Tuesday, January 11, 2011

January 10, 2011 posts

Business / Economic / Financial

[ This link to a somewhat more cumulative blog posts page will precede current days news since most all topics remain current in terms of impact and longer-term effect and can be searched by topical index term more easily. The same is provided since the blog site http://alpeiablog.blogspot.com has just been censored as to size by google which is typical for google as nsa / cia / gov’t shill as more are becoming aware of. The same is true for microsoft, another co. that’s seen their best days and relies on the government to maintain their monopoly. Up to now the better page http://www.scribd.com/alpeia is provided for ease of formatting and clarity thereby while the Washington Post page is the real deal but without formatting http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/community/mypost/index.html?plckPersonaPage=PersonaComments&plckUserId=alpeia&newspaperUserId=alpeia . The following is the cumulative archive of blog posts / topics for 2010 as the new year starts anew: http://albertpeia.com/December312010postsarchive.htm or PDF formatted version
http://albertpeia.com/December312010postsarchive.pdf ]

Merger would create largest U.S. utility (Washington Post) [ Well, sounds like a plan. That trend to ‘bigger the better’ / too big to fail thing. Down only a penny in today’s trading. I’d call that a vote of confidence by fraudulent wall street. Why, you can almost hear the wall street frauds cheering to the tune of that familiar cheer, ‘We must, we must … increase the nation’s potential economic bust … the bigger the better, the lesser the vetter … the better the government boys will like us.! ] Duke Energy announces a $13.7 billion merger deal with Raleigh, N.C.-based Progress Energy.

Watchdog over Afghan reconstruction resigns (Washington Post) [ Wow! Sounds like he really meant business … which also meant, congress ‘hearing footsteps’ so to speak, that he had to go. After all, applying a stringent standard that promises to do something about fraud and corruption is a standard that would threaten the entire u.s. government … all three branches. ] Arnold Fields, the head of the office charged with investigating corruption in the multibillion-dollar effort to rebuild Afghanistan has resigned, the White House said, following congressional demands that he be replaced.

Government contractor ATS shifts gears (Washington Post) [ Now granted … this is northern virginia, alphabet soup kitchen territory (part of the Washington d.c. governement mob)… rivaled in corruption only by such other pervasively mob infested states as jersey (multi-ethnic mob), new york (Italian, jewish, irish, wall street), Connecticut (whatever new york and d.c. says, mob), California (multi-ethnic mob, young gangs movin’ up, local government / bureaucracies mob), and of course the corrupt courts in all 5, but there’s somethin’ strange in the neighborhood here. I mean, 1 weak or I mean 1 week tenure and probably want to just give him some money. "We need to do something to get those shareholders replaced by other shareholders - whether it be one big shareholder or several smaller ones," said Bersoff, ‘who was the company's previous chief executive.’ This is the first statement of its kind I’ve ever encountered in modern day finance, such as it is. Then there’s that ‘government contractor thing’. Could it be that the michael corleones of the cia want to ‘legitimize’ their enterprises which have included illicit drugs, arms, etc.? All we really know is that Sidney … Fuchs. ] CEO Sidney E. Fuchs resigns as the company announces its intention to pursue strategic alternatives, including a possible sale.

China as Europe's white knight? (Washington Post) [ White knight? I don’t think so. Yellow night and day, I think yes. Not to impugn their motives, but the Book of Ecclesiastes said it well: "What has been is what will be, and what has been done is what will be done; and there is nothing new under the sun"

· Heartland Diary of Betty B.: Confessions of an Economic Hit Man

Jun 18, 2007 ... John Perkins' career as an economic hit man (EHM) has taken him all over the globe. He details his activities as an EHM in his best-seller ...
heartlanddiaryofbettyb.blogspot.com/.../confessions-of-economic-hit-man.html - Cached - Similar

· Confessions of an Economic Hit Man - Cobb

Mar 23, 2007 ... Confessions of an Economic Hitman by John Perkins is an exclamation point riddled history of a few financial manipulations of the Cold War ...
cobb.typepad.com/cobb/2007/03/confessions_of_.html - Cached - Similar

· Daily Kos: NPR: Confessions of an Economic Hit Man

Aug 9, 2006 ... rustydude's diary :: :: The reason I bring it up within the ..... I am thrilled to hear all this support for the Economic Hit Man book since ...
www.dailykos.com/story/2006/8/10/04532/7753 - Cached - Similar

· Cinema Libre Acquires 'Economic Hit Man' | TheWrap.com

Jul 13, 2010 ... In 2008, Greek writer/director Stelios Koul made a documentary about Perkins entitled “Diary of an Economic Hit Man.” ...
www.thewrap.com/.../cinema-libre-acquires-economic-hit-man-19179 - Cached

] Traders are speculating that cash-rich China may step in and buy hard-hit European bonds.

Will: Half-baked explanations for tragedy (Washington Post) [ Half-baked? Charlatans? The foregoing are in no short supply in defacto bankrupt, meaningfully lawless, pervasively corrupt, fraud prevalent america. See, for example, RICO case http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm . Moreover, Mr. Will as an oftimes apologist for war criminal, pervasively fraud-prone, defacto bankrupt, etc., america, with crime rates exceeding by far those of any other so-called civilized nations, might indeed find himself among those he’s so categorized. Among the last separate page sections to my website will be a somewhat detailed pschoanalytic evolutionary profile of the u.s. (one might ask who am I to do so which is fair comment to which I would reply, read it, or not, your choice). However, for the nonce, let me say that the it is no small coincidence that the 20th century has been dubbed ‘the american century’. That the 20th century has been considered the bloodiest is at once the natural concomitant of the foregoing reality. Keeping in mind the so-called ‘selective’ processes in both insurance (adverse) and evolutionary (Darwinian) terms, and as well, the psychology of it all from a behavioral perspective, america has indeed evolved. From the genocide of indigenous populations, to outlandish propaganda in support of same (ie., that ‘manifest destiny’ balderdash with overtones of religiosity spoonfed since elementary school, etc.), to contrived conflict / war, such, euphemistically bad behavior has been reinforced, some of which conditioning not always purposeful, ie., the ever greater frauds perpetrated on wall street for which there have been in large part no real punitive consequences to the perpetrators; but, to the contrary, great financial rewards though substantially detrimental to the majority. Despite the surface appeal, that oft asserted ‘blue-blood’ distinction doesn’t pass muster. Aside from the few seeking seeking religious freedom (ie., Puritans among some others), most then new americans were such disaffected rejects of their former homelands that desperation at best was motivation for travel to the wilds of the ‘so-called new world’ as opposed to intelligent, rational choice; criminals, mentally ill, the not-so-bright but ruthless populating the new nation in disparate numbers toward the ends consistent with greed and common criminality, corruption, and venality. As of the age of the dinosaurs, the american century has passed into the annals of a history replete with self-generating terrorism within and without (that blowback thing). DRUDGEREPORT: NATION SHOCKED: CONGRESSWOMAN SHOT IN TUCSON
SCARY FREAK!
THE DEVIL MADE HIM DO IT: TUCSON SHOOTER'S TWISTED SKULL SHRINE...
Described by Classmate as 'Left-Wing Pothead'...
Family of suspect blocks FBI access to house...
Shooter Smirks in Court, Smiles for Mug Shot...
Was registered independent; Didn't vote in Nov. '10 election...
'SHERIFF' BLAMES RUSH LIMBAUGH FOR MASSACRE?
CONGRESSWOMAN READIES GUN CONTROL BILL...
Dem planning bill that would outlaw 'threatening' lawmakers...
...'use language or symbols that could be perceived as inciting violence'

OBAMA FLASHBACK: 'If They Bring a Knife to the Fight, We Bring a Gun'...
SAFEWAY MASSACRE...
UPDATE...
SLAIN JUDGE WANTED TO TALK TO REP. ABOUT SURGE IN BORDER CRIME...
WIRE...
Suspect scrawled: 'I planned ahead'...
Obsessed With Mind Control...
Described by Classmate as 'Left-Wing Pothead'...
Trade war looming, warns Brazil...

Tensions rise in currency wars...
Pressure on Portugal heightens...

GLOBAL ORDER: Sarkozy takes case to Obama as food prices soar...
Greece borrowing rates hit new record...
Pentagon concerned over China's rapid development of new weapons...

Economists foretell of U.S. decline, China's ascension...
SAFEWAY MASSACRE...
VIDEO...
6 Dead, 12 injured...
Dem Rep. Gabrielle Giffords shot through brain; critical after surgery, doctors 'optimistic'...
Federal Judge Killed...
WIRE...
CAPITOL POLICE URGES CONGRESS TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS...
BOEHNER: 'An attack on one who serves is an attack on all who serve'...

OBAMA: 'UNSPEAKABLE TRAGEDY'...
Gunman ID'ed as Jared Loughner, 22... YOUTUBE...PHOTOS...
Obsessed With Mind Control...
MYSPACE GENERATION: Suspect Says Goodbye Online: 'Please don't be mad at me -- I cannot rest'...
14 decapitated bodies found in Mexico resort city...
NUMBER OF COMBAT INJURIES IN AFGHANISTAN APPROACHES IRAQ-WAR LEVELS...
WIKILEAKS: US demanding our TWITTER account info...

WIKILEAKS demands GOOGLE and FACEBOOK unseal US subpoenas...
New data collected from sensors left on moon in 1971 [ Riiiiight! … and if you’ve seen the beginning of 2001:Space Odyssey (the monolith), you’ve already seen it! ] ...
Euro Crisis Roars to Forefront...
Portugal's debt worries worsen...
UN warns Greece on anti-migrant fence...
NJ police: Man seeking 'portal to hell' stabbed 2...

Unprincipled Liberals Exploit an Insane Loughner to Condemn Political Opposition Kurt Nimmo | So called progressives are not opposed to the state’s monopoly on power and violence, so long as they are part of the state or its propaganda apparatus.

Washington Post Concedes: Gunman Acted On Mental Illness, Not Political Rhetoric Tucson shooter Jared Lee Loughner was not affiliated with any political party and failed to vote in the 2010 election, further bolstering the fact that his rampage was borne out of a deranged mental illness and had nothing to do with him reacting to vitriolic rhetoric put out by anti-government activists, as the establishment media and their liberal attack dog blogs have ceaselessly claimed in an effort to eviscerate the First Amendment.

Eyewitness “Shooter Was Ready For War!” He Had More Magazines & Attempted To Load One Joe Zamudio was one of the eyewitnesses that helped pin down the gunman. He reports that Loughner had several more magazines and was trying to reload. Another fact that the establishment media are loathe to report is that Zamudio was a responsible gun owner who was carrying his firearm and was prepared to use it to stop the carnage if necessary.

Leftists Attack Parents Of Murdered 9-Year-Old How low will some people stoop to play at partisan politics by exploiting the weekend’s tragic events? We’ve already seen the bar set pretty damn low by elements of the media and some public officials, yet its hard to imagine how much further anyone can go than to verbally attack the parents of the slain 9 year old Christina Taylor Green.

Vultures May Exploit Tragedy To Push “Subversives” Legislation Every single day, crazed lunatics claim the lives of innocent people; sometimes it’s a premeditated crime, sometimes it’s a crime of passion, sometimes it’s a complete accident, sometimes it’s an act of terror, and sometimes people are just in the wrong place at the wrong time when a 500 pound bomb is dropped over Afghanistan.

Another Tragedy Vulture Exploits Victims To Push Political Agenda To Kill Free Speech U.S. Rep. Jim Clyburn, the third-ranking Democrat in Congress, said Sunday the deadly shooting in Arizona should get the country thinking about what’s acceptable to say publicly and when people should keep their mouths shut.

Threatening To “Kick The Bums Out” Could Be Outlawed Under New Legislation Rep. Robert Brady (D-Pa.) reportedly plans to introduce legislation that would make it a federal crime to use language or symbols that could be perceived as threatening or inciting violence against a federal official or member of Congress.

Leftists Attack Parents Of Murdered 9-Year-Old Steve Watson | The dignity and class of the parents of Christina Taylor Green does not fit neatly into the partisan political script.

Washington Post Concedes: Gunman Acted On Mental Illness, Not Political Rhetoric Paul Joseph Watson | Loughner was not affiliated with Tea Party or conservatives.

Bombshell: Arizona Killer “Very Liberal” Kurt Nimmo | Democrats and liberal talking heads have taken Rahm Emanuel’s maxim to heart – never let good crisis go to waste – and are

Liberal Smear Machine Backfires After Gunman Found To Be Occultist, Pot-Smoking Left Winger Alex Jones & Paul Joseph Watson | Effort to conflate killer with anti-big government conservatives falls apart.

Establishment Media Demonizes Tea Party and Constitutionalists After Giffords Shooting Kurt Nimmo | Propaganda campaign begins with faux Tea Party queen Palin, will spread to the real movement in days ahead.

Arizona Assassin Obsessed With Mind Control Paul Joseph Watson | Loughner was a US military recruit who was obsessed with mind control, mirroring the circumstances of many other mass shooters in history.

Political Hacks Waste No Time In Shamelessly Exploiting Giffords Shooting To Demonize Political Oppositon Paul Joseph Watson | Before it’s even been confirmed that Giffords is dead, neo-lib statists are already shamelessly milking the shocking events for political gain.

Who’s Behind the Congresswoman’s shooting in Arizona? Infowars | Will the tragic shooting stoke anti-gun legislation, fuel the flames of War on Terror or signal random violence amid a chaotic political climate?

Arizona Assassin Obsessed With Mind Control Jared Loughner, the gunman who shot Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords and numerous other victims including a Federal Judge and a nine-year-old girl during a political event in Tuscon today, was a US military recruit who was obsessed with mind control, mirroring the circumstances of many other mass shooters in history.

Political Hacks Waste No Time In Shamelessly Exploiting Giffords Shooting To Demonize Political Oppositon Political hacks have wasted little time in exploiting the tragic shooting of Democratic Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords to demonize their political opposition despite the gunman’s motivation being completely unknown at this time.

Who’s Behind the Congresswoman’s Shooting in Arizona? With so many other psuedo-events in the War on Terror lately, including package bombs, FBI stings and set-ups and the like, it is entirely possible this was a false-flag event designed to clampdown on gun ownership or simply stoke the fear of radical Muslim or homegrown terrorists.

The New York Times Is One to Talk About Rhetoric and Violence Kurt Nimmo | The New York Times and Judith Miller sold mass murder to America.

SPLC blames Ayn Rand, David Icke and Others for Arizona Shooting Aaron Dykes | Who is to blame for Jared Loughner’s bizarre shooting yesterday? According to Mark Potok, anyone with even the vaguest links to his bizarre and disjointed online ramblings. ]

14 Eye Opening Statistics Which Reveal Just How Dramatically The U.S. Economy Has Collapsed Since 2007 Most Americans have become so accustomed to the “new normal” of continual economic decline that they don’t even remember how good things were just a few short years ago. ‘The Economic Collapse Jan 10, 2011

’Most Americans have become so accustomed to the “new normal” of continual economic decline that they don’t even remember how good things were just a few short years ago. Back in 2007, unemployment was very low, good jobs were much easier to get, far fewer Americans were living in poverty or enrolled in welfare programs and government finances were in much better shape. Of course most of this prosperity was fueled by massive amounts of debt, but at least times were better. Unfortunately, things have really deteriorated over the last several years. Since 2007, unemployment has skyrocketed, foreclosures have set new all-time records, personal bankruptcies have soared and U.S. government debt has gotten completely and totally out of control. Poll after poll has shown that Americans are now far less optimistic about the future than they were in 2007. It is almost as if the past few years have literally sucked the hope out of millions upon millions of Americans.

Sadly, our economic situation is continually getting worse. Every month the United States loses more factories. Every month the United States loses more jobs. Every month the collective wealth of U.S. citizens continues to decline. Every month the federal government goes into even more debt. Every month state and local governments go into even more debt.

Unfortunately, things are going to get even worse in the years ahead. Right now we look back on 2005, 2006 and 2007 as “good times”, but in a few years we will look back on 2010 and 2011 as “good times”.

We are in the midst of a long-term economic decline, and the very bad economic choices that we have been making as a nation for decades are now starting to really catch up with us.

So as horrible as you may think that things are now, just keep in mind that things are going to continue to deteriorate in the years ahead.

But for the moment, let us remember how far we have fallen over the past few years. The following are 14 eye opening statistics which reveal just how dramatically the U.S. economy has collapsed since 2007….

#1 In November 2007, the official U.S. unemployment rate was just 4.7 percent. Today, the official U.S. unemployment rate is 9.4 percent.

#2 In November 2007, 18.8% of unemployed Americans had been out of work for 27 weeks or longer. Today that percentage is up to 41.9%.

#3 As 2007 began, there were just over 1 million Americans that had been unemployed for half a year or longer. Today, there are over 6 million Americans that have been unemployed for half a year or longer.

#4 Nearly 10 million Americans now receive unemployment insurance, whichis almost four times as many as were receiving it back in 2007.

#5 More than half of the U.S. labor force (55 percent) has “suffered a spell of unemployment, a cut in pay, a reduction in hours or have become involuntary part-time workers” since the “recession” began in December 2007.

#6 According to one analysis, the United States has lost a total of approximately 10.5 million jobs since 2007.

#7 As 2007 began, only 26 million Americans were on food stamps. Today, an all-time record of 43.2 million Americans are enrolled in the food stamp program.

#8 In 2007, the U.S. government held a total of $725 billion in mortgage debt. As of the middle of 2010, the U.S. government held a total of $5.148 trillion in mortgage debt.

#9 In the year prior to the “official” beginning of the most recent recession in 2007, the IRS filed just 684,000 tax liens against U.S. taxpayers. During 2010, the IRS filed over a million tax liens against U.S. taxpayers.

#10 From the year 2000 through the year 2007, there were 27 bank failures in the United States. From 2008 through 2010, there were 314 bank failures in the United States.

#11 According to the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, the number of U.S. families with children living in homeless sheltersincreased from 131,000 to 170,000 between 2007 and 2009.

#12 In 2007, one poll found that 43 percent of Americans were living “paycheck to paycheck”. Sadly, according to a survey released very close to the end of 2010, approximately 55 percent of all Americans are now living paycheck to paycheck.

#13 In 2007, the “official” federal budget deficit was just 161 billion dollars. In 2010, the “official” federal budget deficit was approximately 1.3 trillion dollars.

#14 As 2007 began, the U.S. national debt was just under 8.7 trillion dollars. Today, the U.S. national debt has just surpassed 14 trillion dollars and it continues to soar into the stratosphere.

So is there any hope that we can turn all of this around?

Unfortunately, the massive amount of debt that we have piled up as a society over the last several decades has made that impossible.

If you add up all forms of debt (government debt, business debt, individual debt), it comes to approximately 360 percent of GDP. It is the biggest debt bubble in the history of the world.

If the federal government and our state governments stop borrowing and spending so much money, our economy would collapse. But if they keep borrowing and spending so much money they will continually make the eventual economic collapse even worse.

We are in the terminal stages of the most horrific debt spiral the world has ever seen, and when the debt spiral gets stopped the house of cards is going to finally come down for good.

So enjoy these times while you still have them. Yes, today is not nearly as prosperous as 2007 was, but today is most definitely a whole lot better than 2015 or 2020 is going to be.

Sadly, we could have avoided this financial disaster completely if only we had listened more carefully to those that founded this nation. Once upon a time, Thomas Jefferson said the following….

I wish it were possible to obtain a single amendment to our Constitution. I would be willing to depend on that alone for the reduction of the administration of our government to the genuine principles of its Constitution; I mean an additional article, taking from the federal government the power of borrowing.’

Options Data Suggests Topping Action - ‘What the market's rally lacks in charisma, it has made up in persistence. The stair-step, creeping type of an up grind is lulling investors to sleep as we speak. Steady and seemingly risk-free gains have rekindled optimism and created a state of euphoria not seen in years ... since late 2007 to be exact.The irony of this article is that few investors will feel compelled to read anything that resembles a warning or contains a bearish message. The few that read this piece will probably scoff at it. That's how bear market rallies work and that's why they are effective.The soothing rhythm of the VIX (NYSEArca: VXX - News) has lulled investors into a state of complacency. If you had to describe investor's alertness in sleep lingo, a state of REM sleep would probably be the closest comparison.History tells us that the (bear) market only strikes when least expected.Based on analyst polls by Bloomberg, Barron's, USA Today and a variety of sentiment measures, a stock market (NYSEArca: VTI - News) decline is as remote today as it was in 2000 or 2007.

Hedging Activity Drops

Investors and traders are content to hold on to massive long positions without hedge. One of the easiest ways to hedge your stock portfolio is via put options. Last week the CBOE Equity Put/Call Ratio dropped to 0.4, the lowest reading since April 15, 2010.The lack of hedging is dangerous for prices because the market is without a safety net. The only option for spooked investors without hedge is to sell. Selling causes prices to drop.On April 16, 2010, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter warned of the consequences of a low put/call ratio: 'Selling results in more selling. This negative feedback loop usually results in rapidly falling prices. The pieces are in place for a major decline. We are simply waiting for the proverbial first domino to fall over and set off a chain reaction.'The first domino dropped just a few days later, setting off the May 6 'Flash Crash' and ultimately resulted in a swift 15% correction for the Dow (DJI: ^DJI), 17% correction for the S&P (SNP: ^GSPC), 19% for the Nasdaq (Nasdaq: ^IXIC), and 21% for the Russell 2000 (NYSEArca: IWM - News).A different measure of complacency is the premium traders willingness to pay for call options (bullish bets). Based on a three-month average, the price for put options (bearish bets) is near a 10-year low. The only other time that rivals current readings was in 2007.

This Time is Different

The spirit of 'this time is different' is one of the most fascinating phenomenons known to Wall Street. Investors' sentiment follows the ebb and flow of stock prices. When prices are up, the future is expected to be bright. When prices are down, the future is supposedly bleak (just think of the 2007 peak and 2009 bottom).This approach of linear extrapolations feeds the herding mentality, which contrarians use as effective indicators. This approach is not foolproof but, nevertheless, is one of the most accurate, if not the most accurate timing tool known to underground Wall Street aficionadosThe chart below (taken from the January 2011 ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter) illustrates the four most prominent occurrences of extreme optimism, or the 'this time is different' effect. The green line connects the price of the S&P with the timeline and various sentiment gauges. [chart] Investors thought 'this time is different' at the 2007 peak, in May 2008, in January 2010, and again in April 2010. The only thing different at all four times was the velocity of the descent, but each period of euphoria was greeted by despair.

Optimism and Bad News

If you had a chance to watch CNBC's 60 Minutes over the past two weeks, you are aware of some possible 'Black Swan' events.Scott Pelley's introduction to Ben Bernanke's interview couldn't have been more sobering: 'That is the worst recovery we've ever seen. Ben Bernanke is concerned. Chairmen of the Fed rarely do interviews, but this week Bernanke feels he has to speak out because he believes his critics may not understand how much trouble the economy is in.'The financial media, however, ignored Ben Bernanke's sobering assessment of the economy and focused on the silver lining: A bad economy may lead to QE3 and its cousins QE4 and QE5. What's better, an improving economy or more QE? Apparently QE is just as good as more jobs.Another 60 Minutes focused on the next big thing; Municipal and state defaults. In the two years since the 'Great Recession,' states have collectively spent nearly half a trillion dollars more than they collected. There's a trillion dollar hole in their public pension fund and according to New Jersey's Governor, the day of reckoning is near.Meredith Whitney, one of the few analysts who foresaw the bubble building in banks (NYSEArca: KBE - News) and financials (NYSEArca: XLF - News) believes at least part of the three trillion municipal bond market will unravel within the next year.For much of 2010 municipal bonds were brewing their own little bubble. As it is common with bubbles, they are rarely foreseen by the public eye. In the case of muni bonds, yield hungry investors ignored the red flags.On August 26, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter warned that it is time to get out of muni bonds, corporate bonds and Treasuries. Muni-bonds topped on August 26 and have since given up more than two years worth of gains.

History Rhymes

Yes, history doesn't repeat itself but it often rhymes. In 2007, Merrill Lynch's Global Economics Report foresaw a bright future: 'The Merrill Lynch global economics team believes that the economy will continue to grow in 2007 - with no sign of a significant cyclical slowdown.'According to J.P. Morgan, Barclays Capital and Goldman Sachs (Merrill Lynch failed to foresee its own demise in 2007 and is no more), the S&P will gain between 15 - 20% in 2011 and the 'economy will continue to grow in 2011.'Perhaps this time will be different, but based on history, now is the time to at least be cautious and protect your investments. An ounce of protection is worth more than a pound of cure. Based on long-term valuation metrics the stock market is priced to deliver pain, not gain (see November 2011 ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter for a detailed analysis).Based on sentiment, the market is overheated and due for a correction at the very least, and how often have we seen a correction turn into something more? Timing a top is tricky, but based on support and resistance levels and seasonal patterns it is possible to narrow down when the market is ready to roll over.The ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter includes the next resistance likely to mark the end of this rally and important structural support. A close below this important support level will probably break the bulls' spirit and the market's streak.’

Can the Unshortable Market Be Shorted? [ I do not consider short-selling an investment strategy, but rather a speculation that is only for the extremely few, lucky and hence successful speculators who are also capable and prepared to lose more than their investment principal.] TraderMark ‘I have called this the unshortable market for many months as it acts very strangely. Again it is not so much the move up that is strange as the total inability for even short-term pitstops in the months of September, October, December and thus far January. November was an outlier event due to Ireland ...save for those headline events, I am sure November would have acted similar to the other months. Frankly, as a contrarian, when you hear people talking about unshortable markets you want to fade that...but doing so the past many months would have ripped your face off. So do we just give up until Jul 1 and QE2 ends? I doubt it will be that convenient. During QE1, there were at least a few pullbacks...summer 09 comes to mind. Further, almost every strategist now thinks SP 1400 to 1425 is in the bag for year end 2011. The problem is, we are about 10% away from that target just days into the year. Considering there are 11 more first days of the month this year (which are now almost always up) and 51 more Mondays (which lead to morning gap ups about 80% of the time nowadays) that does not leave much leeway for Monday afternoons through Friday for price appreciation. Unless we are headed to a repeat of fed-induced bubble mania circa 1999…’



New Ponzi Scheme: Blame Bernie [ Which one? Which ‘weak end at bernie’s’? Bernie bernanke or madoff? As usual, where’s the DOJ? ‘The SEC seeks an injunction, DISGORGEMENT and civil penalties’. Now note that that disgorgement thing has yet to be applied to the gargantuan frauds on wall street. Indeed, now flush with cash from legislative (mark to anything change in FASB rules) and fed (new bubble) help, the frauds on wall street are cashing out bonuses exceeding $144 billion. For those who think there’s no economic damage attendant to such frauds as those perpetrated by the frauds on wall street which the computer-programmed high-frequencey churn-and-earn continuing as we speak, take further note of this disaster called the defacto bankrupt u.s. economy that the slicker, though less blatant than the fraud that follows which pales in comparison to that bailed out by the u.s. taxpayers at great long-term cost to the nation. ] Singer ‘Frankly, it’s becoming a bit of a broken record. According to a Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Complaint filed on January 6, 2010, a number of Defendants perpetrated a Ponzi scheme – yet another such allegation against another group of alleged fraudsters. Securities and Exchange Commission, Plaintiff, vs. Raymond P. Morris, E & R Holdings, LLC, Wise Financial Holdings, LLC, Momentum Leasing, LLC, James L. Haley, Cornerstone Capital Fund, LLC, Vantage Point Capital, LLC, Jay J. Linford Freedom Group, LLC, and Luc D. Nguyen, Defendants (11CV00021, Utah District Court, January 6, 20100) NOTE: The SEC Complaint contains only allegations. The Defendants are presumed innocent of the charges and it will be the government’s burden to prove the Defendants’ guilt at trial.

Get Yer Scorecards!

  • Raymond P. Morris (“Morris”), age 42, sole owner of E & R Holdings, Wise Financial, and Momentum. Morris has never been registered with the SEC in any capacity and has never been licensed to sell securities. Morris formed, owned and operated E & R Holdings, LLC (“E & R Holdings”), Wise Financial Holdings, LLC (“Wise Financial”), and Momentum Leasing, LLC (“Momentum”)
  • James L. Haley (“Haley”) age 49, sole owner of Cornerstone Capital Fund and Vantage Point Capital. Haley has never been registered with the SEC in any capacity and has never been licensed to sell securities.
  • Luc D. Nguyen, (“Nguyen”), age 40, member of the Utah State Bar and was counsel to Morris and Haley at all times relevant to this Complaint. Nguyen has never held any securities licenses and is not registered with the SEC in any capacity.
  • Jay J. Linford (“Linford”), age 49, sole owner of Freedom Group. Linford has never been registered with the SEC in any capacity and has never been licensed to sell securities.

In the Beginning

The Complaint alleges that Morris first approached Haley (who was in a real estate investment group with Morris), about an exclusive investment that was allegdly started by the owner of the Houston Astros and had generated 20% returns per month for nearly eight years.

Wow, that’s too good to pass up, if you ask me – I mean, geez, the Houston Astros owner started it. And, even more compelling, 20% returns for eight years. Hey, no reason to really check any of that out, right? I mean the Houston Astros are in baseball, and baseball is as American as apple pie, and any deal offering 20% returns that’s so all-American has to be the real thing. Batter up!Morris allegedly told Haley that this hot investment opportunity is based on a capital leasing concept (the “Fund”). Once money is invested in the Fund, Morris purportedly represented that the money would be deposited into an account under Morris’s sole control and would never leave the account.Odd how the investors’ cash never quite seems to get directly deposited into these troubled investments but always seems to wind up offshore, in a conduit, or in some account under someone else’s control. Sort of like when you open a brokerage account and decide to buy 1,000 shares of stock and your stockbroker insists that you write the check for the purchase price made payable to him — why? Oh, well, if you really have to ask, it’s not for you, he says. If you must know, he reluctantly confides in you, it’s so that the brokerage firm can first verify that you have the dollars to buy the stock. I’m doing you a favor, he says, by allowing you to first give me the money. That way you don’t have to worry about getting cleared to buy the stock. You can trust me, I’m your stockbroker.

It all sounds a bit more fishy when I put it like that, doesn’t it?

And what supposedly was the point of depositing the investors’ funds into the Morris-controlled account?

The Complaint alleges that Morris explained to Haley that once investor capital was verified, private traders would obtain large lines of credit and then would invest the proceeds in bonds, hard money lending and small businesses. Morris advised Haley that the return from these investments would be sufficient to guarantee investors a return of 20% per month or more.

Did you get that?

Private traders are out there waiting for those ever-so-urgent phone calls that assure them that cash has been legitimately invested in some account, and once that assurance is given to the private traders, well, you know, they obtain humongous lines of credit. What do the traders do with all that credit? Well, they invest in “bonds, hard money lending and small businesses.” Again, you’d think that investors would do some hardcore homework and confirm all of those representations. However, we would not have these stories and lawsuits if folks went through the trouble of keeping other folks honest – would we?Still – for some reason there are a lot of folks out there – I’ll call them pigeons, if you don’t mind – who seem to have a fire in their wallets and can’t wait to send dollars into yet another Fund that guarantees 20% once some supposed group of private traders obtains verification of deposit and then goes out and leverages the sums on deposit into impressive sounding investments. Apparently, Haley was hot to trot. You understand why, don’t you? The Houston Astros connection. The 20%. The verified funds in someone else’s account. Tough to ask questions or demand proof about something so enticing. (Yes, that’s sarcasm — dripping and heavy).

Ashes to Ashes

Only one problem.Morris told Haley they could not join the Fund unless an existing investor died.My, isn’t that too bad? Clearly this deal is for real because folks are literally dying for other investors to get in. I mean, you know, seriously, no one would possibly make up such a precondition. Course not. You’d have to kill some investor off just to make way for another investor. That’s just nuts.

Eureka!Haley was really, really, really lucky because Morris called Haley with the wonderful news (albeit, quite sad) that one of the few investors in the Fund just dropped dead less than a week after Morris told Haley about this amazing investment opportunity. The Complaint asserts that Morris indicated that if Haley could raise $500,000 in three to five days, they could invest in the Fund.

Happy days!

Getting the Bucks

The Complaint alleges that without conducting any due diligence into Morris or the Fund, Haley began soliciting investments from friends and neighbors and raised $500,000, which he gave to Morris.What did Haley tell his acquaintances? Oh, the Complaint says that he simply repeated Morris’s representations about the whole set-up and further assured the investors that their funds would only be used for “verification of deposit” purposes. I like the sound of that, don’t you? Verifcation of deposit purposes. Me? I’ve only been on Wall Street for about thirty years and although I’m not sure what the hell “verification of deposit purposes” means, I must admit that it sounds pretty impressive. Of course, silly me, I would never write out a check to anyone for something like “verification of deposit purposes” without reviewing all the source documents and confirming the bona fides of the supposed traders and the trades but, then again, I’m just another stupid lawyer.The Complaint alleges that from about August 2007 through June 2008, Haley, through his entities Cornerstone Capital andVantage Point, raised at least $20 million for Morris’s Fund.Oh, and there’s this tidbit: Morris and Haley had entered into an oral agreement that provided a payment of 20% per month on funds Haley raised. Another thing, Haley could determine what portion of his fee he gave back to his investors. Lemme see, 20% of $20 million is like, what?, about $4 million? Not bad for simply getting friends and acquaintances into some verification of deposit purposes thingamajig. I wonder how much of that Haley gave back to the investors?

Enter the Lawyer

Sometime prior to June 2007, Morris and Haley hired Nguyen, a Utah attorney, to assist them with legal matters relating to soliciting investments. Nguyen set up Morris’s and Haley’s investment entities, drafted offering documents, and filed Forms D with the Commission for Morris controlled entities, E & R Holdings, Wise Financial and Momentum, and for Haley controlled entities, Cornerstone Capital and Vantage Point. After setting up the investment entities, the Complaint alleges that Nguyen stepped outside his role as counsel and began soliciting investments. Despite having conducted no due diligence on Morris or the Fund, Nguyen allegedly repeated Morris’s misrepresentations about the Fund to investors.Nguyen is also charged with knowingly making additional false representations to investors, including that he had reviewed the Fund’s documents and had personally spoken with the banks and private traders involved. Nguyen touted the Fund as “one of the best he had ever seen” and told investors he “understood the Fund better than Morris or Haley.” Allegedly, Nguyen told investors that he was an “SEC attorney,” and that the Fund was “one of the best he had ever seen,” and that he had done extensive due diligence into Morris’s Fund and knew the program better than Morris or Haley. Nguyen purportedly told investors he had personally met with the attorneys representing the supposed trading companies involved in the Fund and that he had received copies of all operating agreements between the leasing companies and the trading companies. In fact, Nguyen performed no due diligence on Morris or the Fund, never met with anyone affiliatedNguyen also falsely told investors that he personally had significant assets invested in the Fund. In fact, Nguyen made no capital contributions to the Fund. Oh, and let’s not forget that Nguyen was allegedly paid at least $330,000 from Morris for raising investment funds and was paid at least an additional $58,000 in legal fees.

One More Player

Sometime during the Spring of 2007, Morris met Linford at an investment seminar , and thereafter, Linford is charged with raising about $1 million for the Fund by misrepresenting that the Fund paid returns as high as 100% in seven days with no risk to investor principal.

It’s All Madoff’s Fault

In April 2008, Morris stopped making regular interest payments to investors. Morris gave many explanations to investors, including that Homeland Security had frozen the accounts, that the Madoff case had caused banks to hold funds and that typographical errors in wire request forms had caused delays.Oh, I see, it’s the old Homeland Security-Madoff-Typo-Dog-Ate-My-Homework explanation. Don’t they have a form for that?As investors complained and threatened to go to the SEC and other government agencies, Morris began disseminating phony bank statements falsely showing that he had over $200 million deposited with Wachovia Bank. In late October 2008, Morris gave Nguyen a purported “Bank Confirmation Letter” from Wachovia. This fraudulent letter states that Wachovia “currently holds funds in the amount of…$201,782,567.89…[and] Mr. Raymond Paul Morris is the signatory on this account.” The letter also says “the funds are good, clean and of non-criminal origin, are unencumbered and freely disposable.”In addition to the letter, Morris gave Nguyen a phony “Verification of Depository,” also purporting to be from Wachovia Bank, showing that $201,827,067.89 was in Morris’s account.

Okay, so, let’s at least give these guys credit. It’s not like they came up with a simple round number, such as $201,000,000.00. No, this is more convincing with every place filled with a seemingly plausible number. Can you find the whole numbers from 0 to 9 that are missing? Can you find Waldo?After Nguyen received the bogus “Bank Confirmation Letter” and “Verification of Depository,” the Complaint alleges that he agreed to draft a letter to Morris’s investors, assuring them their funds were safe. Unfortunately, Nguyen allegedly did not conduct reasonable due diligence prior to sending this October 30,2008 letter. The letter caused investors to delay their attempts to contact government authorities regarding Morris, Haley, Linford and Nguyen and their investment activities.

Carnage

By the time the Ponzi scheme unraveled, Morris, Haley, Linford and Nguyen, and their respective entities, had allegedly defrauded at least 90 investors out of at least $60 million by offering and selling unregistered and non-exempt promissory notes based on material misrepresentations and omissions.Many of the investors who lost money in the Fund were inexperienced, unsophisticated and had minimal net worth and annual income. Many investors lost their entire savings. Some investors went so far as to borrow the money they invested and are now indebted beyond their ability to repay their lenders.In truth, the Complaint alleges that Morris did not work with private traders to obtain lines of credit that were invested. As has become the norm with these Ponzi schemes, Morris is accused of using investor funds to make bogus interest payments to earlier investors from capital raised from later investors. Moreover, rather than investing the funds in debt and equity vehicles, real estate, commodities and leasing it to private traders, Morris used investor money to support a lavish lifestyle, including a luxurious home and several sports cars, and to make illusory interest payments to early investors in his scheme.Out of the approximate $20 million Haley raised, the Complaint alleges that he used at least $700,000 for personal expenses, including payments on a new home and $25,000 per month rental payments while building this new home.The Complaint charges Morris, Haley, Lindford, Nguyen, E&R Holdings, Wise Financial, Momentum, Cornerstone, Vantage Point and Freedom Group with violations of Sections 5(a), 5(c) and 17(a) of the Securities Act of 1933 and Section 10(b) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (Exchange Act) and Rule 10b-5 thereunder. The complaint also charges Morris, Haley and Nguyen with violates of Section 15(a) of the Exchange Act. The SEC seeks an injunction, disgorgement and civil penalties.’

Sentiment Signaling a Call for Caution - Prieur du Plessis ‘The results of the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey are shown in the graphs below. The Survey measures the percentage of individual investors who are bullish, bearish or neutral on stock market for the next six months. As the masses are usually on the wrong side of market movements, particularly at tops and bottoms, sentiment indicators fulfil a useful function as contrarian indicators. The bullish sentiment (55.9%) and bearish sentiment (18.3%) readings are at fairly extreme levels, as also seen from the bull-bear spread being quite a bit higher than the market peak of October 2007. Sentiment indicators are fairly blunt instruments from a timing point of view and can stay at high / low levels for extended periods. However, when companies are overvalued and technical indicators overbought, overbullish sentiment indicators complete a threesome of tools arguing quite strongly for a cautious approach to stock market investment.

Click to enlarge:

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Source: AAII Investor Sentiment Survey; Plexus Asset Management.’

Food Stamp Usage Hits New High Of 43.2 Million Ever wonder where all the money for equity inflows came from? Here’s the answer: with all the money saved from participating in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, better known as foodstamps.

China Buys Up EU Government Debt China has been increasing its holdings of European government debt, including that issued by Spain, amid the euro-zone crisis, Chinese Vice Commerce Minister Gao Hucheng was quoted as saying.

Ron Paul Wants You! (To Take On The Fed) Zero Hedge | For all those with a penchant for crunching manipulated numbers and wish to make a change by taking on the Fed, this may be your chance.

New York owes $200 billion in retiree health care costs – but there’s no money David Gutierrez | New York State, along with its cities and counties, have promised $200 billion worth of retirement health care benefits to their employees, and no one knows where that money is going to come from.

Ron Paul: Congress Criminally Devaluing Americans’ Savings It is nothing short of cruel and criminal for Congress to stand idly by while the life savings of Americans are inflated away to nothing. It is high time Congress insist on getting complete information on what the Fed has been doing, and for whom.

The Silver Bears Are Back For Round Three, Explaining Two Key Recent Developments In The World Of Silver Confused by the recent downdraft in the price of (paper) silver… Even more confused by what is happening with the record open interest in the metal? Have no fear. The bears are here, and explain things in their traditionally simple and sound effect-filled way.

For Millions Of Senior Citizens The Only Future They Have To Look Forward To Is One Filled With Debt And Poverty In America today, millions upon millions of senior citizens are very deep in debt. In fact, more elderly Americans than ever before are going bankrupt.

Labor Force Participation Rate Drops To Fresh 25 Year Low, Adjusted Unemployment Rate At 11.7% Zero Hedge | While today’s unemployment number came at a low 9.4%, well below expectations, the one and only reason for this is that the labor force in America has plunged to a fresh 25 year low.

Why your local Hospital could soon shut down

Economic crisis archive

Presto! 9.4% Unemployment! How The Government Lies. Hooray…Happy days are here again! That is exactly what the elite would have us believe with the 9.4% unemployment number in this huge CONfidence game otherwise known as the USEconomy.

Fed Turns Over Record $78.4 Billion Profit to Treasury [ Totally manipulated paper with costs far exceeding those paper entries, and even greater costs prospectively even beyond the decline of the ever more worthless paper currency. ] Reuters | The Federal Reserve reported Monday its earnings jumped by more than 50 percent in 2010

Judge orders Fed to deliver gold records for her review GATA | GATA’s motion to order the Fed to produce in complete form for the judge’s private review 20 gold-related documents the Fed has sought to keep secret.

Deepening crisis traps America’s have-nots The Telegraph UK | The US is drifting from a financial crisis to a deeper and more insidious social crisis. Self-congratulation by the US authorities that they have this time avoided a repeat of the 1930s is premature.


Consumer confidence down,
LiveLeak.com - Loonie closes above U.S. dollar dollar for first time closes below parity on Canadian loonie … hey, hey, hey … 'Huge' stock decline — but not yet MarketWatch - Brimelow ‘Commentary: Adens … ‘mega trend’ looks grim … The Adens expect a hyperinflationary collapse … ‘ Oh come on! Manipulated dollar decline with inflated earnings, stock prices thereby, etc., … we’ve seen this all before … the last few crashes … Jobless rate jumps to 9.8% as hiring slows (Washington Post) [ The reality is not a mystery! The nation’s been thrown under the bus for the greater good (wealth) of the very few (frauds on wall street, etc.); wall street giving out record bonuses from their accomplished fraud (with no-recession b.s. bernanke help) of $144 BILLION: Come on! This is gettin’ even more downright ridiculous (if that’s even possible)! Pending home foreclosure / distress sales up, oil prices (and oil stocks) up, debased dollar down, plus a little familiar ‘better than expected’ thrown in along with prospects of a ‘no-recession bernanke’ market-frothing bull session on 60 minutes and, voila, suckers’ rally into the close to keep the suckers suckered! What’s good for the frauds on wall street is bad for just about everyone else which includes the vast majority of people and businesses, domestically and globally, as current dollar manipulation / debasement ultimately results in higher costs and loss of purchasing power (ie., oil, etc.). Clearly, this is one of those fraudulent wealth transfers to the frauds on wall street et als which will ultimately be paid for by those who least are in a position to afford it, courtesy of the ever more worthless Weimar dollar, etc., inflating earnings, eps, lowering p/e multiples, etc., see infra. This is an especially great time to sell / take profits while you can since there's much worse to come! Previous: Rosy numbers on consumer sentiment, unemployment (far better than private forecasts) from the government prior to the holiday so-called ‘shop till you drop’? How can anyone believe anything they say? Najerian interviewed by Motek chimes in with the reason for good retail cheer; viz., people have stopped paying their mortgages and are using the funds to purchase retail goods; while Davidowitz adds that with record numbers of americans on food stamps, real unemployment at 17+, and wall street giving out record bonuses from their accomplished fraud (with no-recession b.s. bernanke help) of $144 BILLION … the high end stores / jewelers will do well … daaaaah! And, with insiders and wall street frauds selling into the bubble as preceded last crash, this is an especially great opportunity to sell / take profits! Suckers’ rally on light volume, full moon, and government complicity (false data / reports) to keep suckers suckered (easy for the wall street frauds to do with just a mouse click / push of the button – and, they know all those technical trade lines that are easy to program in this current phase of the scam/fraud with the debased dollar). Keep in mind, the totally mindless blather from the ‘cottage industries’ of and fraudulent wall street itself in talking up lower P/E multiples when the same is a direct result of the debasement of the dollar and the consequent manipulation / translation (not real, see Davis, infra) which preceded the financial crisis / last crash. Unemployment, trade, deficit, etc., numbers continue decidedly worse than expected along with other negative data (and in the ‘wrong direction’, that spin accorded ‘down but not as bad as before’ b*** s*** ) yet the market has rallied like no tomorrow with used home foreclosure / distressed sales, though abated owing to ‘foreclosuregate’, the other ‘heralded’ good news. Moreover, the dumbo lemmings of Europe have jumped on the fraudulent defacto bankrupt american crazy train propelled to the precipice also as if no tomorrow. This is about keeping the suckers sucked in with the help of a market-frothing pre-election debased dollar for favorable currency translation and paper (but not real when measured in, ie., gold, etc.) profits which preceded the last crisis, inflating a bubble as in the last crisis to facilitate the churn-and-earn, particularly with computerized (and high frequency) trades and which commissions they’ll get again on the way down. There is nothing to support these overbought stock prices, fundamentally or otherwise. These are desperate criminals ‘at work’. Even wall street shill, the senile Buffett is saying we’re still in a recession (depression) [ Davis: ‘… all profits are inflated by 10% (from falling, debased dollar) and that 10% is the E that gets divided from the P and gives us a much better price/multiple to hang our hats on and that gets investors to BUYBUYBUY …’ The bull market that never was / were beyond wall street b.s. when measured in gold ] This is a great opportunity to sell / take profits (these lower dollar, hyperinflationary currency manipulations / translations to froth paper stocks will end quite badly as in last crash)! This is a global depression. This is a secular bear market in a global depression. The past up moves were manipulated bull (s***) cycles (at best) in a secular bear market. This has been a typically manipulated bubble as has preceded the prior crashes with great regularity that the wall street frauds and insiders commission and sell into. This is a typical wall street ‘programmed computerized high-frequency churn and earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud as in prior crashes ( widely reported, high-frequency trading routinely accounts for more than 50% of daily U.S. equity trading volume and regularly approaches 70%. )’. This national decline, economic and otherwise, will not end until justice is served and the wall street frauds et als are criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed.The Stock Market's Long Decline Has Begun Smith ]

(1-10-11) Dow 11,624 -37 Nasdaq 2,707 +4 S&P 500 1,269 -2 [CLOSE- OIL $89.26 (-54% for year 2008) (RECORD TRADING HIGH $147.27) GAS $3.00 (reg. gas in LAND OF FRUITS AND NUTS $3.20 REG./ $3.29 MID-GRADE/ $3.39 PREM./ $3.79 DIESEL) / GOLD $1,374 (+24% for year 2009) / SILVER $28.86 (+47% for year 2009) PLATINUM $1,739 (+56% for year 2009) / DOLLAR= .77 EURO, 83 YEN, .64 POUND STERLING, ETC. (How low can you go - LOWER)/ http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/update 10 YR NOTE YIELD 3.30% …..… AP Business Highlights ...Yahoo Market Update... T. Rowe Price Weekly Recap – Stocks / Bonds / Currencies - Domestic / International This Is a Secular Bear Market and The End of Buy and Hold … and Hope MARKET MANIPULATION AND HOW THE LATEST BUBBLE-FRAUD PRE-COMING CRASH IS BEING ACCOMPLISHED 3-11-10 6 Theories On Why the Stock Market Has Rallied 3-9-10 [archived website file] Risks Lurk for ETF Investors The bull market that never was/were beyond wall street b.s. when measured in gold Property Values Projected to Fall 12% in 2010 Jan 31, 2010 The Week Ahead: Risk Is Off the Cliff; Unwind Has Begun Jan 31, 2010 01-13-10 Forecast for 2010 from Seeking Alpha Contributor THE COMING MARKET CRASH / CORRECTION 1-28-10 Maierhofer (01-15-10) 11 Clear Signs Economy Sinking Economic Black Hole 1-22-10: 20 Reasons Why The U.S. Economy Is Dying And Is Simply Not Going To Recover Current Economic / Fiscal Charts Trendsresearch.com forecast for 2009 1-7-10 Crash is coming! ‘WORST ECONOMIC COLLAPSE EVER’ Must Read Economic / Financial Data This Depression is just beginning The coming depression… thecomingdepression.net MUST READ: JEREMY GRANTHAM’S QUARTERLY UPDATE 25 January 2010 (850 on the S&P) by TPC The Next Wave of Collapse is Coming Sooner than you think Sliding Back Into the Great Depression ABSOLUTELY, ABSURDLY, RIDICULOUS! SELL / TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME!

National / World

Early Cancer Screening Could Cause Millions of Deaths Liberty Doctor | Early detection of cancer at the cellular level will have us aggressively looking for the location of early cancers via full body scanning.

DHS Links Loughner to White Supremacists Kurt Nimmo | Fox News reports that according to Homeland Security Loughner may be connected to American Renaissance.

Second Man Sought In Giffords Shooting May Be Assassin’s Handler Kurt Nimmo | The official story that will become gospel for the corporate media is in the process of formulation.

Jared Loughner Described by Classmate as “Left-Wing Pothead” Pheonix New Times | ​A classmate of the man accused of shooting Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords this morning describes him as “left wing” and a “pot head” in a series of posts on Twitter this afternoon.

“Toning Down The Rhetoric” Means Obeying Big Government Despite the fact that Jared Lee Loughner was a psychotic loner with “left-wing” beliefs according to those who knew him, the establishment has hastily exploited yesterday’s tragic shooting in Tucson to demonize conservatives, libertarians and gun owners while ordering Americans to “tone down the rhetoric,” which is nothing more than a euphemism for stifling dissent and coercing people to roll over on Obamacare, bailouts and whatever big government is preparing to unleash next.

Establishment Media Demonizes Tea Party and Constitutionalists After Giffords Shooting Get ready for the shooting of Rep. Gabrielle Giffords to be used in a serious way against the Tea Party movement. MSNBC, CNN and the rest of the Mockingbird media are now attempting to portray millions of Americans as violence prone anti-government radicals.

Second Man Sought In Giffords Shooting May Be Assassin’s Handler The FBI and local law enforcement in Pima County, Arizona, are looking for a second man wanted in connection with the shooting of Rep. Giffords and the murder of a federal judge and five others.

UPDATED: Arizona Assassin Obsessed With Mind Control Jared Loughner, the gunman who shot Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords and numerous other victims including a Federal Judge and a nine-year-old girl during a political event in Tuscon today, was a US military recruit who was obsessed with mind control, mirroring the circumstances of many other mass shooters in history.

Celente: Global Youth Rebellion Simmering RT | 2011 will see uprising against the white shoe boys around the world.

Internet Identity System Said Readied by Obama Administration The Obama administration plans to announce today plans for an Internet identity system that will limit fraud and streamline online transactions, leading to a surge in Web commerce, officials said.

US wants Twitter details of Wikileaks activists The US government has subpoenaed the social networking site Twitter for personal details of people connected to Wikileaks, court documents show.

Climate Scientists Deepening Skepticism of Democracy Does a liberal democracy have sufficient resolve to stomach the economic and political sacrifices required to stabilize global warming?

Justice Department Subpoenas Birgitta Jónsdóttir’s Twitter Account in WikiLeaks Case Peter Kemp | Inherent in that subpoena is a belief by the DOJ that some sort of incriminating evidence exists to use against Julian Assange.


Royal Family granted new right of secrecy London Independent | The Royal Family is to be granted absolute protection from public scrutiny in a controversial legal reform.

UK Library: Cryptome Blocked for “Criminal Activity” Cryptome | Official secrecy is the very greatest threat to democracy.

Illinois faces steep tax increases to meet fiscal crisis (Washington Post) [ This is only the beginning of this continued ultimately hyperinflationary depression with much worse to come. How the recession imploded states' finances (Washington Post) [ This is truly no joke! Municipal Debt Threatens U.S. Economy Lim ‘The debt crisis that has taken down banks, and even countries, threatens more than 100 American municipalities this year. According to Meredith Whitney, who works as a US research analyst, local and state debts are the biggest concerns to the US economy today. It is large enough to derail economic recovery.

She said that,

There’s not a doubt on my mind that you will see a spate of municipal bond defaults. You can see fifty to a hundred sizable defaults – more. This will amount to hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of defaults.

American states and cities have a total debt load of around $2 trillion.

New Jersey government Chris Christie summarized it clearly,

We spent too much on everything. We spent money we didn’t have. We borrowed money just crazily. The credit card’s maxed out, and it’s over. We now have to get to the business of climbing out of the hole. We’ve been digging it for a decade or more. We’ve got to climb now, and a climb is harder…’ Video: State pensions face 'death spiral' Wash.Post (It’s not just state and local … it’s national, ie., social security, medicare, Medicaid, veterans, etc., and as well, some companies. ) Sept. 15 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. state pensions such as Illinois, Kansas and New Jersey are in a "death spiral," with assets at many insufficient to cover benefits, payouts consuming a growing portion of resources and costs rising twice as fast as investment gains. Bloomberg's Monica Bertran reports. (Source: Bloomberg) (Bloomberg) ] While experts call Illinois's plight the worst in the nation, many states are grappling with the perils of air-brushing structural budget problems rather than implementing difficult tax increases or service cuts.

White House to extend more support (to overcome widespread suspicion and anti-americanism) to Pakistan (Washington Post) [ Well, there you have it. Another victory notched up for defacto bankrupt, war criminal nation america. Sounds like a plan … you know, that winning hearts and minds thing … destroy the country, kill their people, have contractors siphon off the cash (with kickbacks of course). Victory americana … Riiiiight! ] Offer aimed at overcoming widespread suspicion and anti-Americanism in nation, which is seen as a vexing but crucial partner in anti-terror efforts

Data point to economy crawling out of downturn (Washington Post) [ I don’t believe anything the u.s. government et als says or reports. What Today's Job Numbers Aren't Telling You , On Friday January 7, 2011, 6:10 pm EST

‘Another month goes by and another unemployment report deciphered. Is there more to this month's report than the 9.4% headline number? Unless you are content with the information spoon fed by the financial media, you'll find the data points revealed in this article rather interesting.The only other Wall Street ritual that tops monthly unemployment reports is earnings season. Like any other ritual, it comes with many myths and fables attached. The most common one is that unemployment directly affects stock prices.

Myth Busted

If you base your investment decisions on today's release, you may want to revisit the market's performance following last month's release (published on December 3, 2010).The U-3 unemployment rate spiked from 9.6% to 9.8%. This was a huge disappointment, yet major stock indexes a la S&P (SNP: ^GSPC), Dow (DJI: ^DJI) and Nasdaq (Nasdaq: ^IXIC) rallied. What caused this unexpected reaction? The answer can be found in technical analysis.The technical setup going into last month's unemployment release (published on December 3) was predominantly bullish. With the S&P (NYSEArca: IVV - News) at 1,225 in early November, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter highlighted important support at 1,165 - 1,170 and on November 7 stated: 'Any correction that doesn't drop below 1,165 will likely result in new highs' with resistance at 1,267 (revised to 1,281 on December 12).As the chart below illustrates, the S&P tested support on five occasions and set the stage for future gains. That's why despite the dismal jobless numbers, stocks spiked on the day of the release and continued higher. [chart] Before we talk about the technical set up going into today's release, let's examine some unknown but important details about today's unemployment report.

What the Headlines Won't Tell You

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS.org) publishes more data than just the heavily quoted U-3 unemployment headline number (currently 9.4%).In fact, if you do some surfing on BLS.org you will find that the headline number is deceptive at best and inaccurate at least. Below are some statistics that put America's job market in perspective.According to the BLS, the real unemployment rate (U-6), which includes workers who stopped looking for jobs or had to settle for part-time jobs - is at 16.7%.

One of the most remarkable BLS data points on the BLS site is the average number of weeks workers are now unemployed. The jobless are unemployed for an average of 34.2 weeks. As the chart below shows, this is the second highest reading in the survey's 63-year history (all-time high was 34.8 in July 2010). [chart]

Along the same lines, the number of workers unemployed for more than 27 weeks (usually unemployment benefits cease after 26 weeks) is near its May 2010 all-time high. [chart]

A Painful Misconception

The Bush tax-cut extension led many to believe that unemployment benefits have been extended beyond the 99 weeks (26 weeks state-funded plus 73 weeks federal benefits) available to the 25 worst hit states. This is not correct.According to CNBC, no benefits will be paid once the 99-week period is exhausted. As per the extension, however, the jobless will continue to receive up to 99 weeks of unemployment checks.Over the past three years, the unemployed have collected about $320 billion in jobless benefits. About two million '99ers' received their last benefit check around Christmas.

A Shrinking Workforce

It is estimated that about 150,000 'youngsters' enter the work force every year. That's why the work force has steadily increased since 1948. Courtesy of the 2008 bear market, the workforce has actually been shrinking as discouraged workers drop out of the statistics .Discouraged workers are those who stopped searching in the last four weeks. Excluding them from the workforce and the unemployment equation artificially lowers the U-3 unemployment rate. Discouraged workers surged to a new record high of 1.32 million which depressed the labor force participation rate to 64.3% (a 27-year low). If the participation rate had stayed the same, the U-3 unemployment rate would be 9.7%.

Making Sense of What Doesn't Make Sense

Based on U-6 numbers, since December 2006 as many 13 million Americans have either lost their jobs, or have been downgraded. Meanwhile food stamp recipients have mushroomed by ten 10 million.Nevertheless, stocks have shrugged off an avalanche of bad news and continue plowing ahead towards new highs. Does that make sense?It does when you include the Federal Reserve and it's quantitative easing program in this lopsided equation. The Fed has a history of creating and ignoring bubbles. The 2000 tech (NYSEArca: XLK - News) bubble came and went and was followed by the 2005 real estate (NYSEArca: IYR - News) bubble.The 2005 real estate bubble was somewhat cushioned by the 2007 financial (NYSEArca: XLF - News) bubble. The 2007 bubble bust expressed itself fully until the Fed started inflating yet another bubble - the QE1 and QE2-based 'great' new bull market.

The Technical Set Up

Looking at the long-term picture, there is reason to be skeptical about the growth potential for U.S. stocks (NYSEArca: IWM - News). But if you want instant gratification - as most investors do - what's the technical set up for the coming weeks?Looking at the market's internal indicators, we note that momentum is strong but breadth is weakening. Sentiment - one of the most reliable indicators in the investment universe - is extremely bullish, which is bearish for stocks.Prior instances when the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter noted overheated excitement for stocks was in January 2009, January 2010, and April 2010. Another bearish factor is the new January effect that's seen stocks decline each January over the past three years.Additionally, the S&P is about to reach the measured upside target of a W pattern (December 12 ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter) and a host of other resistance levels.In summary, momentum and Fed induced liquidity point up, but sentiment gauges and some technical indicators convey a deeply bearish message.The best way to navigate such cross currents is to let the market speak and carefully analyze its reaction to important support and resistance levels. Failure to break resistance levels combined with an inability to remain above support have been recipes for disaster in the past, especially with bullish sentiment at extreme levels.A chain is only as strong as its weakest link. The ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter monitors the market's internal strength to identify weak links before they break.’

Health-care repeal vote looms (Washington Post) [ Starting with real / unspun data / facts is the wisest course, and such should be conveyed to the taxpayers who ultimately pay, including the bloated salaries of the corrupt, incompetent ‘washingtonians, federal employees, bushies, obamanoids, etc., CBO Says Repeal Would Reduce Spending by $540 Billion...The Congressional Budget Office, in an email to Capitol Hill staffers obtained by the Spectator, has said that repealing the national health care law would reduce net spending by $540 billion in the ten year period from 2012 through 2021. That number represents the cost of the new provisions, minus Medicare cuts. Repealing the bill would also eliminate $770 billion in taxes. It's the tax hikes in the health care law (along with the Medicare cuts) which accounts for the $230 billion in deficit reduction…’ ] Right to undo? Panel | How much should Republican House leaders focus on undoing past initiatives versus creating their own new ones? | Weigh in

Twain needs no fixin' (Washington Post) [ I quite agree with Ms. Parker, particularly in this digital age which facilitates such censorship which can be accomplished with such ease and an environment as in the self-created paranoid u.s. replete with pervasive corruption, incompetence, and criminality where perpetrators / criminals therein cry out for more cover-up / censorship all in the self-destructive name of ‘war on terror’, jingoistic patriotism, etc.. I’m against almost all censorship (subject to very limited exceptions, ie., ‘yelling fire in a crowded theater, kiddy porn, etc., except that the u.s. courts are so corrupt and venal that they can no longer be trusted to responsibly apply those limited exceptions to narrowly defined exceptional circumstances. See, for example, RICO case http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm ) . DRUDGEREPORT: NYT SATURDAY: NUMBER OF COMBAT INJURIES IN AFGHANISTAN APPROACHES IRAQ-WAR LEVELS... DEVELOPING...
'WE'RE DIGGING OUT OF A HOLE' [ Example of sentiment: some comments - ‘…Barack Obama is a cooked goose. He is absolutely the most incompetent president of the U.S. ever, so he continues to spin the numbers in such a manner that might make him look good. News for him: NOTHING will make you look good. Pretty is skin deep, incompetence goes clear to the bone. "Let his days be few; and let another take his office." Psalms 109:8- RightStuff, Texas, USA, 7/1/2011 19:45

You know what happens when you keep digging a hole - you reach China and that is what is going to finish the americans and Obamarama...- Olrik, Canada, 7/1/2011 19:41

'We're digging ourselves out of a hole' - Barack Hussein Obama To get out of a hole you've dug so deep, is to STOP DIGGING, fill it up with soil so you can climb OUT OF THE HOLE. STOP SPENDING OBAMA! STOP PRINTING MONEY! The US dollar is weakening against YUAN of China. Republicans better start cutting all spending, defund/repeal Obamacare, America is flat BROKE! If Republicans can't rein all spending created by Pelosi and her peons, their DEBT would be BIGGER than their economy.- Observer, over here, over there, 7/1/2011 19:33

Well the ammo index is still down, I guess having 3,000 rounds is enough- NVBob, Richland WA USA, 7/1/2011 19:31

Fill in the hole, with Obama in it, at the bottom!- Stan, St Louis, Missouri, USA, 7/1/2011 19:30

As one would expect of a socialist, clueless to the mechanics of a capitalist system, he seeks to extricate himself from a hole by further digging.- jnsesq, minimaxi, 7/1/2011 19:29 Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1345047/Glimmer-hope-U-S-economy-jobless-rate-falls-lowest-level-19-months.html#ixzz1APmJZga7 ]

Jobs report an 'utter mess'... ‘…However, some economists were less optimistic. 'It's a bit of a mixed bag,' said Ryan Sweet, an economist at Moody's Analytics. Many analysts hoped to see larger job gains, and the drop in the unemployment rate is unlikely to be sustained, he said. 'The labour market ended last year with a bit of a thud,' he said…’
China plans $1.3 billion 'seven-star hotel'...
China Backs Europe, Euro for Investing Reserves...
REPORT: Too much fluoride in US water...
] Parker: Why 'The Adventures of Huckleberry Finn' should not be censored.


January 7, 2011: Market Summary

December Jobs Miss Expectations

Unemployment Down To 9.4%, But Jobs Report Disappoints

Is a Correction Inevitable? [Short answer: YES! ] Vistesen ‘The signs are clear: risk is overloved, overbought and overextended but does this necessarily spell the inevitable correction? [Short answer: YES! ] (click for larger image) [chart] Since Augsut 2010 the SPY has barely touched its 50 day moving average. Indeed, it has stayed well clear of it. Those, like yours truly, who entered 2011 fancying some bloodletting have so far been disappointed. Plan B Economics points to the obvious that oftentimes in the world of investing, a choir chiming for an event to unfold is the best bet that it will not occur.

I’ve had a pretty good sense in the past knowing when the “correction” trade is overcrowded. I gotta say that I definitely sense that now. Bulls are on guard for a correction and bears are calling for one too. In fact, I’ve never seen such a unanimous call for a correction as I do now in a long time. Near the low of the day I saw a headline from bigcharts.com that said some portfolio manager claimed the January correction has started. The market didn’t even go in the red for the year yet and this guy’s already saying the correction has started? Talk about being over-eager. I believe this group think call for a correction means that a correction either won’t happen or will be quite shallow, well below expectations.

As a good friend of mine noted that this is like second-guessing the second-guesser. Market timing is best performed when frontrunning the crowd, not standing in the middle shouting like everyone else. On the technical side, I would like to see two (or three) straight days of declines in the SPY before calling it.The more interesting point is how deep (or shallow) it will be. A move to the 50 day MA marker would be something like 4.15% and come at around 1221 at current levels. Sounds about right to me.’ [ Vistesen’s clearly an unbridled optimist! ]

Drowning in Debt NyaradiEverywhere I looked yesterday, the world seemed to be drowning in debt.

In Portugal, bond spreads continue to widen as they prepare for a sale on January 12th while next door in Spain, their “D-Day” (debt day) sale comes on January 13th. France steps up on January 10th with more than $10 billion coming to market with Italy following on January 11.

The euro fell to the lowest level against the U.S. Dollar in three months in anticipation of next week’s auctions while the U.S. Dollar Index rose +0.68%.

Closer to home, Illinois struggles wtih a nearly $15 Billion hole that needs to be filled and so is pushing for a tax hike to do the job while in California, recycled Governor Jerry Brown promises to unveil a budget next week that will be “painful.”

Meanwhile, December retail sales originally ballyhooed as being the best in years turned in a lackluster performance and the pesky problem of persistent unemployment resurfaced yesterday with Initial Claims rising unexpectedly to 409,000 from 391,000 prior while Continuing Claims managed to fall.

Today comes the big report and whisper numbers are huge improvements over recent numbers.

Technically there’s no breadth and no momentum to market action and we remain in very overbought territory on nearly all indicators.

Daily Moves for Major ETFs:

Dow Jones Industrials: (NYSEArca: DIA) -0.22%

Russell 2000: (NYSEArca: IWM) -0.47%

NASDAQ 100: (NasdaqGM: QQQQ) +0.32%

S&P 500 Index: (NYSEArca: SPY) -0.20%

MSCI Emerging Markets:(NYSEArca: EEM) -1.07%%

MSCI China (NYSEArca: FXI) -0.79%%

Gold (NYSEArca: GLD) -0.40%

7-10 Year Treasuries: (NYSEArca: IEF) +0.52%

20+ Year Treasuries: (NYSEArca: TLT) +0.44%

VIX +2.23%

U.S. Dollar (NYSE:Arca: UUP) +0.77%

The major indexes remain overvalued and overbought on a technical and fundamental basis and so Wall Street Sector Selector remains in “Yellow Flag” status, expecting choppy to lower prices ahead.’



Thursday's Economic Data Roundup: Mixed News Roche ‘U.S. retailers posted weaker than expected sales in December, the Monster job index declined from last month’s highs and unemployment claims continued their steady trend lower. All in all it was a very mixed day of data.

  • U.S. retailers posted weaker than expected chain store sales. Although weak, most retailers were still able to post year over year gains. But an alarming trend is showing up in the commentary – retailers are beginning to see margin compression due to rising input costs. Mark Montagna, a retail analyst at Avondale Partners says the entire supply chain cost is on the rise and cost conscious consumers are very sensitive to higher prices. The Wall Street Journal has a good round-up of the individual retailer results here.
  • The Monster Employment Index (click to enlarge) showed a stagnant employment environment. Though year over year growth remains strong the sequential data is showing little to no sign of recovery. The index slowed to 130 in December from 134.[chart]
  • Unemployment claims ticked higher from last week’s huge drop, but remain on a steady trend lower. This likely points to growth, but slow growth in the labor market. Econoday has the details on the claims data:

“Jobless claims haven’t been too bumpy this holiday period, moving convincingly lower. Claims did rise to 409,000 in the January 1 week yet follow the prior week’s 391,000 for the second best reading of the recovery (prior week revised from 388,000). The four-week average is telling the story, down 3,500 in the week for a 410,750 level that is down nearly 20,000from a month ago…’

Jobs growth disappoints, but jobless rate falls (Reuters)

Labor Force Participation Rate Drops To Fresh 25 Year Low, Adjusted Unemployment Rate At 11.7% Zero Hedge | While today’s unemployment number came at a low 9.4%, well below expectations, the one and only reason for this is that the labor force in America has plunged to a fresh 25 year low.

Europe unveils sweeping plans to govern reckless banks London Telegraph | Brussels has called for sweeping powers for regulators to seize failing EU banks, sack board members, and impose haircuts on senior bank debt.

Doug Casey: Prepare for Social Upheaval LewRockwell.com | The big question is not, “Can it happen here?” but, “Will it?” Or maybe, simply, “When?”

China Buys Up EU Government Debt China has been increasing its holdings of European government debt, including that issued by Spain, amid the euro-zone crisis, Chinese Vice Commerce Minister Gao Hucheng was quoted as saying.

Labor Force Participation Rate Drops To Fresh 25 Year Low, Adjusted Unemployment Rate At 11.7% While today’s unemployment number came at a low 9.4%, well below expectations, the one and only reason for this is that the labor force in America has plunged to a fresh 25 year low.

Not Just “Inflation Versus Deflation” … We’ve Got “MixedFlation” and “ExportFlation” Many people have made persuasive arguments for inflation.

The Contrived Drama of the Debt Ceiling Let the contrived drama of the debt ceiling begin for the American people.

Gallup Finds Unemployment Increased In December, Underemployment Is At 6 Month High, Blasts Government Data Fudging Following this week’s ebullient ADP private payrolls report, the sellside has succumbed to an orgiastic frenzy suggesting that tomorrow NFP number may be as high as 580,000 (as reported earlier).

Tipping Point: 25 Signs That The Coming Financial Collapse Is Now Closer Then Ever The financial collapse that so many of us have been anticipating is seemingly closer then ever. Over the past several weeks, there have been a host of ominous signs for the U.S. economy.

The Economic Collapse
Dec 17, 2010

The financial collapse that so many of us have been anticipating is seemingly closer then ever. Over the past several weeks, there have been a host of ominous signs for the U.S. economy. Yields on U.S. Treasuries have moved up rapidly and Moody’s is publicly warning that it may have to cut the rating on U.S. government debt soon. Mortgage rates are also moving up aggressively. The euro and the U.S. dollar both look incredibly shaky. Jobs continue to be shipped out of the United States at a blistering pace as our politicians stand by and do nothing. Confidence in U.S. government debt around the globe continues to decline. State and local governments that are drowning in debt across the United States are savagely cutting back on even essential social services and are coming up with increasingly “creative” ways of getting more money out of all of us. Meanwhile, tremor after tremor continues to strike the world financial system. So does this mean that we have almost reached a tipping point? Is the world on the verge of a major financial collapse?

Let’s hope not, but with each passing week the financial news just seems to get eve worse. Not only is U.S. government debt spinning wildly toward a breaking point, but many U.S. states (such as California) are in such horrific financial condition that they are beginning to resemble banana republics.

But it is not just the United States that is in trouble. Nightmarish debt problems in Greece, Spain, Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Belgium and several other European nations threaten to crash the euro at any time. In fact, many economists are now openly debating which will collapse first – the euro or the U.S. dollar.

Sadly, this is the inevitable result of constructing a global financial system on debt. All debt bubbles eventually collapse. Currently we are living in the biggest debt bubble in the history of the world, and when this one bursts it is going to be a disaster of truly historic proportions.

So will we reach a tipping point soon? Well, the following are 25 signs that the financial collapse is rapidly getting closer….

#1 The official U.S. unemployment rate has not been beneath 9 percent since April 2009.

#2 According to the U.S. Census Bureau, there are currently 6.3 million vacant homes in the United States that are either for sale or for rent.

#3 It is being projected that the U.S. trade deficit with China could hit 270 billion dollars for the entire year of 2010.

#4 Back in 2000, 7.2 percent of blue collar workers were either unemployed or underemployed. Today that figure is up to 19.5 percent.

#5 The Chinese government has accumulated approximately $2.65 trillion in total foreign exchange reserves. They have drained this wealth from the economies of other nations (such as the United States) and instead of reinvesting all of it they are just sitting on much of it. This is creating tremendous imbalances in the global economy.

#6 Since the year 2000, we have lost 10% of our middle class jobs. In the year 2000 there were approximately 72 million middle class jobs in the United States but today there are only about 65 million middle class jobs.

#7 The United States now employs about the same number of people in manufacturing as it did back in 1940. Considering the fact that we had 132 million people living in this country in 1940 and that we have well over 300 million people living in this country today, that is a very sobering statistic.

#8 According to CoreLogic, U.S. housing prices have now declined for three months in a row.

#9 The average rate on a 30 year fixed rate mortgage soared 11 basis points just this past week. As mortgage rates continue to push higher it is going to make it even more difficult for American families to afford homes.

#10 22.5 percent of all residential mortgages in the United States were in negative equity as of the end of the third quarter of 2010.

#11 The U.S. monetary base has more than doubled since the beginning of the most recent recession.

#12 U.S. Treasury yields have been rising steadily during the 4th quarter of 2010 and recently hit a six-month high.

#13 Incoming governor Jerry Brown is scrambling to find $29 billion more to cut from the California state budget. The following quote from Brown about the desperate condition of California state finances is not going to do much to inspire confidence in California’s financial situation around the globe….

“We’ve been living in fantasy land. It is much worse than I thought. I’m shocked.”

#14 24.3 percent of the residents of El Centro, California are currently unemployed.

#15 The average home in Merced, California has declined in value by 63 percent over the past four years.

#16 Detroit Mayor Dave Bing has come up with a new way to save money. He wants to cut 20 percent of Detroit off from essential social services such as road repairs, police patrols, functioning street lights and garbage collection.

#17 The second most dangerous city in the United States – Camden, New Jersey – is about to lay off about half its police in a desperate attempt to save money.

#18 In 2010, 55 percent of Americans between the ages of 60 and 64 were in the labor market. Ten years ago, that number was just 47 percent. More older Americans than ever find that they have to keep working just to survive.

#19 Back in 1998, the United States had 25 percent of the world’s high-tech export market and China had just 10 percent. Ten years later, the United States had less than 15 percent and China’s share had soared to 20 percent.

#20 The U.S. government budget deficit increased to a whopping $150.4 billion last month, which represented the biggest November budget deficit on record.

#21 The U.S. government is somehow going to have to roll over existing debt and finance new debt that is equivalent to 27.8 percent of GDP in 2011.

#22 The United States had been the leading consumer of energy on the globe for about 100 years, but this past summer China took over the number one spot.

#23 According to an absolutely stunning new poll, 40 percent of all U.S. doctors plan to bail out of the profession over the next three years.

#24 As 2007 began, there were just over 1 million Americans that had been unemployed for half a year or longer. Today, there are over 6 million Americans that have been unemployed for half a year or longer.

#25 All over the United States, local governments have begun instituting “police response fees”. For example, New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg has come up with a plan under which a fee of $365 would be charged if police are called to respond to an automobile accident where no injuries are involved. If there are injuries as a result of the crash that is going to cost extra.

16 Nightmarish Economic Trends To Watch Carefully In 2011 The American Dream Dec 15, 2010 ‘If you only watch the “economic pundits” on television, it can be very confusing to figure out exactly what is happening with the U.S. economy. One pundit will pull out a couple statistics that got a little bit better over the past month and claim that we have entered a time of solid recovery. Another pundit will pull out a couple statistics that got a little worse over the past month and claim that we are headed for trouble. So what is the truth? Well, if you really want to get a clear idea of what is really going on you have to look at the long-term trends. There are some economic trends which just keep getting worse year after year after year, and it is those trends that tell the real story of the decline of our economic system.

As you examine the long-term trends, you quickly come to realize that the U.S. is trapped in an endless spiral of debt, the middle class is being wiped out, the U.S. dollar is being destroyed and America is rapidly becoming a post-industrial wasteland.

Posted below are 16 nightmarish economic trends to watch carefully in 2011. It is becoming exceedingly apparent that unless something is done rapidly we are heading for an economic collapse of unprecedented magnitude….

#1 Do you want to see something scary? Just check out the chart below. Since the beginning of the economic downturn, the U.S. monetary base has more than doubled. But don’t worry – Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has promised us that this could never cause inflation. In fact, Bernanke says that we need to inject even more dollars into the economy. So if you are alarmed by the chart below, you are just being irrational according to Bernanke….

[chart]

#2 Thousands of our factories, millions of our jobs and hundreds of billions of dollars of our national wealth continue to be shipped overseas. In 1985, the U.S. trade deficit with China was 6 million dollars for the entire year. In the month of August alone, the U.S. trade deficit with China was over 28 billion dollars. Nobel economist Robert W. Fogel of the University of Chicago is projecting that the Chinese economy will be three times larger than the U.S. economy by the year 2040 if current trends continue.

#3 The United States is rapidly becoming a post-industrial wasteland. Back in 1959, manufacturing represented 28 percent of all U.S. economic output. In 2008, it represented only 11.5 percent and it continues to fall. Sadly, the truth is that America is being deindustrialized. As of the end of 2009, less than 12 million Americans worked in manufacturing. The last time that less than 12 million Americans were employed in manufacturing was in 1941.

#4 The number of Americans that have been out of work for an extended period of time has absolutely exploded over the last few years. As 2007 began, there were just over 1 million Americans that had been unemployed for half a year or longer. Today, there are over 6 million Americans that have been unemployed for half a year or longer.

#5 The middle class continues to be squeezed out of existence. According to a poll taken in 2009, 61 percent of Americans ”always or usually” live paycheck to paycheck. That was up substantially from 49 percent in 2008 and 43 percent in 2007.

#6 The number of Americans living in poverty is absolutely skyrocketing. 42.9 million Americans are now on food stamps, and one out of every six Americans is now enrolled in at least one anti-poverty program run by the federal government. Unfortunately, many of those that have been hardest hit by this economic downturn have been children. According to one new study, approximately 21 percent of all children in the United States are living below the poverty line in 2010 - the highest rate in 20 years.

#7 Many American families have been pushed beyond the breaking point during this economic downturn. Over 1.4 million Americans filed for personal bankruptcy in 2009, which represented a 32 percent increase over 2008. The final number for 2010 is expected to be even higher.

#8 The U.S. real estate market continues to stagnate. During the third quarter of 2010, 67 percent of mortgages in Nevada were “underwater”, 49 percent of mortgages in Arizona were “underwater” and 46 percent of mortgages in Florida were “underwater”. So what happens if home prices go down even more?

#9 More elderly Americans than ever are being forced to put off retirement and continue working. In 2010, 55 percent of Americans between the ages of 60 and 64 were in the labor market. Ten years ago, that number was just 47 percent. Unfortunately, it looks like this problem will only get worse in the years ahead. In America today, approximately half of all workers have less than $2000 saved up for retirement.

#10 In the United States today, there are simply far too many retirees and not nearly enough workers to support them. Back in 1950 each retiree’s Social Security benefit was paid for by 16 workers. Today, each retiree’s Social Security benefit is paid for by approximately 3.3 workers. By 2025 it is projected that there will be approximately two workers for each retiree.

#11 Financial assets continue to become concentrated in fewer and fewer hands. For example, the “big four” U.S. banks (Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and Wells Fargo) had approximately 22 percent of all deposits in FDIC-insured institutions back in 2000. As of the middle of 2009 that figure was up to 39 percent.

#12 The Federal Reserve has been destroying the value of the U.S. dollar for decades. Since the Federal Reserve was created in 1913, the U.S. dollar has lost over 95 percent of its purchasing power. An item that cost $20.00 in 1970 would cost you $112.35 today. An item that cost $20.00 in 1913 would cost you $440.33 today.

#13 Commodity prices continue to soar into the stratosphere. Ten years ago, the price of a barrel of oil hovered around 20 to 30 dollars most of the time. Today, the price of oil is rapidly closing in on 100 dollars a barrel and there are now fears that it could soon go much higher than that.

#14 Federal government spending is completely and totally out of control. The U.S. government budget deficit increased to a whopping $150.4 billion last month, which represented the biggest November deficit on record. But our politicians can’t seem to break their addiction to debt. In fact, Democrats are trying to ram through a 1,924 page, 1.1 trillion dollar spending bill in the final days of the lame-duck session of Congress before the Republicans take control of the House of Representatives next year.

#15 The U.S. national debt is rapidly closing in on 14 trillion dollars. It is more than 13 times larger than it was just 30 short years ago. According to an official U.S. Treasury Department report to Congress, the U.S. national debt is projected to climb to an estimated $19.6 trillion by 2015.

#16 Unfortunately, the official government numbers grossly understate the horrific nature of the crisis we are facing. John Williams of Shadow Government Statistics has calculated that if the federal government would have used GAAP accounting standards to measure the federal budget deficit for 2009, it would have been approximately 8.8 trillion dollars. Not only that, but John Williams now says that U.S. government debt is so wildly out of control that it is mathematically impossible for us to “grow” our way out of it….

The government’s finances not only are out of control, but the actual deficit is not containable. Put into perspective, if the government were to raise taxes so as to seize 100% of all wages, salaries and corporate profits, it still would be showing an annual deficit using GAAP accounting on a consistent basis. In like manner, given current revenues, if it stopped spending every penny (including defense and homeland security) other than for Social Security and Medicare obligations, the government still would be showing an annual deficit. Further, the U.S. has no potential way to grow out of this shortfall.

The more one examines the U.S. economic situation, the more depressing it becomes. The U.S. financial system is trapped inside a horrific debt spiral and we are headed straight for economic oblivion.

If our leaders attempt to interrupt the debt spiral it will plunge our economy into a depression. If our leaders attempt to keep the debt spiral going for several more years it will just make the eventual crash even worse. Either way, we are headed for a financial implosion that will be truly historic.

The debt-fueled good times that we have been enjoying for the last several decades are rapidly coming to an end. Unfortunately for the tens of millions of Americans that are already suffering, our economic problems are only going to get worse in the years ahead.’

Jobless Recovery?: 25 Unemployment Statistics That Are Almost Too Depressing To Read ‘… Unemployment is up again! That’s right – even though Wall Street is swimming in cash and the Obama administration is declaring that “the recession is over”, the U.S. unemployment rate has gone even higher. So are you enjoying the jobless recovery? Economic Collapse Blog Dec 4, 2010 ‘Guess what? Unemployment is up again! That’s right – even though Wall Street is swimming in cash and the Obama administration is declaring that “the recession is over”, the U.S. unemployment rate has gone even higher ... Times are really, really tough and unfortunately the long-term outlook is very bleak. We should have compassion on those who are out of work right now, because soon many of us may join them.

The following are 25 unemployment statistics that are almost too depressing to read….

#1 According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the U.S. unemployment rate for November was 9.8 percent. This was up from 9.6 percent in October, and it continues a trend of depressingly high unemployment rates. The official unemployment number has been at 9.5 percent or higher for well over a year at this point.

#2 In November 2006, the “official” U.S. unemployment rate was just 4.5 percent.

#3 Most economists had been expecting the U.S. economy to add about 150,000 jobs in November. Instead, it only added 39,000.

#4 In the United States today, there are over 15 million people who are “officially” considered to be unemployed for statistical purposes. But everyone knows that the “real” number is even much larger than that.

#5 As 2007 began, there were just over 1 million Americans that had been unemployed for half a year or longer. Today, there are over 6 million Americans that have been unemployed for half a year or longer.

#6 The number of “persons not in the labor force” in the United States recently set another new all-time record.

#7 It now takes the average unemployed American over 33 weeks to find a job.

#8 When you throw in “discouraged workers” and “underemployed workers”, the “real” unemployment rate in the state of California is actually about 22 percent.

#9 In America today there are not nearly enough jobs for everyone. In fact, there are now approximately 5 unemployed Americans for every single job opening.

#10 According to The New York Times, Americans that have been unemployed for five weeks or less are three times more likely to find a new job in the coming month than Americans that have been unemployed for over a year.

#11 The U.S. economy would need to create 235,120 new jobs a month to get the unemployment rate down to pre-recession levels by 2016. Does anyone think that there is even a prayer that is going to happen?

#12 There are 9 million Americans that are working part-time for “economic reasons”. In other words, those Americans would gladly take full-time jobs if they could get them, but all they have been able to find is part-time work.

#13 In 2009, total wages, median wages, and average wages all declined in the United States.

#14 As of the end of 2009, less than 12 million Americans worked in manufacturing. The last time that less than 12 million Americans were employed in manufacturing was in 1941.

#15 The United States has lost at least 7.5 million jobs since the recession began.

#16 Today, only about 40 percent of Ford Motor Company’s 178,000 workers are employed in North America, and a big percentage of those jobs are in Canada and Mexico.

#17 In 1959, manufacturing represented 28 percent of U.S. economic output. In 2008, it represented 11.5 percent.

#18 Earlier this year, one poll found that 28% of all American households had at least one member that was looking for a full-time job.

#19 In the United States today, over 18,000 parking lot attendants have college degrees.

#20 The United States has lost a staggering 32 percent of its manufacturing jobs since the year 2000.

#21 As the employment situation continues to stagnate, millions of American families have decided to cut back on things such as insurance coverage. For example, the percentage of American households that have life insurance coverage is at its lowest level in 50 years.

#22 Unless Congress acts, and there is no indication that is going to happen, approximately 2 million Americans will stop receiving unemployment checks over the next couple of months.

#23 A poll that was released by the Pew Research Center back in June discovered that an astounding 55 percent of the U.S. labor force has experienced either unemployment, a pay decrease, a reduction in hours or an involuntary move to part-time work since the economic downturn began.

#24 According to Richard McCormack, the United States has lost over 42,000 factories (and counting) since 2001.

#25 In the United States today, 317,000 waiters and waitresses have college degrees.

But this is what we get for creating the biggest debt bubble in the history of the world. For decades we have been digging a deeper hole for ourselves by going into increasingly larger amounts of debt. In America today, our entire economy is based on debt. Even our money is debt. We were fools if we ever thought this could go on forever. Just think about it. Have you ever gone out and run up a bunch of debt? It can be a lot of fun sitting behind the wheel of a new car, running your credit cards up to the limit and buying a beautiful big house that you cannot afford. But in the end what happens? It always catches up with you. Well, our collective debt is starting to catch up with us. There is a sea of red ink on every level of American society. It is only a matter of time before it destroys our economy. IF YOU THINK THAT THINGS ARE BAD NOW, JUST WAIT. THINGS ARE GOING TO GET A WHOLE LOT WORSE. A HORRIFIC ECONOMIC COLLAPSE IS COMING, AND IT IS GOING TO BE VERY, VERY PAINFUL.’




Howard Davidowitz on the Economy: "Here Are the Numbers ... WE'RE BROKE!" 11-25-10 The U.S. economy "is a complete disaster," Howard Davidowitz declared here in July, the most recent in a string of dire predictions from Tech Ticker's most entertaining guest.On the eve of Thanksgiving, I asked Davidowitz if he had any regrets, or was ready to throw in the towel given recent signs of economic revival. Are you kidding me? "Here are the numbers...we're broke," Davidowitz declares, noting the U.S. government goes $5 billion deeper into debt every day and is facing $1 trillion-plus annual deficits for the next decade. "In other words, we're bankrupt."As with the economy, Davidowitz is unwaveringly consistent in his views on President Obama, calling him "deranged, dysfunctional and discredited."Results of the midterm election show "the people of this country think we are in a catastrophe," he says. "I'm with them."Check the accompanying video for more of Howard's unfettered opinions and stay tuned for additional clips from this interview. And...Happy Thanksgiving! Aaron Task is the host of Tech Ticker. You can follow him on Twitter at @atask or email him at altask@yahoo.com

Timid Tuesday: Is it Safe? Davis ‘… This is how we pay off our current debts and I think bondholders are simply happy to get anything out of a country that admits it owes $15Tn (1/4 of global GDP) but probably owes closer to $60Tn (entire global GDP) in the form of unfunded liabilities. The funniest thing about this (and you have to laugh) is to see Conservative pundits get on TV and talk about how we need to cut $100Bn worth of discretionary spending to "fix" this (while continuing to spend $1Tn on the military and $1Tn on tax cuts for the top 1% each year). There is no fixing this and even a Republican said you can’t fool all of the people all of the time. THIS HOUSE OF CARDS IS TEETERING FOLKS – PLEASE BE CAREFUL OUT THERE! ‘



17 Things Worrying Investors Lloyd's Wall of Worry

Worry Count: 17


CHINA: 1,330,044,605 people can’t be wrong.

The PIIGS: Fasten your seatbelts. It’s gonna be a long, bumpy, expensive, weird, (insert your own adjective here) freak show of a ride.

CALIFORNIA AND THE OTHER 49 STATES: Not yet as dire as “The PIIGS”. Might I suggest the classier moniker of “The Prosciuttos” for the American basket-case states?

QE II: Gobble?

U.S. ECONOMY: The “Punky Brewster” of the global economic landscape.

UNEMPLOYMENT: Only thing worse than losing your job, losing your unemployment check. At least there’s the holiday season to cheer everyone up (read: heavy sarcasm).

TAXES: Praying to the Financial Market Gods that we don’t have another TARP-like vote fiasco.

OBAMA ADMINISTRATION PART II: Still two years before the Pres. election and the peanut gallery is already pleading for a Hail Mary Pass to get them back in the game.

HFT: Instead of beating up these liquidity supplying traders, let’s honor them with their very own stock exchange. But wait -- with no retail saps to pick-off they will never get that Day 1 opening bell tick. Perfect.

XMAS 2010: As my professor friend Nick says, “Nowadays Americans are dining off of two menus – The Million Dollar and the $0.99 Cent.” And both are pissed about it.

CURRENCIES: Poor Mr. Greenback. Does someone need a hug?

HOUSING CRISIS: Price Stabilization – Are we there yet? Just a little bit more. Are we there yet? Just a little bit more. Are we there yet? Just a little bit more….

INFLATION/DEFLATION: Fed Chief Ben B. comes out swinging from his heels in defense of inflation promotion. Don’t punch yourself out as this one is likely to go the distance.

COMMODITIES: Corrected but still sky high; fortunately these prices are only affecting core, basic, life-sustaining necessities and sparing our electronic gadgets and plus-sized SUVs. Whew!

INSIDER TRADING: Another black eye for Hedge Funds. I estimate that makes black eye number 6,597.

INTEREST RATES: South Korea and China slowly turning up the dial to “11”. On the other hand the U.S. has removed the dial altogether. This never ends well….

NORTH KOREA: Here we go again.



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