January 7, 2011 posts

Business / Economic / Financial

[ This link to a somewhat more cumulative blog posts page will precede current days news since most all topics remain current in terms of impact and longer-term effect and can be searched by topical index term more easily. The same is provided since the blog site http://alpeiablog.blogspot.com has just been censored as to size by google which is typical for google as nsa / cia / gov’t shill as more are becoming aware of. The same is true for microsoft, another co. that’s seen their best days and relies on the government to maintain their monopoly. Up to now the better page http://www.scribd.com/alpeia is provided for ease of formatting and clarity thereby while the Washington Post page is the real deal but without formatting http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/community/mypost/index.html?plckPersonaPage=PersonaComments&plckUserId=alpeia&newspaperUserId=alpeia . The following is the cumulative archive of blog posts / topics for 2010 as the new year starts anew: http://albertpeia.com/December312010postsarchive.htm or PDF formatted version
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What Today's Job Numbers Aren't Telling You Simon Maierhofer, On Friday January 7, 2011, 6:10 pm EST

‘Another month goes by and another unemployment report deciphered. Is there more to this month's report than the 9.4% headline number? Unless you are content with the information spoon fed by the financial media, you'll find the data points revealed in this article rather interesting.The only other Wall Street ritual that tops monthly unemployment reports is earnings season. Like any other ritual, it comes with many myths and fables attached. The most common one is that unemployment directly affects stock prices.

Myth Busted

If you base your investment decisions on today's release, you may want to revisit the market's performance following last month's release (published on December 3, 2010).The U-3 unemployment rate spiked from 9.6% to 9.8%. This was a huge disappointment, yet major stock indexes a la S&P (SNP: ^GSPC), Dow (DJI: ^DJI) and Nasdaq (Nasdaq: ^IXIC) rallied. What caused this unexpected reaction? The answer can be found in technical analysis.The technical setup going into last month's unemployment release (published on December 3) was predominantly bullish. With the S&P (NYSEArca: IVV - News) at 1,225 in early November, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter highlighted important support at 1,165 - 1,170 and on November 7 stated: 'Any correction that doesn't drop below 1,165 will likely result in new highs' with resistance at 1,267 (revised to 1,281 on December 12).As the chart below illustrates, the S&P tested support on five occasions and set the stage for future gains. That's why despite the dismal jobless numbers, stocks spiked on the day of the release and continued higher. [chart] Before we talk about the technical set up going into today's release, let's examine some unknown but important details about today's unemployment report.

What the Headlines Won't Tell You

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS.org) publishes more data than just the heavily quoted U-3 unemployment headline number (currently 9.4%).In fact, if you do some surfing on BLS.org you will find that the headline number is deceptive at best and inaccurate at least. Below are some statistics that put America's job market in perspective.According to the BLS, the real unemployment rate (U-6), which includes workers who stopped looking for jobs or had to settle for part-time jobs - is at 16.7%.

One of the most remarkable BLS data points on the BLS site is the average number of weeks workers are now unemployed. The jobless are unemployed for an average of 34.2 weeks. As the chart below shows, this is the second highest reading in the survey's 63-year history (all-time high was 34.8 in July 2010). [chart]

Along the same lines, the number of workers unemployed for more than 27 weeks (usually unemployment benefits cease after 26 weeks) is near its May 2010 all-time high. [chart]

A Painful Misconception

The Bush tax-cut extension led many to believe that unemployment benefits have been extended beyond the 99 weeks (26 weeks state-funded plus 73 weeks federal benefits) available to the 25 worst hit states. This is not correct.According to CNBC, no benefits will be paid once the 99-week period is exhausted. As per the extension, however, the jobless will continue to receive up to 99 weeks of unemployment checks.Over the past three years, the unemployed have collected about $320 billion in jobless benefits. About two million '99ers' received their last benefit check around Christmas.

A Shrinking Workforce

It is estimated that about 150,000 'youngsters' enter the work force every year. That's why the work force has steadily increased since 1948. Courtesy of the 2008 bear market, the workforce has actually been shrinking as discouraged workers drop out of the statistics .Discouraged workers are those who stopped searching in the last four weeks. Excluding them from the workforce and the unemployment equation artificially lowers the U-3 unemployment rate. Discouraged workers surged to a new record high of 1.32 million which depressed the labor force participation rate to 64.3% (a 27-year low). If the participation rate had stayed the same, the U-3 unemployment rate would be 9.7%.

Making Sense of What Doesn't Make Sense

Based on U-6 numbers, since December 2006 as many 13 million Americans have either lost their jobs, or have been downgraded. Meanwhile food stamp recipients have mushroomed by ten 10 million.Nevertheless, stocks have shrugged off an avalanche of bad news and continue plowing ahead towards new highs. Does that make sense?It does when you include the Federal Reserve and it's quantitative easing program in this lopsided equation. The Fed has a history of creating and ignoring bubbles. The 2000 tech (NYSEArca: XLK - News) bubble came and went and was followed by the 2005 real estate (NYSEArca: IYR - News) bubble.The 2005 real estate bubble was somewhat cushioned by the 2007 financial (NYSEArca: XLF - News) bubble. The 2007 bubble bust expressed itself fully until the Fed started inflating yet another bubble - the QE1 and QE2-based 'great' new bull market.

The Technical Set Up

Looking at the long-term picture, there is reason to be skeptical about the growth potential for U.S. stocks (NYSEArca: IWM - News). But if you want instant gratification - as most investors do - what's the technical set up for the coming weeks?Looking at the market's internal indicators, we note that momentum is strong but breadth is weakening. Sentiment - one of the most reliable indicators in the investment universe - is extremely bullish, which is bearish for stocks.Prior instances when the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter noted overheated excitement for stocks was in January 2009, January 2010, and April 2010. Another bearish factor is the new January effect that's seen stocks decline each January over the past three years.Additionally, the S&P is about to reach the measured upside target of a W pattern (December 12 ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter) and a host of other resistance levels.In summary, momentum and Fed induced liquidity point up, but sentiment gauges and some technical indicators convey a deeply bearish message.The best way to navigate such cross currents is to let the market speak and carefully analyze its reaction to important support and resistance levels. Failure to break resistance levels combined with an inability to remain above support have been recipes for disaster in the past, especially with bullish sentiment at extreme levels.A chain is only as strong as its weakest link. The ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter monitors the market's internal strength to identify weak links before they break.’

January 7, 2011: Market Summary

December Jobs Miss Expectations

Unemployment Down To 9.4%, But Jobs Report Disappoints

Is a Correction Inevitable? [Short answer: YES! ] Vistesen ‘The signs are clear: risk is overloved, overbought and overextended but does this necessarily spell the inevitable correction? [Short answer: YES! ] (click for larger image) [chart] Since Augsut 2010 the SPY has barely touched its 50 day moving average. Indeed, it has stayed well clear of it. Those, like yours truly, who entered 2011 fancying some bloodletting have so far been disappointed. Plan B Economics points to the obvious that oftentimes in the world of investing, a choir chiming for an event to unfold is the best bet that it will not occur.

I’ve had a pretty good sense in the past knowing when the “correction” trade is overcrowded. I gotta say that I definitely sense that now. Bulls are on guard for a correction and bears are calling for one too. In fact, I’ve never seen such a unanimous call for a correction as I do now in a long time. Near the low of the day I saw a headline from bigcharts.com that said some portfolio manager claimed the January correction has started. The market didn’t even go in the red for the year yet and this guy’s already saying the correction has started? Talk about being over-eager. I believe this group think call for a correction means that a correction either won’t happen or will be quite shallow, well below expectations.

As a good friend of mine noted that this is like second-guessing the second-guesser. Market timing is best performed when frontrunning the crowd, not standing in the middle shouting like everyone else. On the technical side, I would like to see two (or three) straight days of declines in the SPY before calling it.The more interesting point is how deep (or shallow) it will be. A move to the 50 day MA marker would be something like 4.15% and come at around 1221 at current levels. Sounds about right to me.’ [ Vistesen’s clearly an unbridled optimist! ]

Drowning in Debt Nyaradi ‘Everywhere I looked yesterday, the world seemed to be drowning in debt.

In Portugal, bond spreads continue to widen as they prepare for a sale on January 12th while next door in Spain, their “D-Day” (debt day) sale comes on January 13th. France steps up on January 10th with more than $10 billion coming to market with Italy following on January 11.

The euro fell to the lowest level against the U.S. Dollar in three months in anticipation of next week’s auctions while the U.S. Dollar Index rose +0.68%.

Closer to home, Illinois struggles wtih a nearly $15 Billion hole that needs to be filled and so is pushing for a tax hike to do the job while in California, recycled Governor Jerry Brown promises to unveil a budget next week that will be “painful.”

Meanwhile, December retail sales originally ballyhooed as being the best in years turned in a lackluster performance and the pesky problem of persistent unemployment resurfaced yesterday with Initial Claims rising unexpectedly to 409,000 from 391,000 prior while Continuing Claims managed to fall.

Today comes the big report and whisper numbers are huge improvements over recent numbers.

Technically there’s no breadth and no momentum to market action and we remain in very overbought territory on nearly all indicators.

Daily Moves for Major ETFs:

Dow Jones Industrials: (NYSEArca: DIA) -0.22%

Russell 2000: (NYSEArca: IWM) -0.47%

NASDAQ 100: (NasdaqGM: QQQQ) +0.32%

S&P 500 Index: (NYSEArca: SPY) -0.20%

MSCI Emerging Markets:(NYSEArca: EEM) -1.07%%

MSCI China (NYSEArca: FXI) -0.79%%

Gold (NYSEArca: GLD) -0.40%

7-10 Year Treasuries: (NYSEArca: IEF) +0.52%

20+ Year Treasuries: (NYSEArca: TLT) +0.44%

VIX +2.23%

U.S. Dollar (NYSE:Arca: UUP) +0.77%

The major indexes remain overvalued and overbought on a technical and fundamental basis and so Wall Street Sector Selector remains in “Yellow Flag” status, expecting choppy to lower prices ahead.’

Thursday's Economic Data Roundup: Mixed News Roche ‘U.S. retailers posted weaker than expected sales in December, the Monster job index declined from last month’s highs and unemployment claims continued their steady trend lower. All in all it was a very mixed day of data.

• U.S. retailers posted weaker than expected chain store sales. Although weak, most retailers were still able to post year over year gains. But an alarming trend is showing up in the commentary – retailers are beginning to see margin compression due to rising input costs. Mark Montagna, a retail analyst at Avondale Partners says the entire supply chain cost is on the rise and cost conscious consumers are very sensitive to higher prices. The Wall Street Journal has a good round-up of the individual retailer results here.

• The Monster Employment Index (click to enlarge) showed a stagnant employment environment. Though year over year growth remains strong the sequential data is showing little to no sign of recovery. The index slowed to 130 in December from 134.[chart]

• Unemployment claims ticked higher from last week’s huge drop, but remain on a steady trend lower. This likely points to growth, but slow growth in the labor market. Econoday has the details on the claims data:

“Jobless claims haven’t been too bumpy this holiday period, moving convincingly lower. Claims did rise to 409,000 in the January 1 week yet follow the prior week’s 391,000 for the second best reading of the recovery (prior week revised from 388,000). The four-week average is telling the story, down 3,500 in the week for a 410,750 level that is down nearly 20,000from a month ago…’

Jobs growth disappoints, but jobless rate falls (Reuters)

Labor Force Participation Rate Drops To Fresh 25 Year Low, Adjusted Unemployment Rate At 11.7% Zero Hedge | While today’s unemployment number came at a low 9.4%, well below expectations, the one and only reason for this is that the labor force in America has plunged to a fresh 25 year low.

Europe unveils sweeping plans to govern reckless banks London Telegraph | Brussels has called for sweeping powers for regulators to seize failing EU banks, sack board members, and impose haircuts on senior bank debt.

Doug Casey: Prepare for Social Upheaval LewRockwell.com | The big question is not, “Can it happen here?” but, “Will it?” Or maybe, simply, “When?”

China Buys Up EU Government Debt China has been increasing its holdings of European government debt, including that issued by Spain, amid the euro-zone crisis, Chinese Vice Commerce Minister Gao Hucheng was quoted as saying.

Labor Force Participation Rate Drops To Fresh 25 Year Low, Adjusted Unemployment Rate At 11.7% While today’s unemployment number came at a low 9.4%, well below expectations, the one and only reason for this is that the labor force in America has plunged to a fresh 25 year low.

Not Just “Inflation Versus Deflation” … We’ve Got “MixedFlation” and “ExportFlation” Many people have made persuasive arguments for inflation.

The Contrived Drama of the Debt Ceiling Let the contrived drama of the debt ceiling begin for the American people.

Gallup Finds Unemployment Increased In December, Underemployment Is At 6 Month High, Blasts Government Data Fudging Following this week’s ebullient ADP private payrolls report, the sellside has succumbed to an orgiastic frenzy suggesting that tomorrow NFP number may be as high as 580,000 (as reported earlier).

Tipping Point: 25 Signs That The Coming Financial Collapse Is Now Closer Then Ever The financial collapse that so many of us have been anticipating is seemingly closer then ever. Over the past several weeks, there have been a host of ominous signs for the U.S. economy.

The Economic Collapse
Dec 17, 2010

The financial collapse that so many of us have been anticipating is seemingly closer then ever. Over the past several weeks, there have been a host of ominous signs for the U.S. economy. Yields on U.S. Treasuries have moved up rapidly and Moody’s is publicly warning that it may have to cut the rating on U.S. government debt soon. Mortgage rates are also moving up aggressively. The euro and the U.S. dollar both look incredibly shaky. Jobs continue to be shipped out of the United States at a blistering pace as our politicians stand by and do nothing. Confidence in U.S. government debt around the globe continues to decline. State and local governments that are drowning in debt across the United States are savagely cutting back on even essential social services and are coming up with increasingly “creative” ways of getting more money out of all of us. Meanwhile, tremor after tremor continues to strike the world financial system. So does this mean that we have almost reached a tipping point? Is the world on the verge of a major financial collapse?

Let’s hope not, but with each passing week the financial news just seems to get eve worse. Not only is U.S. government debt spinning wildly toward a breaking point, but many U.S. states (such as California) are in such horrific financial condition that they are beginning to resemble banana republics.

But it is not just the United States that is in trouble. Nightmarish debt problems in Greece, Spain, Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Belgium and several other European nations threaten to crash the euro at any time. In fact, many economists are now openly debating which will collapse first – the euro or the U.S. dollar.

Sadly, this is the inevitable result of constructing a global financial system on debt. All debt bubbles eventually collapse. Currently we are living in the biggest debt bubble in the history of the world, and when this one bursts it is going to be a disaster of truly historic proportions.

So will we reach a tipping point soon? Well, the following are 25 signs that the financial collapse is rapidly getting closer….

#1 The official U.S. unemployment rate has not been beneath 9 percent since April 2009.

#2 According to the U.S. Census Bureau, there are currently 6.3 million vacant homes in the United States that are either for sale or for rent.

#3 It is being projected that the U.S. trade deficit with China could hit 270 billion dollars for the entire year of 2010.

#4 Back in 2000, 7.2 percent of blue collar workers were either unemployed or underemployed. Today that figure is up to 19.5 percent.

#5 The Chinese government has accumulated approximately $2.65 trillion in total foreign exchange reserves. They have drained this wealth from the economies of other nations (such as the United States) and instead of reinvesting all of it they are just sitting on much of it. This is creating tremendous imbalances in the global economy.

#6 Since the year 2000, we have lost 10% of our middle class jobs. In the year 2000 there were approximately 72 million middle class jobs in the United States but today there are only about 65 million middle class jobs.

#7 The United States now employs about the same number of people in manufacturing as it did back in 1940. Considering the fact that we had 132 million people living in this country in 1940 and that we have well over 300 million people living in this country today, that is a very sobering statistic.

#8 According to CoreLogic, U.S. housing prices have now declined for three months in a row.

#9 The average rate on a 30 year fixed rate mortgage soared 11 basis points just this past week. As mortgage rates continue to push higher it is going to make it even more difficult for American families to afford homes.

#10 22.5 percent of all residential mortgages in the United States were in negative equity as of the end of the third quarter of 2010.

#11 The U.S. monetary base has more than doubled since the beginning of the most recent recession.

#12 U.S. Treasury yields have been rising steadily during the 4th quarter of 2010 and recently hit a six-month high.

#13 Incoming governor Jerry Brown is scrambling to find $29 billion more to cut from the California state budget. The following quote from Brown about the desperate condition of California state finances is not going to do much to inspire confidence in California’s financial situation around the globe….

“We’ve been living in fantasy land. It is much worse than I thought. I’m shocked.”

#14 24.3 percent of the residents of El Centro, California are currently unemployed.

#15 The average home in Merced, California has declined in value by 63 percent over the past four years.

#16 Detroit Mayor Dave Bing has come up with a new way to save money. He wants to cut 20 percent of Detroit off from essential social services such as road repairs, police patrols, functioning street lights and garbage collection.

#17 The second most dangerous city in the United States – Camden, New Jersey – is about to lay off about half its police in a desperate attempt to save money.

#18 In 2010, 55 percent of Americans between the ages of 60 and 64 were in the labor market. Ten years ago, that number was just 47 percent. More older Americans than ever find that they have to keep working just to survive.

#19 Back in 1998, the United States had 25 percent of the world’s high-tech export market and China had just 10 percent. Ten years later, the United States had less than 15 percent and China’s share had soared to 20 percent.

#20 The U.S. government budget deficit increased to a whopping $150.4 billion last month, which represented the biggest November budget deficit on record.

#21 The U.S. government is somehow going to have to roll over existing debt and finance new debt that is equivalent to 27.8 percent of GDP in 2011.

#22 The United States had been the leading consumer of energy on the globe for about 100 years, but this past summer China took over the number one spot.

#23 According to an absolutely stunning new poll, 40 percent of all U.S. doctors plan to bail out of the profession over the next three years.

#24 As 2007 began, there were just over 1 million Americans that had been unemployed for half a year or longer. Today, there are over 6 million Americans that have been unemployed for half a year or longer.

#25 All over the United States, local governments have begun instituting “police response fees”. For example, New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg has come up with a plan under which a fee of $365 would be charged if police are called to respond to an automobile accident where no injuries are involved. If there are injuries as a result of the crash that is going to cost extra.

16 Nightmarish Economic Trends To Watch Carefully In 2011 The American Dream Dec 15, 2010 ‘If you only watch the “economic pundits” on television, it can be very confusing to figure out exactly what is happening with the U.S. economy. One pundit will pull out a couple statistics that got a little bit better over the past month and claim that we have entered a time of solid recovery. Another pundit will pull out a couple statistics that got a little worse over the past month and claim that we are headed for trouble. So what is the truth? Well, if you really want to get a clear idea of what is really going on you have to look at the long-term trends. There are some economic trends which just keep getting worse year after year after year, and it is those trends that tell the real story of the decline of our economic system.

As you examine the long-term trends, you quickly come to realize that the U.S. is trapped in an endless spiral of debt, the middle class is being wiped out, the U.S. dollar is being destroyed and America is rapidly becoming a post-industrial wasteland.

Posted below are 16 nightmarish economic trends to watch carefully in 2011. It is becoming exceedingly apparent that unless something is done rapidly we are heading for an economic collapse of unprecedented magnitude….

#1 Do you want to see something scary? Just check out the chart below. Since the beginning of the economic downturn, the U.S. monetary base has more than doubled. But don’t worry – Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has promised us that this could never cause inflation. In fact, Bernanke says that we need to inject even more dollars into the economy. So if you are alarmed by the chart below, you are just being irrational according to Bernanke….

[chart]

#2 Thousands of our factories, millions of our jobs and hundreds of billions of dollars of our national wealth continue to be shipped overseas. In 1985, the U.S. trade deficit with China was 6 million dollars for the entire year. In the month of August alone, the U.S. trade deficit with China was over 28 billion dollars. Nobel economist Robert W. Fogel of the University of Chicago is projecting that the Chinese economy will be three times larger than the U.S. economy by the year 2040 if current trends continue.

#3 The United States is rapidly becoming a post-industrial wasteland. Back in 1959, manufacturing represented 28 percent of all U.S. economic output. In 2008, it represented only 11.5 percent and it continues to fall. Sadly, the truth is that America is being deindustrialized. As of the end of 2009, less than 12 million Americans worked in manufacturing. The last time that less than 12 million Americans were employed in manufacturing was in 1941.

#4 The number of Americans that have been out of work for an extended period of time has absolutely exploded over the last few years. As 2007 began, there were just over 1 million Americans that had been unemployed for half a year or longer. Today, there are over 6 million Americans that have been unemployed for half a year or longer.

#5 The middle class continues to be squeezed out of existence. According to a poll taken in 2009, 61 percent of Americans ”always or usually” live paycheck to paycheck. That was up substantially from 49 percent in 2008 and 43 percent in 2007.

#6 The number of Americans living in poverty is absolutely skyrocketing. 42.9 million Americans are now on food stamps, and one out of every six Americans is now enrolled in at least one anti-poverty program run by the federal government. Unfortunately, many of those that have been hardest hit by this economic downturn have been children. According to one new study, approximately 21 percent of all children in the United States are living below the poverty line in 2010 - the highest rate in 20 years.

#7 Many American families have been pushed beyond the breaking point during this economic downturn. Over 1.4 million Americans filed for personal bankruptcy in 2009, which represented a 32 percent increase over 2008. The final number for 2010 is expected to be even higher.

#8 The U.S. real estate market continues to stagnate. During the third quarter of 2010, 67 percent of mortgages in Nevada were “underwater”, 49 percent of mortgages in Arizona were “underwater” and 46 percent of mortgages in Florida were “underwater”. So what happens if home prices go down even more?

#9 More elderly Americans than ever are being forced to put off retirement and continue working. In 2010, 55 percent of Americans between the ages of 60 and 64 were in the labor market. Ten years ago, that number was just 47 percent. Unfortunately, it looks like this problem will only get worse in the years ahead. In America today, approximately half of all workers have less than $2000 saved up for retirement.

#10 In the United States today, there are simply far too many retirees and not nearly enough workers to support them. Back in 1950 each retiree’s Social Security benefit was paid for by 16 workers. Today, each retiree’s Social Security benefit is paid for by approximately 3.3 workers. By 2025 it is projected that there will be approximately two workers for each retiree.

#11 Financial assets continue to become concentrated in fewer and fewer hands. For example, the “big four” U.S. banks (Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and Wells Fargo) had approximately 22 percent of all deposits in FDIC-insured institutions back in 2000. As of the middle of 2009 that figure was up to 39 percent.

#12 The Federal Reserve has been destroying the value of the U.S. dollar for decades. Since the Federal Reserve was created in 1913, the U.S. dollar has lost over 95 percent of its purchasing power. An item that cost $20.00 in 1970 would cost you $112.35 today. An item that cost $20.00 in 1913 would cost you $440.33 today.

#13 Commodity prices continue to soar into the stratosphere. Ten years ago, the price of a barrel of oil hovered around 20 to 30 dollars most of the time. Today, the price of oil is rapidly closing in on 100 dollars a barrel and there are now fears that it could soon go much higher than that.

#14 Federal government spending is completely and totally out of control. The U.S. government budget deficit increased to a whopping $150.4 billion last month, which represented the biggest November deficit on record. But our politicians can’t seem to break their addiction to debt. In fact, Democrats are trying to ram through a 1,924 page, 1.1 trillion dollar spending bill in the final days of the lame-duck session of Congress before the Republicans take control of the House of Representatives next year.

#15 The U.S. national debt is rapidly closing in on 14 trillion dollars. It is more than 13 times larger than it was just 30 short years ago. According to an official U.S. Treasury Department report to Congress, the U.S. national debt is projected to climb to an estimated $19.6 trillion by 2015.

#16 Unfortunately, the official government numbers grossly understate the horrific nature of the crisis we are facing. John Williams of Shadow Government Statistics has calculated that if the federal government would have used GAAP accounting standards to measure the federal budget deficit for 2009, it would have been approximately 8.8 trillion dollars. Not only that, but John Williams now says that U.S. government debt is so wildly out of control that it is mathematically impossible for us to “grow” our way out of it….

The government’s finances not only are out of control, but the actual deficit is not containable. Put into perspective, if the government were to raise taxes so as to seize 100% of all wages, salaries and corporate profits, it still would be showing an annual deficit using GAAP accounting on a consistent basis. In like manner, given current revenues, if it stopped spending every penny (including defense and homeland security) other than for Social Security and Medicare obligations, the government still would be showing an annual deficit. Further, the U.S. has no potential way to grow out of this shortfall.

The more one examines the U.S. economic situation, the more depressing it becomes. The U.S. financial system is trapped inside a horrific debt spiral and we are headed straight for economic oblivion.

If our leaders attempt to interrupt the debt spiral it will plunge our economy into a depression. If our leaders attempt to keep the debt spiral going for several more years it will just make the eventual crash even worse. Either way, we are headed for a financial implosion that will be truly historic.

The debt-fueled good times that we have been enjoying for the last several decades are rapidly coming to an end. Unfortunately for the tens of millions of Americans that are already suffering, our economic problems are only going to get worse in the years ahead.’

Jobless Recovery?: 25 Unemployment Statistics That Are Almost Too Depressing To Read ‘… Unemployment is up again! That’s right – even though Wall Street is swimming in cash and the Obama administration is declaring that “the recession is over”, the U.S. unemployment rate has gone even higher. So are you enjoying the jobless recovery? Economic Collapse Blog Dec 4, 2010 ‘Guess what? Unemployment is up again! That’s right – even though Wall Street is swimming in cash and the Obama administration is declaring that “the recession is over”, the U.S. unemployment rate has gone even higher ... Times are really, really tough and unfortunately the long-term outlook is very bleak. We should have compassion on those who are out of work right now, because soon many of us may join them.

The following are 25 unemployment statistics that are almost too depressing to read….

#1 According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the U.S. unemployment rate for November was 9.8 percent. This was up from 9.6 percent in October, and it continues a trend of depressingly high unemployment rates. The official unemployment number has been at 9.5 percent or higher for well over a year at this point.

#2 In November 2006, the “official” U.S. unemployment rate was just 4.5 percent.

#3 Most economists had been expecting the U.S. economy to add about 150,000 jobs in November. Instead, it only added 39,000.

#4 In the United States today, there are over 15 million people who are “officially” considered to be unemployed for statistical purposes. But everyone knows that the “real” number is even much larger than that.

#5 As 2007 began, there were just over 1 million Americans that had been unemployed for half a year or longer. Today, there are over 6 million Americans that have been unemployed for half a year or longer.

#6 The number of “persons not in the labor force” in the United States recently set another new all-time record.

#7 It now takes the average unemployed American over 33 weeks to find a job.

#8 When you throw in “discouraged workers” and “underemployed workers”, the “real” unemployment rate in the state of California is actually about 22 percent.

#9 In America today there are not nearly enough jobs for everyone. In fact, there are now approximately 5 unemployed Americans for every single job opening.

#10 According to The New York Times, Americans that have been unemployed for five weeks or less are three times more likely to find a new job in the coming month than Americans that have been unemployed for over a year.

#11 The U.S. economy would need to create 235,120 new jobs a month to get the unemployment rate down to pre-recession levels by 2016. Does anyone think that there is even a prayer that is going to happen?

#12 There are 9 million Americans that are working part-time for “economic reasons”. In other words, those Americans would gladly take full-time jobs if they could get them, but all they have been able to find is part-time work.

#13 In 2009, total wages, median wages, and average wages all declined in the United States.

#14 As of the end of 2009, less than 12 million Americans worked in manufacturing. The last time that less than 12 million Americans were employed in manufacturing was in 1941.

#15 The United States has lost at least 7.5 million jobs since the recession began.

#16 Today, only about 40 percent of Ford Motor Company’s 178,000 workers are employed in North America, and a big percentage of those jobs are in Canada and Mexico.

#17 In 1959, manufacturing represented 28 percent of U.S. economic output. In 2008, it represented 11.5 percent.

#18 Earlier this year, one poll found that 28% of all American households had at least one member that was looking for a full-time job.

#19 In the United States today, over 18,000 parking lot attendants have college degrees.

#20 The United States has lost a staggering 32 percent of its manufacturing jobs since the year 2000.

#21 As the employment situation continues to stagnate, millions of American families have decided to cut back on things such as insurance coverage. For example, the percentage of American households that have life insurance coverage is at its lowest level in 50 years.

#22 Unless Congress acts, and there is no indication that is going to happen, approximately 2 million Americans will stop receiving unemployment checks over the next couple of months.

#23 A poll that was released by the Pew Research Center back in June discovered that an astounding 55 percent of the U.S. labor force has experienced either unemployment, a pay decrease, a reduction in hours or an involuntary move to part-time work since the economic downturn began.

#24 According to Richard McCormack, the United States has lost over 42,000 factories (and counting) since 2001.

#25 In the United States today, 317,000 waiters and waitresses have college degrees.

But this is what we get for creating the biggest debt bubble in the history of the world. For decades we have been digging a deeper hole for ourselves by going into increasingly larger amounts of debt. In America today, our entire economy is based on debt. Even our money is debt. We were fools if we ever thought this could go on forever. Just think about it. Have you ever gone out and run up a bunch of debt? It can be a lot of fun sitting behind the wheel of a new car, running your credit cards up to the limit and buying a beautiful big house that you cannot afford. But in the end what happens? It always catches up with you. Well, our collective debt is starting to catch up with us. There is a sea of red ink on every level of American society. It is only a matter of time before it destroys our economy. IF YOU THINK THAT THINGS ARE BAD NOW, JUST WAIT. THINGS ARE GOING TO GET A WHOLE LOT WORSE. A HORRIFIC ECONOMIC COLLAPSE IS COMING, AND IT IS GOING TO BE VERY, VERY PAINFUL.’

Howard Davidowitz on the Economy: "Here Are the Numbers ... WE'RE BROKE!" 11-25-10 ‘The U.S. economy "is a complete disaster," Howard Davidowitz declared here in July, the most recent in a string of dire predictions from Tech Ticker's most entertaining guest.On the eve of Thanksgiving, I asked Davidowitz if he had any regrets, or was ready to throw in the towel given recent signs of economic revival. Are you kidding me? "Here are the numbers...we're broke," Davidowitz declares, noting the U.S. government goes $5 billion deeper into debt every day and is facing $1 trillion-plus annual deficits for the next decade. "In other words, we're bankrupt."As with the economy, Davidowitz is unwaveringly consistent in his views on President Obama, calling him "deranged, dysfunctional and discredited."Results of the midterm election show "the people of this country think we are in a catastrophe," he says. "I'm with them."Check the accompanying video for more of Howard's unfettered opinions and stay tuned for additional clips from this interview. And...Happy Thanksgiving! Aaron Task is the host of Tech Ticker. You can follow him on Twitter at @atask or email him at altask@yahoo.com’

Timid Tuesday: Is it Safe? Davis ‘… This is how we pay off our current debts and I think bondholders are simply happy to get anything out of a country that admits it owes $15Tn (1/4 of global GDP) but probably owes closer to $60Tn (entire global GDP) in the form of unfunded liabilities. The funniest thing about this (and you have to laugh) is to see Conservative pundits get on TV and talk about how we need to cut $100Bn worth of discretionary spending to "fix" this (while continuing to spend $1Tn on the military and $1Tn on tax cuts for the top 1% each year). There is no fixing this and even a Republican said you can’t fool all of the people all of the time. THIS HOUSE OF CARDS IS TEETERING FOLKS – PLEASE BE CAREFUL OUT THERE! ‘

17 Things Worrying Investors Lloyd's Wall of Worry

Worry Count: 17


CHINA: 1,330,044,605 people can’t be wrong.

The PIIGS: Fasten your seatbelts. It’s gonna be a long, bumpy, expensive, weird, (insert your own adjective here) freak show of a ride.

CALIFORNIA AND THE OTHER 49 STATES: Not yet as dire as “The PIIGS”. Might I suggest the classier moniker of “The Prosciuttos” for the American basket-case states?

QE II: Gobble?

U.S. ECONOMY: The “Punky Brewster” of the global economic landscape.

UNEMPLOYMENT: Only thing worse than losing your job, losing your unemployment check. At least there’s the holiday season to cheer everyone up (read: heavy sarcasm).

TAXES: Praying to the Financial Market Gods that we don’t have another TARP-like vote fiasco.

OBAMA ADMINISTRATION PART II: Still two years before the Pres. election and the peanut gallery is already pleading for a Hail Mary Pass to get them back in the game.

HFT: Instead of beating up these liquidity supplying traders, let’s honor them with their very own stock exchange. But wait -- with no retail saps to pick-off they will never get that Day 1 opening bell tick. Perfect.

XMAS 2010: As my professor friend Nick says, “Nowadays Americans are dining off of two menus – The Million Dollar and the $0.99 Cent.” And both are pissed about it.

CURRENCIES: Poor Mr. Greenback. Does someone need a hug?

HOUSING CRISIS: Price Stabilization – Are we there yet? Just a little bit more. Are we there yet? Just a little bit more. Are we there yet? Just a little bit more….

INFLATION/DEFLATION: Fed Chief Ben B. comes out swinging from his heels in defense of inflation promotion. Don’t punch yourself out as this one is likely to go the distance.

COMMODITIES: Corrected but still sky high; fortunately these prices are only affecting core, basic, life-sustaining necessities and sparing our electronic gadgets and plus-sized SUVs. Whew!

INSIDER TRADING: Another black eye for Hedge Funds. I estimate that makes black eye number 6,597.

INTEREST RATES: South Korea and China slowly turning up the dial to “11”. On the other hand the U.S. has removed the dial altogether. This never ends well….

NORTH KOREA: Here we go again.

Consumer confidence down, LiveLeak.com - Loonie closes above U.S. dollar … dollar for first time closes below parity on Canadian loonie … hey, hey, hey … 'Huge' stock decline — but not yet MarketWatch - Brimelow ‘Commentary: Adens … ‘mega trend’ looks grim … The Adens expect a hyperinflationary collapse … ‘ Oh come on! Manipulated dollar decline with inflated earnings, stock prices thereby, etc., … we’ve seen this all before … the last few crashes … Jobless rate jumps to 9.8% as hiring slows (Washington Post) [ The reality is not a mystery! The nation’s been thrown under the bus for the greater good (wealth) of the very few (frauds on wall street, etc.); wall street giving out record bonuses from their accomplished fraud (with no-recession b.s. bernanke help) of $144 BILLION: Come on! This is gettin’ even more downright ridiculous (if that’s even possible)! Pending home foreclosure / distress sales up, oil prices (and oil stocks) up, debased dollar down, plus a little familiar ‘better than expected’ thrown in along with prospects of a ‘no-recession bernanke’ market-frothing bull session on 60 minutes and, voila, suckers’ rally into the close to keep the suckers suckered! What’s good for the frauds on wall street is bad for just about everyone else which includes the vast majority of people and businesses, domestically and globally, as current dollar manipulation / debasement ultimately results in higher costs and loss of purchasing power (ie., oil, etc.). Clearly, this is one of those fraudulent wealth transfers to the frauds on wall street et als which will ultimately be paid for by those who least are in a position to afford it, courtesy of the ever more worthless Weimar dollar, etc., inflating earnings, eps, lowering p/e multiples, etc., see infra. This is an especially great time to sell / take profits while you can since there's much worse to come! Previous: Rosy numbers on consumer sentiment, unemployment (far better than private forecasts) from the government prior to the holiday so-called ‘shop till you drop’? How can anyone believe anything they say? Najerian interviewed by Motek chimes in with the reason for good retail cheer; viz., people have stopped paying their mortgages and are using the funds to purchase retail goods; while Davidowitz adds that with record numbers of americans on food stamps, real unemployment at 17+, and wall street giving out record bonuses from their accomplished fraud (with no-recession b.s. bernanke help) of $144 BILLION … the high end stores / jewelers will do well … daaaaah! And, with insiders and wall street frauds selling into the bubble as preceded last crash, this is an especially great opportunity to sell / take profits! Suckers’ rally on light volume, full moon, and government complicity (false data / reports) to keep suckers suckered (easy for the wall street frauds to do with just a mouse click / push of the button – and, they know all those technical trade lines that are easy to program in this current phase of the scam/fraud with the debased dollar). Keep in mind, the totally mindless blather from the ‘cottage industries’ of and fraudulent wall street itself in talking up lower P/E multiples when the same is a direct result of the debasement of the dollar and the consequent manipulation / translation (not real, see Davis, infra) which preceded the financial crisis / last crash. Unemployment, trade, deficit, etc., numbers continue decidedly worse than expected along with other negative data (and in the ‘wrong direction’, that spin accorded ‘down but not as bad as before’ b*** s*** ) yet the market has rallied like no tomorrow with used home foreclosure / distressed sales, though abated owing to ‘foreclosuregate’, the other ‘heralded’ good news. Moreover, the dumbo lemmings of Europe have jumped on the fraudulent defacto bankrupt american crazy train propelled to the precipice also as if no tomorrow. This is about keeping the suckers sucked in with the help of a market-frothing pre-election debased dollar for favorable currency translation and paper (but not real when measured in, ie., gold, etc.) profits which preceded the last crisis, inflating a bubble as in the last crisis to facilitate the churn-and-earn, particularly with computerized (and high frequency) trades and which commissions they’ll get again on the way down. There is nothing to support these overbought stock prices, fundamentally or otherwise. These are desperate criminals ‘at work’. Even wall street shill, the senile Buffett is saying we’re still in a recession (depression) [ Davis: ‘… all profits are inflated by 10% (from falling, debased dollar) and that 10% is the E that gets divided from the P and gives us a much better price/multiple to hang our hats on and that gets investors to BUYBUYBUY …’ The bull market that never was / were beyond wall street b.s. when measured in gold ] This is a great opportunity to sell / take profits (these lower dollar, hyperinflationary currency manipulations / translations to froth paper stocks will end quite badly as in last crash)! This is a global depression. This is a secular bear market in a global depression. The past up moves were manipulated bull (s***) cycles (at best) in a secular bear market. This has been a typically manipulated bubble as has preceded the prior crashes with great regularity that the wall street frauds and insiders commission and sell into. This is a typical wall street ‘programmed computerized high-frequency churn and earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud as in prior crashes ( widely reported, high-frequency trading routinely accounts for more than 50% of daily U.S. equity trading volume and regularly approaches 70%. )’. This national decline, economic and otherwise, will not end until justice is served and the wall street frauds et als are criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed.The Stock Market's Long Decline Has Begun Smith ]

(1-7-11) Dow 11,624 -23 Nasdaq 2,703 -6 S&P 500 1,271 -2 [CLOSE- OIL $88.03 (-54% for year 2008) (RECORD TRADING HIGH $147.27) GAS $3.00 (reg. gas in LAND OF FRUITS AND NUTS $3.20 REG./ $3.29 MID-GRADE/ $3.39 PREM./ $3.79 DIESEL) / GOLD $1,369 (+24% for year 2009) / SILVER $28.88 (+47% for year 2009) PLATINUM $1,729 (+56% for year 2009) / DOLLAR= .77 EURO, 83 YEN, .64 POUND STERLING, ETC. (How low can you go - LOWER)/ http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/update 10 YR NOTE YIELD 3.33% …..… AP Business Highlights ...Yahoo Market Update... T. Rowe Price Weekly Recap – Stocks / Bonds / Currencies - Domestic / International This Is a Secular Bear Market and The End of Buy and Hold … and Hope MARKET MANIPULATION AND HOW THE LATEST BUBBLE-FRAUD PRE-COMING CRASH IS BEING ACCOMPLISHED 3-11-10 6 Theories On Why the Stock Market Has Rallied 3-9-10 [archived website file] Risks Lurk for ETF Investors The bull market that never was/were beyond wall street b.s. when measured in gold Property Values Projected to Fall 12% in 2010 Jan 31, 2010 The Week Ahead: Risk Is Off the Cliff; Unwind Has Begun Jan 31, 2010 01-13-10 Forecast for 2010 from Seeking Alpha Contributor THE COMING MARKET CRASH / CORRECTION 1-28-10 Maierhofer (01-15-10) 11 Clear Signs Economy Sinking Economic Black Hole 1-22-10: 20 Reasons Why The U.S. Economy Is Dying And Is Simply Not Going To Recover Current Economic / Fiscal Charts Trendsresearch.com forecast for 2009 1-7-10 Crash is coming! ‘WORST ECONOMIC COLLAPSE EVER’ Must Read Economic / Financial Data This Depression is just beginning The coming depression… thecomingdepression.net MUST READ: JEREMY GRANTHAM’S QUARTERLY UPDATE 25 January 2010 (850 on the S&P) by TPC The Next Wave of Collapse is Coming Sooner than you think Sliding Back Into the Great Depression ABSOLUTELY, ABSURDLY, RIDICULOUS! SELL / TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME!

National / World

US says too much fluoride causing splotchy teeth (AP) [ Actually, flouride’s a poison which is actually used in such things as ‘rat poison’, but has also historically been used to make ‘populations’ more docile / controllable. I guess they figure they’ve finally gotten the controlled american public zombies where they want them…mission accomplished…no need to waste more flouride. ] In a remarkable turnabout, federal health officials say many americans are now getting too much fluoride because of its presence not just in drinking water but in toothpaste, mouthwash and other ...

Deregulating ‘Frankenfoods’ Jason Douglass | Pioneer, a DuPont Company has filed with APHIS to have a particular GM corn line deregulated.

Eco-Nazi Orders Americans To Pay Carbon Tax On Children Paul Joseph Watson | IPCC Professor wants communist-style controls on giving birth.

Alex Jones & Nick Begich On Coast to Coast Infowars.com | Radio host Alex Jones and researcher Nick Begich comment on the recent bird die-off.

Alex Jones: Eco-Fascists Call For Prison Cities Infowars.com | People who resist the state controlling every aspect of their existence will be forced to live in squalid ghettos.

Establishment Republicans Omit Crucial Passage in Constitution Reading Stunt Kurt Nimmo | The invasion and the spill-over of violence from the Mexican narco state represents “domestic violence” against the American people.

Government Recommends Lowering Fluoride Levels in U.S. Drinking Water The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency are recommending changing for the first time in nearly 50 years the amount of fluoride allowed in drinking water because of an increase in fluorosis — a condition that causes spotting and streaking on children’s teeth.

Homeland Security Hasn’t Made Us Safer DHS serves only one clear purpose: to provide unimaginable bonanzas for favored congressional districts around the United States, most of which face no statistically significant security threat at all.

Establishment Republicans Omit Crucial Passage in Constitution Reading Stunt The Constitution reading stunt performed by establishment Republicans designed to placate a co-opted Tea Party fizzled Thursda

Murdered Bush Aide Was An Expert In Chemical, Biological & Cyber-Warfare, Had Highest Security Clearances Cryptome | John Wheeler III was mysteriously found in a garbage dump only hours after being seen wandering around with one shoe in a parking garage. Retired Lt. Gen. McInerney said it ‘had to be a professional hit job.’

DRUDGEREPORT: NYT SATURDAY: NUMBER OF COMBAT INJURIES IN AFGHANISTAN APPROACHES IRAQ-WAR LEVELS... DEVELOPING...
'WE'RE DIGGING OUT OF A HOLE' [ Example of sentiment: some comments - ‘…Barack Obama is a cooked goose. He is absolutely the most incompetent president of the U.S. ever, so he continues to spin the numbers in such a manner that might make him look good. News for him: NOTHING will make you look good. Pretty is skin deep, incompetence goes clear to the bone. "Let his days be few; and let another take his office." Psalms 109:8- RightStuff, Texas, USA, 7/1/2011 19:45

You know what happens when you keep digging a hole - you reach China and that is what is going to finish the americans and Obamarama...- Olrik, Canada, 7/1/2011 19:41

'We're digging ourselves out of a hole' - Barack Hussein Obama To get out of a hole you've dug so deep, is to STOP DIGGING, fill it up with soil so you can climb OUT OF THE HOLE. STOP SPENDING OBAMA! STOP PRINTING MONEY! The US dollar is weakening against YUAN of China. Republicans better start cutting all spending, defund/repeal Obamacare, America is flat BROKE! If Republicans can't rein all spending created by Pelosi and her peons, their DEBT would be BIGGER than their economy.- Observer, over here, over there, 7/1/2011 19:33

Well the ammo index is still down, I guess having 3,000 rounds is enough- NVBob, Richland WA USA, 7/1/2011 19:31

Fill in the hole, with Obama in it, at the bottom!- Stan, St Louis, Missouri, USA, 7/1/2011 19:30

As one would expect of a socialist, clueless to the mechanics of a capitalist system, he seeks to extricate himself from a hole by further digging.- jnsesq, minimaxi, 7/1/2011 19:29 Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1345047/Glimmer-hope-U-S-economy-jobless-rate-falls-lowest-level-19-months.html#ixzz1APmJZga7’ ]

Jobs report an 'utter mess'... ‘…However, some economists were less optimistic. 'It's a bit of a mixed bag,' said Ryan Sweet, an economist at Moody's Analytics. Many analysts hoped to see larger job gains, and the drop in the unemployment rate is unlikely to be sustained, he said. 'The labour market ended last year with a bit of a thud,' he said…’
China plans $1.3 billion 'seven-star hotel'...
China Backs Europe, Euro for Investing Reserves...
REPORT: Too much fluoride in US water...
CBO Says Repeal Would Reduce Spending by $540 Billion...’The Congressional Budget Office, in an email to Capitol Hill staffers obtained by the Spectator, has said that repealing the national health care law would reduce net spending by $540 billion in the ten year period from 2012 through 2021. That number represents the cost of the new provisions, minus Medicare cuts. Repealing the bill would also eliminate $770 billion in taxes. It's the tax hikes in the health care law (along with the Medicare cuts) which accounts for the $230 billion in deficit reduction…’

Republicans reject cost estimate on health repeal (Washington Post) [ One thing’s certain … they’ll agree to disagree … $14 plus trillion and counting and wobama the b for b*** s*** and co are worried about a couple hundred billion … tax cuts to the rich … (Davis ‘… This is how we pay off our current debts and I think bondholders are simply happy to get anything out of a country that admits it owes $15Tn (1/4 of global GDP) but probably owes closer to $60Tn (entire global GDP) in the form of unfunded liabilities. The funniest thing about this (and you have to laugh) is to see Conservative pundits get on TV and talk about how we need to cut $100Bn worth of discretionary spending to "fix" this (while continuing to spend $1Tn on the military and $1Tn on tax cuts for the top 1% each year). There is no fixing this and even a Republican said you can’t fool all of the people all of the time. THIS HOUSE OF CARDS IS TEETERING FOLKS – PLEASE BE CAREFUL OUT THERE!) ‘Then again, look at the war spending : Drudgereport: Congresswoman calls Afghanistan 'national embarrassment'... 'Epic failure'... Rep. Lynn Woolsey (D-CA) talks about the "disastrous" war that is Afghanistan. "This war represents an epic failure, a national embarrassment and a moral blight," Rep. Woolsey said. [ True enough! Though broke, they’re still voting for more war across the board. But even more than that, this war is a blowback-creating, self-perpetuating, self-destructive, self-defeating, colossally expensive debacle benefiting only the war profiteers / lobbies and attendant frauds while diverting attention from the more ’mundane’ tasks of governance of a failing, pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt nation, viz., america. ]
PENTAGON BUDGET SLASH [ Riiiiight! … What’s $80 billion on a trillion dollar tab especially with those off-budget special items whenever they so choose. ]: OBAMA TO CUT TROOPS ON ACTIVE DUTY
FEDS BREAK GROUND ON SUPER SPY CENTER (Riiiiight! More spending on those ultra-efficient super-spies, ie., Iraq on a lie, illegal drug ops, 9-11 NORAD ordered to stand down, etc., though u.s. defacto bankrupt)...
New Miami Police peeping drone may be first in country; ACLU approves...
Man Arrested for Having 'Suspicious' Bagel on Plane...
Ex-CIA officer charged with leak to NYT reporter...
Packages Cause 'Flash Explosions' At 2 State Gov't Buildings in MD...
One addressed to Gov...
US Treasury asks Congress to lift debt ceiling...
Obama calls Gibbs $174,000 salary 'relatively modest' ( Come on! In pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt america, government jobs for the otherwise unemployable at those levels are over-priced and over-valued, as are other so-called executive jobs, ie., fraudulent wall street, etc.. Look at their results! )... ] Boehner dismisses CBO forecast that rescinding law would raise deficit by about $230 billion and leave 32 million more Americans uninsured.

Apprehension ahead of Moqtada al-Sadr speech (Washington Post) [ What is he expected to say?: Thank you america for bombing, invading, and destroying his nation based on a lie? Thank you america for killing, maiming innocent children, women, and men? Thank you america for all the depleted uranium you’ve left behind? Thank you america for removing your america-supported mad-dog tyrant sadam hussein who foolishly played into his cia handlers’ trap regarding that green light for Kuwait invasion over the slant-drilling by the latter from April Glasspie. I don’t think so, and I don’t think the rest of the world nor his fellow Iraqis think so. ] Lawmakers across Iraq's political and ethnic spectrums wait for word from anti-American Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, saying his first address after returning from nearly four years of self-imposed exile in Iran would likely say a lot about his approach to Iraq's government.

Insurer claims it was misled by Goldman Sachs on investment (Washington Post) [ Talk about understatements. After all, who hasn’t been misled by goldmen sachs and fraudulent wall street generally, on investments. Don’t forget, the worthless toxic paper commissioned and cashed out by wall street is still out there in the trillions now marked to anything. ] One of Goldman's clients says it has sued the bank seeking $120 million in damages.

Milbank: Getting creative with the Constitution (Washington Post) [ Constitution? Versions? Meaningful laws? Why, this is almost analogous or akin to the late idi amin reading the Ugandan constitution (1995) from his grave, certainly in terms of folly! ]Constitutionalism (WP) [ Come on! Constitution … meaningful american law … Don’t make me laugh! Wake up from the deep american sleep! Going through the motions, flag pins, etc., ad nauseum, like a bunch of zombies! ] Krauthammer: It's a promising step to a conservative future. Wash Post Staffer: Constitution Impossible to Understand Because It’s Over 100 Years Old [ In a meaningfully lawless society as pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt america, constitution / laws have become irrelevant in application and effect. After all, even zimbabwe has a constitution / laws, but I dare say no one would suggest they have any practical effect in reality, as is also so in america. I therefore believe Mr. Klein is correct but for reasons other than age and malleability. Indeed, anyone who has written a legal brief and researched law in support thereof, ultimately realizes that almost invariably one can find some case / law in support of almost any position. In america today, it’s the bribe, one way or another, that carries the day and makes the difference. Ask sam alito et als. That’s just the way it is in a declining, fallen society as america, zimbawe, etc.. That’s certainly my direct, sworn experience with these corrupt courts constituting (in large part along with the other 3 branches) pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt america’s illegal system. Senate convicts Clinton-appointed judge... [ Come on! One way or another they’re almost all getting bribed; including the initial lifetime appointment as alito, trump-barry, etc.. Abolish the corrupt, costly, economically wasteful lifetime extravagantly appointed federal courts (see RICO case http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm ) End those lifetime licenses to steal. ] In earlier hearings, two attorneys who once worked with Porteous had testified that they gave him thousands of dollars in cash, including about $2,000 stuffed in an envelope in 1999, just before Porteous decided a major civil case in their client's favor. ] Breitbart | On word that the House will open its next session with a first-ever reading of the U.S. Constitution, blogger Ezra Klein suggests that the Constitution is irrelevant due to its age and politically-malleable language. ]Eight key economic decisions of the Obama presidency all point in one direction.

Oh come on! Watch for the fake jobs report from the ever more desperate, pervasively corrupt, incompetent, failed, defacto bankrupt u.s. government (all 3 branches)! Who can believe anything they say? … Drudgereport: WObama the b for b*** s*** calls Gibbs $174,000 salary 'relatively modest' ( Come on! In pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt america, government jobs for the otherwise unemployable at those levels are over-priced and over-valued, as are other so-called executive jobs, ie., fraudulent wall street, etc.. Look at their results! )... …[video] ADP Data Still Fighting For Credibility [ Come on! Pervasively mob infested, corrupt jersey based ADP? There’s nothin’ left in desperation for those b.s. / b.e.(bad economics/finance) talking points and action to froth the market for the frauds on wall street. This is an especially great opportunity to sell / take profits because there’s nothin’ there, beyond the smoke and mirrors. This market’s way over-bought and way over-valued! ] NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Alan Valdes of DME Securities says the market focused on the job revision data as ADP is still viewed with skepticism.

1 in 6 Americans Live in Poverty Tradermark ‘One of the biggest mega trends happening in America is the bifurcation of society between the haves and the have nots. Many of the jobs the 'underclass' once did are gone forever, while others spent freely when times were good, and when the tide turned, have little buffer. [Dec 8, 2007: Do the Bottom 80% of Americans Stand a Chance?] After all, saving for a rainy day is what boring people do. Others really never got off the ground, as the K-12 education system has degraded dramatically the past few decades.Frankly the underlying trend - as bad as it is on the surface - has been hidden by multiple bubbles, and most recently, there has been a level of government assistance never seen before. [Nov 5, 2010: USA Today - Anti-Poverty Programs Surpass Cost of Medicare] In terms of government spending. This brings up a host of issues as any changes to the social safety net are going to send millions past GO and directly to impoverished status (and yes there are people gaming the system, but not tens of millions). There are myriad societal effects of the transformation of America from a relative egalitarian society in the 1960s to a 2 or 3 class system - but those are topics for other posts we have done.The official U.S. government tally of who is living in poverty is a joke. We last looked at it about 16 months ago [Sep 19, 2009: US Poverty Rises to 11 Year High - But Still Vastly Understated] For example, if you make $23,000 for a family of 4 - you are not in poverty. If you are single and make $14,000 you are not in poverty. I'm not sure in what counties except for rural Mississippi you can accomplish that cost of living, but apparently the government believes a middle class lifestyle is available at $25K for a family of 4 in all of America. Or at least it would be inconvenient to admit otherwise. And yes once more let me put the caveat that being "poor" in America is different than being poor in Malawi, but in theory we should be comparing ourselves to other first world countries.The AP has an interesting report of a new measure of poverty in the U.S., based on the census. It has a different band of parameters and shows an increase over the government's incredibly generous definition of poverty. What is striking is the large increase in those in the over 65+ camp who fall into poverty. Due to our consumption culture (encouraged by the government at every turn, since we've transformed our economy from good producing to services and consumption) many are entering the golden years with little to nothing.Where once many had their mortgage paid off by the time they retired and hence could live on a much lower income as their largest expense was eliminated, now after a generation of serial refinancing and cash out to finance buying 'what we deserve', many still have the mortgage to worry about even at age 70+. There are many other factors we've discussed often - i.e. the move from pensions to do it yourself savings in a country where saving is a sin and spending is worshiped, the disaster that is the 401k system, etc. Unlike the mortgage crisis which is playing out in a relative short period of time (6-8 years), this grand economic experiment of running an economy on consumption & services (you do my nails, I'll cut your hair, you serve me a beer, I'll cut your lawn, you build a house, I'll default on it) is taking decades to play out. But we're starting to see the first wave of results the past 5-10 years, and it's not pretty.Bigger picture, there are enormous stresses being formed at the bottom end of the society, and more and more are being caught in the net. Anyone who truly believes there will be any serious spending cuts at the federal level does not realize the (increasing) dependency that has been created by the a multitude of poor decisions over the past few decades. Indeed we fast approach the time when 1 in every 5 dollars of "income" are government transfers. [May 25, 2010: 1 in 5.5 Dollars of American Income Now Via Government; All time High] At this point, the genie is out of the bottle and with a dysfunctional government whose only solution is layer on more debt to kick the can down the road, our modern day plutonomy only grows in power. [Sep 7, 2009: Citigroup - America; A Modern Day Plutonomy] However, there appears nothing to be worried about since we've been well trained to parrot the fact that as long as the S&P 500 only goes up, everything in America is fine. Nothing to see here, move along (buy stocks as you are moving of course).
Via AP

• The number of poor people in the U.S. is millions higher than previously known, with 1 in 6 Americans -- many of them 65 and older -- struggling in poverty due to rising medical care and other costs, according to preliminary census figures released Wednesday.
• At the same time, government aid programs such as tax credits and food stamps kept many people out of poverty, helping to ensure the poverty rate did not balloon even higher during the recession in 2009, President Barack Obama's first year in office.
• Under a new revised census formula, overall poverty in 2009 stood at 15.7 percent, or 47.8 million people. That's compared to the official 2009 rate of 14.3 percent, or 43.6 million, that was reported by the Census Bureau last September.
• Across all demographic groups, Americans 65 and older sustained the largest increases in poverty under the revised formula -- nearly doubling to 16.1 percent. As a whole, working-age adults 18-64 also saw increases in poverty, as well as whites and Hispanics. Children, blacks and unmarried couples were less likely to be considered poor under the new measure.
• The new measure will not replace the official poverty rate but will be published alongside the traditional figure this fall as a "supplement" for federal agencies and state governments to determine anti-poverty policies. Economists have long criticized the official poverty measure as inadequate because it only includes pretax cash income and does not account for medical, transportation and work expenses. (much like inflation, as long as you don't eat, use energy, pay for healthcare, or have kids in college - you are fine. For poverty as long as you don't go to the doctor, need to drive to work, need daycare, or wear clothes at work - your income is sufficient)
• "Under the new measure, we can clearly see the effects of our government policies," said Kathleen Short, a Census Bureau research economist who calculated the revised poverty numbers. "When you're accounting for in-kind benefits and tax credits, you're bringing many people in extreme poverty off the very bottom."
• The official measure is based on a 1955 cost of an emergency food diet and does not factor in other living costs. (that is perverse) Nor does it consider non-cash government aid when calculating income, which surged higher in 2009 during the recession.
• The effect was seen most notably among older Americans. Under the official poverty rate, about 8.9 percent lived in poverty, mostly because they benefit from Social Security cash payments. But when taking into account out-of-pocket medical expenses and other factors, that number rises to 16.1 percent.
• Among the findings:
  --Without the earned income tax credit, the poverty rate under the revised formula would jump from 15.7 percent to 17.7 percent.
• --The absence of food stamps separately would increase the poverty rate to 17.2 percent.
  --Taking into account millions of uninsured people in the U.S. had little effect in increasing poverty, mostly because those without insurance tend to forgo medical care rather than find ways to pay for it.

[Feb 20, 2009: NYT - Newly Poor Swell Lines @ Food Banks Nationwide]

[Oct 22, 2010: Reuters - The Haves, the Have Nots, and the Dreamless Dead]

[Sep 3, 2010: FT.com - The Crisis in Middle America]
[July 26, 2010: [Video] DatelineNBC - America's Increasing Ranks of Poor]

original article’

Unemployment Claims Are Not What They Appear Adler ‘First-time unemployment claims rose by 52,038 to 577,279 in the week that ended January 1. The Wall Street captive media is, as usual, fudging the reports by reporting that claims were at 409,000, based on the seasonal hocus pocus. They report an uptick of 18,000 instead of 52,000. Both Dow Jones and Bloomberg are emphasizing that the 4 week moving average dropped sharply. Again, this is based on seasonally adjusted fudge packing.The truth is that while this year's end of year rise in claims is better than the past two years, the numbers are still a lot worse than during good economic times. This week’s jump of 52k compares with a rise of 88,929 in the week that ended 1/2/10. The chart below shows that the normal seasonal uptrend is at a lower trend level than the past two years, but well above 2006-2008. The insured unemployment rate remains well above the 2004-2008 period. However, even that number may be misleading because it uses a base number comprised of a 6 month average from the period that ended in June. Because fewer people are now eligible, the actual rate should be higher.[chart]Because new claims are limited to those eligible, part of the downtrend in new claims is due to the millions of persons losing eligibility. To account for that, the next chart shows new claims as a percentage of those eligible. Here the improving trend shows evidence of leveling off. The normal seasonal spike at the beginning of January needs to hold around .053% to keep the downtrend from the peaks of the past 2 years intact. The green line connects the most recent week with the same week in prior years. Next week’s data should be the seasonal peak.[chart]The Department of Labor calculates the total number of covered employees quarterly, using a 6 month average. The current figure is based on data from the first half of 2010, which is not very useful now. However, it does imply that much of the drop in continuing claims has come from those losing eligibility.[chart]The following chart shows Continued Claims on an inverse scale, overlaid with stock prices and Fed securities holdings. The inverse Continued Claims graph is a directional proxy for total employment. The downtick at this time of year is normal. The trend remains strong which suggests that the seasonally adjusted payrolls data tomorrow should be positive. The consensus calls for a gain of 140,000. As I reported in the Wall Street Examiner Professional Edition Treasury update to subscribers this week, wage tax withholding in December ran 15% ahead of November, but that probably reflects withholding from year end bonuses rather than a significant increase in employment levels. The year to year gain was more muted.[chart]It’s pretty clear from this chart that the Fed is the driver of these trends, but that other forces are at work causing diminishing returns.Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.’

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