Al Peia's Blog: December 7, 2010 posts

Business / Economic / Financial

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State of the Market in Early December 2010 Montgomery ‘The "Helicopter Economics Investing Guide" is meant to help educate people on how to make profitable investing choices in the current economic environment. We have coined this term to describe the current monetary and fiscal policies of the U.S. government, which involve unprecedented money printing. This is the official blog of the New York Investing meetup:There is a lot of controversy currently on whether the markets are bullish or bearish as we enter December. Most investors are on the bullish side, yet there are voices of caution saying the market has gotten too frothy. There is substantial evidence that the market is indeed over done on the upside. Yet, there is a case to be made that it can get even more overpriced.The first thing investors should note is that the U.S. stock market has entered a period of volatility, with the Dow Jones Industrials commonly going up or down more than 100 points in a day. Such wild swings are not healthy for a market. They indicate indecision on the part of traders. The market, like everything else, will eventually break if it is bent too much.Certainly investors are generally very bullish, probably much too bullish at this point. At the end of November, Investors Intelligence had the bulls at over 55% and the bears at around 21%. These are classical points where the market frequently turns. When too many people become bullish, there is eventually no one else to buy and too many bears mean there is no one else to sell. A recent global survey supports this view with large money managers having only 3% of their funds in cash – the lowest level ever recorded. The large funds, who move the markets with their actions, are basically tapped out and have no more money to invest. So where is the money coming from for the rally we saw the first three trading days of December?Quite simply, it’s coming from the Federal Reserve. This doesn’t mean the Fed is buying stocks. It means the Fed is pumping money (newly printed money) into the financial system and this money is finding its way into the markets. For its current quantitative easing program the Fed bought $8.17 billion in treasuries on December 1st, $8.31 billion on December 2nd and $6.81 billion on December 3rd. Not only did this drive U.S. stocks up, but gold broke above $1400 an ounce and oil hit $90 a barrel – both inflation indicators. The rising price of oil is particularly significant since oil tends to hit seasonal lows in December and February and yet it is going up now instead of down. Higher oil prices percolate through the economy and lead to higher prices for a large number of items. They also increase the U.S. trade deficit, which means the government has to borrow or print even more money in order to fund it.Despite the obvious inflationary implications of quantitative easing, the Fed consistently denies it will lead to inflation even though excess money printing has always led to inflation in the past. The original form of money printing was cutting the amount of gold or silver in coins. It only took a short time before coinage was invented in 600 to 700 B.C.E. before one of the Greek city states caught on to this idea – the government had over borrowed and wanted to pay back the money it owed with cheaper currency (this should sound familiar to Americans in 2010). Paper money was invented by the Chinese before 1000 A.D., but they eventually had to stop using it because they made so much of it that it led to huge inflation. The lessons of what happens when too much money it created go way back – yet governments continue to it over and over again and with the same predictable outcome. Yet, even though I have researched this extensively, I have not found any government that ever admitted its role in creating inflation. It’s always someone else or something else that is responsible.Most market observers are bullish on the market because expansionary Fed policies should make stocks go up. We have not only had a zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) since December 2008, but the Fed is on its second round of money printing through quantitative easing. Under ordinary circumstances, the stock market should be rising. However, circumstances have hardly been ordinary since the Credit Crisis began.We only have to look at what happened to the Japanese stock market to predict the long-term impact of current Fed policies. The Japanese have had close to zero interest rates for most of the 2000s. They also started engaging in quantitative easing. This didn’t keep the Nikkei, which was close to 40,000 at its height at the beginning of 1990, from falling below 8000 in 2003 and in 2008/2009. The Japanese made other attempts to push their stock market up as well – and these worked temporarily. Ultimately economic reality prevailed however. In the long run this approach is not likely to work any better for Fed Chair Ben Bernanke.The current quantitative easing program of the Fed is not working as planned either. Interest rates were supposed to go down and so was the trade-weighted U.S. dollar. Neither has happened. Interest rates went up – and this is a negative for the market – and the dollar also went up instead of going down. Interest rates are possibly going up because foreigners are selling some of their large holdings of U.S. treasuries (the exporting countries are extremely angry at Bernanke’s policies). The dollar is going up because of the banking crisis in Ireland. The 85 billion euro bailout there has not calmed markets because everyone realizes that there are major problems remaining in Portugal and Spain. Both countries deny they need a bailout, but so did Ireland right up to the last minute.The market is also rising on economic data that is being reported as "good." This is mostly wishful thinking on the part of the mass media and the government press releases that they publish without much examination or by putting in context. Auto sales and consumer confidence have been two oft cited pieces of evidence of an improving economy.Auto sales which are supposedly taking place at a rate of 12.2 million a year have frequently been brought up as evidence of a recovering economy. At the bottom of the Credit Crisis, when the economy literally stopped dead in it tracks, auto sales were approximately 10 million a year and at the top they were 17 million a year. So, they are indeed doing better than they did when the economy was completely frozen (whether this can be referred to as a recovery is quite another matter). The improvement in auto sales taking place now though is nothing compared to the increases in the 1930s during the Great Depression, which lasted for many years after the first big increases in auto sales were reported.Consumer confidence rising to the 54 level also got a lot of hype. The number needs to be over 90 to indicate an economy that is doing just OK. The number during a boom would be well over 100. The slight chances in this figure are nothing but statistical noise – meaningless changes caused by random movements. What caused the slight increase were consumers becoming more confident about the future state of the economy. This is not surprising since they keep reading in the papers and hearing on TV that the economy is getting better, even though they don’t see it in the everyday lives. The "present conditions" number is still at an incredibly low 24. It has been stuck around this level for a quite a long time.The November employment figures last Friday also threw some cold water on the economic recovery scenario. The government admitted to unemployment rising to a rate of 9.8%. The underemployment rate, which includes some discouraged workers and people forced to work part time was 17.0%. There has been little change in these figures during 2010. Investors should remember that the stimulus bill from early 2009 was supposed to prevent unemployment from rising above 8.0%. The Fed’s first round of quantitative easing was also supposed to fix the economy. Even though both failed, Washington is one of the few places where lack of success isn’t a reason for not repeating an action.The failure of Washington’s policies can be seen by how little the GDP improved despite the massive stimulus that has been applied. In fiscal year 2010 (ending September 30th), the U.S. ran a budget deficit of 1,290 billion dollars (or $1.29 trillion). During the same time period, the GDP increased by 635.5 billion dollars or slightly less than half of the budget deficit. So for every two dollars being run in deficits, the U.S. is getting less than a dollar of economic growth (and this is with a zero interest rates on Fed funds, the return would diminish as interest rates got higher). The borrowed money for the deficit still has to be paid back or reduced by creating inflation. There is no way the U.S. will be able to pay back its national debt (the accumulation of all the annual deficits) and the higher the total becomes the greater the inflation that will eventually be necessary to deal with it.At the moment, the U.S. stock market looks like it could be topping. Along with the volatility, the technical indicators, such as the RSI, MACD and DMI are fairly negative. The Dow industrial Average broke below its 50-day moving average in late November, but rose above it on December 1st. The Dow is leading the market down and it should be watched for the future direction of the market. The other major indices – the S&P 500, the Nasdaq and the small cap Russell 2000 - have still managed to stay above their simple 50-day moving averages. Until all the indices have fallen below their 50-day moving averages, the stock market should still be considered to be in an uptrend.While there will always be some stocks that go up no matter how bad the market, at the moment, it is a generally a good idea to avoid buying any more stocks or commodity ETFs. The upside profit potential is probably limited. If you have large profits, you should consider taking some money off the table. The classic trading rule of thumb is that if you have a 100% profit in something, you should sell half of your position. It also a good idea to keep reasonable stops (an automatic sell at a price you have selected before hand). What is a reasonable stop depends on how much profit you are willing to potentially give up.If you have a large portfolio and wish to hedge it or you just want to take a short position on the market, you can do so by buying the VXX, the ETF for the VIX (the volatility index). The VXX is not perfect because it unfortunately doesn’t precisely track the VIX. The big advantage of the VIX is that when it gets very low, there is limited downside risk of loss (shorting a stock can have an infinite risk of loss). In the current environment, a VIX around 18 or below seems to be a good buy. It is possible that the VIX still has to fill a gap in the 16s to 17s. If this happens - and it may not – this should be considered a very good buy point. Like all investment positions, it’s generally not a good idea to buy 100% of the position you ultimately want all at once. Buying on days when the market is up a lot is the best approach. Investors should be cautious at this point. The bullishness seems overdone and things always look best at a top. The market could indeed go higher, but a lot of risk is being taken on to make whatever extra money can be made. If you are a day trader or very short-term trader, this can be a profitable time for you. For position traders, with a trade horizon of several months or more, this is not the best of times for additional long positions.’

After a Good Start, Stocks Sputter Late, Barely Break Even Midnight Trader 4:15 PM, Dec 7, 2010 --

* NYSE down 1.03 (-0.01%) to 7,739.66

* DJIA down 3.03 (-0.03%) to 11,359

* S&P 500 up 0.63 (+0.1%) to 1,224

* Nasdaq up 3.57 (+0.1%) to 2,598

GLOBAL SENTIMENT

* Hang Seng up 0.82%

* Nikkei down 0.26%

* FTSE up 0.78%

UPSIDE MOVERS

(+) CPST inks new order

(+) STX started at Buy at Citi.

(+) SGMO presents positive clinical data.

(+) DG upgraded.

(+) IPCI gets ANDA for generic Focalin XR 30 mg.

(+) GOOG upgraded.

(+) STEM gets approval to conduct first stem cell trial in spinal cord injury.

(+) UL upgraded.

DOWNSIDE MOVERS

(-) BMY reports with Abbott study data on mutliple myeloma treatment.

(-) AZO beats Q1 estimates.

(-) SMG sells unit to Israel Chemicals for $270 mln.

(-) MMM updates 2010, 2011 guidance in range that straddles Street view.

(-) GFI upgraded.

(-) ESLR announces recapitalization plan.

(-) TLB issues mixed results.

(-) XING reports sales drop.

MARKET DIRECTION

Stock averages closed little changed, well off the earlier highs that pushed the broad S&P 500 to two-year highs. A firmer dollar late in the day sapped some of the stock market's strength.

Markets generally welcomed a deal to extend U.S. tax breaks and hope emerged for progress in resolving European debt issues. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose to 3.12%, its highest level since July 13. Oil prices jumped above $90 a barrel for the first time in more than two years. Gold slipped after a six-session win streak.

On Monday evening, President Barack Obama detailed a tentative deal with congressional Republicans to extend tax cuts up and down the brackets for the next two years and renew unemployment benefits for millions of people.

Wall Street generally welcomed a White House-GOP compromise to extend tax breaks, while hopes for Ireland budget austerity measures lifted global investor sentiment.

Financials were broadly higher on Ireland's news. Citigroup (C) rose 4% after the government said late Monday it reached a deal to sell its remaining stake in the bank for a $12 billion profit.

Deal news was also supportive. Nicor jumped after the natural gas distributor said it had agreed to be acquired by AGL Resources for about $2.38 billion in cash and stock.

Also, Aetna Inc. (AET) shares were higher following news the health insurer made a $500-million bid to acquire Medicity, a health information exchange technology company based in Salt Lake City, Utah.

Pfizer (PFE) shares were higher on a report that CEO Jeffery Kindler was pushed out after he refused to name a head of operations as a part of an accord by senior managers in September, Bloomberg reports. Kindler reportedly quit hours before a special board meeting to discuss his future.

Salesforce.com (CRM) unveiled its new Database.com service today in an effort to diversify its lineup of business software. The move also puts the company in a $21 billion database program market dominated by Oracle (ORCL), Reuters reported. Salesforce.com's traditional business is software that helps companies manage their sales and marketing activities.

Orexigen Therapeutics (OREX) shares were near flat in the regular session as the company told a U.S. Food and Drug Administration panel that its Contrave weight-loss drug can help patients lose weight safely, according to a Reuters report on the matter. The FDA has rejected two diet drugs this year and will likely have hard questions on the pill's effect on blood pressure, pulse rates and other matters.

Shares of Barnes & Noble (BKS) were up after a Wall Street Journal report said the bookstore chain likely won't be sold for less than $20 a share. The report cited people familiar with the matter. Eight to 10 private-equity firms are deciding whether to submit second-round bids.

Meanwhile, The New York Times (NYT) was up after it says it expects Q4 print advertising revenue to improve sequentially, helping 2010 earnings top last year's. Print-advertising revenue in Q4 will decline by about 4% compared with the year-earlier quarter, the company said.

Google Inc. (GOOG) gained after the online search engine company reportedly started a new translation service aimed at businesses that sell their products internationally. Google Ads for Global Advertisers was designed to help companies find customers in international markets, Google said in an e-mailed statement to Bloomberg News. The program will be available in 43 languages. Separately, BMO Capital initiated coverage on the stock with an "outperform" rating and a $700 target.

Wells Fargo Corp (WFC) was up on reports the bank intends to soon increase its dividend and start share buybacks.

Shares of 3M (MMM) fell after the company issued guidance that disappointed the Street. The company anticipates sales of $29 billion to $30.5 billion, 3M also expects that 2011 earnings will be between $5.90 and $6.10 per share, which includes a $0.27 per share year-on-year increase in pension expense. Excluding the 2011 pension expense increase, 2011 earnings are expected to be in the range of $6.17 to $6.37 per share, an increase of 10 to 14 percent versus 2010 estimated GAAP earnings levels. The mean analyst estimate in the Thomson Reuters survey is for $6.20 per share on $29.1 billion in sales.

Video: US Will Need Major Tax Increases, Not Cuts Last Friday at Minyanville's Festivus event, Yahoo's Tech Ticker set up shop and sat down with David Stockman. The two discussed the President's Deficit Commission Panel's failure to get the 14 votes necessary to send the recommendations to Congress. Stockman doesn't believe the discussions in the government have made any progress, calling it more of a "sideshow." But the real story, he says, is "not what they failed to do in the long term...," it's what happens next week and the week after as Congress negotiates with the White House. David says, "We're going to extend all the Bush tax cuts whether we can afford it or not... We need major tax increases and we're going to have them year after year."…’

Crude jumps above $90 Reuters | U.S. crude oil futures prices rose sharply on Tuesday, pushing above $90 a barrel for the first time in 26 months.

Gold ends at record on Europe’s woes, dollar fears MarketWatch | Gold futures settled at a record Monday.

‘Scariest jobs chart ever’ shows post-recession unemployment is at its worst since World War Two Mail Online | Some commentators have described the comparison as ‘the scariest jobs chart ever’, pointing to the fact that only the 2001 recession took longer to bring employment back to pre-crisis levels.

Euro at risk of collapse, says Treasury watchdog as economic crisis sweeps Continent Daily Mail | The Euro is at risk of collapse as economic crisis sweeps the continent, Britain’s independent Treasury watchdog warned last night.

Some European Countries Are Bankrupt: Jim Rogers Some countries in Western Europe are bankrupt or are having serious liquidity problems and they should be allowed to restructure their debt, famous investor Jim Rogers told CNBC Tuesday.

Euro at risk of collapse, says Treasury watchdog as economic crisis sweeps Continent The Euro is at risk of collapse as economic crisis sweeps the continent, Britain’s independent Treasury watchdog warned last night.

How Effective Would a Payroll Tax Holiday Be In Spurring Employment and Stimulating the Economy? Obama’s tax deal with Republicans extends the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy for another 2 years.

Gold bullion extends to fresh record at $1429.60 Gold futures continue to post record highs today, as they extend a 6-day bullish run which has already added $50 a troy ounce over that period.

Jobless Recovery?: 25 Unemployment Statistics That Are Almost Too Depressing To Read ‘… Unemployment is up again! That’s right – even though Wall Street is swimming in cash and the Obama administration is declaring that “the recession is over”, the U.S. unemployment rate has gone even higher. So are you enjoying the jobless recovery? Economic Collapse Blog Dec 4, 2010 ‘Guess what? Unemployment is up again! That’s right – even though Wall Street is swimming in cash and the Obama administration is declaring that “the recession is over”, the U.S. unemployment rate has gone even higher ... Times are really, really tough and unfortunately the long-term outlook is very bleak. We should have compassion on those who are out of work right now, because soon many of us may join them.

The following are 25 unemployment statistics that are almost too depressing to read….

#1 According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the U.S. unemployment rate for November was 9.8 percent. This was up from 9.6 percent in October, and it continues a trend of depressingly high unemployment rates. The official unemployment number has been at 9.5 percent or higher for well over a year at this point.

#2 In November 2006, the “official” U.S. unemployment rate was just 4.5 percent.

#3 Most economists had been expecting the U.S. economy to add about 150,000 jobs in November. Instead, it only added 39,000.

#4 In the United States today, there are over 15 million people who are “officially” considered to be unemployed for statistical purposes. But everyone knows that the “real” number is even much larger than that.

#5 As 2007 began, there were just over 1 million Americans that had been unemployed for half a year or longer. Today, there are over 6 million Americans that have been unemployed for half a year or longer.

#6 The number of “persons not in the labor force” in the United States recently set another new all-time record.

#7 It now takes the average unemployed American over 33 weeks to find a job.

#8 When you throw in “discouraged workers” and “underemployed workers”, the “real” unemployment rate in the state of California is actually about 22 percent.

#9 In America today there are not nearly enough jobs for everyone. In fact, there are now approximately 5 unemployed Americans for every single job opening.

#10 According to The New York Times, Americans that have been unemployed for five weeks or less are three times more likely to find a new job in the coming month than Americans that have been unemployed for over a year.

#11 The U.S. economy would need to create 235,120 new jobs a month to get the unemployment rate down to pre-recession levels by 2016. Does anyone think that there is even a prayer that is going to happen?

#12 There are 9 million Americans that are working part-time for “economic reasons”. In other words, those Americans would gladly take full-time jobs if they could get them, but all they have been able to find is part-time work.

#13 In 2009, total wages, median wages, and average wages all declined in the United States.

#14 As of the end of 2009, less than 12 million Americans worked in manufacturing. The last time that less than 12 million Americans were employed in manufacturing was in 1941.

#15 The United States has lost at least 7.5 million jobs since the recession began.

#16 Today, only about 40 percent of Ford Motor Company’s 178,000 workers are employed in North America, and a big percentage of those jobs are in Canada and Mexico.

#17 In 1959, manufacturing represented 28 percent of U.S. economic output. In 2008, it represented 11.5 percent.

#18 Earlier this year, one poll found that 28% of all American households had at least one member that was looking for a full-time job.

#19 In the United States today, over 18,000 parking lot attendants have college degrees.

#20 The United States has lost a staggering 32 percent of its manufacturing jobs since the year 2000.

#21 As the employment situation continues to stagnate, millions of American families have decided to cut back on things such as insurance coverage. For example, the percentage of American households that have life insurance coverage is at its lowest level in 50 years.

#22 Unless Congress acts, and there is no indication that is going to happen, approximately 2 million Americans will stop receiving unemployment checks over the next couple of months.

#23 A poll that was released by the Pew Research Center back in June discovered that an astounding 55 percent of the U.S. labor force has experienced either unemployment, a pay decrease, a reduction in hours or an involuntary move to part-time work since the economic downturn began.

#24 According to Richard McCormack, the United States has lost over 42,000 factories (and counting) since 2001.

#25 In the United States today, 317,000 waiters and waitresses have college degrees.

But this is what we get for creating the biggest debt bubble in the history of the world. For decades we have been digging a deeper hole for ourselves by going into increasingly larger amounts of debt. In America today, our entire economy is based on debt. Even our money is debt. We were fools if we ever thought this could go on forever. Just think about it. Have you ever gone out and run up a bunch of debt? It can be a lot of fun sitting behind the wheel of a new car, running your credit cards up to the limit and buying a beautiful big house that you cannot afford. But in the end what happens? It always catches up with you. Well, our collective debt is starting to catch up with us. There is a sea of red ink on every level of American society. It is only a matter of time before it destroys our economy. IF YOU THINK THAT THINGS ARE BAD NOW, JUST WAIT. THINGS ARE GOING TO GET A WHOLE LOT WORSE. A HORRIFIC ECONOMIC COLLAPSE IS COMING, AND IT IS GOING TO BE VERY, VERY PAINFUL.’

Howard Davidowitz on the Economy: "Here Are the Numbers ... WE'RE BROKE!" The U.S. economy "is a complete disaster," Howard Davidowitz declared here in July, the most recent in a string of dire predictions from Tech Ticker's most entertaining guest.On the eve of Thanksgiving, I asked Davidowitz if he had any regrets, or was ready to throw in the towel given recent signs of economic revival. Are you kidding me? "Here are the numbers...we're broke," Davidowitz declares, noting the U.S. government goes $5 billion deeper into debt every day and is facing $1 trillion-plus annual deficits for the next decade. "In other words, we're bankrupt."As with the economy, Davidowitz is unwaveringly consistent in his views on President Obama, calling him "deranged, dysfunctional and discredited."Results of the midterm election show "the people of this country think we are in a catastrophe," he says. "I'm with them."Check the accompanying video for more of Howard's unfettered opinions and stay tuned for additional clips from this interview. And...Happy Thanksgiving! Aaron Task is the host of Tech Ticker. You can follow him on Twitter at @atask or email him at altask@yahoo.com

Timid Tuesday: Is it Safe? Davis ‘… This is how we pay off our current debts and I think bondholders are simply happy to get anything out of a country that admits it owes $15Tn (1/4 of global GDP) but probably owes closer to $60Tn (entire global GDP) in the form of unfunded liabilities. The funniest thing about this (and you have to laugh) is to see Conservative pundits get on TV and talk about how we need to cut $100Bn worth of discretionary spending to "fix" this (while continuing to spend $1Tn on the military and $1Tn on tax cuts for the top 1% each year). There is no fixing this and even a Republican said you can’t fool all of the people all of the time.

THIS HOUSE OF CARDS IS TEETERING FOLKS – PLEASE BE CAREFUL OUT THERE! ‘

17 Things Worrying Investors Lloyd's Wall of Worry

Worry Count: 17

CHINA: 1,330,044,605 people can’t be wrong.

The PIIGS: Fasten your seatbelts. It’s gonna be a long, bumpy, expensive, weird, (insert your own adjective here) freak show of a ride.

CALIFORNIA AND THE OTHER 49 STATES: Not yet as dire as “The PIIGS”. Might I suggest the classier moniker of “The Prosciuttos” for the American basket-case states?

QE II: Gobble?

U.S. ECONOMY: The “Punky Brewster” of the global economic landscape.

UNEMPLOYMENT: Only thing worse than losing your job, losing your unemployment check. At least there’s the holiday season to cheer everyone up (read: heavy sarcasm).

TAXES: Praying to the Financial Market Gods that we don’t have another TARP-like vote fiasco.

OBAMA ADMINISTRATION PART II: Still two years before the Pres. election and the peanut gallery is already pleading for a Hail Mary Pass to get them back in the game.

HFT: Instead of beating up these liquidity supplying traders, let’s honor them with their very own stock exchange. But wait -- with no retail saps to pick-off they will never get that Day 1 opening bell tick. Perfect.

XMAS 2010: As my professor friend Nick says, “Nowadays Americans are dining off of two menus – The Million Dollar and the $0.99 Cent.” And both are pissed about it.

CURRENCIES: Poor Mr. Greenback. Does someone need a hug?

HOUSING CRISIS: Price Stabilization – Are we there yet? Just a little bit more. Are we there yet? Just a little bit more. Are we there yet? Just a little bit more….

INFLATION/DEFLATION: Fed Chief Ben B. comes out swinging from his heels in defense of inflation promotion. Don’t punch yourself out as this one is likely to go the distance.

COMMODITIES: Corrected but still sky high; fortunately these prices are only affecting core, basic, life-sustaining necessities and sparing our electronic gadgets and plus-sized SUVs. Whew!

INSIDER TRADING: Another black eye for Hedge Funds. I estimate that makes black eye number 6,597.

INTEREST RATES: South Korea and China slowly turning up the dial to “11”. On the other hand the U.S. has removed the dial altogether. This never ends well….

NORTH KOREA: Here we go again.

Jobless rate jumps to 9.8% as hiring slows (Washington Post) [ The reality is not a mystery! The nation’s been thrown under the bus for the greater good (wealth) of the very few (frauds on wall street, etc.); wall street giving out record bonuses from their accomplished fraud (with no-recession b.s. bernanke help) of $144 BILLION: Come on! This is gettin’ even more downright ridiculous (if that’s even possible)! Pending home foreclosure / distress sales up, oil prices (and oil stocks) up, debased dollar down, plus a little familiar ‘better than expected’ thrown in along with prospects of a ‘no-recession bernanke’ market-frothing bull session on 60 minutes and, voila, suckers’ rally into the close to keep the suckers suckered! What’s good for the frauds on wall street is bad for just about everyone else which includes the vast majority of people and businesses, domestically and globally, as current dollar manipulation / debasement ultimately results in higher costs and loss of purchasing power (ie., oil, etc.). Clearly, this is one of those fraudulent wealth transfers to the frauds on wall street et als which will ultimately be paid for by those who least are in a position to afford it, courtesy of the ever more worthless Weimar dollar, etc., inflating earnings, eps, lowering p/e multiples, etc., see infra. This is an especially great time to sell / take profits while you can since there's much worse to come! Previous: Rosy numbers on consumer sentiment, unemployment (far better than private forecasts) from the government prior to the holiday so-called ‘shop till you drop’? How can anyone believe anything they say? Najerian interviewed by Motek chimes in with the reason for good retail cheer; viz., people have stopped paying their mortgages and are using the funds to purchase retail goods; while Davidowitz adds that with record numbers of americans on food stamps, real unemployment at 17+, and wall street giving out record bonuses from their accomplished fraud (with no-recession b.s. bernanke help) of $144 BILLION … the high end stores / jewelers will do well … daaaaah! And, with insiders and wall street frauds selling into the bubble as preceded last crash, this is an especially great opportunity to sell / take profits! Suckers’ rally on light volume, full moon, and government complicity (false data / reports) to keep suckers suckered (easy for the wall street frauds to do with just a mouse click / push of the button – and, they know all those technical trade lines that are easy to program in this current phase of the scam/fraud with the debased dollar). Keep in mind, the totally mindless blather from the ‘cottage industries’ of and fraudulent wall street itself in talking up lower P/E multiples when the same is a direct result of the debasement of the dollar and the consequent manipulation / translation (not real, see Davis, infra) which preceded the financial crisis / last crash. Unemployment, trade, deficit, etc., numbers continue decidedly worse than expected along with other negative data (and in the ‘wrong direction’, that spin accorded ‘down but not as bad as before’ b* s* ) yet the market has rallied like no tomorrow with used home foreclosure / distressed sales, though abated owing to ‘foreclosuregate’, the other ‘heralded’ good news. Moreover, the dumbo lemmings of Europe have jumped on the fraudulent defacto bankrupt american crazy train propelled to the precipice also as if no tomorrow. This is about keeping the suckers sucked in with the help of a market-frothing pre-election debased dollar for favorable currency translation and paper (but not real when measured in, ie., gold, etc.) profits which preceded the last crisis, inflating a bubble as in the last crisis to facilitate the churn-and-earn, particularly with computerized (and high frequency) trades and which commissions they’ll get again on the way down. There is nothing to support these overbought stock prices, fundamentally or otherwise. These are desperate criminals ‘at work’. Even wall street shill, the senile Buffett is saying we’re still in a recession (depression) [ Davis: ‘… all profits are inflated by 10% (from falling, debased dollar) and that 10% is the E that gets divided from the P and gives us a much better price/multiple to hang our hats on and that gets investors to BUYBUYBUY …’ The bull market that never was / were beyond wall street b.s. when measured in gold ] This is a great opportunity to sell / take profits (these lower dollar, hyperinflationary currency manipulations / translations to froth paper stocks will end quite badly as in last crash)! This is a global depression. This is a secular bear market in a global depression. The past up moves were manipulated bull (s***) cycles (at best) in a secular bear market. This has been a typically manipulated bubble as has preceded the prior crashes with great regularity that the wall street frauds and insiders commission and sell into. This is a typical wall street ‘programmed computerized high-frequency churn and earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud as in prior crashes ( widely reported, high-frequency trading routinely accounts for more than 50% of daily U.S. equity trading volume and regularly approaches 70%. )’. This national decline, economic and otherwise, will not end until justice is served and the wall street frauds et als are criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed.The Stock Market's Long Decline Has Begun Smith ]

(12-07-10) Dow 11,359 -3 Nasdaq 2,598 +3 S&P 500 1,223 -0- [CLOSE- OIL $88.69 (-54% for year 2008) (RECORD TRADING HIGH $147.27) GAS $3.00 (reg. gas in LAND OF FRUITS AND NUTS $3.20 REG./ $3.29 MID-GRADE/ $3.39 PREM./ $3.79 DIESEL) / GOLD $1,409 (+24% for year 2009) / SILVER $29.78 (+47% for year 2009) PLATINUM $1,686 (+56% for year 2009) / DOLLAR= .75 EURO, 83 YEN, .63 POUND STERLING, ETC. (How low can you go - LOWER)/ http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/update 10 YR NOTE YIELD 3.16% …..… AP Business Highlights ...Yahoo Market Update... T. Rowe Price Weekly Recap – Stocks / Bonds / Currencies - Domestic / International This Is a Secular Bear Market and The End of Buy and Hold … and Hope MARKET MANIPULATION AND HOW THE LATEST BUBBLE-FRAUD PRE-COMING CRASH IS BEING ACCOMPLISHED 3-11-10 6 Theories On Why the Stock Market Has Rallied 3-9-10 [archived website file] Risks Lurk for ETF Investors The bull market that never was/were beyond wall street b.s. when measured in gold Property Values Projected to Fall 12% in 2010 Jan 31, 2010 The Week Ahead: Risk Is Off the Cliff; Unwind Has Begun Jan 31, 2010 01-13-10 Forecast for 2010 from Seeking Alpha Contributor THE COMING MARKET CRASH / CORRECTION 1-28-10 Maierhofer (01-15-10) 11 Clear Signs Economy Sinking Economic Black Hole 1-22-10: 20 Reasons Why The U.S. Economy Is Dying And Is Simply Not Going To Recover Current Economic / Fiscal Charts Trendsresearch.com forecast for 2009 1-7-10 Crash is coming! ‘WORST ECONOMIC COLLAPSE EVER’ Must Read Economic / Financial Data This Depression is just beginning The coming depression… thecomingdepression.net MUST READ: JEREMY GRANTHAM’S QUARTERLY UPDATE 25 January 2010 (850 on the S&P) by TPC The Next Wave of Collapse is Coming Sooner than you think Sliding Back Into the Great Depression ABSOLUTELY, ABSURDLY, RIDICULOUS! SELL / TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME!

National / World

WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange arrested in Britain [ I wish I could say I didn’t see this coming; but, truth be told, though nonplused by the choice, I held out hope that there was method to his traveling to Orwellian Britain, hardly a first choice where people therein walk around with thumbs up their a*s; you know, where their brains are. After all, what can you expect from ‘good Germans’ (That lock-step, goose-step, following orders thing. I’m sure you know the so-called ‘royal family’ of Britain are Germans, not Anglos. The neo-nazis are zionist israel, america and u.s. allies. ). Lap-dogs to the pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt war criminal nation u.s., one can hardly expect anything resembling rationality or meaningful rules of law but rather short-term expedience, however unlawful, self-destructive, and destructive. Murder threats to family of Julian Assange WIKILEAKS founder Julian Assange says militant supporters of the US military have made death threats against his family in Australia. Alex Jones: Assange and the Plan to Censor the Internet Infowars.com** | Woman claiming rape connected to CIA anti-Castro terrorist guilty of killing 73 people in 1976. (Drudgereport: `NO BAIL...`
`Assange 'sabotaged condom' during one night stand... Refused to wear one during another... Stockholm police: Both women are victims... INTERPOL WARRANT FOR NOT WEARING PROTECTION?ASSANGE UNDER ARREST:`
`'HE DIDN'T WEAR A CONDOM'` ) Julian Assange refused bail over rape allegations WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange was today refused bail and remanded in custody until 14 December over claims he committed sex offences in Sweden. Assange Set Up By CIA Operative? Wikileaks founder Julian Assange’s arrest over the dubious rape and molestation claims of two Swedish women is likely a political stunt, after it was revealed that one of the women has connections to the CIA and is a militant feminist who published a guide on how to get revenge on men and make them “suffer”. ] WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange has been arrested by British police on a European warrant issued by Sweden over allegations of sex crimes including rape, London’s Metropolitan Police said on Tuesday.

FCC Push to Sovietize Broadcast Media in America Last week FCC Commissioner Michael Copps suggested broadcasters be subject to a new “public values test” every four years. Copps said that the test would make a broadcaster’s license renewal contingent upon evidence that they meet a prospective set of federal criteria.

Just Released: Julian Assange Op-Ed In The Australian Don’t shoot messenger for revealing uncomfortable truths.

24 Signs That All Of America Is Becoming Just Like Detroit – A Rotting, Post-Industrial, Post-Apocalyptic Wasteland [ This is more true than most care to believe or admit. In the scheme of things, america will be viewed as but a brief, destructive, self-immolating flame. ] For years, people have been laughing at the horrific economic decline of Detroit. Well, guess what? The same thing that happened to Detroit is now happening to dozens of other communities across the United States.

Defend Julian Assange and WikiLeaks The release of secret U.S. diplomatic cables by WikiLeaks last week has caused the further unraveling of certain psychopathic public officials within Washington who most represent and defend the barbaric, evil, and criminal United States government.

Actual Wiki Cables Belie NYT’s Version of Saudi / Gulf States’ Stance on Iran The dominant theme that emerged in U.S. media coverage of the first round of Wikileaks diplomatic cables last week was that Arab regimes in the Gulf – led by Saudi Arabia – shared Israel’s view that Iran’s nuclear program had to be stopped by military force, if necessary.

Rage Against Cash Machine: Bank Run Day take-away to trash financial terror? French bankers have a nervous day ahead. They’re waiting to see whether a campaign calling on depositors to withdraw all their money will really catch on. It’s been organized by a former French football star against what he calls the ‘corrupt and criminal’ financial system.

US military threatens soldiers not to read Wikileaks The US military in Iraq is warning soldiers not to access the documents released by WikiLeaks, informing them it could result in their computers being “sanitized.”

Cops Violate Private Property, Leave Behind Propaganda Chris Jewell | Canada’s Merry Christmas police state.

M.I.A. creates controversy pulling skeletons out of CIA ‘closet’ Infowars.com | The new album Maya by controversial recording artist M.I.A. highlights connections between Google and C.I.A. run organizations like Keyhole Corporation.

Alex Jones Rant: DHS & TSA Invading America TheAlexJonesChannel | Alex Jones rails against the 1984-style “Telescreens” that Homeland Security plans to unroll in over 800 Wal-

Big Sis Invasion of Walmart Start of Obama’s Civilian Security Force Paul Joseph Watson | 1984-style Homeland Security telescreens in Wal-Mart stores represent pathetic new low in America’s collapse into a dictatorial banana republic.

TSA Agents Complain Over Body Scanner Radiation Exposure TSA workers are complaining about the amounts of radiation they are being exposed to on a daily basis in the wake of the mass introduction of body scanners to airports around the country.

Savage Slams “Lunatic” Big Sis For Wal-Mart Invasion Popular talk show host Michael Savage reacted with fury to yesterday’s announcement by Homeland Security that Big Sis would be encouraging Americans to spy on each other at Wal-Mart stores, slamming Janet Napolitano as a lunatic who belongs in an asylum and warning that the program was about identifying ‘blonde haired, blue eyed’ Americans as domestic terrorists.

Americans Outraged As Big Sis Launches DHS Invasion Of Society Americans have reacted with outrage to Big Sis Janet Napolitano’s announcement that Homeland Security messages encouraging shoppers to spy on each other will play at Wal-Mart checkouts, but the announcement is part of a wider takeover of America that will see the DHS invade virtually every aspect of public life in the United States as the country sinks into a decrepit banana republic.

WikiLeaks won’t release key to ‘insurance’ file, despite Assange arrest The website Wikileaks will continue publishing leaked US embassy cables but won’t release the encryption key for its 200,000 cable “insurance file” despite the arrest of its founder, Julian Assange.

Drudgereport: NO BAIL...
Assange 'sabotaged condom' during one night stand... Refused to wear one during another... Stockholm police: Both women are victims... INTERPOL WARRANT FOR NOT WEARING PROTECTION?ASSANGE UNDER ARREST:
'HE DIDN'T WEAR A CONDOM'Under arrest, will Assange dump the Doomsday Files?
Assange: Don't shoot messenger for revealing uncomfortable truths...
FLASHBACK: HILLARY COMPLAINS GOVERNMENTS BLOCK FREE FLOW OF INFO ON INTERNET...
WIKILEAKS: LIVE UPDATES... FCC push to regulate news draws fire...
Lieberman: NYT may have committed crime by printing WIKILEAKS docs...
US to Host World Press Freedom Day in 2011 … [ What a total travesty! The u.s. as host … What a cruel joke! ] ... OBAMA RACES TO CUT TAXES BEFORE REPUBLICANS: 6.2% Social Security tax would drop to 4.2% for workers for one year... MORETHE NEW OBAMA! SURPRISE TAX CUT MOVE [ As with defacto bankrupt america generally, more defacto bankrupt social security system, etc., are distinctions without significant differences. ]
OIL HITS $89...
Pump prices hit 2-year high... Schwarzenegger Declares Fiscal Emergency, Proposes $9.9 Billion In Cuts...
Top Democrats defect, join unified GOP... WIKILEAKS' Assange Will Release Encrypted Files If Arrested...
Cables Reveal How US Manipulated Climate Accord...
Cable: China Leaders Ordered Hacking on GOOGLE...
Meddling by Neighbors Adds to Iraq's Woes...
Government Workers Ordered Not to Read Cables...
Gingrich: Leaks Show Admin 'Shallow,' 'Amateurish'...
McConnell: Assange a 'High-Tech Terrorist'...
List of facilities 'vital to US security' leaked...
Mirror Sites Appear by the Hundreds...
Assange Speaks...
Hillary Jokes...
US forced to shake up embassies around world...THE DOOMSDAY FILESPAPER: Wave goodbye to Internet freedom... [ I’m absolutely astounded that the world is not profoundly grateful to Assange et als for providing insight into the machinations and insanity of pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt america, et als who wreaked havoc on the world as they pillage, plunder, and destroy (lives, nations, etc.). ] +39,000 JOBS IN NOVEMBER...
BOEHNER: Dem Leaders Should Stop Wasting Time on Tax Hike Votes...
HALPERIN: Dems 'In Midst of Nervous Breakdown'... Obama Makes Surprise Trip to Afghanistan...
Flies 7,000 miles -- talks to Karzai for 15 minutes on phone!
Forgets the Coast Guard...
Leaves Biden behind to handle 'disappointing' jobs report... Reid, funded by casinos, pushes online gambling...
ABCNEWS accused of breaking embargo...
2010 death toll of US troops nears that of 2001-2008 combined... OBAMA SPEECHWRITER JOKES ABOUT TSA GROPING: Allows 'defrocked priests to give back to society'...
US Deficit-Cutting Plan Falls Short of Needed Votes...UNEMPLOYMENT UP TO 9.8%HILLARY: Secretary of State will be 'my last public position'... ... PITCHE$ $IGNED DVD ON HOME $HOPPING NETWORK..
US TO BAILOUT EU [ Riiiiight! Sounds like a plan! After all, in defacto bankrupt america money does grow on trees … derivatively (pun intended) that is … you know … that ever more worthless fiat paper currency … and ultimately, existentially, philosophically, doesn’t paper come from trees … sure it does …so, no problemo since money grows on trees. ]
BOMBSHELL: European banks took big slice of Fed aid...
Hundreds of billions of dollars...
Fed reveals global extent of its backing... ]

Funds went to stalwarts of American industry including GE and Caterpillar and household-name companies such as Verizon, new data show.
GEORGIA: HUNDREDS LINE UP IN COLD FOR HEAT HELP...
Assistance Funds Quickly Depleted...
'Almost like being in soup line during great depression'...
VIDEO...
DELAYING TAX VOTE COULD 'CRASH STOCK MARKET' STARTING 12/15 [ Come on! There’s no way to justify the tax cut to the top 1% including the frauds on wall street … their threats don’t hunt no more … the nation’s defacto bankrupt … see Davis, supra! ]
Chase Bank orders branch to remove Christmas tree... Cyber attack forces WIKILEAKS to change web address...
Respected media outlets collaborate with organization... [ Said outlets and other disseminators and of course Wikileaks deserve accolades for the advancement of first amendment liberties in the name of an informed global body politick for all.]
UPDATE: Latest developments...
Foreign contractors hired Afghan 'dancing boys'...
Embassy cables portray Karzai as corrupt, erratic...
CIA drew up UN spying wishlist...
Assange speaks... UPDATE: Latest WIKILEAKS developments...
Foreign contractors hired Afghan 'dancing boys'...
Embassy cables portray Karzai as corrupt, erratic...
CIA drew up UN spying wishlist... SANTA CLAUSE: FED AID WENT TO COMPANIES, BANKS, OFFSHORE...
SECRETLY BAILED OUT GE -- GE NEWS OUTLETS FAILED TO REVEAL IN FED COVERAGE... SANTA CLAUSE: FORD, BMW, TOYOTA Took Secret Government Money......
Fed Created Conflicts in Improvising Financial System Rescue...
Tax Breaks for Bailout Recipients Spark Debate...
MORE SECRETS: Fed Withholds Data for $885 Billion in Loans... RUSSIA TO HOST '18 WORLD CUP FINALS...
Qatar selected '22 host over USA, others... 'AMERICAN PSYCHO' musical in works... [ I recommend the derivative films, American Psycho and American Psycho 2, for insight! ] National Board of Review: SOCIAL NETWORK named best film... [ National board of what? ‘Inception’ is by far and away the ‘Best Film’ across the board, in all categories, and on the list! ] LIST...

BANK OF AMERICA Becoming 'Bank of Asia' as Revenue Increases 30% ... RESET: PUTIN CRITICIZES USA OVER WIKILEAKS … [ Putin deserves the greatest deference in matters of global concern in light of his greater rationality; america’s self-serving accusations are merely envy and projection / displacement (in psychoanalytic terms) of america’s pervasively corrupt, criminal, broken system which is a far cry in reality from defacto bankrupt america’s propaganda.]...
REWARD: [ The payoff. Bribe complete! Next bribe scenario … ] CITI to Hire Obama's Ex-Budget Chief Orszag...
FLASHBACK: Rubin and friends ride NY-DC shuttle... ZUCKERMAN: Watching America's Decline and Fall [the moral authority of the West has dramatically declined in the face of the financial crisis. It has revealed deep fault lines within Western economies that have spread to the global economy. The majority of Western governments are running fiscal deficits of 10 percent or more relative to GDP, but it is increasingly clear that there will be no quick fixes, that big government and fiscal deficits will not bring us back to the status quo ante. Indeed, the tidal wave of red ink has meant that the leverage-led or debt-led growth model is dead. Developed countries will be forced to deal with their debt on every level, from the personal to the corporate to the sovereign. Being able to borrow may have made people feel richer, but having to repay the debt is certainly making them feel poorer, particularly since the unfunded liabilities that many governments face from aging populations will have to be paid for by a shrinking band of workers. (Ecoutez, mes amis!) Demography is destiny. As a result, there is a burgeoning consensus that we are witnessing an inevitable rise of the East and a decline of the West…( Harry Dent, Jr. Economy will be in a Depression by 2011 The worst of this next depression is likely to hit between mid-2010 and mid-2013, especially around early 2011, but if the banking system continues to implode a deep downturn or depression could begin sometime in 2009 instead of 2010. Dow will Fall to 3,800 – 4,500 by 2012 Nasdaq will Fall Below 1,100, its 2002 low, by late 2010 or mid-2012 at the latest. Inflation will Increase until mid- 2010 and then turn to Deflation Interest Rates will Increase U.S. Dollar will Decline Housing will Decline by 40 – 60% from Today’s Levels Greatest Economic and Banking Crisis since the 1930s will Occur Between 2010 and 2012). ) ]...
Interpol issues wanted notice for Julian Assange [ They just can’t take the truth! ] ...
US cuts access to files [ Think about it. Really think about it. Their policies are in the tank, along with the nation and the rest of this world as a consequence. Don’t those so detrimentally affected (everyone) have a right to know? I think in light of the global frauds, contrived perpetual wars though defacto bankruptcy of this and other nations, pervasive corruption and crime, failed policies domestically and geo-politically while serving the very parochial interests of the self-interested few, the answer is an unequivocal, YES! I believe that world history will write Mr. Assange as a hero in the truest sense. He should be given a medal; and, certainly, since mr. b*** s*** wobama undeservingly got a ‘nobel peace prize’ (what he does, not what he says, ie., Afghanistan, etc.), who more than Julian Assange is deserving of that and more? Cover-up / propaganda … thy name is fallen america.]...WIKILECTURE: 'HILLARY SHOULD RESIGN' ‘…Hillary Clinton, Julian Assange said, "should resign." Speaking over Skype from an undisclosed location on Tuesday, the WikiLeaks founder was replying to a question by TIME managing editor Richard Stengel over the diplomatic-cable dump that Assange's organization loosed on the world this past weekend. Stengel had said the U.S. Secretary of State was looking like "the fall guy" in the ensuing controversy, and had asked whether her firing or resignation was an outcome that Assange wanted. "I don't think it would make much of a difference either way," Assange said. "But she should resign if it can be shown that she was responsible for ordering U.S. diplomatic figures to engage in espionage in the United Nations, in violation of the international covenants to which the U.S. has signed up. Yes, she should resign over that."…’
CITY ON EDGE: Cash-Strapped Newark, new jersey Forced To Lay Off 14% Of Police Force... [ From decades old (1978-1985) direct personal experience with newark, n.j., the police are the absolute last cuts that can be afforded to be made. Indeed, while walking through Military Park (a sliver of a “park” - more a pedestrian thoroughfare/cement walks) in newark, new jersey on the way to the bank during lunch hour, I heard the clearly audible screams/cries of what turned out to be an old lady on the ground with blood streaming from her mouth. I ran toward the sound of the cries, the source of which I could not see because there were so many people in and about this thoroughfare so as to block any vision of the source of the cries. When I came to the woman, on the ground, blood streaming from her mouth, I asked what happened, to which she responded she had been hit in the mouth and knocked to the ground, her purse stolen/put inside her shopping bag, and she pointed out the criminal casually now walking across the main street. Nobody stopped to help her, many having passed her by. I slammed the thug to the ground so hard that, in light of all the blood and confusion (limbic system / adrenalin flow) I thought I had been stabbed (the blood was from his elbows hitting the pavement so hard - no one helped / a crowd gathered / an undercover cop happened along). When I testified at the Grand Jury Proceeding I made sure his threat on my life was set forth in prima facie fashion so as to maximize the DA’s position with both felonies ( he went to prison – pled out ). The other case I wrote about here ( This was included on my website in the Psychology forum discussion of ‘bystander effect’ / diffusion of responsibility. ) - Having had occasion to have run down a mugger in newark, n.j. who apparently had followed a girl from the bank on her way to the bursar to pay tuition, though in pretty good shape, I was astounded by how totally exhausting such a pursuit was, how much like rubber my arms were when I traded punches with the perpetrator, and truth be told, if I had a flashlight on my belt, I have little doubt that I would have probably used it to subdue the perp. The girl was not that seriously injured, did get her pocketbook and tuition back, and the criminal went to jail. The other thing about such a pursuit that amazed me was that no one else assisted the girl or me despite being in a position to do so). (Other newark / new jersey and new york, n.y. metro, viz., ie., connecticut, and of course, d.c., d.c. metro, viz., ie., virginia experience … corrupt federal judges as maryanne trump barry, sam alito, shiff, matz (california), hall, underhill, dorsey, etc.. Defacto bankrupt america’s so-called system is pervasively corrupt and broken (AP) Abolish the corrupt, costly, economically wasteful lifetime extravagantly appointed federal courts - see RICO case http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm ) ] Nation's '2nd Most Dangerous City' (camden, new jersey) To Lay Off Nearly Half Of Police Force... Chicagoland: Vandals torch Christmas charity van...

Carlyle Group planning IPO (Washington Post) [ Come on! Mr. Heath makes this sound like an almost public service endeavor to serve the public interest in some vague, nondescript fashion (What of real value do they do? … kind of like the fraudulent wall street high-frequency trading churn-and-earn … Nothing! … Like parasitic termites eating away at the foundation of the nation) . My view: poppy’s estate plan is maximized, along with the other principal’s financial interests, directly and / or indirectly, by cashing out through this ‘public offering / scam’ as for the most part, this era of their ‘jig is up’ . Meet The Carlyle Group - Former World Leaders and Washington ... How will President George W. Bush make a personal fortune from the War on Terror? The old fashioned way. He'll inherit it; Meet the Carlyle Group.
www.hereinreality.com/carlyle.html

How will President George W. Bush personally make million$, if not billion$ from the War on Terror? The easy way. He'll inherit it.

Meet the Carlyle Group

Former World Leaders and Washington Insiders Making Billions in the War on Terrorism

Bush Baker Carlucci Darman Major Ramos
US President

1988-1992

Former Director of the CIA Secretary of State

Bush Administration Secretary of Defense

Reagan Administration White House Budget Advisor

Bush / Clinton Administrations Former Prime Minister of UK

Former President of the Phillipines

Carlyle Senior Advisor Carlyle Senior Counselor Carlyle Chairman/CEO Carlyle Managing Director Carlyle Europe Chairman Carlyle Asia Advisory Board

http://www.angelfire.com/indie/pearly/htmls/bush-carlyle.html ] Investment giant says it will likely sell shares, which would require the very private firm to be transparent.

Pakistani anti-Taliban militias offer lessons for U.S. in Afghanistan (Washington Post) [ Riiiiight! The new pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt american talking point … the new american-induced inbred chaos, like ‘napalm in the morning in Vietnam’, smells like … victory… riiiiight! … sounds a new new new new new plan! ]

Feds tout anti-fraud successes (Washington Post) [ Come on! $10.4 billion? That’s not even a year’s interest on the trillions that are still out there now marked to anything; the products of their last and continuing fraud, even as I believe they’re swapping out hard (albeit fiat) currency for the worthless paper / securities to be paid for by … the taxpayers … again … and again … and again. What a collaborative scam … pac money for prosecution abatement … in the real world they’re called bribes, etc.. Then there’s also wall street giving out record bonuses from their accomplished fraud (with no-recession b.s. bernanke help) of $144 BILLION. WAKE UP! ] The charges are a result of "Operation Broken Trust," a 3 1/2-month effort to stop investment fraud that has caused $10.4 billion in investor losses.

Citigroup stake sold by U.S. (Washington Post) [ Yeah! Talk about the ultimate inside(r) trade … Then again it would look even worse for the gov’t to be obliged to bring a shareholder’s derivative suit on behalf of the taxpayers. ]Treasury says it's reached an agreement to sell its remaining 2.4 billion shares in the company for a deal that would net the government proceeds of $10.5B.

White House, GOP reach deal to extend tax cuts (Washington Post) [ Riiiiight! Sounds like a plan! Drudgereport: `OBAMA RACES TO CUT TAXES BEFORE REPUBLICANS: 6.2% Social Security tax would drop to 4.2% for workers for one year... MORETHE NEW WOBAMA! SURPRISE TAX CUT MOVE` As with defacto bankrupt america generally, more defacto bankrupt social security system, etc., are distinctions without significant differences. ] ]President Obama and congressional Republicans have agreed to a tentative deal that represents a concession to political reality: Democrats don't have the votes in Congress to extend only the expiring income tax breaks that benefit the middle class.

The Recent Correction Is Not Deep Enough Headley ‘A little good economic news (consumer confidence, challenger job cuts) early in the week sent stocks tumbling last Monday and Tuesday. Then a little bad news later last week (higher unemployment, factory orders) sent stocks soaring. Go figure. All told, it was the best (i.e. most gainful) week we've seen in the last four. Yet....As exciting as the last three trading days of last week must have been for the bulls, the wild rally carried the market back into an uncomfortably overbought condition again. That's not to say stocks can't keep rallying. In fact, the market was pretty much overbought throughout the September/November rally. Just know that without a healthy correction since the early November peak we've not seen a capitulation strong enough to really 'reload' the market and spur another big rally; from that peak to the mid-November low was only a 5.1% correction.We'll look at that idea below, after working through some of the key economic data.
Economic Outlook
There was plenty of good news about the economy last week. The Case-Shiller Index, for instance, confirmed that home prices inched higher again, consumer confidence swelled, construction spending was up, and more jobs were created than lost.Before popping the cork on the champagne bottle though, digest the fact that the unemployment rate moved up (by more than a little), factory orders were down, and mortgage applications plummeted.There was more going on than that though; the entire report card is below. As for grading the economy based on the sum of last week's data, we'd have to give it another C. In some ways that's good, and in some bad. It's good in the sense of "could be worse, while the 'bad' is that it's not a conclusive snapshot, which allows investors to interpret and reinterpret the data on a whim. And clearly, that's what happened last week.
Economic Calendar
[chart]
The coming week will be much less eventful, though important all the same. The pros are looking for another contraction in consumer credit levels (-$2.3B), which crimps the consumer spending that's needed to spur the recovery.Of course we'll hear about new and ingoing unemployment clams on Thursday - both should be flat. On Friday we'll get the initial Michigan Sentiment Index level for December, which at this point is expected to move higher, to 72.5.
S&P 500
The good news is, the S&P 500 jumped 35.31 points (+2.97%) last week to close out at 1224.71. The bad news is - and don't assume the worst just yet - there's a great deal of overbought pressure piling up.... not to mention a couple of other red flags. That in itself isn't the end of the world. In fact, being reeled in now may be just what the doctor ordered. It's better to start out a rally by first establishing a good base, and then methodically working past prior highs. To simply blast through prior ceilings while still in the shadow of a 14.3% rally (from late August to early November) like we seem to be attempting to do as of last week is a setup/invitation for some huge and rapid profit taking.Just for perspective, the average correction for the S&P 500 since March of 2009 has been on the order of 9%... and that was the average, meaning some were bigger. The smallest during that time was 7.8%. The November dip? A mere 5.1%. And the 14.3% rally that got us there in the first place? That's on the upper end of the 'normal' scale for bull market runs since March of 2009. Point being, we're really pushing our luck here by counting on significant more upside from here without a significant selloff first. As for what a 'significant selloff' would be, a pullback to the 1136 area would do just fine. That's where the lower Bollinger band is aligning with the 200-day moving average line, both of which have proven to be significant factors (reversal points) for quite some time. Although the idea of such a dip is alarming, it would only be about a 7.5% pullback from Friday's close. In those terms, a correction doesn't sound nearly as troubling; it would actually be a welcome release of all that overbought pressure. And, there are a couple of hints such a dip could be brewing. One is the fading buying volume over the past three trading days. The other is how the VIX is back near its lower Bollinger band again, which is pretty much where the market has rolled over - or at least stalled for a few days - since August. Putting all the pitfalls and red flags together technically puts the odds in favor of the bears, and against the bulls.
S&P 500 - Daily Chart
[chart]
What the market "should be doing" and what it "is doing", however, are often two different things. As overdue as we are for a dip, we can't fight the tape. If for some reason the S&P 500 does manage to punch through that upper band at 1230 (and subsequently hit new highs), that may well be enough to jump-start another leg of this bull market regardless of driving us further into the overbought problem. 'Tis the season, after all.The next couple of days are critical, for obvious reasons.
Industry Performance
It's been a while since we've posted an industry-ranking chart. There wasn't much need to, as everything was rallying or selling off in tandem. The same even goes for the broad sectors. Last week, however, we started to see some separation between the men and the boys... enough separation to suggest emerging leaders or decided laggards as we head into the New Year. There's a clear theme to most of the winners... industrial materials. If it's used to build a house or a machine or infrastructure, it was hot. Just be careful though, as many of those winners are also sitting atop big longer-term rallies. Aluminum may be an area you want to really focus on first.Many of the laggards were recently the market's leaders, proving it's not wise to try and lasso every shooting star. Indeed, some of those recent winners may now be prime short candidates now that they're starting to crumble; apparel and Internet stocks come to mind...’

Awful Employment Number, But Investors Act as if Bad News Is Good ‘ …Payrolls rose by only 39,000 employees in November, versus +150,000 that had been expected. There were net upward revisions of 38,000 to prior months, so that the net increase in jobs was 77,000. Moreover, the Unemployment Rate wasn’t steady. It didn’t go up 0.1%. It went up 0.2%, to 9.8%; it was actually 9.817%, so it wasn’t even that it was rounded up…the Rate legitimately rose. The labor force participation rate held at a 24-year-low of 64.5%; note that when the labor force participation rate rises, it tends to increase the Unemployment Rate at first since at first the new people in the labor force are merely looking. Believe it or not, there is a possibility that we haven’t seen the cyclical high in Unemployment yet…’

Why Not Silver, Too?: Dave's Daily ‘Goldfinger may "love only gold" but methinks he's more versatile. While gold continued its steady rally to new highs Monday, silver continues to put on a show rising nearly 3%. What's driving this? Some suggest there's still trouble with JPMs short position whether that's old news or not. Further silver bulls argue silver should be priced at its historical price ratio relationship to gold at around 18-1. If that were the case we'd be pushing $80. Finally, has Bernanke and the Fed given the green light to higher prices by saying POMO could increase if necessary?During Bernanke's 60 Minutes interview he stated he could reverse inflation in minutes if the Fed chose to raise interest rates. Since he said there was no inflation during the interview and added the possibility of greater POMO it seems he can't reverse himself now. Commodity exchanges will be pressured to raise margin requirements to cool markets. That can work spectacularly in the short-run anyway; but, the sense is silver is in short supply. Look, I've been in the business long enough to remember the Hunt Bros debacle in the late 70s. I also remember having a Commodity Trading Advisor being long silver futures in the mid-80s. Our clients were long at $8 and I went into a meeting with the price at $12. There I pondered what color my new Porsche would be and smirked at my peers. (Do you guys know how smart and sharp I am?) But, alas, I left the meeting an hour later to find silver back at $8. Given the experiences, I'd advise caution. Europe still has its ubiquitous problems that seem never to end. It's scary in the sense the current episode is reminiscent of the "drip, drip, drip" of bad news from late 2007. This still troubles investors as they flock to precious metals. Meanwhile back to conventional markets things were rather slow unless you were one of the gang of 500 scam artists preparing for perp-walks. Light volume must have set a record for a typical Monday in December. Breadth was positive to flat.’

China Is `Scared’ of U.S. Monetary Policy, Rogoff, Rickards Say Bloomberg | Policy makers in China, which holds $883.5 billion in U.S. Treasuries, are concerned the nation with the world’s biggest economy is debasing its currency, according to Kenneth S. Rogoff and James Rickards.

Jobless Recovery?: 25 Unemployment Statistics That Are Almost Too Depressing To Read Guess what? Unemployment is up again! That’s right – even though Wall Street is swimming in cash and the Obama administration is declaring that “the recession is over”, the U.S. unemployment rate has gone even higher. So are you enjoying the jobless recovery? Economic Collapse Blog Dec 4, 2010 ‘Guess what? Unemployment is up again! That’s right – even though Wall Street is swimming in cash and the Obama administration is declaring that “the recession is over”, the U.S. unemployment rate has gone even higher. So are you enjoying the jobless recovery? The truth is that there should not be any talk of a “recovery” as long as the “official” unemployment rate remains at around 10 percent and the “real” unemployment continues to hover around 17 percent. There are millions and millions of American families that are living every day in deep pain because of the lack of jobs. Meanwhile, there are all of these economic pundits that are declaring that we are just going to have to realize that chronic unemployment is the “new normal” and that if other nations can handle high rates of unemployment then so can we. The most optimistic economists are projecting that we can perhaps get the unemployment rate down to around 8 percent by 2012. On the other hand, there are many economists that are convinced that things are going to get even worse.If you have never been unemployed, it can be hard to describe how soul-crushing it can be. As the bills pile up and the financial obligations mount, the pressure can be debilitating. Being unemployed for an extended period of time can easily plunge you into depression and grind your self-worth away to almost nothing. After getting rejected dozens of times (or even hundreds of times), many Americans simply give up. There are countless marriages and countless families that are being ripped to shreds by financial pressure even as you read this. When the money is gone and there is no job in sight it can be a really, really empty feeling.Of course there is a whole lot more to life than money, but it can be difficult to tell that to someone who can barely sleep at night because of the intense pressure to find a job.The vast majority of Americans have at least one family member or close friend that is looking for work right now. Times are really, really tough and unfortunately the long-term outlook is very bleak. We should have compassion on those who are out of work right now, because soon many of us may join them.