September 21, 2010 posts

Business / Economic / Financial

[ This link to a somewhat more cumulative blog posts page will precede current days news since most all topics remain current in terms of impact and longer-term effect and can be searched by topical index term more easily. The same is provided since the blog site http://alpeiablog.blogspot.com has just been censored as to size by google which is typical for google as nsa / cia / gov’t shill as more are becoming aware of. The same is true for microsoft, another co. that’s seen their best days and relies on the government to maintain their monopoly. Up to now the better page http://www.scribd.com/alpeia is provided for ease of formatting and clarity thereby while the Washington Post page is the real deal but without formatting http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/community/mypost/index.html?plckPersonaPage=PersonaComments&plckUserId=alpeia&newspaperUserId=alpeia ]

IS THE RECESSION REALLY OVER? SIMON MAIERHOFER, ON TUESDAY SEPTEMBER 21, 2010, 12:29 PM EDT

The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - a panel of economists entrusted with the responsibility to officially declare the beginning and end of recessions - declared the end of this recession. But wait, amidst the sound of popping champagne corks, the snore of complacency and a cheer leading media, you can hear the economy's distress signals.

THE GOOD NEWS

But who likes to hear about gloom and doom. Let's focus on the good news. As per NBER, the longest recession the country has endured since World War II officially ended in June 2009 (see chart below). During this recession, the economy has lost over 7 million jobs while the major market indexes a la Dow Jones (DJI: ^DJI), S&P (SNP: ^GSPC), Nasdaq (Nasdaq: ^IXIC), and Russell 2000 (Chicago Options: ^RUT) lost well over 50% of their value. By declaring that the recession ended 14 months ago, NBER takes advantage of the much-coveted privilege of evaluating the economy in hindsight, as it did in December 2008 when it declared that the recession had started 12 month earlier. (chart)

Investors don't have the luxury of placing trades based on hindsight and need to rely on forward looking data, not the rear view mirror. Based purely on forward looking indicators, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter predicted the biggest counter trend rally since the October all-time highs on March 2, 2009 and recommended buying long and leveraged long ETFs, such as the Financial Select Sector SPDRS (NYSEArca: XLF - News), Technology Select Sector SPDRs (NYSEArca: XLK - News), Ultra S&P ProShares (NYSEArca: SSO - News), Ultra Financial ProShares (NYSEArca: UYG - News) and many others. Are forward looking indicators now in line with NBER?

THE BAD NEWS

What does the NBER base its decisions on? To make its determination, the NBER looks at figures that make up the nation's gross domestic product, incomes, employment, and industrial activity.

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT

Obviously, recent downward revisions to the GDP did not prevent NBER from its assessment that the recession had ended. The chart below shows recent revisions to GDP. (chart)

Telling the 15 million unemployed Americans that the recession has ended is like telling a homeless person that real estate prices (NYSEArca: IYR - News) are about to pick up. It's ironic at best and cruel at worst.

UNEMPLOYMENT

The chart below shows the real percentage of unemployed Americans expressed by the U-6 unemployment data, published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. With unemployment near an all-time high, can the recession really be over? (chart)

CONSUMER SENTIMENT

It is said that consumer spending makes up about two thirds to three quarters of the economy. What causes consumer spending? Money flow and confidence in future growth are often the catalysts. Judging by the unemployment numbers, money flow is limited. This no doubt has had an effect on consumer confidence. The chart below shows the Consumer Confidence Index. If the recession is over, why is confidence near an all-time low? (chart)

Friday's release of the University of Michigan's Confidence Index was another blow against the economy. Based on this report, Americans planning to buy a home have fallen to a five-month low. Also, Americans planning to buy a car have dropped to the lowest level since December 2008, and 20% of Americans incomes are at risk of deflating. Not only is the lack of spending power a practical threat to any economy, it is also a statistical threat to future GDP numbers. A piece of statistical news that fits into the picture of falling consumer confidence is that the nation's poverty rate jumped to 14.3% (datasource: U.S. Census Bureau). Poverty in the U.S. is defined by a family of four living on less than $21,954 a year. Currently, 43.6 million Americans fall into this category. But perhaps this doesn't make a difference, as the government is counting on the faithful flock of economists that don't see their own demise and the few thousand Wall Streeters' that cashed in on multi-billion dollar bonuses to lift the economy.

THE SILVER LINING

Even though the NBER declared this recession over, it doesn't preclude the occurrence of another recession. According to NBER, if the economy starts shrinking again, it could mark the onset of a much feared but unexpected double-dip recession. As the first chart shows, this happened in the early 1980s.

NO DOUBLE DIP

To Wall Street's cheerleaders, the worst-case scenario is that the economy is stuck between a rock and a hard place as illustrated by this Bloomberg headline: 'Escaping double dip still means no relief for jobless.' As for investors, they seem not to care much. Monday saw U.S. stocks (NYSEArca: VTI - News) rally by 1.5%. International stocks (NYSEArca: EFA - News) and emerging markets (NYSEArca: EEM - News) were up 1.5 -1.7%. Even European stocks (NYSEArca: FEZ - News) were up, although the European Central Bank had to intervene to stabilize the Irish bond markets on Friday. In other words, the ECB had to prevent another Greece-style default. In fact, does not the emergence of yet another European country defaulting, remind us of the February - April 2010 rally. This rally occurred on ultra-low volume and against a backdrop of bad news. It then stopped all of a sudden for seemingly no specific reason. On April 16, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter warned: 'the pieces are in place for a major decline. We are simply waiting for the proverbial domino to fall over and set off a chain reaction.' The situation is similar right now. Even though stocks have broken out of the 1,040 - 1,130 trading range, they have done so on low volume and increased investor optimism. Within the past three weeks, the percentage of bullish investors tracked by AAII has soared by 30.15%, to the highest level in over a year. This doesn't mean that stocks can't inch up a bit further, just as they did earlier in April, but a look at all pieces of the puzzle doesn't paint the picture of a new bull market. The October issue of the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter evaluates the bullish and bearish potential of the market with a unique approach, along with corresponding target levels and profit strategies.

Bulls Go to Extremes: Don't Buy the "Breakout", Sell It, Prechter Says Stocks jumped Monday with the Dow rising 1.4% to 10,753 and the S&P gaining 1.5% to 1143, its highest close in four months. The S&P eclipsing 1130 for the first time since late June would seem to confirm the long-awaited technical breakout for the index, and could pull many reluctant investors off the sidelines. "Many automatic buy and sell orders are set around market milestones such as these, and investors watch those levels closely for clues about which way the market may go next," the AP reports. But the wise move now is to sell this recent rally, says Robert Prechter, president of Elliott Wave International. "I think we're getting ready for another leg on the downside," Prechter says, citing evidence of what he says are extreme levels of optimism, including:

• -- The most-recent AAII poll shows bearish sentiment at 24%, less than at the Dow's peak in October 2007.
• Mutual fund cash positions being at record lows, which Prechter says should be taken at "face value" rather than the result of massive redemptions from equity mutual funds.
• The TRIN Index (a breadth indicator) at one of its lowest levels in recent years, indicating extreme buying pressure of stocks at 52-week highs, i.e. investors chasing momentum/performance.

In addition, Prechter notes volume has been punk during the rally in recent weeks a sign, to him, that buyers lack conviction. The veteran market-watcher says the current environment is similar to the 1930-31 period. "The market can make its high while optimism makes a peak despite the fact you're going stair-step lower," he says. "What we had in May with the ‘flash crash' was the first wave down." Prechter predicts these periods of downturns sandwiched around 4-5 months of recovery "where people think we've hit the bottom" is likely to "go one for quite a long time" until a true bottom is reached well below the March 2009 lows, much less today's levels.

Macro Insights From Seth Klarman Seth Klarman, the legendary hedge fund manager at Baupost is increasingly concerned about the macro investing environment. With the retirements of several prominent hedge fund managers in recent months he’s clearly not alone in his thinking. In a recent interview (see here for the entire interview) Klarman provides some excellent macro insights and explains why he is more worried about the world than he has been in his entire career. Klarman echoes comments I have often made here. In effect, the recovery has been almost entirely artificial and will result in unquantifiable future threats. Klarman calls the current market a “Hostess Twinkie”:

A Hostess Twinkie is a confection that has made many childhoods slightly happier, but it is composed of totally artificial ingredients. My context, of about 6–12 months ago, was that virtually everything was being manipulated by the government. Nothing was natural in the markets. Interest rates were held at zero, the government was buying all kinds of securities—notably, mortgage securities—and who knows what else has ended up on the Fed’s balance sheet.

We have had lending programs—Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP), Cash for Clunkers, and even Cash for Caulkers. We just don’t know the full extent to which investors have been manipulated. But certainly, the government wants people to buy equities, to invest so that the market will move higher, creating a wealth effect or at least eliminating the negative wealth effect in order to make people feel better about their situation, to restore a degree of optimism so that the economy might recover.

I am worried to this day about what would happen to the markets, to the economy if, in the midst of all these manipulations, we realized that they are, in fact, a Twinkie. I think the answer is that no one knows, including those in Washington. Will the economy continue to recover and grow at a healthy rate or will we sink into a double-dip recession? As we can all see, the high degree of government involvement continues.

Of course, the USA isn’t the only country kicking the can. Klarman cites the European bailout as another game of government kick the can:

The European bailout is gargantuan. I doubt it will work because it kicks the can further down the road and is yet one more manipulation that encourages people to own securities. It is almost as if our government is in the business of giving people bad advice: “We are going to hold rates at zero. Please buy stocks or junk bonds that will yield [an inadequate] 5 or 6 percent.” In effect, it forces unsophisticated investors to speculate wildly on securities that are too overvalued.

All of this has Klarman more concerned than he has ever been. That’s a mouthful from a legend like Klarman who has seen more than his fair share of cycles:

I am more worried about the world, more broadly, than I have ever been in my career.

Like myself, Klarman believes there are unquantifiable repercussions from the bailouts:

I am also troubled that we didn’t get the value out of this crisis that we should have. The Great Depression led us to a generation—or even two generations—of changed behavior. I grew up hearing about how our grandparents had a “depression mentality.” It’s awful to have a depression, but it’s a great thing to have a depression mentality because it means that we are not speculating, we are not living beyond our means, we don’t quit our job to take a big risk because we know we might not get another job. There is something stable about a country, a society built on those values.

In some sense, from the recent crisis we have developed a “really bad couple of weeks” mentality, and that’s not enough to tide us through, teach us to avoid future bubbles, and ensure a strong recovery.

Klarman isn’t a macro expert (he’s a bottom up investor), but something just doesn’t pass the sniff test with all these bailouts. How can the global economy continually bailout the losers without ever allowing these excesses to truly pass from the system? Klarman says we will eventually reach a tipping point:

A tipping point is invisible, as we just saw in Greece. In most situations, everything appears fine until it’s not fine, until, for example, no one shows up at a Treasury auction. In the meantime, we can be lulled into thinking all is well, that the United States will always be rated triple-A. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner speaks as if—at least in his public statements—he has been lulled into thinking that the United States will always be triple-A. That kind of thinking guarantees that someday the United States will no longer be triple-A. A sovereign deserves to be rated triple-A only if it has valuable assets, a good education system, a great infrastructure, and the rule of law, all of which are called into question by an eroding infrastructure, a government that changes the law or violates it whenever there is a crisis, and a legislature that shows no fiscal responsibility. There is an old saying, “How did you go bankrupt?” And the answer is, “Gradually, and then suddenly.” The impending fiscal crisis in the United States will make its appearance in the same way.

Klarman finds the current environment particularly difficult because many of the hedges that have been working are more speculative in nature. He finds little value in most commodities (with the exception of land) because commodities offer no real cash flow and instead rely almost entirely on some future “greater fool” buying the asset from you. Klarman makes an exception with gold, however:

Gold is unique because it has the age-old aspect of being viewed as a store of value. Nevertheless, it’s still a commodity and has no tangible value, and so I would say that gold is a speculation. But because of my fear about the potential debasing of paper money and about paper money not being a store of value, I want some exposure to gold.

Klarman sees all of this government intervention resulting in higher rates of inflation:

I think the odds are low that such high inflation will happen in the near future, but looking ahead five years, it becomes more likely, although certainly not a 50/50 chance. With a very limited initial outlay, I think a hedge like ours is a reasonable protection.

Ultimately, the downside of the current bailout fever comes in the form of an intangible risk. Capitalism without losers is like Catholocism without hell. Klarman sees no way of avoiding future collapses given that we’ve never actually been forced to learn from our past collapses:

Essentially, the problem is that government intervention interfered with the lessons investors needed to learn. Those who stared into the metaphorical abyss are right back at it, with the possible exception of college endowments, for whom the pain has been long lasting because of their spend rate. Almost everybody else is drinking the Kool Aid again, and it is very troubling. We could have another serious collapse, and people would again not be prepared for it.

Secular Bear Market Myths, Part 2 Claassen In yesterday's Secular Bear Market Myths Part 1 we debunked the myth that a secular bear market requires poor earnings growth. In part two, we illustrate the typical price pattern of a thirteen to sixteen year secular bear market and use that pattern to provide a near term and long term Market Outlook. The market may be nearing a critical juncture. If you want to know what to expect, read on ….

A Secular Pattern

Inflation Adjusted (Real) S&P 500 Index 1953-1991 (chart)

After adjusting for inflation, both the high inflation driven secular bear markets and the deflation driven secular bear markets take on a more similar form. This is especially true when a secular bear market is defined as the period between the peak and trough of the average P/E ratio. Using the numbers on the above chart we see that from the 1966 peak in the P/E ratio [1] (see chart of Shiller’s CAPE in first report) to the 1982 low [4] was sixteen years. Both the nominal and real price peak was in late 1968, thirteen years from the 1982 low. This is indicative of the typical secular bear market; a period of sixteen to thirteen years.

There are seven years between the two peaks [1] and [2] along with two major declines [3]. After the second major decline, there is a relief rally [R], then a multi-month trading range as a period of distribution, followed by a multi-year decline to complete the bear market [4].
S&P Composite 1917-1951 with Present S&P 500 (chart)

We can see a similar pattern of behavior in the deflationary bear market of the 1930’s. Yes, the market overlay in orange is our present S&P 500. We will get to that next.

Like the inflation adjusted 1970’s (and 1900-1921) the major highs and lows follow a pattern. The entire period from 1929 to 1942 encompasses thirteen years. The two major tops [1] and [2] are seven years apart. There are two major declines [3], a relief rally [R] followed by a prolonged sideways period, and finally a decline to complete the bear market [4].

The 2000 - 2016? Bear Market

Overlaid in orange on the above chart is the current S&P 500 with the P/E ratio peak in 2000 lined up with the P/E ratio peak in 1929. Not surprisingly, the peak [2] and troughs [3] all line up within a couple of months of their 1930’s counterparts. It appears the rally from the March ’09 low was the relief rally [R]. If our current S&P 500 follows the same path as these previous bear markets, we should expect a prolonged sideways period and decline to final low of the bear market sometime in-between 2013 and 2016. As illustrated in the historical chart of the S&P Composite, when this secular bear market is complete the trailing Shiller CAPE ratios should be under ten. The higher the earnings from now until that time, the less the market will need to decline to complete this period and move into the next secular bull market. Conversely, the lower the earnings, the more the market averages would need to decline to meet their sub 10 trough in the index P/E ratio.
Inflation Adjusted (Real) S&P 500 1959-1983 with Current Inflation Adjusted S&P 500 (chart)

As nicely as the current bear market has fit within the profile of the past, the chart above and the chart below should serve as signs of caution not to expect too tight a correlation between past markets and the present. The patterns of past market behavior are a good guide; they help us understand the environment we are in and keep our expectations in check. But the turning points that look so perfect on the monthly charts have still been accurate only within a +/- of several months. In hind sight that does not seem like much, in real time two or three months can feel like an eternity.

Also, each secular period is unique, and the market will respond to that uniqueness in a manner different than what our past market roadmaps might lead us to expect. For example, when we line up the current market with the 1966 P/E ratio peak (above), although the major turning points line up, there is a unique rally peak in 1968 (see above chart). That difference can be explained by the difference between inflation and deflation based bear markets. But, for now, the current environment is not completely identical to either the pure inflation or deflation periods.

Obviously, current inflation is not the least bit similar to the 1970’s and despite deflationary pressures; this is not the Great Depression. We do believe that this cycle will have more in common with deflationary cycles than inflation. If we look back again at the P/E chart on (reposted below) we can see that secular bear markets have cycled between a falling interest rate and falling P/E environment, and a rising interest rate falling P/E environment. The current economic background is more similar to the deflationary period. In previous Market Updates we have illustrated how, since 1998, the intermarket correlations have been indicative of a market that fears deflation more than inflation, which fits very well with this cycle.
P/E Ratio (CAPE) for US Equities and Long Term Interest Rates: source RJ Shiller (chart)

NASDAQ Composite Aligned with Nikkei 225 1984-2010 (chart)

Japan is another example of a deflationary bear market. We have shown the above chart before, with the overlay of the NASDAQ Composite matching the year 2000 peak of the NASDAQ and the 1990 (December 1989) peak of the Nikkei 225. The major turning points fit very well with the pattern, but the volatility between the turning points is very different. For example, where our S&P Composite model suggest a modest decline followed by a sideways period (after [R]), the Nikkei 225 collapsed without pause. It is very unlikely that the NASDAQ Composite will decline at same rate with which the Nikkei 225 declined at this stage of their bear market. It is more likely that the sharpness of the Nikkei’s decline from 2000 [R] to 2003 [4] will be a feature unique to their bear market. We should also note that it is apparent from our model that Japan’s bear market should have been complete in 2003 [4]. The Nikkei’s rally from the 2003 low to 2007 high was an astounding 140%! But, the decline that followed, and the current persistent deflation shows they have not yet pulled themselves out of their economic bear market. Is this because of incorrect monetary or fiscal policy decisions? Have we made similar policy mistakes? We don’t know and won’t know until after the fact.

Thus, while we have a good road map to follow, we must still diligently monitor our indicators and market conditions. It is more important to follow what the market is doing, than what it should do relative to any predictive model.

Short Term Outlook

The above pages were originally written in June, 2010. The addendum below is a short term outlook as of September 19, 2010. (chart)
Current Dow Jones Industrial Average Daily with NASDAQ 100 Year 2000 Overlay

…’

Homebuilder Confidence Remains in the Dump

U.S. household net worth drops Reuters | U.S. household wealth fell by $1.5 trillion in the second quarter.

For the Unemployed Over 50, Fears of Never Working Again New York Times | A growing number of people in their 50s and 60s are starting to worry that they may be discarded from the work force — forever.

Gold Hits Another Record as Dollar Tumbles On Fed Announcement Kurt Nimmo | Another example of the indispensability of gold as a hedge against the bankster engineered economic implosion.

Fed Responds To Allegations Of POMO-based Stock Market Manipulation It is no secret that the Federal Reserve, and its now semi-daily interventions in market liquidity via ever increasing Permanent Open Market Operations (aka POMOs, next on deck – Wednesday and Friday for a total of about $7-8 billion), is rather hell bent on creating the impression that the economy is alive and well.

For Sale: Welcome to United States of Tent Cities As the mortgage crisis cuts deep, real estate firms say over a million Americans may lose their homes to foreclosure this year.

Gold Is Not Going Up: The Dollar Is Collapsing Jim Rickards on CNBC talks about gold, the dollar and their relationship.

America Is Today In Worse Shape Than Japan During Its Lost Decade? BIS – the central banks’ central bank – agrees that Americans are in worse shape than the Japanese.

(9-21-10) Dow 10,761 +7 Nasdaq 2,349 -6 S&P 500 1,139 -3 [CLOSE- OIL $73.52 (-54% for year 2008) (RECORD TRADING HIGH $147.27) GAS $2.74 (reg. gas in LAND OF FRUITS AND NUTS $3.11 REG./ $3.26 MID-GRADE/ $3.35 PREM./ $3.69 DIESEL) / GOLD $1,274 (+24% for year 2009) / SILVER $20.65 (+47% for year 2009) PLATINUM $1,623 (+56% for year 2009) / DOLLAR= .75 EURO, 84 YEN, .63 POUND STERLING, ETC. (How low can you go - LOWER)/ 10 YR NOTE YIELD 2.59% …..… AP Business Highlights ...Yahoo Market Update... T. Rowe Price Weekly Recap – Stocks / Bonds / Currencies - Domestic / International This Is a Secular Bear Market and The End of Buy and Hold … and Hope MARKET MANIPULATION AND HOW THE LATEST BUBBLE-FRAUD PRE-COMING CRASH IS BEING ACCOMPLISHED 3-11-10 6 Theories On Why the Stock Market Has Rallied 3-9-10 [archived website file] Risks Lurk for ETF Investors The bull market that never was/were beyond wall street b.s. when measured in gold Property Values Projected to Fall 12% in 2010 Jan 31, 2010 The Week Ahead: Risk Is Off the Cliff; Unwind Has Begun Jan 31, 2010 01-13-10 Forecast for 2010 from Seeking Alpha Contributor THE COMING MARKET CRASH / CORRECTION 1-28-10 Maierhofer (01-15-10) 11 Clear Signs Economy Sinking Economic Black Hole 1-22-10: 20 Reasons Why The U.S. Economy Is Dying And Is Simply Not Going To Recover Current Economic / Fiscal Charts Trendsresearch.com forecast for 2009 1-7-10 Crash is coming! ‘WORST ECONOMIC COLLAPSE EVER’ Must Read Economic / Financial Data This Depression is just beginning The coming depression… thecomingdepression.net MUST READ: JEREMY GRANTHAM’S QUARTERLY UPDATE 25 January 2010 (850 on the S&P) by TPC The Next Wave of Collapse is Coming Sooner than you think Sliding Back Into the Great Depression ABSOLUTELY, ABSURDLY, RIDICULOUS! SELL / TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME!

National / World

Biocratic Solution to Poverty and Disease? Eradicate the Human Jurriaan Maessen | This is the religion of the scientific dictatorship in a nutshell.

Second Amendment Group Made Terror Threat List in Pennsylvania Kurt Nimmo | Israeli company said violent militias would be at peaceful event held at the Pennsylvania capitol.

Global Tax Scam Shifts From Climate Change To Poverty Paul Joseph Watson | The elite are determined to rob the American people blind while creating a slush fund for world government by any means possible.

Latest Vaccine Propaganda: It Prevents Heart Attacks Kurt Nimmo | Government and Big Pharma are desperate to convince you to take their toxic vaccines.

American People To Congress: Shut Up And Get The Hell Out Of Office Americans are sending a pretty clear message to Congress members who have continually pushed hugely unpopular legislation this election year – shut up and get the hell out of office.

Israeli Company Listed Second Amendment Group As Terror Threat Last week it was reported that Tea Party activists had made the Pennsylvania terror threat list generated by an Israeli company. Now we learn that Second Amendment as well as anti-tax activists were also snooped by the state with the assistance of he Institute of Terrorism Research and Response.

Discover Your Humanity And Live Forever In a deeply considered and impassioned call for the re-energisation of humanity, Alex describes how our species is still only in a pre-embryonic stage, and that our intellect is being shaped and limited by force fed distractions.

Average American Works 231 Days To Support Government With Taxes “The average American worked 231 days just to support government, which consumes 63.41 percent of national income.” Yow! The government consumes two-thirds of income! We’re freaking doomed!

Jimmy Carter Says US More Polarized Than During Civil War “This country has become so polarized that its almost astonishing…. Not only with the red and blue states… President Obama suffers from the most polarized situation in Washington that we have ever seen – even maybe than the time of Abraham Lincoln and the initiation of the war between the states.”

Global Tax Scam Shifts From Climate Change To Poverty As the science behind global warming becomes increasingly discredited and its proponents are exposed as eugenics-obsessed control freaks who care only about destroying freedom, the effort to make Americans pay a global tax has shifted from the justification of climate change to that of poverty.

President Ahmedinejad Threatens U.S. With War ‘Without Boundaries’ Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad warned the Obama administration today that if Iran’s nuclear facilities are attacked, the U.S. will face a war that “would know no boundaries.”

China tells U.S. to keep out of South China Sea dispute China told the United States not to interfere in a regional dispute over claims to the South China Sea, saying it would only complicate the matter. China has been increasingly strident in asserting its territorial claims, especially maritime ones.

Gulf States Order $123 Billion of U.S. Weaponry to Counter Iran, FT Says [ See, say the neocons / military industrial complex, who says that war, rumors of war, and threats of war don’t pay dividends they say … riiiiight! The guns v. butter argument. Sounds like a plan … for continued national bankruptcy and conflagration. Bad economics. ] Arab states around the Persian Gulf have ordered U.S. weapons systems worth a total of $123 billion “to counter Iran’s military power,” the Financial Times reported.

Riot Police On Standby, As Greek Truckers Form Massive Protest Blockade The news out of Greece continues to suggest that every attempt to reform the economy and liberalize key sectors is being met with serious resistance.

Nato helicopter crash kills nine in Afghanistan’s bloodiest year Telegraph | The crash early on Tuesday in Zabul province brought this year’s death toll to at least 529.

Drudgereport: Professorial president assigned 'homework' to advisers...
Critical players in national security team 'doubt strategy in Afghanistan will succeed'...
Axelrod 'complete spin doctor'...
President of Afghanistan suffers from 'manic-depression' … [Wow! No wonder he’s aligned with the u.s. … fits right in, one nutcase to another ] ...
Rahm cheers drone attacks: 'Who did we get today?'...
WOODWARD DOES OBAMA: KISS OR DISS? [ What strategy … toward what end … why, other than the newly cultivated heroin trade, which of course is great for cash money sub-rosa, which is great for the few, and of course, the war’s great for the military complex but bad for the u.s. economy generally (resources literally blown up). Win what? You see; for the defacto bankrupt american nation, this is one of those lose, lose scenarios regardless of so-called outcome. ] WASHINGTON — Some of the critical players in President Obama’s national security team doubt his strategy in Afghanistan will succeed and have spent much of the last 20 months quarreling with one another over policy, personalities and turf, according to a new book. The book, “Obama’s Wars,” by the journalist Bob Woodward, depicts an administration deeply torn over the war in Afghanistan even as the president agreed to triple troop levels there amid suspicion that he was being boxed in by the military. Mr. Obama’s top White House adviser on Afghanistan and his special envoy for the region are described as believing the strategy will not work …’
Mob’s man cuomo undecided on debating … how embarrassing for new york … and their cuomo coma … ask cuomo how many mob prosecutions he’s brought ...
POLL: USA Loses No. 1 to Brazil-China-India Market...
HOUSEHOLD NET WORTH DROPS...

Sen. DeMint champions 'tea party' candidates (Washington Post) Bill Maher digs up O'Donnell 'witchcraft' clip (AP) [ She’s done! There’s no excuse for that! None! ] ‘… "I dabbled into witchcraft. I never joined a coven," she said. " ... I hung around people who were doing these things. I'm not making this stuff up. I know what they told me they do," she said. "... One of my first dates with a witch was on a satanic altar, and I didn't know it. I mean, there's little blood there and stuff like that," she said. "We went to a movie and then had a little midnight picnic on a satanic altar." …’ Occult Obsessed Elite Claim Christine O’Donnell is a Witch Kurt Nimmo | The corporate media, the propaganda organ of the global elite, sets its sites on Delaware’s Christine O’Donnell. … Sorry kurt … there’s no excuse for that … she’s done! An O'Donnell repeat is unlikely (Washington Post) There are at least three reasons to be skeptical of Del. Senate candidate's ability to win. OPINION: O'Donnell's forgivable sin? | Politerati Rough Sketch: 10 reasons O'Donnell may be a witch

Justice: FBI improperly opened probes (Washington Post) [ Well, I just hope they’re as zealous (in probing readily discernible crime) with regard to my RICO matters and the corruption in the (judicial / legal) process since, in the final analysis, it will have been the corruption within that will have brought the nation down irrevocably and totally ] .

September 13, 2010

Steven M. Martinez, Assistant Director In Charge
Federal Bureau of Investigation, USDOJ
11000 Wilshire Blvd., Suite 1700

Los Angeles, CA 90024

Dear Sir:

I enclose herewith 3 copies of the within DVD rom autorun disk (which will open in your computer’s browser) as per your office’s request as made this day (the disk and contents have been scanned by Avast, McAfee, and Norton which I’ve installed on my computer to prevent viral attacks / infection and are without threat). I also include a copy of the DVD as filed with the subject court as referenced therein (which files are also included on the aforesaid 3 disks in a separate folder named ‘112208opocoan’). The (civil) RICO action (as you’re aware, the RICO Act is a criminal statute which provides a civil remedy, including treble damages and attorney fees, as an incentive for private prosecution of said claims probably owing to the fact that the USDOJ seems somewhat overwhelmed and in need of such assistance given the seriousness and prevalence of said violations of law which have a corrupting influence on the process, and which corruption is pervasive). A grievance complaint against Coan was also filed concurrently with the subject action and held in abeyance pending resolution of the action which was illegally dismissed without any supporting law and in contravention of the Order of The Honorable Robert N. Chatigny, Chief Judge, USDC, District Connecticut. The files below the horizontal rule are the referenced documents as filed. (Owing to the damage to the financial interests of both the U.S. and the District of Congresswoman Roybal-Allard, viz., Los Angeles, the Qui Tam provisions of the Federal False Claims Act probably would apply and I would absent resolution seek to refer the within to a firm with expertise in that area of the law with which I am not familiar).

The document in 5 pages under penalty of perjury I was asked to forward to the FBI office in New Haven is probably the best and most concise summary of the case RICO Summary to FBI Under Penalty of Perjury at Their Request (5 pages) [ ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf ].

The correspondence I received from Congresswoman by way of email attachment (apparent but typical problem with my mail) along with my response thereto is included on the 3 disks as fbicorrespondencereyes.htm . With regard to the calls to the FBI’s LA and New Haven, CT offices: There was one call to the LA office and I was referred to the Long Beach, CA office where I personally met with FBI Agent Jeff Hayes to whom I gave probative evidentiary documents of the money laundering which he confirmed as indicative of same (he was transferred from said office within approximately a month of said meeting and his location was not disclosed to me upon inquiry). The matter was assigned to FBI Agent Ron Barndollar and we remained in touch for in excess of a decade until he abruptly retired (our last conversation prior to his retirement related to the case and parenthetically, Rudy Giuliani whose father I stated had been an enforcer for the mob to which he registered disbelief and requested I prove it, which I did – he served 12 years in prison, aggravated assault/manslaughter? – and no, there is no Chinese wall of separation – Andrew Maloney’s the one that prosecuted gotti).

In contradistinction to the statement in said correspondence, there is a plethora of information including evidence supporting the claims set forth in the RICO VERIFIED COMPLAINT (see infra). Such includes and as set forth in the case, inter alia,

1. A judgment had been entered in my favor in the case, United States District Court Case #3:93cv02065(AWT)(USDCJ Alvin Thompson), worth approximately now in excess of $300,000 remains unaccounted for and which could be used for payment to creditors, Los Angeles, etc..
2. Counsel Robert Sullivan on my behalf documented by way of certification upon investigation that Alan Shiff, USBCJ, had falsely stated a dismissal upon which false statement he predicated a retaliatory and spurious contempt proceeding against me causing substantial damage, and for which he sought Judicial Notice of those and related proceedings as did I in some of my filings.
3. The Order of Dismissal With Prejudice by Alan Shiff, USBCJ, owing to Defendant Coan’s failure to file anything whatsoever by the court’s deadline causing creditors and me substantial damages: [ Shiff Order of Dismissal With Prejudice on Coan’s Failure to File Page 1 Page 2 ]
4. Defendant Coan had filed an action against me to prevent me from suing him which necessitated me to fly to Connecticut for a hearing before The Honorable Robert N. Chatigny, Chief Judge, USDC, District of Connecticut, who denied Coan’s requested relief as to Coan but precluded my action against Shiff (although there is no immunity, judicial or otherwise, for criminal acts, ie., fraud connected with a case under Title 11, USC, etc.) . [ transcript in pertinent part - crossexamofcoanbypeia.pdf ]
5. Newly appointed judge, Maryanne Trump Barry, Donald Trump’s sister, was assigned the RICO case despite the conflict of interest in light of hundreds of thousands of dollars of illegal (drug) money being laundered through the Trump casinos by the RICO defendants, and despite my motion to recuse her which motion she heard herself and denied, and U.S. Trustee Hugh Leonard with whom I met personally refused to join or file a separate motion to recuse and not long thereafter left said office for private practice at Cole, Shotz, et als on retainer with the RICO defendants as his primary client.
6. Probative and evidentiary documents, affidavits, exhibits, including those turned over to FBI Agent Jeff Hayes in Long Beach, CA, had been given to Assistant U.S. Attorney Jonathan Lacey with whom I met personally at the U.S. Attorney’s Office in Newark, N.J., at which time Samuel Alito was U.S. Attorney, and went over said documents and their probative value with him. Within approximately a month thereafter upon inquiry I was told that Jonathon Lacey was no longer with the office, that the file/documents could not be located, and that there was no further information available concerning contacting him or his location. I thereupon delivered by hand, copies of said documents to the office of then U.S. Attorney Alito, addressed to him, with assurance they would go directly to him. In addition to being inept [ I looked in on the one mob case he had brought, bungled, lost (accidently on purpose?) since I was suing some mob-connected under RICO and the court (I had known / previously met outside of court the judge Ackerman through a client) was absolute bedlam and a total joke since incompetent corrupt Alito brought in all 20 mob defendants (rather than prosecute one or a few to flip them first) who feigning illness had beds/cots in the courtroom along with their moans during testimony and had the jury in stitches. As much as I hate the mob, it truly was funny, if not so tragic.], Alito is also corrupt (and maybe corrupt because he is inept). After a reasonable (but still rather short) time I called to determine the status and was told that Alito was no longer with the Office of the U.S. Attorney, that he was (appointed) a federal judge, and that neither the documents nor any file or record of same could be located. Alito did parley the same / cover-up into quid pro quo direct lifetime appointment to the Court of Appeals, 3^rd circuit, despite the absence of judicial experience or successful tenure as U.S. Attorney (Maryanne Trump Barry as well). This is the same Sam Alito that now sits on the purported highest court in the land. The real application of the illegal rule ‘don’t ask, don’t tell’.

There is applicable insurance / surety coverage and neither LA, nor creditors, nor I should continue to have been damaged by this brazened corrupt and illegal scenario, which should be resolved in accordance with the meaningful rules of law apposite thereto.

Sincerely,

Albert L. Peia

611 E. 5^th Street, #404

Los Angeles, CA 90013

(213) ******** (cell phone)
(213) 622-3745 (listed land line but there are unresolved problems with the line, computer connection may be the reason but I hesitate to chance greater non-performance / worsening by their ‘fix’ so cell phone best for contact).

The ritual of sound-bite economics (Washington Post) Samuelson | Opinion ‘The right's sweeping indictment of Obama for the sluggish recovery is wildly exaggerated. It is not, however, entirely misplaced … Rhetorical claims grow more partisan and self-serving. We are now deep in this process. President Obama's policies either averted another Great Depression -- or have crippled the recovery.’ [ How ‘bout neither is correct: We’re still in what some have even referred to as ‘hyperinflationary (to come from over-printing of currency) depression; and, incurring insurmountable debt / debt service to give a better feel pre-elections, is a far cry from economic recovery, particularly owing to the irrevocable structural shift that has occurred. ]

That nest egg is feeling fragile (Washington Post) [ Fragile indeed! And, much more fragile than most realize owing to obfuscation, manipulation, and outright fraud in the this continuing year of desperation; politically, economically, financially, and legally. YAHOO [BRIEFING.COM]: ‘The S&P 500 pushed through technical resistance to set a fresh four-month high on Monday. There were no catalysts or headlines to account for the climb. Only a bullish bias among market participants underpinned the move. Stocks made only modest gains in the early going. Most traders took their cues from Europe, where the major bourses staged strong gains as concerns about sovereign debt subsided. Early action was generally consistent with the relatively cautious trade that typically precedes an FOMC announcement, the latest of which will be released tomorrow afternoon. Though no rate actions are expected tomorrow, many will look for changes in the verbiage of the actual the FOMC statement to give clues about where policy might be headed …’ Riiiiight … changes in VERBIAGE … in other words, b*** s*** alone … Come on! … you just can’t make this stuff up … again! (the no-recession fed, then nation-bankrupting spending, then just before election ‘recession over’ … the recession that’s a depression that never ended and there’s desperation in the air … and the the frauds on wall street are taking advantage of the pre-election b*** s***) … the new ‘churn and earn fraud they’ll get their commissions again on the way down’ … THIS IS A GREAT OPPORTUNITY TO SELL / TAKE PROFITS SINCE THERE’S MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME! ]Discouraging returns over the past decade and a sputtering economy that shows few signs of reviving soon are leaving many families confused and frustrated over how to secure their financial future.

Recession ends, anxiety lingers (Washington Post) Come on! This is typical, pre-election, fraudulent wall street, full moon b*** s*** ; you know, like the no recession … just more defacto bankruptcy of the nation to tide / smooth things over! Obama confronts deepening angst from Americans who have little faith that the recovery is for real.

I finally saw ‘Avatar (2009)’ and felt compelled to put this on the ‘record of posts’. A previous post (infra) referenced that well proportioned, comely, oscar-winning giant of a woman, Kathryn Bigelow, who did the timely oscar-winning piece, ‘Hurt Locker’, which from my longstanding opposition to the Iraq, now Afghanistan, etc., illegal debacles further bankrupting this already defacto bankrupt nation, was laudable from my perspective if only to point out and emphasize the insanity of same (much like ie., the masterful works ‘Apocalypse Now’ and ‘Platoon’ vis-à-vis Vietnam, albeit after the fact). I was disappointed to hear James Cameron talk up NASA as if it wasn’t the antithesis of his theme as written in ‘Avatar’ inasmuch as NASA is but a CIA / Military / Industrial complex boondoggle, fraud, and ultimately that militarization of space vehicle/thing for the lunatics at ie., the CIA, NSA, Pentagon, some halls of congress, etc. [http://www.albertpeia.com/UFOetryWeNeverWentToTheMoonPNTV.wmv http://www.albertpeia.com/moonfraud.htm ] . I know he’s intelligent, so one may infer he’s one of those ‘do as I say but not as I do’ types in reverse; or, a hypocrite. I’ve seen so many films that I comfortably say without boast or exaggeration that I’ve probably seen all the films in the history (excepting a very few foreign language films) of film worth seeing and then some, and including those by the greatest directors. I previously wrote on my site, ‘I happen to like and respect film as a rich medium which presents large amounts of audio, visual, and thematic information which can be processed in relatively small amounts of time, etc..’ My hat’s off to Kathryn Bigelow; but that said, I must ask what the ‘Academy’ was thinking, or smoking, in overlooking what I believe to be the greatest film ever made thus far in the history of film. Imaginative like no other before it, visually, audibly, and uniquely spectacular while profound in thematic message, and superbly directed, it is disheartening that one might only explain this misstep by the ‘Academy’ which belittles and questions the Academy’s credibility, very existence and prestige as a reluctance to grant Mr. Cameron a second great cinematic achievement of epic proportion (which of course, in reality, they cannot do). Gasoline prices hit 8-month low (Washington Post) [ Strange days indeed. There was a time not long ago that the same news would engender a ‘glass-half-full’ spin for a fraudulent wall street rallying point. At the same time, higher oil prices one of those reasons for selling into the bubble. Today, higher oil prices day to day provide a ‘glass-half-full’ spin for a fraudulent wall street rallying point that drives the oils (stocks) higher. Yes, that’s how bad the economy really is. (Not a reference to ‘Strange Days’ the interesting film from that impressive oscar-winning giant (amazon) of a woman, Kathryn Bigelow, which sported a cast that included Tom Sizemore which of itself meant strange indeed.) ].

Yes! It is a full moon with predictable lunacy from the lunatic frauds on wall street!

Gerald Celente: US Economy = Depression Famous investor and billionaire George Soros referred to the US economy as “blah,” saying he expects a further slowdown. US President Barack Obama has insisted however that the US economy is heading in the right direction. Gerald Celente, the director of the Trends Research Institute said the economy is not just blah, it’s in a depression. It’s the summer of the greatest recession,” he said.

Too Much Liquidity Creating New Investment Bubbles … Again?

20 Signs That The Economic Collapse Has Already Begun For One Out Of Every Seven Americans The Economic Collapse | This year, millions more Americans will discover that the music has stopped playing and they are left without a seat at the table. ‘ … The following are 20 signs that the economic collapse has already begun for one out of every seven Americans…..

#1 The Census Bureau says that 43.6 million Americans are now living in poverty and according to them that is the highest number of poor Americans in 51 years of record-keeping.

#2 In the year 2000, 11.3 percent of Americans were living in poverty. In 2008, 13.2 percent of Americans were living in poverty. In 2009, 14.3 percent of Americans were living in poverty. Needless to say the trend is moving in the wrong direction.

#3 In 2009 alone, approximately 4 million more Americans joined the ranks of the poor.

#4 According to the Associated Press, experts believe that 2009 saw the largest single year increase in the U.S. poverty rate since the U.S. government began calculating poverty figures back in 1959.

#5 The U.S. poverty rate is now the third worst among the developed nations tracked by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

#6 Today the United States has approximately 4 million fewer wage earners than it did in 2007.

#7 Nearly 10 million Americans now receive unemployment insurance, which is almost four times as many as were receiving it in 2007.

#8 U.S. banks repossessed 25 percent more homes in August 2010 than they did in August 2009.

#9 One out of every seven mortgages in the United States was either delinquent or in foreclosure during the first quarter of 2010.

#10 There are now 50.7 million Americans who do not have health insurance. One trip to the emergency room would be all it would take to bankrupt a significant percentage of them.

#11 More than 50 million Americans are now on Medicaid, the U.S. government health care program designed principally to help the poor.

#12 There are now over 41 million Americans on food stamps.

#13 The number of Americans enrolled in the food stamp program increased a whopping 55 percent from December 2007 to June 2010.

#14 One out of every six Americans is now being served by at least one government anti-poverty program.

#15 California’s poverty rate soared to 15.3 percent in 2009, which was the highest in 11 years.

#16 According to an analysis by Isabel Sawhill and Emily Monea of the Brookings Institution, 10 million more Americans (including 6 million more children) will slip into poverty over the next decade.

#17 According to a recently released Federal Reserve report, Americans experienced a $1.5 trillion loss in combined household net worth in the second quarter of 2010.

#18 Manufacturing employment in the U.S. computer industry is actually lower in 2010 than it was in 1975.

#19 Median U.S. household income is down 5 percent from its peak of more than $52,000 in 1999.

#20 A study recently released by the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College University found that Americans are $6.6 trillion short of what they need for retirement … ‘

Black September Postponed, New Month Yet To Be Determined Shell ‘… US markets have to assimilate notes from the FOMC meeting and various housing reports this week. Today, the National Association of Home Builders Index came in at 13, unchanged from the previous month. With 50 a neutral number, there was no optimism here. Tomorrow US building permits and housing starts will be announced. With US home seizures and bank foreclosures rising to records, and banks offering these home in competition with new homes, new home builders may be relying upon divine intervention to assist with their sales…’

Major Indices Up Against the Wall ‘ … Bad News:

Oil dropped to a two week low on concerns for global growth.

Ireland and Portugal were back in the news with the Irish/German Bund spread reaching record highs along with the cost of insurance on their debt; the story was the same in Portugal and these developments helped to drive the Euro down against the dollar.

Barclays Bank (BCS) issued a memo saying that Ireland may need IMF help, a view that was promptly and vigorously denied by the Irish government, but the markets seemed to rebuff those denials as gold reached a new record high.

On the home front, Fed Ex (FDX) reported seeing slower growth ahead and on Friday we saw our 125th bank failure for the year.

The New York Empire Manufacturing Index posted a huge miss for September, coming in at 4.1, down from a previous 7.1 and consensus estimate of 6.4

Industrial production declined in August to +0.2% from +0.6%.

On Friday, an unexpected drop in the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index to 66.6 for September took that index to its lowest level in more than a year.

Unemployment remains at a quarter century high while in 2009, the U.S. poverty rate was the highest since 1994, with 14% of Americans living below the poverty line.

In the all important real estate market, Realty Trac reported that bank repossessions hit a record high in August and now one out of every 380 homes in America are in some phase of the foreclosure process. There is now a three year supply of distressed homes on the market and this comes against the backdrop of household wealth declining 2.8% in the second quarter and the lowest median household income since 1997.

The lumber industry is an important facet of the U.S. economy and is reflective of the state of the housing industry. This week the Western Wood Products Association reports that 2009 was its worst year on record and that 2010 timber sales and production could be even worse. In 2005, the U.S. had a record 2.1 million housing starts that dropped to 555,000 in 2009, the lowest number of starts since World War II.

All of this would lead to the obvious conclusion that we could expect still lower home prices ahead.

What It All Means

From a technical standpoint, the markets are poised for a significant decline and from a macro standpoint; significant risks are inherent in the slowing economy and problems in Europe heating up yet again. Seasonality also points to increasing danger as September and October tend to be treacherous months for market declines.

Furthermore, mutual fund cash levels are at record lows and this phenomenon was also in play before both the 2000 and 2008 market meltdowns. With not much gas left in the tank and an ominous macro environment, it’s hard to make a bullish case in the weeks ahead.

However there’s always the possibility for upside surprises from resilient earnings reports and ever present, not so invisible hand of government intervention here and abroad.

A sustained breakout higher will likely lead to a significant rally while failure here will likely lead to a significant correction to test recent lows.

The most likely probability is for a move lower and Wall Street Sector Selector remains in the “Red Flag” mode, expecting lower prices ahead.’

How Wall Street Manipulates the News...And Investors Shaefer Wall Street’s business model depends upon two factors:

(1) Keeping you interested enough in the markets to leave your cash with them so they can float it, make a return on it higher than the one they pay you, and use your cash to convince the regulators that they have enough in “assets” to borrow money to expand their own proprietary trading, and...

(2) Keeping you trading. The easiest way for them to do this is to slant the news favorably for a few weeks to a few months, then slant the same or similar news unfavorably for a few weeks to a few months. This way, they get you to buy on their alleged good news, then sell when the news “turns bad” and hopes are dashed. That gives them two commissions instead of one. Done over the course of a year, it gives them dozens rather than one or two.

A recent case in point is the current rally based upon the fact that the ISM Manufacturing index rose from 55.5 to 56.3, an inconsequential amount not much bigger than a rounding error, from July to August of 2010, an inconsequential time frame too short to measure anything meaningful. The following week, the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (“services” rather than manufacturing) fell a rather more consequential 54.3 to 51.5, its lowest reading since January, a rather more consequential time frame. Since Services comprise three-quarters of US economic activity, one might think this would have been cause for concern. But the news was buried on page 16 because Wall Street wants us buying now, not selling. Once they have their shorts in place (today? tomorrow?) so they can profit both from their short positions and from retail investors’ panic selling and the commissions that flow only from activity, you’ll find “the news” has magically turned bad again. Then, after they have your commission dollars and their profits from short-selling, they'll spin the news positively again. It’s a classic example of Lucy van Pelt whisking the football away from Charlie Brown every time he gets th-i-i-s close to actually kicking it through the uprights. But you don’t have to play along! Stand back from the daily barrage of data and “commentary” on the data and you’ll see the entire process more clearly. And if you agree, you might take a look at selling into euphoria and buying into despair, as we try to do. The current outlook is supposedly nothing but lollipops and rainbows, so we are now short via ProShares' inverse ETFs: S&P 500 (SH), Emerging Markets (EUM), and Russell 2000 (RWM). I expect a rally based upon real, versus manufactured, slanted and spun, news, this fall. Throwing out the current crop of ne’er-do-wells in Congress alone should be good for a few hundred points on the Dow. But, personally, I don’t see that rally mounting from 10,600. No, Wall Street needs to terrify the public one more time, so they can cover their short positions and buy cheaply as the public sells. A decline below 10,000, possibly well below 10,000, is in their interest before the next big rally. Do your own due diligence – stand aside and watch the manipulation of the silliest sorts of news like: “Only 450,000 newly-unemployed this month in America! Economists had predicted 460,000!! Buy!!! Buy!!!!” And if you agree, take a look at the above and other inverse ETFs. I imagine they’ll be very good to us over the next few weeks or couple months…

Author's Disclosure: We and those clients for whom it is appropriate own or are purchasing SH, EUM, and RWM.

The Fine Print: As Registered Investment Advisors, we see it as our responsibility to advise the following: we do not know your personal financial situation, so the information contained in this communiqué represents the opinions of the staff of Stanford Wealth Management, and should not be construed as personalized investment advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results, rather an obvious statement but clearly too often unheeded judging by the number of investors who buy the current #1 mutual fund only to watch it plummet next month! We encourage you to do your own research on individual issues we recommend for your analysis to see if they might be of value in your own investing. We take our responsibility to proffer intelligent commentary seriously, but it should not be assumed that investing in any securities we are investing in will always be profitable. We do our best to get it right, and we “eat our own cooking,” but we could be wrong, hence our full disclosure as to whether we own or are buying the investments we write about.’

The Mega-Bear Quartet and L-Shaped 'Recoveries' Doug Short I retired this chart series in early August in deference to my preferred inflation-adjusted series that aligns the S&P 500 2000 high with the Nikkei peak in 1989. Here's an update of the retired series by special request.

This chart series overlays the current S&P 500 with the L-shaped "recoveries" after the Dow Crash of 1929, the Nikkei 225 after Japan's 1989 bubble, and the post Tech Bubble NASDAQ. Click the chart below for a larger version and use the links to see various comparisons. [chart]

I've also included an updated two-decade inflation-adjusted chart, which gives us a fascinating visualization of the impact of inflation on long-term market prices. The higher the rate of inflation during a bear market, the greater the real decline. Compare, for example, the peak of the Dow rally in year seven with the same peak in the two-decade nominal chart. The difference is the result of deflation during the Great Depression.

It's rather stunning to see the real (inflation-adjusted) decline of the Nikkei, two decades years after its crash. The recent lows rival the traumatic Dow bottom in 1932, less than 3 years after its peak.

These charts remind us that bear markets can last a long time. And it's not necessary to go back to the Great Depression for an example.

[See also my preferred version, which puts the start of the current secular bear in 2000 with the popping of the Tech Bubble. In inflation-adjusted terms, the S&P 500 reached its all-time high in March 2000. Although the nominal high in October 2007 was higher, the "real" high was not.]

Note: These charts are not intended as a forecast but rather as a way to study the today's market in relation to historic market cycles.

The Analysts Are Starting to Get Silly Moenning In doing my weekend research, I came across a couple of items that reminded me why I am such a cynic:

First, beware of "Conventional Wisdom": I believe it is safe to say that it is widely accepted that Merger & Acquisition (M&A) activity is generally viewed as a positive. That it reflects a view that "stocks are cheap" and that the act of buying represents a source of demand. While true to some degree, I found the following points from an opposing view to be interesting:

• M&A activity is not a sign that corporate managements are becoming more positive regarding the future. It is, in fact, an indication that those same managements are viewing the growth prospects of their existing markets as diminished if not minimal.
• Many studies have shown that mergers, more often than not, do not work out as expected and do not achieve the results touted by the acquiring managements at the time they are concluded.
• Mergers almost always result in "duplications of effort" and thus lead to layoffs of personnel. More people losing their jobs in the midst of the current recession is certainly not going to be helpful to the economy.

Here are some interesting points; I'm sure you'll agree:

Second, in this week's Barron's I came across the following excerpt from "The Weekly Speculator" (date tagged Sept. 16) in the Market Watch Section. I use this only as an example, and not as a general criticism of this newsletter. The excerpt reads in part as follows:

...but it is our belief that recent months have seen a data cycle play out, rather than a genuine moderation of economic activity. Support for this view has certainly been delivered in recent weeks by a sudden firming of US economic data, which has consistently been above consensus since late August.

Really?

It seems to me that housing sales have collapsed since the the "Home Buyer Credit" ended. Automobile sales cratered after the "Cash for Clunkers" program finished. Inventories are building again, which may very well not be a sign of confidence, but simply overstocking. Consumer credit continues to contract. Consumer sentiment is falling. I could go on.

Certainly there have been some positive reports, mostly it seems relating to layoffs, jobless claims, etc. But in general, I read the data as bottom-bouncing at best, and a re-intensifying contraction as a fair possibility. Examine the below table of recent economic reports which I have compiled. It is by no means complete, but hopefully will give a fair representation of recent economic reports. You be the judge:

Recent Economic Data

Date	Report	Actual	Reuters Estimate	Reuters Actual	Evaluation
9/17	UofM Conf	66.6	70.0	68.9	Worse
9/16	Philly Fed	-0.70	3.8	-7.7	Missed
9/16	Jobless Claims	450K	455K	451K	Better
9/16	Producer Price Index	+0.4%	+0.3%	+0.2%	Worst
9/15	Industrial Production	+0.2%	+0.2%	+1.0%	Worst
9/15	Empire Manuf Survey	4.14	5.00	7.10	Weakening
9/14	Business Inventories	+1.0%	+0.6%	+0.3%	Improving
9/14	Retail Sales	+0.4%	+0.3%	+0.4%	Better?
9/10	Wholesale Inventories	+1.3%	N/A	+0.1%	Improving
9/8	Consumer Credit	-$3.6 billion	-$3.5 billion	-$1.3 billion	Weakening
9/8	Beige Book	Widespread Signs of Deceleration	N/A	N/A	Weakening
9/3	Non-Farm Payroll	-54K	-90K	-131K	Better
9/3	Unemployment Rate	9.6%	9.6%	9.5%	Flat/Worsening
9/2	Factory Orders	+0.1%	+0.3%	-0.6%	Weak
9/1	Domestic Car Sales	8.3M	8.7M	8.9M	Weaker
8/25	New Home Sales	276K	340K	330K	Record Low
8/24	Existing Home Sales	3.83M	4.65M	5.37M	15 year low

Relating to the decline in outstanding consumer credit, I believe that this is part of the consumer getting their house in order. I feel that it will help build a solid foundation from which a secular (long-term) economic advance could begin such as the 50s and 60s and the 80s and 90s.

For the immediate future however, I am of the opinion that declining consumer credit reflects an attitude by the consumer to spend less, and this will be a damper to the economy in the short run.

Inventory build-ups are more of an iffy situation. If the reflect an unintended accumulation of unsold merchandise, then a period of inventory reduction may be forth-coming. It is this inventory reduction that concerns me and would be one more near term negative.

So, what do take away from this? Just because it's written or spoken doesn't make it true, even my statements. Take very little on faith, especially when it is regarding the markets.

"Trust no one" - Walter Donovan to Indiana Jones, Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade

Disclosure: No positions

Ron Paul “This Is Much Bigger Than The Great Depression!” Congressman Ron Paul recently appeared on Fox Business’ The Tom Sullivan Show to discuss the Tea Party, where real change comes from, how he began his study of economics, and where he sees the economy going.

Worst U.S. Recession Since 1930s Ended in June 2009, Group Says Newsmax | The worst U.S. recession since the Great Depression ended in June 2009, the National Bureau of Economic Research said.

US Government ‘hiding true amount of debt’ News.com.au | The actual figure of the US’ national debt is much higher than the official sum of $US13.4 trillion given by the Congressional Budget Office.

U.S. Debt Actually $200 Trillion? News.com.au | The actual figure of the US’ national debt is much higher than the official sum of $US13.4 trillion ($14.3 trillion) given by the Congressional Budget Office.

The Banks Still Win On Friday, Congressman Ron Paul issued the following statement about Obama’s appointment of Elizabeth Warren to head up the creation of the new Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.

UK Proposes All Paychecks Go to the State First The UK’s tax collection agency is putting forth a proposal that all employers send employee paychecks to the government, after which the government would deduct what it deems as the appropriate tax and the pay the employee’s by bank transfer.

Is China Starting To Cave? Yuan Hits New Record Against The Dollar Could China be weakening its stance, a little, regarding the yuan?

Third world America In February, the board of commissioners of Ohio’s Ashtabula County faced a scene familiar to local governments across America: a budget shortfall.

US economy fears as consumer confidence plunges American consumers do not expect to be feeling any more confident in six months’ time, a widely-watched index revealed today, underlining the hurdles facing a recovery in the world’s biggest economy.

Wall Street ‘casino’ spooks small American investors Michael McCaslin is wary of investing his retirement funds in Wall Street. Its volatility and cryptic trading techniques make him feel lost and unsafe, he says.

The Secret List Of 10 States With Soaring Poverty Rates The Government Doesn’t Want You To See This is only half of the story though. Despite all these methodological weaknesses I was curious enough to look for the list of states with the worst and best poverty rates. I skimmed through their 88 page report but I could not find a single table breaking down their flawed results by state. This must be top secret information, I said to myself.

The poor and impoverished turn to the forest RT’s Anastasia Churkina re-visits Tent City – a homeless camp tucked away in the woods of New Jersey, where over 40 people have been forced to live, with nowhere else to go.

Foreclosures and Poverty Across the Country, and DC Yawns Firedoglake | Too bad people in poverty aren’t seen as much of a political constituency.

Global climate change industry is now worth more than $528bn THE global climate change industry is now worth more than $528bn, powered by China’s rise as one of the top nations for climate revenues.

American Businesses and Consumers are NOT Deleveraging … They Are Going On One Last Binge

National / World

Globalists Plan to Dismantle Middle Class With UN Tax Paul Joseph Watson & Alex Jones | Final move for world government and destruction of middle class begins.

Fed Issues More Debt as Gold Rises Bob Chapman | What has happened to America is that the private sector only is allowed to exist to keep banking in business and to supply funds for government, bureaucrats, other criminals and the elitists who actually run your country.

Pennsylvania Homeland Security Targeted Tea Parties Kurt Nimmo | Pennsylvania’s Homeland Security said that two Tea Party rallies against illegal immigration might attract “white nationalists.”

Government Prepares To Seize Paychecks As Statist Cancer Explodes Forget big government – the same elite whose policies caused the financial collapse are now ready to launch the next phase of their fascist takeover of the economy – by forcing businesses to send employee paychecks straight to the government, who would then deduct the “appropriate tax” before the employee receives their wage, as the statist cancer of collectivism grows.

Alex Jones On What We Really Are Alex Jones explains how humanity has become completely disconnected from its primitive survival instinct because of modern consumerist culture, and how this is creating generations of nihilistic, depressed, soulless people who have a death wish and are being brainwashed to hate everything that is good and wholesome.

“Moderate” RINO Colin Powell Calls for Tidal Wave of Illegal Students Kurt Nimmo | Establishment politico admits he has illegal immigrants working on his house.

Most Influential Environmentalists Share Mass-Murder Advocating Green Nazi’s Philosophy Our detailed report today on the now openly active and growing eco-fascism movement, and in particular Finnish “philosopher” Pentti Linkola, exposes a savage and despotic side to the environmental agenda.

Global Warming Alarmist Calls For Eco-Gulags To Re-Educate Climate Deniers A Finnish environmentalist guru has gone further than any other global warming alarmist in openly calling for fascism as a necessary step to save the planet from ecological destruction, demanding that climate change deniers be “re-educated” in eco-gulags and that the vast majority of humans be killed with the rest enslaved and controlled by a green police state, with people forcibly sterilized, cars confiscated and travel restricted to members of the elite.

NY Times edits Tea Party article after White House complains The Bush administration spent years feuding with The New York Times but the Grey Lady hardly ever backed down.

Global ‘internet treaty’ proposed The proposal was presented at the Internet Governance Forum in Lithuania last week, and outlined 12 “principles of internet governance”, including a commitment from countries to sustain the technological foundations that underpin the web’s infrastructure.

British Government to Seize All Paychecks Paul Joseph Watson & Alex Jones | Fresh round of economic fascism is about forcing us to beg big government for handouts in return for our own enslavement.

Shut Up! You’re Disturbing the Elite Keith Johnson | Both the establishment left and right working are in concert to stifle the steadfast American tradition of dissent.

Global Warming Alarmist Calls For Eco-Gulags To Re-Educate Climate Deniers Paul Joseph Watson | “Any dictatorship would be better than modern democracy,” says Finnish philosopher Pentti Linkola.

Obama Administration Financially Supports China’s Population Policies Through UN Population Fund Jurriaan Maessen | Only days after his inauguration, President Barack Obama announced he would resume funding for the UNFPA and its ‘family planning’ activities in China and elsewhere around the globe.

Historian: Mao Greatest Mass Murderer in World History Independent | Mr Dikötter is the only author to have delved into the Chinese archives since they were reopened four years ago.

Globalists Push World Transaction Tax At UN Summit Globalists representing 60 nations will meet at the UN this coming week to push a tax on world financial transactions in the name of solving poverty and climate change, formally launching a massive program to bankrupt the middle class and enrich the coffers of global government.

Pennsylvania Homeland Security Targeted Tea Parties In November, Pennsylvania’s Homeland Security issued a bulletin stating that two Tea Party rallies against illegal immigration might attract “white nationalists.” The report was issued by the Institute of Terrorism Research and Response, an Israeli company.

Members of U.S. platoon in Afghanistan accused of killing civilians for sport The U.S. soldiers hatched a plan as simple as it was savage: to randomly target and kill an Afghan civilian, and to get away with it.

FDA won’t allow food to be labeled free of genetic modification: report That the Food and Drug Administration is opposed to labeling foods that are genetically modified is no surprise anymore, but a report in the Washington Post indicates the FDA won’t even allow food producers to label their foods as being free of genetic modification.

58% Of Americans Want A Third Party Americans’ desires for a third political party are as high as they have been in seven years.

Poll: Vast majority opposes attack on Iran Fewer than one in five Americans would support a US military strike on Iran if the Middle Eastern country continued to pursue its nuclear program in the face of international sanctions, a new poll indicates.

Defaults - Not Frugality - Account for Debt Decline ‘If you think that American consumers have found religion when it comes to debt, you might be surprised by what really is happening. From the WSJ:

First, consider household debt. Over the two years ending June 2010, the total value of home-mortgage debt and consumer credit outstanding has fallen by about $610 billion, to $12.6 trillion, according to theFederal Reserve. That’s an annualized decline of about 2.3%, which is pretty impressive given the fact that such debts grew at an annualized rate in excess of 10% over the previous decade.

There are two ways, though, that the debts can decline: People can pay off existing loans, or they can renege on the loans, forcing the lender to charge them off. As it happens, the latter accounted for almost all the decline. Over the two years ending June 2010, banks and other lenders charged off a total of about $588 billion in mortgage and consumer loans, according to data from the Fed and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.

That means consumers managed to shave off only $22 billion in debt through the kind of belt-tightening we typically envision. In other words, in the absence of defaults, they would have achieved an annualized decline of only 0.08%…’

Drudgereport: GREAT ESCAPE: HOUSE MAY ADJOURN '3 WEEKS EARLY’ [ Two views: 1) Despite the rhetoric, spin, fake data, etc., the country is defacto bankrupt and ashambles 2) At least they won’t be able to do more damage ] '
Prince Charles: 'I happily talk to plants, trees' … yeah, inbreeding eventually takes its toll ...
UK Proposes All Paychecks Go to the State First… Wow! ...

Many businesses facing tax hike are too big to be labeled 'small' (Washington Post) [ I almost hate to have to acknowledge the following as true given the dire fiscal circumstances of this defacto bankrupt nation in light of the profligate war spending and other pork, etc., but as was once said and remains true, ‘you can please all of the people some of the time, and some of the people all of the time, but you can’t please all of the people all of the time’.]

Obama ignores critics, appoints Warren to set up agency (Washington Post) [ There are a lot of reasons to be down on wobama’s failed presidency, viz., contrary to campaign rhetoric the continued wars / war spending, no prosecutions of the the wall street frauds, etc., Warren’s appointment is not one of them, assuming her actions match ofr exceed her words. ] In naming Elizabeth Warren to set up a new consumer protection agency on Friday, he swiftly delighted the liberal base of his party after months of disenchantment.

How a touch of inflation could help economy (Washington Post) [ Wow! Just as I began to think I’ve been too harsh on ‘Mr. wall street-glass-half-full-Irwin’, he jars me from such complacency with the foregoing article. Mind you, such is the balderdash that’s being spun these days since, whether desired or not, hyperinflation is a-comin’ in a very big way and the so-called spin-doctors, economy-destroyers are just posturing for a full-fledged swallowing of such total b*** s*** (the over-printing of the evermore worthless fiat Weimar dollaro currency assures that – I also believe the same has been used to bail out holders of the still extant worthless toxic assets in the multi-trillions and now marked to anything, ie., wall street frauds, insiders, etc.). Some of the astute are saying ‘hyperinflationary depression’. Either way, the outlook’s disasterous. I leave ‘Mr. wall street-glass-half-full-Irwin’ with the following simple to remember axiom to guide his thoughts: ‘inflation bankrupts the lender’ and all that such entails. ]Inflation would make the heavy debt that Americans carry a bit more manageable as wages rise but the amount owed stays the same. And it would create more incentive for businesses to invest their cash rather than sit on it.

WHAT YOU SAID: WHAT YOU SAID (Washington Post) ‘ Ralph Novak Lincoln, Calif. I retired in 1983 after 24 years as an Air Force officer and retired again from DoD as a GS-15 in early 2005 after 20 years of service and moved to Northern California in 2006’. … ‘Yeah, I'm not rich, but my out-of-work neighbors who used to have household incomes of $300K to $500K and house payments of $5K to $8K a month look at me with a lot of envy. I worked hard, saved the TSP max and am thankful that my wife took the long view and pressed me to stay with the federal government. It's hard to see what monetary value there is in spending an entire career as a GS employee when you are working long, stress-filled days and years. But the first thing you should do after retirement is to go to your next high school/college reunion and see how the rest of the world is doing.’ [What a typical pathetic loser this guy is; and typifies that government employee attitude of indispensability when in fact they are not only superfluous and expendable, but actually a substantial drag on the nation but are a positive in one respect … adding to the nations insurmountable debt; ‘long, stress-filled days and years’ … don’t make me laugh! He forgot to say that incompetent (and corrupt, etc.) government types like him, living off the ever expanding bureaucratic t*t (bushes are a great example as well, etc.) have played a huge role in creating the deplorable conditions and debacle the defacto bankrupt nation is now facing. ]

Secretary of stand-up: Corny Washington jokes? Robert Gates has a million of 'em. (Washington Post) [ Could it be that’s because he is a joke. Certainly his prognosticating continues to be … a joke. Aw, well, what the heck, he’s an affable killer from the CIA and he has resuscitated the heroin trade in Afghanistan, along with protracted war, etc., after all … eh … cut him some slack … riiiiight! ]

Economists Herald New Great Depression The world is currently experiencing the modern day equivalent of the Great Depression, according to a prominent economist who has added his voice to scores of others now forecasting ongoing economic doom on a scale not seen since the 1930s.) , and my position, Nobel Prize Winner Krugman’s, and that of demographer Dent … This is a global depression. This is a secular bear market in a global depression. The past up move was a manipulated bull (s***) cycle in a secular bear market. This has been a typically manipulated bubble as has preceded the prior crashes with great regularity that the wall street frauds and insiders commission and sell into. This is a typical wall street churn and earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud as in prior crashes’. This national decline, economic and otherwise, will not end until justice is served and the wall street frauds et als are criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed … Krugman: It's All Downhill From Here Cullen Roche Love him or hate him Paul Krugman has been awfully right with regards to the macro picture in the last few years. He’s one of the rare economists who had the foresight to see the housing bubble and the likelihood of economic downturn that would result from it. Krugman recently caused a stir when he said the US economy was headed for the third depression. He isn’t back down from that outlook:

I’ve had a couple of conversations lately with people who follow politics and public affairs, but aren’t that close to the economic discussion — and I’ve discovered that there are two comforting delusions still out there.

Delusion #1 is that we’re on the road to recovery, just more slowly than we’d like; to be fair, the White House keeps saying this.

But it’s not at all true. GDP is growing below potential; employment, even if you focus just on private employment, is growing more slowly than the working-age population. If you ask how long it will take us to return to, say, 5 percent unemployment on the current track, the answer is forever.

Delusion #2 is the belief that the stimulus may yet do the trick, because there are still substantial funds unspent. I tried to deal with this last year. The level of GDP depends not on total funds spent, but on the rate at which funds are being spent, which has already peaked; GDP growth on the rate of change in the rate at which funds are being spent, which peaked last year. It’s all downhill from here.

If you can ignore the schizophrenic market for just a second it’s hard to reject Krugman’s macro outlook. The private sector has been running on fumes since the debt bubble burst in 2007. The government’s extraordinary actions helped bolster the economy, but merely papered over what was a very weak private sector. As we see the government step aside it’s difficult to imagine that the weakness at the private sector won’t again be exposed for what it really is.
Here Are 13 Signs That We’re Actually In A Depression Right Now Gregory White | David Rosenberg has outlined, in his latest letter, the 13 reasons with this so-called recovery is actually a depression… David Rosenberg has outlined, in his latest letter, the 13 reasons with this so-called recovery is actually a depression.Rosenberg sums it up like this:

This is what a depression is all about — an economy that 33 months after a recession begins, with zero policy rates, a stuffed central bank sheet, and a 10% deficit-to-GDP ratio, is still in need of government help for its sustenance.

Harry Dent, Jr. Economy will be in a Depression by 2011
The worst of this next depression is likely to hit between mid-2010 and mid-2013, especially around early 2011, but if the banking system continues to implode a deep downturn or depression could begin sometime in 2009 instead of 2010.
Dow will Fall to 3,800 – 4,500 by 2012
Nasdaq will Fall Below 1,100, its 2002 low, by late 2010 or mid-2012 at the latest.
Inflation will Increase until mid- 2010 and then turn to Deflation
Interest Rates will Increase
U.S. Dollar will Decline
Housing will Decline by 40 – 60% from Today’s Levels
Greatest Economic and Banking Crisis since the 1930s will Occur Between 2010 and 2012). ]