Business / Economic / Financial
[ This link to a somewhat more cumulative blog posts page will precede current days news since most all topics remain current in terms of impact and longer-term effect and can be searched by topical index term more easily. The same is provided since the blog site http://alpeiablog.blogspot.com has just been censored as to size by google which is typical for google as nsa / cia / gov’t shill as more are becoming aware of. The same is true for microsoft, another co. that’s seen their best days and relies on the government to maintain their monopoly. Up to now the better page http://www.scribd.com/alpeia is provided for ease of formatting and clarity thereby while the Washington Post page is the real deal but without formatting http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/community/mypost/index.html?plckPersonaPage=PersonaComments&plckUserId=alpeia&newspaperUserId=alpeia ]
We’re Already In Recession [actually a depression] Harding ‘‘First let’s look at the trend. After an unusual four straight quarters of negative growth in the severe 2008-2009 recession, the recession ended in the September quarter of last year when GDP managed fragile growth of 1.6% for the quarter, and then improved to 5.0% growth in the December quarter.It was understood that much of that growth was temporary, fueled by government spending, and spending by consumers provided with government bonuses and rebates, as well as temporary rebuilding of inventories by businesses. But it was expected that with that jumpstart the recovery could continue on its own legs.So, it was a bit of a surprise when GDP growth slowed to 3.7% in the March quarter of this year while those programs were still having an influence. But economists still expected the economy would grow at a 3% pace in the June quarter even with those programs winding down, and for the rest of the year.So, it was a real disappointment when second quarter growth was reported a month ago as having been only 2.4%. Plus, when additional data became available for May and June, the last two months of the second quarter, and those reports were increasingly negative, economists predicted that Q2 GDP growth would be revised down to only 1.3%.On Friday, the revision was released, and it showed growth last quarter slowed significantly, but only to 1.6%, not as bad as the latest forecast.The media and the stock market, starving for good news–and with the market short-term oversold after being down 10 of the previous 13 days–took it as a positive. But let’s get real.The issue is not whether economists got their forecast right or wrong, but the degree to which economic growth is slowing. And a trend of 5% growth in the December quarter, followed by a 1.3% decline to 3.7% growth in the March quarter, followed by a 2.1% decline to 1.6% growth in the March quarter is a chilling rate of decline.Now factor in that economic reports so far for July and August, the first two months of the third quarter, have been significantly worse than those of May and June, and significantly worse than economists’ forecasts, with the relapse pretty much across the board; in the housing industry, manufacturing, retail sales, consumer and business confidence, the decline in U.S. exports, and so on.It’s not a stretch then to think that economic growth is declining by another increment of more than 1.6% this quarter, which would have it in negative territory, already in recession.In his speech Friday morning at the annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Fed Chairman Bernanke, while saying he still expects the economy to grow in the second half “albeit at a relatively modest pace” did not put forth a very convincing argument, using such phrases as “painfully slow recovery in the labor market”. . . “economic projections are inherently uncertain”. . . . “the economy is vulnerable to unexpected developments” . . . “the recovery is less vigorous than we expected.”Nor did he seem confident that the Fed’s depleted arsenal of tools to re-stimulate the economy would be effective if needed. Two of the four possible actions he mentioned seemed to suggest consumers and markets could be fooled into confidence with mere talk.His brief list of four possible actions were, “1) conducting additional purchases of longer-term securities [bonds and mortgage-related securities]; 2) modifying the Fed’s FOMC meeting communications to investors; 3) reducing the interest the Fed pays banks on their excess reserves. And I will also comment of a fourth strategy, proposed by several economists- namely, that the Fed increase its inflation goals.”Providing details on two of the four possible actions, he said, “The Fed’s current statement after its FOMC meetings reflects the FOMC’s anticipation that exceptionally low interest rates will be warranted ‘for an extended period’ . . . A step the Committee could consider if conditions called for it, would be to modify the language to communicate to investors that it anticipates keeping the target for the federal funds rate low for a longer period of time.”As for the fourth possible action in his list of four, he said the Fed could alter the phrases it uses to communicate its goals for inflation by “increasing its medium-term inflation goals above levels consistent with price stability.”That’s scary stuff if those are two of the four actions the Fed sees as its best options to re-stimulate the economy.Also of concern, in its report revising Q2 GDP growth down to just 1.6%, the Commerce Department reported that corporate earnings declined significantly in the second quarter, after-tax earnings rising just 0.1%, compared to the gain of 11.4% in the first quarter. Meanwhile, Wall Street continues to ratchet up its earnings estimates.On the positive side, consumer spending, which accounts for 70% of the economy, rose 2% in the second quarter, compared to 1.9% in the first quarter. But the bad news is that the reports since, on consumer confidence and retail sales in July and August, have been big disappointments.Putting it all together, don’t be surprised if a couple of months down the road we learn the economy was already in recession in the current quarter.’
Cramer Gets It Wrong With “Mass Panic” GDP Forecast [To the contrary, among the few times cramer got it right … I mean, come on … you don’t think that initial number and now this better than all forecasts is correct … one couldn’t be that dumb. ] Paul Joseph Watson | CNBC host predicts gross domestic product to shrink to an alarming 0.5 per cent.
Previously reported economic growth, upon which hundreds of rally ‘points’ were predicated, revised down by 50% of the actual 1.6%. This is typical but no small laughing matter which bespeaks the wayward ways of wall street that got us to this debacle which also includes defacto bankruptcy of the nation. So, GDP down, consumer confidence down, and stocks rally like no tomorrow (which is the fraudulent wall street time horizon … they’ll just commission on the way down). Am I missing something here, particularly when a more sobering view from a rational player, INTEL, is far more credible. One former fed chair likened no-recession-helicopter ben bernanke’s factually deficient, empty words to ‘a doctor telling a patient he’s not sure of what the problem is (that economic uncertainty thing he referenced), but if his leg gets worse he can always amputate.’ Previously, as pertains to the jackson hole no-recession-helicopter-ben b*** s*** non-event / talk. Fed action signals new activism (Washington Post) [ Riiiiight! The activist fed! That’s all we need. As if we needed more of what brought us to this point! Certainly the fed’s role in the continuing and current financial crisis / debacle cannot be ignored or disputed. Nothing like a hegelian methodology to create the very problems for which they are called upon to offer solutions, increasing their sense of importance, and concentrating power thereby. (Think about it. It is really rather quite absurd that each meeting time the financial markets hold their bated breath for these incompetent boobs). Then there’s the cover-up with an opportunity for enrichment of some, usually the tight-lipped yes-men then ever after and forever bonded in what becomes tantamount to an almost fraternal link by ‘virtue’ of the crime thereby. No, I’m not saying their initial missteps were necessarily badly intended, but the manipulations thereafter to obfuscate their incompetence (senile greenspun, no-recession-helicopter-ben, etc.) comes at a great price and is nothing less than tantamount to or just outright crime. I’d abolish the fed without hesitation or compunction. After all, at this point of decline and defacto bankruptcy of the nation you certainly can’t point to success nor argue their indispensability. Then there’s also the missing trillions, over-printing of fiat currency, and all that sub rosa activity with the worthless fraudulent toxic paper which I believe is being supplanted with ultimately hard currency to the great benefit of the frauds and great detriment to the nation.]
China is Unloading its Treasury Bonds Oil Price | It looks like the smart money these days is found in China.
Collapse Survival Will Be Tribal: Begin Recruiting Now Human World Order | The controllers are orchestrating the collapse of the American economy and society right now, albeit in slow motion, but it is already crumbling.
10 Leading Retailers Close Stores Mish’s Global Economic Trend Analysis | Signs of weak consumer discretionary spending are popping up in multiple places.
U.S. Postal Service Starts Quoting SDR to Dollar Conversion Rates, and IMF Endorses Replacing Dollars with SDRs I have repeatedly pointed out that it is possible that the IMF’s special drawing rights (SDRs) will become the world’s reserve currency. And as I noted in April 2009, there is some possibility that the “Bancor” will ultimately fill that role.
Why Are Home Sales Plummeting? On the surface, it is because the government’s tax-credit for first-time home buyers lapsed in April. It takes a couple of months lag-time between buyer purchase decisions and the actual close of escrow, and so the expiration of the tax-credit is just now hammering the market.
Bearish Sentiment Officially Reaching Fever Pitch Friday promises to be a huge day (at least in the early going) with both the Fed and the Q2 GDP revisions potentially giving investors more reasons to panic. The questions: is panic hitting peak levels?
U.S. Stock Market T. Rowe Price: Week Ended August 27, 2010 Stock prices declined overall for the week, although small-caps managed a modest gain. Markets declined to multi-week lows on Tuesday when the National Association of Realtors reported that existing home sales had declined 27% in July. The steeper-than-expected drop raised fears that a "double dip" in the housing sector—now that homebuyer tax incentives have ended—might drag the broader economy back into recession as well. Investors also responded to sharp drops in overseas markets brought about by a rise in the yen, which promised to further weaken the export-driven Japanese economy, as well as a downgrade in Ireland's sovereign credit rating. The bad news on the housing sector was buttressed Wednesday when the government announced that new home construction had fallen to its lowest level on record in July. The government also reported that durable goods orders had declined 3.8% during the month once the volatile transportation category was removed. Better economic news arrived Thursday when the Labor Department reported a sharp drop in weekly jobless claims. Investors continued to drive stock prices lower, however, perhaps in response to a report showing a decline in manufacturing activity in the Kansas City region. Markets regained some momentum on Friday when Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke announced in a speech that the central bank "will do all that it can" to ensure the economic recovery continues. Sentiment may have also gotten a boost from the Commerce Department's revised estimate of economic growth in the second quarter. While the estimate was revised lower, from an annualized growth rate of 2.4% to 1.6%, the decline was not as great as some had feared.
| U.S. Stocks1 | |||
| Index2 | Friday's Close | Week's Change | % Change |
| DJIA | 10150.65 | -62.97 | -2.66% |
| S&P 500 | 1064.59 | -7.10 | -4.53% |
| NASDAQ Composite | 2153.63 | -26.13 | -5.09% |
| S&P MidCap 400 | 734.30 | -2.22 | 1.05% |
| Russell 2000 | 617.08 | 6.41 | -2.68% |
Drudgereport: Analyst: CITIGROUP 'Cooking the Books'...
Banks back switch to renminbi for trade; Incentives to move from dollar and euro...
THE SPEECH: Bernanke under pressure to prop it up...
'RECOVERY SUMMER' ENDS SICK
GDP REVISION: 1.6%
Says recovery softer, Fed prepared to buy more...
Weaker GDP raises stakes...
WIRE: What Biden didn't mention on stimulus...
ZUCKERMAN: The Most Fiscally Irresponsible Government in History … along with bushes’...
Joint Chiefs Chairman: National Debt is a Security Threat...
Recession pushes US birth rate to new low...
RECOVERY BUMMER: Youth employment lowest since 1948...
Thousands line up before dawn for mortgage help in Palm Beach County...
(8-27-10) Dow 10,151 +165 Nasdaq 2,153 +35 S&P 500 1,065 +17 [CLOSE- OIL $75.19 (-54% for year 2008) (RECORD TRADING HIGH $147.27) GAS $2.74 (reg. gas in LAND OF FRUITS AND NUTS $3.11 REG./ $3.26 MID-GRADE/ $3.35 PREM./ $3.69 DIESEL) / GOLD $1,242 (+24% for year 2009) / SILVER $19.06 (+47% for year 2009) PLATINUM $1,545 (+56% for year 2009) / DOLLAR= .78 EURO, 85 YEN, .64 POUND STERLING, ETC. (How low can you go - LOWER)/ 10 YR NOTE YIELD 2.65% …..… AP Business Highlights ...Yahoo Market Update... T. Rowe Price Weekly Recap – Stocks / Bonds / Currencies - Domestic / International This Is a Secular Bear Market and The End of Buy and Hold … and Hope MARKET MANIPULATION AND HOW THE LATEST BUBBLE-FRAUD PRE-COMING CRASH IS BEING ACCOMPLISHED 3-11-10 6 Theories On Why the Stock Market Has Rallied 3-9-10 [archived website file] Risks Lurk for ETF Investors The bull market that never was/were beyond wall street b.s. when measured in gold Property Values Projected to Fall 12% in 2010 Jan 31, 2010 The Week Ahead: Risk Is Off the Cliff; Unwind Has Begun Jan 31, 2010 01-13-10 Forecast for 2010 from Seeking Alpha Contributor THE COMING MARKET CRASH / CORRECTION 1-28-10 Maierhofer (01-15-10) 11 Clear Signs Economy Sinking Economic Black Hole 1-22-10: 20 Reasons Why The U.S. Economy Is Dying And Is Simply Not Going To Recover Current Economic / Fiscal Charts Trendsresearch.com forecast for 2009 1-7-10 Crash is coming! ‘WORST ECONOMIC COLLAPSE EVER’ Must Read Economic / Financial Data This Depression is just beginning The coming depression… thecomingdepression.net MUST READ: JEREMY GRANTHAM’S QUARTERLY UPDATE 25 January 2010 (850 on the S&P) by TPC The Next Wave of Collapse is Coming Sooner than you think Sliding Back Into the Great Depression ABSOLUTELY, ABSURDLY, RIDICULOUS! SELL / TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME!
Report on Fannie, Freddie gives new theory for collapse (Washington Post) Since ‘it’s always something’, time to contact Rosanne Rosanna Danna to straighten this out! Tiny tim geithner, God bless us everyone, ‘has also pointed to the weight of souring guaranteed loans as a source for the companies' troubles. …Riiiiight! Guarantee’s are the thing! … Rosanne Rosanna Danna, formerly of SNL fame needs to chime in with what her mama always used to say, ‘ It’s always something ‘ . Of course, it matters little to the frauds and what their frauds are on wall street what the something is said to be since the reality is … ‘This is a global depression. This is a secular bear market in a global depression. This was a manipulated bull (s***) cycle in a secular bear market. This has been a typically manipulated bubble as has preceded the prior crashes with great regularity that the wall street frauds and insiders commission and sell into. This is a typical wall street churn and earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud as in prior crashes.’
Flow of imports drags down economic growth (Washington Post) [Ah, eureka! So that’s what did it! Nothing to do with transferring productive capability overseas / elsewhere as warned against by Ross Perot and celebrated by those long-term thinking frauds on wall street. Well, we still have the worthless paper to move around and commission as warned against by Morita of Sony fame.]
Chossudovsky: China could already be world’s largest economy
Stocks slip as caution about the economy returns (Washington Post) [Caution? Is that what they’re calling reality these days? ] Stocks fell Thursday after early gains from a better report on jobless claims faded in late trading, sending the Dow Jones industrial average to its first close below 10,000 since early July.
Is the U.S. Bankrupt? [YES!] (at Motley Fool) The Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts recently reported that bankruptcy filings between April and June hit a four-year high. Consumer bankruptcies rose 21 percent while business bankruptcies increased eight percent. The list of corporate bankruptcies over the last couple of years includes big names like Lehman Brothers, Washington Mutual, and GM. And financial institutions like Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), Citigroup (NYSE: C), Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) received billions of dollars through the federal government's Troubled Asset Relief Program. Should investors add the U.S. government to that list of big name bankruptcies? I recently asked Boston University economics professor Lawrence Kotlikoff, author of Jimmy Stewart is Dead: Ending the World's Ongoing Financial Plague with Limited Purpose Banking.
Mac Greer: Larry, I noticed the headline or the title of a recent article that you wrote, US is Bankrupt and We Don't Even Know It. So with that in mind, what is your take on the economy these days?
Larry Kotlikoff: Well there is a lot of uncertainty, as rightfully there should be. We have seen the financial sector implode basically because of the systematic production and sale of trillions of dollars of fraudulent securities under the cover of proprietary information, so nobody really had the ability to look inside big companies like Bear Sterns or Merrill Lynch to see exactly what they owned or owed. That problem remains today, even with the passage of Dodd-Frank. There is no requirement that the financial industry come clean with respect to what it is doing with our money, so every major financial player says you can't see what we are doing because we have the Midas touch. We are going to beat the market, and if we show you, everybody will see our secret formula for making you a mint. As a result, they have a great cover to produce fraudulent securities. And then when there is a sniff of fraud, one can easily presume that everything they are doing is fraudulent, which may not at all be the case. And then there is a run against those institutions as we saw with Bear Sterns and Lehman Brothers and all the other ones because of the perception that so much of their holdings were fraudulent and that their reporting was fraudulent. And of course the rating companies and the regulators and the boards of directors and the members of Congress were all, in effect, in bed with each other to achieve this result. I don't see anything that has fundamentally changed, so that is one major area of fragility. We could have another meltdown in the financial market tomorrow because as Dick Fuld [Lehman former CEO] said, he claims that their balance sheet was just fine and that this was all just a panic, it was not connected with any facts. Well, he said that every institution on Wall Street --- Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), JP Morgan (NYSE: JPM) -- could have experienced the same thing. His concern about this happening to other companies is well taken. So we have a financial system that is set up to fail again, and we have a fiscal situation which is a complete and dire mess. It could lead to a financial panic that could lead to a much bigger meltdown of the financial system than we have seen.
Greer: Is the U.S. bankrupt?
Kotlikoff: Bankruptcy means not being able to pay your future bills. If you can't pay your current bills, your creditors are already after you so you already are bankrupt. If you can't pay your future bills, that really is the operational definition of going bankrupt or being bankrupt. The U.S. government can't pay its future bills. These bills, in total, in present value, exceed the revenues by $202 trillion. This is based on taking the data projected by CBO (Congressional Budget Office) back on June 26 of this year, when they put out their alternative fiscal scenario, which is their best long-term projection of government spending, including servicing the official debt, and government revenues. And if you present value the differential between spending and revenues, including extrapolating beyond their projection which is important to do, you get a fiscal gap of $202 trillion. To come up with $202 trillion in present value, you'd have to immediately and permanently double all taxes we have. You'd have to do it immediately. We're talking here about running a 5% GDP surplus this year instead of running a 9% deficit. So I don't see that happening. We have to cut spending or we have to print money. Either way you're cutting spending so either way you're, in effect, reining in spending promises. And that suits my definition of bankruptcy. And I think there are ways of cutting spending and getting our fiscal house in order but we need to engage in radical surgery here and not putting on the band-aid that this administration is so fond of.
Greer: One of our Motley Fool writers recently interviewed Euro Pacific Capital President Peter Schiff. In 2006, he was predicting the economic downturn, and he now says that we are, "In the early stages of a depression now. It is going to be a horrific experience for average Americans who are going to watch their standard of living plunge." Do you agree?
Kotlikoff: Well, this has been a depression so far for millions of Americans. It didn't have to happen. It is really man-made. We have the same physical capital and human capital sitting here in place. We don't have to stay in a depressed state. The problem is that things are not coordinated. We don't have buyers optimistic about getting paid salaries and we don't have sellers optimistic about being able to find buyers, so everybody is kind of sitting on their hands. We can have some, a bunch of KISS's, which are "keep it simple, stupid" solutions to our problems, and lots of people throughout the country realize this, that we need to fix things fundamentally. We can't do it with 2,000 page bills that make bureaucratic structures that are basically clogging up our economic arteries, even more bureaucratic…
10 Practical Steps That You Can Take To Insulate Yourself (At Least Somewhat) From The Coming Economic Collapse The Economic Collapse | Most Americans are still operating under the delusion that this “recession” will end and that the “good times” will return soon.
America’s Debt: The BIG Wave Damien Hoffman | This, my friends, is only the tip of the iceberg of what will unfold should we choose to kick the proverbial can farther down the road.
S&P Says US Should Act to Protect AAA-Rating: Report The United States government needs to take steps to preserve its top AAA-rating, a Standard & Poor’s Ratings (S&P) official told Dow Jones newswire in an interview published on Thursday.
It pays to riot in Europe Dublin has played by the book. It has taken pre-emptive steps to please the markets and the EU. It has done an IMF job without the IMF. Indeed, is has gone further than the IMF would have dared to go.
The Economy When Debt Is Everywhere As a result of austerity, imposed on Greece by its Illuminist led government, unemployment has hit 70% in some places. The country’s budget deficit has been reduced by 40%, truly draconian. Spending by government has been cut 10%, which is more than double what the EU and IMF has required.
10 Practical Steps That You Can Take To Insulate Yourself (At Least Somewhat) From The Coming Economic Collapse Most Americans are still operating under the delusion that this “recession” will end and that the “good times” will return soon, but a growing minority of Americans are starting to realize that things are fundamentally changing and that they better start preparing for what is ahead.
China Buys Euros as Fear of World Depression Grows Webster G. Tarpley | The one certainty is that there is no recovery, and that the second wave of a world economic depression dominates the world.
Economy Caught in Depression, Not Recession: Rosenberg Positive gross domestic product readings and other mildly hopeful signs are masking an ugly truth: The US economy is in a 1930s-style Depression, Gluskin Sheff economist David Rosenberg said Tuesday. ‘Positive gross domestic product readings and other mildly hopeful signs are masking an ugly truth: The US economy is in a 1930s-style Depression, Gluskin Sheff economist David Rosenberg said Tuesday. Writing in his daily briefing to investors, Rosenberg said the Great Depression also had its high points, with a series of positive GDP reports and sharp stock market gains. But then as now, those signs of recovery were unsustainable and only provided a false sense of stability, said Rosenberg. Rosenberg calls current economic conditions “a depression, and not just some garden-variety recession,” and notes that any good news both during the initial 1929-33 recession and the one that began in 2008 triggered “euphoric response.”
Op-Ed Columnist - The Third Depression - NYTimes.com Economic Policy: Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman says the US is in the "early stages of a third Great Depression. The Third Depression By PAUL KRUGMAN Published: June 27, 2010 ‘Recessions are common; depressions are rare. As far as I can tell, there were only two eras in economic history that were widely described as “depressions” at the time: the years of deflation and instability that followed the Panic of 1873 and the years of mass unemployment that followed the financial crisis of 1929-31. Neither the Long Depression of the 19th century nor the Great Depression of the 20th was an era of nonstop decline — on the contrary, both included periods when the economy grew. But these episodes of improvement were never enough to undo the damage from the initial slump, and were followed by relapses. We are now, I fear, in the early stages of a third depression. It will probably look more like the Long Depression than the much more severe Great Depression. But the cost — to the world economy and, above all, to the millions of lives blighted by the absence of jobs — will nonetheless be immense. And this third depression will be primarily a failure of policy. Around the world — most recently at last weekend’s deeply discouraging G-20 meeting — governments are obsessing about inflation when the real threat is deflation, preaching the need for belt-tightening when the real problem is inadequate spending. In 2008 and 2009, it seemed as if we might have learned from history. Unlike their predecessors, who raised interest rates in the face of financial crisis, the current leaders of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank slashed rates and moved to support credit markets. Unlike governments of the past, which tried to balance budgets in the face of a plunging economy, today’s governments allowed deficits to rise. And better policies helped the world avoid complete collapse: the recession brought on by the financial crisis arguably ended last summer. But future historians will tell us that this wasn’t the end of the third depression, just as the business upturn that began in 1933 wasn’t the end of the Great Depression. After all, unemployment — especially long-term unemployment — remains at levels that would have been considered catastrophic not long ago, and shows no sign of coming down rapidly. And both the United States and Europe are well on their way toward Japan-style deflationary traps …’
Worse than expected news on both durables and new home sales. Indeed, in this and the prior session the ‘new homeseller stocks’ rose based on the foisted false expectation of expected-to-better as opposed to, among other, far worse than expected results. Yet, where / when was the worse than expected news discounted. The fact is that it wasn’t, as fraudulent wall street with one of those typical press the button, computerized program trade days, rallies to try to suck the suckers back in to keep their ‘churn and earn’ rollin’. Note the typical, almost tauntingly gleeful mainstream non-news headline, ‘US stocks pull off a gain; Dow ends above 10,000 (at CNBC)’ … Riiiiight! … They pulled it off … How pathetic! Democrats move to shore up faltering economic recovery (Washington Post) [ Wow! And all this time that’s what we thought they were doing. Now they’re gonna’ get serious … riiiiight. Here’s some serious for you: Peter Schiff: “We’re in the Early Stages of a Depression” The Motley Fool | Four years and the worst recession since the Great Depression later, Schiff … : an inflationary depression.) among other economists, (Economists Herald New Great Depression The world is currently experiencing the modern day equivalent of the Great Depression, according to a prominent economist who has added his voice to scores of others now forecasting ongoing economic doom on a scale not seen since the 1930s.) , and my position and that of demographer Dent (This is a global depression. This is a secular bear market in a global depression. The past up move was a manipulated bull (s***) cycle in a secular bear market. This has been a typically manipulated bubble as has preceded the prior crashes with great regularity that the wall street frauds and insiders commission and sell into. This is a typical wall street churn and earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud as in prior crashes’. This national decline, economic and otherwise, will not end until justice is served and the wall street frauds et als are criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed.]
Harry Dent, Jr. Economy will be in a Depression by 2011
The worst of this next depression is likely to hit between mid-2010 and mid-2013, especially around early 2011, but if the banking system continues to implode a deep downturn or depression could begin sometime in 2009 instead of 2010.
Dow will Fall to 3,800 – 4,500 by 2012
Nasdaq will Fall Below 1,100, its 2002 low, by late 2010 or mid-2012 at the latest.
Inflation will Increase until mid- 2010 and then turn to Deflation
Interest Rates will Increase
U.S. Dollar will Decline
Housing will Decline by 40 – 60% from Today’s Levels
Greatest Economic and Banking Crisis since the 1930s will Occur Between 2010 and 2012 ).
INSIDER TRANSACTIONS (Washington Post) Stock market ends down for second straight week (Washington Post) [Yeah! There should be no surprise here. Such is the scenario that bear markets are made of and Maierhofer shows the math to prove it (infra), Are You Ready For How Bad It Will Get? Graham Summers | ‘There are numerous components in the latest GDP number that are extremely suspect. The vast majority of investors are going to be taken to the cleaners … Sell / Take Profits while you still can! ]
Drudgereport: MORGAN STANLEY: Government Bond Defaults Inevitable...
Roubini: Growth to Be 'Well Below' 1% ...
New Home Sales Sink to Lowest Pace on Record...
Banks back switch to renminbi for trade; Incentives to move from dollar and euro...
DEM JOKES: PELOSI COULD DIE BEFORE NEXT YEAR
Former Republican chairman: I'm gay...
President Bush 'incredibly supportive in his cornholin’ efforts'...
Bernanke under pressure to prop it up [yeah … with the typical b*** s***]!
Jackson Hole: Speech, Speech...
Infowars.com Poll: Fed Will Push Nation Into Greatest Depression Kurt Nimmo | Infowars.com readers believe the monetary policies of the Federal Reserve will push the country into another depression.
Even Tony Robbins Is Warning That An Economic Collapse Is Coming It seems like almost everyone is warning of a coming economic collapse these days.
Why to Expect a Bipolar Market Move Next Week [Well, I don’t know about a diagnosis of bipolar, but ‘criminally insane’; yes, that’s wall street in a nutshell.]
Bond Bubble, Dollar Doom - Embrace The Fear Says Fisher [ Riiiiight! Sounds like a plan … to bail out the frauds on wall street as they sell their ‘hot potatoes’ in their typical ‘musical chair’ pre-crash charade! ] ‘… Hussman: Dollar Collapse Coming: In his latest market commentary, top fund manager John Hussman continues to express a bearish view, and says that more quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve is likely to trigger “an abrupt collapse in the foreign exchange value of the U.S. dollar”. Hussman offers something of a primer on exchange rates, and concludes by saying this: “The policy of quantitative easing is likely to force a large adjustment on the U.S. dollar because the Federal Reserve is choosing to lay a heavier hand on the Treasury bond market than would result from economic conditions alone,” he says. “The resulting shift in interest rates and long-term inflation prospects combine to dramatically reduce the attractiveness of the U.S. dollar. A significant and relatively abrupt devaluation is then required, in an amount sufficient to set up expectations of a U.S. dollar appreciation over time.” Special Offer: People mocked Gary Shilling when he said SELL in 2006 and 2007. But he was right and his subscribers are richer for it. Click here for Gary Shilling’s current investment advice. As for the market, Hussman says he continues to see unfavorable valuations, unfavorable market action, and unfavorable economic pressures. The Fed’s new go at quantitative easing may well limit deflationary fears, he says, which has led him to increase exposure to precious metals and foreign currencies. Hussman also says the U.S. should focus on restructuring debt, and offers his take on how it should do so …’
Dow Reclaims 10,000 as Stocks Pare Losses CNBC | Stocks opened lower for a fifth straight day Wednesday as disappointing reports on new home sales and durable-goods orders stoked worries about the economic recovery.
Consumers Dropping Pay TV Services Investors.com | The number of subscribers to cable, satellite and telecom TV services in the U.S. fell for the first time ever in the second quarter.
Plunge in Home Sales Stokes Economy Fears Wall Street Journal | U.S. home sales plummeted in July to a level not seen in more than a decade, spurring fears of renewed weakness in housing prices and the broader economy.
Boehner calls for mass firing of Obama's economic team (Washington Post) Yeah! True enough. They should be fired (watch for fake data as a desperate reaction to the reality the fake data’s been hidin’, revisions to fake data which hid reality, etc., ‘cause they’re really desperate); yet where were the same calls for paulsen, bush, et als. The truth is, they all should be fired! Every last fraudulent one of them! All three corrupt branches of the u.s. non-government.
Frank to hold hearing on regulation of Wall St. pay (Washington Post) [ Oooooh! Riiiiight! More hearings … sounds like a plan! You know, max face time, no action, great politics as usual. After all, if they were really serious, prosecutions, jail, fines, and disgorgement for the perps would have happened. Additionally, the so-called fin regs were powder puffs after all the huff and puff and ignore prosecution under already existing laws. What total fraud / b*** s***! ]
U.S. Financial System Still "Fundamentally Corrupt," Kotlikoff Says: Here's How to Fix It ‘We have a "fundamentally corrupt financial system" and the Dodd-Frank reform bill did nothing to change it, says Boston University economics professor Laurence Kotlikoff. "Relatively little has changed except there are going to be more federal regulators who are probably going to miss major problems." At the core of the 2008 crisis was "the production and sale of trillions of fundamentally fraudulent securities," Kotlikoff says, suggesting all levels of society participated in the fraud -- including homeowners. At the center of it all were financial intermediaries (a.k.a. Wall Street) who packaged and sold "snake oil under the guise of proprietary information" to limit or eliminate disclosure, and enabled by corrupt rating agencies, regulators and elected officials, he says. In the accompanying video, Kotlikoff explains how we can "make Wall Street safe for Main Street." In short, we should transform all financial companies with limited liability (banks, hedge funds, private equity firms and insurance companies alike) into mutual funds, which the professor describes as "little banks that have 100% capital requirements. " Notably, the big mutual fund companies survived the "financial earthquake" of 2008-09 when the rest of the financial system collapsed, Kotlikoff recalls. In late 2009, Kotlikoff and Harvard's Niall Ferguson penned an op-ed for The FT describing a blueprint for how to take moral hazard out of banking. Citing a speech by Bank of England governor Mervyn King, Kotlikoff and Ferguson called for "limited purpose banking" (LPB), that would "limit banks to their legitimate purpose - financial intermediation and payment facilitation." Nine months later, Kotlikoff remains convinced this "very simple reform" remains a much better alternative than the financial reform bill hammered out in Washington - with plenty of influence from Wall Street lobbyists. "We are rebuilding [the system] out of straw rather than out of brick," Kotlikoff says, suggesting his "LPB" proposal will ultimately be good for the economy and provide a model for the rest of the world. "If we have a safe, sound [financial] structure other countries will follow suit," he says.’
How to Get Through This Mess ‘… U.S. RECESSION NEVER ENDED; GDP TO CONTRACT IN Q3
Hardship 401(k) withdrawals set record in second quarter: More workers also borrowing from their accounts (Washington Post, August 22, 2010) [ Clearly an instance where ‘better late than never’ doesn’t quite do it … ‘better now than late or never’ is a bit better as the following see that old tune, ‘ The Big Hurt’, reaching once again number 1 on the billboard charts. ]
Soros Bailing Out of U.S. Stock Market Robert Wenzel | Billionaire trader and political manipulator,George Soros, is clearly not optimistic.
Celente: Stock Market Crash Before End of 2010 Gerald Celente believes that the stock market will crash before the end of 2010 , gold will soar.
Are You Ready For How Bad It Will Get? Graham Summers | ‘There are numerous components in the latest GDP number that are extremely suspect. The vast majority of investors are going to be taken to the cleaners … Sell / Take Profits while you still can!
100-Year Bonds --- Sign of Trouble?
Analyst: Dow To 5,000, Lost Decade For Stocks The Dow Jones Industrial Average will lose about half of its value over the next couple of years as it follows a Nikkei-like pattern of several sharp rallies in an overall decline, according to Charles Nenner, founder and president of Charles Nenner research.
Existing home sales plunge 27% Existing home sales fell sharply in July, declining for a third straight month, as the effects of the expired homebuyer tax credit continued to add turbulence to the housing market.
Hindenburg Omen Creator Has Exited The Market As we reported first, last week saw the second confirmation of the Hindenburg Omen, most recently sighted for the first time on August 12. Presumably this is an indication of putting one’s money where one’s mouth is (and away from the market).
We’re Underperforming The Great Depression In real (inflation/deflation-adjusted) terms, when did the US market permanently regain the high reached in 1929? The first chart illustrates two answers to the question. One uses the real price and the other uses the real total return.
Top Republicans urge Obama to oust economic team Reuters | The top Republican in the U.S. House of Representatives called on Tuesday for President Barack Obama to fire his economic team in a campaign-style speech meant to focus voters on the weak American economy.
Home Sales Plunge to Record Low NY Times | Sales of existing homes plunged 27.2 percent in July, down to their lowest level since the National Association of Realtors began keeping track over a decade ago.
Unemployed group blasts Geithner’s handling of economy The Hill | UCubed, a group representing unemployed and underemployed workers, sharply criticized Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner for his handling of the economy.
Stocks Plunge, Double Dip Recession Fears Grow After Home Sales Report U.S. stocks extended losses, sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average below 10,000, and the 10-year Treasury yield fell below 2.5 percent for the first time since 2009 as a bigger-than-estimated slump in existing home sales fueled concern the economy may relapse into recession.
Infowars.com Poll: Fed Will Push Nation Into Greatest Depression Kurt Nimmo | Infowars.com readers believe the monetary policies of the Federal Reserve will push the country into another depression.
Even Tony Robbins Is Warning That An Economic Collapse Is Coming It seems like almost everyone is warning of a coming economic collapse these days.
Alex Jones Exposes Google’s Plan to Dominate the Internet Infowars.com | Google’s takeover agenda will control the world wide web and force independent media websites, radio and TV shows out of existence for good.
Ron Paul: Let the Housing Market Normalize! Dr. Ron Paul | There seems to be a growing consensus in favor of abolishing Fannie and Freddie. This is the good news.
Americans Using Their Rainy Day Savings to Live Rebel Traders | The reality of the ‘real economy’, as measured by people, not Wall Street, is a deteriorating economy where any source of funds is fair game to be tapped into.
The Never Ending Recession Mr. Rosenberg believes we could see a negative GDP print THIS quarter. And if he’s right that means analysts are far too optimistic about the upcoming quarter.
Economic forecaster: ‘Greatest Depression’ coming Collapse of middle class means there’s no fuel for recovery, Gerald Celente argues.
National / World:
JFK Assassination Cover-Up Blown Sky High It is a story the corporate media, with the notable exception of one lone Fox News affiliate, refuses to report. A former FBI agent, Don Adams, has compelling evidence Lee Harvey Oswald did not assassinate president John F. Kennedy.
Massive solar storm to hit Earth in 2012 with ‘force of 100m bombs’ Astronomers are predicting that a massive solar storm, much bigger in potential than the one that caused spectacular light shows on Earth earlier this month, is to strike our planet in 2012 with a force of 100 million hydrogen bombs.
Conclusive: Global Distribution of Rockefeller-Funded Anti-Fertility Vaccine Coordinated by WHO Jurriaan Maessen | It is a dream long cherished by the global elite: an anti-fertilization program with the aim of reducing the world’s population
Republican Tea Party Organization Reports Death Threats Kurt Nimmo | FreedomWorks is the establishment’s answer to the Libertarian Tea Party movement.
Saudi couple hammer 24 hot nails into their maid after she complained of heavy workload [Saudi Arabia is total b*** s***. Time for displacement of the saudi mob family, and establishment of a meaningful nation-state! They are an embarrassment to Muslims everywhere!] A Saudi couple tortured their Sri Lankan maid by hammering 24 hot nails into her after she complained of her heavy workload. Mrs Ariyawathi told a local newspaper that her employers tortured her with the nails as punishment.
Senate To Sneak Through Internet Kill Switch Bill The Senate is attempting to sneak through the infamous Internet kill switch cybersecurity bill by attaching it to another piece of legislation that is almost guaranteed to pass – the defense authorization bill – in an underhanded ploy to avoid the difficult task of passing cybersecurity on its own.
Key Karzai Aide in Corruption Inquiry Is Linked to C.I.A. The aide to President Hamid Karzai of Afghanistan at the center of a politically sensitive corruption investigation is being paid by the Central Intelligence Agency, according to Afghan and American officials.
WikiLeaks Release: CIA Red Cell Special Memorandum – What If Foreigners See the United States as an ‘Exporter of Terrorism’ [Which of course is the reality, along with israel; you do recall those israeli operatives who were caught cheering the 911 hit, the so-called pearl harbor event so cherished by the neo-cons.] The document states, “This report examines the implications of what it would mean for the US to be seen increasingly as an incubator and ‘exporter of terrorism.’” However, it doesn’t go on to mention the U.S. state sponsored terrorist activities of the Proactive, Preemptive Operations Group (P2OG).
Inside Job? Iraqi govt ‘involved in deadly bombings to get US troops to stay’ More than 40 people have been killed in a string of bombings that have rocked Iraq. In Baghdad alone, over 20 bombs exploded in at least 12 separate incidents. Today’s bombings are raising questions the Iraqi government’s ability to deal with an ongoing insurgency. Sabah Al-Mukhtar from the Arab Lawyers Association says the bombings may actually be the Iraqi government’s way to get US troops to stay.
John McCain’s Attack On Liberty Chuck Baldwin | The citizens of Arizona can do the American people — and liberty itself — a great favor this year by giving Senator John McCain his walking papers. [First, he’s a fraud with a long mob-connected history. Second, he’s an incompetent mental case in the mold of ‘bolton’ et als, but all that’s how and why they keep this compromised a** in there.]
Former FBI Agent Reveals New Angle On Kennedy Assassination [bush, typically, was involved up to his eyeballs, and ‘knuck’ (knucklehead not-to-bright ford) the typical go along to get along. ]‘… Despite the threat and possibility of a conspiracy to assassinate the president, the FBI and Secret Service allowed Kennedy to travel to Dallas. “[They] should have stopped the President from traveling instantly,” said Adams. “You thought I was kidding when I said he would be killed from a window with a high powered rifle,” a “jubilant” Milteer” told the informant following the murder. Adams points out that Milteer was in Dallas on the day of the assassination and has a photograph to prove it. In the photo, Milteer stands near the presidential limousine prior to the shooting. Adams notes this fact was not mentioned in the Warren Commission report. Other, more well-known personages were also photographed in Dealy Plaza on that fateful day, in particular George Bush Senior. The future CIA director and president was photographed standing outside the Texas Book Depository building where it was said Oswald single-handedly shot the president from the sixth floor. Gerald Ford appointed Bush to head-up the agency when the House Select Committee on Assassinations was investigating CIA-FBI links to the murders of John F. Kennedy, Martin Luther King and Robert Kennedy. During Gerald Ford’s funeral in 2007, the elder Bush attacked theories straying from the official version. “After a deluded gunman assassinated President Kennedy, our nation turned to Gerald Ford and a select handful of others to make sense of that madness,” said Bush. “And the conspiracy theorists can say what they will, but the Warren Commission report will always have the final definitive say on this tragic matter. Why? Because Jerry Ford put his name on it and Jerry Ford’s word was always good.” After Adams told the FBI he believed it was impossible for Oswald to have fired three shots with a bolt-action rifle in seven-and-a-half seconds while taking aim through a scope, he was warned by his superiors not to pursue his findings. “Don, be careful what you say and how you say it,” an agent told him. Mr. Adams’ assertions contribute to a huge body of evidence revealing that Kennedy was not murdered by Oswald in the fashion described by the government…’
Finland Suspends Swine Flu Shots After Vaccine Linked With Neurological Disorder Paul Joseph Watson | Finland’s National Institute for Health and Welfare (THL) has suspended the use of the H1N1 vaccine over fears that the shot is linked with narcolepsy.
U.S. Court Rules That Government Can Secretly Track You With GPS, Privacy is For Rich People Only Steve Watson | TIME magazine casually admits that it is now perfectly legal in nine states for the government to attach secret satellite tracking devices to your car and monitor you wherever you go, without a search warrant.
CNN: Opposition to Government, Bankers is Criminal Kurt Nimmo | The sovereign citizen movement is considered a direct and dangerous threat by the government because it rejects out of hand its authority.
Alex Jones: Government Wants to Control Your Music Infowars.com | Alex covers the hysteria over “i-dosing” and the ultimate plan by government to control our minds and emotions.
Megalomaniacs Push For Orwellian “Safe” City, Controlled Internet Biometrics R&D firm Global Rainmakers Inc. recently unveiled a plan to place iris scanners and other tracking devices in what they toted as the “most secure” city in the world.
Study: Oil spill cleanup workers suffered chromosome damage, respiratory issues Spanish fishermen who took part in a clean-up operation after the Prestige oil tanker spill in 2002 have shown symptoms of chromosomal damage and respiratory problems, a study released Tuesday said.
4th Amendment Violating Mobile X-Ray Scanners Hit The Streets As we warned at the beginning of the year, X-ray body scanners currently being used and abused in airports across the world are set to hit the streets as American Science & Engineering reveals that “more than 500 backscatter x-ray scanners mounted in vans that can be driven past neighboring vehicles to see their contents” have been sold to government agencies.
Pentagon Teaches Kindergarten Kids As U.S. Schools Are Militarized For Martial Law Conditioning This represents the process of full spectrum dominance over our children’s minds. First the government paid the mothers not to have husbands in the home (single parent benefits) and now the soldiers are bringing up our kids from Kindergarten age. This is about training Americans almost from birth that’s it’s normal to have troops involved in routine life on a day to day basis. This is total martial law conditioning.
Drudgereport: MORGAN STANLEY: Government Bond Defaults Inevitable...
Roubini: Growth to Be 'Well Below' 1% ...
New Home Sales Sink to Lowest Pace on Record...
POLITICO: SOME DEMS THINK HOUSE IS GONE...
INTEL CEO blasts Obama, Dems; USA faces looming tech decline...
LETTERMAN TURNS: 'He'll have plenty of time for vacations after his one term' … [ This really is so true … wobama is so total, typical b*** s*** ] ...
Economy Caught in Depression, Not Recession: Rosenberg Positive gross domestic product readings and other mildly hopeful signs are masking an ugly truth: The US economy is in a 1930s-style Depression, Gluskin Sheff economist David Rosenberg said Tuesday. ‘Positive gross domestic product readings and other mildly hopeful signs are masking an ugly truth: The US economy is in a 1930s-style Depression, Gluskin Sheff economist David Rosenberg said Tuesday. Writing in his daily briefing to investors, Rosenberg said the Great Depression also had its high points, with a series of positive GDP reports and sharp stock market gains. But then as now, those signs of recovery were unsustainable and only provided a false sense of stability, said Rosenberg. Rosenberg calls current economic conditions “a depression, and not just some garden-variety recession,” and notes that any good news both during the initial 1929-33 recession and the one that began in 2008 triggered “euphoric response.”
Op-Ed Columnist - The Third Depression - NYTimes.com Economic Policy: Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman says the US is in the "early stages of a third Great Depression. The Third Depression By PAUL KRUGMAN Published: June 27, 2010 ‘Recessions are common; depressions are rare. As far as I can tell, there were only two eras in economic history that were widely described as “depressions” at the time: the years of deflation and instability that followed the Panic of 1873 and the years of mass unemployment that followed the financial crisis of 1929-31. Neither the Long Depression of the 19th century nor the Great Depression of the 20th was an era of nonstop decline — on the contrary, both included periods when the economy grew. But these episodes of improvement were never enough to undo the damage from the initial slump, and were followed by relapses. We are now, I fear, in the early stages of a third depression. It will probably look more like the Long Depression than the much more severe Great Depression. But the cost — to the world economy and, above all, to the millions of lives blighted by the absence of jobs — will nonetheless be immense. And this third depression will be primarily a failure of policy. Around the world — most recently at last weekend’s deeply discouraging G-20 meeting — governments are obsessing about inflation when the real threat is deflation, preaching the need for belt-tightening when the real problem is inadequate spending. In 2008 and 2009, it seemed as if we might have learned from history. Unlike their predecessors, who raised interest rates in the face of financial crisis, the current leaders of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank slashed rates and moved to support credit markets. Unlike governments of the past, which tried to balance budgets in the face of a plunging economy, today’s governments allowed deficits to rise. And better policies helped the world avoid complete collapse: the recession brought on by the financial crisis arguably ended last summer. But future historians will tell us that this wasn’t the end of the third depression, just as the business upturn that began in 1933 wasn’t the end of the Great Depression. After all, unemployment — especially long-term unemployment — remains at levels that would have been considered catastrophic not long ago, and shows no sign of coming down rapidly. And both the United States and Europe are well on their way toward Japan-style deflationary traps …’
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