Saturday, September 4, 2010

September 3, 2010 posts

Business / Economic / Financial

[ This link to a somewhat more cumulative blog posts page will precede current days news since most all topics remain current in terms of impact and longer-term effect and can be searched by topical index term more easily. The same is provided since the blog site http://alpeiablog.blogspot.com has just been censored as to size by google which is typical for google as nsa / cia / gov’t shill as more are becoming aware of. The same is true for microsoft, another co. that’s seen their best days and relies on the government to maintain their monopoly. Up to now the better page http://www.scribd.com/alpeia is provided for ease of formatting and clarity thereby while the Washington Post page is the real deal but without formatting http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/community/mypost/index.html?plckPersonaPage=PersonaComments&plckUserId=alpeia&newspaperUserId=alpeia ]

Mark Hulbert's Take: What Are the Odds of a September Decline? at Seeking Alpha (Fri, Sep 3) ‘Some of the work Mark Hulbert does is nothing more than telling us what the gurus in the universe he follows are thinking individually and, more frequently, in the aggregate. But of late, he also has been doing some far more interesting analysis in the “Yale Hirsch” mode – and the results are not satisfying if you are a bull.

The bullish case seems to rest on two platforms: (1) August was really bad therefore September should be good in reaction to that, and (2) “Everyone” now expects the current crop of politicos to suffer major setbacks in November and, since the market is a predictive mechanism, investors are positioning themselves today for what they believe will be wonderful news post-November (like an extension of the current tax rates and a reduction in pork-barrel spending by irresponsible pols.)

The Dow rallied more than 300 points the first two days of September so, making the usual straight-line assumption, bulls believe that today is the day to get invested, Hmmm. Let’s examine each of the above platforms in turn.

Quoting Mr. Hulbert’s conclusions based upon his historical analysis:

I have good news and bad news when it comes to slicing and dicing the historical data as it pertains to September.

The good news is that it is possible, by carefully reading the statistical tea leaves, to get advance insight into whether any given month is likely to do better or worse than average.

The bad news: Those tea leaves provide no such hope that this September will be able to beat its historical reputation as being awful for stocks.

His research shows that since 1896 (the year the Dow Jones Industrial Average was created,) the Dow has lost an average of 1.15% in September. The average gain for all other months was 0.71%. Worse, a look at the historical record shows that Septembers did not show a 1.15% decline following a bad August – they showed a 2.7% decline! Typically, when August is down, as goes August, so goes September -- only twice as bad as usual.

Worse than that, Hulbert notes, “During each of the past nine decades... September's rank relative to other months in terms of performance was never higher than ninth. It was dead last in five of those nine decades -- including the most recent one.”

He adds a final bit of gasoline to this bonfire by noting that the CBOE's Volatility Index (VIX) is relatively low going into September, the month tends to do better. Uh-oh. The VIX at the end of August was quite a bit higher than 20. (And for those who have followed our comments on the VXX and VXZ ETFs in the past, we believe they have now entered an excellent buy area.)

As for the second platform, the market seldom reacts favorably to the same news twice. I’ve been writing for two years that the pendulum will swing, that the 2008 election was a rejection of the guns-and-butter policy of the previous administration and was little different than the voters’ rejection of President Johnson’s guns and butter policies in 1968 (thrusting Richard Nixon into office with disastrous consequences we hope are not repeated this time around), and that mid-term elections are almost always about mitigating the euphoria of the previous presidential election. This is not news!

The rally of September 1st and 2nd may have occurred as a result of Johnny-come-latelies reaching the conclusion Wall Street reached about the mid-term elections weeks or months ago. If that is the case, I imagine the smart money is rubbing their hands with glee and using this rally to lay on bigger short positions.

The current rally was ostensibly about the fact that the Chinese Purchasing Managers Index rose to 51.7 in August from 51.2 in July, followed by the news that the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index improved from 55.5 in July to 56.3 in August. I don't see it – these incremental numbers are nothing but decimal dust in the grand scheme of things! Easily manipulated by the bureaucrats in charge of such numbers, the “improvement” is so small as to be barely measurable – and to raise not a stir among the media when they are “revised” from “up 0.5%” to “down 0.1%” or whatever in another month.

The other economic numbers that form the backdrop to this rally include: Canada’s GDP fell to an annual rate of 2% in the 2nd quarter, down from 5.8% in Q1; auto sales absolutely plunged in the U.S. and around the world; there was a continued drop in U.S. construction spending; there were declining retail sales in Euro nations; and the ADP employment report indicating that we didn’t just grow jobs at too slow a pace to cover all the new workers entering the labor force, but we actually lost some 10,000 private sector jobs! Government is still hiring, of course, but we must always remember: the private sector is income, government is overhead. That doesn’t mean we don’t need certain government workers – what hellish existence would it be without fire and police protection, or good teachers to educate our children? But it is still overhead even if we collectively choose to pay for it in order to enhance our safety or literacy.

Bottom line: September tends to do worse in years that August has been bad. August was bad. The news of the mid-term elections is already old news and will most likely follow the historical path of all mid-term elections. We will return more to the center. And the good news to propel the market higher is likely to be short-lived. Clearly, we aren’t out of the woods yet. If the market is in a news-dominated phase, we are likely in big trouble.

For our clients we are stressing safety, with inverse ETF protection from the likes of ProShares Short S&P 500 (SH), ProShares Short Russell 200 (RWM), ProShares UltraShort Nasdaq (QID) and ProShares Short MSCI Emerging Markets (EUM). (If the US and Europe aren’t consuming, who is going to order stuff from the emerging nations? They will fall if our markets and economies fall…) We are also buying VXX and VXZ and are keeping our bond positions short and inflation-resistant, as we do with WIP, TIP, BWZ, and MINT. Finally, we own some special situations in precious metals, energy and agriculture. (See previous articles for specifics, including this and this...)

AP Business Highlights [ Wow! ‘Private employers hired more workers over the past three months than first thought’ … Riiiiight! Especially with 2 months to the mid-term elections (time for federal term limits and the abolition of lifetime appointments for anything owing to the nation’s defacto bankruptcy), desperation with fake / false data / reports; and, that negative but better than expected thing as unemployment rate inches up to 9.6% (the real unemployment rate is approximately 20+% with that ‘stopped looking’ fudge-factor giving them the false positive). I mean, come on! Private reports on non-farm payrolls down each week, but suddenly from out of nowhere defying virtually all economist estimates the ue claims are up, and prior gov’t reports revised up. This is a great opportunity to sell / take profits! ]Companies add 67K workers, but jobless rate rises WASHINGTON (AP) -- Private employers hired more workers over the past three months than first thought, a glimmer of hope for the weak economy ahead of the Labor Day weekend. But the unemployment rate rose because not enough jobs were created to absorb the growing number of people looking for work ...’

Stocks Churning in Trading Range: Dave's Daily ‘This will be short. Perhaps the image [old lady (wall street) churning (scam) butter (stocks)] and title should suffice as a summary of the week. After all, I indicated "possibly" I might post on Friday. The current market is a reprise of early July's rally from June's selloff. Now into September the August lows are reversing. How durable will this be is anyone's guess. Economic data was greeted with bullish enthusiasm as markets were oversold after Monday's slump. The unemployment data was just about the same as previous once you look deeper inside the data. The birth/death model is just an estimate made out of thin air. Once you view the data ex-that, things look pretty grim. There are very few players involved this week and perhaps in the future. It's interesting many major banks are closing their proprietary trading operations. This removes another important prop to markets as retail investors have left the scene. Further, for stock mutual funds, the exodus continues for the 16th straight week. Cash balances at these funds are at historic lows of 3% as the outflow continues. Curiously, short interest is also at an all-time low near 4% meaning few for bulls to squeeze. We only have hedge funds and overseas investors in the game. And, it does seem like a game more than ever now. Bulls jumped on the oversold conditions on Wednesday as a DeMark 9 was registered on Tuesday for most major market daily charts then. A rally on that technical condition was no surprise ...’

Important Manufacturing Indicators Look Weak at Seeking Alpha (Fri, Sep 3)

Consumption Contraction Approaches 2008 Low at Seeking Alpha (Fri, Sep 3)

Beware the Big Red Leading Indicator at Seeking Alpha (Fri, Sep 3)

Small Investors Turns More Bullish (contrarian indicator) at Seeking Alpha (Fri, Sep 3)

Unemployment Rate Edges up to 9.6% at TheStreet.com (Fri, Sep 3)

AAII Sentiment Survey: Bullish Sentiment Improves, But Bearishness Still Dominates at Seeking Alpha (Fri, Sep 3)

Monthly Markets Review: Risk Aversion Rises in August as Double Dip Concerns Grow at Seeking Alpha (Fri, Sep 3) ‘…The ECB keeping rates at a record low of 1% and zero interest policies in the US and in most western economies remains bullish for gold as the opportunity cost, the lack of yield, of owning gold is negligible, especially with inflation having picked up recently in many economies internationally. Further signs of burgeoning food inflation were seen in the surge in the price of global meat prices which have risen to 20 year highs … (chart) September can be the 'cruelest month' for stocks. Conversely, more years than not, precious metals prices perform well in September and many analysts reckon this year will not disappoint those owning gold. Given the uncertain financial and economic outlook, it is important that investors remain diversified with allocations to cash, short dated government bonds, international equities, and gold…’

More than 400 US Banks Will Fail: Roubini CNBC | More than half of the 800-plus US banks on the “critical list” are likely to go bust, according to renowned economist Nouriel Roubini.

U.S. unemployment soars to 9.6% after economy loses 54,000 jobs The U.S. unemployment rate rose to 9.6 per cent in August, official figures released today have shown. The data from the U.S. Labor Department showed the economy lost 54,000 jobs last month as the United States continues to struggle to recover from the recent global recession.

Government Economic Leaders Surprised that Real World Isn’t Responding to their Magic Pixie Dust Many have tried to explain to the neoclassical economists running the show exactly how bad the economic collapse would be, why it was so bad, and how to mount an adequate response to fix things. But Bernanke, Romer and the rest of the gang ignored them.

Why Lessons From The First Great Depression Mean The Next Four Months Will Be Very Painful For Stockholders Scott Minerd, CIO of Guggenheim Partners, parses through the years of the Great Depression, and focuses on the pivotal 1936, which contained in it the seeds for the destruction of the period of relative economic growth and stability from 1932 to 1936.

Michael Pento Says Fed Will Buy Stocks And Real Estate In Its Next Attempt To Create Inflation Zero Hedge | Pento also goes into explaining why housing is facing a “deflationary depression,” and a further collapse in pricing, why inflation benefits only those closest to the money, i.e., the banks and the military complex.

The U.S. Path to Collapse National Inflation Association | The pain that was felt after the collapse of Lehman Brothers is nothing compared to the pain that will come when we begin to feel the effects of bailing out the rest of Wall Street.

(9-3-10) Dow 10,447 +127 Nasdaq 2,233 +33 S&P 500 1,004 +14 [CLOSE- OIL $74.60 (-54% for year 2008) (RECORD TRADING HIGH $147.27) GAS $2.74 (reg. gas in LAND OF FRUITS AND NUTS $3.11 REG./ $3.26 MID-GRADE/ $3.35 PREM./ $3.69 DIESEL) / GOLD $1,251 (+24% for year 2009) / SILVER $19.95 (+47% for year 2009) PLATINUM $1,551 (+56% for year 2009) / DOLLAR= .77 EURO, 84 YEN, .64 POUND STERLING, ETC. (How low can you go - LOWER)/ 10 YR NOTE YIELD 2.71% …..… AP Business Highlights ...Yahoo Market Update... T. Rowe Price Weekly Recap – Stocks / Bonds / Currencies - Domestic / International This Is a Secular Bear Market and The End of Buy and Hold … and Hope MARKET MANIPULATION AND HOW THE LATEST BUBBLE-FRAUD PRE-COMING CRASH IS BEING ACCOMPLISHED 3-11-10 6 Theories On Why the Stock Market Has Rallied 3-9-10 [archived website file] Risks Lurk for ETF Investors The bull market that never was/were beyond wall street b.s. when measured in gold Property Values Projected to Fall 12% in 2010 Jan 31, 2010 The Week Ahead: Risk Is Off the Cliff; Unwind Has Begun Jan 31, 2010 01-13-10 Forecast for 2010 from Seeking Alpha Contributor THE COMING MARKET CRASH / CORRECTION 1-28-10 Maierhofer (01-15-10) 11 Clear Signs Economy Sinking Economic Black Hole 1-22-10: 20 Reasons Why The U.S. Economy Is Dying And Is Simply Not Going To Recover Current Economic / Fiscal Charts Trendsresearch.com forecast for 2009 1-7-10 Crash is coming! ‘WORST ECONOMIC COLLAPSE EVER’ Must Read Economic / Financial Data This Depression is just beginning The coming depression… thecomingdepression.net MUST READ: JEREMY GRANTHAM’S QUARTERLY UPDATE 25 January 2010 (850 on the S&P) by TPC The Next Wave of Collapse is Coming Sooner than you think Sliding Back Into the Great Depression ABSOLUTELY, ABSURDLY, RIDICULOUS! SELL / TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME!

National / World

Globalist Soros Launches Frontal Assault Against Tea Party Kurt Nimmo | Soros and the foundation left have launched a website designed to go after the growing Tea Party movement.

ABC Nightline Hit Piece Smears Alex Jones As King of “Paranoia Porn” [ Yeah! This is unequivocally indefensible on the part of abc (or nbc, fox, cbs, etc. if they shared a similar mainstream media view) because there are so many substantial nation-damaging behaviors that are in plain sight yet go unreported (and unprosecuted). I’d feel more comfortable with a Washington Post Network (possibly as a wholly owned subsidiary to militate against the risks inherent to such a venture and the establishment of same). While I do find Alex Jones’ somewhat overstated vaunted opinion of the so-called elite a bit much, it’s not because these mental cases are not trying to do he has accused / shown, but rather because I find his ‘elite’ to be as I’ve previously stated totally inept, incompetent vegetables who are incapable of doing anything well or of substance. I’m really not exaggerating when you look at their track records of inscrutable failure, if only because of a lack of focus on and attention to such failure / corruption. This also includes the ‘pols’ who make the case for term limits based upon any previous service at all. I think people should be thankful that Infowars, Prison Planet, Jones, et als, value the people / humanity enough to take the very real risks, and expend his time and energy in sifting through the plethora of b*** s***, obfuscation, and cover-ups to reveal the truth. Given the inherent state of human nature, their lack of courage, integrity, etc., including that of americans generally, another area where I part company with Jones et als and which, truth be told led them to censor my comments to some of their articles (very hypocritical), such sacrifice by them seems very difficult to justify; but the discomfort they give the dysfunctional mainstream media is certainly a good thing of itself. ] Paul Joseph Watson & Kurt Nimmo | Dan Harris proves yet again why the establishment media is increasingly shunned and distrusted.

The True Cost of the War Paul Craig Roberts | America’s “war on terror,” a fabrication, has resurrected the unaccountable dungeon of the Middle Ages and the raw tyranny that prevailed prior to the Magna Carta.

Fluoride: Direct Engagement to Incite Public Inquiry Travis Crank | Wichita public servants outwardly deny the fluoridation of our water.

Eugenics Alert: World Bank Population-Reduction Lending Schemes Already Underway Jurriaan Maessen | The World Bank works in concert with all the other arms of the octopus.

As Usual, MSM Gushingly “Predicts” Our Fascist Future [ This is quite shocking inasmuch as they’d then be able to easily ‘off’ with a few simple modifications of the chip for any of a multitude of bad reasons / motifs. I would never, under any circumstances, permit this for myself, etc..] David Kramer | From the broadcasting arm of the number one New World Order industrial corporation, General Electric, comes this story about the “convenience” of being microchipped for identification.

Drudgereport: UNEMPLOYMENT JUMPS TO 9.6%...
Economy LOST 283,000 jobs during 'Recovery Summer' months...
NPR: 'Recovery Summer' Ends With Economic Pothole...
Labor Sec. Declares: 'There are jobs out there'...
TREASURY HEAD RUSHES BACK FROM VACATION; AIDES SEARCH FOR OTHER JOBS PACKAGE...
120 Days to Go Until Largest Tax Hikes in History...
President Claims Job Creation; Doesn't Mention Net Job Loss of 54K...
HE NEEDS A VACATION: OBAMA TO CAMP DAVID...
Taxpayers to face initial loss on GM IPO; Treasury to sell first shares below break-even...

David Rosenberg: The U.S. Is Suffering a Japanese-Style Depression Burrows ‘Presciently bearish David Rosenberg, the chief economist and strategist at Gluskin Sheff who called the global meltdown back when he was still at Merrill Lynch, isn't budging from his view that the U.S. is in a depression -- and a prolonged, Japanese-style one at that. Rosenberg reminded clients on Wednesday that here we are 33 months after the Great Recession began, and yet home prices, gross domestic product, credit outstanding, organic personal income and employment are all lower now than they were prior to the onset of the downturn. "We can understand that this is not exactly cocktail conversation, but this is a Japanese-style (even worse perhaps) modern-day depression," Rosenberg writes. "It's not the 1930s because soup lines have been replaced with unemployment insurance lines -- over 10 million checks and for up to 99 weeks. The poor souls who endured the bitter 1930s had no such relief." And as for the U.S.'s vaunted labor flexibility and superior demographics saving it from a Japanese sort of lost decade or two, well, Rosenberg is having none of it. "Government policy and the record number of people upside-down on their mortgage have seriously impaired the flexibility of the labor market," Rosenberg writes. And the U.S. birth rate has declined for two consecutive years and is at its lowest level in a century, he notes. Of course, it's no surprise to buy-and-hold investors that U.S. equities have already notched a lost decade and then some. Take a look at this 10-year chart of the S&P 500 ($INX): See full article from DailyFinance: http://srph.it/aZTYr7



[$$] U.S. Equity ETFs Implode ‘U.S. equity ETFs hemorrhaged assets during the month of August as investors sought out emerging-market equity and debt along with fixed-income picks. According to National Stock Exchange data (nsx.com) released today, U.S. equity ETFs shed nearly $11 billion in assets last month. Here's something remarkable: One U.S. equity ETF accounted for more than half of these outflows. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF, arguably the ETF industry's most iconic fund, saw net outflows totaling more than $6.6 billion last month. Who were the biggest losers besides SPY? You'll recognize some of these names: the PowerShares QQQ ETF, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF and the SPDR DJIA ETF saw net asset outflows of $2 billion, $1.7 billion and $616 million, respectively. At the other end of the spectrum, the Vanguard MSCI Emerging Markets ETF and the iShares MSCI-Emerging Markets ETF attracted $1.9 billion and $1.8 billion, respectively, while the...’

David Rosenberg: The U.S. Is Suffering a Japanese-Style Depression Presciently bearish David Rosenberg, the chief economist and strategist at Gluskin Sheff who called the global meltdown back when he was still at Merrill Lynch, isn’t budging from his view that the U.S. is in a depression — and a prolonged, Japanese-style one at that.

The U.S. Path to Collapse The combination of more government spending and less taxes equals massive inflation, but this represents the state of mind in Washington today. Inflation is still the last thing on their minds because they don’t see it yet.

Can A Family Of Four Survive On A Middle Class Income In America Today? When I was growing up, $50,000 sounded like a gigantic mountain of money to me. And it was actually a very significant amount of money in those days. But in 2010 it just does not go that far. Today, the median household income in the United States for a year is approximately $50,000.

The Reckless Mess Created by The Fed Quantitative easing will put the American public at ease, at least temporarily. They do not realize it but the American and world economies are in a deliberate state of slow collapse. Yes, the Fed has created a terrible mess. They have been totally unprofessional and reckless.

US Retail Sales Top Estimates on Tax Holidays, Discounts Bloomberg A family walks toward the entrance to the Kohl's store in Round Rock, Texas. Photographer: Jack Plunkett/Bloomberg US retailers reported August sales that beat analysts' estimates as ...

Retail sales, home contracts rise modestly (Washington Post) [ Forced / Distressed / Underwater pending / foreclosure sales the impetus for short-covering / suckers’ rally on light and hence, easily manipulated, pre-holiday computerized trade volume. The government, desperate and defacto bankrupt, is back to their fake / false data reporting; you know, the kind that spurs the fraudulent wall street rallies and gets revised by 35% + down later as with GDP just recently, but the wall street frauds will get their commissions again on the way down. YAHOO [BRIEFING.COM]: ‘…Early participants had little reason to alter their mood since the initial jobless claims count for the week ended August 28 came in at 472,000, which is in on par with the 475,000 initial claims that had been widely expected. The latest tally was also little changed from the prior week total of 478,000. Continuing claims saw a more substantial slip as they fell to 4.46 million from 4.48 million. Final nonfarm productivity readings for the second quarter also offered little surprise. Productivity in the quarter fell 1.8%, which is in stride with the 1.7% decline that had been widely forecasted. Unit labor costs for the quarter increased 1.1%, as expected. Pending home sales for July provided participants with a positive surprise. They posted a 5.2% monthly increase, which contrasts with the call for no change from economists polled by Briefing.com. That data overshadowed news that factory orders for July increased 0.1% instead of 0.3% as had been widely expected…’ Stocks rise on economic hopes ahead of payrolls (Reuters) Riiiiight! Sounds like a plan! ]

Nation / World

Gun Confiscation in Response to Hurricane Earl? Kurt Nimmo | In New Orleans, police and National Guard confiscated weapons and violated the Second Amendment.

California Cops Taser Senior Citizen in His Own Home Kurt Nimmo | In America, now officially a police state, you will be tasered in your own home if you lip off to the police.

World Bank Threatens “Drastic Steps Necessary” if Nations Refuse Population Reduction Implementation Jurriaan Maessen | A World Bank report suggests introducing “sterilization vans” and “camps.”

British Attorney General moves toward re-opening investigation into mysterious death of Iraq weapons inspector Raw Story | The United Kingdom’s top law enforcement official has taken possession of secret files surrounding the murder of David Kelly, a prominent WMD researcher who was found dead in the months after the invasion of Iraq.

New Evidence Of Controlled Demolition On 9/11 In the video, at about the 0:59 mark, a high-pressure explosion occurs in one of the Twin Towers, below the impact zone, while the building is still standing.

Update: Mile-Long Oil Sheen Reported Spreading From Site Of Gulf Platform Explosion The Coast Guard is on the scene of another oil rig fire in the Gulf of Mexico. Officials are now reporting a mile-long oil sheen spreading from the site.

Karzai’s brother calls for U.S. to shore up Kabul Bank as withdrawals accelerate As depositors thronged branches of Afghanistan’s biggest bank, Mahmoud Karzai, the brother of the Afghan president and a major shareholder in beleaguered Kabul Bank called on Thursday for intervention by the United States to head off a financial meltdown.

Mexico drug kingpin says he received trailers of US cash A captured Mexican drug kingpin admitted to “investments” in Colombia and said he had received trailers full of dollars from the United States, in a first interrogation video released here.

‘Iraq war based on lies and deception’ Former Reagan Administration official Paul Craig Roberts says that we didn’t hear why we initially went to war with Iraq, although the world knows was based on lies and deception.

Pakistan military abandons US trips after being ‘mistaken for terrorists’ Pakistani officials said the officer, weary from the journey to the US, had said, “I hope this is the final plane to the destination” causing a female passenger, who believed he was threatening the aircraft, to panic.

Drudgereport: TIME: (WOBAMA) MR. UNPOPULAR... FLASHBACK: (WOBAMA) TIME MAN OF THE YEAR 2008...
Calls for USA to shore up Afghanistan Bank as withdrawals accelerate...

UPDATE: Oil rig explodes in Gulf of Mexico; 7 active wells on platform...

COAST GUARD: Mile-long 'oil sheen' spreading...

Russian police raid opposition magazine... [They don’t often do this overtly in america anymore since most media is in cahoots / controlled; but still, no excuse for putin who is often disengaged as when he is out shooting Siberian Tigers with sophisticated weaponry. ]

Pledge beaten by sorority sisters who warned her 'snitches get stitches'... ‘… In her lawsuit, excerpted here, Howard noted that she had originally planned to pledge Alpha Kappa Alpha, the oldest African-American women’s sorority. But since the sorority’s San Jose chapter has been suspended due to hazing activities, Howard opted to join Sigma Gamma Rho, believing that “they represented the ‘sisterhood’ she sought in a sorority.” However, Howard contends, that the group’s pledge process was far from sisterly. According to her complaint, she and fellow pledges were punched, slapped, kicked, slammed into walls, struck with a wooden spoon and a cane, and had books and coins thrown at them during a series of 16 nighttime initiation sessions. Howard recalled one evening when a sorority sister told her to close her eyes. She was then struck on the buttocks with what she later learned was a kitchen pot. The pledges were also frequently struck with a wooden paddle, Howard said, blows that left her with welts on her buttocks. Howard reported that pledges were repeatedly warned not to talk with friends and family about the initiation process, since “snitches get stitches.” They were also told that if they failed to participate in certain pledge activities, they would be “jumped out,” a gang term for a beating conducted by all members of the group. Howard’s complaint names as defendants San Jose State University, Sigma Gamma Rho, and various sorority members, including a quartet of women who, court records show, pleaded no contest earlier this year to misdemeanor hazing charges. The defendants--Princess Odom; Monique Hughes; Joslyn Beard; and Nicole Remble--were each sentenced to 90 days in jail, directed to serve two years of court probation, and barred from involvement with any sorority. Odom, Hughes, Beard, and Remble (all negroes) are pictured here, clockwise from upper left, in San Jose Police Department mug shots.’

Pearlstein: Put millionaires' tax money to good use (Washington Post) [ Nobody likes even the sound of higher taxes, particularly when the same goes for such waste as porkbarrel, political spending but especially the nation-bankrupting needless war spending, the black budgets, etc.. That said, Mr. Pearlstein is quite right, especially when one considers the source of the ‘largesse’, viz., nation-bankrupting war criminal moron dumbya bush who snidely smirked as he talked of ‘his (political) base’ and all the ‘politicking’ entailed in same. Remember… the nation is defacto bankrupt! Moreover, I don’t buy that ‘most productive’ sector being ‘disincentivized’ unless measured by the magnitude of their frauds (ie., wall street, etc.), transfer of the nation’s productive capacity (ie., u.s. ceo’s and politicians, etc., with few exceptions). Additionally, their marginal propensity to consume is less than that of lower wage earners (economics) ]

Bernanke: Regulators fell short in identifying problems (Washington Post) [ Now we know why and what the initials B.S. (for B*** S*** ‘no-recession-helicopter ben’) preceding bernanke stand for. Come on! Say the prosecution word and all’s forgiven. Everyone knows that the criminally insane on wall street have been / are engaged in a huge fraud and there are hundreds of trillions of worthless paper still out there and marked to anything to prove it. See Graham Summers’ exposé, infra. ] In a lengthy analysis of the financial crisis, the Fed chairman says the government did not do enough to protect consumers in the marketplace.

Karzai calls aide's arrest reminiscent of Soviet times (Washington Post) [ Exactly, eerily, certainly realistically reminiscent of the former soviet union is the american union in terms of economics (defacto bankrupt), geopolitics (intensely hated), and even factual similarity (the final straw), with an unmistakable modus operandi that gives rise to failure beyond the propaganda. After all, corruption is as american and pervasive in america as apple pizza pies and mother of hoods, etc. ]

Army supervisor was worried about leak suspect's mental health, attorney says (Washington Post) [ One cannot help but hearken back to a frequently deployed ‘government at its worst’ strategy, ie., Ellsberg/Pentagon papers, former soviet union, etc., in attempting to discredit such informants, etc., which of course is a telltale sign of america’s similar fate / decline / fall. ]

What if Roger Clemens is telling the truth? http://voices.washingtonpost.com/hard-hits/2010/08/what_if_roger_clemens_is_telli.html I ordinarily don’t comment on sports matters but this is one of those exceptions. While not in any way dismissing the seriousness of the prevalent use, for quite some time, of performance-enhancing drugs, my own position on the matter was to place an asterisk next to those who made the record-books so-doing (still matters of proof) with a more stringent policy going forward. Where does an incompetent, nation-bankrupting, non-performing congress get off going after a performance-driven baseball player when huge crimes, warcrimes, frauds from this same government are still unprosecuted? Ask the wall street frauds the tough questions … they’ll lie. Then, even assuming, arguendo, Clemens slipped up … picture the alice-in-wonderland surreal scene presided over by that mammalian rodent-like presence of that incompetent in the semblance of some beaver-toothed woodland creature as, ie., hedgehog, gopher, etc., amidst characters that would rival the famed mad tea party, mad-hatters all. There are far bigger fish to fry and of greater consequence to the nation but their lack of courage and incompetence is the only consistency on capital hill, and everyone knows it. How pathetic! After all, aren’t all three branches of the u.s. government a lie of themselves, and have a near single digit approval rates to prove it.

Pa. capital nearing bankruptcy (Washington Post) [ Sounds like a dry run for the nation’s capital. Drudgereport: MORGAN STANLEY: Government Bond Defaults Inevitable … Everyone who is capable of thinking knows america is defacto bankrupt. The question is, how did Morgan Stanley’s assessment escape scrutiny and follow-up by the press. Indeed, it is certainly a breach of duty to have done so in light of the implications. ] In a highly unusual move, the city of Harrisburg says it will not make a $3.3 million payment.

Automakers report weak sales (Washington Post) [ This really is sobering, yet totally lost on the frauds that be on wall street. ‘Cheapskates’? Mr. Whoriskey should be ashamed of himself. After all, you can’t spend what you don’t really have (unless you’re defacto bankrupt … america ) and, let’s not kid ourselves, Mr. Whoriskey has to be considered somewhat ‘ivory tower’. ] Chastened by the recession, more U.S. consumers have become cheapskates: They are saving more and driving older cars. And that, in part, explains the historically dismal sales reports released Wednesday by automakers.

Manufacturing rebound spurs stock rally (Washington Post) [ Riiiiight! That new global hub of (very high priced) manufacturing activity … Defacto bankrupt america …I don’t believe the ISM number for even a minute, even with the defacto bankrupt government’s market-frothing spending of money they definitely don’t have and believe the forecasters were closer to reality.] After their worst August in nine years, stocks kicked off September with a big snap-back rally, following the release Wednesday of surprisingly good news about the U.S. manufacturing sector.

Obama prods Mideast leaders (Washington Post ) [ The real question is … who is going to prod defacto bankrupt, war crimes nation america … on peace, that is. Then there’s that ‘oh, it’s just war crimes, illegal nuke-toting israel … laws, rules, un resolutions, etc., don’t apply to them factor and the concomitant skepticism attendant thereto. ] Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and Palestinian President Abbas are set to open direct peace talks.

Five reasons to be optimistic about the economy (Washington Post) Those Who Ignore History... [The aforementioned from The Pragmatic Capitalist is a cogent summary of extant problems which undoubtedly will end quite badly for the unwary (today’s folly represents a great opportunity to sell / take profits), infra, and should be read in tandem with Graham Summer’s exposé which follows. Yet, the situation as realistically bad as they’ve so presented same, is far more dire than even they posit for the u.s. particularly owing to structural problems now inherent to america’s economy / business model which bodes ill as never before in america’s relatively short history. U.S. Stocks Surge On Overseas Growth Riiiiight! Some of the same mainstream, (msnbc) ‘money honey’ drivel one would expect from Forbes faux ‘capitalist tool’ cheerleading squad, totally devoid of forward-looking analytical prowess and leaves you burned every time. Come on! Government Motors and Ford sales were down significantly, construction spending down, private sector jobs lost, and even BofA’s Merrill Lynch has sugar-coated the reality cutting the wall street frauds a break by calling this a ‘growth rececession’. The typical fraudulent wall street churn-and-earn computerized trade scam with built in commission volume for the way down. Sorry to say it, but the reality is: This is a global depression. This is a secular bear market in a global depression. The past up move was a manipulated bull (s***) cycle in a secular bear market. This has been a typically manipulated bubble as has preceded the prior crashes with great regularity that the wall street frauds and insiders commission and sell into. This is a typical wall street churn and earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud as in prior crashes’. This national decline, economic and otherwise, will not end until justice is served and the wall street frauds et als are criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed.]
Harry Dent, Jr. Economy will be in a Depression by 2011
The worst of this next depression is likely to hit between mid-2010 and mid-2013, especially around early 2011, but if the banking system continues to implode a deep downturn or depression could begin sometime in 2009 instead of 2010.
Dow will Fall to 3,800 – 4,500 by 2012
Nasdaq will Fall Below 1,100, its 2002 low, by late 2010 or mid-2012 at the latest.
Inflation will Increase until mid- 2010 and then turn to Deflation
Interest Rates will Increase
U.S. Dollar will Decline
Housing will Decline by 40 – 60% from Today’s Levels
Greatest Economic and Banking Crisis since the 1930s will Occur Between 2010 and 2012
Economists Herald New Great Depression The world is currently experiencing the modern day equivalent of the Great Depression, according to a prominent economist who has added his voice to scores of others now forecasting ongoing economic doom on a scale not seen since the 1930s.] The Pragmatic Capitalist ‘My position over the last 2 years has been as follows: this is a Main Street debt crisis. I have been highly critical of the government’s incessant interventionist policies over the last few years largely because they ignore the actual problems at hand. First it was Mr. Bernanke saving the banks because he believed the credit crisis started with the banking sector. The great monetarist gaffe ensued. Tim Geithner piled on with the PPIP. FASB jumped on board the bank rescue plan by altering the accounting rules. And then the icing on the cake was the Recovery Act, which, in my opinion, just shoveled money into the hole that had become the output gap, without actually trying to target the real cause of the crisis – those burdened by the debt. In essence, the various bailouts primarily targeted everyone except the people who really needed it.

A year ago I posted a story citing the many reasons why we were sinking into the deflationary Japanese trap. The primary flaw with the US response to the crisis was that we never actually confronted the problem at hand. I have often cited Japanese economists such as Richard Koo who appear to have a good grasp on the problems in Japan and now in the USA. In this case, I cited Keiichiro Kobayashi who is now looking most prescient:

We continue to ignore our past and the warnings from those who have dealt with similar financial crises. Keiichiro Kobayashi, Senior Fellow at the Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry is the latest economist with an in-depth understanding of Japan, who says the U.S. and U.K. are making all the same mistakes:

“Bad debt is the root of the crisis. Fiscal stimulus may help economies for a couple of years but once the “painkilling” effect wears off, US and European economies will plunge back into crisis. The crisis won’t be over until the nonperforming assets are off the balance sheets of US and European banks.”…

Read that last paragraph again. These are scarily accurate comments. While the USA claims to have many economists who understand the Japan disease and/or the Great Depression the policy actions we’ve undertaken do not appear to be in line with any understanding of this history.

What we’ve done over the last few years is repeat the mistakes of Japan’s past. Instead of confronting the debt problems head on we have simply tried to fill the output gap with short-term spending plans and impotent monetary policies. As Kobayashi presciently said, the “bad debt is the root of the crisis”. I think most mainstream economists, the administration and the Fed have continually misdiagnosed our problems. They have attempted to save the banking sector and simply fill in holes with spending plans that prop up markets, entice more borrowing and largely ignore the actual cause of the current crisis. Some economists have argued that the Recovery Act didn’t fail, but that it was too small. This is like saying that the cancer patient didn’t receive enough percocet. More percocet isn’t the cure. Targeting the cancer and trying to cut it out is the cure. Yet, we continue to ignore the lessons of Japan despite having so many “experts” on the Japanese disease. Therefore, we appear destined to repeat their horrid economic history assuming our current path isn’t miraculously altered.’

WHO ELSE IS CLUELESS IN THE FINANCIAL SECTOR? [ As I’ve previously said and reiterate here, the lunatic frauds on wall street are criminally insane and the only way to stop / deter their debilitating churn and earn among other computerized frauds is prosecution, jail, fines, and disgorgement! Once again they’re back to their huge fraudulent gains as seen this reporting period despite growing problem bank list, worthless paper from the prior fraud in the (hundreds of) trillions now marked to anything, and look at August results and worse to come; that money for their commissions / premiums must come from someplace, viz., the bubble which will deflate / crash. ] Graham Summers ‘Here’s a zinger of a news story:

Barclays Plc had no idea how big Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.’s futures-and-options trading business was when it considered taking over the defunct bank’s derivatives trades at exchanges in 2008, a Barclays executive said.“Lehman’s books were in such a mess that I don’t think they knew where they were,” Elizabeth James, a director of Barclays’s futures business, testified today in U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Manhattan. James worked on Barclays’s purchase of Lehman’s brokerage during the 2008 financial crisis.-- Bloomberg

I’ve railed for months that the central issue surrounding the Financial Crisis (derivatives) was not only misunderstood but completely ignored by the mainstream financial media. Here we are, nearly two years after Lehman Brothers went bust, and they’re telling us that Lehman had “no idea” what its options and futures exposure was.

Let’s put this into perspective.

The notional value of the derivatives market at the time that Lehman went bust was somewhere between $600 trillion and $1 Quadrillion (1,000 trillions). It was a market of inter-linked paper contracts entangling virtually every financial institution (including some non-financials), country (Greece, Italy used derivatives to get into the European union), and county (Birmingham Alabama is one example) in the world. As a market it was at least 20 times larger than the world stock market and somewhere north of 10 times World GDP.

In other words, this was the giant white elephant in the living room.

And here’s Lehman brothers, one of Wall Streets’ finest, most respected financial institutions which had been in business for over 150 years announcing that it had “no idea” “if it had sold $2 billion more options than it had bought, or whether it owned $4 billion more than it had sold.”

In today’s world of trillion dollar bailouts, $2-4 billion doesn’t sound like much, so let’s give some perspective here… in its golden days, Lehman Brother’s market cap was roughly $47 billion. So you’re talking about bets equal to an amount between five and 10% of its market cap. Not exactly chump change.

And Lehman had no idea where it was or how much it really owed.

Mind you, we’re only addressing Lehman’s options and futures derivatives, we’re completely ignoring its mortgage backed securities, collateralized debt obligations (CDOs), and other Level 3 assets. Options and futures are literally the “tip of the iceberg,” the most visible portion of the behemoth that was Lehman’s off balance sheet derivative issues. After all, these are regulated securities, unlike most derivatives.

Now, if the above statement doesn’t send shivers down your spine, have a look at the notional value of derivatives exposure at the top five financial institutions in the US (mind you, this chart is denominated in TRILLIONS). [chart]

If Lehman had “no idea” what it owned even when it came to options and futures (regulated derivatives), what are the odds that these other firms, whose derivative exposure is tens if not hundreds of times larger than that of Lehman’s, might similarly be “in the dark’ regarding their risk?

Moreover, who on earth might be on the opposite end of these deals? Other US counties like Birmingham Alabama (which JP Morgan transformed into 3rd world country status)? Other countries like Italy or Greece (who used Goldman’s financial engineering to get into the European Union)? My next-door neighbor’s house? Tim Geithner’s long-lost tax returns? WHO KNOWS?

The point is that the very same issues that nearly took the financial world under in 2008 still exist today. In fact, this time around the systemic risk is even more severe.

Consider that the Credit Default Swap (CDS) market which nearly took the financial system down in 2008 was roughly $50-60 trillion in size. In contrast, the interest rate based derivative market is in the ballpark of $500+ trillion.

Indeed, US commercial banks alone have $182 TRILLION in notional value of interest rate based derivatives outstanding right now. To put that ridiculous number in perspective it’s 13 times US GDP and roughly three times WORLD GDP…’

Predicting This Year's Bank Failures ‘The FDIC’s quarterly banking profile, providing data for quarter 2, was released today. The number of 2010 United States bank failures will likely exceed the 2009 failures, the FDIC reported. This was as I reported in this space back in May. Thus far this year there have been 118 bank closings, which compares to about 80 by the same time of year in 2009. The number of banks on the problem list is still rising. It is now at 829 banks…’

U.S. Auto Sales May Hit 28-Year Low as Discounts Flop Bloomberg | U.S. auto sales in August probably were the slowest for the month in 28 years as model-year closeout deals failed to entice consumers concerned the economy is worsening and they may lose their jobs.

A Termite-Riddled House: Treasury Bonds Gonzalo Lira | The United States will have a fiscal-debt-to-GDP ratio of 100% this year, and 110% next year — if not higher.

The Reckless Mess Created by The Fed Quantitative easing will put the American public at ease, at least temporarily. They do not realize it but the American and world economies are in a deliberate state of slow collapse. Yes, the Fed has created a terrible mess. They have been totally unprofessional and reckless.

Gold Is Surging This Morning, And Within A Rock’s Throw Of A Brand New Record Oh hello. The high is just above $1260, so it could happen today easily. Stocks are rallying, too, so you know the dollar is getting whacked. It is.

Second Leg of Crisis Beginning: Hedge Fund Manager September and October hold bad news for stock markets and banks remain overleveraged as we head into the second leg of the financial crisis according to Pedro De Noronha, the managing partner at Noster Capital in London.

Winners And Losers The reality is that it has now become undeniable that globalism has arrived and we are now part of a world economy that is integrating at lightning speed. Unfortunately, all of this globalism has created some very clear winners and losers. But most middle class Americans are in such a deep sleep that they don’t even realize that they are the losers.

Drudgereport: Auto sales: Worst August since 1983...

National / World

Death By Globalism Paul Craig Roberts | The Federal Reserve will monetize the federal government deficit. The result will be high inflation, possibly hyper-inflation and high unemployment simultaneously.

What Obama Didn’t Say About Afghanistan Ray McGovern | My Fellow Americans… so much for Iraq. Turning now to Afghanistan…

Vaccine Death Coverup Implodes Worldwide Infowars.com | Once again the government wants to push it’s mercury filled vaccines on everyone, especially children.

Increase in federal spending hits record (Washington Post) [ Sounds like a plan … the ‘increase the depth of the nation’s bankruptcy’ plan! And, unlike other american plans, this plan’s working … that bankruptcy thing … but otherwise, not! ]

Is the U.S. Bankrupt? [YES!] (at Motley Fool) The Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts recently reported that bankruptcy filings between April and June hit a four-year high. Consumer bankruptcies rose 21 percent while business bankruptcies increased eight percent. The list of corporate bankruptcies over the last couple of years includes big names like Lehman Brothers, Washington Mutual, and GM. And financial institutions like Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), Citigroup (NYSE: C), Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) received billions of dollars through the federal government's Troubled Asset Relief Program. Should investors add the U.S. government to that list of big name bankruptcies? I recently asked Boston University economics professor Lawrence Kotlikoff, author of Jimmy Stewart is Dead: Ending the World's Ongoing Financial Plague with Limited Purpose Banking.
Mac Greer: Larry, I noticed the headline or the title of a recent article that you wrote, US is Bankrupt and We Don't Even Know It (see infra)

Home prices up 4.2 percent in U.S. (Washington Post) [And america and ultimately taxpayers paid for every percentage point with money they and soon taxpayers don’t have and experts say the expiration of same will further be felt in the form of declining real estate prices going forward. ]

For banks, good news on earnings but not risk of failure (Washington Post) ( The same fraudulent game plan that caused the previous and continuing debacle: The following from Graham Summers is truly mind-boggling and a must-read: WHO ELSE IS CLUELESS IN THE FINANCIAL SECTOR? [ As I’ve previously said and reiterate here, the lunatic frauds on wall street are criminally insane and the only way to stop / deter their debilitating churn and earn among other computerized frauds is prosecution, jail, fines, and disgorgement! Once again they’re back to their huge fraudulent gains as seen this reporting period despite growing problem bank list, worthless paper from the prior fraud in the (hundreds of) trillions now marked to anything and the current fraud, and look at August (market) results and worse to come, that money for their commissions / premiums must come from someplace, viz., the bubble which will crash. ] ) Lenders post their biggest quarterly profit in almost three years, even as the number of banks at risk of failure rose to 11 percent of insured institutions.

Predicting This Year's Bank Failures ‘The FDIC’s quarterly banking profile, providing data for quarter 2, was released today. The number of 2010 United States bank failures will likely exceed the 2009 failures, the FDIC reported. This was as I reported in this space back in May. Thus far this year there have been 118 bank closings, which compares to about 80 by the same time of year in 2009. The number of banks on the problem list is still rising. It is now at 829 banks…’

Ron Paul to Fed, Ft. Knox: Show Me the Gold at Minyanville

The Deteriorating Macro Picture

  1. The explosion in private debt (excessive housing borrowing, excessive corporate debt, etc) levels would reveal the private sector as unable to sustain positive economic growth, de-leveraging and deflation would ensue.
  2. Government intervention would help moderately boost aggregate demand, improve bank balance sheets, improve sentiment, boost asset prices but fail to result in sustained economic recovery as private sector balance sheet recession persists.
  3. Extremely depressed estimates and corporate cost cutting would improve margins and generate a moderate earnings rebound, but would come under pressure in 2010 as margin expansion failed to continue at the 2009 rate.
  4. The end of government intervention in H2 2010 will reveal severe strains in housing and will reveal the private sector as still very weak and unable to sustain economic growth on its own.

The rebound in assets was surprisingly strong and the ability of corporations to sustain bottom line growth has been truly impressive – far better than I expected. However, I am growing increasingly concerned that the market has priced in overly optimistic earnings sustainability – in other words, estimates and expectations have overshot to the upside.

What we’ve seen over the last few years is not terribly complex in my opinion. The housing boom created what was in essence a massively leveraged household sector. The problems were compounded by the leveraging in the financial sector, however, this was merely a symptom of the real underlying problem and not the cause of the financial crisis (despite what Mr. Bernanke continues to say and do to fix the economy) …’

Gold Surges To Near $1,250, As Stealthy Flight To Safety Accelerates, Stocks Oblivious As stocks continue to correlate with exactly nothing, and are once again lost in their own HFT dreamworld, which fools Atari in believing the toxic crap it is churning millions of times each second is worth something (and the exchanges gladly continue to pay liquidity rebates for said churn), the capital continues to quietly flow to safety.

Bankrupt Miami in Fiscal Emergency, Breaks Employee Contracts, Hikes Property Taxes In an enormously foolhardy attempt to make ends meet, in spite of the fact that Miami home prices have been hammered and 1-in-8 are unemployed, the County keeps pouring on the painful tax and fee increases.

Gold Rallying to $1,500 as Soros’s Bubble Inflates Investors are accumulating enough bullion to fill Switzerland’s vaults twice over as gold’s most- accurate forecasters say the longest rally in at least nine decades has further to go no matter what the economy holds.

30 Statistics That Prove The Elite Are Getting Richer, The Poor Are Getting Poorer And The Middle Class Is Being Destroyed Not everyone has been doing badly during the economic turmoil of the last few years. In fact, there are some Americans that are doing really, really well. While the vast majority of us struggle, there is one small segment of society that is seemingly doing better than ever.

Obama promises new efforts to boost economy (Washington Post) [ New efforts with the same old failed team covering for the previous same old failed team? The same promised new efforts which were nothing new at all; viz., focus on new war in Afghanistan, increase budget deficits, a penchant for the very perps who precipitated the financial crisis and who should have been prosecuted, jailed, fined and disgorgement imposed, etc.. No details? What’s the matter wobama? Teleprompter not working? ]Obama offered no new proposals during brief remarks in the Rose Garden, saying he would provide details "in the days and weeks to come."

Car sales, spending up, but experts not convinced of trend (Washington Post) [ I’d say time for ‘mouth to mouth resuscitation’ and a closer look isn’t even necessary. Some experts? Just ask any guy on main street. Treading water? I’d say time for post-mortem on the drowning victim.] But a closer look at those car sales raises questions about whether the auto market - and consumer spending as a whole - are indeed on an upward arc or whether they are just treading water.

Obama to loosen rules on technology exports (Washington Post) [ Oooooh! Sounds like a continuation of the ‘clinton plan’ regarding missile among other technologies to China which worked so well for america in maintaining its prominently global position vis-à-vis communist china et als. Come on! wobama’s so done! Let the next president determine the probity of such a course! ] White House is overhauling the decades-old rules for the export of sensitive military and other technology, jettisoning what industry groups criticize as an antiquated "Cold War" set of regulations.

In the Middle East, it's still 1947 (Washington Post) [ Indeed it should be! Among the few times the cia was correct, and they’ve been trying to put square pegs in round holes ever since, to america’s substantial detriment. I wonder what what those american sailors of the US Liberty killed by the israelis would say? USS Liberty Survivor Threatened by Unknown Israeli This is what happened to Phillip F. Tourney, decorated war hero and survivor of Israel’s premeditated attack on the USS Liberty 43 years ago. On the evening of Aug. 6, Tourney was verbally threatened by a foreign national claiming to work for the government of israel. As for the purported disdain shown for war mongerer netanayahu, if only wobama’s actions matched his words, the same would represent a major plus for him and the nation of america, so sorely in need of pluses whether the same be budgetary or economic or geopolitical. In fact, for America to abrogate 1948 would guarantee America’s survival, prosperity, and global hegemony in the most positive sense. ]

In 1948, U.S. Secretary of Defense James Forrestal, an opponent of the creation of a Jewish state in Palestine, warned that, even though failure to go along with the Zionists might cost President Truman the states of New York, Pennsylvania, and California, it was about time that somebody should pay some consideration to whether we might not lose the United States. Mr. Forrestal was absolutely correct! Isn’t that exactly what’s happened to defacto bankrupt america in intractable decline.

TIME TO REVOKE AND NULLIFY THE BALFOUR DECLARATION AND ABROGATE THE CREATION OF THE NATION STATE OF ISRAEL IN THE INTERESTS OF FAIRNESS, JUSTICE, PEACE AND PROSPECTIVE PROSPERITY FOR THIS WORLD!

Obama speech on Iraq has risks (Washington Post) [ Yeah, very true indeed! The main one being that he’s supplanting that illegal, unnecessary, nation-bankrupting war with yet another in Afghanistan which will not be lost on those who supported his candidacy based on promised end to unnecessary war policies which have diverted time, attention, ill-afforded resources including personnel and continue to do so even as defacto bankrupt america crumbles. ]

Home prices up 4.2 percent in U.S. (Washington Post) [And america and ultimately taxpayers paid for every percentage point with money they and soon taxpayers don’t have and experts say the expiration of same will further be felt in the form of declining real estate prices going forward. ]

In the Eye of a Financial Katrina - http://seekingalpha.com/author/wall-street-sector-selector Sunday, August 29th, was the fifth anniversary of Hurricane Katrina’s landfall along the Gulf Coast and all of us vividly remember the horrific images of that day and the days and weeks after. Five years later, the Gulf Coast has come a long way but most would agree there’s still have a long way to go and many scars yet to be healed. In the world of money and investing, the Financial Katrina hit three years ago this month with the beginning of the sub prime meltdown that led to the “Great Recession.” For the past year or so, we have been in what appeared to be a recovery but now looks more like the eye of the storm; today it is quite likely that the second wall of the hurricane is now rapidly bearing down upon us. The news this week was intensely negative and the only bright spot came on Friday with Chairman Bernanke’s speech at Jackson Hole in which he essentially told us, “don’t worry, be happy” and that all would be well. In spite of the Chairman’s calming tone, Wall Street Sector Selector remains in the “red flag flying” mode and we believe that an intense storm lies just ahead. Looking at My Screens On a technical basis, one can only be bearish and the two charts below tell a quick and scary story. [ chart courtesy of StockCharts.com ]In the chart of the S&P 500 above we see the “death cross” highlighted by the downward pointing arrow wherein the 50-Day Moving Average crossed below the 200-Day Moving Average which is a widely followed indicator of lower stock prices ahead. In the upper box we see the 14-day RSI pointing upwards from relatively oversold levels indicating that a short term bounce could be forthcoming, while the red horizontal line shows the support at 1040 which was tested and held every day last week. From this display we can conclude that we are in a bear market, slightly oversold and near support that, if broken, could lead to a quick drop to the July lows of 1010. [ chart courtesy of StockCharts.com ] The point and figure chart above paints an even more ominous picture. A double bottom “sell” signal was generated on August 11th and the index has now broken through the blue bullish support line, indicating the onset of a new bear market in this major index. Support and resistance lines in point and figure charting tend to act like firm walls and mark major turning points in direction, and this recent trend change is the first since March, 2009, when the lows were hit and last year’s unprecedented rally began. The breach of this bullish support line is a major development and in my opinion is an unmistakable sign that it’s time to head for the storm shelters. The View from 35,000 Feet The fundamental news was equally shocking this week as existing home sales declined to 3.8 million units for July from a previous level of 5.26 million. This number is a record low and single family home sales were at the lowest levels since 1995. Truly we are in what could only be described as a housing market depression, and this comes in spite of historically low mortgage rates that people appear to be ignoring. Seemingly almost nobody wants to buy a house at any rate or any price. New home sales fared no better, declining to record lows, as well, while 25% of mortgage holders are currently “upside down” in their homes, owning more than they’re worth, and 15% are in some part of the foreclosure process. Beyond the dismal news from the housing market, the July Durable Goods report was dismal and points to an ongoing slowdown in capital spending and on Friday 2nd Quarter GDP was revised downward to 1.6% from a previous 2.4% in what could only be described as a terrifying result in light of the stimulus and Federal Reserve intervention required to generate this paltry number. More and more analysts are pointing to further reductions in GDP for 3rd Quarter towards flat or even negative territory while the stock market seems currently priced for 1.5-2.5% growth and this creates a situation which is unlikely to have a positive outcome going forward. Looking across the spectrum of noted analysts, we find Princeton economist and former Federal Reserve member Alan Blinder writing an article in the Wall Street Journal titled, “The Fed is Running out of Ammo” and noted Yale economist Robert Shiller appeared on the Wall Street Journal’s “Big Interview” and said that a double dip “may be imminent.” And finally Albert Edwards, the noted analyst from Societe General says to look for 450 on the S&P 500, a roll back to 1982 levels. Fidelity reports that in the second quarter 25% of people took hardship withdrawals from their 401ks, a number that represents a 10 year high, to help them meet living expenses and the ECRI remained in recessionary territory with a -9.9% reading last week. On Friday Intel (INTC) cut its earnings and revenue forecast and across the Atlantic Ireland was downgraded and given a negative outlook by S&P. Also in Europe, interest rates and Credit Default Swap pricing continued to rise as their sovereign debt situation continues to erode confidence in the outcome of the European Central Bank’s historic intervention efforts of a couple of months ago. The bond market remains priced for Armageddon, forming what many say will one day be the biggest bubble of all time and lead to a historic crash in the bond market somewhere down the road. But on Friday, Dr. Bernanke cheered world markets when he told us that he expected no double dip, that growth would continue and improve and that he and his colleagues stood ready to do whatever it takes to avoid deflation and that he had the tools to lead the global economy to recovery. This upbeat assessment comes after unprecedented government stimulus, interest rates lowered to near zero and $1.7 Trillion of asset purchases by the Fed since the onset of the Great Recession. So one can only wonder how this is going to work. If the medicine hasn’t worked so far, why would a little more of the same medicine make a difference? What It All Means As we’ve been saying for weeks, a double dip looks highly probable with the odds growing daily, lower stock prices look likely and to make your chest feel even tighter, summer is almost over, traders will be back from the Hamptons, the kids will be back in school and we’re about to enter the dreaded month of September which is historically the worst month for stock market performance. At Wall Street Sector Selector, we remain in the “Red Flag” mode, expecting lower prices ahead, and we forecast that the second storm wall of the Financial Katrina is about to hit.

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