Tuesday, May 3, 2011

May 2, 2011 Posts

Business / Economic / Financial

[ This link to a somewhat more cumulative blog posts page will precede current days news since most all topics remain current in terms of impact and longer-term effect and can be searched by topical index term more easily. The same is provided since the blog site http://alpeiablog.blogspot.com has just been censored as to size by google which is typical for google as nsa / cia / gov’t shill as more are becoming aware of. The same is true for microsoft, another co. that’s seen their best days and relies on the government to maintain their monopoly. Up to now the better page http://www.scribd.com/alpeia is provided for ease of formatting and clarity thereby while the Washington Post page is the real deal but without formatting http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp- srv/community/mypost/index.html?plckPersonaPage=PersonaComments&plckUserId=alpeia&newspaperUserId=alpeia (Only up to 3-11-11-you must be logged in - (Washington Post) [ Comments COMMENTS ARE CLOSED WHILE WE UPGRADE OUR SYSTEMS ] the comments are no longer archived on their site ) . The following is the cumulative archive of blog posts / topics for 2010 as the new year starts anew (and archived by quarter): http://albertpeia.com/December312010postsarchive.htm or PDF formatted version
http://albertpeia.com/December312010postsarchive.pdf ]

‘World is safer,’ president says Osama bin Laden is portrayed as a reclusive figure whose final moments exposed his cowardice. (Washington Post) [ This former cia-supported ally may be legitimately described as many things; but coward is not one of them. Principled in giving up riches, comfort, he said americans are thieves; that is absolutely true, and I would add frauds, criminals, war criminals. Bullies / cowards;ie., wobama, bush, clinton, cheney, bush, et als … - I wrote: Psychology forum Re: Bystander Effect ‘… I believe the foregoing psycho-babble to be absolute, unequivocal

Rubbish/Hogwash/b.s.

The foregoing web site is, from direct experience, lacking credibility. Indeed, while walking through Military Park (a sliver of a “park” - more a pedestrian thoroughfare/cement walks) in newark, new jersey on the way to the bank during lunch hour, I heard the clearly audible screams/cries of what turned out to be an old lady on the ground with blood streaming from her mouth. I ran toward the sound of the cries, the source of which I could not see because there were so many people in and about this thoroughfare so as to block any vision of the source of the cries. When I came to the woman, on the ground, blood streaming from her mouth, I asked what happened, to which she responded she had been hit in the mouth and knocked to the ground, her purse stolen/put inside her shopping bag, and she pointed out the criminal casually now walking across the main street. Nobody stopped to help her, many having passed her by. I slammed the thug to the ground so hard that, in light of all the blood and confusion (limbic system / adrenalin flow) I thought I had been stabbed (the blood was from his elbows hitting the pavement so hard - no one helped/a crowd gathered/an undercover cop happened along). When I testified at the Grand Jury Proceeding I made sure his threat on my life was set forth in prima facie fashion so as to maximize the DA’s position with both felonies (he went to prison – pled out). (The other case I wrote about here - Having had occasion to have run down a mugger in newark, n.j. who apparent had followed a girl from the bank on her way to the bursar to pay tuition, though in pretty good shape, I was astounded by how totally exhausting such a pursuit was, how much like rubber my arms were when I traded punches with the perpetrator, and truth be told, if I had a flashlight on my belt, I have little doubt that I would have probably used it to subdue the perp. The girl was not that seriously injured, did get her pocketbook and tuition back, and the criminal went to jail. The other thing about such a pursuit that amazed me was that no one else assisted the girl or me despite being in a position to do so).

CONCLUSION

The reality, though difficult for many, including psychologists to accept is that quite simply, the vast and overwhelming majority of americans are without any courage whatsoever. They are cowards, plain and simple. All the excuses, rationalizations, etc., psycho-babble if you will, in the world will not change that fact. I could cite numerous instances involving white collar/RICO crimes involving such cowardice as well. I understand statistics, the term ad hoc, sampling, etc.. The conclusion stands!.

Let the budget battle begin After two weeks of tumultuous meetings with constituents, Congress returns to a lengthy fight over the nation’s solvency. (Washington Post) [ Or more aptly put, stated another way, the nation’s solvency is over. Now that would be cutting to the chase. After all, it’s a little late for ‘budget bustin’ heroics’. Quite simply, america’s defacto bankrupt with no end in sight, such being the insurmountable nature of same where interest alone is eating progressively into GDP beyond the subterfuge, smoke and mirrors, diversions. Gerson: How serious are we about the deficit? (Washington Post) [ Not much! I mean come on! Davis ‘… This is how we pay off our current debts and I think bondholders are simply happy to get anything out of a country that admits it owes $15Tn (1/4 of global GDP) but probably owes closer to $60Tn (entire global GDP) in the form of unfunded liabilities. The funniest thing about this (and you have to laugh) is to see Conservative pundits get on TV and talk about how we need to cut $100Bn worth of discretionary spending to "fix" this (while continuing to spend $1Tn on the military and $1Tn on tax cuts for the top 1% each year). There is no fixing this and even a Republican said you can’t fool all of the people all of the time. THIS HOUSE OF CARDS IS TEETERING FOLKS – PLEASE BE CAREFUL OUT THERE! ‘ Suckers’ rally to keep suckers suckered: Philadelphia Fed Depresses Economists Durden ‘On Thursday April 21, 2011, 1:32 pm EDT And here comes the first indicator that Q2 GDP is about to be mass revised by everyone, courtesy of Japan, and ongoing inflation pressures: the Philadelphia Fed collapsed from a revised 43.4 (a 27 year high) to 18.5, the lowest since November 2010… This is an especially great opportunity to sell / take profits while you still can since there's much worse to come! U.S. Economy Remains on Life Support Hansen ‘This has been a whirlwind week for intangible monetary policy news which was lead by:

  • The Federal Reserve press conference by Chairman Bernanke which contained almost no new economic insights; and,
  • An FOMC meeting with no policy changes or insights.

My foggy long range economic view is of a moderately improving economy which is fighting growing fiscal headwinds. My takeaway from from the press conference and FOMC meeting was a fairly strong opinion by Chairman Bernanke that the economy was gaining enough traction to stand on its own without further accommodation.

A deeper look at advance 1Q2011 GDP real growth of 1.8% should quickly dispel this.

The economy is still in recession if the economic effects of the automatic stabilizers are taken into consideration. Automatic stabilizers are automatic changes in the government’s revenues and outlays that are attributable to cyclical movements in real output.

http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2011/5/1/saupload_z_weekly13.png

]


U.S. debt Running in the red: How the U.S., on the road to surplus, detoured to massive debt (Washington Post) [ Detour, towar’, war … thieving, raping, pillaging and plundering … Davis ‘… This is how we pay off our current debts and I think bondholders are simply happy to get anything out of a country that admits it owes $15Tn (1/4 of global GDP) but probably owes closer to $60Tn (entire global GDP) in the form of unfunded liabilities. The funniest thing about this (and you have to laugh) is to see Conservative pundits get on TV and talk about how we need to cut $100Bn worth of discretionary spending to "fix" this (while continuing to spend $1Tn on the military and $1Tn on tax cuts for the top 1% each year). There is no fixing this and even a Republican said you can’t fool all of the people all of the time. THIS HOUSE OF CARDS IS TEETERING FOLKS – PLEASE BE CAREFUL OUT THERE! ‘ Philadelphia Fed Depresses Economists Durden ‘And here comes the first indicator that Q2 GDP is about to be mass revised by everyone, courtesy of Japan, and ongoing inflation pressures: the Philadelphia Fed collapsed from a revised 43.4 (a 27 year high) to 18.5, the lowest since November 2010… This is an especially great opportunity to sell / take profits while you still can since there's much worse to come!
WallStCheatSheet:

  • Market Direction : Regardless of the underlying trends, if the market is moving lower, in many instances the market dip can overwhelm any positive, stock- specific factors.
  • Profit Taking : Many times investors holding a long position will have price targets or levels, if achieved, that will trigger selling whether positive elements are in place or not.
  • Interest Rates : Certain valuation techniques (e.g. Discounted Cash Flow and Dividend Discount Model) integrate interest rates into the value calculation. Therefore, a climb in interest rates has the potential of lowering stock prices – even if the dynamics surrounding a particular security are excellent.
  • Quality of Earnings : Sometimes producing winning results is not enough. On occasion, items such as one-time gains, aggressive revenue recognition, and lower than average tax rates assist a company in getting over a profit hurdle. Investors value quality in addition to quantity.
  • Outlook : Even if current period results may be strong, on some occasions a company’s outlook regarding future prospects may be worse than expected. A dark or worsening outlook can pressure security prices.
  • Politics & Taxes : These factors may prove especially important to the market this year, since this is a mid-term election year. Political and tax policy changes today may have negative impacts on future profits, thereby impacting stock prices.
  • Other Exogenous Items : Natural disasters and security attacks are examples of negative shocks that could damage price values, irrespective of fundamentals.


Obama’s victory lap (Washington Post) The killing of bin Laden offered hope of instant renewal. [ Only wobama aficionado Mr. Milbank could latch onto this propagandist Orwellian dream and call it victory. Sounds like he’s shootin’ for a job in this failed presidency/administration as others, including from the Post, have done and made. 10 Reasons 2011 Is Feeling More and More Like 2008 Jensen ‘The market ended April as it began, grinding up on low volume, ignoring increasingly worsening energy prices, continued turmoil in the Middle East and slowing worldwide economic growth. To me it feels like we are in the calm before the storm. More specifically, it eerily feels like the months before the financial crisis and meltdown of 2008. The similarities are striking to me and think the market is ignoring the signs of an impending and significant pullback over the summer.

Here are ten reasons 2011 is starting to feel so much like 2008.

  1. Gas prices are rising rapidly and starting to impact consumer spending and sentiment. On Thursday, gas prices hit this highest level since July 31st, 2008 and have risen every month since last August, up over 30% since the “Arab Spring” commenced in Tunisia. Consumer discretionary stocks are particularly vulnerable. Avoid high priced retailers like Lululemon (LULU) and Under Armour (UA) as well as retailers focused on demographics especially vulnerable to high gas prices, such as Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF).
  2. Despite numerous federal programs (mostly failed), the housing market remains moribund. Prices continue to fall across most markets in the United States, albeit at a slower rate than 2008 and in the immediate aftermath of the financial crisis. New housing starts are bumping along at record lows and are contributing little to job growth.
  3. The Federal Reserve continues to be behind the curve. In 2008, the subprime loan problem was “contained”. In 2011, Bernanke can’t seem to see any signs of inflation despite rapidly rising energy and food prices (they are not “core” components of the Index Blind Ben places his faith in, after all) or all through the commodity complex.
  4. In 2008, we were fighting military actions in two Middle Eastern countries; Iraq and Afghanistan. In 2011, we are still fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan and have added ½ a war in Libya, which we have outsourced to NATO. Given the quickening pace of unrest in that volatile area of the world and our incoherent policy .. However, given the worsening events in the region, a higher floor for oil prices has been established in the short and medium term.
  5. World food prices increased dramatically in the 1st and 2nd quarter of 2008 creating a global crisis and causing political and economical instability and social unrest in both poor and developed nations. The price of wheat has gone up 75% in the last year and many foodstuffs have more than doubled in price over the last twelve months. In 2008, this produced food riots in many developing countries. In 2011, we have uprisings throughout the Middle East ..
  6. In May 2008, the market was worried about which was the next financial institution to fall after the Bear Stearns debacle. In May 2011, the market is waiting to see what European sovereign state will be the next to need a bailout after Greece, Ireland and Portugal and what the ramifications will be for the credit markets.
  7. In 2008, gold hit $900 an ounce in January of that year and $1000 an ounce for the first time in March 2008. In 2011, gold and silver just hit all time highs last week with gold hitting $1535 an ounce and silver in a distinct bubble at $50 an ounce.
  8. As in 2008, U.S. GDP growth was anemic in the first quarter. In 2008, economic growth clocked in at .6% in Q1. In 2011, GDP growth was better at 1.8% but show a significant slowdown from the previous quarter.
  9. As in 2008, the fiscal and monetary policies of the United States have led to a decline in the value of its currency. Despite significant problems in Europe and Japan, the dollar index just hit its lowest point since July 2008. This is a major contributor to the increasing inflation ..
  10. In 2008, China, the world’s third largest economy, instituted a series of measures to curb growth in order to address increasing inflation and the beginnings of a property bubble. The Shanghai Index fell over 10% in the first half of 2008. In 2011, ..the Shanghai Index has been flat despite the S&P being up approximately 15% over the same time period

]

Osama bin Laden was discovered ‘hiding in plain sight’ in Pakistan (Washington Post) U.S. officials begin to provide details on the chronology of events. [

Intel Chief: They Killed “Make Believe Obama” Kurt Nimmo | Hamid Gul says event was a “make believe drama” designed to be used for Obama’s upcoming re-election campaign.

Police State Kicks Into Overdrive On Dubious News of Osama Takedown Kurt Nimmo | Increased police presence in New York, Washington, Los Angeles, Seattle, and elsewhere around the country.

Red Alert: Government Had Osama bin Laden Frozen for Years

Kurt Nimmo and Alex Jones | Obama makes a suspiciously timed speech, claims Osama killed in Pakistan. Videos [ As set forth infra, I personally believe Osama’s been dead for quite some time. Indeed, for one on dialysis, he otherwise would have been nothing less than a modern day miracle in terms of longevity / mortality rates for those so afflicted, particularly under the ‘stressful’ circumstances involving evading capture, betrayal for money, etc.. His ‘surfacing’ for a ‘talk’ wouldn’t even pass muster in the most rudimentary requirements for ‘proof of life’. The release at this time of the ‘announcement’ is, rather than a victory lap so to speak, but rather a sign of weakness and desperation on the part of america whose global and domestic economic, financial, and geopolitical position is substantially diminished and declining rapidly and whose military industrial complex welfare plan along with the Orwellian diversion of the masses could at most yield a pyrrhic victory which also would require for consummation a wrap-up of this nation-bankrupting contrived war scenario, which is not likely. Moreover, the same comes at a time of systemic failure for pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt america While the ‘announcement’ plays well for the nonce, to the dumb, uninformed back home, the same will galvanize resistance in the name of their now martyr, Osama Bin Laden. In sum, other than somewhat questionable propaganda value, the announcement will have no measurable effect on america’s continuing mideast / global debacle. In other words, defacto bankrupt america has used up a ‘bullet’, albeit a blank at that! ]

In February, 2004, Iranian state radio claimed Osama bin Laden had been captured in Pakistan’s border region with Afghanistan “a long time ago.” Pentagon and Pakistani officials denied the report. “Osama bin Laden has been arrested a long time ago, but Bush is intending to use it for propaganda maneuvering in the presidential election,” the radio report said…’

]

U.S. Economy Remains on Life Support Hansen ‘This has been a whirlwind week for intangible monetary policy news which was lead by:

  • The Federal Reserve press conference by Chairman Bernanke which contained almost no new economic insights; and,
  • An FOMC meeting with no policy changes or insights.

My foggy long range economic view is of a moderately improving economy which is fighting growing fiscal headwinds. My takeaway from from the press conference and FOMC meeting was a fairly strong opinion by Chairman Bernanke that the economy was gaining enough traction to stand on its own without further accommodation.

A deeper look at advance 1Q2011 GDP real growth of 1.8% should quickly dispel this.

The economy is still in recession if the economic effects of the automatic stabilizers are taken into consideration. Automatic stabilizers are automatic changes in the government’s revenues and outlays that are attributable to cyclical movements in real output.

http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2011/5/1/saupload_z_weekly13.png

A caveat when interpreting the above chart is that no study has determined what portion of automatic stabilizers actually get into GDP – GDP measures only 1/3 of the economic money flows. But understanding the size of automatic stabilizers in comparison to GDP are indicative of current economic duress.

A better measure of economic health is comparing the fiscal boost being given to the economy due to the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (aka “the stimulus”).

http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2011/5/1/saupload_z_weekly21.png

The orange range in the above graph is the estimated range of effects on GDP of the stimulus. My take from this graph is that it is likely the economy was negative in 1Q2011 without stimulus.

Some of the automatic stabilizers were funded within the stimulus – and looking at GDP is a rear view mirror of the economy. What is important is where the economy is headed.

And this leads me to the final nail in the coffin – government spending. In Chairman Bernanke’s press conference, he stated that there were no government deficit reduction bills or programs which would derail his positive (but downwardly revised) economic projections.

Before any of these deficit reductions begin effecting the economy, the USA has the government putting a 1% headwind on GDP in 1Q2011 – the largest government spending headwind since the end of World War II.

The economy is much weaker than picture Chairman Bernanke painted, and it is likely he crossed his fingers when saying further extraordinary monetary policy accommodation would not be necessary.

Economic News This Week:

Econintersect issued its economic forecast for April 2011 indicating a peaking of this current economic sub-cycle. In simple words, the same moderate recovery seen in March will continue in April.

This week the Weekly Leading Index (WLI) from ECRI declined slightly from 7.7% to 7.5%. This level implies the business conditions six months from now will be approximately the same or slightly improved compared to today.

http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2011/5/1/saupload_z_weekly_indexes4.png

Initial unemployment claims increased moderately in this week’s release. The data for the last two months as been quite noisy, and it remains important to follow the four week moving average for analysis of unemployment to smooth out the reporting idiosyncrasies. Although the trend over the last six months has been down, we are in a short term uptrend – please refer to Initial Unemployment Claims Rise – A Harbinger of Poor April Jobs Outlook.

http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2011/5/1/saupload_z_unemployment3.png

The data released this week were consistent with a moderately improving economy. Housing data was as expected – not good – but this economic cycle is operating with poor housing dynamics which continues to degrade slightly. There are some indications of light at the end of the housing tunnel.

Weekly Economic Release Scorecard:

Item

Headline

Analysis

1Q2011 GDP

Rick Davis suggests the weak numbers are a perfect excuse for more monetary intervention

March Personal Income & PCE

Up

Consumption increase is 66% price increases. Disposable income 80% nullified by inflation

1Q2011 GDP

Up 1.8%

Government spending contraction the news in this low number

March CFNAI

Up

This super economic coincident index is now showing economy growing at trend

March Pending Home Sales

Up

Not up – Pending home sales index has been down YoY for the last 8 of 9 months

March Durable Goods

Up

Sharp improvement

Home Mortgage Defaults

Likely strategic mortgage defaults will be a growing problem

April Conference Board Consumer Confidence

Up

Comparing consumer confidence “recovery” and trends over the last 5 recessions

February Case-Shiller home prices

Down

Compares all leading home price indexes.

Income Inequalities

Growing

Showing growing income disparity in the USA

March New Home Sales

Up

Not up – but there is light in the tunnel

China Inflation

Menzie Chinn questions whether Chinese inflation is endangering the USA economy

Deficit Reduction

Elliott Morss looks at taxing options to lower the deficit

Frank-Dodd

Yves Smith pokes holes in FDIC belief they could have prevented the destruction caused by Lehman’s collapse

Corporate Forward Earnings

Jeff Miller points out most investors are not using good forward earning information

Australian All Ordinaries

Paul Hanly overviews the Oz market from a historical perspective

Commodities

Erik McCurdy argues a correction is coming

Are things out of control?

John Lounsbury shares a video on the progression of the information age

Arizona Senate Bill 1259

Martin Andelman questions whether the banking lobby was involved in the disappearance

Economic End Games

Rick Davis examines the “art” of economic solutions – and who profits

Bankruptcy This Week: Peregrine

Failed Banks This Week:

http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2011/5/1/saupload_z_failed_banks3.png

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

More articles by Steven Hansen »

GDP: These Awesome Charts Put the GDP Revision in Perspective

7 Significant Variables That Can Move Stock Prices Lower WallStCheatSheet [ It’s truly a bad investing scenario when stocks / stock market is likened to gambling / sports betting – and I’d say the latter is less prone to fraud / manipulation as is ubiquitously extant on fraudulent wall street. ] ‘ There are many similarities between investing in stocks and handicapping in sports betting. For example, investors (bettors) have opposing views on whether a particular stock will go up or down (win or lose), and determine if the valuation (point spread) is reflective of the proper equilibrium (supply & demand). And just like the stock market, virtually anybody off the street can place a sports bet – assuming one is of legal age and in a legal betting jurisdiction.

Right now investors are poring over data as part of the critical, quarterly earnings ritual. Thus far, roughly 20% of the companies in S&P 500 index (NYSE:SPY) have reported their results and 78% of those companies have beaten Wall Street expectations. Unfortunately for the bulls, this trend has not been strong enough to push market prices higher in 2010. Companies that have reported include: Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), Alcoa (NYSE:AA), American Express (NYSE:AXP), Boeing (NYSE:BA), Bank of American (NYSE:BAC), Citigroup (NYSE:C), Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT), Chevron (NYSE:CVX), duPont (NYSE:DD), General Electric (NYSE:GE), Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS), IBM (NYSE:IBM), Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ), JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM), Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO), Ford (NYSE:F), McDonald’s (NYSE:MCD), 3M (NYSE:MMM), Merck (NYSE:MRK), Proctor & Gamble (NYSE:PG), Sprint (NYSE:S), Traveler’s (NYSE:TRV), United Technologies (NYSE:UTX), eBay (NASDAQ:EBAY), Verizon (NYSE:VZ) and ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM).

So how and why can market prices go down on good news? There are many reasons that short-term price trends can diverge from short-run fundamentals. One major reason for the price-fundamental gap is the following factor: expectations. Just last week, the market had climbed over +70% in a ten month period, before issues surrounding the Massachusetts Senatorial election, President Obama’s banking reform proposals, and Federal Reserve Bank Chairman Ben Bernanke’s re-appointment surfaced. With such a large run-up in the equity markets come loftier expectations for both the economy and individual companies.

So when corporate earnings unveiled from companies like Google (NASDAQ:GOOG), J.P. Morgan (NYSE:JPM), and Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) outperform relative to forecasts, one explanation for an interim price correction is due to a significant group of investors not being surprised by the robust profit reports. In sports betting lingo, the sports team may have won the game this week, but they did not win by enough points (“cover the spread”).

Some other reasons stock prices move lower on good news:

  • Market Direction : Regardless of the underlying trends, if the market is moving lower, in many instances the market dip can overwhelm any positive, stock- specific factors.
  • Profit Taking : Many times investors holding a long position will have price targets or levels, if achieved, that will trigger selling whether positive elements are in place or not.
  • Interest Rates : Certain valuation techniques (e.g. Discounted Cash Flow and Dividend Discount Model) integrate interest rates into the value calculation. Therefore, a climb in interest rates has the potential of lowering stock prices – even if the dynamics surrounding a particular security are excellent.
  • Quality of Earnings : Sometimes producing winning results is not enough. On occasion, items such as one-time gains, aggressive revenue recognition, and lower than average tax rates assist a company in getting over a profit hurdle. Investors value quality in addition to quantity.
  • Outlook : Even if current period results may be strong, on some occasions a company’s outlook regarding future prospects may be worse than expected. A dark or worsening outlook can pressure security prices.
  • Politics & Taxes : These factors may prove especially important to the market this year, since this is a mid-term election year. Political and tax policy changes today may have negative impacts on future profits, thereby impacting stock prices.
  • Other Exogenous Items : Natural disasters and security attacks are examples of negative shocks that could damage price values, irrespective of fundamentals.

Certainly these previously mentioned issues do not cover the full gamut of explanations for temporary price-fundamental gaps. Moreover, many of these factors could be used in reverse to explain market price increases in the face of weaker than anticipated results.

For those individuals traveling to Las Vegas to place a wager on the NFL Super Bowl, betting on the hot team may not be enough. If expectations are not met and the hot team wins by less than the point spread, don’t be surprised to see a decline in the value of the bet.

Wade W. Slome is a CFA and CFP® at Sidoxia Capital Management.

Disclosure: Sidoxia Capital Management (SCM) and some of its clients own GOOG and certain exchange traded funds, but do not own JPM or INTC or any other security referenced in this article…’

10 Reasons 2011 Is Feeling More and More Like 2008 Jensen ‘The market ended April as it began, grinding up on low volume, ignoring increasingly worsening energy prices, continued turmoil in the Middle East and slowing worldwide economic growth. To me it feels like we are in the calm before the storm. More specifically, it eerily feels like the months before the financial crisis and meltdown of 2008. The similarities are striking to me and think the market is ignoring the signs of an impending and significant pullback over the summer.

Here are ten reasons 2011 is starting to feel so much like 2008.

  1. Gas prices are rising rapidly and starting to impact consumer spending and sentiment. On Thursday, gas prices hit this highest level since July 31st, 2008 and have risen every month since last August, up over 30% since the “Arab Spring” commenced in Tunisia. Consumer discretionary stocks are particularly vulnerable. Avoid high priced retailers like Lululemon (LULU) and Under Armour (UA) as well as retailers focused on demographics especially vulnerable to high gas prices, such as Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF).
  2. Despite numerous federal programs (mostly failed), the housing market remains moribund. Prices continue to fall across most markets in the United States, albeit at a slower rate than 2008 and in the immediate aftermath of the financial crisis. New housing starts are bumping along at record lows and are contributing little to job growth.
  3. The Federal Reserve continues to be behind the curve. In 2008, the subprime loan problem was “contained”. In 2011, Bernanke can’t seem to see any signs of inflation despite rapidly rising energy and food prices (they are not “core” components of the Index Blind Ben places his faith in, after all) or all through the commodity complex.
  4. In 2008, we were fighting military actions in two Middle Eastern countries; Iraq and Afghanistan. In 2011, we are still fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan and have added ½ a war in Libya, which we have outsourced to NATO. Given the quickening pace of unrest in that volatile area of the world and our incoherent policy so far in dealing with it, hopefully U.S. obligations there do not increase by the end of 2011. However, given the worsening events in the region, a higher floor for oil prices has been established in the short and medium term.
  5. World food prices increased dramatically in the 1st and 2nd quarter of 2008 creating a global crisis and causing political and economical instability and social unrest in both poor and developed nations. The price of wheat has gone up 75% in the last year and many foodstuffs have more than doubled in price over the last twelve months. In 2008, this produced food riots in many developing countries. In 2011, we have uprisings throughout the Middle East (not suggesting this is the primary cause, but a contributor).
  6. In May 2008, the market was worried about which was the next financial institution to fall after the Bear Stearns debacle. In May 2011, the market is waiting to see what European sovereign state will be the next to need a bailout after Greece, Ireland and Portugal and what the ramifications will be for the credit markets.
  7. In 2008, gold hit $900 an ounce in January of that year and $1000 an ounce for the first time in March 2008. In 2011, gold and silver just hit all time highs last week with gold hitting $1535 an ounce and silver in a distinct bubble at $50 an ounce.
  8. As in 2008, U.S. GDP growth was anemic in the first quarter. In 2008, economic growth clocked in at .6% in Q1. In 2011, GDP growth was better at 1.8% but show a significant slowdown from the previous quarter.
  9. As in 2008, the fiscal and monetary policies of the United States have led to a decline in the value of its currency. Despite significant problems in Europe and Japan, the dollar index just hit its lowest point since July 2008. This is a major contributor to the increasing inflation that is appearing in various points in the pipeline, especially food and energy.
  10. In 2008, China, the world’s third largest economy, instituted a series of measures to curb growth in order to address increasing inflation and the beginnings of a property bubble. The Shanghai Index fell over 10% in the first half of 2008. In 2011, China now the world’s second largest economy, is again instituting a series of measures to curb inflation, including several interest rate hikes. Over the last seven months, the Shanghai Index has been flat despite the S&P being up approximately 15% over the same time period

History does not always repeat itself, but it does rhyme, as the saying goes. For the reasons listed above, I am very cautious here. I believe we are due we are in for a significant correction over the summer of 15%-25%. I am keeping a good portion of my portfolio in cash, awaiting the pullback that I feel is close. I hope to use these funds to pick up good companies with solid growth prospects - like Apple (AAPL) and Google (GOOG) - at some point over the summer at lower prices. The funds I do have in the market are concentrated in large cap blue chip stocks with reasonable valuations, growing revenues and solid dividend yields. Companies like Microsoft (MSFT), Intel (INTC), Novartis (NVS), Abbott Labs (ABT), and Telefonica (TEF) are some of these types of stocks that I think fit the bill. Be careful out there.’

U.S. Treasury: China Has Decreased Its Holdings of U.S. Debt CNSNews.com | Mainland China has decreased its holdings of U.S. Treasury securities since last October.

China to dump two-thirds of U.S. debt reserves? Amid near-daily reports that the U.S. dollar continues to slide in value comes a report that China, the largest holder of U.S. debt, is considering dumping two-thirds of its dollar reserves, which currently stand at about $3.04 trillion.

Bursting Bubbles. Waning Currency Systems and Insolvent Financial Institutions We keep searching Congress for leadership and all we see and hear is compromises and moneyed footsteps leading back to their controllers on Wall Street and in banking. We find few willing to stand up to the military industrial complex or the moneyed powers that control our country. Spending restraint is very difficult to find.

Excessive Leverage Helped Cause the Great Depression and the Current Crisis … And Government Responds by Encouraging MORE Leverage It is well known that excessive leverage was one of the primary causes of the Great Depression. Specifically, many people bought stocks on margin, and when stock prices dropped, they were wiped out and their lenders got hit hard.

36 Statistics Which Prove That The American Dream Is Turning Into An Absolute Nightmare For The Middle Class The U.S. middle class is being shredded, ripped apart and systematically wiped out. If you doubt this, just check out the statistics below.

The American Dream
May 2, 2011

The U.S. middle class is being shredded, ripped apart and systematically wiped out. If you doubt this, just check out the statistics below. The American Dream is being transformed into an absolute nightmare. Once upon a time, the rest of the world knew that most Americans were able to live a middle class lifestyle. Most American families had nice homes, most American families had a car or two, most American families had nice clothes, most American families had an overabundance of food and most American families could even look forward to sending their children to college if that is what the kids wanted to do. There was an implicit promise that this was the way that it was always going to be. Most of us grew up believing that if we worked really hard in school and that if we stayed out of trouble and that if we did everything that “the system” told us to do that there would be a place for us in the middle class too. Well, it turns out that “the system” is breaking down. There aren’t enough good jobs for all of us anymore. In fact, there aren’t very many crappy jobs either. Millions are out of work, millions have lost their homes and nearly all of the long-term economic trends just keep getting worse and worse. So is there any hope for the U.S. middle class?

No, there is not.

Unless fundamental changes are made economically, financially and politically, the long-term trends that are destroying the U.S. middle class will continue to do so.

The number of good jobs has been declining for a long time. The good jobs that have been lost are being replaced by a smaller number of low paying “service jobs”.

Meanwhile, the cost of everything is going up. It is getting really hard for American families to be able to afford to put food on the table and to put gas in the tank. Health care costs are absolutely outrageous and college tuition is now out of reach for millions of American families.

Every single month more American families fall out of the middle class. Today there are 18 million more Americans on food stamps than there were just four years ago. More than one out of every five U.S. children is living in poverty. Things are getting really, really bad out there.

The following are 36 statistics which prove that the American Dream is turning into an absolute nightmare for the middle class….

#1 The competition for decent jobs in America has gotten absolutely insane. There have been reports of people actually getting down on their knees and begging for jobs. Many Americans are starting to wonder if they will ever get a decent job again. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the average duration of unemployment in the United States is now an all-time record 39 weeks

#2 According to the Wall Street Journal, there are 5.5 million Americans that are unemployed and yet are not receiving unemployment benefits.

#3 The number of “low income jobs” in the U.S. has risen steadily over the past 30 years and they now account for 41 percent of all jobs in the United States.

#4 Only 66.8% of American men had a job last year. That was the lowest level that has ever been recorded in all of U.S. history.

#5 Once upon a time, anyone could get hired at McDonald’s. But today McDonald’s turns away a higher percentage of applicants than Harvard does. Approximately 7 percent of all those that apply to get into Harvard are accepted. At a recent “National Hiring Day” held by McDonald’s only about 6.2 percent of the one million Americans that applied for a job were hired.

#6 There are now about 7.25 million fewer jobs in America than when the recession began back in 2007.

#7 The United States has lost an average of about 50,000 manufacturing jobsper month since China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001.

#8 A New York post analysis has found that the rate of inflation in New York City has been about 14 percent over the past year.

#9 The average price of a gallon of gasoline in the United States is now up to$3.91 a gallon.

#10 Over the past 12 months the average price of gasoline in the United States has gone up by about 30%.

#11 Spending on energy now accounts for more than 6 percent of all consumer spending. Every time this has happened since 1970 we have also had a recession that followed.

#12 The average American driver will spend somewhere around $750 more for gasoline in 2011. Unfortunately, it seems likely that the price of oil is going to go up even higher. Already the price of oil is closing in on the all-time record….

#13 In the United States, over 20 percent of all children are living in poverty. In the UK and in France that figure is well under 10 percent.

#14 According to the U.S. Census, the number of children living in poverty has gone up by about 2 million in just the past 2 years.

#15 The wealthiest 1% of all Americans now own more than a third of all the wealth in the United States.

#16 The poorest 50% collectively own just 2.5% of all the wealth in the United States.

#17 The wealthiest 1% of all Americans own over 50% of all the stocks and bonds.

#18 According to a new report from the AFL-CIO, the average CEO made 343 times more money than the average American did last year.

#19 In 1980, government transfer payments accounted for just 11.7% of all income. Today, government transfer payments account for 18.4% of all income.

#20 U.S. households are now receiving more income from the U.S. governmentthan they are paying to the government in taxes.

#21 59 percent of all Americans now receive money from the federal government in one form or another.

#22 The average cost of tuition, room and board at America’s public universities is now $16,000 a year. For America’s private universities, that figure is $37,000 a year.

#23 The cost of college tuition in the United States has gone up by over 900 percent since 1978.

#24 Approximately two-thirds of all college students graduate with student loan debt.

#25 17 million college graduates are doing jobs that do not even require a college degree.

#26 According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, health care costs accounted for just 9.5% of all personal consumption back in 1980. Today they account for approximately 16.3%.

#27 One study found that approximately 41 percent of working age Americans either have medical bill problems or are currently paying off medical debt.

#28 Back in 1965, only one out of every 50 Americans was on Medicaid. Today,one out of every 6 Americans is on Medicaid.

#29 Total credit card debt in the United States is now more than 8 times larger than it was just 30 years ago.

#30 During the first three months of this year, less new homes were sold in the U.S. than in any three month period ever recorded.

#31 Now home sales in the United States are now down 80% from the peak in July 2005.

#32 U.S. home prices have now declined 32% from the peak of the housing bubble.

#33 For most middle class families, the family home is the number one financial asset. Unfortunately, U.S. home values have declined an astounding 6.3 trillion dollars since the housing crisis first began.

#34 According to a recent census report, 13% of all homes in the United Statesare currently sitting empty.

#35 The housing crisis just seems to keep on getting worse. 31 percent of the homeowners that responded to a recent Rasmussen Reports survey indicated that they are “underwater” on their mortgages.

#36 Unfortunately, it looks like millions more middle class Americans could soon be in danger of losing their homes. According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, at least 8 million Americans are at least one month behind on their mortgage payments at this point

(5-2-11) Dow 12,807 -3 Nasdaq 2,864 -9 S&P 500 1,361 -2 [CLOSE- OIL $112.80 (-54% for year 2008) (RECORD TRADING HIGH $147.27) GAS $3.86 (reg. gas in LAND OF FRUITS AND NUTS $4.22 REG./ $4.35 MID-GRADE/$4.45 PREM./ $4.61 DIESELL) / GOLD $1,538 (+24% for year 2009) / SILVER $44.34 (+47% for year 2009) PLATINUM $1,857 (+56% for year 2009) Metal News for the Day / DOLLAR= .67 EURO, 80 YEN, .59 POUND STERLING, ETC. (How low can you go - LOWER)/ Interest Rates: http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield 10 YR NOTE YIELD 3.29% …..… AP Business Highlights ...Yahoo Market Update... T. Rowe Price Weekly Recap – Stocks / Bonds / Currencies - Domestic / International This Is a Secular Bear Market and The End of Buy and Hold … and Hope The bull market that never was/were beyond wall street b.s. when measured in gold ‘WORST ECONOMIC COLLAPSE EVER’ Must Read Economic / Financial Data This Depression is just beginning The coming depression… thecomingdepression.net The Next Wave of Collapse is Coming Sooner than you think Sliding Back Into the Great Depression ABSOLUTELY, ABSURDLY, RIDICULOUS! SELL / TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME!

National / World

Intel Chief: They Killed “Make Believe Obama” Kurt Nimmo | Hamid Gul says event was a “make believe drama” designed to be used for Obama’s upcoming re-election campaign.

Police State Kicks Into Overdrive On Dubious News of Osama Takedown Kurt Nimmo | Increased police presence in New York, Washington, Los Angeles, Seattle, and elsewhere around the country.

Red Alert: Government Had Osama bin Laden Frozen for Years

Kurt Nimmo and Alex Jones | Obama makes a suspiciously timed speech, claims Osama killed in Pakistan. Videos [ As set for the infra, I personally believe Osama’s been dead for quite some time. Indeed, for one on dialysis, he otherwise would have been nothing less than a modern day miracle in terms of longevity / mortality rates for those so afflicted, particularly under the ‘stressful’ circumstances involving evading capture, betrayal for money, etc.. His ‘surfacing’ for a ‘talk’ wouldn’t even pass muster in the most rudimentary requirements for ‘proof of life’. The release at this time of the ‘announcement’ is, rather than a victory lap so to speak, but rather a sign of weakness and desperation on the part of america whose global and domestic economic, financial, and geopolitical position is substantially diminished and declining rapidly and whose military industrial complex welfare plan along with the Orwellian diversion of the masses could at most yield a pyrrhic victory which also would require for consummation a wrap-up of this nation-bankrupting contrived war scenario, which is not likely. Moreover, the same comes at a time of systemic failure for pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt america While the ‘announcement’ plays well for the nonce, to the dumb, uninformed back home, the same will galvanize resistance in the name of their now martyr, Osama Bin Laden. In sum, other than somewhat questionable propaganda value, the announcement will have no measurable effect on america’s continuing mideast / global debacle. In other words, defacto bankrupt america has used up a ‘bullet’, albeit a blank at that! ]

In February, 2004, Iranian state radio claimed Osama bin Laden had been captured in Pakistan’s border region with Afghanistan “a long time ago.” Pentagon and Pakistani officials denied the report. “Osama bin Laden has been arrested a long time ago, but Bush is intending to use it for propaganda maneuvering in the presidential election,” the radio report said.

Osama bin Laden died of kidney failure soon after the September 11, 2001, attacks. In 2002, Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf said bin Laden had kidney disease, and that he had required a dialysis machine when he lived in Afghanistan. That same year, the FBI’s top counterterrorism official, Dale Watson, said, “I personally think he is probably not with us anymore.”

A Taliban leader told the Pakistan Observer on December 21, 2002, that Bin Laden was suffering from a serious lung complication and died in mid-December, in the vicinity of the Tora Bora mountains. The source claimed that bin Laden was laid to rest honorably in his last abode and his grave was made as per his Wahabi belief, according to Fox News.

Alex Jones was told live on the radio in 2002 by high-level Council on Foreign Relations members that Osama Bin Laden had died of kidney failure in early 2002.

“I have it from high level [sources] from inside the Bush administration…that bin Laden died of natural causes and that his family has given the body to the CIA, that they’re gonna roll him out right before the election, that he’s on ice right now. They will claim they killed him right before the election,” Alex said at the time.

“Jones gave a caution that the intelligence could be disinformation but claimed that his base in Austin was extremely close to the Bush administration and similar information received in the past had been credible,” Paul Joseph Watson wrote in August of 2002.

During the 2004 election, CNN reported that Democratic insiders had been told that George W. Bush was going to use the Bin Laden body as an ace-in-the-hole if he thought he was in danger of losing the 2004 election. This confirmed the evidence that Jones had been given by the CFR and others.

In 2003, former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright told Fox News Channel analyst Morton Kondracke she suspected Bush knew the whereabouts of Osama bin Laden and was waiting for the most politically expedient moment to announce his capture.

Benazir Bhutto, who was killed in a suicide attack at the end of 2007, stated that Osama bin Laden had been killed by Ahmed Omar Saeed Sheikh, a man convicted of kidnapping and killing journalist Daniel Pearl.

Obama’s announcement follows the release of a highly suspicious birth certificate last week. Both events represent psychological operations that possibly portend more significant events in the days ahead as the U.S. dollar continues to lose its reserve status, the economy fails to recover as promised, and wars expand in Libya, Pakistan, and Afghanistan.

Obama’s propaganda stunt arrives as the Democrats kick off their leader’s presidential reelection bid against a number of Republicans contenders who have been highly critical of not only his perceived handling of the economy, but also his management of the manufactured war on terror.’

Live 7 P.M. CST: Alex Jones Special on Bin Laden Hoax Infowars | Alex Jones to give special statement discussing the psy-op and hoax surrounding the reported death of Osama bin Laden.

Osama Bin Laden is Dead Matt Ryan | President Barack Obama is set to address the nation shortly regarding reports that Osama Bin Laden is dead.

Mainstream Media Blames Fake OBL Photo Used By Mainstream Media On “Conspiracy Theorists” Steve Watson | Government says it has real images and video, still deciding whether to release them.

Inside Sources: Bin Laden’s Corpse Has Been On Ice For Nearly a Decade Paul Joseph Watson | Multitude of respected intelligence officials and heads of state have publicly and privately asserted Osama has been dead for years.

Staged Osama Assassination: Get Ready for More War Kurt Nimmo | Cheering crowds voice approval of contrived war on terror.

Government Says Osama Buried at Sea Infowars.com | Anonymous government source says Osama burial followed Islamic practice and tradition.

Media Runs Fake Photo To Illustrate Bin Laden Death Propaganda Paul Joseph Watson | Everything about the Bin Laden myth is fake, so why worry about illustrating his “death” with another contrived hoax?

Final Fake Bin Laden Tape “In The Pipeline” The Obama administration may have announced the demise of Osama Bin Laden last night, years after every other intelligence analyst worth their salt voiced the open secret that Osama has been dead for the best part of a decade, but there’s still time for one more hoaky terror tape that will allow the boogeyman to frighten Americans into giving up more of their rights one last time.

Intel Chief: They Killed “Make Believe Obama” Former Pakistani intelligence chief Hamid Gul went on the Alex Jones Show today and characterized the unverified assassination of Osama bin Laden as symbolic theater.

Chinese Media Reports Pakistani Forces Killed Bin Laden, Then Retracts Pakistani Urdu TV channel Geo News quoted Pakistani intelligence officials as saying that the world’s most wanted terrorist Osama Bin Laden was killed in a search operation launched by the Pakistani forces.

Musharraf: Bin Laden mission violated Pakistan Former Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf on Monday accused the U.S. of violating his country’s sovereignty by sending in special forces to kill Osama bin Laden.

Osama Bin Laden Pronounced Dead… For the Ninth Time When Obama pronounced Osama Bin Laden dead in a televised announcement heard round the world last night, he was at least the ninth major head of state or high-ranking government official to have done so.


Huffington Post Bans Commenters For Questioning Official Story of Bin Laden Death After comment-threading at Huffpost this afternoon about the range of inconsistencies between the White House account of the anti-Bin Laden operation and what appear to be the facts, this little message greeted me when I went to leave a link to tonight’s piece there an hour ago: Sorry, but you have been banned from commenting.

Mainstream Media Blames Fake OBL Photo Used By Mainstream Media On “Conspiracy Theorists” The London Guardian has suggested that the fake image used by several British mainstream media websites this morning on their front pages was the work of “conspiracy theorists” who claimed it was genuine.

Inside Sources: Bin Laden’s Corpse Has Been On Ice For Nearly a Decade A multitude of different inside sources both publicly and privately, including one individual who personally worked with Bin Laden at one time, told us directly that Osama’s dead corpse has been on ice for nearly a decade and that his “death” would only be announced at the most politically expedient time.

Staged Osama Assassination: Get Ready for More War If the cheering crowd at midnight outside the White House is any indication, the American people are ready to support more mass murder in the Middle East.

Osama Bin Laden Pronounced Dead… For the Ninth Time When Obama pronounced Osama Bin Laden dead in a televised announcement heard round the world last night, he was at least the ninth major head of state or high-ranking government official to have done so.

Media Runs Fake Photo To Illustrate Bin Laden Death Propaganda Killing Osama bin Laden is a pretty big deal. You’d think that it would be in the interests of US forces to take a snapshot of the elusive terror leader to milk the propaganda value of such a momentous turn of events, and yet the corporate media has given us nothing but a years old fake picture. This makes little sense, unless of course, somebody is trying to hide something, namely the fact that Osama’s dead corpse has been on ice for the best part of a decade.

Osama bin Laden Has Been Dead For Years CNN and the corporate media report this evening that purported CIA asset Osama bin Laden has been killed by the U.S. military in a mansion outside the Pakistani capital of Islamabad along with other family members.

Osama Raid Plan Was Cancelled Last Month Sources tell ABC News that in March President Obama authorized the development of a plan for the U.S. to bomb Osama bin Laden’s Abbottabad compound with two B2 stealth bombers dropping a few dozen 2,000-pound JDAMs (Joint Direct Attack Munitions) on the compound.

Stock market on a roll despite slowing economic growth, lingering unemployment[Also known as reality! Roll … yes, indeed … everyone’s to get rolled! ] (Washington Post) Dow is up more than 10 percent for 2011, to its highest point in nearly three years. [ Same bubble scenario preceeding last crash (including currency manipulation); yet, far worse this time owing to insurmountable debt and defacto bankruptcy of the nation.

Fed Chairman Bernanke does reality TV (WP) [ Except the ‘NO-RECESSION HELICOPTER BEN B.S. BERNANKE’ show is scripted unreality … even with his reduction in estimate for ‘economic growth’, the frauds on wall street still rallied. Bernanke prepares to make history (Washington Post) [ He already has! $6 gas acomin’, $1,508+ gold, $46+ silver, other commodities at record levels, hyperinflation as predicted well on the way from over-printing of fiat paper currency by fed as predicted, etc., Equity Valuations Are Forming the Second Biggest Bubble in U.S. History Kaspar 'Despite the terrible economic performance of the past ten years, equity valuations are the 2nd largest bubble in U.S. history... According to Yale University’s Dr. Robert Shiller, the market is now 41% overvalued according to this valuation metric. The only time the markets have been more overvalued was a few brief months in 1929 and the tech bubble

... growth in earnings have been artificially manufactured...

· The change in accounting rules for the financial sector by FASB has generated massive “false” account profits beginning in 2009.

· The extended (and then further extended) unemployment benefits have kept an artificially higher demand for consumer consumption. As a result, the US government has artificially subsidized corporate profits.

· The billions saved through “free loading” by homeowners who have defaulted on their mortgages yet maintained their residence, thus living without a mortgage payment.

· The artificially suppressed interest rates...

Dave's Daily 'If you can keep interest rates this low this long, its inevitable cheap financing can allow companies to start cobbling each other up. Further Ben's policies allow companies like IBM to sell bonds at 1% and buy back shares with the proceeds (total paper bubble-scam). POMO is occurring almost daily and Primary Dealers can buy back their shares and pay dividends with what essentially is taxpayer money-- … an especially great opportunity to sell / take profits while you still can since there's much worse to come!

ATTENTION: REPORTERS – HIP BOOTS MANDATORY, WADERS RECOMMENDED SINCE YOU’LL BE AT LEAST KNEE-DEEP IN ‘NO-RECESSION HELICOPTER BEN B.S. BERNAKE’ B*** S***! ] On Wednesday, he will be the first Fed chairman to take on-the-record questioning from the media.

24 Signs Of Economic Decline In America ‘The United States is in the middle of a devastating long-term economic decline’ ] States face shortfall for retirees]

Why do Americans still dislike atheists? (Washington Post) [ And not just americans … Why? First and foremost because there is a God. Second, it is intellectually dishonest to be an atheist. Specifically, there is absolutely no evidence to dispute the existence of God. While one might similarly argue that there is no evidence to suggest there is a God (which I would dispute), which for most is a fair statement, the same would yield at best, if intellectually honest, the position of ‘agnostic’. I can totally understand and even empathize with the view of the agnostic. After all, at this point, there seems to be ‘no rhyme nor reason’ at all. But, think binary, positives / negatives. Just too many negatives. Think ‘capital punishment’. No, the world’s not going to end in 2012 as some fear. Rather, think slow burn; decades at best; then ‘poof’. In the scheme of things, this world’s just not that important (apes, notochordates, and initially single celled organisms). Kind of akin to what I previously wrote: (God doesn’t care that you wrestle a girl who wants to wrestle!) Boy wrestler forfeits match to female opponent... [ What a homo! Wow! I feel sorry for those guys she actually beat (20 of them – her record was 20 and 13) … they’ll probably never get over it … nor should they … I have to rethink my regard for Iowa, Iowa state wrestling now presuming such stalwart championship teams to be the products of out-of-state imports … as for the guy who forfeited, he could have easily and gently taken her down (you can easily do that with a lesser opponent), got her in a double grapevine and grind her in a certain way into the mat, and when she was in the throws of convulsive orgasm, she’d unwittingly arch her back, thereby pressing her own shoulder blades to the mat, thereby pinning herself, thus enabling the homo to say in a manner of speaking that he was making heterosexual love not war with her ……… how pathetic and preposterous this was … and, let me remind the homo that God doesn’t care that you wrestle a girl who wants to wrestle! ]]

Reporters on parade (Washington Post) The White House Correspondents’ Dinner is a display of excess. [ Ah! Another rare instance of my agreement with Mr. Milbank; except, I would have emphasized the excess of everything but future impacting news, out in plain view for everyone to see, yet never quite making the headlines such potentially future altering news deserved. Indeed, who likes to hear such dire, dreary, depressing news when ‘uplifting’, mind-numbing powder puffs can fill the pages…and did … to everyone’s detriment. Attorney General Holder defends his tenure (Washington Post) [ Defending the indefensible! Yes … there is no defending this ag … He should step down, forced to resign … Obama faces fundraising test in California (Washington Post) [ Test? You mean intelligence test for those Californians? A cliché, aphorism is apposite: ‘Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me’. Now frauds on wall street got value for their bribes; viz., no prosecution of their continuing nation-destroying frauds, yet cleaning up the frauds with prosecutions was the presumption upon which their support was predicated , at least in part. Certainly Hollywood spoke with their academy award for ‘Inside Job’ . Roche 'The worst part of it ...Obama, who vowed change, has done almost nothing to fix any of it and in fact continues most of the policies that helped get us here in the first place’ ‘INSIDE JOB’ Ferguson wins Oscar for Documentary on the unprosecuted massive extant fraud in the (many) TRILLIONS by the frauds on wall street ( and declares with oscar in hand that not one high level wall street exec has been prosecuted … despite ‘earning’ billiions from the fraud ), the commentator / experts recommend getting rid of the corrupt eric holder ( what do holder and wobama have in common … wall street money? … a proclivity for jive-talking / b*** s*** ?...all/some of the above … or is it something else ... . UPDATE: MORE CLAIMS OF RACE BIAS AT JUSTICE... In emotional and personal testimony, an ex-Justice official who quit over the handling of a voter intimidation case against the New Black Panther Party accused his former employer of instructing attorneys in the civil rights division to ignore cases that involve black defendants and white victims ' Cases against Wall Street lag despite Holder’s vows to target financial fraud WP | Obama has promised to hold Wall Street accountable for the meltdown. ]

]

U.S. troops’ deadliest month in Iraq (Washington Post) With 11 deaths, April was the worst for U.S. forces since combat missions officially ended last year, according to military and independent record keepers. [Riiiiight! … That ‘progress thing’ they keep reminding us of … which of course is progress in progressive increasing pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt america’s insurmountable debt. Key Afghan aid programs delayed (Washington Post) [ Strategy? Critical time? Seems we’ve heard that song before. And, yet another nation and innocent lives destroyed for no good reason … and, pervasively corrupt and defacto bankrupt america … winning hearts and minds …NOT! … Petraeus to helm more-militarized CIA (Washington Post) [ I personally unequivocally believe there has already been a defacto coup d’etat in america. Drudgereport: Pentagon Warns Obama Against Deeper Defense Cuts ... (And where is it going to come from ... we've already had in pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt, war crimes nation america a defacto coup d'etat) ... Ron Paul: After ‘CIA coup,’ agency ‘runs military’ US House Rep. Ron Paul says the CIA has has in effect carried out a “coup” against the US government, and the intelligence agency needs to be “taken out.” I also personally believe there has been a defacto coup d’etat which has manifested in various substantial, blatant, brazened frauds, ie., wall street, missing 360 tons of $100 bills in Iraq, war profiteering, etc., without any fear of prosecution, and of course concomitant decline for u.s. as the treasury is looted. But I also believe its scope is beyond just the CIA with many complicit within the corrupted 3 branches of u.s. government (fed judges, us attorneys, illegal system, etc.) plus the military and private big money, ie., Goldman Sachs / wall street men, etc… http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm

Top Mexican Drug Lord: I Trafficked Cocaine For The U.S. Government .. CIA torture jet that crashed with four tons on cocaine on board back in 2007 has told the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Illinois in Chicago that he has been working as a U.S. government asset for years. . Rendition: Where the War on Terror Meets the War on Drugs Henningsen | ... I’ve experienced the corrupt inter-relationship of the government (all 3 corrupt branches) and the illegal drug trade / obstruction of justice / bribery first hand, particularly the courts / u.s. attorneys offices (ie., alito – now u.s. supreme court justice – quid pro quo for his complicity / cover-up), feds

]

The outdated ‘Trump Rule’ (Washington Post) COLUMN | The would-be GOP presidential contender has long shown a penchant for sexism. Trump calls leaders ‘stupid’ at Vegas casino [ Again, the pot calls the kettle black … if it was only just sexism that defined deeply flawed, mental case, mobster / fraudster trump, … yet there’s just enough truth and an open bar to keep their attention … Memo to Donald Trump: You're fired Los Angeles Times - What The Donald 'accomplished' is to make a fool of himself and diminish President Obama's dignity. It's time for the loud-mouthed man with the big bankroll and bad haircut to take his sideshow to the trash heap.’… What Mr. Banks fails to realize is that wobama has no dignity and appropriate criticism, as I’ve said before, is to him like ‘water off a duck’s back’ and you can not shame the stereotypical wobama. TRUMP TO GIBBS: YOU'RE 'A LOSER' [‘Another trumped-up case of the pot calling the kettle black’]... TRUMP: Obama Not Worthy of Ivy Leagues... [ Talk about the pot calling the kettle black … trump’s b.s., low grade (penn) ivy league (courtesy of papa mobster trump who ‘twisted his arm to go’ so people would take him ‘seriously’ – papa mobster trump would pound the undistinguished academically / athletically, Donald with the mantra, ‘you’re a killer, you’re a king’ in film noir melodramatic fashion which proved too much for the more balanced and ‘chosen / favored’ elder brother trump who committed suicide. The old man also required trump to go to prep / military / boarding school where according to a classmate, Ted Levine, trump used to wet / pee in his bed. ) vegetable garden in the same manner as dumbya bush … mobster trump and people like trump are part of the problem (total b*** s***, fraud, etc., as in his home turf, mob-infested sinkholes, jersey / new york), not the solution. Indeed, trump is an interesting mental case in that he evolved from narcissist (those inflated grandiose moods coupled with feelings of inferiority – he loved to obsessively read those hitler speeches for inspiration and to pump himself up according to Ivana Trump) to severe case of antisocial personality disorder [ predatory disregard for and violation of the rights of others – hence, those sophomoric soundbite solutions to complex problems as, ie., taking oil fields(Libya), 25% tariff on Chinese (american goods made in China), drug money laundering in his casinos, bribery, etc. http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm ]

In a rational nation that wasn’t in decline as pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt america, trump and sister Maryanne would both be in prison.

The president, lost in thought (WP) [ How ‘bout just lost! Wobama … a common liar. Drudgereport: TELEPROMPTER INVENTOR DIES... (Wobama ‘mourns … day of silence declared’)


U.S. Murders Children in Bid to Assassinate Qaddafi Tony Cartalucci | Ghoulish hunt for Qaddafi defines NATO.

Nuclear Adviser to Japanese President Resigns Over Radiation Levels Infowars.com | Toshiso Kosako says government set inappropriate radiation limits for elementary schools near plant.

Osama bin Laden Has Been Dead For Years CNN and the corporate media report this evening that purported CIA asset Osama bin Laden has been killed by the U.S. military in a mansion outside the Pakistani capital of Islamabad along with other family members.

Fed Sting Against Amish Raw Milk Producer Results in Federal Case A year long sting operation against an Amish “contraband” raw milk producer in Pennsylvania has resulted in a court case against Rainbow Acres Farms. The government filed a ten page complaint against the Amish business in federal court last week.

Romney: Blame Obama for Record Gas Prices Sick and tired of high gas prices? It’s all Obama’s fault, according to Mitt Romney, who pumped his own gas on Friday as the cameras rolled.

Gaddafi’s youngest son killed in NATO airstrike Sayf al-Arab Gaddafi, embattled Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi’s youngest son, has been killed in an airstrike on Saturday, a government spokesman says.

US Murders Children in Bid to Assassinate Qaddafi (Again) The very policy of targeted assassinations sidesteps any semblance of law, national or international.

Libya disabled children school hit in NATO strike Shattered glass litters the carpet at the Libyan Down’s Syndrome Society, and dust covers pictures of grinning children that adorn the hallway, thrown into darkness by a NATO strike early on Saturday.

“We don’t have time for this silliness”: White House correspondents’ dinner sees a less-serious Obama Hoping to further quash conspiracy theories, President Obama announced Saturday night that he would show his official birth video, in front of an audience of 2,500 journalists, celebrities and hangers-on at the Washington Hilton.

Syria: Intervention Inevitable Regime change in Syria was a foregone conclusion as early as 1991. General Wesley Clark in a 2007 speech in California relayed a 1991 conversation between himself and then Under Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz.

Drudgereport: REPORT: Bin Laden already buried at sea... [ As set for the supra, I personally believe Osama’s been dead for quite some time. Indeed, for one on dialysis, he otherwise would have been nothing less than a modern day miracle in terms of longevity / mortality rates for those so afflicted, particularly under the ‘stressful’ circumstances involving evading capture, betrayal for money, etc.. His ‘surfacing’ for a ‘talk’ wouldn’t even pass muster in the most rudimentary requirements for ‘proof of life’. The release at this time of the ‘announcement’ is, rather than a victory lap so to speak, but rather a sign of weakness and desperation on the part of america whose global and domestic economic, financial, and geopolitical position is substantially diminished and declining rapidly and whose military industrial complex welfare plan along with the Orwellian diversion of the masses could at most yield a pyrrhic victory which also would require for consummation a wrap-up of this nation-bankrupting contrived war scenario, which is not likely. Moreover, the same comes at a time of systemic failure for pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt america While the ‘announcement’ plays well for the nonce, to the dumb, uninformed back home, the same will galvanize resistance in the name of their now martyr, Osama Bin Laden. In sum, other than somewhat questionable propaganda value, the announcement will have no measurable effect on america’s continuing mideast / global debacle. In other words, defacto bankrupt america has used up a ‘bullet’, albeit a blank at that! ]

SHOT IN HEAD; BIN LADEN IS DEAD.....
SEALS HELD TWO REHEARSALS; OBAMA WATCHED RAID IN SITUATION ROOM...
Mission was to kill, not capture; no prisoners taken...
OFFICIAL: BIN LADEN GIVEN RELIGIOUS FUNERAL BEFORE SEA BURIAL...
Obama: U.S. Carried Out Operation 'At My Direction'...
Hundreds gather outside Bush's Dallas home...
SIGN: 'Obama Forgot To Say Thank You President Bush!'
Killing brings anger, relief in Arab world...
Pakistanis rally to pay homage to bin Laden...
Musharraf: Mission violated sovereignty...
Hamas condemns killing of 'holy warrior'...

BURIED AT SEA:
WH DEBATES RELEASING PHOTO OF CORPSE

U.S. issues worldwide travel alert...
Islamists: Death will not mute Jihad call...
OFFICIAL: U.S. didn't want to create shrine...
DNA tests won't be complete for days...
WHITE HOUSE: BODY HANDLED IN 'ACCORDANCE WITH ISLAMIC PRACTICE'...
WIKILEAKS: Al Qaeda to unleash 'nuclear hellstorm' if Osama killed...

FEAR: Security Tightened at NY Airports, Times Square, World Trade Center Site...
Napolitano: 'Heightened state of vigilance'...
U.S. issues worldwide travel alert...
Chemical Biological Response Team Recalled from Japan...
Taliban commander vows to avenge death...
USA 'Faces Broad Terror Threat'...

SHOT IN HEAD; BIN LADEN IS DEAD.....
Killed in mansion close to Pakistani capital...
Crowds gather at White House, Ground Zero to celebrate...
REPORT: DNA testing confirms bin Laden death... [ Come on! Much like the purported ‘in-house’ DNA test ‘confirming’ the paternity of ‘Prince Harry’ (actually the bastard son of Hewitt), easy enough to buy / contrive with sworn secrecy / money. ]

WH: '99.9% sure...
PENTAGON: WIFE IDENTIFIED HIM BY NAME DURING RAID...
Senator questions sea burial... [ Yeah … pretty quick at that, particularly for the u.s. government! Riiiiight! ‘Dead men buried at sea quickly tell no tales!’ Sounds contrived, set to music for propaganda value at u.s. low point. ]
Islamic scholars condemn...
SKYNEWS: Can US Offer Final Proof Of Osama's Death?
Will there be a photo?
Raid captured on TWITTER...
PHOTOS: 719 newspaper front pages announce death...

GADHAFI SURVIVES ATTACK THAT KILLS SON...
Disabled children school hit in NATO strike...
April deadliest month for US in Iraq since '09...
Obama's father forced out at Harvard...
BOSTON — President Barack Obama’s father was forced to leave Harvard University before completing his Ph.D. in economics because the school was concerned about his personal life and finances, according to newly public immigration records. Harvard had asked the Immigration and Naturalization Service to delay a request by Barack Hussein Obama Sr. to extend his stay in the U.S., “until they decided what action they could take in order to get rid of him,” immigration official M.F. McKeon wrote in a June 1964 memo. Harvard administrators, the memo stated, “were having difficulty with his financial arrangements and couldn’t seem to figure out how many wives he had.”…’


Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0411/53968.html#ixzz1L7vqFAhV


‘Microsoft confirmed Thursday its Windows cash machine is under threat. So what else is new? Uncertainty about the PC market's growth prospects, and what that means for Windows in particular, arguably has been baked into Microsoft's ...’

Microsoft wrestles slack PC sales and wilting stock Reuters [ Microsoft is a dinosaur that should be out of business! My latest / current but typical problems with Microsoft / windows-based pc’s (dell) confirms this! ]

Gallup Poll Shows that More Americans Believe the U.S. is in a Depression than is Growing … Are They Right? [ Yes! ]Consumer confidence is, well … in somewhat of a depression.

Investors Seek Shelter: Dave's Daily ‘Another day and another light volume rally in stocks. Investors continued to hedge this action by buying precious metals. Ludicrous statements by government officials regarding inflation and the dollar are starting to wear thin even among Permabulls. The WSJ headlined this topic Friday stating government officials are "unfazed by dollar slide". But, they reached fuzzy conclusions about what to do about it. As long as the government doesn't seem to care, commodities will rise, especially precious metals. It's the elephant in the room no one really wants to confront. One way to end Bucky's slide is to stop printing so much money. The Bernank hasn't figured this out since his previous academic studies didn't yield results like we're experiencing now. In the Great Depression, from which he gained his theories and policies, it was illegal to own gold and currency trading hardly existed. But the Fed Chairman hasn't figured this out yet so he continues to keep the presses running at full speed as we saw today with more POMO ($6.6 billion) actions to lube the Primary Dealers. Earnings continue to roll-in mostly mixed. The DJIA continues to lead the way as high priced heavyweights (BA, CAT, CVX and etc) continue to lead the price-weighted index higher. Losers included Microsoft(MSFT_) and Research in Motion(RIMM_). The bottom line is that it's the end of the month and window-dressing remains at the forefront…’

Why History Says You Should 'Sell in May' StermanThe most active traders, which usually man Wall Street's trading desks, can alter market sentiment by either their presence or absence. As the weather warms, these traders take ever longer lunch breaks, which morphs into "Friday-free weekends," culminating in their absence for decent chunk of the month of August. When these traders leave their desks, it's a sign for the rest of us to cool off as well, in case thin trading volume causes one of our holdings to suddenly spike or plunge. Hence, the old-adage: "Sell in May and then go away." (Until the fall...)

Is it a wise move? Let's look. Well, we know April surely gives the impressions of a solid market rally. The S&P 500 (SPY) rose, 4%, 4% and 10% respectively in each of the past three years and is up another 2.2% this month. That rally has recently extended into May, as the S&P 500 has rallied an average of 3% in the past three years. But by the end of May, the party seems to end.

(Click charts to expand)

http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2011/4/29/saupload_04_29_11_sterman.png

The market has fallen in six of the past 10 Junes of the past decade, three times the rate at which the various positive months have risen. Was there a July bounce-back? Well, the five Julys of the last decade were split, but the average loss was greater than the average gain.

http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2011/4/29/saupload_04_29_11_sterman2.png

The rest of the summer doesn't hold much promise, either. An analysis by Standard & Poor's shows that in the past 60 years, the market has fallen by 0.04% on average in August. It's even worse in September, with that figure dropping to 0.78%. In fact, September is the only month to produce negative average results through the past 80 years, according to Ibbotson & Associates. Lastly, here's a sobering stat: according to S&P, since 1950, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has produced an average gain of 7.4% from November through April and 0.4% from May through October. (Yet as I noted above, May has looked a bit stronger during the past three years.)

If you believe in the notion of "sell in May and go away," then there are certain sectors you should be concerned about that are especially vulnerable to the summer doldrums. For example, tech stocks tend to lag in summer months, due to the capital spending cycle. Major orders are placed at the beginning of the year and then purchasing managers are told to slow it down as the year progresses, in part because it's hard to round up key materials during the summer to complete major installations when so many are planning their summer vacations. By year's end, tech spending rebounds as purchasing managers tend to spend allocated-but-unused funds, in what's know as a budget flush.

Natural gas stocks tend to weaken in the summer, unless it is an especially active season for hurricanes or a large heat wave causes a spike in demand. In their absence, heavy gas production, coupled with seasonal ebb in demand, has tended to max-out gas storage facilities. And when that happens, gas prices hit new lows and producers are forced to curtail production.

Lastly, commodities such as precious and industrial metals tend to slump as major purchasers compete their full-year purchasing needs in the spring. Indeed, China is said to be sitting on more-than-ample supplies of copper, silver and other surging commodities, right at a time when the Chinese government is trying to cool its economy. A drop in demand would pull the rug out from some of the highest-flying commodities. Watch the commodity sector, especially as it is priced to perfection and highly vulnerable to any slowdown in demand…’

S&P's US Downgrade and the Death of American Exceptionalism Harding ‘america, formerly the world’s greatest country, whose financial strength and currency were supreme for the past 100 years, has been put on notice by Standard & Poor’s that it is … second rate status. It was disconcerting to read the ho-hum reactions of economists to S&P’s shift to a negative outlook for US sovereign debt. As one who sees darker implications of a downgrade in Treasuries, it gave me pause to wonder if I am overreacting to the event. Perhaps they are correct in that it will probably not happen, and that if it does, it’s no big deal because the dollar is still the world’s reserve currency. Japan (real fine…disaster) and Great Britain (real fine…disaster) did it and they are fine. And where else would investors go?

My conclusion is that the other 99 guys are out of step. My fellow analysts are mired so deep in the trees that they overlook the forest of reasons why we got into this mess in the first place. The problem with economic analysis and analysts is that there is a tendency of disassembly. By breaking down the problem into its parts one can miss how they all connect. Perhaps if they stepped back and considered where this country is heading they would be less sanguine.

After all, we are not looking at a single event but a series of political decisions made over the past 15 years or so that have created today’s budget crisis. And stepping back even farther, we are experiencing fundamental changes in American culture. The well-worn cliché of the large ocean tanker taking miles to change course is an accurate depiction of our situation. There is so much built-in momentum based on entitlements and defense spending it is unlikely that a crisis can be avoided.

Our economic and policy experts need to focus on this long-term problem rather than just its short-term effects. Unless we deal with the fundamental problems, today’s jury-rigged fixes will not stop our continued downward spiral.

The long-term problem is that American culture has changed and we are losing what has been known as American “exceptionalism” as described by de Toqueville in
Democracy in America:

Tocqueville tried to understand why America was so different from Europe in the last throes of aristocracy. America, in contrast to the aristocratic ethic, was a society where hard work and money-making was the dominant ethic, where the common man enjoyed a level of dignity which was unprecedented, where commoners never deferred to elites, and where what he described as crass individualism and market capitalism had taken root to an extraordinary degree.


These values, behaviors, and ideas made America great.

But, things have changed. Today it is acceptable to rely on government to solve our problems instead of taking responsibility for solving them ourselves. We borrow more, spend more, save less, and rely on government to bail us out in old age. We want government to “take care of us” when it comes to medical care. We have become a culture of entitlement. And our rhetoric is more about victimhood and entitlement than initiative and self-reliance. Unlike our grandparents, we have no shame from accepting handouts.

We now accept Social Security and Medicare as normal. Many want Obamacare and are willing to give up some sovereignty and self-reliance to get it. Our younger generations believe they have a right to higher education and that they (or their parents) should not have to pay for it. Government always has a solution for you.

This is a massive cultural shift and it represents a struggle between two opposing forces: our exceptionalism versus the entitlement culture. Both operate in our society side-by-side, but the trend clearly favors the culture of entitlement.

Our exceptionalism has declined inversely to the rise of the welfare state. It started with the Progressive movement in the early 20th Century and the rise of a powerful federal government. The greatest change came during the Franklin Roosevelt years when government was seen to be a solution rather than the problem that our Founders witnessed. The New Deal changed the social landscape because its many programs pervaded almost every aspect of society. Many of these programs survive today.

The significance of the Progressive movement is that the now common belief that government “works” has become fixed in the popular psyche. That is far from de Toqueville’s image of self-reliant individualistic Americans. The belief that we can rely on government to solve problems means that we don’t have to solve them ourselves. It means subordinating our individualism to the technocrat class.

What are the consequences of this cultural shift? Higher taxes and a less dynamic economy. Ultimately it means the disintegration of our economy. Let me explain why.

We are becoming “European” in the sense that most of our fellow Americans accept the idea that the welfare state has primacy over the individual in pursuing social goals. As a result we are becoming less dynamic as a society. We are becoming more complacent, culturally acceding to the mediocrity of security at the expense of personal freedom. It means that taxpayers are willing to accept higher taxes to pay for the Nanny State.

The question is: which taxpayers?

It is an axiom of politics that the recipient class will vote to preserve their benefits. If they become the majority you will never get rid of their benefits. The recipient class is already in the majority. The 77 million long-lived Baby Boomers will be the dominant economic force for the next 40 years. And they vote.

[chart]

Boomers will retire and apply for their Social Security and Medicare benefits. That is, they will cease being producers and become recipients. They will draw on those benefits for many, many years. It’s pretty obvious they won’t pay for it.

It doesn’t take a statistician to see that our declining birthrate means there will be fewer producers to support a growing class of recipient. The Social Security Administration estimates that by 2035 only 2.1 workers will support one recipient (down from about 5.1 workers in 1960 to about 3.0 today). Therein lies the problem: our system of benefits is unworkable. When the working taxpayers realize how much they must pay in taxes to support an unworkable system, change will come, just not soon enough to satisfy S&P.

Add to that the following statistic:

A record 18.3% of the nation’s total personal income was a payment from the government for Social Security, Medicare, food stamps, unemployment benefits, and other programs in 2010. Wages accounted for the lowest share of income -- 51.0% -- since the government began keeping track in 1929.


You may believe that the cultural values de Tocqueville identified haven’t diminished in the US, but they have. Almost every index measuring startups and job creation has declined. Here is some longitudinal data from the Census Department showing this trend:

[chart]

It would be foolish of me to ignore the unparalleled entrepreneurial infrastructure we Americans have. It is still strong and serves us well. This infrastructure includes a vast economic system that provides capital and support for entrepreneurs and rewards success well. It is a strong social force that is the exact opposite of the cultural attitudes toward entitlement that I discussed above. We still believe in the ability to make it big.

But that is changing. The decline in new business formation is still a telling statistic. Since most (55%) new business formations have 1 to 4 employees (if 1 to 10, then 76% in 2009), it demonstrates a shift in popular attitudes about starting your own business.

Good things don’t last forever when their cultural and moral foundations are being destroyed.

I don’t believe we will have budget reform that will be sufficient to turn supertanker America around. We will have budget reform but it won’t put a significant dent in our social welfare programs, at least in time to avoid S&P’s threatened downgrade of US Treasuries. I would hope that Republicans and Democrats can come together to deal with the
underlying substantive issues. Maybe the Republicans will be able to force through some major changes in Social Security, Medicare, and (eliminate) Obamacare. If they win the Presidency in 2012 and are able to take Congress as well, it could be a political sea change.

Don’t misunderstand what I am saying: I strongly support any attempts at reform, but I don’t believe in political miracles. When polls of Tea Partiers show they don’t want their retirement benefits touched, their new brand of conservatism illustrates the breadth of our cultural change and the new political reality.

Ask yourself this question: if the welfare system is not quickly reformed, what solutions will our politicians turn to?

The answer is symbolic of the two clashing societal forces in America: the producers versus the recipients. We know that the recipients have more votes.

I believe increased taxes are inevitable and, with Republicans’ opposition to increased income taxes, raising them is questionable. That leaves politicians with a very European solution: a national sales tax. With exemptions for politically favored classes (“poor” people, however defined) it will be hailed as a fair tax that will fall primarily on the “rich.”

“Everybody who understands our long-term budget problems understands we’re going to need a new source of revenue, and a VAT [value-added tax] is an obvious candidate,” said Leonard Burman, co-director of the Tax Policy Center, a joint project of the Urban Institute and the Brookings Institution, who testified on Capitol Hill [May, 2009] about his own VAT plan. “It’s common to the rest of the world, and we don’t have it.”


And my point is that Americans will accept high taxes to get their benefits and that makes us similar to Europeans who are used to them:

[chart]

If we cannot achieve fundamental reform of our welfare system, then high taxes will become a fixture of our society and that has negative economic consequences.

There is an economic concept known as the Rahn Curve, devised by Professor Richard Rahn, now a Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute. It states that as government spending exceeds a certain percentage of GDP, the economy will decline as a result. That number is subject to fierce debate among economists, but it ranges from 15% to 25% of GDP.

[chart]

There are sound reasons for this idea, mainly that since government produces nothing, the more it spends the less the private economy has to invest and spend. This means less productivity. European countries are saddled with low productivity, high taxes, and permanently high unemployment. Further, they are facing the same demographic issues that we find in the US: a graying (and declining) population. Their welfare systems are in trouble now, and as Margaret Thatcher famously warned about socialism, they are finding that eventually you really do run out of other people’s money.

What does this mean for America and S&P? It means we are likely to experience a downgrade in our sovereign debt at some point in the future. Don’t ask me to predict when this will happen. There are too many “what ifs.” A downgrade means that there will be less money available to the government for its programs. It means that debt service costs will rise. It means the Treasury will find it more difficult to place US debt. It means that many holder of our debt will try to unload their positions (it won’t be easy for them). It means the Fed will likely acquire more Treasurys, effectively monetizing the debt and this monetary inflation will lead to price inflation. It means that the dollar will decline further. It means there will be pressure on the government to raise taxes further. It also means that inflation will be employed as an additional tool of fiscal policy as rising prices (actually devalued dollars) will allow the government to repay debt with cheaper dollars.

It will also mean that we will be closer to the European ideal and farther away from american exceptionalism. The very long-term consequences of this cannot be known, but it won’t be good for america…’

(Washington Post) Public workers’ retirement funds had a gap of $1.26 trillion at the end of fiscal 2009, a report says.

Study: Affordable rentals scarce (Washington Post) Share of renters who spend more than half their income on housing is at its highest level in half a century.

Poll: For Obama, low marks on Afghan war (Washington Post) More Americans disapprove of President Obama’s management of the war in Afghanistan than support it, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll, a finding that reflects the public’s broader concern over the course of the nearly decade-old conflict.

Fuel prices cut into Obama popularity (Washington Post) As gas prices bite into household incomes, Obama’s support takes a hit, according to new poll. The high fuel price dynamic is the slow / now faster motion, long predicted hyperinflationary consequence of failed fed, administration, congressional economic / financial / fiscal policy that essentially has been interposed for the (short-term particularly) benefit of the frauds on wall street (The frauds on wall street et als should be criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed), and have used the mideast turmoil to obfuscate their failure… an especially great opportunity to sell / take profits while you still can since there's much worse to come! America Is a Failed State Because It Won’t Prosecute Financial Crime Washington’s Blog / the grim economic reality [ http://albertpeia.com/grimreality.htm ]. Selling In May Is Very Good Advice This Year Harding / April Is a Good Time to Sell Adler Equity Valuations Are Forming the Second Biggest Bubble in U.S. History Kaspar ... According to Yale University’s Dr. Robert Shiller, the market is now 41% overvalued …only time the markets have been more overvalued .. 1929 & tech bubble. http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2011/4/12/saupload_cape_thumb1.png PRECHTER: We're Still In A Massive Bear Market And Stocks Will Crash To New Lows Return of Inflation: 5 Worrying Signs From Friday's NY Times

Gerson: How serious are we about the deficit? (Washington Post) [ Not too! I mean come on! Davis ‘… This is how we pay off our current debts and I think bondholders are simply happy to get anything out of a country that admits it owes $15Tn (1/4 of global GDP) but probably owes closer to $60Tn (entire global GDP) in the form of unfunded liabilities. The funniest thing about this (and you have to laugh) is to see Conservative pundits get on TV and talk about how we need to cut $100Bn worth of discretionary spending to "fix" this (while continuing to spend $1Tn on the military and $1Tn on tax cuts for the top 1% each year). There is no fixing this and even a Republican said you can’t fool all of the people all of the time. THIS HOUSE OF CARDS IS TEETERING FOLKS – PLEASE BE CAREFUL OUT THERE! ‘ Suckers’ rally to keep suckers suckered: Philadelphia Fed Depresses Economists Durden ‘On Thursday April 21, 2011, 1:32 pm EDT And here comes the first indicator that Q2 GDP is about to be mass revised by everyone, courtesy of Japan, and ongoing inflation pressures: the Philadelphia Fed collapsed from a revised 43.4 (a 27 year high) to 18.5, the lowest since November 2010… This is an especially great opportunity to sell / take profits while you still can since there's much worse to come!

Corporate Poll Reveals Boobeoisie Fooled Again on Budget Kurt Nimmo | Little people think for some reason establishment Republicans will do a better job dealing with the “budget.”

Dollar Loses More Ground

WSJ | The dollar dropped after economic indicators pointed to a dismal employment picture and slowing economic growth.

Economic Growth Slow as Inflation Measure Spikes Up Reuters | U.S. economic growth slowed more than expected in the first quarter as higher food and gasoline prices dampened consumer spending.


Don’t worry about silver until it hits at least $100, says Jim Rogers Commodities bull Jim Rogers has admitted he is worried that silver might go “parabolic” and crash later this year. The 69-year-old investor remains confident that gold will continue to rise but says that if silver continues to rise at its recent rate, “you’ve got a bubble”.

McDonalds Hires 62,000, Turns Away Over 938,000 Applicants For Minimum Wage, Part-Time Jobs This is what the US economy has been reduced to: McDonalds reports that as part of its employment event to hire 50,000 minimum wage, part-time (mostly) workers, subsequently raised to 62,000 it received a whopping 1 million applications, or a Tim Geithner jealousy inducing 6.2% hit rate (h/t X. Kurt. OSis).

Chinese Yuan Hits 18 Year High Against Dollar The world’s most anticipated currency revaluation continues at its traditional glacial pace. And while it is not a surprise to anyone, the overnight PBOC fixing for the CNY dropped below the psychological 6.50 level (or 6.4990 to be precise) for the first time since 1993.

People are leaving California city because of poor economy There is much talk in Washington, D.C. that the economic recovery is underway, but in some parts of the America, like in Riverside, Ca., the economy continues to take a downward spiral.

National security shake-up expected (Washington Post) [ Shake-up? I don’t think so. There may have been a time when a such changes, be it personnel, policy, etc., might as per the following reference be slight exaggeration; but no more, as all such now is literally a rearrangement of the deck chairs on the uss Titanic. Nothing succeeds quite like failure in america these days! Poll: Egyptians skeptical about U.S. Egyptians have an unfavorable view of the U.S., but they are also divided over Islamic fundamentalists. (Washington Post) [ Hey! … Guess what? … americans and the rest of the world (except zionist israel, zionists, and old biddy britain) are skeptical and have an unfavorable view of america. The Economic Collapse: 24 more signs of economic decline in America…

#1 On Monday, S&P altered its outlook on U.S. government debt from “stable” to “negative” ..at the rest of the world is losing faith in the U.S. dollar and in U.S. Treasuries.

#2 China has announced reducing their holdings of U.S. dollar

#3 .. “panic dollar selling is setting in” and U.S. dollar in for a huge decline.

#4 The biggest bond fund in the world, PIMCO, is now shorting U.S. government bonds.

#5 Bad economy is causing “ghost towns” to appear all across the U.S..

#6 There are now about 7.25 million less jobs in America than when the recession began back in 2007.

#7 The average American family is having a really tough time - Only 45.4% of Americans had a job during 2010. .

#8 Only 66.8% of American men had a job last year- lowest level ever ..

#9 Avg CEO made 343 times more money than the average American

#10 Gas prices five dollars per gallon at gas stations.. $6 gas soon

#11 .. 12 months the average price of gasoline in the US has gone up by about 30%.

#12 Due to rising fuel prices, American Airlines lost a staggering $436 million during first qtr 2011.

#13 U.S. households now receiving more from the US gov’t than they are paying to the government in taxes.

#14 1 of 4 dollars that the U.S. govt borrows goes to pay the interest on the national debt.

#15 Total home mortgage debt in the United States is now about 5 times larger than it was just 20 years ago.

#16 Total credit card debt in u.s. more than 8 times larger than 30 yrs ago.

#17 Avg household debt in the United States has now reached a level of 136% of avg household income. In China, avg household debt is only 17% of avg household income.

#18 Avg American spends approximately 23 percent .. on food and gas.

#19 .. 74 percent of u.s. said that they planned to slow down their spending

#20 59 percent u.s. receive money from the govt ..

#21 avg length of unemployment in the U.S. is now an all-time record 39 weeks.

#22 u.s. random acts of violence”…

#23 Americans are popping the gold teeth right out of their mouths / selling them to pawn shops.

#24 ..u.s. people gobbling up larger and larger amounts of antidepressants / other drugs. ..’ ]

The president, lost in thought (Washington Post) In politics, deep and complex thinkers such as Obama can seem adrift. [ How ‘bout just lost! Wobama apologist Mr. Milbank is at it again;viz., new ways to explain away wobama’s reflection at trying to remember what he previously said so as not to appear as to have been as disingenuous as you’d expect a common liar to be. Yet, I believe Mr. Milbank misreads the current signs which in fact reflect for ‘wobama the b’ (for b*** s***) a current loss beyond thought which has cast him into a ‘funk’: Drudgereport: TELEPROMPTER INVENTOR DIES... (Wobama ‘goes in mourning … day of silence declared’)

Attorney General Holder defends his tenure (Washington Post) [ Defending the indefensible! Yes … there is no defending this ag … He should step down, forced to resign … Obama faces fundraising test in California (Washington Post) [ Test? You mean intelligence test for those Californians? A cliché, aphorism is apposite: ‘Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me’. Now frauds on wall street got value for their bribes; viz., no prosecution of their continuing nation-destroying frauds, yet cleaning up the frauds with prosecutions was the presumption upon which their support was predicated , at least in part. Certainly Hollywood spoke with their academy award for ‘Inside Job’ . Roche 'The worst part of it ...Obama, who vowed change, has done almost nothing to fix any of it and in fact continues most of the policies that helped get us here in the first place’ ‘INSIDE JOB’ Ferguson wins Oscar for Documentary on the unprosecuted massive extant fraud in the (many) TRILLIONS by the frauds on wall street ( and declares with oscar in hand that not one high level wall street exec has been prosecuted … despite ‘earning’ billiions from the fraud ), the commentator / experts recommend getting rid of the corrupt eric holder ( what do holder and wobama have in common … wall street money? … a proclivity for jive-talking / b*** s*** ?...all/some of the above … or is it something else ... . UPDATE: MORE CLAIMS OF RACE BIAS AT JUSTICE... In emotional and personal testimony, an ex-Justice official who quit over the handling of a voter intimidation case against the New Black Panther Party accused his former employer of instructing attorneys in the civil rights division to ignore cases that involve black defendants and white victims ' Cases against Wall Street lag despite Holder’s vows to target financial fraud WP | Obama has promised to hold Wall Street accountable for the meltdown. ]

ECONOMIC CRISIS ARCHIVE

National / World

Approval of Congress at 9% Rasmussen Reports | Nine percent (9%) now say Congress is doing a good.

Original rulers of the celebrity world (Washington Post) Perhaps more than any single event, wedding is exposing members of royal family for what they really are. [ What they really are? … only slightly less nauseating than the wobamas! … I mean, come on … at least actors serve some purpose; viz., the cinematic artform. I refrained from ‘raining on their parade’ as ‘bad style’ but now I can say the same is ‘much ado about nothing’, and quite embarrassing for particularly Orwellian england which is in shambles, much like the pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt u.s.. In this world, there are no elites, nothing royal, and monarchies are indulgent anachronisms that are obsolete and can no longer be afforded. It’s rather pathetic to see the brits and yanks falling all over themselves on this. After all, aren’t the so-called royals no more than over-indulged, opulently accoutered welfare families upon whose wealth, though largely the result of public ‘largess’, the servile public have no lien. in evolutionary terms vis-a-vis the species, though I hate to be the spoiler, 'time has run out'. After all, in the last analysis, what can you really expect from a species derived from apes, notochordates, and initially single celled organisms. One might even say in light of such humble beginnings, 'hey, not bad!' I would not be one of them. ( Neanderthals, Humans Interbred, DNA Proves

You're a Neanderthal: Genes say yes — a little bit (AP) Neanderthals and people interbred, fossil analysis finds For more info on man’s humble beginnings, see here http://www.albertpeia.com/anthroindex1.htm [



FOUND: MISSING LINK BETWEEN APES AND MAN.... These stories, and the many like it, are old news and I subscribe to the more studied view that there is no “missing link” per se and in my view they are distinctions without significant differences.

10-5-09 Postscript: Professor *****,
I felt compelled to thank you again for the add; not to curry your favor but indeed to express profound thanks inasmuch as this is probably the last formal course at a formal educational institution I'll ever take; and among the most important. While I had bought at discount a library-discarded 1993 Anthropology by Embers text, though meaning to read same never quite got to it. I am astounded by the substantial amount of time involved in the evolutionary process, not that I ever stopped to think about it, and one must come away with the sense of 'and all that...for this?'. This course should be required curriculum along with psychology, sociology, etc., but probably won't be owing to what is, as it should be, a very humbling educational experience for any member of the human race.
Regards,
Al Peia ). ]

More Democrats defiant on debt ceiling (Washington Post) Lawmakers are pushing back against the White House, joining the GOP in calling for deficit reductions as a condition for lifting the $14.3 trillion ceiling. [ Ah yes, ‘The Defiant Ones’… principled to the end … Gerson: How serious are we about the deficit? (Washington Post) [ Not too! I mean come on! Davis ‘… This is how we pay off our current debts and I think bondholders are simply happy to get anything out of a country that admits it owes $15Tn (1/4 of global GDP) but probably owes closer to $60Tn (entire global GDP) in the form of unfunded liabilities. The funniest thing about this (and you have to laugh) is to see Conservative pundits get on TV and talk about how we need to cut $100Bn worth of discretionary spending to "fix" this (while continuing to spend $1Tn on the military and $1Tn on tax cuts for the top 1% each year). There is no fixing this and even a Republican said you can’t fool all of the people all of the time. THIS HOUSE OF CARDS IS TEETERING FOLKS – PLEASE BE CAREFUL OUT THERE! ‘ Suckers’ rally to keep suckers suckered: Philadelphia Fed Depresses Economists Durden ‘On Thursday April 21, 2011, 1:32 pm EDT And here comes the first indicator that Q2 GDP is about to be mass revised by everyone, courtesy of Japan, and ongoing inflation pressures: the Philadelphia Fed collapsed from a revised 43.4 (a 27 year high) to 18.5, the lowest since November 2010… This is an especially great opportunity to sell / take profits while you still can since there's much worse to come!

The Economic Collapse: 24 more signs of economic decline in America…

#1 On Monday, S&P altered its outlook on U.S. government debt from “stable” to “negative” ..at the rest of the world is losing faith in the U.S. dollar and in U.S. Treasuries.

#2 China has announced reducing their holdings of U.S. dollar

#3 .. “panic dollar selling is setting in” and U.S. dollar in for a huge decline.

#4 The biggest bond fund in the world, PIMCO, is now shorting U.S. government bonds.

#5 Bad economy is causing “ghost towns” to appear all across the U.S..

#6 There are now about 7.25 million less jobs in America than when the recession began back in 2007.

#7 The average American family is having a really tough time - Only 45.4% of Americans had a job during 2010. .

#8 Only 66.8% of American men had a job last year- lowest level ever ..

#9 Avg CEO made 343 times more money than the average American

#10 Gas prices five dollars per gallon at gas stations.. $6 gas soon …11-24…]

Key Afghan aid programs delayed (Washington Post) [ Strategy? Critical time? Seems we’ve heard that song before. And, yet another nation and innocent lives destroyed for no good reason … and, pervasively corrupt and defacto bankrupt america … winning hearts and minds …NOT! … Petraeus to helm more-militarized CIA (Washington Post) [ I personally unequivocally believe there has already been a defacto coup d’etat in america. Drudgereport: Pentagon Warns Obama Against Deeper Defense Cuts ... (And where is it going to come from ... we've already had in pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt, war crimes nation america a defacto coup d'etat) ... Ron Paul: After ‘CIA coup,’ agency ‘runs military’ US House Rep. Ron Paul says the CIA has has in effect carried out a “coup” against the US government, and the intelligence agency needs to be “taken out.” I also personally believe there has been a defacto coup d’etat which has manifested in various substantial, blatant, brazened frauds, ie., wall street, missing 360 tons of $100 bills in Iraq, war profiteering, etc., without any fear of prosecution, and of course concomitant decline for u.s. as the treasury is looted. But I also believe its scope is beyond just the CIA with many complicit within the corrupted 3 branches of u.s. government (fed judges, us attorneys, illegal system, etc.) plus the military and private big money, ie., Goldman Sachs / wall street men, etc… http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm

Top Mexican Drug Lord: I Trafficked Cocaine For The U.S. Government .. CIA torture jet that crashed with four tons on cocaine on board back in 2007 has told the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Illinois in Chicago that he has been working as a U.S. government asset for years. . Rendition: Where the War on Terror Meets the War on Drugs Henningsen | ... I’ve experienced the corrupt inter-relationship of the government (all 3 corrupt branches) and the illegal drug trade / obstruction of justice / bribery first hand, particularly the courts / u.s. attorneys offices (ie., alito – now u.s. supreme court justice – quid pro quo for his complicity / cover-up), feds

… “torture taxis” – used by the CIA to move captives seized in its kidnapping or “extraordinary rendition” operations through Gatwick and other airports in the EU being simultaneously used for drug distribution .. A Gulfstream II jet aircraft N9875A identified by the British Government and the European Parliament as being involved in this traffic crashed in Mexico…” In 2004, another torture taxi crashed in a field in Nicaragua with a ton of cocaine aboard… Mexican soldiers found ..132 bags containing 3.3 metric tons of cocaine. .. was one of the very same planes chartered to the CIA for the rendition of suspected terrorists prisoners…’]

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