Business / Economic / Financial
[ This link to a somewhat more cumulative blog posts page will precede current days news since most all topics remain current in terms of impact and longer-term effect and can be searched by topical index term more easily. The same is provided since the blog site http://alpeiablog.blogspot.com has just been censored as to size by google which is typical for google as nsa / cia / gov’t shill as more are becoming aware of. The same is true for microsoft, another co. that’s seen their best days and relies on the government to maintain their monopoly. Up to now the better page http://www.scribd.com/alpeia is provided for ease of formatting and clarity thereby while the Washington Post page is the real deal but without formatting http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/community/mypost/index.html?plckPersonaPage=PersonaComments&plckUserId=alpeia&newspaperUserId=alpeia ]
Underestimating the Risks of the Stock Market [ Keep in mind, this is an election year and as good as it gets, as bad as it is beyond the spun / fake market-frothing data ] Babak ‘If you spend enough time trading and studying the markets you realize viscerally that markets tend to fall and fall hard much more than they rise. We got a very good example of this in the 2008 bear market where the S&P 500 index gave back in about 18 months all the gains that had taken it almost 5 years to accumulate (March 2003 to October 2007). The theoretical framework that many people use and that which is still taught in finance classes across the globe continues to assume that returns fall into a normal distribution. While it is useful to know that modern portfolio theory and EMH are flimsy theories with no real world applications, it doesn’t help us to recalibrate our instruments to just how asymmetrical stock returns really are. To get at that answer, the research team at Welton Investments compared the actual distribution of returns from the S&P 500 index over the past 50 years with the expected risk based on a Monte Carlo simulation. The results are shown in the chart below: [ chart Source: Tail Risk ] This study shows that investors continuously and severely underestimated negative returns. In fact, going by rolling quarterly losses of 20% or more, investors experienced 5.3 times more of these “fat tail” events than that accounted for by the expectations based on a normal distribution. That difference is huge! Knowing this historical reality, investors have two choices: either don’t play the game (get out of stocks) or play but have a safety net handy for the inevitable fall …’
Empire State Manufacturing Falls in September
Technical Resistance: Here We Go Again Hui ‘…The odds seem to favor another downleg for a couple of reasons.
First of all, investor sentiment has gotten incredibly bullish in the space of a couple of weeks, which is contrarian bearish.
More important for the intermediate term, the market is facing a number of macro headwinds of economic weakness starting in 4Q. John Hussman noted in his latest weekly comment [emphasis added]: As I've noted frequently in recent commentaries, the typical lag between deterioration in say, the ECRI Weekly Leading Index and the ISM Purchasing Managers Index is about 13 weeks, and sometimes longer. The typical lag with respect to new claims for unemployment is about 23-26 weeks (which puts the likely window of deterioration at about the October - November time frame), and the typical lag with respect to the payroll unemployment report is, not surprisingly, about 4 weeks beyond that.
Uber-bear Albert Edwards put it more bluntly:The current situation reminds me of mid 2007. Investors then were content to stick their heads into very deep sand and ignore the fact that The Great Unwind had clearly begun. But in August and September 2007, even though the wheels were clearly falling off the global economy, the S&P still managed to rally 15%! The recent reaction to data suggests the market is in a similar deluded state of mind. Yet again, equity investors refuse to accept they are now locked in a Vulcan death grip and are about to fall unconscious…’
The Dow Is Overbought on Its Daily Chart
To Dip or Double-Dip? Janjigian There has been a lot of talk lately about whether or not we will have a double-dip recession. I have long been in the camp that says a double-dip is a real possibility. I believe the probability for a second recession is higher now than it was last March. But how does one actually assign a number to this probability? The economists Nouriel Roubini and Martin Feldstein are perhaps the most bearish on the economy. They say the chances of a second recession are about one in three. This means they believe that if the economy were to experience the same exact conditions it is experiencing now hundreds of times, one-third of those times would result in a recession. Another way to look at is that the probability that we will not have a second recession is about 67%. In other words, even the most bearish economists believe there is a much better chance that we will avoid a second recession than there is that we will actually have one … [ Hey, come on! If they only were the most bearish on the economy … Economists Herald New Great Depression The world is currently experiencing the modern day equivalent of the Great Depression, according to a prominent economist who has added his voice to scores of others now forecasting ongoing economic doom on a scale not seen since the 1930s.) , and my position and that of demographer Dent (This is a global depression. This is a secular bear market in a global depression. The past up move was a manipulated bull (s***) cycle in a secular bear market. This has been a typically manipulated bubble as has preceded the prior crashes with great regularity that the wall street frauds and insiders commission and sell into. This is a typical wall street churn and earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud as in prior crashes’. This national decline, economic and otherwise, will not end until justice is served and the wall street frauds et als are criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed. Krugman: It's All Downhill From Here Cullen Roche Love him or hate him Paul Krugman has been awfully right with regards to the macro picture in the last few years. He’s one of the rare economists who had the foresight to see the housing bubble and the likelihood of economic downturn that would result from it. Krugman recently caused a stir when he said the US economy was headed for the third depression. He isn’t back down from that outlook:
I’ve had a couple of conversations lately with people who follow politics and public affairs, but aren’t that close to the economic discussion — and I’ve discovered that there are two comforting delusions still out there.
Delusion #1 is that we’re on the road to recovery, just more slowly than we’d like; to be fair, the White House keeps saying this.
But it’s not at all true. GDP is growing below potential; employment, even if you focus just on private employment, is growing more slowly than the working-age population. If you ask how long it will take us to return to, say, 5 percent unemployment on the current track, the answer is forever.
Delusion #2 is the belief that the stimulus may yet do the trick, because there are still substantial funds unspent. I tried to deal with this last year. The level of GDP depends not on total funds spent, but on the rate at which funds are being spent, which has already peaked; GDP growth on the rate of change in the rate at which funds are being spent, which peaked last year. It’s all downhill from here.
If you can ignore the schizophrenic market for just a second it’s hard to reject Krugman’s macro outlook. The private sector has been running on fumes since the debt bubble burst in 2007. The government’s extraordinary actions helped bolster the economy, but merely papered over what was a very weak private sector. As we see the government step aside it’s difficult to imagine that the weakness at the private sector won’t again be exposed for what it really is.
Here Are 13 Signs That We’re Actually In A Depression Right Now Gregory White | David Rosenberg has outlined, in his latest letter, the 13 reasons with this so-called recovery is actually a depression… David Rosenberg has outlined, in his latest letter, the 13 reasons with this so-called recovery is actually a depression.Rosenberg sums it up like this:
This is what a depression is all about — an economy that 33 months after a recession begins, with zero policy rates, a stuffed central bank sheet, and a 10% deficit-to-GDP ratio, is still in need of government help for its sustenance.
Harry Dent, Jr. Economy will be in a Depression by 2011
The worst of this next depression is likely to hit between mid-2010 and mid-2013, especially around early 2011, but if the banking system continues to implode a deep downturn or depression could begin sometime in 2009 instead of 2010.
Dow will Fall to 3,800 – 4,500 by 2012
Nasdaq will Fall Below 1,100, its 2002 low, by late 2010 or mid-2012 at the latest.
Inflation will Increase until mid- 2010 and then turn to Deflation
Interest Rates will Increase
U.S. Dollar will Decline
Housing will Decline by 40 – 60% from Today’s Levels
Greatest Economic and Banking Crisis since the 1930s will Occur Between 2010 and 2012). ]
Industrial output growth slows (Reuters) WASHINGTON (Reuters) – ‘U.S. industrial output slowed last month and a regional measure of factory activity touched a 14-month low in September, pointing to a cooling in manufacturing as the boost from an inventory build-up fades. The reports on Wednesday were consistent with other data suggesting the U.S. economy is stuck in a soft spot, but they also showed the manufacturing sector continued to expand and offered nothing to suggest a new recession was brewing. "We have a sharp slowdown, but that doesn't look like it's going to develop into an outright collapse," said Paul Ashworth, senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics in Toronto. Industrial production rose 0.2 percent in August, Federal Reserve data showed, matching economists' forecasts for a sharp slowdown from July when unusually strong auto manufacturing lifted output. July's gain was revised down to 0.6 percent from 1 percent …’
Yen hits 15-year high vs dollar Reuters | The dollar hit a 15-year low against the yen on Tuesday, testing Japanese authorities’ resolve to stem the yen’s climb after Prime Minister Naoto Kan won a party leadership vote.
Six in 10 Canadians live pay to pay Globe and Mail | Fifty-nine per cent of Canadian workers say they would be in financial trouble if their paycheque was delayed by just a week.
IMF fears ‘social explosion’ from world jobs crisis Telegraph | America and Europe face the worst jobs crisis since the 1930s and risk “an explosion of social unrest” unless they tread carefully, the International Monetary Fund has warned.
Shocking CNBC Headline: “Home Price Double Dip Begins” Diana Olick, by far the best reporter at CNBC, and not merely an anchored regurgitator of propaganda bullet points, let one slip today, by posting an article on CNBC titled: “Home Price Double Dip Begins”.
Are poll workers being used to inflate jobs totals? Workers at polling places for today’s primary and November’s general election are being required to file tax withholding forms for the first time ever in a move that could be aimed at inflating the nation’s employment numbers.
Currency Intervention, Bitches After a six year wait, the BoJ has finally had enough of the Federal Reserve’s endless manipulation and has itself intervened in the currency market.
Where Are The Jobs? Most Americans don’t really care about the economic minutiae that many of us who study the U.S. economy love to pour over.
‘US – Israel’s partner in crime, not a referee’ Israeli and Palestinian leaders are holding a new round of direct talks.
Defacto bankrupt american politics are getting downright nasty. Ask nancy pelosi, ‘the wicked witch of the west’ http://albertpeia.com/nancypelosiwickedwitchofthewest.flv .
Justice Breyer Suggests “Globalization” Trumps First Amendment Supreme Court Associate Justice Stephen Breyer was indecisive when answering a question about whether or not Pastor Terry Jones’ proposed Koran burning was protected by free speech, suggesting that “globalization” now trumps the First Amendment in the eyes of lawmakers.
Let’s Raise Taxes, Greenspan Tells CFR “I am in favor for the first time in my memory [What memory? Incompetent greenspun is senile! ] of raising taxes,” Greenspan told an audience at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York.
Government Bans Tea Party From Celebrating U.S. Constitution Local government representatives in an Ohio town have taken it upon themselves to prohibit a Tea Party celebration of the US Constitution, prompting a lawsuit over restrictions on First Amendment rights.
Globalist Soros Declares “Gold Is The Ultimate Bubble”… Again Billionaire globalist George Soros wants you to think that investing in Gold is “unsafe” and that the rallies the precious metal has seen in the wake of the economic implosion are abnormal.
Police Continue to Harass Citizens Who Record Them A number of cases show how police continue to misunderstand citizens’ rights to record their behavior, and they’re now neatly compiled into a video from the Cato Institute.
Anti-Establishment Fervor A Hammer Blow To Washington Elite Amidst the defeat two more establishment Republicans by Tea Party candidates last night, a new Rasmussen poll shows that anti-incumbent challenger Sharron Angle is now tied with Democratic Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, and stands a good chance of ousting him in November, which would represent a massive blow to the Washington elite.
Karl Rove: Defender of Forever War and a Devastating National Debt Kurt Nimmo | Rove loathes Christine O’Donnell because she represents political change in Washington — and that must be halted at all cost.
Secretive Executive Order Establishes ‘Big Brother’ Health Bureaucracy Eric Blair | Obama quietly signed an Executive Order that some claim lays the foundation for implementing Codex Alimentarius.
Bill Gates Death Panels Tip of Iceberg Paul Joseph Watson, Kurt Nimmo & Alex Jones | Gates in cahoots with the Rockefellers and the bioethics movement to deny health care to Americans.
Anti-Establishment Fervor A Hammer Blow To Washington Elite Paul Joseph Watson | Waiting for an October surprise: The system is cornered, desperate, and dangerous.
Pennsylvania Homeland Security Puts Anti-tax Protesters On List of Terror Threats Kurt Nimmo | Pennsylvania’s Democrat governor Ed Renell says he is “deeply embarrassed” by the disclosure.
Drudgereport: Doomsday warnings of US apocalypse gain ground...
US poverty on track to post record gain under Obama...
Last minute aid helps city dodge default...
NYC Disaster On Primary Day; Machine Glitches Cause Chaos...
Bloomberg Blasts...
Feds probing...
US troops continue combat missions in Iraq, despite Obama's end-of-war speech...
Poll workers being used to inflate jobs totals?
Retirement on Hold: American Workers $6 Trillion Short...
REPUBLICAN ACCUSES WHITE HOUSE OF 'CLASS WARFARE'...
Paul says GOP shares blame for deficits...
Kerry flip-flops on tax cuts...
Muslims protest Quran-burning plan...
Florida pastor calls it off...
Christians rip pages from Muslim holy book in front of White House...
Man ignites Quran near Ground Zero...
VIDEO...
Mosque opponents, supporters face off in downtown NYC...
OBAMA: 'We are not and never will be at war with Islam'...
'Tea party' favorites score in DE, NY...
Establishment Freaks...
'One nation under revolt'...
Christine Smacks Rove: 'So-Called Political Guru'...
CASH POURS IN FOR O'DONNELL; $500,000 IN ONE DAY...
Upsets...
RESULTS...
WIRE...
IN: RANGEL SURVIVES CHALLENGE...
OUT: DC MAYOR VOTED DOWN IN UPSET...
HANGING: DINGELL WARNS DONORS HE COULD LOSE...
Dems gamble by shifting fire to Boehner...
Bill Clinton: New-look GOP makes Bush look liberal!
POLL: Only 25% of public trusts gov't...
The Crash, Obama and Disappearing Dem Majority...
Jobless strain Social Security's disability program (Washington Post) [ Jobless? Strain? Disability? If only that were the only problem for the debacle that will be called ‘social security’. Indeed, even at full employment, those worthless iou’s will still be worthless as this typical capital hill political math project will eventually, as with ponzi schemes generally, end very badly. ]
More banks missing TARP dividend payments [ Isn’t it true as never before in the short history of defacto bankrupt america, that nothing succeeds in america quite like a lack of success? ] Bank Failure Friday Continues at Seeking Alpha ‘…Bank Failure Friday continues with the total number of failures for 2010 now up to 119 on the way to 150 to 200, as the third quarter total ended September 10th at 33. During “The Great Credit Crunch” the FDIC only closed 25 banks during all of 2008. In 2009 the FDIC picked up the pace with 140 bank failures with a peak of 50 in the third quarter of 2009. So far in 2010 the FDIC closed 41 banks in the first quarter, another 45 in the second quarter, and so far 33 for the third quarter. With 119 bank failures so far in 2010 the total for “The Great Credit Crunch” is up to 284 continuing its path to my predicted 500 to 800 by the end of 2012 into 2013 …]
Pearlstein: A bold new breed of bank regulators (Washington Post) [ Wow! Gee! I had always viewed Mr. Pearlstein as a grounded kind of guy. You know … somewhat realistic … I guess I was wrong ‘cause who’s kidding whom? Criminal prosecutions, jail, fines, and disgorgement are the only way to maximize regulatory effectiveness, presently and prospectively. As of now, it pays for the predisposed frauds to take what currently is miniscule chance of prosecution for what have been and remain huge personal and corporate gains. Handcuffs For Wall Street, Not Happy Talk Zach Carter | The fraud allegations that have emerged over the past year are not restricted to a few bad apples at shady companies — they involve some of the largest players in global finance. Finance groups: Long transition to ease new bank rules (Washington Post) [ Basel’s all the rage … Riiiiight! Bonkers for Basel, the thing in rally vogue this day … but, not Basil as in Basil Rathbone of super sleuth Sherlock Holmes film fame who’d make short shrift of this fraudulent wall street contagion that has swept over Europe in a manner to rightfully earn the moniker ‘eventual black Friday plague’ … and then there’s the ‘higher oil price’ part of the suckers’ rally. We can certainly expect Rosanne Rosanna Danna formerly of SNL fame, as night follows the day, to chime in with a reminder as her mama always used to say, ‘it’s always something’ … but unfortunately, that somethin’ is not reality. YAHOO [BRIEFING.COM]: ‘Broad-based buying on the back of Basel III boosted stocks to their fourth straight gain, or seventh advance in eight sessions. Still, participation remained unimpressive ... ‘ AP Business Highlights ‘… Banks get years to adjust to new global rules BASEL, Switzerland (AP) -- Bankers and analysts said new global rules could mean less money available to lend to businesses and consumers, but praised a decision to leave plenty of time -- until 2019 -- before the financial stability requirements come into full force’ ] The requirements adopted by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision fall short of what's needed to prevent another financial crisis. ]
Asian sites' protection urged to save tigers (Washington Post) [ This is clearly a noble task of the highest order that will effect returns manyfold in the most positive sense for this increasing small and troubled world. ] Just 42 sites across Asia, ranging from temperate forests to tropical grasslands, are key to the survival of one of the world's most iconic, and feared, wild cats - the tiger.
Buried Alive - Prominent Sell Signals , On Tuesday September 14, 2010 'A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.' - Winston Churchill
’Does that mean that an optimist is always right? No. In fact, unfounded optimism is one of the biggest investment traps and most effective bear market tricks. On April 16, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter warned that: 'The message conveyed by the composite bullishness is unmistakably bearish. Most bulls have no clue why they are bullish except for the fact that they feel the need to play the momentum game. Sounds like 2000 and 2007 all over again.' When it comes to investing, emotions tend to get in the way of making money. It takes an opportunistic, yet realistic approach to profit in this market.
Parallels Between 2000, 2007, and Today
From a purely analytical point of view, the April ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter examined the 2000 and 2007 market tops and compared them with the 2010 price action, at a time when optimism was soaring sky-high. The parallels between the 2000, 2007 and forming 2010 tops were striking, that's why the newsletter concluded that: 'A comparison between the 2000 and 2007 double tops to the current constellations shows that the market may roll over at any time.' Similar to the January/April 2000 and July/October 2007 double tops, the April 2010 highs were preceded by a lower January top. But the parallels didn't stop there.
Major Tops Followed by Decoy Rallies
Following the initial 2007 decline, the April, May 2008 rally rekindled new hope and pushed the major indexes a la Dow Jones (DJI: ^DJI), S&P (SNP: ^GSPC), and Nasdaq (Nasdaq: ^IXIC) briefly above their 200-day moving average (MA). Following the initial April 2010 decline, the July/August rally also pushed the S&P briefly above the 200-day MA. Both, in 2008 and 2010, the indexes were rebuffed by the 200-day MA. The failure to stay above the 200-day MA in May 2008 was followed by a 53.75% decline in the S&P 500. Former performance leaders like the Financial Select Sector SPDRs (NYSEArca: XLF - News) and KBW Bank ETF (NYSEArca: KBE - News) tumbled 79%, the Technology Sector SPDRs (NYSEArca: XLK - News) dropped 49%. Even conservative sectors such as utilities (NYSEArca: XLU - News) and healthcare (NYSEArca: XLV - News) dropped another 35 - 45%. Like a free diver who comes up for air, the market tends to rally to keep investors engaged before the next leg down. The chart below - which plots bullish advisor sentiment against the price of the S&P 500 from June 2007 - September 2010, illustrates the market's cruel habit of spreading hope just before the hammer drops. [chart]
It Happened Before
Since we are talking about prior market tops, we can't help but mention the mother of all sucker rallies, which occurred in 1929/1930. Following the initial 1929 meltdown, the 1930 rally recouped 50% of the previously lost points. Ironically, the 1930 rally ended on April 16. The 2010 counter trend rally ran its course on April 26. In addition to a near identical termination date, the two rallies rekindled the same kind of bullish sentiment. Below are a few headlines and statement from April 1930. Keep in mind that the Dow went on to decline more than 80% thereafter. 'For the immediate future, the outlook is bright' - Irving Fisher, Ph. D. in Economics 'I see nothing in the present situation that is either menacing or warrants pessimism.' - Andrew W. Mellon, U. S. Secretary of the Treasury 'The depression is over' - Herbert Hoover, President If you escaped the market in time, you might be able to read the following April 2010 headlines with a fair shot of humor and realize the irony: 'As job worries ease, will anything stop the stock market?' – CNBC 'Dow 11,000 is only the beginning' - Wall Street Journal 'Check the real estate: It is time to delve in' - Wall Street Journal
It Happened Recently
It's easy to dismiss any parallels to the Great Depression simply because it happened 80 years ago. However, an 80% drop is nothing unusual and has been seen recently. The Nasdaq (Nasdaq: QQQQ - News) peaked in 2000 and tumbled 78.4% within less than two years. Much evidence suggests that the Nasdaq's woes are not yet over with more losses and lower lows on the horizon. Oil prices tumbled 77% after topping at $147.3 a barrel in 2008. Both, the Nasdaq and oil prices topped at a time when higher prices were a foregone conclusion. With regards to oil, the expectation for higher fuel prices moved all major car manufacturers to advertise and build low MPG cars. As soon as their commercials hit TVs, radios, and newspapers across the country, oil and fuel prices started to drop like a rock. Some still dismiss those declines as sector bubbles, not broad market declines.
It Happened to an Entire Country
The Nikkei is Japan's version of the S&P 500 and covers hundreds of stocks. In 1989, the Nikkei topped at 38,946. Since then, it has dropped over 80% to below 8,000 (see chart below, published in the April 2010 ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter). [chart] Throughout this 20-year decline, the Nikkei had eleven rallies of 20% or more and four that were 50% or more. In total, the Nikkei rallied well over 250,000 rally points, yet it remains 76% below its 1989 peak. The decline of Japan's stock market (NYSEArca: EWJ - News) and economy happened amidst a global bull market. Imagine what can happen to the U.S. stock market during a global recession spurred by European (NYSEArca: FEZ - News) debt woes and global stock market (NYSEArca: EFA - News) weakness. It's human nature to rationalize and invent reasons why something can't happen. It's the stock market's nature to prove investors wrong. Based on parallels that aren't farfetched by any means, a follow through of the post 2007 U.S. equity meltdown is more than just a possibility.
Fundamentals, Technicals, Valuations, and History in Agreement
Investing is about putting the odds in your favor. There is no such thing as a 100% certain profit opportunity. However, there are high probability profit opportunities where the odds of having a winning trade are high and the potential reward is much higher than the potential risk. Such high probability profit opportunities occur when as many indicators as possible point in the same direction. Right now, there is a near unanimous consent between fundamental and technical indicators, along with valuations and historic patterns. The latest ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter includes a detailed analysis of various market forecasting tools, along with a short, mid, and long-term outlook for the U.S. stock market and a target range for the ultimate market bottom. Even though the economic outlook is dim, realistic investors can feel optimistic about the opportunities in the months and years ahead.
Is the Stock Market Safe? [ This time the consensus is correct, in a ‘fish in a barrel’ kind of way! ]‘In a word, no. That’s the general consensus found in a survey of individual investors done by AP and CNBC this week. As if dealing with two major bear markets since the turn of the century wasn’t enough, all the talk about high frequency trading and the May 6th "Flash Crash" seems to have pushed individual investors over the edge in terms of their comfort level with the stock market. In fact, according to an AP/CNBC poll, 55% of those surveyed believe the stock market is fair only to some investors. The bottom line of this particular survey is that investors are now wary about the idea of using the stock market as a way to invest for retirement. Instead, the survey found that the vast majority of individual investors continue to pump unprecedented amounts of money into what many believe is the most overvalued asset class on the planet – government bonds. One result of the 10-plus year secular bear market in stocks is the gradual erosion of the public’s interest and confidence in stocks as an investment. Of course this HAS happened before. Anyone recall the 1982 cover of Time magazine with the title “The Death of Equities?” Although the cyclical bull market that began in March 2009 remains intact, the public has been pulling money out of the market on a monthly basis. Since January 2008, the Investment Company Institute reports that a total of $244 billion has been withdrawn from US equity funds. Yet at the same time, a total of more than $589 billion has poured into US bond mutual funds, which is an unparalleled amount. It appears that the "Flash Crash" may have been the straw that broke the camel’s back. For example, in the 11 weeks prior to May 6th the public pumped a strong $26.6 billion into equity mutual funds. This is hardly surprising since during that time the market was rising steadily and had gained more than 70% in the past 12 months. However, in the 16 weeks since the "Flash Crash," investors have been running scared. In fact, Investment Company Institute reports that the public has pulled money out of US equity funds each and every week since, with cumulative withdrawals now totaling $55.9 billion. Thus, it would appear that the market’s recent volatility has caused the investing public to lose confidence in the market. The AP/CNBC poll found that 61% of those surveyed felt the volatility has made them less confident about buying and selling stocks. There is also a widespread perception is that the market is rigged or unfair to the little guy. Nearly 90% of the survey respondents whose portfolios are less than $50,000 said the market is unfair to small investors. In addition, the public doesn’t seem to have much faith in the administration to fix the situation in the market. The poll found that just 8% expressed strong confidence in federal regulators while 50% expressed little-to-no confidence in those tasked with overseeing the markets. Does this mean it is time to give up on the stock market as an investment vehicle? We would respond with a resounding “no!” The trick is to understand that the game has changed. After an 18-year bull market, the tide has turned. As such, investors actually have to do something besides putting money into any old mutual fund and closing their eyes. Disclosure: No positions’
Handcuffs For Wall Street, Not Happy Talk Zach Carter | The fraud allegations that have emerged over the past year are not restricted to a few bad apples at shady companies — they involve some of the largest players in global finance.
Hatzius: The Risks Are Still to the Downside
Yen hits 15-year high vs dollar Reuters | The dollar hit a 15-year low against the yen on Tuesday, testing Japanese authorities’ resolve to stem the yen’s climb after Prime Minister Naoto Kan won a party leadership vote.
Six in 10 Canadians live pay to pay Globe and Mail | Fifty-nine per cent of Canadian workers say they would be in financial trouble if their paycheque was delayed by just a week.
IMF fears ‘social explosion’ from world jobs crisis Telegraph | America and Europe face the worst jobs crisis since the 1930s and risk “an explosion of social unrest” unless they tread carefully, the International Monetary Fund has warned.
‘The Great American Stickup’: It Was The Economy, Stupid It is not conspiratorial but rather accurate to suggest that blame can be assigned to those who consciously developed and implemented a policy of radical financial deregulation that led to a global recession.
John Williams Sees The Onset Of Hyperinflation In As Little As 6 To 9 Months As Fed “Tap Dances On A Land Mine” John Williams, arguably one of the best trackers of real, unmanipulated government data via his Shadow Stats blog, has just released a note to clients in which he warns that hyperinflation may hit as soon as 6 to 9 months from today.
Will the Basel III Bank Regulations Change Anything? The much-trumpeted Basel III increase in capital requirements will not be fully phased in until 2019.
Three Powerful Trends Will Push Gold Prices To $1600 UniCredit has upgraded their target price for gold from $1,250 to $1,600 by the end of 2012. The reason for the upgrade is based on three powerful trends: the fear over “money printing” at the Fed (QE), the idea that the Euro sovereign debt crisis represents a condemnation of fiat money and increasing demand for gold from China.
The Real Story Behind Bill Gates And “Death Panels” Bill Gates’ advocacy for “death panels” has caused controversy amongst conservative commentators, but the real outrage behind the story has been completely overlooked – the fact that Gates is a hardcore eugenicist and has called for lowering the global population through vaccines which his foundation funds to the tune of billions.
Asian sites' protection urged to save tigers (Washington Post) [ This is clearly a noble task of the highest order that will effect returns manyfold in the most positive sense for this increasing small and troubled world. ] Just 42 sites across Asia, ranging from temperate forests to tropical grasslands, are key to the survival of one of the world's most iconic, and feared, wild cats - the tiger.
Gates starts to outline cuts to save $100 billion for defense (Washington Post ) [ Oooooh … sounds like a plan! No, not gates’ only slightly less bankrupt nation plan over 5 years which bearly covers the interest on the trillion plus for the wars; but rather, Karzai’s plan for u.s. companies extended to u.s. presence, period! ] Defense Secretary Robert Gates on Tuesday said the Pentagon must get "more bang for its buck and shift its focus to the military's needs for the future." Karzai wants private security firms out of Afghanistan: KARZAI WANTS COMPANIES OUT U.S. calls 4-month deadline 'very challenging' (Washington Post) One too many civilian killed. Maybe they figured out that american non-strategy employing the Hegelian methodology of creating problems that American firms can solve. Doomed to failure, they eventually catch on. The bushes were famed for same but wobama has foolishly been no slouch in this regard.
Ex-CIA Agents Confirm Torture at Polish Black Site Former CIA agents have confirmed rumors that the agency tortured terror suspects at a detention center in Poland. One agent allegedly held a drill to a prisoner’s head while he was naked and hooded.
Blair’s Journey: US medal for ‘war criminal’? Former British Prime Minister Tony Blair will receive a prestigious American medal for human rights work. But in his ten years as premier, Blair went from huge popularity to being called a U.S. poodle. His policies in Iraq and Afghanistan earned him accusations of having blood on his hands. And as Laura Emmett reports, many are outraged at his latest award.
Big Sis To Get Expanded Role In Policing Internet Two cybersecurity bills that would hand President Obama the power to shut down parts of the Internet in the event of a national emergency have now been merged into a single unified piece of legislation that Democrats will try to pass before the end of the year, with the Department of Homeland Security being given a larger role in policing the world wide web.
Peace Activist Cindy Sheehan: “I am A 9/11 Truther” Cindy Sheehan, the anti-war activist who lost her son to the ongoing war in Iraq, delivered an impassioned and emotional speech during which she specifically addressed concerns over the 9/11 attacks and stated that she believes they were orchestrated by elements of the U.S. government for political gain.
Soros Front Group Exploits Teenage Celebrity to Get Out Vote for War Party Soros and crew want to get out the vote at all cost, even if they have to exploit kids.
Gold and Silver Explode as Banksters Abandon Market Manipulation Gold has surged to a new high as the prospect of inflation reared its ugly head in the United Kingdom on bad news from a report indicating a weaker-than-expected eurozone industrial production. Germany and France, despite sovereign debt fears, have been able to manage anemic growth but today’s data signals a slow down.
Allegation: Americans Flooded Out Millions in Pakistan to Protect U.S. Drone Military Base Feryal Ali Gauhar served as a Goodwill Ambassador for the United Nations Population Fund and is the only UN Goodwill Ambassador who quit over the invasion of Iraq.
The Biocratic Utopians Part I: Prussian Grenadiers Jurriaan Maessen | The ambition of the biocrats is to create a “superior” class of men.
Gold and Silver Explode as Banksters Abandon Market Manipulation Kurt Nimmo | Gold traded as high as $1,261.90 on Tuesday.
Big Sis To Get Expanded Role In Policing Internet Paul Joseph Watson | Democrats want “Kill Switch” bill passed this year.
Soros Front Group Exploits Teenage Celebrity to Get Out Vote for War Party Kurt Nimmo | The Twitter crowd needs to know that the health of the state is perpetual war.
Expanding U.S.-Canada Security and Economic Partnership Dana Gabriel | NAFTA partners are pursuing a more bilateral agenda for advancing continental integration.
Cuba to cut 500,000 workers, reform salaries (Washington Post) [ Boy, when Castro said communism wasn’t working for them anymore, he wasn’t kidding! No gloating for defacto bankrupt, pervasively corrupt america which is a far cry from capitalism and but a whisper from collapse itself.]
Banks miss TARP payments (Washington Post) [ Sounds like a plan! … Bank Failure Friday Continues at Seeking Alpha ‘…Bank Failure Friday continues with the total number of failures for 2010 now up to 119 on the way to 150 to 200, as the third quarter total ended September 10th at 33. During “The Great Credit Crunch” the FDIC only closed 25 banks during all of 2008. In 2009 the FDIC picked up the pace with 140 bank failures with a peak of 50 in the third quarter of 2009. So far in 2010 the FDIC closed 41 banks in the first quarter, another 45 in the second quarter, and so far 33 for the third quarter. With 119 bank failures so far in 2010 the total for “The Great Credit Crunch” is up to 284 continuing its path to my predicted 500 to 800 by the end of 2012 into 2013 … (see rest of article infra)]
Economy's fallout (Washington Post) The fallout of a troubled economy [ I’m sorry to say that … you ain’t seen nothing yet … much worse to come! ]From foreclosure to food shortages, the recession set in motion by the financial crisis of 2008 is having a broad and deeply-felt global impact.
Doomsday warnings of US apocalypse gain ground AFP | Economists peddling dire warnings that the world’s number one economy is on the brink of collapse.
A subtler tack to fight Afghan corruption? (Washington Post) [ How about a not so subtler tack to fight corruption starting right here in the u.s. of a. where corruption and crime are pervasive and in fact, at the root of the Afghanistan problems, from american reinvigorated heroin trade to bribery attendant thereto to killing civilians, etc.. Defacto Bankrupt, Meaningfully Lawless, War Criminal Nation america, the leader of nations … in crime:
Though having but 5% of the world’s population, america can boast 76% of the world’s serial killers, followed by Europe with England/UK then Germany leading the way for the eu [excerpt, 6 minute video, Serial Killers: Real Life Hannibal Lechters http://www.albertpeia.com/realifeamericaserialkillers.mpg (as is consistent with crime generally, see infra)]. Defacto bankrupt, fraudulent america also spends more on offensive (defensive a misnomer / propaganda) military spending than all the nations of the world combined, and by a large margin at that. Do you see a pattern emerging here [ I unfortunately only belatedly did, and the feds, fed employees, cia, all 3 branches of the u.s. government, etc., are included in this evolved american trait of inherent criminality in the most nefarious sense ( http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm ) ]:
CRIME STATISTICS > TOTAL CRIMES (MOST RECENT) BY COUNTRY SHOWING LATEST AVAILABLE DATA (america’s No. 1).
| Rank | |||
| # 1 | 11,877,218 |
| |
| # 2 | 6,523,706 |
| |
| # 3 | 6,507,394 |
|
… ]
Doomsday warnings of US apocalypse gain ground AFP | Economists peddling dire warnings that the world’s number one economy is on the brink of collapse.
Handcuffs For Wall Street, Not Happy Talk Zach Carter | The fraud allegations that have emerged over the past year are not restricted to a few bad apples at shady companies — they involve some of the largest players in global finance.
Why New Bank Capital Rules Could Make Things Worse CNBC | Early reports suggest the required levels of capital will be much lower than feared, and the kinds of assets that can be used to meet the requirements more expansive than earlier proposals suggested.
Economic Docs Find Remedy Amid Bubble Rubble Even the most casual observer of the events of the last five years — the housing bubble, the bust and the digging-out process — would be struck by the similarities between the policies that got us into this mess and the prescriptions for getting us out.
World Panel Backs Rules to Avert Banking Crises Top central bankers and bank regulators agreed Sunday on far-reaching new rules for the global banking industry that are designed to avert future financial disasters, but could also dampen bank profits and strain weaker institutions.
Tim Geithner Warns: The US Is At Risk Of A 1930s Repeat If the government become paralyzed — as is arguably the case already, and is clearly a serious risk should the GOP take over — the US risks a 1930s-like scenario. At least according to Tim Geithner.
M2 Surges By $30 Billion In Past Week To Highest Ever, Even As Monetary Base Declines Another week in which the M2 jumped to a fresh all time high, increasing by $30 billion W/W to just under $8.7 trillion.
Bank Failure Friday Continues at Seeking Alpha ‘…Bank Failure Friday continues with the total number of failures for 2010 now up to 119 on the way to 150 to 200, as the third quarter total ended September 10th at 33. During “The Great Credit Crunch” the FDIC only closed 25 banks during all of 2008. In 2009 the FDIC picked up the pace with 140 bank failures with a peak of 50 in the third quarter of 2009. So far in 2010 the FDIC closed 41 banks in the first quarter, another 45 in the second quarter, and so far 33 for the third quarter. With 119 bank failures so far in 2010 the total for “The Great Credit Crunch” is up to 284 continuing its path to my predicted 500 to 800 by the end of 2012 into 2013.
The failed bank was publicly-traded Horizon Bank (HZNB.OB), which had huge overexposures to C&D and CRE loans with risk ratios of 358% and 1769% versus the ignored regulatory guidelines of 100% and 300% of risk-based capital. The commitment pipeline of commercial real estate loans was 99% funded as “extend and pretend” caused this failure. The consolidator bank has been used before by the FDIC; Bank of the Ozarks (OZRK) which has a HOLD rating according to ValuEngine.
Here are some statistics from the FDIC for the Second Quarter 2010: There were 45 bank failures in the second quarter, and we ended the quarter with the number of FDIC-insured financial institutions declining to 7,893, of which 1306 are publicly-traded.
· 1172 of all community banks (14.8%) are overexposed to Construction & Development Loans.
· 1432 or 18.1% are overexposed to Nonfarm / Nonresidential real estate loans.
· 2504 or 31.7% are thus overexposed to Commercial Real Estate loans.
· 1317 or 16.7% have a real estate loan pipeline that’s 100% funded.
· 2622 or 33.2% have a pipeline that’s between 80% and 100% funded.
· 3939 of 49.9% of all banks have a pipeline that’s 80% or more funded. So half the community banks in America remain overleveraged to Commercial Real Estate and the possible losses remain about $1.5 trillion.
Publicly-Traded Banks:
· 293 of the 1306 publicly-traded banks are overexposed to C&D loans
· 394 are overexposed to Nonfarm / Nonresidential real estate loans.
· 687 or 52.6% of the publicly-traded banks are thus overexposed to Commercial Real Estate loans. We publish this list as the ValuEngine List of Problem Banks.
· 234 publicly-traded banks have a real estate loan portfolio that’s 100% funded.
· 463 have a real estate loan portfolio between 80% and 100% funded.
· 697 thus have significant real estate loan pipeline stress.
Problem Banks at the end of the Second Quarter versus the First Quarter:
· Given the waves of bank failures the total assets among the 686 Publicly-Traded Problem Banks declined to $135.9 billion from $164.7 billion in the first quarter. C&D loans declined to $12.7 billion from $16.4 billion with a CRE loan pipeline steady at 78.1% versus 78.0%.
· Assets among the 91 Deadbeat Banks, (those in arrears on making TARP dividend payments), totals $99.9 billion with C&D loans at $10.9 billion and a CRE pipeline of 80.9%.
· Assets among failed publicly-traded banks increased to $122.5 billion from $116.7 billion in the first quarter. C&D loans increased to $22.3 billion from $21.5 billion. The CRE loan pipeline increased a tick to 90.4% from 90.3%.
Assets among banks with a CRE pipeline of 80% or more funded increased to $3.84 trillion including $121.3 billion in C&D loans. The average pipeline for 3939 banks is 92.0%. Among this list are four big banks that will likely see waves of write-offs in upcoming quarters.
· JP Morgan Chase (JPM) with $1.72 trillion in assets has a pipeline of 80%.
· SunTrust Banks (STI) has $160.5 billion in assets with an 83% pipeline.
· BB&T Corp (BBT) has $149.2 billion in assets with an 84% pipeline.
· Fifth Third Bank (FITB) has 100.0 billion in assets with an 84% pipeline.
Disclosure: No positions’
U.S. Trade Deficit Still Growing
Why New Bank Capital Rules Could Make Things Worse CNBC | Early reports suggest the required levels of capital will be much lower than feared, and the kinds of assets that can be used to meet the requirements more expansive than earlier proposals suggested.
Too Big To Fail Global Banks Will Collapse Between Now and First Quarter 2011 Matthias Chang | Quantitative Easing spearheaded by the Chairman of Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke, delayed the inevitable demise of the fiat shadow money banking system slightly over 18 months.
Defacto Bankrupt, Meaningfully Lawless, War Criminal Nation america, the leader of nations … in crime:
Though having but 5% of the world’s population, america can boast 76% of the world’s serial killers, followed by Europe with England/UK then Germany leading the way for the eu [excerpt, 6 minute video, Serial Killers: Real Life Hannibal Lechters http://www.albertpeia.com/realifeamericaserialkillers.mpg (as is consistent with crime generally, see infra)]. Defacto bankrupt, fraudulent america also spends more on offensive (defensive a misnomer / propaganda) military spending than all the nations of the world combined, and by a large margin at that. Do you see a pattern emerging here [ I unfortunately only belatedly did, and the feds, fed employees, cia, all 3 branches of the u.s. government, etc., are included in this evolved american trait of inherent criminality in the most nefarious sense ( http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm ) ]:
CRIME STATISTICS > TOTAL CRIMES (MOST RECENT) BY COUNTRY SHOWING LATEST AVAILABLE DATA (america’s No. 1).
| Rank | |||
| # 1 | 11,877,218 |
| |
| # 2 | 6,523,706 |
| |
| # 3 | 6,507,394 |
| |
| # 4 | 3,771,850 |
| |
| # 5 | 2,952,370 |
| |
| # 6 | 2,853,739 |
| |
| # 7 | 2,683,849 |
| |
| # 8 | 2,516,918 |
| |
| # 9 | 2,231,550 |
| |
| # 10 | 1,764,630 |
| |
| # 11 | 1,543,220 |
| |
| # 12 | 1,516,029 |
| |
| # 13 | 1,422,863 |
| |
| # 14 | 1,404,229 |
| |
| # 15 | 1,340,529 |
| |
| # 16 | 1,234,784 |
| |
| # 17 | 973,548 |
| |
| # 18 | 923,271 |
| |
| # 19 | 593,997 |
| |
| # 20 | 565,108 |
| |
| # 21 | 553,594 |
| |
| # 22 | 552,411 |
| |
| # 23 | 520,194 |
| |
| # 24 | 491,026 |
| |
| # 25 | 427,230 |
| |
| # 26 | 420,782 |
| |
| # 27 | 372,341 |
| |
| # 28 | 351,153 |
| |
| # 29 | 330,071 |
| |
| # 30 | 312,204 |
| |
| # 31 | 307,631 |
| |
| # 32 | 286,482 |
| |
| # 33 | 283,702 |
| |
| # 34 | 236,165 |
| |
| # 35 | 218,360 |
| |
| # 36 | 214,192 |
| |
| # 37 | 167,173 |
| |
| # 38 | Peru: | 161,621 |
|
| # 39 | 148,915 |
| |
| # 40 | 134,010 |
| |
| # 41 | 132,867 |
| |
| # 42 | 130,375 |
| |
| # 43 | 107,373 |
| |
| # 44 | 102,783 |
| |
| # 45 | 101,853 |
| |
| # 46 | 92,646 |
| |
| # 47 | 85,776 |
| |
| # 48 | 84,599 |
| |
| # 49 | 81,697 |
| |
| # 50 | 81,274 |
| |
| # 51 | 80,592 |
| |
| # 52 | 60,242 |
| |
| # 53 | 59,426 |
| |
| # 54 | 57,799 |
| |
| # 55 | 49,329 |
| |
| # 56 | 44,762 |
| |
| # 57 | 40,263 |
| |
| # 58 | 39,188 |
| |
| # 59 | 38,620 |
| |
| # 60 | 36,302 |
| |
| # 61 | 35,943 |
| |
| # 62 | 31,138 |
| |
| # 63 | 26,046 |
| |
| # 64 | 24,066 |
| |
| # 65 | 21,058 |
| |
| # 66 | 19,814 |
| |
| # 67 | 19,350 |
| |
| # 68 | 18,301 |
| |
| # 69 | 17,023 |
| |
| # 70 | 15,520 |
| |
| # 71 | 15,029 |
| |
| # 72 | 13,292 |
| |
| # 73 | 13,023 |
| |
| # 74 | 12,048 |
| |
| # 75 | Oman: | 11,782 |
|
| # 76 | 8,872 |
| |
| # 77 | 7,857 |
| |
| # 78 | 7,026 |
| |
| # 79 | 5,838 |
| |
| # 80 | 5,303 |
| |
| # 81 | 4,297 |
| |
| # 82 | 751 |
| |
|
| Total: | 63,531,202 |
|
|
| Weighted average: | 774,770.8 |
|
DEFINITION: Note: Crime statistics are often better indicators of prevalence of law enforcement and willingness to report crime (I believe, and facts support, crime in america to be substantially under-reported and under-prosecuted owing to pervasive corruption, arbitrary enforcement of the law, etc.) than actual prevalence.
SOURCE: The Eighth United Nations Survey on Crime Trends and the Operations of Criminal Justice Systems (2002) (United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, Centre for International Crime Prevention)
The New Terrorist Threat To America: Drunk British Teenagers Brandishing Insults Steve Watson | College student banned from US for life for name calling email to White House. I’m sure he’s crying both night and day … you know, from prospective loss of that new global roach motel (once you go in, you never come out); viz., the disunited states of america; and wow, talk about thin skin; who can’t think of far worse to call wobama; and then, there’s the real terror threat.
Big Sis Iris Scanners: The Prison Without Bars Paul Joseph Watson | Americans will be forced to prove they are well-behaved serfs to be able to do anything.
Dick Gregory Announces Hunger Strike for 9/11 Truth Dick Gregory | I am announcing today that I will be consuming only liquids beginning Sunday until my eightieth birthday in 2012 and until the real truth of what truly happened on that day emerges and is publicly known.
9/11 – State of Emergency: An Era of Madness and Despair The Excavator | All the freedoms of the American people that are being stripped by the U.S. government under national emergency are rationalized because of the terrorist attacks on September 11.
Doomsday warnings of US apocalypse gain ground Economists peddling dire warnings that the world’s number one economy is on the brink of collapse, amid high rates of unemployment and a spiraling public deficit, are flourishing here.
Greek Default: Why It’s Only A Matter Of Time Is Greek default only a matter of time? According to the Council on Foreign Relations that’s the story the bond market is currently telling us.
Zionists are behind Quran desecration: Iran FM Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki has described the Quran-burning plan as a Zionist-orchestrated scheme.
Google ‘damages users’ brains’ Google damages the brains of its users by offering too much assistance in solving problems, an author has claimed.
Feds Spent $800,000 of Economic Stimulus on African Genital-Washing Program The National Institute of Mental Health (NIMH), a division of the National Institutes of Health (NIH), spent $823,200 of economic stimulus funds in 2009 on a study by a UCLA research team to teach uncircumcised African men how to wash their genitals after having sex.
Ground Zero Mosque Controversy: A CIA Orchestrated Event Kurt Nimmo | The Ground Zero mosque event was designed to reinvigorate the manufactured Global War on Manufactured Terror.
Obama Touts Inefficient Program to Defend Stimulus: $1.4m per Green Job Created Activist Post | Only 390 jobs were created from the $548 million taxpayer investment, or about $1.4 million per job.
British troops in Afghanistan face heroin smuggling probe British military police are investigating claims that the country’s servicemen may have, with the americans, trafficked heroin out of Afghanistan, the Ministry of Defence in London said Sunday.
United States Joint Forces Command Warns that Huge U.S. Debt Will Lead to Military Impotence, Default or Revolution [ Little bit late for that … the warning thing! ] American military and intelligence leaders say that debt is the main national security threat to the U.S.
Korans vandalized in New York, Washington on 9/11 anniversary Two religious leaders at a recently-founded offshoot of the Baptist church burned Korans in a Tennessee back yard on the anniversary of the 9/11 attacks, reports the NBC affiliate in Nashville.
September 11 anniversary marked by noise and recrimination The September 11 anniversary is usually a day of quiet reflection. But this year the furore over plans for a mosque near Ground Zero led to a day of noise and recrimination.
Nine Years After 9/11, Only 1% See Terrorism as Top U.S. Problem Nine years after the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, 1% of Americans mention terrorism as the most important problem facing the country, down from 46% just after the attacks.
Nine years, two wars, hundreds of thousands dead – and nothing learnt Did 9/11 make us all mad? Our memorial to the innocents who died nine years ago has been a holocaust of fire and blood.
When Will the Bad Dream End? Anthony Gregory | It has been nine whole years since 9/11, and it is starting to look like the “post-9/11″ insanity has become a permanent feature of the American landscape.
The Silence of September 11 Infowars.com | Silence has followed ever since the attack and continues until this day, as Peter Dale Scott explains.
Wikileaks to Release Massive Document Collection on Iraq War Ahmad F Al-Shagra | The Iraq War report is larger than the Afghan War documents made available for advance review to The New York Times, The Guardian, and Der Spiegel.
Pastor at centre of Koran-burning controversy flies to New York for September 11th The pastor who planned to burn Korans on today’s ninth anniversary of the September 11th attacks has flown to New York to challenge the controversial proposed Islamic centre close to the Ground Zero site.
Koran-burning pastor ‘has gone mad’ and ‘needs help,’ daughter says The estranged daughter of a Florida pastor who has threatened to burn copies of the Koran believes he has gone mad and needs help, she said in a German media interview conducted on Friday.
DHS: Another Attack Could Be On The Way “We can’t guarantee there won’t be another successful terrorist attack,” Napolitano will tell first responders and emergency workers.
We have failed, admits UN, as fresh wave of Congo rapes emerges The United Nations has been urged to go back to basics in protecting civilians in Eastern Congo after admitting that 500 rapes in the space of a single month amounted to a serious failure in its mission.
9 Years Later, Nearly 900 9/11 Responders Have Died, Survivors Fight for Compensation The victims of 9/11 are being remembered in many places around the world, Russia among them. Dozens have come to lay flowers at the US Embassy in the Russian capital.
“We’re dead men walking”: The toxic legacy of 9/11 More than 10,000 Ground Zero workers – known as “first responders” – are suffering from serious and even fatal illnesses after inhaling the toxic dust cloud caused by the crumbling towers.
Firefighter battles cancer he got from 9/11 toxins Nine years after the attacks of 9/11, many heroes from that day are still fighting for their lives. One of them is a firefighter, who is struggling to stay alive for his family.
Compensation for 9/11 First Responders to Be Revisited in Congress With the nine-year commemoration of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center approaching on Saturday, thousands of victims, many of whom risked their lives to save others, are speaking out and saying that the government has abandoned them in their time of need.
9/11 responders demand justice Last month RT filmed this emotional footage of 9/11 first responders pouring their hearts out at a speech just blocks away from where the twin towers fell. The rally was in response to Congress defeating a federal bill that would have provided billions of dollars in health care for those sickened by toxins released by the collapse of the World Trade Center towers Sept. 11, 2001.
America’s Torture Doctrine John Galt | We idolize torturers in our favorite TV programs, and are happy to see our enemies (real and imagined) vicariously taken apart in order to protect our beacon of freedom.
The Anniversary of 9/11 Washington’s Blog | If even the 9/11 Commissioners don’t buy the official story, why do you?
Drudgereport: Doomsday warnings of US apocalypse gain ground...
US poverty on track to post record gain under Obama...
Last minute aid helps city dodge default...
REPUBLICAN ACCUSES WHITE HOUSE OF 'CLASS WARFARE'...
Paul says GOP shares blame for deficits...
Kerry flip-flops on tax cuts...
Muslims protest Quran-burning plan...
Florida pastor calls it off...
Christians rip pages from Muslim holy book in front of White House...
Man ignites Quran near Ground Zero...
VIDEO...
Mosque opponents, supporters face off in downtown NYC...
OBAMA: 'We are not and never will be at war with Islam'...
When Will the Bad Dream End? Anthony Gregory | It has been nine whole years since 9/11, and it is starting to look like the “post-9/11″ insanity has become a permanent feature of the American landscape.
Nine years, two wars, hundreds of thousands dead – and nothing learnt Did 9/11 make us all mad? Our memorial to the innocents who died nine years ago has been a holocaust of fire and blood.
Koran-burning pastor ‘has gone mad’ and ‘needs help,’ daughter says The estranged daughter of a Florida pastor who has threatened to burn copies of the Koran believes he has gone mad and needs help, she said in a German media interview conducted on Friday.
We have failed, admits UN, as fresh wave of Congo rapes emerges The United Nations has been urged to go back to basics in protecting civilians in Eastern Congo after admitting that 500 rapes in the space of a single month amounted to a serious failure in its mission.
9 Years Later, Nearly 900 9/11 Responders Have Died, Survivors Fight for Compensation The victims of 9/11 are being remembered in many places around the world, Russia among them. Dozens have come to lay flowers at the US Embassy in the Russian capital.
“We’re dead men walking”: The toxic legacy of 9/11 More than 10,000 Ground Zero workers – known as “first responders” – are suffering from serious and even fatal illnesses after inhaling the toxic dust cloud caused by the crumbling towers.
Firefighter battles cancer he got from 9/11 toxins Nine years after the attacks of 9/11, many heroes from that day are still fighting for their lives. One of them is a firefighter, who is struggling to stay alive for his family.
The Anniversary of 9/11 Washington’s Blog | If even the 9/11 Commissioners don’t buy the official story, why do you?
Execs with criminal records slip through FHA crackdown (Washington Post) A crackdown on reckless mortgage lenders has failed to root out several executives with criminal records whose firms continue to do business with the agency in violation of federal law.
Obama defends Democrats' economic initiatives (Washington Post) [ What initiatives? Hands off fraudulent wall street by no prosecutions, fines, jail, disgorgement which would have gone a long way to cleansing / righting the economic / financial system? Rallying congress (see infra – new FASB rule change to mark to anything valuation of worthless assets and the 157 Rule change that allowed banks to park all their losses in a bucket called other comprehensive income (OCI). OCI appears on the balance sheet, but not on the income statement and thus does not affect earnings ) toward greater obfuscation of continuing economic dilemma / debacle? Fake data as in the most recent batch of estimated unemployment claims? Increased war spending in Afghanistan despite defacto bankruptcy of the nation? ] Obama said he would use the fall campaign season to remind voters of the sinking economy he inherited when he took office and what measures he has since put in place.
Defense cuts could slow D.C. economy for years (Washington Post) [ Well, giving credence to the 9/11 Truthers and a reason why the attacks were allowed to go forward and even in part why those mossad agents on the banks of the Hudson in Weehawken, n.j. were cheering as the twin towers were in flames, war, both legal and illegal when they’re greedy enough which is almost always, and war profiteering specifically, is very big business; but alas, more destructive, both home and abroad, than constructive in both real and economic terms; and then of course, the geopolitical toll which will linger far longer than the ephemeral short-term gains for the unscrupulous few. ( I had a full-professor who was also a CPA for my Cost Accounting Course as required for my MBA in Finance, evening program, NYU GBA. He referenced his own military experience in pointing out the folly of much of the military budgetary / spending process in terms of his duties which included each day firing off munitions (small mortars, ‘rockets’, etc.) at nothing whatsoever at all, if only to make sure at the end of the month (longer periods) more munitions / spending would have to be budgeted and purchased and so on. They’ve certainly come a long way in the ‘budgetary / spending’ process by creating wars to maintain same. This can never be justified; and, after all, the nation’s defacto bankrupt. ). What isn’t corrupt / fraudulent in washington d.c., or in America generally, for that matter? ] After surging during post-9/11 era, the industry now braces for a major contraction and layoffs that could produce a significant drag on region.
Unemployment Claims Not as Bullish as They Seem (Why? Kudrna:‘The Labor Department reported Thursday morning that new claims for unemployment dropped a seasonally adjusted 27,000 to 451,000. Unexpected bullish news, right? The markets immediately gapped-up on this information as the bulls found good reason to buy. Unexpected positive news is almost always met with a bullish move north as it’s rarely priced in. However, a useful tidbit of information about that shockingly large drop came out after the gap-up. Bloomberg reported that nine states didn't file claims data to the Labor Department in Washington because of the Labor Day holiday earlier this week. California and Virginia estimated their figures and the U.S. government estimated the other seven. Coincidence in the large drop or not? We will see when the next revision comes out but usually those revisions fail to make headlines as we are already focusing on future claims. This has been a great cover-up method for a long time…’
How Government Reporting Will Intensify the Inevitable , On Friday September 10, 2010, 12:41 pm EDT ‘Natural carbonation keeps a champagne bottle under constant pressure. The more you shake the bottle, the higher the pressure gets and the further the cork will eventually fly. Figuratively speaking, the government has been shaking the bottle. Watch out when the cork pops. On August 10, the Associated Press reported that the Federal Reserve has found a new trick to jumpstart the economy. Below is the full quote that shows why we probably can't expect unbiased assessments coming out of Washington, or the Fed's corner: 'The Federal Reserve policymakers are pondering ways to jumpstart the economic recovery. The trick: making sure whatever they do or say doesn't rattle Wall Street.' Some of the recent government statistics have been 'interesting' no doubt, and we know the administration has spent trillions in an attempt to lift the economy, but would it go as far as actually fudging statistics? We'll examine potential cases for 'data spiking' in a moment, but for now we'll take a look at one of the most popular government statistics, which is misleading to say the least.
GDP - Like a Flag in the Wind
GDP reports are prepared by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and are a science all in itself. GDP reports are often revised. The 'advance' estimate is published at the end of the first month following the close of a quarter. In addition to the 'advance' estimate, there are first and second revisions called the 'preliminary' and 'final' estimates. The 'final' estimate is reviewed annually, usually in July. Once every several years, the BEA reviews all data back to 1929. On July 30, the BEA lowered Q2 2010 growth from an estimated 2.7% to 2.4%. The real GDP for all three previous years was revised as well. It was lowered by 0.2% for 2007, it was lowered by 0.6% for 2008 and it was lowered by 0.4% for 2009 (see chart below)[chart]. In percentage terms, the real GDP for 2007 was revised down from 2.5% growth to 2.3%. The 2008 decrease was lowered from 1.9% to 2.8%, and 2009 growth was revised up from a 0.1% to a 0.2% increase. In essence, the BEA proved that the recession was (or is) much deeper and the alleged recovery much weaker than previously reported. Imagine if you would have based your 2007 and 2008 investment decisions on GDP reports. But wait, there is more. On August 27, the BEA lowered the Q2 2010 GDP growth from 2.4% to 1.6%. The financial media, however, applauded the reduction since the final 1.6 number was still higher than the 1.4% economists expected. Stocks rallied over 2% that day.
Unemployment Numbers - Not Deserving of Your Trust
Unemployment in August increased from 9.5% to 9.6%, but that's ok. Why? According to the financial media, the increase of unemployment was due to an increase in labor force. An estimated 6.6 million students will be graduating and joining the labor force this year. An increasing labor force is a reality, not an excuse to rationalize higher unemployment numbers. The real unemployment rate (U-6) reported by the BLS (but neglected by the financial media) jumped from 16.5% to 16.7%. Nevertheless, stocks rallied nearly 3% when unemployment figures were released on September 3rd. According to the BLS, the manufacturing sector lost 27,000 jobs in August. This, however, contradicts the positive August ISM manufacturing report, which rose from 55.5% to 56.3%. Here is the analysis from the Institute for Supply Management: 'A PMI in excess of 42 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the PMI indicates growth for the 16th consecutive month in the overall economy, as well as expansion in the manufacturing sector for the 13th consecutive month.' If you ask the unemployed, it doesn't feel like the manufacturing sector is improving.
Changing Rules to Accommodate Growth
Amidst the biggest financial meltdown since the Great Depression, the administration had to act quickly. The sheer amount of toxic assets overwhelmed the banking (NYSEArca: KBE - News) and financial sectors (NYSEArca: XLF - News), which led to the fall of Lehman Brothers and credit contraction around the globe (NYSEArca: EFA - News). It was impossible to eliminate trillions of bad loans or revive the ailing real estate market (NYSEArca: IYR - News). It was impossible to prop up faltering sectors like consumer discretionary (NYSEArca: XLY - News) and technology (NYSEArca: XLK - News). In short, it was impossible to change reality. It was, however, possible to change the prevailing perception and hide the root problems. In fact, it wasn't just possible; it proved to be fairly easy. The government simply urged the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) to change some rules. On April 2, 2009, the FASB changed Rule 157. The ripple effect caused by massive real estate losses suffered by the 'too big to fail' banks (NYSEArca: IYF - News), as well as regional banks (NYSEArca: KRE - News), threatened the integrity of the entire system. The 157 Rule change allowed banks to park all their losses in a bucket called other comprehensive income (OCI). OCI appears on the balance sheet, but not on the income statement and thus does not affect earnings. In late 2009 and early 2010, banks exceeded their earnings expectations - at least on paper - which created the perception that the economy was recovering. As it turns out, the timing for the Rule 157 change was perfect and coincided with the biggest stock market rally in recent history. A 50%+ run in the Dow Jones (DJI: ^DJI), S&P (SNP: ^GSPC), and Nasdaq (Nasdaq: ^IXIC) intensified the perception that the economy was on the mend. Before the accounting rule change and other government efforts, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter predicted the biggest rally since the October 2007 all-time highs. Via the March 2nd Trend Change Alert, the newsletter advised to close out previously recommended short positions (some gained 100% and more) and buy long and leveraged ETFs, many of which gained 50%, 100% or more.
Back to the Future
All was well until April 2010. Prior to the April highs, Mr. Bernanke, Mr. Geithner, and the President were campaigning for their fair share of credit for rescuing and reviving the country. Rather than examining and disclosing some of the government's questionable methods, the media jumped on the bandwagon and tickled the alleged 'saviors' egos. By doing so, the pressure in the champagne bottle was increased. More investors bought stocks under the mistaken view the economy had improved. This increased the pool of stock owners and the pipeline of sellers. As per the most recent GDP numbers, investors found out that the state of the economy is worse than previously thought. Furthermore, the government has lost credibility and some of its associated ability to inflate stock market confidence. Watch out, once the cork blows! Investors leaving the market could send prices falling as fast as champagne gushing out of a bottle. In fact, this exodus probably started already. On April 16, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter noted that: 'The cork seems to have popped. Reality is setting in. The pieces are in place for a major decline.' Following the April highs, the ensuing decline erased eight months worth of gains in a mere 22 trading days. An initial wave of somewhat critical media reports quickly faded as the stock market stabilized. Sideways trading tends to calm the nerves and get investors re-engaged before the hammer drops again. What's the moral of the story? Faulty government data and trend-following media reports tend to distort the real picture and postpone and intensify the inevitable.
The ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter combines the analysis of various indicators with common sense and out-of-the-box thinking to formulate a short, mid, and long-term forecast.’
Successful Economic Policies? For Whom? Last week, in the wake of another uptick in the official unemployment rate, the administration continued to claim that their economic policies were working, just not fast enough.
Can America Recover When The Majority Of Americans See A Double Dip, And Think The Country Is Fundamentally Broken? Earlier this week we asked, can the economy really recover when 92% of the population says the economy is garbage in a survey? That was the number in a WSJ/NBC poll, and it would seem to indicate a major headwind in terms of sentiment.
IMF Resumes Direct Gold Dumping, Sells 10 Tons Of The Shiny Metal To Bangladesh It has been a while since the IMF sold gold directly to sovereign countries.
U.S. drops in competitiveness ( Washington Post ) [ Fourth place for pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt america? I don’t think so; not in their wildest dreams, and there’s a lot of that in america these days, but little else. Reality says america’s place should be in the twenties at best.
Obama rating hits new low Overall, 41% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the president’s performance. Fifty-eight percent (58%) disapprove.
The Anniversary of 9/11 Washington’s Blog | If even the 9/11 Commissioners don’t buy the official story, why do you?
Congressman Ron Paul Hints At 2012 Presidential Campaign Steve Watson | “It’s something I think about every single day.”
Hamilton and Kean Call for Domestic Terrorism Agency Kurt Nimmo | A bipartisan effort is underway to demonize patriotic Americans as domestic terrorists.
Doctors Giving Veterans Questionnaire to Determine Mental Illness Infowars.com | In 2007, a bill passed in the House and Senate allowing government to deny Second Amendment to veterans.
Drudgereport: Thousands of Afghans protest Quran-burning plan...
Tennessee preacher to burn Quran...
Topeka, Kansas church vows burning...
Protester plans to burn on Wyoming's Capitol steps...
FLASHBACK: Muslims Burn Bibles and Destroy Crosses...
Ground Zero imam ignores pastor's two-hour deadline...
U.S. drops in competitiveness ( Washington Post ) [ Fourth place for pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt america? I don’t think so; not in their wildest dreams, and there’s a lot of that in america these days, but little else. Reality says america’s place should be in the twenties at best. Previous: U.S. drops in competitiveness (Washington Post) [ Singapore, Sweden, … ? Don’t make me laugh! From defacto bankrupt, meaningfully lawless america’s perspective, this fallen ranking was a gift and one must be asking, what were they smoking (or whose money were they taking?) and is the rest of the world really that bad off? ] Large deficits and a weakened financial system make the U.S. less competitive in the global economy, according to World Economic Forum's new ranking. Sweden Is A Better Place To Do Business Than The U.S. – [Well, that part is true, but …]. ‘…Sweden, by contrast, has “the world’s most transparent and efficient public institutions, with very low levels of corruption and undue influence.” Which loosely translated from wonk-speak sounds like, “You’re better off dealing with honest socialists than crony capitalists.”’ [ True enough, but I still don’t buy it (the rankings), especially america’s fourth place (as opposed to lower) ranking.]
Capitol Hill workers rack up back taxes ( Washington Post ) [ When you consider the pervasive corruption in their ranks and the redundancy / non-productive nature of government jobs, the case becomes irrefutably stronger for the abolition of same; particularly the lifetime appointees along with their plush accouterments, courts, etc.. Then there’s tiny tim geithner’s tax red flag, scofflaw hypocrit that he is. ] Capitol Hill employees owed $9.3 million in overdue taxes at the end of last year, a sliver of the $1 billion owed by federal workers nationwide but one with potential political ramifications for members of Congress.
Yeah! The lack of prosecutions and teeth therein has led to continued and bolder frauds and a complicit u.s. government! Stocks extend gains after drop in jobless claims [ Washington Post ] I was very disappointed to see this headline without disclaimor. Very disheartening.
[ It’s really quite amazing, and you won’t get this from the ‘money honeys’ or other mainstream drivel (actually I got this from the CBS news reporter, 1070am radio, but NOT their business report), the so-called better than expected jobs report (albeit bad at 451,000 continuing claims) was actually based upon federal government estimates for those reports that were not submitted owing to the holiday … and we all know how conservative the u.s. government is in making estimates, especially in election cycles when desperation abounds … riiiiight! ( Drudgereport: GOV'T MAKES IT UP: JOBS NUMBERS 'ESTIMATED' FOR WEEK... 'BETTER THAN EXPECTED'... ) Then there’s the ‘need more capital’ news from among the strongest players in the European sector, viz., Germany’s Deutsch Bank, which can only mean, particularly in light of their adoption of the fraudulent wall street american mark to anything valuation of worthless paper, still out there in the many (hundreds?) of trillions. (see infra, ‘…ECB chief economist Jurgen Stark tells German MPs that the banking system is insolvent. This led to complete shock because the newspaper headlines from July suggested the opposite. The German policy establishment is under the illusion that its banking system is sound because it passed what turned out to be fraudulent stress test…’) Now, if the German banking system’s insolvent, is there a term for double, triple, quadrupal, etc., insolvent for what the american banking system must be? One doesn’t need clairvoyance to know that only bodes ill. Stocks Cling to Skinny Gains, Can't Shake Banking Concerns ]
The Eerie Implications of Market Volume and Mutual Fund Flows ‘… Here's a more compelling question: If two-thirds or more of daily volume is a function of high-frequency trading, what are the implications for index prices over the long haul? A year has passed since I posted some charts illustrating the incredible ratio of S&P 500 volume devoted to five financial stocks. Today's game is no doubt different from last September. It may be about making money, but it probably has little to do with investing — which may explain a lot about current volume metrics and mutual fund flows. I'll update these volume charts periodically in the months ahead.’
Report From Europe: Fall in U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims Cheers Stocks The Mole … Today is Rosh Hashanah, the jewish New Year, in which it is believed the names of the righteous are recorded in the book of life, those in the middle ground are given ten days to repent and become good, while the wicked are deleted from the book of life. In essence, it is make or break time for the year. One wonders if we might be entering a similar phase for Ireland with landmark decisions over the fate of Anglo Irish Bank taken (with the cost of the funeral to be know in early October) and the funding cliff for Irish banks to refund some €25bn of maturing debt this month pending (though I feel fears over their capacity to roll this debt is way overblown)… Today’s Market Moving Stories
- Figures showed that the July US trade deficit declined more than expected today and reached -$42.8bn. Thus, June’s spurt to $-49.8bn seems to have been a blip in the data. In July, total exports gained M/M 1.8 percent while imports decreased 2.1 percent. As for growth, foreign trade is still set to be a slight drag on GDP in 2010Q3. After all, imports started into Q3 on a very elevated level (and significantly above the 2010Q2 average). However, the drag will be much less than Q2’s -3.4pp.
- While US initial jobless claims fell 27k to 451k last week. Claims moved sideways since the start of the year (the average since Jan is 466k), indicating that the improvement on the labour market did make scant headway. All in all, after a long spell of weak data, today’s releases offer some respite.
- In a combative speech, Obama conceded his policies have “fed the perception that Washington is still ignoring the middle class,” was billed as a major economic address to unveil a new round of proposals to kick-start a flagging economic recovery. The president did introduce three new policy proposals the White House has been rolling out for nearly a week: $50 billion in additional infrastructure spending, a permanent and expanded research and experimentation tax credit and a measure allowing businesses to write 100 percent of their investment costs off their taxes through 2011. But Mr. Obama’s speech was far more about politics than economics.
- ECB chief economist Jurgen Stark tells German MPs that the banking system is insolvent. This led to complete shock because the newspaper headlines from July suggested the opposite. The German policy establishment is under the illusion that its banking system is sound because it passed what turned out to be fraudulent stress test. Jurgen Stark is reported to have told a group of Christian Democrat MPs in Berlin that the German banking sector as a whole is undercapitalised. More controversially, he advised them to privatise the saving banks – the ultimate taboo because the savings banks are consider sacrosanct. FT Deutschland reported that Stark also relayed the assessment of US bankers that the German system could not conceivably survive the introduction of the tougher capital rules of Basel III.
- Japan has no choice but to intervene in currency markets to prevent the yen’s strength from decimating the nation’s industry, Barclays Capital said. The yen reached 83.35 versus the dollar yesterday, the highest since May 1995, threatening Japan’s export-led recovery. Industry and jobs won’t likely return from abroad even if the currency weakens eventually, and that prospect may force policy makers to intervene “in the immediate future,” said Tetsufumi Yamakawa, co-head of Japan research at Barclays. “If the yen’s strength lasts at current levels, factories, investment and jobs will all move overseas,” Yamakawa said at a forum in Tokyo yesterday.
- Australian job growth exceeded forecasts in August, sending the unemployment rate down to 5.1% and driving the nation’s currency higher on speculation the central bank will resume raising interest rates. Employers added 30,900 workers in August, exceeding the median forecast for 25,000 in a Bloomberg News survey of 25 economists, the statistics bureau said in Sydney today. The jobless rate matched the lowest level since January 2009.,,
Worth a read: Michael Lewis has a field day: Beware of Greeks Bearing Bonds (Vanity Fair)
Tiny tim geithner Says China Needs to Let Market Drive Up Yuan Bloomberg | U.S. Treasury Secretary Tiny tim geithner said China must let the yuan rise more quickly to show trading partners that it’s following through on its promises [ Riiiiight! … Everyone’s just clamoring for american advice on the global meltdown precipitated by ‘american advice and consent’.]
Bad Math - Why The Bullish Case Doesn't Add Up , On Wednesday September 8, 2010, 3:19 pm EDT
1+1=2 2+2=4
The simplicity and accuracy of those calculations is undeniable. How about this equation? Fundamental Weakness + Technical Sell Signals + Overpriced Stocks = Lower Stock Prices. This calculation also seems to be simple and accurate. Let's look at some equations that don't make sense.
1+1=3 or Better Earnings = Higher Stock Prices
2+2=5 or Weaker than Expected Economy = Rising Stock Prices
3+3=7 or Positive Analyst Estimates = Higher Stock Prices
4+4=9 or Technical Sell Signals = Higher Stock Prices
5+5=11 or Overvalued Stocks = Higher Prices
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