Saturday, February 12, 2011

February 11, 2011 posts

Business / Economic / Financial

[ This link to a somewhat more cumulative blog posts page will precede current days news since most all topics remain current in terms of impact and longer-term effect and can be searched by topical index term more easily. The same is provided since the blog site http://alpeiablog.blogspot.com has just been censored as to size by google which is typical for google as nsa / cia / gov’t shill as more are becoming aware of. The same is true for microsoft, another co. that’s seen their best days and relies on the government to maintain their monopoly. Up to now the better page http://www.scribd.com/alpeia is provided for ease of formatting and clarity thereby while the Washington Post page is the real deal but without formatting http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/community/mypost/index.html?plckPersonaPage=PersonaComments&plckUserId=alpeia&newspaperUserId=alpeia . The following is the cumulative archive of blog posts / topics for 2010 as the new year starts anew: http://albertpeia.com/December312010postsarchive.htm or PDF formatted version
http://albertpeia.com/December312010postsarchive.pdf ]

Stocks gain as Mubarak resigns (Washington Post) [ Come on! Don’t be ridiculous! Stocks gain regardless of the ‘event resignation’ as pointed out by Dave, immediately infra. The ‘miracle’ of computer-programmed high-frequency trading fraud with fed / congressional complicity, which will inevitably end quite badly for the vast majority at whose expense the gains for the relative few are made. One-Way Market Action: Dave's Daily ‘"To the moon"(Alice) might be a better description of this nonstop bullish action. All week markets were worrying about Egypt. When things were bad there, markets rallied. When things seemed better, markets rallied. When Cisco and Credit Suisse posted lousy reports, markets rallied. When China raised interest rates, markets rallied. Every dip has been bought and every dip has been buying. All this was taking place while many emerging markets were breaking down creating some divergence from previously high inter-market correlations. Things are going so well most reliable technical indicators are getting steamrolled by what those few trading must believe is a rosy future. Market rallies have been steady but not spectacularly higher with daily .50% type moves. But, those add up. Does all this frustrate us? Partially, since active portfolios exited a couple of weeks ago but Lazy Portfolios are doing better. Making sense of Mr. Market has never been an easy proposition. I'm back from attending the annual Inside ETFs conference in Florida where I moderated a panel on technical analysis. Most panelists were bullish but couldn't pin-point why other than "price" analysis. Friday Mubarak gave up probably needing the extra time to round-up the loot before he left town for a Club Med in Dubai or some such place. Markets opened lower on Mubarak's initial determination but then rallied some on his change of heart Friday…’ ] The relief over the embattled leader's departure extends well beyond Tahrir Square.

Ahmadinejad speaks on Egypt (Washington Post) [ ‘Ahmadinejad says Egypt, Tunisia were inspired by Iran's anti-Western protests’ … Yeah … this is really the truth … buttressed by factual reality … I mean, though suffering the economic pain of american / israeli / nato destructive mis-adventures in the mid-east, the american public is relatively insulated from the realities of same, from war crimes to destruction of innocent lives and property, by way of propaganda and inured by their own zombification. The realities of the west’s inflicted horrors have finally come home to roost. There are and will be consequences! This world is not a vacuum. ]

GOP's plan for spending cuts sets Capitol Hill showdown (Washington Post) [ Showdown? How ‘bout hoedown! I mean, give me a break … who’s kidding whom … but the ‘show’ part fits! Timid Tuesday: Is it Safe? Davis ‘… This is how we pay off our current debts and I think bondholders are simply happy to get anything out of a country that admits it owes $15Tn (1/4 of global GDP) but probably owes closer to $60Tn (entire global GDP) in the form of unfunded liabilities. The funniest thing about this (and you have to laugh) is to see Conservative pundits get on TV and talk about how we need to cut $100Bn worth of discretionary spending to "fix" this (while continuing to spend $1Tn on the military and $1Tn on tax cuts for the top 1% each year). There is no fixing this and even a Republican said you can’t fool all of the people all of the time. THIS HOUSE OF CARDS IS TEETERING FOLKS – PLEASE BE CAREFUL OUT THERE! ‘ Howard Davidowitz on the Economy: "Here Are the Numbers ... WE'RE BROKE!" 11-25-10 The U.S. economy "is a complete disaster," Howard Davidowitz declared here in July, the most recent in a string of dire predictions … "Here are the numbers...we're broke," Davidowitz declares, noting the U.S. government goes $5 billion deeper into debt every day and is facing $1 trillion-plus annual deficits for the next decade. "In other words, we're bankrupt."As with the economy, Davidowitz is unwaveringly consistent in his views on President Obama, calling him "deranged, dysfunctional and discredited."Results of the midterm election show "the people of this country think we are in a catastrophe," he says. "I'm with them."] Some Republicans express concerns about the steep cuts, but some cheer the trims as an important political objective -- meeting a campaign pledge they made last fall to grass-roots activists.

Milbank: Donald trumps CPAC | Gibbs gone (Washington Post) [ That trump is a loser, dressed up and propped up by and to shill for a declining, fallen nation in the most corrupt regions of the country (every fallen nation has such), there is no question …"Over the years I've participated in many battles and have really almost come out very, very victorious every single time," the Donald said. (Except for the bankruptc[ies], that is. [ trump’s never won a battle that wasn’t fixed in advance – jersey general ] ) "I've beaten many people and companies, and I've won many wars," he added. (Though he didn't serve in the military.) "I have fairly [according to mobster rules; ie., bribery, money laundering, etc.] but intelligently [ as any other mob boss … trump is total b*** s***, a fraud, and lightweight … and, despite the façade, quite insecure … trump’s a total mental case … He truly is the ‘poster-boy’ of american decline and part of the problem, not the solution! NEWS FLASH: Direct from Lost Angeles Learning Annex – Presenting mobster t_rump of new yoke, new joyzey, and now caleefornia mob fame with his continuing message for the past several years: buy real estate (and watch the values go down…..riiiiight!).
Bank sues Trump over Chicago tower loan...
Trump casino to miss interest payment...
trump’s fired (from ‘his own company’)

Gunfire Erupts Inside trump Taj Mahal Casino, 1 Dead - Second Such Incident In A Year At N.J. Mainstay Ends With Employee Killed – What else would you you expect from a mobster’s casino in mob-infested jersey!

Trump luxury resort folds, leaving buyers defrauded…litigation has commenced…send for sister maryanne, the corrupt federal judge to preside, coverup, etc., she’s in n.y./n.j./pa 3rd circuit ct appeals, understands drug money laundering/fraud and handles her own motions to recuse her and like mobster trump should be in jail ... (see RICO Case)

] earned many billions of dollars [ at whose expense ], which in a sense was both a scorecard and acknowledgment of my abilities [ to fool most of the people, all of the time. ] ."

Egypt's popular uprising triumphs In 18 days, a revolution topples 30-year regime Hosni Mubarak becomes the second Arab leader in a month to succumb to his people's potent thirst for freedom. (Washington Post) [ That 82 year old, 30 year Egyptian potentate, Pharhosni Mubarak was done was never in question. What comes next is another matter entirely:

Drudgereport: IMF CALLS FOR ALTERNATIVE TO $$ AS WORLD'S RESERVE
MILITARY TAKES COMMAND
'Egypt is Free,' crowds chant...
WIRE: Military coup was behind Mubarak's exit...
Military calls for normal business activity to resume...

DAY 18: Mubarak and family flee Cairo for Sharm el-Sheikh...
Swiss freeze assets...
Obama learns of resignation watching TV...
Crisis Puts White House in Disarray...
Director of National Intelligence: Muslim Brotherhood 'Largely Secular,' 'Has Eschewed Violence'...
'Weakness' in USA...
Ahmadinejad: Egyptian protests herald new Mideast...
AL-JAZEERA LIVE FEED...
FRANCE 24 LIVE FEED...
Mubarak Hangs Tough...

VP Urges Protestors to Ignore Media, and Go Home...
AL-JAZEERA LIVE FEED...
CIA Panetta Confused: Said Strong likelihood Mubarak would 'step down tonight'...
March to palace being organized...
REUTERS LIVE...
ElBaradei warns Egypt will 'explode'....
Egypt's govt on the brink..
FLASH CRASH: APPLE stock loses $10 billion in four minutes...

Jobs' Health Rumor?
Global Stock Exchanges Headed for Major Consolidation...
Kyl becomes fifth senator to step aside...
Fed Governor Resigns; Bernanke Adviser Questioned Stimulus...

NBC: Intelligence officials 'scrambling to try to determine exactly what this all means'...
TRUMP DRAWS CHEERS, BOOS AT CONSERVATIVE CONFERENCE...

PONDERING PRESIDENTIAL RUN... [Don’t make me laugh! … Donald T_rump Would Impose 25% Tax on China Imports if President [ trump also said america’s become the laughingstock of the world … true enough … and trump the biggest joke … Indeed, that trump even posits the possibility of a run when he should be in jail is a testament to just how big a laughingstock pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt america’s become! [ If he was mobster in chief, mobster and scoundrel trump wraps himself in populist american flag and offers up an (too little too late – typical lightweight) implausible solution to keep ‘the juice’ flowing though he’d already be in jail in a rational, non-declining nation with meaningful laws. All China has to do is dump (and not prospectively buy) their ever more and declining in value day-by-day (from dollar debasement policies) u.s. paper / bonds and overnight and the u.s. economy consequently thereby collapse. [ When you come right down to it, this has been america’s most significant export. Indeed, this irrevocable structural shift, hailed by cia men hw bush and clinton (clinton couldn’t have survived with them) by way of NAFTA as the greatest thing since sliced bread was indeed in no uncertain terms condemned and warned against by Perot, a man of honor who, unlike his opponents, could not be bought, which is the reason, in pervasively corrupt america, he could never have been elected. Interestingly, you may have noticed the good (but not great, other than the spotlight on pervasive bribery including judges, police, politicians, etc., being far too light) the film ‘The Untouchables’ getting a wide re-airing of late, purporting to be a significant part of american folklore / history / culture. However, the reality is that in america, and certainly today, the real story with impact is that of ‘The Touchables’. The reality is that Elliot Ness died a broken man; bankrupt, unable to even win election to the mayoralty of his then current hometown. He was incorruptible; and hence, in the real america, unelectable at the least if not also all but unemployable (he and his are among those few genetic anomalies in america as I’ve previously alluded to. How far america has fallen from even false perception! Pervasively corrupt, meaningfully lawless america can’t even fake it anymore. See, for example, http://albertpeia.com/CIAAgentAffidavit1.jpg http://albertpeia.com/FBIAgentAffidavit11.jpg , and of course, corrupt legal / judicial processes, etc., Defacto bankrupt, fraudulent america also spends more on offensive (defensive a misnomer / propaganda) military spending than all the nations of the world combined, and by a large margin at that. Do you see a pattern emerging here [ I unfortunately only belatedly did, and the feds, fed employees, cia, all 3 branches of the u.s. government, etc., are included in this evolved american trait of inherent criminality in the most nefarious sense … The pervasively corrupt american illegal system … corrupt u.s. courts / (lawyers) / judges: Their lifetime plush appointments should be abolished, which corrupt entities are unheard of in productive societies as China, Japan, etc.. Time to abolish these drags on society and eliminate their lifetime stipends and costly bureaucracies. Rules of law mean nothing to these typically corrupt americans. Most, including sam alito of the u.s. supreme court, concerning drug money laundering and obstruction of justice in the 3rd circuit ( also maryanne trump barry who covered-up drug money laundering through her brother’s casinos in a civil RICO case) should have gone to or belong in jail. Contrary to popular belief, they do it for the money, personal money, big, cash, untraceable money. The fog of war is great for such things (360 tons $100 bills flown into Iraq and missing, etc.).

[ http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm ]. america’s just a fraudulent and failed defacto bankrupt nation. ] “I would announce, without equivocation, a 25% tax increase on anything purchased from China.” ]
CHENEY HECKLED... 'DRAFTDOGER!' 'WHERE'S BIN LADEN?' ]



Mubarak Steps Down as President, Army Takes Over ABC News | Egypt’s embattled President Hosni Mubarak abruptly stepped down as president, ending his 30-year America’s Strategic Repression of the ‘Arab Awakening’ A popular backlash against American-supported dictatorships and repressive regimes has been anticipated for a number of years, with arch-hawk geopolitical strategist Zbigniew Brzezinski articulating a broad conception of a ‘Global Political Awakening’ taking place, in which the masses of the world (predominantly the educated, exploited and impoverished youth of the ‘Third World’) have become acutely aware of their subjugation, inequality, exploitation and oppression.



Bad News and Higher Prices - Bullish Wall of Worry or Reason to Worry? [Definitely reason to worry; this up, up and away, valuation be damned preceded the last crash and the crash before that! ], On Friday February 11, 2011 ‘If it's too obvious, it's obviously wrong. More often than not, this proverbial Wall Street adage has the last laugh. What's the prevailing consent on Wall Street? What's suspiciously obvious today?

- The Fed is here to help. As long as there's QE2 (or QE3, 4, etc,) prices will go up.

- January was positive. As January goes, so goes the year.

- This is the third year of the Presidential Election Year Cycle. There hasn't been a negative third year since 1939.

- There's no catalyst to send stocks higher.

While Wall Street analysts are trying to one up each other's positive forecasts, the Fear Index, VIX (Chicago Options: ^VIX) has fallen to a 3 year low. The last time the VIX was at a similar level was in April 2010, just before a literally fear-inspiring 17% correction and the May 'Flash Crash' (see chart below).The ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter didn't subscribe to the prevailing optimism in April 2010 and warned that: 'The message conveyed by the composite bullishness is unmistakably bearish. The pieces are in place for a major decline.'Does that mean that the bottom will fall out again within a matter of days? Not necessarily, but now is certainly not the time to be married to your holdings. Tight sell stops are warranted because any minor correction could turn into a large one. Why?

New Bull Market, or Mother of all Bear Market Rallies?

The devil's in the long-term trend. If we are in a new bull market, any dip would present a buying opportunity. If we are in the mother of all bear market rallies, every rally is a trap and represents a selling opportunity.How can one determine whether we are in a new bull market, or a bear market rally? [chart] It's said that bull markets climb a wall of worry. No doubt there was extreme pessimism surrounding the March 2009 lows. That's one of the reasons the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter sent out a strong buy signal on March 2, 2009.But pessimism at the bottom doesn't equal a wall of worry. In fact, following the initial bout of disbelief, investors embraced the rally rather quickly. In late 2009, sentiment readings became frothy, in January 2010 they rivaled 2007 extremes (stocks fell 9%), and in April 2010 they exceeded 2007 extremes (stocks fell 17%).About two thirds of the rally from the 2009 lows was accompanied by optimism. This is no wall of worry.

Glass Half Full Outlook

Think about it, even the truly big problems - unemployment and falling real estate (NYSEArca: IYR - News) prices - were sugar coated from the very beginning. The unemployment problem was charmingly called 'jobless recovery' and falling real estate prices were simply ignored.The Case-Shiller home price index is down four months in a row, but nobody is bothered. A few days ago, MarketWatch ran an article: '10 reasons to be bullish on housing.'Courtesy of the continuing real estate conundrum, the FDIC closed 157 banks in 2010, and 14 thus far in 2011. According to a Wall Street Journal article, the top 10 U.S. owned banks (NYSEArca: KBE - News) had $13.8 billion in unrealized losses.Those are not reflected in earnings numbers as long as financial institutions (NYSEArca: XLF - News) believe the investment will later rebound. Guess what? Banks are pretty darn sure prices will reclaim their 2006 all-time highs.In addition to the $13.8 billion in unrealized losses, the top 10 U.S. banks owned $360.7 billion in illiquid, hard to value assets (called level 3 assets). While paper earnings appear solid, it appears as if banks are hiding skeletons in their closets. But who cares, stocks (NYSEArca: VTI - News) are up.

Anomaly Explained

Ben Bernanke has openly admitted that asset inflation, or the wealth effect from rising stock prices, is the objective of QE2. Obviously, the money flow from the Federal Reserve over banks into the stock market has been the driving force behind this monster rally.Much of the Fed money has been funneled into commodities. Since QE2, net speculative positions in wheat and copper have doubled, oil soared 115%, soybeans 40% and corn 15%. Rising commodity prices (NYSEArca: DBC - News) are putting the squeeze on lower income Americans and will eventually lower profit margins for the materials sector (NYSEArca: XLB - News).It's quite likely that this ripple effect will spill over into the retail (NYSEArca: XRT - News), technology (NYSEArca: XLK - News), and consumer discretionary sector (NYSEArca: XLY - News). From there it's just a matter of time until it hits the broader Dow (DJI: ^DJI), S&P (SNP: ^GSPC) and Nasdaq (Nasdaq: ^IXIC).Contrary to its objective, QE2 has also sent interest rates soaring. Higher interest rates tend to encourage the money to flow from equities into bonds. Higher interest rates put pressure on bond (NYSEArca: AGG - News) and stock prices alike.

Early Detection

The trend is your friend, but the trend is a fair-weather friend and can turn at any given time. The trend doesn't announce its intention to change direction. It switches back and worth as it pleases without your permission.Courtesy of your friend the trend, everybody is a genius in a bull market ... and a nave misguided trend follower when prices drop without prior notice.There is no foolproof way to find out when the market is about to change directions. There are, however, ways to put the odds in your favor.Watching support levels has proven a very effective way. A few months ago 1,170 was a crucial support level highlighted by the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter. The S&P tested this level no less than five times, but never broker below it and rallied over 10% since.Just recently, 1,270 was such a support level. The S&P tested it twice before moving into the 1,320 range. The market is dynamic and can change swiftly; therefore, it's the market that dictates support levels, not us. We just identify and use them.At the current juncture, support levels are vital because they define the trend. As long as support remains intact, so does the rally. Once support is broken, watch out…’

Stock Market Resiliency Being Put to the Test Minyanville Suttmeier, chief market strategist at ValuEngine.com.’The test of resiliency for stocks comes from the dynamics for the US capital markets, both fundamentally and technically. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note has held my annual value level at 3.791, and these high yields are a drag on equity valuations. Comex gold has been volatile but seems to find a home at my annual pivot at $1356.5. Nymex crude oil trades on both sides of my semiannual pivot at $87.52. In this environment US stocks have become overvalued fundamentally and overbought technically. Stocks have been trading under a ValuEngine Valuation Warning for the past three days as the major averages push the envelope of new multi-year highs.I still see the warning flags flying from Egypt, Europe, and the emerging markets which are laggards as we approach mid-February. While the Dow Industrial Average is up 5.6% year to date the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index Fund (EEM) is down 5.4%, and the iShares FTSE China 25 Index Fund (FXI) is down 4.0% and is below both its 50-day simple moving average at $43.28 and its 200-day simple moving average at $42.13. These types of negative divergences suggest to me that US stocks are vulnerable once their Fed-induced bubbles pop.Thursday’s equity closes were above all of this week’s pivots at 12,142 Dow Industrial Average, 1316.2 S&P 500, 2770 Nasdaq, 5077 Dow Transports, and 800.13 Russell 2000. The S&P 500 tested and held its weekly pivot at 1316.2. The Dow Transport Average outperformed on Thursday and tested its annual pivot at 5179.

  • The Dow Industrial Average (12,229) -- My monthly value level is 11,759 with daily and annual risky levels at 12,404 and 13,890.
  • The S&P 500 (1321.9) -- My quarterly value level is 1262.5 with today’s risky level at 1344.5.
  • The NASDAQ (2790) -- My monthly value level is 2611 with daily and quarterly risky levels at 2850 and 2853.
  • Dow Transports (5168) -- My monthly value level is 4962 with daily and annual pivots at 5162 and 5179. Transports lag its January 18 high at 5256.80.
  • The Russell 2000 (812.70) -- My annual and quarterly value levels are 784.16 and 765.50 with a daily risky level at 829.97.


We are trading under a ValuEngine Valuation Warning -- 16 of 16 sectors overvalued with only 33.15% of all stocks undervalued on Wednesday, below the 35% threshold by this measure. This also means that 66.86% of all stocks are overvalued. Why does Wall Street think stocks are cheap?

The US Treasury 10-Year Yield
-- (3.702) My annual value level is 3.791 with a weekly risky level at 3.525.
Comex Gold -- ($1361.7) My quarterly and annual pivots are $1331.3 and $1356.5 with daily, monthly, quarterly, and semiannual risky levels are $1375.2, $1412.4, $1441.7, and $1452.6.
Nymex Crude Oil – ($87.14) My semiannual pivot at $87.52 has become a magnet with a monthly pivot at $91.83.
The Euro -- (1.3593) My quarterly value level is 1.3227 with my monthly risky level at 1.4225.

Foreclosure Lull as Repossessions Rise Again
Foreclosure paperwork issues have slowed the home foreclosure process over the past two months, but as this dilemma works its way to a solution, foreclosures will rise again, as will bank auctions of OREO (Other Real Estate Owned). As a result, more homeowners who are missing mortgage payments are staying in their homes longer, adding to the backlog of bad loans. Meanwhile, banks are picking up the pace in repossessions taking back 78,133 properties in January according to RealtyTrac. This is up 12% from December. Banks took back more than a million homes in 2010, and about five million borrowers are at least two months behind on mortgage payments.
The housing problems remain the same: high unemployment, a weak housing market, falling home prices, and tighter lending standards.’

Debunking the 'Debunking Myths of U.S. Collapse' Post Ridder [ Stated another way, the collapse of the (dis)united states is at hand. Now, let me state, that doesn’t mean america will disappear from the face of the earth, but the reality truly is ‘death from a thousand cuts’. It’s not just China’s rise, but america’s decline and fall with the concomitant relative rise of other nations, regions. Quite simply, and historically factual reality has proven, nation-states cannot and have not survived the multitude of negative, destructive, and self-destructive things america has done and prosper as a leading nation. From perpetual war, to pervasive corruption, fraud, criminality across all stratum including institutions, government of american society, to what I believe as well to be an evolved genetic bias of inherent criminality/mental illness which is ill-adapted to the strictures of a more enlightened 21st Century by way of near instantaneously available information, with truth and factual reality being america’s greatest enemy. In support of the foregoing I will reiterate reasons, infra.] ‘This is a short response to another post I recently read, "Debunking Myths of U.S. Collapse," which was a follow up to the article "The End of America? Not Quite." This post had various and numerous flaws, in my opinion, which I thought had to be addressed. I have unfortunately recently undergone shoulder surgery, so I will not be able to provide as comprehensive response as I might hope; but I will provide some basic arguments and thoughts that rebut or refute the statements given in the "Debunking" post. First, under the heading "Printing Money Does Not Create Wealth," in which the author attempts to refute this statement, there is this line of reasoning:

"How will the 'wasted' money get into the hands of the wealth creators? If the new ear pickers go into their communities and spend it at local businesses, the printed money goes from useless employees, into the accounts of productive businesses (of course the producers get less after layers of tax bites). So the act of spending printed dollars itself will get those dollars into the hands of businesses who are able to create wealth."

Quickly, I will point to Japan, which has tried this over 20 years and seems not to have created much wealth as measured by the Japanese stock market. On the face of it this is a Keynesian solution and one source to explain the Keynesian fallacies, and provide logic for its arguments, is the book, "The Failure of the New Economics: An Analysis of the Keynesian Fallacies."

Secondly, we come across this statement:

You will realize Dick Cheney got it right when he said 'Deficits don't matter,' and will rest well knowing the US will not default through non-payment, nor hyper-inflation."

The author Murray Rothbard in the book, "Making Economic Sense," rebuts this thinking where he writes:

"Myth 1: Deficits are the cause of inflation; deficits have nothing to do with inflation."

"In recent decades we always have had federal deficits. The invariable response of the party out of power, whichever it may be, is to denounce those deficits as being the cause of perpetual inflation. And the invariable response of whatever party is in power has been to claim that deficits have nothing to do with inflation. Both opposing statements are myths.

"Deficits mean that the federal government is spending more than it is taking in in taxes. Those deficits can be financed in two ways. If they are financed by selling Treasury bonds to the public, then the deficits are not inflationary. No new money is created; people and institutions simply draw down their bank deposits to pay for the bonds, and the Treasury spends that money. Money has simply been transferred from the public to the Treasury, and then the money is spent on other members of the public.

"On the other hand, the deficit may be financed by selling bonds to the banking system. If that occurs, the banks create new money by creating new bank deposits and using them to buy the bonds. The new money, in the form of bank deposits, is then spent by the Treasury, and thereby enters permanently into the spending stream of the economy, raising prices and causing inflation. By a complex process, the Federal Reserve enables the banks to create the new money by generating bank reserves of one-tenth that amount. Thus, if banks are to buy $100 billion of new bonds to finance the deficit, the Fed buys approximately $10 billion of old Treasury bonds. This purchase increases bank reserves by $10 billion, allowing the banks to pyramid the creation of new bank deposits or money by ten times that amount. In short, the government and the banking system it controls in effect "print" new money to pay for the federal deficit.

"Thus, deficits are inflationary to the extent that they are financed by the banking system; they are not inflationary to the extent they are underwritten by the public."

Third, the author is just plain wrong mathematical analysis under the heading, "Printing Money Will Cause the U.S. Dollar to Lose Reserve-Currency Status," the author writes:

"Granted, China is growing at roughly 10% a year, and we are only growing at 3%. I get that. Let's do the math though and see if we should worry. If China is a $6 trillion economy, growing at 10%, they grow by $600 billion a year. If we are a $14 trillion economy growing at 3%, we grow by $420 billion a year. In this close to reality example, China is closing the gap at $180 billion a year. At this rate - it will take China 44 years to even match the US in GDP. Can they continue to grow at 10% a year, while their largest customer grows at 3% for 44 straight year? We are a far cry from no longer being the largest economy. The biggest economy in the world should be blessed with the reserve currency."

I took $14 trillion and grew it at a 3% rate in a spreadsheet and then took $6 trillion in a spreadsheet and grew it at 10% a year. One will find that if the 3% and 10% growth rates hold then in only 13 years (from a base year of zero) the Chinese economy would surpass the U.S. economy. This is much lower than 44 years, actually less than 30% of the time! It appears the author forgot to compound the growth rates but just used the difference in the first year to compute a timeline. Finally, the OECD showed that the EU-27 had a larger economy than the U.S. in 2009.

Fourth, there is this paragraph headline, "If Money Printing is Good, Then Just Print Enough To Give Everyone $1 Million," and then tries to protect the money printing position, which starts as follows:

"If printing is not a big deal, then why not just print away? The doom and gloomers jump to the conclusion that if I think printing won't cause the collapse of America, it must be a good thing. So why not seek more of that good thing?"

The author then rambles on about how he is not calling for everyone to get a huge lump sum and therefore his money printing position is okay. Left unanswered is what is the "right" amount of money to print and how exactly does it get distributed. Rothbard provides a more thoughtful analysis of this type of situation, again, in his book, "The Mystery of Banking," where he introduces the Angel Gabriel analogy:

"To show why an increase in the money supply confers no social benefits, let us picture to ourselves what I call the "Angel Gabriel" model. The Angel Gabriel is a benevolent spirit who wishes only the best for mankind, but unfortunately knows nothing about economics. He hears mankind constantly complaining about a lack of money, so he decides to intervene and do something about it. And so overnight, while all of us are sleeping, the Angel Gabriel descends and magically doubles everyone's stock of money. In the morning, when we all wake up, we find that the amount of money we had in our wallets, purses, safes, and bank accounts has doubled.

"What will be the reaction? Everyone knows it will be instant hoopla and joyous bewilderment. Every person will consider that he is now twice as well off, since his money stock has doubled. In terms of our Figure 3.4, everyone's cash balance, and therefore total M, has doubled to $200 billion. Everyone rushes out to spend their new surplus cash balances. But, as they rush to spend the money, all that happens is that demand curves for all goods and services rise. Society is no better off than before, since real resources, labor, capital, goods, natural resources, productivity, have not changed at all. And so prices will, overall, approximately double, and people will find that they are not really any better off than they were before. Their cash balances have doubled, but so have prices, and so their purchasing power remains the same. Because he knew no economics, the Angel Gabriel's gift to mankind has turned to ashes.

"But let us note something important for our later analysis of the real world processes of inflation and monetary expansion. It is not true that no one is better off from the Angel Gabriel's doubling of the supply of money. Those lucky folks who rushed out the next morning, just as the stores were opening, managed to spend their increased cash before prices had a chance to rise; they certainly benefited. Those people, on the other hand, who decided to wait a few days or weeks before they spent their money, lost by the deal, for they found that their buying prices rose before they had the chance to spend the increased amounts of money. In short, society did not gain overall, but the early spenders benefited at the expense of the late spenders. The profligate gained at the expense of the cautious and thrifty: another joke at the expense of the good Angel." (Pages 45-46)

Fifth, it appears that the author has reintroduced the fallacy of the labor theory of value when he states:

"The U.S. Dollar Has Lost 96% of its Purchasing Power - Thus Printing Makes Us Poorer. This argument only covers one side of the story. While each individual dollar buys less goods, the argument is incomplete. To bust this myth, we just need to look at how much time it requires to pay for those goods. Instead of looking at how many dollars it takes to buy a candy bar today compared to 30 years ago, I would challenge you to instead value the candy bar in hours of labor to obtain it."

I am almost at a loss as how to respond to the labor theory of value appearing to pop up again. I think one can go to any of today’s basic economic textbooks and have that fallacy addressed. I only hope the author was intending to discuss real wages and unfortunately used poor wording that accidently came out as in favor for the labor theory of value.

Finally, the author writes:

"I want the reader to know though, you can rest confident knowing that tonight the U.S. will not collapse by the time you wake up in the morning. Sleep well because the U.S. Dollar will not be worthless when you wake up ... Fear for the collapse of America is unwarranted and rooted in misunderstanding of the monetary system in which we live under today. We are not Greece. Or Weimar. Or Zimbabwe."

I would caution the reader that author’s writing has numerous fallacies and mathematical inaccuracies. A need for clearer and more thoughtful thinking is needed to analyze the monetary and fiscal policies of Greece, Weimar, and Zimbabwe and compare them to the U.S. I do recall a while ago that the central bank head of Zimbabwe said his bank was just doing the same thing the FED was. This is not the type of neighborhood I would like to take even a short visit to.’

This is that unmentionable reality as I alluded to earlier on close scrutiny of the data, ‘that stock prices have been manipulated to the upside beyond any and all rational basis‘ and as I previously wrote: Perception vs. Reality: Four Reasons to Remain Cautious on U.S. Equities [ Hey, Abbott … That’s Lou Costello calling him from the other side … Wake up! … Just kidding … but I’m not kidding when I say that contrary to Abbott’s view, infra, if you’re not a successful market timer you should rethink your position as an equity investor. Moreover, in contradistinction to Mr. Abbott’s implication, if you’re not a successful speculator (there are very few), you should rethink your position as a short seller: reason…, you could be wiped out, lose more than your principal, forced to cover (that’s why the same is considered a contrary market indicator, particularly in these manipulated, contrived markets). When I did my MBA thesis (1977, NYU, GBA, Eve.Prog., Finance), a review of the data revealed even then (and much more so now with computer programmed market manipulation) that the market remained biased / propped up (artificially, especially now with computerized manipulation) to the upside for far longer periods of time than for the downside which meant that dollar-cost averaging (through regular, periodic investment, for example), meant you were accumulating shares at higher prices generally for longer periods of time skewing the average cost to the upside (dollar-cost-averaging in declining markets was ok if analysis / forecast saw resurgence based on fundamentals - now absent – which is timing, as even senile wall street / gov’t shill Buffet would attest, that ‘greedy when others are fearful thing’). Abbott discusses perception which is the psychological factor involved in security evaluation / analysis; but investors need not and should become nuts themselves, particularly when as now, the inmates are running the asylum. ] Abbott ‘Perception determines short-term market movements. The difference between perception and reality determines the direction of major market trends. Though I generally try to avoid making macro prognostications, I believe bottom-up analysis can be informative about the current level of stock prices. I want to share what my recent work tells me about where stocks are (and where they might be headed). I will outline some various nuggets of collective wisdom that are taken for granted right now by stock bulls, and I will attempt to demonstrate how reality is likely to differ from these perceptions.

First, a disclaimer. This is not a market timing call. At all times, I stay away from market timing predictions. I think that's a loser's game in the long run. Even if I'm correct about the discrepancies between the following perceptions and realities, there's no saying when people will change their minds or shift their focuses. That said, let's dive in.

Perception vs. Reality #1
Perception: Low Interest Rates, Questionable Bond Outlook Means Stocks are Attractive
Reality: Interest Rates Are Being Artificially and Deliberately Manipulated

It's no secret that the Federal Reserve's low interest rate policy and quantitative easing efforts have held interest rates very low for very long. However, when people talk about stock market implications of bond yields, they rarely mention the fact that bond yields are artificially low. In an unmanipulated market, bond prices and stock valuations should be related, but I regard that connection as highly dubious right now. Investors who say that stocks deserve higher multiples (lower earnings yields) because bond yields are so low may well be setting themselves up for disappointing returns/frustrating losses when bond prices normalize. Again, this isn't a market timing call, and yields may remain low for quite some time. But, eventually this discrepancy will correct itself, and stock performance is likely to suffer at that time.

Perception vs. Reality #2
Perception: Earnings Growth Has Been Strong and Will Remain That Way
Reality: Top-Line Growth Will Have to Pick Up; Cost-Cutting has Run Its Course

Earnings growth has certainly been robust, but much of the strength has come from companies running lean cost structures and wringing as much efficiency as possible out of their employees and their assets. Though the recession has ended, the economy is not yet healthy enough to fuel strong sales growth. Companies can only boost profits by cutting costs and increasing productivity for so long. Therefore, top-line growth will have to play a larger role going forward than it has over the past 4-6 quarters. Whether or not economic growth is strong enough to drive revenue increases is unsure, but the current level of stock prices undoubtedly assumes it is. Any stagnation of the recovery and concomitant sluggish sales will likely hit stock prices.

Perception vs. Reality #3
Perception: European Debt Crisis Drives Short-Term Volatility, but It's Not a Long-Term Concern
Reality: Crisis May Be a Harbinger of What's to Come in the U.S. if States, the Feds Don't Improve Balance Sheets

So far, turmoil in Greece and Ireland has served only as a temporary headwind to U.S. stocks. In keeping with the investment world's increasingly short-term focus, people seem more concerned with what fiscal crises in Europe mean for U.S. stocks over the coming days and months than with what they might mean down the road. I believe that this interpretation misses the mark. Since the U.S. fiscal situtation is generally considered to be stronger than that in many European countries, U.S. federal and municipal debt issuance has been relatively smooth, and interest rates have only risen modestly. If the U.S. doesn't get serious about its fiscal woes, eventually the crisis will arrive on American shores. There's no way of telling when this might happen, but the current level of stock prices seems to imply that it never will.

Here's the problem with that. To fix the federal balance sheet and/or to improve state and municipal balance sheets, legislators will have to raise taxes and/or cut spending. Tax hikes and spending cuts both reduce consumer spending. This hurts growth. There's no way around this. Stocks can certainly continue to rise for some time, but austerity will be bearish if/when it comes. If it doesn't come, we're in for a much bigger crisis some time down the road.

Perception vs. Reality #4
Perception: Everywhere You Look, You See Good Companies at Cheap Prices
Reality: It's Hard to Find Genuine Bargains, but There are Intriguing Short Prospects Everywhere

There is no shortage of stock market commentators who claim that they see bargains everywhere they look. Perhaps I'm not looking in the right places, but I've been having a difficult and increasingly impossible time finding good companies at reasonable prices. I use similar criteria to assess long and short investments, and I find intriguing shorts in lots of sectors right now. This tells me that valuations are stretched. Certainly they can become more so before we get a selloff, but every day that stocks rally, they get more expensive.

I've written on Seeking Alpha about a number of stocks which I regard as expensive (CRM, OPEN, GMCR), and take my word for it: there are plenty more than these whose shares I do not want to own at present levels. A few weeks ago, I also mused about the Facebook-Goldman deal and argued that this valuation is indicative of excessive investor enthusiasm. Bargains are hard to find, and as valuations go up, so does positive sentiment. While this is not a prediction of an impending correction or bear market, it is a message of caution for people who think stocks are cheap right now.

All that said, I always try to consider both sides of any investment issue, and there are some reasons for optimism. Job growth has shown signs of improvement, and some economic data have been increasingly (though not uniformly) positive. The Federal Reserve remains accommodative, and I'm skeptical about whether or not there is political will for austerity. For these reasons, stocks could continue onward and upward. That said, I see too many reasons for caution, and investors are turning a blind eye to these concerns as their complacency rises.’



12 Economic Collapse Scenarios That We Could Potentially See In 2011 What could cause an economic collapse in 2011? Well, unfortunately there are quite a few “nightmare scenarios” that could plunge the entire globe into another massive financial crisis.
The Economic Collapse Jan 20, 2011 ‘What could cause an economic collapse in 2011? Well, unfortunately there are quite a few “nightmare scenarios” that could plunge the entire globe into another massive financial crisis. The United States, Japan and most of the nations in Europe are absolutely drowning in debt. The Federal Reserve continues to play reckless games with the U.S. dollar. The price of oil is skyrocketing and the global price of food just hit a new record high. Food riots are already breaking out all over the world. Meanwhile, the rampant fraud and corruption going on in world financial markets is starting to be exposed and the whole house of cards could come crashing down at any time. Most Americans have no idea that a horrific economic collapse could happen at literally any time. There is no way that all of this debt and all of this financial corruption is sustainable. At some point we are going to reach a moment of “total system failure”.

So will it be soon? Let’s hope not. Let’s certainly hope that it does not happen in 2011. Many of us need more time to prepare. Most of our families and friends need more time to prepare. Once this thing implodes there isn’t going to be an opportunity to have a “do over”. We simply will not be able to put the toothpaste back into the tube again.

So we had all better be getting prepared for hard times. The following are 12 economic collapse scenarios that we could potentially see in 2011….

#1 U.S. debt could become a massive crisis at any moment. China is saying all of the right things at the moment, but many analysts are openly worried about what could happen if China suddenly decides to start dumping all of the U.S. debt that they have accumulated. Right now about the only thing keeping U.S. government finances going is the ability to borrow gigantic amounts of money at extremely low interest rates. If anything upsets that paradigm, it could potentially have enormous consequences for the entire world financial system.

#2 Speaking of threats to the global financial system, it turns out that “quantitative easing 2″ has had the exact opposite effect that Ben Bernanke planned for it to have. Bernanke insisted that the main goal of QE2 was to lower interest rates, but instead all it has done is cause interest rates to go up substantially. If Bernanke this incompetent or is he trying to mess everything up on purpose?

#3 The debt bubble that the entire global economy is based on could burst at any time and throw the whole planet into chaos. According to a new report from the World Economic Forum, the total amount of credit in the world increased from $57 trillion in 2000 to $109 trillion in 2009. The WEF says that now the world is going to need another $100 trillion in credit to support projected “economic growth” over the next decade. So is this how the new “global economy” works? We just keep doubling the total amount of debt every decade?

#4 As the U.S. government and the Federal Reserve continue to pump massive amounts of new dollars into the system, the floor could fall out from underneath the U.S. dollar at any time. The truth is that we are already starting to see inflation really accelerate and everyone pretty much acknowledges that official U.S. governments figures for inflation are an absolute joke. According to one new study, the cost of college tuition has risen 286% over the last 20 years, and the cost of “hospital, nursing-home and adult-day-care services” rose 269% during those same two decades. All of this happened during a period of supposedly “low” inflation. So what are price increases going to look like when we actually have “high” inflation?

#5 One of the primary drivers of global inflation during 2011 could be the price of oil. A large number of economists are now projecting that the price of oil could surge well past $100 dollars a barrel in 2011. If that happens, it is going to put significant pressure on the price of almost everything else in the entire global economy. In fact, as I have explained previously, the higher the price of oil goes, the faster the U.S. economy will decline.

#6 Food inflation is already so bad in some areas of the globe that it is setting off massive food riots in nations such as Tunisia and Algeria. In fact, there have been reports of people setting themselves on fire all over the Middle East as a way to draw attention to how desperate they are. So what is going to happen if global food prices go up another 10 or 20 percent and food riots spread literally all over the globe during 2011?

#7 There are persistent rumors that simply will not go away of massive physical gold and silver shortages. Demand for precious metals has never been higher. So what is going to happen when many investors begin to absolutely insist on physical delivery of their precious metals? What is going to happen when the fact that far, far, far more “paper gold” and “paper silver” has been sold than has ever actually physically existed in the history of the planet starts to come out? What would that do to the price of gold and silver?

#8 The U.S. housing industry could plunge the U.S. economy into another recession at any time. The real estate market is absolutely flooded with homes and virtually nobody is buying. This massive oversupply of homes means that the construction of new homes has fallen off a cliff. In 2010, only 703,000 single family, multi-family and manufactured homes were completed. This was a new record low, and it was down 17% from the previous all-time record which had just been set in 2009.

#9 A combination of extreme weather and disease could make this an absolutely brutal year for U.S. farmers. This winter we have already seen thousands of new cold weather and snowfall records set across the United States. Now there is some very disturbing news emerging out of Florida of an “incurable bacteria” that is ravaging citrus crops all over Florida. Is there a reason why so many bad things are happening all of a sudden?

#10 The municipal bond crisis could go “supernova” at any time. Already, investors are bailing out of bonds at a frightening pace. State and local government debt is now sitting at an all-time high of 22 percent of U.S. GDP. According to Meredith Whitney, the municipal bond crisis that we are facing is a gigantic threat to our financial system….

“It has tentacles as wide as anything I’ve seen. I think next to housing this is the single most important issue in the United States and certainly the largest threat to the U.S. economy.”

Former Los Angeles mayor Richard Riordan is convinced that things are so bad that literally 90% of our states and cities could go bankrupt over the next five years….

#11 Of course on top of everything else, the quadrillion dollar derivatives bubble could burst at any time. Right now we are watching the greatest financial casino in the history of the globe spin around and around and around and everyone is hoping that at some point it doesn’t stop. Today, most money on Wall Street is not made by investing in good business ideas. Rather, most money on Wall Street is now made by making the best bets. Unfortunately, at some point the casino is going to come crashing down and the game will be over.

#12 The biggest wildcard of all is war. The Korean peninsula came closer to war in 2010 than it had in decades. The Middle East could literally explode at any time. We live in a world where a single weapon can take out an entire city in an instant. All it would take is a mid-size war or a couple of weapons of mass destruction to throw the entire global economy into absolute turmoil.

Once again, let us hope that none of these economic collapse scenarios happens in 2011.

However, we have got to realize that we can’t keep dodging these bullets forever.

As bad as 2010 was, the truth is that it went about as good as any of us could have hoped. Things are still pretty stable and times are still pretty good right now.

But instead of using these times to “party”, we should be using them to prepare.

A really, really vicious economic storm is coming and it is going to be a complete and total nightmare. Get ready, hold on tight, and say your prayers.’



Poor Recovery: The Problem Is Institutional [ Well it’s true that the problem is institutional as in pervasively corrupt, incompetent, nonproductive in real terms relative to their cost / damage (still no pros on the wall street fraud which is ongoing in terms of the last crisis, the worthless paper marked to anything, and the current bubble fraud that’s high-frequency computerized churn-and-earn high-frequency commissioned / sold into, 360 tons of $100 bills disappear in Iraq, etc.. What do they get paid for?) ( Peter Schiff: Washington a parasite to economy US foreclosures hit record highs in 2010, but that may not be the worst of it. 2011 may be even worse. Meanwhile, JP Morgan Chase exceeded market expectations, announcing a 47% rise in quarterly profits and released details on a $28.1 billion pay and bonus pool. Peter Schiff, the President of Euro Pacific Capital said Washington and Wall Street are becoming one force and are sucking the underlying American dry like a parasite’.); but the problem is structural, as in transfer of jobs, industries, etc. (among the sources of the huge over-compensation to wall street, company executives), never to return in any meaningful sense; and as in the defacto bankruptcy of the nation with insurmountable record debt / deficits or stated another way, broke. Unlike in the past, once beyond the propaganda, rhetoric, and smoke and mirrors / obfuscation, there is no prospective way for america to grow its way out, nor are there funds in real money with which to do it. Quite simply, america’s broke / bankrupt in every which way. ] Loundsbury ‘Harold Meyerson, Op Ed Columnist at The Washington Post, has hit the nail right on the head, in the opinion of GEI. Meyerson says the debate about whether the recession and poor recovery is a cyclical problem or a structural problem is misguided. He says the problem is institutional - - - and is he ever right!

In a column last week, Myerson points out that the devastation of The Great Recession has fallen disproportionately on the blue collar population, those without a college degree. And he traces the rolling over of median family income in this century, not just in the downturn, but since the turn of the century. Even at the peak, in 2007, median family income was less than in 2000.

What Meyerson doesn't point out is that average incomes have faired better in the 21st century and in all of the past 50 years. In fact, average family income has risen more than 2.5 times as much and median income over the last 30 years. Why is this important? Because the more there is a fat tail of ever higher incomes for a few, the greater the difference between average and median income becomes.

Myerson says:

The great sociologist William Julius Wilson has long argued that the key to the unraveling of the lives of the African American poor was the decline in the number of "marriageable males" as work disappeared from the inner city. Much the same could now be said of working-class whites in neighborhoods that may not look like the ghettos of Cleveland or Detroit but in which productive economic activity is increasingly hard to find.

This grim new reality has yet to inform our debate over how to come back from this mega-recession. Those who believe our downturn is cyclical argue that job-creating public spending can restore us to prosperity, while those who believe it's structural - that we have too many carpenters, say, and not enough nurses - believe that we should leave things be while American workers acquire new skills and enter different lines of work. But there's a third way to look at the recession: that it's institutional, that it's the consequence of the decisions by leading banks and corporations to stop investing in the job-creating enterprises that were the key to broadly shared prosperity.

Since Meyerson has chosen income disparity as a cornerstone of his argument, let's look at how incomes have grown over the last 50 years. These are shown in the following graph, not adjusted for inflation.

click to enlarge images [chart]

Real median income and average income seem to grow similarly in the 1950s and 1960s, the growth of average income starts to pull away in the mid-1960s and appears to continue to gain gound for the the next 40+ years. The more average income deviates from median income the more money is found in the high income tail on the distribution curve. This is often called a "fat tail", which is very appropriate in this discussion because that is where the fat cats are. The fat tail has not gotten so because ten times as many people equaled the incomes of the former fat cats, but more because a few fat cats have received 10 times the income. This is exemplified by the often quoted statistic that average CEO salaries were 40x average worker pay 50 years ago and today are more like 400x.

The change income distribution that seems to be appearing in the above graph becomes more apparent in the following graph where real income gains are shown for the last six decades starting with the ten years from 1949 - 1959 (the 1950s) and ending with 1999 - 2009 (the 2000s). [chart]

The 1950s and 60s were real boom years. Starting with the 1970s a lower level of income growth was established, but even that lower level could not be maintained in the 2000s.

After the 1950s every decade has seen average real income grow more than the median. The fat tail has gotten fatter over the past half century in every decade, without exception. Yes the average did decline in the 2000s, but the median declined 76% more!

The most dramatic pattern of change is evident when the data is divided into two halves: 1949 to 1979 and 1979 - 2009. This is done in the following graph: [chart]

For thirty years after World War II the wealth of the country increased in a balanced manner. The average income containing the greater contribution from the top earners of the day, grew at a rate very similar to the income growth of the broader population, represented by the median.

Yes there were "fat cats" and they had significantly larger incomes than the bulk of the population. And these top incomes grew over those three decades, but at almost the same rate as the majority of the populace.

Then something happened. From 1979-2009 it appears that the American pie suddenly got smaller. In the later three decades the real median income growth was less than 10% of the rate seen from 1949 to 1979. And as the pie got smaller, the fat cats took a much larger share. The average income grew at a rate 254% that of the median income. You might say that, as the cow gave less milk, the top of the economic ladder skimmed more and more cream off the top.

Meyerson identifies the force majuere to be corporate America:

Our multinational companies still invest, of course - just not at home. A study by the Business Roundtable and the U.S. Council Foundation found that the share of the profits of U.S.-based multinationals that came from their foreign affiliates had increased from 17 percent in 1977 and 27 percent in 1994 to 48.6 percent in 2006. As the companies' revenue from abroad has increased, their dependence on American consumers has diminished. The equilibrium among production, wages and purchasing power - the equilibrium that Henry Ford famously recognized when he upped his workers' pay to an unheard-of $5 a day in 1913 so they could afford to buy the cars they made, the equilibrium that became the model for 20th-century American capitalism - has been shattered. Making and selling their goods abroad, U.S. multinationals can slash their workforces and reduce their wages at home while retaining their revenue and increasing their profits. And that's exactly what they've done.

Meyerson doesn't get into some of the other areas that might be brought to bear on the current condition of the American economy:

  • He doesn't address the fact that the U.S. ranks below some third world countries in education.
  • He doesn't discuss the increasing burden of health care, both because costs have been running out of control and because an ever increasing portion of the population is kept from making the contribution they might have otherwise because of poor health.
  • He doesn't discuss the capture of much potential domestic capital by financial engineers who find it much easier to get rich in a rigged casino than to make money the old fashioned way.

Part of the problem is that Americans have fallen into the way of the easiest path, where, either by credit card or by making quick trades, the desires of the moment are satisfied with no seemingly current cost.

It seems that few want to think about the needs of tomorrow. This is true starting with the masses who kiss off the idea of working hard in school to prepare for what they will need 20 years down the road. This is also true of the "capitalist" who finds that skimming a few percent off each of many deals a year to get quick, large quarterly returns is much easier than investing and building something that will will make much larger returns extending over decades and producing things of real economic utility.

There are a number of things that Meyerson does not address, but if you want to hit one nail at a time, I think he has picked the baddest nail in the plank. He finishes his column thusly:

Our economic woes, then, are not simply cyclical or structural. They are also - chiefly - institutional, the consequence of U.S. corporate behavior that has plunged us into a downward cycle of underinvestment, underemployment and under-consumption. Our solutions must be similarly institutional, requiring, for starters, the seating of public and worker representatives on corporate boards. Short of that, there will be no real prospects for reversing America's downward mobility.

If we were to address all the other issues I mentioned previously and did not address the institutional problem Meterson has identified, we would not ultimately solve our economic puzzle.’

20 Shocking New Economic Records That Were Set In 2010 2010 was quite a year, wasn’t it? 2010 will be remembered for a lot of things, but for those living in the United States, one of the main things that last year will be remembered for is economic decline…The Economic Collapse Jan 14, 2011 ‘2010 was quite a year, wasn’t it? 2010 will be remembered for a lot of things, but for those living in the United States, one of the main things that last year will be remembered for is economic decline. The number of foreclosure filings set a new record, the number of home repossessions set a new record, the number of bankruptcies went up again, the number of Americans that became so discouraged that they simply quit looking for work reached a new all-time high and the number of Americans on food stamps kept setting a brand new record every single month. Meanwhile, U.S. government debt reached record highs, state government debt reached record highs and local government debt reached record highs. What a mess! In fact, even many of the “good” economic records that were set during 2010 were indications of underlying economic weakness. For example, the price of gold set an all-time record during 2010, but one of the primary reasons for the increase in the price of gold was that the U.S. dollar was rapidly losing value. Most Americans had been hoping that 2010 would be the beginning of better times, but unfortunately economic conditions just kept getting worse.

So will things improve in 2011? That would be nice, but at this point there are not a whole lot of reasons to be optimistic about the economy. The truth is that we are trapped in a period of long-term economic decline and we are now paying the price for decades of horrible decisions.

Amazingly, many of our politicians and many in the mainstream media have declared that “the recession is over” and that the U.S. economy is steadily improving now.

Well, if anyone tries to tell you that the economy got better in 2010, just show them the statistics below. That should shut them up for a while.

The following are 20 new economic records that were set during 2010….

#1 An all-time record of 2.87 million U.S. households received a foreclosure filing in 2010.

#2 The number of homes that were actually repossessed reached the 1 million mark for the first time ever during 2010.

#3 The price of gold moved above $1400 an ounce for the first time ever during 2010.

#4 According to the American Bankruptcy Institute, approximately 1.53 million consumer bankruptcy petitions were filed in 2010, which was up 9 percent from 1.41 million in 2009. This was the highest number of personal bankruptcies we have seen since the U.S. Congress substantially tightened U.S. bankruptcy law several years ago.

#5 At one point during 2010, the average time needed to find a job in the United States had risen to an all-time record of 35.2 weeks.

#6 Back in 1970, 25 percent of all jobs in the United States were manufacturing jobs. Today, only 9 percent of the jobs in the United States are manufacturing jobs, which is believed to be a new record low.

#7 The number of Americans working part-time jobs “for economic reasons” was the highest it has been in at least five decades during 2010.

#8 The number of American workers that are so discouraged that they have given up searching for work reached an all-time high near the end of 2010.

#9 Government spending continues to set new all-time records. In fact, at the moment the U.S. government is spending approximately 6.85 million dollars every single minute.

#10 The number of Americans on food stamps surpassed 43 million by the end of 2010. This was a new all-time record, and government officials fully expect the number of Americans enrolled in the program to continue to increase throughout 2011.

#11 The number of Americans on Medicaid surpassed 50 million for the first time ever in 2010.

#12 The U.S. Census Bureau originally announced that 43.6 million Americans are now living in poverty and according to them that was the highest number of Americans living in poverty that they had ever recorded in 51 years of record-keeping. But now the Census Bureau says that they miscalculated and that the real number of poor Americans is actually 47.8 million.

#13 According to the FDIC, 157 banks failed during 2010. That was the highest number of bank failures that the United States has experienced in any single year during the past decade.

#14 The Federal Reserve brought in a record $80.9 billion in profits during 2010. They returned $78.4 billion of that to the U.S. Treasury, but the real story is that thanks to the Federal Reserve’s continual debasement of our currency, the U.S. dollar was worth less in 2010 than it ever had been before.

#15 It is projected that the major financial firms on Wall Street will pay out an all-time record of $144 billion in compensation for 2010.

#16 Americans now owe more than $881 billion on student loans, which is a new all-time record.

#17 In July, sales of new homes in the United States declined to the lowest level ever recorded.

#18 According to Zillow, U.S. housing prices have now declined a whopping 26 percent since their peak in June 2006. Amazingly, this is even farther than house prices fell during the Great Depression. From 1928 to 1933, U.S. housing prices only fell 25.9 percent.

#19 State and local government debt reached at an all-time record of 22 percent of U.S. GDP during 2010.

#20 The U.S. national debt has surpassed the 14 trillion dollar mark for the first time ever and it is being projected that it will soar well past 15 trillion during 2011.

There are some people that have a hard time really grasping what statistics actually mean. For people like that, often pictures and charts are much more effective. Well, that is one reason I like to include pictures and graphs in many of my articles, and below I have posted my favorite chart from this past year. It shows the growth of the U.S. national debt from 1940 until today. I honestly don’t know how anyone can look at this chart and still be convinced that our nation is not headed for a complete financial meltdown….[chart]

14 Eye Opening Statistics Which Reveal Just How Dramatically The U.S. Economy Has Collapsed Since 2007 Most Americans have become so accustomed to the “new normal” of continual economic decline that they don’t even remember how good things were just a few short years ago. ‘The Economic Collapse Jan 10, 2011

’Most Americans have become so accustomed to the “new normal” of continual economic decline that they don’t even remember how good things were just a few short years ago. Back in 2007, unemployment was very low, good jobs were much easier to get, far fewer Americans were living in poverty or enrolled in welfare programs and government finances were in much better shape. Of course most of this prosperity was fueled by massive amounts of debt, but at least times were better. Unfortunately, things have really deteriorated over the last several years. Since 2007, unemployment has skyrocketed, foreclosures have set new all-time records, personal bankruptcies have soared and U.S. government debt has gotten completely and totally out of control. Poll after poll has shown that Americans are now far less optimistic about the future than they were in 2007. It is almost as if the past few years have literally sucked the hope out of millions upon millions of Americans.

Sadly, our economic situation is continually getting worse. Every month the United States loses more factories. Every month the United States loses more jobs. Every month the collective wealth of U.S. citizens continues to decline. Every month the federal government goes into even more debt. Every month state and local governments go into even more debt.

Unfortunately, things are going to get even worse in the years ahead. Right now we look back on 2005, 2006 and 2007 as “good times”, but in a few years we will look back on 2010 and 2011 as “good times”.

We are in the midst of a long-term economic decline, and the very bad economic choices that we have been making as a nation for decades are now starting to really catch up with us.

So as horrible as you may think that things are now, just keep in mind that things are going to continue to deteriorate in the years ahead.

But for the moment, let us remember how far we have fallen over the past few years. The following are 14 eye opening statistics which reveal just how dramatically the U.S. economy has collapsed since 2007….

#1 In November 2007, the official U.S. unemployment rate was just 4.7 percent. Today, the official U.S. unemployment rate is 9.4 percent.

#2 In November 2007, 18.8% of unemployed Americans had been out of work for 27 weeks or longer. Today that percentage is up to 41.9%.

#3 As 2007 began, there were just over 1 million Americans that had been unemployed for half a year or longer. Today, there are over 6 million Americans that have been unemployed for half a year or longer.

#4 Nearly 10 million Americans now receive unemployment insurance, whichis almost four times as many as were receiving it back in 2007.

#5 More than half of the U.S. labor force (55 percent) has “suffered a spell of unemployment, a cut in pay, a reduction in hours or have become involuntary part-time workers” since the “recession” began in December 2007.

#6 According to one analysis, the United States has lost a total of approximately 10.5 million jobs since 2007.

#7 As 2007 began, only 26 million Americans were on food stamps. Today, an all-time record of 43.2 million Americans are enrolled in the food stamp program.

#8 In 2007, the U.S. government held a total of $725 billion in mortgage debt. As of the middle of 2010, the U.S. government held a total of $5.148 trillion in mortgage debt.

#9 In the year prior to the “official” beginning of the most recent recession in 2007, the IRS filed just 684,000 tax liens against U.S. taxpayers. During 2010, the IRS filed over a million tax liens against U.S. taxpayers.

#10 From the year 2000 through the year 2007, there were 27 bank failures in the United States. From 2008 through 2010, there were 314 bank failures in the United States.

#11 According to the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, the number of U.S. families with children living in homeless sheltersincreased from 131,000 to 170,000 between 2007 and 2009.

#12 In 2007, one poll found that 43 percent of Americans were living “paycheck to paycheck”. Sadly, according to a survey released very close to the end of 2010, approximately 55 percent of all Americans are now living paycheck to paycheck.

#13 In 2007, the “official” federal budget deficit was just 161 billion dollars. In 2010, the “official” federal budget deficit was approximately 1.3 trillion dollars.

#14 As 2007 began, the U.S. national debt was just under 8.7 trillion dollars. Today, the U.S. national debt has just surpassed 14 trillion dollars and it continues to soar into the stratosphere.

So is there any hope that we can turn all of this around?

Unfortunately, the massive amount of debt that we have piled up as a society over the last several decades has made that impossible.

If you add up all forms of debt (government debt, business debt, individual debt), it comes to approximately 360 percent of GDP. It is the biggest debt bubble in the history of the world.

If the federal government and our state governments stop borrowing and spending so much money, our economy would collapse. But if they keep borrowing and spending so much money they will continually make the eventual economic collapse even worse.

We are in the terminal stages of the most horrific debt spiral the world has ever seen, and when the debt spiral gets stopped the house of cards is going to finally come down for good.

So enjoy these times while you still have them. Yes, today is not nearly as prosperous as 2007 was, but today is most definitely a whole lot better than 2015 or 2020 is going to be.

Sadly, we could have avoided this financial disaster completely if only we had listened more carefully to those that founded this nation. Once upon a time, Thomas Jefferson said the following….

I wish it were possible to obtain a single amendment to our Constitution. I would be willing to depend on that alone for the reduction of the administration of our government to the genuine principles of its Constitution; I mean an additional article, taking from the federal government the power of borrowing.’

Tipping Point: 25 Signs That The Coming Financial Collapse Is Now Closer Then Ever The financial collapse that so many of us have been anticipating is seemingly closer then ever. Over the past several weeks, there have been a host of ominous signs for the U.S. economy.

The Economic Collapse
Dec 17, 2010

The financial collapse that so many of us have been anticipating is seemingly closer then ever. Over the past several weeks, there have been a host of ominous signs for the U.S. economy. Yields on U.S. Treasuries have moved up rapidly and Moody’s is publicly warning that it may have to cut the rating on U.S. government debt soon. Mortgage rates are also moving up aggressively. The euro and the U.S. dollar both look incredibly shaky. Jobs continue to be shipped out of the United States at a blistering pace as our politicians stand by and do nothing. Confidence in U.S. government debt around the globe continues to decline. State and local governments that are drowning in debt across the United States are savagely cutting back on even essential social services and are coming up with increasingly “creative” ways of getting more money out of all of us. Meanwhile, tremor after tremor continues to strike the world financial system. So does this mean that we have almost reached a tipping point? Is the world on the verge of a major financial collapse?

Let’s hope not, but with each passing week the financial news just seems to get eve worse. Not only is U.S. government debt spinning wildly toward a breaking point, but many U.S. states (such as California) are in such horrific financial condition that they are beginning to resemble banana republics.

But it is not just the United States that is in trouble. Nightmarish debt problems in Greece, Spain, Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Belgium and several other European nations threaten to crash the euro at any time. In fact, many economists are now openly debating which will collapse first – the euro or the U.S. dollar.

Sadly, this is the inevitable result of constructing a global financial system on debt. All debt bubbles eventually collapse. Currently we are living in the biggest debt bubble in the history of the world, and when this one bursts it is going to be a disaster of truly historic proportions.

So will we reach a tipping point soon? Well, the following are 25 signs that the financial collapse is rapidly getting closer….

#1 The official U.S. unemployment rate has not been beneath 9 percent since April 2009.

#2 According to the U.S. Census Bureau, there are currently 6.3 million vacant homes in the United States that are either for sale or for rent.

#3 It is being projected that the U.S. trade deficit with China could hit 270 billion dollars for the entire year of 2010.

#4 Back in 2000, 7.2 percent of blue collar workers were either unemployed or underemployed. Today that figure is up to 19.5 percent.

#5 The Chinese government has accumulated approximately $2.65 trillion in total foreign exchange reserves. They have drained this wealth from the economies of other nations (such as the United States) and instead of reinvesting all of it they are just sitting on much of it. This is creating tremendous imbalances in the global economy.

#6 Since the year 2000, we have lost 10% of our middle class jobs. In the year 2000 there were approximately 72 million middle class jobs in the United States but today there are only about 65 million middle class jobs.

#7 The United States now employs about the same number of people in manufacturing as it did back in 1940. Considering the fact that we had 132 million people living in this country in 1940 and that we have well over 300 million people living in this country today, that is a very sobering statistic.

#8 According to CoreLogic, U.S. housing prices have now declined for three months in a row.

#9 The average rate on a 30 year fixed rate mortgage soared 11 basis points just this past week. As mortgage rates continue to push higher it is going to make it even more difficult for American families to afford homes.

#10 22.5 percent of all residential mortgages in the United States were in negative equity as of the end of the third quarter of 2010.

#11 The U.S. monetary base has more than doubled since the beginning of the most recent recession.

#12 U.S. Treasury yields have been rising steadily during the 4th quarter of 2010 and recently hit a six-month high.

#13 Incoming governor Jerry Brown is scrambling to find $29 billion more to cut from the California state budget. The following quote from Brown about the desperate condition of California state finances is not going to do much to inspire confidence in California’s financial situation around the globe….

“We’ve been living in fantasy land. It is much worse than I thought. I’m shocked.”

#14 24.3 percent of the residents of El Centro, California are currently unemployed.

#15 The average home in Merced, California has declined in value by 63 percent over the past four years.

#16 Detroit Mayor Dave Bing has come up with a new way to save money. He wants to cut 20 percent of Detroit off from essential social services such as road repairs, police patrols, functioning street lights and garbage collection.

#17 The second most dangerous city in the United States – Camden, New Jersey – is about to lay off about half its police in a desperate attempt to save money.

#18 In 2010, 55 percent of Americans between the ages of 60 and 64 were in the labor market. Ten years ago, that number was just 47 percent. More older Americans than ever find that they have to keep working just to survive.

#19 Back in 1998, the United States had 25 percent of the world’s high-tech export market and China had just 10 percent. Ten years later, the United States had less than 15 percent and China’s share had soared to 20 percent.

#20 The U.S. government budget deficit increased to a whopping $150.4 billion last month, which represented the biggest November budget deficit on record.

#21 The U.S. government is somehow going to have to roll over existing debt and finance new debt that is equivalent to 27.8 percent of GDP in 2011.

#22 The United States had been the leading consumer of energy on the globe for about 100 years, but this past summer China took over the number one spot.

#23 According to an absolutely stunning new poll, 40 percent of all U.S. doctors plan to bail out of the profession over the next three years.

#24 As 2007 began, there were just over 1 million Americans that had been unemployed for half a year or longer. Today, there are over 6 million Americans that have been unemployed for half a year or longer.

#25 All over the United States, local governments have begun instituting “police response fees”. For example, New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg has come up with a plan under which a fee of $365 would be charged if police are called to respond to an automobile accident where no injuries are involved. If there are injuries as a result of the crash that is going to cost extra.

16 Nightmarish Economic Trends To Watch Carefully In 2011 The American Dream Dec 15, 2010 ‘If you only watch the “economic pundits” on television, it can be very confusing to figure out exactly what is happening with the U.S. economy. One pundit will pull out a couple statistics that got a little bit better over the past month and claim that we have entered a time of solid recovery. Another pundit will pull out a couple statistics that got a little worse over the past month and claim that we are headed for trouble. So what is the truth? Well, if you really want to get a clear idea of what is really going on you have to look at the long-term trends. There are some economic trends which just keep getting worse year after year after year, and it is those trends that tell the real story of the decline of our economic system.

As you examine the long-term trends, you quickly come to realize that the U.S. is trapped in an endless spiral of debt, the middle class is being wiped out, the U.S. dollar is being destroyed and America is rapidly becoming a post-industrial wasteland.

Posted below are 16 nightmarish economic trends to watch carefully in 2011. It is becoming exceedingly apparent that unless something is done rapidly we are heading for an economic collapse of unprecedented magnitude….

#1 Do you want to see something scary? Just check out the chart below. Since the beginning of the economic downturn, the U.S. monetary base has more than doubled. But don’t worry – Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has promised us that this could never cause inflation. In fact, Bernanke says that we need to inject even more dollars into the economy. So if you are alarmed by the chart below, you are just being irrational according to Bernanke….

[chart]

#2 Thousands of our factories, millions of our jobs and hundreds of billions of dollars of our national wealth continue to be shipped overseas. In 1985, the U.S. trade deficit with China was 6 million dollars for the entire year. In the month of August alone, the U.S. trade deficit with China was over 28 billion dollars. Nobel economist Robert W. Fogel of the University of Chicago is projecting that the Chinese economy will be three times larger than the U.S. economy by the year 2040 if current trends continue.

#3 The United States is rapidly becoming a post-industrial wasteland. Back in 1959, manufacturing represented 28 percent of all U.S. economic output. In 2008, it represented only 11.5 percent and it continues to fall. Sadly, the truth is that America is being deindustrialized. As of the end of 2009, less than 12 million Americans worked in manufacturing. The last time that less than 12 million Americans were employed in manufacturing was in 1941.

#4 The number of Americans that have been out of work for an extended period of time has absolutely exploded over the last few years. As 2007 began, there were just over 1 million Americans that had been unemployed for half a year or longer. Today, there are over 6 million Americans that have been unemployed for half a year or longer.

#5 The middle class continues to be squeezed out of existence. According to a poll taken in 2009, 61 percent of Americans ”always or usually” live paycheck to paycheck. That was up substantially from 49 percent in 2008 and 43 percent in 2007.

#6 The number of Americans living in poverty is absolutely skyrocketing. 42.9 million Americans are now on food stamps, and one out of every six Americans is now enrolled in at least one anti-poverty program run by the federal government. Unfortunately, many of those that have been hardest hit by this economic downturn have been children. According to one new study, approximately 21 percent of all children in the United States are living below the poverty line in 2010 - the highest rate in 20 years.

#7 Many American families have been pushed beyond the breaking point during this economic downturn. Over 1.4 million Americans filed for personal bankruptcy in 2009, which represented a 32 percent increase over 2008. The final number for 2010 is expected to be even higher.

#8 The U.S. real estate market continues to stagnate. During the third quarter of 2010, 67 percent of mortgages in Nevada were “underwater”, 49 percent of mortgages in Arizona were “underwater” and 46 percent of mortgages in Florida were “underwater”. So what happens if home prices go down even more?

#9 More elderly Americans than ever are being forced to put off retirement and continue working. In 2010, 55 percent of Americans between the ages of 60 and 64 were in the labor market. Ten years ago, that number was just 47 percent. Unfortunately, it looks like this problem will only get worse in the years ahead. In America today, approximately half of all workers have less than $2000 saved up for retirement.

#10 In the United States today, there are simply far too many retirees and not nearly enough workers to support them. Back in 1950 each retiree’s Social Security benefit was paid for by 16 workers. Today, each retiree’s Social Security benefit is paid for by approximately 3.3 workers. By 2025 it is projected that there will be approximately two workers for each retiree.

#11 Financial assets continue to become concentrated in fewer and fewer hands. For example, the “big four” U.S. banks (Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and Wells Fargo) had approximately 22 percent of all deposits in FDIC-insured institutions back in 2000. As of the middle of 2009 that figure was up to 39 percent.

#12 The Federal Reserve has been destroying the value of the U.S. dollar for decades. Since the Federal Reserve was created in 1913, the U.S. dollar has lost over 95 percent of its purchasing power. An item that cost $20.00 in 1970 would cost you $112.35 today. An item that cost $20.00 in 1913 would cost you $440.33 today.

#13 Commodity prices continue to soar into the stratosphere. Ten years ago, the price of a barrel of oil hovered around 20 to 30 dollars most of the time. Today, the price of oil is rapidly closing in on 100 dollars a barrel and there are now fears that it could soon go much higher than that.

#14 Federal government spending is completely and totally out of control. The U.S. government budget deficit increased to a whopping $150.4 billion last month, which represented the biggest November deficit on record. But our politicians can’t seem to break their addiction to debt. In fact, Democrats are trying to ram through a 1,924 page, 1.1 trillion dollar spending bill in the final days of the lame-duck session of Congress before the Republicans take control of the House of Representatives next year.

#15 The U.S. national debt is rapidly closing in on 14 trillion dollars. It is more than 13 times larger than it was just 30 short years ago. According to an official U.S. Treasury Department report to Congress, the U.S. national debt is projected to climb to an estimated $19.6 trillion by 2015.

#16 Unfortunately, the official government numbers grossly understate the horrific nature of the crisis we are facing. John Williams of Shadow Government Statistics has calculated that if the federal government would have used GAAP accounting standards to measure the federal budget deficit for 2009, it would have been approximately 8.8 trillion dollars. Not only that, but John Williams now says that U.S. government debt is so wildly out of control that it is mathematically impossible for us to “grow” our way out of it….

The government’s finances not only are out of control, but the actual deficit is not containable. Put into perspective, if the government were to raise taxes so as to seize 100% of all wages, salaries and corporate profits, it still would be showing an annual deficit using GAAP accounting on a consistent basis. In like manner, given current revenues, if it stopped spending every penny (including defense and homeland security) other than for Social Security and Medicare obligations, the government still would be showing an annual deficit. Further, the U.S. has no potential way to grow out of this shortfall.

The more one examines the U.S. economic situation, the more depressing it becomes. The U.S. financial system is trapped inside a horrific debt spiral and we are headed straight for economic oblivion.

If our leaders attempt to interrupt the debt spiral it will plunge our economy into a depression. If our leaders attempt to keep the debt spiral going for several more years it will just make the eventual crash even worse. Either way, we are headed for a financial implosion that will be truly historic.

The debt-fueled good times that we have been enjoying for the last several decades are rapidly coming to an end. Unfortunately for the tens of millions of Americans that are already suffering, our economic problems are only going to get worse in the years ahead.’

Jobless Recovery?: 25 Unemployment Statistics That Are Almost Too Depressing To Read ‘… Unemployment is up again! That’s right – even though Wall Street is swimming in cash and the Obama administration is declaring that “the recession is over”, the U.S. unemployment rate has gone even higher. So are you enjoying the jobless recovery? Economic Collapse Blog Dec 4, 2010 ‘Guess what? Unemployment is up again! That’s right – even though Wall Street is swimming in cash and the Obama administration is declaring that “the recession is over”, the U.S. unemployment rate has gone even higher ... Times are really, really tough and unfortunately the long-term outlook is very bleak. We should have compassion on those who are out of work right now, because soon many of us may join them.

The following are 25 unemployment statistics that are almost too depressing to read….

#1 According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the U.S. unemployment rate for November was 9.8 percent. This was up from 9.6 percent in October, and it continues a trend of depressingly high unemployment rates. The official unemployment number has been at 9.5 percent or higher for well over a year at this point.

#2 In November 2006, the “official” U.S. unemployment rate was just 4.5 percent.

#3 Most economists had been expecting the U.S. economy to add about 150,000 jobs in November. Instead, it only added 39,000.

#4 In the United States today, there are over 15 million people who are “officially” considered to be unemployed for statistical purposes. But everyone knows that the “real” number is even much larger than that.

#5 As 2007 began, there were just over 1 million Americans that had been unemployed for half a year or longer. Today, there are over 6 million Americans that have been unemployed for half a year or longer.

#6 The number of “persons not in the labor force” in the United States recently set another new all-time record.

#7 It now takes the average unemployed American over 33 weeks to find a job.

#8 When you throw in “discouraged workers” and “underemployed workers”, the “real” unemployment rate in the state of California is actually about 22 percent.

#9 In America today there are not nearly enough jobs for everyone. In fact, there are now approximately 5 unemployed Americans for every single job opening.

#10 According to The New York Times, Americans that have been unemployed for five weeks or less are three times more likely to find a new job in the coming month than Americans that have been unemployed for over a year.

#11 The U.S. economy would need to create 235,120 new jobs a month to get the unemployment rate down to pre-recession levels by 2016. Does anyone think that there is even a prayer that is going to happen?

#12 There are 9 million Americans that are working part-time for “economic reasons”. In other words, those Americans would gladly take full-time jobs if they could get them, but all they have been able to find is part-time work.

#13 In 2009, total wages, median wages, and average wages all declined in the United States.

#14 As of the end of 2009, less than 12 million Americans worked in manufacturing. The last time that less than 12 million Americans were employed in manufacturing was in 1941.

#15 The United States has lost at least 7.5 million jobs since the recession began.

#16 Today, only about 40 percent of Ford Motor Company’s 178,000 workers are employed in North America, and a big percentage of those jobs are in Canada and Mexico.

#17 In 1959, manufacturing represented 28 percent of U.S. economic output. In 2008, it represented 11.5 percent.

#18 Earlier this year, one poll found that 28% of all American households had at least one member that was looking for a full-time job.

#19 In the United States today, over 18,000 parking lot attendants have college degrees.

#20 The United States has lost a staggering 32 percent of its manufacturing jobs since the year 2000.

#21 As the employment situation continues to stagnate, millions of American families have decided to cut back on things such as insurance coverage. For example, the percentage of American households that have life insurance coverage is at its lowest level in 50 years.

#22 Unless Congress acts, and there is no indication that is going to happen, approximately 2 million Americans will stop receiving unemployment checks over the next couple of months.

#23 A poll that was released by the Pew Research Center back in June discovered that an astounding 55 percent of the U.S. labor force has experienced either unemployment, a pay decrease, a reduction in hours or an involuntary move to part-time work since the economic downturn began.

#24 According to Richard McCormack, the United States has lost over 42,000 factories (and counting) since 2001.

#25 In the United States today, 317,000 waiters and waitresses have college degrees.

But this is what we get for creating the biggest debt bubble in the history of the world. For decades we have been digging a deeper hole for ourselves by going into increasingly larger amounts of debt. In America today, our entire economy is based on debt. Even our money is debt. We were fools if we ever thought this could go on forever. Just think about it. Have you ever gone out and run up a bunch of debt? It can be a lot of fun sitting behind the wheel of a new car, running your credit cards up to the limit and buying a beautiful big house that you cannot afford. But in the end what happens? It always catches up with you. Well, our collective debt is starting to catch up with us. There is a sea of red ink on every level of American society. It is only a matter of time before it destroys our economy. IF YOU THINK THAT THINGS ARE BAD NOW, JUST WAIT. THINGS ARE GOING TO GET A WHOLE LOT WORSE. A HORRIFIC ECONOMIC COLLAPSE IS COMING, AND IT IS GOING TO BE VERY, VERY PAINFUL.’




Howard Davidowitz on the Economy: "Here Are the Numbers ... WE'RE BROKE!" 11-25-10 The U.S. economy "is a complete disaster," Howard Davidowitz declared here in July, the most recent in a string of dire predictions from Tech Ticker's most entertaining guest.On the eve of Thanksgiving, I asked Davidowitz if he had any regrets, or was ready to throw in the towel given recent signs of economic revival. Are you kidding me? "Here are the numbers...we're broke," Davidowitz declares, noting the U.S. government goes $5 billion deeper into debt every day and is facing $1 trillion-plus annual deficits for the next decade. "In other words, we're bankrupt."As with the economy, Davidowitz is unwaveringly consistent in his views on President Obama, calling him "deranged, dysfunctional and discredited."Results of the midterm election show "the people of this country think we are in a catastrophe," he says. "I'm with them."Check the accompanying video for more of Howard's unfettered opinions and stay tuned for additional clips from this interview. And...Happy Thanksgiving! Aaron Task is the host of Tech Ticker. You can follow him on Twitter at @atask or email him at altask@yahoo.com

Timid Tuesday: Is it Safe? Davis ‘… This is how we pay off our current debts and I think bondholders are simply happy to get anything out of a country that admits it owes $15Tn (1/4 of global GDP) but probably owes closer to $60Tn (entire global GDP) in the form of unfunded liabilities. The funniest thing about this (and you have to laugh) is to see Conservative pundits get on TV and talk about how we need to cut $100Bn worth of discretionary spending to "fix" this (while continuing to spend $1Tn on the military and $1Tn on tax cuts for the top 1% each year). There is no fixing this and even a Republican said you can’t fool all of the people all of the time. THIS HOUSE OF CARDS IS TEETERING FOLKS – PLEASE BE CAREFUL OUT THERE! ‘


17 Things Worrying Investors Lloyd's Wall of Worry

Worry Count: 17


CHINA: 1,330,044,605 people can’t be wrong.

The PIIGS: Fasten your seatbelts. It’s gonna be a long, bumpy, expensive, weird, (insert your own adjective here) freak show of a ride.

CALIFORNIA AND THE OTHER 49 STATES: Not yet as dire as “The PIIGS”. Might I suggest the classier moniker of “The Prosciuttos” for the American basket-case states?

QE II: Gobble?

U.S. ECONOMY: The “Punky Brewster” of the global economic landscape.

UNEMPLOYMENT: Only thing worse than losing your job, losing your unemployment check. At least there’s the holiday season to cheer everyone up (read: heavy sarcasm).

TAXES: Praying to the Financial Market Gods that we don’t have another TARP-like vote fiasco.

OBAMA ADMINISTRATION PART II: Still two years before the Pres. election and the peanut gallery is already pleading for a Hail Mary Pass to get them back in the game.

HFT: Instead of beating up these liquidity supplying traders, let’s honor them with their very own stock exchange. But wait -- with no retail saps to pick-off they will never get that Day 1 opening bell tick. Perfect.

XMAS 2010: As my professor friend Nick says, “Nowadays Americans are dining off of two menus – The Million Dollar and the $0.99 Cent.” And both are pissed about it.

CURRENCIES: Poor Mr. Greenback. Does someone need a hug?

HOUSING CRISIS: Price Stabilization – Are we there yet? Just a little bit more. Are we there yet? Just a little bit more. Are we there yet? Just a little bit more….

INFLATION/DEFLATION: Fed Chief Ben B. comes out swinging from his heels in defense of inflation promotion. Don’t punch yourself out as this one is likely to go the distance.

COMMODITIES: Corrected but still sky high; fortunately these prices are only affecting core, basic, life-sustaining necessities and sparing our electronic gadgets and plus-sized SUVs. Whew!

INSIDER TRADING: Another black eye for Hedge Funds. I estimate that makes black eye number 6,597.

INTEREST RATES: South Korea and China slowly turning up the dial to “11”. On the other hand the U.S. has removed the dial altogether. This never ends well….

NORTH KOREA: Here we go again. (and now Egypt, etc.)




Consumer confidence down,
LiveLeak.com - Loonie closes above U.S. dollar dollar for first time closes below parity on Canadian loonie … hey, hey, hey … 'Huge' stock decline — but not yet MarketWatch - Brimelow ‘Commentary: Adens … ‘mega trend’ looks grim … The Adens expect a hyperinflationary collapse … ‘ Oh come on! Manipulated dollar decline with inflated earnings, stock prices thereby, etc., … we’ve seen this all before … the last few crashes … Jobless rate jumps to 9.8% as hiring slows (Washington Post) [ The reality is not a mystery! The nation’s been thrown under the bus for the greater good (wealth) of the very few (frauds on wall street, etc.); wall street giving out record bonuses from their accomplished fraud (with no-recession b.s. bernanke help) of $144 BILLION: Come on! This is gettin’ even more downright ridiculous (if that’s even possible)! Pending home foreclosure / distress sales up, oil prices (and oil stocks) up, debased dollar down, plus a little familiar ‘better than expected’ thrown in along with prospects of a ‘no-recession bernanke’ market-frothing bull session on 60 minutes and, voila, suckers’ rally into the close to keep the suckers suckered! What’s good for the frauds on wall street is bad for just about everyone else which includes the vast majority of people and businesses, domestically and globally, as current dollar manipulation / debasement ultimately results in higher costs and loss of purchasing power (ie., oil, etc.). Clearly, this is one of those fraudulent wealth transfers to the frauds on wall street et als which will ultimately be paid for by those who least are in a position to afford it, courtesy of the ever more worthless Weimar dollar, etc., inflating earnings, eps, lowering p/e multiples, etc., see infra. This is an especially great time to sell / take profits while you can since there's much worse to come! Previous: Rosy numbers on consumer sentiment, unemployment (far better than private forecasts) from the government prior to the holiday so-called ‘shop till you drop’? How can anyone believe anything they say? Najerian interviewed by Motek chimes in with the reason for good retail cheer; viz., people have stopped paying their mortgages and are using the funds to purchase retail goods; while Davidowitz adds that with record numbers of americans on food stamps, real unemployment at 17+, and wall street giving out record bonuses from their accomplished fraud (with no-recession b.s. bernanke help) of $144 BILLION … the high end stores / jewelers will do well … daaaaah! And, with insiders and wall street frauds selling into the bubble as preceded last crash, this is an especially great opportunity to sell / take profits! Suckers’ rally on light volume, full moon, and government complicity (false data / reports) to keep suckers suckered (easy for the wall street frauds to do with just a mouse click / push of the button – and, they know all those technical trade lines that are easy to program in this current phase of the scam/fraud with the debased dollar). Keep in mind, the totally mindless blather from the ‘cottage industries’ of and fraudulent wall street itself in talking up lower P/E multiples when the same is a direct result of the debasement of the dollar and the consequent manipulation / translation (not real, see Davis, infra) which preceded the financial crisis / last crash. Unemployment, trade, deficit, etc., numbers continue decidedly worse than expected along with other negative data (and in the ‘wrong direction’, that spin accorded ‘down but not as bad as before’ b*** s*** ) yet the market has rallied like no tomorrow with used home foreclosure / distressed sales, though abated owing to ‘foreclosuregate’, the other ‘heralded’ good news. Moreover, the dumbo lemmings of Europe have jumped on the fraudulent defacto bankrupt american crazy train propelled to the precipice also as if no tomorrow. This is about keeping the suckers sucked in with the help of a market-frothing pre-election debased dollar for favorable currency translation and paper (but not real when measured in, ie., gold, etc.) profits which preceded the last crisis, inflating a bubble as in the last crisis to facilitate the churn-and-earn, particularly with computerized (and high frequency) trades and which commissions they’ll get again on the way down. There is nothing to support these overbought stock prices, fundamentally or otherwise. These are desperate criminals ‘at work’. Even wall street shill, the senile Buffett is saying we’re still in a recession (depression) [ Davis: ‘… all profits are inflated by 10% (from falling, debased dollar) and that 10% is the E that gets divided from the P and gives us a much better price/multiple to hang our hats on and that gets investors to BUYBUYBUY …’ The bull market that never was / were beyond wall street b.s. when measured in gold ] This is a great opportunity to sell / take profits (these lower dollar, hyperinflationary currency manipulations / translations to froth paper stocks will end quite badly as in last crash)! This is a global depression. This is a secular bear market in a global depression. The past up moves were manipulated bull (s***) cycles (at best) in a secular bear market. This has been a typically manipulated bubble as has preceded the prior crashes with great regularity that the wall street frauds and insiders commission and sell into. This is a typical wall street ‘programmed computerized high-frequency churn and earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud as in prior crashes ( widely reported, high-frequency trading routinely accounts for more than 50% of daily U.S. equity trading volume and regularly approaches 70%. )’. This national decline, economic and otherwise, will not end until justice is served and the wall street frauds et als are criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed.The Stock Market's Long Decline Has Begun Smith ]

IMF calls for dollar alternative The International Monetary Fund issued a report Thursday on a possible replacement for the dollar as the world’s reserve currency. The IMF said Special Drawing Rights, or SDRs, could help stabilize the global financial system.

Shocking New IMF Report: The U.S. Dollar Needs To Be Replaced As The World Reserve Currency And SDRs “Could Constitute An Embryo Of Global Currency” The IMF is trying to move the world away from the U.S. dollar and towards a global currency once again. In a new report entitled “Enhancing International Monetary Stability—A Role for the SDR”, the IMF details the “problems” with having the U.S. dollar as the reserve currency of the globe and the IMF discusses the potential for a larger role for SDRs (Special Drawing Rights).

CBO Director Says Obamacare Would Reduce Employment by 800,000 Workers Testifying today before the House Budget Committee, Congressional Budget Office (CBO) Director Doug Elmendorf confirmed that Obamacare is expected to reduce the number of jobs in the labor market by an estimated 800,000.

Goldman Sachs Not So Bullish About Gold This recent note out of the Goldman Sachs Investment Strategy Group is likely to wrinkle some feathers in the world of gold investors. Goldman sees gold as an increasingly poor investment going forward.

(2-11-11) Dow 12,273 +43 Nasdaq 2,809 +18 S&P 500 1,329 +7 [CLOSE- OIL $89.05 (-54% for year 2008) (RECORD TRADING HIGH $147.27) GAS $3.11 (reg. gas in LAND OF FRUITS AND NUTS $3.35 REG./ $3.53 MID-GRADE/ $3.62 PREM./ $3.68 DIESEL) / GOLD $1,356 (+24% for year 2009) / SILVER $29.90 (+47% for year 2009) PLATINUM $1,800 (+56% for year 2009) / DOLLAR= .73 EURO, 83 YEN, .62 POUND STERLING, ETC. (How low can you go - LOWER)/ http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/update 10 YR NOTE YIELD 3.65% …..… AP Business Highlights ...Yahoo Market Update... T. Rowe Price Weekly Recap – Stocks / Bonds / Currencies - Domestic / International This Is a Secular Bear Market and The End of Buy and Hold … and Hope MARKET MANIPULATION AND HOW THE LATEST BUBBLE-FRAUD PRE-COMING CRASH IS BEING ACCOMPLISHED 3-11-10 6 Theories On Why the Stock Market Has Rallied 3-9-10 [archived website file] Risks Lurk for ETF Investors The bull market that never was/were beyond wall street b.s. when measured in gold Property Values Projected to Fall 12% in 2010 Jan 31, 2010 The Week Ahead: Risk Is Off the Cliff; Unwind Has Begun Jan 31, 2010 01-13-10 Forecast for 2010 from Seeking Alpha Contributor THE COMING MARKET CRASH / CORRECTION 1-28-10 Maierhofer (01-15-10) 11 Clear Signs Economy Sinking Economic Black Hole 1-22-10: 20 Reasons Why The U.S. Economy Is Dying And Is Simply Not Going To Recover Current Economic / Fiscal Charts Trendsresearch.com forecast for 2009 1-7-10 Crash is coming! ‘WORST ECONOMIC COLLAPSE EVER’ Must Read Economic / Financial Data This Depression is just beginning The coming depression… thecomingdepression.net MUST READ: JEREMY GRANTHAM’S QUARTERLY UPDATE 25 January 2010 (850 on the S&P) by TPC The Next Wave of Collapse is Coming Sooner than you think Sliding Back Into the Great Depression ABSOLUTELY, ABSURDLY, RIDICULOUS! SELL / TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME!

National / World

Reparations: Rahm Says Pay the Banksters First Kurt Nimmo | Emanuel knows black Americans will never see a cent under the transfer of wealth scheme known as slave reparations.

House Clears Path For Extension Of Government Spying On American Citizens Steve Watson | PATRIOT Act renewal clears House vote, will be passed next week.

Globalists Push SDRs as World Reserve Currency Kurt Nimmo | The banksters have purposely attacked the dollar in order to move us into a globalist world currency.

T_rump: Ron Paul Has “Zero Chance” Of Beating Obama Paul Joseph Watson | { Drudgereport: TRUMP DRAWS CHEERS, BOOS AT CONSERVATIVE CONFERENCE... PONDERING PRESIDENTIAL RUN... [Don’t make me laugh! … Donald T_rump Would Impose 25% Tax on China Imports if President [ trump also said america’s become the laughingstock of the world … true enough … and trump the biggest joke … Indeed, that trump even posits the possibility of a run when he should be in jail is a testament to just how big a laughingstock pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt america’s become! [ If he was mobster in chief, mobster and scoundrel trump wraps himself in populist american flag and offers up an (too little too late – typical lightweight) implausible solution to keep ‘the juice’ flowing though he’d already be in jail in a rational, non-declining nation with meaningful laws. All China has to do is dump (and not prospectively buy) their ever more and declining in value day-by-day (from dollar debasement policies) u.s. paper / bonds and overnight the u.s. economy consequently thereby collapses. [ When you come right down to it, this has been america’s most significant export. Indeed, this irrevocable structural shift, hailed by cia men hw bush and clinton (clinton couldn’t have survived with them) by way of NAFTA as the greatest thing since sliced bread was indeed in no uncertain terms condemned and warned against by Perot, a man of honor who, unlike his opponents, could not be bought, which is the reason, in pervasively corrupt america, he could never have been elected. Interestingly, you may have noticed the good (but not great, other than the spotlight on pervasive bribery including judges, police, politicians, etc., being far too light) the film ‘The Untouchables’ getting a wide re-airing of late, purporting to be a significant part of american folklore / history / culture. However, the reality is that in america, and certainly today, the real story with impact is that of ‘The Touchables’. The reality is that Elliot Ness died a broken man; bankrupt, unable to even win election to the mayoralty of his then current hometown. He was incorruptible; and hence, in the real america, unelectable at the least if not also all but unemployable (he and his are among those few genetic anomalies in america as I’ve previously alluded to. How far america has fallen from even false perception! Pervasively corrupt, meaningfully lawless america can’t even fake it anymore. See, for example, http://albertpeia.com/CIAAgentAffidavit1.jpg http://albertpeia.com/FBIAgentAffidavit11.jpg , and of course, corrupt legal / judicial processes, etc., Defacto bankrupt, fraudulent america also spends more on offensive (defensive a misnomer / propaganda) military spending than all the nations of the world combined, and by a large margin at that. Do you see a pattern emerging here [ I unfortunately only belatedly did, and the feds, fed employees, cia, all 3 branches of the u.s. government, etc., are included in this evolved american trait of inherent criminality in the most nefarious sense … The pervasively corrupt american illegal system … corrupt u.s. courts / (lawyers) / judges: Their lifetime plush appointments should be abolished, which corrupt entities are unheard of in productive societies as China, Japan, etc.. Time to abolish these drags on society and eliminate their lifetime stipends and costly bureaucracies. Rules of law mean nothing to these typically corrupt americans. Most, including sam alito of the u.s. supreme court, concerning drug money laundering and obstruction of justice in the 3rd circuit ( also maryanne trump barry who covered-up drug money laundering through her brother’s casinos in a civil RICO case) should have gone to or belong in jail. Contrary to popular belief, they do it for the money, personal money, big, cash, untraceable money. The fog of war is great for such things (360 tons $100 bills flown into Iraq and missing, etc.).

[ http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm ]. america’s just a fraudulent and failed defacto bankrupt nation. ] “I would announce, without equivocation, a 25% tax increase on anything purchased from China.” ]
CHENEY HECKLED... 'DRAFTDOGER!' 'WHERE'S BIN LADEN?' }

In reality, the Texas Congressman has a better chance than Republican darling Sarah Palin.

Wael Ghonim of Google plays an integral part in ElBaradei’s bid to seize power Tony Cartalucci | Perhaps Ghonim doesn’t know who ElBaradei really works for and that he consorts with the very men making the US policy he feigns to deplore.

Dick Cheney and Donald Rumsfeld booed at GOP convention in D.C. New York Daily News | Donald Rumsfeld and Dick Cheney were booed on Thursday at the Conservative Political Action Conference.


Cheney Heckled at CPAC: Paul Supporters Hijack Cheney-Rumsfeld Reunion TPM | Dick Cheney just popped up here at CPAC to introduce his old pal and Bush administration colleague Donald Rumsfeld when fans of Ron Paul loudly accused the former VP of being a ‘war criminal.’

Go to following pages for above links:
http://www.albertpeia.com/currentopics2ndqtr10108.htm
http://www.albertpeia.com
http://www.albertpeia.com/alresume.htm

http://www.albertpeia.com/wallstreetlunacy2ndqtr10108.htm

http://www.scribd.com/alpeia

You may post a comment on my blog on any topic: http://alpeiablog.blogspot.com

Kevin Warsh to leave Federal Reserve Board (Washington Post) [ How ‘bout gettin’ them all to leave … now that would sound like a … sound plan! Is Ben Bernanke A Liar, A Lunatic Or Is He Just Completely And Totally Incompetent? Infowars.com Did you see Ben Bernanke’s testimony before the House Budget Committee on Wednesday? It was quite a show. Bernanke seems to believe that if he just keeps on repeating the same mantras over and over that somehow they will become true. ] The departure leaves the governing board almost entirely in the hands of Obama appointees.

Mubarak's defiance puts U.S. on the defensive (Washington Post) [ Kissinger on Egypt unrest (2-01-11) – “This is only the first scene of the first act of a drama that is to be played out” - And what scene of what act are we in now sweet hank, pray tell. Indeed, after kissinger’s ingratiating comments of the wobama administration’s ‘proper’ handling of the crisis thus far (drummin’ up potential new ‘business’ for doin’ who knows what if anything at all) … his ‘consulting business’ must be … off … considerably! ]

House Republicans divided on spending cuts (Washington Post) [ Holy smokes! … $100 billion … Davis ‘… This is how we pay off our current debts and I think bondholders are simply happy to get anything out of a country that admits it owes $15Tn (1/4 of global GDP) but probably owes closer to $60Tn (entire global GDP) in the form of unfunded liabilities. The funniest thing about this (and you have to laugh) is to see Conservative pundits get on TV and talk about how we need to cut $100Bn worth of discretionary spending to "fix" this (while continuing to spend $1Tn on the military and $1Tn on tax cuts for the top 1% each year). There is no fixing this and even a Republican said you can’t fool all of the people all of the time. THIS HOUSE OF CARDS IS TEETERING FOLKS – PLEASE BE CAREFUL OUT THERE! ‘ ]
] ] An already wobbly week for House Republicans turns chaotic as their unruly new majority flatly rejects a spending plan crafted by House leaders, saying its cuts fell far short of fulfilling a campaign pledge to slice $100 billion from federal programs.

Mubarak's iron rule Robinson: Crumbling but not gently (Washington Post) [ True enough … that crumbling but not gently thing … sounds very ‘americana’ … Spreading unrest raises pressure on Mubarak (Washington Post) An array of new developments turned against President Hosni Mubarak on Wednesday as Egypt moved closer to a full rupture between its autocratic government and a growing popular rebellion. [ Do not talk about ruptures in the presence of Pharhosni Mubarak he chides the Washington Post! After all, at 82 years old and 30 years in power, hernias are known to quite easily happen… Previous: Free elections still distant prospect for Egypt Activists express doubts about feasibility of September ballot (Washington Post) ["I'm shocked by what the Americans say - that Mubarak must stay as president so we can prepare for new elections,'' said Negad El Borai, a human rights advocate and lawyer in Cairo. "Mubarak must leave, and then we can talk." … Truth be told, I’m not shocked. Indeed, though this is only marginally what america / israel wanted, this will stick to america / israel like glue; that proverbial albatross; that lose, lose scenario for america in the region. Previous: Egypt protests continue as Mubarak's government offers concessions (Washington Post) [ Come on! Let not all of us join america’s / israel’s, et als, and mubarak’s delusions. After all, here’s an 82 year old tyrant, in power for 30 years, yet in some parallel universe appears to think he’s calling the shots. Other than literal and quite foolish shots against protesters, even journalists, see infra, there are few indeed that would trust his mindset, such as it is, much less his judgment, so flawed as he has now shown it to be. What is obvious is that this long overdue ‘people’s election’ cannot be thwarted by platitudes and small talk, but resisting the inevitable will turn an american quasi-ally into an anti-american breeding ground because there’s just no reconciling a pro-mubarak, however slight, position with american / israeli, et als war crimes in the region. Restless Cairo protesters hoping for U.S. support (Washington Post) [ The sad reality here is, much like wobama’s Afghanistan fiasco, that america has ‘bought it’. This is truly yet another ‘loss, loss’ scenario as is true of america’s mideast policy generally. Defacto bankrupt america’s initiatives in the region particularly, though generally true of all american policy, is the ‘square pegs in round holes’ approach to almost everything they do, which certainly is not lost on the rest of the world. Coddling and caving in to israeli / neocon / zionist paranoia despite the war mongering intransigence of the former is devastating to a nation as pervasively corrupt america which is facing insurmountable domestic problems of its own, economically, financially, politically, and geo-politically. This should bring to mind the missteps of a former fading empire in this same region desperately trying to remain relevant. Indeed, from Balfour’s Despoliation to arbitrary boundaries, etc., Orwellian britain’s demise (decline) as a real player globally was, as america’s currently, significantly and irrevocably hastened. Quite simply, pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt america will increasingly be viewed as a bunch of ‘muck-ups’ who can’t handle their own substantial problems much less those of other nations; and in fact, invariably exacerbate existing conditions / problems, particularly when pandering to israel’s self-interested concerns. ] While the ouster of President Hosni Mubarak remains the most pressing concern for protesters, the role of U.S. is far from absent in the dialogue. { Previous: Amid Arab protests, U.S. influence has waned (Washington Post) [ And that’s just the way israel likes it … and to america’s detriment, of course … which is not lost on even George Soros … Drudgereport: Soros: 'The main stumbling block is Israel'... ….. Egyptian protesters plan new push Government detains foreigners, says it's willing to open talks (Washington Post) [ Open talks? ‘bout what? Building a pyramid in mubarak’s honor before stepping down? He’s done … finito … burnt as an over-micro-waved burrito! The following from the Post is indeed the straw that broke the riders with whips he sent on camels’ and horses’ backs! ‘Wants to die in Egypt? How touching, or the reality, he’s just plain touched as in totally ‘out of it’. ‘…In what the U.S. State Department called a "concerted campaign to intimidate," several dozen journalists were rounded up by security forces and detained for hours, along with foreigners working as teachers, engineers and human rights researchers. Across the city, angry bands of supporters of President Hosni Mubarak also beat journalists; several reporters said that they were threatened with death…’ ] Cairo seeks to shift blame for clashes by rounding up journalists; U.S. worries renewed protests could spark more violence from Mubarak supporters. Demonstrations in Egypt take bloody turn In Cairo square, Mubarak backers confront anti-government crowds (Washington Post) [ Not too difficult for desperate and done mubarak to contrive: Mubarak Says Egyptians Have to Choose Between “Chaos” and Him … Then Sends In His Thugs to Stir Up Chaos (Infowars.com) In order to justify staying in power until elections are held in September, President Mubarak said on tv that the people had to choose between him and “chaos”. ] The coordinated nature of day's events suggested that Mubarak's supporters were determined to show, as he had warned, that the country faced a "choice between chaos and stability." [ Previous: Mubarak's pledge seen as not enough Egyptian president plans to stay in office to transfer power (Washington Post) [ Let me put it another way: Mubarak is as done as an over-cooked tamale … He seems to be stalling for time and even in his age impaired mind certainly knows his position is untenable, unsustainable, and even more irrational as each second passes. There is a possibility that he’s using same to move money / treasure for himself and others, literally as well, buying time. See infra … Previous: Mubarak seeks dialogue, shows no sign of relenting Demonstrators call for massive protest but lack leadership (Washington Post) [ He relented when he resorted to media / internet blackout. Indeed, this lack of sign thing is a testament to how far from reality 30 years has taken him, not to mention the other 52 years that have taken their toll on his cognitive processes. Whether it is plaques ‘on the brain’ or outright senility, that he is so disengaged from the events unfolding around him, one may only wonder how he lasted this long. Nor did his choice of cia standin / shill, new VP Suleiman enhance his now untenable position which leaves him as ‘done as a burnt enchilada’. Kissinger on Egypt unrest – “This is only the first scene of the first act of a drama that is to be played out” [ The import of this so-called interview, and it is here that I part company with alex jones, et als (who by the way, censored me for this very thesis, which puts him and his at the top of my hypocrite list), is that the so-called elite have orchestrated these events and ‘are in control’. First, there are no elites in this world; you can’t derive elites from apes, notochordates, and initially single celled organisms. Second, almost by definition and certainly by history, there are no elites in america even if you were to accept the first proposition (though true) as untrue. What you do have, in this world and america particularly (with few exceptions as I’ve discussed elsewhere / comments / my website), are inherent criminals and mentally ill people of varying degrees of unscrupulousness and insanity who do commit crimes, both small and large, to further their interests or fortunes (sociopaths / psychopaths). The ’so-called alpha-dogs’ of the human species at most, but still incompetent vegetables who, if you look at anything they touch (to use a term term of such incompetent vegetables as historically pertains to their role in the mideast – and generally the state of the world) it invariably goes ‘pear shaped’ (english term). What hasn’t zionist kissinger not messed up as appointee or ‘consultant’ – what does he get paid for? No! The fact is, they have absolutely no idea how this unfolds and as with most of their lives, they will predictably choose the most sordid, despicable, and diabolical course at every turn because … that is their inherently criminal, mentally ill / unstable nature to do so. ]

] Fragile steps to end crisis seen as plans take shape for a transition process that would allow Mubarak to remain as a figure head until new elections. ] After decades of repression, democracy advocates say it could take many months -- if not years -- to lay groundwork for open and credible elections. ]

Mubarak cedes some authority but refuses to quit In latest bid to quell protests, president transfers powers to VP (Washington Post) [Wow! ‘Earlier Thursday, CIA Director Leon Panetta told Congress that "there is a strong likelihood that Mubarak may step down this evening."…’ Talk about being out of the loop and stuck with ‘foot-in-mouth’ … not that you’d expect more from the CIA … CIA's dilemma in Egypt (Washington Post) [ Come on! How does anyone take these ‘muck-ups’ seriously … As a purported journalist, Mr. Ignatius should know better. What distracts the agency is self-interest and greed … yes, greed for themselves, theirs, and a raison d’etre that assures their continued funding (oh how they miss the cold war, hot ones will have to do) on top of their private so-called ‘black ops’. They’re wrong or absent without leave (awol) on major events purportedly within their bailiwick; ie., mideast, israel, ‘wmd’s in Iraq’, 9-11, Egypt, etc.; and, as well, are fallacious in their policy direction, directives, etc.. I mean, beyond their nefarious undertakings, they look more and more like Maxwell Smarts (‘Get Smart’) minus ‘99’ every day. Expanded Free Trade: Exporting Jobs [ When you come right down to it, this has been america’s most significant export. Indeed, this irrevocable structural shift, hailed by cia men hw bush and clinton (clinton couldn’t have survived without them) by way of NAFTA as the greatest thing since sliced bread was indeed in no uncertain terms condemned and warned against by Perot, a man of honor who, unlike his opponents, could not be bought, which is the reason, in pervasively corrupt america, he could never have been elected. Interestingly, you may have noticed the good (but not great, other than the spotlight on pervasive bribery including judges, police, politicians, etc., being far too light) the film ‘The Untouchables’ getting a wide re-airing of late, purporting to be a significant part of american folklore / history / culture. However, the reality is that in america, and certainly today, the real story with impact is that of ‘The Touchables’. The reality is that Elliot Ness died a broken man; bankrupt, unable to even win election to the mayoralty of his then current hometown. He was incorruptible; and hence, in the real america, unelectable at the least if not also all but unemployable (he and his are among those few genetic anomalies in america as I’ve previously alluded to. How far america has fallen from even false perception! Pervasively corrupt, meaningfully lawless america can’t even fake it anymore. At CIA, mistakes by officers are often overlooked (Washington Post) [ Duuuh! I want to know of even one thing that’s not overlooked concerning those incompetent mental cases at the cia; from assassinations, to illegal drug dealing, to illegal arms sales, to corruption, to disinformation, etc., to america’s and the world’s (ie., those WMD’s in Iraq, etc.) substantial detriment. See, for example, http://albertpeia.com/CIAAgentAffidavit1.jpg http://albertpeia.com/FBIAgentAffidavit11.jpg , and of course, corrupt legal / judicial processes, etc., Defacto bankrupt, fraudulent america also spends more on offensive (defensive a misnomer / propaganda) military spending than all the nations of the world combined, and by a large margin at that. Do you see a pattern emerging here [ I unfortunately only belatedly did, and the feds, fed employees, cia, all 3 branches of the u.s. government, etc., are included in this evolved american trait of inherent criminality in the most nefarious sense ( http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm ) ]:

CRIME STATISTICS > TOTAL CRIMES (MOST RECENT) BY COUNTRY SHOWING LATEST AVAILABLE DATA (america’s No. 1).

Rank

Countries

Amount

# 1

United States:

11,877,218

# 2

United Kingdom:

6,523,706

# 3

Germany:

6,507,394

The following youtube video is well worth the look and explains how and why the frauds on wall street have gotten away with their devastating fraud thus far. The frauds on wall street et als should be criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed. ( UPDATE: MORE CLAIMS OF RACE BIAS AT JUSTICE... CIVIL RIGHTS PANEL TO PURSUE FED PROBE IN BLACK PANTHER CASE... ex-Justice official quit over the handling of a voter intimidation case against the New Black Panther Party accused his former employer of instructing attorneys in the civil rights division to ignore cases that involve black defendants and white victims US v. AZ... Cases against Wall Street lag despite Holder’s vows to target financial fraud Obama broke promises ):

‘THE OBAMA DECEPTION’ http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eAaQNACwaLw&feature=PlayList&p=2EFAB57B44063742&playnext_from=PL&index=0&playnext=1. [ The Obama Deception Number 1 on U.S. Google Trends ]

‘The Obama Deception’ Censored ‘The Obama Deception’ has been censored In light of this development, I provide an archived site version which appears to be complete (but will be compared with earlier version and replaced with same if incomplete) http://albertpeia.com/obamadeceptionhighqualityversion.flv

Then there is the well researched, produced, and informative ‘ESOTERIC AGENDA’ which explains how we’ve gotten to this forlorn point: http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-7052400717834950257#

For the Same Reason I’ve Included Here a Web Site Archived FLV Version of Esoteric Agenda http://albertpeia.com/esotericagenda.flv

] ] Ignatius: Its fight against al-Qaeda has distracted the agency.

] Egyptian leader's defiance stuns and angers hundreds of thousands in Cairo who respond with chants of "revolution, revolution."

Cisco Slump, Mubarak Saga Keep Lid On Stocks [ But guess what? The fraudulent wall street rally point … ‘news that Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak would step down’ … never happened! ] ‘Disappointing earnings projections from Cisco and PepsiCo pressured Wall Street Friday morning, but news that Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak would step down buoyed markets by midday and the major indexes essentially flat by the closing bell.The Nasdaq actually ticked positive to gain 1 point to 2,790, despite Wednesday’s troubling report from Cisco that included a decline in gross margins along with its better than expected earnings and revenue. (See “Cisco: Prelude To Profits, Or Layoffs.”)Cisco’s shares slumped 14.2%, but the rest of the tech sector as fairly resilient. Apple was also in the news, after a sudden plunge in the 1 p.m. hour on little news before recovering to finish with a 1% decline. (See “Did Someone Have A Fat Finger On Apple Today?”)Egypt jumped back into the headlines shortly after the open, with speculation that President Hosni Mubarak would resign. In a speech that began just before the U.S. markets closed, Mubarak stopped short of confirming his departure, but did say he would transfer some of his presidential powers to Vice President Omar Suleiman until a September election.It was a tough day for companies who rang the closing bells at NYSE and Nasdaq, since all eyes were on Mubarak’s speech that ran past the end of trading. The S&P 500 added 1 point to 1,322, while the Dow Jones industrial average broke its eight-day winning streak with an 11-point decline to 12,229.Aside from Cisco, a weaker-than-anticipated forecast from PepsiCo also pressured stocks, overshadowing any enthusiasm for the latest snapshot of the job market. New jobless claims fell to their lowest level since July 2008 last week, according to the Labor Department, dropping to 383,000. The four-week moving average was down to 415,500.’

Initial Jobless Claims Drop to 383,000 [ Come on! Who believes anything they say / report! ]

Minimum 5% Correction Begins Cooper ‘Minyanville Editor's Note: The following is a free edition of Jeff Cooper's Daily Market Report…..Is it getting better?Or do you feel the same?One (U2)

“Synchronicity is no more baffling or mysterious than the discontinuities of physics. It is only the ingrained belief in the sovereign power of causality that creates intellectual difficulties and makes it appear unthinkable that causeless events exist or could ever exist. But if they do, then we must regard them as creative acts, as the continuous creation of a pattern that exists from all eternity, repeats itself sporadically, and is not derivable from any known antecedents. Continuous creation is to be thought of not only as a series of successive acts of creation, but also as the eternal presence of the ONE creative act.” -
- Carl Jung

[ Wow! … Note to myself: Never bother reading the verbose, circumlocution-prone jung. And, truth be told, while I believe it to be true there’s a substantial correction in the offing, and it’s also true that the business cycles shouldn’t be ignored (though computerization has lessened the impact of ‘inventory recessions’), and that the market is significantly overvalued; the following is a bit much and included as a matter of curiosity (those modern day alchemists thing … ie., helicopter ben spinning more fake money from paper, fraudulent wall street’s worthless assets from paper and spin, etc..) and correct for the wrong or questionable reasons but is somewhat of a ‘hoot’; and so, you may borrow and don Mickey’s sorcerer’s (apprentice) hat and hang on for the ride. Whew! … that Jungian verbosity thing must be catching! Happy halloweeny! ]

Cisco Slump, Mubarak Saga Keep Lid On Stocks [ But guess what? The fraudulent wall street rally point … ‘news that Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak would step down’ … never happened! ] ‘Disappointing earnings projections from Cisco and PepsiCo pressured Wall Street Friday morning, but news that Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak would step down buoyed markets by midday and the major indexes essentially flat by the closing bell.The Nasdaq actually ticked positive to gain 1 point to 2,790, despite Wednesday’s troubling report from Cisco that included a decline in gross margins along with its better than expected earnings and revenue. (See “Cisco: Prelude To Profits, Or Layoffs.”)Cisco’s shares slumped 14.2%, but the rest of the tech sector as fairly resilient. Apple was also in the news, after a sudden plunge in the 1 p.m. hour on little news before recovering to finish with a 1% decline. (See “Did Someone Have A Fat Finger On Apple Today?”)Egypt jumped back into the headlines shortly after the open, with speculation that President Hosni Mubarak would resign. In a speech that began just before the U.S. markets closed, Mubarak stopped short of confirming his departure, but did say he would transfer some of his presidential powers to Vice President Omar Suleiman until a September election.It was a tough day for companies who rang the closing bells at NYSE and Nasdaq, since all eyes were on Mubarak’s speech that ran past the end of trading. The S&P 500 added 1 point to 1,322, while the Dow Jones industrial average broke its eight-day winning streak with an 11-point decline to 12,229.Aside from Cisco, a weaker-than-anticipated forecast from PepsiCo also pressured stocks, overshadowing any enthusiasm for the latest snapshot of the job market. New jobless claims fell to their lowest level since July 2008 last week, according to the Labor Department, dropping to 383,000. The four-week moving average was down to 415,500.’

Initial Jobless Claims Drop to 383,000 [ Come on! Who believes anything they say / report! ]

Minimum 5% Correction Begins Cooper ‘Minyanville Editor's Note: The following is a free edition of Jeff Cooper's Daily Market Report…..Is it getting better?Or do you feel the same?One (U2)

“Synchronicity is no more baffling or mysterious than the discontinuities of physics. It is only the ingrained belief in the sovereign power of causality that creates intellectual difficulties and makes it appear unthinkable that causeless events exist or could ever exist. But if they do, then we must regard them as creative acts, as the continuous creation of a pattern that exists from all eternity, repeats itself sporadically, and is not derivable from any known antecedents. Continuous creation is to be thought of not only as a series of successive acts of creation, but also as the eternal presence of the ONE creative act.” -
- Carl Jung

[ Wow! … Note to myself: Never bother reading the verbose, circumlocution-prone jung. And, truth be told, while I believe it to be true there’s a substantial correction in the offing, and it’s also true that the business cycles shouldn’t be ignored (though computerization has lessened the impact of ‘inventory recessions’), and that the market is significantly overvalued; the following is a bit much and included as a matter of curiosity (those modern day alchemists thing … ie., helicopter ben spinning more fake money from paper, fraudulent wall street’s worthless assets from paper and spin, etc..) and correct for the wrong or questionable reasons but is somewhat of a ‘hoot’; and so, you may borrow and don Mickey’s sorcerer’s (apprentice) hat and hang on for the ride. Whew! … that Jungian verbosity thing must be catching! Happy halloweeny! ]

The relevance of trading with time and cycle may alone be less accurate than forecast with price; however its relevance increases as forecasted times approach, price patterns and momentum wanes showing signs of reversal.
When taken together, time/price harmonics have accurately predicted significant market turning points.
Numbers don’t mean anything until they turn the market, but numbers, not fundamentals, turn the market. It was not the fundamentals that turned the market in March 2009.
One of W.D. Gann’s major methods for market timing was to use fractions of a circle, specifically into quarters, eighths, and thirds, to count the number of days, weeks, and months between highs and lows.
For example, the circle has 360 degrees, 90 is one-quarter, 45 is one-eighth.
Rounding, one-eighth of 90 is 11, two-eighths is 22, three-eighths is 33, and four-eights is 45.
W.D. Gann was the greatest student and researcher of the market ever but he was very secretive about what he revealed and how he revealed it. He never chose his words without a distinct reason.
For example, one of Gann’s books was called 45 Years in Wall Street. Note that the title was not 45 Years on Wall Street, but in Wall Street.
The book was not about his career on Wall Street but about a cycle on Wall Street.
As well as regular cycles, there are random fluctuations in things too. The random occurrences can camouflage the periodicity of cycles and also generate what appear to be new, smaller cycles… which they may not be. This is one of the problems with market-timing signals.
In addition, many things act as if they are influenced simultaneously by several different rhythmic influences, the composite effect of which is not regular at all.
Cycles may have been present in the figures you have been studying merely by chance. The ups and downs you have noticed, which come at more or less regular intervals, may have just happened to come that way. The regularity, the cycle, is there but in such circumstances it may carry no significance
Cycles can invert, appear and disappear, and elipticalize.
When forecasting stock market cycles, they can be influenced by random events. The predictive value of cycles provide only specific probabilities when the suggested time period is approached.
Fixed time cycles are apparent in stock market tops and bottoms. But, eventually a cycle may cease to continue. For example, the four-year cycle in the US stock market held true from 1954 to 1982, producing accurate forecasts of eight market bottoms. Had an investor recognized the cycle in 1962 he could have amassed a fortune over the next 20 years. But in 1986, the cycle’s prediction of a low failed to provide a bear market and in 1987 its rising phase failed to prevent the largest crash since 1929.
When the market doesn’t do what is expected it is talking, but ultimately the regression to the mean is vicious.
Long-term cycles, such as the Kondratieff Cycle as well as Elliott Waves, suggested that the big-picture bull market was coming to an end in 2000.
The Kondratieff Cycle is a common, often-quoted cycle of financial and economic behavior that lasts about 54 years. This 54-year cycle is close to the Fibonacci 55 number.
One year is a little less than 55 weeks.
Fifty-five was an important count for W.D. Gann. He called a period of 49 to 55 days the Death Zone. February 8 was the 49th trading day from November 30, the day prior to the December 1 kickoff of this last leg up.
A Synodic Period is the length of time two planets meet in Conjunction, which means revolving 360 degrees to each other. The 360-degree period is divided into fractions known as the Sextile (60 degrees), Square (90 degrees), Trine (120 degrees), Opposition (180 degrees), and back to Conjunction again.
Many of the Synodic planetary cycles conform to the Fibonacci Summation series. Their relationship to natural harmonic vibration is not by chance.
For example Venus revolves around the sun in 61% of one year, or 225 days. Two-hundred-twenty-five was an important number for Gann because 180 + 45 = 225. These two planets possess the unique Fibonacci relationship of the 0.618 Golden Mean.
Every other conjunction of Mars/Jupiter is four-and-one-third years, or 233 weeks, another Fibonacci number. This ties to the four-year cycle mentioned above. While the four-year cycle went out of whack in 1986, there was a significant low in the fall of 1990 and late 1994, which began the parabolic move into 2000. There was a shakeout into 1998 and of course there was the 2002 low. There was a two-month shakeout into June/July of 2006 from 1326 S&P to 1219, which marked the low prior to the advance into the all-time high. Then there was the summer low in 2010. It's interesting that these same numbers from the last cycle 1326 and 1219 are so prominent four years later.
The recent S&P high this week was 1325 and the big April top in 2010 was 1219.
The Synodic period for the Saturn/Uranus combination is 45 years. One-eighth of the 360 degree circle and one-half of 90 is 45.
I bring this up because 45 years ago marked the top of the secular bull market in 1966. That bull market began in June 1949.
The powerful two-year advance from March 2009 may have been a result of the 60-year cycle exerting its influence.
One cycle of 45 years back from 1966 gives 1921, which was the big low prior to the run up into 1929.
If the four-year cycle holds up the next trough should be in 2012. Somewhere prior to then we should see an important peak. Will a two-year advance be followed by a two-year decline?
It is interesting that it was eight years from the 1921 low to the vertical peak in 1929 and that it was eight years from 2000 to the vertical drop into 2008. I can’t help but think that a mirror image foldback of sorts may be playing out with the market, making an important peak three years following the 2009 low, just as it made an important low in 1932, three years following the 1929 peak.

Conclusion: 1320 ties to March 6 and squares the 666 price low for a potential square out. The market has respected this level for two days and is gapping below 1320 this morning.
The pattern looks reminiscent of the November top, which was a grind up followed by a climatic spike. [chart]
Monday we saw a spike on the heels of a grinding move up.
The November high was at 1225. We tagged 1325 this week.
The November correction was between 4% and 5% and 152 points. I think another 4% to 5% correction is going to play out quickly into the anniversary of the March 6/9th 2009 low.
Fifty percent of the range from the November 1173 low to this week's 1325 high is 76 points. A decline to 50% of the last swing projects to 1249. There is some good DNA and symmetry there as this was the projection for the big inverse head-and-shoulders pattern from 2010. Moreover, 1248/1249 represents a 180-degree decline on the Square of 9 Chart.
Click here for square of nine chart.
A study of market history shows that corrections against the main trend are much more uniform while impulse legs in favor of the main trend can have a large degree of variability. Said in another way, it is easier to define and anticipate corrections not in favor of and against the primary trend that it is to judge the extent of the primary trend itself. In my experience, this is one of the most important lessons revealed in the study of stock market history.
Looking at the form of the advance from the September 1 kickoff, there are two legs separated by the November correction. Because of the persistence of the advance, which has seen no more than one 2% move in the last five months (compared to 14 moves of 2% or more in the preceding five-month period), the normal expectation would be to see a similar, uniform near-5% correction be bought with both hands by market participants. At the maximum I would expect the correction to extend to a backtest of the April/November 2010 highs of 1219/1227 respectively.
If the correction overbalances the November decline in time and price then the high was more significant.
If a uniform correction plays out it would give rise to a possible third drive up. Whether such a third drive into the anniversary of the April high if it plays out is a marginal new high or a significantly higher high remains to be seen. [chart]
Strategy: It looked like Elvis had left the building following the decline of January 28. However, after a genuine sell signal that players pounce on, there is often times a final squeeze. That may have been the run to 1320.
Fifty percent of the range from the 1275 low on January 28 to this week's 1325 high gives a midpoint of 1300. Any break of 1300, especially on the weekly closing basis (Friday) confirms a correction is underway from where I sit. This 1300 level ties to 1296, which is 6 X 6 X 6 X 6, resonating of the 666 price low. 1296 is in the upper right-hand corner of the Square of 9 Chart and aligns with May 6, the flash crash, so I would not underestimate how quickly a reversion to the mean in the persistency of the advance and a revulsion to sentiment could take place if everyone tried to get out of the door at the same time. [chart]
A Dow Theory non-confirmation has been ongoing for three and a half weeks now, which is long in the tooth while the market has been overbought for months -- a situation where the chickens could come home to roost violently and quickly, despite the fact that the market has proven to be a Shrine of Boys Crying Wolf.
It may be time to yell wolf.
Trading Lessons: [chart] The following chart is mislabeled as FDX when it's actually FCX [chart]’

Counties Turning Asphalt Back to Gravel as Rising Materials Costs Hamper Road Maintenance [Well, this sounds like a b*** s***ish story for the frauds on wall sreet; viz., load up on grovel companies, etc.. ] ‘We are going back to the Stone Age. Literally. From NACO (National Association of Counties): Several counties across the country are going back to the Stone Age — turning asphalt roads back to gravel, or considering doing so — as rising costs outstrip their ability to maintain their pavements.Counties in Iowa, Michigan, California and South Dakota are among those that have decided either to stop maintaining a percentage of their asphalt roads or to pulverize some paved roads and downgrade them to gravel.Naturally, California is home to some of the hardest-hit counties. Sonoma County, for example, based on annual projected revenues can only afford to budget $5 million to maintain all the county's roads. But estimates project the cost of maintenance at 11 times that, or $55 million.



Housing and Banking Issues Remain Problematic Editor's Note: This article was written by Richard Suttmeier, chief market strategist at ValuEngine.com‘With the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage up to 5.13% from 4.81% last week, mortgage applications continue to slide. The overall Mortgage Application Index declined 5.5% this week led by a 7.7% decline in the Refinance Index with the Purchase Index down 1.4%. A major negative factor has been significantly higher US Treasury yields. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury was at 2.334 in October in anticipation of QE2 9 (quantitative easing), and on Wednesday this yield touched 3.770 up 143.6 basis points. The main purpose of QE2 is to push longer term US Treasury yields lower so this policy has been a failure.

As a result of this failed monetary policy the percentage of homes that are underwater versus that have their mortgages outstanding has risen to 27%, which feeds on projecting even lower home prices as the supply of existing homes for sale continues to rise. This in turn puts more pressure on banks to make costly mortgage modifications, and write down more commercial real estate loans. These are the problems that originally emerged in mid-2005 for the homebuilders, at the end of 2006 for community banks and in March 2007 for regional banks including those considered “too big to fail.” Remember, toxic assets are still around and the larger banks are being asked by the FDIC to increase contributions to the FDIC Deposit Insurance Fund beginning April 1.

According to Zillow, home values posted their largest quarterly decline of 2.6% in the fourth quarter, down 5.9% year over year.

On the labor front, the Labor Department reported that employers posted fewer jobs openings in December, a drop of 140,000 to 3.1 million jobs, the lowest since September. Nearly 14.5 million Americans were out of work in December with 4.7 people competing for each job available. A healthy reading is 2 to 1. Key to the housing market and Main Street, USA, are construction jobs, and job openings fell sharply to 28,000 in December from 91,000 in November.

Wednesday’s closes were above all of this week’s pivots at 12,142 Dow Industrial Average, 1316.2 S&P 500, 2770 Nasdaq, 5077 Dow Transports, and 800.13 Russell 2000. The S&P 500 tested and held its weekly pivot at 1316.2. The Dow Transport Average remains below its 50-day simple moving average at 5098 and my annual pivot at 5179.

  • The Dow Industrial Average (12,240) -- My monthly value level is 11,759 with this week’s pivot at 12,142, Wednesday’s high at 12,254.23 with daily and annual risky levels at 12,399 and 13,890.
  • The S&P 500 (1320.9) -- My quarterly value level is 1262.5 with this week’s pivot at 1316.2, and Tuesday’s high at 1324.87 and today’s risky level at 1346.1.
  • The Nasdaq (2789) -- My monthly value level is 2611 with a weekly pivot at 2770 and daily and quarterly risky levels at 2843 and 2853.
  • Dow Transports (5096) -- My monthly value level is 4962 with a weekly pivot at 5077, the 50-day simple moving average at 5098, and daily and annual pivots at 5145 and 5179. Transports lag its January 18 high at 5256.80.
  • The Russell 2000 (809.27) -- My annual and quarterly value levels are 784.16 and 765.50 with a weekly pivot at 800.13 and Tuesday’s high at 813.69 and daily risky level at 828.06.


We are still trading under a ValuEngine Valuation Warning -- 16 of 16 sectors overvalued with only 34.28% of all stocks undervalued on Wednesday, below the 35% threshold by this measure. This also means that 65.72% of all stocks are overvalued. Why does Wall Street think stocks are cheap?

The US Treasury 10-Year Yield -- (3.646) Tested 3.770 on Wednesday versus my annual value level at 3.791. My annual value level is 3.791 with a weekly risky level at 3.525. The 10-Year auction helped stabilize the US Treasury market with an auction level at 3.665, a strong 3.23 bid to cover, and an aggressive 71% indirect bid.

Comex Gold -- ($1363.7) My quarterly, weekly, and annual pivots are $1331.3, $1342.8, and $1356.5 with monthly, quarterly, and semiannual risky levels are $1412.4, $1441.7, and $1452.6. Gold remains below its 50-day simple moving average at $1375.0.

Nymex Crude Oil -- ($86.85) My semiannual pivot at $87.52 remains a magnet between a trading range between the January 28 low at $85.11 and its January 31 high at $92.84. My semiannual pivot is $87.52 has become a magnet with weekly and monthly pivots at $91.62 and $91.83. The 200-day simple moving average is $80.75.

The Euro -- (1.3728) My quarterly value level is 1.3227 with a weekly pivot at 1.3511 and monthly risky level at 1.4225.

Fed’s Warsh Resigns; Bernanke Adviser Questioned Stimulus Bloomberg | The only governor to question the expansion of record monetary stimulus in November.

Ron Paul’s First Subcommittee Hearing: Complete Video Infowars.com | This is the first hearing held by Dr. Ron Paul as Chairman of the Domestic Monetary Policy and Technology subcommittee which oversees the Federal Reserve.

The Super Bowl flyover may have cost $450,000 A Dallas TV reporter estimated that the flyover cost the Navy a total of $450,000.

Is Ben Bernanke A Liar, A Lunatic Or Is He Just Completely And Totally Incompetent? Did you see Ben Bernanke’s testimony before the House Budget Committee on Wednesday? It was quite a show. Bernanke seems to believe that if he just keeps on repeating the same mantras over and over that somehow they will become true.

The Social Security Disaster The average retirement age is measured in spans of five years for accuracy.

Global Stock Exchanges Are Headed for Major Consolidation Germany’s Deutsche Boerse is in advanced talks to buy NYSE Euronext, and the London Stock Exchange has agreed to buy Canadian stock market operator TMX, as exchanges globally look for ways to boost their markets and cut costs.

Donald T_rump Would Impose 25% Tax on China Imports if President [ If he was mobster in chief, mobster and scoundrel trump wraps himself in populist american flag and offers up an (too little too late – typical lightweight) implausible solution to keep ‘the juice’ flowing though he’d already be in jail in a rational, non-declining nation with meaningful laws. All China has to do is dump (and not prospectively buy) their ever more and declining in value day-by-day (from dollar debasement policies) u.s. paper / bonds and overnight and the u.s. economy consequently thereby collapse. [ When you come right down to it, this has been america’s most significant export. Indeed, this irrevocable structural shift, hailed by cia men hw bush and clinton (clinton couldn’t have survived with them) by way of NAFTA as the greatest thing since sliced bread was indeed in no uncertain terms condemned and warned against by Perot, a man of honor who, unlike his opponents, could not be bought, which is the reason, in pervasively corrupt america, he could never have been elected. Interestingly, you may have noticed the good (but not great, other than the spotlight on pervasive bribery including judges, police, politicians, etc., being far too light) the film ‘The Untouchables’ getting a wide re-airing of late, purporting to be a significant part of american folklore / history / culture. However, the reality is that in america, and certainly today, the real story with impact is that of ‘The Touchables’. The reality is that Elliot Ness died a broken man; bankrupt, unable to even win election to the mayoralty of his then current hometown. He was incorruptible; and hence, in the real america, unelectable at the least if not also all but unemployable (he and his are among those few genetic anomalies in america as I’ve previously alluded to. How far america has fallen from even false perception! Pervasively corrupt, meaningfully lawless america can’t even fake it anymore. See, for example, http://albertpeia.com/CIAAgentAffidavit1.jpg http://albertpeia.com/FBIAgentAffidavit11.jpg , and of course, corrupt legal / judicial processes, etc., Defacto bankrupt, fraudulent america also spends more on offensive (defensive a misnomer / propaganda) military spending than all the nations of the world combined, and by a large margin at that. Do you see a pattern emerging here [ I unfortunately only belatedly did, and the feds, fed employees, cia, all 3 branches of the u.s. government, etc., are included in this evolved american trait of inherent criminality in the most nefarious sense … The pervasively corrupt american illegal system … corrupt u.s. courts / (lawyers) / judges: Their lifetime plush appointments should be abolished, which corrupt entities are unheard of in productive societies as China, Japan, etc.. Time to abolish these drags on society and eliminate their lifetime stipends and costly bureaucracies. Rules of law mean nothing to these typically corrupt americans. Most, including sam alito of the u.s. supreme court, concerning drug money laundering and obstruction of justice in the 3rd circuit ( also maryanne trump barry who covered-up drug money laundering through her brother’s casinos in a civil RICO case) should have gone to or belong in jail. Contrary to popular belief, they do it for the money, personal money, big, cash, untraceable money. The fog of war is great for such things (360 tons $100 bills flown into Iraq and missing, etc.).

[ http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm ]. america’s just a fraudulent and failed defacto bankrupt nation. ]:

CRIME STATISTICS > TOTAL CRIMES (MOST RECENT) BY COUNTRY SHOWING LATEST AVAILABLE DATA (america’s No. 1).

Rank

Countries

Amount

# 1

United States:

11,877,218

# 2

United Kingdom:

6,523,706

# 3

Germany:

6,507,394

The following youtube video is well worth the look and explains how and why the frauds on wall street have gotten away with their devastating fraud thus far. The frauds on wall street et als should be criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed. ( UPDATE: MORE CLAIMS OF RACE BIAS AT JUSTICE... CIVIL RIGHTS PANEL TO PURSUE FED PROBE IN BLACK PANTHER CASE... ex-Justice official quit over the handling of a voter intimidation case against the New Black Panther Party accused his former employer of instructing attorneys in the civil rights division to ignore cases that involve black defendants and white victims US v. AZ... Cases against Wall Street lag despite Holder’s vows to target financial fraud Obama broke promises ):

‘THE OBAMA DECEPTION’ http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eAaQNACwaLw&feature=PlayList&p=2EFAB57B44063742&playnext_from=PL&index=0&playnext=1. [ The Obama Deception Number 1 on U.S. Google Trends ]

‘The Obama Deception’ Censored ‘The Obama Deception’ has been censored In light of this development, I provide an archived site version which appears to be complete (but will be compared with earlier version and replaced with same if incomplete) http://albertpeia.com/obamadeceptionhighqualityversion.flv

Then there is the well researched, produced, and informative ‘ESOTERIC AGENDA’ which explains how we’ve gotten to this forlorn point: http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-7052400717834950257#

For the Same Reason I’ve Included Here a Web Site Archived FLV Version of Esoteric Agenda http://albertpeia.com/esotericagenda.flv

]] “I would announce, without equivocation, a 25% tax increase on anything purchased from China.”

National / World

A Day in the Park Infowars | A strong entry for “The Answer to 1984 is 1776″ Video Contest.

Hitler finds out about the DHS Emergency Alert System and the See Something Say Something program Der Führer spazzes out over Obama stealing his centralized broadcasting system.

Obama Energy Secretary Promises “Massive” Coal Plant Closures Paul Joseph Watson | White House agenda to bankrupt coal industry via EPA regulations accelerates despite rolling blackouts

Big Sis Breaks Out “Heightened” Terror Alert as PATRIOT Act Heads to House Steve Watson & Paul Joseph Watson | Republicans and Democrats attempt to out do each other in quest to finish off freedom.

Victory: The Truth Will Out Infowars.com | Over the last few weeks, we have received a large number of excellent video contest entries.

Hosni Mubarak and American Foreign Policy Sartre | Our own citizens should hear the lesson and support any meaningful self-determination impulses.

Obama Energy Secretary Promises “Massive” Coal Plant Closures Obama Energy Secretary Steven Chu has launched the next phase of the White House’s publicly stated agenda to bankrupt the coal industry via EPA regulations after announcing the prospect of “massive” coal plant closures even as Texas and other states suffer rolling blackouts as a result of maxed-out power plants that cannot cope with demand.

Big Sis Breaks Out “Heightened” Terror Alert As PATRIOT ACT Extension Heads Back To House Floor Defeat for the proposed extension of the so called PATRIOT Act in the House Tuesday night made national headlines, yet the extension is set to pass by the end of the week anyway as it is brought back to the floor for another vote. But just in case anyone in Congress reaches the sudden epiphany that they are effectively voting on the Enabling Act, Big Sis Janet Napolitano has officially notified a congressional panel that the US faces the greatest possibility of a major terror attack since 9/11.

White House Lies On Blackouts Exposed We have become used to seeing politicians distort the truth, but when such lies are brazenly plastered all over the front page of the White House website, it really highlights how much contempt the government has for the intelligence of the American people.

Mubarak Refuses To Resign: ‘Will Not Be Dictated To By Orders From Outside’ Mubarak said he was not leaving Egypt, and said he “cannot and will not accept to be dictated orders from outside” and would remain until elections in September.

Liberals Surprised and Outraged by Sale of Huffington Post to AOL Once again, liberals and Democrats demonstrate they are clueless about how establishment politics work in America. Once again, they display their ignorance of the false right-left paradigm that controls the corporate media political realm, including the supposedly sterling liberal reputation of the Huffington Post.

Video: Alex Jones Exposes DHS Terror Fraud After making repeated attempts over several days, Alex Jones demonstrates to his listeners that the DHS reported terrorism threats and citizen spy programs are nothing more than Pavlovian boxes of control.

Faith and Fear: Christians fleeing Iraq victims of US invasion? Violence and intimidation has forced hundreds of thousands of Iraqi Christians to flee their homeland. Experts view them as one of the biggest victims of the 2003 U.S.-led invasion, with the minority group a continued target of extremists.

Sallai Meridor: Israel's fear (Washington Post) [ Come on! Wake up! Illegal nuke totin’, war crimes nation israel’s fears … p l e a s e, spare me the pro-israeli b*** s*** ! What israel fears is a projection of their own ill-founded motives and actions for which all norms, rules, laws governing civilized behavior are suspended for expedience at the least, and blood-thirst that some posit as a remnant of their historic role as Christ-killers (with roman ‘juice’). Isn’t it time, in these desperate times for america, to put america’s, not israel’s interests, first. Who cares what israel fears … In 1948, U.S. Secretary of Defense James Forrestal, an opponent of the creation of a Jewish state in Palestine, warned that, even though failure to go along with the Zionists might cost President Truman the states of New York, Pennsylvania, and California, it was about time that somebody should pay some consideration to whether we might not lose the United States….. Mr. Forrestal was absolutely correct! Isn’t that exactly what’s happened to defacto bankrupt america in intractable decline. TIME TO REVOKE AND NULLIFY THE BALFOUR DECLARATION AND ABROGATE THE CREATION OF THE NATION STATE OF ISRAEL IN THE INTERESTS OF FAIRNESS, JUSTICE, PEACE AND PROSPECTIVE PROSPERITY FOR THIS WORLD! Israel wary of transition in Egypt, concerned about regional stability (Washington Post) [ Who cares what the paranoid, war criminal, illegal nuke totin’, war criminal israelis are wary of. This country has gone down the tubes cow-towing to the paranoid, self-interested concerns of the psycho / sociopathic zionist israelis who are forever projecting their own pathological motives to every turn of history while ignoring their own culpability in producing the very outcomes they purportedly seek to avoid. War, conflict, greed, bloodshed is the historically based israeli way. ] A resurgent Syria alarms u.s., israel (Washington Post) [ Tell me! What doesn’t alarm these two paranoid, zionist neo-nazi regimes of oppression, suppression, aggression, and regression. If they were individuals, they’d undoubtedly be diagnosed as psychopaths, sociopaths totally ignorant of the rights of others, laws, civilized behavior as israel pads her illegal nuke arsenals with american supplied weaponry / support while expecting all other nations to ‘role over and die’. Bipolar / manic / depressive, the ups and downs are increasingly difficult for even americans to follow. Obssessive / compulsive thy names are zionist israel / america. Projection / displacement regarding their own illegal acts, war crimes, etc.; what they distinguished from what they do … dissociative identity disorder, dissociative fugue? Yes … the u.s. and israel are the world’s lunatics, sorely in need of therapy! ] Syria's fresh interference in Lebanon and its increasingly sophisticated weapons shipments to Hezbollah have alarm officials and prompt Israel's military to consider striking a Syrian weapons depot.

Spreading unrest raises pressure on Mubarak (Washington Post) An array of new developments turned against President Hosni Mubarak on Wednesday as Egypt moved closer to a full rupture between its autocratic government and a growing popular rebellion. [ Do not talk about ruptures in the presence of Pharhosni Mubarak he chides the Washington Post! After all, at 82 years old and 30 years in power, hernias are known to quite easily happen… Previous: Free elections still distant prospect for Egypt Activists express doubts about feasibility of September ballot (Washington Post) ["I'm shocked by what the Americans say - that Mubarak must stay as president so we can prepare for new elections,'' said Negad El Borai, a human rights advocate and lawyer in Cairo. "Mubarak must leave, and then we can talk." … Truth be told, I’m not shocked. Indeed, though this is only marginally what america / israel wanted, this will stick to america / israel like glue; that proverbial albatross; that lose, lose scenario for america in the region. Previous: Egypt protests continue as Mubarak's government offers concessions (Washington Post) [ Come on! Let not all of us join america’s / israel’s, et als, and mubarak’s delusions. After all, here’s an 82 year old tyrant, in power for 30 years, yet in some parallel universe appears to think he’s calling the shots. Other than literal and quite foolish shots against protesters, even journalists, see infra, there are few indeed that would trust his mindset, such as it is, much less his judgment, so flawed as he has now shown it to be. What is obvious is that this long overdue ‘people’s election’ cannot be thwarted by platitudes and small talk, but resisting the inevitable will turn an american quasi-ally into an anti-american breeding ground because there’s just no reconciling a pro-mubarak, however slight, position with american / israeli, et als war crimes in the region. Restless Cairo protesters hoping for U.S. support (Washington Post) [ The sad reality here is, much like wobama’s Afghanistan fiasco, that america has ‘bought it’. This is truly yet another ‘loss, loss’ scenario as is true of america’s mideast policy generally. Defacto bankrupt america’s initiatives in the region particularly, though generally true of all american policy, is the ‘square pegs in round holes’ approach to almost everything they do, which certainly is not lost on the rest of the world. Coddling and caving in to israeli / neocon / zionist paranoia despite the war mongering intransigence of the former is devastating to a nation as pervasively corrupt america which is facing insurmountable domestic problems of its own, economically, financially, politically, and geo-politically. This should bring to mind the missteps of a former fading empire in this same region desperately trying to remain relevant. Indeed, from Balfour’s Despoliation to arbitrary boundaries, etc., Orwellian britain’s demise (decline) as a real player globally was, as america’s currently, significantly and irrevocably hastened. Quite simply, pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt america will increasingly be viewed as a bunch of ‘muck-ups’ who can’t handle their own substantial problems much less those of other nations; and in fact, invariably exacerbate existing conditions / problems, particularly when pandering to israel’s self-interested concerns. ] While the ouster of President Hosni Mubarak remains the most pressing concern for protesters, the role of U.S. is far from absent in the dialogue. { Previous: Amid Arab protests, U.S. influence has waned (Washington Post) [ And that’s just the way israel likes it … and to america’s detriment, of course … which is not lost on even George Soros … Drudgereport: Soros: 'The main stumbling block is Israel'...

Egyptian protesters plan new push Government detains foreigners, says it's willing to open talks (Washington Post) [ Open talks? ‘bout what? Building a pyramid in mubarak’s honor before stepping down? He’s done … finito … burnt as an over-micro-waved burrito! The following from the Post is indeed the straw that broke the riders with whips he sent on camels’ and horses’ backs! ‘Wants to die in Egypt? How touching, or the reality, he’s just plain touched as in totally ‘out of it’. ‘…In what the U.S. State Department called a "concerted campaign to intimidate," several dozen journalists were rounded up by security forces and detained for hours, along with foreigners working as teachers, engineers and human rights researchers. Across the city, angry bands of supporters of President Hosni Mubarak also beat journalists; several reporters said that they were threatened with death…’ ] Cairo seeks to shift blame for clashes by rounding up journalists; U.S. worries renewed protests could spark more violence from Mubarak supporters. Demonstrations in Egypt take bloody turn In Cairo square, Mubarak backers confront anti-government crowds (Washington Post) [ Not too difficult for desperate and done mubarak to contrive: Mubarak Says Egyptians Have to Choose Between “Chaos” and Him … Then Sends In His Thugs to Stir Up Chaos (Infowars.com) In order to justify staying in power until elections are held in September, President Mubarak said on tv that the people had to choose between him and “chaos”. ] The coordinated nature of day's events suggested that Mubarak's supporters were determined to show, as he had warned, that the country faced a "choice between chaos and stability." [ Previous: Mubarak's pledge seen as not enough Egyptian president plans to stay in office to transfer power (Washington Post) [ Let me put it another way: Mubarak is as done as an over-cooked tamale … He seems to be stalling for time and even in his age impaired mind certainly knows his position is untenable, unsustainable, and even more irrational as each second passes. There is a possibility that he’s using same to move money / treasure for himself and others, literally as well, buying time. See infra … Previous: Mubarak seeks dialogue, shows no sign of relenting Demonstrators call for massive protest but lack leadership (Washington Post) [ He relented when he resorted to media / internet blackout. Indeed, this lack of sign thing is a testament to how far from reality 30 years has taken him, not to mention the other 52 years that have taken their toll on his cognitive processes. Whether it is plaques ‘on the brain’ or outright senility, that he is so disengaged from the events unfolding around him, one may only wonder how he lasted this long. Nor did his choice of cia standin / shill, new VP Suleiman enhance his now untenable position which leaves him as ‘done as a burnt enchilada’. Kissinger on Egypt unrest – “This is only the first scene of the first act of a drama that is to be played out” [ The import of this so-called interview, and it is here that I part company with alex jones, et als (who by the way, censored me for this very thesis, which puts him and his at the top of my hypocrite list), is that the so-called elite have orchestrated these events and ‘are in control’. First, there are no elites in this world; you can’t derive elites from apes, notochordates, and initially single celled organisms. Second, almost by definition and certainly by history, there are no elites in america even if you were to accept the first proposition (though true) as untrue. What you do have, in this world and america particularly (with few exceptions as I’ve discussed elsewhere / comments / my website), are inherent criminals and mentally ill people of varying degrees of unscrupulousness and insanity who do commit crimes, both small and large, to further their interests or fortunes (sociopaths / psychopaths). The ’so-called alpha-dogs’ of the human species at most, but still incompetent vegetables who, if you look at anything they touch (to use a term term of such incompetent vegetables as historically pertains to their role in the mideast – and generally the state of the world) it invariably goes ‘pear shaped’ (english term). What hasn’t zionist kissinger not messed up as appointee or ‘consultant’ – what does he get paid for? No! The fact is, they have absolutely no idea how this unfolds and as with most of their lives, they will predictably choose the most sordid, despicable, and diabolical course at every turn because … that is their inherently criminal, mentally ill / unstable nature to do so. ]

] Fragile steps to end crisis seen as plans take shape for a transition process that would allow Mubarak to remain as a figure head until new elections.

} ]

] After decades of repression, democracy advocates say it could take many months -- if not years -- to lay groundwork for open and credible elections.

]

Congress must raise debt ceiling, Bernanke warns (Washington Post) [ Riiiiight, bunglo ben … this from the same ben who forecasted ‘no-recession’. The fact is, ‘helicopter ben shalom bernanke’ hasn’t the slightest idea what he’s doing and is the ‘poster boy’, epitome of that incompetent ivy league vegetable who’s long on rhetoric and cv but quite short on real results. The only thing that has been true as per his stated intentions, is an inflated new wall street bubble to and for the benefit of the wall street frauds. ‘Have printing press, will travel’ … that soldier of his and their fortune is a man called ‘Palawallstreet’ aka ben shalom bernanke … which temporary obfuscation with money that’s not really there in real terms means that beyond the temporary look good/feel good, disaster straight ahead. Bernanke's Worst Nightmare Is This Man's Boxes: Caroline Baum BusinessWeek Feb. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Ben Bernanke arrived at his office a week ago and came face to face with his worst nightmare. Staring out at the Federal Reserve chairman from page C1 of the Feb. 3 edition of the Wall Street Journal was a photo ... The Associated Press Video: Republicans Grill Bernanke Over Inflation, Debt Paul calls Fed's Bernanke "cocky" in House hearing Reuters [ Yeah … Come on! … The incompetent ‘no-recession helicopter ben’ has nothing whatsoever to be cocky about; he’s clueless as to what to do; satisfied to be helping the frauds on wall street; but in the end, this will end … quite badly! ] Drudgereport:White House to Slash Heating Program for Poor…but still no pros of massive frauds on wall street which fines and disgorgement of would yield huge amounts to cover spending... [ Howard Davidowitz on the Economy: "Here Are the Numbers ... WE'RE BROKE!" 11-25-10 The U.S. economy "is a complete disaster," Howard Davidowitz declared here in July, the most recent in a string of dire predictions from Tech Ticker's most entertaining guest.On the eve of Thanksgiving, I asked Davidowitz if he had any regrets, or was ready to throw in the towel given recent signs of economic revival. Are you kidding me? "Here are the numbers...we're broke," Davidowitz declares, noting the U.S. government goes $5 billion deeper into debt every day and is facing $1 trillion-plus annual deficits for the next decade. "In other words, we're bankrupt."As with the economy, Davidowitz is unwaveringly consistent in his views on President Obama, calling him "deranged, dysfunctional and discredited."Results of the midterm election show "the people of this country think we are in a catastrophe," he says. "I'm with them."Check the accompanying video for more of Howard's unfettered opinions and stay tuned for additional clips from this interview. And...Happy Thanksgiving! Aaron Task is the host of Tech Ticker. You can follow him on Twitter at @atask or email him at altask@yahoo.comTimid Tuesday: Is it Safe? Davis ‘… This is how we pay off our current debts and I think bondholders are simply happy to get anything out of a country that admits it owes $15Tn (1/4 of global GDP) but probably owes closer to $60Tn (entire global GDP) in the form of unfunded liabilities. The funniest thing about this (and you have to laugh) is to see Conservative pundits get on TV and talk about how we need to cut $100Bn worth of discretionary spending to "fix" this (while continuing to spend $1Tn on the military and $1Tn on tax cuts for the top 1% each year). There is no fixing this and even a Republican said you can’t fool all of the people all of the time. THIS HOUSE OF CARDS IS TEETERING FOLKS – PLEASE BE CAREFUL OUT THERE! ‘ ]
] Fed chairman offers dire warnings about the damage Congress could wreak if it refrains from raising the government's debt limit this spring.

Rep. Lee (R-N.Y.) resigns after Craigslist incident (Washington Post) [ I am truly astounded; and, I say that without even a tinge of sarcasm. Where is the corpus dilicti here. That he is a fool and somewhat a dummy, if such is the standard for resignation, then all of capital hill should be tendering their resignations en masse. After all, aside from the inherent conflict, and particularly in light of a financial / fiscal / economic disaster in large part of their own making and compounding by failing to prosecute the perps and instead accommodate their crimes, ie., FASB rule change, etc., does not the consistent though undeserved raises they give themselves constitute of sorts a defalcation of duty, responsibility, and trust. Unlike congress, indeed all the pervasively corrupt and incompetent branches of u.s. government in their day-to-day activities / course of business, though tasteless, sleazy, etc., this so-called incident is without a corpus dilicti. It kind of reminds me of that scene in ‘Road to Perdition’ when mob kingpin Newman responds (in a somewhat incredulous, come on, who you kidding way) to former footsoldier Hanks by reminding him that they’re all murderers (in the room-including Hanks).] Move came after a Web site reported that the married congressman had e-mailed a shirtless image of himself to a woman he met online.

CIA's dilemma in Egypt (Washington Post) [ Come on! How does anyone take these ‘muck-ups’ seriously … As a purported journalist, Mr. Ignatius should know better. What distracts the agency is self-interest and greed … yes, greed for themselves, theirs, and a raison d’etre that assures their continued funding (oh how they miss the cold war, hot ones will have to do) on top of their private so-called ‘black ops’. They’re wrong or absent without leave (awol) on major events purportedly within their bailiwick; ie., mideast, israel, ‘wmd’s in Iraq’, 9-11, Egypt, etc.; and, as well, are fallacious in their policy direction, directives, etc.. I mean, beyond their nefarious undertakings, they look more and more like Maxwell Smarts (‘Get Smart’) minus ‘99’ every day. Expanded Free Trade: Exporting Jobs [ When you come right down to it, this has been america’s most significant export. Indeed, this irrevocable structural shift, hailed by cia men hw bush and clinton (clinton couldn’t have survived without them) by way of NAFTA as the greatest thing since sliced bread was indeed in no uncertain terms condemned and warned against by Perot, a man of honor who, unlike his opponents, could not be bought, which is the reason, in pervasively corrupt america, he could never have been elected. Interestingly, you may have noticed the good (but not great, other than the spotlight on pervasive bribery including judges, police, politicians, etc., being far too light) the film ‘The Untouchables’ getting a wide re-airing of late, purporting to be a significant part of american folklore / history / culture. However, the reality is that in america, and certainly today, the real story with impact is that of ‘The Touchables’. The reality is that Elliot Ness died a broken man; bankrupt, unable to even win election to the mayoralty of his then current hometown. He was incorruptible; and hence, in the real america, unelectable at the least if not also all but unemployable (he and his are among those few genetic anomalies in america as I’ve previously alluded to. How far america has fallen from even false perception! Pervasively corrupt, meaningfully lawless america can’t even fake it anymore. At CIA, mistakes by officers are often overlooked (Washington Post) [ Duuuh! I want to know of even one thing that’s not overlooked concerning those incompetent mental cases at the cia; from assassinations, to illegal drug dealing, to illegal arms sales, to corruption, to disinformation, etc., to america’s and the world’s (ie., those WMD’s in Iraq, etc.) substantial detriment. See, for example, http://albertpeia.com/CIAAgentAffidavit1.jpg http://albertpeia.com/FBIAgentAffidavit11.jpg , and of course, corrupt legal / judicial processes, etc., Defacto bankrupt, fraudulent america also spends more on offensive (defensive a misnomer / propaganda) military spending than all the nations of the world combined, and by a large margin at that. Do you see a pattern emerging here [ I unfortunately only belatedly did, and the feds, fed employees, cia, all 3 branches of the u.s. government, etc., are included in this evolved american trait of inherent criminality in the most nefarious sense ( http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm ) ]:

CRIME STATISTICS > TOTAL CRIMES (MOST RECENT) BY COUNTRY SHOWING LATEST AVAILABLE DATA (america’s No. 1).

Rank

Countries

Amount

# 1

United States:

11,877,218

# 2

United Kingdom:

6,523,706

# 3

Germany:

6,507,394

The following youtube video is well worth the look and explains how and why the frauds on wall street have gotten away with their devastating fraud thus far. The frauds on wall street et als should be criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed. ( UPDATE: MORE CLAIMS OF RACE BIAS AT JUSTICE... CIVIL RIGHTS PANEL TO PURSUE FED PROBE IN BLACK PANTHER CASE... ex-Justice official quit over the handling of a voter intimidation case against the New Black Panther Party accused his former employer of instructing attorneys in the civil rights division to ignore cases that involve black defendants and white victims US v. AZ... Cases against Wall Street lag despite Holder’s vows to target financial fraud Obama broke promises ):

‘THE OBAMA DECEPTION’ http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eAaQNACwaLw&feature=PlayList&p=2EFAB57B44063742&playnext_from=PL&index=0&playnext=1. [ The Obama Deception Number 1 on U.S. Google Trends ]

‘The Obama Deception’ Censored ‘The Obama Deception’ has been censored In light of this development, I provide an archived site version which appears to be complete (but will be compared with earlier version and replaced with same if incomplete) http://albertpeia.com/obamadeceptionhighqualityversion.flv

Then there is the well researched, produced, and informative ‘ESOTERIC AGENDA’ which explains how we’ve gotten to this forlorn point: http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-7052400717834950257#

For the Same Reason I’ve Included Here a Web Site Archived FLV Version of Esoteric Agenda http://albertpeia.com/esotericagenda.flv

] ] Ignatius: Its fight against al-Qaeda has distracted the agency.

Rumors Cause Some Selling: Dave's Daily [But more than a rumor, it is a market top] ‘A rumor making the rounds, later denied, was hedge fund kingpin Paul Tudor Jones was calling a market top. That caused a bout of selling which naturally increased volume from those weak handed investors. Nevertheless, PTJ's PR people stated: "Phooey" and that was that. There may also be some nervousness over current and impending arrests for insider trading. The bigger news is the divergence of emerging markets from previous "got to own" status to just the opposite as some $10 billion has come out of linked ETFs and markets are selling-off. With rumor denials confirmed meant a sharp late day recovery rally seemed logical as dip buyers are still ever present. The obligatory "buy program express" hit the tape late to keep losses to a minimum while the clear market leader DJIA (window dressing for the tourists) eked-out a slight gain. The Fed had tossed in another round of POMO and late in the day trading desks have to do "something" with it. Earnings continued to roll-in with impressive results. Coke came in with solid earnings that met expectations for example. Economic data was slim with more impressive stuff for Thursday. Then there was the much discussed ("what does it mean" news) that the German Bourse and NYSE will merge. The world gets smaller and perhaps more efficient while New York and perhaps Chicago lose some prestige and business…’

Cisco And Akamai Are Getting Crushed After Hours, So NASDAQ Futures Are Diving , On Wednesday February 9, 2011, 4:59 pm EST ‘It's going to be a pretty ugly day tomorrow for big tech. At least if the action right now is indicative.Two big names are diving.The first is Cisco, which is down 7% after hours on pretty meh earnings. The number was fine, but on the call the company has revealed margin pressure, and this is basically looking like a repeat of last quarter when the stock tanked after earnings.The other is Akamai, which is also down hard, on a revenue outlook that's less than impressive. The revenue outlook was well below expectations.With these two players diving, it's no surprise that NASDAQ-100 futures are getting whacked after hours, indicating a slide of more than 0.5%.Tech, of course, has been particularly hot of late.’

Is the Market Headed for a Sell-Off? Zaky [ Yes … I agree, except that fundamentally the longer term prospects are even worse than his bearish outlook suggests (don’t forget the debasement of the dollar, manipulation, and spending / printing money the nation doesn’t have in real terms behind this manipulated uptick) and summarized as follows: ‘I suspect that this rally is on its very last legs. We should see a very healthy 10% or so correction within the next 1-2 week period ... This market is headed for a sell-off. ]

2011 Update: Another Lost Decade for Stocks - Are You Prepared? [ I agree that this is but a (manipulated) bull cycle in a secular bear market with substantially worse to come! ]Kopas ‘In February 2010, we published an article on Seeking Alpha entitled “Another Lost Decade for Stocks - Are You Prepared?,” wherein we argued that the year 2000 marked a secular (long-term) peak for U.S. stocks. A secular bear market is formed when a series of business cycles are linked together, establishing an extended period of stock market under-performance. Our objective here is to bring you up-to-date on the progress of this secular bear market and help you prepare for the next ten years…’

How to Squeeze the Most Out of a Late-Stage Rally ‘Something curious happened the last two months. In December, the investment community turned extremely bullish on stocks. By some measures optimism shot through the roof and eclipsed some of the readings seen at the 2007 all-time highs.Such extremes usually lead to some sort of a correction. In October 2007 they were followed by a 50%+ decline, in April 2010 by a near 20% decline. But not in December, prices kept climbing and curiously, sentiment starting fading away from the December extremes.In general, that is good news for anyone owning stocks, but sentiment is still elevated to a degree where being long stocks is quite risky. Testament is the fear barometer - the VIX (Chicago Options: ^VIX) fell to a 3 year low yesterday.

Technical Cracks

In addition to a constant flow of bad news domestically and abroad, some technical indicators are flashing red flags.Since the last mini sell-off on January 28 (when Egypt made front-page news), volume has dropped precipitously. Over 1.3 billion shares were traded on the NYSE when the S&P (SNP: ^GSPC), Dow Jones (DJI: ^DJI), and Nasdaq (Nasdaq: ^IXIC) dropped about 2% on January 28.The last five trading days saw volume of less than 1 billion shares (see chart below). According to technical analysis 101, low volume up days and high volume down days isn't exactly bullish. [chart] A look at the percentage of stocks trading above their 50-day moving average also conveys weakness. Five weeks ago 80% of stocks trading on the NYSE were above their respective 50-day MA. Since then the S&P (NYSEArca: IVV - News) has tagged on 5%, but the percentage of stocks above their 50-day MA has fallen to 75%.

2011 Performance - 52%?

Year-to-date the S&P 500 is up 5% - that's 5% in five weeks or 1% a week. At this pace the S&P is on course to gain 52% in 2011. Is that realistic?At some point in the not too distant future, traders are likely to look at the year-to-date performance and say, that's too good to be true!We've seen such 'too good to be true moments' in January and April 2010. Below is a small sampling of headlines that appeared within a day or two of the April 2010 peak, and days before the May 'Flash Crash.'

Bloomberg: 'U.S. stocks cheapest since 1990'

Wall Street Journal: Consumer mojo lifts profits'

Reuters: 'Greece contagion fears unfounded'

Yahoo Tech Ticker: 'S&P could hit 3000 by 2020'

Newsweek: 'America is back - The remarkable tale of an economic turnaround'

In contrast to that warm and fuzzy feeling, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter warned on April 16: 'The message conveyed by the composite bullishness is unmistakably bearish. The pieces are in place for a major decline.'The Fed-funded money flow has kept a constant bid beneath prices, but the common expectation that this pre-Presidential election year is going to be gang busters, particularly after a strong January, is reason for suspicion.

Safety Nets

The easiest way to guard against an unwanted decline is simply to sell. This locks in profits but often comes with the annoying side effect of having to watch stocks go up, while you are sitting on the sideline.Before buying or selling anything, investors should ask themselves whether they prefer to be on the sideline while stocks go up, or be fully invested when stocks go down. One of the two scenarios is bound to happen, at least temporarily.If you are not ready to cut loose from your stocks, you may consider buying put protection. $420 buys you the right to sell SPY at 132 anytime before May 20, 2011. If you want to spend less money for an earlier expiration date, the April put sells for $320, and the March put for $230. Like an insurance policy, this gives you piece of mind for a small premium.

Eagle Eye

As per the VIX, complacency is ever present right now, but that's exactly the time you want to be on guard. Like a thief, the market strikes when least expected.An effective way to limit risk and maximize profits is to set sell stops at major support levels. The market often tests support before resuming its uptrend. If support fails, watch out.Back in November, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter highlighted the pivotal role of the 1,170 level. The S&P tested - but never broke below - that level five times before continuing its diabolical up trend.Where is today's key support level? As per the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter a failed low-risk entry would be the sign for a trend reversal. What is a failed low-risk entry? This signal is based on the percentR indicator, a measure of relative strength.In a strong market, particularly after a long up trend, percentR will hover above 80. A powerful enough decline can result in a drop below 80. Once percentR closes below 80 it will trigger a bullish low risk entry.It triggered such low-risk entries on January 19 and 28. It would have taken another down day and a close below that day's low, to get a failed low-risk entry. In January, it would have taken a close below 1,279 and 1,275 to confirm a low-risk entry. It never happened.Since stocks have gained about 4% since the last low-risk entry, it's likely that the next low-risk entry will occur at higher prices. To pinpoint this major support now would be speculation. It's for sure, though, that no bear market will start without a failed low-risk entry…’

Stocks End Mostly Lower Midnight Trader ‘4:32 PM, Feb 9, 2011 --

  • NYSE down 35.86 (-0.4%) to 8,343.99
  • DJIA up 6.74 (+0.06%) to 12,240
  • S&P 500 down 3.69 (-0.3%) to 1,321
  • Nasdaq down 7.98 (-0.3%) to 2,789

GLOBAL SENTIMENT

  • Hang Seng down 1.36%
  • Nikkei down 0.17%
  • FTSE down 0.64%

UPSIDE MOVERS

(+) TTWO easily beats with results.
(+) DIS beats with results.
(+) TSTC CEO buying shares.
(+) RL beats with results.
(+) CHBT beats with results.
(+) CHKP hikes buyback program.
(+) BIDU upgraded.
(+) PLAB guides higher.

DOWNSIDE MOVERS

(-) JOE exploring alternatives, including possible sale.
(-) FSLR inks new deal.
(-) WFC continues drop seen after announcing CFO retirement.
(-) BCDS misses with results, outlook.
(-) SNY warns for declining profit.

MARKET DIRECTION

Stock averages end narrowly mixed after spending a soggy session mostly in negative territory. Still, the blue-chip Dow's late-day spurt lands it barely in positive territory, just enough to extend its win streak to eight sessions. Strong consumer names such as Coca-Cola (KO) and Disney (DIS) gained, limiting the Dow's drop, after upbeat earnings reports. Wall Street is cooling off a bit as averages hit fresh multi-year highs earlier in the week. Major benchmarks are up more than 5% so far this year. Stocks also slipped as investors digested Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke's continuing testimony on the economic outlook and monetary and fiscal policy to the House Budget Committee. Speaking before the committee, Bernanke said that last month's jobless rate decline to 9% from 9.8% offers some reason for optimism, but said it would likely be several years before the unemployment rate returns to more normal levels, according to MarketWatch. Bernake said, despite economic improvements, the central bank will continue with its $600 billion stimulus plan. There were no major economic reports out today.

In company news:

Visa (V) was down on plans to buy PlaySpan, a privately held company whose payments platform handles transactions for digital goods in online games, digital media and social networks globally. According to the company, the acquisition will complement its 2010 CyberSource acquisition and extend its capabilities into one of the fastest-growing segments of eCommerce - digital and mobile commerce.

eBay (EBAY) was down following a Bloomberg report that the online auction company is planning to lay out a three-year plan tomorrow to expand its PayPal unit business and repel threats from Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL). PayPal is eBay's fastest-growing business. The service is set to generate more sales than eBay's e-commerce market place, the report said.

Teva Pharmaceuticals (TEVA) shares were lower despite positive drug trial news. Teva said results from a Phase III study of QNAZE HFA, its nasal aerosol corticosteroid in development to treat perennial allergic rhinitis (PAR) and seasonal allergic rhinitis, achieved all primary and secondary efficacy endpoints, demonstrating significantly greater relief of nasal symptoms, including runny nose, nasal congestion, nasal itching and sneezing, compared with placebo.

Goldman Sachs (GS) shares were down after Goldman Chief Financial Officer David Viniar said the company bought too many hard-to-sell assets before the financial crisis in 2008, Bloomberg reported. The comments came from a conference in Miami hosted by Credit Suisse. Viniar said that Goldman was "buying more illiquid assets than we probably should have."

French drug maker Sanofi-Aventis (SNY) was down following news that ongoing efforts to win over its takeover target U.S biotech Genzyme (GENZ) has prompted the firm to expect an earnings decline this year of between 5% and 10%. The company said it expects generic competition to accelerate next year and predicts a 5% to 10% decline in 2011 business earnings per share. The forecast does not assume a return of generic competition to cancer treatment Eloxatin in the U.S., or any benefit from the possible acquisition of Genzyme, the company said in its only reference to Genzyme in the quarterly earnings statement.

Investors are awaiting results from networking giant Cisco Systems (CSCO) due after the close today. Analysts are looking for Cisco to report EPS of $0.35 per share. In particular, analysts will be looking to see if CEO John Chambers joins other executives who are becoming more upbeat about the global economy.

Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) and BP (BP) are planning to close and sell refineries in the United States and Germany due to declining demand for fuels like gasoline, Bloomberg reports.
In earnings news:
--Alpha Natural Resources (ANR) reports Q4 EPS of $0.27, vs. Street estimates of $0.24 per share. Revenue was $993 million, better than expectations of $970 million.
--Coca-Cola (KO) reports Q4 adjusted EPS of $0.72, up 9% from the year-ago quarter and in line with the Thomson Reuters mean analyst estimate. Revenue of $10.5 billion tops the $7.5 billion seen a year ago. The Street expected $9.96 billion.
--Polo Ralph Lauren (RL) posted net income of $168 million, or $1.72 per diluted share, for the third quarter of fiscal 2011, versus net income of $111 million, or $1.10 per diluted share, for the same period in fiscal 2010. The Street view was $1.29 per share in earnings.’

Expanded Free Trade: Exporting Jobs [ When you come right down to it, this has been america’s most significant export. Indeed, this irrevocable structural shift, hailed by cia men hw bush and clinton (clinton couldn’t have survived without them) by way of NAFTA as the greatest thing since sliced bread was indeed in no uncertain terms condemned and warned against by Perot, a man of honor who, unlike his opponents, could not be bought, which is the reason, in pervasively corrupt america, he could never have been elected. Interestingly, you may have noticed the good (but not great, other than the spotlight on pervasive bribery including judges, police, politicians, etc., being far too light) the film ‘The Untouchables’ getting a wide re-airing of late, purporting to be a significant part of american folklore / history / culture. However, the reality is that in america, and certainly today, the real story with impact is that of ‘The Touchables’. The reality is that Elliot Ness died a broken man; bankrupt, unable to even win election to the mayoralty of his then current hometown. He was incorruptible; and hence, in the real america, unelectable at the least if not also all but unemployable (he and his are among those few genetic anomalies in america as I’ve previously alluded to. How far america has fallen from even false perception! Pervasively corrupt, meaningfully lawless america can’t even fake it anymore. See, for example, http://albertpeia.com/CIAAgentAffidavit1.jpg http://albertpeia.com/FBIAgentAffidavit11.jpg , and of course, corrupt legal / judicial processes, etc., Defacto bankrupt, fraudulent america also spends more on offensive (defensive a misnomer / propaganda) military spending than all the nations of the world combined, and by a large margin at that. Do you see a pattern emerging here [ I unfortunately only belatedly did, and the feds, fed employees, cia, all 3 branches of the u.s. government, etc., are included in this evolved american trait of inherent criminality in the most nefarious sense ( http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm ) ]:

CRIME STATISTICS > TOTAL CRIMES (MOST RECENT) BY COUNTRY SHOWING LATEST AVAILABLE DATA (america’s No. 1).

Rank

Countries

Amount

# 1

United States:

11,877,218

# 2

United Kingdom:

6,523,706

# 3

Germany:

6,507,394

The following youtube video is well worth the look and explains how and why the frauds on wall street have gotten away with their devastating fraud thus far. The frauds on wall street et als should be criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed. ( UPDATE: MORE CLAIMS OF RACE BIAS AT JUSTICE... CIVIL RIGHTS PANEL TO PURSUE FED PROBE IN BLACK PANTHER CASE... ex-Justice official quit over the handling of a voter intimidation case against the New Black Panther Party accused his former employer of instructing attorneys in the civil rights division to ignore cases that involve black defendants and white victims US v. AZ... Cases against Wall Street lag despite Holder’s vows to target financial fraud Obama broke promises ):

‘THE OBAMA DECEPTION’ http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eAaQNACwaLw&feature=PlayList&p=2EFAB57B44063742&playnext_from=PL&index=0&playnext=1. [ The Obama Deception Number 1 on U.S. Google Trends ]

‘The Obama Deception’ Censored ‘The Obama Deception’ has been censored In light of this development, I provide an archived site version which appears to be complete (but will be compared with earlier version and replaced with same if incomplete) http://albertpeia.com/obamadeceptionhighqualityversion.flv

Then there is the well researched, produced, and informative ‘ESOTERIC AGENDA’ which explains how we’ve gotten to this forlorn point: http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-7052400717834950257#

For the Same Reason I’ve Included Here a Web Site Archived FLV Version of Esoteric Agenda http://albertpeia.com/esotericagenda.flv

] Lounsbury ‘In January Steven Hansen observed that, through November, the trade deficit for manufactured goods was the equivalent of 1.3 million workers earning the median manufacturing wage in the U.S. Well, the trade deficit has been with us in a major way for nearly two decades. I am reminded of the 1992 presidential campaign where one of the three candidates, Ross Perot, argued against the adoption of NAFTA, The North American Free Trade Agreement. The other two candidates supported NAFTA.Perot is famous for his statement that a free trade agreement that was not a two way street would create a “giant sucking sound” of jobs going south to the cheap labor markets of Mexico. Both of Perot’s opponents (George H.W. Bush and Bill Clinton) argued that NAFTA would create jobs in the U.S. because of business expansion.However, the goods balance of trade for the U.S. with Mexico has been negative and steadily growing over the years. In 2010 it amounted to $61.6 billion, which was 9.5% of the total goods trade deficit last year.

So Perot has been vindicated in his opinion; expanded free trade has not been accompanied by an increase in jobs in the U.S. relative to the vast numbers of jobs created in the rest of the world as NAFTA became just a stepping stone on the pathway to global commerce.

Veronique de Rugy has produced a graph which shows how manufacturing output and manufacturing employment have varied over the years 1975 – 2010.

click to enlarge images

[chart]

The giant sucking sound actually started in 1980 as manufacturing employment peaked in 1979. The decline in employment in 1980-83 can be associated with the double recessions of that time period, which was also evidenced in the drop in manufacturing output. But when the recovery took hold, manufacturing resumed strong growth but employment gradually declined from 1984 to 2000, after which the decline accelerated.

Now, to be fair, not all the employment decline was due to increased employment overseas. Trade deficits remained fairly benign by 21st century standards. Employment declined significantly because of productivity improvements as more and more automation replaced manual labor. However, some of the decline was undoubtedly due to increased importation of goods to the U.S.

The rapid growth in the trade deficit for goods began in the early 1990s and we will start our detailed examination of the data with 1992, in deference to Mr. Perot.

Growth of the Trade Deficit for Goods

The first two tables show pertinent annual data. The table on the left shows the trade balance for goods. The table on the right shows the value of U.S. manufactured goods and manufacturing payroll employment.

[chart]

The sources for the data used in these tables are:

Productivity Improvement

In 19 years the value of U.S. manufacturing output has risen by 58% while manufacturing employment has declined by 31%. It only took 2.5 manufacturing employees in 2010 to produce what 5.8 employees produced in 1992. The dramatic improvement in labor productivity (and loss of jobs) is emphasized by the following graph.

[chart]

Jobs Equivalent to Manufactured Goods Trade Deficit

One cannot say that there is a U.S. jobs loss exactly equal to the trade deficit for manufactured goods. Here are some reasons:

  • The goods trade deficit may have led to a more favorable balance of exchange in other areas, for example in export of services. This would have produced more U.S. service jobs.
  • The trade balance deficit may have produced foreign investment in the U.S. that would not have otherwise occurred, creating domestic jobs.
  • The trade deficit may have actually increase demand for exports of goods still manufactured in the U.S.
  • Foreign employment may have been created for U.S. citizens that would not otherwise have occurred.
  • If the manufacturing had remained in the U.S. productivity gains might have been even greater than have been experienced.

However, it is not unreasonable to make the assumption that a significant portion of the manufacturing jobs equivalent to the trade deficit would have been created in the U.S.

The U.S. manufacturing jobs equivalence of the goods trade deficit is shown for each of the years starting with 1992 in the following table, along with the cumulative total. Hereafter we refer to the jobs equivalence as “jobs exported”.

[chart]

The jobs exported each year are shown in the following graph.

[chart]

The following graph shows that there have been a cumulative total of almost 29 million jobs exported over the past 19 years.

[chart]

Unemployment Today and the Counterfactual Labor Shortage

The total number of people employed today according to the latest BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) data is 139.3 million. If just half of the exported jobs were retained in the U.S., there would be about 153 million employed. The current civilian labor force is only 153 million so there would be no slack in the labor force at all. However, the labor participation rate has fallen from 67% in 2000-01 to 64.2% today. If the participation rate returned to 67% the civilian labor force would be 160 million. With 153 million employed the unemployment rate would be 4.4% and we would be complaining of labor shortages.

The Sweet Spot

If only some, even less than half, of the manufacturing that has been outsourced had been retained in the U.S., it is likely that there would still be an emerging market boom, but there would not be the severe structural unemployment problem that exists today in the U.S. It seems, looking at these numbers, that where we are is not the result of doing a fundamentally bad thing. It could be argued that it is actually the result of taking a good thing too far. It seems we missed the sweet spot and simply botched a beautiful shot.

Free Trade is a very good thing, but free trade taken too far is destructive. Hard data shows why.

Related Article

USA Trade Deficit Exports 1.3 million Jobs by Steven Hansen’

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Drudgereport: Oil hits $101 again...
Paul Ryan confronts over Fed's purchases of debt...
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House GOP Targets Dozens of Gov't Programs...

CUT, CUT, CUT...
White House to Slash Heating Program for Poor…but still no pros of massive frauds on wall street which fines and disgorgement of would yield huge amounts to cover spending... [ Howard Davidowitz on the Economy: "Here Are the Numbers ... WE'RE BROKE!" 11-25-10 The U.S. economy "is a complete disaster," Howard Davidowitz declared here in July, the most recent in a string of dire predictions from Tech Ticker's most entertaining guest.On the eve of Thanksgiving, I asked Davidowitz if he had any regrets, or was ready to throw in the towel given recent signs of economic revival. Are you kidding me? "Here are the numbers...we're broke," Davidowitz declares, noting the U.S. government goes $5 billion deeper into debt every day and is facing $1 trillion-plus annual deficits for the next decade. "In other words, we're bankrupt."As with the economy, Davidowitz is unwaveringly consistent in his views on President Obama, calling him "deranged, dysfunctional and discredited."Results of the midterm election show "the people of this country think we are in a catastrophe," he says. "I'm with them."Check the accompanying video for more of Howard's unfettered opinions and stay tuned for additional clips from this interview. And...Happy Thanksgiving! Aaron Task is the host of Tech Ticker. You can follow him on Twitter at @atask or email him at altask@yahoo.comTimid Tuesday: Is it Safe? Davis ‘… This is how we pay off our current debts and I think bondholders are simply happy to get anything out of a country that admits it owes $15Tn (1/4 of global GDP) but probably owes closer to $60Tn (entire global GDP) in the form of unfunded liabilities. The funniest thing about this (and you have to laugh) is to see Conservative pundits get on TV and talk about how we need to cut $100Bn worth of discretionary spending to "fix" this (while continuing to spend $1Tn on the military and $1Tn on tax cuts for the top 1% each year). There is no fixing this and even a Republican said you can’t fool all of the people all of the time. THIS HOUSE OF CARDS IS TEETERING FOLKS – PLEASE BE CAREFUL OUT THERE! ‘ ]
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SAUDIS TOLD OBAMA 'NOT TO HUMILIATE MUBARAK' [ Sounds like they’re hearing footsteps…Previous: Egyptian capital teeters on anarchy Mubarak asks cabinet to resign as anti-regime protests intensify (Washington Post) [ Mubarak should have been looking in the mirror as he asked his cabinet to resign … 30 years is a long time, and coincidentally, time for him to go. In Egypt: Access denied (Washington Post) [The day part of the Internet died: Egypt goes dark [I disagree! Part of the internet didn’t die, but rather the order to so darken the nation heralded the demise, at 30 years and counting, of the so-called leadership in the persona of Mubarak. Time for him to go! After all, he’s been in a position, with Egypt among the only Mideast nations to have signed a peace treaty with israel, to have stepped up with substantial credibility in taking a strong position against israeli transgressions, violations of international law / u.n. resolutions, war crimes, etc., which beyond soft-touch, he failed to do. And, of all places, he sends his family to Orwellian england; he still loves those colonial masters … how pathetic. I mean, 30 years … how free-flowing does anyone think the election process is at this point … and one could ask the same regarding the entrenched powers that be in pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt america, to be fair. Then there’s saudi arabia; talk about do nothing hypocrites. How does one family claim ownership of all the oil reserves of a sovereign nation; I suspect only when foreign corporations say so. The only Mideast nations showing backbone are Turkey, Lebanon, and Syria, and, of course the perennially propaganda painted bad-boy Iran among possibly some of the smaller emirates, ie., Qatar, etc., (I lack sufficient information regarding these other nations). ] (AP) Internet cutoff fails to silence Egypt protests (AP) - AP - In its effort to silence protesters, Egypt took a step that's rare even among authoritarian governments: It cut off the Internet across the entire country. Mubarak fires Cabinet, defends army’s efforts Sat, 29 Jan 2011 00:20:58 GMT Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak dismisses his Cabinet, calls on the army to help put down rising potests... Egypt's Mubarak sends in army, resists demands to quit (Reuters) - 1 hour agoReuters - Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak refused on Saturday to bow to demands that he resign after ordering troops and tanks into cities in an attempt to quell an explosion of street protests again... ] Embattled leader's move falls far short of demands that he give up his 30-year authoritarian rule, leave the country and permit fresh elections. ]

Debt relief for states proposed (Washington Post) [ I’ve heard of the ‘blind leading the blind’, but the ‘bankrupt borrowing from the bankrupt’ seems to be a nouveau american phenomenon destined for ‘clichedom’. Previous: Governors plan painful cuts amid budget crises (Washington Post) [ This truly is a disaster in the making, with consequences even more dire than the grim outlook set forth by Meridith Whitney, if that could even be fathomed. It’s really going to be all that bad…see infra, The Economic Collapse, ‘#10 The municipal bond crisis could go “supernova” at any time. Already, investors are bailing out of bonds at a frightening pace. State and local government debt is now sitting at an all-time high of 22 percent of U.S. GDP. According to Meredith Whitney, the municipal bond crisis that we are facing is a gigantic threat to our financial system….

“It has tentacles as wide as anything I’ve seen. I think next to housing this is the single most important issue in the United States and certainly the largest threat to the U.S. economy.”

Former Los Angeles mayor Richard Riordan is convinced that things are so bad that literally 90% of our states and cities could go bankrupt over the next five years…. ‘ ] Governors across the ideological spectrum are embracing the politics of austerity in a desperate effort to balance the books. ] Proposal would ease financial burden on many state governments in the wake of the recession.

At CIA, mistakes by officers are often overlooked (Washington Post) [ Duuuh! I want to know of even one thing that’s not overlooked concerning those incompetent mental cases at the cia; from assassinations, to illegal drug dealing, to illegal arms sales, to corruption, to disinformation, etc., to america’s and the world’s (ie., those WMD’s in Iraq, etc.) substantial detriment. See also, ie., http://albertpeia.com/CIAAgentAffidavit1.jpg http://albertpeia.com/FBIAgentAffidavit11.jpg , and of course, corrupt legal / judicial processes, etc., Defacto bankrupt, fraudulent america also spends more on offensive (defensive a misnomer / propaganda) military spending than all the nations of the world combined, and by a large margin at that. Do you see a pattern emerging here [ I unfortunately only belatedly did, and the feds, fed employees, cia, all 3 branches of the u.s. government, etc., are included in this evolved american trait of inherent criminality in the most nefarious sense ( http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm ) ]:

CRIME STATISTICS > TOTAL CRIMES (MOST RECENT) BY COUNTRY SHOWING LATEST AVAILABLE DATA (america’s No. 1).

Rank

Countries

Amount

# 1

United States:

11,877,218

# 2

United Kingdom:

6,523,706

# 3

Germany:

6,507,394

The following youtube video is well worth the look and explains how and why the frauds on wall street have gotten away with their devastating fraud thus far. The frauds on wall street et als should be criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed. ( UPDATE: MORE CLAIMS OF RACE BIAS AT JUSTICE... CIVIL RIGHTS PANEL TO PURSUE FED PROBE IN BLACK PANTHER CASE... ex-Justice official quit over the handling of a voter intimidation case against the New Black Panther Party accused his former employer of instructing attorneys in the civil rights division to ignore cases that involve black defendants and white victims US v. AZ... Cases against Wall Street lag despite Holder’s vows to target financial fraud Obama broke promises ):

‘THE OBAMA DECEPTION’ http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eAaQNACwaLw&feature=PlayList&p=2EFAB57B44063742&playnext_from=PL&index=0&playnext=1. [ The Obama Deception Number 1 on U.S. Google Trends ]

‘The Obama Deception’ Censored ‘The Obama Deception’ has been censored In light of this development, I provide an archived site version which appears to be complete (but will be compared with earlier version and replaced with same if incomplete) http://albertpeia.com/obamadeceptionhighqualityversion.flv

Then there is the well researched, produced, and informative ‘ESOTERIC AGENDA’ which explains how we’ve gotten to this forlorn point: http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-7052400717834950257#

For the Same Reason I’ve Included Here a Web Site Archived FLV Version of Esoteric Agenda http://albertpeia.com/esotericagenda.flv

]

Four charged in 'brazen coverup' of insider trading (Washington Post) [ 'The alleged conspirators "lacked a mobster's better-honed instinct for conversational discretion," said Janice K. Fedarcyk, head of the FBI's New York field office.'... Isn't that the truth; not like the big mobsters at goldman sachs, et als, who were well connected with plenty of juice and whose hard drives, conversations, etc., seemed never to make it to the crosshairs of real scrutiny, though any such prosecution of even the small fries like these wall street frauds should be welcomed, but with a sense of bewilderment as to how the aforesaid biggest frauds have yet to be prosecuted for the largest fraud in the history of this world with the consequences of their fraud 'now marked to anything' as they cashed out(that legislated FASB rule change / accommodation /complicity). ] Hedge fund manager allegedly tells colleague: Go to the office and shred "as much as you can."

Humility on the Nile Will: Maybe America's finally realizing the limits of its influence abroad. (Washington Post) [ I believe the power of Mr. Will’s article is twofold: First, that humility thing for america and the concomitant limits of american influence abroad. Like no other time in america’s short-lived history, america has a lot to be humble about. Afterall, america is defacto bankrupt, pervasively corrupt across all institutions whether they be governmental / judicial / private, and literally crime-ridden with crime rates exceeding by large margins those of other so-called civilized / tier one nations. Moreover, much like america’s commander(s) in chief, wobama the b (for b*** s*** - and war criminal bush), words are belied by actions / misdeeds. Indeed, the propping up of corrupt / criminal / oppressive regimes and the war crimes accompanying destruction and taking of innocent lives are facts lost on no one in this age like never before of ubiquitously available information which renders america’s once formidable propaganda machine now impotent in relative terms.Truth / reality works against america in every way. Second, and as important is that former global dichotomy that Mr. Will references; viz., the cold war and communism versus non-communism. No such simple lines now exist, nor can they be drawn owing to america’s failure, corruption, and meaningful lawlessness on so many levels and with such negative consequences. ]

This is that unmentionable reality as I alluded to earlier on close scrutiny of the data, ‘that stock prices have been manipulated to the upside beyond any and all rational basis‘ and as I previously wrote: Perception vs. Reality: Four Reasons to Remain Cautious on U.S. Equities [ Hey, Abbott … That’s Lou Costello calling him from the other side … Wake up! … Just kidding … but I’m not kidding when I say that contrary to Abbott’s view, infra, if you’re not a successful market timer you should rethink your position as an equity investor. Moreover, in contradistinction to Mr. Abbott’s implication, if you’re not a successful speculator (there are very few), you should rethink your position as a short seller: reason…, you could be wiped out, lose more than your principal, forced to cover (that’s why the same is considered a contrary market indicator, particularly in these manipulated, contrived markets). When I did my MBA thesis (1977, NYU, GBA, Eve.Prog., Finance), a review of the data revealed even then (and much more so now with computer programmed market manipulation) that the market remained biased / propped up (artificially, especially now with computerized manipulation) to the upside for far longer periods of time than for the downside which meant that dollar-cost averaging (through regular, periodic investment, for example), meant you were accumulating shares at higher prices generally for longer periods of time skewing the average cost to the upside (dollar-cost-averaging in declining markets was ok if analysis / forecast saw resurgence based on fundamentals - now absent – which is timing, as even senile wall street / gov’t shill Buffet would attest, that ‘greedy when others are fearful thing’). Abbott discusses perception which is the psychological factor involved in security evaluation / analysis; but investors need not and should become nuts themselves, particularly when as now, the inmates are running the asylum. ] Abbott ‘Perception determines short-term market movements. The difference between perception and reality determines the direction of major market trends. Though I generally try to avoid making macro prognostications, I believe bottom-up analysis can be informative about the current level of stock prices. I want to share what my recent work tells me about where stocks are (and where they might be headed). I will outline some various nuggets of collective wisdom that are taken for granted right now by stock bulls, and I will attempt to demonstrate how reality is likely to differ from these perceptions.

First, a disclaimer. This is not a market timing call. At all times, I stay away from market timing predictions. I think that's a loser's game in the long run. Even if I'm correct about the discrepancies between the following perceptions and realities, there's no saying when people will change their minds or shift their focuses. That said, let's dive in.

Perception vs. Reality #1
Perception: Low Interest Rates, Questionable Bond Outlook Means Stocks are Attractive
Reality: Interest Rates Are Being Artificially and Deliberately Manipulated

It's no secret that the Federal Reserve's low interest rate policy and quantitative easing efforts have held interest rates very low for very long. However, when people talk about stock market implications of bond yields, they rarely mention the fact that bond yields are artificially low. In an unmanipulated market, bond prices and stock valuations should be related, but I regard that connection as highly dubious right now. Investors who say that stocks deserve higher multiples (lower earnings yields) because bond yields are so low may well be setting themselves up for disappointing returns/frustrating losses when bond prices normalize. Again, this isn't a market timing call, and yields may remain low for quite some time. But, eventually this discrepancy will correct itself, and stock performance is likely to suffer at that time.

Perception vs. Reality #2
Perception: Earnings Growth Has Been Strong and Will Remain That Way
Reality: Top-Line Growth Will Have to Pick Up; Cost-Cutting has Run Its Course

Earnings growth has certainly been robust, but much of the strength has come from companies running lean cost structures and wringing as much efficiency as possible out of their employees and their assets. Though the recession has ended, the economy is not yet healthy enough to fuel strong sales growth. Companies can only boost profits by cutting costs and increasing productivity for so long. Therefore, top-line growth will have to play a larger role going forward than it has over the past 4-6 quarters. Whether or not economic growth is strong enough to drive revenue increases is unsure, but the current level of stock prices undoubtedly assumes it is. Any stagnation of the recovery and concomitant sluggish sales will likely hit stock prices.

Perception vs. Reality #3
Perception: European Debt Crisis Drives Short-Term Volatility, but It's Not a Long-Term Concern
Reality: Crisis May Be a Harbinger of What's to Come in the U.S. if States, the Feds Don't Improve Balance Sheets

So far, turmoil in Greece and Ireland has served only as a temporary headwind to U.S. stocks. In keeping with the investment world's increasingly short-term focus, people seem more concerned with what fiscal crises in Europe mean for U.S. stocks over the coming days and months than with what they might mean down the road. I believe that this interpretation misses the mark. Since the U.S. fiscal situtation is generally considered to be stronger than that in many European countries, U.S. federal and municipal debt issuance has been relatively smooth, and interest rates have only risen modestly. If the U.S. doesn't get serious about its fiscal woes, eventually the crisis will arrive on American shores. There's no way of telling when this might happen, but the current level of stock prices seems to imply that it never will.

Here's the problem with that. To fix the federal balance sheet and/or to improve state and municipal balance sheets, legislators will have to raise taxes and/or cut spending. Tax hikes and spending cuts both reduce consumer spending. This hurts growth. There's no way around this. Stocks can certainly continue to rise for some time, but austerity will be bearish if/when it comes. If it doesn't come, we're in for a much bigger crisis some time down the road.

Perception vs. Reality #4
Perception: Everywhere You Look, You See Good Companies at Cheap Prices
Reality: It's Hard to Find Genuine Bargains, but There are Intriguing Short Prospects Everywhere

There is no shortage of stock market commentators who claim that they see bargains everywhere they look. Perhaps I'm not looking in the right places, but I've been having a difficult and increasingly impossible time finding good companies at reasonable prices. I use similar criteria to assess long and short investments, and I find intriguing shorts in lots of sectors right now. This tells me that valuations are stretched. Certainly they can become more so before we get a selloff, but every day that stocks rally, they get more expensive.

I've written on Seeking Alpha about a number of stocks which I regard as expensive (CRM, OPEN, GMCR), and take my word for it: there are plenty more than these whose shares I do not want to own at present levels. A few weeks ago, I also mused about the Facebook-Goldman deal and argued that this valuation is indicative of excessive investor enthusiasm. Bargains are hard to find, and as valuations go up, so does positive sentiment. While this is not a prediction of an impending correction or bear market, it is a message of caution for people who think stocks are cheap right now.

All that said, I always try to consider both sides of any investment issue, and there are some reasons for optimism. Job growth has shown signs of improvement, and some economic data have been increasingly (though not uniformly) positive. The Federal Reserve remains accommodative, and I'm skeptical about whether or not there is political will for austerity. For these reasons, stocks could continue onward and upward. That said, I see too many reasons for caution, and investors are turning a blind eye to these concerns as their complacency rises.’



Go to following pages for above links:
http://www.albertpeia.com/currentopics2ndqtr10108.htm
http://www.albertpeia.com
http://www.albertpeia.com/alresume.htm

http://www.albertpeia.com/wallstreetlunacy2ndqtr10108.htm

http://www.scribd.com/alpeia

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