth of discretionary spending to "fix" this (while continuing to spend $1Tn on the military and $1Tn on tax cuts for the top 1% each year). There is no fixing this and even a Republican said you can’t fool all of the people all of the time. THIS HOUSE OF CARDS IS TEETERING FOLKS – PLEASE BE CAREFUL OUT THERE! ‘`]` ] ] An already wobbly week for House Republicans turns chaotic as their unruly new majority flatly rejects a spending plan crafted by House leaders, saying its cuts fell far short of fulfilling a campaign pledge to slice $100 billion from federal programs.

Mubarak's iron rule Robinson: Crumbling but not gently (Washington Post) [ True enough … that crumbling but not gently thing … sounds very ‘americana’ … Spreading unrest raises pressure on Mubarak (Washington Post) An array of new developments turned against President Hosni Mubarak on Wednesday as Egypt moved closer to a full rupture between its autocratic government and a growing popular rebellion. [ Do not talk about ruptures in the presence of Pharhosni Mubarak he chides the Washington Post! After all, at 82 years old and 30 years in power, hernias are known to quite easily happen… Previous: Free elections still distant prospect for Egypt Activists express doubts about feasibility of September ballot (Washington Post) ["I'm shocked by what the Americans say - that Mubarak must stay as president so we can prepare for new elections,'' said Negad El Borai, a human rights advocate and lawyer in Cairo. "Mubarak must leave, and then we can talk." … Truth be told, I’m not shocked. Indeed, though this is only marginally what america / israel wanted, this will stick to america / israel like glue; that proverbial albatross; that lose, lose scenario for america in the region. Previous: Egypt protests continue as Mubarak's government offers concessions (Washington Post) [ Come on! Let not all of us join america’s / israel’s, et als, and mubarak’s delusions. After all, here’s an 82 year old tyrant, in power for 30 years, yet in some parallel universe appears to think he’s calling the shots. Other than literal and quite foolish shots against protesters, even journalists, see infra, there are few indeed that would trust his mindset, such as it is, much less his judgment, so flawed as he has now shown it to be. What is obvious is that this long overdue ‘people’s election’ cannot be thwarted by platitudes and small talk, but resisting the inevitable will turn an american quasi-ally into an anti-american breeding ground because there’s just no reconciling a pro-mubarak, however slight, position with american / israeli, et als war crimes in the region. Restless Cairo protesters hoping for U.S. support (Washington Post) [ The sad reality here is, much like wobama’s Afghanistan fiasco, that america has ‘bought it’. This is truly yet another ‘loss, loss’ scenario as is true of america’s mideast policy generally. Defacto bankrupt america’s initiatives in the region particularly, though generally true of all american policy, is the ‘square pegs in round holes’ approach to almost everything they do, which certainly is not lost on the rest of the world. Coddling and caving in to israeli / neocon / zionist paranoia despite the war mongering intransigence of the former is devastating to a nation as pervasively corrupt america which is facing insurmountable domestic problems of its own, economically, financially, politically, and geo-politically. This should bring to mind the missteps of a former fading empire in this same region desperately trying to remain relevant. Indeed, from Balfour’s Despoliation to arbitrary boundaries, etc., Orwellian britain’s demise (decline) as a real player globally was, as america’s currently, significantly and irrevocably hastened. Quite simply, pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt america will increasingly be viewed as a bunch of ‘muck-ups’ who can’t handle their own substantial problems much less those of other nations; and in fact, invariably exacerbate existing conditions / problems, particularly when pandering to israel’s self-interested concerns. ] While the ouster of President Hosni Mubarak remains the most pressing concern for protesters, the role of U.S. is far from absent in the dialogue. { Previous: Amid Arab protests, U.S. influence has waned (Washington Post) [ And that’s just the way israel likes it … and to america’s detriment, of course … which is not lost on even George Soros … Drudgereport: `Soros: 'The main stumbling block is Israel'...` ….. Egyptian protesters plan new push Government detains foreigners, says it's willing to open talks (Washington Post) [ Open talks? ‘bout what? Building a pyramid in mubarak’s honor before stepping down? He’s done … finito … burnt as an over-micro-waved burrito! The following from the Post is indeed the straw that broke the riders with whips he sent on camels’ and horses’ backs! ‘Wants to die in Egypt? How touching, or the reality, he’s just plain touched as in totally ‘out of it’. ‘…In what the U.S. State Department called a "concerted campaign to intimidate," several dozen journalists were rounded up by security forces and detained for hours, along with foreigners working as teachers, engineers and human rights researchers. Across the city, angry bands of supporters of President Hosni Mubarak also beat journalists; several reporters said that they were threatened with death…’ ] Cairo seeks to shift blame for clashes by rounding up journalists; U.S. worries renewed protests could spark more violence from Mubarak supporters. Demonstrations in Egypt take bloody turn In Cairo square, Mubarak backers confront anti-government crowds (Washington Post) [ Not too difficult for desperate and done mubarak to contrive: Mubarak Says Egyptians Have to Choose Between “Chaos” and Him … Then Sends In His Thugs to Stir Up Chaos (Infowars.com) In order to justify staying in power until elections are held in September, President Mubarak said on tv that the people had to choose between him and “chaos”. ] The coordinated nature of day's events suggested that Mubarak's supporters were determined to show, as he had warned, that the country faced a "choice between chaos and stability." [ Previous: Mubarak's pledge seen as not enough Egyptian president plans to stay in office to transfer power (Washington Post) [ Let me put it another way: Mubarak is as done as an over-cooked tamale … He seems to be stalling for time and even in his age impaired mind certainly knows his position is untenable, unsustainable, and even more irrational as each second passes. There is a possibility that he’s using same to move money / treasure for himself and others, literally as well, buying time. See infra … Previous: Mubarak seeks dialogue, shows no sign of relenting Demonstrators call for massive protest but lack leadership (Washington Post) [ He relented when he resorted to media / internet blackout. Indeed, this lack of sign thing is a testament to how far from reality 30 years has taken him, not to mention the other 52 years that have taken their toll on his cognitive processes. Whether it is plaques ‘on the brain’ or outright senility, that he is so disengaged from the events unfolding around him, one may only wonder how he lasted this long. Nor did his choice of cia standin / shill, new VP Suleiman enhance his now untenable position which leaves him as ‘done as a burnt enchilada’. Kissinger on Egypt unrest – “This is only the first scene of the first act of a drama that is to be played out” [ The import of this so-called interview, and it is here that I part company with alex jones, et als (who by the way, censored me for this very thesis, which puts him and his at the top of my hypocrite list), is that the so-called elite have orchestrated these events and ‘are in control’. First, there are no elites in this world; you can’t derive elites from apes, notochordates, and initially single celled organisms. Second, almost by definition and certainly by history, there are no elites in america even if you were to accept the first proposition (though true) as untrue. What you do have, in this world and america particularly (with few exceptions as I’ve discussed elsewhere / comments / my website), are inherent criminals and mentally ill people of varying degrees of unscrupulousness and insanity who do commit crimes, both small and large, to further their interests or fortunes (sociopaths / psychopaths). The ’so-called alpha-dogs’ of the human species at most, but still incompetent vegetables who, if you look at anything they touch (to use a term term of such incompetent vegetables as historically pertains to their role in the mideast – and generally the state of the world) it invariably goes ‘pear shaped’ (english term). What hasn’t zionist kissinger not messed up as appointee or ‘consultant’ – what does he get paid for? No! The fact is, they have absolutely no idea how this unfolds and as with most of their lives, they will predictably choose the most sordid, despicable, and diabolical course at every turn because … that is their inherently criminal, mentally ill / unstable nature to do so. ]

] Fragile steps to end crisis seen as plans take shape for a transition process that would allow Mubarak to remain as a figure head until new elections. ] After decades of repression, democracy advocates say it could take many months -- if not years -- to lay groundwork for open and credible elections. ]

Mubarak cedes some authority but refuses to quit In latest bid to quell protests, president transfers powers to VP (Washington Post) [Wow! ‘Earlier Thursday, CIA Director Leon Panetta told Congress that "there is a strong likelihood that Mubarak may step down this evening."…’ Talk about being out of the loop and stuck with ‘foot-in-mouth’ … not that you’d expect more from the CIA … CIA's dilemma in Egypt (Washington Post) [ Come on! How does anyone take these ‘muck-ups’ seriously … As a purported journalist, Mr. Ignatius should know better. What distracts the agency is self-interest and greed … yes, greed for themselves, theirs, and a raison d’etre that assures their continued funding (oh how they miss the cold war, hot ones will have to do) on top of their private so-called ‘black ops’. They’re wrong or absent without leave (awol) on major events purportedly within their bailiwick; ie., mideast, israel, ‘wmd’s in Iraq’, 9-11, Egypt, etc.; and, as well, are fallacious in their policy direction, directives, etc.. I mean, beyond their nefarious undertakings, they look more and more like Maxwell Smarts (‘Get Smart’) minus ‘99’ every day. Expanded Free Trade: Exporting Jobs [ When you come right down to it, this has been america’s most significant export. Indeed, this irrevocable structural shift, hailed by cia men hw bush and clinton (clinton couldn’t have survived without them) by way of NAFTA as the greatest thing since sliced bread was indeed in no uncertain terms condemned and warned against by Perot, a man of honor who, unlike his opponents, could not be bought, which is the reason, in pervasively corrupt america, he could never have been elected. Interestingly, you may have noticed the good (but not great, other than the spotlight on pervasive bribery including judges, police, politicians, etc., being far too light) the film ‘The Untouchables’ getting a wide re-airing of late, purporting to be a significant part of american folklore / history / culture. However, the reality is that in america, and certainly today, the real story with impact is that of ‘The Touchables’. The reality is that Elliot Ness died a broken man; bankrupt, unable to even win election to the mayoralty of his then current hometown. He was incorruptible; and hence, in the real america, unelectable at the least if not also all but unemployable (he and his are among those few genetic anomalies in america as I’ve previously alluded to. How far america has fallen from even false perception! Pervasively corrupt, meaningfully lawless america can’t even fake it anymore. At CIA, mistakes by officers are often overlooked (Washington Post) [ Duuuh! I want to know of even one thing that’s not overlooked concerning those incompetent mental cases at the cia; from assassinations, to illegal drug dealing, to illegal arms sales, to corruption, to disinformation, etc., to america’s and the world’s (ie., those WMD’s in Iraq, etc.) substantial detriment. See, for example, http://albertpeia.com/CIAAgentAffidavit1.jpg http://albertpeia.com/FBIAgentAffidavit11.jpg , and of course, corrupt legal / judicial processes, etc., Defacto bankrupt, fraudulent america also spends more on offensive (defensive a misnomer / propaganda) military spending than all the nations of the world combined, and by a large margin at that. Do you see a pattern emerging here [ I unfortunately only belatedly did, and the feds, fed employees, cia, all 3 branches of the u.s. government, etc., are included in this evolved american trait of inherent criminality in the most nefarious sense ( http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm ) ]:

CRIME STATISTICS > TOTAL CRIMES (MOST RECENT) BY COUNTRY SHOWING LATEST AVAILABLE DATA (america’s No. 1).

Rank	Countries	Amount
# 1	United States:	11,877,218
# 2	United Kingdom:	6,523,706
# 3	Germany:	6,507,394

… The following youtube video is well worth the look and explains how and why the frauds on wall street have gotten away with their devastating fraud thus far. The frauds on wall street et als should be criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed. ( `UPDATE: MORE CLAIMS OF RACE BIAS AT JUSTICE...` `CIVIL RIGHTS PANEL TO PURSUE FED PROBE IN BLACK PANTHER CASE...` ex-Justice official quit over the handling of a voter intimidation case against the New Black Panther Party accused his former employer of instructing attorneys in the civil rights division to ignore cases that involve black defendants and white victims `US v. AZ...` Cases against Wall Street lag despite Holder’s vows to target financial fraud Obama broke promises ):

‘THE OBAMA DECEPTION’ http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eAaQNACwaLw&feature=PlayList&p=2EFAB57B44063742&playnext_from=PL&index=0&playnext=1. [ The Obama Deception Number 1 on U.S. Google Trends ]

‘The Obama Deception’ Censored ‘The Obama Deception’ has been censored In light of this development, I provide an archived site version which appears to be complete (but will be compared with earlier version and replaced with same if incomplete) http://albertpeia.com/obamadeceptionhighqualityversion.flv

Then there is the well researched, produced, and informative ‘ESOTERIC AGENDA’ which explains how we’ve gotten to this forlorn point: http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-7052400717834950257#

For the Same Reason I’ve Included Here a Web Site Archived FLV Version of Esoteric Agenda http://albertpeia.com/esotericagenda.flv

] ] Ignatius: Its fight against al-Qaeda has distracted the agency.

] Egyptian leader's defiance stuns and angers hundreds of thousands in Cairo who respond with chants of "revolution, revolution."

Cisco Slump, Mubarak Saga Keep Lid On Stocks [ But guess what? The fraudulent wall street rally point … ‘news that Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak would step down’ … never happened! ] ‘Disappointing earnings projections from Cisco and PepsiCo pressured Wall Street Friday morning, but news that Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak would step down buoyed markets by midday and the major indexes essentially flat by the closing bell.The Nasdaq actually ticked positive to gain 1 point to 2,790, despite Wednesday’s troubling report from Cisco that included a decline in gross margins along with its better than expected earnings and revenue. (See “Cisco: Prelude To Profits, Or Layoffs.”)Cisco’s shares slumped 14.2%, but the rest of the tech sector as fairly resilient. Apple was also in the news, after a sudden plunge in the 1 p.m. hour on little news before recovering to finish with a 1% decline. (See “Did Someone Have A Fat Finger On Apple Today?”)Egypt jumped back into the headlines shortly after the open, with speculation that President Hosni Mubarak would resign. In a speech that began just before the U.S. markets closed, Mubarak stopped short of confirming his departure, but did say he would transfer some of his presidential powers to Vice President Omar Suleiman until a September election.It was a tough day for companies who rang the closing bells at NYSE and Nasdaq, since all eyes were on Mubarak’s speech that ran past the end of trading. The S&P 500 added 1 point to 1,322, while the Dow Jones industrial average broke its eight-day winning streak with an 11-point decline to 12,229.Aside from Cisco, a weaker-than-anticipated forecast from PepsiCo also pressured stocks, overshadowing any enthusiasm for the latest snapshot of the job market. New jobless claims fell to their lowest level since July 2008 last week, according to the Labor Department, dropping to 383,000. The four-week moving average was down to 415,500.’

Initial Jobless Claims Drop to 383,000 [ Come on! Who believes anything they say / report! ]

Minimum 5% Correction Begins Cooper ‘Minyanville Editor's Note: The following is a free edition of Jeff Cooper's Daily Market Report…..Is it getting better?Or do you feel the same?One (U2)

“Synchronicity is no more baffling or mysterious than the discontinuities of physics. It is only the ingrained belief in the sovereign power of causality that creates intellectual difficulties and makes it appear unthinkable that causeless events exist or could ever exist. But if they do, then we must regard them as creative acts, as the continuous creation of a pattern that exists from all eternity, repeats itself sporadically, and is not derivable from any known antecedents. Continuous creation is to be thought of not only as a series of successive acts of creation, but also as the eternal presence of the ONE creative act.” -- Carl Jung

[ Wow! … Note to myself: Never bother reading the verbose, circumlocution-prone jung. And, truth be told, while I believe it to be true there’s a substantial correction in the offing, and it’s also true that the business cycles shouldn’t be ignored (though computerization has lessened the impact of ‘inventory recessions’), and that the market is significantly overvalued; the following is a bit much and included as a matter of curiosity (those modern day alchemists thing … ie., helicopter ben spinning more fake money from paper, fraudulent wall street’s worthless assets from paper and spin, etc..) and correct for the wrong or questionable reasons but is somewhat of a ‘hoot’; and so, you may borrow and don Mickey’s sorcerer’s (apprentice) hat and hang on for the ride. Whew! … that Jungian verbosity thing must be catching! Happy halloweeny! ]

The relevance of trading with time and cycle may alone be less accurate than forecast with price; however its relevance increases as forecasted times approach, price patterns and momentum wanes showing signs of reversal.
When taken together, time/price harmonics have accurately predicted significant market turning points.
Numbers don’t mean anything until they turn the market, but numbers, not fundamentals, turn the market. It was not the fundamentals that turned the market in March 2009.
One of W.D. Gann’s major methods for market timing was to use fractions of a circle, specifically into quarters, eighths, and thirds, to count the number of days, weeks, and months between highs and lows.
For example, the circle has 360 degrees, 90 is one-quarter, 45 is one-eighth.
Rounding, one-eighth of 90 is 11, two-eighths is 22, three-eighths is 33, and four-eights is 45.
W.D. Gann was the greatest student and researcher of the market ever but he was very secretive about what he revealed and how he revealed it. He never chose his words without a distinct reason.
For example, one of Gann’s books was called 45 Years in Wall Street. Note that the title was not 45 Years on Wall Street, but in Wall Street.
The book was not about his career on Wall Street but about a cycle on Wall Street.
As well as regular cycles, there are random fluctuations in things too. The random occurrences can camouflage the periodicity of cycles and also generate what appear to be new, smaller cycles… which they may not be. This is one of the problems with market-timing signals.
In addition, many things act as if they are influenced simultaneously by several different rhythmic influences, the composite effect of which is not regular at all.
Cycles may have been present in the figures you have been studying merely by chance. The ups and downs you have noticed, which come at more or less regular intervals, may have just happened to come that way. The regularity, the cycle, is there but in such circumstances it may carry no significance
Cycles can invert, appear and disappear, and elipticalize.
When forecasting stock market cycles, they can be influenced by random events. The predictive value of cycles provide only specific probabilities when the suggested time period is approached.
Fixed time cycles are apparent in stock market tops and bottoms. But, eventually a cycle may cease to continue. For example, the four-year cycle in the US stock market held true from 1954 to 1982, producing accurate forecasts of eight market bottoms. Had an investor recognized the cycle in 1962 he could have amassed a fortune over the next 20 years. But in 1986, the cycle’s prediction of a low failed to provide a bear market and in 1987 its rising phase failed to prevent the largest crash since 1929.
When the market doesn’t do what is expected it is talking, but ultimately the regression to the mean is vicious.
Long-term cycles, such as the Kondratieff Cycle as well as Elliott Waves, suggested that the big-picture bull market was coming to an end in 2000.
The Kondratieff Cycle is a common, often-quoted cycle of financial and economic behavior that lasts about 54 years. This 54-year cycle is close to the Fibonacci 55 number.
One year is a little less than 55 weeks.
Fifty-five was an important count for W.D. Gann. He called a period of 49 to 55 days the Death Zone. February 8 was the 49th trading day from November 30, the day prior to the December 1 kickoff of this last leg up.
A Synodic Period is the length of time two planets meet in Conjunction, which means revolving 360 degrees to each other. The 360-degree period is divided into fractions known as the Sextile (60 degrees), Square (90 degrees), Trine (120 degrees), Opposition (180 degrees), and back to Conjunction again.
Many of the Synodic planetary cycles conform to the Fibonacci Summation series. Their relationship to natural harmonic vibration is not by chance.
For example Venus revolves around the sun in 61% of one year, or 225 days. Two-hundred-twenty-five was an important number for Gann because 180 + 45 = 225. These two planets possess the unique Fibonacci relationship of the 0.618 Golden Mean.
Every other conjunction of Mars/Jupiter is four-and-one-third years, or 233 weeks, another Fibonacci number. This ties to the four-year cycle mentioned above. While the four-year cycle went out of whack in 1986, there was a significant low in the fall of 1990 and late 1994, which began the parabolic move into 2000. There was a shakeout into 1998 and of course there was the 2002 low. There was a two-month shakeout into June/July of 2006 from 1326 S&P to 1219, which marked the low prior to the advance into the all-time high. Then there was the summer low in 2010. It's interesting that these same numbers from the last cycle 1326 and 1219 are so prominent four years later.
The recent S&P high this week was 1325 and the big April top in 2010 was 1219.
The Synodic period for the Saturn/Uranus combination is 45 years. One-eighth of the 360 degree circle and one-half of 90 is 45.
I bring this up because 45 years ago marked the top of the secular bull market in 1966. That bull market began in June 1949.
The powerful two-year advance from March 2009 may have been a result of the 60-year cycle exerting its influence.
One cycle of 45 years back from 1966 gives 1921, which was the big low prior to the run up into 1929.
If the four-year cycle holds up the next trough should be in 2012. Somewhere prior to then we should see an important peak. Will a two-year advance be followed by a two-year decline?
It is interesting that it was eight years from the 1921 low to the vertical peak in 1929 and that it was eight years from 2000 to the vertical drop into 2008. I can’t help but think that a mirror image foldback of sorts may be playing out with the market, making an important peak three years following the 2009 low, just as it made an important low in 1932, three years following the 1929 peak.

Conclusion: 1320 ties to March 6 and squares the 666 price low for a potential square out. The market has respected this level for two days and is gapping below 1320 this morning.
The pattern looks reminiscent of the November top, which was a grind up followed by a climatic spike. [chart]
Monday we saw a spike on the heels of a grinding move up.
The November high was at 1225. We tagged 1325 this week.
The November correction was between 4% and 5% and 152 points. I think another 4% to 5% correction is going to play out quickly into the anniversary of the March 6/9th 2009 low.
Fifty percent of the range from the November 1173 low to this week's 1325 high is 76 points. A decline to 50% of the last swing projects to 1249. There is some good DNA and symmetry there as this was the projection for the big inverse head-and-shoulders pattern from 2010. Moreover, 1248/1249 represents a 180-degree decline on the Square of 9 Chart.
Click here for square of nine chart.
A study of market history shows that corrections against the main trend are much more uniform while impulse legs in favor of the main trend can have a large degree of variability. Said in another way, it is easier to define and anticipate corrections not in favor of and against the primary trend that it is to judge the extent of the primary trend itself. In my experience, this is one of the most important lessons revealed in the study of stock market history.
Looking at the form of the advance from the September 1 kickoff, there are two legs separated by the November correction. Because of the persistence of the advance, which has seen no more than one 2% move in the last five months (compared to 14 moves of 2% or more in the preceding five-month period), the normal expectation would be to see a similar, uniform near-5% correction be bought with both hands by market participants. At the maximum I would expect the correction to extend to a backtest of the April/November 2010 highs of 1219/1227 respectively.
If the correction overbalances the November decline in time and price then the high was more significant.
If a uniform correction plays out it would give rise to a possible third drive up. Whether such a third drive into the anniversary of the April high if it plays out is a marginal new high or a significantly higher high remains to be seen. [chart]
Strategy: It looked like Elvis had left the building following the decline of January 28. However, after a genuine sell signal that players pounce on, there is often times a final squeeze. That may have been the run to 1320.
Fifty percent of the range from the 1275 low on January 28 to this week's 1325 high gives a midpoint of 1300. Any break of 1300, especially on the weekly closing basis (Friday) confirms a correction is underway from where I sit. This 1300 level ties to 1296, which is 6 X 6 X 6 X 6, resonating of the 666 price low. 1296 is in the upper right-hand corner of the Square of 9 Chart and aligns with May 6, the flash crash, so I would not underestimate how quickly a reversion to the mean in the persistency of the advance and a revulsion to sentiment could take place if everyone tried to get out of the door at the same time. [chart]
A Dow Theory non-confirmation has been ongoing for three and a half weeks now, which is long in the tooth while the market has been overbought for months -- a situation where the chickens could come home to roost violently and quickly, despite the fact that the market has proven to be a Shrine of Boys Crying Wolf.
It may be time to yell wolf.
Trading Lessons: [chart] The following chart is mislabeled as FDX when it's actually FCX [chart]’

Midnight Trader ‘4:14 PM, Feb 10, 2011 --

NYSE down 6.86 (-0.1%) to 8,337.13
DJIA down 10 (-0.1%) to 12,229
S&P 500 flat to up 1 (+0.1%) to 1,322
Nasdaq up 1 (+0.1%) to 2,790

GLOBAL SENTIMENT

Hang Seng down 1.97%
Nikkei down 0.11%
FTSE down 0.60%

UPSIDE MOVERS
(+) ALU issues better-than-expected results.
(+) S beats with revenue.
(+) WFMI seeing continuing upside reaction to evening earnings beat.
(+) SQNM up on positive Down Syndrome diagnosis assay study.
(+) MCZ continues sharp evening gain that followed profit, revenue gains.

DOWNSIDE MOVERS
(-) CSCO continues evening slide that followed disappointing guidance, earnings beat.
(-) WMT downgraded.
(-) ATVI continues evening drop that followed guidance miss.
(-) EZCH misses with sales estimates.
(-) AKAM continues evening slide that followed disappointing guidance.
(-) TQNT continues evening slide that followed EPS, guidance miss.
(-) PEP guides lower for full year.
(-) IDIX ending some drug developments.

MARKET DIRECTION

The DJIA ended down 0.1%, the Nasdaq twisted in both positive and negative territory even in the final minutes of trading before ending just in positive territory. The S&P 500 also twisted in two-directional trade late, ending up less than 0.1%. The Dow's eight-session run has ended. It was a choppy session on Wall Street. Stocks began the day lower amid a double-digit drop for Cisco (CSCO), but some stock declines only encouraged buyers. Afternoon gains came as Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak was delivering an address many protesting Egyptians hoped would contain his decision to resign immediately. He did say he will delegate some power to the vice president.

In the latest employment data, new applications for unemployment benefits fell 36,000 to a seasonally adjusted 383,000 in the week ending Feb. 5. That is the lowest level since July of 2008, the Labor Department reported. Economists had expected an initial-claims level of 410,000, according to MarketWatch.

On the real estate front, RealtyTrac reported that the volume of foreclosures in January fell 17% compared with December. Last month, 261,333 homes received a foreclosure filing, MarketWatch reported.

Overseas, the Bank of England left monetary policy untouched as was mostly expected. Some economists thought a surprise rate hike couldn't be entirely ruled out given recent comments and signs of rekindling inflation risks, even as growth remains tepid.

In company news:

Cisco Systems (CSCO) shares tumbled after the provider of networking equipment reported Q2 sales of $10.4 billion, ahead of the analyst consensus of $10.23 billion on Thomson Reuters. EPS was $0.37, two cents better than the Street view. Still, the company's gross margin missed analyst estimates. Gross margin fell to 62.4%, short of analysts estimates compiled by Bloomberg of 63.3%.

Sequenom (SQNM) announced the publication of the results of its "locked assay" study on noninvasive prenatal diagnosis of fetal Trisomy 21 (or Down Syndrome) in the March issue of the American Journal of Obstetrics and Gynecology. According to the company, the study demonstrated that massively parallel shotgun sequencing is a potentially viable path for noninvasive prenatal diagnosis of fetal Trisomy 21 and warrants its validation in a larger clinical validation study.

Nokia (NOK) and Microsoft (MSFT) are said to be close to announcing a software partnership, Bloomberg reports. The move is reportedly a bet that both companies will be able to better challenge Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL).

Medicis Pharmaceutical (MRX) and Anacor Pharmaceuticals (ANAC) announced that the two companies have signed a research and development agreement to discover and develop a potential treatment of acne using boron-based small molecule compounds.

Clearwire (CLWR) is planning on shifting its sales strategy away from retail consumer services toward wholesale clients, Reuters reported late Wednesday. The company will instead look to conserve cash for building its high speed network, according to a source, says Reuters.

Bank of America (BAC) is reportedly planning to close some retail branches this year in an effort to grow revenue from other locations, Bloomberg reports. In remaining locations, the bank will reportedly try to bump up revenues by offering investment advice by video-conference.

Sprint Nextel (S) reports Q4 revenue of $8.3 bln, better than the analyst consensus of $8.15 bln on Thomson Reuters. EPS loss was $0.31.

Credit Suisse (CS) fell after the company reported a Q4 profit of 841 mln Swiss francs, below Street expectations of 914 mln Swiss francs, according to Marketwatch.com.

PepsiCo (PEP) announced its fourth-quarter net income fell 5% due to higher costs. The company consequently lowered its full-year guidance. The company posted net income of $1.37 billion, or $0.85 per share, down from $1.43 billion, or $0.90 per share, last year. Ex items, net income was $1.05 per share; the Street view was $1.04 per share.’

Counties Turning Asphalt Back to Gravel as Rising Materials Costs Hamper Road Maintenance [Well, this sounds like a b*** s***ish story for the frauds on wall sreet; viz., load up on grovel companies, etc.. ] ‘We are going back to the Stone Age. Literally. From NACO (National Association of Counties): Several counties across the country are going back to the Stone Age — turning asphalt roads back to gravel, or considering doing so — as rising costs outstrip their ability to maintain their pavements.Counties in Iowa, Michigan, California and South Dakota are among those that have decided either to stop maintaining a percentage of their asphalt roads or to pulverize some paved roads and downgrade them to gravel.Naturally, California is home to some of the hardest-hit counties. Sonoma County, for example, based on annual projected revenues can only afford to budget $5 million to maintain all the county's roads. But estimates project the cost of maintenance at 11 times that, or $55 million.‘

Housing and Banking Issues Remain Problematic Editor's Note: This article was written by Richard Suttmeier, chief market strategist at ValuEngine.com‘With the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage up to 5.13% from 4.81% last week, mortgage applications continue to slide. The overall Mortgage Application Index declined 5.5% this week led by a 7.7% decline in the Refinance Index with the Purchase Index down 1.4%. A major negative factor has been significantly higher US Treasury yields. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury was at 2.334 in October in anticipation of QE2 9 (quantitative easing), and on Wednesday this yield touched 3.770 up 143.6 basis points. The main purpose of QE2 is to push longer term US Treasury yields lower so this policy has been a failure.

As a result of this failed monetary policy the percentage of homes that are underwater versus that have their mortgages outstanding has risen to 27%, which feeds on projecting even lower home prices as the supply of existing homes for sale continues to rise. This in turn puts more pressure on banks to make costly mortgage modifications, and write down more commercial real estate loans. These are the problems that originally emerged in mid-2005 for the homebuilders, at the end of 2006 for community banks and in March 2007 for regional banks including those considered “too big to fail.” Remember, toxic assets are still around and the larger banks are being asked by the FDIC to increase contributions to the FDIC Deposit Insurance Fund beginning April 1.

According to Zillow, home values posted their largest quarterly decline of 2.6% in the fourth quarter, down 5.9% year over year.

On the labor front, the Labor Department reported that employers posted fewer jobs openings in December, a drop of 140,000 to 3.1 million jobs, the lowest since September. Nearly 14.5 million Americans were out of work in December with 4.7 people competing for each job available. A healthy reading is 2 to 1. Key to the housing market and Main Street, USA, are construction jobs, and job openings fell sharply to 28,000 in December from 91,000 in November.

Wednesday’s closes were above all of this week’s pivots at 12,142 Dow Industrial Average, 1316.2 S&P 500, 2770 Nasdaq, 5077 Dow Transports, and 800.13 Russell 2000. The S&P 500 tested and held its weekly pivot at 1316.2. The Dow Transport Average remains below its 50-day simple moving average at 5098 and my annual pivot at 5179.

The Dow Industrial Average (12,240) -- My monthly value level is 11,759 with this week’s pivot at 12,142, Wednesday’s high at 12,254.23 with daily and annual risky levels at 12,399 and 13,890.
The S&P 500 (1320.9) -- My quarterly value level is 1262.5 with this week’s pivot at 1316.2, and Tuesday’s high at 1324.87 and today’s risky level at 1346.1.
The Nasdaq (2789) -- My monthly value level is 2611 with a weekly pivot at 2770 and daily and quarterly risky levels at 2843 and 2853.
Dow Transports (5096) -- My monthly value level is 4962 with a weekly pivot at 5077, the 50-day simple moving average at 5098, and daily and annual pivots at 5145 and 5179. Transports lag its January 18 high at 5256.80.
The Russell 2000 (809.27) -- My annual and quarterly value levels are 784.16 and 765.50 with a weekly pivot at 800.13 and Tuesday’s high at 813.69 and daily risky level at 828.06.

We are still trading under a ValuEngine Valuation Warning -- 16 of 16 sectors overvalued with only 34.28% of all stocks undervalued on Wednesday, below the 35% threshold by this measure. This also means that 65.72% of all stocks are overvalued. Why does Wall Street think stocks are cheap?

The US Treasury 10-Year Yield -- (3.646) Tested 3.770 on Wednesday versus my annual value level at 3.791. My annual value level is 3.791 with a weekly risky level at 3.525. The 10-Year auction helped stabilize the US Treasury market with an auction level at 3.665, a strong 3.23 bid to cover, and an aggressive 71% indirect bid.

Comex Gold -- ($1363.7) My quarterly, weekly, and annual pivots are $1331.3, $1342.8, and $1356.5 with monthly, quarterly, and semiannual risky levels are $1412.4, $1441.7, and $1452.6. Gold remains below its 50-day simple moving average at $1375.0.

Nymex Crude Oil -- ($86.85) My semiannual pivot at $87.52 remains a magnet between a trading range between the January 28 low at $85.11 and its January 31 high at $92.84. My semiannual pivot is $87.52 has become a magnet with weekly and monthly pivots at $91.62 and $91.83. The 200-day simple moving average is $80.75.

The Euro -- (1.3728) My quarterly value level is 1.3227 with a weekly pivot at 1.3511 and monthly risky level at 1.4225.

Fed’s Warsh Resigns; Bernanke Adviser Questioned Stimulus Bloomberg | The only governor to question the expansion of record monetary stimulus in November.

Ron Paul’s First Subcommittee Hearing: Complete Video Infowars.com | This is the first hearing held by Dr. Ron Paul as Chairman of the Domestic Monetary Policy and Technology subcommittee which oversees the Federal Reserve.

The Super Bowl flyover may have cost $450,000 A Dallas TV reporter estimated that the flyover cost the Navy a total of $450,000.

Is Ben Bernanke A Liar, A Lunatic Or Is He Just Completely And Totally Incompetent? Did you see Ben Bernanke’s testimony before the House Budget Committee on Wednesday? It was quite a show. Bernanke seems to believe that if he just keeps on repeating the same mantras over and over that somehow they will become true.

The Social Security Disaster The average retirement age is measured in spans of five years for accuracy.

Global Stock Exchanges Are Headed for Major Consolidation Germany’s Deutsche Boerse is in advanced talks to buy NYSE Euronext, and the London Stock Exchange has agreed to buy Canadian stock market operator TMX, as exchanges globally look for ways to boost their markets and cut costs.

Donald T_rump Would Impose 25% Tax on China Imports if President [ If he was mobster in chief, mobster and scoundrel trump wraps himself in populist american flag and offers up an (too little too late – typical lightweight) implausible solution to keep ‘the juice’ flowing though he’d already be in jail in a rational, non-declining nation with meaningful laws. All China has to do is dump (and not prospectively buy) their ever more and declining in value day-by-day (from dollar debasement policies) u.s. paper / bonds and overnight the u.s. economy consequently thereby collapses. [ When you come right down to it, this has been america’s most significant export. Indeed, this irrevocable structural shift, hailed by cia men hw bush and clinton (clinton couldn’t have survived with them) by way of NAFTA as the greatest thing since sliced bread was indeed in no uncertain terms condemned and warned against by Perot, a man of honor who, unlike his opponents, could not be bought, which is the reason, in pervasively corrupt america, he could never have been elected. Interestingly, you may have noticed the good (but not great, other than the spotlight on pervasive bribery including judges, police, politicians, etc., being far too light) the film ‘The Untouchables’ getting a wide re-airing of late, purporting to be a significant part of american folklore / history / culture. However, the reality is that in america, and certainly today, the real story with impact is that of ‘The Touchables’. The reality is that Elliot Ness died a broken man; bankrupt, unable to even win election to the mayoralty of his then current hometown. He was incorruptible; and hence, in the real america, unelectable at the least if not also all but unemployable (he and his are among those few genetic anomalies in america as I’ve previously alluded to. How far america has fallen from even false perception! Pervasively corrupt, meaningfully lawless america can’t even fake it anymore. See, for example, http://albertpeia.com/CIAAgentAffidavit1.jpg http://albertpeia.com/FBIAgentAffidavit11.jpg , and of course, corrupt legal / judicial processes, etc., Defacto bankrupt, fraudulent america also spends more on offensive (defensive a misnomer / propaganda) military spending than all the nations of the world combined, and by a large margin at that. Do you see a pattern emerging here [ I unfortunately only belatedly did, and the feds, fed employees, cia, all 3 branches of the u.s. government, etc., are included in this evolved american trait of inherent criminality in the most nefarious sense … The pervasively corrupt american illegal system … corrupt u.s. courts / (lawyers) / judges: Their lifetime plush appointments should be abolished, which corrupt entities are unheard of in productive societies as China, Japan, etc.. Time to abolish these drags on society and eliminate their lifetime stipends and costly bureaucracies. Rules of law mean nothing to these typically corrupt americans. Most, including sam alito of the u.s. supreme court, concerning drug money laundering and obstruction of justice in the 3^rd circuit ( also maryanne trump barry who covered-up drug money laundering through her brother’s casinos in a civil RICO case) should have gone to or belong in jail. Contrary to popular belief, they do it for the money, personal money, big, cash, untraceable money. The fog of war is great for such things (360 tons $100 bills flown into Iraq and missing, etc.).

CRIME STATISTICS > TOTAL CRIMES (MOST RECENT) BY COUNTRY SHOWING LATEST AVAILABLE DATA (america’s No. 1).

Rank	Countries	Amount
# 1	United States:	11,877,218
# 2	United Kingdom:	6,523,706
# 3	Germany:	6,507,394

… The following youtube video is well worth the look and explains how and why the frauds on wall street have gotten away with their devastating fraud thus far. The frauds on wall street et als should be criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed. ( `UPDATE: MORE CLAIMS OF RACE BIAS AT JUSTICE...` `CIVIL RIGHTS PANEL TO PURSUE FED PROBE IN BLACK PANTHER CASE...` ex-Justice official quit over the handling of a voter intimidation case against the New Black Panther Party accused his former employer of instructing attorneys in the civil rights division to ignore cases that involve black defendants and white victims `US v. AZ...` Cases against Wall Street lag despite Holder’s vows to target financial fraud Obama broke promises ):

‘THE OBAMA DECEPTION’ http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eAaQNACwaLw&feature=PlayList&p=2EFAB57B44063742&playnext_from=PL&index=0&playnext=1. [ The Obama Deception Number 1 on U.S. Google Trends ]

Then there is the well researched, produced, and informative ‘ESOTERIC AGENDA’ which explains how we’ve gotten to this forlorn point: http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-7052400717834950257#

For the Same Reason I’ve Included Here a Web Site Archived FLV Version of Esoteric Agenda http://albertpeia.com/esotericagenda.flv

]] “I would announce, without equivocation, a 25% tax increase on anything purchased from China.”

(2-10-11) Dow 12,229 -11 Nasdaq 2,790 +1 S&P 500 1,321 +1 [CLOSE- OIL $87.38 (-54% for year 2008) (RECORD TRADING HIGH $147.27) GAS $3.11 (reg. gas in LAND OF FRUITS AND NUTS $3.35 REG./ $3.53 MID-GRADE/ $3.62 PREM./ $3.68 DIESEL) / GOLD $1,362 (+24% for year 2009) / SILVER $30.09 (+47% for year 2009) PLATINUM $1,826 (+56% for year 2009) / DOLLAR= .73 EURO, 83 YEN, .62 POUND STERLING, ETC. (How low can you go - LOWER)/ http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/update 10 YR NOTE YIELD 3.71% …..… AP Business Highlights ...Yahoo Market Update... T. Rowe Price Weekly Recap – Stocks / Bonds / Currencies - Domestic / International This Is a Secular Bear Market and The End of Buy and Hold … and Hope MARKET MANIPULATION AND HOW THE LATEST BUBBLE-FRAUD PRE-COMING CRASH IS BEING ACCOMPLISHED 3-11-10 6 Theories On Why the Stock Market Has Rallied 3-9-10 [archived website file] Risks Lurk for ETF Investors The bull market that never was/were beyond wall street b.s. when measured in gold Property Values Projected to Fall 12% in 2010 Jan 31, 2010 The Week Ahead: Risk Is Off the Cliff; Unwind Has Begun Jan 31, 2010 01-13-10 Forecast for 2010 from Seeking Alpha Contributor THE COMING MARKET CRASH / CORRECTION 1-28-10 Maierhofer (01-15-10) 11 Clear Signs Economy Sinking Economic Black Hole 1-22-10: 20 Reasons Why The U.S. Economy Is Dying And Is Simply Not Going To Recover Current Economic / Fiscal Charts Trendsresearch.com forecast for 2009 1-7-10 Crash is coming! ‘WORST ECONOMIC COLLAPSE EVER’ Must Read Economic / Financial Data This Depression is just beginning The coming depression… thecomingdepression.net MUST READ: JEREMY GRANTHAM’S QUARTERLY UPDATE 25 January 2010 (850 on the S&P) by TPC The Next Wave of Collapse is Coming Sooner than you think Sliding Back Into the Great Depression ABSOLUTELY, ABSURDLY, RIDICULOUS! SELL / TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME!

National / World

A Day in the Park Infowars | A strong entry for “The Answer to 1984 is 1776″ Video Contest.

Hitler finds out about the DHS Emergency Alert System and the See Something Say Something program Der Führer spazzes out over Obama stealing his centralized broadcasting system.

Obama Energy Secretary Promises “Massive” Coal Plant Closures Paul Joseph Watson | White House agenda to bankrupt coal industry via EPA regulations accelerates despite rolling blackouts

Big Sis Breaks Out “Heightened” Terror Alert as PATRIOT Act Heads to House Steve Watson & Paul Joseph Watson | Republicans and Democrats attempt to out do each other in quest to finish off freedom.

Victory: The Truth Will Out Infowars.com | Over the last few weeks, we have received a large number of excellent video contest entries.

Hosni Mubarak and American Foreign Policy Sartre | Our own citizens should hear the lesson and support any meaningful self-determination impulses.

Obama Energy Secretary Promises “Massive” Coal Plant Closures Obama Energy Secretary Steven Chu has launched the next phase of the White House’s publicly stated agenda to bankrupt the coal industry via EPA regulations after announcing the prospect of “massive” coal plant closures even as Texas and other states suffer rolling blackouts as a result of maxed-out power plants that cannot cope with demand.

Big Sis Breaks Out “Heightened” Terror Alert As PATRIOT ACT Extension Heads Back To House Floor Defeat for the proposed extension of the so called PATRIOT Act in the House Tuesday night made national headlines, yet the extension is set to pass by the end of the week anyway as it is brought back to the floor for another vote. But just in case anyone in Congress reaches the sudden epiphany that they are effectively voting on the Enabling Act, Big Sis Janet Napolitano has officially notified a congressional panel that the US faces the greatest possibility of a major terror attack since 9/11.

White House Lies On Blackouts Exposed We have become used to seeing politicians distort the truth, but when such lies are brazenly plastered all over the front page of the White House website, it really highlights how much contempt the government has for the intelligence of the American people.

Mubarak Refuses To Resign: ‘Will Not Be Dictated To By Orders From Outside’ Mubarak said he was not leaving Egypt, and said he “cannot and will not accept to be dictated orders from outside” and would remain until elections in September.

Liberals Surprised and Outraged by Sale of Huffington Post to AOL Once again, liberals and Democrats demonstrate they are clueless about how establishment politics work in America. Once again, they display their ignorance of the false right-left paradigm that controls the corporate media political realm, including the supposedly sterling liberal reputation of the Huffington Post.

Video: Alex Jones Exposes DHS Terror Fraud After making repeated attempts over several days, Alex Jones demonstrates to his listeners that the DHS reported terrorism threats and citizen spy programs are nothing more than Pavlovian boxes of control.

Faith and Fear: Christians fleeing Iraq victims of US invasion? Violence and intimidation has forced hundreds of thousands of Iraqi Christians to flee their homeland. Experts view them as one of the biggest victims of the 2003 U.S.-led invasion, with the minority group a continued target of extremists.

Drudgereport: Mubarak Hangs Tough...
VP Urges Protestors to Ignore Media, and Go Home...
AL-JAZEERA LIVE FEED...
CIA Panetta Confused: Said Strong likelihood Mubarak would 'step down tonight'...
March to palace being organized...
REUTERS LIVE...
ElBaradei warns Egypt will 'explode'.... Egypt's govt on the brink.. FLASH CRASH: APPLE stock loses $10 billion in four minutes...
Jobs' Health Rumor? Global Stock Exchanges Headed for Major Consolidation... Kyl becomes fifth senator to step aside... Fed Governor Resigns; Bernanke Adviser Questioned Stimulus...
NBC: Intelligence officials 'scrambling to try to determine exactly what this all means'... TRUMP DRAWS CHEERS, BOOS AT CONSERVATIVE CONFERENCE...
PONDERING PRESIDENTIAL RUN... [Don’t make me laugh! … Donald T_rump Would Impose 25% Tax on China Imports if President [[ If he was mobster in chief, mobster and scoundrel trump wraps himself in populist american flag and offers up an (too little too late – typical lightweight) implausible solution to keep ‘the juice’ flowing though he’d already be in jail in a rational, non-declining nation with meaningful laws. All China has to do is dump (and not prospectively buy) their ever more and declining in value day-by-day (from dollar debasement policies) u.s. paper / bonds and overnight the u.s. economy consequently thereby collapses. [ When you come right down to it, this has been america’s most significant export. Indeed, this irrevocable structural shift, hailed by cia men hw bush and clinton (clinton couldn’t have survived with them) by way of NAFTA as the greatest thing since sliced bread was indeed in no uncertain terms condemned and warned against by Perot, a man of honor who, unlike his opponents, could not be bought, which is the reason, in pervasively corrupt america, he could never have been elected. Interestingly, you may have noticed the good (but not great, other than the spotlight on pervasive bribery including judges, police, politicians, etc., being far too light) the film ‘The Untouchables’ getting a wide re-airing of late, purporting to be a significant part of american folklore / history / culture. However, the reality is that in america, and certainly today, the real story with impact is that of ‘The Touchables’. The reality is that Elliot Ness died a broken man; bankrupt, unable to even win election to the mayoralty of his then current hometown. He was incorruptible; and hence, in the real america, unelectable at the least if not also all but unemployable (he and his are among those few genetic anomalies in america as I’ve previously alluded to. How far america has fallen from even false perception! Pervasively corrupt, meaningfully lawless america can’t even fake it anymore. See, for example, http://albertpeia.com/CIAAgentAffidavit1.jpg http://albertpeia.com/FBIAgentAffidavit11.jpg , and of course, corrupt legal / judicial processes, etc., Defacto bankrupt, fraudulent america also spends more on offensive (defensive a misnomer / propaganda) military spending than all the nations of the world combined, and by a large margin at that. Do you see a pattern emerging here [ I unfortunately only belatedly did, and the feds, fed employees, cia, all 3 branches of the u.s. government, etc., are included in this evolved american trait of inherent criminality in the most nefarious sense … The pervasively corrupt american illegal system … corrupt u.s. courts / (lawyers) / judges: Their lifetime plush appointments should be abolished, which corrupt entities are unheard of in productive societies as China, Japan, etc.. Time to abolish these drags on society and eliminate their lifetime stipends and costly bureaucracies. Rules of law mean nothing to these typically corrupt americans. Most, including sam alito of the u.s. supreme court, concerning drug money laundering and obstruction of justice in the 3^rd circuit ( also maryanne trump barry who covered-up drug money laundering through her brother’s casinos in a civil RICO case) should have gone to or belong in jail. Contrary to popular belief, they do it for the money, personal money, big, cash, untraceable money. The fog of war is great for such things (360 tons $100 bills flown into Iraq and missing, etc.).

[ http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm ]. america’s just a fraudulent and failed defacto bankrupt nation. ] “I would announce, without equivocation, a 25% tax increase on anything purchased from China.” ]
CHENEY HECKLED... 'DRAFTDOGER!' 'WHERE'S BIN LADEN?'

Go to following pages for above links:
http://www.albertpeia.com/currentopics2ndqtr10108.htm
http://www.albertpeia.com
http://www.albertpeia.com/alresume.htm

http://www.albertpeia.com/wallstreetlunacy2ndqtr10108.htm

http://www.scribd.com/alpeia

You may post a comment on my blog on any topic: http://alpeiablog.blogspot.com

Sallai Meridor: Israel's fear (Washington Post) [ Come on! Wake up! Illegal nuke totin’, war crimes nation israel’s fears … p l e a s e, spare me the pro-israeli b* s* ! What israel fears is a projection of their own ill-founded motives and actions for which all norms, rules, laws governing civilized behavior are suspended for expedience at the least, and blood-thirst that some posit as a remnant of their historic role as Christ-killers (with roman ‘juice’). Isn’t it time, in these desperate times for america, to put america’s, not israel’s interests, first. Who cares what israel fears … In 1948, U.S. Secretary of Defense James Forrestal, an opponent of the creation of a Jewish state in Palestine, warned that, even though failure to go along with the Zionists might cost President Truman the states of New York, Pennsylvania, and California, it was about time that somebody should pay some consideration to whether we might not lose the United States….. Mr. Forrestal was absolutely correct! Isn’t that exactly what’s happened to defacto bankrupt america in intractable decline. TIME TO REVOKE AND NULLIFY THE BALFOUR DECLARATION AND ABROGATE THE CREATION OF THE NATION STATE OF ISRAEL IN THE INTERESTS OF FAIRNESS, JUSTICE, PEACE AND PROSPECTIVE PROSPERITY FOR THIS WORLD! Israel wary of transition in Egypt, concerned about regional stability (Washington Post) [ Who cares what the paranoid, war criminal, illegal nuke totin’, war criminal israelis are wary of. This country has gone down the tubes cow-towing to the paranoid, self-interested concerns of the psycho / sociopathic zionist israelis who are forever projecting their own pathological motives to every turn of history while ignoring their own culpability in producing the very outcomes they purportedly seek to avoid. War, conflict, greed, bloodshed is the historically based israeli way. ] A resurgent Syria alarms u.s., israel (Washington Post) [ Tell me! What doesn’t alarm these two paranoid, zionist neo-nazi regimes of oppression, suppression, aggression, and regression. If they were individuals, they’d undoubtedly be diagnosed as psychopaths, sociopaths totally ignorant of the rights of others, laws, civilized behavior as israel pads her illegal nuke arsenals with american supplied weaponry / support while expecting all other nations to ‘role over and die’. Bipolar / manic / depressive, the ups and downs are increasingly difficult for even americans to follow. Obssessive / compulsive thy names are zionist israel / america. Projection / displacement regarding their own illegal acts, war crimes, etc.; what they distinguished from what they do … dissociative identity disorder, dissociative fugue? Yes … the u.s. and israel are the world’s lunatics, sorely in need of therapy! ] Syria's fresh interference in Lebanon and its increasingly sophisticated weapons shipments to Hezbollah have alarm officials and prompt Israel's military to consider striking a Syrian weapons depot.

Congress must raise debt ceiling, Bernanke warns (Washington Post) [ Riiiiight, bunglo ben … this from the same ben who forecasted ‘no-recession’. The fact is, ‘helicopter ben shalom bernanke’ hasn’t the slightest idea what he’s doing and is the ‘poster boy’, epitome of that incompetent ivy league vegetable who’s long on rhetoric and cv but quite short on real results. The only thing that has been true as per his stated intentions, is an inflated new wall street bubble to and for the benefit of the wall street frauds. ‘Have printing press, will travel’ … that soldier of his and their fortune is a man called ‘Palawallstreet’ aka ben shalom bernanke … which temporary obfuscation with money that’s not really there in real terms means that beyond the temporary look good/feel good, disaster straight ahead. Bernanke's Worst Nightmare Is This Man's Boxes: Caroline Baum BusinessWeek Feb. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Ben Bernanke arrived at his office a week ago and came face to face with his worst nightmare. Staring out at the Federal Reserve chairman from page C1 of the Feb. 3 edition of the Wall Street Journal was a photo ... The Associated Press Video: Republicans Grill Bernanke Over Inflation, Debt Paul calls Fed's Bernanke "cocky" in House hearing Reuters [ Yeah … Come on! … The incompetent ‘no-recession helicopter ben’ has nothing whatsoever to be cocky about; he’s clueless as to what to do; satisfied to be helping the frauds on wall street; but in the end, this will end … quite badly! ] Drudgereport:`White House to Slash Heating Program for Poor…but still no pros of massive frauds on wall street which fines and disgorgement of would yield huge amounts to cover spending... [` Howard Davidowitz on the Economy: "Here Are the Numbers ... WE'RE BROKE!" 11-25-10 ‘The U.S. economy "is a complete disaster," Howard Davidowitz declared here in July, the most recent in a string of dire predictions from Tech Ticker's most entertaining guest.On the eve of Thanksgiving, I asked Davidowitz if he had any regrets, or was ready to throw in the towel given recent signs of economic revival. Are you kidding me? "Here are the numbers...we're broke," Davidowitz declares, noting the U.S. government goes $5 billion deeper into debt every day and is facing $1 trillion-plus annual deficits for the next decade. "In other words, we're bankrupt."As with the economy, Davidowitz is unwaveringly consistent in his views on President Obama, calling him "deranged, dysfunctional and discredited."Results of the midterm election show "the people of this country think we are in a catastrophe," he says. "I'm with them."Check the accompanying video for more of Howard's unfettered opinions and stay tuned for additional clips from this interview. And...Happy Thanksgiving! Aaron Task is the host of Tech Ticker. You can follow him on Twitter at @atask or email him at altask@yahoo.com’ Timid Tuesday: Is it Safe? Davis ‘… This is how we pay off our current debts and I think bondholders are simply happy to get anything out of a country that admits it owes $15Tn (1/4 of global GDP) but probably owes closer to $60Tn (entire global GDP) in the form of unfunded liabilities. The funniest thing about this (and you have to laugh) is to see Conservative pundits get on TV and talk about how we need to cut $100Bn worth of discretionary spending to "fix" this (while continuing to spend $1Tn on the military and $1Tn on tax cuts for the top 1% each year). There is no fixing this and even a Republican said you can’t fool all of the people all of the time. THIS HOUSE OF CARDS IS TEETERING FOLKS – PLEASE BE CAREFUL OUT THERE! ‘`]` ] Fed chairman offers dire warnings about the damage Congress could wreak if it refrains from raising the government's debt limit this spring.

Rep. Lee (R-N.Y.) resigns after Craigslist incident (Washington Post) [ I am truly astounded; and, I say that without even a tinge of sarcasm. Where is the corpus dilicti here. That he is a fool and somewhat a dummy, if such is the standard for resignation, then all of capital hill should be tendering their resignations en masse. After all, aside from the inherent conflict, and particularly in light of a financial / fiscal / economic disaster in large part of their own making and compounding by failing to prosecute the perps and instead accommodate their crimes, ie., FASB rule change, etc., does not the consistent though undeserved raises they give themselves constitute of sorts a defalcation of duty, responsibility, and trust. Unlike congress, indeed all the pervasively corrupt and incompetent branches of u.s. government in their day-to-day activities / course of business, though tasteless, sleazy, etc., this so-called incident is without a corpus dilicti. It kind of reminds me of that scene in ‘Road to Perdition’ when mob kingpin Newman responds (in a somewhat incredulous, come on, who you kidding way) to former footsoldier Hanks by reminding him that they’re all murderers (in the room-including Hanks).] Move came after a Web site reported that the married congressman had e-mailed a shirtless image of himself to a woman he met online.

Rumors Cause Some Selling: Dave's Daily [But more than a rumor, it is a market top] ‘A rumor making the rounds, later denied, was hedge fund kingpin Paul Tudor Jones was calling a market top. That caused a bout of selling which naturally increased volume from those weak handed investors. Nevertheless, PTJ's PR people stated: "Phooey" and that was that. There may also be some nervousness over current and impending arrests for insider trading. The bigger news is the divergence of emerging markets from previous "got to own" status to just the opposite as some $10 billion has come out of linked ETFs and markets are selling-off. With rumor denials confirmed meant a sharp late day recovery rally seemed logical as dip buyers are still ever present. The obligatory "buy program express" hit the tape late to keep losses to a minimum while the clear market leader DJIA (window dressing for the tourists) eked-out a slight gain. The Fed had tossed in another round of POMO and late in the day trading desks have to do "something" with it. Earnings continued to roll-in with impressive results. Coke came in with solid earnings that met expectations for example. Economic data was slim with more impressive stuff for Thursday. Then there was the much discussed ("what does it mean" news) that the German Bourse and NYSE will merge. The world gets smaller and perhaps more efficient while New York and perhaps Chicago lose some prestige and business…’

Cisco And Akamai Are Getting Crushed After Hours, So NASDAQ Futures Are Diving Weisenthal, On Wednesday February 9, 2011, 4:59 pm EST ‘It's going to be a pretty ugly day tomorrow for big tech. At least if the action right now is indicative.Two big names are diving.The first is Cisco, which is down 7% after hours on pretty meh earnings. The number was fine, but on the call the company has revealed margin pressure, and this is basically looking like a repeat of last quarter when the stock tanked after earnings.The other is Akamai, which is also down hard, on a revenue outlook that's less than impressive. The revenue outlook was well below expectations.With these two players diving, it's no surprise that NASDAQ-100 futures are getting whacked after hours, indicating a slide of more than 0.5%.Tech, of course, has been particularly hot of late.’

Is the Market Headed for a Sell-Off? Zaky [ Yes … I agree, except that fundamentally the longer term prospects are even worse than his bearish outlook suggests (don’t forget the debasement of the dollar, manipulation, and spending / printing money the nation doesn’t have in real terms behind this manipulated uptick) and summarized as follows: ‘I suspect that this rally is on its very last legs. We should see a very healthy 10% or so correction within the next 1-2 week period ... This market is headed for a sell-off. ]

2011 Update: Another Lost Decade for Stocks - Are You Prepared? [ I agree that this is but a (manipulated) bull cycle in a secular bear market with substantially worse to come! ]Kopas ‘In February 2010, we published an article on Seeking Alpha entitled “Another Lost Decade for Stocks - Are You Prepared?,” wherein we argued that the year 2000 marked a secular (long-term) peak for U.S. stocks. A secular bear market is formed when a series of business cycles are linked together, establishing an extended period of stock market under-performance. Our objective here is to bring you up-to-date on the progress of this secular bear market and help you prepare for the next ten years…’

How to Squeeze the Most Out of a Late-Stage Rally Maierhofer ‘Something curious happened the last two months. In December, the investment community turned extremely bullish on stocks. By some measures optimism shot through the roof and eclipsed some of the readings seen at the 2007 all-time highs.Such extremes usually lead to some sort of a correction. In October 2007 they were followed by a 50%+ decline, in April 2010 by a near 20% decline. But not in December, prices kept climbing and curiously, sentiment starting fading away from the December extremes.In general, that is good news for anyone owning stocks, but sentiment is still elevated to a degree where being long stocks is quite risky. Testament is the fear barometer - the VIX (Chicago Options: ^VIX) fell to a 3 year low yesterday.

Technical Cracks

In addition to a constant flow of bad news domestically and abroad, some technical indicators are flashing red flags.Since the last mini sell-off on January 28 (when Egypt made front-page news), volume has dropped precipitously. Over 1.3 billion shares were traded on the NYSE when the S&P (SNP: ^GSPC), Dow Jones (DJI: ^DJI), and Nasdaq (Nasdaq: ^IXIC) dropped about 2% on January 28.The last five trading days saw volume of less than 1 billion shares (see chart below). According to technical analysis 101, low volume up days and high volume down days isn't exactly bullish. [chart] A look at the percentage of stocks trading above their 50-day moving average also conveys weakness. Five weeks ago 80% of stocks trading on the NYSE were above their respective 50-day MA. Since then the S&P (NYSEArca: IVV - News) has tagged on 5%, but the percentage of stocks above their 50-day MA has fallen to 75%.

2011 Performance - 52%?

Year-to-date the S&P 500 is up 5% - that's 5% in five weeks or 1% a week. At this pace the S&P is on course to gain 52% in 2011. Is that realistic?At some point in the not too distant future, traders are likely to look at the year-to-date performance and say, that's too good to be true!We've seen such 'too good to be true moments' in January and April 2010. Below is a small sampling of headlines that appeared within a day or two of the April 2010 peak, and days before the May 'Flash Crash.'

Bloomberg: 'U.S. stocks cheapest since 1990'

Wall Street Journal: Consumer mojo lifts profits'

Reuters: 'Greece contagion fears unfounded'

Yahoo Tech Ticker: 'S&P could hit 3000 by 2020'

Newsweek: 'America is back - The remarkable tale of an economic turnaround'

In contrast to that warm and fuzzy feeling, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter warned on April 16: 'The message conveyed by the composite bullishness is unmistakably bearish. The pieces are in place for a major decline.'The Fed-funded money flow has kept a constant bid beneath prices, but the common expectation that this pre-Presidential election year is going to be gang busters, particularly after a strong January, is reason for suspicion.

Safety Nets

The easiest way to guard against an unwanted decline is simply to sell. This locks in profits but often comes with the annoying side effect of having to watch stocks go up, while you are sitting on the sideline.Before buying or selling anything, investors should ask themselves whether they prefer to be on the sideline while stocks go up, or be fully invested when stocks go down. One of the two scenarios is bound to happen, at least temporarily.If you are not ready to cut loose from your stocks, you may consider buying put protection. $420 buys you the right to sell SPY at 132 anytime before May 20, 2011. If you want to spend less money for an earlier expiration date, the April put sells for $320, and the March put for $230. Like an insurance policy, this gives you piece of mind for a small premium.

Eagle Eye

As per the VIX, complacency is ever present right now, but that's exactly the time you want to be on guard. Like a thief, the market strikes when least expected.An effective way to limit risk and maximize profits is to set sell stops at major support levels. The market often tests support before resuming its uptrend. If support fails, watch out.Back in November, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter highlighted the pivotal role of the 1,170 level. The S&P tested - but never broke below - that level five times before continuing its diabolical up trend.Where is today's key support level? As per the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter a failed low-risk entry would be the sign for a trend reversal. What is a failed low-risk entry? This signal is based on the percentR indicator, a measure of relative strength.In a strong market, particularly after a long up trend, percentR will hover above 80. A powerful enough decline can result in a drop below 80. Once percentR closes below 80 it will trigger a bullish low risk entry.It triggered such low-risk entries on January 19 and 28. It would have taken another down day and a close below that day's low, to get a failed low-risk entry. In January, it would have taken a close below 1,279 and 1,275 to confirm a low-risk entry. It never happened.Since stocks have gained about 4% since the last low-risk entry, it's likely that the next low-risk entry will occur at higher prices. To pinpoint this major support now would be speculation. It's for sure, though, that no bear market will start without a failed low-risk entry…’

Stocks End Mostly Lower Midnight Trader ‘4:32 PM, Feb 9, 2011 --

NYSE down 35.86 (-0.4%) to 8,343.99
DJIA up 6.74 (+0.06%) to 12,240
S&P 500 down 3.69 (-0.3%) to 1,321
Nasdaq down 7.98 (-0.3%) to 2,789

GLOBAL SENTIMENT

Hang Seng down 1.36%
Nikkei down 0.17%
FTSE down 0.64%

UPSIDE MOVERS

(+) TTWO easily beats with results.
(+) DIS beats with results.
(+) TSTC CEO buying shares.
(+) RL beats with results.
(+) CHBT beats with results.
(+) CHKP hikes buyback program.
(+) BIDU upgraded.
(+) PLAB guides higher.

DOWNSIDE MOVERS

(-) JOE exploring alternatives, including possible sale.
(-) FSLR inks new deal.
(-) WFC continues drop seen after announcing CFO retirement.
(-) BCDS misses with results, outlook.
(-) SNY warns for declining profit.

MARKET DIRECTION

Stock averages end narrowly mixed after spending a soggy session mostly in negative territory. Still, the blue-chip Dow's late-day spurt lands it barely in positive territory, just enough to extend its win streak to eight sessions. Strong consumer names such as Coca-Cola (KO) and Disney (DIS) gained, limiting the Dow's drop, after upbeat earnings reports. Wall Street is cooling off a bit as averages hit fresh multi-year highs earlier in the week. Major benchmarks are up more than 5% so far this year. Stocks also slipped as investors digested Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke's continuing testimony on the economic outlook and monetary and fiscal policy to the House Budget Committee. Speaking before the committee, Bernanke said that last month's jobless rate decline to 9% from 9.8% offers some reason for optimism, but said it would likely be several years before the unemployment rate returns to more normal levels, according to MarketWatch. Bernake said, despite economic improvements, the central bank will continue with its $600 billion stimulus plan. There were no major economic reports out today.

In company news:

Visa (V) was down on plans to buy PlaySpan, a privately held company whose payments platform handles transactions for digital goods in online games, digital media and social networks globally. According to the company, the acquisition will complement its 2010 CyberSource acquisition and extend its capabilities into one of the fastest-growing segments of eCommerce - digital and mobile commerce.

eBay (EBAY) was down following a Bloomberg report that the online auction company is planning to lay out a three-year plan tomorrow to expand its PayPal unit business and repel threats from Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL). PayPal is eBay's fastest-growing business. The service is set to generate more sales than eBay's e-commerce market place, the report said.

Teva Pharmaceuticals (TEVA) shares were lower despite positive drug trial news. Teva said results from a Phase III study of QNAZE HFA, its nasal aerosol corticosteroid in development to treat perennial allergic rhinitis (PAR) and seasonal allergic rhinitis, achieved all primary and secondary efficacy endpoints, demonstrating significantly greater relief of nasal symptoms, including runny nose, nasal congestion, nasal itching and sneezing, compared with placebo.

Goldman Sachs (GS) shares were down after Goldman Chief Financial Officer David Viniar said the company bought too many hard-to-sell assets before the financial crisis in 2008, Bloomberg reported. The comments came from a conference in Miami hosted by Credit Suisse. Viniar said that Goldman was "buying more illiquid assets than we probably should have."

French drug maker Sanofi-Aventis (SNY) was down following news that ongoing efforts to win over its takeover target U.S biotech Genzyme (GENZ) has prompted the firm to expect an earnings decline this year of between 5% and 10%. The company said it expects generic competition to accelerate next year and predicts a 5% to 10% decline in 2011 business earnings per share. The forecast does not assume a return of generic competition to cancer treatment Eloxatin in the U.S., or any benefit from the possible acquisition of Genzyme, the company said in its only reference to Genzyme in the quarterly earnings statement.

Investors are awaiting results from networking giant Cisco Systems (CSCO) due after the close today. Analysts are looking for Cisco to report EPS of $0.35 per share. In particular, analysts will be looking to see if CEO John Chambers joins other executives who are becoming more upbeat about the global economy.

Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) and BP (BP) are planning to close and sell refineries in the United States and Germany due to declining demand for fuels like gasoline, Bloomberg reports.
In earnings news:
--Alpha Natural Resources (ANR) reports Q4 EPS of $0.27, vs. Street estimates of $0.24 per share. Revenue was $993 million, better than expectations of $970 million.
--Coca-Cola (KO) reports Q4 adjusted EPS of $0.72, up 9% from the year-ago quarter and in line with the Thomson Reuters mean analyst estimate. Revenue of $10.5 billion tops the $7.5 billion seen a year ago. The Street expected $9.96 billion.
--Polo Ralph Lauren (RL) posted net income of $168 million, or $1.72 per diluted share, for the third quarter of fiscal 2011, versus net income of $111 million, or $1.10 per diluted share, for the same period in fiscal 2010. The Street view was $1.29 per share in earnings.’

Expanded Free Trade: Exporting Jobs [ When you come right down to it, this has been america’s most significant export. Indeed, this irrevocable structural shift, hailed by cia men hw bush and clinton (clinton couldn’t have survived without them) by way of NAFTA as the greatest thing since sliced bread was indeed in no uncertain terms condemned and warned against by Perot, a man of honor who, unlike his opponents, could not be bought, which is the reason, in pervasively corrupt america, he could never have been elected. Interestingly, you may have noticed the good (but not great, other than the spotlight on pervasive bribery including judges, police, politicians, etc., being far too light) the film ‘The Untouchables’ getting a wide re-airing of late, purporting to be a significant part of american folklore / history / culture. However, the reality is that in america, and certainly today, the real story with impact is that of ‘The Touchables’. The reality is that Elliot Ness died a broken man; bankrupt, unable to even win election to the mayoralty of his then current hometown. He was incorruptible; and hence, in the real america, unelectable at the least if not also all but unemployable (he and his are among those few genetic anomalies in america as I’ve previously alluded to. How far america has fallen from even false perception! Pervasively corrupt, meaningfully lawless america can’t even fake it anymore. See, for example, http://albertpeia.com/CIAAgentAffidavit1.jpg http://albertpeia.com/FBIAgentAffidavit11.jpg , and of course, corrupt legal / judicial processes, etc., Defacto bankrupt, fraudulent america also spends more on offensive (defensive a misnomer / propaganda) military spending than all the nations of the world combined, and by a large margin at that. Do you see a pattern emerging here [ I unfortunately only belatedly did, and the feds, fed employees, cia, all 3 branches of the u.s. government, etc., are included in this evolved american trait of inherent criminality in the most nefarious sense ( http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm ) ]:

CRIME STATISTICS > TOTAL CRIMES (MOST RECENT) BY COUNTRY SHOWING LATEST AVAILABLE DATA (america’s No. 1).

Rank	Countries	Amount
# 1	United States:	11,877,218
# 2	United Kingdom:	6,523,706
# 3	Germany:	6,507,394

… The following youtube video is well worth the look and explains how and why the frauds on wall street have gotten away with their devastating fraud thus far. The frauds on wall street et als should be criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed. ( `UPDATE: MORE CLAIMS OF RACE BIAS AT JUSTICE...` `CIVIL RIGHTS PANEL TO PURSUE FED PROBE IN BLACK PANTHER CASE...` ex-Justice official quit over the handling of a voter intimidation case against the New Black Panther Party accused his former employer of instructing attorneys in the civil rights division to ignore cases that involve black defendants and white victims `US v. AZ...` Cases against Wall Street lag despite Holder’s vows to target financial fraud Obama broke promises ):

‘THE OBAMA DECEPTION’ http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eAaQNACwaLw&feature=PlayList&p=2EFAB57B44063742&playnext_from=PL&index=0&playnext=1. [ The Obama Deception Number 1 on U.S. Google Trends ]

Then there is the well researched, produced, and informative ‘ESOTERIC AGENDA’ which explains how we’ve gotten to this forlorn point: http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-7052400717834950257#

For the Same Reason I’ve Included Here a Web Site Archived FLV Version of Esoteric Agenda http://albertpeia.com/esotericagenda.flv

] Lounsbury ‘In January Steven Hansen observed that, through November, the trade deficit for manufactured goods was the equivalent of 1.3 million workers earning the median manufacturing wage in the U.S. Well, the trade deficit has been with us in a major way for nearly two decades. I am reminded of the 1992 presidential campaign where one of the three candidates, Ross Perot, argued against the adoption of NAFTA, The North American Free Trade Agreement. The other two candidates supported NAFTA.Perot is famous for his statement that a free trade agreement that was not a two way street would create a “giant sucking sound” of jobs going south to the cheap labor markets of Mexico. Both of Perot’s opponents (George H.W. Bush and Bill Clinton) argued that NAFTA would create jobs in the U.S. because of business expansion.However, the goods balance of trade for the U.S. with Mexico has been negative and steadily growing over the years. In 2010 it amounted to $61.6 billion, which was 9.5% of the total goods trade deficit last year.

So Perot has been vindicated in his opinion; expanded free trade has not been accompanied by an increase in jobs in the U.S. relative to the vast numbers of jobs created in the rest of the world as NAFTA became just a stepping stone on the pathway to global commerce.

Veronique de Rugy has produced a graph which shows how manufacturing output and manufacturing employment have varied over the years 1975 – 2010.

click to enlarge images

[chart]

The giant sucking sound actually started in 1980 as manufacturing employment peaked in 1979. The decline in employment in 1980-83 can be associated with the double recessions of that time period, which was also evidenced in the drop in manufacturing output. But when the recovery took hold, manufacturing resumed strong growth but employment gradually declined from 1984 to 2000, after which the decline accelerated.

Now, to be fair, not all the employment decline was due to increased employment overseas. Trade deficits remained fairly benign by 21^st century standards. Employment declined significantly because of productivity improvements as more and more automation replaced manual labor. However, some of the decline was undoubtedly due to increased importation of goods to the U.S.

The rapid growth in the trade deficit for goods began in the early 1990s and we will start our detailed examination of the data with 1992, in deference to Mr. Perot.

Growth of the Trade Deficit for Goods

The first two tables show pertinent annual data. The table on the left shows the trade balance for goods. The table on the right shows the value of U.S. manufactured goods and manufacturing payroll employment.

[chart]

The sources for the data used in these tables are:

Trade Balance: Goods, Balance of Payments Basis (BOPGTB)
MANEMP Non-Farms Payrolls Manufacturing
Total Value of Manufactured Products Federal Reserve Statistical Release G.17, Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization: Table 9

Productivity Improvement

In 19 years the value of U.S. manufacturing output has risen by 58% while manufacturing employment has declined by 31%. It only took 2.5 manufacturing employees in 2010 to produce what 5.8 employees produced in 1992. The dramatic improvement in labor productivity (and loss of jobs) is emphasized by the following graph.

[chart]

Jobs Equivalent to Manufactured Goods Trade Deficit

One cannot say that there is a U.S. jobs loss exactly equal to the trade deficit for manufactured goods. Here are some reasons:

The goods trade deficit may have led to a more favorable balance of exchange in other areas, for example in export of services. This would have produced more U.S. service jobs.
The trade balance deficit may have produced foreign investment in the U.S. that would not have otherwise occurred, creating domestic jobs.
The trade deficit may have actually increase demand for exports of goods still manufactured in the U.S.
Foreign employment may have been created for U.S. citizens that would not otherwise have occurred.
If the manufacturing had remained in the U.S. productivity gains might have been even greater than have been experienced.

However, it is not unreasonable to make the assumption that a significant portion of the manufacturing jobs equivalent to the trade deficit would have been created in the U.S.

The U.S. manufacturing jobs equivalence of the goods trade deficit is shown for each of the years starting with 1992 in the following table, along with the cumulative total. Hereafter we refer to the jobs equivalence as “jobs exported”.

[chart]

The jobs exported each year are shown in the following graph.

[chart]

The following graph shows that there have been a cumulative total of almost 29 million jobs exported over the past 19 years.

[chart]

Unemployment Today and the Counterfactual Labor Shortage

The total number of people employed today according to the latest BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) data is 139.3 million. If just half of the exported jobs were retained in the U.S., there would be about 153 million employed. The current civilian labor force is only 153 million so there would be no slack in the labor force at all. However, the labor participation rate has fallen from 67% in 2000-01 to 64.2% today. If the participation rate returned to 67% the civilian labor force would be 160 million. With 153 million employed the unemployment rate would be 4.4% and we would be complaining of labor shortages.

The Sweet Spot

If only some, even less than half, of the manufacturing that has been outsourced had been retained in the U.S., it is likely that there would still be an emerging market boom, but there would not be the severe structural unemployment problem that exists today in the U.S. It seems, looking at these numbers, that where we are is not the result of doing a fundamentally bad thing. It could be argued that it is actually the result of taking a good thing too far. It seems we missed the sweet spot and simply botched a beautiful shot.

Free Trade is a very good thing, but free trade taken too far is destructive. Hard data shows why.

Related Article

USA Trade Deficit Exports 1.3 million Jobs by Steven Hansen’

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ABC Consumer Comfort Index Plunges To Year Lows On Surging Gas Prices Once again the ABC Consumer Comfort index indicates that it is leaps and bounds more relevant than the ADP Private Payroll number.

Shocking Video Of Howard Dean Declaring That It Is The Job Of The Government To Redistribute Our Wealth In the shocking video you are about to watch, Howard Dean declares that it is the job of the government to redistribute our wealth.

Bernanke's Worst Nightmare Is This Man's Boxes: Caroline Baum BusinessWeek Feb. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Ben Bernanke arrived at his office a week ago and came face to face with his worst nightmare. Staring out at the Federal Reserve chairman from page C1 of the Feb. 3 edition of the Wall Street Journal was a photo ... The Associated Press Video: Republicans Grill Bernanke Over Inflation, Debt Paul calls Fed's Bernanke "cocky" in House hearing Reuters [ Yeah … Come on! … The incompetent ‘no-recession helicopter ben’ has nothing whatsoever to be cocky about; he’s clueless as to what to do; satisfied to be helping the frauds on wall street; but in the end, this will end … quite badly! ]

(2-9-11) Dow 12,239 +6 Nasdaq 2,789 -8 S&P 500 1,320 -4 [CLOSE- OIL $86.79 (-54% for year 2008) (RECORD TRADING HIGH $147.27) GAS $3.11 (reg. gas in LAND OF FRUITS AND NUTS $3.35 REG./ $3.53 MID-GRADE/ $3.62 PREM./ $3.68 DIESEL) / GOLD $1,365 (+24% for year 2009) / SILVER $30.29 (+47% for year 2009) PLATINUM $1,845 (+56% for year 2009) / DOLLAR= .72 EURO, 82 YEN, .62 POUND STERLING, ETC. (How low can you go - LOWER)/ http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/update 10 YR NOTE YIELD 3.65% …..… AP Business Highlights ...Yahoo Market Update... T. Rowe Price Weekly Recap – Stocks / Bonds / Currencies - Domestic / International This Is a Secular Bear Market and The End of Buy and Hold … and Hope MARKET MANIPULATION AND HOW THE LATEST BUBBLE-FRAUD PRE-COMING CRASH IS BEING ACCOMPLISHED 3-11-10 6 Theories On Why the Stock Market Has Rallied 3-9-10 [archived website file] Risks Lurk for ETF Investors The bull market that never was/were beyond wall street b.s. when measured in gold Property Values Projected to Fall 12% in 2010 Jan 31, 2010 The Week Ahead: Risk Is Off the Cliff; Unwind Has Begun Jan 31, 2010 01-13-10 Forecast for 2010 from Seeking Alpha Contributor THE COMING MARKET CRASH / CORRECTION 1-28-10 Maierhofer (01-15-10) 11 Clear Signs Economy Sinking Economic Black Hole 1-22-10: 20 Reasons Why The U.S. Economy Is Dying And Is Simply Not Going To Recover Current Economic / Fiscal Charts Trendsresearch.com forecast for 2009 1-7-10 Crash is coming! ‘WORST ECONOMIC COLLAPSE EVER’ Must Read Economic / Financial Data This Depression is just beginning The coming depression… thecomingdepression.net MUST READ: JEREMY GRANTHAM’S QUARTERLY UPDATE 25 January 2010 (850 on the S&P) by TPC The Next Wave of Collapse is Coming Sooner than you think Sliding Back Into the Great Depression ABSOLUTELY, ABSURDLY, RIDICULOUS! SELL / TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME!

National / World

Alex Jones Exposes “See Something, Say Something” as Patent Fraud Kurt Nimmo | There is no mechanism available to report real terrorism because it does not exist.

“See Something, Say Something” Exposed As Hoax Paul Joseph Watson | Alex Jones proves it’s impossible to report terror threats because the government has no interest in preventing terror.

DC News Station Covers “V For Victory” Campaign Infowars | Congress is questioning a new Homeland Security campaign called “If you see something, say something.”

As Government Prepares to Ban Lightbulbs, Americans Stock Up Paul Joseph Watson | Iconic Thomas Edison invention to be replaced with toxic mercury-filled, illness-causing CFLs by 2014 unless Ron Paul can lead successful fight back.

“Inexcusable”: TSA STILL Refusing To Release Naked Scanner Safety Reports Steve Watson | TSA once again lies, tells media machines are not capable of storing images.

TSA Blocks Airports From Hiring Private Security Back in January there was a healthy sign that a handful of airports around the country were saying no to the TSA and its sexual molestation searches and naked body porno scanners. Airport managers said they are opposed to the federal government telling them how to run security.

Leftists Attack Arianna Huffington For Selling Out To “Megacorp” AOL “She exploited our idealism and let us labor under the illusion that the Huffington Post was different, independent and leftist. Now she’s cashed in and three thousand indie bloggers find themselves working for a megacorp.”

Obamacare Advocate: Make Refusniks Wear Gold Stickers A leading advocate of Obamacare told NPR yesterday that Americans who refuse to pay for health care should be forced to wear gold stickers on their foreheads and refused emergency hospital treatment, in a chilling throwback to how Jews were persecuted by being made to wear yellow stars by the Nazis during the occupation of Europe.

Blago lawyers claim tape of phone call with Rahm Emanuel has disappeared from evidence NBC Chicago | Attorneys for former governor Rod Blagojevich have asked a federal judge to order prosecutors to produce two phone calls his lawyers say are mysteriously missing from evidence.

Man says ex-CIA agent Posada gave him explosives for hotel bombing Raw Story | Otto Rene Rodriguez said that he was given C-4 explosives and $2,000 by Luis Posada Carriles to enable the bombing at Havana’s Melia Cohiba hotel on Aug. 3, 1997.

‘Welfare Bum’ JP Morgan: We Need Gold! By making the announcement, J.P. Morgan is effectively saying gold is as rock solid an investment as triple-A rated Treasurys, adding to a movement that places gold at the top tier of asset classes.

Alex Jones: Feds Admit Emergency Takeover System Commissioners voted last week to require television and radio stations, cable systems and satellite TV providers to participate in a test that would have them receive and transmit a live code that includes an alert message issued by the president.

China police stop spread of Egypt news: activist Police in southwest China have barred activists from distributing leaflets about anti-government protests in Egypt and Tunisia, deeming the news too sensitive, one dissident said Wednesday.

Drudgereport: Oil hits $101 again... Paul Ryan confronts over Fed's purchases of debt... Soaring debt pushes Portugal towards bailout... House GOP Targets Dozens of Gov't Programs...
CUT, CUT, CUT...
White House to Slash Heating Program for Poor…but still no pros of massive frauds on wall street which fines and disgorgement of would yield huge amounts to cover spending... [ Howard Davidowitz on the Economy: "Here Are the Numbers ... WE'RE BROKE!" 11-25-10 ‘The U.S. economy "is a complete disaster," Howard Davidowitz declared here in July, the most recent in a string of dire predictions from Tech Ticker's most entertaining guest.On the eve of Thanksgiving, I asked Davidowitz if he had any regrets, or was ready to throw in the towel given recent signs of economic revival. Are you kidding me? "Here are the numbers...we're broke," Davidowitz declares, noting the U.S. government goes $5 billion deeper into debt every day and is facing $1 trillion-plus annual deficits for the next decade. "In other words, we're bankrupt."As with the economy, Davidowitz is unwaveringly consistent in his views on President Obama, calling him "deranged, dysfunctional and discredited."Results of the midterm election show "the people of this country think we are in a catastrophe," he says. "I'm with them."Check the accompanying video for more of Howard's unfettered opinions and stay tuned for additional clips from this interview. And...Happy Thanksgiving! Aaron Task is the host of Tech Ticker. You can follow him on Twitter at @atask or email him at altask@yahoo.com’ Timid Tuesday: Is it Safe? Davis ‘… This is how we pay off our current debts and I think bondholders are simply happy to get anything out of a country that admits it owes $15Tn (1/4 of global GDP) but probably owes closer to $60Tn (entire global GDP) in the form of unfunded liabilities. The funniest thing about this (and you have to laugh) is to see Conservative pundits get on TV and talk about how we need to cut $100Bn worth of discretionary spending to "fix" this (while continuing to spend $1Tn on the military and $1Tn on tax cuts for the top 1% each year). There is no fixing this and even a Republican said you can’t fool all of the people all of the time. THIS HOUSE OF CARDS IS TEETERING FOLKS – PLEASE BE CAREFUL OUT THERE! ‘] UNDERDOG: CNN POLL: 51% SEE NO SECOND TERM FOR OBAMA... 71% OF ALL VEGAS HOMEOWNERS UNDER WATER...
'New normal' in housing bust...
STRESS... Job openings fall for second straight month...HOUSE VOTES NEXT WEEK TO BLOCK OBAMACARE FUNDS
WE'RE ON 'ROAD TO RUIN'

UPDATE: Egypt sees largest demos since start of revolt...
NEW WORLD TRADES...
Global Stock Exchanges Headed for Major Consolidation...
D Börse, NYSE in advanced talks...
London takes Canada...
Exchange chiefs seek new global powerhouses...

SAUDIS TOLD OBAMA 'NOT TO HUMILIATE MUBARAK' [ Sounds like they’re hearing footsteps…Previous: Egyptian capital teeters on anarchy Mubarak asks cabinet to resign as anti-regime protests intensify (Washington Post) [ Mubarak should have been looking in the mirror as he asked his cabinet to resign … 30 years is a long time, and coincidentally, time for him to go. In Egypt: Access denied (Washington Post) [The day part of the Internet died: Egypt goes dark [I disagree! Part of the internet didn’t die, but rather the order to so darken the nation heralded the demise, at 30 years and counting, of the so-called leadership in the persona of Mubarak. Time for him to go! After all, he’s been in a position, with Egypt among the only Mideast nations to have signed a peace treaty with israel, to have stepped up with substantial credibility in taking a strong position against israeli transgressions, violations of international law / u.n. resolutions, war crimes, etc., which beyond soft-touch, he failed to do. And, of all places, he sends his family to Orwellian england; he still loves those colonial masters … how pathetic. I mean, 30 years … how free-flowing does anyone think the election process is at this point … and one could ask the same regarding the entrenched powers that be in pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt america, to be fair. Then there’s saudi arabia; talk about do nothing hypocrites. How does one family claim ownership of all the oil reserves of a sovereign nation; I suspect only when foreign corporations say so. The only Mideast nations showing backbone are Turkey, Lebanon, and Syria, and, of course the perennially propaganda painted bad-boy Iran among possibly some of the smaller emirates, ie., Qatar, etc., (I lack sufficient information regarding these other nations). ] (AP) Internet cutoff fails to silence Egypt protests (AP) - AP - In its effort to silence protesters, Egypt took a step that's rare even among authoritarian governments: It cut off the Internet across the entire country. Mubarak fires Cabinet, defends army’s efforts Sat, 29 Jan 2011 00:20:58 GMT Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak dismisses his Cabinet, calls on the army to help put down rising potests... Egypt's Mubarak sends in army, resists demands to quit (Reuters) - 1 hour agoReuters - Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak refused on Saturday to bow to demands that he resign after ordering troops and tanks into cities in an attempt to quell an explosion of street protests again... ] Embattled leader's move falls far short of demands that he give up his 30-year authoritarian rule, leave the country and permit fresh elections. ]

Go to following pages for above links:
http://www.albertpeia.com/currentopics2ndqtr10108.htm
http://www.albertpeia.com
http://www.albertpeia.com/alresume.htm

http://www.albertpeia.com/wallstreetlunacy2ndqtr10108.htm

http://www.scribd.com/alpeia

You may post a comment on my blog on any topic: http://alpeiablog.blogspot.com

Debt relief for states proposed (Washington Post) [ I’ve heard of the ‘blind leading the blind’, but the ‘bankrupt borrowing from the bankrupt’ seems to be a nouveau american phenomenon destined for ‘clichedom’. Previous: Governors plan painful cuts amid budget crises (Washington Post) [ This truly is a disaster in the making, with consequences even more dire than the grim outlook set forth by Meridith Whitney, if that could even be fathomed. It’s really going to be all that bad…see infra, The Economic Collapse, ‘#10 The municipal bond crisis could go “supernova” at any time. Already, investors are bailing out of bonds at a frightening pace. State and local government debt is now sitting at an all-time high of 22 percent of U.S. GDP. According to Meredith Whitney, the municipal bond crisis that we are facing is a gigantic threat to our financial system….

“It has tentacles as wide as anything I’ve seen. I think next to housing this is the single most important issue in the United States and certainly the largest threat to the U.S. economy.”

Former Los Angeles mayor Richard Riordan is convinced that things are so bad that literally 90% of our states and cities could go bankrupt over the next five years…. ‘ ] Governors across the ideological spectrum are embracing the politics of austerity in a desperate effort to balance the books. ] Proposal would ease financial burden on many state governments in the wake of the recession.

At CIA, mistakes by officers are often overlooked (Washington Post) [ Duuuh! I want to know of even one thing that’s not overlooked concerning those incompetent mental cases at the cia; from assassinations, to illegal drug dealing, to illegal arms sales, to corruption, to disinformation, etc., to america’s and the world’s (ie., those WMD’s in Iraq, etc.) substantial detriment. See also, ie., http://albertpeia.com/CIAAgentAffidavit1.jpg http://albertpeia.com/FBIAgentAffidavit11.jpg , and of course, corrupt legal / judicial processes, etc., Defacto bankrupt, fraudulent america also spends more on offensive (defensive a misnomer / propaganda) military spending than all the nations of the world combined, and by a large margin at that. Do you see a pattern emerging here [ I unfortunately only belatedly did, and the feds, fed employees, cia, all 3 branches of the u.s. government, etc., are included in this evolved american trait of inherent criminality in the most nefarious sense ( http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm ) ]:

CRIME STATISTICS > TOTAL CRIMES (MOST RECENT) BY COUNTRY SHOWING LATEST AVAILABLE DATA (america’s No. 1).

Rank	Countries	Amount
# 1	United States:	11,877,218
# 2	United Kingdom:	6,523,706
# 3	Germany:	6,507,394

… The following youtube video is well worth the look and explains how and why the frauds on wall street have gotten away with their devastating fraud thus far. The frauds on wall street et als should be criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed. ( `UPDATE: MORE CLAIMS OF RACE BIAS AT JUSTICE...` `CIVIL RIGHTS PANEL TO PURSUE FED PROBE IN BLACK PANTHER CASE...` ex-Justice official quit over the handling of a voter intimidation case against the New Black Panther Party accused his former employer of instructing attorneys in the civil rights division to ignore cases that involve black defendants and white victims `US v. AZ...` Cases against Wall Street lag despite Holder’s vows to target financial fraud Obama broke promises ):

‘THE OBAMA DECEPTION’ http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eAaQNACwaLw&feature=PlayList&p=2EFAB57B44063742&playnext_from=PL&index=0&playnext=1. [ The Obama Deception Number 1 on U.S. Google Trends ]

Then there is the well researched, produced, and informative ‘ESOTERIC AGENDA’ which explains how we’ve gotten to this forlorn point: http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-7052400717834950257#

For the Same Reason I’ve Included Here a Web Site Archived FLV Version of Esoteric Agenda http://albertpeia.com/esotericagenda.flv

]

Four charged in 'brazen coverup' of insider trading (Washington Post) [ 'The alleged conspirators "lacked a mobster's better-honed instinct for conversational discretion," said Janice K. Fedarcyk, head of the FBI's New York field office.'... Isn't that the truth; not like the big mobsters at goldman sachs, et als, who were well connected with plenty of juice and whose hard drives, conversations, etc., seemed never to make it to the crosshairs of real scrutiny, though any such prosecution of even the small fries like these wall street frauds should be welcomed, but with a sense of bewilderment as to how the aforesaid biggest frauds have yet to be prosecuted for the largest fraud in the history of this world with the consequences of their fraud 'now marked to anything' as they cashed out(that legislated FASB rule change / accommodation /complicity). ] Hedge fund manager allegedly tells colleague: Go to the office and shred "as much as you can."

Humility on the Nile Will: Maybe America's finally realizing the limits of its influence abroad. (Washington Post) [ I believe the power of Mr. Will’s article is twofold: First, that humility thing for america and the concomitant limits of american influence abroad. Like no other time in america’s short-lived history, america has a lot to be humble about. Afterall, america is defacto bankrupt, pervasively corrupt across all institutions whether they be governmental / judicial / private, and literally crime-ridden with crime rates exceeding by large margins those of other so-called civilized / tier one nations. Moreover, much like america’s commander(s) in chief, wobama the b (for b* s* - and war criminal bush), words are belied by actions / misdeeds. Indeed, the propping up of corrupt / criminal / oppressive regimes and the war crimes accompanying destruction and taking of innocent lives are facts lost on no one in this age like never before of ubiquitously available information which renders america’s once formidable propaganda machine now impotent in relative terms.Truth / reality works against america in every way. Second, and as important is that former global dichotomy that Mr. Will references; viz., the cold war and communism versus non-communism. No such simple lines now exist, nor can they be drawn owing to america’s failure, corruption, and meaningful lawlessness on so many levels and with such negative consequences. ]

This is that unmentionable reality as I alluded to earlier on close scrutiny of the data, ‘that stock prices have been manipulated to the upside beyond any and all rational basis‘ and as I previously wrote: Perception vs. Reality: Four Reasons to Remain Cautious on U.S. Equities [ Hey, Abbott … That’s Lou Costello calling him from the other side … Wake up! … Just kidding … but I’m not kidding when I say that contrary to Abbott’s view, infra, if you’re not a successful market timer you should rethink your position as an equity investor. Moreover, in contradistinction to Mr. Abbott’s implication, if you’re not a successful speculator (there are very few), you should rethink your position as a short seller: reason…, you could be wiped out, lose more than your principal, forced to cover (that’s why the same is considered a contrary market indicator, particularly in these manipulated, contrived markets). When I did my MBA thesis (1977, NYU, GBA, Eve.Prog., Finance), a review of the data revealed even then (and much more so now with computer programmed market manipulation) that the market remained biased / propped up (artificially, especially now with computerized manipulation) to the upside for far longer periods of time than for the downside which meant that dollar-cost averaging (through regular, periodic investment, for example), meant you were accumulating shares at higher prices generally for longer periods of time skewing the average cost to the upside (dollar-cost-averaging in declining markets was ok if analysis / forecast saw resurgence based on fundamentals - now absent – which is timing, as even senile wall street / gov’t shill Buffet would attest, that ‘greedy when others are fearful thing’). Abbott discusses perception which is the psychological factor involved in security evaluation / analysis; but investors need not and should become nuts themselves, particularly when as now, the inmates are running the asylum. ] Abbott ‘Perception determines short-term market movements. The difference between perception and reality determines the direction of major market trends. Though I generally try to avoid making macro prognostications, I believe bottom-up analysis can be informative about the current level of stock prices. I want to share what my recent work tells me about where stocks are (and where they might be headed). I will outline some various nuggets of collective wisdom that are taken for granted right now by stock bulls, and I will attempt to demonstrate how reality is likely to differ from these perceptions.

First, a disclaimer. This is not a market timing call. At all times, I stay away from market timing predictions. I think that's a loser's game in the long run. Even if I'm correct about the discrepancies between the following perceptions and realities, there's no saying when people will change their minds or shift their focuses. That said, let's dive in.

Perception vs. Reality #1
Perception: Low Interest Rates, Questionable Bond Outlook Means Stocks are Attractive
Reality: Interest Rates Are Being Artificially and Deliberately Manipulated

It's no secret that the Federal Reserve's low interest rate policy and quantitative easing efforts have held interest rates very low for very long. However, when people talk about stock market implications of bond yields, they rarely mention the fact that bond yields are artificially low. In an unmanipulated market, bond prices and stock valuations should be related, but I regard that connection as highly dubious right now. Investors who say that stocks deserve higher multiples (lower earnings yields) because bond yields are so low may well be setting themselves up for disappointing returns/frustrating losses when bond prices normalize. Again, this isn't a market timing call, and yields may remain low for quite some time. But, eventually this discrepancy will correct itself, and stock performance is likely to suffer at that time.

Perception vs. Reality #2
Perception: Earnings Growth Has Been Strong and Will Remain That Way
Reality: Top-Line Growth Will Have to Pick Up; Cost-Cutting has Run Its Course

Earnings growth has certainly been robust, but much of the strength has come from companies running lean cost structures and wringing as much efficiency as possible out of their employees and their assets. Though the recession has ended, the economy is not yet healthy enough to fuel strong sales growth. Companies can only boost profits by cutting costs and increasing productivity for so long. Therefore, top-line growth will have to play a larger role going forward than it has over the past 4-6 quarters. Whether or not economic growth is strong enough to drive revenue increases is unsure, but the current level of stock prices undoubtedly assumes it is. Any stagnation of the recovery and concomitant sluggish sales will likely hit stock prices.

Perception vs. Reality #3
Perception: European Debt Crisis Drives Short-Term Volatility, but It's Not a Long-Term Concern
Reality: Crisis May Be a Harbinger of What's to Come in the U.S. if States, the Feds Don't Improve Balance Sheets

So far, turmoil in Greece and Ireland has served only as a temporary headwind to U.S. stocks. In keeping with the investment world's increasingly short-term focus, people seem more concerned with what fiscal crises in Europe mean for U.S. stocks over the coming days and months than with what they might mean down the road. I believe that this interpretation misses the mark. Since the U.S. fiscal situtation is generally considered to be stronger than that in many European countries, U.S. federal and municipal debt issuance has been relatively smooth, and interest rates have only risen modestly. If the U.S. doesn't get serious about its fiscal woes, eventually the crisis will arrive on American shores. There's no way of telling when this might happen, but the current level of stock prices seems to imply that it never will.

Here's the problem with that. To fix the federal balance sheet and/or to improve state and municipal balance sheets, legislators will have to raise taxes and/or cut spending. Tax hikes and spending cuts both reduce consumer spending. This hurts growth. There's no way around this. Stocks can certainly continue to rise for some time, but austerity will be bearish if/when it comes. If it doesn't come, we're in for a much bigger crisis some time down the road.

Perception vs. Reality #4
Perception: Everywhere You Look, You See Good Companies at Cheap Prices
Reality: It's Hard to Find Genuine Bargains, but There are Intriguing Short Prospects Everywhere

There is no shortage of stock market commentators who claim that they see bargains everywhere they look. Perhaps I'm not looking in the right places, but I've been having a difficult and increasingly impossible time finding good companies at reasonable prices. I use similar criteria to assess long and short investments, and I find intriguing shorts in lots of sectors right now. This tells me that valuations are stretched. Certainly they can become more so before we get a selloff, but every day that stocks rally, they get more expensive.

I've written on Seeking Alpha about a number of stocks which I regard as expensive (CRM, OPEN, GMCR), and take my word for it: there are plenty more than these whose shares I do not want to own at present levels. A few weeks ago, I also mused about the Facebook-Goldman deal and argued that this valuation is indicative of excessive investor enthusiasm. Bargains are hard to find, and as valuations go up, so does positive sentiment. While this is not a prediction of an impending correction or bear market, it is a message of caution for people who think stocks are cheap right now.

All that said, I always try to consider both sides of any investment issue, and there are some reasons for optimism. Job growth has shown signs of improvement, and some economic data have been increasingly (though not uniformly) positive. The Federal Reserve remains accommodative, and I'm skeptical about whether or not there is political will for austerity. For these reasons, stocks could continue onward and upward. That said, I see too many reasons for caution, and investors are turning a blind eye to these concerns as their complacency rises.’

Go to following pages for above links:
http://www.albertpeia.com/currentopics2ndqtr10108.htm
http://www.albertpeia.com
http://www.albertpeia.com/alresume.htm

http://www.albertpeia.com/wallstreetlunacy2ndqtr10108.htm

http://www.scribd.com/alpeia

You may post a comment on my blog on any topic: http://alpeiablog.blogspot.com

Friday, February 11, 2011

February 10, 2011 posts

Business / Economic / Financial

CRIME STATISTICS > TOTAL CRIMES (MOST RECENT) BY COUNTRY SHOWING LATEST AVAILABLE DATA (america’s No. 1).

‘THE OBAMA DECEPTION’ http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eAaQNACwaLw&feature=PlayList&p=2EFAB57B44063742&playnext_from=PL&index=0&playnext=1. [ The Obama Deception Number 1 on U.S. Google Trends ]

Then there is the well researched, produced, and informative ‘ESOTERIC AGENDA’ which explains how we’ve gotten to this forlorn point: http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-7052400717834950257#

For the Same Reason I’ve Included Here a Web Site Archived FLV Version of Esoteric Agenda http://albertpeia.com/esotericagenda.flv

] ] Ignatius: Its fight against al-Qaeda has distracted the agency.

The Social Security Disaster The average retirement age is measured in spans of five years for accuracy.

Global Stock Exchanges Are Headed for Major Consolidation Germany’s Deutsche Boerse is in advanced talks to buy NYSE Euronext, and the London Stock Exchange has agreed to buy Canadian stock market operator TMX, as exchanges globally look for ways to boost their markets and cut costs.

CRIME STATISTICS > TOTAL CRIMES (MOST RECENT) BY COUNTRY SHOWING LATEST AVAILABLE DATA (america’s No. 1).

‘THE OBAMA DECEPTION’ http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eAaQNACwaLw&feature=PlayList&p=2EFAB57B44063742&playnext_from=PL&index=0&playnext=1. [ The Obama Deception Number 1 on U.S. Google Trends ]

Then there is the well researched, produced, and informative ‘ESOTERIC AGENDA’ which explains how we’ve gotten to this forlorn point: http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-7052400717834950257#

For the Same Reason I’ve Included Here a Web Site Archived FLV Version of Esoteric Agenda http://albertpeia.com/esotericagenda.flv

]] “I would announce, without equivocation, a 25% tax increase on anything purchased from China.”

A Day in the Park Infowars | A strong entry for “The Answer to 1984 is 1776″ Video Contest.

Hitler finds out about the DHS Emergency Alert System and the See Something Say Something program Der Führer spazzes out over Obama stealing his centralized broadcasting system.

Obama Energy Secretary Promises “Massive” Coal Plant Closures Paul Joseph Watson | White House agenda to bankrupt coal industry via EPA regulations accelerates despite rolling blackouts

Big Sis Breaks Out “Heightened” Terror Alert as PATRIOT Act Heads to House Steve Watson & Paul Joseph Watson | Republicans and Democrats attempt to out do each other in quest to finish off freedom.

Victory: The Truth Will Out Infowars.com | Over the last few weeks, we have received a large number of excellent video contest entries.

White House Lies On Blackouts Exposed We have become used to seeing politicians distort the truth, but when such lies are brazenly plastered all over the front page of the White House website, it really highlights how much contempt the government has for the intelligence of the American people.

Mubarak Refuses To Resign: ‘Will Not Be Dictated To By Orders From Outside’ Mubarak said he was not leaving Egypt, and said he “cannot and will not accept to be dictated orders from outside” and would remain until elections in September.

Video: Alex Jones Exposes DHS Terror Fraud After making repeated attempts over several days, Alex Jones demonstrates to his listeners that the DHS reported terrorism threats and citizen spy programs are nothing more than Pavlovian boxes of control.

CRIME STATISTICS > TOTAL CRIMES (MOST RECENT) BY COUNTRY SHOWING LATEST AVAILABLE DATA (america’s No. 1).

‘THE OBAMA DECEPTION’ http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eAaQNACwaLw&feature=PlayList&p=2EFAB57B44063742&playnext_from=PL&index=0&playnext=1. [ The Obama Deception Number 1 on U.S. Google Trends ]

Then there is the well researched, produced, and informative ‘ESOTERIC AGENDA’ which explains how we’ve gotten to this forlorn point: http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-7052400717834950257#

For the Same Reason I’ve Included Here a Web Site Archived FLV Version of Esoteric Agenda http://albertpeia.com/esotericagenda.flv

Gold at EUR1,000/oz – Strong Physical Demand Leading To Illiquid Conditions With the physical gold market remaining very small when compared to the futures and paper gold market (futures, CFDs etc) there are increasing concerns of illiquidity due to the scale of demand and lack of supply.

ABC Consumer Comfort Index Plunges To Year Lows On Surging Gas Prices Once again the ABC Consumer Comfort index indicates that it is leaps and bounds more relevant than the ADP Private Payroll number.

Shocking Video Of Howard Dean Declaring That It Is The Job Of The Government To Redistribute Our Wealth In the shocking video you are about to watch, Howard Dean declares that it is the job of the government to redistribute our wealth.

Alex Jones Exposes “See Something, Say Something” as Patent Fraud Kurt Nimmo | There is no mechanism available to report real terrorism because it does not exist.

“See Something, Say Something” Exposed As Hoax Paul Joseph Watson | Alex Jones proves it’s impossible to report terror threats because the government has no interest in preventing terror.

DC News Station Covers “V For Victory” Campaign Infowars | Congress is questioning a new Homeland Security campaign called “If you see something, say something.”

As Government Prepares to Ban Lightbulbs, Americans Stock Up Paul Joseph Watson | Iconic Thomas Edison invention to be replaced with toxic mercury-filled, illness-causing CFLs by 2014 unless Ron Paul can lead successful fight back.

“Inexcusable”: TSA STILL Refusing To Release Naked Scanner Safety Reports Steve Watson | TSA once again lies, tells media machines are not capable of storing images.

‘Welfare Bum’ JP Morgan: We Need Gold! By making the announcement, J.P. Morgan is effectively saying gold is as rock solid an investment as triple-A rated Treasurys, adding to a movement that places gold at the top tier of asset classes.

Alex Jones: Feds Admit Emergency Takeover System Commissioners voted last week to require television and radio stations, cable systems and satellite TV providers to participate in a test that would have them receive and transmit a live code that includes an alert message issued by the president.

China police stop spread of Egypt news: activist Police in southwest China have barred activists from distributing leaflets about anti-government protests in Egypt and Tunisia, deeming the news too sensitive, one dissident said Wednesday.

CRIME STATISTICS > TOTAL CRIMES (MOST RECENT) BY COUNTRY SHOWING LATEST AVAILABLE DATA (america’s No. 1).

‘THE OBAMA DECEPTION’ http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eAaQNACwaLw&feature=PlayList&p=2EFAB57B44063742&playnext_from=PL&index=0&playnext=1. [ The Obama Deception Number 1 on U.S. Google Trends ]

Then there is the well researched, produced, and informative ‘ESOTERIC AGENDA’ which explains how we’ve gotten to this forlorn point: http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-7052400717834950257#

For the Same Reason I’ve Included Here a Web Site Archived FLV Version of Esoteric Agenda http://albertpeia.com/esotericagenda.flv

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