Business / Economic / Financial
[ This link to a somewhat more cumulative blog posts page will precede current days news since most all topics remain current in terms of impact and longer-term effect and can be searched by topical index term more easily. The same is provided since the blog site http://alpeiablog.blogspot.com has just been censored as to size by google which is typical for google as nsa / cia / gov’t shill as more are becoming aware of. The same is true for microsoft, another co. that’s seen their best days and relies on the government to maintain their monopoly. Up to now the better page http://www.scribd.com/alpeia is provided for ease of formatting and clarity thereby while the Washington Post page is the real deal but without formatting http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/community/mypost/index.html?plckPersonaPage=PersonaComments&plckUserId=alpeia&newspaperUserId=alpeia ]
Sucker's Rally? Reitmeister ‘Why am I trimming profits when the market seems to be rallying?
- Are economic conditions really better than a few weeks ago when we were pressed down on Dow 10,000? No. It's just that it’s not as bad as some double dippers thought and so we rallied higher in the range.
- Why should we go higher right now? Yes, there does seem to be some “technical momentum”… but I am not a technician. I am a fundamental investor. Plain and simple, the fundamentals don’t support us going much higher until there is more proof of economic growth…not just proof of no double dip.
- I am a contrarian by nature as I think most investors will guess wrong given how fear and greed leads to “less than rational” decision making. So I said buy when everyone said to sell. And I was right. Now with many former sellers becoming buyers they are pushing the market above where it should be and thus I say sell. But not an outright sell. Just trim profits and be a bit more defensive until the fundamentals can provide support for a greater advance.
- Bond investors waving a yellow flag: We have a breakdown once again between bond and stock investors. The rates on Treasuries went down yesterday when the stock market raged higher. Why is there more flight to safety into government bonds on a day stocks are at the highest level in months? Probably because stock investors are wrong…’
Market Rallies on 'Recession End': Is This a Joke? Satwaves ‘We learned Monday that the recession that has gripped this country for the last two and a half years actually ended in June of 2009. The markets rallied on the news, yet left a lot of my readers asking what it meant. One of our members whom happens to own over thirty wireless phone stores for example, explained that before the recession, a great month meant 150 to 200 activations per store. A good month resulted in 100 to 150 activations per store, while a not-so-good month came in between 80 to 100 activations per store. Since the recession took hold, this subscriber considers himself lucky to acheive 50 to 65 activations per store, per month. Not wanting to let go of employees with families, this member continues to pay his employees out of his own pocket in the hope that things will get better. Is the recession really over for him? The answer will surprise you. The short answer is yes. Economists define a recession as two quarters of negative GDP growth. In layman's terms, it means only that things stopped getting worse as of June 2009. It does not signify that anything has improved. Think of a receding hairline if you will. Just because it has stopped receding does not mean new hair has grown back. For my friend, and millions of small business owners like him nationwide, things stopped getting worse back in June of 2009. A bottom had been established. Unfortunately, this is where most Americans find themselves living these days. The question going forward is how to fix it. Economists are looking for moderate growth of about 2.6% as we climb out of the recession. Let's apply this factor to the gentleman in the example above. Instead of 50 to 65 activations per month, my friend can look forward to that number increasing to 52 to 67 activations per month over the coming year. This is not something my friend is happy about, and needless to say he gets quite upset when he hears people touting the end of the recession. This will not create jobs. This will not end foreclosures. This will not put an end to the record number of poverty stricken Americans this country now has to contend with. There is a solution however, but unfortunately it would require the politicians on Capital Hill to put aside their differences and actually work for the benefit of the people they represent. It would require a sitting Democratic President to accept an idea from his former Republican rival. Americans want jobs, not unemployment checks and certainly not government programs designed to acclimate people to a life of poverty. The government can and should create those jobs, by building nuclear power plants across the country. Just as job creation in infrastructure lead us out of the great depression, so too can it lead the country now. By now everyone knows about the troubled electrical grid our country faces. Oil and coal generate most of the power we use today. Still, on a hot summer day air conditioning usage results in blackouts in cities and towns across the nation. A new movement is now underway which will test our capacities like never before, in the way of the electric automobile. Where will the power needed come from? I know of one non-public company for instance that has ordered 6000 such cars. Although the idea was first presented by a Republican, a Democrat has the ability to say today that it is a good idea whose time has come. Let both take credit and let America and its people prosper. Nuclear power plants will create jobs in every field from architecture and engineering to food service. It will put to work thousands of carpenters, electricians, plumbers, drywall installers, roofers, landscapers, excavators and the like who will purchase everything from groceries to shoes and yes....even that brand new Droid along with a two year activation. Disclosure: No positions
Investor 'Sugar High' Becomes 'Sugar Crash' Reitmeister … I am highly amused by the different reactions that took place after the FOMC Meeting Announcement. In particular day traders acted like hyperactive children at a birthday party. Instead of screaming for more cake, candy and cola they pounded the table for more stimulus. So when they saw the Fed leaning more in that direction they pushed up the Dow by 100 points in just minutes. Investors came in a bit later to find the traders crashing from the “sugar high”. You could say that the investors were like the parents who needed to clean up after the children’s mess. What investors heard from the announcement was “if the Fed is ready to use more stimulus, then economy must be a LOT worse off than we suspected”. From there the traders rally was deflated and the market ended the day in the red. It will be interesting to see which sentiment prevails going forward …’
The Great Recession is Over. Long Live the Great Deleveraging Marta ‘… The NBER declared that the recession that began in December 2007 ended in June 2009. The 18-month recession represents the longest since the end of WWII. The problem with declaring the recession over is that it suggests an end to the Great Recession. The term Great Recession relies on a misguided concept of the latest period of negative growth as a normal downturn in the business cycle, even if on a global scale. Furthermore, in circumscribing the situation within an 18-month period, the term fails to appreciate the breadth, depth and enormity of the recent - and ongoing - crisis. Think back on the Great Depression. At least that phrase contains the word, “depression,” which carries with it the stigma of a really, really bad, multi-year, economic downturn. However, even that term proves inadequate … What is happening right now, and what has been happening in fits and starts since 2000, is the Great Deleveraging, which in many ways parallels the origins and path of the Great Depression. From 1991 to 2000, just as from 1918 to 1929, the world enjoyed the benefits of The End of History (end of the Cold War), known in the former period as The War to End All Wars. The benefits showed up in the period of “Irrational Exuberance”, known in the earlier period as the “Roaring ‘20’s.” The “Crash of ‘29” was mirrored by implosion of the Internet Bubble in 2000. However, a Depression did not ensue in the ‘00’s because the Fed and the Federal government responded in exactly the opposite way that they did in 1929 and the early-‘30’s. In 2001-2003, the Fed cut interest rates and the Federal government cut taxes. An economic recovery ensued. However, just as growth during the ‘30’s proved ephemeral and sporadic, the recovery of the early- to mid-‘00’s proved unsustainable. In fact, the above-mentioned policies during the early-‘00’s, in concert with other government initiatives like “a home for every American”, increased leverage for large banks, and a failure to regulate hedge funds, actually caused something of another “roaring ‘20’s” that ended in tears in 2007 with the collapse of home lending and then hedge funds. The financial system continued to teeter through 2007, before the start of the Great Recession, and nearly collapsed in 2008. To those who believe that the financial collapse is complete and that the end of the Great Recession marks the end of an economic cycle, if not all our economic woes, you are likely to be surprised when you look back in 10 to 15 years and discover that the term Great Recession spans a much longer period than originally thought; just as the term "Great Depression" has been expanded to an indeterminate end date. There are several reasons that the Great Deleveraging will continue. First, the toxins have not been fully purged from the international banking system, and so financial intermediation will remain significantly impaired. Second, private citizens have yet to fully delever. For example, in the US, many individuals and families are slowly bleeding out financially, trying to offset underemployment in jobs paying considerably less than those lost in the past two years by slowly draining savings to pay for houses that cannot be sold. Third, the governments of several nations, as well as the ECB, the Fed and the IMF, have onboarded or underwritten many of the toxins from the private financial system. These bailouts, combined with the excesses of government forays into excessive social welfare programs, will lead to crises in the future. For example, in the US, government leaders still fail to act on the insolvencies of social security, Medicare and Medicaid. Instead, they outrageously create even more healthcare entitlements and promise that there will be no extra cost. Fourth, some governments, like the U.S. and Japan, have engaged in fruitless Keynesian stimulus projects that have worsened the countries’ fiscal situations without providing the hoped-for growth. In fact, the situation is becoming dire enough that we are beginning to see competitive quantitative easing, which presents Japan with the specter of yet another recession, deflation and a third lost decade. As they try to save their own economy, they will put more pressure on the economies of their trading partners and competitors. At some point, all the balance sheets, those of individuals, banks, governments, central banks and extra-national entities like the IMF, will need to be purged in order to right the global economy. This is the Great Deleveraging, and it’s got years to run before it finally burns out.’
State unemployment: Jobs picture gets worse in 27 states CNNMoney | On a state-by-state basis, the jobs picture continues to look a lot more grim in places like Nevada, Michigan and California.
U.S. household net worth drops Reuters | U.S. household wealth fell by $1.5 trillion in the second quarter.
More Forensic Evidence of Gold & Silver Price Manipulation In this article I have unearthed even more forensic evidence in the form of a correlation between the gold and the silver price which again could not happen by random chance. It is necessarily a result of deliberate market intervention and what’s more it occurs on a continuous basis.
The Dollar Is Just Getting Crushed, And It’s Fallen Through Its August Lows Oof. The dollar is still getting hammered, and it’s not like equities are rallying to make up for it.
Albert Edwards On Terminal Competitive Devaluation, The Nuclear Option, And How The Fed’s Policies May Start An All Out War The recent intervention by the BOJ has quickly become the most contentious decision in global economic circles, with many wondering now that the world economy is off on a course of radical currency devaluation, who will be next, and how far will this game continue?
Gold Hits Another Record as Dollar Tumbles On Fed Announcement It is yet another example of the indispensability of gold as a hedge against the bankster engineered economic implosion.
(9-22-10) Dow 10,739 -22 Nasdaq 2,334 -15 S&P 500 1,134 -5 [CLOSE- OIL $74.94 (-54% for year 2008) (RECORD TRADING HIGH $147.27) GAS $2.74 (reg. gas in LAND OF FRUITS AND NUTS $3.11 REG./ $3.26 MID-GRADE/ $3.35 PREM./ $3.69 DIESEL) / GOLD $1,274 (+24% for year 2009) / SILVER $20.65 (+47% for year 2009) PLATINUM $1,623 (+56% for year 2009) / DOLLAR= .74 EURO, 84 YEN, .63 POUND STERLING, ETC. (How low can you go - LOWER)/ 10 YR NOTE YIELD 2.55% …..… AP Business Highlights ...Yahoo Market Update... T. Rowe Price Weekly Recap – Stocks / Bonds / Currencies - Domestic / International This Is a Secular Bear Market and The End of Buy and Hold … and Hope MARKET MANIPULATION AND HOW THE LATEST BUBBLE-FRAUD PRE-COMING CRASH IS BEING ACCOMPLISHED 3-11-10 6 Theories On Why the Stock Market Has Rallied 3-9-10 [archived website file] Risks Lurk for ETF Investors The bull market that never was/were beyond wall street b.s. when measured in gold Property Values Projected to Fall 12% in 2010 Jan 31, 2010 The Week Ahead: Risk Is Off the Cliff; Unwind Has Begun Jan 31, 2010 01-13-10 Forecast for 2010 from Seeking Alpha Contributor THE COMING MARKET CRASH / CORRECTION 1-28-10 Maierhofer (01-15-10) 11 Clear Signs Economy Sinking Economic Black Hole 1-22-10: 20 Reasons Why The U.S. Economy Is Dying And Is Simply Not Going To Recover Current Economic / Fiscal Charts Trendsresearch.com forecast for 2009 1-7-10 Crash is coming! ‘WORST ECONOMIC COLLAPSE EVER’ Must Read Economic / Financial Data This Depression is just beginning The coming depression… thecomingdepression.net MUST READ: JEREMY GRANTHAM’S QUARTERLY UPDATE 25 January 2010 (850 on the S&P) by TPC The Next Wave of Collapse is Coming Sooner than you think Sliding Back Into the Great Depression ABSOLUTELY, ABSURDLY, RIDICULOUS! SELL / TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME!
National / World
US official confirms CIA has 3,000-man ‘covert army’ in Afghanistan A security professional in Kabul familiar with the operation says the 3,000-strong force was set up in 2002 to capture targets for CIA interrogation and handle / enforce the american initiated resurgent heroin trade. Both sources spoke Wednesday on condition of anonymity to discuss matters of intelligence.
US House puts oceans, coasts under UN: Senate vote will seal the deal “It’s too late; it’ll just have to be stopped in the Senate,” Tom, the young male answering the phone in U.S. Rep. John Boehner’s (R-Ohio)Washington D.C. office, said about HR 3534 (CLEAR Act).
Israel again refuses to join nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty It is against Israel’s interests to join a global anti-nuclear arms treaty and the UN atomic watchdog is overstepping its mandate in demanding it to do so, its nuclear chief said on Tuesday.
“Progressive” Washington Think Tank Censors All Independent 9/11 Research The director of a prominent investigative journalism group has told reporters that the organisation’s work is being censored because it continues to highlight stories surrounding questions over the official explanation of events on the 11th of September 2001.
Orwellian Doublethink: Collapse Is Recovery When the National Bureau of Economic Research announced, after much deliberation apparently, that the economic recession ended in June, 2009, it was as if the news were broadcast from some other planet.
CNN Declares the Constitution Racist In a discussion about Texas governor Rick Perry, CNN’s Rick Sanchez told Wayne Slater of the Dallas Morning News that “people of color” consider the Constitution — in particular the Tenth amendment — racist.
Forget $1,300, Gold Is Heading To $11,000 On Dollar Collapse In light of gold hitting a new all time record high today, Omnis senior managing director James Rickards’ forecast that the precious metal will soar to anything up to $11,00 in the aftermath of a dollar collapse makes the current $1,300 level look tame in comparison.
Google Trends #1 Hot Search ‘Save His Presidency’ Matt Ryan | Today on the Alex Jones Show, Alex asked listeners to Google ‘save his presidency’ in an effort to get the word out about a powerful article by Paul Joseph Watson outlining President Obama’s claim that America can “absorb” a terror attack.
9/11 research to be censored from ‘Project Censored’ Steve Watson | According to its directors, ‘Project Censored’ is facing censorship due to its ongoing commitment to cover 9/11 Truth stories.
Will Obama Force America To “Absorb A Terror Attack” To Save His Presidency? Paul Joseph Watson & Alex Jones | Ominous words suggest desperate administration could turn to false flag in bid to crush resistance against big government.
Alex Jones Talks About Humanity’s Struggle & Future Potential Steve Watson & Alex Jones | Or die before you physically perish.
Economic Collapse Leading to Privatized Police and Corporate Mercenaries Eric Blair | As America continues to implode, it appears that security will go to the highest bidder, leaving average citizens to fend for themselves.
Foreclosure snag could hit other lenders (Washington Post) [ As if banks, etc., didn’t need even more uncertainty. After all, even from the fed’s standpoint the economic outlook is ‘uncertain’; then there’s the even more uncertain that for them is absolutely certain; viz., that those now marked to anything toxic assets / paper / securities are not now and won’t ever be what they’re currently valued at under the new FASB rules that allowed them to inflate there balance sheet positions. ] Some of the nation's largest mortgage companies used a single document processor who said he signed off on foreclosures without having read the paperwork -- an admission that may open the door for homeowners across the country to challenge foreclosure proceedings.
Fed statement sets table for possible action in autumn(Washington Post) [ Sounds like a prescient ‘no-plan’ without the prescience from ‘no-recession-helicopter-ben b.s. bernanke’ who we all know is not prescient. Yeah … ‘open-door policies’ which can kill 3 birds with 1 stone, so to speak; viz., the economy, illegal immigration, and China’s trade dominance in one fell swoop giving new meaning to that historical ‘open door policy’ vis-à-vis China. A soldier of fortune is that man called ben shalom bernanke (he looks a little bit like Paladin / Ricard Boone … maybe not).]Federal Reserve policymakers Tuesday ‘OPENED THE DOOR’ (emphasis/quotes added) to new action to try to boost the economy. They just didn't step on in.
In new aid policy, Obama seeks to boost promising economies (Washington Post) [ Wow! Just make sure defacto bankrupt america’s on the list and at the very top at that, wobama, which means you’ll have to leave out that ‘promising’ part / criteria. Talk about out of touch and disconnected! You can’t make this stuff up! ] President Obama will roll out his long-awaited policy on foreign aid Wednesday, pledging to target U.S. assistance at a select group of countries to help transform them into the next generation of emerging economies, officials said.
Top economic adviser is leaving White House for Harvard (Washington Post) [ Back to the league ivy filled vegetable gardens for you … dear Larry … Riiiiight! … Sounds like a plan … for the other ivy vegetable leagers to step up … and do a soft shoe or two … and back to the fold … as does the nation … fold … I mean, really … when you look at the results of their failed tenures … one has to start wondering about basic, general competence … (evidencing a lack thereof, viz., dumbya bush, ‘no recession helicopter ben b.s. bernanke, wobama the ‘changemeister’(riiiiight!), etc.. ] The departure of Lawrence H. Summers will complete the turnover of three of President Obama's four top economic advisers as the administration struggles with the political fallout of a stubbornly weak economy.
Bob Woodward book details Obama battles with advisers over exit plan for Afghan war (Washington Post) Drudgereport: WOODWARD DOES OBAMA: KISS OR DISS? [ What strategy? … toward what end? … why, other than the newly cultivated heroin trade, which of course is great for cash money sub-rosa, which is great for the few, and of course, the war’s great for the military complex but bad for the u.s. economy generally (resources literally blown up). Win what? You see; for the defacto bankrupt american nation, this is one of those lose, lose scenarios regardless of so-called outcome. Then there the ‘what did wobama expect’ in keeping bush appointees, gates, et als, etc., but there’s no question at this point that wobama’s bought this war and has none to blame but his fool self.] WASHINGTON — Some of the critical players in President Obama’s national security team doubt his strategy in Afghanistan will succeed and have spent much of the last 20 months quarreling with one another over policy, personalities and turf, according to a new book. The book, “Obama’s Wars,” by the journalist Bob Woodward, depicts an administration deeply torn over the war in Afghanistan even as the president agreed to triple troop levels there amid suspicion that he was being boxed in by the military. Mr. Obama’s top White House adviser on Afghanistan and his special envoy for the region are described as believing the strategy will not work …’
Professorial president assigned 'homework' to advisers...
Critical players in national security team 'doubt strategy in Afghanistan will succeed'...
Axelrod 'complete spin doctor'...
President of Afghanistan suffers from 'manic-depression' … [Wow! No wonder he’s aligned with the u.s. … fits right in, one nutcase to another ] ...
Rahm cheers drone attacks: 'Who did we get today?'...
Mob’s man cuomo undecided on debating … how embarrassing for new york … and their cuomo coma … ask cuomo how many mob prosecutions he’s brought ...
Cuomo Caught Lying About Voting For Bloomberg... Developing...
POLL: USA Loses No. 1 to Brazil-China-India Market...
HOUSEHOLD NET WORTH DROPS...
IS THE RECESSION REALLY OVER?, ON TUESDAY SEPTEMBER 21, 2010, 12:29 PM EDT ( link to all charts used in this article )
The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - a panel of economists entrusted with the responsibility to officially declare the beginning and end of recessions - declared the end of this recession. But wait, amidst the sound of popping champagne corks, the snore of complacency and a cheer leading media, you can hear the economy's distress signals.
THE GOOD NEWS
But who likes to hear about gloom and doom. Let's focus on the good news. As per NBER, the longest recession the country has endured since World War II officially ended in June 2009 (see chart below). During this recession, the economy has lost over 7 million jobs while the major market indexes a la Dow Jones (DJI: ^DJI), S&P (SNP: ^GSPC), Nasdaq (Nasdaq: ^IXIC), and Russell 2000 (Chicago Options: ^RUT) lost well over 50% of their value. By declaring that the recession ended 14 months ago, NBER takes advantage of the much-coveted privilege of evaluating the economy in hindsight, as it did in December 2008 when it declared that the recession had started 12 month earlier. (chart)
Investors don't have the luxury of placing trades based on hindsight and need to rely on forward looking data, not the rear view mirror. Based purely on forward looking indicators, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter predicted the biggest counter trend rally since the October all-time highs on March 2, 2009 and recommended buying long and leveraged long ETFs, such as the Financial Select Sector SPDRS (NYSEArca: XLF - News), Technology Select Sector SPDRs (NYSEArca: XLK - News), Ultra S&P ProShares (NYSEArca: SSO - News), Ultra Financial ProShares (NYSEArca: UYG - News) and many others. Are forward looking indicators now in line with NBER?
THE BAD NEWS
What does the NBER base its decisions on? To make its determination, the NBER looks at figures that make up the nation's gross domestic product, incomes, employment, and industrial activity.
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
Obviously, recent downward revisions to the GDP did not prevent NBER from its assessment that the recession had ended. The chart below shows recent revisions to GDP. (chart)
Telling the 15 million unemployed Americans that the recession has ended is like telling a homeless person that real estate prices (NYSEArca: IYR - News) are about to pick up. It's ironic at best and cruel at worst.
UNEMPLOYMENT
The chart below shows the real percentage of unemployed Americans expressed by the U-6 unemployment data, published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. With unemployment near an all-time high, can the recession really be over? (chart)
CONSUMER SENTIMENT
It is said that consumer spending makes up about two thirds to three quarters of the economy. What causes consumer spending? Money flow and confidence in future growth are often the catalysts. Judging by the unemployment numbers, money flow is limited. This no doubt has had an effect on consumer confidence. The chart below shows the Consumer Confidence Index. If the recession is over, why is confidence near an all-time low? (chart)
Friday's release of the University of Michigan's Confidence Index was another blow against the economy. Based on this report, Americans planning to buy a home have fallen to a five-month low. Also, Americans planning to buy a car have dropped to the lowest level since December 2008, and 20% of Americans incomes are at risk of deflating. Not only is the lack of spending power a practical threat to any economy, it is also a statistical threat to future GDP numbers. A piece of statistical news that fits into the picture of falling consumer confidence is that the nation's poverty rate jumped to 14.3%
(datasource: U.S. Census Bureau). Poverty in the U.S. is defined by a family of four living on less than $21,954 a year. Currently, 43.6 million Americans fall into this category. But perhaps this doesn't make a difference, as the government is counting on the faithful flock of economists that don't see their own demise and the few thousand Wall Streeters' that cashed in on multi-billion dollar bonuses to lift the economy.
THE SILVER LINING
Even though the NBER declared this recession over, it doesn't preclude the occurrence of another recession. According to NBER, if the economy starts shrinking again, it could mark the onset of a much feared but unexpected double-dip recession. As the first chart shows, this happened in the early 1980s.
NO DOUBLE DIP
To Wall Street's cheerleaders, the worst-case scenario is that the economy is stuck between a rock and a hard place as illustrated by this Bloomberg headline: 'Escaping double dip still means no relief for jobless.' As for investors, they seem not to care much. Monday saw U.S. stocks (NYSEArca: VTI - News) rally by 1.5%. International stocks (NYSEArca: EFA - News) and emerging markets (NYSEArca: EEM - News) were up 1.5 -1.7%. Even European stocks (NYSEArca: FEZ - News) were up, although the European Central Bank had to intervene to stabilize the Irish bond markets on Friday. In other words, the ECB had to prevent another Greece-style default. In fact, does not the emergence of yet another European country defaulting, remind us of the February - April 2010 rally. This rally occurred on ultra-low volume and against a backdrop of bad news. It then stopped all of a sudden for seemingly no specific reason. On April 16, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter warned: 'the pieces are in place for a major decline. We are simply waiting for the proverbial domino to fall over and set off a chain reaction.' The situation is similar right now. Even though stocks have broken out of the 1,040 - 1,130 trading range, they have done so on low volume and increased investor optimism. Within the past three weeks, the percentage of bullish investors tracked by AAII has soared by 30.15%, to the highest level in over a year. This doesn't mean that stocks can't inch up a bit further, just as they did earlier in April, but a look at all pieces of the puzzle doesn't paint the picture of a new bull market. The October issue of the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter evaluates the bullish and bearish potential of the market with a unique approach, along with corresponding target levels and profit strategies.
Bulls Go to Extremes: Don't Buy the "Breakout", Sell It, Prechter Says Stocks jumped Monday with the Dow rising 1.4% to 10,753 and the S&P gaining 1.5% to 1143, its highest close in four months. The S&P eclipsing 1130 for the first time since late June would seem to confirm the long-awaited technical breakout for the index, and could pull many reluctant investors off the sidelines. "Many automatic buy and sell orders are set around market milestones such as these, and investors watch those levels closely for clues about which way the market may go next," the AP reports. But the wise move now is to sell this recent rally, says Robert Prechter, president of Elliott Wave International. "I think we're getting ready for another leg on the downside," Prechter says, citing evidence of what he says are extreme levels of optimism, including:
- -- The most-recent AAII poll shows bearish sentiment at 24%, less than at the Dow's peak in October 2007.
- Mutual fund cash positions being at record lows, which Prechter says should be taken at "face value" rather than the result of massive redemptions from equity mutual funds.
- The TRIN Index (a breadth indicator) at one of its lowest levels in recent years, indicating extreme buying pressure of stocks at 52-week highs, i.e. investors chasing momentum/performance.
In addition, Prechter notes volume has been punk during the rally in recent weeks a sign, to him, that buyers lack conviction. The veteran market-watcher says the current environment is similar to the 1930-31 period. "The market can make its high while optimism makes a peak despite the fact you're going stair-step lower," he says. "What we had in May with the ‘flash crash' was the first wave down." Prechter predicts these periods of downturns sandwiched around 4-5 months of recovery "where people think we've hit the bottom" is likely to "go one for quite a long time" until a true bottom is reached well below the March 2009 lows, much less today's levels.
Macro Insights From Seth Klarman Seth Klarman, the legendary hedge fund manager at Baupost is increasingly concerned about the macro investing environment. With the retirements of several prominent hedge fund managers in recent months he’s clearly not alone in his thinking. In a recent interview (see here for the entire interview) Klarman provides some excellent macro insights and explains why he is more worried about the world than he has been in his entire career. Klarman echoes comments I have often made here. In effect, the recovery has been almost entirely artificial and will result in unquantifiable future threats. Klarman calls the current market a “Hostess Twinkie”:
A Hostess Twinkie is a confection that has made many childhoods slightly happier, but it is composed of totally artificial ingredients. My context, of about 6–12 months ago, was that virtually everything was being manipulated by the government. Nothing was natural in the markets. Interest rates were held at zero, the government was buying all kinds of securities—notably, mortgage securities—and who knows what else has ended up on the Fed’s balance sheet.
We have had lending programs—Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP), Cash for Clunkers, and even Cash for Caulkers. We just don’t know the full extent to which investors have been manipulated. But certainly, the government wants people to buy equities, to invest so that the market will move higher, creating a wealth effect or at least eliminating the negative wealth effect in order to make people feel better about their situation, to restore a degree of optimism so that the economy might recover.
I am worried to this day about what would happen to the markets, to the economy if, in the midst of all these manipulations, we realized that they are, in fact, a Twinkie. I think the answer is that no one knows, including those in Washington. Will the economy continue to recover and grow at a healthy rate or will we sink into a double-dip recession? As we can all see, the high degree of government involvement continues.
Of course, the USA isn’t the only country kicking the can. Klarman cites the European bailout as another game of government kick the can:
The European bailout is gargantuan. I doubt it will work because it kicks the can further down the road and is yet one more manipulation that encourages people to own securities. It is almost as if our government is in the business of giving people bad advice: “We are going to hold rates at zero. Please buy stocks or junk bonds that will yield [an inadequate] 5 or 6 percent.” In effect, it forces unsophisticated investors to speculate wildly on securities that are too overvalued.
All of this has Klarman more concerned than he has ever been. That’s a mouthful from a legend like Klarman who has seen more than his fair share of cycles:
I am more worried about the world, more broadly, than I have ever been in my career.
Like myself, Klarman believes there are unquantifiable repercussions from the bailouts:
I am also troubled that we didn’t get the value out of this crisis that we should have. The Great Depression led us to a generation—or even two generations—of changed behavior. I grew up hearing about how our grandparents had a “depression mentality.” It’s awful to have a depression, but it’s a great thing to have a depression mentality because it means that we are not speculating, we are not living beyond our means, we don’t quit our job to take a big risk because we know we might not get another job. There is something stable about a country, a society built on those values.
In some sense, from the recent crisis we have developed a “really bad couple of weeks” mentality, and that’s not enough to tide us through, teach us to avoid future bubbles, and ensure a strong recovery.
Klarman isn’t a macro expert (he’s a bottom up investor), but something just doesn’t pass the sniff test with all these bailouts. How can the global economy continually bailout the losers without ever allowing these excesses to truly pass from the system? Klarman says we will eventually reach a tipping point:
A tipping point is invisible, as we just saw in Greece. In most situations, everything appears fine until it’s not fine, until, for example, no one shows up at a Treasury auction. In the meantime, we can be lulled into thinking all is well, that the United States will always be rated triple-A. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner speaks as if—at least in his public statements—he has been lulled into thinking that the United States will always be triple-A. That kind of thinking guarantees that someday the United States will no longer be triple-A. A sovereign deserves to be rated triple-A only if it has valuable assets, a good education system, a great infrastructure, and the rule of law, all of which are called into question by an eroding infrastructure, a government that changes the law or violates it whenever there is a crisis, and a legislature that shows no fiscal responsibility. There is an old saying, “How did you go bankrupt?” And the answer is, “Gradually, and then suddenly.” The impending fiscal crisis in the United States will make its appearance in the same way.
Klarman finds the current environment particularly difficult because many of the hedges that have been working are more speculative in nature. He finds little value in most commodities (with the exception of land) because commodities offer no real cash flow and instead rely almost entirely on some future “greater fool” buying the asset from you. Klarman makes an exception with gold, however:
Gold is unique because it has the age-old aspect of being viewed as a store of value. Nevertheless, it’s still a commodity and has no tangible value, and so I would say that gold is a speculation. But because of my fear about the potential debasing of paper money and about paper money not being a store of value, I want some exposure to gold.
Klarman sees all of this government intervention resulting in higher rates of inflation:
I think the odds are low that such high inflation will happen in the near future, but looking ahead five years, it becomes more likely, although certainly not a 50/50 chance. With a very limited initial outlay, I think a hedge like ours is a reasonable protection.
Ultimately, the downside of the current bailout fever comes in the form of an intangible risk. Capitalism without losers is like Catholocism without hell. Klarman sees no way of avoiding future collapses given that we’ve never actually been forced to learn from our past collapses:
Essentially, the problem is that government intervention interfered with the lessons investors needed to learn. Those who stared into the metaphorical abyss are right back at it, with the possible exception of college endowments, for whom the pain has been long lasting because of their spend rate. Almost everybody else is drinking the Kool Aid again, and it is very troubling. We could have another serious collapse, and people would again not be prepared for it.
Secular Bear Market Myths, Part 2 Claassen In yesterday's Secular Bear Market Myths Part 1 we debunked the myth that a secular bear market requires poor earnings growth. In part two, we illustrate the typical price pattern of a thirteen to sixteen year secular bear market and use that pattern to provide a near term and long term Market Outlook. The market may be nearing a critical juncture. If you want to know what to expect, read on ….
A Secular Pattern
Inflation Adjusted (Real) S&P 500 Index 1953-1991 (chart)
After adjusting for inflation, both the high inflation driven secular bear markets and the deflation driven secular bear markets take on a more similar form. This is especially true when a secular bear market is defined as the period between the peak and trough of the average P/E ratio. Using the numbers on the above chart we see that from the 1966 peak in the P/E ratio [1] (see chart of Shiller’s CAPE in first report) to the 1982 low [4] was sixteen years. Both the nominal and real price peak was in late 1968, thirteen years from the 1982 low. This is indicative of the typical secular bear market; a period of sixteen to thirteen years.
There are seven years between the two peaks [1] and [2] along with two major declines [3]. After the second major decline, there is a relief rally [R], then a multi-month trading range as a period of distribution, followed by a multi-year decline to complete the bear market [4].
S&P Composite 1917-1951 with Present S&P 500 (chart)
We can see a similar pattern of behavior in the deflationary bear market of the 1930’s. Yes, the market overlay in orange is our present S&P 500. We will get to that next.
Like the inflation adjusted 1970’s (and 1900-1921) the major highs and lows follow a pattern. The entire period from 1929 to 1942 encompasses thirteen years. The two major tops [1] and [2] are seven years apart. There are two major declines [3], a relief rally [R] followed by a prolonged sideways period, and finally a decline to complete the bear market [4].
The 2000 - 2016? Bear Market
Overlaid in orange on the above chart is the current S&P 500 with the P/E ratio peak in 2000 lined up with the P/E ratio peak in 1929. Not surprisingly, the peak [2] and troughs [3] all line up within a couple of months of their 1930’s counterparts. It appears the rally from the March ’09 low was the relief rally [R]. If our current S&P 500 follows the same path as these previous bear markets, we should expect a prolonged sideways period and decline to final low of the bear market sometime in-between 2013 and 2016. As illustrated in the historical chart of the S&P Composite, when this secular bear market is complete the trailing Shiller CAPE ratios should be under ten. The higher the earnings from now until that time, the less the market will need to decline to complete this period and move into the next secular bull market. Conversely, the lower the earnings, the more the market averages would need to decline to meet their sub 10 trough in the index P/E ratio.
Inflation Adjusted (Real) S&P 500 1959-1983 with Current Inflation Adjusted S&P 500 (chart)
As nicely as the current bear market has fit within the profile of the past, the chart above and the chart below should serve as signs of caution not to expect too tight a correlation between past markets and the present. The patterns of past market behavior are a good guide; they help us understand the environment we are in and keep our expectations in check. But the turning points that look so perfect on the monthly charts have still been accurate only within a +/- of several months. In hind sight that does not seem like much, in real time two or three months can feel like an eternity.
Also, each secular period is unique, and the market will respond to that uniqueness in a manner different than what our past market roadmaps might lead us to expect. For example, when we line up the current market with the 1966 P/E ratio peak (above), although the major turning points line up, there is a unique rally peak in 1968 (see above chart). That difference can be explained by the difference between inflation and deflation based bear markets. But, for now, the current environment is not completely identical to either the pure inflation or deflation periods.
Obviously, current inflation is not the least bit similar to the 1970’s and despite deflationary pressures; this is not the Great Depression. We do believe that this cycle will have more in common with deflationary cycles than inflation. If we look back again at the P/E chart on (reposted below) we can see that secular bear markets have cycled between a falling interest rate and falling P/E environment, and a rising interest rate falling P/E environment. The current economic background is more similar to the deflationary period. In previous Market Updates we have illustrated how, since 1998, the intermarket correlations have been indicative of a market that fears deflation more than inflation, which fits very well with this cycle.
P/E Ratio (CAPE) for US Equities and Long Term Interest Rates: source RJ Shiller (chart)
NASDAQ Composite Aligned with Nikkei 225 1984-2010 (chart)
Japan is another example of a deflationary bear market. We have shown the above chart before, with the overlay of the NASDAQ Composite matching the year 2000 peak of the NASDAQ and the 1990 (December 1989) peak of the Nikkei 225. The major turning points fit very well with the pattern, but the volatility between the turning points is very different. For example, where our S&P Composite model suggest a modest decline followed by a sideways period (after [R]), the Nikkei 225 collapsed without pause. It is very unlikely that the NASDAQ Composite will decline at same rate with which the Nikkei 225 declined at this stage of their bear market. It is more likely that the sharpness of the Nikkei’s decline from 2000 [R] to 2003 [4] will be a feature unique to their bear market. We should also note that it is apparent from our model that Japan’s bear market should have been complete in 2003 [4]. The Nikkei’s rally from the 2003 low to 2007 high was an astounding 140%! But, the decline that followed, and the current persistent deflation shows they have not yet pulled themselves out of their economic bear market. Is this because of incorrect monetary or fiscal policy decisions? Have we made similar policy mistakes? We don’t know and won’t know until after the fact.
Thus, while we have a good road map to follow, we must still diligently monitor our indicators and market conditions. It is more important to follow what the market is doing, than what it should do relative to any predictive model.
Short Term Outlook
The above pages were originally written in June, 2010. The addendum below is a short term outlook as of September 19, 2010. (chart)
Current Dow Jones Industrial Average Daily with NASDAQ 100 Year 2000 Overlay
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Homebuilder Confidence Remains in the Dump
U.S. household net worth drops Reuters | U.S. household wealth fell by $1.5 trillion in the second quarter.
For the Unemployed Over 50, Fears of Never Working Again New York Times | A growing number of people in their 50s and 60s are starting to worry that they may be discarded from the work force — forever.
Gold Hits Another Record as Dollar Tumbles On Fed Announcement Kurt Nimmo | Another example of the indispensability of gold as a hedge against the bankster engineered economic implosion.
Fed Responds To Allegations Of POMO-based Stock Market Manipulation It is no secret that the Federal Reserve, and its now semi-daily interventions in market liquidity via ever increasing Permanent Open Market Operations (aka POMOs, next on deck – Wednesday and Friday for a total of about $7-8 billion), is rather hell bent on creating the impression that the economy is alive and well.
For Sale: Welcome to United States of Tent Cities As the mortgage crisis cuts deep, real estate firms say over a million Americans may lose their homes to foreclosure this year.
Gold Is Not Going Up: The Dollar Is Collapsing Jim Rickards on CNBC talks about gold, the dollar and their relationship.
America Is Today In Worse Shape Than Japan During Its Lost Decade? BIS – the central banks’ central bank – agrees that Americans are in worse shape than the Japanese.
National / World
Biocratic Solution to Poverty and Disease? Eradicate the Human Jurriaan Maessen | This is the religion of the scientific dictatorship in a nutshell.
Second Amendment Group Made Terror Threat List in Pennsylvania Kurt Nimmo | Israeli company said violent militias would be at peaceful event held at the Pennsylvania capitol.
Global Tax Scam Shifts From Climate Change To Poverty Paul Joseph Watson | The elite are determined to rob the American people blind while creating a slush fund for world government by any means possible.
Latest Vaccine Propaganda: It Prevents Heart Attacks Kurt Nimmo | Government and Big Pharma are desperate to convince you to take their toxic vaccines.
American People To Congress: Shut Up And Get The Hell Out Of Office Americans are sending a pretty clear message to Congress members who have continually pushed hugely unpopular legislation this election year – shut up and get the hell out of office.
Israeli Company Listed Second Amendment Group As Terror Threat Last week it was reported that Tea Party activists had made the Pennsylvania terror threat list generated by an Israeli company. Now we learn that Second Amendment as well as anti-tax activists were also snooped by the state with the assistance of he Institute of Terrorism Research and Response.
Discover Your Humanity And Live Forever In a deeply considered and impassioned call for the re-energisation of humanity, Alex describes how our species is still only in a pre-embryonic stage, and that our intellect is being shaped and limited by force fed distractions.
Average American Works 231 Days To Support Government With Taxes “The average American worked 231 days just to support government, which consumes 63.41 percent of national income.” Yow! The government consumes two-thirds of income! We’re freaking doomed!
Jimmy Carter Says US More Polarized Than During Civil War “This country has become so polarized that its almost astonishing…. Not only with the red and blue states… President Obama suffers from the most polarized situation in Washington that we have ever seen – even maybe than the time of Abraham Lincoln and the initiation of the war between the states.”
Global Tax Scam Shifts From Climate Change To Poverty As the science behind global warming becomes increasingly discredited and its proponents are exposed as eugenics-obsessed control freaks who care only about destroying freedom, the effort to make Americans pay a global tax has shifted from the justification of climate change to that of poverty.
President Ahmedinejad Threatens U.S. With War ‘Without Boundaries’ Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad warned the Obama administration today that if Iran’s nuclear facilities are attacked, the U.S. will face a war that “would know no boundaries.”
China tells U.S. to keep out of South China Sea dispute China told the United States not to interfere in a regional dispute over claims to the South China Sea, saying it would only complicate the matter. China has been increasingly strident in asserting its territorial claims, especially maritime ones.
Gulf States Order $123 Billion of U.S. Weaponry to Counter Iran, FT Says [ See, say the neocons / military industrial complex, who says that war, rumors of war, and threats of war don’t pay dividends they say … riiiiight! The guns v. butter argument. Sounds like a plan … for continued national bankruptcy and conflagration. Bad economics. ] Arab states around the Persian Gulf have ordered U.S. weapons systems worth a total of $123 billion “to counter Iran’s military power,” the Financial Times reported.
Riot Police On Standby, As Greek Truckers Form Massive Protest Blockade The news out of Greece continues to suggest that every attempt to reform the economy and liberalize key sectors is being met with serious resistance.
Nato helicopter crash kills nine in Afghanistan’s bloodiest year Telegraph | The crash early on Tuesday in Zabul province brought this year’s death toll to at least 529.
Sen. DeMint champions 'tea party' candidates (Washington Post) Bill Maher digs up O'Donnell 'witchcraft' clip (AP) [ She’s done! There’s no excuse for that! None! ] ‘… "I dabbled into witchcraft. I never joined a coven," she said. " ... I hung around people who were doing these things. I'm not making this stuff up. I know what they told me they do," she said. "... One of my first dates with a witch was on a satanic altar, and I didn't know it. I mean, there's little blood there and stuff like that," she said. "We went to a movie and then had a little midnight picnic on a satanic altar." …’ Occult Obsessed Elite Claim Christine O’Donnell is a Witch Kurt Nimmo | The corporate media, the propaganda organ of the global elite, sets its sites on Delaware’s Christine O’Donnell. … Sorry kurt … there’s no excuse for that … she’s done! An O'Donnell repeat is unlikely (Washington Post) There are at least three reasons to be skeptical of Del. Senate candidate's ability to win. OPINION: O'Donnell's forgivable sin? | Politerati Rough Sketch: 10 reasons O'Donnell may be a witch
Justice: FBI improperly opened probes (Washington Post) [ Well, I just hope they’re as zealous (in probing readily discernible crime) with regard to my RICO matters and the corruption in the (judicial / legal) process since, in the final analysis, it will have been the corruption within that will have brought the nation down irrevocably and totally ] .
September 13, 2010
Steven M. Martinez, Assistant Director In Charge
Federal Bureau of Investigation, USDOJ
11000 Wilshire Blvd., Suite 1700
Los Angeles, CA 90024
Dear Sir:
I enclose herewith 3 copies of the within DVD rom autorun disk (which will open in your computer’s browser) as per your office’s request as made this day (the disk and contents have been scanned by Avast, McAfee, and Norton which I’ve installed on my computer to prevent viral attacks / infection and are without threat). I also include a copy of the DVD as filed with the subject court as referenced therein (which files are also included on the aforesaid 3 disks in a separate folder named ‘112208opocoan’). The (civil) RICO action (as you’re aware, the RICO Act is a criminal statute which provides a civil remedy, including treble damages and attorney fees, as an incentive for private prosecution of said claims probably owing to the fact that the USDOJ seems somewhat overwhelmed and in need of such assistance given the seriousness and prevalence of said violations of law which have a corrupting influence on the process, and which corruption is pervasive). A grievance complaint against Coan was also filed concurrently with the subject action and held in abeyance pending resolution of the action which was illegally dismissed without any supporting law and in contravention of the Order of The Honorable Robert N. Chatigny, Chief Judge, USDC, District Connecticut. The files below the horizontal rule are the referenced documents as filed. (Owing to the damage to the financial interests of both the U.S. and the District of Congresswoman Roybal-Allard, viz., Los Angeles, the Qui Tam provisions of the Federal False Claims Act probably would apply and I would absent resolution seek to refer the within to a firm with expertise in that area of the law with which I am not familiar).
The document in 5 pages under penalty of perjury I was asked to forward to the FBI office in New Haven is probably the best and most concise summary of the case RICO Summary to FBI Under Penalty of Perjury at Their Request (5 pages) [ ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf ].
The correspondence I received from Congresswoman by way of email attachment (apparent but typical problem with my mail) along with my response thereto is included on the 3 disks as fbicorrespondencereyes.htm . With regard to the calls to the FBI’s LA and New Haven, CT offices: There was one call to the LA office and I was referred to the Long Beach, CA office where I personally met with FBI Agent Jeff Hayes to whom I gave probative evidentiary documents of the money laundering which he confirmed as indicative of same (he was transferred from said office within approximately a month of said meeting and his location was not disclosed to me upon inquiry). The matter was assigned to FBI Agent Ron Barndollar and we remained in touch for in excess of a decade until he abruptly retired (our last conversation prior to his retirement related to the case and parenthetically, Rudy Giuliani whose father I stated had been an enforcer for the mob to which he registered disbelief and requested I prove it, which I did – he served 12 years in prison, aggravated assault/manslaughter? – and no, there is no Chinese wall of separation – Andrew Maloney’s the one that prosecuted gotti).
In contradistinction to the statement in said correspondence, there is a plethora of information including evidence supporting the claims set forth in the RICO VERIFIED COMPLAINT (see infra). Such includes and as set forth in the case, inter alia,
- A judgment had been entered in my favor in the case, United States District Court Case #3:93cv02065(AWT)(USDCJ Alvin Thompson), worth approximately now in excess of $300,000 remains unaccounted for and which could be used for payment to creditors, Los Angeles, etc..
- Counsel Robert Sullivan on my behalf documented by way of certification upon investigation that Alan Shiff, USBCJ, had falsely stated a dismissal upon which false statement he predicated a retaliatory and spurious contempt proceeding against me causing substantial damage, and for which he sought Judicial Notice of those and related proceedings as did I in some of my filings.
- The Order of Dismissal With Prejudice by Alan Shiff, USBCJ, owing to Defendant Coan’s failure to file anything whatsoever by the court’s deadline causing creditors and me substantial damages: [ Shiff Order of Dismissal With Prejudice on Coan’s Failure to File Page 1 Page 2 ]
- Defendant Coan had filed an action against me to prevent me from suing him which necessitated me to fly to Connecticut for a hearing before The Honorable Robert N. Chatigny, Chief Judge, USDC, District of Connecticut, who denied Coan’s requested relief as to Coan but precluded my action against Shiff (although there is no immunity, judicial or otherwise, for criminal acts, ie., fraud connected with a case under Title 11, USC, etc.) . [ transcript in pertinent part - crossexamofcoanbypeia.pdf ]
- Newly appointed judge, Maryanne Trump Barry, Donald Trump’s sister, was assigned the RICO case despite the conflict of interest in light of hundreds of thousands of dollars of illegal (drug) money being laundered through the Trump casinos by the RICO defendants, and despite my motion to recuse her which motion she heard herself and denied, and U.S. Trustee Hugh Leonard with whom I met personally refused to join or file a separate motion to recuse and not long thereafter left said office for private practice at Cole, Shotz, et als on retainer with the RICO defendants as his primary client.
- Probative and evidentiary documents, affidavits, exhibits, including those turned over to FBI Agent Jeff Hayes in Long Beach, CA, had been given to Assistant U.S. Attorney Jonathan Lacey with whom I met personally at the U.S. Attorney’s Office in Newark, N.J., at which time Samuel Alito was U.S. Attorney, and went over said documents and their probative value with him. Within approximately a month thereafter upon inquiry I was told that Jonathon Lacey was no longer with the office, that the file/documents could not be located, and that there was no further information available concerning contacting him or his location. I thereupon delivered by hand, copies of said documents to the office of then U.S. Attorney Alito, addressed to him, with assurance they would go directly to him. In addition to being inept [ I looked in on the one mob case he had brought, bungled, lost (accidently on purpose?) since I was suing some mob-connected under RICO and the court (I had known / previously met outside of court the judge Ackerman through a client) was absolute bedlam and a total joke since incompetent corrupt Alito brought in all 20 mob defendants (rather than prosecute one or a few to flip them first) who feigning illness had beds/cots in the courtroom along with their moans during testimony and had the jury in stitches. As much as I hate the mob, it truly was funny, if not so tragic.], Alito is also corrupt (and maybe corrupt because he is inept). After a reasonable (but still rather short) time I called to determine the status and was told that Alito was no longer with the Office of the U.S. Attorney, that he was (appointed) a federal judge, and that neither the documents nor any file or record of same could be located. Alito did parley the same / cover-up into quid pro quo direct lifetime appointment to the Court of Appeals, 3rd circuit, despite the absence of judicial experience or successful tenure as U.S. Attorney (Maryanne Trump Barry as well). This is the same Sam Alito that now sits on the purported highest court in the land. The real application of the illegal rule ‘don’t ask, don’t tell’.
There is applicable insurance / surety coverage and neither LA, nor creditors, nor I should continue to have been damaged by this brazened corrupt and illegal scenario, which should be resolved in accordance with the meaningful rules of law apposite thereto.
Sincerely,
Albert L. Peia
611 E. 5th Street, #404
Los Angeles, CA 90013
(213) ******** (cell phone)
(213) 622-3745 (listed land line but there are unresolved problems with the line, computer connection may be the reason but I hesitate to chance greater non-performance / worsening by their ‘fix’ so cell phone best for contact).
The ritual of sound-bite economics (Washington Post) The right's sweeping indictment of Obama for the sluggish recovery is wildly exaggerated. It is not, however, entirely misplaced … Rhetorical claims grow more partisan and self-serving. We are now deep in this process. President Obama's policies either averted another Great Depression -- or have crippled the recovery.’ [ How ‘bout neither is correct: We’re still in what some have even referred to as ‘hyperinflationary (to come from over-printing of currency) depression; and, incurring insurmountable debt / debt service to give a better feel pre-elections, is a far cry from economic recovery, particularly owing to the irrevocable structural shift that has occurred. ]
That nest egg is feeling fragile (Washington Post) [ Fragile indeed! And, much more fragile than most realize owing to obfuscation, manipulation, and outright fraud in the this continuing year of desperation; politically, economically, financially, and legally. YAHOO [BRIEFING.COM]: ‘The S&P 500 pushed through technical resistance to set a fresh four-month high on Monday. There were no catalysts or headlines to account for the climb. Only a bullish bias among market participants underpinned the move. Stocks made only modest gains in the early going. Most traders took their cues from Europe, where the major bourses staged strong gains as concerns about sovereign debt subsided. Early action was generally consistent with the relatively cautious trade that typically precedes an FOMC announcement, the latest of which will be released tomorrow afternoon. Though no rate actions are expected tomorrow, many will look for changes in the verbiage of the actual the FOMC statement to give clues about where policy might be headed …’ Riiiiight … changes in VERBIAGE … in other words, b*** s*** alone … Come on! … you just can’t make this stuff up … again! (the no-recession fed, then nation-bankrupting spending, then just before election ‘recession over’ … the recession that’s a depression that never ended and there’s desperation in the air … and the the frauds on wall street are taking advantage of the pre-election b*** s***) … the new ‘churn and earn fraud they’ll get their commissions again on the way down’ … THIS IS A GREAT OPPORTUNITY TO SELL / TAKE PROFITS SINCE THERE’S MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME! ]Discouraging returns over the past decade and a sputtering economy that shows few signs of reviving soon are leaving many families confused and frustrated over how to secure their financial future.
Recession ends, anxiety lingers (Washington Post) Come on! This is typical, pre-election, fraudulent wall street, full moon b*** s*** ; you know, like the no recession … just more defacto bankruptcy of the nation to tide / smooth things over! Obama confronts deepening angst from Americans who have little faith that the recovery is for real.
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