Al Peia's Blog: May 24, 2011

Business / Economic / Financial

[ This link to a somewhat more cumulative blog posts page will precede current days news since most all topics remain current in terms of impact and longer-term effect and can be searched by topical index term more easily. The same is provided since the blog site http://alpeiablog.blogspot.com has just been censored as to size by google which is typical for google as nsa / cia / gov’t shill as more are becoming aware of. The same is true for microsoft, another co. that’s seen their best days and relies on the government to maintain their monopoly. Up to now the better page http://www.scribd.com/alpeia is provided for ease of formatting and clarity thereby while the Washington Post page is the real deal but without formatting http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp- srv/community/mypost/index.html?plckPersonaPage=PersonaComments&plckUserId=alpeia&newspaperUserId=alpeia (Only up to 3-11-11-you must be logged in - (Washington Post) [ Comments COMMENTS ARE CLOSED WHILE WE UPGRADE OUR SYSTEMS ] the comments are no longer archived on their site ) . The following is the cumulative archive of blog posts / topics for 2010 as the new year starts anew (and archived by quarter): http://albertpeia.com/December312010postsarchive.htm or PDF formatted version
http://albertpeia.com/December312010postsarchive.pdf ]

Top Democrats criticize Obama’s Israel policy Now the president — whom critics often accuse of employing a play-it-safe governing style in which he waits for others to take the lead — is largely isolated politically in raising the issue of 1967 boundaries. (Washington Post) [ What policy … to him, just words … more b***s*** . I’ve thus far refrained from commenting on what I’ve anticipated to be ‘just more of the same’; empty rhetoric. Pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt america makes the wrong choice at every turn, ensuring in every way, decline and fall; self-destructive, self-defeating. Make no mistake, and let me reiterate, that substantially underrated President General Eisenhower would have put American interests first and the current debacle would never have occurred in the first instance … see, ie., http://albertpeia.com , historical documentation, from website: http://www.ameu.org ‘Lest We Forget The Israeli lobby in Washington has successfully influenced the U.S. Congress to give billions of non-repayable dollars each year to Israel on the premise that Israel's loyalty and strategic importance to the United States make it an ally worthy of such unprecedented consideration. Is it ? In his Farewell Address, George Washington warned Americans to avoid a passionate attachment to any one nation because it promotes "the illusion of an imaginary common interest in cases where no real common interest exists." In 1948, U.S. Secretary of Defense James Forrestal, an opponent of the creation of a Jewish state in Palestine, warned that, even though failure to go along with the Zionists might cost President Truman the states of New York, Pennsylvania, and California, it was about time that somebody should pay some consideration to whether we might not lose the United States. Israeli actions over the past 53 years involving U.S. interests in the Middle East seriously challenge the "strategic asset" premise of the Israeli lobby. Some of these actions are compiled in the list that follows: …’ ] Netanyahu lays out vision for Mideast peace (Washington Post) [ Vision? Don’t make me laugh! The guy’s blind; and a ward and provocateur at america’s substantial cost and detriment. ]

Poll: More fear U.S. debt than default Whether or not Congress raises the debt limit, majority of Americans are worried about the consequences. (Washington Post) [ How ‘bout all of the above! “Both Parties And The White House Are Advocating A US Default” Zero Hedge | David Stockman, one of the few voices of fiscal prudence, debated US insolvency.

David Stockman: “Both Parties And The White House Are Advocating A US Default” Last week David Stockman was on Tom Keene, making the usual media rounds (sometimes we marvel at his patience and endurance), as one of the few voices of fiscal prudence available to TV producers who seek to hold a balanced debate on the topic of US insolvency.

Stop Raising the Debt Ceiling Ron Paul | When our creditors finally wise up and cut us off, we will be forced to face economic realities whether we want to or not. Harry Dent: “Major Crash” Coming for Stocks, Commodities Already Topping Out Market Downturn Approaching; Go Long the Ultra Shorts? White ‘.. consistently bad economic .. Following is a brief list (mostly from Yahoo Finance‘s Economic Calendar) of troubling news: …1-20…’ This is an especially great opportunity to sell / take profits while you still can since there's much worse to come! Remember: ‘Sell in May and go away! …

America Is a Failed State Because It Won’t Prosecute Financial Crime Washington’s Blog | It’s now mainstream news that none of the big financial criminals have been prosecuted. This is the grim economic reality [ http://albertpeia.com/grimreality.htm ]. Selling In May Is Very Good Advice This Year Harding Equity Valuations Are Forming the Second Biggest Bubble in U.S. History Kaspar ... According to Yale University’s Dr. Robert Shiller, the market is now 41% overvalued …only time the markets have been more overvalued .. 1929 & tech bubble. http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2011/4/12/saupload_cape_thumb1.png PRECHTER: We're Still In A Massive Bear Market And Stocks Will Crash To New Lows Equity Valuations Are Forming the Second Biggest Bubble in U.S. History Kaspar 'Despite the terrible economic performance of the past ten years, equity valuations are the 2nd largest bubble in U.S. history... According to Yale University’s Dr. Robert Shiller, the market is now 41% overvalued according to this valuation metric. The only time the markets have been more overvalued was a few brief months in 1929 and the tech bubble

... growth in earnings have been artificially manufactured...

· The change in accounting rules for the financial sector by FASB has generated massive “false” account profits beginning in 2009…’

Treasury to tap pensions to fund government (WP) 24 Signs Of Economic Decline In America States face shortfall for retirees (WP) (The frauds on wall street et als should be criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed. ]

In Libya, robbery funds the revolution Cash-strapped rebels resort to an unorthodox tactic — a bank robbery — to help fund fight against Gaddafi (Washington Post) [ Ah! Right! The americanization of the revolution … robbery in any form is something that america knows a lot about … Some have already talked about this theft as being a prime reason for this conflict: NATO in Libya: Besides the Oil, Is It Also a Gold Robbery? The IMF data show Libya’s reserves to be 4.6 million ounces, a figure of nearly 144 tons. At current market prices the value is over $6bn. Financial Heist of the Century: Confiscating Libya’s Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWF) The objective of the war against Libya is not just its oil reserves (now estimated at 60 billion barrels), which are the greatest in Africa and whose extraction costs are among the lowest in the world, nor the natural gas reserves of which are estimated at about 1,500 billion cubic meters. Libya: All About Oil, or All About Banking? I have never before heard of a central bank being created in just a matter of weeks out of a popular uprising. This suggests we have a bit more than a rag tag bunch of rebels running around and that there are some pretty sophisticated influences. Libyan War Gets Weird: Defending the Indefensible Even those who have studied for years the criminal consolidation of this planet under the global corporate-financier oligarchy may be noticing that the war in Libya is turning into something new and unprecedented. French, British leaders meet about Libya (Washington Post) [ Wow! Talk about sounding like a plan ... and all this time we thought they already had done that. After all, they must conserve their resources; you know, that war-prone nato alliance comprised of members almost to a nation defacto bankrupt, striving to emulate 'lead war nation' america's defacto bankrupt status. ] The countries struggled Wednesday to come up with new tactics to topple Moammar Gaddafi without resorting to further Western military intervention.

Libya: Increased Airstrikes, Ground Troops, Contractors, Civilians Killed, Deadly DU Munitions – Can We Call This A War Yet? The globalist coalition refers to it as ‘kinetic military action’, yet as more civilians are killed in NATO bombings, and with experts adamant that deadly Depleted Uranium weapons are being used by Western forces, the conflict in Libya looks a hell of a lot like the occupations of Afghanistan and Iraq all over again.

‘Depleted uranium’s toxic legacy to poison Libya for 40 years’ Military experts are accusing coalition forces in Libya of using depleted uranium in their air strikes. The deadly substance can cause cancer and physical mutations in those who come into close contact with it.

63 percent of people killed in Iraq war were civilians: report Xinhua | U.S.-led wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have been causing huge civilian casualties. ]

Fight over feral alley cats divides feline lovers (Washington Post) [ My love of cats, big and small, is no mystery; but indeed is beyond the scope of this comment. I’ve had and loved neutered (not by my decision / action) as well as my most recent ‘macho’ (non-neutered) cat (I couldn’t bring myself to ‘cutting his b***s off’ as advised by a girl I was seeing at the time … kind of a ‘golden rule’ thing … and knowing ‘he’d never forgive me’ … his loss to me, part of the RICO scenario, though not part of my damages, is among the forever unforgivable parts of what occurred therein). As for ‘taking a position’, as a noumenon, I question the premise of any life at all in a meaningful sense in Washington d.c.; and hence, not the best comparison for setting policy. Unlike dogs, you will not see cats attacking and killing babies, etc.. So, I conclude that in such dire circumstances (d.c.) where a trade-up is beneficial, such seems, though rightfully exceptional, a sometimes favorable course, if the only choice; which assumes procreation and continued growth of the species is not impinged upon. Therefore, this argues for un-neutered moves to better environs. ]

GOP rejecting ‘root-canal economics’ The debate about the impact of immediate budget cuts on a fragile economy is at the core of a showdown over how and when to trim the deficit. While Republicans say a swift spending cut doesn’t have to be painful, many economists warn it comes at a cost. (Washington Post) [ Economists? You mean the ones who helped get us here in the first place, including ‘no-recession-helicopter-ben-b.s.-bernanke’? Root canals? So what! That’s what novacaine’s for … This is an especially great opportunity to sell / take profits while you still can since there's much worse to come! Remember: ‘Sell in May and go away! ‘ … El-Erian: “Financial Repression” In the Form of a Negative Real Rate of Return for Savers Is Coming to America Pimco co-chair El-Erian is saying that the major flaws in the financial system will not be addressed, the government will keep on printing money, and that the inflation-adjusted return on investments for most Americans will be negative. Stock Market: 4 Current Warning Signs Navin ‘…1) The 5-year high in the level of insider corporate stock sales is telling. At 565 sells for every 1 buy, it’s never been higher. Yes, it’s normal for insiders to be selling some of their stocks so they can buy new yachts and some of this is pre-planned. But that ratio — which has spiked recently — is extraordinarily high, one might even say off-the-chart. 2) Professor Shiller at Yale figures that the present price-to-earnings ratio for the Standard & Poor’s 500 is in the area of 26. The historical average is about 16. 3) The failure of the financial sector to keep up is a significant negative divergence for the entire market. 4) Key market leaders are rolling over in price... ‘

Market's Risk/Reward Ratio Remains Poor McCurdy ‘The S&P 500 index has been in a secular bear market since 2000 and our Secular Trend Score (STS) indicates that we remain in the middle stage of its development (click to enlarge images):

http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2011/5/14/668911-130540693393499-Erik-McCurdy_origin.png

This is an especially great opportunity to sell / take profits while you still can since there's much worse to come! Remember: ‘Sell in May and go away! …

1Q bank profits up, revenue down Profits in the first quarter were the best in four years, but the industry isn’t back on its feet yet. (Washington Post) [ ‘Simple trick’ that you’re paying for whether you like it or not … ie., Dave's Daily 'If you can keep interest rates this low this long, its inevitable cheap financing can allow companies to start cobbling each other up. Further Ben's policies allow companies like IBM to sell bonds at 1% and buy back shares with the proceeds (total paper bubble-scam). POMO is occurring almost daily and Primary Dealers can buy back their shares and pay dividends with what essentially is taxpayer money—‘ … America Is a Failed State Because It Won’t Prosecute Financial Crime Washington’s Blog | It’s now mainstream news that none of the big financial criminals have been prosecuted. This is the grim economic reality [ http://albertpeia.com/grimreality.htm ]. Selling In May Is Very Good Advice This Year Harding / April Is a Good Time to Sell Adler Equity Valuations Are Forming the Second Biggest Bubble in U.S. History Kaspar ... According to Yale University’s Dr. Robert Shiller, the market is now 41% overvalued …only time the markets have been more overvalued .. 1929 & tech bubble. http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2011/4/12/saupload_cape_thumb1.png PRECHTER: We're Still In A Massive Bear Market And Stocks Will Crash To New Lows Equity Valuations Are Forming the Second Biggest Bubble in U.S. History Kaspar 'Despite the terrible economic performance of the past ten years, equity valuations are the 2nd largest bubble in U.S. history... According to Yale University’s Dr. Robert Shiller, the market is now 41% overvalued according to this valuation metric. The only time the markets have been more overvalued was a few brief months in 1929 and the tech bubble

... growth in earnings have been artificially manufactured...

· The change in accounting rules for the financial sector by FASB has generated massive “false” account profits beginning in 2009…’

Treasury to tap pensions to fund government (WP) 24 Signs Of Economic Decline In America ‘The US is in the middle of a devastating long-term economic decline’ ] States face shortfall for retirees (WP) (The frauds on wall street et als should be criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed.

Top 3 Reasons Markets were Down on Goldman’s Oil Scare May 24, 2011 Wall St. Cheat Sheet ‘Markets closed down on Wall Street: DJI -0.2% SP500 -0.08% Nasdaq -0.46% Gold 0.61% Oil 1.86% . Markets started in the green, sold off into the red, made a honorable attempt to rally end of day, but sold off again into the bell. On the commodities front, Oil (NYSE:USO) was volatile in the afternoon, but managed to rally to $99.52 on the day. Gold (NYSE:GLD) held $1,500 again as debt scares haunted investors, and Silver (NYSE:SLV) got back to it’s old ways adding over 4%.

Today’s markets were down because:

1) Market police continue to blow whistles . Yesterday Italy (NYSE:EWI) took a credit outlook rating cut from Standard & Poor’s (NYSE:MHP), and today Moody’s (NYSE:MCO) the streak alive by threatening to take the downgrade sword to the UK banks. As if that wasn’t enough for bankers to skip dessert, New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman got his investigation on by expanding his mortgage fraud probe to the bond insurers: Ambac Financial Group (PINK:ABKFQ), MBIA Inc. (NYSE:MBI), Syncora Holdings Ltd. (PINK:SYCRF), and Assured Guaranty Ltd. (NYSE:AGO).

2) Oil rallied on Goldman’s flip-flop . In April, Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) screamed “Sell Oil Now!” Today they went Chinatown on us and shouted “Buy Oil Now!” Regardless, on days when Oil (NYSE:USO) rises strongly, the econ bears take the stage warning of higher gas prices and weaker consumer sales — a good reason to sell stocks. But don’t tell them about airline woes because canceled flights from the volcano are sure to weigh on fuel demand in the near future.

3) IPOs were hot, the NASDAQ was not . Shorts got their faces melted off in LinkedIn (NYSE:LNKD) at 2PM, while white hot Russian search engine Yandex (NASDAQ:YNDX) popped 55% at its initial public offering and Glencore gave underwriters a reason to cheer.

Bonus: Results are in. Here’s Your Cheat Sheet to this Quarter’s Dow 30 Earnings …’

Harry Dent: “Major Crash” Coming for Stocks, Commodities Already Topping Out

Shades of 2008: A Greek Default Won't Be 'Contained': Mauldin Task ‘Financial markets shuddered Monday as fears over Europe's sovereign debt crisis resurfaced yet again. Still, the Dow closed off its worst levels of the session amid the conventional view that Greece's debt crisis can be managed.

But Endgame author John Mauldin says Greece won't be any more "contained" than subprime mortgages were in 2008.

"It's not something that stops at the European waters," Mauldin says. "Just like the subprime crisis didn't stop in California…I'm worried this one has a lot of contagion and it'll affect the world."

As for the mechanism for that contagion, Mauldin lays out the following scenario in the event of a Greek default:

- Greece has to nationalize its banks.
- Greek citizens are forced to take deposits in drachmas, rather than euros.
- Greek consumers and businesses then default on all debts because of the resulting haircut, which he estimates at 50%.
- French and German banks are forced to take write-downs on their Greek exposure.
- The ECB is forced to take a write-down on its exposure to Greek debt.

Such a scenario would not go unnoticed in Portugal or, especially, Ireland, where voters have already shown their displeasure with having to pay for bank bailouts, Mauldin notes.

Meanwhile, U.S. banks have written credit-default swaps to European banks. Most of these positions are hedged but "you're only balanced as long as both of those counterparties are good," Mauldin says. "If you have a bad counterparty, now you're out of balance."

If you'll recall, it wasn't the failing subprime mortgages per se that caused the real crisis in 2008, but banks refusal to trade with other banks. It was this "counterparty risk" which caused the financial system to seize up, which is why policymakers here and in Europe are doing everything and anything to prevent a repeat.’

Market Outlook: Proceed With Caution Brown ‘ The market began the week down, with the S&P 500 closing at 1317. After three consecutive down-weeks, the S&P 500 has lost -4.5% from its May 2nd high and now hovers below its 30-day and 50-day moving averages in a generally negative technical position.

It seems investors finally took stock of the problems lurking outside of Wall Street, specifically Europe’s sovereign debt problems and China’s slowing growth.(Daniel Sckolnik’s posting today on the Sabrient blog (”ETF Periscope: Spain Protests Just May Cause the Running Away of the Bulls“) presents a cogent overview of Europe’s debt problem and paints the dire picture in Spain very well.)

Of course, Europe’s and China’s problems strengthened the dollar, which has battered commodity stocks and the market in general over the past year. While the dollar was pretty much flat last week, it is up 6% from its recent low. Oil prices strengthened a bit but remain down 10% from their recent high.

Other culprits added to the negative mood. Disappointing earnings releases from major companies like Cisco (CSCO), Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), Disney (DIS), Staples (SPLS), and the Gap (GAP) reflected the continued weakness in corporate earnings. Last week’s economic news cast a shadow over our struggling recovery. The Philly Fed report and Empire State index revealed a slowing in the growth of the manufacturing sector; housing starts and existing home sales came in lower than expected; and last week’s initial jobless claims remained stubbornly over 400,000.

Market stats. Last week, Mid-cap Value was the only positive cap/style, up +0.3%. Small-cap Growth, investors’ darling of the past year, was the worst performer again last week, down -0.9%, as traders continued to take profits in this space. (Here are the market stats.)

Energy led the sectors, up +1.3%. Also positive were Utilities (+0.9%), Transportation (+0.8%), Basic Industries (+0.7%), and Consumer Non-Durables (+0.3%). The worst performer was Consumer Durables, down -2.2%, with Capital Goods and Technology joining in the down-more-than-1% group. Technology’s poor performance was no doubt heightened by the disappointing earnings from Hewlett-Packard.

Our forward looking sector model continues to favor Basic Industries, followed closely by Energy, Health Care, and Capital Goods.

Coming up. This week, we will get more hard data about our economy. On Tuesday, new home sales will tell us whether the housing market is continuing to flail; Wednesday, durable goods will be closely watched; Thursday, initial jobless claims will try to break back under the 400K mark, and we’ll get our second look at first quarter GDP. On Friday, personal spending and Michigan sentiment chime in with their numbers.

It won’t take much more negativity to push the S&P 500 below its current support level of 1306, and if that is breached, 1257 is our next hope for a refuge.

What the market wants, frankly, is for the EU to bring its sovereign debt situation under control and for corporate America to resume strong earnings, which we won’t know until early July. All in all, I would suggest that we proceed with caution.

4 Stock Ideas for this Market

This week, I started with the GARP (Growth At a Reasonable Price) preset search in MyStockFinder. I then included Buys (in addition to Strong Buys) and increased the weighting in Long-Term Technicals. Here are four stock ideas from some of the higher-ranked sectors that look intriguing:

Ball Corp. (BLL) – Basic Industries
GT Solar (SOLR) – Energy
II-VI, Inc. (IIVI) – Capital Goods
LKQ Corp. (LKQX) – Consumer Durables’

Market Downturn Approaching; Go Long the Ultra Shorts? White ‘It is time to worry about a market downturn. There has been almost consistently bad economic news reported in the U.S. in the last week. Following is a brief list (mostly from Yahoo Finance‘s Economic Calendar) of troubling news:

The Trade Balance for March was worse than expected at -$48.20B vs. an expected -$47.00B (the previous month’s was -$45.40B). Pundits are speculating that this will result in a lowering of the Q1 GDP estimate, which is due out May 26.
The Mississippi Flood is the worst in a century-- this alone will depress the Q2 GDP. Shipping down the Mississippi has slowed (or sometimes stopped). Huge numbers of casinos have closed. Farms and towns have been flooded.
The PPI missed at 0.80% vs. an expected 0.60%. The Core PPI missed at 0.30% vs. an expected 0.20%. Also, the continued large spread between the CPI and PPI numbers means that many companies are eating a good part of the quickly increasing input costs. This should hurt margins going forward.
Retail Sales (MoM) missed at +0.50% vs. an expected +0.60%.
Some good news Friday had the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index beat at 72.40 vs. an expected 70.00.
The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index missed at 11.90 vs. an expected 19.60.
The TIC Net Long-Term Transactions missed at $24.00B vs. an expected $57.70B.
The NAHB Housing Market Index missed at 16 vs. an expected 17.
Housing Starts missed at 0.52M vs. an expected 0.57M.
Building Permits missed at 0.55M vs. an expected 0.59M.
The Capacity Utilization Rate missed at 76.90% vs. an expected 77.70%.
Industrial Production (MoM) missed at 0.00% vs. an expected +0.50%.
Several blue chip companies such as Cisco (CSCO) and Hewlett Packard (HPQ) gave very weak guidance going forward, as though they are expecting a soft spot in the economy.
The Fed Minutes indicated that they had considered ending QE2 before its stated end, but decided to proceed since it was so close to the end. The Fed also talked about how to withdraw stimulus. There seemed to be no serious consideration of a QE3. There are only a few crumbs left of the manna of the market hypers (QE2).
Congress has allowed the debt ceiling to be exceeded. Geithner is now borrowing from Peter to pay Paul, and August 2nd is the day that he says this must stop. The Republicans are using the threat of a default as leverage to get concessions on many of the spending cuts they want. They will get spending cuts, which means tightening! Tightening tends to push the equities markets down. Hopefully the U.S. will not default.
The USD has been rallying. The above mentioned tightening should help the USD rally. If the USD continues to strengthen, that could cause an unwind of the USD carry trade. This would translate into selling of equities and commodities. A stronger USD would mean commodity prices would likely fall.
The Initial Jobless Claims were 409K vs. an expected 420K, but the previous week‘s number was revised upward to 438K. While it was pleasant to see a beat for a change, the overall trend is still bad. The 409K means the total increase in Initial Jobless Claims in the four weeks since the end of the last Nonfarm Payrolls surveys’ data period has been 159K. Additionally, the 68K jobs from the one-time McDonald’s (MCD) hiring spree that padded the last Nonfarm Payrolls report will not be there to prop up the next report on the first Friday of June. This means that the next report will be shy a total of 227K jobs. The Nonfarm Payrolls number is likely to be a big disappointment.
Existing Home Sales dipped in April to 5.05M vs. an expected 5.22M and a previous 5.10M.
The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index missed terribly at 3.90 vs. an expected 20.00 and a previous 18.50. This is truly ominous when combined with the terrible NY Empire State Manufacturing Index miss (see above).
The Leading Indicators for April missed at -0.3% vs. an expected 0.0%.

If the U.S. news wasn’t bad enough, the EU credit crisis is alive and well. The scuttlebutt on Greece is that it is no longer a matter of “if” Greece will default (give a haircut), but “when“. Ireland may have some of its banks give haircuts to debt holders. Portugal’s bailout has been okayed in principal, although Portugal still needs to elect a government to accept it. That government also needs to approve the necessary austerity measures to qualify for it. The previous government dissolved because it wouldn’t approve such measures just a couple of months ago. Portugal is predicted to go back into recession for 2011 and 2012 based on the harshness of the necessary austerity package.

In Japan, the economy shrank quarter over quarter in Jan-Mar by -0.90% vs. an expected -0.50%. Year over year Japan's GDP declined more than expected by -3.7%. This is the second consecutive quarter of decline. Japan is technically back in a recession. Its GDP Price Index (YoY) was down -1.90% (deflation). Its Industrial Production (MoM) was down a horrendous -15.50% vs. an expected -15.10%. Its Household Confidence missed at 33.40 vs. an expected 37.30. Public debt has reached 200% of GDP. Things are so bad there that ECRI has forecast a global summer slowdown.

Key Market Movers for the Coming Week: No Easy Escape From Greek Contagion

The 'Real' Mega-Bears Short ‘It's time again for the weekend update of our "Real" Mega-Bears, an inflation-adjusted overlay of three secular bear markets. It aligns the current S&P 500f rom the top of the Tech Bubble in March 2000, the Dow in of 1929, and the Nikkei 225 from its 1989 bubble high.

Click [chart] for a larger image

This chart is consistent with my preference for real (inflation-adjusted) analysis of long-term market behavior. The nominal all-time high in the index occurred in October 2007, but when we adjust for inflation, the "real" all-time high for the S&P 500 occurred in March 2000.

Here is a nominal version to help clarify the impact of inflation and deflation, which varied significantly across these three markets.

See also my alternate version, which charts the comparison from the 2007 nominal all-time high in the S&P 500. This series also includes the Nasdaq from the 2000 Tech Bubble peak.

Click [chart] for a larger image ‘

Weekly Indicators: The Slowdown Has Been Confirmed

“Both Parties And The White House Are Advocating A US Default” Zero Hedge | David Stockman, one of the few voices of fiscal prudence, debated US insolvency.

Stop Raising the Debt Ceiling Ron Paul | When our creditors finally wise up and cut us off, we will be forced to face economic realities whether we want to or not.

Gold, silver coins to be legal currency in Utah From the Trenches | It had to happen soon or later.

Fed’s Duke: “America’s Poor Have To Make A Choice Between Paying Their Gas And Their Mortgage” And another pearl of wisdom from the Fed’s uberthinkers, in this case Elizabeth Duke: “the recent increase in gasoline prices has affected consumer choices in housing and other purchases, big and small.

Stop Raising the Debt Ceiling The federal government once again has reached the limit of its legal ability to borrow money, meaning it cannot issue new Treasury debt without action by Congress to increase the debt ceiling limit.

The Decline of the Millionaire Last week we blogged about John Law, an infamous character that helped France find and lose illusory wealth in the span of a few short bubble years. During his infamous heyday, a new term came about—one that described the amount of wealth that was floating around.

David Stockman: “Both Parties And The White House Are Advocating A US Default” Last week David Stockman was on Tom Keene, making the usual media rounds (sometimes we marvel at his patience and endurance), as one of the few voices of fiscal prudence available to TV producers who seek to hold a balanced debate on the topic of US insolvency.

This is an especially great opportunity to sell / take profits while you still can since there's much worse to come! Remember: ‘Sell in May and go away! ‘ … El-Erian: “Financial Repression” In the Form of a Negative Real Rate of Return for Savers Is Coming to America Pimco co-chair El-Erian is saying that the major flaws in the financial system will not be addressed, the government will keep on printing money, and that the inflation-adjusted return on investments for most Americans will be negative. Stock Market: 4 Current Warning Signs Navin ‘…1) The 5-year high in the level of insider corporate stock sales is telling. At 565 sells for every 1 buy, it’s never been higher. Yes, it’s normal for insiders to be selling some of their stocks so they can buy new yachts and some of this is pre-planned. But that ratio — which has spiked recently — is extraordinarily high, one might even say off-the-chart. 2) Professor Shiller at Yale figures that the present price-to-earnings ratio for the Standard & Poor’s 500 is in the area of 26. The historical average is about 16. 3) The failure of the financial sector to keep up is a significant negative divergence for the entire market. 4) Key market leaders are rolling over in price... ‘

http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2011/5/14/668911-130540693393499-Erik-McCurdy_origin.png

This is an especially great opportunity to sell / take profits while you still can since there's much worse to come! Remember: ‘Sell in May and go away! …

America Is a Failed State Because It Won’t Prosecute Financial Crime Washington’s Blog | It’s now mainstream news that none of the big financial criminals have been prosecuted. This is the grim economic reality [ http://albertpeia.com/grimreality.htm ]. Selling In May Is Very Good Advice This Year Harding / April Is a Good Time to Sell Adler Equity Valuations Are Forming the Second Biggest Bubble in U.S. History Kaspar ... According to Yale University’s Dr. Robert Shiller, the market is now 41% overvalued …only time the markets have been more overvalued .. 1929 & tech bubble. http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2011/4/12/saupload_cape_thumb1.png PRECHTER: We're Still In A Massive Bear Market And Stocks Will Crash To New Lows Equity Valuations Are Forming the Second Biggest Bubble in U.S. History Kaspar 'Despite the terrible economic performance of the past ten years, equity valuations are the 2nd largest bubble in U.S. history... According to Yale University’s Dr. Robert Shiller, the market is now 41% overvalued according to this valuation metric. The only time the markets have been more overvalued was a few brief months in 1929 and the tech bubble

... growth in earnings have been artificially manufactured...

· The change in accounting rules for the financial sector by FASB has generated massive “false” account profits beginning in 2009…’

Treasury to tap pensions to fund government (WP) 24 Signs Of Economic Decline In America ‘The US is in the middle of a devastating long-term economic decline’ ] States face shortfall for retirees (WP) (The frauds on wall street et als should be criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed. Dave's Daily 'If you can keep interest rates this low this long, its inevitable cheap financing can allow companies to start cobbling each other up. Further Ben's policies allow companies like IBM to sell bonds at 1% and buy back shares with the proceeds (total paper bubble-scam). POMO is occurring almost daily and Primary Dealers can buy back their shares and pay dividends with what essentially is taxpayer money-- … an especially great opportunity to sell / take profits while you still can since there's much worse to come!

ECONOMIC CRISIS ARCHIVE

(5-24-11) Dow 12,356 -25 Nasdaq 2,746 -12 S&P 500 1,316 -1 [CLOSE- OIL $99.59 (-54% for year 2008) (RECORD TRADING HIGH $147.27) GAS $3.95 (reg. gas in LAND OF FRUITS AND NUTS $4.26 REG./ $4.36 MID-GRADE/$4.46 PREM./ $4.55 DIESELL) / GOLD $1,525 (+24% for year 2009) / SILVER $36.58 (+47% for year 2009) PLATINUM $1,767 (+56% for year 2009) Metal News for the Day / DOLLAR= .71 EURO, 82 YEN, .62 POUND STERLING, ETC. (How low can you go - LOWER)/ Interest Rates: http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield 10 YR NOTE YIELD 3.13% …..… AP Business Highlights ...Yahoo Market Update… T. Rowe Price Weekly Recap – Stocks / Bonds / Currencies - Domestic / International This Is a Secular Bear Market and The End of Buy and Hold … and Hope The bull market that never was/were beyond wall street b.s. when measured in gold ‘WORST ECONOMIC COLLAPSE EVER’ Must Read Economic / Financial Data This Depression is just beginning The coming depression… thecomingdepression.net The Next Wave of Collapse is Coming Sooner than you think Sliding Back Into the Great Depression ABSOLUTELY, ABSURDLY, RIDICULOUS! SELL / TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME!

National / World

Smoking Gun: Gov’t moles alerted investigator of planted Obama birth certificate 2 months before release Aaron Dykes & Alex Jones | Dr. Corsi was alerted to a plot to release a fake 2 months before President Obama released his purported long-form birth certificate.

Alex Jones’ Audio Blog: Owner’s Manual on Reality Infowars | Alex sums up the true scientific tyranny who criminally dominate this planet.

Alex Jones Endorses New Film Exposing Secret Banking System Infowars.com | A hard hitting look at how the problems we have today are nothing new.

Peter Fonda Issues Threat Against Obama: Is There a DHS Double Standard? Kurt Nimmo | Actor called president “a f—— traitor” and said his grand kids might take him out.

TSA launches groping at high school proms, other public places TheAlexJonesChannel | Terrorists may strike anywhere, so security goons must be everywhere, or so the logic goes.

Corsi To File Criminal Charges Against White House Over Obama Birth Certificate Paul Joseph Watson | Clear Channel radio station scrubs interview from audio archives

Exclusive: Obama set-up, caught in birth certificate sting Dr. Corsi was alerted to a plot to release a fake 2 months before President Obama released his purported long-form birth certificate.

Alex Jones On TSA Groping at High School Prom, Other Public Places Alex Jones addresses the outrageous expansion of the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) into high schools to screen students going to prom and graduation.

Fluoride Hoax Exploding: Alex Jones Interviews Dr. Paul Connett Following a successful anti-fluoride campaign in Canada, Dr. Paul Connett, Professor of Chemistry at St. Lawrence University in New York, visited the Infowars.com command center in Austin, Texas, to make appearance on the Alex Jones Show and tape “Deadly Fluoride: Hoax on the Run!”

White House Hires ‘Terminator’ To ‘Squash Negative Stories’ About Obama In a bid to ‘squash negative stories’ about Barack Obama that appear on the Internet, the White House has hired a dedicated propagandist whose role will be to savage people who tell “lies” about the President, in a chilling reminder of how prosecutors threatened people with jail time during the 2008 campaign if they criticized Obama.

Government Internet Takeover Continues Apace Moves to place restrictions and controls on the internet by Western governments are gathering pace, with the US setting the standard as the Department of Homeland Security seized yet more domain names over the weekend and shut down several websites under the guise of piracy and copyright regulations.

Feds to Mandate Black Box on all New Cars The feds will mandate next month that all new cars be fitted with a black box, according to news reports. So-called black boxes record information about speed, seat belt use and brake application.

70,000 more should evacuate after Fukushima: Watchdog Seventy thousand people living beyond the 20-kilometre no-go zone around Fukushima should be evacuated because of radioactivity deposited by the crippled nuclear plant, a watchdog said.

Outrage as Japan lifts radiation limit for kids Outraged parents have held a rowdy demonstration outside Japan’s education ministry in Tokyo to protest against the government’s decision to weaken nuclear safety standards in schools.

Japan’s TEPCO admits further nuclear reactor meltdowns The operator of Japan’s tsunami-hit Fukushima nuclear power plant on Tuesday said it believed fuel had partially melted inside three reactors, as long suspected by experts.

Corsi To File Criminal Charges Against White House Over Obama Birth Certificate Jerome Corsi has told a Cincinnati radio station that he is preparing to file criminal charges against the White House for producing a fraudulent birth certificate, as the controversial author of Where’s the Birth Certificate? closes in on the people within Obama’s inner circle he claims were behind the hoax.

Reconciliation (Washington Post) Recap: Budget graphs and budget tables; our fiscal future basically depends on whether this works; and why did Republicans support a budget they knew was politically toxic? [ Budget graphs and budget tables? Don’t ‘bet the ranch’ on them … oh, wait … everybody already did … the ranch is indeed upside down (worth less than what’s owed) … the ‘new american dream / nightmare / fantasy’ … Market Downturn Approaching; Go Long the Ultra Shorts? White ‘It is time to worry about a market downturn. There has been almost consistently bad economic news ..:

1. The Trade Balance for March was worse than expected ..will result in a lowering of the Q1 GDP estimate, which is due out May 26.

2. The Mississippi Flood is the worst in a century-- this alone will depress the Q2 GDP..

3. The PPI missed at 0.80% vs. an expected 0.60%. The Core PPI missed at 0.30% vs. an expected 0.20%. .. This should hurt margins going forward.

4. Retail Sales (MoM) missed at +0.50% vs. an expected +0.60%.

5. .. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index beat at 72.40 vs. an expected 70.00.

6. The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index missed at 11.90 vs. an expected 19.60.

7. The TIC Net Long-Term Transactions missed at $24.00B vs. an expected $57.70B.

8. The NAHB Housing Market Index missed at 16 vs. an expected 17.

9. Housing Starts missed at 0.52M vs. an expected 0.57M.

10. Building Permits missed at 0.55M vs. an expected 0.59M.

11. The Capacity Utilization Rate missed at 76.90% vs. an expected 77.70%.

12. Industrial Production (MoM) missed at 0.00% vs. an expected +0.50%.

13. Several blue chip companies such as Cisco (CSCO) and Hewlett Packard (HPQ) gave very weak guidance going forward, as though they are expecting a soft spot in the economy.

14. The Fed Minutes indicated that they had considered ending QE2 before its stated end, but decided to proceed since it was so close to the end..

15. Congress has allowed the debt ceiling to be exceeded. Geithner is now borrowing from Peter to pay Paul, ..

16. The USD has been rallying. The above mentioned tightening should help the USD rally. If the USD continues to strengthen, that could cause an unwind of the USD carry trade. This would translate into selling of equities and commodities. A stronger USD would mean commodity prices would likely fall.

17. The Initial Jobless Claims were 409K vs. an expected 420K, but the previous week‘s number was revised upward to 438K..

18. Existing Home Sales dipped in April to 5.05M vs. an expected 5.22M and a previous 5.10M.

19. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index missed terribly at 3.90 vs. an expected 20.00 ..

20. The Leading Indicators for April missed at -0.3% vs. an expected 0.0%…’ ]

Businesses criticize whistleblower plan (Washington Post) Groups are alarmed about a federal plan to reward company insiders and other tipsters for blowing the whistle on corporate fraud. The SEC is scheduled to vote Wednesday on the far-reaching proposal. [ They would … criticize and be alarmed at such plan which would increase the cost of their bribes from current levels … U.S. probes rely on companies' own inquiries (Washington Post) [ Tried that … doesn’t work in pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt america … the last few and ongoing crises are a testament to the failure of that approach … ] PostLeadership: Should money buy information? (Washington Post) [ It should, particularly since we know the converse is only too true in pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt america … Obama adopts the Bush Doctrine The May 19 Middle East speech, annotated. (Washington Post) [ Yeah! Two nut cases; two failed presidents. The latest case of U.S. paranoia (Los Angeles Times) [ Yeah! This really needs to be said; particularly when you take into account the reality, that while plentiful, american laws are all but meaningless, arbitrarily enforced at best, and ‘federales’ and their supporters (more commonly called bribes, one way or form or another) invariably the worst offenders. Though having but 5% of the world’s population, u.s. has 76% of the world’s serial killers, http://www.albertpeia.com/realifeamericaserialkillers.mpg bankrupt america also spends more on military than all the nations of the world combined... fed employees / contractors, cia, all 3 branches of u.s. gov’t, etc., are included in this evolved american trait of inherent criminality http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm ]:

Focus Is on Obama as Tensions Soar Across Mideast (New York Times) [ Adapt? I don’t think so! I do believe that both nations are regressively but nostalgically trying bring the world back to failed geopolitical paradigms that made the 20th century the bloodiest century, not coincidentally the american century (obviously for israel the latter half century). Yet, such a conditioned psychopathic approach to global matters has led them self-destructively, self-defeatingly, and ineluctably to decline, fall, and as with dinosaurs, extinction, at least in a manner of speaking. Global information exchange at lightning speed has made such throwbacks to a lost era, propaganda, and maladaptive traits foolish at best, deadly at worst. Intelligent people worldwide aren’t buying the obsolete, Orwellian approach fostered by the purveyors of global unrest; viz., israel, america, Orwellian england, etc..; more specifically, diversion of the masses from the glaring failures of leadership, economic and otherwise.

CRIME STATISTICS >(america is No. 1)

Rank	Countries	Amount
# 1	United States:	11,877,218
# 2	United Kingdom:	6,523,706
# 3	Germany:	6,507,394

UPDATE: MORE CLAIMS OF RACE BIAS AT JUSTICE... ‘In emotional and personal testimony, an ex-Justice official who quit over the handling of a voter intimidation case against the New Black Panther Party accused his former employer of instructing attorneys in the civil rights division to ignore cases that involve black defendants and white victims ' Cases against Wall Street lag despite Holder’s vows to target financial fraud WP | Obama has promised to hold Wall Street accountable for the meltdown.
THE OBAMA DECEPTION’ http://albertpeia.com/obamadeceptionhighqualityversion.flv ]

Agents irked by plan to keep Mueller (Washington Post) [ ‘abide by .. tenure limits’ ? I’m more concerned with, and it’s fundamentally more important from the perspective of the FBI’s ‘mission and purpose’, that meaningful law be abided by regarding the following:
October 15, 2010 (*see infra)

Steven M. Martinez, Assistant Director In Charge
Federal Bureau of Investigation, USDOJ
11000 Wilshire Blvd., Suite 1700

Los Angeles, CA 90024

Dear Sir:

I enclose herewith 3 copies of the within DVD rom autorun disk (which will open in your computer’s browser) as per your office’s request as made this day (the disk and contents have been scanned by Avast, McAfee, and Norton which I’ve installed on my computer to prevent viral attacks / infection and are without threat). I also include 1 copy of the DVD as filed with the subject court as referenced therein (which files are also included on the aforesaid 3 disks in a separate folder named ‘112208opocoan’). The (civil) RICO action (as you’re aware, the RICO Act is a criminal statute which provides a civil remedy, including treble damages and attorney fees, as an incentive for private prosecution of said claims probably owing to the fact that the USDOJ seems somewhat overwhelmed and in need of such assistance given the seriousness and prevalence of said violations of law which have a corrupting influence on the process, and which corruption is pervasive). A grievance complaint against Coan was also filed concurrently with the subject action and held in abeyance pending resolution of the action which was illegally dismissed without any supporting law and in contravention of the Order of The Honorable Robert N. Chatigny, Chief Judge, USDC, District Connecticut. The files below the horizontal rule are the referenced documents as filed. (Owing to the damage to the financial interests of both the U.S. and the District of Congresswoman Roybal-Allard, viz., Los Angeles, the Qui Tam provisions of the Federal False Claims Act probably would apply and I would absent resolution seek to refer the within to a firm with expertise in that area of the law with which I am not familiar).

The document in 5 pages under penalty of perjury I was asked to forward to the FBI office in New Haven is probably the best and most concise summary of the case RICO Summary to FBI Under Penalty of Perjury at Their Request (5 pages) [ ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf http://albertpeia.com/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf ].

The correspondence I received from the Congresswoman by way of email attachment (apparent but typical problem with my mail) along with my response thereto is included on the 3 disks as fbicorrespondencereyes.htm . With regard to the calls to the FBI’s LA and New Haven, CT offices: There was one call to the LA office and I was referred to the Long Beach, CA office where I personally met with FBI Agent Jeff Hayes to whom I gave probative evidentiary documents of the money laundering which he confirmed as indicative of same (he was transferred from said office within approximately a month of said meeting and his location was not disclosed to me upon inquiry). The matter was assigned to FBI Agent Ron Barndollar and we remained in touch for in excess of a decade until he abruptly retired (our last conversation prior to his retirement related to the case and parenthetically, Rudy Giuliani whose father I stated had been an enforcer for the mob to which he registered disbelief and requested I prove it, which I did – he served 12 years in prison, aggravated assault/manslaughter? – and no, there is no Chinese wall of separation – Andrew Maloney’s the one that prosecuted gotti).

In contradistinction to the statement in said correspondence, there is a plethora of information including evidence supporting the claims set forth in the RICO VERIFIED COMPLAINT (see infra). Such includes and as set forth in the case, inter alia,

· A judgment had been entered in my favor in the case, United States District Court Case #3:93cv02065(AWT)(USDCJ Alvin Thompson), worth approximately now in excess of $300,000 remains unaccounted for and which could be used for payment to creditors, Los Angeles, etc..

· Counsel Robert Sullivan on my behalf documented by way of certification upon investigation that Alan Shiff, USBCJ, had falsely stated a dismissal upon which false statement he predicated a retaliatory and spurious contempt proceeding against me causing substantial damage, and for which he sought Judicial Notice of those and related proceedings as did I in some of my filings.

· The Order of Dismissal With Prejudice by Alan Shiff, USBCJ, owing to Defendant Coan’s failure to file anything whatsoever by the court’s deadline causing creditors and me substantial damages: [ Shiff Order of Dismissal With Prejudice on Coan’s Failure to File Page 1 Page 2 ]

· Defendant Coan had filed an action against me to prevent me from suing him which necessitated me to fly to Connecticut for a hearing before The Honorable Robert N. Chatigny, Chief Judge, USDC, District of Connecticut, who denied Coan’s requested relief as to Coan but precluded my action against Shiff (although there is no immunity, judicial or otherwise, for criminal acts, ie., fraud connected with a case under Title 11, USC, etc.) . [ http://albertpeia.com/crossexamofcoanbypeia.pdf ]

· Newly appointed judge, Maryanne Trump Barry, Donald Trump’s sister, was assigned the RICO case despite the conflict of interest in light of hundreds of thousands of dollars of illegal (drug) money being laundered through the Trump casinos by the RICO defendants, and despite my motion to recuse her which motion she heard herself and denied, and U.S. Trustee Hugh Leonard with whom I met personally refused to join or file a separate motion to recuse and not long thereafter left said office for private practice at Cole, Shotz, et als on retainer with the RICO defendants as his primary client.

· Probative and evidentiary documents, affidavits, exhibits, including those turned over to FBI Agent Jeff Hayes in Long Beach, CA, had been given to Assistant U.S. Attorney Jonathan Lacey with whom I met personally at the U.S. Attorney’s Office in Newark, N.J., at which time Samuel Alito was U.S. Attorney, and went over said documents and their probative value with him. Within approximately a month thereafter upon inquiry I was told that Jonathon Lacey was no longer with the office, that the file/documents could not be located, and that there was no further information available concerning contacting him or his location. I thereupon delivered by hand, copies of said documents to the office of then U.S. Attorney Alito, addressed to him, with assurance they would go directly to him. In addition to being inept [ I looked in on the one mob case he had brought, bungled, lost (accidently on purpose?) since I was suing some mob-connected under RICO and the court (I had known / previously met outside of court the judge Ackerman through a client) was absolute bedlam and a total joke since incompetent corrupt Alito brought in all 20 mob defendants (rather than prosecute one or a few to flip them first) who feigning illness had beds/cots in the courtroom along with their moans during testimony and had the jury in stitches. As much as I hate the mob, it truly was funny, if not so tragic.], Alito is also corrupt (and maybe corrupt because he is inept). After a reasonable (but still rather short) time I called to determine the status and was told that Alito was no longer with the Office of the U.S. Attorney, that he was (appointed) a federal judge, and that neither the documents nor any file or record of same could be located. Alito did parley the same / cover-up into quid pro quo direct lifetime appointment to the Court of Appeals, 3^rd circuit, despite the absence of judicial experience or successful tenure as U.S. Attorney (Maryanne Trump Barry as well). This is the same Sam Alito that now sits on the purported highest court in the land. The real application of the illegal rule ‘don’t ask, don’t tell’.

There is applicable insurance / surety coverage and neither LA, nor creditors, nor I should continue to have been damaged by this brazened corrupt and illegal scenario, which should be resolved in accordance with the meaningful rules of law apposite thereto.

Sincerely,

Albert L. Peia

611 E. 5^th Street, #404

Los Angeles, CA 90013

(213) 219-**** (cell phone)

(213) 622-3745 (listed land line but there are unresolved problems with the line, computer connection may be the reason but I hesitate to chance greater non-performance / worsening by their ‘fix’ so cell phone best for contact).

NATO launches massive Libya strike (Washington Post)Tripoli is rocked by at least 15 huge explosions, many concentrated near Moammar Gaddafi’s compound. Senators introduce measure supporting force [ ‘The Empire Strikes Back’ (saw that film – the empire’s the bad guys) at … ] A storm season on a deadly path As the death toll hits 116, the latest tornado in Missouri has experts asking why 2011 has spawned so many deadly storms, with many blasting heavily populated areas. (Washington Post) [ … God’s Wrath … as good an explanation as any, especially when taking into account the innocent blood on former empire, pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt america’s hands … Market Downturn Approaching; Go Long the Ultra Shorts? White ‘It is time to worry about a market downturn. There has been almost consistently bad economic news ..: