Al Peia's Blog: September 8, 2010 posts

Business / Economic / Financial

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Bad Math - Why The Bullish Case Doesn't Add Up Simon Maierhofer, On Wednesday September 8, 2010, 3:19 pm EDT
1+1=2 2+2=4
The simplicity and accuracy of those calculations is undeniable. How about this equation? Fundamental Weakness + Technical Sell Signals + Overpriced Stocks = Lower Stock Prices. This calculation also seems to be simple and accurate. Let's look at some equations that don't make sense.
1+1=3 or Better Earnings = Higher Stock Prices
Earnings season is over. Most companies beat earnings but issued cautious forecasts. This is particularly true of the tech (NYSEArca: XLK - News) and financial sectors (NYSEArca: XLF - News). By large, profits are still driven by cost-cutting, not organic growth. Retail sales, which make up about one third of the economy, continued to fall after the second quarter ended. Additionally, the expectation that taxes will go up might have moved some companies to pull some of next year's income into this year. This can't be good for Q3 and Q4 profits. As we've seen in January and April of 2010, positive earnings reports are not bullish for stocks, especially if future guidance is weak.
2+2=5 or Weaker than Expected Economy = Rising Stock Prices
On July 30, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) lowered the Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GD) growth from an estimated 2.7% to 2.4%. On August 27, the Q2 GDP was lowered further to a jaw-dropping 1.6%. But it didn't stop there. The real GDP for all three previous years was revised as well. It was lowered by 0.2% for 2007, it was lowered by 0.6% for 2008, and it was lowered by 0.4% for 2009. In percentage terms, the real GDP for 2007 was revised down from 2.5% growth to 2.3%. The 2008 decrease was lowered from 1.9% to 2.8% and 2009 growth was revised up from a 0.1% to a 0.2% increase. In essence, the BEA proved that the recession was (or is) much deeper than perceived and the alleged recovery much weaker than previously reported. This comes as no surprise, as the key sector of the financial debacle - real estate (NYSEArca: IYR - News) - remains in a funk. The U.S. Census Bureau reported that the number of vacant properties, including foreclosures, residences for sale, and vacation homes, reached 18.9 million. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac continue to lose money. Has anyone ever wondered how banks (NYSEArca: KBE - News) can make money on the same kind of loans that pushed Fannie and Freddie to the brink of ruin? Since bad real estate loans triggered the post 2007 economic meltdown, how can the economy recover without real estate leading the way?
3+3=7 or Positive Analyst Estimates = Higher Stock Prices
A recent Associated Press article observed that 'analysts only seem to hit the mark with their estimates in the strongest economic times (2003 - 2006).' Why? 'The problem is that analysts get most of their information from the companies they cover. Corporate managers have every incentive to stay positive for as long as they can.' Is that true; as true as 1+1=2? On April 26, the day the S&P (SNP: ^GSPC) topped at 1,219, the Dow (DJI: ^DJI) at 11,258, the Nasdaq (Nasdaq: ^IXIC) at 2,535, Bloomberg reported the following: 'U.S. stocks cheapest since 1990 on analyst estimates.' Contrary to analyst estimates, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter stated that 'the potential exists that Monday's high marked a significant top.' Since April, the broad market dropped as much as 17%. In March 2009, with the Dow below 7000 and the S&P below 700, analysts lowered their earnings forecasts from $113 in April 2008 to $40. On March 2nd, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter sent out a Trend Change Alert and recommended to buy long and leveraged long ETFs such as the Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3X Shares (NYSEArca: FAS - News) and Ultra S&P 500 ProShares (NYSEArca: SSO - News).

If you care to know, until recently, analysts estimated that earnings for the S&P 500 will exceed their 2006 all-time high, in 2011. Based on that assumption, stocks are cheap. How about that for flawed math?
4+4=9 or Technical Sell Signals = Higher Stock Prices
The 200-day moving average (MA) is one of the best-known technical indicators, as it provides delineation between technically healthy and sick stocks. On May 20, the S&P closed below the 200-day MA for the first time since late 2007. Every attempt to rally and stay above it has since failed miserably. On July 2, the 50-day MA for the S&P dropped below its 200-day MA for the first time since late 2007. The same holds true for mid caps (NYSEArca: MDY - News), small caps (NYSEArca: IWM - News) and nearly all individual sector indexes. For good reason, this is called a Death Cross. Over the past ten years, the death cross has been accurate 75% of the time, with a 19.72% average return on six winning trades and 6.95% average return on two losing trades. [chart] In addition to the Death Cross, there are two head and shoulders patterns, one in the making for over 10 years, and the other has the breadth suggestive of a major meltdown (see September ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter).
5+5=11 or Overvalued Stocks = Higher Prices
As explained above, based on overly optimistic earnings estimates, analysts believe that stocks are cheap. Rather than basing a future outlook on estimates, it makes sense to use facts as a foundation for any outlook. Why add an extra variable to what's already an unpredictable market? Ask Yale Professor Robert Shiller, who's done extensive research on the subject of valuations, and he'll tell you stocks are historically overvalued based on the current P/E ratio. Compare today's P/E ratio with the P/E ratio seen at major market bottoms, and you'll see that stocks are overvalued by more than 50%. Another gauge that doesn't lie is dividend yields. A company's dividends are a direct reflection of cash flow and financial health. The current yield is 2.65% for the Dow and 2.05% for the S&P. Dividends are close to their all-time low set in 1999 (we know what happened then). This means that companies are cash strapped and overvalued. Looking at a long-term chart of dividend yields plotted against stock prices shows clearly that markets don't bottom until dividends skyrocket. Just as ice doesn't thaw unless the temperature moves above 32 degrees, the economy won't thaw and show signs of life unless P/E ratios drop to, and dividend yields rise to, levels seen at major market bottoms. The ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter includes a detailed analysis of four valuation metrics, along with short-term target ranges for stocks and the ultimate market bottom. Based on simple math and common sense, the July lows are certainly in danger. But it doesn't stop there.

Report From Europe: Panic Amongst the PIIGS (Seeking Alpha – The Mole) [ Sounds far from hunky-dory to me and as the wall street frauds would have you believe and used as a rallying point this day. Total b*** s***! ] ‘U.S. stocks fell for the first time in five days Tuesday, ending the longest streak of gains for the S&P 500 Index since July, on concern the European debt crisis may worsen and hamper global growth. Bank of America (BAC) and Citigroup (C) fell at least 2% as European banks slid on concern stress tests understated potential losses from sovereign debt. Meanwhile ConocoPhillips (COP) and Chevron (CVX) slumped more than 1.2% as crude oil fell the most in a week. But Oracle (ORCL) rallied 5.9% after naming Mark Hurd, former chief executive officer of Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) as president. Today, despite some token buying by the ECB and a decent Portuguese bond auction, the bond vigilantes have again been out doing their worst pushing the Irish / German 10 year spread out to levels not seem since 1988 when the debt GDP ratio was 118% . Indeed yesterday saw the worst single daily performance by Irish Government bonds ever in terms of spread widening. Greece is also back in the crosshairs in response to a downward revision to Q2 Greek GDP to -1.8% from -1.5% originally, and on news the National Bank of Greece plans to raise Eur2.8 bln of capital. The latter may be especially alarming in the current environment, but really reflects a desire for extra security and also a cash hoard to potentially spend on weaker rivals. ATEbank stands prominently in this respect. (picture)
Today’s Market Moving Stories
The stand-out mover in FX today was GBP, which rallied sharply, largely it would seem on news that Vodafone (VOD) has sold its stake in China Mobile and intends to use 70% of the proceeds (£4.2bn) to fund share buybacks. The macros community had started to build GBP shorts in recent days and this M&A flow prompted a flurry of short-covering, assisted as well by better than feared Halifax house price data.
Irish Banking
According to the Irish Times this morning, the bank’s chairman has stated that a statement on Anglo should be expected today. Who will make it or what the nature of the announcement will be is not evident, but keep eyes peeled around 4pm. Recent media reports have indicated strongly that an orderly wind down of the bank over 10-15yrs is the new preferred option. But what the markets are really looking for is an update on the total FINAL bottom line kitchen sink cost of the bailout and whether its closer to Eur 25bn or S&P’s recent & much criticized Eur 35bn figure. UPDATE – SEE VERY BOTTOM OF THIS POST. Bloomberg reports that private equity heavyweight J.C. Flowers and three other bidders for Ireland’s EBS Building Society may buy and merge several lenders to create a new competitor to the country’s biggest banks, two people familiar with the situation said. J.C. Flowers., the U.S. buyout firm, Dublin-based Cardinal Asset Management, backed by U.S. private equity firm Carlyle Group, and Doughty Hanson & Co. are vying with Irish Life & Permanent Plc (ILPMF.PK) to take control of EBS, said the people who declined to be identified. Each of the bidders said in talks that they plan to merge EBS, the country’s biggest customer-owned lender, with other building societies. That would create a new rival to Bank of Ireland Plc (IRE) and Allied Irish Banks Plc (AIB), the country’s biggest lenders. EBS and the National Treasury Management Agency, which is overseeing the sale, will probably select a preferred bidder or two short-listed bidders next week, according to one of the people.
Japan
Japanese Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda said he is prepared to take “bold” action on currencies, including intervention in foreign-exchange markets, after the yen reached a 15-year high against the dollar. “We will take bold action if necessary and naturally that can include intervention,” Noda told lawmakers in parliament today. “We have to use every option available as a strong yen is likely to have a severe impact on companies.” The yen rose to 83.52 per dollar yesterday, the highest level since June 1995, as concerns about weakening growth in the U.S. and Europe bolstered the currency’s appeal as a refuge.
UK Outlook
A U.K. index of hiring for permanent jobs in August showed the slowest growth pace in 10 months, KPMG LLP and the Recruitment and Employment Confederation said. The gauge of full-time job placements dropped to 56.3 from 60.2 in July, the groups said in an e-mailed report today in London. That’s the slowest pace since October. Readings above 50 indicate an increase in hiring. The U.K. is bracing itself for a period of austerity as Prime Minister David Cameron pledges to reduce the country’s record budget deficit. U.K. shop price inflation accelerated in August as the price of food rose at the quickest annual pace in over a year, a survey showed Tuesday. Total shop price inflation was 1.7% on the year in August and 0.1% on the month, compared with a 1.5% annual rate and 0.1% monthly decline in prices in July, the monthly survey by the British Retail Consortium showed. That was due to a more-than-one percentage point rise in the cost of food. Food prices were 3.8% higher in August than a year earlier, while food prices rose 0.2% from July. And July’s UK industrial production figures suggest that the manufacturing sector continues to enjoy steady, if unspectacular, growth. The 0.3% rise in manufacturing output was the third such gain in a row and pushed the yoy rate of output growth up to a new cycle high of 4.9%. Overall industrial production saw a similar monthly gain. For now, then, the output data are defying the rather gloomier tone of some of the recent industrial surveys, such as last week’s CIPS report on manufacturing. But it is worth remembering that the surveys normally lead the hard data by a few months, so it would be no surprise if output growth were to start to weaken over the next few months. And even if output posts similar increases in August and September, industry won’t make as strong a contribution to GDP growth in Q3 as it did in Q2. Overall, UK industry is still doing pretty well, but it may not last too much longer. (picture)

Company / Equity News

UK homebuilder Berkeley Group has issued an interim management statement this morning covering the period from 1st May 2010 to 31st August 2010. The group pointed out that demand for properties over the period has been resilient, particularly in London which has a shortage of supply and specific demand from international purchasers. Outside of London, which is more reliant on the UK domestic economy, a lack of credit availability and weak consumer confidence is weighing on transactions currently.
Barratt Developments also reported full year results this morning. The group reported a full-year loss of £118.4m compared to a loss of £468.6m. Market expectations were for a loss of £125m. Revenue declined by 11% to 2.04bn with the group selling 11,377 homes during the period, compared with 13,277 last year. The group’s operating margin increased to 5.9% from 1.8% a year earlier. The group expects a ‘modest’ increase in average selling price this year, however the group noted that the outlook for new housing ‘remains challenging’. For clients looking for exposure to a UK home builder, Persimmon is my preferred play.
Securities firms (investment banks) around the world will cut as many as 80,000 jobs in the next 18 months as revenue growth begins to slow, said Meredith Whitney, the former Oppenheimer & Co. analyst who now runs her own firm. The reductions, about 10 percent of current levels, will come after 2010 compensation payments. “The key product drivers of Wall Street’s revenues and profits over the past decade have been in a structural decline over the past three years,” Whitney said in the report. “2010 marks the first year in many in which Wall Street-centric firms will go through structural changes.”
Vodafone’s $6.6 billion sale of its stake in China Mobile Ltd. is the biggest divestment since Chief Executive Officer Vittorio Colao took charge in 2008. Investors want to know what’s next. Vodafone sold its 3.2 percent stake in China’s largest mobile phone company today. About 70 percent of the proceeds will be returned to shareholders through a stock repurchase and the rest will be used to pay down debt, Newbury, England-based Vodafone said in a statement yesterday.
Nokia Oyj, the world’s biggest maker of mobile phones, has a lot riding on its annual showcase event next week as it tries to claw back lost ground to Apple Inc.’s (AAPL) iPhone and devices based on Google’s (GOOG) Android software. The Finnish company is likely to focus attention at Nokia World in London on its high-end Symbian smartphone line, including the touch screen N8, its latest effort to take on Android and iPhone handsets.
Google’s CEO Eric Schmidt said the company plans to extend its Web television service from U.S. viewers to global consumers in 2011. Google has an agreement with Sony Corp. (SNE) to launch Web TV in the U.S. this fall, while Samsung Electronics Co. (SSNLF.PK), the world’s largest television manufacturer, said today it may make sets run by Google’s software to compete with Sony and Apple Inc. in the market for TVs that access movies, shows and games online.
The life of Germany’s nuclear power plants will be extended by up to 15 years under a deal agreed between energy companies and the government of Chancellor Angela Merkel. Germany’s energy giants will pay [euro]15 billion to fund research into renewable energy and Berlin will, in return, set aside a 2000 agreement forced by the Schroder government to wind down all nuclear energy plants by 2025.
According to the FT, Ryanair (RYAAY) may return to the market for a purchase of up to 300 airplanes, the Financial Times said late Tuesday, citing an interview with chief executive Michael O’ Leary. O’Leary told the FT his company also plans on writing to aviation authorities asking to use a single pilot for short-haul flights, the report on the FT website said.
Evidence emerged yesterday that the strained relations of late between Tullow (TUWOY.PK) and the Ugandan Government over the issue of tax arising from the Heritage Oil transaction eased somewhat based on comments attributed to the Energy Minister. Questioned on the Government stance regarding the recently rescinded Kingfisher licence in Block 3A and Tullow’s ability to redress the situation, the Energy Minister appeared to soften the Government position indicating a favorable response should Tullow apply.
Dana Petroleum (DNPXF.PK) offered a strong defence this morning against the unsolicited offer of £18 per share from the Korean National Oil Company (KNOC) and also announced the widely anticipated acquisition of Petro-Canada’s UK assets for a cash consideration of £240m ($372m).

And finally UPDATE – Text of announcement on Anglo Irish
The Minister for Finance today briefed his Government colleagues on the strategic options for the future of Anglo Irish Bank. The Minister conveyed to the Government the views of the Board of Anglo Irish Bank, the Central Bank, the National Treasury Management Agency, the Department of Finance, the EU Commission and his own assessment of the position.The Government decided that Anglo Irish Bank will be split into a Funding Bank and an Asset Recovery Bank. Anglo Irish Bank has not expanded its loan book since it was nationalised in early 2009 and this will remain the case. It is intended that in due course the Recovery Bank will be sold in whole or in part or that its assets will be run off over a period of time. The guaranteed position of depositors will be unchanged by the new arrangements and no action is required of them as a result of today’s announcement. The depositors will become customers of the Funding Bank which will be fully capitalized and continue as a regulated bank. In order to restore the reputation of the Irish Financial System it is essential to bring finality to the problem of Anglo Irish Bank – our most distressed institution. The Government’s primary objective in dealing with Anglo Irish Bank has been to minimise the cost of this distressed bank to the Irish taxpayer. The Board of Anglo Irish Bank submitted its preferred option to the Minister and to the European Commission at the end of May for consideration under State Aid rules. The board’s plan envisaged splitting the bank into an asset management company and a new good bank. The asset management company would have managed out over time the bank’s lower quality assets remaining after the transfers to NAMA. The new good bank would have managed the remaining share of the loan book, retained the bank’s deposit funding and sought new lending opportunities to grow the bank. The Minister acknowledges the good faith and hard work of the board in producing a credible proposal for the future of the bank. However, the Government has concluded that this plan in its current form does not now provide the most viable and sustainable solution to ensure the continued stability of the Irish banking system.
Resolution Proposal
In these circumstances, the Government has decided to opt for a variation of the board’s restructuring proposal. The Government’s decision does not affect existing guarantee arrangements. Under the restructuring plan, the Funding Bank will be a Government-backed/guaranteed specialist deposit bank which will contain the bank’s deposit book. It will be a stand-alone, regulated bank, completely separated from Anglo’s loan assets and it will be owned directly by the Minister for Finance. This bank will not engage in any lending, but will provide a secure home for Anglo’s depositors and any new customers who wish to deposit their funds with it. Depositors with the Funding Bank will be completely insulated from the future performance of the rest of the current Anglo Irish Bank loan book. The Asset Recovery Bank will also be a licensed regulated bank. Its dedicated focus will be on the work-out over a period of time of the assets not being transferred to NAMA in a manner which maximises the return to the taxpayer.
Costs
The Government believes that it is essential to identify, with as much certainty as possible, the final cost for the restructuring and resolution of the bank. This will underpin international financial confidence in Ireland. Accordingly, the Central Bank will determine the appropriate levels of capital needed in both institutions. Its decision will be announced by October.
EU Commission
The Department of Finance has conducted intensive discussions with the EU Commission in recent weeks about the future of Anglo Irish Bank. The Minister for Finance met Commissioner Almunia last Monday to discuss the issue. A formal detailed plan is being prepared for submission to the Commission for approval.
The Minister said: “Today’s decision by the Government will provide certainty about the future of Anglo Irish Bank. Resolution of this, our most distressed institution, is essential to the promotion of confidence and stability in our financial system.”
8th September 2010
ENDS
Brian Meenan
Press Office
PH: 6045875
email: brian.meenan@finance.gov.ie ‘

Here Are 13 Signs That We’re Actually In A Depression Right Now Gregory White | David Rosenberg has outlined, in his latest letter, the 13 reasons with this so-called recovery is actually a depression… David Rosenberg has outlined, in his latest letter, the 13 reasons with this so-called recovery is actually a depression.Rosenberg sums it up like this:

This is what a depression is all about — an economy that 33 months after a recession begins, with zero policy rates, a stuffed central bank sheet, and a 10% deficit-to-GDP ratio, is still in need of government help for its sustenance.

So Broke We Can’t Pay Attention Howard Beale | You spent the whole day yesterday worrying about today, and now that it’s here, was it worth it?

The Financial Industry Is A ‘Gigantic Parasite’ We Don’t Need Anymore Vincent Fernando | Strong words from ex-Morgan Stanley Andy Xie.

(9-8-10) Dow 10,387 +46 Nasdaq 2,229 +20 S&P 500 1,098 +7 [CLOSE- OIL $74.67 (-54% for year 2008) (RECORD TRADING HIGH $147.27) GAS $2.74 (reg. gas in LAND OF FRUITS AND NUTS $3.11 REG./ $3.26 MID-GRADE/ $3.35 PREM./ $3.69 DIESEL) / GOLD $1,258 (+24% for year 2009) / SILVER $19.79 (+47% for year 2009) PLATINUM $1,553 (+56% for year 2009) / DOLLAR= .78 EURO, 83 YEN, .64 POUND STERLING, ETC. (How low can you go - LOWER)/ 10 YR NOTE YIELD 2.65% …..… AP Business Highlights ...Yahoo Market Update... T. Rowe Price Weekly Recap – Stocks / Bonds / Currencies - Domestic / International This Is a Secular Bear Market and The End of Buy and Hold … and Hope MARKET MANIPULATION AND HOW THE LATEST BUBBLE-FRAUD PRE-COMING CRASH IS BEING ACCOMPLISHED 3-11-10 6 Theories On Why the Stock Market Has Rallied 3-9-10 [archived website file] Risks Lurk for ETF Investors The bull market that never was/were beyond wall street b.s. when measured in gold Property Values Projected to Fall 12% in 2010 Jan 31, 2010 The Week Ahead: Risk Is Off the Cliff; Unwind Has Begun Jan 31, 2010 01-13-10 Forecast for 2010 from Seeking Alpha Contributor THE COMING MARKET CRASH / CORRECTION 1-28-10 Maierhofer (01-15-10) 11 Clear Signs Economy Sinking Economic Black Hole 1-22-10: 20 Reasons Why The U.S. Economy Is Dying And Is Simply Not Going To Recover Current Economic / Fiscal Charts Trendsresearch.com forecast for 2009 1-7-10 Crash is coming! ‘WORST ECONOMIC COLLAPSE EVER’ Must Read Economic / Financial Data This Depression is just beginning The coming depression… thecomingdepression.net MUST READ: JEREMY GRANTHAM’S QUARTERLY UPDATE 25 January 2010 (850 on the S&P) by TPC The Next Wave of Collapse is Coming Sooner than you think Sliding Back Into the Great Depression ABSOLUTELY, ABSURDLY, RIDICULOUS! SELL / TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME!

Beige Book Picture Shows Growth Slowing, Stocks Down From Highs

Fidel Castro says Cuban model doesn't work (AP) Fidel Castro told a visiting American journalist that Cuba's communist economic model doesn't work.

Deflation Never Had A Chance What the deflationists fail to acknowledge is that in a purely fiat monetary system deflation is a choice not an inevitability. To put it in simple terms, if a government is willing to sacrifice its currency there is absolutely no way deflation can take hold in a modern monetary system.

There Are Now Enough Vacant Properties In China To House Over Half Of America On the assumption that each flat serves as a home to a typical Chinese family of three (parents and one child), the vacant properties could accommodate 200 million people, which account for more than 15% of the country’s 1.3 billion population.

Drudgereport: BLIAR BUSTED: Former UK PM's autobiography includes dialogue from meeting with 'Queen' -- taken from fiction movie! Developing...REV: THE BURNING WILL PROCEED...
'Meant to Be a Warning'...
Vatican: 'Outrageous'...
NYPD: 'Dangerous'...
Holder: 'Idiotic'...
Clinton: 'Disgraceful'...
Palin: 'Unnecessary provocation'...
FBI: Retaliation 'Likely'...

Petraeus Speaks Out on Quran Burning...
Endangers Troops...
Pastor Says Church Not Deterred...
Hartford City Council meetings to begin with Muslim prayers...
2 SOLDIERS KILLED IN IRAQ, 9 WOUNDED

ADDICTED TO STIMULUS: $50,000,000,000 MOREDems wary of WH's huge new spending plan...
Obama takes aim at Boehner... 'They talk about me like a dog'… [ If the shoe fits ... President Obama calls African-Americans a ‘mongrel people’ President Obama waded into the national race debate in an unlikely setting and with an unusual choice of words: telling daytime talk show hosts that African-Americans are “sort of a mongrel people.” ]

'They talk about me like a dog'...
FLASHBACK: President-Elect Obama: Mutt 'Like Me'... 'Even liberal elites concede that Obama's presidency is crumbling'...
BARONE: Sinking with Obama, Democrats plan political triage...

Muslims Protest Plans to Burn Quran...
'Death to America'...

Fears rise as EU nations aim to raise borrowing... Roubini: More than 400 US Banks Will Fail...

'COMBAT OVER': US TROOPS BATTLE IN BAGHDAD...

Why the Furious Bear Will Come Back - Simon Maierhofer, On Tuesday September 7, 2010, 4:34 pm ‘The Top Ten List has become a staple of David Letterman's Late Show. We don't quite have the space to discuss ten reasons why the bear market isn't over (if we did, we'd probably put you to sleep), but we'll take a crack at a Top Five List. Without further ado, here it is:

#1: Forget About Earnings

Using past earnings numbers to project future performance is like basing your Roulette bet on the numbers that won previously… [chart]

#2: Budget Deficits

The 2011 U.S. deficit projection for 2011 was raised from $1.2 trillion to $1.4 trillion...

#3: Banks - Nothing but Fluff

…Fundamentally, however, nothing had changed… 'The house of cards was much bigger and started to stretch beyond Wall Street…The government postponed the collapse of the 'whole deck' thus far. As of recent, however, some disturbing information has surfaced. Bank of America admitted to hiding bad assets and Goldman's 82% profit drop shows that the days of fat trading profits - such as seen in Q3 and Q4 2009 and Q1 2010 - are over… It doesn't take an economist to know that taking money from your savings account and transferring it to your checking account can't be counted as income.

#4 Real Estate

In late July, the market allegedly rallied because new home sales jumped 24% to 330,000 units in June. We feel the urge to put this number into perspective. May sales were revised from an original 300,000 units to 267,000 units - this is an all-time low. Bouncing off from the lowest level on record, new home sales did indeed increase 24%. Is that reason to celebrate though? Chances are the 330,000 will be revised lower in the future. Regardless, 330,000 homes sold pales in comparison to the 1.4 million homes sold in 2005.The U.S. Census Bureau reported that the number of vacant properties, including foreclosures, residences for sale and vacation homes, reached 18.9 million. It shouldn't be too long before those bleak fundamentals are reflected in the performance of real estate ETFs like the iShares DJ US Real Estate ETF (NYSEArca: IYR - News) and SPDR DJ REIT ETF (NYSEArca: RWR - News). ..

#5: Consumer Confidence

During periods of economic expanse the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index has averaged a reading above 100. Recessions average a reading of 71. The current confidence reading is at a dismal 50.4. The chart below paints this sad picture. [chart] Consumer spending is said to make up about three quarters of the economy. How can the economy recover without participation by the consumer? It can't. That doesn't mean stocks can't rally temporarily. Such a disconnect between the economy and Wall Street's dream world tends to be short-lived.

Sentiment Confusion

… More importantly though, the optimism surrounding the April highs is indicative of a major market top, a top that implies a decline much deeper than the 20% we've seen thus far. This conclusion is certainly supported by the above-mentioned Top Five list and many other indicators…

‘We are still determined’: U.S. pastor vows to carry out Burn-a-Koran day on Sept 11 despite death threats As Gerald Celente said on the show today, General Petraeus’ comment that burning the Koran could upset Muslims is the height of hypocrisy. Did Petraeus ever consider the notion that bombing and occupying their countries also wouldn’t go down too well? This whole issue is about manipulating us into a helter-skelter race war as a distraction from the economic collapse and to rally the country around another war in the middle east.

NYPD Top Cop: Planned Quran Burning Is “Dangerous” [ I personally wasn’t going to comment on this and let others draw than own conclusions; especially, as pointed out by Celente, when america’s been bombing and killing civilian muslims in droves, based on lies, and even for drug trade pre-eminence, etc.. After all, it’s not too difficult to dredge up memories of other historical book-burners, ie., that Austrian house-painter with a brush mustache, etc.. But really, isn’t this guy jones a neo-con dream come true? I think he’s just a publicity seeking, mentally unbalanced dummy. He even looks a bit like john bolton. But, in america, mental unbalance has become the new normal. ] Police Commissioner Ray Kelly sided with Gen. Petraeus last night, calling a planned burning of Qurans on the anniversary of Sept. 11, “unwise” and “un-American” during the 9/11 Museum and Memorial’s fundraising dinner at Cipriani Wall Street in Manhattan Tuesday night.

TSA Plans to Use Homeboy in Ball Cap “Avatar” on Naked Body Scanners Kurt Nimmo | Scheme ignores the obvious health risk of radiation technology.

9/11 Truth is Still the Issue James Corbett | Where does the 9/11 Truth Movement stand and where it is heading?

50 Mind Blowing Facts About America That Our Founding Fathers Never Would Have Believed The Economic Collapse | The United States is a much different place today than it was in 1776, and unfortunately many of the changes have been for the worse.

Al-Qaida and Taliban threat is exaggerated, says security thinktank Guardian | Strategy institute challenges idea that troops are needed in Afghanistan to stop export of terrorism to west.

Rioters Attack LA Police Station After Death of Immigrant New York Daily News | Hundreds of demonstrators took to the streets for the second night in a row in downtown Los Angeles Tuesday night to protest the police shooting of a

Petraeus: Neocons favorite general Russia Today | Ten Afghan civilians were killed Thursday in a NATO air strike on three vehicles carrying civilians, President Hamid Karzai said in a statement.

Obama infrastructure proposal may hit election year wall (Washington Post) [ It has nothing to do with the election at this point, although the motivations for same are suspect. It’s really a matter of political capital; and wobama has NONE! Zero! Zed! Nada! He’s totally and unequivocally, DONE! ] What seems virtually certain is that the proposal for initial spending of $50 billion on planes, trains and automobiles most likely will wait until next year.

Obama to unveil more stimulus, tax breaks for business (Washington Post) [ It really is quite astounding how quickly the tides have changed against wobama. The amazing thing is that as president he had the easiest act in the world to follow; viz., dumbya bush. He blew that royally. How? Why? Make no mistake, wobama is as over as over can be. Even his dem compatriots are saying of this desperate act … too little, too late. And yet, this truth is seen from their limited perspective only with regard to the election, when in fact, this is as true economically as it is long-term for the nation. All he had to do was what he said he would do; and, that especially applies to the self-destruct, ill-advised ramped up war spending in Afghanistan. Wobama is undoubtedly the biggest b* s* artist in the history of this nation and really bought his own failure by not remembering what got him elected in the first instance in terms of popular vote (the ultimate source of electoral victory a point for reflection in light of ever more evident quid pro quos, ie., no wall street prosecutions, ramped up war spending, etc..]

To consumer advocates, antitrust enforcement lacking (Washington Post) [ Unfortunately, at least for those who still care, america’s long past the glory days of the trust-busters. In fact, america’s long past the days of any meaningful law at all. See infra, RICO Summary to FBI Under Penalty of Perjury, which includes how sam alito as u.s. attorney parleyed cover-up and obstruction of justice et als into fed.ct.appeals and u.s.supreme court lifetime appointments. The corruption’s incredible but very real. ] The Justice Department's antitrust division has yet to exercise its signature power: to bring a case against a corporate titan suspected of abusing its dominance.

Pearlstein: The bleak truth about unemployment (Washington Post) [ When I saw this headline I felt certain that Mr. Pearlstein would be discussing the reality that the real unemployment rate exceeds 20% with that ‘stopped looking’ fudge factor removed as merely a convenient subterfuge. But, alas and lamentably, I was wrong. To be sure, Mr. Pearstein’s topic is important and probably more optimistic than anyone deserves to be in light of some grim realities that most dare not mention with the defacto bankrupt nation just barely surviving on that wonder drug called hopium (see infra, DeCiantis: ‘Students of behavioral finance must have had a field day this past week. In the wake of a month of dismal economic reports, Wall Street got its risk on with a few better than expected reports on manufacturing sentiment, home sales, and employment. Hopium, it appears, is a powerful drug. [ HOPIUM … YEAH! I KIND OF LIKE THAT METAPHOR WHICH RINGS TRUE! ] ). As for Mr. Pearlstein’s ‘how to make the american economy competitive again.’, I liken this Gordian knot of a problem to one for which magic mushrooms, along with hopium, are as far as reality will permit in terms of even imagining such could possibly be the case. You cannot unring the bell on the irrevocable structural changes wrought by the greediest, most corrupt, and, though often wrapped in the flag, treasonous, lawless elements of american society; governmental, quasi-governmental, and private business (which included the necessary technology transfers). That’s reality! ]

September: In Like a Lion, Out Like a Lamb DeCiantis: ‘Students of behavioral finance must have had a field day this past week. In the wake of a month of dismal economic reports, Wall Street got its risk on with a few better than expected reports on manufacturing sentiment, home sales, and employment. Hopium, it appears, is a powerful drug. [ HOPIUM … YEAH! I KIND OF LIKE THAT METAPHOR WHICH RINGS TRUE! ]

Economists spent August cautiously lowering their outlook for the second half of the year as Obama's "recovery summer" failed to bear fruit, the Federal Reserve failed at both of its twin mandates (stable prices and full employment), and bullish analysts failed to convince investors that the market was ready to climb to fresh highs. As a result, stocks ended the worst August in nine years with rising calls for stimulus and fears of the dreaded double-dip.

Then came September. In like a lion, surging nearly 3% on the first trading day of the month on the heels of a better-than-expected survey by the Institute for Supply Management of the manufacturing industry. Representing (statistically speaking) nearly 30% of the US economy, the number was expected to fall after a series of similar Fed surveys from around the country indicated that American heavy industry -- that engine of growth over the last two quarters -- was finally loosing steam. Instead, it leapfrogged every estimate on The Street to post its first advance since May. Granted the rise was modest, but the surprise factor flipped the all-important risk switch and a reinvigorated camp of bulls poured back into the market, convinced that their creeping suspicions about a slip back into recession were all just a bad dream.
[chart]

Outside of a few trading irregularities, the data itself forced the bears to take pause and reflect on the substance of the report. The economics team at Goldman Sachs may have summarized it best:

"Without question, the report was better than expected...[but] the details of the report actually reinforce the case for further slowing in this sector. As shown in Exhibit 2, the gap between the indexes for new orders and inventories, an important lead indicator of movements in the composite index and in industrial production, almost disappeared in the August report. As recently as May, this gap was a robust 20.1 index points. The clear—if uneven—downward trend in this indicator actually strengthens the case for a decline in the composite index in coming months. The bottom line: US manufacturing output may still be expanding, but the risk that these goods are winding up on the shelf has increased."

More telling, however, was the dissection by semi-permabear David Rosenberg that helps to put the August print into context:

In a nutshell, ISM did smash consensus expectations in August but the composition left much to be desired. The coincident indicators firmed but the categories that actually lead manufacturing activity softened across the board.

As we said at the outset, the ISM index was at complete odds with the regional surveys. Philadelphia, New York, Milwaukee, Richmond and Kansas City were all down. Dallas and Cincinnati were up. In the past, when we had a 5-to-2 ratio to the downside, the share of the time ISM managed to eke out an advance was 4%.

It would be wise to lean against the market's initial dramatic reaction to this data. The ISM orders/inventories ratio is a decent leading indicator and it sank to 1.033x from 1.065 in July. 1.278x in Julne and 1.441x in May. The hidden nugget in today's report is that this ratio has decline to levels not seen since February 2009. And the last time it fell this fast to this type of level was in the September to December 2007 period (1.03x from 1.30x) when once again, there was tremendous confusion and intense debate over whether it was a recession/soft patch in the economy and the bear market/corrective phase in equities.

Suffice it to say that in the past 30 years, with eleven observations, ISM dropped to 47x in the three months after such a decline in the orders/inventory ratio to such a low level as is the case today. That is the average, the median, and the mode. The highest ISM reading three months hence was 51.9, so if past is prescient, today's data was likely a huge headfake.

[chart] The ISM report also overshadowed another important data release on construction, but we'll get to that later. The next feather in the bulls' cap was a pair of data points on residential real estate -- the sick dog of nearly every major developed economy in the G8. The first revealed a rise in July pending home sales (5.6%) after a precipitous drop in May (30%) and a further drop in June (2.6%) as an $8,000 tax credit expired. Analysts collectively expected a drop of 1%. Needless to say the markets were pleasantly surprised.

A closer look at the data reveals two key narratives not captured by the popular media or trading desks. First, it's important to contextualize the "rise" in pending sales by looking at a longer time series that tells the same story (this particularl series only goes back to 2005). The graph below speaks for itself.

[chart]

Second, the reported data may suffer from a disease common to many of the economic statistics released every day: Seasonal Adjustment Disorder (SAD). Given the inherent seasonality of the home buying cycle (higher during the summer when kids aren't in school, lower in winter when the weather is less than ideal for moving) economists at the National Association of Realtors make adjustments for these factors to make monthly comparisons easier. However, that can sometimes mask changes in the raw data, as was the case with the August NAR release. As Rosenberg suggests:

While the increase in pending home sales is encouraging, we did dig through the data and found that the not seasonally adjusted numbers (the raw numbers) fell by 7%, with declines across the country. This makes sense as July is usually a slower month for homebuying activities.

We wonder if there is a chance that the seasonal adjustment factors could be overstating the monthly increase given that we have seen such huge volatility in the housing numbers in the recent year making the seasonal adjustment process more difficult. Recall that Standard and Poor’s issued a note about the Case-Shiller home price index saying that “the turmoil in the housing market in the last few years has generated unusual movements that are easily mistaken for shifts in the normal seasonal patterns, resulting in larger seasonal adjustments and misleading results.

Another data point that drew a lot of bullish attention was Tuesday's housing release on prices. After a few dismal years, any news that isn't a decrease is more than welcome by just about everyone, rich and poor, domestic and international. Tuesday's Case-Shiller print was no exception, as home prices "jumped"...by a mind-numbing 1%...two months ago in June... on a rolling three-month basis (i.e. April through June).....still reflecting the last dying gasp of the home buyers' tax credit. Again, a little context:

[chart]

And how the markets rallied.

Friday's bulls, reinvigorated after a powerful (and low volume) start to the month, launched their attack on a new front: employment. Long a forgotten weapon in the bulls' arsenal, private payrolls climbed by a larger-than-expected 67,000 in August, beating expectations for a 45,000 gain. At that rate, it would only take a little under 9 years to rehire the 7,000,000 people who lost their jobs during the recession but have yet to find new work (assuming no increase in population). Only 7,000 permanent government jobs were shed during the month, though economists expect that number to rise as state and local governments face crippling budget deficits. The other 114,000 new claims represent the last major layoff of temporary census workers, who rejoin an army of job seekers that have collectively become one of America's most structural economic challenges.

[chart]

Obviously plenty of reason for the markets to celebrate.

Now for the bad news.

On the same day as the ISM Manufacturing survey was released to considerable fanfare, July's construction spending was released by the Census Bureau and confirmed a worsening year-over-year decline of nearly 11%. Month over month, spending was down 1% in July and suggests another downward revision to third quarter GDP.

More from Goldman:

Construction outlays dropped 1% in July from a level that was revised down a whopping 2.7%. This dismal construction report flew below the market's radar, as it normally does since it usually comes out alongside the ISM manufacturing survey. One might dub construction outlays the Rodney Dangerfield ("I don't get no respect") of US economic indicators. Of all the data released this week, it has the most direct bearing on the real GDP "bean count" next to the monthly consumption report. Hence, since consumption was only modestly better than expected, a case can be made that third-quarter growth might actually be lower now than we thought a week ago despite all the upside surprises.

[chart]

Wednesday also revealed that another source of bullish sentiment in July may have been a little premature: auto sales. After months of steep retail incentives and easy year-over-year growth comparisons, cash- and credit-strapped Americans returned to a more cautious consumption path. As the second largest leveraged purchase in a typical household, auto sales reflected that shift. Only Chrysler, the runt of the litter, managed to squeak out an increase in sales in an otherwise sluggish retail environment.

[chart]

Finally, on Friday the latest ISM Non-Manufacturing survey was released and was every bit as disappointing as everyone expected the manufacturing survey to be. The index slowed to 51.5% in August from 54.3% in July and 55.4% in May, and its components were even less rosy. From Econoday:

A new optimism after today's jobs report -- not so fast. The ISM non-manufacturing report shows broad and deeper-than-expected slowing. New orders at 52.4 are down more than four points in August for the slowest rate of month-to-month growth so far this year. Employment, which in this report includes government workers, is signaling contraction, at 48.2 for a nearly three point decline for the worst reading since January. The composite headline index at 51.5 is down exactly three points for what is also the worst reading since January. Backlog orders are basically flat, export orders are down, deliveries are showing less delays, and general business activity is slower. Imports did rise as did raw material prices.

[chart]

In response, the market cut its morning gains in half, only to rally into the close to retest the morning highs. What makes this week's schizophrenic ISM interpretations so dangerous is that the upside surprise on Wednesday was based on data that captures roughly a third of the economy, while Friday's non-manufacturing disappointment approximates activity in roughly two-thirds of the economy. So of course the markets ended the week up 3%.

Once again, Goldman's analysts try to walk a fine line between sell-side optimism and buy-side skepticism:

On the whole, it's been a good week for US economic data...reports on factory activity, pending home sales, and the labor market have surprised to the high side. In fact, some of these readings have benefited from positive judgmental adjustments, as factors not readily apparent in the headline indicator have also been better than expected. However, this does not mean that the outlook for US economic activity has improved, except insofar as the better-than-expected news eases market worries about a "double dip". At least some - perhaps most - of the improvement ... reflects what Paul Krugman once called, in a much different context, "The Age of Diminished Expectations". In the current setting, we note that several prominent forecasters have marked down forecasts of economic activity and therefore may also have lowered their sights on the higher frequency indicators.

Interpretive bias is inevitable when any new data is released. Optimists will quickly find a silver lining in any dark cloud, and pessimists will pick apart even the most robust reports of growth and tease out a bearish narrative. Investors should think twice when these competing forces fall out of balance -- when markets are as unabashedly bearish as they were in late 2008, or as unapologetically bullish as the were during the second half of 2009.

If the first few days of September are any indication of how the month will unfold, we may be back on the perma-bull track. When disappointing data is released, investors cheer for more fiscal and monetary stimulus. When data is surprisingly positive, investors cheer at the prospect of a sustainable, organic recovery. As we saw in early 2010, this "heads I win, tails you lose" mentality is particularly vulnerable to rapid and substantial correction, and a September that entered as a lion may finish the third quarter as a lamb.

Disclosure: Long safety, short risk (no specific stocks mentioned)’

Correlation and the S&P 500 [ I really think this author was a bit too diffident in talking about the computerized churn-and-earn scam which eats away at the real economy , but the discussion highlights at least this immense problem area ] ‘The immense correlation between the market, and almost all risk assets on Earth is not a new subject to FMMF readers. [Jun 30, 2009: Bloomberg - Correlation Among Asset Classes Highest Ever] I beat this dead horse monthly, mostly out of abject frustration. [Sep 2, 2010: Why Bother with Individual Stocks in the Perfectly Correlated Market?] I don't have an issue when the market is up 2-3% or 90% of stocks move in the same direction, it is all these days the market is up or down 0.7% when it drives a person nuts.

Friday, for example, every position I had but one was up. As I type this every position but one is down.

This correlation madness started to become an issue in 2007 as we were told that hedgies control 40%(ish) of each day's trading volume. As I said then, since mutual and pension funds are relatively staid players, the 'fast money' is the marginal buyer, and 'hot money' in the form of hedge funds - especially of the quant variety - are the marginal buyer. The problem now is they seem to be the only buyer as equity fund withdrawals continue on pace as the retail guy floods into bond funds.

So we have a market dominated by computers trading to computers, all using related algo's - happy, happy, joy joy. Now we hear things such as 60-70% of trades flow through these players... and since EFTs are the weapon of choice, computerized trading of EFTs have taken over the market. [Jun 29, 2010: Correlations Among Asset Classes Reach Ever Higher Extremes as HAL9000 Algos Dominate Life] The SPY ETF is now about 9% of ALL volume as of last check, and we had a time about 7-8 months ago where Citigroup (C), AIG (AIG), Fannie (FNMA.OB), and Freddie (FMCC.OB) were 40% of all volume. Pathetic.

Frankly, it makes the market a frustrating and 'less fun' place. The market used to be a four-dimensional jigsaw puzzle, comprised of fundamental, technical, psychological, and 'animal spirits.' Now it's just the dumbed down two-dimensional Etch a Sketch. Shake it at 4 pm every day, because it has no memory from day to day. Sure you can adjust (in fact you must adjust) if you plan to stick around, but when everything is a 1:1 correlation, it simply reduces the market to 'stoopid' and coming in each day, checking your brain at the door, and staring at the S&P 500 chart trying to guess where it will be in 3 hours, 3 days, and 3 weeks gets to be boring. [Jul 15, 2010: WSJ - Correlation Soars on S&P 500 Shares]

But this is the ~~casino~~ market we have built, and I don't see anything changing anytime soon. The other issue is it makes it so much more difficult to outperform the market. Surely there are a handful of stock names that still outperform (or underperform) but with almost everything swaying in the exact same direction as the market, creating alpha is difficult. Most of the performance nowadays is not about stocks, but due to calling turns in the greater market - increasingly hard to position for as you scale in size. Especially when the majority of the turns are due to binary reactions to economic reports or Fed announcements - it's simply placing your bets on red and black, not a stock market.

I've written about said frustration in the past amongst the "human" hedgies, [July 8, 2010: Hedge Funds "Frozen in Headlights" as BiPolar Market with 1:1 Correlation in All Things Not Named U.S. Treasuries Causes Confusion] and this is taking a toll on the mutual fund managers as well.

One of my big beefs with the mutual fund industry is that many players - especially in the bigger funds - are closed index funds. They all have super cool names but almost anything in 'large cap value' or 'large cap growth' were hybrid closet indexers. They basically flip an Exxon (XOM), Intel (INTC), or a Microsoft (MSFT), with a Walmart (WMT), Verizon (VZ), or a Cisco Systems (CSCO) -- change the order, weighting, and indeed are able to charge a nice fee for doing nothing other than being the S&P 500 with a small twist. I cannot tell you how many 401k plans I reviewed for people, where I went to look at the top 10 holdings of the 12-15 mutual fund choices and 90% of them were identical (just in different order in weightings!). The statistic of 0.99 correlation amongst the S&P 500 and many of the largest funds is quite remarkable and points to my 'closet index' beef, but with the mechanics of our new paradigm market, it has taken it to a whole new level. It also says a lot of people are wasting their money paying management fees for what is an S&P 500 ETF clone.

That said, even with the closet index situation that has been growing for a decade+ you used to be able to try to outperform if you plied your trade in small or medium caps (or international markets), but the HFT + EFT = GLEE environment we now live in has made that increasingly moot, since most of those stocks now move in unison as well. If your stock is not in a major EFT it generally sits ignored with low volume... if it IS in an ETF than it doesnt matter the company specifics - as long as the algo's are buying (or selling that ETF) as flavor of the day, every component in that ETF is a winner (or loser)! Stoopid is as stoopid does in the market with 1st grade logic.

One gentleman I've admired for many years is Will Danoff at Fidelity Contrafund. [Sep 9, 2008: Will Danoff in Kiplinger Magazine] His fund has been huge in size for years on end (I'm talking multiples the size of the biggest hedge funds - Contrafund is now up to $62 BILLION), yet he has been able to somehow outperform his peer group (and until the past 5 years the S&P 500) by a wide margin, mostly by being somewhat contrarian. This despite holding many positions and not being extremely concentrated - a feat I find quite remarkable since once you start owning 200-250 positions I don't know how you can beat the market over time. (Contrafund owns 445 positions as of last quarter!) Danoff is highlighted in this piece, which is why I mention him - he is no dummy.

Via Bloomberg:

Fidelity Investments’ William Danoff, the stock picker who led the Contrafund to benchmark- beating returns, isn’t looking very contrarian these days. Danoff’s $62 billion Contrafund, which seeks to beat the market by picking stocks whose value hasn’t been fully recognized, has tracked the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index more closely this year than in any year during its four-decade history.
“Danoff usually finds ways to go against the grain, but these days there isn’t much that’s contrarian relative to the macro theme,” Adviser Investments’ Lowell said. “This is a trendless market and it’s not providing him any room to break away from the S&P 500.”
Investing abroad hasn’t helped stock pickers like Danoff because correlation has shot up even between regions.
Danoff isn’t alone. Six of the 10 largest U.S. stock funds show correlations of 0.99 this year, meaning they moved almost completely in sync with the market. Managers are struggling to stand out and attract new money as fear of another crisis prompts investors to move in and out of markets without discriminating between securities, industries or geographies.
Robert Doll, BlackRock Inc.’s chief equity strategist, said while stocks moved in lockstep before, this is the longest he has seen correlation persist across markets. “We were expecting 2010 to be the year when stock selection would add value, but that hasn’t been the case.”
Doll says even the most high-quality stocks have been hurt among a larger sell-off in risky assets. “We’ve scratched our heads many times during this year as the macro picture is driving everything,” Doll said. “It can be frustrating along the way, but we’re just focusing on the fundamentals and eventually we’ll get paid for it.”
The correlation between the U.S. equity benchmark and its individual members was 0.81 in the 50 trading days through July 7 and has since remained close to that level. That’s almost twice the historical average of 0.45 over the past 30 years.
The increase in correlation is making it difficult for actively managed funds to beat their benchmarks and produce better returns than lower-cost index products. “You can’t pick any mutual fund, even if has previously been a winner, and expect it to outperform in this market.”
Mohamed El-Erian, the chief executive officer of Newport Beach, California-based Pacific Investment Management Co., says investors have a “risk-on/risk-off” attitude that leads to sometimes “violent” swings, such as the sell-off in markets worldwide on Aug. 11, after the Federal Reserve indicated that the economic recovery had lost momentum. “We were particularly struck by the size and correlated nature of the market moves,” said El-Erian.
Correlation may be linked to the increased use of exchange-traded funds and index funds in the stock market, especially those that focus on particular industry groups, said Brian James, co-director of equity research at Boston-based Loomis Sayles & Co. Assets in U.S. ETFs have grown to more than $821 billion from $608 billion at the end of 2007, according to Investment Company Institute. “It is almost axiomatic that if you have an increased presence of single-purpose ETFS and futures traders, it moves stocks in one direction,” said James.
Correlation has been particularly pronounced for companies with larger market capitalizations, and for the larger funds. James said that 90 to 95 percent of large-capitalization stocks have tended to move in the same direction this year, up from about 70 percent prior to the 2008 financial crisis.
The largest U.S. stock fund, the $148 billion Growth Fund of America, has seen correlation increase to 0.99 this year, from 0.84 in mid-2008. For the $37 billion Dodge & Cox Stock Fund, run by San Francisco-based Dodge & Cox, the correlation measure was also 0.99 this year, compared with low of 0.81 prior to the height of the crisis in late 2008.

Disclosure: None’

Obama seeks $100 billion business tax credit (Washington Post) [ All just monopoly money now! And, of course, pre-election talking points as war spending ramps up in Afghanistan. Sounds like … uh … uh … plan? Bankruptcy plan? `Drudgereport: MORGAN STANLEY: Government Bond Defaults Inevitable …` ]

Economic events for this week (Washington Post) [ Well, I’ll stick with nobel prize winner Krugman (infra) among other similar dire but realistic forecasters who, beyond the spin and fake market-frothing data (especially so close to the mid-terms) have a track record of being right when everyone else was ebulliently wrong, mr. fraudulent-wall-street-glass-half-full-though-empty. ] After a busy week of economic data, this one should be quieter, offering the Federal Reserve's compilation of anecdotal information on the job market and new details on trade.

Obama defends policies and offers new proposal (Washington Post) [ No you can’t wobama … b*** s*** everyone again! ‘Yes, we can … NOT!’ That dog don’t hunt anymore wobama. Drudgereport: Obama takes aim at Boehner... 'They talk about me like a dog'… [ If the shoe fits, wobama … keep gearing up Afghanistan … sounds like a plan]... ]Faced with twin challenges of boosting the economy and saving congressional seats, the president tries to do a little of both on Labor Day.

Krugman: It's All Downhill From Here Cullen Roche Love him or hate him Paul Krugman has been awfully right with regards to the macro picture in the last few years. He’s one of the rare economists who had the foresight to see the housing bubble and the likelihood of economic downturn that would result from it. Krugman recently caused a stir when he said the US economy was headed for the third depression. He isn’t back down from that outlook:

I’ve had a couple of conversations lately with people who follow politics and public affairs, but aren’t that close to the economic discussion — and I’ve discovered that there are two comforting delusions still out there.

Delusion #1 is that we’re on the road to recovery, just more slowly than we’d like; to be fair, the White House keeps saying this.

But it’s not at all true. GDP is growing below potential; employment, even if you focus just on private employment, is growing more slowly than the working-age population. If you ask how long it will take us to return to, say, 5 percent unemployment on the current track, the answer is forever.

Delusion #2 is the belief that the stimulus may yet do the trick, because there are still substantial funds unspent. I tried to deal with this last year. The level of GDP depends not on total funds spent, but on the rate at which funds are being spent, which has already peaked; GDP growth on the rate of change in the rate at which funds are being spent, which peaked last year. It’s all downhill from here.

If you can ignore the schizophrenic market for just a second it’s hard to reject Krugman’s macro outlook. The private sector has been running on fumes since the debt bubble burst in 2007. The government’s extraordinary actions helped bolster the economy, but merely papered over what was a very weak private sector. As we see the government step aside it’s difficult to imagine that the weakness at the private sector won’t again be exposed for what it really is.

Government Bonds: Can the U.S. Maintain Confidence in Its Debt? Cliff Kule Massive, unsustainable government debt - it's everywhere. Especially in America. At some point, will the world begin to lose confidence in America's growing debt? Will interest rates then skyrocket? Will a Greek-style crisis in U.S. government bonds then ensue? Is there any way out?

America can claim its debt problems are not as bad as some countries. But that ignores some important points:

See an interesting chart on how America's financial condition is worse than several other countries.
Even the most respected bond manager in the world, Pimco's Bill Gross, believes there are several countries including the U.S. whose financial ratios are in dangerous territory - the "ring of fire".
A loss of confidence in the U.S. dollar and U.S. debt could bring a "Greek-style" crisis to the whole world. Consider that the U.S. dollar has been the world's reserve currency since 1944; it has been accumulated by the whole world as a form of trusted and secure savings. There are trillions of dollars of U.S. government debt accumulated as reserve savings by banks around the world (see chart below courtesy of Hugo Salinas Price) and realize that most reserves are held as U.S. government bonds. A loss of confidence in the U.S. dollar and in the ability of the U.S. to service its growing debt could trigger an epic disaster. [chart]

Is there any way for America to maintain the confidence?

One way would be for America to become fiscally prudent, simply stop creating money and debt, let the massive deflationary forces of credit contraction and consumer de-leveraging run their natural course. This would cleanse the system of toxic debt. It would also clearly and immediately cause another Great Depression.

Another way would be for America to simply print more money, create more debt, blindly following Keynesian economics that brought us into this mess in the first place. Attempt to "inflate away" the debt without losing the confidence of investors that buy the U.S. government bonds. This has been tried many times throughout history with disastrous consequences.

The chart below (courtesy of Economic Edge) shows how increases in debt are recently giving less and less “umph” to economic GDP growth to the point now of negative GDP growth. Eric Sprott has produced an excellent study suggesting that 9 cents of "growth" is coming with every dollar we go deeper into debt. Bud Conrad has produced calculations that are equally discouraging. This massive debt-driven money printing would therefore likely lead some form of hyperinflation in a futile attempt to stimulate economic growth.

This leaves one other option.... a direction that is hardly ever considered... a policy tool still waiting to be tried!... America could return to the gold standard... Why? Because the gold standard system would back the U.S. dollar by real money, and enforce a responsible discipline of fiscal and monetary policy that Congress and the Federal Reserve cannot currently do. In turn this would maintain confidence in America's debt.

“The gold standard has one tremendous virtue: the quantity of the money supply, under the gold standard, is independent of the policies of governments and political parties. This is its advantage. It is a form of protection against spendthrift governments.” Ludwig von Mises (1881-1973)

Monetary systems on a gold standard system cannot increase money supply as needed. Under a gold standard system, paper money is backed by something of real tangible value. The total amount of gold limits the total amount of paper money that can be created. New money must be backed by additional gold. Omnis’ Jim Rickards suggests this possible solution: a “gold backed currency at a non-deflationary price… sound money leads to sound growth and the creation of real, not illusory, wealth.”

In 1971, President Nixon simply severed the tie between gold and U.S. dollars. As he closed the gold “window,” Nixon proclaimed “We are all Keynesians now” (referring to the Keynesian economic school of thought where gold has no function). Austrian School economists and Cliff Küle would like to say – We are not all Keynesians.

Did severing the link between the dollar and gold work to strengthen confidence in the U.S.? Please consider:

Within a generation of that move, the U.S. went from being the world’s largest creditor nation to the world’s largest debtor.
TIME Magazine of 1979 said:

Until the greenback is once again made as good as gold, many millions of people will persist in believing that the barbarous relic is still a better bet.

Recently speaking about Goldman Sachs’ problems at the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, former President Bill Clinton said,

There is a bigger problem here… too much of our growth was in finance ever since went off the gold standard.

The dollar “tie” to gold might be “re-tied” just as simply as it was untied. In a certain respect, America never really went off the gold standard. The tie between gold and U.S. dollar was simply adjusted to 0%. So, simply adjust it back. What tie would be needed today to restore America back to the gold standard? Let’s do the simple math.

Official figures for the total amount of gold reserves held by the U.S. Treasury are 8133.5 tonnes of gold. This gold is owned by all Americans and is held in trust by the government for the people. Given that 1 metric tonne is 32150.746 ounces, that amounts to:

8133.5 tonnes x 32150.746 ounces/tonne = 261498092.591 ounces

If we look at recent Federal Reserve data, we note that the total U.S. M1 seasonally adjusted money supply is at $1712.2 Billion of currency. Therefore if we were to take the total currency and back it by the total amount of gold, this would give:

$1712.2 billion divided by 261498092.591 = US$6547 per ounce

There you have it – if the U.S. were to devalue the U.S. dollar, setting gold at 6550 U.S. dollars per ounce of gold, the country could position to go back on the gold standard. Global confidence in the U.S. dollar and in America's debt would be maintained. It may be as simple as finding the right price for the government gold holdings to give "backing" to every dollar in circulation.

$6550/ounce is approximately the current value necessary to give "gold backing" to the current level of M1 money supply. If the U.S. wanted to expand the money supply further to stimulate the economy, it would need to set a new price for its gold holdings which is even higher than $6550/ounce or somehow get more gold. The U.S. could then be in a position to expand money supply as necessary to stimulate growth and able to extend credit to other nations. This is an essential ingredient to restoring confidence and keeping the title of reserve currency. After all, a reserve currency should be able to extend credit to nations in need, not be in need of credit from other nations.

As Jim Rickards states, this one-to-one ratio backing of gold with the U.S. dollar

would comfortably support a broader U.S. money supply on a one-to-one ratio and maintain confidence in the dollar and U.S. sovereign debt.

Perhaps only then could global confidence in the U.S. dollar and in U.S. debt be maintained – if not, either a deflationary depression or a hyperinflationary depression could be in store as confidence wanes with increasing levels of public debt.

Back to the Future

Nick Barisheff, President and CEO of Bullion Management Group, emphasizes that gold is money:

Gold is not and never has been a currency. Gold is something entirely different and far more valuable. It is money.

Cliff Küle suggests that to maintain confidence in its debt, America must bring back the gold standard, anchoring the U.S. dollar back to real money - gold, as Article 1 of the Constitution of the United States commits it to be.

Disclosure: No positions

Work Until You’re Dead? That May Be the Only Option for Many Americans Huffington Post | Given that the first wave of Boomers is scheduled to turn 65 in 2011, Attention Must be Paid.

Gold Could Double over Five Years – Headed Higher with Government Resentment: Holmes Gold has the potential to double within the next five years, and if governments stumble with their policies, it can go even higher, said Frank Holmes, CEO of US Global Investors.

As Americans Celebrate Labor Day 2010, U.S. Factories Are Closing In Droves Labor Day 2010 comes in the midst of a stunning wave of U.S. factory closings that stretches from coast to coast. Once upon a time America was the greatest manufacturing machine that the world has ever seen, but now it seems as though the only jobs available for working class Americans involve phrases such as “Welcome to Wal-Mart” and “Would you like fries with that?”

Burry, Predictor of Mortgage Collapse, Bets on Farmland, Gold Michael Burry, the former hedge-fund manager who predicted the housing market’s plunge, said he is investing in farmable land, small technology companies and gold as he hunts original ideas and braces for a weaker dollar.

Unemployment in U.S. May Rise Toward 10% on `Feeble’ Growth As Bob Chapman outlined on the show today, once the real figures that the U.S. Labor Department hides are factored in, real unemployment is over 21 per cent – approaching great depression levels.

Manipulation Of Money – David Icke David Icke explains how money is created out of fresh air and how debt is used to enslave us.

Globalism Destroys America: 10 Reasons Why The World Trade Organization Is Bad For The United States Economy In 2010, education has been so “dumbed down” in America that most Americans don’t even know what the WTO is, and even fewer understand why the WTO is important. The truth is that the World Trade Organization is essentially a global government for world trade.

Economists Herald New Great Depression The world is currently experiencing the modern day equivalent of the Great Depression, according to a prominent economist who has added his voice to scores of others now forecasting ongoing economic doom on a scale not seen since the 1930s.) , and my position and that of demographer Dent (This is a global depression. This is a secular bear market in a global depression. The past up move was a manipulated bull (s***) cycle in a secular bear market. This has been a typically manipulated bubble as has preceded the prior crashes with great regularity that the wall street frauds and insiders commission and sell into. This is a typical wall street churn and earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud as in prior crashes’. This national decline, economic and otherwise, will not end until justice is served and the wall street frauds et als are criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed.

Harry Dent, Jr. Economy will be in a Depression by 2011
The worst of this next depression is likely to hit between mid-2010 and mid-2013, especially around early 2011, but if the banking system continues to implode a deep downturn or depression could begin sometime in 2009 instead of 2010.
Dow will Fall to 3,800 – 4,500 by 2012
Nasdaq will Fall Below 1,100, its 2002 low, by late 2010 or mid-2012 at the latest.
Inflation will Increase until mid- 2010 and then turn to Deflation
Interest Rates will Increase
U.S. Dollar will Decline
Housing will Decline by 40 – 60% from Today’s Levels
Greatest Economic and Banking Crisis since the 1930s will Occur Between 2010 and 2012).

National / World

FBI Warns of Possible Terrorist Response to “Burn Koran Day” Kurt Nimmo | Violence expected in response to Koran burning demo in Florida.

Everything you need to know about the events in NYC We Are Change | To be sure everyone is keyed in on all details, we here in NYC decided to write up an extremely detailed schedule.

The Reckless Mess Created by The Fed Bob Chapman | The 3-card Monte game continues.

Exclusive: Internal FBI Memo: Government Bracing For Violence Over “Burn Koran Day” Infowars.com has received a leaked copy of an internal FBI memo warning of a possible terrorist response to “International Burn A Koran Day,” an event scheduled for the ninth anniversary of the September 11 attack to be held by the Dove World Outreach Center in Gainesville, Florida.

Condoleeza Rice: Everyone Thought Flight 93 Had Been Shot Down When United 93 came down Ms Rice and other officials believed it may have been shot out of the sky. Miss Rice added: ‘Everyone in that room thinks that perhaps it’s been shot down.’

The White House Attempts To Refute The Scariest Jobs Chart Ever You’ve certainly seen the chart that we’ve dubbed The Scariest Jobs Chart ever, which shows how meager the jobs recovery has been since the start of the recession, compared to other recessions.

Obama Did Create 3 Million Jobs — in China President Obama should be saying, “My economic stimulus plan has preserved or created 3 million jobs — in China.” He keeps leaving out the words “in China.” His plan is stimulating American demand for imports, not demand for American products.

Obama: Sounding Bush-like? David Swanson said President Obama sounded like he embraced all the lies about this war, including the falsehood about the surge which created “mythical success”.

Abortionists Kept Aborted Babies in Jars I used to think that the abortion industry were simply capitalists who allowed their greed to override their humanity. I used to think that maybe it was just feminism run amok and that cooler heads would eventually prevail. I used to think that pro-lifers were simply up against the extreme of secularized logic. Over the past few years though I’ve come to believe that it’s more than that. It’s worse than that. We’re immersed in a culture with a death fetish. Our fascination with death is boundless.

The Establishment Media Smear Machine Is Officially Dead Ashes to ashes, dust to dust. The establishment media smear machine is officially dead and buried. Rand Paul has extended his lead over Democratic opponent Jack Conway to a massive 15 points, proving that when the distrusted and discredited corporate media attacks anyone now, it actually increases their popularity.

Drudgereport: Petraeus Speaks Out on Quran Burning...
Endangers Troops...
Pastor Says Church Not Deterred...
Hartford City Council meetings to begin with Muslim prayers...
2 SOLDIERS KILLED IN IRAQ, 9 WOUNDED

'They talk about me like a dog'...
FLASHBACK: President-Elect Obama: Mutt 'Like Me'...

Muslims Protest Plans to Burn Quran...
'Death to America'...

Fears rise as EU nations aim to raise borrowing... Roubini: More than 400 US Banks Will Fail...

'COMBAT OVER': US TROOPS BATTLE IN BAGHDAD...

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http://www.albertpeia.com/wallstreetlunacy2ndqtr10108.htm

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Obama to call for $100B business tax credit (Washington Post) [ Just in the nick of time … riiiiight! … for the elections … you know, ‘talking points’ though of no economic effect … and to make america, only slightly more bankrupt ... at this point, who’s counting? ] Under mounting pressure to intensify his focus on the economy ahead of the midterm elections, president seeks to boost research and development

Afghan bankers' assets frozen (Washington Post) Authorities bar sale of properties held by principal owners, but freeze excludes Karzai's brother [ Yeah … don’t want to get him too angry … he’s too valuable to the heroin trade resurrected by america. ].

Small businesses feel squeezed by Obama policies (Washington Post) [ Well, the grim reality for them is that they just don’t pony-up those big campaign dollars like those non-performing corporate welfare recipient conglomerates / big businesses. The other reality, reiterated again here is that everybody’s on to the fact that wobama’s great at delivering speeches, albeit teleprompted, but as we now all know, he doesn’t deliver. It’s rather pathetic to see that old loser and jingoistic fake war hero fraud, senile, incompetent mccain who never saw a new war opportunity he didn’t like despite america’s defacto bankruptcy (a policy the post-election wobama’s promulgated) because of same being given air time as some sort of wise old sage when he’s really just an old, stale joke who would have been even worse than wobama but not by much, failed presidencies both. ]

Charles Manson & the Scientific Dictatorship Jurriaan Maessen | Just like Manson, the scientific dictatorship would like to see the bodies piled up high.

Obama, Corporate Media Ignore Widespread Health Problems On Gulf Coast Kurt Nimmo | Obama gets to declare another mission accomplished while residents of the Gulf suffer.

Charles Manson: Global Warming Prophet Paul Joseph Watson | James Jay Lee, along with many prominent environmentalists and academics, share their eugenicist belief system with the man who many consider to be evil incarnate.

Gender bender chemical atrazine widely contaminates U.S. public water supply David Gutierrez | Research indicates the U.S. water supply is widely contaminated with the endocrine disrupting chemical atrazine.

The Impact of Fiat Money as the World’s Reserve Currency David Redick | Nations can’t afford our exorbitant privilege of being both a fiat currency and the world’s primary reserve currency.

The Imperial Anatomy of Al-Qaeda. The CIA’s Drug-Running Terrorists and the “Arc of Crisis” As the 9th anniversary of 9/11 nears, and the war on terror continues to be waged and grows in ferocity and geography, it seems all the more imperative to return to the events of that fateful September morning and re-examine the reasons for war and the nature of the stated culprit, Al-Qaeda.

Climate Scientist: Manipulating Earth’s Climate Will Not Cost Taxpayer More than $1 Billion… Annually! David Keith, director of the Institute for Sustainable Energy, Environment and Economy, has proposed releasing engineered nano-sized discs in the earth’s atmosphere to “offset global warming”- and that for just $ 1 billion of your taxpayer-money annually.

Dollar falls to 15-year low against yen The dollar fell to a 15-year low against the yen Tuesday, plunging at one point to 83.52, as the Japanese unit took advantage of its status as a refuge currency amid global economic uncertainty.

Austerity Strikes Hit France, Britain In France, unions called for a day of mass strike action shutting down trains, planes, buses, subways, post offices and schools in protest against President Nicolas Sarkozy’s pensions reform bill.

Former N.Korea soldiers to form group to topple regime Scores of former North Korean soldiers who defected to South Korea will this week form a group aimed at toppling the regime with the help of serving soldiers there, one of its leaders said Monday.

Celebrating Job Losses ‘For now I will stick with the belief that Friday's action was just another oversold rally in the context of a falling market. I would love for the economy to right itself … Unfortunately I still don’t see or understand how we are going to accomplish those things in the near term. I do see many technical indicators flashing warning signs … Until then cash is the safest investment and all celebrations should be put on hold.’

Sellers Cut Prices on 50% of Homes Homeowners are slashing prices more drastically and more frequently, according to recently released data from ZipRealty. The average price reduction is now 7.1 percent of list price.

Roubini: India May Overtake China within a Year Roubini warned that world growth leader China was too dependent on exports to the struggling West and predicted that within a year its economic growth will be overtaken by India, a huge nation much more reliant on its domestic market for development.

10 Reasons Why Conservatives Should Be Against Unfair Trade With China And 10 Reasons Why Liberals Should Be Against Unfair Trade With China Liberals and conservatives should both be able to agree that it is not a good thing for millions of American jobs to leave the United States and go to China.

CNN’s ‘Glass One-Quarter Full’ Spin: Emphasize Private Job Gains The Bureau of Labor Statistics released its “all-important” jobs report on Sept. 3, the morning before Labor Day weekend. CNN rapidly found the “bright spot” in a report that showed a net loss of 54,000 jobs and a higher 9.6 percent unemployment rate.

Targeting American Citizens: CIA Takes Global Murder Policy to Next Level Kurt Nimmo | The CIA has a long track record of targeting untold numbers of people for elimination.

Vaccinate the World: Gates, Rockefeller Seek Global Population Reduction Daniel Taylor | The war against population is an ongoing effort on part of the global elite.

Irish protesters hurl bottles, eggs, shoes at phony tony blair (phony tony’s a total fraud) during book signing Agence France-Presse | One woman said she tried to make a citizen’s arrest on Blair once he was inside the bookshop where the event was taking place.

Democrats running on austerity (Washington Post) [ Wee doggies! … The new republican party is born … Actually, despite the myth, the reality is that under Reagan ( and the bushies, and of course, wobama – clinton caught a break with the peace dividend but the bureaucracy grew ) government spending significantly increased along with the government bureaucracy. ] Fearing midterm wipeout, party hopefuls embrace budget cuts with the zeal of Reagan Republicans.

Palin calls reporters 'impotent' and 'limp' (Washington Post) [ I must reiterate, she, palin’s so embarrassingly dumb! She truly is the joke that keeps on giving! I really mean it! I mean, what next? ] The former Alaska governor weighed in herself: "Those who are impotent and limp and gutless and they go on their anonymous -- sources that are anonymous -- and impotent, limp and gutless reporters take anonymous sources and cite them as being factual references," she told Sean Hannity. "It just slays me ( this could be a somewhat Freudian slip as she contemplates the uselessness of sexually non-interested reporters while she meant lays and I think her supposed / purported attractiveness / desirability is vastly overstated; but, this makes for great SNL skits; you know, those reporters not man enough to service her ) because it's so absolutely clear what the state of yellow journalism is today that they would take these anonymous sources as fact."

Ex-bank executives say their dismissals caused panic withdrawals in Kabul (Post, September 4, 2010; 8:52 AM) Karzai urges Afghans not to panic as bank withdrawals accelerate (Post, September 4, 2010; 3:11 AM) Suicide bombing kills at lesat 55 (Washington Post) Pakistan… After Iraq war, uncertainty and seemingly mixed messages (Post, September 2, 2010; 4:26 PM) [ What do these nations have in common? An american presence … and from the foregoing it’s clear that this sounds like a reporting job for Rosanne Rosanna Dana of SNL fame who has insight into such scenarios as this ‘cause her mama always said …it’s always something! ]

U.S. to temper stance on Afghanistan corruption (Washington Post) [ Sounds like a plan! After all, in america’s own image of corruption, ie., bribery, heroin trade, etc., they’re remolding Afghanistan replete with good old american style corruption and they don’t want no noses pokin’ around to see america’s direct involvement in the corruption, bribery, etc., and particularly the heroin trade, the american raison d’etre there where the Taliban had all but eradicated the heroin production / trade which surged thereafter with the american participation. The American rationale seems to be, continue the corruption, etc., since to eliminate same would help the Taliban. Riiiiight! My, oh my! You can’t make this stuff up.] Military officials conclude that effort to drive out all but the most corrosive abuses in region would create a power vacuum that Taliban could exploit.

Economy treading water as jobless rate rises (Washington Post) [ Ah yes, sweet Neil Irwin! He might just have those rosy fraudulent wall street glass half-full word pictures on his mind. But, not to rain on his parade, I’d say that drowning victim, Mr. Economy’s gone down for the third time! ] Neil Irwin The unemployment rate rose to 9.6 percent, the Labor Department said Friday, but private employers added 67,000 jobs -- data that offer a mixed portrait of the labor market in an economy that is neither growing fast enough to bring down joblessness nor sinking back into a new downturn.

Not-so-dire jobs report gives stocks a boost (Washington Post) AP Business Highlights [ Wow! ‘Private employers hired more workers over the past three months than first thought’ … Riiiiight! Especially with 2 months to the mid-term elections (time for federal term limits and the abolition of lifetime appointments for anything owing to the nation’s defacto bankruptcy), desperation with fake / false data / reports; and, that negative but better than expected thing as unemployment rate inches up to 9.6% (the real unemployment rate is approximately 20+% with that ‘stopped looking’ fudge-factor giving them the false positive). I mean, come on! Private reports on non-farm payrolls down each week, but suddenly from out of nowhere defying virtually all economist estimates the ue claims are up, and prior gov’t reports revised up. This is a great opportunity to sell / take profits! ] ‘(AP)Companies add 67K workers, but jobless rate rises WASHINGTON (AP) -- Private employers hired more workers over the past three months than first thought, a glimmer of hope for the weak economy ahead of the Labor Day weekend. But the unemployment rate rose because not enough jobs were created to absorb the growing number of people looking for work ...’

Mark Hulbert's Take: What Are the Odds of a September Decline? at Seeking Alpha (Fri, Sep 3) ‘Some of the work Mark Hulbert does is nothing more than telling us what the gurus in the universe he follows are thinking individually and, more frequently, in the aggregate. But of late, he also has been doing some far more interesting analysis in the “Yale Hirsch” mode – and the results are not satisfying if you are a bull.

The bullish case seems to rest on two platforms: (1) August was really bad therefore September should be good in reaction to that, and (2) “Everyone” now expects the current crop of politicos to suffer major setbacks in November and, since the market is a predictive mechanism, investors are positioning themselves today for what they believe will be wonderful news post-November (like an extension of the current tax rates and a reduction in pork-barrel spending by irresponsible pols.)

The Dow rallied more than 300 points the first two days of September so, making the usual straight-line assumption, bulls believe that today is the day to get invested, Hmmm. Let’s examine each of the above platforms in turn.

Quoting Mr. Hulbert’s conclusions based upon his historical analysis:

I have good news and bad news when it comes to slicing and dicing the historical data as it pertains to September.

The good news is that it is possible, by carefully reading the statistical tea leaves, to get advance insight into whether any given month is likely to do better or worse than average.

The bad news: Those tea leaves provide no such hope that this September will be able to beat its historical reputation as being awful for stocks.

His research shows that since 1896 (the year the Dow Jones Industrial Average was created,) the Dow has lost an average of 1.15% in September. The average gain for all other months was 0.71%. Worse, a look at the historical record shows that Septembers did not show a 1.15% decline following a bad August – they showed a 2.7% decline! Typically, when August is down, as goes August, so goes September -- only twice as bad as usual.

Worse than that, Hulbert notes, “During each of the past nine decades... September's rank relative to other months in terms of performance was never higher than ninth. It was dead last in five of those nine decades -- including the most recent one.”

He adds a final bit of gasoline to this bonfire by noting that the CBOE's Volatility Index (VIX) is relatively low going into September, the month tends to do better. Uh-oh. The VIX at the end of August was quite a bit higher than 20. (And for those who have followed our comments on the VXX and VXZ ETFs in the past, we believe they have now entered an excellent buy area.)

As for the second platform, the market seldom reacts favorably to the same news twice. I’ve been writing for two years that the pendulum will swing, that the 2008 election was a rejection of the guns-and-butter policy of the previous administration and was little different than the voters’ rejection of President Johnson’s guns and butter policies in 1968 (thrusting Richard Nixon into office with disastrous consequences we hope are not repeated this time around), and that mid-term elections are almost always about mitigating the euphoria of the previous presidential election. This is not news!

The rally of September 1^st and 2^nd may have occurred as a result of Johnny-come-latelies reaching the conclusion Wall Street reached about the mid-term elections weeks or months ago. If that is the case, I imagine the smart money is rubbing their hands with glee and using this rally to lay on bigger short positions.

The current rally was ostensibly about the fact that the Chinese Purchasing Managers Index rose to 51.7 in August from 51.2 in July, followed by the news that the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index improved from 55.5 in July to 56.3 in August. I don't see it – these incremental numbers are nothing but decimal dust in the grand scheme of things! Easily manipulated by the bureaucrats in charge of such numbers, the “improvement” is so small as to be barely measurable – and to raise not a stir among the media when they are “revised” from “up 0.5%” to “down 0.1%” or whatever in another month.

The other economic numbers that form the backdrop to this rally include: Canada’s GDP fell to an annual rate of 2% in the 2^nd quarter, down from 5.8% in Q1; auto sales absolutely plunged in the U.S. and around the world; there was a continued drop in U.S. construction spending; there were declining retail sales in Euro nations; and the ADP employment report indicating that we didn’t just grow jobs at too slow a pace to cover all the new workers entering the labor force, but we actually lost some 10,000 private sector jobs! Government is still hiring, of course, but we must always remember: the private sector is income, government is overhead. That doesn’t mean we don’t need certain government workers – what hellish existence would it be without fire and police protection, or good teachers to educate our children? But it is still overhead even if we collectively choose to pay for it in order to enhance our safety or literacy.

Bottom line: September tends to do worse in years that August has been bad. August was bad. The news of the mid-term elections is already old news and will most likely follow the historical path of all mid-term elections. We will return more to the center. And the good news to propel the market higher is likely to be short-lived. Clearly, we aren’t out of the woods yet. If the market is in a news-dominated phase, we are likely in big trouble.

For our clients we are stressing safety, with inverse ETF protection from the likes of ProShares Short S&P 500 (SH), ProShares Short Russell 200 (RWM), ProShares UltraShort Nasdaq (QID) and ProShares Short MSCI Emerging Markets (EUM). (If the US and Europe aren’t consuming, who is going to order stuff from the emerging nations? They will fall if our markets and economies fall…) We are also buying VXX and VXZ and are keeping our bond positions short and inflation-resistant, as we do with WIP, TIP, BWZ, and MINT. Finally, we own some special situations in precious metals, energy and agriculture. (See previous articles for specifics, including this and this...)

AP Business Highlights [ Wow! ‘Private employers hired more workers over the past three months than first thought’ … Riiiiight! Especially with 2 months to the mid-term elections (time for federal term limits and the abolition of lifetime appointments for anything owing to the nation’s defacto bankruptcy), desperation with fake / false data / reports; and, that negative but better than expected thing as unemployment rate inches up to 9.6% (the real unemployment rate is approximately 20+% with that ‘stopped looking’ fudge-factor giving them the false positive). I mean, come on! Private reports on non-farm payrolls down each week, but suddenly from out of nowhere defying virtually all economist estimates the ue claims are up, and prior gov’t reports revised up. This is a great opportunity to sell / take profits! ]Companies add 67K workers, but jobless rate rises WASHINGTON (AP) -- Private employers hired more workers over the past three months than first thought, a glimmer of hope for the weak economy ahead of the Labor Day weekend. But the unemployment rate rose because not enough jobs were created to absorb the growing number of people looking for work ...’

Al Peia's Blog

Wednesday, September 8, 2010

September 8, 2010 posts

Business / Economic / Financial

So Broke We Can’t Pay Attention Howard Beale | You spent the whole day yesterday worrying about today, and now that it’s here, was it worth it?

The Financial Industry Is A ‘Gigantic Parasite’ We Don’t Need Anymore Vincent Fernando | Strong words from ex-Morgan Stanley Andy Xie.

TSA Plans to Use Homeboy in Ball Cap “Avatar” on Naked Body Scanners Kurt Nimmo | Scheme ignores the obvious health risk of radiation technology.

9/11 Truth is Still the Issue James Corbett | Where does the 9/11 Truth Movement stand and where it is heading?

50 Mind Blowing Facts About America That Our Founding Fathers Never Would Have Believed The Economic Collapse | The United States is a much different place today than it was in 1776, and unfortunately many of the changes have been for the worse.

Al-Qaida and Taliban threat is exaggerated, says security thinktank Guardian | Strategy institute challenges idea that troops are needed in Afghanistan to stop export of terrorism to west.

Rioters Attack LA Police Station After Death of Immigrant New York Daily News | Hundreds of demonstrators took to the streets for the second night in a row in downtown Los Angeles Tuesday night to protest the police shooting of a

Petraeus: Neocons favorite general Russia Today | Ten Afghan civilians were killed Thursday in a NATO air strike on three vehicles carrying civilians, President Hamid Karzai said in a statement.

Work Until You’re Dead? That May Be the Only Option for Many Americans Huffington Post | Given that the first wave of Boomers is scheduled to turn 65 in 2011, Attention Must be Paid.

Gold Could Double over Five Years – Headed Higher with Government Resentment: Holmes Gold has the potential to double within the next five years, and if governments stumble with their policies, it can go even higher, said Frank Holmes, CEO of US Global Investors.

Burry, Predictor of Mortgage Collapse, Bets on Farmland, Gold Michael Burry, the former hedge-fund manager who predicted the housing market’s plunge, said he is investing in farmable land, small technology companies and gold as he hunts original ideas and braces for a weaker dollar.

Unemployment in U.S. May Rise Toward 10% on `Feeble’ Growth As Bob Chapman outlined on the show today, once the real figures that the U.S. Labor Department hides are factored in, real unemployment is over 21 per cent – approaching great depression levels.

Manipulation Of Money – David Icke David Icke explains how money is created out of fresh air and how debt is used to enslave us.

FBI Warns of Possible Terrorist Response to “Burn Koran Day” Kurt Nimmo | Violence expected in response to Koran burning demo in Florida.

Everything you need to know about the events in NYC We Are Change | To be sure everyone is keyed in on all details, we here in NYC decided to write up an extremely detailed schedule.

The Reckless Mess Created by The Fed Bob Chapman | The 3-card Monte game continues.

Condoleeza Rice: Everyone Thought Flight 93 Had Been Shot Down When United 93 came down Ms Rice and other officials believed it may have been shot out of the sky. Miss Rice added: ‘Everyone in that room thinks that perhaps it’s been shot down.’

The White House Attempts To Refute The Scariest Jobs Chart Ever You’ve certainly seen the chart that we’ve dubbed The Scariest Jobs Chart ever, which shows how meager the jobs recovery has been since the start of the recession, compared to other recessions.

Obama Did Create 3 Million Jobs — in China President Obama should be saying, “My economic stimulus plan has preserved or created 3 million jobs — in China.” He keeps leaving out the words “in China.” His plan is stimulating American demand for imports, not demand for American products.

Obama: Sounding Bush-like? David Swanson said President Obama sounded like he embraced all the lies about this war, including the falsehood about the surge which created “mythical success”.

Charles Manson & the Scientific Dictatorship Jurriaan Maessen | Just like Manson, the scientific dictatorship would like to see the bodies piled up high.

Obama, Corporate Media Ignore Widespread Health Problems On Gulf Coast Kurt Nimmo | Obama gets to declare another mission accomplished while residents of the Gulf suffer.

Charles Manson: Global Warming Prophet Paul Joseph Watson | James Jay Lee, along with many prominent environmentalists and academics, share their eugenicist belief system with the man who many consider to be evil incarnate.

Gender bender chemical atrazine widely contaminates U.S. public water supply David Gutierrez | Research indicates the U.S. water supply is widely contaminated with the endocrine disrupting chemical atrazine.

The Impact of Fiat Money as the World’s Reserve Currency David Redick | Nations can’t afford our exorbitant privilege of being both a fiat currency and the world’s primary reserve currency.

Dollar falls to 15-year low against yen The dollar fell to a 15-year low against the yen Tuesday, plunging at one point to 83.52, as the Japanese unit took advantage of its status as a refuge currency amid global economic uncertainty.

Austerity Strikes Hit France, Britain In France, unions called for a day of mass strike action shutting down trains, planes, buses, subways, post offices and schools in protest against President Nicolas Sarkozy’s pensions reform bill.

Former N.Korea soldiers to form group to topple regime Scores of former North Korean soldiers who defected to South Korea will this week form a group aimed at toppling the regime with the help of serving soldiers there, one of its leaders said Monday.

Sellers Cut Prices on 50% of Homes Homeowners are slashing prices more drastically and more frequently, according to recently released data from ZipRealty. The average price reduction is now 7.1 percent of list price.

Roubini: India May Overtake China within a Year Roubini warned that world growth leader China was too dependent on exports to the struggling West and predicted that within a year its economic growth will be overtaken by India, a huge nation much more reliant on its domestic market for development.

10 Reasons Why Conservatives Should Be Against Unfair Trade With China And 10 Reasons Why Liberals Should Be Against Unfair Trade With China Liberals and conservatives should both be able to agree that it is not a good thing for millions of American jobs to leave the United States and go to China.

Targeting American Citizens: CIA Takes Global Murder Policy to Next Level Kurt Nimmo | The CIA has a long track record of targeting untold numbers of people for elimination.

Vaccinate the World: Gates, Rockefeller Seek Global Population Reduction Daniel Taylor | The war against population is an ongoing effort on part of the global elite.

Irish protesters hurl bottles, eggs, shoes at phony tony blair (phony tony’s a total fraud) during book signing Agence France-Presse | One woman said she tried to make a citizen’s arrest on Blair once he was inside the bookshop where the event was taking place.

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