Business / Economic / Financial
[ This link to a somewhat more cumulative blog posts page will precede current days news since most all topics remain current in terms of impact and longer-term effect and can be searched by topical index term more easily. The same is provided since the blog site http://alpeiablog.blogspot.com has just been censored as to size by google which is typical for google as nsa / cia / gov’t shill as more are becoming aware of. The same is true for microsoft, another co. that’s seen their best days and relies on the government to maintain their monopoly. Up to now the better page http://www.scribd.com/alpeia is provided for ease of formatting and clarity thereby while the Washington Post page is the real deal but without formatting http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp- srv/community/mypost/index.html?plckPersonaPage=PersonaComments&plckUserId=alpeia&newspaperUserId=alpeia (Only up to 3-11-11-you must be logged in - (Washington Post) [ Comments COMMENTS ARE CLOSED WHILE WE UPGRADE OUR SYSTEMS ] the comments are no longer archived on their site ) . The following is the cumulative archive of blog posts / topics for 2010 as the new year starts anew (and archived by quarter): http://albertpeia.com/December312010postsarchive.htm or PDF formatted version
http://albertpeia.com/December312010postsarchive.pdf ]
UBS bank admits rigging bids (Washington Post) Swiss bank reaped millions of dollars of illegal profits by rigging municipal bond transactions in 36 states, government said. [ The key here is ‘Swiss’ and ‘millions of dollars of illegal profits’ when the american banks / wall street frauds’ generated hundreds of billions in illegal profits, which frauds continue to this day by way of slightly subdued high-frequency trading / commission-generated scams along with cover-up and cash-out from the last, still unprosecuted fraud in the trillions for which disgorgement, fines is long overdue. 24 Signs Of Economic Decline In America ‘The United States is in the middle of a devastating long-term economic decline and it is getting really hard to deny it. ..’ ] States face shortfall for retirees (WP) Public workers’ retirement funds had a gap of $1.26 trillion at the end of fiscal 2009, a report says.
Study: Affordable rentals scarce (WP)
Poll: For Obama, low marks on Afghan war (WP) More Americans disapprove of President Obama’s management of the war in Afghanistan than support it, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll, a finding that reflects the public’s broader concern over the course of the nearly decade-old conflict.
Fuel prices cut into Obama popularity (WP) (The frauds on wall street et als should be criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed), and have used the mideast turmoil to obfuscate their failure. Dave's Daily 'If you can keep interest rates this low this long, its inevitable cheap financing can allow companies to start cobbling each other up. Further Ben's policies allow companies like IBM to sell bonds at 1% and buy back shares with the proceeds (total paper bubble-scam). POMO is occurring almost daily and Primary Dealers can buy back their shares and pay dividends with what essentially is taxpayer money-- … an especially great opportunity to sell / take profits while you still can since there's much worse to come! America Is a Failed State Because It Won’t Prosecute Financial Crime Washington’s Blog / the grim economic reality [ http://albertpeia.com/grimreality.htm ]. Selling In May Is Very Good Advice This Year Harding / April Is a Good Time to Sell Adler Equity Valuations Are Forming the Second Biggest Bubble in U.S. History Kaspar ... According to Yale University’s Dr. Robert Shiller, the market is now 41% overvalued …only time the markets have been more overvalued .. 1929 & tech bubble. http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2011/4/12/saupload_cape_thumb1.png PRECHTER: We're Still In A Massive Bear Market And Stocks Will Crash To New Lows Return of Inflation: 5 Worrying Signs From Friday's NY Times
]
Is this a Republican distress call? (Washington Post) The first presidential primary debate will be distinguished more by who isn’t there than who is. [ What do debates matter in pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt america? Take ‘wobama the b’ for b***s***. What did what he said in debates actually matter in reality. Wobama, the failed president as was his predecessor, is a complete and total fraud. Let the budget battle begin After two weeks of tumultuous meetings with constituents, Congress returns to a lengthy fight over the nation’s solvency. (WP) [ Or more aptly put, stated another way, the nation’s solvency is over. .. america’s defacto bankrupt with no end in sight.. interest alone is eating progressively into GDP beyond the subterfuge.. Gerson: How serious are we about the deficit? (WP) [ Not much! I mean come on! Davis ‘… This is how we pay off our current debts and I think bondholders are simply happy to get anything out of a country that admits it owes $15Tn (1/4 of global GDP) but probably owes closer to $60Tn (entire global GDP) in the form of unfunded liabilities. The funniest thing about this (and you have to laugh) is to see Conservative pundits get on TV and talk about how we need to cut $100Bn worth of discretionary spending to "fix" this (while continuing to spend $1Tn on the military and $1Tn on tax cuts for the top 1% each year). There is no fixing this and even a Republican said you can’t fool all of the people all of the time. THIS HOUSE OF CARDS IS TEETERING FOLKS – PLEASE BE CAREFUL OUT THERE! ‘ … Suckers’ rally to keep suckers suckered: Philadelphia Fed Depresses Economists Durden ‘..And here comes the first indicator that Q2 GDP is about to be mass revised by everyone, courtesy of Japan, and ongoing inflation pressures: the Philadelphia Fed collapsed from a revised 43.4 (a 27 year high) to 18.5, the lowest since November 2010… This is an especially great opportunity to sell / take profits while you still can since there's much worse to come! U.S. Economy Remains on Life Support Hansen ‘
- The Federal Reserve press conference by Chairman Bernanke which contained almost no new economic insights; and,
- An FOMC meeting with no policy changes or insights..
CIVIL RIGHTS PANEL TO PURSUE FED PROBE IN BLACK PANTHER CASE... ‘In emotional and personal testimony, an ex-Justice official who quit over the handling of a voter intimidation case against the New Black Panther Party accused his former employer of instructing attorneys in the civil rights division to ignore cases that involve black defendants and white victims’ Cases against Wall Street lag despite Holder’s vows to target financial fraud Obama has promised to hold Wall Street accountable for the meltdown. ):
‘THE OBAMA DECEPTION’ http://albertpeia.com/obamadeceptionhighqualityversion.flv ]
Dionne: Who is Obama? Now we know. (Washington Post) [ Oh really? Now you tell us what you really know about this fraud and failed president. Barack Obama: The Naked Emperor Shocking but true revelations from David Icke (a must read) | ‘…He has been covertly funded and supported ever since by the Trilateral Commission and its network of foundations connecting into the Ford Foundation, for whom Obama's mother worked... Does anyone really believe that someone, a 'man of the people', would simply appear from apparently nowhere to run the slickest and best-funded presidential campaign in American history? He was chosen long ago by those who wish to enslave the very people that Obama says he wants to 'set free'. The sources of Obama funding .. - Goldman, UBS, Citi, Credit Suisse, Deutsche, J.P. Morgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, etc. No wonder he went back on his pledge to accept the limitations of public funding … Obama is just more of the same, a big smile with strings attached, and controlled completely by those that chose him, trained him, sold him and provided his record funding, kept his many skeletons under wraps, like the gay sex and crack cocaine .. Larry Sinclair (from affidavit: 1. Who is Ron Allen that claims to be with your Presidential camp, who is alleged to claim that someone claiming to represent me called asking for $100,000, to keep me from coming forward about our (Obama and I) November 1999 encounter of sex and cocaine use?), ... Obama is just another Banksters' moll prostituting himself .., and that's why he supported the grotesque bail-out of the banking system and why he will always put their interests before the people. His financial advisors are straight from the Wall Street 'A' list, … Zionist Tim Geithner (Bilderberg Group, Trilateral Commission, Council on Foreign Relations), was appointed Treasury Secretary, a former employee of both the Council on Foreign Relations and the appalling Kissinger Associates. Obama's Treasury team locks into the inner circle around the Zionist Robert Rubin, Citi, Council on Foreign Relations, and economic advisor to Obama. Rubin, ..Illuminati Bilderberg Group, the man behind Citi's debacle.. rescued by taxpayers' money. The very people who caused the financial crisis .. appointed by Obama .. CIVIL RIGHTS PANEL TO PURSUE FED PROBE IN BLACK PANTHER CASE... ‘In emotional and personal testimony, an ex-Justice official who quit over the handling of a voter intimidation case against the New Black Panther Party accused his former employer of instructing attorneys in the civil rights division to ignore cases that involve black defendants and white victims ...’ Cases against Wall Street lag despite Holder’s vows to target financial fraud Obama has promised to hold Wall Street accountable for the meltdown. ):
‘THE OBAMA DECEPTION’ http://albertpeia.com/obamadeceptionhighqualityversion.flv ]
George W. Bush years echo through Obama’s signature security success (Washington Post) The president finds himself in contested legal terrain over how to fight stateless enemies. [ Like the two subject failed presidents, the press is sounding dumb and dumber on this ‘escapade’.
Red Alert: Government Had Osama bin Laden Frozen for Years
Kurt Nimmo and Alex Jones | Obama makes a suspiciously timed speech, claims Osama killed in Pakistan. Videos [ As set forth infra, I personally believe Osama’s been dead for quite some time. Indeed, for one on dialysis, he otherwise would have been nothing less than a modern day miracle in terms of longevity / mortality rates for those so afflicted, particularly under the ‘stressful’ circumstances involving evading capture, betrayal for money, etc.. His ‘surfacing’ for a ‘talk’ wouldn’t even pass muster in the most rudimentary requirements for ‘proof of life’. The release at this time of the ‘announcement’ is, rather than a victory lap so to speak, but rather a sign of weakness and desperation on the part of america whose global and domestic economic, financial, and geopolitical position is substantially diminished and declining rapidly and whose military industrial complex welfare plan along with the Orwellian diversion of the masses could at most yield a pyrrhic victory which also would require for consummation a wrap-up of this nation-bankrupting contrived war scenario, which is not likely. Moreover, the same comes at a time of systemic failure for pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt america While the ‘announcement’ plays well for the nonce, to the dumb, uninformed back home, the same will galvanize resistance in the name of their now martyr, Osama Bin Laden. In sum, other than somewhat questionable propaganda value, the announcement will have no measurable effect on america’s continuing mideast / global debacle. In other words, defacto bankrupt america has used up a ‘bullet’, albeit a blank at that! ]
In February, 2004, Iranian state radio claimed Osama bin Laden had been captured in Pakistan’s border region with Afghanistan “a long time ago.” Pentagon and Pakistani officials denied the report. “Osama bin Laden has been arrested a long time ago, but Bush is intending to use it for propaganda maneuvering in the presidential election,” the radio report said…’ Obama’s victory lap (Washington Post) The killing of bin Laden offered hope of instant renewal. [ Only wobama aficionado Mr. Milbank could latch onto this propagandist Orwellian dream and call it victory. Sounds like he’s shootin’ for a job in this failed presidency/administration as others, including from the Post, have done and made. 10 Reasons 2011 Is Feeling More and More Like 2008 Jensen ]
White House goes quiet on bin Laden raid (WashPost) As further questions about the original story surfaced, officials said they will neither release photos of a bloodied terrorist leader nor provide new details about the raid on his compound in Pakistan. [ OBL miraculously cured himself of kidney failure/ no shots fired/Was Bin Laden Assault A Jessica Lynch-Style Fable? Watson | Myriad of inconsistencies in alleged raid begin to resemble war propaganda fairytales told about Private Lynch and Pat Tillman Police State Expands On Bin Laden Death Hype Nimmo ‘World is safer,’ president says Osama exposed his cowardice. (WP) [ This former cia-supported ally may be legitimately described as many things; but coward is not one of them. Principled in giving up riches, comfort, he said americans are thieves; that is absolutely true, and I would add frauds, criminals, war criminals. Bullies / cowards;ie., wobama, bush, clinton, cheney, bush, et als Psychology forum Re: Bystander Effect ‘ I believe the foregoing psycho-babble to be
Rubbish/Hogwash/b.s.
While walking through Military Park (“park”/pedestrian thoroughfare/cement walks) in newark, n.j., I heard the clearly audible screams/cries of what turned out to be an old lady on the ground with blood streaming from her mouth. I ran toward the sound of the cries, the source of which I could not see because there were so many people... When I came to the woman, on the ground, blood streaming from her mouth, I asked what happened, to which she responded she had been hit in the mouth and knocked to the ground, her purse stolen/put inside her shopping bag, and she pointed out the criminal casually now walking across the main street. Nobody stopped to help her, many having passed her by. I slammed the thug to the ground so hard that, in light of all the blood and confusion, I thought I had been stabbed (the blood was from his elbows hitting the pavement so hard - no one helped/a crowd gathered/an undercover cop happened along). I testified at the Grand Jury Proceeding (he went to prison – pled out). (The other case I wrote about here - Having had occasion to have run down a mugger in newark, n.j. who apparent had followed a girl from the bank on her way to the bursar to pay tuition, though in pretty good shape, I was astounded by how totally exhausting such a pursuit was, ..The girl was not that seriously injured, did get her pocketbook and tuition back, and the criminal went to jail. The other thing about such a pursuit that amazed me was that no one else assisted the girl or me despite being in a position to do so).
CONCLUSION
The reality is that quite simply, the vast and overwhelming majority of americans are without any courage whatsoever. They are cowards, plain and simple. All the excuses, psycho-babble, in the world will not change that fact! ]
Top 3 Reasons Markets were Down Like a Geodetic Effect Wall St. Cheat Sheet May 4, 2011 ‘Markets closed down on Wall Street: DJI -0.66% SP500 -0.69% Nasdaq -0.47% Gold -1.64% Oil -1.95% .
Last week was a streak of winning markets. This week is over the hump — all losers. On the commodities front, Oil (NYSE:USO) sold off most of the day to at $108.89. Gold (NYSE:GLD) and Silver (NYSE:SLV) also sold off hard, with Silver getting slaughtered over 5% — two days in a row!
Today’s markets were down because:
1) Economic data was lackluster. This morning started with lower than expected Private Payrolls and continued with a steep month-over-month drop in the ISM Non-manufacturing Index (Don’t Miss: “Chart of the Day: US Services Sector Trying to Hold On“). Last week’s lackluster data is catching up to us as earnings hasn’t been the savior this week.
2) Gas prices in Hawaii broke $6 a gallon. Oil (NYSE:USO) may have dipped, but someone forgot to tell a lone gas station (NYSE:XOP) attendant in Hana, Hawaii where you can love yourself some gas for the bargain price of only $6.03 a gallon. The silly high number is so silly, every media outlet focused on rising gas prices despite traders slaughtering Oil (NYSE:USO) two days in a row. Well, no one said the mainstream media ever focused on the right meme.
3) Remember the PIIGS? Portugal finally screamed “mercy” and accepted a 78 billion Euro rescue package. As investors wake up to reality, some are finally changing to a “risk off” stance as more debt addicts are in line for harsh sessions of rehab. At least Americans don’t have to worry (yet) because this Pew chart shows we’re in the middle of a textbook relapse…’
Coming to a Head - Long-term Analysis of the U.S. Economy , May 4, 2011 ‘Based purely on the stock market, the economy should be rockin' and rollin', but while the market's performance has been stellar, the economy is flat. QE2 has disrupted the internal balance between stocks and the economy. With QE2 about to end, we ask, will stocks catch up with the economy or the economy with stocks?
Just how strong is the market? The SPDR S&P MidCap 400 ETF (NYSEArca: MDY - News) is trading at an all-time high, the Nasdaq-100 (Nasdaq: QQQQ - News) has surpassed its 2007 watermark, the Russell 2000 (NYSEArca: IWM - News) is closing in on its all-time high, the S&P 500 (SNP: ^GSPC) has doubled since March 2009, and the Dow (DJI: ^DJI) is viewed as the ultra safe haven in a world of turmoil.
How strong is the economy? Real estate (NYSEArca: IYR - News), the biggest wealth builder/destroyer in the country, is still weak. The Standard & Poor's Case-Shiller Home Price Index has dropped to the lowest level in nearly a decade. As the Home Price Index has fallen below March 2009 levels, residential REIT stocks have nearly tripled since then.
Another huge contributor to a healthy economy - unemployment - shows signs of improvements at a peripheral glance but continues to lag significantly if examined beyond the rosy headline numbers. To wit, if it wasn't for the labor force sliding to a near 30-year low, the headline unemployment number would be around 12% while the real unemployment would be around 20%.
Based on an 11-line surface analysis, stocks and the economy are out of sync. To see whether stocks will catch up with the economy, or vice versa, we'll need to slice beneath the service and examine the very foundation of our economy.
Multi-decade Economic Trend
Unnoticed by Wall Street, the economy has been shifting gears, and has gone from acceleration mode to coasting mode. How so?
A few decades ago, sweat-trenched U.S. manufacturing facilities were the most fertile, growth-producing environment on the planet. This growth was fueled by 'Made in America' products. The growth was organic and it was real.
When taking a closer look at the economy over the past 70 years, we see two distinct growth periods. Phase 1 lasted from 1947 - 1966 and phase 2 stretched from 1975 - 2000.
Throughout phase 1, GDP averaged 4.18% while unemployment was low. GDP during phase 2 averaged 3.40% with unemployment inching up.
http://www.etfguide.com//contributor/UserFiles/8/Image/Growth%20Periods%20Yahoo.gif
GE, a company that endured through both phases, provides important clues about the difference between both phases. Up until the end of phase 1, GE was known for manufacturing quality products like light bulbs, refrigerators, jet engines, and aircraft super chargers. GE's slogan was 'We bring good things to life.'
In the second phase, GE ventured into television and high finance. GE Capital, GE Commercial Finance, GE Money, GE Consumer Finance and NBC Universal contributed an ever-growing slice of GE's profit pie.
GE's focus shifted from manufacturing to financial engineering. If GE didn't build a product, it would finance the consumer's purchase of a competitor's product. It was just appropriate that GE's slogan was changed to 'Imagination at work.'
The 'New Normal' - New but not Normal
The concept of making money by using money, encouraged by the Fed's interest rate policy, lacked substance and sustainability. The 2000 tech (NYSEArca: XLK - News) crash was more pronounced than what we've seen from the decades before. The real estate boom was as gigantic as its subsequent bust.
The post-2007 financial crisis further highlighted the dangers of an economy low on manufacturing but rich on leverage, accounting tricks, and financial engineering. No wonder the average GDP for the 2001 - 2010 period - dubbed the lost decade - dropped to 1.71%.
But amnesia, or selective memory loss, usually triggered by rising prices, is not new to investors. The more stocks rally, the more excited investors become, the more dangerous the stock market gets.
Building an Air Castle?
The post meltdown economy has become a launching pad for the new economy and new key players. Facebook and Twitter are Wall Street's new darlings. Six of the founders and investors behind Facebook just made it on Forbes annual list of world's top billionaires and investors can't wait to get their hands on the upcoming IPOs.
According to Wall Street valuations, Facebook is worth as much as Home Depot or Boeing. Home Depot employs 306,000 workers, Boeing 154,000. Facebook sends paychecks to about 1,000 lucky individuals.
A happy go lucky investor looks at the new economy and says 'Wow, that's just marvelous.' A skeptical mind looks at it and wonders 'How long before that blows up in my face?'
Simple Math
As the economy is weakening, the government and the Fed's role in providing sufficient liquidity (QE2) to keep a faux system running is ever increasing. Government spending (unemployment benefits, social security, welfare, etc.) accounts now for 35% of all private U.S. income and 26% of GDP.
But, the government is nearly broke and will have to face massive spending cuts. The Federal Reserve can't currently risk any more QE as inflation concerns have become prohibitive.
From a fundamental point of view, the outlook is less than rosy. From the valuation standpoint (dividend yields near all-time low, mean reverting projected earnings near all-time high), stocks are looking over priced.
The only thing keeping stocks afloat is the remaining weeks of QE2 and a higher technical target.
The March ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter outlined the ideal up side target for a major market. While the up side target hasn't been reached, the market has reached frothy levels...’
Are We Headed for a Major Correction? The Housing Time Bomb ‘I wanted to take a few minutes and share a chart with you. As you all know I am not much of a T/A guy. However, over the longer term, I do watch them from time to time.
I often watch the Russell 2000 when I am looking for a trend change because it's usually the first sector that rolls over during bear markets.
After taking a peak at the monthly of the Russell, I couldn't help but take notice of an almost perfect double top:
http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2011/5/4/saupload_2011_05_03_tos_charts.png
My Take:
The Russell is much more sensitive than the rest of the market because it is comprised of smaller companies with matching smaller balance sheets. Therefore, they are much more susceptible to a weakening economy versus a huge company like Apple (AAPL) that sits on tens of billion in cash.
As a result, when things start to head south as a result of things like $4 gas, the market tends to sell these names first. The fact that it couldn't hold the trendline after breaking through the 2007 highs is something to take note of.
The Bottom Line:
So are we due for a major correction? Hard to tell. The Fed seems obsessed with taking the market higher, and it has decided to destroy our currency in order to due so in the process.
The reality here is no one wins this game if the dollar loses because stocks are priced in dollars, and if the currency cracks it's not going to matter where the market is.
The market, in my opinion, seems to be struggling with a colossal battle between the powerful forces of debt deflation and deleveraging, versus the equally powerful forces of inflation via currency debasing courtesy of the easy money Fed.
This battle has become a personal struggle for myself, which is why I haven't had much to say recently. Part of me believes that debt deflation is inevitable as the world realizes the trillions of digital dollars that people moronically borrowed over the past decade will never be paid back.
However, at the same time, you also have extremely powerful inflationary forces that are being created by the Fed as they continue money printing and keeping rates low at the same time the rest of the world takes rates higher. India just raised rates by .50 basis points yesterday.
Who will win this battle? Hard to say. I am positioning myself for both.
What I can tell you is what I have done with my positions recently:
I sold out of 50% of my silver at around $45. Things got a little too bubbly for me here. I will look for cheaper prices.
I shorted the Russell last week via TWM. I also continue holding some small short positions in SDS and QID. On the long side I bought the nuclear stock EXC when it got oversold following the Japanese nuclear disaster and I also added the titanium stock TIE.
I still hold the majority of my money in cash which at any moment could become worthless. This is a scary proposition to me but the way I see it the dollar should rise before it tanks because I think Europe is going to go down before we do.
Greece will default by the end of the year. The market has already priced it in. The rippling effects of this in terms of the rest of the PIIGS are flat out frightening to me but there is nothing I can do to control it.
All I can do here is stick to the fundamentals and the most important one to remember is risk is relative! As a result, I don't believe the dollar is toast just yet because the bond market continues to tell us that we are the best looking horse in the glue factory of bankrupt countries.
I write this post as a warning that something big could be coming. Please play defense and be safe.’
High-Probability, Mean-Reversion Strategy - Options Strategy Continues to Succeed Crowder ‘The High-Probability, Mean-Reversion Strategy continued its success Tuesday as the strategy triggered another good trade. This time it was the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY). SPY moved into a short-term extreme state on Friday so I purchased a few puts per the strategy guidelines. Tuesday, I was able to sell them for a decent 7.6% return. So far, after only one trade the strategy is up 5.6% for the month of May. Another trade like Tuesday and the strategy will certainly exceed April’s 10.5% gain.
Year-to-date the HPMR options strategy is up 37.7% . Check out the results.
The decline in the S&P falls right in line with the “sell in May” phenomenon that occurs during this time of year. Will it be this easy?
The market has looked frothy for weeks now, but I think the move in SLV over the last two days was the catalyst the bears needed. Or could it be that the market finally realizes that the strongest monetary and fiscal policy in U.S. history is not enough to keep this economy above water. Did you see the GDP last week – 1.8%. When GDP hit -6.8% and QE1 was enacted the economy came roaring and has done so for slightly over two years. But I think the fun is over. I think now, more than ever is the appropriate time to use sound options-based strategies.
Just look at the High-Probability, Mean-Reversion strategy’s performance over the past several days while the market was moving lower. A 7.6% return while the S&P has taken a turn for the worse.
Anyone, and I mean anyone, can make money when the market is in bull mode. I see the machismo every day. Analysts who think they have the hidden gem to riches. Touting how great they are during a strong bull rally, but neglecting to remember how they performed (if they even had money in the market) when the market was moving the other way. I see, read and hear it everyday.
And these same analysts who tout gains during bull markets know very little when it comes options and how powerful they can become during any type of market environment. Nor do they want to know.
Anyway, I could go on and on, but I will save it for tomorrow's post.
Short-Term High-Probability, Mean-Reversion Indicator – as of close 5/03/11
click to enlarge
http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2011/5/4/saupload_5_3_11_hpmr.png ‘
Dollar Falls to Three Year Low
Reuters | The yen also hit a six-week high against the dollar.
Is a Liquidity Crisis Brewing in Europe?
CNBC | Do we bailout the banks or do we throw more money at highly-indebted nations?
Report urges U.S. open door to China investment flood Reuters | Tens of billions of dollars of Chinese investment could flood into the United States in the next decade.
Dollar Hits 3 Year Low Against Basket Of Currencies The dollar hit a three-year low against a basket of currencies, as the euro gained to nearly $1.50. Stocks tumbled as energy and materials stocks continued to weaken, and as investors digested weak economic news on the service sector and jobs.
About 1 in 7 in U.S. Receive Food Stamps The number of food stamp recipients was essentially flat in February, the most recent month available, with 44.2 million Americans receiving benefits, according a new report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
‘Biggest Story in Market’ Is US ‘Currency Crash’: CEO “The biggest story in the market is the currency crash right now occuring in the US, I think a lot of people are debating whether it is in fact a currency crash,” Keith McCullough, CEO of Hedgeye Risk Management told CNBC.
WSJ Reports Soros, Burbank Selling Gold, Silver, While Paulson Sees Gold Hitting $4,000 In Three Years The rumormill around who is buying and selling precious metals is getting more ridiculous than daily Radioshack LBO speculation.
Let the budget battle begin After two weeks of tumultuous meetings with constituents, Congress returns to a lengthy fight over the nation’s solvency. (Washington Post) [ Or more aptly put, stated another way, the nation’s solvency is over. Now that would be cutting to the chase. After all, it’s a little late for ‘budget bustin’ heroics’. Quite simply, america’s defacto bankrupt with no end in sight, such being the insurmountable nature of same where interest alone is eating progressively into GDP beyond the subterfuge, smoke and mirrors, diversions. Gerson: How serious are we about the deficit? (Washington Post) [ Not much! I mean come on! Davis ‘… This is how we pay off our current debts and I think bondholders are simply happy to get anything out of a country that admits it owes $15Tn (1/4 of global GDP) but probably owes closer to $60Tn (entire global GDP) in the form of unfunded liabilities. The funniest thing about this (and you have to laugh) is to see Conservative pundits get on TV and talk about how we need to cut $100Bn worth of discretionary spending to "fix" this (while continuing to spend $1Tn on the military and $1Tn on tax cuts for the top 1% each year). There is no fixing this and even a Republican said you can’t fool all of the people all of the time. THIS HOUSE OF CARDS IS TEETERING FOLKS – PLEASE BE CAREFUL OUT THERE! ‘ … Suckers’ rally to keep suckers suckered: Philadelphia Fed Depresses Economists Durden ‘On Thursday April 21, 2011, 1:32 pm EDT And here comes the first indicator that Q2 GDP is about to be mass revised by everyone, courtesy of Japan, and ongoing inflation pressures: the Philadelphia Fed collapsed from a revised 43.4 (a 27 year high) to 18.5, the lowest since November 2010… This is an especially great opportunity to sell / take profits while you still can since there's much worse to come! U.S. Economy Remains on Life Support Hansen ‘This has been a whirlwind week for intangible monetary policy news which was lead by:
- The Federal Reserve press conference by Chairman Bernanke which contained almost no new economic insights; and,
- An FOMC meeting with no policy changes or insights.
My foggy long range economic view is of a moderately improving economy which is fighting growing fiscal headwinds. My takeaway from from the press conference and FOMC meeting was a fairly strong opinion by Chairman Bernanke that the economy was gaining enough traction to stand on its own without further accommodation.
A deeper look at advance 1Q2011 GDP real growth of 1.8% should quickly dispel this.
The economy is still in recession if the economic effects of the automatic stabilizers are taken into consideration. Automatic stabilizers are automatic changes in the government’s revenues and outlays that are attributable to cyclical movements in real output.
http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2011/5/1/saupload_z_weekly13.png …
]
U.S. debt Running in the red: How the U.S., on the road to surplus, detoured to massive debt (Washington Post) [ Detour, towar’, war … thieving, raping, pillaging and plundering … Davis ‘… This is how we pay off our current debts and I think bondholders are simply happy to get anything out of a country that admits it owes $15Tn (1/4 of global GDP) but probably owes closer to $60Tn (entire global GDP) in the form of unfunded liabilities. The funniest thing about this (and you have to laugh) is to see Conservative pundits get on TV and talk about how we need to cut $100Bn worth of discretionary spending to "fix" this (while continuing to spend $1Tn on the military and $1Tn on tax cuts for the top 1% each year). There is no fixing this and even a Republican said you can’t fool all of the people all of the time. THIS HOUSE OF CARDS IS TEETERING FOLKS – PLEASE BE CAREFUL OUT THERE! ‘ … Philadelphia Fed Depresses Economists Durden ‘And here comes the first indicator that Q2 GDP is about to be mass revised by everyone, courtesy of Japan, and ongoing inflation pressures: the Philadelphia Fed collapsed from a revised 43.4 (a 27 year high) to 18.5, the lowest since November 2010… This is an especially great opportunity to sell / take profits while you still can since there's much worse to come!
WallStCheatSheet:
- Market Direction : Regardless of the underlying trends, if the market is moving lower, in many instances the market dip can overwhelm any positive, stock- specific factors.
- Profit Taking : Many times investors holding a long position will have price targets or levels, if achieved, that will trigger selling whether positive elements are in place or not.
- Interest Rates : Certain valuation techniques (e.g. Discounted Cash Flow and Dividend Discount Model) integrate interest rates into the value calculation. Therefore, a climb in interest rates has the potential of lowering stock prices – even if the dynamics surrounding a particular security are excellent.
- Quality of Earnings : Sometimes producing winning results is not enough. On occasion, items such as one-time gains, aggressive revenue recognition, and lower than average tax rates assist a company in getting over a profit hurdle. Investors value quality in addition to quantity.
- Outlook : Even if current period results may be strong, on some occasions a company’s outlook regarding future prospects may be worse than expected. A dark or worsening outlook can pressure security prices.
- Politics & Taxes : These factors may prove especially important to the market this year, since this is a mid-term election year. Political and tax policy changes today may have negative impacts on future profits, thereby impacting stock prices.
- Other Exogenous Items : Natural disasters and security attacks are examples of negative shocks that could damage price values, irrespective of fundamentals.
Obama’s victory lap (Washington Post) The killing of bin Laden offered hope of instant renewal. [ Only wobama aficionado Mr. Milbank could latch onto this propagandist Orwellian dream and call it victory. Sounds like he’s shootin’ for a job in this failed presidency/administration as others, including from the Post, have done and made. 10 Reasons 2011 Is Feeling More and More Like 2008 Jensen ‘The market ended April as it began, grinding up on low volume, ignoring increasingly worsening energy prices, continued turmoil in the Middle East and slowing worldwide economic growth. To me it feels like we are in the calm before the storm. More specifically, it eerily feels like the months before the financial crisis and meltdown of 2008. The similarities are striking to me and think the market is ignoring the signs of an impending and significant pullback over the summer.
Here are ten reasons 2011 is starting to feel so much like 2008.
- Gas prices are rising rapidly and starting to impact consumer spending and sentiment. On Thursday, gas prices hit this highest level since July 31st, 2008 and have risen every month since last August, up over 30% since the “Arab Spring” commenced in Tunisia. Consumer discretionary stocks are particularly vulnerable. Avoid high priced retailers like Lululemon (LULU) and Under Armour (UA) as well as retailers focused on demographics especially vulnerable to high gas prices, such as Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF).
- Despite numerous federal programs (mostly failed), the housing market remains moribund. Prices continue to fall across most markets in the United States, albeit at a slower rate than 2008 and in the immediate aftermath of the financial crisis. New housing starts are bumping along at record lows and are contributing little to job growth.
- The Federal Reserve continues to be behind the curve. In 2008, the subprime loan problem was “contained”. In 2011, Bernanke can’t seem to see any signs of inflation despite rapidly rising energy and food prices (they are not “core” components of the Index Blind Ben places his faith in, after all) or all through the commodity complex.
- In 2008, we were fighting military actions in two Middle Eastern countries; Iraq and Afghanistan. In 2011, we are still fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan and have added ½ a war in Libya, which we have outsourced to NATO. Given the quickening pace of unrest in that volatile area of the world and our incoherent policy .. However, given the worsening events in the region, a higher floor for oil prices has been established in the short and medium term.
- World food prices increased dramatically in the 1st and 2nd quarter of 2008 creating a global crisis and causing political and economical instability and social unrest in both poor and developed nations. The price of wheat has gone up 75% in the last year and many foodstuffs have more than doubled in price over the last twelve months. In 2008, this produced food riots in many developing countries. In 2011, we have uprisings throughout the Middle East ..
- In May 2008, the market was worried about which was the next financial institution to fall after the Bear Stearns debacle. In May 2011, the market is waiting to see what European sovereign state will be the next to need a bailout after Greece, Ireland and Portugal and what the ramifications will be for the credit markets.
- In 2008, gold hit $900 an ounce in January of that year and $1000 an ounce for the first time in March 2008. In 2011, gold and silver just hit all time highs last week with gold hitting $1535 an ounce and silver in a distinct bubble at $50 an ounce.
- As in 2008, U.S. GDP growth was anemic in the first quarter. In 2008, economic growth clocked in at .6% in Q1. In 2011, GDP growth was better at 1.8% but show a significant slowdown from the previous quarter.
- As in 2008, the fiscal and monetary policies of the United States have led to a decline in the value of its currency. Despite significant problems in Europe and Japan, the dollar index just hit its lowest point since July 2008. This is a major contributor to the increasing inflation ..
- In 2008, China, the world’s third largest economy, instituted a series of measures to curb growth in order to address increasing inflation and the beginnings of a property bubble. The Shanghai Index fell over 10% in the first half of 2008. In 2011, ..the Shanghai Index has been flat despite the S&P being up approximately 15% over the same time period ]
SPX Pullback History: 2009-2011
[chart http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2011/5/3/saupload_spxpullbacks09_11050311.png ]
CHART OF THE DAY: Watch the US Debt Set a 60 Year Record
(5-4-11) Dow 12,723 -84 Nasdaq 2,829 -12 S&P 500 1,347 -9 [CLOSE- OIL $108.98 (-54% for year 2008) (RECORD TRADING HIGH $147.27) GAS $3.96 (reg. gas in LAND OF FRUITS AND NUTS $4.22 REG./ $4.35 MID-GRADE/$4.45 PREM./ $4.61 DIESELL) / GOLD $1,517 (+24% for year 2009) / SILVER $39.22 (+47% for year 2009) PLATINUM $1,819 (+56% for year 2009) Metal News for the Day / DOLLAR= .67 EURO, 80 YEN, .59 POUND STERLING, ETC. (How low can you go - LOWER)/ Interest Rates: http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield 10 YR NOTE YIELD 3.22% …..… AP Business Highlights ...Yahoo Market Update... T. Rowe Price Weekly Recap – Stocks / Bonds / Currencies - Domestic / International This Is a Secular Bear Market and The End of Buy and Hold … and Hope The bull market that never was/were beyond wall street b.s. when measured in gold ‘WORST ECONOMIC COLLAPSE EVER’ Must Read Economic / Financial Data This Depression is just beginning The coming depression… thecomingdepression.net The Next Wave of Collapse is Coming Sooner than you think Sliding Back Into the Great Depression ABSOLUTELY, ABSURDLY, RIDICULOUS! SELL / TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME!
National / World
Was Bin Laden Assault A Jessica Lynch-Style Fable? Paul Joseph Watson | Myriad of inconsistencies in alleged raid begin to resemble war propaganda fairytales told about Private Lynch and Pat Tillman
Police State Expands On Bin Laden Death Hype Kurt Nimmo | Purported assassination will be used to tighten police state grid in U.S.
Purported “Bin Laden Raid Kill Photos Released” Kurt Nimmo | Gruesome photos bait the hook for propaganda to come.
Question for Time: Are Assertions of Top Spymaster “Black Helicopter Fantasies”? Paul Joseph Watson | When will Time Magazine and the rest of the establishment peanut gallery dwellers address assertions of former U.S. Navy Captain Pieczenik?
Was Bin Laden Assault A Jessica Lynch-Style Fable? Paul Joseph Watson | Myriad of inconsistencies in alleged raid begin to resemble war propaganda fairytales told about Private Lynch and Pat Tillman
Obama: No Osama Death Photos CNN | Government concludes “there is no doubt we killed Osama bin Laden.”
Question For Time Magazine: Are The Assertions of a Top Spymaster Who Worked Under 5 Different US Presidents “Black Helicopter Fantasies”? Even as the Obama administration’s dubious account of the alleged capture and assassination of Obama Bin Laden begins to crumble, and Obama himself backs away from releasing a photo of Osama’s corpse, the establishment media is still doing its best to prop up the hoax that everyone aside from a gaggle of frothing ‘conspiracy theorists’ wholeheartedly believes the circus we have been subjected to since Sunday evening.
Photos From Inside “Bin Laden Compound”: No Weapons, No Bin Laden (Warning – Graphic) Photographs acquired by Reuters and taken about an hour after the U.S. assault on Osama bin Laden’s compound in Abbottabad in Pakistan show three dead men lying in pools of blood, but no weapons.
Osama bin Laden Murder Fable: A Work in Progress Like the official story on the attacks of September 11, 2001, the story on the supposed murder of Osama bin Laden is a work in progress.
Obama Says He Won’t Release Bin Laden Death Photo President Barack Obama said he has decided not to release a photograph of terrorist leader Osama bin Laden’s body, CBS News reported.
Was Bin Laden Assault A Jessica Lynch-Style Fable? The myriad of inconsistencies that continue to be unearthed in light of the White House’s ever-changing account of the alleged capture and assassination of Osama Bin Laden are beginning to resemble two other war propaganda fables that were presented to the American people as heroic episodes of US military might yet turned out to be nothing less than outright deceptions used to generate contrived pro-war patriotism – the “rescue” of Jessica Lynch and the death of Pat Tillman.
Pentagon, White House Can’t Get Their Bin Laden Fairy Tale Straight The purported Bin Laden raid hoax gets kookier by the minute. The account has already changed multiple times over as the Pentagon and the White House do not seem to be able to get their story straight with each other. The entire debacle is only serving to throw up more questions and create more doubt over the legitimacy of the entire fable.
Pakistani Official: No Firefight — ‘Not a Single Bullet Fired From Compound’… A Pakistani official rejected U.S. accounts of a bloody firefight, saying: ‘Not a single bullet was fired from the compound at the U.S. forces and their choppers. Their chopper developed some technical fault and crashed and the wreckage was left on the spot.’
Rumsfeld, White House, Senate Intelligence Chair and Senator Graham Confirm Waterboarding NOT Responisble for Getting Bin Laden Monday, I pointed out that Bin Laden’s death does not justify torture. Top republicans and democrats – who have direct knowledge of waterboarding at Guantanamo – agree.
Top US Government Insider: Bin Laden Died In 2001, 9/11 A False Flag Top US government insider Dr. Steve R. Pieczenik, a man who held numerous different influential positions under three different Presidents and still works with the Defense Department, shockingly told The Alex Jones Show yesterday that Osama Bin Laden died in 2001 and that he was prepared to testify in front of a grand jury how a top general told him directly that 9/11 was a false flag inside job.
Expert: Grope Down Checkpoints Coming To Malls Security consultant David Boehm said the future could include security check points entering all soft targets — like your local department store. Boehm said even with a police presence, the areas are vulnerable.
‘World is safer,’ president says Osama bin Laden is portrayed as a reclusive figure whose final moments exposed his cowardice. (Washington Post) [ This former cia-supported ally may be legitimately described as many things; but coward is not one of them. Principled in giving up riches, comfort, he said americans are thieves; that is absolutely true, and I would add frauds, criminals, war criminals. Bullies / cowards;ie., wobama, bush, clinton, cheney, bush, et als … - I wrote: Psychology forum Re: Bystander Effect ‘… I believe the foregoing psycho-babble to be absolute, unequivocal
Rubbish/Hogwash/b.s.
The foregoing web site is, from direct experience, lacking credibility. Indeed, while walking through Military Park (a sliver of a “park” - more a pedestrian thoroughfare/cement walks) in newark, new jersey on the way to the bank during lunch hour, I heard the clearly audible screams/cries of what turned out to be an old lady on the ground with blood streaming from her mouth. I ran toward the sound of the cries, the source of which I could not see because there were so many people in and about this thoroughfare so as to block any vision of the source of the cries. When I came to the woman, on the ground, blood streaming from her mouth, I asked what happened, to which she responded she had been hit in the mouth and knocked to the ground, her purse stolen/put inside her shopping bag, and she pointed out the criminal casually now walking across the main street. Nobody stopped to help her, many having passed her by. I slammed the thug to the ground so hard that, in light of all the blood and confusion (limbic system / adrenalin flow) I thought I had been stabbed (the blood was from his elbows hitting the pavement so hard - no one helped/a crowd gathered/an undercover cop happened along). When I testified at the Grand Jury Proceeding I made sure his threat on my life was set forth in prima facie fashion so as to maximize the DA’s position with both felonies (he went to prison – pled out). (The other case I wrote about here - Having had occasion to have run down a mugger in newark, n.j. who apparent had followed a girl from the bank on her way to the bursar to pay tuition, though in pretty good shape, I was astounded by how totally exhausting such a pursuit was, how much like rubber my arms were when I traded punches with the perpetrator, and truth be told, if I had a flashlight on my belt, I have little doubt that I would have probably used it to subdue the perp. The girl was not that seriously injured, did get her pocketbook and tuition back, and the criminal went to jail. The other thing about such a pursuit that amazed me was that no one else assisted the girl or me despite being in a position to do so).
CONCLUSION
The reality, though difficult for many, including psychologists to accept is that quite simply, the vast and overwhelming majority of americans are without any courage whatsoever. They are cowards, plain and simple. All the excuses, rationalizations, etc., psycho-babble if you will, in the world will not change that fact. I could cite numerous instances involving white collar/RICO crimes involving such cowardice as well. I understand statistics, the term ad hoc, sampling, etc.. The conclusion stands!.
Red Alert: Government Had Osama bin Laden Frozen for Years
Kurt Nimmo and Alex Jones | Obama makes a suspiciously timed speech, claims Osama killed in Pakistan. Videos [ As set forth infra, I personally believe Osama’s been dead for quite some time. Indeed, for one on dialysis, he otherwise would have been nothing less than a modern day miracle in terms of longevity / mortality rates for those so afflicted, particularly under the ‘stressful’ circumstances involving evading capture, betrayal for money, etc.. His ‘surfacing’ for a ‘talk’ wouldn’t even pass muster in the most rudimentary requirements for ‘proof of life’. The release at this time of the ‘announcement’ is, rather than a victory lap so to speak, but rather a sign of weakness and desperation on the part of america whose global and domestic economic, financial, and geopolitical position is substantially diminished and declining rapidly and whose military industrial complex welfare plan along with the Orwellian diversion of the masses could at most yield a pyrrhic victory which also would require for consummation a wrap-up of this nation-bankrupting contrived war scenario, which is not likely. Moreover, the same comes at a time of systemic failure for pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt america While the ‘announcement’ plays well for the nonce, to the dumb, uninformed back home, the same will galvanize resistance in the name of their now martyr, Osama Bin Laden. In sum, other than somewhat questionable propaganda value, the announcement will have no measurable effect on america’s continuing mideast / global debacle. In other words, defacto bankrupt america has used up a ‘bullet’, albeit a blank at that! ]
In February, 2004, Iranian state radio claimed Osama bin Laden had been captured in Pakistan’s border region with Afghanistan “a long time ago.” Pentagon and Pakistani officials denied the report. “Osama bin Laden has been arrested a long time ago, but Bush is intending to use it for propaganda maneuvering in the presidential election,” the radio report said…’ ]
Drudgereport: The official, who wished to remain anonymous, sold the pictures to REUTERS...
OBAMA, NO PHOTOS OF OSAMA: 'We don't need to spike the football'...
'Conspiracy theorists will just claim doctored'...
Sen. Scott Brown: 'I've seen picture, he's definitely dead'...
UPDATE: 'The photo I saw and that a lot of other people saw is not authentic'...
Top Dem: No photo needed, 'there's absolute proof'...
REUTERS RELEASES 'DEATH SCENE' PHOTOS
**WARNING GRAPHIC**
UPDATE: Photo proving bin Laden's death to Sen. Brown was faked...
Possibly three senators fell for fakes...
Pakistan: 'Not a single bullet fired from compound'...
WIRE: Photos from 1 hour after raid show 3 dead, no weapons...
The Slippery Story of the bin Laden Kill...
Official says 'killed apparently by the U.S. raid team'...
DOLLAR HITS 3 YEAR LOW...
1 IN 7 ON FOOD STAMPS!
Job numbers disappoint...
Treasury suggests $2 trillion debt cap raise...
Recovery efforts may be bad for dollar (Washington Post) U.S. efforts to speed the economic recovery could transform the currency’s slow decline into a precipitous fall. [ Oh, riiiiight! That ‘method’ to their madness. I’d like to know at this point in the continuing debacle just what possibly could be realistically good for the dollar. SPX Pullback History: 2009-2011
chart http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2011/5/3/saupload_spxpullbacks09_11050311.png
CHART OF THE DAY: Watch the US Debt Set a 60 Year Record
Wall Street falls as earnings fears threaten rally (Reuters) - Reuters - stocks fell on Tuesday as investors questioned the sustainability of the rally in light of fresh worries about earnings growth in the coming quarters.
[video] Trader: I See Stagflation
Prominent Attorney Jonathon Bristol Pleads Guilty in Kenneth Starr Money Laundering Crime
Economist says bin Laden’s death won’t boost economy KTAR | Any future attacks by al Qaeda on oil pipelines would certainly have a negative impact.
US Debt Rating Should Be ‘C’: Independent Agency CNBC.com | There have been increasing concerns about the fate of United States’ prized triple-A sovereign debt rating.
U.S. Treasury: China Has Decreased Its Holdings of U.S. Debt CNS | Mainland China has decreased its holdings of U.S. Treasury securities since last October.
Pakistani stocks, economy in jeopardy after Bin Laden death The Pakistani economy and equities may be in jeopardy after the death of Osama Bin Laden.
Rand Paul: Is There A Connection Between The Killing Of Bin Laden & Raising The Debt Ceiling? Sen. Paul and Judge Napolitano talk about the debt ceiling and the War on Terror.
US Debt Rating Should Be ‘C’: Independent Agency There have been increasing concerns about the fate of United States’ prized triple-A sovereign debt rating. While Standard and Poor’s recently downgraded its U.S. debt outlook to negative from stable, implying that a ratings cut could happen in two years, one independent ratings agency has given the U.S. sovereign rating a “C”.
As Food Stamp Recipients Hit New Record, 400 Americans Account For 10% Of Capital Gains Today SNAP released the most recent food stamp numbers. Not surprisingly, we just saw another all time high 44.2 million poverty-level Americans relying on government funding for day to day sustenance. ]
Deal on controlling debt stalls (Washington Post) A bipartisan effort to rein in the national debt stalls, as members of the Senate’s so-called Gang of Six signal that an agreement is unlikely to come in time for the start of White House-led budget talks. [ Who woulda’ thunk it? Riiiiight! Stalling in washington … I’ve experienced it myself. Let the budget battle begin After two weeks of tumultuous meetings with constituents, Congress returns to a lengthy fight over the nation’s solvency. (Washington Post) [ Or more aptly put, stated another way, the nation’s solvency is over. Now that would be cutting to the chase. After all, it’s a little late for ‘budget bustin’ heroics’. Quite simply, america’s defacto bankrupt with no end in sight, such being the insurmountable nature of same where interest alone is eating progressively into GDP beyond the subterfuge, smoke and mirrors, diversions. Gerson: How serious are we about the deficit? (Washington Post) [ Not much! I mean come on! Davis ‘… This is how we pay off our current debts and I think bondholders are simply happy to get anything out of a country that admits it owes $15Tn (1/4 of global GDP) but probably owes closer to $60Tn (entire global GDP) in the form of unfunded liabilities. The funniest thing about this (and you have to laugh) is to see Conservative pundits get on TV and talk about how we need to cut $100Bn worth of discretionary spending to "fix" this (while continuing to spend $1Tn on the military and $1Tn on tax cuts for the top 1% each year). There is no fixing this and even a Republican said you can’t fool all of the people all of the time. THIS HOUSE OF CARDS IS TEETERING FOLKS – PLEASE BE CAREFUL OUT THERE! ‘ … Suckers’ rally to keep suckers suckered: Philadelphia Fed Depresses Economists Durden ‘On Thursday April 21, 2011, 1:32 pm EDT And here comes the first indicator that Q2 GDP is about to be mass revised by everyone, courtesy of Japan, and ongoing inflation pressures: the Philadelphia Fed collapsed from a revised 43.4 (a 27 year high) to 18.5, the lowest since November 2010… This is an especially great opportunity to sell / take profits while you still can since there's much worse to come! U.S. Economy Remains on Life Support Hansen ‘This has been a whirlwind week for intangible monetary policy news which was lead by:
- The Federal Reserve press conference by Chairman Bernanke which contained almost no new economic insights; and,
- An FOMC meeting with no policy changes or insights.
…
A deeper look at advance 1Q2011 GDP real growth of 1.8% should quickly dispel this.
The economy is still in recession if the economic effects of the automatic stabilizers are taken into consideration. Automatic stabilizers are automatic changes in the government’s revenues and outlays that are attributable to cyclical movements in real output.
http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2011/5/1/saupload_z_weekly13.png …]
Rising gas prices shift debate (Washington Post) A year after a massive oil spill, a single concern is prompting push for more drilling: $4-a-gallon gas. [Ah, riiiiight! Drilling … that’s it … not an end to ‘no-recession-helicopter ben-b.s. bernanke’s’ dollar debasement policies with the predictable consequences we’re seeing (including $4 gas), which among other manipulations have been great for the frauds on wall street and ‘the few’, to the detriment of virtually everyone else. SPX Pullback History: 2009-2011
[chart http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2011/5/3/saupload_spxpullbacks09_11050311.png ]
CHART OF THE DAY: Watch the US Debt Set a 60 Year Record
Wall Street falls as earnings fears threaten rally (Reuters) - Reuters - stocks fell on Tuesday as investors questioned the sustainability of the rally in light of fresh worries about earnings growth in the coming quarters.
[video] Trader: I See Stagflation
Prominent Attorney Jonathon Bristol Pleads Guilty in Kenneth Starr Money Laundering Crime
Economist says bin Laden’s death won’t boost economy KTAR | Any future attacks by al Qaeda on oil pipelines would certainly have a negative impact.
US Debt Rating Should Be ‘C’: Independent Agency CNBC.com | There have been increasing concerns about the fate of United States’ prized triple-A sovereign debt rating.
U.S. Treasury: China Has Decreased Its Holdings of U.S. Debt CNS | Mainland China has decreased its holdings of U.S. Treasury securities since last October.
Pakistani stocks, economy in jeopardy after Bin Laden death The Pakistani economy and equities may be in jeopardy after the death of Osama Bin Laden.
Rand Paul: Is There A Connection Between The Killing Of Bin Laden & Raising The Debt Ceiling? Sen. Paul and Judge Napolitano talk about the debt ceiling and the War on Terror.
US Debt Rating Should Be ‘C’: Independent Agency There have been increasing concerns about the fate of United States’ prized triple-A sovereign debt rating. While Standard and Poor’s recently downgraded its U.S. debt outlook to negative from stable, implying that a ratings cut could happen in two years, one independent ratings agency has given the U.S. sovereign rating a “C”.
As Food Stamp Recipients Hit New Record, 400 Americans Account For 10% Of Capital Gains Today SNAP released the most recent food stamp numbers. Not surprisingly, we just saw another all time high 44.2 million poverty-level Americans relying on government funding for day to day sustenance. ]
White House says bin Laden was unarmed, had no human shield (Washington Post) Officials attribute initial missteps to administration’s “great haste” in trying to share details even while operational updates were still pouring in. [ I don’t believe anything the u.s. government says … I can’t believe there are people dumb enough to believe anything the u.s. government says. Bin Laden was unarmed when SEALs stormed room (AP) AP - Osama bin Laden was unarmed when Navy SEALs burst into his room and shot him to death, the White House said Tuesday, a change in the official account that raised questions… White House struggles to get story right on raid (AP)
CIA Employs Theatrics to Heighten Drama in Osama Murder Photo Release Kurt Nimmo | Photo will be offered as final proof Navy Seals double-tapped Osama.
Forget Pakistan, US Knew Bin Laden’s Location All Along Paul Joseph Watson | US intelligence pinpointed terror leader’s precise location on numerous occasions and let him escape every time.
More Fake Photos of a Dead bin Laden and Son Circulate the Web Matt Ryan | After only a brief examination, it’s clear they are obvious fakes.
Alex Jones Special Broadcast on The Bin Laden Hoax Infowars.com
Obama Ready to Release Photo of Dead Osama Today Infowars.com
Outside White House Luke Rudkowski | WeAreChange attempts to educate hysterical public about the truth behind Bin Laden.
Fears David Petraeus will ‘militarize’ CIA Australian
We’re United Again! Butler Shaffer | Is Boobus going to buy into this story, just as he did the government’s assertion that bin Laden masterminded the 9/11 attacks?
Forget Pakistan, US Knew Bin Laden’s Location All Along The notion that the US was only aware of Bin Laden’s precise location for a matter of months before they executed their alleged raid of his compound in Pakistan is an insult to the truth…’
Gory Osama Death Photo Shows Massive Head Wound Across Both Eyes
EPIC FAIL: The US Government’s History Of Fake Bin Laden Tapes When has the US government and its corporate mouthpiece media ever produced anything authentic and credible as far as Bin Laden goes?
The Dead Bin Laden Photo Does Nothing To Address These Facts The establishment media has manufactured a strawman argument centered around the false premise that when the White House releases an image of Osama Bin Laden with a bullet through his head, which we’re told is imminent, that instantly puts to bed every “conspiracy theory” (ie truth and documented cover-up) surrounding OBL’s dubious history as the head of Al-Qaeda, a US intelligence front.
Pakistan Could Be Linked To OBL – But The CIA Defninitely Is
Bin Laden’s Neighbour: “None Of This Is True” A resident of Abbottabad says he believes it is simply not true that Bin Laden was hiding out in a compound within yards of his own home. ]
How Pakistan responds will determine its future relationship with the U.S. (Washington Post) A final breach could put at risk U.S.’s hope of military progress against Afghan Taliban insurgents. [ I mean come on! You have to give Pakistan a little credit; that is, like Iraq, Afghanitstan, etc., it’s a thanks but no thanks … look at the destruction, the raping, pillaging and plundering by the war criminal americans. What we see on our propagandist, filtered news couldn’t possibly reflect the real sentiments regarding pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt, war criminal americans. Key Afghan aid programs delayed (WP) [ Strategy? Critical time? We’ve heard that song before. And, yet another nation and innocent lives destroyed for no good reason .. Petraeus to helm more-militarized CIA (WP) [ I believe there has already been a defacto coup d’etat in america. Drudgereport: Pentagon Warns Obama Against Deeper Defense Cuts Ron Paul: After ‘CIA coup,’ agency ‘runs military’ US House Rep. Ron Paul says the CIA has has in effect carried out a “coup” against the US government, and the intelligence agency needs to be “taken out.” I also personally believe there has been a defacto coup d’etat which has manifested in various substantial, blatant, brazened frauds, ie., wall street, missing 360 tons of $100 bills in Iraq, war profiteering, etc., without fear of prosecution, as the treasury is looted. But I also believe its scope is beyond just the CIA with many complicit within the corrupted 3 branches of u.s. government (fed judges, us attorneys, illegal system, etc.),military and private big money, ie., wall street men, etc… http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm
Top Mexican Drug Lord: I Trafficked Cocaine For The U.S. Government .. CIA torture jet that crashed with four tons on cocaine on board back in 2007 has told the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Illinois in Chicago that he has been working as a U.S. government asset for years. Rendition: Where the War on Terror Meets the War on Drugs Henningsen | ... I’ve experienced the corrupt inter-relationship of the government (all 3 branches) and the illegal drug trade / obstruction of justice / bribery, particularly the courts / u.s. attorneys (ie., alito – now u.s. supreme court justice – quid pro quo for complicity / cover-up),
… “torture taxis” – used by the CIA to move captives seized in its kidnapping or “extraordinary rendition” operations .. simultaneously used for drug distribution .. A Gulfstream II jet aircraft N9875A identified by the British Government and the European Parliament as being involved in this traffic crashed in Mexico- In 2004, another torture taxi crashed in a field in Nicaragua with a ton of cocaine aboard- same planes chartered to the CIA for the rendition of suspected terrorists prisoners…’]
SPX Pullback History: 2009-2011
[chart http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2011/5/3/saupload_spxpullbacks09_11050311.png ]
CHART OF THE DAY: Watch the US Debt Set a 60 Year Record
Wall Street falls as earnings fears threaten rally (Reuters) - Reuters - stocks fell on Tuesday as investors questioned the sustainability of the rally in light of fresh worries about earnings growth in the coming quarters.
[video] Trader: I See Stagflation
Prominent Attorney Jonathon Bristol Pleads Guilty in Kenneth Starr Money Laundering Crime
Economist says bin Laden’s death won’t boost economy KTAR | Any future attacks by al Qaeda on oil pipelines would certainly have a negative impact.
US Debt Rating Should Be ‘C’: Independent Agency CNBC.com | There have been increasing concerns about the fate of United States’ prized triple-A sovereign debt rating.
U.S. Treasury: China Has Decreased Its Holdings of U.S. Debt CNS | Mainland China has decreased its holdings of U.S. Treasury securities since last October.
Pakistani stocks, economy in jeopardy after Bin Laden death The Pakistani economy and equities may be in jeopardy after the death of Osama Bin Laden.
Rand Paul: Is There A Connection Between The Killing Of Bin Laden & Raising The Debt Ceiling? Sen. Paul and Judge Napolitano talk about the debt ceiling and the War on Terror.
US Debt Rating Should Be ‘C’: Independent Agency There have been increasing concerns about the fate of United States’ prized triple-A sovereign debt rating. While Standard and Poor’s recently downgraded its U.S. debt outlook to negative from stable, implying that a ratings cut could happen in two years, one independent ratings agency has given the U.S. sovereign rating a “C”.
As Food Stamp Recipients Hit New Record, 400 Americans Account For 10% Of Capital Gains Today SNAP released the most recent food stamp numbers. Not surprisingly, we just saw another all time high 44.2 million poverty-level Americans relying on government funding for day to day sustenance.
‘World is safer,’ president says Osama bin Laden is portrayed as a reclusive figure whose final moments exposed his cowardice. (Washington Post) [ This former cia-supported ally may be legitimately described as many things; but coward is not one of them. Principled in giving up riches, comfort, he said americans are thieves; that is absolutely true, and I would add frauds, criminals, war criminals. Bullies / cowards;ie., wobama, bush, clinton, cheney, bush, et als … - I wrote: Psychology forum Re: Bystander Effect ‘… I believe the foregoing psycho-babble to be absolute, unequivocal
Rubbish/Hogwash/b.s.
The foregoing web site is, from direct experience, lacking credibility. Indeed, while walking through Military Park (a sliver of a “park” - more a pedestrian thoroughfare/cement walks) in newark, new jersey on the way to the bank during lunch hour, I heard the clearly audible screams/cries of what turned out to be an old lady on the ground with blood streaming from her mouth. I ran toward the sound of the cries, the source of which I could not see because there were so many people in and about this thoroughfare so as to block any vision of the source of the cries. When I came to the woman, on the ground, blood streaming from her mouth, I asked what happened, to which she responded she had been hit in the mouth and knocked to the ground, her purse stolen/put inside her shopping bag, and she pointed out the criminal casually now walking across the main street. Nobody stopped to help her, many having passed her by. I slammed the thug to the ground so hard that, in light of all the blood and confusion (limbic system / adrenalin flow) I thought I had been stabbed (the blood was from his elbows hitting the pavement so hard - no one helped/a crowd gathered/an undercover cop happened along). When I testified at the Grand Jury Proceeding I made sure his threat on my life was set forth in prima facie fashion so as to maximize the DA’s position with both felonies (he went to prison – pled out). (The other case I wrote about here - Having had occasion to have run down a mugger in newark, n.j. who apparent had followed a girl from the bank on her way to the bursar to pay tuition, though in pretty good shape, I was astounded by how totally exhausting such a pursuit was, how much like rubber my arms were when I traded punches with the perpetrator, and truth be told, if I had a flashlight on my belt, I have little doubt that I would have probably used it to subdue the perp. The girl was not that seriously injured, did get her pocketbook and tuition back, and the criminal went to jail. The other thing about such a pursuit that amazed me was that no one else assisted the girl or me despite being in a position to do so).
CONCLUSION
The reality, though difficult for many, including psychologists to accept is that quite simply, the vast and overwhelming majority of americans are without any courage whatsoever. They are cowards, plain and simple. All the excuses, rationalizations, etc., psycho-babble if you will, in the world will not change that fact. I could cite numerous instances involving white collar/RICO crimes involving such cowardice as well. I understand statistics, the term ad hoc, sampling, etc.. The conclusion stands!.
Let the budget battle begin After two weeks of tumultuous meetings with constituents, Congress returns to a lengthy fight over the nation’s solvency. (Washington Post) [ Or more aptly put, stated another way, the nation’s solvency is over. Now that would be cutting to the chase. After all, it’s a little late for ‘budget bustin’ heroics’. Quite simply, america’s defacto bankrupt with no end in sight, such being the insurmountable nature of same where interest alone is eating progressively into GDP beyond the subterfuge, smoke and mirrors, diversions. Gerson: How serious are we about the deficit? (Washington Post) [ Not much! I mean come on! Davis ‘… This is how we pay off our current debts and I think bondholders are simply happy to get anything out of a country that admits it owes $15Tn (1/4 of global GDP) but probably owes closer to $60Tn (entire global GDP) in the form of unfunded liabilities. The funniest thing about this (and you have to laugh) is to see Conservative pundits get on TV and talk about how we need to cut $100Bn worth of discretionary spending to "fix" this (while continuing to spend $1Tn on the military and $1Tn on tax cuts for the top 1% each year). There is no fixing this and even a Republican said you can’t fool all of the people all of the time. THIS HOUSE OF CARDS IS TEETERING FOLKS – PLEASE BE CAREFUL OUT THERE! ‘ … Suckers’ rally to keep suckers suckered: Philadelphia Fed Depresses Economists Durden ‘On Thursday April 21, 2011, 1:32 pm EDT And here comes the first indicator that Q2 GDP is about to be mass revised by everyone, courtesy of Japan, and ongoing inflation pressures: the Philadelphia Fed collapsed from a revised 43.4 (a 27 year high) to 18.5, the lowest since November 2010… This is an especially great opportunity to sell / take profits while you still can since there's much worse to come! U.S. Economy Remains on Life Support Hansen ‘This has been a whirlwind week for intangible monetary policy news which was lead by:
- The Federal Reserve press conference by Chairman Bernanke which contained almost no new economic insights; and,
- An FOMC meeting with no policy changes or insights.
My foggy long range economic view is of a moderately improving economy which is fighting growing fiscal headwinds. My takeaway from from the press conference and FOMC meeting was a fairly strong opinion by Chairman Bernanke that the economy was gaining enough traction to stand on its own without further accommodation.
A deeper look at advance 1Q2011 GDP real growth of 1.8% should quickly dispel this.
The economy is still in recession if the economic effects of the automatic stabilizers are taken into consideration. Automatic stabilizers are automatic changes in the government’s revenues and outlays that are attributable to cyclical movements in real output.
http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2011/5/1/saupload_z_weekly13.png …
]
U.S. debt Running in the red: How the U.S., on the road to surplus, detoured to massive debt (Washington Post) [ Detour, towar’, war … thieving, raping, pillaging and plundering … Davis ‘… This is how we pay off our current debts and I think bondholders are simply happy to get anything out of a country that admits it owes $15Tn (1/4 of global GDP) but probably owes closer to $60Tn (entire global GDP) in the form of unfunded liabilities. The funniest thing about this (and you have to laugh) is to see Conservative pundits get on TV and talk about how we need to cut $100Bn worth of discretionary spending to "fix" this (while continuing to spend $1Tn on the military and $1Tn on tax cuts for the top 1% each year). There is no fixing this and even a Republican said you can’t fool all of the people all of the time. THIS HOUSE OF CARDS IS TEETERING FOLKS – PLEASE BE CAREFUL OUT THERE! ‘ … Philadelphia Fed Depresses Economists Durden ‘And here comes the first indicator that Q2 GDP is about to be mass revised by everyone, courtesy of Japan, and ongoing inflation pressures: the Philadelphia Fed collapsed from a revised 43.4 (a 27 year high) to 18.5, the lowest since November 2010… This is an especially great opportunity to sell / take profits while you still can since there's much worse to come!
WallStCheatSheet:
- Market Direction : Regardless of the underlying trends, if the market is moving lower, in many instances the market dip can overwhelm any positive, stock- specific factors.
- Profit Taking : Many times investors holding a long position will have price targets or levels, if achieved, that will trigger selling whether positive elements are in place or not.
- Interest Rates : Certain valuation techniques (e.g. Discounted Cash Flow and Dividend Discount Model) integrate interest rates into the value calculation. Therefore, a climb in interest rates has the potential of lowering stock prices – even if the dynamics surrounding a particular security are excellent.
- Quality of Earnings : Sometimes producing winning results is not enough. On occasion, items such as one-time gains, aggressive revenue recognition, and lower than average tax rates assist a company in getting over a profit hurdle. Investors value quality in addition to quantity.
- Outlook : Even if current period results may be strong, on some occasions a company’s outlook regarding future prospects may be worse than expected. A dark or worsening outlook can pressure security prices.
- Politics & Taxes : These factors may prove especially important to the market this year, since this is a mid-term election year. Political and tax policy changes today may have negative impacts on future profits, thereby impacting stock prices.
- Other Exogenous Items : Natural disasters and security attacks are examples of negative shocks that could damage price values, irrespective of fundamentals.
Obama’s victory lap (Washington Post) The killing of bin Laden offered hope of instant renewal. [ Only wobama aficionado Mr. Milbank could latch onto this propagandist Orwellian dream and call it victory. Sounds like he’s shootin’ for a job in this failed presidency/administration as others, including from the Post, have done and made. 10 Reasons 2011 Is Feeling More and More Like 2008 Jensen ‘The market ended April as it began, grinding up on low volume, ignoring increasingly worsening energy prices, continued turmoil in the Middle East and slowing worldwide economic growth. To me it feels like we are in the calm before the storm. More specifically, it eerily feels like the months before the financial crisis and meltdown of 2008. The similarities are striking to me and think the market is ignoring the signs of an impending and significant pullback over the summer.
Here are ten reasons 2011 is starting to feel so much like 2008.
- Gas prices are rising rapidly and starting to impact consumer spending and sentiment. On Thursday, gas prices hit this highest level since July 31st, 2008 and have risen every month since last August, up over 30% since the “Arab Spring” commenced in Tunisia. Consumer discretionary stocks are particularly vulnerable. Avoid high priced retailers like Lululemon (LULU) and Under Armour (UA) as well as retailers focused on demographics especially vulnerable to high gas prices, such as Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF).
- Despite numerous federal programs (mostly failed), the housing market remains moribund. Prices continue to fall across most markets in the United States, albeit at a slower rate than 2008 and in the immediate aftermath of the financial crisis. New housing starts are bumping along at record lows and are contributing little to job growth.
- The Federal Reserve continues to be behind the curve. In 2008, the subprime loan problem was “contained”. In 2011, Bernanke can’t seem to see any signs of inflation despite rapidly rising energy and food prices (they are not “core” components of the Index Blind Ben places his faith in, after all) or all through the commodity complex.
- In 2008, we were fighting military actions in two Middle Eastern countries; Iraq and Afghanistan. In 2011, we are still fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan and have added ½ a war in Libya, which we have outsourced to NATO. Given the quickening pace of unrest in that volatile area of the world and our incoherent policy .. However, given the worsening events in the region, a higher floor for oil prices has been established in the short and medium term.
- World food prices increased dramatically in the 1st and 2nd quarter of 2008 creating a global crisis and causing political and economical instability and social unrest in both poor and developed nations. The price of wheat has gone up 75% in the last year and many foodstuffs have more than doubled in price over the last twelve months. In 2008, this produced food riots in many developing countries. In 2011, we have uprisings throughout the Middle East ..
- In May 2008, the market was worried about which was the next financial institution to fall after the Bear Stearns debacle. In May 2011, the market is waiting to see what European sovereign state will be the next to need a bailout after Greece, Ireland and Portugal and what the ramifications will be for the credit markets.
- In 2008, gold hit $900 an ounce in January of that year and $1000 an ounce for the first time in March 2008. In 2011, gold and silver just hit all time highs last week with gold hitting $1535 an ounce and silver in a distinct bubble at $50 an ounce.
- As in 2008, U.S. GDP growth was anemic in the first quarter. In 2008, economic growth clocked in at .6% in Q1. In 2011, GDP growth was better at 1.8% but show a significant slowdown from the previous quarter.
- As in 2008, the fiscal and monetary policies of the United States have led to a decline in the value of its currency. Despite significant problems in Europe and Japan, the dollar index just hit its lowest point since July 2008. This is a major contributor to the increasing inflation ..
- In 2008, China, the world’s third largest economy, instituted a series of measures to curb growth in order to address increasing inflation and the beginnings of a property bubble. The Shanghai Index fell over 10% in the first half of 2008. In 2011, ..the Shanghai Index has been flat despite the S&P being up approximately 15% over the same time period
]
Osama bin Laden was discovered ‘hiding in plain sight’ in Pakistan (Washington Post) U.S. officials begin to provide details on the chronology of events. [
Intel Chief: They Killed “Make Believe Obama” Kurt Nimmo | Hamid Gul says event was a “make believe drama” designed to be used for Obama’s upcoming re-election campaign.
Police State Kicks Into Overdrive On Dubious News of Osama Takedown Kurt Nimmo | Increased police presence in New York, Washington, Los Angeles, Seattle, and elsewhere around the country.
Red Alert: Government Had Osama bin Laden Frozen for Years
Kurt Nimmo and Alex Jones | Obama makes a suspiciously timed speech, claims Osama killed in Pakistan. Videos [ As set forth infra, I personally believe Osama’s been dead for quite some time. Indeed, for one on dialysis, he otherwise would have been nothing less than a modern day miracle in terms of longevity / mortality rates for those so afflicted, particularly under the ‘stressful’ circumstances involving evading capture, betrayal for money, etc.. His ‘surfacing’ for a ‘talk’ wouldn’t even pass muster in the most rudimentary requirements for ‘proof of life’. The release at this time of the ‘announcement’ is, rather than a victory lap so to speak, but rather a sign of weakness and desperation on the part of america whose global and domestic economic, financial, and geopolitical position is substantially diminished and declining rapidly and whose military industrial complex welfare plan along with the Orwellian diversion of the masses could at most yield a pyrrhic victory which also would require for consummation a wrap-up of this nation-bankrupting contrived war scenario, which is not likely. Moreover, the same comes at a time of systemic failure for pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt america While the ‘announcement’ plays well for the nonce, to the dumb, uninformed back home, the same will galvanize resistance in the name of their now martyr, Osama Bin Laden. In sum, other than somewhat questionable propaganda value, the announcement will have no measurable effect on america’s continuing mideast / global debacle. In other words, defacto bankrupt america has used up a ‘bullet’, albeit a blank at that! ]
In February, 2004, Iranian state radio claimed Osama bin Laden had been captured in Pakistan’s border region with Afghanistan “a long time ago.” Pentagon and Pakistani officials denied the report. “Osama bin Laden has been arrested a long time ago, but Bush is intending to use it for propaganda maneuvering in the presidential election,” the radio report said…’ ]
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