Business / Economic / Financial

[ This link to a somewhat more cumulative blog posts page will precede current days news since most all topics remain current in terms of impact and longer-term effect and can be searched by topical index term more easily. The same is provided since the blog site http://alpeiablog.blogspot.com has just been censored as to size by google which is typical for google as nsa / cia / gov’t shill as more are becoming aware of. The same is true for microsoft, another co. that’s seen their best days and relies on the government to maintain their monopoly. Up to now the better page http://www.scribd.com/alpeia is provided for ease of formatting and clarity thereby while the Washington Post page is the real deal but without formatting http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/community/mypost/index.html?plckPersonaPage=PersonaComments&plckUserId=alpeia&newspaperUserId=alpeia . The following is the cumulative archive of blog posts / topics for 2010 as the new year starts anew: http://albertpeia.com/December312010postsarchive.htm or PDF formatted version
http://albertpeia.com/December312010postsarchive.pdf ]

The TV Column: Charlie Sheen keeps talking; CBS gets in on the conversation (Washington Post) [Wobama says daffy gaddafi’s time is up, got to go. The same can be said of wobama et als and his fraudulently failed presidency. Sheen On Obama: “A Coward In a Cheap Suit” [ I think Sheen to be too gentle in his criticism of wobama (Some might reflexively, defensively allege drugs (prescription or otherwise) or any number of the varied personality disorders so prevalent in america … ‘fuzzy, California laid back thinking’, ‘whatever’… Who knows? ) But, that said, wobama’s far worse than just a ‘coward in a cheap suit’. Indeed, Wobama’s a total fraud having been elected under false pretenses; viz., his total, unequivocal, and unfulfilled b* s* (those campaign promises) ! Moreover, there has been some persuasive documentation questioning wobama’s citizenship / birthplace placing his eligibility to even hold the office of president in question. Drudgereport: `UPDATE: Huckabee claims Obama grew up in Kenya...` The Obama Nation, by Jerome Corsi Rezko was corrupt, and supported Obama in many campaigns as well as in Obama buying his home -- and therefore, according to Corsi, Obama is corrupt by ...www.ontheissues.org/Obama_Nation.htm ] Amidst the controversy of his wild interview on the Alex Jones Show yesterday, actor Charlie Sheen wasted little time in confronting President Barack Obama on his failure to answer Sheen’s twenty questions concerning 9/11, calling Obama, “a coward in a cheap suit.” A Government Shut-down Imperils the Power of Congress Paul Craig Roberts | Congress could try to protect its loss of the power of the purse by impeaching Obama. Drudgereport: `WOBAMA 'IMPEACHMENT' WARNING...` `...to announce exploratory committee 'in 10 days'` Globalist Shill Barack Obama Asks Business Leaders For Job Creation Ideas Even As He Ships More Of Our Jobs Overseas As Part Of The New One World Economy The other day, Barack Obama summoned a group of business and labor leaders to the White House and “challenged” them to come up with some great ideas for creating more jobs inside the United States. Public confidence in Obama reaches new low (Washington Post). Six in 10 Americans lack faith in Obama and hold lower esteem for members of Congress, according to the latest Washington Post-ABC News poll. Such stats as this tend to typify scenarios as this where you break every significant campaign promise that got you elected, from endless war (ie., Afghanistan, etc.) to not prosecuting the frauds on wall street, and the growing realization of ‘typical’: Public confidence in Obama reaches new low (Washington Post) Six in 10 Americans lack faith in Obama and hold lower esteem for members of Congress, according to the latest Washington Post-ABC News poll. Such stats as this tend to typify scenarios as this where you break every significant campaign promise that got you elected, from endless war (ie., Afghanistan, etc.) to not prosecuting the frauds on wall street, and the growing realization of ‘typical’:

But still it’s ‘hands off fraudulent wall street’ to theirs, the nation’s, and the world’s detriment. Firms subpoenaed in attempt to regain Fannie, Freddie losses (Washington Post). But there’s a reason:

The following youtube video is well worth the look and explains how and why the frauds on wall street have gotten away with their devastating fraud thus far. The frauds on wall street et als should be criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed. ( `UPDATE: MORE CLAIMS OF RACE BIAS AT JUSTICE...` `CIVIL RIGHTS PANEL TO PURSUE FED PROBE IN BLACK PANTHER CASE... ‘`In emotional and personal testimony, an ex-Justice official who quit over the handling of a voter intimidation case against the New Black Panther Party accused his former employer of instructing attorneys in the civil rights division to ignore cases that involve black defendants and white victims ...’ `US v. AZ...` Cases against Wall Street lag despite Holder’s vows to target financial fraud Washington Post | Obama has promised to hold Wall Street accountable for the meltdown. ):

‘THE OBAMA DECEPTION’ http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eAaQNACwaLw&feature=PlayList&p=2EFAB57B44063742&playnext_from=PL&index=0&playnext=1 – well worth a look. [ The Obama Deception Number 1 on U.S. Google Trends ]

While boner and barton are indeed jokes / vegetables that bespeak the single-digit approval rate for congress, obama’s failure to deliver on promises with as well, endless war spending despite defacto bankruptcy of the nation and a watered down nothing financial regulation bill for talking points but little substance, make him as big a joker. This well researched / produced video tells the real story : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eAaQNACwaLw&feature=PlayList&p=2EFAB57B44063742&playnext_from=PL&index=0&playnext=1 ‘THE OBAMA DECEPTION’ – well worth the view. [ The Obama Deception Number 1 on U.S. Google Trends ]

‘The Obama Deception’ Censored A viral You Tube upload of one of Alex Jones’ most popular feature films ‘The Obama Deception’ has been censored following a spur of the moment campaign to elevate the movie’s title to the top of the major internet search engines. In light of this development, I provide an archived site version which appears to be complete (but will be compared with earlier version and replaced with same if incomplete) http://albertpeia.com/obamadeceptionhighqualityversion.flv

Then there is the well researched, produced, and informative ‘ESOTERIC AGENDA’ which explains how we’ve gotten to this forlorn point: http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-7052400717834950257# For the Same Reason I’ve Included Here a Web Site Archived FLV Version of Esoteric Agenda http://albertpeia.com/esotericagenda.flv

Cohen: Time for Arabs to reject anti-semitism (Washington Post) [ Reality check … time for israelis / jews to reject zionism and all that is entailed therein, including an alternate reality that defies credulity, rationality, and facts; such as, a self-rationalizing greed, anti-arab / anti-Christian predisposition and the ‘Oedipal Effect’ (blowback) engendered thereby. No, Johnny Carson was not anti-semitic (Fred Silverman), same for Charlie Sheen (Chuck Lorre), etc. (the list is endless inasmuch as when facts are not on their side, such specious inflammatory arguments as ‘anti-semitism’, prejudice, are a convenient subterfuge distracting from their weak position; ie., illegal nukes, war crimes, ignoring u.n. resolutions, ie., 242, 338, etc., ignoring international law. At best, no … God did not give them this land … at worst, God took the land back when they with roman muscle crucified Christ. Balfour was an arbitrary, incompetent, british joke.). ] ] Article | Tuesday will be known as the day we heard from The Receiving End of Charlie Sheen's Scorched Earth Media Tour.

Lt. Gen. John Kelly, who lost son to war, says U.S. largely unaware of sacrifice (Washington Post) [ I disagree! They are very much aware; as they stand in unemployment lines, use food stamps to get by, etc.. I hate to sound cavalier and I’m sorry that Kelly lost a son to war, but along with the multitude of civilians in the nations unlucky enough to provide a source of corporate welfare to the military industrial complex and war profiteering for the few (as warned against by President General Eisenhower), they died for nothing, for no good reason beyond the false propaganda. Six NATO troops killed in Afghanistan (Washington Post) [ Is there something wrong with the following picture? … am I missing something? … Gates's warning: Avoid land war in Asia, Middle East, and Africa Christian Science Monitor - In a speech to cadets at the United States Military Academy at West Point, Gates's message was clear: The US military services, as well as the elected and appointed civilians who send them to war, need better ways of foreseeing and preparing for ... Gates Tells US Army to Take New Approach Voice of America Warning Against Wars Like Iraq and Afghanistan New York Times [ Better said, than unsaid; but, methinks a bit late for that in light of pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt america’s consummate decline and fall! If only they had listened and not shot at the messenger … things could have been different! ]

Bernanke: Fed will respond if oil prices trigger inflation (Washington Post) [ If? Come on … don’t make me laugh! … Merk ‘…While we believe food inflation will be with us for quite some time and may contribute to an unstable world possibly for years to come, the Federal Reserve appears to be firmly in the camp of heavily discounting food inflation. The European Central Bank (ECB), in contrast, has historically taken commodity inflation more seriously than the Fed – ECB President Trichet talks about his concern over "second round effects," i.e., commodity inflation stirring inflation throughout the value chain.

The relevance of all this is that in the U.S. it’s business as usual as far as monetary policy is concerned. According to Fed Chair Bernanke, the U.S. economy must grow at a rate of at least 2.5% per annum just to keep unemployment stable, however, he has made it clear that he will pursue policies to boost growth above that level. With oil prices soaring, he is facing yet another headwind. Rather than mopping up the liquidity that, in our assessment, has contributed to global commodity inflation, he may be tempted to keep the printing press in high gear to promote economic growth.

It doesn’t really matter whether we think there is a crisis. What matters is that the Fed doesn’t think its policies are contributing to global instability and continues on its expansionary path. After all, the banks continue to sit on their money and as such, the economy is certainly not in overdrive. With the exception of social instability spreading globally, the Fed may be very much on course:

Bernanke may want a weaker dollar. Unlike his predecessor, Bernanke embraces the U.S. dollar as a monetary policy tool to boost economic growth.
Bernanke wants higher inflation. Having explicitly called for higher inflation since last August, he has since praised the progress the market has made in pricing higher than inflation expectations. The challenge with raising inflation expectations is not only that it may be difficult to lower those expectations later but that it is difficult to control where that inflation appears. Bernanke, in our assessment, needs to get home price to rise and is willing to put up with rising prices in other areas.
We often focus on housing as a reason the Fed wants to boost growth, but we can also focus on WalMart (WMT): in the 13 weeks that ended 1/29/2010, WalMart’s sales declined 1.2%. Keep in mind that unlike government statistics, WalMart’s sales are not inflation adjusted. Also keep in mind that WalMart has been expanding its produce section in recent years; the section very much exposed to food inflation. As a result, on a real basis, sales have had rather substantial declines. Given that WalMart’s sales comprise more than 10% of total U.S. retail sales, we don’t believe there is such a thing as "company specific" problems; WalMart’s problems are those of the U.S. economy.

In contrast, the rest of the world is taking steps to stem inflationary pressures. Russia is the latest country to raise interest rates, following countries ranging from Sweden to Norway, Canada to Australia and Korea to China. In the Eurozone, the pairing down of some emergency facilities (leading to a draining of liquidity; a form of monetary tightening) and recent hawkish talk suggest interest rates may be raised later this year.

This discussion should clarify that it is perfectly possible for the world to be in turmoil without the U.S. dollar being a beneficiary. The focus of this analysis was the perceived status of the U.S. dollar as a safe haven, as well as implications of food inflation; a small, but important sliver affecting the U.S. dollar.’

Gerald Celente: “There is no recovery — it’s a coverup!” Sic Semper Tyrannis | Celente argues the oil prices have been going up before the recent chaos in the Middle East. ‘…One other point brought out by Gerald Celente is the fact that the current puppet regime in the White House is “cooking the books” on the unemployment numbers and current inflation rates. They are making their own rules on how to determine inflation rates by leaving out essential information such as food and fuel prices. The same is being done with White House unemployment numbers by simply leaving out those who have given up looking for jobs, as well as other deceptive “carnie” tricks (in reference to White House spokesperson Carnie) in which he compares the administration to a traveling carnival act.

In closing, Celente states:

“… There is no recovery, it’s a coverup. It’s only being boosted by these low interest rates, which again, when inflation skyrockets- they’re gonna have to raise them …‘

Jim Rogers: “Saudi Arabia Is Lying About Being Able To Increase Its Oil Production” Jim Rogers joins Zero Hedge in being highly skeptical about just how credible Saudi’s call for a 1MM + boost in its oil supply is: “Saudi Arabia has been lying about the reserves for decades. Saudi Arabia the last two times said they are going to increase production and they couldn’t increase production. Don’t fall for that. ] Federal Reserve chairman says he does not expect a major impact on consumer prices.

House Republicans press SEC on official's ties to Madoff (Washington Post) [ The ultimate subterfuge. Mr. small potatoes madoff the focus of so much influence … yet he’s in jail … and the only one … Boy, did mary shapiro become total b*** s*** fast … the current shibboleth of capital hill / all 3 branches of pervasively corrupt u.s. government … joining the others: “The Financial Industry Has Become So Politically Powerful That It Is Able To Inhibit the Normal Process of Justice And Law Enforcement” The economy cannot stabilize unless fraud is prosecuted. But the folks in D.C. seem determined to turn a blind eye to Wall Street shenanigans, and is now moving to defund the enforcement agencies like the SEC and CFTC. Market Crash 2011: It Will Hit by Christmas Farrell, MarketWatch SAN LUIS OBISPO, Calif. (MarketWatch) — ‘Politicians lie. Bankers lie. Yes, they’re liars. But they’re not bad, it’s in their genes, inherited. Their brains are wired that way, warn scientists. Like addicts, they can’t help themselves. They want to sell stuff, get rich…’

‘INSIDE JOB’ Ferguson wins Oscar for Documentary on the unprosecuted massive extant fraud in the (many) TRILLIONS by the frauds on wall street ( and declares with oscar in hand that not one high level wall street exec has been prosecuted … despite ‘earning’ billiions from the fraud ), the commentator / experts recommend getting rid of the corrupt eric holder ( now what do holder and wobama have in common … is it wall street money ………… is it a proclivity for jive-talking / b*** s*** ………all of the above, some of the above ……….. or is it something else …… here’s a hint - UPDATE: MORE CLAIMS OF RACE BIAS AT JUSTICE... CIVIL RIGHTS PANEL TO PURSUE FED PROBE IN BLACK PANTHER CASE... ‘In emotional and personal testimony, an ex-Justice official who quit over the handling of a voter intimidation case against the New Black Panther Party accused his former employer of instructing attorneys in the civil rights division to ignore cases that involve black defendants and white victims ...’ US v. AZ... Cases against Wall Street lag despite Holder’s vows to target financial fraud Washington Post | Obama has promised to hold Wall Street accountable for the meltdown. ) (see this film, I strongly recommend the complete documentary – the following is a preview/summary) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ffHFjlqIzKE&feature=related

[Here’s an archived version

’Inside Job’ New Documentary Exposes Wall Street Fraud And How Banksters Continue To Steal Our Money

Web site Link / Path to archived file: http://www.albertpeia.com/insidejob.flv [45mb ]

http://www.albertpeia.com/insidejob.mp4 [ 65mb ] ]

] House Republicans ramp up pressure on SEC Chairman Mary Schapiro.

Locked in standoff, Gaddafi foes debate foreign airstrikes Opposition leaders consider requesting foreign intervention (Washington Post) [ Six NATO troops killed in Afghanistan (Washington Post) [ Is there something wrong with the following picture? … am I missing something? … Gates's warning: Avoid land war in Asia, Middle East, and Africa Christian Science Monitor - In a speech to cadets at the United States Military Academy at West Point, Gates's message was clear: The US military services, as well as the elected and appointed civilians who send them to war, need better ways of foreseeing and preparing for ... Gates Tells US Army to Take New Approach Voice of America Warning Against Wars Like Iraq and Afghanistan New York Times ( Better said, than unsaid; but, methinks a bit late for that in light of pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt america’s consummate decline and fall! If only they had listened and not shot at the messenger … things could have been different! )

DÉJÀ VU ALL OVER AGAIN? WHERE’S YOGI WHEN YOU NEED HIM TO EXPLAIN THIS INSANITY:
Chavez: U.S. distorting situation in Libya ‘to justify an invasion’ CNN | Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez claims U.S. criticism of Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi has a clear aim: military invasion.

US tightens military grip on Gaddafi The Guardian | The west is edging towards a possible military confrontation with Muammar Gaddafi’s regime.

Obama Encircles US War Machine Around Libya Paul Joseph Watson | Administration readies to exploit humanitarian crisis to control Africa’s largest oil producer.

Most Americans Strongly Oppose U.S. Military Action in Libya According to Rasmussen, a large majority of Americans agree with the common sense of George Washington. During his farewell address, the first president of the United States said the nation should beware of foreign entanglements. ] Issue takes on increasing urgency amid realization that rebels cannot continue to match the weaponry and firepower of forces loyal to Gaddafi.

[ (2-26-11) Let me state for the record here that my computer has been under constant viral, hack attack, paralleling prior such foolish, paranoid actions and let me reiterate: They will be sorry and I won’t forget it! ]

March 2011 Economic Forecast: GDP Is Disconnected From the Real Economy - Hansen ‘Last week, the second estimate of 4Q2010 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was issued. It showed a rather paltry 2.8% economic growth.

The way GDP is designed – it is not a true measure of an advanced economy. It is designed to measure economic growth of an emerging economy. An advanced economy’s growth cannot be measured necessarily by measurements of brick and mortar or investment.

This kind of approach also leaves open too many questions relative to population growth and methodology in determining change in dollar value (analysis here).

The question really is a definition of an economy. My colleague Derryl put it succinctly in "Profits for a Few Can Not Replace Real Jobs:"

"The people" need to work to earn a living. That’s called "having an economy."

An economy is the sum of trading work and goods between all the people. Modern economies use money for this trade. GDP measures the "productive" use of money. GDP measures less than half of all money flows. Econintersect believes GDP does not properly measure "productive" use of money.

Economists are saying the economy has fully recovered from the Great Recession – yet Main Street remains in a depression. The reason comes from GDP itself. Simply isolating the goods and services Joe Sixpack from GDP, the economy is no where near recovered.

[chart]

(Click to enlarge)

You see, GDP takes credit for exports and debits imports. Yet Joe Sixpack is trading what he earns for products and services. To see the economy of Joe Sixpack, you have to look at the sum of what he is trading.

[chart]

(Click to enlarge)

Go back and review the economic forecasts Econintersect made for October, November and December. We predicted the real economy – the economy of Joe Sixpack was stalling.

Econintersect uses a forward looking economic indicator which uses non-monetary pulse points that have a general – not specific correlation with Gross Domestic Product. These pulse points are geared to anticipate consumer and industrial income / spending for 30 to 60 days after the indicator is issued.

Econintersect counts units of things other then money – and is specifically designed to measure Main Street and Joe Sixpack’s world.

March 2011 Economic Forecast

The "real" economy – the economy of Joe Sixpack continues to expand. The strength of this growth is considered moderate with positive underlying trend lines. Putting this into perspective – the economy is likely improving on a per capita basis.

[chart]

(Click to enlarge)

There are "buts" to this forecast.

In last month’s forecast, we warned of a black swan possibility of an economic reversal due to the start of unrest in oil producing countries. This is no longer a black swan – but a known event underway – and seemingly now priced in to the economy.
Econintersect is unable to forecast employment levels using this methodology. There is little correlation between the Econintersect Economic Index (EEI) and employment since the beginning of the Great Recession.

The EEI has improved from +0.25 to +0.55.

[chart]

(Click to enlarge)

One major component of the EEI is transport related. Econintersect considers transport (truck, rail and sea container) counts a primary economic pulse point – and its trend represents underlying economic pressure.

This month, the transport portion of the EEI index continued its upward trend. This portion of the index is quite noisy as it quantifies the month-over-month (MoM) change (positive numbers indicate seasonally adjusted MoM growth, negative numbers represent seasonally adjusted MoM contraction).

[chart]

To Econintersect, transports represent the pulse of the real economy – the economy of Joe Sixpack. All of our man made surroundings, the clothes we wear and the food we eat are moved several times by transport during their processing/delivery cycles. A growing economy consumes more (and therefore transports more), a contracting economy consumes less.

Last month, we mentioned in passing – that there was anecdotal evidence that the transport sector of the index was weakening. Hard data over the last 30 days has been entirely contradictory to this.

For a complete explanation of the EEI, please see the October 2010 forecast.

Disasters Rocking the U.S. Dollar? Merk ‘From earthquakes in New Zealand to revolutions in the Middle East, natural and man-made disasters are rocking the world. We are all too often made to believe that in times of crisis there’s a flight to the U.S. dollar. However, the U.S. dollar has instead had a rocky ride of its own thus allowing the crisis-ridden Eurozone to shine. What’s going on? Is there no crisis, or has the U.S. dollar lost its appeal as a safe haven?

Over longer periods there is little correlation between the U.S. dollar and other assets. In the past two years, however, a mentality has arisen that whenever there is a crisis the U.S. dollar benefits; as the crisis abates money flows out of the U.S. dollar and once again into currencies and markets overseas that may be deemed riskier. That may well be a skewed pendulum, however, as the U.S. dollar may have a more difficult time attracting money at each subsequent crisis. Firstly, the U.S. is simply better at spending and printing money than the rest of the world; causing the balance sheet of the U.S. to deteriorate at a faster pace than that of the rest of the world. And secondly, policy makers around the world are addressing whatever the cause of the crisis may have been i.e., the "trillion-dollar" backstop provided in the Eurozone to support weaker countries. One can argue how effective such measures are, but generally speaking, the region may be safer than before measures were taken; not safe, but "safer," meaning less money may flee back to the U.S. dollar the next time a crisis flares up.

But maybe there is no crisis? Saudi Arabia may make up for any shortfall of lost Libyan oil production and Egypt and Tunisia don’t affect U.S. markets anyway. The argument we heard in early phases of the sub-prime crisis was "it’s all contained". Intelligent people in both Libya and abroad did not think the Egyptian turmoil would swamp over to Libya. After all, the standard of living – and with it, presumably social stability - in Libya is higher due to wealth created by oil. For now, the extreme volatility in the oil markets suggests that market participants beg to differ as to how all of this unfolds. If anything, that is a healthy process; it’s when everyone agrees that bubbles are created.[picture]

To understand the dynamics unfolding we have to dig a little deeper into the "it’s all contained" argument. People don’t like autocratic rule but we have argued that people may put up with oppression as long as they can feed themselves. Escalating food prices may be a key reason revolts and revolutions are happening now. (See also our analysis of Politics of Inflation.) However, U.S. policy makers generally disregard food inflation for a couple of reasons:

The U.S. economy is not very dependent on food. Yes, people need to eat but only a small portion of disposable income is spent on food in the U.S.
Food inflation in the rest of the world is really the problem of the rest of the world. Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Bernanke, when pressured on whether U.S. monetary policy exports inflation to the rest of the world, has argued that other countries have plenty of tools at their disposal to address inflationary pressures there. That is correct but in the absence of foreign policy makers heeding Bernanke’s advice, the world is less stable; $100 oil is a reminder that global instability does come home to roost.
Food inflation is temporary. There is a widely held belief that food inflation is due to special factors such as a plethora of bad crops throughout the world. However, the Financial Times writes: "The World faces a protracted bout of extremely high food prices, the US government has warned, overwhelming farmers’ ability to cool commodity markets by planting millions of additional hectares with crops."
Not only can farmers plant more, they can also farm more efficiently. Developing countries, over time, may greatly enhance the productivity of their farmland. That is correct, but let’s not forget that as the standard of living is rising in the developing world, there’s a shift towards a more protein based diet. A lot of corn will be needed to feed the cattle to produce the meat to satisfy demand.
Acknowledging these drivers, it’s still a question of whether we are merely seeing a bout of inflation, i.e. a reset of the price level or an era of continuously rising food prices. Even with little agreement on where we are headed in the medium term, most would agree that there is no such thing as continuity in agricultural commodity prices. As an example, Bloomberg reports that wheat prices fell 8.6% from February 18 until February 25.

While we believe food inflation will be with us for quite some time and may contribute to an unstable world possibly for years to come, the Federal Reserve appears to be firmly in the camp of heavily discounting food inflation. The European Central Bank (ECB), in contrast, has historically taken commodity inflation more seriously than the Fed – ECB President Trichet talks about his concern over "second round effects," i.e., commodity inflation stirring inflation throughout the value chain.

Bernanke may want a weaker dollar. Unlike his predecessor, Bernanke embraces the U.S. dollar as a monetary policy tool to boost economic growth.
Bernanke wants higher inflation. Having explicitly called for higher inflation since last August, he has since praised the progress the market has made in pricing higher than inflation expectations. The challenge with raising inflation expectations is not only that it may be difficult to lower those expectations later but that it is difficult to control where that inflation appears. Bernanke, in our assessment, needs to get home price to rise and is willing to put up with rising prices in other areas.
We often focus on housing as a reason the Fed wants to boost growth, but we can also focus on WalMart (WMT): in the 13 weeks that ended 1/29/2010, WalMart’s sales declined 1.2%. Keep in mind that unlike government statistics, WalMart’s sales are not inflation adjusted. Also keep in mind that WalMart has been expanding its produce section in recent years; the section very much exposed to food inflation. As a result, on a real basis, sales have had rather substantial declines. Given that WalMart’s sales comprise more than 10% of total U.S. retail sales, we don’t believe there is such a thing as "company specific" problems; WalMart’s problems are those of the U.S. economy.

Post Meltdown Economy Looks More Like a Pre Meltdown Economy Maierhofer ‘Based purely on the stock market, the economy should be rockin' and rollin' but while the market's performance has been stellar, the economy is flat.

Will stocks catch up with the economy or the economy with stocks?

Just how strong is the market? The SPDR S&P MidCap 400 ETF (NYSEArca: MDY - News) is trading at an all-time high, the Nasdaq-100 (Nasdaq: QQQQ - News) has surpassed its 2007 watermark, the Russell 2000 (NYSEArca: IWM - News) is closing in on its all-time high, the S&P 500 (SNP: ^GSPC) has doubled since March 2009, and the Dow (DJI: ^DJI) is viewed as the ultra safe haven in a world of turmoil.

How strong is the economy? Real estate (NYSEArca: IYR - News), the biggest wealth builder/destroyer in the country is still weak. The Standard & Poor's Case-Shiller Home Price Index has dropped to the lowest level in nearly a decade. As the Home Price Index has fallen below March 2009 levels, residential REIT stocks (NYSEArca: REZ - News) have nearly tripled since then.

Another huge contributor to a healthy economy - unemployment - shows signs of improvements at a peripheral glance but continues to lag significantly if examined beyond the rosy headline numbers. To wit, if it wasn't for the labor force sliding to a near 30-year low, the headline unemployment number would be around 12% while the real unemployment would be around 20%.

Based on a 11-line surface analysis, stocks and the economy are out of sync. To see whether stocks will catch up with the economy or vice versa, we'll need to slice beneath the service and examine the very foundation of our economy.

Multi-decade Economic Trend

Unnoticed by Wall Street, the economy has been shifting gears, and has gone from acceleration mode to coasting mode. How so?

A few decades ago, sweat-trenched U.S. manufacturing facilities were the most fertile, growth-producing environment on the planet. This growth was fueled by 'Made in America' products. The growth was organic and it was real.

When taking a closer look at the economy over the past 70 years, we see two distinct growth periods. Phase 1 lasted from 1947 - 1966 and phase 2 stretched from 1975 - 2000.

Throughout phase 1, GDP averaged 4.18% while unemployment was low. GDP during phase 2 averaged 3.40% with unemployment inching up. [chart]

GE, a company that endured though both phases, provides important clues about the difference between both phases. Up until the end of phase 1, GE was known for manufacturing quality products like light bulbs, refrigerators, jet engines, and aircraft super chargers. GE's slogan was 'We bring good things to life.'

In the second phase, GE ventured into television and high finance. GE Capital, GE Commercial Finance, GE Money, GE Consumer Finance and NBC Universal contributed an ever-growing slice of GE's profit pie.

GE's focus shifted from manufacturing to financial engineering. If GE didn't build a product it would finance the consumer's purchase of a competitor's product. It was just appropriate that GE's slogan was changed to 'Imagination at work.'

The 'New Normal' - New but not Normal

The concept of making money by using money, encouraged by the Fed's interest rate policy, lacked substance and sustainability. The 2000 tech (NYSEArca: XLK - News) crash was more pronounced than what we've seen from the decades before. The real estate boom was as gigantic as its subsequent bust.

The post-2007 financial crisis further highlighted the dangers of an economy low on manufacturing but rich on leverage, accounting tricks, and financial engineering. No wonder the average GDP for the 2001 - 2010 period - dubbed the lost decade - dropped to 1.71%.

But amnesia or selective memory loss, usually triggered by rising prices, is not new to investors. The more stocks rally, the more excited investors become, the more dangerous the stock market gets.

Building an Air Castle?

The post meltdown economy has become a launching pad for the new economy and new key players. Facebook and Twitter are Wall Street's new darlings. Investors can't wait to get their hands on the upcoming IPOs.

According to Wall Street valuations, Facebook is worth as much as Home Depot or Boeing. Home Depot employs 306,000 workers, Boeing 154,000. Facebook sends paychecks to about 1,000 lucky individuals.

A happy go lucky investor looks at the new economy and says 'Wow, that's just marvelous.' A skeptical mind looks at it and wonders 'How long before that blows up in my face?'

Simple Math

As the economy is weakening, the Fed's role in providing sufficient liquidity to keep a faux system running is ever increasing. Stock market tops and bottoms have become more extreme, and the boom-bust cycle is shorter than ever before.

An 80-year trend line that has contained the Dow Jones for much of the 20th century provides an interesting technical reference to this discussion. On February 18, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter highlighted this trend line, which runs through Dow 12,400.

Interestingly that very day, the Dow rallied to 12,391 before reversing 300 points lower. Perhaps the tug of war between the economy and stock market has entered a pivotal juncture.

Bullish investors will quote the third presidential election year, a willing Federal Reserve, positive momentum, and cash on the sidelines as reasons for higher stock prices.

Bearish investors can point to extreme sentiment readings, bearish divergences, valuations, and bad fundamentals as culprits for lower prices ahead.

Slice & Dice but Watch your Finger

However you slice and dice it, the market is treacherous and can make you rich or strip you of your wealth faster than at any other time in history.

One way to limit risk and maximize opportunity is to pay attention to trend lines such as the one mentioned above. The market draws trend lines and creates important support and resistance levels. If the market speaks, it behooves us to listen.

A break below support is as bearish as a thrust above resistance is bullish. Being unaware of crucial support/resistance level is like driving down a busy road without paying attention to red or green traffic lights.’

Stocks Close at Day's Lows - Midnight Trader ‘4:36 PM, Mar 1, 2011 --

NYSE down 122.70 (-1.5%) to 8,315.85
DJIA down 168.40 (-1.4%) to 12,058
S&P 500 down 20.9 (-1.6%) to 1,306
Nasdaq down 44.86 (-1.6%) to 2,737

GLOBAL SENTIMENT

Hang Seng up 0.25%
Nikkei up 1.22%
FTSE down 0.97%

UPSIDE MOVERS
(+) AZO beats with earnings.
(+) SONS continues sharp evening gain scored after earnings beat.
(+) BSX upgraded.
(+) TECD beats with results, sets buyback.
(-) GERN reports positive results for preclinical study of GRNCM1.
(-) FRX gets FDA approval for Daliresp.
(+) NVAX inks license pact with LG Life Sciences.

DOWNSIDE MOVERS
(-) BYD misses sales estimates.
(-) FDP misses with Q4 results.
(-) YOKU reports wider-than-expected loss.
(-) LVS down despite analyst upgrade.

MARKET DIRECTION
Stock averages closed down over 1% and near the bottom of the day's range after logging solid February results, the third straight month for gains. Revived Middle East and North Africa concerns sent oil higher and stocks lower. Defensive sectors like utilities and healthcare gained.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told the Senate Banking Committee that inflation risk remains low, but acknowledged the potential for headline risk to sentiment due to rising commodity prices. Bernanke said the recent surge in oil prices was unlikely to derail the economy though could have some impact if they remained elevated for a lengthy period. Still, Wall Street was keeping close watch on the developments in the region, worried that turmoil could hit Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter.

Light, sweet crude oil for April delivery finished up $2.66, or 2.7%, at $99.63 a barrel. In other energy futures, heating oil was down 0.17% to $2.92 a gallon while natural gas was up 0.9% to $4.04 per million British thermal units.

Meanwhile, gold futures finished higher on renewed safe-haven buying. Gold for April delivery finished up $21.30 to $1,431.20 an ounce. In other metal futures, silver was up 1.8% to $34.43 a troy ounce while copper traded up 0.3% to $4.49.

Wall Street, which showed pre-market signs of a strong start to March trading, found little traction despite upbeat economic data. The U.S. manufacturing sector grew in February at its fastest rate since May 2004, which initially helped put a floor under stock prices. The Institute for Supply Management reported its manufacturing gauge increased to 61.4 in February from 60.8 in January. Readings over 50 indicate that more manufacturers are expanding instead of shrinking.

In company news:

Shares of Goldman Sachs (GS) fell after saying it estimated its "reasonable possible" losses from legal cases over sour investments could be as much as $3.4 billion, Bloomberg reports. The estimate was disclosed in the firm's annual 10-K filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Separately, the SEC said that it charged former Goldman director Rajat Gupta for allegedly sending inside information to hedge fund tycoon Raj Rajaratnam, MarketWatch reported.

Google (GOOG) shares are down after Bloomberg reported that the Internet search giant is opening new offices in Latin America and raising staffing by half to capitalize on the growth in the region. Revenue from the region rose 80% last year, the report said, citing company Vice President Dennis Woodside.

Novavax, Inc. (NVAX) announced an agreement to license its proprietary, recombinant virus-like-particle (VLP) vaccine technology to LG Life Sciences, Ltd. (LGLS). Under the agreement, LGLS receives an exclusive license to manufacture, develop and commercialize influenza vaccines using Novavax's recombinant VLP technology in South Korea. LGLS also receives a non-exclusive license to manufacture, develop and commercialize influenza VLP vaccines in certain emerging market countries.

Geron (GERN) reported that its preclinical study data showed positive effects of GRNCM1, GERN's cardiomyocyte product derived from human embryonic stem cells (hESCs), in a small animal model of acute heart damage. The results suggest that GRNCM1 positively affects cardiac function through several mechanisms, thus increasing cardiac output and decreasing arrhythmias in the acute infarct setting.

CVS Caremark (CVS) announced today that Larry J. Merlo has assumed the role of Chief Executive Officer. Merlo, now President and Chief Executive Officer of CVS Caremark, succeeds Thomas M. Ryan who will remain Non-Executive Chairman until his retirement at the company's Annual Meeting of Shareholders in May of 2011. Merlo, a pharmacist by training with over 30 years in pharmacy health, joined CVS/pharmacy in 1990 through the company's acquisition of Peoples Drug.

Mad Catz Interactive, Inc. (MCZ) is up on the back of its agreement with Electronic Arts, Inc. (ERTS) to produce branded PC and console videogame accessories based on "The Sims" franchise. The agreement grants Mad Catz non-exclusive rights to produce and market a wide range of videogame accessories for PC, Microsoft Xbox 360 video game and entertainment system, Sony PlayStation 3 computer entertainment system, Wii, Nintendo DS and Nintendo 3DS systems.

In earnings news:

--ReneSola (SOL) reports Q4 revenue of $386.4 million, better than the analyst consensus of $366 million on Thomson Reuters. Earnings per ADS were $0.70, vs. expectations of $0.69.

--AutoZone (AZO) reports Q2 EPS of $3.34, better than the Street view of $3.06 per share on Thomson Reuters. Sales were $1.7 billion, ahead of the analyst consensus of $1.63 billion.

--Tech Data (TECD) says Q4 sales were $7.1172 billion, better than the Thomson Reuters mean for $6.87 billion. It earned $1.63 per share, above forecasts for $1.43. Its Board approved a share repurchase program for up to $100 million.’

Bernanke Cautious on Economic Growth as Oil Prices Rise New York Times | Fed chief again defended the Fed’s large and unprecedented stimulus program.

Prepare for an Economic Meltdown Matt Towery | For a truly troublesome economic cocktail, throw in the instability in the Arab world.

Bernanke warns on oil price ‘threat’ Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke on Tuesday warned a “sustained” rise in oil prices could threaten US growth and spark dangerous price rises, as he eyed turmoil in Libya.

CNBC On The Case For $130 Silver Nothing new for regulars here. Yet the fact that CNBC, following Cramer’s endorsement of gold, is now apparently pushing silver on retail is very troubling.

China’s holdings of US debt larger than reported China’s holdings of US bonds reached $1.16 trillion at the end of December, almost $270 billion more than previously estimated, new data showed Monday.

BOB PRECHTER: We're Still In A Massive Bear Market And Stocks Will Crash To New Lows Blodget ‘Investors have gotten wildly bullish of late, as the bull market that started in early 2009 keeps driving stocks to new highs. But the pigs are about to get slaughtered, says Bob Prechter, president of Elliott Wave International and editor of the Elliott Wave Theorist. Prechter still thinks the new bull market is just a cyclical "retracement" of some of the bear market losses that we've had since the market crashed in 2008. Prechter expected this retracement to drive stocks 50% above the market lows, but stocks have since soared 30% higher than than he expected. So when the day of reckoning comes, Prechter thinks, it will be even more startling. And Prechter still thinks that stocks will eventually crash to new bear-market lows (read: below 6,800 on the DOW). What makes Prechter think this day of reckoning may come sooner rather than later? Sentiment indicators and other technical analysis. Investor bullishness has now gotten so extreme, Prechter says, that it has exceeded the levels in 2008 before the market crashed. Investors could still get even more bullish, of course, but eventually they'll pay for this optimism. And Prechter's not just bearish on stocks: He thinks oil, silver, and other commodities are absurdly overvalued, too. The only thing he's bullish on is the dollar. And lest he be dismissed as a perma-bear, Bob Prechter is quick to add that he hopes there will come a day when he can come on the show and tell everyone that stocks are finally so crushed and hated that it's a historic opportunity to buy them. When will that be? Stay tuned...’

Looking Like A Good Time To Sell Into Strength - Harding ‘Many important global stock markets, including China, Brazil, India and Hong Kong, have been in fairly significant corrections since November, down between 12% and 17%. Their major concerns have been rising inflation and the resulting monetary tightening by their central banks to combat the inflationary pressures...So was this week’s stumble the beginning of a more serious correction? The events and reports this week did provide more evidence that the stock market may be ahead of reality regarding prospects for the economy, and therefore corporate earnings, going forward, which should at least limit the market’s upside potential. Limited upside potential equals more downside risk? It might be wise to lighten up some into strength that may develop over the next few days during the ‘monthly strength period.’

Greenback Armageddon Ahead? Why the dollar is about to crash, with Damon Vickers, Nine Points Capital Management founder, and “The Day After Dollar Crash” author.

Government Promises to Cut Social Security It’s official, national austerity measures are here.

Politicians Slash Budget of Watchdog Agencies … Guaranteeing that Financial Fraud Won’t Be Investigated or Prosecuted As I noted last year, you can tell how interested Congress and the White House are in uncovering the truth by looking at how much money is actually budgeted for investigation.

Will banksters get away with it? Aljazeera | Why have the unions and leftist groups been mostly silent on these issues?

The REAL Unemployment Rate Is 22% The Daily Bail | It remains above 22% with the February update.

ECONOMIC CRISIS ARCHIVE

(3-1-11) Dow 12,058 -168 Nasdaq 2,737 -45 S&P 500 1,306 -21 [CLOSE- OIL $100.31 (-54% for year 2008) (RECORD TRADING HIGH $147.27) GAS $3.37 (reg. gas in LAND OF FRUITS AND NUTS $3.69 REG./ $3.78 MID-GRADE/ $3.88 PREM./ $4.02 DIESEL) / GOLD $1,433 (+24% for year 2009) / SILVER $34.69 (+47% for year 2009) PLATINUM $1,831 (+56% for year 2009) Metal News for the Day / DOLLAR= .72 EURO, 82 YEN, .62 POUND STERLING, ETC. (How low can you go - LOWER)/ http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/update 10 YR NOTE YIELD 3.41% …..… AP Business Highlights ...Yahoo Market Update... T. Rowe Price Weekly Recap – Stocks / Bonds / Currencies - Domestic / International This Is a Secular Bear Market and The End of Buy and Hold … and Hope MARKET MANIPULATION AND HOW THE LATEST BUBBLE-FRAUD PRE-COMING CRASH IS BEING ACCOMPLISHED 3-11-10 6 Theories On Why the Stock Market Has Rallied 3-9-10 [archived website file] Risks Lurk for ETF Investors The bull market that never was/were beyond wall street b.s. when measured in gold Property Values Projected to Fall 12% in 2010 Jan 31, 2010 The Week Ahead: Risk Is Off the Cliff; Unwind Has Begun Jan 31, 2010 01-13-10 Forecast for 2010 from Seeking Alpha Contributor THE COMING MARKET CRASH / CORRECTION 1-28-10 Maierhofer (01-15-10) 11 Clear Signs Economy Sinking Economic Black Hole 1-22-10: 20 Reasons Why The U.S. Economy Is Dying And Is Simply Not Going To Recover Current Economic / Fiscal Charts Trendsresearch.com forecast for 2009 1-7-10 Crash is coming! ‘WORST ECONOMIC COLLAPSE EVER’ Must Read Economic / Financial Data This Depression is just beginning The coming depression… thecomingdepression.net MUST READ: JEREMY GRANTHAM’S QUARTERLY UPDATE 25 January 2010 (850 on the S&P) by TPC The Next Wave of Collapse is Coming Sooner than you think Sliding Back Into the Great Depression ABSOLUTELY, ABSURDLY, RIDICULOUS! SELL / TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME!

National / World

Gold Hits New High as Tension Mounts in Middle East Kurt Nimmo | Once again, gold serves as a solid refuge for jittery investors.

Aussies Ready to Roll Out Deep Penetrating Radiation Scanners at Airports Steve Watson | Trials begin for devices that can scan your insides, deep penetrating radiation scans cause 15,000 deaths per year.

Documentary exposes fluoride truth: Industrial waste passed off as medicine Mike Adams | Water fluoridation around the world is achieved through the purchase of chemically contaminated toxic waste chemicals from China.

TSA Lies To Justify Illegal Train Station Grope-Down Paul Joseph Watson | Passengers were forced to enter train station by TSA goons who swarmed them on platform.

Will ‘Chindia’ Rule the World in 2050, or America After All? [ I include this only because it’s by Evans-Pritchard in light of his prior forthrightness in reporting what he saw (clinton years, financial crisis pre-blowout, etc.). But Citigroup and HSBC? Hardly the pictures of Nostradamus gone corporate given their track records. Evan Evans-Pritchard is out of his league here since 2050 is so optimistically close to the end (remember, decades at best), that such really matters very little. Diisclosure: I haven’t and don’t need to read the article. ] Ambrose Evans-Pritchard | Citigroup and HSBC have come up with radically different pictures of what the world will look like in 2050.

Gaddafi loyalists fail to retake territory in six-hour battle with rebels Libyan soldiers and paramilitaries loyal to Moammar Gaddafi attempted Tuesday to retake territory that has been seized by rebels, but neither side appeared to gain ground, according to accounts of the fighting from residents and officials with the opposition movement.

Report: US Special Forces Arrive In Libya US Special Forces have reportedly landed in Libya to train anti-Gaddafi rebels as a western-backed coup d’état in the oil-rich nation nears, with British and French “defense advisors” also arriving to set up training bases in the rebel-controlled eastern region of the country.

Ethics code urged for Supreme Court (Washington Post) [ Sounds like a plan! Come on! Wake up! After all, what can you expect from two guidos from ‘jersey (alito and scalia, colloquial – note that I have refrained from using what some might consider disparaging terms as w*p*, gui***s, or da***s … and let me state for the record that I truly loved and respected my grandmother who was 100% Italian/Bari,Italy and as well my grandfather/Lake Como,northern Italy with greek ancestral roots and I thereby claim standing/right to posit the criticism in light of my direct experience. ). How ‘bout starting with enforcing laws as to judges, liars, etc., within the very corrupted american illegal system; and, particularly bribes which in one form or another are rampant . I don’t know about Thomas, but I do know about alito and ‘jersey … :

October 15, 2010 (*see infra)

Steven M. Martinez, Assistant Director In Charge
Federal Bureau of Investigation, USDOJ
11000 Wilshire Blvd., Suite 1700

Los Angeles, CA 90024

Dear Sir:

I enclose herewith 3 copies of the within DVD rom autorun disk (which will open in your computer’s browser) as per your office’s request as made this day (the disk and contents have been scanned by Avast, McAfee, and Norton which I’ve installed on my computer to prevent viral attacks / infection and are without threat). I also include 1 copy of the DVD as filed with the subject court as referenced therein (which files are also included on the aforesaid 3 disks in a separate folder named ‘112208opocoan’). The (civil) RICO action (as you’re aware, the RICO Act is a criminal statute which provides a civil remedy, including treble damages and attorney fees, as an incentive for private prosecution of said claims probably owing to the fact that the USDOJ seems somewhat overwhelmed and in need of such assistance given the seriousness and prevalence of said violations of law which have a corrupting influence on the process, and which corruption is pervasive). A grievance complaint against Coan was also filed concurrently with the subject action and held in abeyance pending resolution of the action which was illegally dismissed without any supporting law and in contravention of the Order of The Honorable Robert N. Chatigny, Chief Judge, USDC, District Connecticut. The files below the horizontal rule are the referenced documents as filed. (Owing to the damage to the financial interests of both the U.S. and the District of Congresswoman Roybal-Allard, viz., Los Angeles, the Qui Tam provisions of the Federal False Claims Act probably would apply and I would absent resolution seek to refer the within to a firm with expertise in that area of the law with which I am not familiar).

The document in 5 pages under penalty of perjury I was asked to forward to the FBI office in New Haven is probably the best and most concise summary of the case RICO Summary to FBI Under Penalty of Perjury at Their Request (5 pages) [ ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf http://albertpeia.com/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf ].

The correspondence I received from the Congresswoman by way of email attachment (apparent but typical problem with my mail) along with my response thereto is included on the 3 disks as fbicorrespondencereyes.htm . With regard to the calls to the FBI’s LA and New Haven, CT offices: There was one call to the LA office and I was referred to the Long Beach, CA office where I personally met with FBI Agent Jeff Hayes to whom I gave probative evidentiary documents of the money laundering which he confirmed as indicative of same (he was transferred from said office within approximately a month of said meeting and his location was not disclosed to me upon inquiry). The matter was assigned to FBI Agent Ron Barndollar and we remained in touch for in excess of a decade until he abruptly retired (our last conversation prior to his retirement related to the case and parenthetically, Rudy Giuliani whose father I stated had been an enforcer for the mob to which he registered disbelief and requested I prove it, which I did – he served 12 years in prison, aggravated assault/manslaughter? – and no, there is no Chinese wall of separation – Andrew Maloney’s the one that prosecuted gotti).

In contradistinction to the statement in said correspondence, there is a plethora of information including evidence supporting the claims set forth in the RICO VERIFIED COMPLAINT (see infra). Such includes and as set forth in the case, inter alia,

A judgment had been entered in my favor in the case, United States District Court Case #3:93cv02065(AWT)(USDCJ Alvin Thompson), worth approximately now in excess of $300,000 remains unaccounted for and which could be used for payment to creditors, Los Angeles, etc..
Counsel Robert Sullivan on my behalf documented by way of certification upon investigation that Alan Shiff, USBCJ, had falsely stated a dismissal upon which false statement he predicated a retaliatory and spurious contempt proceeding against me causing substantial damage, and for which he sought Judicial Notice of those and related proceedings as did I in some of my filings.
The Order of Dismissal With Prejudice by Alan Shiff, USBCJ, owing to Defendant Coan’s failure to file anything whatsoever by the court’s deadline causing creditors and me substantial damages: [ Shiff Order of Dismissal With Prejudice on Coan’s Failure to File Page 1 Page 2 ]
Defendant Coan had filed an action against me to prevent me from suing him which necessitated me to fly to Connecticut for a hearing before The Honorable Robert N. Chatigny, Chief Judge, USDC, District of Connecticut, who denied Coan’s requested relief as to Coan but precluded my action against Shiff (although there is no immunity, judicial or otherwise, for criminal acts, ie., fraud connected with a case under Title 11, USC, etc.) . [ transcript in pertinent part - crossexamofcoanbypeia.pdf ]
Newly appointed judge, Maryanne Trump Barry, Donald Trump’s sister, was assigned the RICO case despite the conflict of interest in light of hundreds of thousands of dollars of illegal (drug) money being laundered through the Trump casinos by the RICO defendants, and despite my motion to recuse her which motion she heard herself and denied, and U.S. Trustee Hugh Leonard with whom I met personally refused to join or file a separate motion to recuse and not long thereafter left said office for private practice at Cole, Shotz, et als on retainer with the RICO defendants as his primary client.
Probative and evidentiary documents, affidavits, exhibits, including those turned over to FBI Agent Jeff Hayes in Long Beach, CA, had been given to Assistant U.S. Attorney Jonathan Lacey with whom I met personally at the U.S. Attorney’s Office in Newark, N.J., at which time Samuel Alito was U.S. Attorney, and went over said documents and their probative value with him. Within approximately a month thereafter upon inquiry I was told that Jonathon Lacey was no longer with the office, that the file/documents could not be located, and that there was no further information available concerning contacting him or his location. I thereupon delivered by hand, copies of said documents to the office of then U.S. Attorney Alito, addressed to him, with assurance they would go directly to him. In addition to being inept [ I looked in on the one mob case he had brought, bungled, lost (accidently on purpose?) since I was suing some mob-connected under RICO and the court (I had known / previously met outside of court the judge Ackerman through a client) was absolute bedlam and a total joke since incompetent corrupt Alito brought in all 20 mob defendants (rather than prosecute one or a few to flip them first) who feigning illness had beds/cots in the courtroom along with their moans during testimony and had the jury in stitches. As much as I hate the mob, it truly was funny, if not so tragic.], Alito is also corrupt (and maybe corrupt because he is inept). After a reasonable (but still rather short) time I called to determine the status and was told that Alito was no longer with the Office of the U.S. Attorney, that he was (appointed) a federal judge, and that neither the documents nor any file or record of same could be located. Alito did parley the same / cover-up into quid pro quo direct lifetime appointment to the Court of Appeals, 3^rd circuit, despite the absence of judicial experience or successful tenure as U.S. Attorney (Maryanne Trump Barry as well). This is the same Sam Alito that now sits on the purported highest court in the land. The real application of the illegal rule ‘don’t ask, don’t tell’.

There is applicable insurance / surety coverage and neither LA, nor creditors, nor I should continue to have been damaged by this brazened corrupt and illegal scenario, which should be resolved in accordance with the meaningful rules of law apposite thereto.

Sincerely,

Albert L. Peia

611 E. 5^th Street, #404

Los Angeles, CA 90013

(213) 219-**** (cell phone)

(213) 622-3745 (listed land line but there are unresolved problems with the line, computer connection may be the reason but I hesitate to chance greater non-performance / worsening by their ‘fix’ so cell phone best for contact).

] Group of law professors' appeal comes after controversies involving travel and appearances at political events by several justices.

Why your local Hospital could soon shut down (Ad) http://www.stansberryresearch.com/pro/1011PSIENDVD/LPSILC43/PR [ The instant video from Stansberry and Associates is so well researched and succinctly presented that I’ve archived same on my website; also, because the facts and views presented comport with the facts and views I’ve presented on my site which I believe to be correct. This is a must-view, must-see that I strongly recommend!
The complete url: http://www.albertpeia.com/stansberrysinvestmentadvisory.flv ( 146mb – approx. 1 hr. 17 min. ) http://www.albertpeia.com/stansberrysinvestmentadvisory.mp4 ( 374mb ) Written text of presentation (without pictures / charts) http://www.albertpeia.com/stansberrypresentation.htm ]

Drudgereport:OIL SHOCK AS MIDEAST SPIRALSMore Than 140,000 People Flee Libya...
Gadhafi forces retake towns near capital...
Cameron backtracks on no-fly zone plan... Astonishing wealth of Gaddafi and his family revealed... WIKILEAKS' ASSANGE CITED JEWISH CONSPIRACY... YEMEN RAGES...
President says US, Israel behind unrest... Fashion Week Führer: DIOR Fires Galliano After Racism Complaints... 'I love Hitler'...
'Your parents should have been gassed'...FADE: OSCAR RATINGS DOWN 10% ...
Injury Added to Insult... [ In terms of production value (rich in content in every way), I believe this to be as good and in my view better than ever as award ceremonies can be without the inimitable Bob Hope. I believe any falloff can be directly attributable to last year the academy’s egregious misstep in over-looking ‘Avatar’ / Cameron presaging a similar fate concerning my clear choice of ‘Inception’ / Nolan ( Truth be told, I’ve yet to see ‘The King’s Speech’ failing to muster any enthusiasm for seeing a film centered around a ‘so-called royal’ trying to over-come a speech impediment, albeit a minor one, regardless of circumstances; viz., stuttering, though I would concede that it was probably well done. We all know of the problems attendant to english royal inbreeding…ho hum… I did find ‘The Black Swan’ superb but attribute same to my own bias and fascination with viewing female ballet dancing). Bob Hope: Academy Awards, ‘passover’ … very funny! ]CIVIL WAR WEEKEND

Armed pro-Gaddafi gangs roll in Tripoli...
...Shooting from ambulances...
GRAFFITI AND BARRICADES...
Gaddafi vows to crush protesters...
Egypt protesters dispersed by force...
Al Qaeda calls for revolt against Arab rulers...
Obama to Gaddafi: Leave now...
UN Security Council passes votes to sanction...

Gas prices surge 17 cents in a week...
Motorist Calls Police Over Rising Prices...
OBAMA: CAN WE DRILL NOW?
LONDON DRIVERS PAYING $9 A GALLON...
Spain reduces motorway speed limit to save oil...

WOBAMA 'IMPEACHMENT' WARNING... ...to announce exploratory committee 'in 10 days'WEST MOVES MILITARY ASSETS AROUND LIBYACharlieSheen Publicist Runs For Hills...
Actor set to sue CBS for $320M, 'mental anguish'...
The Legal Letter...
THE 'TODAY' INTERVIEW... NY MAG: Madoff on Madoff: The Jailhouse Tapes...
Government a Ponzi scheme...

CIVIL WAR WEEKEND...
Anti-Gaddafi forces widen control...
Take town 30 miles from Tripoli...
Security forces defect...
Armed pro-gangs roll in capital...
...shooting from ambulances
ISRAELI'S YOUTUBE SPOOF OF GADHAFI CATCHES ON IN ARAB WORLD...
Police station, state office burning in Oman town...
Tunisia prime minister resigns... Gingrich to announce exploratory committee 'in 10 days' [ Neo-con Dreamin’! I mean, come on … are memories so short they don’t recall him being a total hypocrite, zionist shill, and part of the problem though to his credit, he’s not a mobster and complete joke as is trump! ]

CHICAGOLAND: Lawmaker Suggests BOEING'S Contract Win A Result Of Dirty Politics... [ The contract’s with money the nation doen’t really have anyway; and, the value of the money paid will be worth substantially less by completion; and, no surprise … Chicago hasn’t changed much from the days of capone and is rivaled in terms of corruption by such states as jersey, new york, etc.. ] ‘…“I’m disappointed but not surprised,” Republican Sen. Richard Shelby said. “Only Chicago politics could tip the scales in favor of Boeing’s inferior plane. EADS clearly offers the more capable aircraft.”…’

Ohio, Wisconsin shine spotlight on new union battle (Washington Post) [ The importance of this article cannot be over-stated in at least its an attempt to highlight, if not distinguish between the roles of unions in the private sector versus the public sector, namely government. While in law school evenings, and working at a law firm during the day, I invariably taught one or two courses per semester (spring, fall, summer) at a local college in predominantly finance, management, insurance, and real estate. I used the Drucker text, case book, materials for management which enabled me to pay close attention to his quite brilliant thoughts, positions as they continued to evolve (as an undergrad we used Drucker, who also was consultant to many major corporations). He was a defender of unions in the private sector, if only to provide an all encompassing, cohesive, unified group with which management could deal. He also talked about the need to apply management principles to and manage non-profit organizations, institutions as, ie., hospitals, schools, etc., and hence by inference, though he didn’t seem to get to it, governments. They specifically needed to be managed for performance, which of course, in his approach required substantial thought in defining mission, goals, objectives, steps in achieving objectives, and measuring achievement or not of objectives, etc.. Moreover, raises, compensation, benefits, pensions were never to be automatic, but rather based upon clearly defined performance, merit, as can be measured. The problem in pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt america particulary is that more, regardless of performance had, has become an oftimes integrally political thing determinant of election results. Congress (as well as judiciary, executive branch-excepting law enforcement) has been among the worst offenders from not only the perspective of their own ever increasing pay / benefit / compensation packages despite the nation’s sinking sensation, but as well, their role in keeping in check the abuses, frauds, crimes in the private sector (ie., wall street, ceo excessive comp., etc.) which duty they have egregiously shirked. The bottomline is exactly that; viz., the bottomline. The money’s not there. The nation, state, local governments in america have not been managed for performance and are defacto bankrupt in general therefore. States can’t pay what they don’t have, but there are a lot of those, ie., frauds on wall street, etc., who should be paying first, whatever it takes! ] The divide between government worker unions and their opponents highlights a critical aspect of the evolving labor movement.

Cohen: Time for Arabs to reject anti-semitism (Washington Post) [ Reality check … time for israelis / jews to reject zionism and all that is entailed therein, including an alternate reality that defies credulity, rationality, and facts; such as, a self-rationalizing greed, anti-arab / anti-Christian predisposition and the ‘Oedipal Effect’ (blowback) engendered thereby. No, Johnny Carson was not anti-semitic (Fred Silverman), same for Charlie Sheen (Chuck Lorre), etc. (the list is endless inasmuch as when facts are not on their side, such specious inflammatory arguments as ‘anti-semitism’, prejudice, are a convenient subterfuge distracting from their weak position; ie., illegal nukes, war crimes, ignoring u.n. resolutions, ie., 242, 338, etc., ignoring international law. At best, no … God did not give them this land … at worst, God took the land back when they with roman muscle crucified Christ. Balfour was an arbitrary, incompetent, british joke.). ]

U.S. freezes $30 billion in Libya government assets (Washington Post) [ The lesson for the Libyan people based upon pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt war crimes nation america’s desperation is … you better watch that Libyan money closely; after all, look what’s happened to american money in american hands … totally plundered by the opportunist few! ] Action taken by executive order is largest blocking under any U.S. sanctions program ever; Clinton announces efforts to stem humanitarian crisis.

Report: GOP spending plan would cost 700,000 jobs (Washington Post) [ If everyone was so concerned with the reality that pervasively corrupt america is defacto bankrupt, they could could begin with disgorgement of the hundreds of billions in fraudulent gains gotten in their massive fraud by the frauds on wall street by prosecuting same as falsely promised by ‘wobama the b’ (for b* s*) and holder as set forth in Oscar Winner Ferguson’s Documentary, ‘INSIDE JOB’, see immediately hereafter. After all, the nation is bankrupt! Don't cut here (Washington Post) [ If not there … then where? I think people are totally out-of-touch with the reality of america’s dire circumstances and impending collapse on as many levels as a nation could face disaster. Denial? If it were only that simple … Why your local Hospital could soon shut down (Ad) http://www.stansberryresearch.com/pro/1011PSIENDVD/LPSILC43/PR ( The instant video from Stansberry and Associates is so well researched and succinctly presented that I’ve archived same on my website; also, because the facts and views presented comport with the facts and views I’ve presented on my site which not only do I believe to be correct, but are supported by the unequivocal documented facts. This is a must-view, must-see that I strongly recommend! The complete url ( 146 mb – approx. 1 hr. 17 min. ) : http://www.albertpeia.com/stansberrysinvestmentadvisory.flv ) ] Topic A: Advocates make the case for funding their favorite federal programs. [ With what? The nation’s bankrupt: Senate Democrats draft cuts in domestic agency budgets (Washington Post) [ Do these ‘too little, too late’ so-called cuts purport to make the nation ‘less bankrupt’? There’s no such thing … absolutely preposterous! And, Kotlikoff thinks so as well, see immediately hereafter… ] The plan will involve accelerating some of the $33 billion in program terminations and reductions included in Obama's proposed budget for next year. When Pretending Fails to Hide Bankruptcy: Laurence Kotlikoff ( Today in the WashingtonPost.Com ) Laurence Kotlikoff Feb 22, 2011 Feb. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Our country is bankrupt. It’s not bankrupt in 30 years or five years. It’s bankrupt today…’ ] The report offers fresh ammunition to Democrats seeking block the plan, which would slash federal appropriations by $61 billion.

‘INSIDE JOB’ Ferguson wins Oscar for Documentary on the unprosecuted massive extant fraud in the (many) TRILLIONS by the frauds on wall street ( and declares with oscar in hand that not one high level wall street exec has been prosecuted … despite ‘earning’ billiions from the fraud ), the commentator / experts recommend getting rid of the corrupt eric holder ( now what do holder and wobama have in common … is it wall street money ………… is it a proclivity for jive-talking / b*** s*** ………all of the above, some of the above ……….. or is it something else …… here’s a hint - UPDATE: MORE CLAIMS OF RACE BIAS AT JUSTICE... CIVIL RIGHTS PANEL TO PURSUE FED PROBE IN BLACK PANTHER CASE... ‘In emotional and personal testimony, an ex-Justice official who quit over the handling of a voter intimidation case against the New Black Panther Party accused his former employer of instructing attorneys in the civil rights division to ignore cases that involve black defendants and white victims ...’ US v. AZ... Cases against Wall Street lag despite Holder’s vows to target financial fraud Washington Post | Obama has promised to hold Wall Street accountable for the meltdown. ) (see this film, I strongly recommend the complete documentary – the following is a preview/summary) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ffHFjlqIzKE&feature=related

[Here’s an archived version

http://www.albertpeia.com/insidejob.mp4 [ 65mb ] ]

Wobama says daffy gaddafi’s time is up, got to go. The same can be said of wobama et als and his fraudulently failed presidency. Sheen On Obama: “A Coward In a Cheap Suit” [ I think Sheen to be too gentle in his criticism of wobama (Some might reflexively, defensively allege drugs (prescription or otherwise) or any number of the varied personality disorders so prevalent in america … ‘fuzzy, California laid back thinking’, ‘whatever’… Who knows? ) But, that said, wobama’s far worse than just a ‘coward in a cheap suit’. Indeed, Wobama’s a total fraud having been elected under false pretenses; viz., his total, unequivocal, and unfulfilled b*** s*** (those campaign promises) ! Moreover, there has been some persuasive documentation questioning wobama’s citizenship / birthplace placing his eligibility to even hold the office of president in question. ] Amidst the controversy of his wild interview on the Alex Jones Show yesterday, actor Charlie Sheen wasted little time in confronting President Barack Obama on his failure to answer Sheen’s twenty questions concerning 9/11, calling Obama, “a coward in a cheap suit.” A Government Shut-down Imperils the Power of Congress Paul Craig Roberts | Congress could try to protect its loss of the power of the purse by impeaching Obama. Drudgereport: WOBAMA 'IMPEACHMENT' WARNING... ...to announce exploratory committee 'in 10 days' Globalist Shill Barack Obama Asks Business Leaders For Job Creation Ideas Even As He Ships More Of Our Jobs Overseas As Part Of The New One World Economy The other day, Barack Obama summoned a group of business and labor leaders to the White House and “challenged” them to come up with some great ideas for creating more jobs inside the United States.

Public confidence in Obama reaches new low (Washington Post). Six in 10 Americans lack faith in Obama and hold lower esteem for members of Congress, according to the latest Washington Post-ABC News poll. Such stats as this tend to typify scenarios as this where you break every significant campaign promise that got you elected, from endless war (ie., Afghanistan, etc.) to not prosecuting the frauds on wall street, and the growing realization of ‘typical’: Public confidence in Obama reaches new low (Washington Post) Six in 10 Americans lack faith in Obama and hold lower esteem for members of Congress, according to the latest Washington Post-ABC News poll. Such stats as this tend to typify scenarios as this where you break every significant campaign promise that got you elected, from endless war (ie., Afghanistan, etc.) to not prosecuting the frauds on wall street, and the growing realization of ‘typical’:

But still it’s ‘hands off fraudulent wall street’ to theirs, the nation’s, and the world’s detriment. Firms subpoenaed in attempt to regain Fannie, Freddie losses (Washington Post). But there’s a reason:

The following youtube video is well worth the look and explains how and why the frauds on wall street have gotten away with their devastating fraud thus far. The frauds on wall street et als should be criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed. ( `UPDATE: MORE CLAIMS OF RACE BIAS AT JUSTICE...` `CIVIL RIGHTS PANEL TO PURSUE FED PROBE IN BLACK PANTHER CASE... ‘`In emotional and personal testimony, an ex-Justice official who quit over the handling of a voter intimidation case against the New Black Panther Party accused his former employer of instructing attorneys in the civil rights division to ignore cases that involve black defendants and white victims ...’ `US v. AZ...` Cases against Wall Street lag despite Holder’s vows to target financial fraud Washington Post | Obama has promised to hold Wall Street accountable for the meltdown. ):

‘THE OBAMA DECEPTION’ http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eAaQNACwaLw&feature=PlayList&p=2EFAB57B44063742&playnext_from=PL&index=0&playnext=1 – well worth a look. [ The Obama Deception Number 1 on U.S. Google Trends ]

While boner and barton are indeed jokes / vegetables that bespeak the single-digit approval rate for congress, obama’s failure to deliver on promises with as well, endless war spending despite defacto bankruptcy of the nation and a watered down nothing financial regulation bill for talking points but little substance, make him as big a joker. This well researched / produced video tells the real story : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eAaQNACwaLw&feature=PlayList&p=2EFAB57B44063742&playnext_from=PL&index=0&playnext=1 ‘THE OBAMA DECEPTION’ – well worth the view. [ The Obama Deception Number 1 on U.S. Google Trends ]

Then there is the well researched, produced, and informative ‘ESOTERIC AGENDA’ which explains how we’ve gotten to this forlorn point: http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-7052400717834950257# For the Same Reason I’ve Included Here a Web Site Archived FLV Version of Esoteric Agenda http://albertpeia.com/esotericagenda.flv

October 15, 2010 (*see infra)

Steven M. Martinez, Assistant Director In Charge
Federal Bureau of Investigation, USDOJ
11000 Wilshire Blvd., Suite 1700

Los Angeles, CA 90024

Dear Sir:

A judgment had been entered in my favor in the case, United States District Court Case #3:93cv02065(AWT)(USDCJ Alvin Thompson), worth approximately now in excess of $300,000 remains unaccounted for and which could be used for payment to creditors, Los Angeles, etc..
Counsel Robert Sullivan on my behalf documented by way of certification upon investigation that Alan Shiff, USBCJ, had falsely stated a dismissal upon which false statement he predicated a retaliatory and spurious contempt proceeding against me causing substantial damage, and for which he sought Judicial Notice of those and related proceedings as did I in some of my filings.
The Order of Dismissal With Prejudice by Alan Shiff, USBCJ, owing to Defendant Coan’s failure to file anything whatsoever by the court’s deadline causing creditors and me substantial damages: [ Shiff Order of Dismissal With Prejudice on Coan’s Failure to File Page 1 Page 2 ]
Defendant Coan had filed an action against me to prevent me from suing him which necessitated me to fly to Connecticut for a hearing before The Honorable Robert N. Chatigny, Chief Judge, USDC, District of Connecticut, who denied Coan’s requested relief as to Coan but precluded my action against Shiff (although there is no immunity, judicial or otherwise, for criminal acts, ie., fraud connected with a case under Title 11, USC, etc.) . [ transcript in pertinent part - crossexamofcoanbypeia.pdf ]
Newly appointed judge, Maryanne Trump Barry, Donald Trump’s sister, was assigned the RICO case despite the conflict of interest in light of hundreds of thousands of dollars of illegal (drug) money being laundered through the Trump casinos by the RICO defendants, and despite my motion to recuse her which motion she heard herself and denied, and U.S. Trustee Hugh Leonard with whom I met personally refused to join or file a separate motion to recuse and not long thereafter left said office for private practice at Cole, Shotz, et als on retainer with the RICO defendants as his primary client.
Probative and evidentiary documents, affidavits, exhibits, including those turned over to FBI Agent Jeff Hayes in Long Beach, CA, had been given to Assistant U.S. Attorney Jonathan Lacey with whom I met personally at the U.S. Attorney’s Office in Newark, N.J., at which time Samuel Alito was U.S. Attorney, and went over said documents and their probative value with him. Within approximately a month thereafter upon inquiry I was told that Jonathon Lacey was no longer with the office, that the file/documents could not be located, and that there was no further information available concerning contacting him or his location. I thereupon delivered by hand, copies of said documents to the office of then U.S. Attorney Alito, addressed to him, with assurance they would go directly to him. In addition to being inept [ I looked in on the one mob case he had brought, bungled, lost (accidently on purpose?) since I was suing some mob-connected under RICO and the court (I had known / previously met outside of court the judge Ackerman through a client) was absolute bedlam and a total joke since incompetent corrupt Alito brought in all 20 mob defendants (rather than prosecute one or a few to flip them first) who feigning illness had beds/cots in the courtroom along with their moans during testimony and had the jury in stitches. As much as I hate the mob, it truly was funny, if not so tragic.], Alito is also corrupt (and maybe corrupt because he is inept). After a reasonable (but still rather short) time I called to determine the status and was told that Alito was no longer with the Office of the U.S. Attorney, that he was (appointed) a federal judge, and that neither the documents nor any file or record of same could be located. Alito did parley the same / cover-up into quid pro quo direct lifetime appointment to the Court of Appeals, 3^rd circuit, despite the absence of judicial experience or successful tenure as U.S. Attorney (Maryanne Trump Barry as well). This is the same Sam Alito that now sits on the purported highest court in the land. The real application of the illegal rule ‘don’t ask, don’t tell’.

Sincerely,

Albert L. Peia

611 E. 5^th Street, #404

Los Angeles, CA 90013

(213) 219-**** (cell phone)

] Group of law professors' appeal comes after controversies involving travel and appearances at political events by several justices.

‘The Chicago PMI for February climbed to a 20-year high of 71.2. It had only ben expected to come in at 67.5 after a 68.8 reading in January’. [ Come on! Does anyone take anything coming out chicago capone-land seriously…maybe is the answer if you’re a fool. ]

Market Crash 2011: It Will Hit by Christmas Farrell, MarketWatch SAN LUIS OBISPO, Calif. (MarketWatch) — Politicians lie. Bankers lie. Yes, they’re liars. But they’re not bad, it’s in their genes, inherited. Their brains are wired that way, warn scientists. Like addicts, they can’t help themselves. They want to sell stuff, get rich.

We want to believe they’re telling us the truth. Silly, huh? Both trapped in this eternal “dance of death” controlled by programs hidden deep in our brains, telling us what to do, telling us to ignore facts to the contrary — till it’s too late, till a new crisis crushes all of us.

Dow ends at 2 1/2-year high

Joe Bel Bruno explains why stocks climbed to 21/2-year highs and extended their winning streak to a third consecutive week.

Psychology offers us a powerful lesson: Our collective brain is destined to trigger a crash before Christmas 2011. Why? We’re gullible, keep searching for a truth-teller in a world of liars. And they’re so clever, we let them manipulate us into acting against our best interests.

In fact, behavioral science tells us that bankers and politicians are lying to us 93% of the time. It’s 13 times more likely Wall Street is telling you a lie than the truth. That’s why they win. Why we lose. Because our brains are preprogrammed to cooperate in their con game. Yes, we believe most of their lies.

One of America’s leading behavioral finance gurus, University of Chicago Prof. Richard Thaler, explains: “Think of the human brain as a personal computer with a very slow processor and a memory system that is small and unreliable.” Thaler even admits: “The PC I carry between my ears has more disk failures than I care to think about.” Easy to manipulate.

Eternal love story: Your brain’s in love with Wall Street’s brain

Thaler’s a quant, speaks mostly in cryptic algorithmics. So if you really want to know how Wall Street’s con game works on you, Barry Ritholtz, the financial genius behind “Bailout Nation,” recently summarized it in the Washington Post: “Humans make all the same mistakes, over and over again. It’s how we are wired, the net result of evolution. That flight-or-fight response might have helped your ancestors deal with hungry saber-toothed tigers and territorial Cro Magnons, but it drives investors to make costly emotional decisions.”

Humans have something “akin to brain damage,” says Ritholtz. “To neurophysiologists, who research cognitive functions, the emotionally driven appear to suffer from cognitive deficits that mimic certain types of brain injuries. … Anyone with an intense emotional interest in a subject loses the ability to observe it objectively: You selectively perceive events. You ignore data and facts that disagree with your main philosophy. Even your memory works to fool you, as you selectively retain what you believe in, and subtly mask any memories that might conflict.”

Worse, there’s no cure.

Your brain needs to believe lies; Wall Street loves telling lies

Examples: USA Today headline: “Average Bull is 3.8 years: We’re not at 2 yet.” More upside. Wall Street loves it. The Wall Street Journal: “Stock recovery in high gear … S&P500 now speeding toward its next landmark,” double its March 2009 bottom.

Other lies: Inflation and rate rises won’t push China and America over the edge into a new bear recession. That one’s real popular in Wall Street’s echo chamber. Wall Street also cheers every time cable pundits and journalists repeat their favorite statistic: That stocks rally in the third year of a presidency, often more than 20%. Yes, Wall Street loves those 93% lies.

Biggest lie? Wharton’s perennial bull, Jeremy Siegel, of “Stocks for the Long Run” fame, recently told a TD Ameritrade Institutional Conference, “There’s nothing but upside to come …the next several years are going to be good for stocks.”

Yes, one of Wall Street’s favorite co-conspirators is hypnotizing thousands of our best money managers and advisers into believing the lie that this bull market will roar indefinitely. Worse, they’ll use that message to sell naive investors on buying whatever junk Wall Street is selling.

Get the picture? A little conspiracy begins in your head, a conspiracy between your gullible brain and Wall Street’s con men selling hype, hoopla and happy-talk. Listen and you’ll lose. Warning: This little conspiracy is a retirement killer. Remember: It’s odds-on you’re being lied to. So for a few moments, listen to some highly respected contrarians. They’re short-selling this conspiracy, betting that 2011 will hit headwinds before Christmas, turn a cyclical bull rally into a cyclical bear market.

Our brains never learned 2008’s lessons, will fail again in 2011

Remember, we can’t help it. Our brains are defective, biased, manipulated by unseen forces 93% of the time. So blame all the lies, lying and liars on our brain wiring. A perfect excuse. Sure, political dogma and insatiable greed factor into our bizarre mental equations. But your brain is as susceptible to the “great con” as Ben Bernanke, Henry Paulson, Bernie Madoff.

Go back a few years: The subprime credit meltdown was widely predicted years in advance. For example, back in 2007, the IMF’s Chief Economist, Raghuram Rajan, “delivered a stark warning to the world’s top bankers: Financial markets were headed for doom. They laughed it off,” said the Toronto Star. Both Alan Greenspan and Larry Summers were there.

In April 2007, Jeremy Grantham, whose firm manages $107 billion, also warned investors: “The First Truly Global Bubble: From Indian antiquities to modern Chinese art; from land in Panama to Mayfair; from forestry, infrastructure, and the junkiest bonds to mundane blue chips; it’s bubble time. … Everyone, everywhere is reinforcing one another. … Bursting of the bubble will be across all countries and all assets … no similar global event has occurred before.”

We knew a crash was coming, Wall Street laughed.

Call it denial, or lying, or just a brain defect, late that summer as the meltdown spread like wildfire, shutting down the economy, our manipulative Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson, a former Goldman Sachs CEO, told Fortune “this is far and away the strongest global economy I’ve seen in my business lifetime.” And Fed boss Bernanke was telling us the subprime crisis was “contained.” Alan Greenspan agreed. He was on tour, making millions hustling his new book of excuses, delusions and lies, “The Age of Turbulence.”

Today, just three years later, the market’s just a shade above its 2000 peak. Adjusted for inflation, Wall Street stocks have lost roughly 20% of your retirement money the past decade. Get it? Wall Street’s a big loser the past decade. And they’ll lose another 20% by 2020. Why? Because 93% of what comes from Wall Street is suspect, can’t be trusted.

Warning: Cyclical bull ends in 2011, new cyclical bear roars back

At the beginning of 2011 USA Today reported a contrarian forecast. Ned Davis Research says the S&P 500 will make a run at the 2007 high of 1,565, but hit a “midyear peak.” Then it will crash as interest rates rise. Davis concludes: “The midyear peak could mark the end of the cyclical bull market that began in March 2009 and the start of a new cyclical bear market.”

Warning, even though your brain doesn’t want to hear it, there is a high probability a new cyclical bear market will begin this summer … and overshadow the 2012 elections.

The Journal’s also warning: “Inflation jitters spread through emerging markets, prompting China’s central bank to raise interest rate for the third time in four months amid worries that a drought threatening the country’s wheat crop will put further pressure on global food prices.”

Wake up America: With commodity prices rising rapidly, all the bizarre rationalizations Wall Street uses to keep Bernanke’s interest rates low are rapidly vaporizing. Yes, Ned Davis’ prediction of a bear will soon be a painful reality.

S&P 500 inflated, worth just 910, get out before it tops 1,500

Grantham also sees inflation and rising interest rates killing the lies, popping the bubble and ending the rally: “As a simple rule, the market will tend to rise as long as short rates are kept low. This seems likely to be the case for eight more months and, therefore, we have to be prepared for the market to rise and to have a risky bias.”

With $107 billion at stake Grantham better be concerned. He predicted the 2008 meltdown, now sees a repeat dead ahead: “Be prepared for a strong market and continued outperformance of everything risky, but be aware that you are living on borrowed time as a bull.”

Yes, the bubble will pop this year says Grantham: “If the S&P rises to 1,500, it would officially be the latest in the series of true bubbles. All of the famous bubbles broke, but only after short rates had started to rise.”

So keep a close watch on those two tipping points in your planning, interest rates breaking to the upside and the S&P closing near 1,500. When inflation pushes interest rates up they’ll choke off this bull market. If you’re active, better stop chasing higher returns, especially emerging markets.

Bottom line: In what sounds like a direct shot at super-bull Jeremy Siegel, Grantham says that GMO’s research warns that “the market is worth about 910 on the S&P 500, substantially less than current levels” just above 1,300.

Then Grantham throws his fast ball right down the middle: “The speed with which you should pull back from the market as it advances into dangerously overpriced territory this year is more of an art than a science, but by October 1 you should probably be thinking much more conservatively.”

Translation: Get the heck out of Wall Street’s stock market casino soon, maybe as early as July 4th, and definitely get out by Christmas, because soon all the lies, lying and liars will stop working. ‘

Stock Concentration: A Different Aspect of ETF Risk Kownatzki ‘ETFs have been all the rage. Ongoing investor interest has prompted an amazing growth of this type of investment vehicle. For most individual investors the traditional ETFs do provide an easy, certainly more cost effective way of diversification and therefore spreading risk among possibly several hundred companies. Many of these ETFs track the major stock market indices such as the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA) and PowerShares NASDAQ 100 (QQQQ).

I have been repeatedly critical of some of the more complex ETFs in the past. Leveraged ETFs (double and triple) as well as inverse ETFs should only be considered by more experienced investors as they generally incur much higher risks. Worse yet, they tend to do a rather poor job at tracking the underlying index or basket of assets, often lagging far behind the expected performance. We discussed this in detail in numerous articles, more recently in Naïve expectations versus actual performance.

By contrast, as long as one invests in the traditional ETFs tracking just the major market indices, one should take comfort from the fact that diversification through the many different companies provides some insurance against individual company risk. Or does it?

Let’s look at an area of risk that’s not all that obvious on first glance: concentration risk.

Whenever I examine a new ETF or Mutual Fund, my first question is always: What are they actually buying and what are their current holdings?

One should do the same before buying any index fund too. Be aware of what the index is actually made of and what the fund allocations are. For instance, looking at the top ten holdings of the Dow Jones ETF (DIA), it is clear that a significant portion of that index, about 10%, is allocated to one company – IBM. Nothing against IBM, but just be aware that this is quite a large allocation in just one stock.

DIA Top Ten Holdings	as of 2-25-11
Components	Weight
IBM	10.08%
Chevron (CVX)	6.39%
Caterpillar Inc (CAT)	6.30%
3M Co (MMM)	5.64%
Exxon Mobil (XOM)	5.39%
United Technologies (UTX)	5.18%
McDonald's (MCD)	4.71%
Boeing Co (BA)	4.43%
Coca Cola Co (KO)	4.00%
Procter & Gamble Co (PG)	3.95%

Granted that the Dow is only made up of 30 companies, that concentration risk is still relatively benign. Much more of a concentration risk has been gathering steam in the NASDAQ 100. The extremely successful company Apple now comprises more than one fifth of the Index, clearly a huge allocation in just one company.

QQQQ Top Ten Holdings	as of 2-25-11
Components	Weight
Apple Inc. (AAPL)	20.47%
QUALCOMM Inc. (QCOM)	5.29%
Google Inc. (GOOG)	4.24%
Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)	3.59%
Oracle Corp. (ORCL)	3.17%
Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN)	2.43%
Intel Corp. (INTC)	1.96%
Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO)	1.70%
Comcast Corp. (CMCSA)	1.68%
Teva Pharmaceutical (TEVA)	1.68%

Apple (AAPL) has been a huge success and the NASDAQ 100 Index has also been profiting from Apple’s stellar performance in recent years. Without going into detail as to how the component allocation of these indices are calculated, the average investor should at least be aware of the top 10 holdings of these ETFs as they provide some insight into how much or how little the index is actually diversified. Given the larger allocation of Apple in this case has been a huge plus for holders of QQQQ. But the same holders should appreciate that there is a significant concentration risk through this massive holding in just one company. Don’t get me wrong, I love Apple and its products and I am not here to argue as to whether Apple’s astronomical market cap of $320 billion is justified. But the fact that Apple is now more than 20% of the NASDAQ 100 leaves me a bit uncomfortable.

You could consider buying Apple stock directly (if Apple were the “chosen one”) while achieving your desired level of diversification through a broader index like the S&P 500. In that index, comprised of 500 companies, Apple is still the second largest component stock. However, with a weight of just 2.65% it looks more like diversification is actually happening.

SPY Top Ten Holdings	as of 2-25-11
Components	Weight
Exxon Mobil	3.65%
Apple Inc.	2.65%
General Electric Co (GE)	1.85%
Chevron Corp New	1.73%
Microsoft Corp	1.70%
IBM	1.68%
JP Morgan Chase & Co (JPM)	1.51%
Procter & Gamble Co	1.49%
Johnson & Johnson JNJ)	1.39%
Wells Fargo & Co (WFC)	1.39%

Again, I’m not debating the commercial viability of Apple Inc. (although there are those who fear that the absence of Steve Jobs will eventually hurt the long-term prospects of the company). This is rather a heads up for those who might not realize how much of their money is invested in just one stock when they purchase shares in the ETF QQQQ. Always good to know what’s inside the shopping bag…’

Greenback Armageddon Ahead? Why the dollar is about to crash, with Damon Vickers, Nine Points Capital Management founder, and “The Day After Dollar Crash” author.

Government Promises to Cut Social Security It’s official, national austerity measures are here.

Politicians Slash Budget of Watchdog Agencies … Guaranteeing that Financial Fraud Won’t Be Investigated or Prosecuted As I noted last year, you can tell how interested Congress and the White House are in uncovering the truth by looking at how much money is actually budgeted for investigation.

Will banksters get away with it? Aljazeera | Why have the unions and leftist groups been mostly silent on these issues?

The REAL Unemployment Rate Is 22% The Daily Bail | It remains above 22% with the February update.

Libya’s Turmoil Leads to Highest February Gas Prices in 21 Years ABC News | Crude oil touched nearly $102 a barrel in Asia this morning amid fears that Libya could halt exports.

The Flood Of Money Drowns Out The Value The world is awash in dollars and that is being reflected in the USDX, which are six major currencies versus the dollar. The loss of value is being loudly trumpeted as the IMF says a replacement must be found.

Mob Robbers And Rampant Looting: Is This The Future Of America? Have you ever heard of mob robberies? What happens is that dozens of young people storm a store at the same time, take whatever they want, and then storm out as powerless store clerks watch helplessly.

Price of food is at the heart of revolutions The Independent | No one saw the uprisings coming, but their deeper cause isn’t hard to fathom.

Oil Rises for Second Day as Middle East Turmoil Spreads to Oman Bloomberg | Oil advanced for a second day in New York after turmoil that has cut Libya’s output spread to Oman.

Madoff Says Entire U.S. Government a `Ponzi Scheme’ Bernard Madoff, convicted for organizing a ponzi scheme, criticized the U.S. during a recent telephone interview with New York Magazine.

‘No Plans’ To Cut Speeds As Oil Price Soars Transport officials have denied they are considering cutting speed limits on the roads to conserve fuel, despite the world oil crisis.

“Technical Glitch” Takes Down Australian Stock Exchange After last week we saw the Euronext, the Italian and the London Stock Exchanges crashing and burning, it is now Australia’s turn.

Will The Death Of The Dollar Lead To The Birth Of A New World Economic Order? There is no getting around it. The U.S. dollar is dying. U.S. government debt continues to grow at a very frightening pace and the Federal Reserve is now buying up most of the new debt that is being issued.

ECONOMIC CRISIS ARCHIVE

National / World

War, Martial Law, and the Economic Crisis Peter Dale Scott | A quiet agglomeration of military power shows sustained intention.

Government Promises to Cut Social Security Infowars.com | It’s official, national austerity measures are here.

“Day of Rage” in Iraq: 23 Killed by Government Infowars.com | Obama too busy condemning Gaddafi to take al-Maliki to task in Iraq.

Obama Signs Patriot Act Extension New York Post | Allows law enforcement to set roving wiretaps to monitor multiple communication devices.

Ignacio Pena: “Songs for the Fall of an Empire” Infowars.com | Another example of the sort of excellent work submitted to the latest video contest.

A Government Shut-down Imperils the Power of Congress Paul Craig Roberts | Congress could try to protect its loss of the power of the purse by impeaching Obama.

Libyans: No Thanks to Globalist Intervention Kurt Nimmo | Rebel leader stated his country does not want or need help from the United States and its globalist partners.

Obama’s “Humanitarian” Conquest Of Libya Paul Joseph Watson | While his predator drone attacks kill 90% innocents, President suddenly develops a conscience for human suffering

Globalism Pushing Middle Class Standard of Living Down to Third World Levels The Economic Collapse | The truth is that the global economy is bad for America.

Is Barack Obama About To Order The U.S. Military To Invade Libya? As insane as it might sound, the United States may soon be getting involved in another war in the Middle East. According to White House spokesman Jay Carney, “no options” have been taken off the table when it comes to the situation in Libya.

War Uber Alles The United States government cannot get enough of war. With Libyan dictator Moammar Gadhafi’s regime falling to a rebelling population, CNN reports that a Pentagon spokesman said that the U.S. is looking at all options from the military side.

Mob Robbers And Rampant Looting: Is This The Future Of America? Have you ever heard of mob robberies? What happens is that dozens of young people storm a store at the same time, take whatever they want, and then storm out as powerless store clerks watch helplessly.

Infowars.com Takes 1st Place in Alternative News Rating The DBKP Report has listed Infowars.com as the top alternative news and information website in its February, 2011, 80 Alternative News-Information ratings report. DBKP bases its ratings on 3-month average of Alexa worldwide traffic rankings.

Perceptions And Facts About The War On Terror American philosopher and author Robert Anton Wilson, who died four years ago at the age of 74, tried to awaken us to the fact that the “world is not governed by facts or logic,” but by “belief systems.” The priests of power in the United States understand this well, and they have used their knowledge to rule over the ignorant people below them, and keep America in the dark.

Analysis of the Global Insurrection Against Neo-Liberal Economic Domination and the Coming American Rebellion If you think what’s happening in Egypt won’t happen within the United States, you’ve been watching too much TV. The statistics speak for themselves.

UK paying ‘bribes’ to free trapped Britons Britain has been buying off Libyan officials with hefty additional fees in order to expedite the troubled evacuation of UK nationals, according to senior government figures.

Neocon Analysts Push for Invasion of Libya CNN reports the Pentagon and NATO are ready to send troops into Libya under the cover of humanitarian assistance. CNN underscores the situation by stating that reports say Gaddafi will fight to the end and will seek martyrdom.

Inside The Mind Of Charlie Sheen Paul Joseph Watson & Alex Jones | Why the actor is so angry, and why Infowars is involved in the story. Following the controversy caused by Charlie Sheen’s wild and rampaging appearance on The Alex Jones Show, it’s necessary to understand why the actor is so angry, if only to set the record straight on a number of issues that have been misconstrued by the establishment media, as well as explaining why Infowars and Alex Jones are involving themselves with the machinations of the entertainment industry.

Homeland Security To Scan DNA The Homeland Security Department this summer plans to begin testing a DNA analyzer that’s small enough to be easily portable and fast enough to return results in less than an hour.

The Real Revolution As Washington plunges the Middle East and North Africa into chaos, and city by city collapses into the hands of globalist stooges, many have mistakenly interpreted this “change” as a positive transformation.

Obama says Kadhafi must ‘leave now’: White House President Barack Obama said Saturday that Libya’s leader Moamer Kadhafi needs to “leave now,” having lost the legitimacy to rule, a White House statement said.

Rebel army may be formed as Tripoli fails to oust Gaddafi Col. Moammar Gaddafi faced fresh setbacks domestically and internationally early Sunday with opposition forces in eastern Libya preparing to dispatch a rebel force to his stronghold in Tripoli and the United Nation’s imposing military and financial sanctions while raising the specter that the isolated leader could face charges for crimes against humanity.

Globalist Client Regime in Iraq Massacres Protesters Kurt Nimmo | Donald Rumsfeld told the Iraqis democracy can be messy. It can also be bloody.

War Über Alles Paul Craig Roberts | War makes money for the politically connected.

The Real Revolution Tony Cartalucci | We have been given a prepackaged ideal of what “revolution” is supposed to look like.

North Korea threatens US, South with 'all-out war' (AFP) AFP - North Korea threatened "all-out war" in response to exercises by South Korean and US troops due to start Monday and told Seoul to stop cross-border propaganda, upping the rhetoric against its ar...

Afghan gov't: NATO op killed 65 civilians (AP) [ War criminals winning hearts and minds? … Never gonna’ happen! ]

Ron Paul: Reject the Welfare-Warfare State! During the past few weeks, Congress has been locked in a battle to pass a continuing resolution to fund government operations through September. Both supporters and opponents of the bill – HR1 – claim it is a serious attempt to reduce federal spending. However, an examination of the details of the bill call that claim into question.

Alex Jones Culture Jams The View Alex Jones blasts the truth to The View’s audience of millions, bringing up the slaughter of a million innocents in Iraq, TSA grope down abuse, as well as the collapse of Building 7.

Obama Encircles US War Machine Around Libya President Barack Obama has instructed the Pentagon to reposition U.S. military forces around Libya as the administration prepares to exploit a humanitarian crisis to seize de facto control over the largest oil producing country in the continent of Africa, following the advice of top neo-cons who have urged Obama to use U.S. forces to topple the Gaddafi regime.

Ron Paul 2012: Tea Partiers Choose Congressman Over Sarah Palin For Presidential Bid Congressman Ron Paul has topped a Tea Party presidential straw poll, beating Sarah Palin as the favourite to run against Barack Obama in 2012.

Libyans: No Thanks to Globalist Intervention Following Secretary of State Clinton’s call for intervention, a rebel leader in Libya has stated his country does not want or need any help from the United States and its globalist partners.

Saudi activists eye protests, wait for new cabinet Democracy activists in Saudi Arabia say the government is closely monitoring social media to nip in the bud any protests inspired by uprisings that swept Arab countries, toppling leaders in Egypt and Tunisia.

Obama’s “Humanitarian” Conquest Of Libya Before President Barack Obama even took office, we warned that his administration would continue to follow the Bush-era policy of bankrupting America both financially and morally with new wars, but that these conquests would be done in the name of a humanitarian crisis rather than a pre-emptive assault.

Congress on course to avert shutdown (Washington Post) [ And just when we thought there was hope … for the nation … the world … How ‘bout a massive furlough program for congress, the judiciary, and the executive branch (except law enforcement). After all, if all of the foregoing along with the likes of pseudo gov’t / connected fraudulent wall street, etc., are not to blame for the debacle we now call america, then who is? They are, period, exclamation point. Massive firings would also do quite satisfactorily! ]

Chinese authorities block Web site, terms (Washington Post) [ It is bad enough that China is essentially a totalitarian communist nation, disingenuously relying upon capitalism for its stellar growth. In light of such and China’s preoccupation with censorship, it is also clear that it’s not so much China’s rise as it is pervasively corrupt / defacto bankrupt america’s demise. In other words, they’re ‘limited’ (by such). But make no mistake, pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt america goes to great lengths in suppressing information, truth in favor of what’s spewed out by their propaganda machine which is nonpareil; and then there’s the perpetual illegal wars. ] Chinese authorities continued to tighten controls on Internet use Friday in the face of murky calls for "jasmine rallies" to emulate the anti-government protests convulsing the Middle East and North Africa.

Midwest, Middle East events threaten U.S. (Washington Post) [ Come on! It’s just not there! ‘Seemed’ is the best they can muster and that’s what they’re shooting for … to fool all of the american people/taxpayers (other than insiders) all of the time … see here: Why your local Hospital could soon shut down (Ad) http://www.stansberryresearch.com/pro/1011PSIENDVD/LPSILC43/PR ( The instant video from Stansberry and Associates is so well researched and succinctly presented that I’ve archived same on my website; also, because the facts and views presented comport with the facts and views I’ve presented on my site which not only do I believe to be correct, but are supported by the unequivocal documented facts. This is a must-view, must-see that I strongly recommend! The complete url ( 146 mb – approx. 1 hr. 17 min. ) : http://www.albertpeia.com/stansberrysinvestmentadvisory.flv ) ] Just when the economic recovery seemed to gain momentum, two new threats have emerged that could undermine it.

Don't cut here (Washington Post) [ If not there … then where? I think people are totally out-of-touch with the reality of america’s dire circumstances and impending collapse on as many levels as a nation could face disaster. Denial? If it were only that simple … Why your local Hospital could soon shut down (Ad) http://www.stansberryresearch.com/pro/1011PSIENDVD/LPSILC43/PR ( The instant video from Stansberry and Associates is so well researched and succinctly presented that I’ve archived same on my website; also, because the facts and views presented comport with the facts and views I’ve presented on my site which not only do I believe to be correct, but are supported by the unequivocal documented facts. This is a must-view, must-see that I strongly recommend! The complete url ( 146 mb – approx. 1 hr. 17 min. ) : http://www.albertpeia.com/stansberrysinvestmentadvisory.flv ) ] Topic A: Advocates make the case for funding their favorite federal programs. [ With what? The nation’s bankrupt: Senate Democrats draft cuts in domestic agency budgets (Washington Post) [ Do these ‘too little, too late’ so-called cuts purport to make the nation ‘less bankrupt’? There’s no such thing … absolutely preposterous! And, Kotlikoff thinks so as well, see immediately hereafter… ] The plan will involve accelerating some of the $33 billion in program terminations and reductions included in Obama's proposed budget for next year.

When Pretending Fails to Hide Bankruptcy: Laurence Kotlikoff ( Today in the WashingtonPost.Com ) Laurence Kotlikoff Feb 22, 2011

Feb. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Our country is bankrupt. It’s not bankrupt in 30 years or five years. It’s bankrupt today.

Want proof? Look at President Barack Obama’s 2010 budget. It showed a massive fiscal gap over the next 75 years, the closure of which requires immediate tax increases, spending cuts, or some combination totaling 8 percent of gross domestic product. To put 8 percent of GDP in perspective, this year’s employee and employer payroll taxes for Social Security and Medicare will amount to just 5 percent of GDP.

Actually, the picture is much worse. Nothing in economics says we should look out just 75 years when considering the present-value difference between future spending and future taxes. Over the full long-term, we need an extra 12 percent, not 8 percent, of GDP annually.

Seventy-five years seems like a long enough time to plan. It’s not. Had the Greenspan Commission, which “fixed” Social Security back in 1983, focused on the true long term we wouldn’t be sitting here now with Social Security 26 percent underfunded. The Social Security trustees, at least, have learned a lesson. The 26 percent figure is based on their infinite horizon fiscal- gap calculation.

But the real reason we can’t look out just 75 years is that the government’s cash flows (the difference between its annual taxes and non-interest spending) over any period of time, including the next 75 years, aren’t well defined. This reflects economics’ labeling problem. If you use different words to describe the receipts taken in and paid out each year by the government, you produce entirely different cash flows and an entirely different fiscal gap measured over any finite horizon.

Matter of Language

It’s only the value of the infinite horizon fiscal gap that is unaffected by the choice of labels of language. Take this year’s payroll tax contributions. Let’s call these transfers from workers to Uncle Sam “borrowing” by the government, rather than “payroll taxes,” since the money will be paid back as future benefits. If the future payback isn’t in full (equal to principal plus interest), we can call the difference a “retirement tax.” Presto! With this change of words, our 2011 deficit of about 10 percent of GDP is boosted another five points to 15 percent.

With one set of words, taxes are higher now and lower latter. With the other set of words, the opposite is true. But neither set of labels makes more economic sense than the other or changes what the government takes, on balance, from any person or business in any given year.

This is no surprise. The math of economics rules out an absolute measure of the deficit, just like the math of physics rules out an absolute measure of time.

Bottom Line

The bottom line, then, is that we need to look at the infinite-horizon fiscal gap not just for Social Security, but for the entire federal government. That analysis, based on the Congressional Budget Office’s long-term alternative fiscal scenario, shows an unfathomable fiscal gap of $202 trillion. And covering this gap requires coming up with the aforementioned 12 percent of GDP, forever.

If this gives you the willies, there’s a ready narcotic -- the president’s 2012 budget, which shows that most of our long- term fiscal problem has miraculously disappeared; the fiscal gap isn’t 12 percent of annual GDP. Nor is it 8 percent. It’s now 1.8 percent.

This fantastic improvement in our finances is due, we’re told, primarily to the Independent Payment Advisory Board. This board, to be established in 2014 (after the next election, of course) is charged with recommending cuts to Medicare and Medicaid providers when their costs grow too fast.

Repealing Cuts

We’ve had laws mandating such cuts for years, and they are routinely repealed. Indeed, President Obama signed the latest such repeal last June. But rather than laugh out loud at this cost-control mechanism, the Medicare trustees, three-quarters of whom were appointed by the president, assume in their 2010 report that these cuts will be made -- to the dollar. And the 2012 budget cites the report’s fictional forecast as its authoritative source.

No one takes the 2010 Medicare trustee report’s long-run projections seriously, least of all Richard Foster, Medicare’s chief actuary. Foster added this statement to the end of the report: “The financial projections shown in this report for Medicare do not represent a reasonable expectation…in either the short range…or the long range.”

This isn’t the first administration to conceal our long- term fiscal problem. Back in 1993, Alice Rivlin, then deputy director of the Office of Management and Budget, asked me and economists Alan Auerbach and Jagadeesh Gokhale to prepare a long-term fiscal gap/generational accounting for inclusion in President Bill Clinton’s 1994 budget.

Politics Triumphs

We worked for months on the analysis, but two days before the budget’s release, the study was excised from the budget. We were shocked, but, in retrospect, the politics are clear. The Clinton administration wanted to claim it was fiscally prudent and the study, which showed unofficial debt growing at enormous rates, showed the opposite.

The fiscal gap’s next near appearance in a president’s budget was in 2003. Treasury Secretary Paul O’Neill commissioned Gokhale and Kent Smetters to do the study. It showed a massive $45 trillion fiscal gap -- not a great basis for pushing tax cuts or introducing the prescription-drug benefit for seniors, known as Medicare Part D. O’Neill was ousted on Dec. 6, 2002, and a couple of days later the fiscal-gap study was discarded.

I’m not sure whether censoring the fiscal gap is more dishonorable than fudging it. What I do know is that we can’t assume our problems away and that I expected far better of this president when I voted for him.

--Editors: James Greiff, Steven Gittelson’

]

Libyan ruler clings to power as violence escalates (Washington Post) [ Clings? … As in a tight sweater … or maybe a straight jacket. Wow! Talk about delusional. ] Regime opens fire on protesters; Gaddafi calls supporters to arms (Washington Post) [ Pressure mounts on Gaddafi (Washington Post) [ That he was always a caricature of sorts, there is no question. That he’s totally burned out, there’s also no doubt; though they might argue in his defense that so was failed president dumbya bush … a point well taken … but look at the consequential pathetic state of pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt america … with the unlit torch passed to failed president wobama the b (for b*** s***) who pretends, or maybe in his alternate and fake reality just believes it’s lit. That he’s done, also fait accomplis, after 41 years … who cares. That he’s insane … now that’s quite another thing with greater worldwide implications, so, daffy… gadaffy… duck! Gaddafi vows to maintain hold on power Libyan strongman says he'll fight 'until the last drop of my blood' (Washington Post) [ His latter wish is the world’s command. ‘Something there is that doesn’t love a dictator, that wants them down’ … (Excuse me … I was thinking of walls and ‘Mending Wall’, Robert Frost http://albertpeia.com/RobertFrost.htm ). Libya Internet Shut Down Amid Protests, Per Multiple Reports [ Once again, as in Egypt, this, the internet, inherently global in nature is the lynchpin, tampering with or stifling same marking the end of any regime. Let this be a warning; viz., you cannot put the genie back in the bottle! 41 years? Gadaffy duck should duck ‘cause he’s done. I mean, look at him, he’s the singular equivalent of the multiple bushes. He’s totally burnt out (as much or more so than dumbya bush or mubarack) and quite done! ] Reports have emerged late Friday that Libya appears to have shut down its Internet due to widespread protests, less than a month after Egypt did the same. ] With rebels apparently controlling much of the eastern half of the country, the violence engulfing Libya is already the worst in more than a month of unrest that has toppled other regimes. ] He remains defiant even as high-level defections continue to weaken his government and rebels reportedly seize control of key swaths of nation. American evacuees describe 'long ordeal' on ferry (Washington Post) [ I’ve included this headline here, not for the article’s content but rather for the statement of one of said evacuees on network television news that he was told by the u.s. embassy that they’d have to fend for themselves and that they’re on their own. That is an important aspect of the fact-filled video presentation by Stansberry and Associates, infra, except that that will be the almost unimaginable position of the u.s. government when the almost unimaginable but inevitable happens here in pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt america. Don’t forget, they and their’s have plundered this nation, its treasury, people and have use each branch of this government to do so. I’ve experienced this first-hand in having to ‘fend for myself’ in what should have been a simple RICO case owing to the venality of those self-interested in the process (bribes, cover-up of crimes, etc. http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm ) ….. Why your local Hospital could soon shut down (Ad) http://www.stansberryresearch.com/pro/1011PSIENDVD/LPSILC43/PR The instant video from Stansberry and Associates is so well researched and succinctly presented that I’ve archived same on my website; also, because the facts and views presented comport with the facts and views I’ve presented on my site which not only do I believe to be correct, but are supported by the unequivocal documented facts. This is a must-view, must-see that I strongly recommend! The complete url ( 146 mb – approx. 1 hr. 17 min. ) : http://www.albertpeia.com/stansberrysinvestmentadvisory.flv ]

Why your local Hospital could soon shut down (Ad) http://www.stansberryresearch.com/pro/1011PSIENDVD/LPSILC43/PR [ The instant video from Stansberry and Associates is so well researched and succinctly presented that I’ve archived same on my website; also, because the facts and views presented comport with the facts and views I’ve presented on my site which not only do I believe to be correct, but are supported by the unequivocal documented facts. This is a must-view, must-see that I strongly recommend! The complete url ( 146 mb – approx. 1 hr. 17 min. ) : http://www.albertpeia.com/stansberrysinvestmentadvisory.flv ]

The U.S. market has had no such worries, and has continued its non-stop bull market to new highs.

It did stumble a bit this week, spooked by the spike-up in oil prices created by the spreading unrest in oil-producing countries, notably Libya. Yet in the week’s decline the Dow and S&P 500 fell less than 3%, hardly a blip on the long-term charts.

Short-term, the next ‘monthly strength period’ has arrived, when the market tends to be positive for the five-day period from the last trading day of the month through the first four days of the following month.

As I have written before, it is a quite consistent pattern. For instance, in 2010 the S&P 500 gained 143 points, or 12.8% for the year, but its gains on just the first three days of each month amounted to 229 points, or 20.5%. The pattern has pretty much continued so far this year, with nice gains in the first weeks of both January and February.

That raises the odds for a return to a positive market next week.

Yet, the events of the past week may have been a warning shot. There had already been enough potential catalysts for a market correction. This week added several more.

As most investors are aware, investor sentiment has been at levels of bullishness and confidence usually seen near market tops, and the major market indexes are as over-extended above their long-term 200-day moving averages as they usually get without at least a 10% to 12% correction down to retest the support at those moving averages. As noted, many important global stock markets, including China, Brazil, India and Hong Kong, have been in fairly significant corrections since November, and global markets, including the U.S., tend to move in tandem with each other in both rallies and corrections.

Now we have spiking oil prices. The 2003-2007 bull market ended in October, 2007 when the price of oil reached $96 a barrel. The 2007-2009 recession began three months later. After trading briefly above $100 a barrel on Thursday oil pulled back, but was still trading around $97 at the week’s end.

On Thursday it was reported that new home sales plunged an unexpected and huge 12.6% in January. It was not a good start for this year, after 2010 was the worst year for new home sales in almost half a century. Not providing much encouragement for coming months, it was also reported that applications for mortgages are at a 15-year low.

Then, on Friday it was reported that the economy was even weaker than previously thought in the December quarter. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for the quarter was unexpectedly revised down to only 2.8% from the previously reported 3.2%.

These events and reports – turmoil in the oil-producing countries that is more likely to spread than go away; spiking oil prices that tend to cut into U.S. economic growth (and add to global inflation pressures); news that the economy grew significantly slower in the 4^th quarter than previously thought – were more than enough reasons for the market to nosedive this week. But it only stumbled for a few days.

Yet it was enough to cause some concern and nervousness. That could be seen in the sharp drop in bullish investor sentiment, and the upturn in the number of pundits declaring the end of the bull market. The poll of its members by the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) this week shows the percentage of those who are bullish plunged to just 36.6% from readings above 50% just three weeks ago, and the near record high of 63% in late December.

Sentiment does reverse from high levels of bullishness near tops to increasingly pessimistic expectations as corrections develop.

So was this week’s stumble the beginning of a more serious correction?

The events and reports this week did provide more evidence that the stock market may be ahead of reality regarding prospects for the economy, and therefore corporate earnings, going forward, which should at least limit the market’s upside potential.

Limited upside potential equals more downside risk?

It might be wise to lighten up some into strength that may develop over the next few days during the ‘monthly strength period.’

Ready to Rally or Ready to Blow? The One Indicator That's in the Know Maierhofer, On Friday February 25, 2011, 7:35 pm EST

After publishing this article on Tuesday, a lot of people asked me: 'So, what did percentR tell you about the rally. Is it over?'

Unfortunately the message of this accurate but little-known indicator wasn't as clear as I hoped, but it was nevertheless valuable. Combining percentR with my other tenchnical analysis, I came to the following conclusion (published for ETF Profit Strategy subscribers in the Wednesday update):

'It looks like stocks want to rally and retrace some of the points lost since last Friday.' Based on percentR the up trend may be over, but it's too early to tell. If stocks break out above the safety level outlined in the same update, the rally will be back on track.

Please find below the original article for your reading pleasure:

Low-Risk. The term 'low-risk' has the same appeal in the investment world as the enticing little word 'free' in the advertising world.

Some advertising executives claim that 'free' is the most powerful word in the ad world. 'Low-risk' might be the most powerful concept in the investing universe.

If you read the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter you are very familiar with the term low-risk entry. If you don't, here's a quick summary and crash course of an indicator that's been 100% accurate over the past 6 months.

Low risk entries for various indexes are identified or triggered by a relative strength indicator called percentR. PercentR is expressed on a scale from 1 - 100. Readings above 80 are considered overbought, readings below 20 oversold. If you read the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter you are very familiar with the term low-risk entry. If you don't, here's a quick summary and crash course of an indicator that's been 100% accurate over the past 6 months.

Uncannily Accurate

A picture says more than a thousand words and the chart sheds more light on the value of percentR. As you can tell by the red line, following the W bottom in November (not shown in the chart), percentR spiked above 80 (first yellow circle) around S&P 1,210. This was the initial buy signal. [chart]

With two exceptions, percentR remained above 80 ever since. The two dips below 80 (yellow circles) on January 19 and 28 triggered a low-risk entry. Even though investors were worried about riots in Egypt, according to percentR it was time to buy.

This bullish low-risk entry is valid as long as the underlying index (in this case the S&P 500) does not close below that day's low (white line). In both instances, the S&P (SNP: ^GSPC) stayed above that low and went on to rally over 5%.

Other Low-Risk Entries

PercentR works with stocks and indexes alike. Similar low-risk entries were identified by the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter for the Dow Jones (DJI: ^DJI), Nasdaq-100 (Nasdaq: QQQQ - News), Nasdaq Composite (Nasdaq: ^IXIC), and the Financial Select Sector SPDR (NYSEArca: XLF - News) on January 28. The Russell 2000 (Chicago Options: ^RUT) was the weakest index and registered its low-risk entry sooner.

Corrections are Healthy, if ...

'Corrections are healthy' is one of many ambiguous Wall Street sayings. If you judge the current 'bull market' purely on this statement, this market is one sick puppy - there hasn't been more than a 2.5% correction in nearly a quarter - and needs a serious correction to be jolted back into healthy territory.

Put yourself in a time capsule and zoom back to April 2010 when the major U.S. indexes declined nearly 20% before the promise of QE2 resurrected stocks. There was little conviction then that corrections are healthy. The correction had rattled the investing masses and shaken out many stockholders before the market went on to rally again.

PercentR is the canary in the coalmine that identifies a deeper correction. No significant sell off happens without a failed low-risk entry.

A failed low-risk entry occurs when the indexes close below the low of the day that triggers the low-risk entry (white lines on the chart). The last failed low-risk entry happened in November 2010 when stocks chopped around for a few weeks and ultimately lost about 5%. Another failed low-risk entry flashed a sell signal on August 11 and ushered in a 21 day, 8% sell off.

The Right Tool for the Job

Any craftsman will tell you that there are limitations to any tool, but there's a tool for each job. percentR is the right tool for the current job.

After a parabolic rally, the job at hand is to distinguish whether pull backs are a buying opportunity or a warning signal. Should you buy the dips or step on the sidelines (or even short the market)?…’

The REAL Unemployment Rate Is 22% The Daily Bail | It remains above 22% with the February update.

Libya’s Turmoil Leads to Highest February Gas Prices in 21 Years ABC News | Crude oil touched nearly $102 a barrel in Asia this morning amid fears that Libya could halt exports.

IMF Austerity Measures Lead to Violent Riots in Greece AFP | The confrontation occurred near the finance ministry.

Saudi Arabia Raises Oil Output By 8% To Over 9 Million Barrels Per Day As we reported yesterday, Saudi Arabia which following its latest recreation of Helicopter Ben’s money parachuting experiment to buy its people’s love, suddenly has found itself in a fiscal crunch, has no choice but to increase general oil sales revenues.

It’s Not an Arab Revolution … It’s a GLOBAL Revolution While the revolution in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and other North African countries may seem like an “Arab revolt”, it’s actually worldwide.

What You Need To Know About Buying Silver At A Time When Even The Canadian Mint Says “It Has Sold Everything It Has” Even as silver performed some unprecedented fireworks today, plunging on what was a margin hike in… crude, the metal continues to trade just below its post-Hunt Brother highs.

Adjusted Monetary Base Goes Vertical Just in case there was any confusion in the interpretation of the M2 chart, here is the latest just released Adjusted Monetary Base.

21 Signs That The Once Great U.S. Economy Is Being Gutted, Neutered, Defanged, Declawed And Deindustrialized Once upon a time… The Economic Collapse Feb 12, 2011 ‘Once upon a time, the United States was the greatest industrial powerhouse that the world has ever seen. Our immense economic machinery was the envy of the rest of the globe and it provided the foundation for the largest and most vibrant middle class in the history of the world. But now the once great U.S. economic machine is being dismantled piece by piece. The U.S. economy is being gutted, neutered, defanged, declawed and deindustrialized and very few of our leaders even seem to care. It was the United States that once showed the rest of the world how to mass produce televisions and automobiles and airplanes and computers, but now our industrial base is being ripped to shreds. Tens of thousands of our factories and millions of our jobs have been shipped overseas. Many of our proudest manufacturing cities have been transformed into “post-industrial” hellholes that nobody wants to live in anymore.

Meanwhile, wave after wave of shiny new factories is going up in nations such as China, India and Brazil. This is great for those countries, but for the millions of American workers that desperately needed the jobs that have been sent overseas it is not so great.

This is the legacy of globalism. Multinational corporations now have the choice whether to hire U.S. workers or to hire workers in countries where it is legal to pay slave labor wages. The “great sucking sound” that Ross Perot warned us about so long ago is actually happening, and it has left tens of millions of Americans without good jobs.

So what is to become of a nation that consumes more than it ever has and yet continues to produce less and less?

Well, the greatest debt binge in the history of the world has enabled us to maintain (and even increase) our standard of living for several decades, but all of that debt is starting to really catch up with us.

The American people seem to be very confused about what is happening to us because most of them thought that the party was going to last forever. In fact, most of them still seem convinced that our brightest economic days are still ahead.

After all, every time we have had a “recession” in the past things have always turned around and we have gone on to even greater things, right?

Well, what most Americans simply fail to understand is that we are like a car that is having its insides ripped right out. Our industrial base is being gutted right in front of our eyes.

Most Americans don’t think much about our “trade deficit”, but it is absolutely central to what is happening to our economy. Every year, we buy far, far more from the rest of the world than they buy from us.

In 2010, the U.S. trade deficit was just a whisker under $500 billion. This is money that we could have all spent inside the United States that would have supported thousands of American factories and millions of American jobs.

Instead, we sent all of those hundreds of billions of dollars overseas in exchange for a big pile of stuff that we greedily consumed. Most of that stuff we probably didn’t need anyway.

Since we spent almost $500 billion more with the rest of the world than they spent with us, at the end of the year the rest of the world was $500 billion wealthier and the American people were collectively $500 billion poorer.

That means that the collective “economic pie” that we are all dividing up is now $500 billion smaller.

Are you starting to understand why times suddenly seem so “hard” in the United States?

Meanwhile, jobs and businesses continue to fly out of the United States at a blinding pace.

This is a national crisis.

We simply cannot expect to continue to have a “great economy” if we allow our economy to be deindustrialized.

A nation that consumes far more than it produces is not going to be wealthy for long.

The following are 21 signs that the once great U.S. economy is being gutted, neutered, defanged, declawed and deindustrialized….

#1 The U.S. trade deficit with the rest of the world rose to 497.8 billion dollars in 2010. That represented a 32.8% increase from 2009.

#2 The U.S. trade deficit with China rose to an all-time record of 273.1 billion dollars in 2010. This is the largest trade deficit that one nation has had with another nation in the history of the world.

#3 The U.S. trade deficit with China in 2010 was 27 times larger than it was back in 1990.

#4 In the years since 1975, the United States had run a total trade deficit of 7.5 trillion dollars with the rest of the world.

#5 The United States spends more than 4 dollars on goods and services from China for every one dollar that China spends on goods and services from the United States.

#6 In 1959, manufacturing represented 28 percent of all U.S. economic output. In 2008, it represented only 11.5 percent and it continues to fall.

#7 The number of net jobs gained by the U.S. economy during this past decade was smaller than during any other decade since World War 2.

#8 The Bureau of Labor Statistics originally predicted that the U.S. economy would create approximately 22 million jobs during the decade of the 2000s, but it turns out that the U.S. economy only produced about 7 million jobsduring that time period.

#9 Japan now manufactures about 5 million more automobiles than the United States does.

#10 China has now become the world’s largest exporter of high technology products.

#11 Manufacturing employment in the U.S. computer industry is actually lower in 2010 than it was in 1975.

#12 The United States now has 10 percent fewer “middle class jobs” than it did just ten years ago.

#13 According to Tax Notes, between 1999 and 2008 employment at the foreign affiliates of U.S. parent companies increased an astounding 30 percent to 10.1 million. During that exact same time period, U.S. employment at American multinational corporations declined 8 percent to 21.1 million.

#14 Back in 1970, 25 percent of all jobs in the United States were manufacturing jobs. Today, only 9 percent of the jobs in the United States are manufacturing jobs.

#15 Back in 1998, the United States had 25 percent of the world’s high-tech export market and China had just 10 percent. Ten years later, the United States had less than 15 percent and China’s share had soared to 20 percent.

#16 The number of Americans that have become so discouraged that they have given up searching for work completely now stands at an all-time high.

#17 Half of all American workers now earn $505 or less per week.

#18 The United States has lost a staggering 32 percent of its manufacturing jobs since the year 2000.

#19 Since 2001, over 42,000 U.S. factories have closed down for good.

#20 In 2008, 1.2 billion cellphones were sold worldwide. So how many of them were manufactured inside the United States? Zero.

#21 Ten years ago, the “employment rate” in the United States was about 64%. Since then it has been constantly declining and now the “employment rate” in the United States is only about 58%. So where did all of those jobs go?

The world is changing.

We are bleeding national wealth at a pace that is almost unimaginable.

We are literally being drained dry.

Did you know that China now has the world’s fastest train and the world’s largest high-speed rail network?

They were able to afford those things with all of the money that we have been sending them.

How do you think all of those oil barons in the Middle East became so wealthy and could build such opulent palaces?

They got rich off of all the money that we have been sending them.

Meanwhile, once great U.S. cities such as Detroit, Michigan now look like war zones.

Back in 1985, the U.S. trade deficit with China was about 6 million dollars for the entire year.

As mentioned above, the U.S. trade deficit with China for 2010 was over 273billion dollars.

What a difference 25 years can make, eh?

What do you find when you go into a Wal-Mart, a Target or a dollar store today?

You find row after row after row of stuff made in China and in other far away countries.

It can be more than a bit difficult to find things that are actually made inside the United States anymore. In fact, there are quite a few industries that have completely and totally left the United States. For certain product categories it is now literally impossible to buy something made in America.

So what are we going to do with our tens of millions of blue collar workers?

Should we just tell them that their jobs are not ever coming back so they better learn phrases such as “Welcome to Wal-Mart” and “Would you like fries with that”?

For quite a few years, the gigantic debt bubble that we were living in kind of insulated us from feeling the effects of the deindustrialization of America.

But now the pain is starting to kick in.

It has now become soul-crushingly difficult to find a job in America today.

According to Gallup, the U.S. unemployment rate is currently 10.1% and when you throw in “underemployed” workers that figure rises to 19.6%.

Competition for jobs has become incredibly fierce and it is going to stay that way.

The great U.S. economic machine is being ripped apart and dismantled right in full view of us all.

This is not a “conservative” issue or a “liberal” issue. This is an American issue.

The United States is rapidly being turned into a “post-industrial” wasteland.

It is time to wake up America.’

This is that unmentionable reality as I alluded to earlier on close scrutiny of the data, ‘that stock prices have been manipulated to the upside beyond any and all rational basis‘ and as I previously wrote: Perception vs. Reality: Four Reasons to Remain Cautious on U.S. Equities [ Hey, Abbott … That’s Lou Costello calling him from the other side … Wake up! … Just kidding … but I’m not kidding when I say that contrary to Abbott’s view, infra, if you’re not a successful market timer you should rethink your position as an equity investor. Moreover, in contradistinction to Mr. Abbott’s implication, if you’re not a successful speculator (there are very few), you should rethink your position as a short seller: reason…, you could be wiped out, lose more than your principal, forced to cover (that’s why the same is considered a contrary market indicator, particularly in these manipulated, contrived markets). When I did my MBA thesis (1977, NYU, GBA, Eve.Prog., Finance), a review of the data revealed even then (and much more so now with computer programmed market manipulation) that the market remained biased / propped up (artificially, especially now with computerized manipulation) to the upside for far longer periods of time than for the downside which meant that dollar-cost averaging (through regular, periodic investment, for example), meant you were accumulating shares at higher prices generally for longer periods of time skewing the average cost to the upside (dollar-cost-averaging in declining markets was ok if analysis / forecast saw resurgence based on fundamentals - now absent – which is timing, as even senile wall street / gov’t shill Buffet would attest, that ‘greedy when others are fearful thing’). Abbott discusses perception which is the psychological factor involved in security evaluation / analysis; but investors need not and should become nuts themselves, particularly when as now, the inmates are running the asylum. ] Abbott ‘Perception determines short-term market movements. The difference between perception and reality determines the direction of major market trends. Though I generally try to avoid making macro prognostications, I believe bottom-up analysis can be informative about the current level of stock prices. I want to share what my recent work tells me about where stocks are (and where they might be headed). I will outline some various nuggets of collective wisdom that are taken for granted right now by stock bulls, and I will attempt to demonstrate how reality is likely to differ from these perceptions.

First, a disclaimer. This is not a market timing call. At all times, I stay away from market timing predictions. I think that's a loser's game in the long run. Even if I'm correct about the discrepancies between the following perceptions and realities, there's no saying when people will change their minds or shift their focuses. That said, let's dive in.

Perception vs. Reality #1
Perception: Low Interest Rates, Questionable Bond Outlook Means Stocks are Attractive
Reality: Interest Rates Are Being Artificially and Deliberately Manipulated

It's no secret that the Federal Reserve's low interest rate policy and quantitative easing efforts have held interest rates very low for very long. However, when people talk about stock market implications of bond yields, they rarely mention the fact that bond yields are artificially low. In an unmanipulated market, bond prices and stock valuations should be related, but I regard that connection as highly dubious right now. Investors who say that stocks deserve higher multiples (lower earnings yields) because bond yields are so low may well be setting themselves up for disappointing returns/frustrating losses when bond prices normalize. Again, this isn't a market timing call, and yields may remain low for quite some time. But, eventually this discrepancy will correct itself, and stock performance is likely to suffer at that time.

Perception vs. Reality #2
Perception: Earnings Growth Has Been Strong and Will Remain That Way
Reality: Top-Line Growth Will Have to Pick Up; Cost-Cutting has Run Its Course

Earnings growth has certainly been robust, but much of the strength has come from companies running lean cost structures and wringing as much efficiency as possible out of their employees and their assets. Though the recession has ended, the economy is not yet healthy enough to fuel strong sales growth. Companies can only boost profits by cutting costs and increasing productivity for so long. Therefore, top-line growth will have to play a larger role going forward than it has over the past 4-6 quarters. Whether or not economic growth is strong enough to drive revenue increases is unsure, but the current level of stock prices undoubtedly assumes it is. Any stagnation of the recovery and concomitant sluggish sales will likely hit stock prices.

Perception vs. Reality #3
Perception: European Debt Crisis Drives Short-Term Volatility, but It's Not a Long-Term Concern
Reality: Crisis May Be a Harbinger of What's to Come in the U.S. if States, the Feds Don't Improve Balance Sheets

So far, turmoil in Greece and Ireland has served only as a temporary headwind to U.S. stocks. In keeping with the investment world's increasingly short-term focus, people seem more concerned with what fiscal crises in Europe mean for U.S. stocks over the coming days and months than with what they might mean down the road. I believe that this interpretation misses the mark. Since the U.S. fiscal situtation is generally considered to be stronger than that in many European countries, U.S. federal and municipal debt issuance has been relatively smooth, and interest rates have only risen modestly. If the U.S. doesn't get serious about its fiscal woes, eventually the crisis will arrive on American shores. There's no way of telling when this might happen, but the current level of stock prices seems to imply that it never will.

Here's the problem with that. To fix the federal balance sheet and/or to improve state and municipal balance sheets, legislators will have to raise taxes and/or cut spending. Tax hikes and spending cuts both reduce consumer spending. This hurts growth. There's no way around this. Stocks can certainly continue to rise for some time, but austerity will be bearish if/when it comes. If it doesn't come, we're in for a much bigger crisis some time down the road.

Perception vs. Reality #4
Perception: Everywhere You Look, You See Good Companies at Cheap Prices
Reality: It's Hard to Find Genuine Bargains, but There are Intriguing Short Prospects Everywhere

There is no shortage of stock market commentators who claim that they see bargains everywhere they look. Perhaps I'm not looking in the right places, but I've been having a difficult and increasingly impossible time finding good companies at reasonable prices. I use similar criteria to assess long and short investments, and I find intriguing shorts in lots of sectors right now. This tells me that valuations are stretched. Certainly they can become more so before we get a selloff, but every day that stocks rally, they get more expensive.

I've written on Seeking Alpha about a number of stocks which I regard as expensive (CRM, OPEN, GMCR), and take my word for it: there are plenty more than these whose shares I do not want to own at present levels. A few weeks ago, I also mused about the Facebook-Goldman deal and argued that this valuation is indicative of excessive investor enthusiasm. Bargains are hard to find, and as valuations go up, so does positive sentiment. While this is not a prediction of an impending correction or bear market, it is a message of caution for people who think stocks are cheap right now.

All that said, I always try to consider both sides of any investment issue, and there are some reasons for optimism. Job growth has shown signs of improvement, and some economic data have been increasingly (though not uniformly) positive. The Federal Reserve remains accommodative, and I'm skeptical about whether or not there is political will for austerity. For these reasons, stocks could continue onward and upward. That said, I see too many reasons for caution, and investors are turning a blind eye to these concerns as their complacency rises.’

12 Economic Collapse Scenarios That We Could Potentially See In 2011 What could cause an economic collapse in 2011? Well, unfortunately there are quite a few “nightmare scenarios” that could plunge the entire globe into another massive financial crisis.
The Economic Collapse Jan 20, 2011 ‘What could cause an economic collapse in 2011? Well, unfortunately there are quite a few “nightmare scenarios” that could plunge the entire globe into another massive financial crisis. The United States, Japan and most of the nations in Europe are absolutely drowning in debt. The Federal Reserve continues to play reckless games with the U.S. dollar. The price of oil is skyrocketing and the global price of food just hit a new record high. Food riots are already breaking out all over the world. Meanwhile, the rampant fraud and corruption going on in world financial markets is starting to be exposed and the whole house of cards could come crashing down at any time. Most Americans have no idea that a horrific economic collapse could happen at literally any time. There is no way that all of this debt and all of this financial corruption is sustainable. At some point we are going to reach a moment of “total system failure”.

So will it be soon? Let’s hope not. Let’s certainly hope that it does not happen in 2011. Many of us need more time to prepare. Most of our families and friends need more time to prepare. Once this thing implodes there isn’t going to be an opportunity to have a “do over”. We simply will not be able to put the toothpaste back into the tube again.

So we had all better be getting prepared for hard times. The following are 12 economic collapse scenarios that we could potentially see in 2011….

#1 U.S. debt could become a massive crisis at any moment. China is saying all of the right things at the moment, but many analysts are openly worried about what could happen if China suddenly decides to start dumping all of the U.S. debt that they have accumulated. Right now about the only thing keeping U.S. government finances going is the ability to borrow gigantic amounts of money at extremely low interest rates. If anything upsets that paradigm, it could potentially have enormous consequences for the entire world financial system.

#2 Speaking of threats to the global financial system, it turns out that “quantitative easing 2″ has had the exact opposite effect that Ben Bernanke planned for it to have. Bernanke insisted that the main goal of QE2 was to lower interest rates, but instead all it has done is cause interest rates to go up substantially. If Bernanke this incompetent or is he trying to mess everything up on purpose?

#3 The debt bubble that the entire global economy is based on could burst at any time and throw the whole planet into chaos. According to a new report from the World Economic Forum, the total amount of credit in the world increased from $57 trillion in 2000 to $109 trillion in 2009. The WEF says that now the world is going to need another $100 trillion in credit to support projected “economic growth” over the next decade. So is this how the new “global economy” works? We just keep doubling the total amount of debt every decade?

#4 As the U.S. government and the Federal Reserve continue to pump massive amounts of new dollars into the system, the floor could fall out from underneath the U.S. dollar at any time. The truth is that we are already starting to see inflation really accelerate and everyone pretty much acknowledges that official U.S. governments figures for inflation are an absolute joke. According to one new study, the cost of college tuition has risen 286% over the last 20 years, and the cost of “hospital, nursing-home and adult-day-care services” rose 269% during those same two decades. All of this happened during a period of supposedly “low” inflation. So what are price increases going to look like when we actually have “high” inflation?

#5 One of the primary drivers of global inflation during 2011 could be the price of oil. A large number of economists are now projecting that the price of oil could surge well past $100 dollars a barrel in 2011. If that happens, it is going to put significant pressure on the price of almost everything else in the entire global economy. In fact, as I have explained previously, the higher the price of oil goes, the faster the U.S. economy will decline.

#6 Food inflation is already so bad in some areas of the globe that it is setting off massive food riots in nations such as Tunisia and Algeria. In fact, there have been reports of people setting themselves on fire all over the Middle East as a way to draw attention to how desperate they are. So what is going to happen if global food prices go up another 10 or 20 percent and food riots spread literally all over the globe during 2011?

#7 There are persistent rumors that simply will not go away of massive physical gold and silver shortages. Demand for precious metals has never been higher. So what is going to happen when many investors begin to absolutely insist on physical delivery of their precious metals? What is going to happen when the fact that far, far, far more “paper gold” and “paper silver” has been sold than has ever actually physically existed in the history of the planet starts to come out? What would that do to the price of gold and silver?

#8 The U.S. housing industry could plunge the U.S. economy into another recession at any time. The real estate market is absolutely flooded with homes and virtually nobody is buying. This massive oversupply of homes means that the construction of new homes has fallen off a cliff. In 2010, only 703,000 single family, multi-family and manufactured homes were completed. This was a new record low, and it was down 17% from the previous all-time record which had just been set in 2009.

#9 A combination of extreme weather and disease could make this an absolutely brutal year for U.S. farmers. This winter we have already seen thousands of new cold weather and snowfall records set across the United States. Now there is some very disturbing news emerging out of Florida of an “incurable bacteria” that is ravaging citrus crops all over Florida. Is there a reason why so many bad things are happening all of a sudden?

#10 The municipal bond crisis could go “supernova” at any time. Already, investors are bailing out of bonds at a frightening pace. State and local government debt is now sitting at an all-time high of 22 percent of U.S. GDP. According to Meredith Whitney, the municipal bond crisis that we are facing is a gigantic threat to our financial system….

“It has tentacles as wide as anything I’ve seen. I think next to housing this is the single most important issue in the United States and certainly the largest threat to the U.S. economy.”

Former Los Angeles mayor Richard Riordan is convinced that things are so bad that literally 90% of our states and cities could go bankrupt over the next five years….

#11 Of course on top of everything else, the quadrillion dollar derivatives bubble could burst at any time. Right now we are watching the greatest financial casino in the history of the globe spin around and around and around and everyone is hoping that at some point it doesn’t stop. Today, most money on Wall Street is not made by investing in good business ideas. Rather, most money on Wall Street is now made by making the best bets. Unfortunately, at some point the casino is going to come crashing down and the game will be over.

#12 The biggest wildcard of all is war. The Korean peninsula came closer to war in 2010 than it had in decades. The Middle East could literally explode at any time. We live in a world where a single weapon can take out an entire city in an instant. All it would take is a mid-size war or a couple of weapons of mass destruction to throw the entire global economy into absolute turmoil.

Once again, let us hope that none of these economic collapse scenarios happens in 2011.

However, we have got to realize that we can’t keep dodging these bullets forever.

As bad as 2010 was, the truth is that it went about as good as any of us could have hoped. Things are still pretty stable and times are still pretty good right now.

But instead of using these times to “party”, we should be using them to prepare.

A really, really vicious economic storm is coming and it is going to be a complete and total nightmare. Get ready, hold on tight, and say your prayers.’

Poor Recovery: The Problem Is Institutional [ Well it’s true that the problem is institutional as in pervasively corrupt, incompetent, nonproductive in real terms relative to their cost / damage (still no pros on the wall street fraud which is ongoing in terms of the last crisis, the worthless paper marked to anything, and the current bubble fraud that’s high-frequency computerized churn-and-earn high-frequency commissioned / sold into, 360 tons of $100 bills disappear in Iraq, etc.. What do they get paid for?) ( Peter Schiff: Washington a parasite to economy ‘US foreclosures hit record highs in 2010, but that may not be the worst of it. 2011 may be even worse. Meanwhile, JP Morgan Chase exceeded market expectations, announcing a 47% rise in quarterly profits and released details on a $28.1 billion pay and bonus pool. Peter Schiff, the President of Euro Pacific Capital said Washington and Wall Street are becoming one force and are sucking the underlying American dry like a parasite’.); but the problem is structural, as in transfer of jobs, industries, etc. (among the sources of the huge over-compensation to wall street, company executives), never to return in any meaningful sense; and as in the defacto bankruptcy of the nation with insurmountable record debt / deficits or stated another way, broke. Unlike in the past, once beyond the propaganda, rhetoric, and smoke and mirrors / obfuscation, there is no prospective way for america to grow its way out, nor are there funds in real money with which to do it. Quite simply, america’s broke / bankrupt in every which way. ] Loundsbury ‘Harold Meyerson, Op Ed Columnist at The Washington Post, has hit the nail right on the head, in the opinion of GEI. Meyerson says the debate about whether the recession and poor recovery is a cyclical problem or a structural problem is misguided. He says the problem is institutional - - - and is he ever right!

In a column last week, Myerson points out that the devastation of The Great Recession has fallen disproportionately on the blue collar population, those without a college degree. And he traces the rolling over of median family income in this century, not just in the downturn, but since the turn of the century. Even at the peak, in 2007, median family income was less than in 2000.

What Meyerson doesn't point out is that average incomes have faired better in the 21st century and in all of the past 50 years. In fact, average family income has risen more than 2.5 times as much and median income over the last 30 years. Why is this important? Because the more there is a fat tail of ever higher incomes for a few, the greater the difference between average and median income becomes.

Myerson says:

The great sociologist William Julius Wilson has long argued that the key to the unraveling of the lives of the African American poor was the decline in the number of "marriageable males" as work disappeared from the inner city. Much the same could now be said of working-class whites in neighborhoods that may not look like the ghettos of Cleveland or Detroit but in which productive economic activity is increasingly hard to find.

This grim new reality has yet to inform our debate over how to come back from this mega-recession. Those who believe our downturn is cyclical argue that job-creating public spending can restore us to prosperity, while those who believe it's structural - that we have too many carpenters, say, and not enough nurses - believe that we should leave things be while American workers acquire new skills and enter different lines of work. But there's a third way to look at the recession: that it's institutional, that it's the consequence of the decisions by leading banks and corporations to stop investing in the job-creating enterprises that were the key to broadly shared prosperity.

Since Meyerson has chosen income disparity as a cornerstone of his argument, let's look at how incomes have grown over the last 50 years. These are shown in the following graph, not adjusted for inflation.

click to enlarge images [chart]

Real median income and average income seem to grow similarly in the 1950s and 1960s, the growth of average income starts to pull away in the mid-1960s and appears to continue to gain gound for the the next 40+ years. The more average income deviates from median income the more money is found in the high income tail on the distribution curve. This is often called a "fat tail", which is very appropriate in this discussion because that is where the fat cats are. The fat tail has not gotten so because ten times as many people equaled the incomes of the former fat cats, but more because a few fat cats have received 10 times the income. This is exemplified by the often quoted statistic that average CEO salaries were 40x average worker pay 50 years ago and today are more like 400x.

The change income distribution that seems to be appearing in the above graph becomes more apparent in the following graph where real income gains are shown for the last six decades starting with the ten years from 1949 - 1959 (the 1950s) and ending with 1999 - 2009 (the 2000s). [chart]

The 1950s and 60s were real boom years. Starting with the 1970s a lower level of income growth was established, but even that lower level could not be maintained in the 2000s.

After the 1950s every decade has seen average real income grow more than the median. The fat tail has gotten fatter over the past half century in every decade, without exception. Yes the average did decline in the 2000s, but the median declined 76% more!

The most dramatic pattern of change is evident when the data is divided into two halves: 1949 to 1979 and 1979 - 2009. This is done in the following graph: [chart]

For thirty years after World War II the wealth of the country increased in a balanced manner. The average income containing the greater contribution from the top earners of the day, grew at a rate very similar to the income growth of the broader population, represented by the median.

Yes there were "fat cats" and they had significantly larger incomes than the bulk of the population. And these top incomes grew over those three decades, but at almost the same rate as the majority of the populace.

Then something happened. From 1979-2009 it appears that the American pie suddenly got smaller. In the later three decades the real median income growth was less than 10% of the rate seen from 1949 to 1979. And as the pie got smaller, the fat cats took a much larger share. The average income grew at a rate 254% that of the median income. You might say that, as the cow gave less milk, the top of the economic ladder skimmed more and more cream off the top.

Meyerson identifies the force majuere to be corporate America:

Our multinational companies still invest, of course - just not at home. A study by the Business Roundtable and the U.S. Council Foundation found that the share of the profits of U.S.-based multinationals that came from their foreign affiliates had increased from 17 percent in 1977 and 27 percent in 1994 to 48.6 percent in 2006. As the companies' revenue from abroad has increased, their dependence on American consumers has diminished. The equilibrium among production, wages and purchasing power - the equilibrium that Henry Ford famously recognized when he upped his workers' pay to an unheard-of $5 a day in 1913 so they could afford to buy the cars they made, the equilibrium that became the model for 20th-century American capitalism - has been shattered. Making and selling their goods abroad, U.S. multinationals can slash their workforces and reduce their wages at home while retaining their revenue and increasing their profits. And that's exactly what they've done.

Meyerson doesn't get into some of the other areas that might be brought to bear on the current condition of the American economy:

He doesn't address the fact that the U.S. ranks below some third world countries in education.
He doesn't discuss the increasing burden of health care, both because costs have been running out of control and because an ever increasing portion of the population is kept from making the contribution they might have otherwise because of poor health.
He doesn't discuss the capture of much potential domestic capital by financial engineers who find it much easier to get rich in a rigged casino than to make money the old fashioned way.

Part of the problem is that Americans have fallen into the way of the easiest path, where, either by credit card or by making quick trades, the desires of the moment are satisfied with no seemingly current cost.

It seems that few want to think about the needs of tomorrow. This is true starting with the masses who kiss off the idea of working hard in school to prepare for what they will need 20 years down the road. This is also true of the "capitalist" who finds that skimming a few percent off each of many deals a year to get quick, large quarterly returns is much easier than investing and building something that will will make much larger returns extending over decades and producing things of real economic utility.

There are a number of things that Meyerson does not address, but if you want to hit one nail at a time, I think he has picked the baddest nail in the plank. He finishes his column thusly:

Our economic woes, then, are not simply cyclical or structural. They are also - chiefly - institutional, the consequence of U.S. corporate behavior that has plunged us into a downward cycle of underinvestment, underemployment and under-consumption. Our solutions must be similarly institutional, requiring, for starters, the seating of public and worker representatives on corporate boards. Short of that, there will be no real prospects for reversing America's downward mobility.

If we were to address all the other issues I mentioned previously and did not address the institutional problem Meterson has identified, we would not ultimately solve our economic puzzle.’

20 Shocking New Economic Records That Were Set In 2010 2010 was quite a year, wasn’t it? 2010 will be remembered for a lot of things, but for those living in the United States, one of the main things that last year will be remembered for is economic decline…The Economic Collapse Jan 14, 2011 ‘2010 was quite a year, wasn’t it? 2010 will be remembered for a lot of things, but for those living in the United States, one of the main things that last year will be remembered for is economic decline. The number of foreclosure filings set a new record, the number of home repossessions set a new record, the number of bankruptcies went up again, the number of Americans that became so discouraged that they simply quit looking for work reached a new all-time high and the number of Americans on food stamps kept setting a brand new record every single month. Meanwhile, U.S. government debt reached record highs, state government debt reached record highs and local government debt reached record highs. What a mess! In fact, even many of the “good” economic records that were set during 2010 were indications of underlying economic weakness. For example, the price of gold set an all-time record during 2010, but one of the primary reasons for the increase in the price of gold was that the U.S. dollar was rapidly losing value. Most Americans had been hoping that 2010 would be the beginning of better times, but unfortunately economic conditions just kept getting worse.

So will things improve in 2011? That would be nice, but at this point there are not a whole lot of reasons to be optimistic about the economy. The truth is that we are trapped in a period of long-term economic decline and we are now paying the price for decades of horrible decisions.

Amazingly, many of our politicians and many in the mainstream media have declared that “the recession is over” and that the U.S. economy is steadily improving now.

Well, if anyone tries to tell you that the economy got better in 2010, just show them the statistics below. That should shut them up for a while.

The following are 20 new economic records that were set during 2010….

#1 An all-time record of 2.87 million U.S. households received a foreclosure filing in 2010.

#2 The number of homes that were actually repossessed reached the 1 million mark for the first time ever during 2010.

#3 The price of gold moved above $1400 an ounce for the first time ever during 2010.

#4 According to the American Bankruptcy Institute, approximately 1.53 million consumer bankruptcy petitions were filed in 2010, which was up 9 percent from 1.41 million in 2009. This was the highest number of personal bankruptcies we have seen since the U.S. Congress substantially tightened U.S. bankruptcy law several years ago.

#5 At one point during 2010, the average time needed to find a job in the United States had risen to an all-time record of 35.2 weeks.

#6 Back in 1970, 25 percent of all jobs in the United States were manufacturing jobs. Today, only 9 percent of the jobs in the United States are manufacturing jobs, which is believed to be a new record low.

#7 The number of Americans working part-time jobs “for economic reasons” was the highest it has been in at least five decades during 2010.

#8 The number of American workers that are so discouraged that they have given up searching for work reached an all-time high near the end of 2010.

#9 Government spending continues to set new all-time records. In fact, at the moment the U.S. government is spending approximately 6.85 million dollars every single minute.

#10 The number of Americans on food stamps surpassed 43 million by the end of 2010. This was a new all-time record, and government officials fully expect the number of Americans enrolled in the program to continue to increase throughout 2011.

#11 The number of Americans on Medicaid surpassed 50 million for the first time ever in 2010.

#12 The U.S. Census Bureau originally announced that 43.6 million Americans are now living in poverty and according to them that was the highest number of Americans living in poverty that they had ever recorded in 51 years of record-keeping. But now the Census Bureau says that they miscalculated and that the real number of poor Americans is actually 47.8 million.

#13 According to the FDIC, 157 banks failed during 2010. That was the highest number of bank failures that the United States has experienced in any single year during the past decade.

#14 The Federal Reserve brought in a record $80.9 billion in profits during 2010. They returned $78.4 billion of that to the U.S. Treasury, but the real story is that thanks to the Federal Reserve’s continual debasement of our currency, the U.S. dollar was worth less in 2010 than it ever had been before.

#15 It is projected that the major financial firms on Wall Street will pay out an all-time record of $144 billion in compensation for 2010.

#16 Americans now owe more than $881 billion on student loans, which is a new all-time record.

#17 In July, sales of new homes in the United States declined to the lowest level ever recorded.

#18 According to Zillow, U.S. housing prices have now declined a whopping 26 percent since their peak in June 2006. Amazingly, this is even farther than house prices fell during the Great Depression. From 1928 to 1933, U.S. housing prices only fell 25.9 percent.

#19 State and local government debt reached at an all-time record of 22 percent of U.S. GDP during 2010.

#20 The U.S. national debt has surpassed the 14 trillion dollar mark for the first time ever and it is being projected that it will soar well past 15 trillion during 2011.

There are some people that have a hard time really grasping what statistics actually mean. For people like that, often pictures and charts are much more effective. Well, that is one reason I like to include pictures and graphs in many of my articles, and below I have posted my favorite chart from this past year. It shows the growth of the U.S. national debt from 1940 until today. I honestly don’t know how anyone can look at this chart and still be convinced that our nation is not headed for a complete financial meltdown….[chart]

14 Eye Opening Statistics Which Reveal Just How Dramatically The U.S. Economy Has Collapsed Since 2007 Most Americans have become so accustomed to the “new normal” of continual economic decline that they don’t even remember how good things were just a few short years ago. ‘The Economic Collapse Jan 10, 2011

’Most Americans have become so accustomed to the “new normal” of continual economic decline that they don’t even remember how good things were just a few short years ago. Back in 2007, unemployment was very low, good jobs were much easier to get, far fewer Americans were living in poverty or enrolled in welfare programs and government finances were in much better shape. Of course most of this prosperity was fueled by massive amounts of debt, but at least times were better. Unfortunately, things have really deteriorated over the last several years. Since 2007, unemployment has skyrocketed, foreclosures have set new all-time records, personal bankruptcies have soared and U.S. government debt has gotten completely and totally out of control. Poll after poll has shown that Americans are now far less optimistic about the future than they were in 2007. It is almost as if the past few years have literally sucked the hope out of millions upon millions of Americans.

Sadly, our economic situation is continually getting worse. Every month the United States loses more factories. Every month the United States loses more jobs. Every month the collective wealth of U.S. citizens continues to decline. Every month the federal government goes into even more debt. Every month state and local governments go into even more debt.

Unfortunately, things are going to get even worse in the years ahead. Right now we look back on 2005, 2006 and 2007 as “good times”, but in a few years we will look back on 2010 and 2011 as “good times”.

We are in the midst of a long-term economic decline, and the very bad economic choices that we have been making as a nation for decades are now starting to really catch up with us.

So as horrible as you may think that things are now, just keep in mind that things are going to continue to deteriorate in the years ahead.

But for the moment, let us remember how far we have fallen over the past few years. The following are 14 eye opening statistics which reveal just how dramatically the U.S. economy has collapsed since 2007….

#1 In November 2007, the official U.S. unemployment rate was just 4.7 percent. Today, the official U.S. unemployment rate is 9.4 percent.

#2 In November 2007, 18.8% of unemployed Americans had been out of work for 27 weeks or longer. Today that percentage is up to 41.9%.

#3 As 2007 began, there were just over 1 million Americans that had been unemployed for half a year or longer. Today, there are over 6 million Americans that have been unemployed for half a year or longer.

#4 Nearly 10 million Americans now receive unemployment insurance, whichis almost four times as many as were receiving it back in 2007.

#5 More than half of the U.S. labor force (55 percent) has “suffered a spell of unemployment, a cut in pay, a reduction in hours or have become involuntary part-time workers” since the “recession” began in December 2007.

#6 According to one analysis, the United States has lost a total of approximately 10.5 million jobs since 2007.

#7 As 2007 began, only 26 million Americans were on food stamps. Today, an all-time record of 43.2 million Americans are enrolled in the food stamp program.

#8 In 2007, the U.S. government held a total of $725 billion in mortgage debt. As of the middle of 2010, the U.S. government held a total of $5.148 trillion in mortgage debt.

#9 In the year prior to the “official” beginning of the most recent recession in 2007, the IRS filed just 684,000 tax liens against U.S. taxpayers. During 2010, the IRS filed over a million tax liens against U.S. taxpayers.

#10 From the year 2000 through the year 2007, there were 27 bank failures in the United States. From 2008 through 2010, there were 314 bank failures in the United States.

#11 According to the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, the number of U.S. families with children living in homeless sheltersincreased from 131,000 to 170,000 between 2007 and 2009.

#12 In 2007, one poll found that 43 percent of Americans were living “paycheck to paycheck”. Sadly, according to a survey released very close to the end of 2010, approximately 55 percent of all Americans are now living paycheck to paycheck.

#13 In 2007, the “official” federal budget deficit was just 161 billion dollars. In 2010, the “official” federal budget deficit was approximately 1.3 trillion dollars.

#14 As 2007 began, the U.S. national debt was just under 8.7 trillion dollars. Today, the U.S. national debt has just surpassed 14 trillion dollars and it continues to soar into the stratosphere.

So is there any hope that we can turn all of this around?

Unfortunately, the massive amount of debt that we have piled up as a society over the last several decades has made that impossible.

If you add up all forms of debt (government debt, business debt, individual debt), it comes to approximately 360 percent of GDP. It is the biggest debt bubble in the history of the world.

If the federal government and our state governments stop borrowing and spending so much money, our economy would collapse. But if they keep borrowing and spending so much money they will continually make the eventual economic collapse even worse.

We are in the terminal stages of the most horrific debt spiral the world has ever seen, and when the debt spiral gets stopped the house of cards is going to finally come down for good.

So enjoy these times while you still have them. Yes, today is not nearly as prosperous as 2007 was, but today is most definitely a whole lot better than 2015 or 2020 is going to be.

Sadly, we could have avoided this financial disaster completely if only we had listened more carefully to those that founded this nation. Once upon a time, Thomas Jefferson said the following….

I wish it were possible to obtain a single amendment to our Constitution. I would be willing to depend on that alone for the reduction of the administration of our government to the genuine principles of its Constitution; I mean an additional article, taking from the federal government the power of borrowing.’

Tipping Point: 25 Signs That The Coming Financial Collapse Is Now Closer Then Ever The financial collapse that so many of us have been anticipating is seemingly closer then ever. Over the past several weeks, there have been a host of ominous signs for the U.S. economy.

The Economic Collapse
Dec 17, 2010

The financial collapse that so many of us have been anticipating is seemingly closer then ever. Over the past several weeks, there have been a host of ominous signs for the U.S. economy. Yields on U.S. Treasuries have moved up rapidly and Moody’s is publicly warning that it may have to cut the rating on U.S. government debt soon. Mortgage rates are also moving up aggressively. The euro and the U.S. dollar both look incredibly shaky. Jobs continue to be shipped out of the United States at a blistering pace as our politicians stand by and do nothing. Confidence in U.S. government debt around the globe continues to decline. State and local governments that are drowning in debt across the United States are savagely cutting back on even essential social services and are coming up with increasingly “creative” ways of getting more money out of all of us. Meanwhile, tremor after tremor continues to strike the world financial system. So does this mean that we have almost reached a tipping point? Is the world on the verge of a major financial collapse?

Let’s hope not, but with each passing week the financial news just seems to get eve worse. Not only is U.S. government debt spinning wildly toward a breaking point, but many U.S. states (such as California) are in such horrific financial condition that they are beginning to resemble banana republics.

But it is not just the United States that is in trouble. Nightmarish debt problems in Greece, Spain, Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Belgium and several other European nations threaten to crash the euro at any time. In fact, many economists are now openly debating which will collapse first – the euro or the U.S. dollar.

Sadly, this is the inevitable result of constructing a global financial system on debt. All debt bubbles eventually collapse. Currently we are living in the biggest debt bubble in the history of the world, and when this one bursts it is going to be a disaster of truly historic proportions.

So will we reach a tipping point soon? Well, the following are 25 signs that the financial collapse is rapidly getting closer….

#1 The official U.S. unemployment rate has not been beneath 9 percent since April 2009.

#2 According to the U.S. Census Bureau, there are currently 6.3 million vacant homes in the United States that are either for sale or for rent.

#3 It is being projected that the U.S. trade deficit with China could hit 270 billion dollars for the entire year of 2010.

#4 Back in 2000, 7.2 percent of blue collar workers were either unemployed or underemployed. Today that figure is up to 19.5 percent.

#5 The Chinese government has accumulated approximately $2.65 trillion in total foreign exchange reserves. They have drained this wealth from the economies of other nations (such as the United States) and instead of reinvesting all of it they are just sitting on much of it. This is creating tremendous imbalances in the global economy.

#6 Since the year 2000, we have lost 10% of our middle class jobs. In the year 2000 there were approximately 72 million middle class jobs in the United States but today there are only about 65 million middle class jobs.

#7 The United States now employs about the same number of people in manufacturing as it did back in 1940. Considering the fact that we had 132 million people living in this country in 1940 and that we have well over 300 million people living in this country today, that is a very sobering statistic.

#8 According to CoreLogic, U.S. housing prices have now declined for three months in a row.

#9 The average rate on a 30 year fixed rate mortgage soared 11 basis points just this past week. As mortgage rates continue to push higher it is going to make it even more difficult for American families to afford homes.

#10 22.5 percent of all residential mortgages in the United States were in negative equity as of the end of the third quarter of 2010.

#11 The U.S. monetary base has more than doubled since the beginning of the most recent recession.

#12 U.S. Treasury yields have been rising steadily during the 4th quarter of 2010 and recently hit a six-month high.

#13 Incoming governor Jerry Brown is scrambling to find $29 billion more to cut from the California state budget. The following quote from Brown about the desperate condition of California state finances is not going to do much to inspire confidence in California’s financial situation around the globe….

“We’ve been living in fantasy land. It is much worse than I thought. I’m shocked.”

#14 24.3 percent of the residents of El Centro, California are currently unemployed.

#15 The average home in Merced, California has declined in value by 63 percent over the past four years.

#16 Detroit Mayor Dave Bing has come up with a new way to save money. He wants to cut 20 percent of Detroit off from essential social services such as road repairs, police patrols, functioning street lights and garbage collection.

#17 The second most dangerous city in the United States – Camden, New Jersey – is about to lay off about half its police in a desperate attempt to save money.

#18 In 2010, 55 percent of Americans between the ages of 60 and 64 were in the labor market. Ten years ago, that number was just 47 percent. More older Americans than ever find that they have to keep working just to survive.

#19 Back in 1998, the United States had 25 percent of the world’s high-tech export market and China had just 10 percent. Ten years later, the United States had less than 15 percent and China’s share had soared to 20 percent.

#20 The U.S. government budget deficit increased to a whopping $150.4 billion last month, which represented the biggest November budget deficit on record.

#21 The U.S. government is somehow going to have to roll over existing debt and finance new debt that is equivalent to 27.8 percent of GDP in 2011.

#22 The United States had been the leading consumer of energy on the globe for about 100 years, but this past summer China took over the number one spot.

#23 According to an absolutely stunning new poll, 40 percent of all U.S. doctors plan to bail out of the profession over the next three years.

#24 As 2007 began, there were just over 1 million Americans that had been unemployed for half a year or longer. Today, there are over 6 million Americans that have been unemployed for half a year or longer.

#25 All over the United States, local governments have begun instituting “police response fees”. For example, New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg has come up with a plan under which a fee of $365 would be charged if police are called to respond to an automobile accident where no injuries are involved. If there are injuries as a result of the crash that is going to cost extra.

16 Nightmarish Economic Trends To Watch Carefully In 2011 The American Dream Dec 15, 2010 ‘If you only watch the “economic pundits” on television, it can be very confusing to figure out exactly what is happening with the U.S. economy. One pundit will pull out a couple statistics that got a little bit better over the past month and claim that we have entered a time of solid recovery. Another pundit will pull out a couple statistics that got a little worse over the past month and claim that we are headed for trouble. So what is the truth? Well, if you really want to get a clear idea of what is really going on you have to look at the long-term trends. There are some economic trends which just keep getting worse year after year after year, and it is those trends that tell the real story of the decline of our economic system.

As you examine the long-term trends, you quickly come to realize that the U.S. is trapped in an endless spiral of debt, the middle class is being wiped out, the U.S. dollar is being destroyed and America is rapidly becoming a post-industrial wasteland.

Posted below are 16 nightmarish economic trends to watch carefully in 2011. It is becoming exceedingly apparent that unless something is done rapidly we are heading for an economic collapse of unprecedented magnitude….

#1 Do you want to see something scary? Just check out the chart below. Since the beginning of the economic downturn, the U.S. monetary base has more than doubled. But don’t worry – Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has promised us that this could never cause inflation. In fact, Bernanke says that we need to inject even more dollars into the economy. So if you are alarmed by the chart below, you are just being irrational according to Bernanke….

[chart]

#2 Thousands of our factories, millions of our jobs and hundreds of billions of dollars of our national wealth continue to be shipped overseas. In 1985, the U.S. trade deficit with China was 6 million dollars for the entire year. In the month of August alone, the U.S. trade deficit with China was over 28 billion dollars. Nobel economist Robert W. Fogel of the University of Chicago is projecting that the Chinese economy will be three times larger than the U.S. economy by the year 2040 if current trends continue.

#3 The United States is rapidly becoming a post-industrial wasteland. Back in 1959, manufacturing represented 28 percent of all U.S. economic output. In 2008, it represented only 11.5 percent and it continues to fall. Sadly, the truth is that America is being deindustrialized. As of the end of 2009, less than 12 million Americans worked in manufacturing. The last time that less than 12 million Americans were employed in manufacturing was in 1941.

#4 The number of Americans that have been out of work for an extended period of time has absolutely exploded over the last few years. As 2007 began, there were just over 1 million Americans that had been unemployed for half a year or longer. Today, there are over 6 million Americans that have been unemployed for half a year or longer.

#5 The middle class continues to be squeezed out of existence. According to a poll taken in 2009, 61 percent of Americans ”always or usually” live paycheck to paycheck. That was up substantially from 49 percent in 2008 and 43 percent in 2007.

#6 The number of Americans living in poverty is absolutely skyrocketing. 42.9 million Americans are now on food stamps, and one out of every six Americans is now enrolled in at least one anti-poverty program run by the federal government. Unfortunately, many of those that have been hardest hit by this economic downturn have been children. According to one new study, approximately 21 percent of all children in the United States are living below the poverty line in 2010 - the highest rate in 20 years.

#7 Many American families have been pushed beyond the breaking point during this economic downturn. Over 1.4 million Americans filed for personal bankruptcy in 2009, which represented a 32 percent increase over 2008. The final number for 2010 is expected to be even higher.

#8 The U.S. real estate market continues to stagnate. During the third quarter of 2010, 67 percent of mortgages in Nevada were “underwater”, 49 percent of mortgages in Arizona were “underwater” and 46 percent of mortgages in Florida were “underwater”. So what happens if home prices go down even more?

#9 More elderly Americans than ever are being forced to put off retirement and continue working. In 2010, 55 percent of Americans between the ages of 60 and 64 were in the labor market. Ten years ago, that number was just 47 percent. Unfortunately, it looks like this problem will only get worse in the years ahead. In America today, approximately half of all workers have less than $2000 saved up for retirement.

#10 In the United States today, there are simply far too many retirees and not nearly enough workers to support them. Back in 1950 each retiree’s Social Security benefit was paid for by 16 workers. Today, each retiree’s Social Security benefit is paid for by approximately 3.3 workers. By 2025 it is projected that there will be approximately two workers for each retiree.

#11 Financial assets continue to become concentrated in fewer and fewer hands. For example, the “big four” U.S. banks (Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and Wells Fargo) had approximately 22 percent of all deposits in FDIC-insured institutions back in 2000. As of the middle of 2009 that figure was up to 39 percent.

#12 The Federal Reserve has been destroying the value of the U.S. dollar for decades. Since the Federal Reserve was created in 1913, the U.S. dollar has lost over 95 percent of its purchasing power. An item that cost $20.00 in 1970 would cost you $112.35 today. An item that cost $20.00 in 1913 would cost you $440.33 today.

#13 Commodity prices continue to soar into the stratosphere. Ten years ago, the price of a barrel of oil hovered around 20 to 30 dollars most of the time. Today, the price of oil is rapidly closing in on 100 dollars a barrel and there are now fears that it could soon go much higher than that.

#14 Federal government spending is completely and totally out of control. The U.S. government budget deficit increased to a whopping $150.4 billion last month, which represented the biggest November deficit on record. But our politicians can’t seem to break their addiction to debt. In fact, Democrats are trying to ram through a 1,924 page, 1.1 trillion dollar spending bill in the final days of the lame-duck session of Congress before the Republicans take control of the House of Representatives next year.

#15 The U.S. national debt is rapidly closing in on 14 trillion dollars. It is more than 13 times larger than it was just 30 short years ago. According to an official U.S. Treasury Department report to Congress, the U.S. national debt is projected to climb to an estimated $19.6 trillion by 2015.

#16 Unfortunately, the official government numbers grossly understate the horrific nature of the crisis we are facing. John Williams of Shadow Government Statistics has calculated that if the federal government would have used GAAP accounting standards to measure the federal budget deficit for 2009, it would have been approximately 8.8 trillion dollars. Not only that, but John Williams now says that U.S. government debt is so wildly out of control that it is mathematically impossible for us to “grow” our way out of it….

The government’s finances not only are out of control, but the actual deficit is not containable. Put into perspective, if the government were to raise taxes so as to seize 100% of all wages, salaries and corporate profits, it still would be showing an annual deficit using GAAP accounting on a consistent basis. In like manner, given current revenues, if it stopped spending every penny (including defense and homeland security) other than for Social Security and Medicare obligations, the government still would be showing an annual deficit. Further, the U.S. has no potential way to grow out of this shortfall.

The more one examines the U.S. economic situation, the more depressing it becomes. The U.S. financial system is trapped inside a horrific debt spiral and we are headed straight for economic oblivion.

If our leaders attempt to interrupt the debt spiral it will plunge our economy into a depression. If our leaders attempt to keep the debt spiral going for several more years it will just make the eventual crash even worse. Either way, we are headed for a financial implosion that will be truly historic.

The debt-fueled good times that we have been enjoying for the last several decades are rapidly coming to an end. Unfortunately for the tens of millions of Americans that are already suffering, our economic problems are only going to get worse in the years ahead.’

Jobless Recovery?: 25 Unemployment Statistics That Are Almost Too Depressing To Read ‘… Unemployment is up again! That’s right – even though Wall Street is swimming in cash and the Obama administration is declaring that “the recession is over”, the U.S. unemployment rate has gone even higher. So are you enjoying the jobless recovery? Economic Collapse Blog Dec 4, 2010 ‘Guess what? Unemployment is up again! That’s right – even though Wall Street is swimming in cash and the Obama administration is declaring that “the recession is over”, the U.S. unemployment rate has gone even higher ... Times are really, really tough and unfortunately the long-term outlook is very bleak. We should have compassion on those who are out of work right now, because soon many of us may join them.

The following are 25 unemployment statistics that are almost too depressing to read….

#1 According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the U.S. unemployment rate for November was 9.8 percent. This was up from 9.6 percent in October, and it continues a trend of depressingly high unemployment rates. The official unemployment number has been at 9.5 percent or higher for well over a year at this point.

#2 In November 2006, the “official” U.S. unemployment rate was just 4.5 percent.

#3 Most economists had been expecting the U.S. economy to add about 150,000 jobs in November. Instead, it only added 39,000.

#4 In the United States today, there are over 15 million people who are “officially” considered to be unemployed for statistical purposes. But everyone knows that the “real” number is even much larger than that.

#5 As 2007 began, there were just over 1 million Americans that had been unemployed for half a year or longer. Today, there are over 6 million Americans that have been unemployed for half a year or longer.

#6 The number of “persons not in the labor force” in the United States recently set another new all-time record.

#7 It now takes the average unemployed American over 33 weeks to find a job.

#8 When you throw in “discouraged workers” and “underemployed workers”, the “real” unemployment rate in the state of California is actually about 22 percent.

#9 In America today there are not nearly enough jobs for everyone. In fact, there are now approximately 5 unemployed Americans for every single job opening.

#10 According to The New York Times, Americans that have been unemployed for five weeks or less are three times more likely to find a new job in the coming month than Americans that have been unemployed for over a year.

#11 The U.S. economy would need to create 235,120 new jobs a month to get the unemployment rate down to pre-recession levels by 2016. Does anyone think that there is even a prayer that is going to happen?

#12 There are 9 million Americans that are working part-time for “economic reasons”. In other words, those Americans would gladly take full-time jobs if they could get them, but all they have been able to find is part-time work.

#13 In 2009, total wages, median wages, and average wages all declined in the United States.

#14 As of the end of 2009, less than 12 million Americans worked in manufacturing. The last time that less than 12 million Americans were employed in manufacturing was in 1941.

#15 The United States has lost at least 7.5 million jobs since the recession began.

#16 Today, only about 40 percent of Ford Motor Company’s 178,000 workers are employed in North America, and a big percentage of those jobs are in Canada and Mexico.

#17 In 1959, manufacturing represented 28 percent of U.S. economic output. In 2008, it represented 11.5 percent.

#18 Earlier this year, one poll found that 28% of all American households had at least one member that was looking for a full-time job.

#19 In the United States today, over 18,000 parking lot attendants have college degrees.

#20 The United States has lost a staggering 32 percent of its manufacturing jobs since the year 2000.

#21 As the employment situation continues to stagnate, millions of American families have decided to cut back on things such as insurance coverage. For example, the percentage of American households that have life insurance coverage is at its lowest level in 50 years.

#22 Unless Congress acts, and there is no indication that is going to happen, approximately 2 million Americans will stop receiving unemployment checks over the next couple of months.

#23 A poll that was released by the Pew Research Center back in June discovered that an astounding 55 percent of the U.S. labor force has experienced either unemployment, a pay decrease, a reduction in hours or an involuntary move to part-time work since the economic downturn began.

#24 According to Richard McCormack, the United States has lost over 42,000 factories (and counting) since 2001.

#25 In the United States today, 317,000 waiters and waitresses have college degrees.

But this is what we get for creating the biggest debt bubble in the history of the world. For decades we have been digging a deeper hole for ourselves by going into increasingly larger amounts of debt. In America today, our entire economy is based on debt. Even our money is debt. We were fools if we ever thought this could go on forever. Just think about it. Have you ever gone out and run up a bunch of debt? It can be a lot of fun sitting behind the wheel of a new car, running your credit cards up to the limit and buying a beautiful big house that you cannot afford. But in the end what happens? It always catches up with you. Well, our collective debt is starting to catch up with us. There is a sea of red ink on every level of American society. It is only a matter of time before it destroys our economy. IF YOU THINK THAT THINGS ARE BAD NOW, JUST WAIT. THINGS ARE GOING TO GET A WHOLE LOT WORSE. A HORRIFIC ECONOMIC COLLAPSE IS COMING, AND IT IS GOING TO BE VERY, VERY PAINFUL.’

Howard Davidowitz on the Economy: "Here Are the Numbers ... WE'RE BROKE!" 11-25-10 ‘The U.S. economy "is a complete disaster," Howard Davidowitz declared here in July, the most recent in a string of dire predictions from Tech Ticker's most entertaining guest.On the eve of Thanksgiving, I asked Davidowitz if he had any regrets, or was ready to throw in the towel given recent signs of economic revival. Are you kidding me? "Here are the numbers...we're broke," Davidowitz declares, noting the U.S. government goes $5 billion deeper into debt every day and is facing $1 trillion-plus annual deficits for the next decade. "In other words, we're bankrupt."As with the economy, Davidowitz is unwaveringly consistent in his views on President Obama, calling him "deranged, dysfunctional and discredited."Results of the midterm election show "the people of this country think we are in a catastrophe," he says. "I'm with them."Check the accompanying video for more of Howard's unfettered opinions and stay tuned for additional clips from this interview. And...Happy Thanksgiving! Aaron Task is the host of Tech Ticker. You can follow him on Twitter at @atask or email him at altask@yahoo.com’

Timid Tuesday: Is it Safe? Davis ‘… This is how we pay off our current debts and I think bondholders are simply happy to get anything out of a country that admits it owes $15Tn (1/4 of global GDP) but probably owes closer to $60Tn (entire global GDP) in the form of unfunded liabilities. The funniest thing about this (and you have to laugh) is to see Conservative pundits get on TV and talk about how we need to cut $100Bn worth of discretionary spending to "fix" this (while continuing to spend $1Tn on the military and $1Tn on tax cuts for the top 1% each year). There is no fixing this and even a Republican said you can’t fool all of the people all of the time. THIS HOUSE OF CARDS IS TEETERING FOLKS – PLEASE BE CAREFUL OUT THERE! ‘

17 Things Worrying Investors Lloyd's Wall of Worry

Worry Count: 17

CHINA: 1,330,044,605 people can’t be wrong.

The PIIGS: Fasten your seatbelts. It’s gonna be a long, bumpy, expensive, weird, (insert your own adjective here) freak show of a ride.

CALIFORNIA AND THE OTHER 49 STATES: Not yet as dire as “The PIIGS”. Might I suggest the classier moniker of “The Prosciuttos” for the American basket-case states?

QE II: Gobble?

U.S. ECONOMY: The “Punky Brewster” of the global economic landscape.

UNEMPLOYMENT: Only thing worse than losing your job, losing your unemployment check. At least there’s the holiday season to cheer everyone up (read: heavy sarcasm).

TAXES: Praying to the Financial Market Gods that we don’t have another TARP-like vote fiasco.

OBAMA ADMINISTRATION PART II: Still two years before the Pres. election and the peanut gallery is already pleading for a Hail Mary Pass to get them back in the game.

HFT: Instead of beating up these liquidity supplying traders, let’s honor them with their very own stock exchange. But wait -- with no retail saps to pick-off they will never get that Day 1 opening bell tick. Perfect.

XMAS 2010: As my professor friend Nick says, “Nowadays Americans are dining off of two menus – The Million Dollar and the $0.99 Cent.” And both are pissed about it.

CURRENCIES: Poor Mr. Greenback. Does someone need a hug?

HOUSING CRISIS: Price Stabilization – Are we there yet? Just a little bit more. Are we there yet? Just a little bit more. Are we there yet? Just a little bit more….

INFLATION/DEFLATION: Fed Chief Ben B. comes out swinging from his heels in defense of inflation promotion. Don’t punch yourself out as this one is likely to go the distance.

COMMODITIES: Corrected but still sky high; fortunately these prices are only affecting core, basic, life-sustaining necessities and sparing our electronic gadgets and plus-sized SUVs. Whew!

INSIDER TRADING: Another black eye for Hedge Funds. I estimate that makes black eye number 6,597.

INTEREST RATES: South Korea and China slowly turning up the dial to “11”. On the other hand the U.S. has removed the dial altogether. This never ends well….

NORTH KOREA: Here we go again. (and now Egypt, etc.)

Consumer confidence down, LiveLeak.com - Loonie closes above U.S. dollar … dollar for first time closes below parity on Canadian loonie … hey, hey, hey … 'Huge' stock decline — but not yet MarketWatch - Brimelow ‘Commentary: Adens … ‘mega trend’ looks grim … The Adens expect a hyperinflationary collapse … ‘ Oh come on! Manipulated dollar decline with inflated earnings, stock prices thereby, etc., … we’ve seen this all before … the last few crashes … Jobless rate jumps to 9.8% as hiring slows (Washington Post) [ The reality is not a mystery! The nation’s been thrown under the bus for the greater good (wealth) of the very few (frauds on wall street, etc.); wall street giving out record bonuses from their accomplished fraud (with no-recession b.s. bernanke help) of $144 BILLION: Come on! This is gettin’ even more downright ridiculous (if that’s even possible)! Pending home foreclosure / distress sales up, oil prices (and oil stocks) up, debased dollar down, plus a little familiar ‘better than expected’ thrown in along with prospects of a ‘no-recession bernanke’ market-frothing bull session on 60 minutes and, voila, suckers’ rally into the close to keep the suckers suckered! What’s good for the frauds on wall street is bad for just about everyone else which includes the vast majority of people and businesses, domestically and globally, as current dollar manipulation / debasement ultimately results in higher costs and loss of purchasing power (ie., oil, etc.). Clearly, this is one of those fraudulent wealth transfers to the frauds on wall street et als which will ultimately be paid for by those who least are in a position to afford it, courtesy of the ever more worthless Weimar dollar, etc., inflating earnings, eps, lowering p/e multiples, etc., see infra. This is an especially great time to sell / take profits while you can since there's much worse to come! Previous: Rosy numbers on consumer sentiment, unemployment (far better than private forecasts) from the government prior to the holiday so-called ‘shop till you drop’? How can anyone believe anything they say? Najerian interviewed by Motek chimes in with the reason for good retail cheer; viz., people have stopped paying their mortgages and are using the funds to purchase retail goods; while Davidowitz adds that with record numbers of americans on food stamps, real unemployment at 17+, and wall street giving out record bonuses from their accomplished fraud (with no-recession b.s. bernanke help) of $144 BILLION … the high end stores / jewelers will do well … daaaaah! And, with insiders and wall street frauds selling into the bubble as preceded last crash, this is an especially great opportunity to sell / take profits! Suckers’ rally on light volume, full moon, and government complicity (false data / reports) to keep suckers suckered (easy for the wall street frauds to do with just a mouse click / push of the button – and, they know all those technical trade lines that are easy to program in this current phase of the scam/fraud with the debased dollar). Keep in mind, the totally mindless blather from the ‘cottage industries’ of and fraudulent wall street itself in talking up lower P/E multiples when the same is a direct result of the debasement of the dollar and the consequent manipulation / translation (not real, see Davis, infra) which preceded the financial crisis / last crash. Unemployment, trade, deficit, etc., numbers continue decidedly worse than expected along with other negative data (and in the ‘wrong direction’, that spin accorded ‘down but not as bad as before’ b*** s*** ) yet the market has rallied like no tomorrow with used home foreclosure / distressed sales, though abated owing to ‘foreclosuregate’, the other ‘heralded’ good news. Moreover, the dumbo lemmings of Europe have jumped on the fraudulent defacto bankrupt american crazy train propelled to the precipice also as if no tomorrow. This is about keeping the suckers sucked in with the help of a market-frothing pre-election debased dollar for favorable currency translation and paper (but not real when measured in, ie., gold, etc.) profits which preceded the last crisis, inflating a bubble as in the last crisis to facilitate the churn-and-earn, particularly with computerized (and high frequency) trades and which commissions they’ll get again on the way down. There is nothing to support these overbought stock prices, fundamentally or otherwise. These are desperate criminals ‘at work’. Even wall street shill, the senile Buffett is saying we’re still in a recession (depression) [ Davis: ‘… all profits are inflated by 10% (from falling, debased dollar) and that 10% is the E that gets divided from the P and gives us a much better price/multiple to hang our hats on and that gets investors to BUYBUYBUY …’ The bull market that never was / were beyond wall street b.s. when measured in gold ] This is a great opportunity to sell / take profits (these lower dollar, hyperinflationary currency manipulations / translations to froth paper stocks will end quite badly as in last crash)! This is a global depression. This is a secular bear market in a global depression. The past up moves were manipulated bull (s***) cycles (at best) in a secular bear market. This has been a typically manipulated bubble as has preceded the prior crashes with great regularity that the wall street frauds and insiders commission and sell into. This is a typical wall street ‘programmed computerized high-frequency churn and earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud as in prior crashes ( widely reported, high-frequency trading routinely accounts for more than 50% of daily U.S. equity trading volume and regularly approaches 70%. )’. This national decline, economic and otherwise, will not end until justice is served and the wall street frauds et als are criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed.The Stock Market's Long Decline Has Begun Smith ]

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http://www.albertpeia.com/alresume.htm

http://www.albertpeia.com/wallstreetlunacy2ndqtr10108.htm

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Wednesday, March 2, 2011

March 1, 2011 posts

Business / Economic / Financial

But still it’s ‘hands off fraudulent wall street’ to theirs, the nation’s, and the world’s detriment. Firms subpoenaed in attempt to regain Fannie, Freddie losses (Washington Post). But there’s a reason:

‘THE OBAMA DECEPTION’ http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eAaQNACwaLw&feature=PlayList&p=2EFAB57B44063742&playnext_from=PL&index=0&playnext=1 – well worth a look. [ The Obama Deception Number 1 on U.S. Google Trends ]

] House Republicans ramp up pressure on SEC Chairman Mary Schapiro.

Bernanke warns on oil price ‘threat’ Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke on Tuesday warned a “sustained” rise in oil prices could threaten US growth and spark dangerous price rises, as he eyed turmoil in Libya.

CNBC On The Case For $130 Silver Nothing new for regulars here. Yet the fact that CNBC, following Cramer’s endorsement of gold, is now apparently pushing silver on retail is very troubling.

China’s holdings of US debt larger than reported China’s holdings of US bonds reached $1.16 trillion at the end of December, almost $270 billion more than previously estimated, new data showed Monday.

Greenback Armageddon Ahead? Why the dollar is about to crash, with Damon Vickers, Nine Points Capital Management founder, and “The Day After Dollar Crash” author.

Government Promises to Cut Social Security It’s official, national austerity measures are here.

Politicians Slash Budget of Watchdog Agencies … Guaranteeing that Financial Fraud Won’t Be Investigated or Prosecuted As I noted last year, you can tell how interested Congress and the White House are in uncovering the truth by looking at how much money is actually budgeted for investigation.

Gold Hits New High as Tension Mounts in Middle East Kurt Nimmo | Once again, gold serves as a solid refuge for jittery investors.

Aussies Ready to Roll Out Deep Penetrating Radiation Scanners at Airports Steve Watson | Trials begin for devices that can scan your insides, deep penetrating radiation scans cause 15,000 deaths per year.

Documentary exposes fluoride truth: Industrial waste passed off as medicine Mike Adams | Water fluoridation around the world is achieved through the purchase of chemically contaminated toxic waste chemicals from China.

TSA Lies To Justify Illegal Train Station Grope-Down Paul Joseph Watson | Passengers were forced to enter train station by TSA goons who swarmed them on platform.

But still it’s ‘hands off fraudulent wall street’ to theirs, the nation’s, and the world’s detriment. Firms subpoenaed in attempt to regain Fannie, Freddie losses (Washington Post). But there’s a reason:

‘THE OBAMA DECEPTION’ http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eAaQNACwaLw&feature=PlayList&p=2EFAB57B44063742&playnext_from=PL&index=0&playnext=1 – well worth a look. [ The Obama Deception Number 1 on U.S. Google Trends ]

Dow ends at 2 1/2-year high

Eternal love story: Your brain’s in love with Wall Street’s brain

Your brain needs to believe lies; Wall Street loves telling lies

Our brains never learned 2008’s lessons, will fail again in 2011

Warning: Cyclical bull ends in 2011, new cyclical bear roars back

S&P 500 inflated, worth just 910, get out before it tops 1,500

Greenback Armageddon Ahead? Why the dollar is about to crash, with Damon Vickers, Nine Points Capital Management founder, and “The Day After Dollar Crash” author.

Government Promises to Cut Social Security It’s official, national austerity measures are here.

Politicians Slash Budget of Watchdog Agencies … Guaranteeing that Financial Fraud Won’t Be Investigated or Prosecuted As I noted last year, you can tell how interested Congress and the White House are in uncovering the truth by looking at how much money is actually budgeted for investigation.

The Flood Of Money Drowns Out The Value The world is awash in dollars and that is being reflected in the USDX, which are six major currencies versus the dollar. The loss of value is being loudly trumpeted as the IMF says a replacement must be found.

Mob Robbers And Rampant Looting: Is This The Future Of America? Have you ever heard of mob robberies? What happens is that dozens of young people storm a store at the same time, take whatever they want, and then storm out as powerless store clerks watch helplessly.

Madoff Says Entire U.S. Government a `Ponzi Scheme’ Bernard Madoff, convicted for organizing a ponzi scheme, criticized the U.S. during a recent telephone interview with New York Magazine.

‘No Plans’ To Cut Speeds As Oil Price Soars Transport officials have denied they are considering cutting speed limits on the roads to conserve fuel, despite the world oil crisis.

“Technical Glitch” Takes Down Australian Stock Exchange After last week we saw the Euronext, the Italian and the London Stock Exchanges crashing and burning, it is now Australia’s turn.

Will The Death Of The Dollar Lead To The Birth Of A New World Economic Order? There is no getting around it. The U.S. dollar is dying. U.S. government debt continues to grow at a very frightening pace and the Federal Reserve is now buying up most of the new debt that is being issued.

War, Martial Law, and the Economic Crisis Peter Dale Scott | A quiet agglomeration of military power shows sustained intention.

Government Promises to Cut Social Security Infowars.com | It’s official, national austerity measures are here.

“Day of Rage” in Iraq: 23 Killed by Government Infowars.com | Obama too busy condemning Gaddafi to take al-Maliki to task in Iraq.

Obama Signs Patriot Act Extension New York Post | Allows law enforcement to set roving wiretaps to monitor multiple communication devices.

Ignacio Pena: “Songs for the Fall of an Empire” Infowars.com | Another example of the sort of excellent work submitted to the latest video contest.

A Government Shut-down Imperils the Power of Congress Paul Craig Roberts | Congress could try to protect its loss of the power of the purse by impeaching Obama.

Libyans: No Thanks to Globalist Intervention Kurt Nimmo | Rebel leader stated his country does not want or need help from the United States and its globalist partners.

Obama’s “Humanitarian” Conquest Of Libya Paul Joseph Watson | While his predator drone attacks kill 90% innocents, President suddenly develops a conscience for human suffering

Globalism Pushing Middle Class Standard of Living Down to Third World Levels The Economic Collapse | The truth is that the global economy is bad for America.

War Uber Alles The United States government cannot get enough of war. With Libyan dictator Moammar Gadhafi’s regime falling to a rebelling population, CNN reports that a Pentagon spokesman said that the U.S. is looking at all options from the military side.

Mob Robbers And Rampant Looting: Is This The Future Of America? Have you ever heard of mob robberies? What happens is that dozens of young people storm a store at the same time, take whatever they want, and then storm out as powerless store clerks watch helplessly.

Infowars.com Takes 1st Place in Alternative News Rating The DBKP Report has listed Infowars.com as the top alternative news and information website in its February, 2011, 80 Alternative News-Information ratings report. DBKP bases its ratings on 3-month average of Alexa worldwide traffic rankings.

Analysis of the Global Insurrection Against Neo-Liberal Economic Domination and the Coming American Rebellion If you think what’s happening in Egypt won’t happen within the United States, you’ve been watching too much TV. The statistics speak for themselves.

UK paying ‘bribes’ to free trapped Britons Britain has been buying off Libyan officials with hefty additional fees in order to expedite the troubled evacuation of UK nationals, according to senior government figures.

Neocon Analysts Push for Invasion of Libya CNN reports the Pentagon and NATO are ready to send troops into Libya under the cover of humanitarian assistance. CNN underscores the situation by stating that reports say Gaddafi will fight to the end and will seek martyrdom.

Homeland Security To Scan DNA The Homeland Security Department this summer plans to begin testing a DNA analyzer that’s small enough to be easily portable and fast enough to return results in less than an hour.

The Real Revolution As Washington plunges the Middle East and North Africa into chaos, and city by city collapses into the hands of globalist stooges, many have mistakenly interpreted this “change” as a positive transformation.

Obama says Kadhafi must ‘leave now’: White House President Barack Obama said Saturday that Libya’s leader Moamer Kadhafi needs to “leave now,” having lost the legitimacy to rule, a White House statement said.

Globalist Client Regime in Iraq Massacres Protesters Kurt Nimmo | Donald Rumsfeld told the Iraqis democracy can be messy. It can also be bloody.

War Über Alles Paul Craig Roberts | War makes money for the politically connected.

The Real Revolution Tony Cartalucci | We have been given a prepackaged ideal of what “revolution” is supposed to look like.

Alex Jones Culture Jams The View Alex Jones blasts the truth to The View’s audience of millions, bringing up the slaughter of a million innocents in Iraq, TSA grope down abuse, as well as the collapse of Building 7.

Ron Paul 2012: Tea Partiers Choose Congressman Over Sarah Palin For Presidential Bid Congressman Ron Paul has topped a Tea Party presidential straw poll, beating Sarah Palin as the favourite to run against Barack Obama in 2012.

Libyans: No Thanks to Globalist Intervention Following Secretary of State Clinton’s call for intervention, a rebel leader in Libya has stated his country does not want or need any help from the United States and its globalist partners.

Saudi activists eye protests, wait for new cabinet Democracy activists in Saudi Arabia say the government is closely monitoring social media to nip in the bud any protests inspired by uprisings that swept Arab countries, toppling leaders in Egypt and Tunisia.

When Pretending Fails to Hide Bankruptcy: Laurence Kotlikoff ( Today in the WashingtonPost.Com ) Laurence Kotlikoff Feb 22, 2011

]

It’s Not an Arab Revolution … It’s a GLOBAL Revolution While the revolution in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and other North African countries may seem like an “Arab revolt”, it’s actually worldwide.

What You Need To Know About Buying Silver At A Time When Even The Canadian Mint Says “It Has Sold Everything It Has” Even as silver performed some unprecedented fireworks today, plunging on what was a margin hike in… crude, the metal continues to trade just below its post-Hunt Brother highs.

Adjusted Monetary Base Goes Vertical Just in case there was any confusion in the interpretation of the M2 chart, here is the latest just released Adjusted Monetary Base.

Tipping Point: 25 Signs That The Coming Financial Collapse Is Now Closer Then Ever The financial collapse that so many of us have been anticipating is seemingly closer then ever. Over the past several weeks, there have been a host of ominous signs for the U.S. economy.

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