Business / Economic / Financial
[ This link to a somewhat more cumulative blog posts page will precede current days news since most all topics remain current in terms of impact and longer-term effect and can be searched by topical index term more easily. The same is provided since the blog site http://alpeiablog.blogspot.com has just been censored as to size by google which is typical for google as nsa / cia / gov’t shill as more are becoming aware of. The same is true for microsoft, another co. that’s seen their best days and relies on the government to maintain their monopoly. Up to now the better page http://www.scribd.com/alpeia is provided for ease of formatting and clarity thereby while the Washington Post page is the real deal but without formatting http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/community/mypost/index.html?plckPersonaPage=PersonaComments&plckUserId=alpeia&newspaperUserId=alpeia . The following is the cumulative archive of blog posts / topics for 2010 as the new year starts anew: http://albertpeia.com/December312010postsarchive.htm or PDF formatted version
http://albertpeia.com/December312010postsarchive.pdf ]
White House more hard-nosed about Chinese government / Hu to face a tougher Obama administration (Washington Post) [ Please … don’t make me laugh … and, are you sure you didn’t mean more ‘brown-nosed’ about the Chinese government. This is starting to sound like seed material for the Weekend Update SNL skit segment, ‘REALLY’. I mean, really. Does anybody believe this? Come on … I don’t think so! ] Analysts say President Hu Jintao is eager to burnish his legacy, but he will find a White House that views his government with misgivings.
Concerns rise over Afghan forces (Washington Post) [ Well, to their credit, at least the Afghans purport to know how to count which of course is something lost on defacto bankrupt america and so-called ‘coalition’ members. After all, there will come a time when this military apparatus will say, pay / feed me, at which point the reply will be, with what, at which point, obfuscated or not, all hell breaks loose. ]
Proposed sale of land stokes anti-Chinese views Job creation seen as key to China's investment in U.S. (Washington Post) [ Boy, you can’t make this stuff up! Talk about coming full circle. I think Japan and the u.s. are constrained to start getting used to it. From scourge for taking jobs to now prospective savior for potentially creating them, I’d say communist China’s in the catbird’s seat as defacto bankrupt america pounds salt and fritters away money she doesn’t have in perpetual needless wars in the mideast, etc.. ]
Obama to feds: Cut the red tape (Washington Post) [ Riiiiight! That red tape thing … you know, as in laws, regulations that rein in corrupt, illegal, fraudulent behavior … Heck, we all know they’re not enforced anyway; ie., still no pros of the frauds on wall street, plus legislative help to cover-up their gargantuan past (and ongoing) crimes by way of mark to anything FASB rule change for those worthless toxic paper assets from the last fraud, etc.. Yes … change, as in change change by the man of change, changer wobama the ‘b’ for b*** s***!. After all, the next election cycle will be gearing up and those campaign funds need replenishin’. Sounds like a plan. ]
Steve Jobs Your Take: Apple without Steve Jobs (Washington Post) [ Yeah! It’s quite difficult to imagine in any positive sense. Indeed, there was a feeding frenzy among the dinosaurs (ie., microsoft, et als) purportedly owing to the absence of the 800 pound gorilla (Apple – far advanced in evolutionary terms) which according to the frauds on wall street should benefit the dinosaurs, spiking their share prices (unlike when gates, who just loved that archaic BASIC programming language to death, etc., left; and then the notorious problems with that ‘ms kernel’ that only people who know, KNOW). Jobs indeed will be sorely missed! ]
[ It should be noted that the paranoid american criminals have once again, this time by way of hack via microsoft (willing accomplice as was att of jersey / dumbya bushland – deleted / I caught the problem and have also installed opensource.org which I strongly recommend (at least a look – won’t disappoint – I used same for the archived PDF post files) is free and a breeze to use and though compatible with word and a multitude of other formats, for now on these specific web site documents (I have image folders already linked which would require at least a look) it’s easier and faster for the time-being for me to add to the existing documents with word; but as is so of america, microsoft’s a dinosaur) gave me a few problems, serious enough to require a redo, which I have corrected / overcome; but believe me, I won’t forget it! They will be sorry! ]
Perception vs. Reality: Four Reasons to Remain Cautious on U.S. Equities [ Hey, Abbott … That’s Lou Costello calling him from the other side … Wake up! … Just kidding … but I’m not kidding when I say that contrary to Abbott’s view, infra, if you’re not a successful market timer you should rethink your position as an equity investor. Moreover, in contradistinction to Mr. Abbott’s implication, if you’re not a successful speculator (there are very few), you should rethink your position as a short seller: reason…, you could be wiped out, lose more than your principal, forced to cover (that’s why the same is considered a contrary market indicator, particularly in these manipulated, contrived markets). When I did my MBA thesis (1977, NYU, GBA, Eve.Prog., Finance), a review of the data revealed even then (and much more so now with computer programmed market manipulation) that the market remained biased / propped up (artificially, especially now with computerized manipulation) to the upside for far longer periods of time than for the downside which meant that dollar-cost averaging (through regular, periodic investment, for example), meant you were accumulating shares at higher prices generally for longer periods of time skewing the average cost to the upside (dollar-cost-averaging in declining markets was ok if analysis / forecast saw resurgence based on fundamentals - now absent – which is timing, as even senile wall street / gov’t shill Buffet would attest, that ‘greedy when others are fearful thing’). Abbott discusses perception which is the psychological factor involved in security evaluation / analysis; but investors need not and should become nuts themselves, particularly when as now, the inmates are running the asylum. ] Abbott ‘Perception determines short-term market movements. The difference between perception and reality determines the direction of major market trends. Though I generally try to avoid making macro prognostications, I believe bottom-up analysis can be informative about the current level of stock prices. I want to share what my recent work tells me about where stocks are (and where they might be headed). I will outline some various nuggets of collective wisdom that are taken for granted right now by stock bulls, and I will attempt to demonstrate how reality is likely to differ from these perceptions.
First, a disclaimer. This is not a market timing call. At all times, I stay away from market timing predictions. I think that's a loser's game in the long run. Even if I'm correct about the discrepancies between the following perceptions and realities, there's no saying when people will change their minds or shift their focuses. That said, let's dive in.
Perception vs. Reality #1
Perception: Low Interest Rates, Questionable Bond Outlook Means Stocks are Attractive
Reality: Interest Rates Are Being Artificially and Deliberately Manipulated
It's no secret that the Federal Reserve's low interest rate policy and quantitative easing efforts have held interest rates very low for very long. However, when people talk about stock market implications of bond yields, they rarely mention the fact that bond yields are artificially low. In an unmanipulated market, bond prices and stock valuations should be related, but I regard that connection as highly dubious right now. Investors who say that stocks deserve higher multiples (lower earnings yields) because bond yields are so low may well be setting themselves up for disappointing returns/frustrating losses when bond prices normalize. Again, this isn't a market timing call, and yields may remain low for quite some time. But, eventually this discrepancy will correct itself, and stock performance is likely to suffer at that time.
Perception vs. Reality #2
Perception: Earnings Growth Has Been Strong and Will Remain That Way
Reality: Top-Line Growth Will Have to Pick Up; Cost-Cutting has Run Its Course
Earnings growth has certainly been robust, but much of the strength has come from companies running lean cost structures and wringing as much efficiency as possible out of their employees and their assets. Though the recession has ended, the economy is not yet healthy enough to fuel strong sales growth. Companies can only boost profits by cutting costs and increasing productivity for so long. Therefore, top-line growth will have to play a larger role going forward than it has over the past 4-6 quarters. Whether or not economic growth is strong enough to drive revenue increases is unsure, but the current level of stock prices undoubtedly assumes it is. Any stagnation of the recovery and concomitant sluggish sales will likely hit stock prices.
Perception vs. Reality #3
Perception: European Debt Crisis Drives Short-Term Volatility, but It's Not a Long-Term Concern
Reality: Crisis May Be a Harbinger of What's to Come in the U.S. if States, the Feds Don't Improve Balance Sheets
So far, turmoil in Greece and Ireland has served only as a temporary headwind to U.S. stocks. In keeping with the investment world's increasingly short-term focus, people seem more concerned with what fiscal crises in Europe mean for U.S. stocks over the coming days and months than with what they might mean down the road. I believe that this interpretation misses the mark. Since the U.S. fiscal situtation is generally considered to be stronger than that in many European countries, U.S. federal and municipal debt issuance has been relatively smooth, and interest rates have only risen modestly. If the U.S. doesn't get serious about its fiscal woes, eventually the crisis will arrive on American shores. There's no way of telling when this might happen, but the current level of stock prices seems to imply that it never will.
Here's the problem with that. To fix the federal balance sheet and/or to improve state and municipal balance sheets, legislators will have to raise taxes and/or cut spending. Tax hikes and spending cuts both reduce consumer spending. This hurts growth. There's no way around this. Stocks can certainly continue to rise for some time, but austerity will be bearish if/when it comes. If it doesn't come, we're in for a much bigger crisis some time down the road.
Perception vs. Reality #4
Perception: Everywhere You Look, You See Good Companies at Cheap Prices
Reality: It's Hard to Find Genuine Bargains, but There are Intriguing Short Prospects Everywhere
There is no shortage of stock market commentators who claim that they see bargains everywhere they look. Perhaps I'm not looking in the right places, but I've been having a difficult and increasingly impossible time finding good companies at reasonable prices. I use similar criteria to assess long and short investments, and I find intriguing shorts in lots of sectors right now. This tells me that valuations are stretched. Certainly they can become more so before we get a selloff, but every day that stocks rally, they get more expensive.
I've written on Seeking Alpha about a number of stocks which I regard as expensive (CRM, OPEN, GMCR), and take my word for it: there are plenty more than these whose shares I do not want to own at present levels. A few weeks ago, I also mused about the Facebook-Goldman deal and argued that this valuation is indicative of excessive investor enthusiasm. Bargains are hard to find, and as valuations go up, so does positive sentiment. While this is not a prediction of an impending correction or bear market, it is a message of caution for people who think stocks are cheap right now.
All that said, I always try to consider both sides of any investment issue, and there are some reasons for optimism. Job growth has shown signs of improvement, and some economic data have been increasingly (though not uniformly) positive. The Federal Reserve remains accommodative, and I'm skeptical about whether or not there is political will for austerity. For these reasons, stocks could continue onward and upward. That said, I see too many reasons for caution, and investors are turning a blind eye to these concerns as their complacency rises.’
Poor Recovery: The Problem Is Institutional [ Well it’s true that the problem is institutional as in pervasively corrupt, incompetent, nonproductive in real terms relative to their cost / damage (still no pros on the wall street fraud which is ongoing in terms of the last crisis, the worthless paper marked to anything, and the current bubble fraud that’s high-frequency computerized churn-and-earn high-frequency commissioned / sold into, 360 tons of $100 bills disappear in Iraq, etc.. What do they get paid for?) ( Peter Schiff: Washington a parasite to economy ‘US foreclosures hit record highs in 2010, but that may not be the worst of it. 2011 may be even worse. Meanwhile, JP Morgan Chase exceeded market expectations, announcing a 47% rise in quarterly profits and released details on a $28.1 billion pay and bonus pool. Peter Schiff, the President of Euro Pacific Capital said Washington and Wall Street are becoming one force and are sucking the underlying American dry like a parasite’.); but the problem is structural, as in transfer of jobs, industries, etc. (among the sources of the huge over-compensation to wall street, company executives), never to return in any meaningful sense; and as in the defacto bankruptcy of the nation with insurmountable record debt / deficits or stated another way, broke. Unlike in the past, once beyond the propaganda, rhetoric, and smoke and mirrors / obfuscation, there is no prospective way for america to grow its way out, nor are there funds in real money with which to do it. Quite simply, america’s broke / bankrupt in every which way. ] Loundsbury ‘Harold Meyerson, Op Ed Columnist at The Washington Post, has hit the nail right on the head, in the opinion of GEI. Meyerson says the debate about whether the recession and poor recovery is a cyclical problem or a structural problem is misguided. He says the problem is institutional - - - and is he ever right!
In a column last week, Myerson points out that the devastation of The Great Recession has fallen disproportionately on the blue collar population, those without a college degree. And he traces the rolling over of median family income in this century, not just in the downturn, but since the turn of the century. Even at the peak, in 2007, median family income was less than in 2000.
What Meyerson doesn't point out is that average incomes have faired better in the 21st century and in all of the past 50 years. In fact, average family income has risen more than 2.5 times as much and median income over the last 30 years. Why is this important? Because the more there is a fat tail of ever higher incomes for a few, the greater the difference between average and median income becomes.
Myerson says:
The great sociologist William Julius Wilson has long argued that the key to the unraveling of the lives of the African American poor was the decline in the number of "marriageable males" as work disappeared from the inner city. Much the same could now be said of working-class whites in neighborhoods that may not look like the ghettos of Cleveland or Detroit but in which productive economic activity is increasingly hard to find.
This grim new reality has yet to inform our debate over how to come back from this mega-recession. Those who believe our downturn is cyclical argue that job-creating public spending can restore us to prosperity, while those who believe it's structural - that we have too many carpenters, say, and not enough nurses - believe that we should leave things be while American workers acquire new skills and enter different lines of work. But there's a third way to look at the recession: that it's institutional, that it's the consequence of the decisions by leading banks and corporations to stop investing in the job-creating enterprises that were the key to broadly shared prosperity.
Since Meyerson has chosen income disparity as a cornerstone of his argument, let's look at how incomes have grown over the last 50 years. These are shown in the following graph, not adjusted for inflation.
click to enlarge images [chart]
Real median income and average income seem to grow similarly in the 1950s and 1960s, the growth of average income starts to pull away in the mid-1960s and appears to continue to gain gound for the the next 40+ years. The more average income deviates from median income the more money is found in the high income tail on the distribution curve. This is often called a "fat tail", which is very appropriate in this discussion because that is where the fat cats are. The fat tail has not gotten so because ten times as many people equaled the incomes of the former fat cats, but more because a few fat cats have received 10 times the income. This is exemplified by the often quoted statistic that average CEO salaries were 40x average worker pay 50 years ago and today are more like 400x.
The change income distribution that seems to be appearing in the above graph becomes more apparent in the following graph where real income gains are shown for the last six decades starting with the ten years from 1949 - 1959 (the 1950s) and ending with 1999 - 2009 (the 2000s). [chart]
The 1950s and 60s were real boom years. Starting with the 1970s a lower level of income growth was established, but even that lower level could not be maintained in the 2000s.
After the 1950s every decade has seen average real income grow more than the median. The fat tail has gotten fatter over the past half century in every decade, without exception. Yes the average did decline in the 2000s, but the median declined 76% more!
The most dramatic pattern of change is evident when the data is divided into two halves: 1949 to 1979 and 1979 - 2009. This is done in the following graph: [chart]
For thirty years after World War II the wealth of the country increased in a balanced manner. The average income containing the greater contribution from the top earners of the day, grew at a rate very similar to the income growth of the broader population, represented by the median.
Yes there were "fat cats" and they had significantly larger incomes than the bulk of the population. And these top incomes grew over those three decades, but at almost the same rate as the majority of the populace.
Then something happened. From 1979-2009 it appears that the American pie suddenly got smaller. In the later three decades the real median income growth was less than 10% of the rate seen from 1949 to 1979. And as the pie got smaller, the fat cats took a much larger share. The average income grew at a rate 254% that of the median income. You might say that, as the cow gave less milk, the top of the economic ladder skimmed more and more cream off the top.
Meyerson identifies the force majuere to be corporate America:
Our multinational companies still invest, of course - just not at home. A study by the Business Roundtable and the U.S. Council Foundation found that the share of the profits of U.S.-based multinationals that came from their foreign affiliates had increased from 17 percent in 1977 and 27 percent in 1994 to 48.6 percent in 2006. As the companies' revenue from abroad has increased, their dependence on American consumers has diminished. The equilibrium among production, wages and purchasing power - the equilibrium that Henry Ford famously recognized when he upped his workers' pay to an unheard-of $5 a day in 1913 so they could afford to buy the cars they made, the equilibrium that became the model for 20th-century American capitalism - has been shattered. Making and selling their goods abroad, U.S. multinationals can slash their workforces and reduce their wages at home while retaining their revenue and increasing their profits. And that's exactly what they've done.
Meyerson doesn't get into some of the other areas that might be brought to bear on the current condition of the American economy:
- He doesn't address the fact that the U.S. ranks below some third world countries in education.
- He doesn't discuss the increasing burden of health care, both because costs have been running out of control and because an ever increasing portion of the population is kept from making the contribution they might have otherwise because of poor health.
- He doesn't discuss the capture of much potential domestic capital by financial engineers who find it much easier to get rich in a rigged casino than to make money the old fashioned way.
Part of the problem is that Americans have fallen into the way of the easiest path, where, either by credit card or by making quick trades, the desires of the moment are satisfied with no seemingly current cost.
It seems that few want to think about the needs of tomorrow. This is true starting with the masses who kiss off the idea of working hard in school to prepare for what they will need 20 years down the road. This is also true of the "capitalist" who finds that skimming a few percent off each of many deals a year to get quick, large quarterly returns is much easier than investing and building something that will will make much larger returns extending over decades and producing things of real economic utility.
There are a number of things that Meyerson does not address, but if you want to hit one nail at a time, I think he has picked the baddest nail in the plank. He finishes his column thusly:
Our economic woes, then, are not simply cyclical or structural. They are also - chiefly - institutional, the consequence of U.S. corporate behavior that has plunged us into a downward cycle of underinvestment, underemployment and under-consumption. Our solutions must be similarly institutional, requiring, for starters, the seating of public and worker representatives on corporate boards. Short of that, there will be no real prospects for reversing America's downward mobility.
If we were to address all the other issues I mentioned previously and did not address the institutional problem Meterson has identified, we would not ultimately solve our economic puzzle.’
Self Correcting Market Poses Unique Situation Pierce ‘There is quite a danger premium built into this market as the market continues to grind higher. Here are a few thoughts as to what the look of a correction could look like from user AlbertaRocks on Seeking Alpha referencing the Hindenburg Omen, Goldman Sacks, and market makers.
Sources are saying that the vast majority of investors are now in the market “with no hedge”, meaning with no puts. But you can bet that the institutional managers have some protection of some sort. If they don’t have puts in place, you can be pretty sure that they have trailing stops in place. And we can rest assured that they’re tightening those trailing stops with each passing day. The more wacky and contrived this melt-up becomes, the tighter they’ll move them. Wouldn’t you just love to know how tight those stops are, and how many shares are for sale at each price level just below the market? You can bet the farm that Goldman knows.
That’s most likely why there’s been no sell-off allowed. And that’s why there’s little likelihood of there being any sell-off that they can control. I’ve been speculating on this for damned near a year now. I thought they’d lost control at the August correction, but I was wrong. But the further this Fed induced insanity has gone, the more likely it is that the xxxxxxx (the Fed, GS and their minions) are probably finally trapped. This is why we “need” to see if 1130 holds. If it does, I’d bet that it would be “barely”. If it doesn’t, then 900 might not hold either. Anyway, that’s why I’m expecting violence in the markets. I don’t even know whether to expect a nice, tidy slow melt-down that accelerates (if that’s even possible), or a 40 handle gap lower one of these days. But whatever it is, when those stops begin triggering, there won’t be a damned thing GS can do about it other than buy them all up… or just let ‘em go and throw all their own shares into the pot as well. If the bankers ever want out, the question we’ve all be asking is “who they gonna sell to?”. Now we can add the fact that not only do they have nobody to sell to, but they have billions of shares of competition who’ll want out at the same time as the banks do. Man…. I can’t see how it could be anything other than a violent crash.’
Gauging Economic Activity: It Takes Money to Make Money Hansen ‘It appears that most people focus on money flows as the gauge of economic activity. Non-monetary measures are generally ignored. GDP measures money flows.
Consider that the majority of people (aka "consumers") in the USA (and the world for that matter) account for a small portion of the money movements. Looking at incomes (and not expenditures), the reality comes into focus.
click to enlarge images
The above graph shows the breakdown of the economy by income - not selected expenditure like GDP. The sum of this income pie is several times GDP as money moves around the economy. The relationship between the incomes of people, business and government (as shown on the above pie chart) has remained fairly constant since 1948.
What has changed is the income distribution of people (totaling 43% of total USA income) in the yellow and green pie slices. The yellow pie slice of Joe Sixpack has been getting smaller while the green pie slice for the richer Americans has been getting larger.
Average income becomes larger than median income as the number of high earners increases.
When we use money flows as a metric to understand how well an economy is doing, the majority of the population (the yellow pie slice) becomes insignificant. Joe Sixpack does not have enough money to be a factor in this economy where money flows are the squeaky wheel which gets the grease. As the economic controllers are graded by how much money flows grow, natural gravity (not conspiracy or lobbyists) would cause laws and regulations to favor groups (business and high worth people) which will make the "money flow" economy expand.
In the case of the USA, 80% of the people amount to 40% of personal income, while 20% of the people make 60% of personal income. This fixation on money movements as a metric to understand economic growth favors the elements of the economy which most easily can generate faster monetary expansion.
You remember the saying "It takes money to make money".
For the richest people of the economy, this has translated into long term wealth building (chart complements of Wikipedia).
If economic progress was based on counting jobs, or living conditions, or life expectancy - attention would be directed towards that metric instead of GDP which has little in common with Joe Sixpack, or the majority of Americans. The GDP metric is now discriminating against Joe Sixpack.
GDP in chained dollars keeps rising. Joe is getting further behind.
Economic News This Week:
Econintersect economic forecast for January 2010 pointing to a slightly improving economy. This week the Weekly Leading Index (WLI) from ECRI continued to improve from 3.4 to 3.7 implying the business conditions six months from now might be improving. Six monts ago, the WLI was declining indicating that December should have been slightly worse then July 2010. This December data is coming in fairly strong.
[chart]
Initial unemployment claims in this week’s release increased slightly. If you look at the not seasonally adjusted claims - they rose to an eye popping 770,413.
Here is a comparison to prior years non-seasonally adjusted initial claims with the approximate gain over the previous week:
- 2005 693,776 (+153K)
- 2006 555,114 (+80K)
- 2007 506,709 (+0K)
- 2008 547,943 (+25K)
- 2009 956,791 (+225K)
- 2010 815,593 (+170K)
- 2011 770,413 (+192K)
It is likely that the seasonal adjustment factors are a little off this week, and is one more reason to follow the four week moving average with smooths out the inconsistencies in the data. The unadjusted increase for the first week of the year in 2011 is similar to the two preceeding years (2009 and 2010). All three are obviously much larger than the preceeding three years (2006,2007 and 2008). One is tempted to ascribe this difference to the institution of a New Normal. However, 2005 (153,000) is close to the range observed for 2009-2011 so maybe the distribution of data 2006-2011 is a circumstantial arrangement of random data.
Moral: Exercize caution when casually attributing observations to a "New" Normal.
Most of the data released this week was inconsistent with Econintersect’s December forecast of slow growth - and it more resembles Econintersect's January forecast. Overall the December data released this week was strong. However, the transport indicators began their improvement in December which historically foretells economic improvement. Warning: one month does not make a trend. The table below itemizes the major events and analysis this week.
Weekly Economic Release Scorecard:
| Item | Headline | Analysis |
| Up 0.5% | Energy price surge a concern to Econintersect for 2011 economic expansion | |
| Up 0.8% | This is a gross understatement. This is record sales up 8% YoY. | |
| Up 0.8% | Agree that Industrial Production increased | |
| Up 1.2% | This is November Data - but the increase is confirmed by the unadjusted data | |
| Up 1.1% MoM | Energy surged 7.7%. Likely to show up in CPI in the following months | |
| Shrunk $100 million | Historically high exports but surplus likely grew $3.5 billion | |
|
| Consumer Contraction is now 270 days old | |
| Up 2.4% | Diesel use at December historical highs | |
| Up 7.3% | Positive trend lines going into 2011 | |
| Down 0.6% | Both consumer sentiment and small business are in the same relative negative positions | |
| Up 1.9% | November sales are at historical highs for November | |
|
| Avoid owning fixed assets | |
|
| Historically major bond holders dump at first sign of inflation | |
|
| Chupacabra is not coming to eat our goats | |
|
| There is far more risk then realized | |
|
| The underlying economic driver is jobs. | |
|
| This entire economic policy morass is encumbered with lack of experimental control. |
Bankruptcy this week: Constar International Inc.
Bank Failures This Week: [chart] ‘
On Unemployment, Inflation and Flawed Fed Logic [ Hasner has omitted a very crucial fact: america’s defacto bankrupt and saddled with insurmountable record level debt! ] Hasner ‘The sum total of Fed actions over the past 3 years can probably be summed up as the central bank attempting to create its own reality. They have committed to the following :
- Keeping deflation at bay and raising the inflation rate
- Keeping the Fed Funds rate low for an indefinite period (forever?)
- QE1 and Q2 (and Q3)? (Quantitative Easing - the purchase of US government securities in the open market)
- Supposedly working toward full employment while stating that it will take 4 to 5 years for employment to recover?
All of these actions are the result of a single fact: They are compensating for failing to do the job they were tasked with from 2000 to 2008. They failed and we pay and pay.
I think we have to first explore why inflation is so important to the Fed to make sense of this mess.
The banks are still in a big hole (of their own digging) and need housing prices to stay elevated to keep their losses in check. These same banks need to recapitalize at low interest rates (via bond issuance) and to profit from the rate spread to keep their salary game intact. The wealthiest individuals in America stand to lose the most from deflation, even though housing price devaluation would enable an entire new generation of hard working Americans to participate in the housing market.
The influence of the wealthy on Fed policy is not hard to understand. Keep the status quo and you are safe from congressional inquiry as a Fed governor; do what's in the best long term best interest of the American citizenry at large and you are not. Congress by and large will continue to go along with this charade for as long as we let them. It should be "one man, one vote", but these days it’s how many dollars you can pony up that determines how many "votes" you can muster.
Why does inflation serve the largest banks and corporations disproportionately while hurting the average working citizen?
Greater Inflation is desired because the largest banks still hold massive amounts of "bad" loans on their books that simply cannot be justified under any scenario except elevated housing prices. Greater inflation is desired by large multinational businesses so that they may increase current pricing levels and continue to grow profitability for shareholders. Greater inflation is sought so that the Fed can regain credibility and maintain the illusion of being in control of the markets. Inflation in basic necessities such as food, energy, health care and educational expenses have the potential to drain the resources of anyone below the upper strata of society. Making life harder for those on the margin to protect those at the top is not only bad economic policy, it's immoral.
What might the potential long term effects of a near zero Fed funds rate be?
The longer the Fed keeps rates at zero, the longer the banks have to develop strategies for operating in a "risk" free capital environment. Given past history, it's only a matter of time (when, not if) until the banks blow the economy up yet again. Low rates directly benefit the banks and large corporate sectors of the economy. They can borrow at historic low rates whereas the average citizen has no capability of obtaining such funding. While mortgage rates have moved to levels we have not seen in a decades, the corresponding tightening in loan qualification standards means that many cannot take advantage of them. Profits to the largest businesses and no tangible benefit to the American citizen - can you see a pattern developing?
The Fed will eventually be faced with a quandary of enormous proportions. Either raise rates and suffer the wrath of a capital allocation system that has spent the better part of 5 years devising the most profitable ways to game that system, or keep rates at or near zero and continue favoring the largest and wealthiest businesses in America over the working class. I fear the Fed may be secretly planning to permanently lower rates because I cannot frankly see any other way out of their dilemma.
Let's talk about employment in America, or more correctly, the problem with employment in America.
The latest government report shows a 9.4% rate of unemployment. While that statistic is down from 9.8% from the previous month, it probably reflects people actually dropping out of the labor force and not gains in employment. They drop out when their discouragement level becomes so high it is unbearable for them to keep trying. Unbearable for them to keep trying to seek gainful employment. Is this the America we really want?
The latest report shows that 103,000 jobs were created. This is not even near enough to take up the new workers entering the work force, let alone put back to work the tens of millions (yes that's right....tens of millions) of people who have lost their jobs and are seeking work. I can't believe this is happening in America. It's sickening. Record profits and cash balances for America's biggest businesses and no employment opportunities for the working class.
Unemployment compensation was extended to 99 weeks for those seeking work. But what was missing was any sort of connection between these benefits and actually re-training these folks for careers that may be in demand. If a worker is laid off due to economic circumstances, chances are his line of work or skillset is not in demand anymore. Why in the world are we not getting these folks into new careers? I know for some it is a stretch to think that an educated IT worker may now have to re-train as a health care worker or a nursing home assistant, but at some point in this vicious cycle you have to let the free market work.
We currently 'import' people from all over the world to staff our hospitals and nursing homes and I sometimes wonder why we are not putting able bodied Americans to work instead of just sending them 99 weeks of unemployment checks while they go through the futile exercise of trying to re-live their past glories. The reason, of course, is that these jobs pay much less than their former occupations and then they wouldn't be able to afford that damn McMansion anymore. You do see it all goes back to the banks and their bad loans. When does it all end? The Fed believes that more inflation is the answer to unemployment in America. How about you?
To be constructive in my final analysis, I recommend we do the following things NOW to get this country back on the path to economic opportunity for all, and not just those who already have it:
- Stop trying to keep housing prices inflated. Houses are overpriced now and the market laws of supply and demand should be allowed to set the price level.
- Force the banks to clean up the bad loans. I frankly don't care how much it would hurt profitability. Enough is enough. If we force them to take losses on their bad loans and clear their balance sheets, we can finally get back to the business of growing America for all citizens. The one benefit is the huge Wall Street salary and bonus scam will have to come to an end. Someone in government has got to have enough backbone to take them on - I just don't know who that is.
- Instead of spending taxpayer resources on efforts to keep housing price levels inflated, we should use that money to create a “What's needed now” job clearance engine that will be a government/private industry partnership. When someone loses their job, they would be required to utilize the services of this job clearing facility and be prepared to be re-trained, if necessary. If they don't want to, fine, but the unemployment checks would soon stop. Incentive enough, I would hope. We have become a society of pampered “I want it now” consumers and it's time we realized that our economic competitors in the global scheme are working harder at jobs we would not consider "worthy". We need to wise up before they overtake us and become the ones who determine our economic destiny instead of the other way around. Any work is good work, period.
- We need to get interest rates to a level 3.5 to 5%, where seniors and other people who cannot afford risk taking in any form can still provide for themselves after a lifetime of hard work and savings. What we are doing to these people is surely a crime, and for what? To keep the banks in the salary and bonus business?
- Finally, we absolutely need to question the way we have allowed the largest banks to get bigger during the crisis without regard to solving the "too big to fail" problem. I know that nobody in Congress wants to take them on, but the banks need to be broken up. It's the only way America can get back on sound footing and prevent future disasters.’
Chinese Yuan; A new world reserve currency? Economic Assassin | Twelve days into the New Year (2011) and China has already set the wheels in motion to use their most powerful weapon, the Yuan, in order to combat inflation.
China Says the End of the Dollar is Near WSJ & AFP | Chinese President Hu Jintao emphasized the need for cooperation with the U.S. in areas from new energy to space ahead of his visit to Washington this week, but he called the present U.S. dollar-dominated currency system a “product of the past” and highlighted moves to turn the yuan into a global currency.
BullionVault.com Runs Out Of Silver In Germany With the US Mint selling silver at an unprecedented pace, it was only a matter of time before the silver shortage would be spotted across the Atlantic, where distributors ran out of both gold and silver on a daily basis during the first time Europe became insolvent some time in early May 2010.
“The Fed No Longer Even Denies that the Purpose of Its Latest Blast of Bond Purchases … Is To Drive Up Wall Street Of course, rather than admit that the Fed is failing at driving down rates, rising rates are now being heralded as a sign of success.
Home Building, Sales Probably Languished as Market Lagged Behind Recovery Bloomberg | Homebuilding probably dropped in December and sales of existing houses struggled to rebound from a post-tax credit slump, reflecting a market trying to regain its footing more than a year into the economic recovery, economists said before reports this week.
BP’s Rosneft Deal Replaces Reserves Lost in Post-Spill Sales at Half Price Bloomberg | BP Plc’s $7.8 billion share swap with OAO Rosneft will replace almost all the reserves it sold to pay for the Gulf of Mexico spill at less than half price.
UK: Oil Prices May Kill The Economy NICK Clegg earlier this week made a pitch for the hearts of “alarm clock Britain”: those who “come rain or shine are busy making Britain tick”. He was right to identify working people as being in need of support, having been taken for granted during the Labour years.
Rising gasoline prices sour U.S. consumer mood Rising gasoline prices beat down U.S. consumer sentiment in early January, overshadowing an improved job outlook and passage of temporary federal tax breaks, a survey released on Friday showed.
Silver: From $30/oz to over $500 by 2020 And from $500 to $5000 by 2030!
The Outlook for Inflation Inflation Trader ‘Retail Sales was softer-than-expected (+0.6%, +0.5% ex-auto, plus downward revisions, versus 0.8%/0.7% expected), Industrial Production stronger-than-expected (+0.8% versus +0.5%), and CPI a smidge above expectations (maintaining 0.8% y/y on core, and rising to 1.5% y/y on headline). More on CPI later.
“Close enough!” cried the equity traders, who subsequently put up prices 0.7% on the day, to 28-month highs in the S&P. Bond traders also felt the balance favored a stronger economy and faster price increases, but moved yields only a few basis points higher with the 10y note to 3.33%. Inflation swaps curiously softened 2-5bps despite the reasonably sunny outlook for carry; some traders and investors feel the inflation market is a bit frothy right now – which it is, but supply is tight and I am not sure I’d be very aggressive about shorting inflation-linked bonds even at these valuations.
With Friday’s trading, the Jan-2011 TIPS have matured. The yield of the bond over its lifetime is a picture of the economy of the 2000s (see Chart, click to enlarge, source MorganMarkets). The recession of the early part of the decade shows up clearly, as does the expansion from 2004-07; the dip in late 2007 as the developing recession became apparent was followed by the spike as Lehman collapsed and balance sheets became allergic to anything except TBills. It was clearly the buying opportunity of the last few decades in fixed-income, as the ongoing crisis was more consistent with sub-zero real yields, and the issue subsequently rallied nearly 700 basis points in 15 months from December 2008 to March 2010.
Jan 11s, we'll miss ye.
So now, let’s talk about CPI.
Core CPI was +0.092% month-on-month; the annual rate of change rose slightly to +0.804%. I’d mentioned Friday the potential for a surprise higher in the monthly change because of the reversal of last month’s seasonal adjustment quirk (which, in November, held the monthly change down). This didn’t happen, and my suspicion is that the main part of the effect will actually be seen in this month: January 2010’s seasonally-adjusted change in core CPI was a rather surprising -0.14%, which accounts for most of the difference in the seasonally-adjusted and non-seasonally-adjusted year-on-year series. We will have to wait a month to see.
But that is just sharp-pencil trivia for the bow-tied set. The bottom line is that the year-on-year change in core CPI is now rising. The headline figure did surprise on the upside, printing +0.505% to put the year-on-year rise at +1.496%. This was accomplished mostly through the rise in commodities (gasoline contributed 0.37% to the headline number, so with core+gasoline you have almost all of the month’s change), and more of that is to come over the next few months.
Perhaps more surprising is that the second-largest contribution came from housing, which added 0.08% to the overall figure and therefore accounts for just about all of the rise in core CPI. This is remarkable – it was the largest such contribution in years. This is probably a reasonable time for a step back and a re-think about the overall outlook for inflation.
The Outlook For Inflation
Current Conditions:
The basic pricing conditions in the United States at present are:
- Housing continues to drag on core inflation, but far less than it had been. The y/y change in Shelter is 0.447%, compared to 0.804% for the overall core. The main two components of Shelter are “Rent of Primary Residence” (that is, if you are a renter rather than an owner) and “Owners’ Equivalent Rent of Residences” (that is, what is happening to the consumption value of your home, as distinct from its investment value). These two series are illustrated in the chart below (click to enlarge). While OER is only up 0.282% y/y, Rent of Primary Residence has risen 0.798%: essentially in-line with core. The chart (source: BLS) illustrates that at least the near-term pricing dynamic has changed.
Surprisingly, housing is now contributing to inflation.
- Offsetting this surprising rebound in housing (Shelter is around 40% of core inflation), just about everything else has seen price inflation decelerating. The core-ex-housing number, which was cause for much alarm last year when it spiked near 3%, has plunged to just over 1% (see Chart below, click to enlarge). Apparel (about 4% of core) has plunged from +2% to -1%, Recreation (about 8% of core) is contracting at -0.8%, Education inflation (about 4% of core) has shaved from 5% to 4%, and Communication inflation (about 4%) has gone from 0% to -1%. About the only major core element (other than housing) that hasn’t decelerated very much is Medical Care (8.5% of core), but it also isn’t accelerating.
To my surprise - although anticipated by my models - core ex-housing has regressed to the core number rather than the other way around.
- This is not wholly surprising. Two models of core inflation that I follow have predicted this declining trajectory of core inflation; both models predict a turn higher now. I wouldn’t have expected core inflation to evolve this way – with housing inflation bouncing higher while core-ex-housing provided a drag – but the outcome is approximately in line with my models, which broadly suggested core inflation declining to around 1% until Q3 or Q4 and then remaining at approximately that level through mid-2011. In the event, core inflation has overshot on the downside somewhat, but not egregiously so.
- Commodities will continue to place upward pressure on headline inflation relative to core inflation at least for the near-term, and I think probably for the medium-term as well.
- Because of the general decline in the volatility of price changes, and in the dispersion of price changes (that is, most items are experiencing broadly similar inflation), inflation feels lower than it has for some time previously. With reported CPI around 1.5%, I estimate the “real feel” inflation at around 2.7%, which is nearly as low as it has been at any time in the last forty years except during the financial crisis (You can read more about the “real feel” inflation temperature here). Consumers are perceiving a broadly stable pricing environment, which is probably one reason that the stock market is doing so well and confidence is rising. Gasoline, however, could change all that: the real-feel jumped from 2.4% in November.
Base Forecast:
Aggregated models of core inflation and one which separately forecasts housing inflation both project rising inflation going forward. The average of the models is 1.5% for 2011 core inflation. Interestingly, the model that separates out housing inflation projects 1.8%, but then converges in 2012.
The main influences on the 2011 inflation outlook are the late-2008 spike in money supply, the decline in the dollar over 2009, and the level of core inflation in late 2010. It is important to realize that there are long lags in the pass-through of monetary policy to inflation. Most of the broad currents of 2011 inflation have long since been formed. Policymakers are right now working on policies that will influence 2012 and 2013 inflation, but not much will drastically change the outlook for core inflation in 2011.
Risks to the Outlook:
However, the model is not “fully specified.” That is, not every possible influence on inflation is included in the model – mostly because there are all kinds of influences that I can’t imagine, or because some influences operate with variable lags. For example, my models do not include consumer expectations of inflation. Partly, this is because I don’t think they have a lot to do with inflation, but the Federal Reserve thinks they are very important and if they’re right, my model will miss inflation zigzags that are caused by changes in consumer expectations and not captured in other variables. I also do not model changes in money velocity directly, but this can be as important or even more important than the level of the money stock itself.
The risks to the outlook have been generally to the upside over the last year or so, but seem to be somewhat more balanced now that core ex-housing has decelerated. Of course, when we are near the lows we should expect that inflation feels saggy and that the risks seem more balanced. Here are what I see as the main risks to the outlook.
Downward Risks
- My models do not have a role for the output gap. In my econometric work, I haven’t found that the output gap adds any explanatory power to a model that already includes monetary variables (and I’m not the first person to notice this: Fama in 1982 is the first person I’m aware of to show it). But this may have happened if I looked for a linear influence, while the influence is actually nonlinear – that is, maybe small output gaps don’t matter but large output gaps, about which there is limited experience in the data sets, matter. If this is the case, then the large output gap we currently have will dampen inflation more than I expect it to.
- In my models, leverage plays an important role. High levels of private leverage tends to dampen inflation; moreover, since leverage is related to the velocity of money, stable leverage tends to imply stable money velocity and thus a stable quantity of money. After signs in 2008-09 that an important deleveraging trend was underway, that trend slowed in late 2010 as the Federal Reserve has worked hard to maintain the degree of systemic leverage. I think this is a really bad long-term idea, but in the short-term there’s no question that a collapse of leverage could lead to extremely bad growth outcomes. From an inflation perspective, though, high levels of private debt relative to public debt tends to dampen inflation, so by encouraging leverage the Fed is somewhat inhibiting medium-term inflation. If the deleveraging trend turns back into releveraging, it will tend to truncate some of the more bullish inflation scenarios.
Upward Risks
- Money supply growth has remained tepid although it is accelerating, but the Federal Reserve is clearly trying to increase money growth. As I noted before, normal money supply growth passes into inflation with a long lag but if there was sharp money growth then some of that increase would likely pass through into inflation in a shorter time-frame (quantitatively, my models assumed fixed lags but in reality the lags ought to be distributed…that is, the pass-through happens over time. When the changes are small this is not terribly important but for large changes we could feel some effects sooner). Now, the Fed doesn’t want a sharp increase in transactional money (e.g., M2) even though it is pumping massive amounts of liquidity onto bank balance sheets. As I wrote several months ago (see comment here), we don’t know how or if that money multiplier will return to normal. If it doesn’t happen until the Fed withdraws the M0, that produces one outcome; if it suddenly snaps back then that could cause a massive, uncontrolled rise in M2. That isn’t my null hypothesis, but we really don’t know how this will work (no matter how confident the Chairman is about it) and the direction of the risk is quite clear.
- The Fed, despite protestations to the contrary, has no way to unwind liquidity provisions in a rapid, yet orderly way and likely would be slow to do so even if inflation began to rise. This doesn’t affect 2011 inflation, but it implies that the medium-term trajectory for inflation probably needs to take into account the fact that the Fed will not be leaning against the wind in its normal fashion.
- Majority political preferences all favor higher inflation because it seems to solve some problems (at least at moderate levels of inflation) at a low cost. Therefore, most political decisions are likely to be made without particular concern for the effect on the pricing dynamic.
- The dollar is unlikely to rise sharply (although it may rise), but conceivably could fall sharply if public debt grows too onerous. See Iceland, whose currency fell 50% against the dollar in 2008. There is little doubt that Greece’s and Ireland’s currencies would have been similarly penalized had they not been on the Euro (incidentally, this is also the reason that Iceland will recover long before Greece or Ireland – the latter countries lack one crucial automatic stabilizer). It isn’t likely to happen here, but it could.
- I mentioned above the risk that private leverage reasserts itself, but the flip side of that risk is the risk that public debt simply explodes. What really matters to inflation is actually less the amount of debt but whether that debt is largely private (which is disinflationary) or public (which tends to be inflationary). For a long period of time, the ratio of Federal, State, and Local debt as a proportion of total debt has been fairly stable between 22% and 37%, but the huge deficits of the last couple years combined with whatever private deleveraging there was has pushed that ratio to the upper end of that range (as of Q3. When the Q4 numbers come out it will be shocking if we aren’t at new multi-generational highs of that ratio). Even if deleveraging stops, the increase of the public debt creates ever-larger incentives to inflate it away. This wouldn’t likely manifest as a 2011 risk except through a currency collapse as mentioned above, but it is a very large problem for the medium term. I’ve run charts before but the Financial Times had an excellent article on the debt problem on Thursday. Below (click to enlarge) you can see the key illustration from that article.
Source: Financial Times, Jan 13, 2011
I’ll end there. The bottom line is that the 2011 trajectory will be to roughly a doubling of core inflation with a good chance of headline figures outpacing the rise in core (and perhaps significantly). The less-stable pricing environment will also likely produce a larger jump in perceived inflation. There are both upward and downward risks to this forecast, but the upward risks in my view predominate – especially in the medium- and long-term outlooks.
The bond market is closed today, Monday for the Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday, but on Tuesday the Empire Manufacturing (Consensus: 13.00 from 10.57) report is due out. The next regular installment of this comment will be on Wednesday morning.’
Lindsey Williams: Insider Source Says Food, Gas Prices to Soar The Alex Jones Channel | Williams told Jones the price of crude oil is slated to move to $150-200 per barrel.
Is the Fed Broke? Economic Policy Journal | Former Fed official says Fed would be almost broke if assets were marked to market.
And Now For My Next Magic Trick… NO Inflation! And now for my next trick… I will now show you how the government steals our entire life’s work through the manipulation of the inflation numbers. These statistics/lies, may seem like “little white lies,” but they are at the core of the massive global corruption.
Kappa Beta Phi, Wall Street’s Secret Society, Elects New Members This weekend a tight-lipped group of power brokers elected two new members into Kappa Beta Phi, Wall Street’s secret society founded in 1929, Bloomberg reported.
Swiss Whistleblower to Hand Bank Data to WikiLeaks A former Swiss private banker says he plans to hand over data on hundreds of offshore bank account holders to the WikiLeaks website at a London news conference on Monday.
Strong Indications of Gold & Silver Shortages Since reaching new highs at the end of 2010 gold and silver have been sold off, and the selling has been particularly intense in the last few days. The news on the economy is almost exclusively bullish for the precious metals.
John Hussman: Borrowing Returns Hussman ‘As a reminder of how we approach market valuation, we strongly believe that securities are a claim to a stream of future cash flows that can actually be expected to be delivered to investors over time. As a result, we have little sympathy (and history demonstrates little sympathy) for the popular but misguided practice of applying arbitrary valuation multiples to forward analyst estimates of earnings. Generally, these "forward earnings" estimates fail to normalize for fluctuations in profit margins, return on equity, and other factors that have historically driven short-term earnings temporarily above and below levels that that would have a stable, proportional relationship with the present value of subsequent cash flows. Forward operating earnings estimates are more volatile and more influenced by recent short-term behavior than can properly be used as a basis for valuation, and the resulting earnings "misses" can be particularly extreme at turning points.In the graph below, you'll notice that the prior peak for S&P 500 trailing net earnings has often been a reasonable "rule of thumb" estimate of normalized earnings, but in recent years, temporary spikes in profit margins have periodically driven peak earnings briefly above properly normalized levels. For that reason, as I wrote several years ago, prior peak earnings have become increasingly unreliable. This is particularly true given the actual destruction of book value and revenue in recent years. It's certainly possible to debate the precise level of normalized earnings here, but somewhere in the $70-$75 range, which is where we are at present, is roughly accurate on a trailing net basis. Our estimates also assume continued future long-term growth of slightly more than 6% annually, as reflected by the red channels.
[chart]
Importantly, since our normalized figure tends to run with earnings peaks rather than earnings troughs, the corresponding multiple applicable to these earnings has historically been less than 14 (and was actually closer to 12 in pre-bubble data, which was typically associated with long-term total returns near 10% annually). Since "forward operating" earnings are typically about 20% higher than trailing net, the resulting historical P/E "norms" should also be adjusted accordingly (which analysts rarely do). None of this is to say that the earnings peak during the current economic cycle has to be limited to the present level of normalized earnings - just that more elevated earnings would not be an appropriate basis on which to compute the long-term value of stocks.’
States Warned of $2 Trillion Pensions Shortfall [ This is a very big deal! ] US public pensions face a shortfall of $2,500 billion that will force state and local governments to sell assets and make deep cuts to services, according to the former chairman of New Jersey’s pension fund.
Niall Ferguson On Whether The Financial Crisis Will Lead To America’s Decline And A Glimpse Of The “Post-Pax Americana” Dark Ages Two weeks after we presented Niall Ferguson’s video lecture – “Empires On The Verge Of Chaos” to tremendous reader response and almost 30,000 views, we follow up with another must watch video presentation, this time highlighting the intellectual rigor of Ferguson, David Gergen and Mort Zuckerman.
Food Price Inflation Threatens Global Security A few weeks ago, we highlighted the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO’s) food index, which has risen to new record heights, and wondered aloud if crises were coming. Our question has been answered; it has come… the only question now is whether or not it will be spreading.
Debt Bondage From The Economic Treason of Banks Between now and the end of the year, most likely in the fall, we’ll see major financial and economic problems in Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Belgium, Spain and Italy. Those events will sorely test Germany, France, Holland and Austria.
Nigel Farage on ‘Monster’ Eurozone: Bailout Reinforcing Failure In Brussels, Eurozone finance ministers are meeting to discuss whether to boost the EU bailout fund which was only set up last year.
(1-18-11) Dow 11,838 +51 Nasdaq 2,765 +10 S&P 500 1,295 +1 [CLOSE- OIL $91.38 (-54% for year 2008) (RECORD TRADING HIGH $147.27) GAS $3.00 (reg. gas in LAND OF FRUITS AND NUTS $3.20 REG./ $3.29 MID-GRADE/ $3.39 PREM./ $3.79 DIESEL) / GOLD $1,368 (+24% for year 2009) / SILVER $29.13 (+47% for year 2009) PLATINUM $1,839 (+56% for year 2009) / DOLLAR= .74 EURO, 82 YEN, .62 POUND STERLING, ETC. (How low can you go - LOWER)/ http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/update 10 YR NOTE YIELD 3.36% …..… AP Business Highlights ...Yahoo Market Update... T. Rowe Price Weekly Recap – Stocks / Bonds / Currencies - Domestic / International This Is a Secular Bear Market and The End of Buy and Hold … and Hope MARKET MANIPULATION AND HOW THE LATEST BUBBLE-FRAUD PRE-COMING CRASH IS BEING ACCOMPLISHED 3-11-10 6 Theories On Why the Stock Market Has Rallied 3-9-10 [archived website file] Risks Lurk for ETF Investors The bull market that never was/were beyond wall street b.s. when measured in gold Property Values Projected to Fall 12% in 2010 Jan 31, 2010 The Week Ahead: Risk Is Off the Cliff; Unwind Has Begun Jan 31, 2010 01-13-10 Forecast for 2010 from Seeking Alpha Contributor THE COMING MARKET CRASH / CORRECTION 1-28-10 Maierhofer (01-15-10) 11 Clear Signs Economy Sinking Economic Black Hole 1-22-10: 20 Reasons Why The U.S. Economy Is Dying And Is Simply Not Going To Recover Current Economic / Fiscal Charts Trendsresearch.com forecast for 2009 1-7-10 Crash is coming! ‘WORST ECONOMIC COLLAPSE EVER’ Must Read Economic / Financial Data This Depression is just beginning The coming depression… thecomingdepression.net MUST READ: JEREMY GRANTHAM’S QUARTERLY UPDATE 25 January 2010 (850 on the S&P) by TPC The Next Wave of Collapse is Coming Sooner than you think Sliding Back Into the Great Depression ABSOLUTELY, ABSURDLY, RIDICULOUS! SELL / TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME!
National / World
Russia’s Medvedev backs independent Palestine [ Medvedev is correct and courageous in his position which, though previously shared by ie., clinton, wobama, etc., has been back/soft peddled of late in bending to political / zionist contraindicated pressures. ] Reuters | Russian President Dmitry Medvedev endorsed a Palestinian state on Tuesday.
China Says the End of the Dollar is Near WSJ & AFP | Chinese President Hu Jintao emphasized the need for cooperation with the U.S. in areas from new energy to space ahead of his visit to Washington this week, but he called the present U.S. dollar-dominated currency system a “product of the past” and highlighted moves to turn the yuan into a global currency.
Confirmed: Stuxnet Was False Flag Launched by Israel and U.S. Kurt Nimmo | New York Times report confirms what we knew all along.
Israel used Stuxnet against Iran with US help AsiaNetIndia | US and Israeli intelligence services collaborated to develop a destructive computer worm to sabotage Iran.
Confirmed: Stuxnet Was False Flag Launched by Israel and U.S. On Saturday, the Gray Lady of establishment propaganda, the New York Times, passively admitted that the Stuxnet virus responsible for crippling Iran’s nuclear energy program was engineered by Israeli and U.S. intelligence.
In Tucson, thousands attend gun show one week after mass shooting “The events at the Safeway store were tragic and unprecedented, but they weren’t about lawful gun ownership,” said Bob Templeton, the president of Crossroads. “It was about a mentally ill person who gained access to a firearm he shouldn’t have.”
MSNBC Host: ObamaCare Opponents a Bunch of ‘Crackers’ ‘Hardball’ host lets one slip in describing outspoken opponents of the president.
TSA Now Forcing Opt-Outs To Walk Through Body Scanners Paul Joseph Watson | Agency claims machines are “switched off,” traveler says policy is part of psychological ploy to coerce subservience from other passengers.
TSA Continues to Deny Scanners Store Images Jason Douglass | TSA asserts their body scanners cannot store images even though technical specifications suggest otherwise.
On Gun Control and Violence Ron Paul | Our constitutional right to bear arms does not create a society without risks of violent crime, and neither would the strictest gun control laws.
NASA’s Hansen: Impose Chinese Totalitarianism on America Kurt Nimmo | According to Hansen, only brutal authoritarianism is capable of forcing the climate change agenda on the American people.
Stuxnet: Another “Conspiracy Theory” Turns Out To Be True Paul Joseph Watson | Debunkers attacked claim that US and Israel were behind worm attack – now it’s admitted
Sudan Next To Succumb To Bernanke’s Inflationary Experiment, As Country Threatens Revolution Over Surging Food Prices About a month ago, some took offense at our characterization of the Chair-hewlettpackard-man as a “bearded mutant-cum-supreme genocidal overlord” after we predicted to the dot that his monetary policy would eventually lead to a global, well, genocide, presumably first in the developing world.
Schwarzenegger: ‘I Was Addicted To Power’ [ And steroids too, at one time, taking its toll on the former male model / actor / pretender’s brain. Fortunately, it’s cold turkey for the turkey terminator. What an abject failure in office he turned out to be. ] Arnold Schwarzenegger is pulling no punches in his first formal interview since leaving office, claiming that the highest office in the state left him “addicted” to its power.
NASA’s Hansen: Impose Chinese Totalitarianism on America Totalitarian thugs love China. They love its authoritarian government and absolute political power. One such thug is the climatologist James Hansen of NASA. Hansen thinks America needs to adapt Chinese authoritarianism in order to force climate change down the throats of the American people.
Global food chain stretched to the limit Strained by rising demand and battered by bad weather, the global food supply chain is stretched to the limit, sending prices soaring and sparking concerns about a repeat of food riots last seen three years ago.
Bombshell: How Fluoride Is Killing You and Your Children A significant milestone in the fight against fluoride emerged quietly and without major notice from the mainstream news last week. After decades of ignoring the research about the dangers and hailing water fluoridation as one of the 10 greatest health achievements of the 20th Century (CDC), the government is calling for a reduction in the amount of fluoride it adds to public water supplies, citing its negative effect on teeth (dental fluorosis). For the first time since 1962, the standard for fluoride will be lowered from 1.2 to 0.7 milligrams per liter.
Peter Schiff: Washington a parasite to economy US foreclosures hit record highs in 2010, but that may not be the worst of it. 2011 may be even worse. Meanwhile, JP Morgan Chase exceeded market expectations, announcing a 47% rise in quarterly profits and released details on a $28.1 billion pay and bonus pool. Peter Schiff, the President of Euro Pacific Capital said Washington and Wall Street are becoming one force and are sucking the underlying American dry like a parasite.
U.S. Bills States $1.3 Billion in Interest Amid Tight Budgets As if states did not have enough on their plates getting their shaky finances in order, a new bill is coming due — from the federal government, which will charge them $1.3 billion in interest this fall on the billions they have borrowed from Washington to pay unemployment benefits during the downturn.
Biden Urges Pakistan To Intensify Fight Against Terrorism [ Careful what you say, ‘lobomy joe’ (biden-those uncontrollable outbursts), because they may just figure out who in fact the real terrorists are; viz., pervasively corrupt war criminal nation america and friends (ie., illegal nuke-toting, war crimes nation israel, nato allies, et als). ]RTT | United States Vice-President Joseph Biden has urged the Pakistani government to intensify the fight against terror outfits, especially al-Qaeda, which he said continued to plot attacks against America from remote areas of the country.
Fire to the Fuel: More NATO tankers torched in latest Pakistan attack A driver was wounded in Pakistan’s south-west on Saturday when gunmen set ablaze 14 tankers carrying fuel for US and NATO troops in Afghanistan, officials said. The latest attack occurred in the Dera Murad Jamali area in Baluchistan province. Islamist militants and criminals in Pakistan frequently attack trucks carrying supplies for US and NATO troops. The attacks in Pakistan have led the US to rely more on other supply routes, including through countries north of Afghanistan.
Chuck Baldwin: Restoring The Republic PrisonPlanet.tv | Chuck Baldwin, former Constitution Party candidate for President, breaks down the left-right paradigm and how the globalists are in control of both major political parties.
Rockefeller Owned: Chileans tell him he will fail You Tube | An activist confronts David Rockefeller during his vacation to Chile, alongside with Chilean media magnate Agustin Edwards Eastman, head of El Mercurio, outside the airport.
Lindsey Williams: Insider Source Says Food, Gas Prices to Soar The Alex Jones Channel | Williams told Jones the price of crude oil is slated to move to $150-200 per barrel.
Tunisian Wikileaks Putsch: CIA Touts Mediterranean Tsunami of Coups Webster Tarpley | Arab governments must immediately expel all officials of the International Monetary Fund, World Bank, and their subset of lending institutions.
Stuxnet Worm Used Against Iran Was Tested in Israel The Dimona complex in the Negev desert is famous as the heavily guarded heart of Israel’s never-acknowledged nuclear arms program, where neat rows of factories make atomic fuel for the arsenal.
The First WikiLeaks Revolution? Tunisians didn’t need any more reasons to protest when they took to the streets these past weeks — food prices were rising, corruption was rampant, and unemployment was staggering. But we might also count Tunisia as the first time that WikiLeaks pushed people over the brink.
Global warming researchers says eating bugs better for environment than eating meat Ethan A. Huff | Researchers say that insects produce far less greenhouse gases than cattle and pigs do, and would thus be a viable alternative to eating meat.
The Witch Hunt Begins: Citizen Spy Network Targets Political Speech and Gun Owners Infowars.com | Tyrannical campaigns have been initiated and designed to break up communities and turn citizens against one another.
The Witch Hunt Begins: Citizen Spy Network Targets Political Speech and Gun Owners Infowars.com | Tyrannical campaigns have been initiated and designed to break up communities and turn citizens against one another.
Rachael Maddow’s Faulty Gun-Control Argument A.J. MacDonald, Jr. | I believe that an armed citizenry prevents tyranny, which is exactly why the Founders gave us the Second Amendment to the US Constitution.
Video: The ‘Opportunity of Crisis’: Nixon blamed the left for ’72 shooting of George Wallace Aaron Dykes | Recordings show that President Nixon attempted to plant evidence that would frame assassin Arthur Bremer as a Leftist McGovern/Kennedy supporter before Bremer’s background or affiliation was known, just as in Tuscon.
Reactionary Gun Laws Proposed in South Carolina After Arizona Shooting Brandon Turbeville | Those who support the Constitution and ending the private Federal Reserve are considered fringe fanatics in the eyes of the mainstream media.
Rachel Maddow: Enemy of Liberty and the Bill of Rights Kurt Nimmo | The limousine liberal Rachel Maddow used her MSNBC show Thursday to call for a renewed gun-grabbing effort by the government.
Bombshell: Government Admits Fluoride Hurting Children A significant milestone in the fight against fluoride emerged quietly and without major notice from the mainstream news last week. After decades of ignoring the research about the dangers and hailing water fluoridation as one of the 10 greatest health achievements of the 20th Century (CDC), the government is calling for a reduction in the amount of fluoride it adds to public water supplies, citing its negative effect on teeth (dental fluorosis). For the first time since 1962, the standard for fluoride will be lowered from 1.2 to 0.7 milligrams per liter.
Study reveals top ten violence-inducing prescription drugs The Institute for Safe Medication Practices (ISMP) recently published a study in the journal PLoS One highlighting the worst prescription drug offenders that cause patients to become violent. Among the top-ten most dangerous are the antidepressants Pristiq (desvenlafaxine), Paxil (paroxetine) and Prozac (fluoxetine).
‘Bush, Reagan let drugs flow free to US from Nicaragua’ – ex-dealer “Freeway” Ricky Ross, a former US street legend, who as a drug dealer was once responsible for flooding California’s streets with most of its hard drugs, spoke with RT about his activism against drugs. After making up to US$2 million a day and then spending 20 years in prison, Ross started from scratch and is now trying to make a difference by keeping kids from following into his footsteps.
Israel Tests on Worm Called Crucial in Iran Nuclear Delay New York Times - The Dimona complex in the Negev desert is famous as the heavily guarded heart of Israel's never-acknowledged nuclear arms program, where neat rows of factories make atomic fuel for the arsenal. RT Video: Atomic Mystery Tour: Russia says no to Iran's nuke site invite 
RT Iran touts tour of nuclear sites, despite absence of key critics CNN
Drudgereport: Currency system 'product of the past'...
China president prepares for state visit to Washington...
Human-rights protesters at the ready...
HU QUESTIONS FUTURE OF DOLLAR
RISING DRAGON: China on equal footing with USA as Hu visits Washington...
Taiwanese mock meeting w/ video cartoon...
Missiles off target in major Taiwan drill...
China 'got stealth tech from Russia'...
GE to sign slew of China deals...
'Experience China' takes over NYC's Times Square...
PEW: 65% see China as an 'adversary' or 'serious problem'...
STUXNET WORM USED AGAINST IRAN WAS TESTED IN ISRAEL...
Three U.S. Soldiers Killed in Iraq...
GALLUP: U.S. Satisfaction Remains Near 12-Month Low...
CBS POLL: 77% say cut spending; only 9% say raise taxes...
States Warned of $2.5 Trillion Pensions Shortfall...
Schwarzenegger: I Was 'Addicted' To Being Governor...
Comprehensive List of Tax Hikes in Obamacare...
Republican senator sees bipartisan agreement on debt ceiling … (no surprise here; after all, they have to get paid…for what?…more and more people are asking the question - all three branches including the toy soldiers for perpetual war and illegal drugs / arms ops) ...
Obama Gives Communist Leader Lavish State Dinner...
China lending hits new heights; Funding to poor states (that includes defacto bankrupt america) tops World Bank...
RISE OF RED DRAGON: CHINA SHAPES WORLD
Jobs Takes Medical Leave...
House panel wants Homeland Security documents...
GALLUP: U.S. Satisfaction Remains Near 12-Month Low...
Ahmadinejad, Medvedev agree to boost ties...
Moscow reaffirms Soviet recognition of Palestine...
Camden, NJ braces for deep police, fire cuts...
Go to following pages for above links:
http://www.albertpeia.com/currentopics2ndqtr10108.htm
http://www.albertpeia.com
http://www.albertpeia.com/alresume.htm
http://www.albertpeia.com/wallstreetlunacy2ndqtr10108.htm
You may post a comment on my blog on any topic: http://alpeiablog.blogspot.com
Afghan drug war stumbles (Washington Post) [ Stumbles? As in ‘accidently on purpose’? Or, alternatively, among the few american wars that never was. After all, the Taliban had all but eradicated the heroin trade. Moreover, post-invasion, bush’s order to destroy the poppy fields was countermanded by the pentagon and of course, not by chance, the heroin production / trade in Afghanistan has been reinvigorated, resurgent, and never been greater (the substantial raison d’etre for u.s. war / occupation there – that ‘benefiting the few’ thang – as in Vietnam where body bags of dead u.s. soldiers were used by u.s. ops, cia, etc., to smuggle the heroin out). The tenor of this article is an insult to intelligence everywhere. ]
Rendition: Where the War on Terror Meets the War on Drugs Patrick Henningsen | It’s time to ditch the policies we have come to tolerate for decades before they consume what is left of our moral core. I’ve experienced the corrupt inter-relationship of the government (all 3 corrupt branches) and the illegal drug trade / obstruction of justice / bribery first hand, particularly the courts / u.s. attorneys offices (ie., alito – now u.s. supreme court justice – quid pro quo for his complicity / cover-up), feds; see immediately after article excerpt for links / summary.
…“Evidence points to aircraft – familiarly known as “torture taxis” – used by the CIA to move captives seized in its kidnapping or “extraordinary rendition” operations through Gatwick and other airports in the EU being simultaneously used for drug distribution in the Western hemisphere. A Gulfstream II jet aircraft N9875A identified by the British Government and the European Parliament as being involved in this traffic crashed in Mexico…” In 2004, another torture taxi crashed in a field in Nicaragua with a ton of cocaine aboard… Mexican soldiers found ..132 bags containing 3.3 metric tons of cocaine. The origination of the Gulfstream’s flight is unknown but it was destined for Cancun when it crash landed. Again, here is the important point: that same Gulf Stream II was one of the very same planes chartered to the CIA for the rendition of suspected terrorists prisoners. Gulf Stream II crashed in Mexico with 3 tons of cocaine on board ..it should not be surprising that this illegal practice of rendition has in some part, been used as a well-run smokescreen for another borderless illegal operation- an extremely lucrative international transfer and delivery of cash and narcotics.,,These flights are not subject to regular customs checks, inspections or normal regulations as they move seamlessly between destinations in the US, Britain, Europe, Middle East, Central Asia, Cuba and possibly through US bases in Turkey, Greece and Morocco…
Corrupt u.s. courts / judges: Their lifetime plush appointments should be abolished, which corrupt entities are unheard of in productive societies as China, Japan, etc.. Time to abolish these drags on society and eliminate their lifetime stipends and costly bureaucracies. Rules of law mean nothing to these typically corrupt americans. Most, including sam alito of the u.s. supreme court, concerning drug money laundering and obstruction of justice in the 3rd circuit ( also maryanne trump barry who covered-up drug money laundering through her brother’s casinos in a civil RICO case) should have gone to or belong in jail. Contrary to popular belief, they do it for the money, personal money, big, cash, untraceable money. The fog of war is great for such things (360 tons $100 bills flown into Iraq and missing, etc.).
[ http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm ]. america’s just a fraudulent and failed defacto bankrupt nation.
NSA beats warrantless wiretap rap A Federal judge has dismissed a complaint against the National Security Agency’s (NSA)
Corrupt u.s. courts / judges: Their lifetime plush appointments should be abolished, which corrupt entities are unheard of in productive societies as China, Japan, etc.. Time to abolish these drags on society and eliminate their lifetime stipends and corrupt costly bureaucracies.
There must be such things as parallel universes (I don’t really believe that, because there isn’t) or how else do you explain the disconnect between reality, current and prospective, and the wet dreams posited to keep the war funding / corporate welfare programs alive in collectively what has already become a trillion dollar boondoggle (not counting prospective medical costs, etc.) and promises to go much higher. Even israel apologist Cohen of The Washington Post alludes to the Vietnam analogy. However, even if there were real goals beyond the poppy / heroin trade which the Taliban had all but eradicated (there isn’t); even if america wasn’t defacto bankrupt (america is); even if america wasn’t killing innocent civilians in large numbers (war criminal nation america is); even if america’s allies haven’t similarly helped to bankrupt themselves by way of this war (they have); even if I hadn’t told you so (I did) ….. this war still was, is, and remains a very bad idea!
Afghan war overtakes Vietnam to become the longest conflict in U.S. history Mail Online | The war entered its 104th month yesterday, with 30,000 American troops being deployed in the first half of this year alone.
Consumer spending rises, but less than expected (Washington Post) [ Almost all the economic news has been worse than expected yet the stock market has continued its rationality/gravity-defying ascent. That ominous disconnect between wall street and main street among other current and prospective victims of the current bubble / fraud which the frauds on wall street and insiders commission, churn-and-earn at lightning computerized high-frequency trading speed and ultimately sell into. It’s the now familiar story on fraudulent but apparently immune from prosecution wall street. Moreover, all that pomo / fiat paper currency printing has just begun to take its toll (see infra)] . Giving retailers the gift of sales growth for the sixth consecutive month, consumers flex their spending power in December. Nations seek to keep lid on food prices (Washington Post) [ It’s not just food prices and one thing is certain; there’s much worse to come and resisting the insurmountable record deficit ridden, pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt american propaganda is a first step to understanding how bad, as in unprecedented. Drudgereport: $100 OIL: DEAL WITH IT
Rising Gasoline Prices Put Consumers in Sour Mood...
UK WARNING: OIL PRICES MAY KILL ECONOMY AND THE COALITION... [ No! It’s the debased, over-printed u.s. et als fiat currency which is killing the economies though masked by the fraudulent wall street feel good, for them, bubble and which lends credence to the calls for a new world reserve currency, ie., juan, etc. ]
EYES ON OPEC...[ Beyond the propaganda, the eyes should be on the complicit, fraudulent fed and the ‘printing presses’ of and for the debased currencies. This is not OPEC’s doing but rather an economic axiom which requires that a precious commodity increase in price when the debased paper currency in which it is measured decreases in value (as now with over-printing, over-creating for ultimately the exclusive benefit of the frauds on wall street). ]
Feds threaten to sue states over union laws … [ but hands off the frauds on wall street they say ] ...
Comprehensive List of Tax Hikes in Obamacare...
FT: What chance a US default? ] Faced with rising international food prices, governments around the world are cooking up measures to protect domestic supplies and keep prices from rising at home. Related News
The Teflon Market Is Here [ Just ask the ‘Teflon Don’ … oh, right … he’s dead …The pervasively corrupt frauds on wall street, the fed, and the u.s. government are desperate to evade their unequivocal responsibility and overdue punishment (prosecution, fines, jail, disgorgement) for the last and ongoing (toxic, worthless paper assets now marked to anything) fraud diverting attention from their own culpability for the prior bubble/crash and on-going financial / economic crisis, america’s worst economy and prospects in america’s relatively short history with this contrived bubble exceeding that precursor to the last crash; “this has never happened before, in 82 years of history”, and a crash is what’s a-coming. This is nothing short of pathetic desperation that typifies the last gasp of the dead and dying, figuratively of course. ] Roche ‘Calling this a “bullish” run might be a bit of an understatement. There has been an unprecedented bid under the market since August 2010. The Bernanke Put is well entrenched in everyone’s minds. This week ’s spike in jobless claims was not enough to cause risk appetite to temper as it likely just reminds investors that rising claims are what led to QE2 to begin with. Indeed, this is a Federal Reserve that will not allow equity prices to falter to any substantial degree. Nominal wealth creation has become the rally cry of a group of economic thinkers who truly have no idea how to create sustainable economic growth.
The stats behind this bull market are even more remarkable than the rally itself appears. As I noted in December the market literally could not decline. But the data since then shows an even more untouchable market (via ZeroHedge):
“As a point of reference the S&P has been above the 10 day average for 30 days straight, and above the 50 day average for 92 days straight. What is remarkable are some statistical findings that pertain to the average’s movement with respect to the SMAs. Sentiment Trader points out that while as part of the recent surge in the S&P, the market has gone for “92 days without closing below its 50-day average, which has been matched only 17 other times since 1928.” Where it gets scary, is that as pointed out, during this time the market has not closed below the 10 DMA once during the past 30 days. And as Sentiment Trader notes, “this has never happened before, in 82 years of history.”
Not much else needs to be said. The teflon market is here.
Update: Some additional thoughts from Jeff Saut:
Herb Stein once remarked, “If something can’t go on forever, it won’t!” And, the current “buying stampede” is now 90 sessions long, making it the longest one ever recorded in my notes of more than 40 years. Combine that with many other “finger to wallet” indicators suggesting caution and I am currently just sitting. Indeed, sometimes me sits and thinks and sometimes me just sits. As the astute Lowry’s organization opines, “Our last short term sell-signal for aggressive traders was triggered on December 30th, when the 14-day Stochastic indicator dropped from overbought levels and crossed below its moving average. A conventional short term sell-signal, for culling selective stocks [from portfolios], was registered as of today’s market close (last Friday), when our Short Term Index dropped a total of more than 6 points from its recent high of 104.” ‘
Lawmakers consider slowing Virginia foreclosure process (Washington Post) [ Yeah, and you really have to take them seriously when they say that because in alphabet soup kitchen (ie., cia, nsa, dod, doj, etc.) country (which I’ve directly experienced along with the corrupt process in at least 4 other states, see infra, the law is as malleable and arbitrarily enforced or not as they want it to be as in any defacto bankrupt banana republic as pervasively corrupt america certainly is today …Previous: Judges rule without title, lenders can't foreclose (Washington Post) [ Rules of law? I didn’t think they cared. That’s certainly the direct experience I’ve had with the pervasively corrupt american legal / judicial system (along with the other two branches of the u.s. government and defact bankrupt america generally). Court decisions could call into doubt the ownership of mortgages, raising urgent challenges for both the real estate market, wider financial system. Connecticut, California join probe of Ally (Washington Post) [I’d be much more impressed if they initiated a probe of more readily discernible criminal offenses in violation of the RICO Act (Other newark / new jersey and new york, n.y. metro, viz., ie., connecticut, and of course, d.c., d.c. metro, viz., ie., virginia experience … corrupt federal judges as maryanne trump barry, sam alito, shiff, matz (california), hall, underhill, dorsey, etc.. Defacto bankrupt america’s so-called system is pervasively corrupt and broken (AP) Abolish the corrupt, costly, economically wasteful lifetime extravagantly appointed federal courts - see RICO case http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm ) ] http://albertpeia.com Frauds/Liars (sic-lawyers)Covering Up for Other Frauds/Liars (sic-lawyers). In Productive Societies as China, Japan, etc., Fraudulent Liars (sic-lawyers) and the Fraudulent u.s. System They're a Part of Are Unheard Of/Non-existent. List of Files Regarding Filed Attorney Grievance Against Fraud coan et als Or Here For A Clearer View Of Filed Grievance Complaint, Response, Exhibits, and Related RICO Filings Note the Committee of Frauds/Liars (sic-lawyers). Included are DOJ Rep., State Court Rep., State Atty. General Office Rep., and even a Vegetable Garden yale law prof who probably never practiced law in his life. How Pathetic! http://albertpeia.com/fbiofficela91310 ] Justice: FBI improperly opened probes (Washington Post) [ I just hope they’re as zealous (in probing readily discernible crime) with regard to my RICO matters and the corruption in the (judicial / legal) process since, in the final analysis, it will have been the corruption within that will have brought the nation down irrevocably and totally.] Homeowners, who now face one of the fastest foreclosure processes in the country, would be given more time to defend themselves under one proposal.
Don't Fight the Fed: Dave's Daily ‘To be sure, companies like Apple and Intel are doing well overall. But some companies are doing well due to ongoing Fed financial support like banks and some auto companies. QE policies are designed to prop stock markets higher, and with volume light, the job is made easier. Therefore, when worse than expected economic data is released (Jobless Claims, Consumer Confidence, Retail Sales, CPI, Chinese tightening and etc) investors toss that information aside aided by more POMO. More maddening to more thoughtful people are the lies being bandied about particularly with inflation data. Food and energy prices are much higher and eliminating them from the data due to imagined "volatility" is beyond mere spin. When I was a young college student, my statistics professor gave to each student a book: "How to Lie with Statistics." I think it must remain required reading for BLS, Treasury and Fed officials among others. Let's remember, the government has a huge entitlement liability geared to inflation statistics. They're conflicted…The Fed is just repeating what's worked for them before--another bubble…’
Bullish Sentiment Dips, But Optimism Is Still High Rotblut ‘Bullish sentiment declined 3.5 percentage points to 52.3% in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Despite the dip, optimism that stock prices will rise stayed above its historical average of 39% for the 19th consecutive week, matching the streak set in the second half of 2004.
Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will be essentially flat over the next six months, slipped 1.6 percentage points to 24.2%. This was the 23rd consecutive week that neutral sentiment has been below its historical average of 31%.
Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, rose 5.2 percentage points to 23.4%. Though this is a four-week high for pessimism, pessimism is below its historical average for the 16th time in the past 18 weeks.
Though there was a decline this week, bullish sentiment remains in the range that has largely held over the past six weeks. This has resulted in the eight-week moving average reaching 53%, its highest level since January 6, 2005. High levels of bullish sentiment have been correlated with market reversals, but other indicators should be considered before making a market forecast.
As noted above, bullish sentiment has been above its historical average for 19 consecutive weeks, matching the streak set during the period of August 26 through December 30, 2004. A record streak of 42 consecutive weeks occurred during the period of May 29, 2003, through March 11, 2004, when investors realized that a recovery from the decade’s first bear market was fully underway.
This week’s special question asked AAII members about their expectations for fourth-quarter earnings. Most respondents expected profits to be good with companies continuing to experience growth. There was not a consensus on how much profits would be up, however.
{ Special Offer: Gary Shilling called the housing crash in 2006 and his readers have made a killing in bonds. Click here for his latest advice…in Gary Shilling’s Insight newsletter. [ Gary Shilling Says Housing Will Get Much Worse - Intelligent ...
After seeing the price of gold continue to climb and reading all the ...http://blogs.forbes.com/.../gary-shilling-says-housing-will-get-much-worse Gary Shilling Sees `Significant' Stock Selloff Within 12 Months ...Nov 12, 2010 ... Gary Shilling , who predicted the U.S. housing collapse, says the stock market is overvalued and foresees a “significant” selloff within a ... ] Early in 2008, in his monthly Insight report, Shilling laid out 13 investment themes for the year ahead that proved to be 100% dead-on accurate--a perfect 13-for-13--and they proved extremely profitable for his Insight readers.
Here's a scorecard to show how Shilling's forecast from 2008 has panned out:
1. Sell or sell short homebuilder stocks and bonds.
2. If you plan to sell your home, second home or investment home anytime soon, do so yesterday.
3. Sell short subprime mortgages.
4. Sell or sell short housing-related stocks.
5. Sell or sell short consumer discretionary spending companies.
6. Sell low-grade fixed-income securities.
7. Sell or avoid most commercial real estate.
8. Short commodities.
9. Sell or sell short emerging market equities.
10. Sell emerging country bonds.
11. Buy the dollar before long.
12. Sell or sell short U.S. stocks in general.
13. Buy long Treasury bonds.
Gary Shilling released 12 New Strategies for thriving during the market melt-down. We call it his "Bear Market Tool Kit." You can access his recommendations when you subscribe to Gary Shilling's Insight. And by subscribing now, you’ll ensure that you will receive Gary Shilling’s investment strategies for 2011 and beyond.
Are the brokers and television analysts who constantly parrot the "conventional wisdom" paying serious attention to any of Shilling's predictions? Probably not. Gary looks for hidden investment opportunities, which often means going against the conventional wisdom. And when you learn more about Gary's credentials and his track record, you will realize that everyone who doesn't pay attention to what he says might end up with some serious egg on their faces.
Gary has twice been ranked as Wall Street’s top economist by polls in Institutional Investor; he was also named the country’s number one Commodity Trader Advisor by Futures magazine. And in 2003, MoneySense ranked him as the 3rd best stock market forecaster, right behind Warren Buffett. He also challenges the consensus in appearances on CNBC.
Gary also has a long-standing reputation for independent thought...and for getting it right. Back in 1969, he correctly predicted, to the surprise of many, the 1969-1970 recession. In the early 1970s, he stood alone in predicting the severe 1973-1975 global recession. In the late 1970s, when double-digit inflation was raging, Gary was nearly unique in forecasting dwindling inflation rates as well as the wonderful stock and bond markets that lay ahead.
Gary has been running away from the herd for years, and he’s been nearly alone in making some early, and accurate, calls:
•In early 1999, in the midst of the Internet stock boom, Gary Shilling was nearly alone in warning of a collapse in tech stocks. In January 2000, with stocks still strong, Gary Shilling said a major bear market was at hand. In November 2000, he foresaw total declines of 30%-40% in the Dow Industrials, 40%-50% in the S&P 500 and 70%-80% in the Nasdaq—right on target with the overall decline of 35% in the Dow, 49% in the S&P and 78% in the Nasdaq.
•While bulls were talking up housing, Gary was nearly alone for years in warning of a collapse well before the rest of the crowd saw any signs that something was amiss.
Wouldn’t you have benefited from such insights? Gary Shilling's Insight readers were not only well-prepared when the bad news began to unfold, but were also equipped to make money while others suffered.
}
Rotblut cont’d
Here is a sampling of the responses:
- “I expect fourth-quarter earnings will be positive and companies will slowly begin to add employees.”
- “Streamlined corporate cost structures combined with modest economic growth should equal strong fourth quarter earnings.”
- “Good, not as good overall as the third quarter of 2010. I think everything to increase productivity has been done and now it is a wait-for-demand situation.”
- “Surprises to both the upside and the downside. I will be looking forward to hearing the guidance, as I still don’t see the jobs in this recovery.”
- Bullish: 52.3%, down 3.5 percentage points
- Neutral: 24.2%, down 1.6 percentage points
- Bearish: 23.4%, up 5.2 percentage points
Historical Averages:
- Bullish: 39%
- Neutral: 31%
- Bearish: 30%
The AAII Sentiment Survey has been conducted weekly since July 1987 and asks AAII members whether they think stock prices will rise, remain essentially flat, or fall over the next six months. The survey period runs from Thursday (12:01 a.m.) to Wednesday (11:59 p.m.). The survey and its results are available online.’
Just One Bank Failure Today There was only one closure today which brings the total number of bank failures for 2011 to three. Oglethorpe Bank in Brunswick, Georgia was closed by ...
Chinese Yuan; A new world reserve currency? Economic Assassin | Twelve days into the New Year (2011) and China has already set the wheels in motion to use their most powerful weapon, the Yuan, in order to combat inflation.
Rising gasoline prices sour U.S. consumer mood Reuters | Rising gasoline prices beat down U.S. consumer sentiment in early January.
Dimon, Gorman, Moynihan pitch for AIG share sale Reuters | Some of the United States’ top bankers descended on a law firm in midtown Manhattan on Thursday to make a pitch for managing what could be one of the largest share sales in history.
Jobless claims jump, wholesale food costs surge Reuters | U.S. jobless claims jumped to their highest level since October last week while food and energy costs lifted producer prices in December.
Rising gasoline prices sour U.S. consumer mood Rising gasoline prices beat down U.S. consumer sentiment in early January, overshadowing an improved job outlook and passage of temporary federal tax breaks, a survey released on Friday showed.
Silver: From $30/oz to over $500 by 2020 And from $500 to $5000 by 2030!
Who, How and Why: $140 Oil and $5 Gas According to a loosely-organized apocalyptic Christian movement, May 21, 2011 will be the “end of days.” On or about that same date, the price of oil in the United States will begin to climb to $4 a gallon, according to two savants of the oil industry.
20 Shocking New Economic Records That Were Set In 2010 2010 was quite a year, wasn’t it? 2010 will be remembered for a lot of things, but for those living in the United States, one of the main things that last year will be remembered for is economic decline…The Economic Collapse Jan 14, 2011 ‘2010 was quite a year, wasn’t it? 2010 will be remembered for a lot of things, but for those living in the United States, one of the main things that last year will be remembered for is economic decline. The number of foreclosure filings set a new record, the number of home repossessions set a new record, the number of bankruptcies went up again, the number of Americans that became so discouraged that they simply quit looking for work reached a new all-time high and the number of Americans on food stamps kept setting a brand new record every single month. Meanwhile, U.S. government debt reached record highs, state government debt reached record highs and local government debt reached record highs. What a mess! In fact, even many of the “good” economic records that were set during 2010 were indications of underlying economic weakness. For example, the price of gold set an all-time record during 2010, but one of the primary reasons for the increase in the price of gold was that the U.S. dollar was rapidly losing value. Most Americans had been hoping that 2010 would be the beginning of better times, but unfortunately economic conditions just kept getting worse.
So will things improve in 2011? That would be nice, but at this point there are not a whole lot of reasons to be optimistic about the economy. The truth is that we are trapped in a period of long-term economic decline and we are now paying the price for decades of horrible decisions.
Amazingly, many of our politicians and many in the mainstream media have declared that “the recession is over” and that the U.S. economy is steadily improving now.
Well, if anyone tries to tell you that the economy got better in 2010, just show them the statistics below. That should shut them up for a while.
The following are 20 new economic records that were set during 2010….
#1 An all-time record of 2.87 million U.S. households received a foreclosure filing in 2010.
#2 The number of homes that were actually repossessed reached the 1 million mark for the first time ever during 2010.
#3 The price of gold moved above $1400 an ounce for the first time ever during 2010.
#4 According to the American Bankruptcy Institute, approximately 1.53 million consumer bankruptcy petitions were filed in 2010, which was up 9 percent from 1.41 million in 2009. This was the highest number of personal bankruptcies we have seen since the U.S. Congress substantially tightened U.S. bankruptcy law several years ago.
#5 At one point during 2010, the average time needed to find a job in the United States had risen to an all-time record of 35.2 weeks.
#6 Back in 1970, 25 percent of all jobs in the United States were manufacturing jobs. Today, only 9 percent of the jobs in the United States are manufacturing jobs, which is believed to be a new record low.
#7 The number of Americans working part-time jobs “for economic reasons” was the highest it has been in at least five decades during 2010.
#8 The number of American workers that are so discouraged that they have given up searching for work reached an all-time high near the end of 2010.
#9 Government spending continues to set new all-time records. In fact, at the moment the U.S. government is spending approximately 6.85 million dollars every single minute.
#10 The number of Americans on food stamps surpassed 43 million by the end of 2010. This was a new all-time record, and government officials fully expect the number of Americans enrolled in the program to continue to increase throughout 2011.
#11 The number of Americans on Medicaid surpassed 50 million for the first time ever in 2010.
#12 The U.S. Census Bureau originally announced that 43.6 million Americans are now living in poverty and according to them that was the highest number of Americans living in poverty that they had ever recorded in 51 years of record-keeping. But now the Census Bureau says that they miscalculated and that the real number of poor Americans is actually 47.8 million.
#13 According to the FDIC, 157 banks failed during 2010. That was the highest number of bank failures that the United States has experienced in any single year during the past decade.
#14 The Federal Reserve brought in a record $80.9 billion in profits during 2010. They returned $78.4 billion of that to the U.S. Treasury, but the real story is that thanks to the Federal Reserve’s continual debasement of our currency, the U.S. dollar was worth less in 2010 than it ever had been before.
#15 It is projected that the major financial firms on Wall Street will pay out an all-time record of $144 billion in compensation for 2010.
#16 Americans now owe more than $881 billion on student loans, which is a new all-time record.
#17 In July, sales of new homes in the United States declined to the lowest level ever recorded.
#18 According to Zillow, U.S. housing prices have now declined a whopping 26 percent since their peak in June 2006. Amazingly, this is even farther than house prices fell during the Great Depression. From 1928 to 1933, U.S. housing prices only fell 25.9 percent.
#19 State and local government debt reached at an all-time record of 22 percent of U.S. GDP during 2010.
#20 The U.S. national debt has surpassed the 14 trillion dollar mark for the first time ever and it is being projected that it will soar well past 15 trillion during 2011.
There are some people that have a hard time really grasping what statistics actually mean. For people like that, often pictures and charts are much more effective. Well, that is one reason I like to include pictures and graphs in many of my articles, and below I have posted my favorite chart from this past year. It shows the growth of the U.S. national debt from 1940 until today. I honestly don’t know how anyone can look at this chart and still be convinced that our nation is not headed for a complete financial meltdown….[chart]
National / World
Bombshell: Government Admits Fluoride Hurting Children Alex Jones & Aaron Dykes | A significant milestone in the fight against fluoride emerged without notice last week, as the government called for a reduction in the amount of fluoride added to public drinking water.
‘Witch Hunt FBI’ tops google trends as gov’t critics targeted Infowars | ‘Witch Hunt FBI’ has reached #1 on Google Trends, as the feds have actually begun visiting the homes of dissenters who criticize members of Congress in the wake of the Tuscon tragedy.
The Witch Hunt Begins: Citizen Spy Network Targets Political Speech and Gun Owners Infowars.com | Tyrannical campaigns have been initiated and designed to break up communities and turn citizens against one another.
Rachel Maddow: Enemy of Liberty and the Bill of Rights Kurt Nimmo | The limousine liberal Rachel Maddow used her MSNBC show Thursday to call for a renewed gun-grabbing effort by the government.
Chinese Company Sinomach Poised To Takeover Boise Jason Douglass | In an effort to save themselves from ‘economic downturn’ Idaho leaves itself wide open to opportunistic foreign interests.
Chinese Yuan; A new world reserve currency? Economic Assassin | Twelve days into the New Year (2011) and China has already set the wheels in motion to use their most powerful weapon, the Yuan, in order to combat inflation.
Rachel Maddow: Enemy of Liberty and the Bill of Rights The limousine liberal Rachel Maddow used her MSNBC show Thursday to call for a renewed gun-grabbing effort by the government. After running an emotionally charged video segment of Barry Obama paying tribute to nine-year-old mass shooting victim Christina Taylor Green, Maddow read an anti-Second Amendment screed from her teleprompter.
Court Rules Government Can Keep Naked Body Scanner Images Secret A federal judge has ruled that the Department of Homeland Security can keep images produced by x-ray body scanners out of the public domain, in a blow to privacy group The Electronic Privacy Information Center’ s (EPIC) efforts to release more than 2000 of the images that show intimate details of airport travelers’ bodies.
The Witch Hunt Begins: Citizen Spy Network Targets Political Speech and Gun Owners A plethora of tyrannical campaigns have been initiated and designed to break up communities and turn citizens against one another. The justifications for these fascist programs are always a matter of national security. The real reason for these programs and even the events that brought them into existence is to set up a police control grid.
Congress, Once Again, Looks To Extend Patriot Act With Little Or No Debate So here we are in 2011, and where’s the debate and the promised effort to sunset the worst aspects of the Patriot Act?
Drudgereport: $100 OIL: DEAL WITH IT
Rising Gasoline Prices Put Consumers in Sour Mood...
UK WARNING: OIL PRICES MAY KILL ECONOMY AND THE COALITION... [ No! It’s the debased, over-printed u.s. et als fiat currency which is killing the economies though masked by the fraudulent wall street feel good, for them, bubble and which lends credence to the calls for a new world reserve currency, ie., juan, etc. ]
EYES ON OPEC...[ Beyond the propaganda, the eyes should be on the complicit, fraudulent fed and the ‘printing presses’ of and for the debased currencies. This is not OPEC’s doing but rather an economic axiom which requires that a precious commodity increase in price when the debased paper currency in which it is measured decreases in value (as now with over-printing, over-creating for ultimately the exclusive benefit of the frauds on wall street). ]
Feds threaten to sue states over union laws … [ but hands off the frauds on wall street they say ] ...
Comprehensive List of Tax Hikes in Obamacare...
FT: What chance a US default?
Downwardly mobile in D.C. area (Washington Post) [ Well said, I love this … except, not so limited to the d.c. area, but rather applicable to 21st century america in general … the ‘downwardly mobile thang’ … except as to the relatively few as to whom no laws nor rules of civilized behavior apply in any meaningful way … you know, the ones who’ve plundered this nation, this nation’s treasury, this nation’s people, and all the while plundering other peoples in other nations to facilitate the schemes used in plundering the people of this nation (wall street, the 3 strikes branches of government, war profiteers, etc.). ] For millions of Americans, the recession has knocked them down the socioeconomic ladder. ANALYSIS | Palin's 'blood libel' comment backfires Washington Post) [ God knows I’m no fan of sarah palin’s although I am constrained to admit that as a fan of Saturday Night Live, I do appreciate her contribution to comedic content in the show. That said, this new ‘tempest in a teapot’ of her own making is a bit overdone. After all, it should be common knowledge by now, to put it mildly, that she is quite dumb; and, like that burnt out, dumb, war criminal and moron, dumbya bush (see , ie., bushisms from bush the brain-damaged moron http://albertpeia.com/bushisms.htm), she also has trouble with words; more specifically, the meanings of words. But it is also true that wobama and his ilk have trouble with words and their meaning, particularly when those spoken words are measured against what he does, his ilk never seeming to discern the glaring difference … wobama the ‘b’ for b*** s***. Lamentably (by her) and unexpectedly for palin was her failure to fully understand ‘that jewish thing’ attached to the phrase and the tender sensibilities of those who previously have been among the ranks of what seems more and more to be a somewhat offbeat fanclub of sorts. Yeah, that ‘never hear the end of it’ jewish stereotype of paranoid sensibilities to religious / ethnic prejudice / slur behind some word, phrase, or even a sneeze (spielberg’s childhood memories) can wind up turning around and biting you in you’re a** ! Previously: Krauthammer: Beyond Ariz., a reckless charge (Washington Post) [ If it were only that simple; viz., a palin ( I’ve previously said I’m more concerned with her level of stupidity, dumb enough in an infantile way to prove she had gonads by pressing the button – never goin’ to happen, her being in that position), a beck, a bush, a wobama (Drudgereport: OBAMA FLASHBACK: 'If They Bring a Knife to the Fight, We Bring a Gun'... ), etc., there’d be hope for pervasively corrupt defacto bankrupt america. The fact is, the problem is inherent to america / americans themselves as I previously wrote here and reiterate: Will: Half-baked explanations for tragedy (Washington Post) [ Half-baked? Charlatans? The foregoing are in no short supply in defacto bankrupt, meaningfully lawless, pervasively corrupt, fraud prevalent america. See, for example, RICO case http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm . Moreover, Mr. Will as an oftimes apologist for war criminal, pervasively fraud-prone, defacto bankrupt, etc., america, with crime rates exceeding by far those of any other so-called civilized nations, might indeed find himself among those he’s so categorized. Among the last separate page sections to my website will be a somewhat detailed psychoanalytic evolutionary profile of the u.s. (one might ask who am I to do so which is fair comment to which I would reply, read it, or not, your choice). However, for the nonce, let me say that the it is no small coincidence that the 20th century has been dubbed ‘the american century’. That the 20th century has been considered the bloodiest is at once the natural concomitant of the foregoing reality. Keeping in mind the so-called ‘selective’ processes in both insurance (adverse) and evolutionary (Darwinian) terms, and as well, the psychology of it all from a behavioral perspective, america has indeed evolved. From the genocide of indigenous populations, to outlandish propaganda in support of same (ie., that ‘manifest destiny’ balderdash with overtones of religiosity spoonfed since elementary school, etc.), to contrived conflict / war, such, euphemistically bad behavior has been reinforced, some of which conditioning not always purposeful, ie., the ever greater frauds perpetrated on wall street for which there have been in large part no real punitive consequences to the perpetrators; but, to the contrary, great financial rewards though substantially detrimental to the majority. Despite the surface appeal, that oft asserted ‘blue-blood’ distinction doesn’t pass muster. Aside from the few seeking seeking religious freedom (ie., Puritans among some others), most then new americans were such disaffected rejects of their former homelands that desperation at best was motivation for travel to the wilds of the ‘so-called new world’ as opposed to intelligent, rational choice; criminals, mentally ill, the not-so-bright but ruthless populating the new nation in disparate numbers toward the ends consistent with greed and common criminality, corruption, and venality. As of the age of the dinosaurs, the american century has passed into the annals of a history replete with self-generating terrorism within and without (that blowback thing). DRUDGEREPORT: NATION SHOCKED: CONGRESSWOMAN SHOT IN TUCSON
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Clinton pushes for economic and political reforms in tour of Middle East (Post, January 13, 2011) Clinton expresses solidarity with Arabs on Mideast tour (Post, January 13, 2011; 4:05 PM) Diehl: Mideast threats that can't be ignored (Washington Post) [ Amazing what not running for prospective office can do for balanced thinking, but still not quite. After all, who doesn’t know outside of america / israel that the biggest Mideast threats are … america / israel and those nato allies that are but lapdogs of the former. Moreover, some real scrutiny of and self-analysis by the aforesaid is in order before purporting to be advisors to any nation at all. ]
Tax cuts hinder Obama's plans (Washington Post) [ Plans? What plans? Wobama’s become the proverbial gumball machine; viz., put a nickel in, get a gumball of your choosing. Even his teleprompter has more integrity / credibility than he. Campaign promises, words, plans based on both, are nowhere to be found in the failed presidency of wobama in wobamaland. ] Without deeper budget cuts or fresh revenue, officials will have a tough time meeting the president's targets for tax-code overhaul and deficit reduction.
U.S. urges China to open market, heed intellectual property laws (Washington Post) [ Pretty please,with a cherry on top, and lots of sugar … that’ll work … riiiiight! After all, based upon realities, economic, financial, geo-political (– that perpetual war thing and america’s pervasive corruption / fraud from wall street to all three brances of the u.s. government and ops, see, for example, RICO case http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm ) who should be giving whom advice. ] Commerce secretary says Beijing's policies of protecting domestic industries will no longer suffice.
Henry Kissinger: Our challenge with China (Washington Post) [ Boy … talk about playing both sides of the fence … H.A.K. as in hack … as in a blood-sucking leach of a political hack! To the point, kissinger is a self-interested, greedy zionist whose professional advice to war crimes nation israel has included cordoning off illegal israeli occupied Palestinian territories and massacreing indiscriminantly and completely the people, innocent men, woman, and children, therein. That China’s rising and pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt america’s in ineluctable decline is a foregone conclusion; and, even more to the point, in no small part owing to kissinger’s efforts / policies on his patrons’ (that economic shift to China cheered enthusiastically by ceos and wall street alike) and particularly his own behalf. Little late to the party, mr. hak … after all, what precisely did he do … that kissinger associates thing … for the money … worse than those ‘run-of-the-mill’ lobbyists in d.c. (among the other alphabet soup kitchens, cia, nsa, et als, think stink tanks, etc.). That america will try to stop China’s rise is almost the natural concomitant to perpetual war / pervasively corrupt / defacto bankrupt america’s intractable decline is also a foregone conclusion. That either nation would be dumb enough to embark upon a collision course of self-immolation is not (although america’s self-destructive, in addition to destructive tendencies is a reality lost on no one). ]
Bond Panic to Weigh on Stocks Cadora ‘Despite the stock market's seemingly inexorable rise, clues to a coming crisis continue to build, promising not only to bring down equity prices sooner rather than later, but also to make the correction much more severe than most expect. As readers of my Member Letter know, I have been anticipating a dollar crisis to visit markets sometime in the first half of 2011, spurred by an exodus from bonds as the Federal Reserve continues its malfeasant policies. In now seems the dollar crisis will be paired with a panic in the municipal bond market.
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The Illinois legislature's decision to raise taxes as a means to fill its budget gap sets an ominous tone for the municipal bond market. The message is clear: politicians will attempt to drain taxpayer resources rather than control outrageous spending habits. In other words, the root of the budget problem will be ignored. This direction is bearish not only for munis, but also for the economy.
A muni bond meltdown will be detrimental to the dollar in more than one way, not the least of which comes from the dollar's chief persecutor, Ben Bernanke. Despite Bernanke's persistent denials that the Fed would step in to bail out a state government, pressure will grow on him to do so as the crisis worsens. It will be interesting to see if his political will fails him again.
Higher interest rates from bond markets ... both municipal and Federal ... will do no favors for the stock market. In fact, a sense of crisis will exacerbate an equity decline. I have proposed to readers that when this crisis hits, stocks will fall in tandem with the dollar rather than being supported by its decline. That period of positive correlation may be just in front of us.
The stock market itself is looking quite exhausted. According to my cycle analysis, equities are due for a dive into a yearly low. Several market indicators also suggest the time is ripe for stocks to roll over.
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Consider also that the respectable work performed over at sentimentrader.com shows several sentiment extremes ... all bearish for the equity outlook ... including a very large gap between smart money and dumb money confidence. The stage is set for a significant stock market correction and this week's breakdown in the muni bond market may provide the needed catalyst.’
Merck Hurts, Stocks Stagger After Jobless Claims
Tech-Heavy ETF Hits Short-Term Extreme - High Probability of Reverting to Mean? Cowder ‘It was just another day in the park for the bulls. The continued push since the gap became higher on Jan. 3 has managed to push the tech-heavy QQQQ into a short-term “very overbought” extreme with an RSI (2) at 98.4. As I always state, when an ETF typically reaches an extreme of this manner, the market fades over the short-term (1-3 days). A move that pushes QQQQ lower would likely close the gap at $54.62, which would mean a 3.5% loss for the QQQQ.
A move like this would certainly be advantageous for my current open positions in both the High-Probability and Mean-Reversion strategy. Yes, I took a position later in the afternoon in the tech-heavy index and so far I like the probability on this one. All of the short-term technical indicators that I follow are reading extremes, so I had no choice but to take a position.
Intel (INTC) comes out after the bell tomorrow and should be quite the catalyst for the QQQQ’s next move. I would love to say that the next move is definitely going to be bearish over the short-term, but as we all know in trading, even when M-R probability is leaning heavily towards your side, there are no guarantees.
Short-Term High-Probability, Mean-Reversion Indicator – as of close 1/11/10
Benchmark ETFs
- S&P 500 (SPY) – 83.7 (very overbought)
- Dow Jones (DIA) –75.3 (overbought)
- Russell 2000 (IWM) – 69.3 (neutral)
- NASDAQ 100 (QQQQ) – 90.2 (very overbought) / RSI (2) – 98.5
Sector ETFs
- Biotech (IBB) – 76.8 (overbought)
- Consumer Discretionary (XLY) – 57.0 (neutral)
- Health Care (XLV) – 83.1 (very overbought)
- Financial (XLF) – 74.1 (overbought)
- Energy (XLE) – 79.8 (overbought)
- Gold Miners (GDX) – 42.3 (neutral)
- Industrial (XLI) – 90.9 (overbought) / RSI (2) – 98.7
- Materials (XLB) – 81.9 (very overbought)
- Real Estate (IYR) – 54.5 (neutral)
- Retail (RTH) – 48.9 (neutral)
- Semiconductor (SMH) – 88.6 (very overbought)
- United States Oil Fund (USO) – 65.2 (neutral)
- Utilities (XLU) – 64.6 (neutral)
International ETFs
- Brazil (EWZ) – 69.8 (neutral)
- China 25 (FXI) – 73.1 (overbought)
- EAFE (EFA) – 73.5 (overbought)
- South Korea (EWY) – 75.4 (overbought)
Commodity ETFs
- Gold (GLD) – 56.5 (neutral)
Ultra Extremes
- Small Cap Bear 3x (TZA) – 29.1 (oversold)
- Small-Cap Bull 3x (TNA) – 69.4 (neutral)
- UltraLong QQQQ (QLD) – 91.5 (very overbought) / RSI (2) – 98.8
- Ultra Long S&P 500 (SSO) – 84.3 (very overbought)
- Ultra Short S&P 500 (SDS) – 15.5 (very oversold)
- UltraShort 20+ Treasury (TBT) – 62.8 (neutral)
Disclosure: I am short QQQQ.
Initial Jobless Claims Rise 35,000 ‘NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- The number of Americans filing unemployment claims unexpectedly rose last week, the Labor Department said early Thursday. The advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims increased by 35,000 to 445,000 in the week ended Jan.8, the highest level since October. Economists were expecting initial claims to drop to 405,000, according to consensus estimates from Bloomberg. Estimates ranged from 400,000 to 415,000…’
An Amazing Statistic About Our Abnormal Market [ The only thing amazing is that no one has come forth to state how preposterous this ‘modern day miracle of computerized programming technology’ can make unreality so appealingly and seemingly real that all are swept away with this tsunami of b*** s*** until it’s too late, which as preceding other crashes, seems furthest from thoughts, mind, and plausibility until invariably, grim reality comes a-calling and this scenario as before will end as before especially quite badly. ] ‘Rev Shark at Realmoney.com posted an amazing statistic which I believe he found at sentimenttrader.com.
According to Sentimentrader.com, the S&P 500 has now gone 92 days without closing below its 50-day moving average. That has only happened 17 times since 1928. But what is really amazing is that over the past 30 days, we haven't closed below the 10-day moving average even once. That has never happened in the last 82 years of market history.
As I've stated multiple times, it is not the rally we are experiencing that is strange, it is the total inability to pullback at any point that is boggling to anyone who has more than 6 months of market history under their belt.
Don't forget in September and October we did not close below the 13 day moving average for 2 months in a row. Indeed other than a hiccup caused by Ireland, we might be working on the 5th month of no pullbacks.
This is an abnormal market. Anyone using historical context to trade is lost at sea. Congratulations to Mr. Brian Sack, the Bernank, and his POMO crew for making a mockery of traditional somewhat 'free' markets
Nevertheless, balance sheet policy can still lower longer-term borrowing costs for many households and businesses, and it adds to household wealth by keeping asset prices higher than they otherwise would be.
Amen Brian. In the future I'd just eliminate the middle man (primary dealers) and just buy SPY futures directly on a daily basis, much more efficient than our current charade. Granted that removes the Wizard of Oz effect (don't look behind the curtain - it's magic), but at least it would be intellectually honest. (I know, I know - primary dealers don't "buy stock directly" blah blah)
[Jan 6, 2010: Charles Biderman of TrimTabs Claims US Government Supporting Stock Market]’
13% Thursday - When Will You Capitulate? Davis ‘It’s starting! [chart] The last of the bears are now capitulating. We’re hearing it in Member Chat and we’re reading it in analyst reports and we’re seeing the fund managers on TV – it is very out of vogue to be a bear.
Just a few weeks ago, I pointed out to Members how few bears remained by saying "Look to your left, look to your right, look in front of you and look behind you – you would be the only bear." That was way back when "only" 20% of investors were bearish – as of yesterday, we lost 1/3 of those poor creatures and now only 13% of the market is bearish. Now you can look diagonally as well and you’ll STILL be the only bear!
Certainly the market seems to be proving the primary axiom of "You can’t fight the Fed." Pretty much no matter what happens, the market goes up. Bryan Leighton from Traddr! makes a good point saying: "It’s a neutral to positive market and the only thing that can change that is some sort of surprise event out of Europe or out of Asia or something major out of the US that the Fed is not ready for or prepared for. If they are prepared for it – it will not happen – it will not have a major effect on the markets."
That’s the reality we’re dealing with out there. As long as the Fed and their pet IBanks are running the markets and as long as volume is at 3-year lows, allowing the TradeBots to control each move – then it is wrong to be a bear. But, is it 87% wrong? 87% bullish sentiment isn’t just "very" bullish – it’s a new, historic high. It’s like going to a fight where the entire crowd only cheers for one guy which, like professional wrestling, would be an automatic indication that the game must be fake, Fake, FAKE!
As you can see from this longer-term chart, we are as extremely bullish now as we were extremely bearish in the two worst market events of the past quarter-century. Much the way that Black Monday of 1987 and the Crashes of 2008/9 were unique buying opportunities at 15% bullish, this may be a unique shorting opportunity at 15% bearish that you are not likely to see again for decades.
As an optimist, it was easy for me to say 'buy' when I was one of the 15% still bullish in March of 2009 – don’t expect the same conviction from me about selling in January of 2011. We are generally bullish. We are long-term bullish. BUT – and it’s a Big But (not to mention blasphemy) – I don’t think The Bernank is either all powerful or infallible and I do believe that "some sort of surprise event out of Europe or out of Asia or something major out of the US" could happen at any moment so, as I said yesterday – we remain short-term cautious between now and April, even as the rest of the market marches towards 99% bullish around us.
This does not stop us from making some bullish plays – in fact Scott of Sabrient just reviewed the 4 Dark Horse Trader’s Hedge plays we’ve been tracking in a virtual portfolio since the fall and the only problem we’ve been having is they are too successful as the stocks have been outpacing our expectations and we have to let go of both Veeco Instruments (VECO) (with a 36% profit in 5 months) and World Acceptance Corp. (WRLD) (with a 25% profit in 3 months) because the stocks performed so well that they’re not worth adjusting our hedges anymore. That’s why we like our bullish to neutral Buy/Write Strategy, we can’t be harmed to the upside, only forced to take our profits off the table and find anther partner to dance with – which isn’t a bad forced discipline on stocks that are running ahead of 100% annual gains.
Could we make more money by just "going for it" and being 100% bullish? Sure we could, and once inflation takes hold and begins to snowball the markets higher, that is exactly what we’re going to do but, as I have pointed out before – missing the first 100% move up in the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange wasn’t a big deal since it was followed by moves of 1,000%, 1,000,000%, 1,000,000,000% and 1,000,000,000,000% before the markets finally calmed down. On the other hand, people who participated in Brazil’s 100% run in 8 months that began in October of 2007 found themselves right back where they started just 4 months later.
We participated 100% bullishly since our June 26th Buy List, which was followed by July 7th’s "9 Fabulous Dow Plays Plus a Chip Shot," July 26th's "Turning $10K to $50K by Jan 21st" (halfway there), August 29th’s "Defending Your Portfolio With Dividends" and September 3rd’s "September’s Dozen." That’s how we played the rally from S&P 1,030 to 1,160 (10%).
On October 3rd, I put up "October’s Overbought Eight" and they were AMZN, BIDU, CMG, FSLR, MOS, NFLX, PCLN and TLT. Needless to say, we got stopped out of most of those pretty quickly and that led to a Q4 version of "Defending Your Portfolio With Dividends" on October 23rd (S&P 1,180) and we rode those out through December 11th, when we got tired of waiting for a correction and (at S&P 1,240) went with "Breakout Defense – 5,000% in 5 Trades or Less" and those were followed with December 25th’s (S&P 1,256) "Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2011" also with a few trades aimed at making around 500% should the rally continue.
So why is it, with only one bearish Member Portfolio in 7 months, that I feel like I might be too bearish? Well, for one thing – I’m getting lonely. I work on the Web and my colleagues in the MSM and the Blogosphere have pretty much all found religion and developed an almost unshakable faith in The Bernank, in China, in Corporate America, in Commodities – you name it, they think it can’t go wrong. So much so that the VIX, which measures the market’s expectation of stock market volatility over the next 30 day period, has dropped all the way to 16.
Now 16 isn’t "low" for the VIX, it’s actually about the historic average. It is, however a far cry from 89 in 2008 and 48 as recently as May and if you tell me I now have less to worry about today than I did in 2007 when we were still in the middle of a major rally and 60% of investors were bullish and the VIX was in the mid-20s, I have to ask you why? 10% more people are unemployed than in 2007, the World is $18Tn more in debt than it was then, Inflation has tripled (although you can argue that playing inflation IS the bullish premise), Global GDP projections are 1/2 of what they were, Banks are unstable, States are unstable and Nations are unstable yet I am supposed to buy Netflix (NFLX) (we are short) with a p/e multiple of 71.50 or AMZN with a p/e of 74.50 (we want to be short) based primarily on my faith that the Great Bernanke in the sky would not let anything bad happen to my investments?
Well sorry, call me an atheist, call it blasphemy, but I do not have 100% faith in the Great Bernanke in the sky. I may have had 60% faith and I may have even had 70% faith but I DO NOT have 87% faith that Bernanke will overcome all those MASSIVE, SCARY, DANGEROUS Global obstacles that are still littering the investing landscape and take us to the promised land of S&P 1,500. Does that make me bearish or sensibly cautious? When 87% of the market is bullish, then sensibly cautious looks a lot like bearish, doesn’t it?
Perhaps that’s why people like the right Reverend Jim Cramer and his Cult of the MoMo Stocks irritate me lately. That man has FAITH! Well, either faith or he’s being paid off by fund managers to pimp their stocks so they can dump them on Jimmy’s fanatical followers while they pick up whatever he’s chasing people out of on the cheap – it’s hard to tell….
I was the lone bullish preacher in the wilderness in March of 2009 so I have seen the promised land of recovery and, unlike Dr. King, who said "I may not get there with you" and was, unfortunately, right, I fully intend to get there and I want us all to get there with our portfolios intact so we will continue to hedge the market following the sound policy advocated by Ronald Reagan when dealing with the Russians, which was: "Trust — but verify."
I pointed out on the first trading day of 2011 that we expected January to be heavily manipulated right up to expiration. Assuming Lloyd and Co. were lazy and using the same Alpha 2 Bot program they ran last January, we were looking for a 300 point run that tops out at 11,850 on the Dow and 1,285 on the S&P and we hit goal on the S&P yesterday, to the penny of where I said we’d be on Jan 3rd – trusted and verified. Now we will see how the next 7 market sessions play out into expiration day. If we pop higher – we’re off the pattern and we’ll have to consider leaving the 13%, shouting hallelujah and joining the crowd but, if we flatline or fail to hold – then you can expect the first Member Portfolio of 2011 to be a bearish one!’
Jobless claims jump, wholesale food costs surge Reuters | U.S. jobless claims jumped to their highest level since October last week while food and energy costs lifted producer prices in December.
S&P, Moody’s Warn On U.S. Credit Rating Two leading credit rating companies have cautioned the U.S. on its credit rating, expressing concern over a deteriorating fiscal situation that they say needs correction.
‘Burst banks flood world as banksters sell water to people’ Max Keiser looks at all the scandal behind the financial news headlines.
Corporate Media Portrays Loughner as Gold and Silver Advocate Chadwick Matlin, a guest contributor writing for Reuters, attempts to connect Jared Lee Loughner to the growing movement for sound money in the United States.
The Looming Threat of National Debt As the United States hurtles closer to the 100% debt to GDP mark—95.5% as of today—it becomes important to assess whether unsustainable national debt will be a chronic problem to plague the United States for generations to come.
14 Eye Opening Statistics Which Reveal Just How Dramatically The U.S. Economy Has Collapsed Since 2007 Most Americans have become so accustomed to the “new normal” of continual economic decline that they don’t even remember how good things were just a few short years ago. ‘The Economic Collapse Jan 10, 2011
’Most Americans have become so accustomed to the “new normal” of continual economic decline that they don’t even remember how good things were just a few short years ago. Back in 2007, unemployment was very low, good jobs were much easier to get, far fewer Americans were living in poverty or enrolled in welfare programs and government finances were in much better shape. Of course most of this prosperity was fueled by massive amounts of debt, but at least times were better. Unfortunately, things have really deteriorated over the last several years. Since 2007, unemployment has skyrocketed, foreclosures have set new all-time records, personal bankruptcies have soared and U.S. government debt has gotten completely and totally out of control. Poll after poll has shown that Americans are now far less optimistic about the future than they were in 2007. It is almost as if the past few years have literally sucked the hope out of millions upon millions of Americans.
Sadly, our economic situation is continually getting worse. Every month the United States loses more factories. Every month the United States loses more jobs. Every month the collective wealth of U.S. citizens continues to decline. Every month the federal government goes into even more debt. Every month state and local governments go into even more debt.
Unfortunately, things are going to get even worse in the years ahead. Right now we look back on 2005, 2006 and 2007 as “good times”, but in a few years we will look back on 2010 and 2011 as “good times”.
We are in the midst of a long-term economic decline, and the very bad economic choices that we have been making as a nation for decades are now starting to really catch up with us.
So as horrible as you may think that things are now, just keep in mind that things are going to continue to deteriorate in the years ahead.
But for the moment, let us remember how far we have fallen over the past few years. The following are 14 eye opening statistics which reveal just how dramatically the U.S. economy has collapsed since 2007….
#1 In November 2007, the official U.S. unemployment rate was just 4.7 percent. Today, the official U.S. unemployment rate is 9.4 percent.
#2 In November 2007, 18.8% of unemployed Americans had been out of work for 27 weeks or longer. Today that percentage is up to 41.9%.
#3 As 2007 began, there were just over 1 million Americans that had been unemployed for half a year or longer. Today, there are over 6 million Americans that have been unemployed for half a year or longer.
#4 Nearly 10 million Americans now receive unemployment insurance, whichis almost four times as many as were receiving it back in 2007.
#5 More than half of the U.S. labor force (55 percent) has “suffered a spell of unemployment, a cut in pay, a reduction in hours or have become involuntary part-time workers” since the “recession” began in December 2007.
#6 According to one analysis, the United States has lost a total of approximately 10.5 million jobs since 2007.
#7 As 2007 began, only 26 million Americans were on food stamps. Today, an all-time record of 43.2 million Americans are enrolled in the food stamp program.
#8 In 2007, the U.S. government held a total of $725 billion in mortgage debt. As of the middle of 2010, the U.S. government held a total of $5.148 trillion in mortgage debt.
#9 In the year prior to the “official” beginning of the most recent recession in 2007, the IRS filed just 684,000 tax liens against U.S. taxpayers. During 2010, the IRS filed over a million tax liens against U.S. taxpayers.
#10 From the year 2000 through the year 2007, there were 27 bank failures in the United States. From 2008 through 2010, there were 314 bank failures in the United States.
#11 According to the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, the number of U.S. families with children living in homeless sheltersincreased from 131,000 to 170,000 between 2007 and 2009.
#12 In 2007, one poll found that 43 percent of Americans were living “paycheck to paycheck”. Sadly, according to a survey released very close to the end of 2010, approximately 55 percent of all Americans are now living paycheck to paycheck.
#13 In 2007, the “official” federal budget deficit was just 161 billion dollars. In 2010, the “official” federal budget deficit was approximately 1.3 trillion dollars.
#14 As 2007 began, the U.S. national debt was just under 8.7 trillion dollars. Today, the U.S. national debt has just surpassed 14 trillion dollars and it continues to soar into the stratosphere.
So is there any hope that we can turn all of this around?
Unfortunately, the massive amount of debt that we have piled up as a society over the last several decades has made that impossible.
If you add up all forms of debt (government debt, business debt, individual debt), it comes to approximately 360 percent of GDP. It is the biggest debt bubble in the history of the world.
If the federal government and our state governments stop borrowing and spending so much money, our economy would collapse. But if they keep borrowing and spending so much money they will continually make the eventual economic collapse even worse.
We are in the terminal stages of the most horrific debt spiral the world has ever seen, and when the debt spiral gets stopped the house of cards is going to finally come down for good.
So enjoy these times while you still have them. Yes, today is not nearly as prosperous as 2007 was, but today is most definitely a whole lot better than 2015 or 2020 is going to be.
Sadly, we could have avoided this financial disaster completely if only we had listened more carefully to those that founded this nation. Once upon a time, Thomas Jefferson said the following….
I wish it were possible to obtain a single amendment to our Constitution. I would be willing to depend on that alone for the reduction of the administration of our government to the genuine principles of its Constitution; I mean an additional article, taking from the federal government the power of borrowing.’
Tipping Point: 25 Signs That The Coming Financial Collapse Is Now Closer Then Ever The financial collapse that so many of us have been anticipating is seemingly closer then ever. Over the past several weeks, there have been a host of ominous signs for the U.S. economy.
The Economic Collapse
Dec 17, 2010
The financial collapse that so many of us have been anticipating is seemingly closer then ever. Over the past several weeks, there have been a host of ominous signs for the U.S. economy. Yields on U.S. Treasuries have moved up rapidly and Moody’s is publicly warning that it may have to cut the rating on U.S. government debt soon. Mortgage rates are also moving up aggressively. The euro and the U.S. dollar both look incredibly shaky. Jobs continue to be shipped out of the United States at a blistering pace as our politicians stand by and do nothing. Confidence in U.S. government debt around the globe continues to decline. State and local governments that are drowning in debt across the United States are savagely cutting back on even essential social services and are coming up with increasingly “creative” ways of getting more money out of all of us. Meanwhile, tremor after tremor continues to strike the world financial system. So does this mean that we have almost reached a tipping point? Is the world on the verge of a major financial collapse?
Let’s hope not, but with each passing week the financial news just seems to get eve worse. Not only is U.S. government debt spinning wildly toward a breaking point, but many U.S. states (such as California) are in such horrific financial condition that they are beginning to resemble banana republics.
But it is not just the United States that is in trouble. Nightmarish debt problems in Greece, Spain, Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Belgium and several other European nations threaten to crash the euro at any time. In fact, many economists are now openly debating which will collapse first – the euro or the U.S. dollar.
Sadly, this is the inevitable result of constructing a global financial system on debt. All debt bubbles eventually collapse. Currently we are living in the biggest debt bubble in the history of the world, and when this one bursts it is going to be a disaster of truly historic proportions.
So will we reach a tipping point soon? Well, the following are 25 signs that the financial collapse is rapidly getting closer….
#1 The official U.S. unemployment rate has not been beneath 9 percent since April 2009.
#2 According to the U.S. Census Bureau, there are currently 6.3 million vacant homes in the United States that are either for sale or for rent.
#3 It is being projected that the U.S. trade deficit with China could hit 270 billion dollars for the entire year of 2010.
#4 Back in 2000, 7.2 percent of blue collar workers were either unemployed or underemployed. Today that figure is up to 19.5 percent.
#5 The Chinese government has accumulated approximately $2.65 trillion in total foreign exchange reserves. They have drained this wealth from the economies of other nations (such as the United States) and instead of reinvesting all of it they are just sitting on much of it. This is creating tremendous imbalances in the global economy.
#6 Since the year 2000, we have lost 10% of our middle class jobs. In the year 2000 there were approximately 72 million middle class jobs in the United States but today there are only about 65 million middle class jobs.
#7 The United States now employs about the same number of people in manufacturing as it did back in 1940. Considering the fact that we had 132 million people living in this country in 1940 and that we have well over 300 million people living in this country today, that is a very sobering statistic.
#8 According to CoreLogic, U.S. housing prices have now declined for three months in a row.
#9 The average rate on a 30 year fixed rate mortgage soared 11 basis points just this past week. As mortgage rates continue to push higher it is going to make it even more difficult for American families to afford homes.
#10 22.5 percent of all residential mortgages in the United States were in negative equity as of the end of the third quarter of 2010.
#11 The U.S. monetary base has more than doubled since the beginning of the most recent recession.
#12 U.S. Treasury yields have been rising steadily during the 4th quarter of 2010 and recently hit a six-month high.
#13 Incoming governor Jerry Brown is scrambling to find $29 billion more to cut from the California state budget. The following quote from Brown about the desperate condition of California state finances is not going to do much to inspire confidence in California’s financial situation around the globe….
“We’ve been living in fantasy land. It is much worse than I thought. I’m shocked.”
#14 24.3 percent of the residents of El Centro, California are currently unemployed.
#15 The average home in Merced, California has declined in value by 63 percent over the past four years.
#16 Detroit Mayor Dave Bing has come up with a new way to save money. He wants to cut 20 percent of Detroit off from essential social services such as road repairs, police patrols, functioning street lights and garbage collection.
#17 The second most dangerous city in the United States – Camden, New Jersey – is about to lay off about half its police in a desperate attempt to save money.
#18 In 2010, 55 percent of Americans between the ages of 60 and 64 were in the labor market. Ten years ago, that number was just 47 percent. More older Americans than ever find that they have to keep working just to survive.
#19 Back in 1998, the United States had 25 percent of the world’s high-tech export market and China had just 10 percent. Ten years later, the United States had less than 15 percent and China’s share had soared to 20 percent.
#20 The U.S. government budget deficit increased to a whopping $150.4 billion last month, which represented the biggest November budget deficit on record.
#21 The U.S. government is somehow going to have to roll over existing debt and finance new debt that is equivalent to 27.8 percent of GDP in 2011.
#22 The United States had been the leading consumer of energy on the globe for about 100 years, but this past summer China took over the number one spot.
#23 According to an absolutely stunning new poll, 40 percent of all U.S. doctors plan to bail out of the profession over the next three years.
#24 As 2007 began, there were just over 1 million Americans that had been unemployed for half a year or longer. Today, there are over 6 million Americans that have been unemployed for half a year or longer.
#25 All over the United States, local governments have begun instituting “police response fees”. For example, New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg has come up with a plan under which a fee of $365 would be charged if police are called to respond to an automobile accident where no injuries are involved. If there are injuries as a result of the crash that is going to cost extra.
16 Nightmarish Economic Trends To Watch Carefully In 2011 The American Dream Dec 15, 2010 ‘If you only watch the “economic pundits” on television, it can be very confusing to figure out exactly what is happening with the U.S. economy. One pundit will pull out a couple statistics that got a little bit better over the past month and claim that we have entered a time of solid recovery. Another pundit will pull out a couple statistics that got a little worse over the past month and claim that we are headed for trouble. So what is the truth? Well, if you really want to get a clear idea of what is really going on you have to look at the long-term trends. There are some economic trends which just keep getting worse year after year after year, and it is those trends that tell the real story of the decline of our economic system.
As you examine the long-term trends, you quickly come to realize that the U.S. is trapped in an endless spiral of debt, the middle class is being wiped out, the U.S. dollar is being destroyed and America is rapidly becoming a post-industrial wasteland.
Posted below are 16 nightmarish economic trends to watch carefully in 2011. It is becoming exceedingly apparent that unless something is done rapidly we are heading for an economic collapse of unprecedented magnitude….
#1 Do you want to see something scary? Just check out the chart below. Since the beginning of the economic downturn, the U.S. monetary base has more than doubled. But don’t worry – Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has promised us that this could never cause inflation. In fact, Bernanke says that we need to inject even more dollars into the economy. So if you are alarmed by the chart below, you are just being irrational according to Bernanke….
#2 Thousands of our factories, millions of our jobs and hundreds of billions of dollars of our national wealth continue to be shipped overseas. In 1985, the U.S. trade deficit with China was 6 million dollars for the entire year. In the month of August alone, the U.S. trade deficit with China was over 28 billion dollars. Nobel economist Robert W. Fogel of the University of Chicago is projecting that the Chinese economy will be three times larger than the U.S. economy by the year 2040 if current trends continue.
#3 The United States is rapidly becoming a post-industrial wasteland. Back in 1959, manufacturing represented 28 percent of all U.S. economic output. In 2008, it represented only 11.5 percent and it continues to fall. Sadly, the truth is that America is being deindustrialized. As of the end of 2009, less than 12 million Americans worked in manufacturing. The last time that less than 12 million Americans were employed in manufacturing was in 1941.
#4 The number of Americans that have been out of work for an extended period of time has absolutely exploded over the last few years. As 2007 began, there were just over 1 million Americans that had been unemployed for half a year or longer. Today, there are over 6 million Americans that have been unemployed for half a year or longer.
#5 The middle class continues to be squeezed out of existence. According to a poll taken in 2009, 61 percent of Americans ”always or usually” live paycheck to paycheck. That was up substantially from 49 percent in 2008 and 43 percent in 2007.
#6 The number of Americans living in poverty is absolutely skyrocketing. 42.9 million Americans are now on food stamps, and one out of every six Americans is now enrolled in at least one anti-poverty program run by the federal government. Unfortunately, many of those that have been hardest hit by this economic downturn have been children. According to one new study, approximately 21 percent of all children in the United States are living below the poverty line in 2010 - the highest rate in 20 years.
#7 Many American families have been pushed beyond the breaking point during this economic downturn. Over 1.4 million Americans filed for personal bankruptcy in 2009, which represented a 32 percent increase over 2008. The final number for 2010 is expected to be even higher.
#8 The U.S. real estate market continues to stagnate. During the third quarter of 2010, 67 percent of mortgages in Nevada were “underwater”, 49 percent of mortgages in Arizona were “underwater” and 46 percent of mortgages in Florida were “underwater”. So what happens if home prices go down even more?
#9 More elderly Americans than ever are being forced to put off retirement and continue working. In 2010, 55 percent of Americans between the ages of 60 and 64 were in the labor market. Ten years ago, that number was just 47 percent. Unfortunately, it looks like this problem will only get worse in the years ahead. In America today, approximately half of all workers have less than $2000 saved up for retirement.
#10 In the United States today, there are simply far too many retirees and not nearly enough workers to support them. Back in 1950 each retiree’s Social Security benefit was paid for by 16 workers. Today, each retiree’s Social Security benefit is paid for by approximately 3.3 workers. By 2025 it is projected that there will be approximately two workers for each retiree.
#11 Financial assets continue to become concentrated in fewer and fewer hands. For example, the “big four” U.S. banks (Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and Wells Fargo) had approximately 22 percent of all deposits in FDIC-insured institutions back in 2000. As of the middle of 2009 that figure was up to 39 percent.
#12 The Federal Reserve has been destroying the value of the U.S. dollar for decades. Since the Federal Reserve was created in 1913, the U.S. dollar has lost over 95 percent of its purchasing power. An item that cost $20.00 in 1970 would cost you $112.35 today. An item that cost $20.00 in 1913 would cost you $440.33 today.
#13 Commodity prices continue to soar into the stratosphere. Ten years ago, the price of a barrel of oil hovered around 20 to 30 dollars most of the time. Today, the price of oil is rapidly closing in on 100 dollars a barrel and there are now fears that it could soon go much higher than that.
#14 Federal government spending is completely and totally out of control. The U.S. government budget deficit increased to a whopping $150.4 billion last month, which represented the biggest November deficit on record. But our politicians can’t seem to break their addiction to debt. In fact, Democrats are trying to ram through a 1,924 page, 1.1 trillion dollar spending bill in the final days of the lame-duck session of Congress before the Republicans take control of the House of Representatives next year.
#15 The U.S. national debt is rapidly closing in on 14 trillion dollars. It is more than 13 times larger than it was just 30 short years ago. According to an official U.S. Treasury Department report to Congress, the U.S. national debt is projected to climb to an estimated $19.6 trillion by 2015.
#16 Unfortunately, the official government numbers grossly understate the horrific nature of the crisis we are facing. John Williams of Shadow Government Statistics has calculated that if the federal government would have used GAAP accounting standards to measure the federal budget deficit for 2009, it would have been approximately 8.8 trillion dollars. Not only that, but John Williams now says that U.S. government debt is so wildly out of control that it is mathematically impossible for us to “grow” our way out of it….
The government’s finances not only are out of control, but the actual deficit is not containable. Put into perspective, if the government were to raise taxes so as to seize 100% of all wages, salaries and corporate profits, it still would be showing an annual deficit using GAAP accounting on a consistent basis. In like manner, given current revenues, if it stopped spending every penny (including defense and homeland security) other than for Social Security and Medicare obligations, the government still would be showing an annual deficit. Further, the U.S. has no potential way to grow out of this shortfall.
The more one examines the U.S. economic situation, the more depressing it becomes. The U.S. financial system is trapped inside a horrific debt spiral and we are headed straight for economic oblivion.
If our leaders attempt to interrupt the debt spiral it will plunge our economy into a depression. If our leaders attempt to keep the debt spiral going for several more years it will just make the eventual crash even worse. Either way, we are headed for a financial implosion that will be truly historic.
The debt-fueled good times that we have been enjoying for the last several decades are rapidly coming to an end. Unfortunately for the tens of millions of Americans that are already suffering, our economic problems are only going to get worse in the years ahead.’
Jobless Recovery?: 25 Unemployment Statistics That Are Almost Too Depressing To Read ‘… Unemployment is up again! That’s right – even though Wall Street is swimming in cash and the Obama administration is declaring that “the recession is over”, the U.S. unemployment rate has gone even higher. So are you enjoying the jobless recovery? Economic Collapse Blog Dec 4, 2010 ‘Guess what? Unemployment is up again! That’s right – even though Wall Street is swimming in cash and the Obama administration is declaring that “the recession is over”, the U.S. unemployment rate has gone even higher ... Times are really, really tough and unfortunately the long-term outlook is very bleak. We should have compassion on those who are out of work right now, because soon many of us may join them.
The following are 25 unemployment statistics that are almost too depressing to read….
#1 According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the U.S. unemployment rate for November was 9.8 percent. This was up from 9.6 percent in October, and it continues a trend of depressingly high unemployment rates. The official unemployment number has been at 9.5 percent or higher for well over a year at this point.
#2 In November 2006, the “official” U.S. unemployment rate was just 4.5 percent.
#3 Most economists had been expecting the U.S. economy to add about 150,000 jobs in November. Instead, it only added 39,000.
#4 In the United States today, there are over 15 million people who are “officially” considered to be unemployed for statistical purposes. But everyone knows that the “real” number is even much larger than that.
#5 As 2007 began, there were just over 1 million Americans that had been unemployed for half a year or longer. Today, there are over 6 million Americans that have been unemployed for half a year or longer.
#6 The number of “persons not in the labor force” in the United States recently set another new all-time record.
#7 It now takes the average unemployed American over 33 weeks to find a job.
#8 When you throw in “discouraged workers” and “underemployed workers”, the “real” unemployment rate in the state of California is actually about 22 percent.
#9 In America today there are not nearly enough jobs for everyone. In fact, there are now approximately 5 unemployed Americans for every single job opening.
#10 According to The New York Times, Americans that have been unemployed for five weeks or less are three times more likely to find a new job in the coming month than Americans that have been unemployed for over a year.
#11 The U.S. economy would need to create 235,120 new jobs a month to get the unemployment rate down to pre-recession levels by 2016. Does anyone think that there is even a prayer that is going to happen?
#12 There are 9 million Americans that are working part-time for “economic reasons”. In other words, those Americans would gladly take full-time jobs if they could get them, but all they have been able to find is part-time work.
#13 In 2009, total wages, median wages, and average wages all declined in the United States.
#14 As of the end of 2009, less than 12 million Americans worked in manufacturing. The last time that less than 12 million Americans were employed in manufacturing was in 1941.
#15 The United States has lost at least 7.5 million jobs since the recession began.
#16 Today, only about 40 percent of Ford Motor Company’s 178,000 workers are employed in North America, and a big percentage of those jobs are in Canada and Mexico.
#17 In 1959, manufacturing represented 28 percent of U.S. economic output. In 2008, it represented 11.5 percent.
#18 Earlier this year, one poll found that 28% of all American households had at least one member that was looking for a full-time job.
#19 In the United States today, over 18,000 parking lot attendants have college degrees.
#20 The United States has lost a staggering 32 percent of its manufacturing jobs since the year 2000.
#21 As the employment situation continues to stagnate, millions of American families have decided to cut back on things such as insurance coverage. For example, the percentage of American households that have life insurance coverage is at its lowest level in 50 years.
#22 Unless Congress acts, and there is no indication that is going to happen, approximately 2 million Americans will stop receiving unemployment checks over the next couple of months.
#23 A poll that was released by the Pew Research Center back in June discovered that an astounding 55 percent of the U.S. labor force has experienced either unemployment, a pay decrease, a reduction in hours or an involuntary move to part-time work since the economic downturn began.
#24 According to Richard McCormack, the United States has lost over 42,000 factories (and counting) since 2001.
#25 In the United States today, 317,000 waiters and waitresses have college degrees.
But this is what we get for creating the biggest debt bubble in the history of the world. For decades we have been digging a deeper hole for ourselves by going into increasingly larger amounts of debt. In America today, our entire economy is based on debt. Even our money is debt. We were fools if we ever thought this could go on forever. Just think about it. Have you ever gone out and run up a bunch of debt? It can be a lot of fun sitting behind the wheel of a new car, running your credit cards up to the limit and buying a beautiful big house that you cannot afford. But in the end what happens? It always catches up with you. Well, our collective debt is starting to catch up with us. There is a sea of red ink on every level of American society. It is only a matter of time before it destroys our economy. IF YOU THINK THAT THINGS ARE BAD NOW, JUST WAIT. THINGS ARE GOING TO GET A WHOLE LOT WORSE. A HORRIFIC ECONOMIC COLLAPSE IS COMING, AND IT IS GOING TO BE VERY, VERY PAINFUL.’
Howard Davidowitz on the Economy: "Here Are the Numbers ... WE'RE BROKE!" 11-25-10 ‘The U.S. economy "is a complete disaster," Howard Davidowitz declared here in July, the most recent in a string of dire predictions from Tech Ticker's most entertaining guest.On the eve of Thanksgiving, I asked Davidowitz if he had any regrets, or was ready to throw in the towel given recent signs of economic revival. Are you kidding me? "Here are the numbers...we're broke," Davidowitz declares, noting the U.S. government goes $5 billion deeper into debt every day and is facing $1 trillion-plus annual deficits for the next decade. "In other words, we're bankrupt."As with the economy, Davidowitz is unwaveringly consistent in his views on President Obama, calling him "deranged, dysfunctional and discredited."Results of the midterm election show "the people of this country think we are in a catastrophe," he says. "I'm with them."Check the accompanying video for more of Howard's unfettered opinions and stay tuned for additional clips from this interview. And...Happy Thanksgiving! Aaron Task is the host of Tech Ticker. You can follow him on Twitter at @atask or email him at altask@yahoo.com’
Timid Tuesday: Is it Safe? Davis ‘… This is how we pay off our current debts and I think bondholders are simply happy to get anything out of a country that admits it owes $15Tn (1/4 of global GDP) but probably owes closer to $60Tn (entire global GDP) in the form of unfunded liabilities. The funniest thing about this (and you have to laugh) is to see Conservative pundits get on TV and talk about how we need to cut $100Bn worth of discretionary spending to "fix" this (while continuing to spend $1Tn on the military and $1Tn on tax cuts for the top 1% each year). There is no fixing this and even a Republican said you can’t fool all of the people all of the time. THIS HOUSE OF CARDS IS TEETERING FOLKS – PLEASE BE CAREFUL OUT THERE! ‘
17 Things Worrying Investors Lloyd's Wall of Worry
Worry Count: 17
CHINA: 1,330,044,605 people can’t be wrong.
The PIIGS: Fasten your seatbelts. It’s gonna be a long, bumpy, expensive, weird, (insert your own adjective here) freak show of a ride.
CALIFORNIA AND THE OTHER 49 STATES: Not yet as dire as “The PIIGS”. Might I suggest the classier moniker of “The Prosciuttos” for the American basket-case states?
QE II: Gobble?
U.S. ECONOMY: The “Punky Brewster” of the global economic landscape.
UNEMPLOYMENT: Only thing worse than losing your job, losing your unemployment check. At least there’s the holiday season to cheer everyone up (read: heavy sarcasm).
TAXES: Praying to the Financial Market Gods that we don’t have another TARP-like vote fiasco.
OBAMA ADMINISTRATION PART II: Still two years before the Pres. election and the peanut gallery is already pleading for a Hail Mary Pass to get them back in the game.
HFT: Instead of beating up these liquidity supplying traders, let’s honor them with their very own stock exchange. But wait -- with no retail saps to pick-off they will never get that Day 1 opening bell tick. Perfect.
XMAS 2010: As my professor friend Nick says, “Nowadays Americans are dining off of two menus – The Million Dollar and the $0.99 Cent.” And both are pissed about it.
CURRENCIES: Poor Mr. Greenback. Does someone need a hug?
HOUSING CRISIS: Price Stabilization – Are we there yet? Just a little bit more. Are we there yet? Just a little bit more. Are we there yet? Just a little bit more….
INFLATION/DEFLATION: Fed Chief Ben B. comes out swinging from his heels in defense of inflation promotion. Don’t punch yourself out as this one is likely to go the distance.
COMMODITIES: Corrected but still sky high; fortunately these prices are only affecting core, basic, life-sustaining necessities and sparing our electronic gadgets and plus-sized SUVs. Whew!
INSIDER TRADING: Another black eye for Hedge Funds. I estimate that makes black eye number 6,597.
INTEREST RATES: South Korea and China slowly turning up the dial to “11”. On the other hand the U.S. has removed the dial altogether. This never ends well….
NORTH KOREA: Here we go again.
Consumer confidence down, LiveLeak.com - Loonie closes above U.S. dollar … dollar for first time closes below parity on Canadian loonie … hey, hey, hey … 'Huge' stock decline — but not yet MarketWatch - Commentary: Adens … ‘mega trend’ looks grim … The Adens expect a hyperinflationary collapse … ‘ Oh come on! Manipulated dollar decline with inflated earnings, stock prices thereby, etc., … we’ve seen this all before … the last few crashes … Jobless rate jumps to 9.8% as hiring slows (Washington Post) [ The reality is not a mystery! The nation’s been thrown under the bus for the greater good (wealth) of the very few (frauds on wall street, etc.); wall street giving out record bonuses from their accomplished fraud (with no-recession b.s. bernanke help) of $144 BILLION: Come on! This is gettin’ even more downright ridiculous (if that’s even possible)! Pending home foreclosure / distress sales up, oil prices (and oil stocks) up, debased dollar down, plus a little familiar ‘better than expected’ thrown in along with prospects of a ‘no-recession bernanke’ market-frothing bull session on 60 minutes and, voila, suckers’ rally into the close to keep the suckers suckered! What’s good for the frauds on wall street is bad for just about everyone else which includes the vast majority of people and businesses, domestically and globally, as current dollar manipulation / debasement ultimately results in higher costs and loss of purchasing power (ie., oil, etc.). Clearly, this is one of those fraudulent wealth transfers to the frauds on wall street et als which will ultimately be paid for by those who least are in a position to afford it, courtesy of the ever more worthless Weimar dollar, etc., inflating earnings, eps, lowering p/e multiples, etc., see infra. This is an especially great time to sell / take profits while you can since there's much worse to come! Previous: Rosy numbers on consumer sentiment, unemployment (far better than private forecasts) from the government prior to the holiday so-called ‘shop till you drop’? How can anyone believe anything they say? Najerian interviewed by Motek chimes in with the reason for good retail cheer; viz., people have stopped paying their mortgages and are using the funds to purchase retail goods; while Davidowitz adds that with record numbers of americans on food stamps, real unemployment at 17+, and wall street giving out record bonuses from their accomplished fraud (with no-recession b.s. bernanke help) of $144 BILLION … the high end stores / jewelers will do well … daaaaah! And, with insiders and wall street frauds selling into the bubble as preceded last crash, this is an especially great opportunity to sell / take profits! Suckers’ rally on light volume, full moon, and government complicity (false data / reports) to keep suckers suckered (easy for the wall street frauds to do with just a mouse click / push of the button – and, they know all those technical trade lines that are easy to program in this current phase of the scam/fraud with the debased dollar). Keep in mind, the totally mindless blather from the ‘cottage industries’ of and fraudulent wall street itself in talking up lower P/E multiples when the same is a direct result of the debasement of the dollar and the consequent manipulation / translation (not real, see Davis, infra) which preceded the financial crisis / last crash. Unemployment, trade, deficit, etc., numbers continue decidedly worse than expected along with other negative data (and in the ‘wrong direction’, that spin accorded ‘down but not as bad as before’ b*** s*** ) yet the market has rallied like no tomorrow with used home foreclosure / distressed sales, though abated owing to ‘foreclosuregate’, the other ‘heralded’ good news. Moreover, the dumbo lemmings of Europe have jumped on the fraudulent defacto bankrupt american crazy train propelled to the precipice also as if no tomorrow. This is about keeping the suckers sucked in with the help of a market-frothing pre-election debased dollar for favorable currency translation and paper (but not real when measured in, ie., gold, etc.) profits which preceded the last crisis, inflating a bubble as in the last crisis to facilitate the churn-and-earn, particularly with computerized (and high frequency) trades and which commissions they’ll get again on the way down. There is nothing to support these overbought stock prices, fundamentally or otherwise. These are desperate criminals ‘at work’. Even wall street shill, the senile Buffett is saying we’re still in a recession (depression) [ Davis: ‘… all profits are inflated by 10% (from falling, debased dollar) and that 10% is the E that gets divided from the P and gives us a much better price/multiple to hang our hats on and that gets investors to BUYBUYBUY …’ The bull market that never was / were beyond wall street b.s. when measured in gold ] This is a great opportunity to sell / take profits (these lower dollar, hyperinflationary currency manipulations / translations to froth paper stocks will end quite badly as in last crash)! This is a global depression. This is a secular bear market in a global depression. The past up moves were manipulated bull (s***) cycles (at best) in a secular bear market. This has been a typically manipulated bubble as has preceded the prior crashes with great regularity that the wall street frauds and insiders commission and sell into. This is a typical wall street ‘programmed computerized high-frequency churn and earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud as in prior crashes ( widely reported, high-frequency trading routinely accounts for more than 50% of daily U.S. equity trading volume and regularly approaches 70%. )’. This national decline, economic and otherwise, will not end until justice is served and the wall street frauds et als are criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed.The Stock Market's Long Decline Has Begun Smith ]
National / World
Rand Paul: Reaction To Arizona Shooting Manufactured Out Of Rahm Emanuel Playbook Steve Watson | A serious crisis should never be allowed to go to waste.
The Tea Party Deception Paul Joseph Watson | Political scientist Joel Skousen lifts the lid on the hidden power that controls both parties.
Oklahoma Homeland Security’s Says ‘Controversial Debate’ Suspicious Behavior Jason Douglass | Oklahoma Office of Homeland Security has started a new initiative ‘Red Dirt Ready’ to induct neighbors into a neighborhood spy program.
Attempt by Obama Operatives to Turn Memorial Into Political Rally Backfires Kurt Nimmo | The creepy zombie-like Obama supporters we endured during the election returned in force and completely overshadowed any solemnity intended for the dead.
‘Stop. Think. Connect’ DHS Announces New Fear Agenda Jason Douglass | Cyber Security Coordinator announces a new PSA video challenge from Department of Homeland Security for the ‘Stop. Think. Connect’ campaign.
Rand Paul: Reaction To Arizona Shooting Manufactured Out Of Rahm Emanuel Playbook Kentucky Senator Rand Paul has hit out at politicians and those in the media that have attempted to use the tragic shooting in Arizona as a political point scoring exercise.
See Something, Say Something: Loughner Bought Bullets at Walmart In December of last year, DHS boss Janet Napolitano announced a government program with the participation of the slave goods trader Walmart to report terrorists and other miscreants.
Attempt by Obama Operatives to Turn Memorial Into Political Rally Backfires On Wednesday night in Tucson, Arizona, Obama and the Democrats disrespected the dead and turned a memorial into a cheap and tawdry political rally for the re-election campaign of Barry Obama.
Third gun control bill proposed since Tucson shootings High-profile gun violence has historically renewed legislative interest in the cause of gun control, and the shootings of twenty people in Tucson, Arizona is no exception — only this time, the measures face steeper hurdles than before.
The Tea Party Deception Joel Skousen, editor of World Affairs Brief, was the chairman of the Conservative National Committee in the 1980′s. In this exclusive video interview for Prison Planet.tv members, Skousen talks about the hidden power structure that controls politicians of both parties from behind the scenes, the nature of the manipulated press, the reality behind the tea party, and the ongoing conspiracy to create a one world dictatorship.
Political Hacks Still Seek To Exploit Shootings Before Bodies Are Buried Even a broken clock is right twice a day, and just for a change President Obama got was correct in his speech last night when he said that people should stop exploiting the Tucson tragedy as a political opportunity to point the finger.
New Jersey Congressman Calls for Federal Reserve Audit [ They should audit corrupt, mob infested jersey as well. ] Recently while visiting Washington D.C., members of the South New Jersey Tyranny Response Team had the opportunity to interview the Congressman for New Jersey’s 2nd District, Frank A. LoBiondo.
Housing Slump Worse than the Great Depression The Zillow Home Value Index has now fallen 26% since its peak in June 2006. That’s more than the 25.9% decline in the Depression-era years between 1928 and 1933.
Mexico drug wars have killed 35,000 people in four years A total of 34,612 people have died in drug-related killings in Mexico in the four years since President Felipe Calderón declared an offensive against cartels shortly after taking office, officials said tonight.
Riots rage in Chile as gas price hike fuels flames of anger Riots are raging in southern Chile with two women killed and four others injured. Protesters are out in anger at gas price increases, which are reportedly due to troubles experienced by the state-owned petroleum company. 21 people have been arrested. With gas one of the country’s main imports, the price rise counters promises made by the country’s President Pinera.
US military chief predicts ‘more violence’ in Afghanistan in 2011 The top US military officer said Wednesday he sees an increase in bloodshed in Afghanistan as allied forces step up their offensive against the Taliban.
New Chinese arms aimed at US: military chief China’s new weapons programs, including the J-20 stealth aircraft, appear to be directed against the UnitedStates, the highest-ranking USmilitary officer said Wednesday.
Drudgereport: Jobless Claims Jump, Wholesale Food Costs Surge...
EYES ON OPEC AS OIL NEARS $100
House set to vote on healthcare repeal...
Tunisian Rioters Overwhelm Police Near Capital...
FT: What chance a US default?
S&P, MOODY'S Warn On Credit Rating...
CITI still too big after 'ad hoc' bailout...
WILL THE FED NEED A BAILOUT?
Banks repossess 1 million homes in 2010...
May Jump 20% in 2011...
Biden arrives in Baghdad 'to celebrate'... Lobotomy Joe’s arrival as Violence kills 3, wounds 14...
Wrestling Coach Put on Leave for Insulting Obama, Challenging Him to Fight...
Politician Wants License Plates -- For Bikes…
School Hands Out Misdemeanor Tickets To Elementary School Students... [Data shows the tickets can cost a family as much as $500. ]
81-Year-Old Woman Bodyslammed, Mugged Inside NYC Subway Station -- By Another Woman...
CHICAGOLAND: Gang rape of girl, 14, recorded on cellphone...
Contours of a large and lasting American presence in Iraq starting to take shape (Washington Post) [ Wow! Sounds like a plan … though hardly embraced by all; viz; the vast majorities in Iraq, Afghanistan, and defacto bankrupt america are against this with dire prospective consequences to follow. U.S. Promises to be in Afghanistan Beyond 2014 [ Defacto bankrupt america can afford it! Riiiiight! Sounds like a plan … for enhanced heroin production, war profiteering, etc., benefiting the few to the detriment of the many. ]New York Times | Biden met with Karzai and promised a lasting American commitment to the country well beyond 2014, when NATO forces are scheduled to turn over security of the nation to Afghan forces. ]
Treasury secretary urges China to accelerate currency reform (Washington Post) [ Riiiiight! Well that sounds like something the Chinese will buy into, coming from defacto bankrupt america … sounds like a plan … for fantasyland! ] Beijing’s policy is hampering U.S. competitiveness and harming the Chinese economy, Geithner says.
Economic recovery is on track (Washington Post) [ What? That (as per fed) no-recession recession (depression) thing’s over. Certainly for the frauds on wall street who caused the thing in the first place that’s true with the new bubble and at what now insurmountable cost (record $14 trillion plus debt – Faber: US will be using 30% of total tax revenues just to pay interest on the national debt within a few years … see, infra … )Fed's beige book reports gains in manufacturing and retail sectors. Housing industry remains weak.
E.U. seeks to expand bailout fund to calm markets (Washington Post) [Nyaradi The Sick Man Tries to Save the Terminally Ill ( I can’t recall the specific phrase, but applied here it goes something like this, ‘Japan with a debt to GDP ratio of 200% is going to save Europe, but who’s going to save Japan’. Let’s get real here as the u.s. house-building with decks, as in Titanics and reshuffled / rearranged deck chairs, of cards, as in ‘houses of cards’, becomes insanely ubiquitous worldwide and will systemically (now globally) end quite badly. This is an especially great opportunity to sell / take profits since there is much, much worse to come. ) Nyaradi ‘It was a quiet day yesterday for ETFs and stocks in world markets as most exchange traded funds recovered recent losses amid reduced tensions in Europe.Incredibly, Japan’s intent to buy European bonds was the catalyst for the more positive atmosphere in Europe, and as the title of this article suggests, this is truly the sick man trying to save the terminally ill…see infra… ’ ] Nations expand the scope of the euro-zone bailout fund, saying more support is necessary as investors worry about the prospects of Portugal and Spain.
Go to following pages for above links:
http://www.albertpeia.com/currentopics2ndqtr10108.htm
http://www.albertpeia.com
http://www.albertpeia.com/alresume.htm
http://www.albertpeia.com/wallstreetlunacy2ndqtr10108.htm
You may post a comment on my blog on any topic: http://alpeiablog.blogspot.com
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