Business / Economic / Financial
[ This link to a somewhat more cumulative blog posts page will precede current days news since most all topics remain current in terms of impact and longer-term effect and can be searched by topical index term more easily. The same is provided since the blog site http://alpeiablog.blogspot.com has just been censored as to size by google which is typical for google as nsa / cia / gov’t shill as more are becoming aware of. The same is true for microsoft, another co. that’s seen their best days and relies on the government to maintain their monopoly. Up to now the better page http://www.scribd.com/alpeia is provided for ease of formatting and clarity thereby while the Washington Post page is the real deal but without formatting http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp- srv/community/mypost/index.html?plckPersonaPage=PersonaComments&plckUserId=alpeia&newspaperUserId=alpeia (Only up to 3-11-11-you must be logged in - (Washington Post) [ Comments COMMENTS ARE CLOSED WHILE WE UPGRADE OUR SYSTEMS ] the comments are no longer archived on their site ) . The following is the cumulative archive of blog posts / topics for 2010 as the new year starts anew (and archived by quarter): http://albertpeia.com/December312010postsarchive.htm or PDF formatted version
http://albertpeia.com/December312010postsarchive.pdf ]
Budget passes, but conservatives let down (Washington Post) The compromise touted as cutting $38.5 billion would actually only cut $352 million this fiscal year, an analysis says. While that didn’t prevent the budget from passing, it could sour some Republicans. [ Come on! This 'budget deal' was a showboating scam ab initio … Davis gets this right: Davis ‘… This is how we pay off our current debts and I think bondholders are simply happy to get anything out of a country that admits it owes $15Tn (1/4 of global GDP) but probably owes closer to $60Tn (entire global GDP) in the form of unfunded liabilities. The funniest thing about this (and you have to laugh) is to see Conservative pundits get on TV and talk about how we need to cut $100Bn worth of discretionary spending to "fix" this (while continuing to spend $1Tn on the military and $1Tn on tax cuts for the top 1% each year). There is no fixing this and even a Republican said you can’t fool all of the people all of the time. THIS HOUSE OF CARDS IS TEETERING FOLKS – PLEASE BE CAREFUL OUT THERE! ‘ . Obama seeks spending cuts, taxes on wealthy (WP) [ Too little, too late for 'wobama the b' (for b*** s***) ! After all, though contraindicated, he previously extended the war criminal, moron bush tax cuts to what is now realistically perceived as 'their base' (that top 1 percent). Wobama has no credibility whatsoever, wars and all. He's just plain done! Liberals worry Obama has given up ground (WP) [ Worried? Given up ground? Are they kidding? Is this some parallel universe they're operating in? Come on! Wake up! Wobama's done! Finito! He's been and is an abject failure as president; both by what he's done as not promised and not done as promised, viz., perpetual wars and overspending, etc., and no prosecutions of the frauds on wall street, etc., respectively. He is a total failure and an embarrassment to the presidency as was his predecessor. He's totally incompetent with an innate predilection to 'zig when he should zag' … 'wobama the b' (for b*** s***) is pathetic! Quite simply, for wobama, it's too late! … Drudgereport: RASMUSSEN: President hits new low Taxpayers foot $850M bill for Wall St.’s pension fees NY Post | New York City taxpayers are helping to pay $850 million in Wall Street investment fees.
U.S. Deficit to Rise to Largest Among Major Economies, IMF Says The U.S. is set to have the largest budget deficit of major developed economies this year and should narrow it now rather than face tough adjustments in the next two years, the International Monetary Fund said.
Inflation, fueled by gas and food prices, adds to worry
White House warns of debt ‘Armageddon’
Drudgereport: Obama to Call for Higher Taxes...
DEFICIT ROCKETS 16% IN FIRST HALF OF YEAR...
Inflation Actually 'Near 10%'...
IMF: US 'lacks credibility' on debt...
U.S. response in Bahrain criticized (Washington Post) With Bahrain’s iron first tightening, the White House is facing awkward questions on its Mideast approach. [ Approach? What approach? That is, what cohesive, rational strategy can be discerned at least through the last decade to present other than a self-fulfilling, self-perpetuating, self-defeating policy that has literally alienated much of the world, even beyond that region, against america while literally bankrupting this nation. Obama seeks spending cuts, taxes on wealthy (WP) [ Too little, too late for 'wobama the b' (for b*** s***) ! After all, though contraindicated, he previously extended the war criminal, moron bush tax cuts to what is now realistically perceived as 'their base' (that top 1 percent). Wobama has no credibility whatsoever, wars and all. He's just plain done! Liberals worry Obama has given up ground (WP) [ Worried? Given up ground? Are they kidding? Is this some parallel universe they're operating in? Come on! Wake up! Wobama's done! Finito! He's been and is an abject failure as president; both by what doing what he promised not to, and not doing what he promised to do, viz., perpetual wars and overspending, etc., and no prosecutions of the frauds on wall street, etc., respectively. He is a total failure and an embarrassment to the presidency as was his predecessor. He's totally incompetent with an innate predilection to 'zig when he should zag' … 'wobama the b' (for b*** s***) is pathetic! Quite simply, for wobama, it's too late! … Drudgereport: RASMUSSEN: President hits new low
New World Powers Push for End of Dollar Dominance Reuters | The BRICS group of emerging-market powers kept up the pressure on Thursday for a revamped global monetary system that relies less on the dollar
Paper: Obama’s Speech Most ‘Dishonest in Decades’ WSJ | Obama’s toxic speech and even worse plan for deficits and debt.
Libya: All About Oil, or All About Banking? I have never before heard of a central bank being created in just a matter of weeks out of a popular uprising. This suggests we have a bit more than a rag tag bunch of rebels running around and that there are some pretty sophisticated influences.
Corrupted!: 5 Shocking Examples Of Government Corruption That Will Blow Your Mind At times it really is breathtaking how corrupted the U.S. government has become. Government corruption has become so endemic in our society that most people have just kind of accepted it as “normal”. ]
A new economic world order? (Washington Post) Brazil, Russia, India, China and S. Africa use third summit to demand restructuring of global finance. [
New World Powers Push for End of Dollar Dominance Reuters | The BRICS group of emerging-market powers kept up the pressure on Thursday for a revamped global monetary system that relies less on the dollar. Let's not kid ourselves … for the rest of the world, if not this nation, reality counts! Too many people, in too many nations (including this one), in too many ways, have been burnt by pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt america. Weekly Unemployment Claims Suddenly Jump Higher Wall St. Cheat Sheet 'The Department of Labor’s Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report was released this morning for last week. The 27,000 increase in claims is on top of a 3,000 upward revision to the previous week’s claims. Here is the official statement from the Department of Labor: …' [ Spare yourself their mindless b*** s***/statement. Do you know how many points on the dow, etc., that b.s. story was good for... then there's the 'stopped looking fudge factor'. ] [ Worthless dollar, high metals, high oil price rally on wall street … riiiiight! ] Trade Data is Bleak: Exports Down, Imports Down, Growth Estimates Down
Dow, S&P inch up as growth questioned, Google off late (Reuters) Stocks that outperform in a weak economy helped the Dow and S&P 500 eke out gains on Thursday as concerns about faltering growth and inflation prompted investors to seek out less volatile na...
Earnings Help DJIA Turn a Bad Day Good [ Earnings? Are people dreaming … blocking … repressing reality? Kaspar '… ... growth in earnings have been artificially manufactured...
· The change in accounting rules for the financial sector by FASB has generated massive “false” accounting profits beginning in 2009.
· The extended (and then further extended) unemployment benefits have kept an artificially higher demand for consumer consumption. As a result, the US government has artificially subsidized corporate profits.
· The billions saved through “free loading” by homeowners who have defaulted on their mortgages yet maintained their residence, thus living without a mortgage payment.
· The artificially suppressed interest rates.
So, not only do we have a valuation bubble, but the earnings on which the projections are based are non-sustaining... same overvaluation situation as a few years ago … nothing fixed ...' ]
Congress OKs big budget cuts, bigger fights await (AP) [ Record? Come on! Wake up! In todays evermore worthless dollars, and compared to the record, insurmountable debt? They're dreamin'! Barely covers annual interest! ]
Shut out of ownership? (Washington Post) Officials criticize White House proposal to push home buyers to come up with 20% down payments. [ And especially in this economy … things are much worse than they are 'letting on' … take a look at these realistically dismal charts from of all places, the St. Louis fed for a more sobering view: 10 Scary Charts: A 'Post-Recession' Economy Wake Up Call Kavadas 'I find the following 10 charts to be disturbing. These charts would be disturbing at any point in the economic cycle; that they depict such a tenuous situation now – 21 months after the official (as per the 9-20-10 NBER announcement) June 2009 end of the recession – is especially notable.
...
These following charts are from the St. Louis Federal Reserve:
Housing starts (last updated 3-16-11):
(Click to enlarge)
The Federal Deficit (last updated 2-17-11):
(Click to enlarge)
Federal Net Outlays (last updated 2-17-11):
(Click to enlarge)
State & Local Personal Income Tax Receipts (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated 3-25-11):
(Click to enlarge)
Total Loans and Leases of Commercial Banks (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated 4-11-11):
(Click to enlarge)
Bank Credit – All Commercial Banks (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated 4-11-11):
(Click to enlarge)
M1 Money Multiplier (last updated 4-7-11):
(Click to enlarge)
Median Duration of Unemployment (last updated 4-1-11):
(Click to enlarge)
This next chart is from the CalculatedRisk.com blog post of 4-1-11, and it shows (in red) the relative length and depth of this downturn and subsequent recovery from an employment perspective:
(Click to enlarge)
This last chart is of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index and it depicts broad-based economic activity (last updated 3-21-11):
http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2011/4/14/saupload_cfnai_monthly_ma3_3_21_11.png
(Click to enlarge)
…' ]
Clinton predicts violent spring in Afghanistan (Washington Post) Secretary of State Hillary Clinton on Thursday warned NATO allies not to abandon Afghanistan and predicted a violent spring in the war there. [ Well, there you go … something to look forward to … sounds like a plan … you know, that progress thing so touted by gates / petraeus … and don't be surprised if in a symbolic gesture to drive home her non-message that she plant some forget-me-nots in the ever growing cemeteries which realistically remind us that these people, particularly innocent civilians, died for no good reason at all. Then again there's america's defacto bankruptcy. 'Alas, poor america … a nation of infinite jest, and unexcellent fancy … and pervasive criminality' … Barry Bonds Faces Jail Time While Wall Street Execs Sit Pretty Touryalai ' … Senate’s Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations released the findings of a 2-year investigation around Wall Street’s bad behavior leading up the financial crisis. The report concluded that Wall Street firms contaminated the U.S. financial system with toxic mortgages and engaged in conflicts of interest. Goldman Sachs’ behavior was especially egregious according to the report, and Senator Carl Levin wants everyone to know it. In fact, he hopes to see the “great vampire squid” face criminal charges for allegedly lying in its 2010 testimony before Congress.“In my judgment, Goldman clearly misled their clients and they misled the Congress,” he said.So now, Levin plans to refer that testimony to the Department of Justice (which has the power to bring criminal charges) and the Securities and Exchange Commission (which has authority to bring civil charges and fines and already did against Goldman when it settled for $550 million.)But will Levin’s threats amount to any criminal action against Goldman? Probably not ... it seems like Levin isn’t even going after Goldman for any of its actual business activity rather he’s accusing the firm’s executives like CEO Lloyd Blankfein of lying before Congress. Here’s the problem with that: the question and answer session between Senators and executives during the testimony was so incredibly rife with unclarity and so confusing that it would be hard to accuse the executives of willingly giving false answers.Bill Singer, a veteran Wall Street securities lawyer and Forbes contributor says the senators’ questions were so tactless and fuzzy that they allowed for extremely indirect answers by executives. Singers says the testimony made him “wince” when he heard the “incompetent” Congress members deliver speeches and follow them up with inept questions...' Former fund manager charged (WP) [ Joseph F. Skowron III accused of insider trading. Drudgereport: Senate panel slams Goldman in scathing crisis report... (Goldman clearly misled their clients and they misled Congress … referring this matter to the Justice Department and to the SEC) ]
Weekly Unemployment Claims Suddenly Jump Higher Wall St. Cheat Sheet 'The Department of Labor’s Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report was released this morning for last week. The 27,000 increase in claims is on top of a 3,000 upward revision to the previous week’s claims. Here is the official statement from the Department of Labor: …' [ Spare yourself their mindless b*** s***/statement. Do you know how many points on the dow, etc., that b.s. story was good for... then there's the 'stopped looking fudge factor'. ] [ Worthless dollar, high metals, high oil price rally on wall street … riiiiight! ] Trade Data is Bleak: Exports Down, Imports Down, Growth Estimates Down
Dow, S&P inch up as growth questioned, Google off late (Reuters) Stocks that outperform in a weak economy helped the Dow and S&P 500 eke out gains on Thursday as concerns about faltering growth and inflation prompted investors to seek out less volatile na...
Earnings Help DJIA Turn a Bad Day Good [ Earnings? Are people dreaming … blocking … repressing reality? Kaspar '… ... growth in earnings have been artificially manufactured...
· The change in accounting rules for the financial sector by FASB has generated massive “false” accounting profits beginning in 2009.
· The extended (and then further extended) unemployment benefits have kept an artificially higher demand for consumer consumption. As a result, the US government has artificially subsidized corporate profits.
· The billions saved through “free loading” by homeowners who have defaulted on their mortgages yet maintained their residence, thus living without a mortgage payment.
· The artificially suppressed interest rates.
So, not only do we have a valuation bubble, but the earnings on which the projections are based are non-sustaining... same overvaluation situation as a few years ago … nothing fixed ...' ]
Congress OKs big budget cuts, bigger fights await (AP) [ Record? Come on! Wake up! In todays evermore worthless dollars, and compared to the record, insurmountable debt? They're dreamin'! Barely covers annual interest! ]AP - Congress sent President Barack Obama hard-fought legislation cutting a record $38 billion from domestic spending on Thursday, bestowing bipartisan support on the first major compromise between th...
'Perfect Storm' Has Markets in Its Path
LIARS! Goldman Sachs is the Next Barry BondsWall Street Cheat Sheet 'If you hate Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS), you’ll love today’s news. A Senate subcommittee released a new report showing how Goldman recommended four Collateralized Debt Obligations — Hudson, Anderson, Timberwolf, and Abacus — to its clients without “fully disclosing key information about those products,” or Goldman’s opinions of the securities.
To make matters worse for the firm some people describe as a “Vampire Squid“, Sen. Carl Levin said the Senators also found new evidence proving Goldman Sachs’ (NYSE:GS) executives including CEO Lloyd Blankfein may have perjured themselves during Congressional testimony given last year. Move over Barry Bonds. Steroid use didn’t abet the collapse of the US economy.
Goldman isn’t the only high profile bank (NYSE:XLF) on the coals. Deutsche Bank (NYSE:DB) committed the same scams and Washington Mutual (NYSE:JPM) “knowingly underwrote mortgages of questionable value despite warnings from their chief credit officer.”
Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) already agreed to pay $550 million to settle civil fraud charges over similar accusations. So, they can’t be squeaky clean. And we all know Congress is looking for more blood, so I think Blankfein and friends better be taking notes on how everything plays out with Barry Bonds.
Goldman may also consider spending less time issuing bearish analyst notes on Oil and more on the operation in their own building.'
Barry Bonds Faces Jail Time While Wall Street Execs Sit Pretty Touryalai ' … Yesterday, the Senate’s Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations released the findings of a 2-year investigation around Wall Street’s bad behavior leading up the financial crisis. The report concluded that Wall Street firms contaminated the U.S. financial system with toxic mortgages and engaged in conflicts of interest.Goldman Sachs’ behavior was especially egregious according to the report, and Senator Carl Levin wants everyone to know it.In fact, he hopes to see the “great vampire squid” face criminal charges for allegedly lying in its 2010 testimony before Congress.“In my judgment, Goldman clearly misled their clients and they misled the Congress,” he said.So now, Levin plans to refer that testimony to the Department of Justice (which has the power to bring criminal charges) and the Securities and Exchange Commission (which has authority to bring civil charges and fines and already did against Goldman when it settled for $550 million.)But will Levin’s threats amount to any criminal action against Goldman? Probably not.First, it seems like Levin isn’t even going after Goldman for any of its actual business activity rather he’s accusing the firm’s executives like CEO Lloyd Blankfein of lying before Congress. Here’s the problem with that: the question and answer session between Senators and executives during the testimony was so incredibly rife with unclarity and so confusing that it would be hard to accuse the executives of willingly giving false answers.Bill Singer, a veteran Wall Street securities lawyer and Forbes contributor says the senators’ questions were so tactless and fuzzy that they allowed for extremely indirect answers by executives. Singers says the testimony made him “wince” when he heard the “incompetent” Congress members deliver speeches and follow them up with inept questions...' Former fund manager charged (Washington Post) [ Joseph F. Skowron III accused of insider trading. Drudgereport: Senate panel slams Goldman in scathing crisis report... (Goldman clearly misled their clients and they misled Congress … referring this matter to the Justice Department and to the SEC)
Equity Valuations Are Forming the Second Biggest Bubble in U.S. History Kaspar 'Despite the terrible economic performance of the past ten years, equity valuations are the 2nd largest bubble in U.S. history... the cause and the potential ramifications of this are astounding.
Exhibit one: The cyclically-adjusted price-to-earnings ratio, or CAPE.
This is not a “fad” valuation metric. CAPE dates back to 1871, offering 140 years worth of data, during which time, the mean price-to-earnings ratio is 16.
According to Yale University’s Dr. Robert Shiller, the market is now 41% overvalued according to this valuation metric. The only time the markets have been more overvalued was a few brief months in 1929 and the tech bubble.
[chart http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2011/4/12/saupload_cape_thumb1.png ]
Exhibit 2: The Q ratio, which measures total market value compared to its replacement cost.
The Q-ratio data in the chart below dates back to 1900. According to the data, the markets have now surpassed the 1929 peak valuation by over 8%.
[chart http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2011/4/12/saupload_q_ratio_thumb1.png ]
… bubbles turn a believable story/trend into an overvaluation. In the 1700s during the South Sea Bubble...Railroading prospects induced a bubble in the late 1800s ... In the 1920s, a bubble … A similar life-changing invention – the Internet – swept the attention of investors in the 1990s ...
What is the story today? The prospect of inflation? High unemployment?
Exhibit 3: The gap between projected 12-month earnings against the 10-year average
... the market is stretching this reversion greater than 2000 and 2007!
[chart http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2011/4/12/saupload_gap_between_12_month_average_thumb1.png ]
... growth in earnings have been artificially manufactured...
· The change in accounting rules for the financial sector by FASB has generated massive “false” account profits beginning in 2009.
· The extended (and then further extended) unemployment benefits have kept an artificially higher demand for consumer consumption. As a result, the US government has artificially subsidized corporate profits.
· The billions saved through “free loading” by homeowners who have defaulted on their mortgages yet maintained their residence, thus living without a mortgage payment.
· The artificially suppressed interest rates.
So, not only do we have a valuation bubble, but the earnings on which the projections are based are non-sustaining... same overvaluation situation as a few years ago … nothing fixed ...'
U.S. Consumer Credit Puts Markets and Economy on Notice Alexandre 'I often see money supply as the headline when pointing to inflationary pressures building up in the system, but the supply of anything is not very meaningful unless it is being consumed. If I attend a party and the host drops 12 bottles of the finest wine on my lap, I will not get drunk unless I consume the mind-altering juice.
Apparently the effects of the Fed’s Quantitative Easing – or "money printing," if one wishes – are muted at best, and the so-called runaway inflation is not taking shape, although the recent oil spike is only now impacting retail food prices – mostly vegetables, fruit, and dairy -- and has added a few percentage points to daily staples. I am aware of this because I do most of the household food shopping and can recite the current prices of a number of items, and what they were last December, although aggressive sales on a variety of items continue to take place to attract a shrinking consumer’s wallet. However, more pronounced deflationary pressures continue to erode the savings tied to real estate – the largest asset for most Americans – and will not end anytime soon.
U.S. trade balance figures were best summarized by Reuters, and came on the heels of the first Chinese trade balance negative quarter since 2004:
U.S. imports and exports fell in February, prompting analysts to cut again their forecasts for U.S. economic growth in early 2011 and showing signs of a slowing in the global recovery. The trade gap totaled $45.8 billion and was down 2.6 percent from January as imports fell faster than exports, even as oil prices hit their highest level since October 2008, the Commerce Department said on Tuesday.
U.S. retail sales delivered a mixed and weak picture, due to the high price of gasoline with 0.4% growth and 0.8% core, while previous numbers were revised up — February from 0.3% to 0.7%, and March’s sales increased to 1.1% from 1.0%. However, auto sales shrunk 1.7%, which brings us to consumer credit and how the data series is building an uneasy picture of divergence between reality and expectations. Even if one is to assume that the Fed’s quantitative easing had a hand in credit expansion, the impact was negligible and is already fading before the program ends.
http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2011/4/14/765325-130278941172719-Carlos-X--Alexandre.png
Revolving credit includes credit cards, or the daily financial bread and butter for most consumers. Non-revolving is defined by the Federal Reserve Board in its release as including “automobile loans and all other loans not included in revolving credit, such as loans for mobile homes, education, boats, trailers, or vacations. These loans may be secured or unsecured.”
For the record, consumer credit expanded virtually non-stop between 1943 and 2008, then dropped precipitously into last year. Now we are observing an expansion of non-revolving, a resumption of a contraction in the revolving category, and total consumer credit displaying a little bounce and starting to descend again. Residential mortgages and home equity lines of credit are not tracked by the Fed in this report, but we know that tale from other sources.
But let’s stop a second and take a look at the non-revolving story. Of the seven types — and you can see them in the release — only “Federal Government” increased, while the other six decreased. Why? Student loans. That type of credit, although helpful to those seeking an education, is not contributing to the traditional economic engine, and without student loans, consumer credit would have been short by $9 billion – and an overall contraction.
One very interesting piece of data in the report is the “Loan-to-Value Ratio” for new car loans at auto finance companies; I see it as a little window into consumers’ demeanor. Where in 2006 the consumer was financing 94% of value, the latest reading shows a huge decline to 80% – larger cash down payments – and that is a screaming reflection of consumers’ attitudes toward debt. The table below shows that, with the exception of the “Loan-to-Value Ratio,” not much has changed between 2006 and today.
| New Car Loans by Auto Finance Companies | 2006 | 2011 |
| Interest Rate | 4.99% | 4.73% |
| Loan Maturity | 63 months | 62.3 months |
| Loan-to-Value Ratio | 94% | 80% |
| Amount Financed | $26,620 | $26,673 |
Joe and Mary Consumer are extremely conservative about their money, and no longer splurge without a second thought. Going forward, consumer attitudes have changed considerably, are here to stay, and are not priced in the markets. The fallout will be felt for a very long time, and for those who state that the American consumer is not that important in a global sense, time will tell – and the cracks are already showing...'
10 Scary Charts: A 'Post-Recession' Economy Wake Up Call Kavadas 'I find the following 10 charts to be disturbing. These charts would be disturbing at any point in the economic cycle; that they depict such a tenuous situation now – 21 months after the official (as per the 9-20-10 NBER announcement) June 2009 end of the recession – is especially notable.
These charts raise a lot of questions. As well, they highlight the "atypical" nature of our economic situation from a long-term historical perspective. I regularly discuss many troubling characteristics of our economy in this EconomicGreenfield.com blog.
All of these charts (except one, as noted) are from the Federal Reserve, and represent the most recently updated data.
These following charts are from the St. Louis Federal Reserve:
Housing starts (last updated 3-16-11):
(Click to enlarge)
The Federal Deficit (last updated 2-17-11):
(Click to enlarge)
Federal Net Outlays (last updated 2-17-11):
(Click to enlarge)
State & Local Personal Income Tax Receipts (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated 3-25-11):
(Click to enlarge)
Total Loans and Leases of Commercial Banks (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated 4-11-11):
(Click to enlarge)
Bank Credit – All Commercial Banks (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated 4-11-11):
(Click to enlarge)
M1 Money Multiplier (last updated 4-7-11):
(Click to enlarge)
Median Duration of Unemployment (last updated 4-1-11):
(Click to enlarge)
This next chart is from the CalculatedRisk.com blog post of 4-1-11, and it shows (in red) the relative length and depth of this downturn and subsequent recovery from an employment perspective:
(Click to enlarge)
This last chart is of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index and it depicts broad-based economic activity (last updated 3-21-11):
http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2011/4/14/saupload_cfnai_monthly_ma3_3_21_11.png
(Click to enlarge)
I will update these charts on an intermittent basis as they deserve close monitoring ...'
Consumers spend more, but on gas (Washington Post) [ Retail Sales Miss Expectations Wall St. Cheat Sheet On Wednesday April 13, 2011, 9:40 am EDT 'The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for March, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $389.3 billion, an increase of 0.4 percent from the previous month, and 7.1 percent above March 2010. Analysts were expecting a rise of 0.5 percent...' Retail sales? Where? The mall? If they can find one with stores … Drudgereport: Malls hit highest vacancy in 11 years... This is the grim economic reality http://albertpeia.com/grimreality.htm . A Trading System That Challenges the Efficient Market Hypothesis [ ...What parallel universe is McCurdy operating in? Even in the heyday of that so-called hypothesis, close examination of the data indicated that if you weren't timing the market you were, in a somewhat 'Charlie Sheenish' manner of speaking, duh! … losing! (my MBA Thesis, 1977, NYU GBA, Finance – which required study / mastery of such math intensive theory). Said 'hypothesis' wasn't true then and certainly isn't true today where complex computer-programming can and does artificially produce the various criteria / buy / sell / signals alluded to in the article (they're widely known / followed) creating the rigged / fraudulent trading game geared to maximized the 'churn-and-earn' commission profits (net negative in economic terms) and enabling the passing of 'those hot potatoes'/paper shares in a manner that resembles a game of musical chairs with those not in the loop winding up holding the bag (including pension funds, etc.); all the while funding those lavish lifesyles / over-compensation of the frauds on wall street along with the direct / indirect bribes inuring them from stigma and as well, insulating them from proper scrutiny and prosecution. Fundamentals, fundamental rational analysis has become virtually irrelevant to these now fraud-prone markets like never before in history facilitating frauds of magnitudes that have made the rationalization 'too big to fail' a byword... The frauds on wall street et als should be criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed. Dave's Daily 'If you can keep interest rates this low this long, its inevitable cheap financing can allow companies to start cobbling each other up. Further Ben's policies allow companies like IBM to sell bonds at 1% and buy back shares with the proceeds (total paper bubble-scam). POMO is occurring almost daily and Primary Dealers can buy back their shares and pay dividends with what essentially is taxpayer money-- … an especially great opportunity to sell / take profits while you still can since there's much worse to come! ]
Bretton Woods II-attendee Joseph Stiglitz advocates global reserve currency RT | Fmr. World Bank Chief Economist says the US dollar as the reserve currency is hurting the entire world.
More Americans leaving workforce USA Today | Only 45.4% of Americans had jobs in 2010, the lowest rate since 1983.
Jobless Claims Unexpectedly Rise; Inflation Pressure Grows CNBC | Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 27,000 to a seasonally adjusted 412,000, the Labor Department said.
Goldman Sachs misled Congress after duping clients, Senate panel chairman says
Bloomberg | Goldman Sachs misled clients and Congress about the firm’s bets on securities tied to the housing market.
BRICS demand global monetary shake-up, greater influence The BRICS group of emerging-market powers kept up the pressure on Thursday for a revamped global monetary system that relies less on the dollar and for a louder voice in international financial institutions.
Gold prices to strike records ‘above $1,600 this year’ Record-breaking gold will likely surge past $1,600 per ounce for the first time later this year, driven by fears over high inflation and low global interest rates, consultancy GFMS forecast Wednesday.
Change: Percent Of Americans Working Lowest Since Reagan The share of the population that is working fell to its lowest level last year since women started entering the workforce in large numbers three decades ago, a USA TODAY analysis finds.
The Budget Deal Turns Out To Be A Gigantic Fraud Originally the deal between The White House and Congressional Republicans was touted for delivering $38 billion in cost savings.
(4-14-11) Dow 12,285 +14 Nasdaq 2,760 -1 S&P 500 1,314 -0- [CLOSE- OIL $109.19 (-54% for year 2008) (RECORD TRADING HIGH $147.27) GAS $3.69 (reg. gas in LAND OF FRUITS AND NUTS $4.07 REG./ $4.14 MID-GRADE/ $4.22 PREM./ $4.27 DIESEL) / GOLD $1,476 (+24% for year 2009) / SILVER $42.22 (+47% for year 2009) PLATINUM $1,790 (+56% for year 2009) Metal News for the Day / DOLLAR= .69 EURO, 83 YEN, .60 POUND STERLING, ETC. (How low can you go - LOWER)/ Interest Rates: http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield 10 YR NOTE YIELD 3.51% …..… AP Business Highlights ...Yahoo Market Update... T. Rowe Price Weekly Recap – Stocks / Bonds / Currencies - Domestic / International This Is a Secular Bear Market and The End of Buy and Hold … and Hope The bull market that never was/were beyond wall street b.s. when measured in gold ‘WORST ECONOMIC COLLAPSE EVER’ Must Read Economic / Financial Data This Depression is just beginning The coming depression… thecomingdepression.net The Next Wave of Collapse is Coming Sooner than you think Sliding Back Into the Great Depression ABSOLUTELY, ABSURDLY, RIDICULOUS! SELL / TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME!
National / World
Alex Jones: We’re Not Your Slaves! Infowars | Alex takes a call from a chicago women who says the school system there has been corrupt for many years.
SWAT Attacks Home School Mom for Refusing to Force Med Child Kurt Nimmo | CPS works with SWAT team to grab home schooled child for refusing to take dangerous drug Risperdal.
TSA Gropes 8-Year Old Boy, In Front Of Outraged Mother Steve Watson | Ms Shehan quickly grabbed her camera and took photos to document the incident.
Red Pill Review: Police State 4 – The Rise of FEMA William Walbut | This review from our Red Pill Documentaries page covers Police State 4-The Rise of FEMA.
Obama, Boehner Budget Deal Increases Deficit Kurt Nimmo | Bernanke and the Fed are doing the best job they can to enslave you and your children.
Banks Face $3.6 Trillion ‘Wall’ of Debt: IMF Reuters | The world’s banks face a $3.6 trillion “wall of maturing debt” in the next two years.
Globalists Positioned to Exploit Japan’s Tragedy Tony Cartalucci | America couldn’t offer Japan much help even if they wanted to.
New World Powers Push for End of Dollar Dominance Reuters | The BRICS group of emerging-market powers kept up the pressure on Thursday for a revamped global monetary system that relies less on the dollar
Paper: Obama’s Speech Most ‘Dishonest in Decades’ WSJ | Obama’s toxic speech and even worse plan for deficits and debt.
Nuclear expert Fuksushima 1000 Time Worse Than Engineers Ever Anticipated Arnold Gundersen discusses the Fukushima Accident Severity Level Being Raised to Level 7, saying the Fukushima disasters is 1,000 times worse than the nuclear engineers who built the plant ever anticipated.
Libya: All About Oil, or All About Banking? I have never before heard of a central bank being created in just a matter of weeks out of a popular uprising. This suggests we have a bit more than a rag tag bunch of rebels running around and that there are some pretty sophisticated influences.
Busby: 400,000 to develop cancer in 200 km radius of Fukushima Engineers at Japan’s Fukushima plant continue work on emptying highly radioactive water from one of the nuclear reactors. The latest tests show that radiation levels in the sea near the damaged facility have spiked.
Corrupted!: 5 Shocking Examples Of Government Corruption That Will Blow Your Mind At times it really is breathtaking how corrupted the U.S. government has become. Government corruption has become so endemic in our society that most people have just kind of accepted it as “normal”.
Drudgereport: BUCHANAN: Obama blows up the bridge...
Tiny Tim (geithner): YOU WILL GIVE ME MORE MONEY
OBAMA CALLS NEW TAXES 'SPENDING REDUCTIONS IN TAX CODE'...
RYAN: 'Dramatically inaccurate,' 'hopelessly inadequate'...
CANTOR: Raising taxes 'is not the answer'...
Obama's Support Among Poor Drops to All-time Low...
Left's angst grows over president's 'shift to center'...
Pentagon Warns Obama Against Deeper Defense Cuts ... (And where is it going to come from ... I've said before, and it's still true today, that we've already had in pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt, war crimes nation america a defacto coup d'etat) ...
GOOGLE: IT'S A MISS
BANKS FACE $3,600,000,000,000 IN DEBT (and then there's the trillions in worthless, paper, toxic assets / securities that are being carried 'new FASB rule change defacto bankrupt american style)...
RISE OF NEW WORLD POWER[WITHOUT USA]...
SHOCK: CBO Says Budget Deal Will Cut Spending by Only $352 Million...
Libya Rebels in 'hopeless disarray'...
Seek $2 Billion Loan...
NATO short of planes...
Senate panel slams Goldman in scathing crisis report... (...Goldman clearly misled their clients and they misled Congress … referring this matter to the Justice Department and to the SEC … )
NBC: Rev. Jesse Jackson Subject of Gay Harassment Complaint...
Duke lacrosse rape accuser faces more charges...
Man Mangum accused of stabbing dies...
JOBLESS CLAIMS RISE; INFLATION PRESSURE GROWS...
Suicide Rates Rise...
Consumers Hardest Hit by Oil Shock...
NEW WORLD POWERS PUSH FOR END OF DOLLAR DOMINANCE...
New York, San Diego no longer have white majorities...
'Embarrassing' Sarkozy biopic to debut at Cannes.. A biopic of Nicolas Sarkozy that charts his rise to power and break-up of his marriage has been selected for the Cannes Film Festival, threatening to turn the unpopular French president into an international laughing stock ... The premiere spells potential embarrassment for Mr Sarkozy and could dent his bid for a second presidential term at a time when his disapproval rating amongst the French electorate stands at 74 per cent'
BUCHANAN: Obama blows up the bridge... "Rather than building bridges, he's poisoning wells," said Rep. Paul Ryan, after listening to Barack Obama's scathing attack on his deficit-reduction plan as a shredding of America's social contract with the elderly and poor.
Ryan is right. Yet, with Obama's partisan savagery, virtually calling the GOP plan immoral, we have clarity.
There will be no grand bipartisan bargain on taxes and spending.
The two parties on Capitol Hill and the president will not be coming together to solve the gravest financial and fiscal crisis America has faced since the Great Depression. Between them today is a high wall and a deep ditch.
The heart of the Ryan plan is to turn Medicaid into block grants to the states, so each can decide for itself how best to use the funds, and to convert Medicare into a program where the U.S. government would provide citizens with the funds and freedom to chose whatever health insurance they wished to buy.
Obama denounced both.
But if the Republican Medicare and Medicaid proposals are dead on arrival in Harry Reid's Senate and Obama's White House, Obama's plan to raise taxes is equally lifeless.
On MSNBC's "Morning Joe," this writer asked Grover Norquist of Americans for Tax Reform exactly how many GOP members of the House had taken his pledge not to raise taxes.
His response: "The commitment that 235 Republican members of the House and 40 Republicans in the Senate have signed is the Taxpayer Protection Pledge – it says no raising taxes. So, taxes are off the table."
Seems clear. But if virtually every GOP member of the House and 40 GOP senators have signed a pledge not to raise taxes, how can they dishonor that pledge?
How could they agree to raise the top U.S. income tax rate back up to the 40 percent of the Bill Clinton era, as Obama demands, then go home and tell voters they had no choice, that to get a deal with Reid and Obama they had to let the government take a larger share of the income of American citizens?
They cannot.
Put bluntly, a vote by a Republican House to raise taxes as part of a big budget deal would be an act of collective suicide by the party of Speaker John Boehner.
And the Democrats?
With the exception of the civil rights acts of the 1960s, no programs are more hallowed in party mythology than Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security.
Are Democrats, after the "shellacking" of 2010, going to go home and tell their constituents they voted to cut Medicaid benefits?
Are they going to tell the old folks of the Greatest Generation and the Silent Generation and the retiring baby boomers that Medicare in the future will not be as generous as it has been in the past, that we are going to have to start rationing their health care?
The new Republican governors – Scott Walker in Wisconsin, John Kasich in Ohio, Chris Christie in New Jersey, Tom Corbett in Pennsylvania – all have resisted raising taxes, as has Andrew Cuomo, Democrat of New York, who enjoys remarkably high poll numbers for the times we live in.
The praise these governors are receiving, even when embattled, has also steeled the spine of congressional Republicans against any tax increase.
But if Democrats are not going to do even minor surgery on Medicare and Medicaid and Republicans are not going to raise taxes, there is no hope of big budget deal to cut a deficit now running at 11 percent of gross domestic product.
And that raises another question.
How long can the Federal Reserve continue financing these deficits?
China, choking on U.S. debt, is reportedly beginning to divest itself of U.S. bonds. Japan will need to sell U.S. bonds to get hard currency to repair the damage from the earthquake and tsunami. And the Fed is about to end its QE2 monthly purchases of $100 billion in U.S. bonds.
Where is the Fed going to borrow the $125 billion a month to finance this year's deficit of $1.65 trillion, and another of comparable size in 2012?
Bill Gross' Pimco, the world's largest bond fund, has sold all his U.S. bonds and begun to short U.S. debt. Pimco is betting that the value of U.S. Treasury bonds will begin to fall.
We may be about to enter a maelstrom.
No big budget deal is brokered. The deficit endures, and another looms in 2012. To finance them, the Fed borrows at the rate of $30 billion a week wherever it can.
But as countries begin to choke on U.S. debt, the market starts to dry up. To attract investors, the Fed must raise interest rates, which sends bond prices sinking and forces interest rates up across the economy.
With interest rates rising, gas prices rising and inflation rising, the squeeze is on, and there is talk of a double-dip recession.
And if that happens, Obama is toast. But, then, so are we.'
Consumers spend more, but on gas (Washington Post) [ Retail Sales Miss ExpectationsWall St. Cheat Sheet On Wednesday April 13, 2011, 9:40 am EDT 'The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for March, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $389.3 billion, an increase of 0.4 percent from the previous month, and 7.1 percent above March 2010. Analysts were expecting a rise of 0.5 percent...'
Where? The mall? If they can find one with stores … Drudgereport: Malls hit highest vacancy in 11 years... This is the grim economic reality http://albertpeia.com/grimreality.htm . A Trading System That Challenges the Efficient Market Hypothesis [ ...What parallel universe is McCurdy operating in? Even in the heyday of that so-called hypothesis, close examination of the data indicated that if you weren't timing the market you were, in a somewhat 'Charlie Sheenish' manner of speaking, duh! … losing! (my MBA Thesis, 1977, NYU GBA, Finance – which required study / mastery of such math intensive theory) Said 'hypothesis' wasn't true then and certainly isn't true today where complex computer-programming can and does artificially produce the various criteria / buy / sell / signals alluded to in the article (they're widely known / followed) creating the rigged / fraudulent trading game geared to maximized the 'churn-and-earn' commission profits (net negative in economic terms) and enabling the passing of 'those hot potatoes'/paper shares in a manner that resembles a game of musical chairs with those not in the loop winding up holding the bag (including pension funds, etc.); all the while funding those lavish lifesyles / over-compensation of the frauds on wall street along with the direct / indirect bribes inuring them from stigma and as well, insulating them from proper scrutiny and prosecution. Fundamentals, fundamental rational analysis has become virtually irrelevant to these now fraud-prone markets like never before in history facilitating frauds of magnitudes that have made the rationalization 'too big to fail' a byword... The frauds on wall street et als should be criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed. Dave's Daily 'If you can keep interest rates this low this long, its inevitable cheap financing can allow companies to start cobbling each other up. Further Ben's policies allow companies like IBM to sell bonds at 1% and buy back shares with the proceeds (total paper bubble-scam). POMO is occurring almost daily and Primary Dealers can buy back their shares and pay dividends with what essentially is taxpayer money-- … an especially great opportunity to sell / take profits while you still can since there's much worse to come! ]
Former fund manager charged (Washington Post) [ Joseph F. Skowron III accused of insider trading. Drudgereport: Senate panel slams Goldman in scathing crisis report... (Goldman clearly misled their clients and they misled Congress … referring this matter to the Justice Department and to the SEC)
Equity Valuations Are Forming the Second Biggest Bubble in U.S. History Kaspar 'Despite the terrible economic performance of the past ten years, equity valuations are the 2nd largest bubble in U.S. history... the cause and the potential ramifications of this are astounding.
Exhibit one: The cyclically-adjusted price-to-earnings ratio, or CAPE.
This is not a “fad” valuation metric. CAPE dates back to 1871, offering 140 years worth of data, during which time, the mean price-to-earnings ratio is 16.
According to Yale University’s Dr. Robert Shiller, the market is now 41% overvalued according to this valuation metric. The only time the markets have been more overvalued was a few brief months in 1929 and the tech bubble.
[chart http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2011/4/12/saupload_cape_thumb1.png ]
Exhibit 2: The Q ratio, which measures total market value compared to its replacement cost.
The Q-ratio data in the chart below dates back to 1900. According to the data, the markets have now surpassed the 1929 peak valuation by over 8%.
[chart http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2011/4/12/saupload_q_ratio_thumb1.png ]
… bubbles turn a believable story/trend into an overvaluation. In the 1700s during the South Sea Bubble...Railroading prospects induced a bubble in the late 1800s ... In the 1920s, a bubble … A similar life-changing invention – the Internet – swept the attention of investors in the 1990s ...
What is the story today? The prospect of inflation? High unemployment?
Exhibit 3: The gap between projected 12-month earnings against the 10-year average
... the market is stretching this reversion greater than 2000 and 2007!
[chart http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2011/4/12/saupload_gap_between_12_month_average_thumb1.png ]
... growth in earnings have been artificially manufactured...
· The change in accounting rules for the financial sector by FASB has generated massive “false” account profits beginning in 2009.
· The extended (and then further extended) unemployment benefits have kept an artificially higher demand for consumer consumption. As a result, the US government has artificially subsidized corporate profits.
· The billions saved through “free loading” by homeowners who have defaulted on their mortgages yet maintained their residence, thus living without a mortgage payment.
· The artificially suppressed interest rates.
So, not only do we have a valuation bubble, but the earnings on which the projections are based are non-sustaining... same overvaluation situation as a few years ago … nothing fixed ...'
Obama seeks spending cuts, taxes on wealthy (Washington Post) [ Too little, too late for 'wobama the b' (for b*** s***) ! After all, though contraindicated, he previously extended the war criminal, moron bush tax cuts to what is now realistically perceived as 'their base' (that top 1 percent). Wobama has no credibility whatsoever, wars and all. He's just plain done! Liberals worry Obama has given up ground (Washington Post) [ Worried? Given up ground? Are they kidding? Is this some parallel universe they're operating in? Come on! Wake up! Wobama's done! Finito! He's been and is an abject failure as president; both by what he's done as not promised and not done as promised, viz., perpetual wars and overspending, etc., and no prosecutions of the frauds on wall street, etc., respectively. He is a total failure and an embarrassment to the presidency as was his predecessor. He's totally incompetent with an innate predilection to 'zig when he should zag' … 'wobama the b' (for b*** s***) is pathetic! Quite simply, for wobama, it's too late! … Drudgereport: RASMUSSEN: President hits new low Taxpayers foot $850M bill for Wall St.’s pension fees NY Post | New York City taxpayers are helping to pay $850 million in Wall Street investment fees.
U.S. Deficit to Rise to Largest Among Major Economies, IMF Says The U.S. is set to have the largest budget deficit of major developed economies this year and should narrow it now rather than face tough adjustments in the next two years, the International Monetary Fund said.
Inflation, fueled by gas and food prices, adds to worry
White House warns of debt ‘Armageddon’
Drudgereport: Obama to Call for Higher Taxes...
DEFICIT ROCKETS 16% IN FIRST HALF OF YEAR...
Inflation Actually 'Near 10%'...
IMF: US 'lacks credibility' on debt...
'Stringent Austerity Measures' Needed...
BUDGET TRICKS, SLEIGHTS OF HAND IN BUDGET DEAL...
Conservatives' criticism growing...
Budget deal axes 'czars' -- who are already gone...] The president faces a rebellion on the left, with key groups concerned that he has let the GOP message of reducing government trump that of creating jobs.
GE Not Repaying Tax Refund; AP Duped by Phony Press Release
] In a stinging rebuke to Republican budget-cutters, Obama acknowledged that the debt must be tackled faster than he has previously proposed but rejected GOP calls to make fundamental changes to Medicare and Medicaid.
AT&T, T-Mobile file merger application (Washington Post) [ I believe the simplest test to be best here; viz., 'if att wants it, it's got to be anti-competitive'. Why? Because even the simplest tasks, ie., land / long lines, etc., are beyond the capability and competence of this 'can't do' , mob-infested jersey / bushland texas regressive company; hence, their need, their hankering for monopoly power. Of course, monopoly is ingrained in the history of att and telecommunications thrived and advanced on their breakup. Quite simply, att can't compete on a level playing field … it's their story! Merger a disconnect for consumers (Washington Post) [ Yeah! True enough! I had to drop my land line (att/sbc – jersey/bushland) which I kept for the public listing and which became disfunctional / unusable to the point where it was impacting my DSL line; both of which I dropped in favor of MagicJack (I recommend it) and Time Warner Cable / Internet (also better). Deal to combine AT&T, T-Mobile raises questions (AP) [Questions? Is that all? att / sbc is a horribly managed company that can't even do the simplest things well; ie., land lines and dsl thereby, my direct experience. We've seen this all before. When they can't do, they go monopoly bigger with disasterous results. This is an old story with a familiar ending. AP - AT&T's surprise announcement that it plans to acquire T-Mobile USA will force federal regulators to confront a difficult antitrust question: Can American consumers get good wireless service at a ... ] OPINION | Your choice for wireless service would get smaller should AT&T carry out its plan to buy T-Mobile USA. ] Firm confident it will win over regulators to its bid to buy T-Mobile USA, even as critics continue to bash the deal. Here's that other story of what's 'unsaid' being very costly to the nation : On NBC, the missing story about GE (Washington Post) [ Ya think! … Seriously though, this is as important a story as can be since these scenarios have been a significant problem for the pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt u.s. for quite some time... (0 taxes paid)'
] A call by lawmakers for a careful review of AT&T’s proposed acquisition of T-Mobile is really more code language for something else, analysts say. ]
French, British leaders meet about Libya (Washington Post) [ Wow! Talk about sounding like a plan ... and all this time we thought they already had done that. After all, they must conserve their resources; you know, that war-prone nato alliance comprised of members almost to a nation defacto bankrupt, striving to emulate 'lead war nation' america's defacto bankrupt status. ] The countries struggled Wednesday to come up with new tactics to topple Moammar Gaddafi without resorting to further Western military intervention.
Libya: Increased Airstrikes, Ground Troops, Contractors, Civilians Killed, Deadly DU Munitions – Can We Call This A War Yet? The globalist coalition refers to it as ‘kinetic military action’, yet as more civilians are killed in NATO bombings, and with experts adamant that deadly Depleted Uranium weapons are being used by Western forces, the conflict in Libya looks a hell of a lot like the occupations of Afghanistan and Iraq all over again.
‘Depleted uranium’s toxic legacy to poison Libya for 40 years’ Military experts are accusing coalition forces in Libya of using depleted uranium in their air strikes. The deadly substance can cause cancer and physical mutations in those who come into close contact with it.
63 percent of people killed in Iraq war were civilians: report Xinhua | U.S.-led wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have been causing huge civilian casualties.
West vs. China: A New Cold War Begins On Libyan Soil Patrick Henningsen | The question as to why US-led NATO forces are determined to engineer a regime change in Libya is now becoming clear.
United Nations Installs IMF Stooge in Ivory Coast Kurt Nimmo
White House threats on Wayne Madsen must be taken seriously Wayne Madsen Report | A source, connected to the White House, gave a warning stark in its directness: “They want to kill you.”
Roberts: Pentagon budget is the result of corruption Half a century ago, president Dwight Eisenhower issued a warning to the American nation about growing military industrial complexes being a threat to democracy, and now it seems as though Eisenhower’s warning has become reality. US is the modern world’s biggest military spender. Dr. Paul Craig Roberts, a former Reagan administration official and a columnist, shares his opinion.
Japan Gov’t says radiation is escaping from containment vessels that are not “totally” destroyed ”Even though some amount of radiation keeps leaking from reactors and their containment vessels, they are not totally destroyed and are functioning,” [Hidehiko Nishiyama, spokesman for Japan's nuclear agency]
Radioactive Seaweed Detected In Puget Sound Radiation leaked from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power complex in Japan has been detected in seaweed in Puget Sound, but researchers say there’s no need for alarm.
Retail Sales Miss ExpectationsWall St. Cheat Sheet On Wednesday April 13, 2011, 9:40 am EDT 'The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for March, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $389.3 billion, an increase of 0.4 percent from the previous month, and 7.1 percent above March 2010. Analysts were expecting a rise of 0.5 percent.
Total sales for the January through March 2011 period were up 8.1 percent from the same period a year ago. The January to February 2011 percent change was revised from +1.0 percent to +1.1 percent.
Retail trade sales were up 0.3 percent from February 2011, and 7.3 percent above last year. Gasoline stations sales were up 16.7 percent from March 2010 and nonstore retailers sales were up 12.4 percent from last year.
Obviously, inflating Oil (NYSE:USO) prices are adding to gross revenues for gasoline sales. So, although retail sales are up for the ninth month in a row, drilling down to the details shows a weakening trend. If we strip out gas station sales, retail sales were up a very small 0.1%.
Motor vehicles sales dropped 1.7%. Nevertheless, Toyota Motor Corporation (NYSE:TM) is up 1.3%, Ford Motor Company (NYSE:F) is up 0.4%, General Motors (NYSE:GM) is up 0.3%, and Honda Motor Company (NYSE:HMC) is up over 3%.'
chart http://wallstcheatsheet.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/March-Retail-Sales.png
Chain stores post increased sales (Washington Post) [ The mall? If they can find one with stores … Drudgereport: Malls hit highest vacancy in 11 years... Reality paints a different picture ... You're going to see some very large bankruptcies / foreclosures soon … This is the grim economic reality [ http://albertpeia.com/grimreality.htm . A Trading System That Challenges the Efficient Market Hypothesis [ I haven't included the body of this article because it's not worth your time. What parallel universe is McCurdy operating in? Even in the heyday of that so-called hypothesis, close examination of the data indicated that if you weren't timing the market you were, in a somewhat 'Charlie Sheenish' manner of speaking, duh! … losing! (my MBA Thesis, 1977, NYU GBA, Finance – which required study / mastery of such math intensive theory which wasn't for the faint of heart.) Said 'hypothesis' wasn't true then and certainly isn't true today where complex computer-programming can and does artificially produce the various criteria / buy / sell / signals alluded to in the article (they're widely known / followed) creating the rigged / fraudulent trading game geared to maximized the 'churn-and-earn' commission profits (net negative in economic terms) and enabling the passing of 'those hot potatoes'/paper shares in a manner that resembles a game of musical chairs with those not in the loop winding up holding the bag (including pension funds, etc.); all the while funding those lavish lifesyles / over-compensation of the frauds on wall street along with the direct / indirect bribes inuring them from stigma and as well, insulating them from proper scrutiny and prosecution. Fundamentals, fundamental rational analysis has become virtually irrelevant to these now fraud-prone markets like never before in history facilitating frauds of magnitudes that have made the rationalization 'too big to fail' a byword of pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt american failed finance; which frauds continue unabated, unprosecuted even as you read these words. In retrospect, one might say of such theory, in reality, that famed snoopy(ish - the dog) aphorism, 'baffling them with b*** s*** '. The frauds on wall street et als should be criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed. Dave's Daily 'If you can keep interest rates this low this long, its inevitable cheap financing can allow companies to start cobbling each other up. Further Ben's policies allow companies like IBM to sell bonds at 1% and buy back shares with the proceeds (total paper bubble-scam). POMO is occurring almost daily and Primary Dealers can buy back their shares and pay dividends with what essentially is taxpayer money-- … an especially great opportunity to sell / take profits while you still can since there's much worse to come! ]
Liberals worry Obama has given up ground (Washington Post) [ Worried? Given up ground? Are they kidding? Is this some parallel universe they're operating in? Come on! Wake up! Wobama's done! Finito! He's been and is an abject failure as president; both by what he's done as not promised and not done as promised, viz., perpetual wars and overspending, etc., and no prosecutions of the frauds on wall street, etc., respectively. He is a total failure and an embarrassment to the presidency as was his predecessor. He's totally incompetent with an innate predilection to 'zig when he should zag' … 'wobama the b' (for b*** s***) is pathetic! Quite simply, for wobama, it's too late! … Drudgereport: RASMUSSEN: President hits new low Taxpayers foot $850M bill for Wall St.’s pension fees NY Post | New York City taxpayers are helping to pay $850 million in Wall Street investment fees.
U.S. Deficit to Rise to Largest Among Major Economies, IMF Says The U.S. is set to have the largest budget deficit of major developed economies this year and should narrow it now rather than face tough adjustments in the next two years, the International Monetary Fund said.
Inflation, fueled by gas and food prices, adds to worry
White House warns of debt ‘Armageddon’
Drudgereport: Obama to Call for Higher Taxes...
DEFICIT ROCKETS 16% IN FIRST HALF OF YEAR...
Inflation Actually 'Near 10%'...
IMF: US 'lacks credibility' on debt...
'Stringent Austerity Measures' Needed...
BUDGET TRICKS, SLEIGHTS OF HAND IN BUDGET DEAL...
Conservatives' criticism growing...
Budget deal axes 'czars' -- who are already gone...] The president faces a rebellion on the left, with key groups concerned that he has let the GOP message of reducing government trump that of creating jobs.
GE Not Repaying Tax Refund; AP Duped by Phony Press Release
CIA’s post-9/11 brain drain (Washington Post) [ Wow! Talk about the most positive 'take' (figuratively and literally) on what's become a typical pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt american modus operandi in sucking on the bureaucratic teet till dry (yes, drying up at break-speed). The unfortunate incorrect presumption by inference is that brain-drain implies some of value leaving the ranks of the CIA to bring their 'uplifting talents' / value to the ranks of non-government, private sector, etc.. Important as this flow of so-called seasoned personnel may be (I especially liked the Washington Post's exposé on the ubiquity of top-level security clearances in the Washington Metro area), still ultimately a cost borne by taxpayers, I reasonably question their 'value' and the word 'brain' implying intelligent. From Iraq, to more current nation-bankrupting debacles, ie., Afghanistan, etc., to strategies concerning China (the transfers), one may reasonably lump them in the latter category according to that axiom, 'those who can, do' … ‘those who can't, work for the u.s. government or are contractors for the u.s. government’. So, I must say, the drains of so-called brains in the cia are, at the least, grossly exaggerated and I'd say, no loss at all. After all, look at the nation, domestically / internationally, including 9/11.
Pakistan Tells U.S. to Halt Drones 6 year old girl groped then drug tested by TSA You Tube War crime? U.S. Troops Fire on Iraqi Detainees (Video) Aaron Dykes IRS to increase “pre-crime” enforcement Sovereign Man Libya: Increased Airstrikes, Ground Troops, Contractors, Civilians Killed, Deadly DU Munitions – Can We Call This A War Yet? ] Private firms have hired scores of top officers, partly to gain access to intelligence contracting.
Equity Valuations Are Forming the Second Biggest Bubble in U.S. History Kaspar [ Give this man a cigar ... he gets it right! ] Originally Posted on GoldShark.com 'Despite the terrible economic performance of the past ten years (both in terms of the markets and the general economy), equity valuations are now approaching the second largest bubble in United States history, surpassed only by the technology bubble.
Both the cause and the potential ramifications of this development are astounding.
Exhibit one: The cyclically-adjusted price-to-earnings ratio, or CAPE.
This is not a “fad” valuation metric. CAPE dates back to 1871, offering 140 years worth of data, during which time, the mean price-to-earnings ratio is 16.
According to Yale University’s Dr. Robert Shiller, the market is now 41% overvalued according to this valuation metric. The only time the markets have been more overvalued was a few brief months in 1929 and the tech bubble.
[chart http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2011/4/12/saupload_cape_thumb1.png ]
Exhibit 2: The Q ratio, which measures total market value compared to its replacement cost.
The Q-ratio data in the chart below dates back to 1900. According to the data, the markets have now surpassed the 1929 peak valuation by over 8%. In United States History, only the tech bubble was bigger than what we are experiencing today.
[chart http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2011/4/12/saupload_q_ratio_thumb1.png ]
Historically, bubbles turn a believable story and a trend into an overvaluation. In the 1700s during the South Sea Bubble, the mania driving the bubble was the seemingly endless wealth and prosperity of the New World. Railroading prospects induced a bubble in the late 1800s as America became connected from the east coast to the west coast. In the 1920s, a bubble formed on belief in the newly formed League of Nations (world peace), and more importantly, the society-changing impact of the automobile.
A similar life-changing invention – the Internet – swept the attention of investors in the 1990s as the prospect of a virtual marketplace would forever globalize commerce. Every bubble has a story, whether it be tulips or inventions or some other craze.
What is the story today? The prospect of inflation? High unemployment?
Exhibit 3: The gap between projected 12-month earnings against the 10-year average. (Two notes: a. the chart from Bloomberg fails to insert the word ‘projected’; Robert Shiller references this chart in this Bloomberg article. b. the 10-year average is the cyclically adjusted price to earnings ratio).
Considering the power of mean reversion, the market is stretching this reversion greater than 2000 and 2007!
[chart http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2011/4/12/saupload_gap_between_12_month_average_thumb1.png ]
Another question. Could the growth in earnings have been artificially manufactured?
To quote Elizabeth Barrett Browning: “Let me count the ways.”
· The change in accounting rules for the financial sector by FASB has generated massive “false” account profits beginning in 2009.
· The extended (and then further extended) unemployment benefits have kept an artificially higher demand for consumer consumption. As a result, the US government has artificially subsidized corporate profits.
· The billions saved through “free loading” by homeowners who have defaulted on their mortgages yet maintained their residence, thus living without a mortgage payment.
· The artificially suppressed interest rates.
So, not only do we have a valuation bubble, but the earnings on which the projections are based are non-sustaining, and non-market driven. Brilliant. Again, I am left wondering how it is possible to find ourselves in the same overvaluation situation as a few years ago especially considering nothing has been resolved to actually fix the world’s economic system.
A parting thought: according to research conducted by the Duke University Medical Center, it would seem that even monkeys are capable of learning from their mistakes. Why can’t we?'
World financial leaders meet (Washington Post) [ Haven't they done enough damage? The Negative Volatility Regime: The Market's Disconnect From Global Turmoil The Hard Trade ( A very interesting and important read / perspective; but I believe he is far too kind, gentle, empathetic, and overly eager to euphemistically explain the criminal fraud that continues even as I write. Indeed, his explanation may fit for the more 'passive' market participants as they watch these frauds unfold in the face of dire, contraindicated facts and circumstances. Yet he ignores the reality in that we are talking about literally the criminally insane on wall street. Forget not that huge amounts of money, in the trillions, have been scammed through fraudulent means, ignoring reality, and with wink and nod embracing the convenient, glaringly inaposite non-truth. His explanation is analogous to trying posit some rationale to the serial killer as such confronts a new victim. Moreover, I also believe he ignores the role of modern-day technology, viz., complex computer programming in facilitating these frauds, high-frequency churn-and-earn trading (of no economic benefit in net real terms), the ease of which accomplished is too tempting for these predisposed criminals to resist. I truly believe that with the 'profit' / fraudulent gains taken out of the 'equation' through, ie., prosecution, fines, jail, disgorgement, etc., you'd be less likely (though not completely, given the nature of criminal insanity) to see such disconnect from those 'inconvenient truths' others of us know as reality. That said, as elsewhere set forth on this website, the psychological factor is among the factors considered when analyzing securities, others of which include the economy, growth of earnings, quality of earnings, etc.. But, make no mistake, they are greedy, criminally insane, and do it for the money ( in contravention of the rights of others as in, ie., anti-social personality disorder, among other psychological afflictions ). ] ' For months I have been frustrated and surprised by the action of the markets in the face of continued turmoil. In different contexts, I’ve used terms such as "disconnected" or "bifurcated" where there seems to be a total discontinuity between the facts and the market actions... he starts with behavioral finance and defines the normalcy bias:
Normalcy Bias and Crisis: A quirk of the human condition is for the mind to desire normalcy so intensely as to consciously or subconsciously disregard knowledge that is disruptive to a pre-conditioned reality. This phenomenon is an important part of crisis management and market psychology. The consequence of a normalcy bias is that warning signs of a potential crisis go unnoticed or are interpreted optimistically...'
When a crisis occurs people are so overwhelmed by events inconsistent with a desired reality they lose their ability to make decisions. Researchers believe when the mind encounters an entirely new experience or event it attempts to match that reality to relevant experiences from the past. If there are no matching experiences the mind enters into a kind of feedback loop resulting in passivity. This lack of action as a response to risk is called negative panic1 and it culminates in a dangerous inability to act assertively in crisis. In essence, the psyche struggles to come to terms with what is really happening. Paralysis follows. ( Interestingly, I believe this to be a more apt description of the Japanese reaction in this earthquake / tsunami induced nuclear crisis. )
He then goes on to discuss how the normalcy bias can lead investors to ignore looming threats, which in turn can lead to "a cancellation of short-term volatility risk premium that should otherwise exist." This new Negative Volatility Regime is defined by:
1. Large declines in spot volatility: The past nine months have shown an unusually high number of large declines in spot volatility (realized and implied) that are of a much higher magnitude and length than what has been observed historically. As a result of these large declines, the VIX index and short-term realized volatility are below historic averages;
2. Abnormally steep volatility curve: The manifestation of an abnormally steep volatility curve (as a % of spot volatility) with a linear shape that more closely resembles a glacial cliff as opposed to the more traditional desert plateau (see chart);
3. Underperformance of Variance Hedges: Low volatility-of-volatility on the back of the variance term-structure results in the underperformance of out-of-the-money options and variance as a hedge against market declines;
4. High Volatility Skew: High levels of volatility skew for far out-of-the-money options showing increased likelihood of large declines in equity prices.
The article has a detailed discussion and great graphs representing the shape of the volatility structure. The full report can be accessed at: Artemis Q1 2011_Is Volatility Broken. (It is posted with permission.)'
Cottarelli: U.S. needs ‘fiscal adjustment’ (Washington Post) I'd call this an understatement … pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt america needs far more than a 'fiscal adjustment' … How 'bout 'complete makeover' ... Gas prices fuel worries about recovery (Washington Post) More money spent at the pump means less to spend elsewhere.
[ If only gas prices were the only reasons for concern regarding the so-called recovery:
Weisenthal On Tuesday April 12, 2011, 1:02 pm EDT
‘Dear investors.You’ve had an amazing run since March 2009.
Maybe it’s time to get a little nervous. In addition to all kinds of dicey headlines — Japan (NYSE:EWJ), the Mideast, etc. –the economic data is starting to add up, and look like a slowdown.
You can see it in business confidence, headline GDP, and certain aspects of employment. Some previously hot industries are clearly starting to fade.
Case Shiller Is Showing The Housing Double Dip Getting Worse
Small Business Confidence Is Suddenly Turning Lower
Image: NFIB
Q1 GDP estimates have been getting slashed
Image: Wikimedia Commons
After starting off at 4%, estimates for GDP are now in some cases below 4%.
Durable goods have been weak Las Vegas gaming revenue has suddenly turned south again.
Image: WilWheaton on flickr
Oil prices have pushed the economy to the breaking point
http://static4.businessinsider.com/image/4da466804bd7c84422020000-547/markets-are-stalling-out.jpg
Markets are stalling out The age of cheap money is going away
With inflation on the rise, basically everything things QE2 is toast.
Austerity warnings from the UK
Image: Twitpic
In London, where fiscal tightening is further along than here, it’s having a clear effect on consumer spending. That’s coming to the US, too.’
U.S. trade deficit narrows in Feb. (Washington Post) [ This is truly hard to believe … maybe they're counting american products made in China with ie., Chinese, etc., components and shipped back here for a name slapped on the package before resale … see Dell, infra ... More Americans work for the government than in manufacturing, farming, fishing, forestry, mining and utilities combined Today in America there are nearly twice as many people working for the government (22.5 million) than in all of manufacturing (11.5 million). ] A drop in U.S. imports from China and elsewhere helped narrow the trade deficit in January.
Yield Curve Appears to Be Flattening. Is Recession on the Way? The Hard Trade 'Slowly and quietly, spreads of the 2-10 year Treasuries decided not to blow out and instead have started coming back. What does it mean that in a world of increasing rates, we’re getting a flattening yield curve?
Here’s the 10 year yield (click to enlarge):
http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2011/3/30/saupload_10yryld.png
Edging up slightly recently, and certainly not contracting. On the flip side, look at the 2-10 spread (click to enlarge):
http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2011/3/30/saupload_2_10_yr.png
A few short months ago, hyper-inflationists were warning that this spread, which hit high after high, would blow out as inflation took hold, became rampant, and we’d be back to the middle ages. I was never in that camp, and while we see some inflationary pressures building, I think the main risk remains deflation as real estate, unemployment, etc. will drag down the consumer.
Regardless, the 2-10 spread has come back from the brink and the curve is now flattening. I don’t know which way we go from here, but my analysis is still that rates are headed higher on an absolute level and the flattening yield curve supports my view that a recession or worse could be on the way. It’s a bad combination to have higher rates, deflation of stores of wealth, and a government with no ability to provide future fiscal and monetary stimulus.'
Evacuees struggle to leave shelters Toshiba proposes to scrap 4 nuke reactors at Fukushima plant [ Am I missing something here … some failed attempt at (Japanese) humor … Wow! … remind me not to buy a Toshiba computer [ I’ve also just eliminated dell and apple’s just not worth it (way over-priced)( I previously eliminated SONY Vaio – In 2000 it was probably more of a windows millennium problem but owing to SONY ‘proprietary’ I wasn’t even able to install new operating system ) And, on top of the viral barrage and typical windows problems, I had some problems with the dell, and when I opened the 'case', though not displayed on the outside, this 'dell' computer as displayed in the inside was 'made in china'. With few exceptions, so were the components. So much for the 'american' company … I think the same to be true of apple, etc.. Then quite some time ago, a compaq (now owned by hp) and more recently a hewlett packard, respectively were eliminated – computers didn’t even work – how pathetic. ]. The only explanation is that the radiation must be eating at their brains. Was this proposal ever in doubt … even necessary? I’m at a loss for words! I really am! ] TOKYO, April 8 (Xinhua) -- Toshiba Corp. submitted a proposal to Tokyo Electric Power Co. (TEPCO) and the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) to decommission four troubled reactors at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant.
Taxpayers foot $850M bill for Wall St.’s pension fees NY Post
Bernanke: Middle Class Murderer Max Keiser and co-host, Stacy Herbert, report on the murderer of the middle class and how the wealth effect equals the poverty effect.
Sideways Action Boots S&P 500 Below 50 Day Moving Average
Survey: Big Money Managers Preparing For Inflation, Rise In Oil
March Retail Sales Show a Slight Decline in Real Terms
Why is the Federal Reserve giving $220 million in bailout money to two wives of Morgan Stanley bigwigs? Matt Taibbi | America has two national budgets, one official, one unofficial.
Big banks are government-backed: Fed’s Hoenig Reuters | Big banks like BoA and Citigroup should be reclassified as government-sponsored entities and have their activities restricted.
Ken Salazar: GOP has ‘amnesia’ about oil spill Politico | Interior Secretary Ken Salazar said Tuesday that Republicans have a “sense of amnesia” about last year’s Gulf of Mexico spill.
GE Says Report on Returning $3.2 Billion to Treasury a Hoax General Electric Co. (GE) refuted a statement claiming the company would return a “$3.2 billion tax refund” for 2010, following criticism of its tax rates and policies.
Amid global meltdowns, what is the half life of the U.S. government’s fiscal solvency? Thanks to the recent (and laughable) “largest annual spending cut in history” announced by Obama and Boehner, it is now abundantly evident that the U.S. government is headed toward a complete economic meltdown that will make Fukushima look chilly by comparison.
National / World
63 percent of people killed in Iraq war were civilians: report Xinhua | U.S.-led wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have been causing huge civilian casualties.
Busted: TSA lied about promise to not pat-down children Aaron Dykes | TSA has defended the groping of 6 year-old girl, saying it followed policy. Yet in Nov. 2010, TSA vowed no ‘enhanced’ pat-downs for children.
West vs. China: A New Cold War Begins On Libyan Soil Patrick Henningsen | The question as to why US-led NATO forces are determined to engineer a regime change in Libya is now becoming clear.
Parents Threatened by TSA Before 6 Year Old was Groped, Girl then Broke Down in Tears Steve Watson | The parents of a six year old girl who was subjected to an enhanced pat-down at the hands of the TSA appeared confused and disturbed.
United Nations Installs IMF Stooge in Ivory Coast Kurt Nimmo | Globalist control returns to the former French colony.
White House threats on Wayne Madsen must be taken seriously Wayne Madsen Report | A source, connected to the White House, gave a warning stark in its directness: “They want to kill you.”
Roberts: Pentagon budget is the result of corruption Half a century ago, president Dwight Eisenhower issued a warning to the American nation about growing military industrial complexes being a threat to democracy, and now it seems as though Eisenhower’s warning has become reality. US is the modern world’s biggest military spender. Dr. Paul Craig Roberts, a former Reagan administration official and a columnist, shares his opinion on RT.
‘Depleted uranium’s toxic legacy to poison Libya for 40 years’ Military experts are accusing coalition forces in Libya of using depleted uranium in their air strikes. The deadly substance can cause cancer and physical mutations in those who come into close contact with it.
Japan Gov’t says radiation is escaping from containment vessels that are not “totally” destroyed ”Even though some amount of radiation keeps leaking from reactors and their containment vessels, they are not totally destroyed and are functioning,” [Hidehiko Nishiyama, a spokesman for Japan's nuclear agency] said. …
Radioactive Seaweed Detected In Puget Sound Radiation leaked from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power complex in Japan has been detected in seaweed in Puget Sound, but researchers say there’s no need for alarm.
Congress once again trying to push unconstitutional internet sales taxes Republican Sen. Michael Enzi of Wyoming first tried it and failed in 2007, and now he and Democrat Sen. Dick Durbin from Illinois are together trying it again.
Brave New World the third most censored book in America Aldous Huxley’s dystopian novel Brave New World placed third in the American Library Association’s (ALA) Top Ten List of the Most Frequently Challenged Books of 2010.
Drudgereport: Tiny Tim (geithner): YOU WILL GIVE ME MORE MONEY
OBAMA CALLS NEW TAXES 'SPENDING REDUCTIONS IN TAX CODE'...
RYAN: 'Dramatically inaccurate,' 'hopelessly inadequate'...
CANTOR: Raising taxes 'is not the answer'...
Obama's Support Among Poor Drops to All-time Low...
Left's angst grows over president's 'shift to center'...
Pentagon Warns Obama Against Deeper Defense Cuts ... (And where is it going to come from ... I've said before, and it's still true today, that we've already had in pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt, war crimes nation america a defacto coup d'etat) ...
RISE OF NEW WORLD POWER[WITHOUT USA]...
SHOCK: CBO Says Budget Deal Will Cut Spending by Only $352 Million...
Senate panel slams Goldman in scathing crisis report... (...Goldman clearly misled their clients and they misled Congress … referring this matter to the Justice Department and to the SEC … )
CHICAGOLAND: Blago Calls Out Rahm... ..."If the government has their way, my lawyers cannot ask questions about the last conversation I had less than 10 hours before I was arrested, with my deputy governor, when I told him my chief of staff told me, that Rahm Emanuel said that pending Barack Obama's approval, he agreed to be the go-between between me and [Illinois House Speaker] Mike Madigan [and] I would appoint Madigan's daughter the senator in exchange for passing a public works bill that would put thousands of people to work, healthcare expansion for working families so they can afford the high cost of seeing a doctor, and a written promise -- a guarantee in writing -- not to raise income taxes on the people of Illinois."He held a similar press event about a year ago, just prior to the start of his first trial."I'm here today to issue a challenge," a visibly upset Blagojevich said last April 20. "I challenge Mr. Fitzgerald. Why don't you show up in court tomorrow and explain to everybody. Explain to the whole world. Why you don't want those tapes that you made played in court. I'll be in court tomorrow. I hope you're man enough to be in court too."Blagojevich has kept a low profile in recent months, making the timing of his statement curious. Recall that a little more than a year ago, he went on Bill O'Reilly's Fox program and danced around a question as to whether Obama or Rahm Emanuel had any involvement in the case to sell a U.S. Senate seat. Source: http://www.nbcchicago.com/blogs/ward-room/blagojevich-press-conference-119785689.html?12#ixzz1JSctCUNQ'
Liberals worry Obama has given up ground (Washington Post) [ Worried? Given up ground? Are they kidding? Is this some parallel universe they're operating in? Come on! Wake up! Wobama's done! Finito! He's been and is an abject failure as president; both by what he's done as not promised and not done as promised, viz., perpetual wars and overspending, etc., and no prosecutions of the frauds on wall street, etc., respectively. He is a total failure and an embarrassment to the presidency as was his predecessor. He's totally incompetent with an innate predilection to 'zig when he should zag' … 'wobama the b' (for b*** s***) is pathetic! Quite simply, for wobama, it's too late! … Drudgereport: RASMUSSEN: President hits new low Taxpayers foot $850M bill for Wall St.’s pension fees NY Post | New York City taxpayers are helping to pay $850 million in Wall Street investment fees.
Stiglitz, Soros, Summers try to remake global economy RT | George Soros brought together the economic elite to take apart and remake world finance.
Iceland rejects hostile takeover attempt in national referendum John Stratton | Iceland is the only country where the people have been allowed to have a say in the matter.
U.S. Deficit to Rise to Largest Among Major Economies, IMF Says The U.S. is set to have the largest budget deficit of major developed economies this year and should narrow it now rather than face tough adjustments in the next two years, the International Monetary Fund said.
Inflation, fueled by gas and food prices, adds to worry
White House warns of debt ‘Armageddon’
Drudgereport: Obama to Call for Higher Taxes...
DEFICIT ROCKETS 16% IN FIRST HALF OF YEAR...
Inflation Actually 'Near 10%'...
IMF: US 'lacks credibility' on debt...
'Stringent Austerity Measures' Needed...
BUDGET TRICKS, SLEIGHTS OF HAND IN BUDGET DEAL...
Conservatives' criticism growing...
Budget deal axes 'czars' -- who are already gone...] The president faces a rebellion on the left, with key groups concerned that he has let the GOP message of reducing government trump that of creating jobs.
CIA’s post-9/11 brain drain (Washington Post) [ Wow! Talk about the most positive 'take' (figuratively and literally) on what's become a typical pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt american modus operandi in sucking on the bureaucratic teet till dry (yes, drying up at break-speed). The unfortunate incorrect presumption by inference is that brain-drain implies some of value leaving the ranks of the CIA to bring their 'uplifting talents' / value to the ranks of non-government, private sector, etc.. Important as this flow of so-called seasoned personnel may be (I especially liked the Washington Post's expose on the ubiquity of top-level security clearances in the Washington Metro area), still ultimately a cost borne by taxpayers, I reasonably question their 'value' and the word 'brain' implying intelligent. From Iraq, to more current nation-bankrupting debacles, ie., Afghanistan, etc., to strategies concerning China (the transfers), one may reasonably lump them in the latter category according to that axiom, 'those who can, do' … those who can't, work for the u.s. government or are contractors for the u.s. government. So, I must say, the drains of so-called brains in the cia are, at the least, grossly exaggerated and I'd say, no loss at all. After all, look at the nation, domestically / internationally, including 9/11.
Pakistan Tells U.S. to Halt Drones Pakistan has privately demanded the Central Intelligence Agency suspend drone strikes against militants on its territory, one of the U.S.’s most effective weapons against al Qaeda and Taliban leaders, officials said.
6 year old girl groped then drug tested by TSA You Tube | Disturbing video shows the TSA groping a very young girl.
War crime? U.S. Troops Fire on Iraqi Detainees (Video) Aaron Dykes | Shocking video has surfaced from 2005 of U.S. troops firing on captive Iraqi detainees after a riot.
IRS to increase “pre-crime” enforcement Sovereign Man | Did you ever see Minority Report?
Libya: Increased Airstrikes, Ground Troops, Contractors, Civilians Killed, Deadly DU Munitions – Can We Call This A War Yet? The globalist coalition refers to it as ‘kinetic military action’, yet as more civilians are killed in NATO bombings, and with experts adamant that deadly Depleted Uranium weapons are being used by Western forces, the conflict in Libya looks a hell of a lot like the occupations of Afghanistan and Iraq all over again. ] Private firms have hired scores of top officers, partly to gain access to intelligence contracting.
Equity Valuations Are Forming the Second Biggest Bubble in U.S. History Kaspar [ Give this man a cigar ... he gets it right! ] Originally Posted on GoldShark.com 'Despite the terrible economic performance of the past ten years (both in terms of the markets and the general economy), equity valuations are now approaching the second largest bubble in United States history, surpassed only by the technology bubble.
Both the cause and the potential ramifications of this development are astounding.
Exhibit one: The cyclically-adjusted price-to-earnings ratio, or CAPE.
This is not a “fad” valuation metric. CAPE dates back to 1871, offering 140 years worth of data, during which time, the mean price-to-earnings ratio is 16.
According to Yale University’s Dr. Robert Shiller, the market is now 41% overvalued according to this valuation metric. The only time the markets have been more overvalued was a few brief months in 1929 and the tech bubble.
[chart http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2011/4/12/saupload_cape_thumb1.png ]
Exhibit 2: The Q ratio, which measures total market value compared to its replacement cost.
The Q-ratio data in the chart below dates back to 1900. According to the data, the markets have now surpassed the 1929 peak valuation by over 8%. In United States History, only the tech bubble was bigger than what we are experiencing today.
[chart http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2011/4/12/saupload_q_ratio_thumb1.png ]
Historically, bubbles turn a believable story and a trend into an overvaluation. In the 1700s during the South Sea Bubble, the mania driving the bubble was the seemingly endless wealth and prosperity of the New World. Railroading prospects induced a bubble in the late 1800s as America became connected from the east coast to the west coast. In the 1920s, a bubble formed on belief in the newly formed League of Nations (world peace), and more importantly, the society-changing impact of the automobile.
A similar life-changing invention – the Internet – swept the attention of investors in the 1990s as the prospect of a virtual marketplace would forever globalize commerce. Every bubble has a story, whether it be tulips or inventions or some other craze.
What is the story today? The prospect of inflation? High unemployment?
Exhibit 3: The gap between projected 12-month earnings against the 10-year average. (Two notes: a. the chart from Bloomberg fails to insert the word ‘projected’; Robert Shiller references this chart in this Bloomberg article. b. the 10-year average is the cyclically adjusted price to earnings ratio).
Considering the power of mean reversion, the market is stretching this reversion greater than 2000 and 2007!
[chart http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2011/4/12/saupload_gap_between_12_month_average_thumb1.png ]
Another question. Could the growth in earnings have been artificially manufactured?
To quote Elizabeth Barrett Browning: “Let me count the ways.”
· The change in accounting rules for the financial sector by FASB has generated massive “false” account profits beginning in 2009.
· The extended (and then further extended) unemployment benefits have kept an artificially higher demand for consumer consumption. As a result, the US government has artificially subsidized corporate profits.
· The billions saved through “free loading” by homeowners who have defaulted on their mortgages yet maintained their residence, thus living without a mortgage payment.
· The artificially suppressed interest rates.
So, not only do we have a valuation bubble, but the earnings on which the projections are based are non-sustaining, and non-market driven. Brilliant. Again, I am left wondering how it is possible to find ourselves in the same overvaluation situation as a few years ago especially considering nothing has been resolved to actually fix the world’s economic system.
A parting thought: according to research conducted by the Duke University Medical Center, it would seem that even monkeys are capable of learning from their mistakes. Why can’t we?'
World financial leaders meet (Washington Post) [ Haven't they done enough damage? The Negative Volatility Regime: The Market's Disconnect From Global Turmoil The Hard Trade ( A very interesting and important read / perspective; but I believe he is far too kind, gentle, empathetic, and overly eager to euphemistically explain the criminal fraud that continues even as I write. Indeed, his explanation may fit for the more 'passive' market participants as they watch these frauds unfold in the face of dire, contraindicated facts and circumstances. Yet he ignores the reality in that we are talking about literally the criminally insane on wall street. Forget not that huge amounts of money, in the trillions, have been scammed through fraudulent means, ignoring reality, and with wink and nod embracing the convenient, glaringly inaposite non-truth. His explanation is analogous to trying posit some rationale to the serial killer as such confronts a new victim. Moreover, I also believe he ignores the role of modern-day technology, viz., complex computer programming in facilitating these frauds, high-frequency churn-and-earn trading (of no economic benefit in net real terms), the ease of which accomplished is too tempting for these predisposed criminals to resist. I truly believe that with the 'profit' / fraudulent gains taken out of the 'equation' through, ie., prosecution, fines, jail, disgorgement, etc., you'd be less likely (though not completely, given the nature of criminal insanity) to see such disconnect from those 'inconvenient truths' others of us know as reality. That said, as elsewhere set forth on this website, the psychological factor is among the factors considered when analyzing securities, others of which include the economy, growth of earnings, quality of earnings, etc.. But, make no mistake, they are greedy, criminally insane, and do it for the money ( in contravention of the rights of others as in, ie., anti-social personality disorder, among other psychological afflictions ). ] ' For months I have been frustrated and surprised by the action of the markets in the face of continued turmoil. In different contexts, I’ve used terms such as "disconnected" or "bifurcated" where there seems to be a total discontinuity between the facts and the market actions... he starts with behavioral finance and defines the normalcy bias:
Normalcy Bias and Crisis: A quirk of the human condition is for the mind to desire normalcy so intensely as to consciously or subconsciously disregard knowledge that is disruptive to a pre-conditioned reality. This phenomenon is an important part of crisis management and market psychology. The consequence of a normalcy bias is that warning signs of a potential crisis go unnoticed or are interpreted optimistically...'
When a crisis occurs people are so overwhelmed by events inconsistent with a desired reality they lose their ability to make decisions. Researchers believe when the mind encounters an entirely new experience or event it attempts to match that reality to relevant experiences from the past. If there are no matching experiences the mind enters into a kind of feedback loop resulting in passivity. This lack of action as a response to risk is called negative panic1 and it culminates in a dangerous inability to act assertively in crisis. In essence, the psyche struggles to come to terms with what is really happening. Paralysis follows. ( Interestingly, I believe this to be a more apt description of the Japanese reaction in this earthquake / tsunami induced nuclear crisis. )
He then goes on to discuss how the normalcy bias can lead investors to ignore looming threats, which in turn can lead to "a cancellation of short-term volatility risk premium that should otherwise exist." This new Negative Volatility Regime is defined by:
1. Large declines in spot volatility: The past nine months have shown an unusually high number of large declines in spot volatility (realized and implied) that are of a much higher magnitude and length than what has been observed historically. As a result of these large declines, the VIX index and short-term realized volatility are below historic averages;
2. Abnormally steep volatility curve: The manifestation of an abnormally steep volatility curve (as a % of spot volatility) with a linear shape that more closely resembles a glacial cliff as opposed to the more traditional desert plateau (see chart);
3. Underperformance of Variance Hedges: Low volatility-of-volatility on the back of the variance term-structure results in the underperformance of out-of-the-money options and variance as a hedge against market declines;
4. High Volatility Skew: High levels of volatility skew for far out-of-the-money options showing increased likelihood of large declines in equity prices.
The article has a detailed discussion and great graphs representing the shape of the volatility structure. The full report can be accessed at: Artemis Q1 2011_Is Volatility Broken. (It is posted with permission.)'
Cottarelli: U.S. needs ‘fiscal adjustment’ (Washington Post) I'd call this an understatement … pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt america needs far more than a 'fiscal adjustment' … How 'bout 'complete makeover' ... Gas prices fuel worries about recovery (Washington Post) More money spent at the pump means less to spend elsewhere.
[ If only gas prices were the only reasons for concern regarding the so-called recovery:
Weisenthal On Tuesday April 12, 2011, 1:02 pm EDT
‘Dear investors.You’ve had an amazing run since March 2009.
Maybe it’s time to get a little nervous. In addition to all kinds of dicey headlines — Japan (NYSE:EWJ), the Mideast, etc. –the economic data is starting to add up, and look like a slowdown.
You can see it in business confidence, headline GDP, and certain aspects of employment. Some previously hot industries are clearly starting to fade.
Case Shiller Is Showing The Housing Double Dip Getting Worse
Small Business Confidence Is Suddenly Turning Lower
Image: NFIB
Q1 GDP estimates have been getting slashed
Image: Wikimedia Commons
After starting off at 4%, estimates for GDP are now in some cases below 4%.
Durable goods have been weak Las Vegas gaming revenue has suddenly turned south again.
Image: WilWheaton on flickr
Oil prices have pushed the economy to the breaking point
http://static4.businessinsider.com/image/4da466804bd7c84422020000-547/markets-are-stalling-out.jpg
Markets are stalling out The age of cheap money is going away
With inflation on the rise, basically everything things QE2 is toast.
Austerity warnings from the UK
Image: Twitpic
In London, where fiscal tightening is further along than here, it’s having a clear effect on consumer spending. That’s coming to the US, too.’
U.S. trade deficit narrows in Feb. (Washington Post) [ This is truly hard to believe … maybe they're counting american products made in China with ie., Chinese, etc., components and shipped back here for a name slapped on the package before resale … see Dell, infra ... More Americans work for the government than in manufacturing, farming, fishing, forestry, mining and utilities combined Today in America there are nearly twice as many people working for the government (22.5 million) than in all of manufacturing (11.5 million). ] A drop in U.S. imports from China and elsewhere helped narrow the trade deficit in January.
Yield Curve Appears to Be Flattening. Is Recession on the Way? The Hard Trade 'Slowly and quietly, spreads of the 2-10 year Treasuries decided not to blow out and instead have started coming back. What does it mean that in a world of increasing rates, we’re getting a flattening yield curve?
Here’s the 10 year yield (click to enlarge):
http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2011/3/30/saupload_10yryld.png
Edging up slightly recently, and certainly not contracting. On the flip side, look at the 2-10 spread (click to enlarge):
http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2011/3/30/saupload_2_10_yr.png
A few short months ago, hyper-inflationists were warning that this spread, which hit high after high, would blow out as inflation took hold, became rampant, and we’d be back to the middle ages. I was never in that camp, and while we see some inflationary pressures building, I think the main risk remains deflation as real estate, unemployment, etc. will drag down the consumer.
Regardless, the 2-10 spread has come back from the brink and the curve is now flattening. I don’t know which way we go from here, but my analysis is still that rates are headed higher on an absolute level and the flattening yield curve supports my view that a recession or worse could be on the way. It’s a bad combination to have higher rates, deflation of stores of wealth, and a government with no ability to provide future fiscal and monetary stimulus.'
Evacuees struggle to leave shelters Toshiba proposes to scrap 4 nuke reactors at Fukushima plant [ Am I missing something here … some failed attempt at (Japanese) humor … Wow! … remind me not to buy a Toshiba computer [ I’ve also just eliminated dell and apple’s just not worth it (way over-priced)( I previously eliminated SONY Vaio – In 2000 it was probably more of a windows millennium problem but owing to SONY ‘proprietary’ I wasn’t even able to install new operating system ) And, on top of the viral barrage and typical windows problems, I had some problems with the dell, and when I opened the 'case', though not displayed on the outside, this 'dell' computer as displayed in the inside was 'made in china'. With few exceptions, so were the components. So much for the 'american' company … I think the same to be true of apple, etc.. Then quite some time ago, a compaq (now owned by hp) and more recently a hewlett packard, respectively were eliminated – computers didn’t even work – how pathetic. ]. The only explanation is that the radiation must be eating at their brains. Was this proposal ever in doubt … even necessary? I’m at a loss for words! I really am! ] TOKYO, April 8 (Xinhua) -- Toshiba Corp. submitted a proposal to Tokyo Electric Power Co. (TEPCO) and the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) to decommission four troubled reactors at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant.
Taxpayers foot $850M bill for Wall St.’s pension fees NY Post | New York City taxpayers are helping to pay $850 million in Wall Street investment fees.
Equity Valuations Are Forming the Second Biggest Bubble in U.S. History Kaspar [ Give this man a cigar ... he gets it right! ] Originally Posted on GoldShark.com 'Despite the terrible economic performance of the past ten years (both in terms of the markets and the general economy), equity valuations are now approaching the second largest bubble in United States history, surpassed only by the technology bubble.
Both the cause and the potential ramifications of this development are astounding.
Exhibit one: The cyclically-adjusted price-to-earnings ratio, or CAPE.
This is not a “fad” valuation metric. CAPE dates back to 1871, offering 140 years worth of data, during which time, the mean price-to-earnings ratio is 16.
According to Yale University’s Dr. Robert Shiller, the market is now 41% overvalued according to this valuation metric. The only time the markets have been more overvalued was a few brief months in 1929 and the tech bubble.
[chart http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2011/4/12/saupload_cape_thumb1.png ]
Exhibit 2: The Q ratio, which measures total market value compared to its replacement cost.
The Q-ratio data in the chart below dates back to 1900. According to the data, the markets have now surpassed the 1929 peak valuation by over 8%. In United States History, only the tech bubble was bigger than what we are experiencing today.
[chart http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2011/4/12/saupload_q_ratio_thumb1.png ]
Historically, bubbles turn a believable story and a trend into an overvaluation. In the 1700s during the South Sea Bubble, the mania driving the bubble was the seemingly endless wealth and prosperity of the New World. Railroading prospects induced a bubble in the late 1800s as America became connected from the east coast to the west coast. In the 1920s, a bubble formed on belief in the newly formed League of Nations (world peace), and more importantly, the society-changing impact of the automobile.
A similar life-changing invention – the Internet – swept the attention of investors in the 1990s as the prospect of a virtual marketplace would forever globalize commerce. Every bubble has a story, whether it be tulips or inventions or some other craze.
What is the story today? The prospect of inflation? High unemployment?
Exhibit 3: The gap between projected 12-month earnings against the 10-year average. (Two notes: a. the chart from Bloomberg fails to insert the word ‘projected’; Robert Shiller references this chart in this Bloomberg article. b. the 10-year average is the cyclically adjusted price to earnings ratio).
Considering the power of mean reversion, the market is stretching this reversion greater than 2000 and 2007!
[chart http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2011/4/12/saupload_gap_between_12_month_average_thumb1.png ]
Another question. Could the growth in earnings have been artificially manufactured?
To quote Elizabeth Barrett Browning: “Let me count the ways.”
· The change in accounting rules for the financial sector by FASB has generated massive “false” account profits beginning in 2009.
· The extended (and then further extended) unemployment benefits have kept an artificially higher demand for consumer consumption. As a result, the US government has artificially subsidized corporate profits.
· The billions saved through “free loading” by homeowners who have defaulted on their mortgages yet maintained their residence, thus living without a mortgage payment.
· The artificially suppressed interest rates.
So, not only do we have a valuation bubble, but the earnings on which the projections are based are non-sustaining, and non-market driven. Brilliant. Again, I am left wondering how it is possible to find ourselves in the same overvaluation situation as a few years ago especially considering nothing has been resolved to actually fix the world’s economic system.
A parting thought: according to research conducted by the Duke University Medical Center, it would seem that even monkeys are capable of learning from their mistakes. Why can’t we?'
The Negative Volatility Regime: The Market's Disconnect From Global Turmoil The Hard Trade [ A very interesting and important read / perspective; but I believe he is far too kind, gentle, empathetic, and overly eager to euphemistically explain the criminal fraud that continues even as I write. Indeed, his explanation may fit for the more 'passive' market participants as they watch these frauds unfold in the face of dire, contraindicated facts and circumstances. Yet he ignores the reality in that we are talking about literally the criminally insane on wall street. Forget not that huge amounts of money, in the trillions, have been scammed through fraudulent means, ignoring reality, and with wink and nod embracing the convenient, glaringly inaposite non-truth. His explanation is analogous to trying posit some rationale to the serial killer as such confronts a new victim. Moreover, I also believe he ignores the role of modern-day technology, viz., complex computer programming in facilitating these frauds, high-frequency churn-and-earn trading (of no economic benefit in net real terms), the ease of which accomplished is too tempting for these predisposed criminals to resist. I truly believe that with the 'profit' / fraudulent gains taken out of the 'equation' through, ie., prosecution, fines, jail, disgorgement, etc., you'd be less likely (though not completely, given the nature of criminal insanity) to see such disconnect from those 'inconvenient truths' others of us know as reality. That said, as elsewhere set forth on this website, the psychological factor is among the factors considered when analyzing securities, others of which include the economy, growth of earnings, quality of earnings, etc.. But, make no mistake, they are greedy, criminally insane, and do it for the money ( in contravention of the rights of others as in, ie., anti-social personality disorder, among other psychological afflictions ). ] ' For months I have been frustrated and surprised by the action of the markets in the face of continued turmoil. In different contexts, I’ve used terms such as "disconnected" or "bifurcated" where there seems to be a total discontinuity between the facts and the market actions. I now have a new term: The Negative Volatility Regime. In a new report from Artemis Capital, Christopher Cole outlines the current environment by focusing on volatility. After my own heart, he starts with behavioral finance and defines the normalcy bias:
Normalcy Bias and Crisis: A quirk of the human condition is for the mind to desire normalcy so intensely as to consciously or subconsciously disregard knowledge that is disruptive to a pre-conditioned reality. This phenomenon is an important part of crisis management and market psychology. The consequence of a normalcy bias is that warning signs of a potential crisis go unnoticed or are interpreted optimistically. When a crisis occurs people are so overwhelmed by events inconsistent with a desired reality they lose their ability to make decisions. Researchers believe when the mind encounters an entirely new experience or event it attempts to match that reality to relevant experiences from the past. If there are no matching experiences the mind enters into a kind of feedback loop resulting in passivity. This lack of action as a response to risk is called negative panic1 and it culminates in a dangerous inability to act assertively in crisis. In essence, the psyche struggles to come to terms with what is really happening. Paralysis follows. ( Interestingly, I believe this to be a more apt description of the Japanese reaction in this earthquake / tsunami induced nuclear crisis. )
He then goes on to discuss how the normalcy bias can lead investors to ignore looming threats, which in turn can lead to "a cancellation of short-term volatility risk premium that should otherwise exist." This new Negative Volatility Regime is defined by:
1. Large declines in spot volatility: The past nine months have shown an unusually high number of large declines in spot volatility (realized and implied) that are of a much higher magnitude and length than what has been observed historically. As a result of these large declines, the VIX index and short-term realized volatility are below historic averages;
2. Abnormally steep volatility curve: The manifestation of an abnormally steep volatility curve (as a % of spot volatility) with a linear shape that more closely resembles a glacial cliff as opposed to the more traditional desert plateau (see chart);
3. Underperformance of Variance Hedges: Low volatility-of-volatility on the back of the variance term-structure results in the underperformance of out-of-the-money options and variance as a hedge against market declines;
4. High Volatility Skew: High levels of volatility skew for far out-of-the-money options showing increased likelihood of large declines in equity prices.
The article has a detailed discussion and great graphs representing the shape of the volatility structure. The full report can be accessed at: Artemis Q1 2011_Is Volatility Broken. (It is posted with permission.)'
Weisenthal On Tuesday April 12, 2011, 1:02 pm EDT
‘Dear investors.You’ve had an amazing run since March 2009.
Maybe it’s time to get a little nervous. In addition to all kinds of dicey headlines — Japan (NYSE:EWJ), the Mideast, etc. –the economic data is starting to add up, and look like a slowdown.
You can see it in business confidence, headline GDP, and certain aspects of employment. Some previously hot industries are clearly starting to fade.
Case Shiller Is Showing The Housing Double Dip Getting Worse
Small Business Confidence Is Suddenly Turning Lower
Image: NFIB
Q1 GDP estimates have been getting slashed
Image: Wikimedia Commons
After starting off at 4%, estimates for GDP are now in some cases below 4%.
Durable goods have been weak Las Vegas gaming revenue has suddenly turned south again.
Image: WilWheaton on flickr
Oil prices have pushed the economy to the breaking point
http://static4.businessinsider.com/image/4da466804bd7c84422020000-547/markets-are-stalling-out.jpg
Markets are stalling out The age of cheap money is going away
With inflation on the rise, basically everything things QE2 is toast.
Austerity warnings from the UK
Image: Twitpic
In London, where fiscal tightening is further along than here, it’s having a clear effect on consumer spending. That’s coming to the US, too.’
Yield Curve Appears to Be Flattening. Is Recession on the Way? The Hard Trade 'Slowly and quietly, spreads of the 2-10 year Treasuries decided not to blow out and instead have started coming back. What does it mean that in a world of increasing rates, we’re getting a flattening yield curve?
Here’s the 10 year yield (click to enlarge):
http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2011/3/30/saupload_10yryld.png
Edging up slightly recently, and certainly not contracting. On the flip side, look at the 2-10 spread (click to enlarge):
http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2011/3/30/saupload_2_10_yr.png
A few short months ago, hyper-inflationists were warning that this spread, which hit high after high, would blow out as inflation took hold, became rampant, and we’d be back to the middle ages. I was never in that camp, and while we see some inflationary pressures building, I think the main risk remains deflation as real estate, unemployment, etc. will drag down the consumer.
Regardless, the 2-10 spread has come back from the brink and the curve is now flattening. I don’t know which way we go from here, but my analysis is still that rates are headed higher on an absolute level and the flattening yield curve supports my view that a recession or worse could be on the way. It’s a bad combination to have higher rates, deflation of stores of wealth, and a government with no ability to provide future fiscal and monetary stimulus.'
Taxpayers foot $850M bill for Wall St.’s pension fees NY Post | New York City taxpayers are helping to pay $850 million in Wall Street investment fees.
Stiglitz, Soros, Summers try to remake global economy RT | George Soros brought together the economic elite to take apart and remake world finance.
Iceland rejects hostile takeover attempt in national referendum John Stratton | Iceland is the only country where the people have been allowed to have a say in the matter.
U.S. Deficit to Rise to Largest Among Major Economies, IMF Says The U.S. is set to have the largest budget deficit of major developed economies this year and should narrow it now rather than face tough adjustments in the next two years, the International Monetary Fund said.
Inflation, fueled by gas and food prices, adds to worry
White House warns of debt ‘Armageddon’ The White House warned Republicans on Monday that failing to raise the $14.29 trillion US debt limit would spark “Armageddon-like” consequences for the slowly recovering US economy.
Bernanke: Middle Class Murderer Max Keiser and co-host, Stacy Herbert, report on the murderer of the middle class and how the wealth effect equals the poverty effect.
National / World
Top Scientist: Fukushima Meltdown Could Trigger Atomic Explosion Kurt Nimmo | Missing isotope readings will reveal if explosions were hydrogen or nuclear.
Alex Covers Government Secrecy on Coast to Coast AM Alex Jones | Alex joined Coast to Coast AM to talk about government secrecy.
Libya: Can We Call This A War Yet? Steve Watson | British and French foreign ministers criticize NATO and call for other alliance countries to intensify military operations.
The Nanny State Can’t Last Ron Paul | Despite the fear-mongering, a government shutdown would not have been as bad as claimed.
6 year old girl groped then drug tested by TSA You Tube | Disturbing video shows the TSA groping a very young girl.
War crime? U.S. Troops Fire on Iraqi Detainees (Video) Aaron Dykes | Shocking video has surfaced from 2005 of U.S. troops firing on captive Iraqi detainees after a riot.
IRS to increase “pre-crime” enforcement Sovereign Man | Did you ever see Minority Report?
Libya: Increased Airstrikes, Ground Troops, Contractors, Civilians Killed, Deadly DU Munitions – Can We Call This A War Yet? The globalist coalition refers to it as ‘kinetic military action’, yet as more civilians are killed in NATO bombings, and with experts adamant that deadly Depleted Uranium weapons are being used by Western forces, the conflict in Libya looks a hell of a lot like the occupations of Afghanistan and Iraq all over again.
Top Scientist: Fukushima Meltdown Could Trigger Atomic Explosion A British professor and expert on the health effects of ionizing radiation told Alex Jones today evidence points toward a nuclear explosion occurring at the Fukushima Daiichi complex. Two explosions at the plant in March were described as hydrogen gas explosions by Japanese officials and the corporate media.
Fukushima Introduces Deadly Strontium Into Environment Japan has admitted the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster is on par with the one at Chernobyl. At the same time, Japan’s science and technology ministry reports strontium, a heavy radioactive metal that is a catalyst for leukemia, has been detected around the crippled reactors. In addition to leukemia, strontium causes cancers of the bone, nose, lung, and skin.
Thermal cameras look inside homes to monitor energy efficiency The city of Boston has been taken to task by the ACLU over concerns about a roll-out of thermal imaging cameras being used to monitor energy efficiency inside homes. A pilot program to take aerial and street-level photos of heat loss in Boston was part of a scheme to encourage participation in home energy improvement programs, as well as to drive consumers towards green companies.
Alex Jones’ Audio Blog April 12, 2011 Alex often wakes up at night wanting to take down the thoughts running through his head, so he adopted his audio blog format to try to capture that state of mind. It is admittedly an experiment– he is still a bit dazed, for instance, during the beginning of the blog. Yet in many ways, Alex is more calm and focused at home and in peace, allowing for greater reflection on humanity’s bigger picture.
Cornel West Calls Obama a Black Mascot of Wall Street Oligarchs The outspoken Princeton professor has not-so-kind words for Al Sharpton and President Obama.
Stiglitz, Soros, Summers try to remake global economy The original Bretton Woods conference of world leaders created the global economic framework still in place today.The one that took place over the weekend put on by the Institute for New Economic Thinking — a think tank bankrolled by billionaire investor George Soros – brought together some of the economic elite to take it apart and talk about how to make a new one. So where is the global economy, and specifically the United States headed now?
Fukushima radiation taints US milk supplies at levels 300% higher than EPA maximums The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) continues to release new data showing that various milk and water supply samples from across the US are testing increasingly high for radioactive elements such as Iodine-131, Cesium-134, and Cesium-137, all of which are being emitted from the ongoing Fukushima Daiichia nuclear fallout.
Pakistan Tells U.S. to Halt Drones Pakistan has privately demanded the Central Intelligence Agency suspend drone strikes against militants on its territory, one of the U.S.’s most effective weapons against al Qaeda and Taliban leaders, officials said.
Drudgereport: JAPAN NOW ADMITS: IT'S CHERNOBYL...
Tries to Explain Delays in Reporting Radiation...
Obama to Call for Higher Taxes...
DEFICIT ROCKETS 16% IN FIRST HALF OF YEAR...
Inflation Actually 'Near 10%'...
IMF: US 'lacks credibility' on debt...
'Stringent Austerity Measures' Needed...
BUDGET TRICKS, SLEIGHTS OF HAND IN BUDGET DEAL...
Conservatives' criticism growing...
Budget deal axes 'czars' -- who are already gone...
Proposal $773B Higher Than 2008 Budget...
$5 GAS BY MEMORIAL DAY
Thermal Cameras On Boston Streets Can Show Activity Inside Homes...
Pump prices less than 10% below record high...
San Fran highest at $4.13...
OBAMA MAN: TRUMP HAS 'ZERO CHANCE' [ Hard to believe, or maybe because this particular factual reality is so easy to believe because it's so obviously true, but wobama finally got something right, not that it changes anything for him! ]
Despite Vote, We're Keeping FCC Internet Rules! [ Pelosi finally gets something right! ] [ wobama, pelosi finally uncharacteristically correct, albeit once each in their lifetime ... must be the japanese radiation ... ]
9th Body Found In NY Serial Killer Probe, Possibly A 10th...
Obama regrets HIS vote against raising debt limit...
RASMUSSEN: President hits new low 'strongly approve' – 19%...
UPDATE: Egyptians turn anger on army in Cairo protest...
New Clashes in Tahrir Square...
Gaza-Israel violence rages...
'West wants war'...
'Mideast Without Israel and America Now Possible'...
Despite Vote, We're Keeping FCC Internet Rules! [ Pelosi finally gets something right! ]
US Debt Jumped $54 Billion in Week Preceding Deal to Cut $38 Billion...
11TH HOUR: LET'S MAKE A DEAL
Obama: 'Americans of different beliefs came together'...
Takes credit for 'biggest annual spending cut in history'...
'LIVE WITHIN OUR MEANS'...
FLASHBACK: Deficit Forecast Nears $1.5 Trillion...
SURPRISE: Government shutdown averted...
Spending cuts total nearly $40 billion...
$78 billion below Obama request...
Deal bans DC from spending funds for abortion, continues school voucher program...
BOEHNER: 'As good a deal as we could get'...
REPORT: Oprah won't endorse Obama for re-election...
Poll: Obama Struggling With Whites...
Even black voters slip...
OIL JUMPS 2% -- IN A DAY...
Fever for Gold, Silver Grips Investors...
Biden daughter trashes Trump...
Bill Cosby slams: 'He's full of it!'...
Trump Takes On NYT, Gail Collins...
Admires her for surviving 'so long with so little talent'...
NBCWSJ POLL SHOCK: TRUMP #2 GOP [ NBC where t_rump has his Jerry Springer derivative shock-jock show and sinkhole new york's fraud street journal … poll? … Don't make me laugh … Lawrence O'Donnell insists parent company NBC consider firing Donald Trump Daily Caller ... Milbank: Donald trumps CPAC | Gibbs gone (Washington Post) [ Trump’s a loser, dressed up and propped up by and to shill for a declining, fallen nation in the most corrupt regions (ie., new york, jersey, etc.) of the country (every fallen nation has such); of that there is no question …"Over the years I've participated in many battles and have really almost come out very, very victorious every single time," the Donald said. (Except for the bankruptc[ies], that is. [ trump’s never won a battle that wasn’t fixed in advance (including the ‘pre-packaged bankrupcies’ crammed down the throats of objecting creditors – jersey general ] He also with his corrupt mob ilk 'chased' Steve Wynn out of jersey – Steve Wynn's doing extremely well in Macau and Vegas.) "I've beaten many people and companies, and I've won many wars," he added. (Though he didn't serve in the military.) "I have fairly [according to mobster rules; ie., bribery, money laundering, etc.] but intelligently [ as any other mob boss … trump is total b*** s***, a fraud, and lightweight … and, despite the façade, quite insecure … trump’s a total mental case … He truly is the ‘poster-boy’ of american decline and part of the problem, not the solution! …trump also said america’s become the laughingstock of the world … true enough … and trump the biggest joke … NEWS FLASH: Direct from Lost Angeles Learning Annex – Presenting mobster t_rump of new yoke, new joyzey, and now caleefornia mob fame with his continuing message for the past several years: buy real estate (and watch the values go down…..riiiiight!).
Bank sues Trump over Chicago tower loan...
Trump casino to miss interest payment...
trump’s fired (from ‘his own company’)
Gunfire Erupts Inside trump Taj Mahal Casino, 1 Dead - Second Such Incident In A Year At N.J. Mainstay Ends With Employee Killed – What else would you you expect from a mobster’s casino in mob-infested jersey!
Trump luxury resort folds, leaving buyers defrauded…litigation has commenced…send for sister maryanne, the corrupt federal judge to preside, coverup, etc., she’s in n.y./n.j./pa 3rd circuit ct appeals, understands drug money laundering/fraud and handles her own motions to recuse her and like mobster trump should be in jail ... (see RICO Case)] earned many billions of dollars [ at whose expense ], which in a sense was both a scorecard and acknowledgment of my abilities [ to fool most of the people, all of the time. ] ." TRUMP DRAWS CHEERS, BOOS AT CONSERVATIVE CONFERENCE... PONDERING PRESIDENTIAL RUN... [Don’t make me laugh! … Donald T_rump Would Impose 25% Tax on China Imports if President [ trump also said america’s become the laughingstock of the world … true enough … and trump the biggest joke … Indeed, that trump even posits the possibility of a run when he should be in jail is a testament to just how big a laughingstock pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt america’s become! [ If he was mobster in chief, mobster and scoundrel trump wraps himself in populist american flag and offers up an (too little too late – typical lightweight) implausible solution to keep ‘the juice’ flowing though he’d already be in jail in a rational, non-declining nation with meaningful laws. All China has to do is dump (and not prospectively buy) their ever more and declining in value day-by-day (from dollar debasement policies) u.s. paper / bonds and overnight and the u.s. economy consequently thereby collapse. [ When you come right down to it, this has been america’s most significant export. Indeed, this irrevocable structural shift, hailed by cia men hw bush and clinton (clinton couldn’t have survived with them) by way of NAFTA as the greatest thing since sliced bread was indeed in no uncertain terms condemned and warned against by Perot, a man of honor who, unlike his opponents, could not be bought, which is the reason, in pervasively corrupt america, he could never have been elected. Interestingly, you may have noticed the good (but not great, other than the spotlight on pervasive bribery including judges, police, politicians, etc., being far too light) the film ‘The Untouchables’ getting a wide re-airing of late, purporting to be a significant part of american folklore / history / culture. However, the reality is that in america, and certainly today, the real story with impact is that of ‘The Touchables’. The reality is that Elliot Ness died a broken man; bankrupt, unable to even win election to the mayoralty of his then current hometown. He was incorruptible; and hence, in the real america, unelectable at the least if not also all but unemployable (he and his are among those few genetic anomalies in america as I’ve previously alluded to. How far america has fallen from even false perception! Pervasively corrupt, meaningfully lawless america can’t even fake it anymore. See, for example, http://albertpeia.com/CIAAgentAffidavit1.jpg http://albertpeia.com/FBIAgentAffidavit11.jpg , and of course, corrupt legal / judicial processes, etc., Defacto bankrupt, fraudulent america also spends more on offensive (defensive a misnomer / propaganda) military spending than all the nations of the world combined, and by a large margin at that. Do you see a pattern emerging here [ I unfortunately only belatedly did, and the feds, fed employees, cia, all 3 branches of the u.s. government, etc., are included in this evolved american trait of inherent criminality in the most nefarious sense … The pervasively corrupt american illegal system … corrupt u.s. courts / (lawyers) / judges: Their lifetime plush appointments should be abolished, which corrupt entities are unheard of in productive societies as China, Japan, etc.. Time to abolish these drags on society and eliminate their lifetime stipends and costly bureaucracies. Rules of law mean nothing to these typically corrupt americans. Most, including sam alito of the u.s. supreme court, concerning drug money laundering and obstruction of justice in the 3rd circuit ( also maryanne trump barry who covered-up drug money laundering through her brother’s casinos in a civil RICO case) should have gone to or belong in jail. Contrary to popular belief, they do it for the money, personal money, big, cash, untraceable money. The fog of war is great for such things (360 tons $100 bills flown into Iraq and missing, etc.). [ http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm ]. america’s just a fraudulent and failed defacto bankrupt nation. ] “I would announce, without equivocation, a 25% tax increase on anything purchased from China.” ]
CHENEY HECKLED... 'DRAFTDOGER!' 'WHERE'S BIN LADEN?' ]
65 Ways That Everything That You Think That You Own Is Being Systematically Taken Away From You
The Economic Collapse April 12, 2011 'Everything that you own is slowly being taken away from you. It is being done purposely and it is being done by design. Many Americans like to think of themselves as “well off”, but as will be demonstrated below, we don’t “own” nearly as much as we think that we do. The truth is that most of us have to frantically run around accumulating wealth as rapidly as we can so that we can somehow stay ahead of the rate that wealth is being taken away from us. The entire system is designed to take what you have away from you. There are many ways that this is accomplished – taxation, inflation, debt, interest, fines, fees, tickets, government seizures and good old-fashioned corporate greed. If you tried to just sit back and do nothing but hold on to the wealth that you already have you would find out that it would disappear rather quickly. When you take the time to really analyze our system the conclusion is undeniable – everything that you think that you own is being systematically taken away from you.
There is a reason why the wealthiest one percent of all Americans control 40 percent of all the wealth in the United States. The system is designed to funnel all of the wealth to them and to the government. Average Americans are experiencing a declining standard of living and it is not by accident.
Just check out some of the ways that our wealth is being taken from us….
#1 Do you think that you own your house? You might want to think again. Most Americans that “own a home” are paying a mortgage. If you stop paying that mortgage you will lose that home. Over a million American families were kicked out of their homes last year. This year a million more American families will get the boot.
But when those families get booted out onto the street they don’t get their down payments back. They don’t get all the mortgage payments that they have made back. The banks get to keep all of the money and all of the houses.
Perhaps you don’t have a mortgage. Does that mean that you “own your home”?
No, not really. Just refuse to pay your property taxes and watch what happens. At best you can say that you have the right to rent your home from the government.
In any event, the reality is that the banks now own more of “our homes” than we do. During the most recent recession, the total amount of U.S. home equity owned by the banks surpassed the total amount of U.S. home equity owned by the rest of us for the first time ever.
Things used to be far different in this country. Once upon a time American families owned most of the houses and most of the land in this nation.
But now the banks own most of it. Sadly, most American families that believe that they “own homes” are actually enslaved to 20 or 30 year debt contracts.
#2 Do you think that you own your car? You don’t own it if you are still making payments on it. If you stop making payments you will rapidly lose that car.
But even if your car is paid off, you can only operate that car if you do the following….
*You must pay the license fee
*You must pay the car registration fee
*You must pay the emissions inspection fee
*You must pay the property taxes on that car (if that applies in your area)
*You must pay the tire taxes
*You must pay the gas taxes
If you have paid all of those taxes, then you are permitted to drive only where the government allows you to drive and only under the rules that the government sets for you.
But at least you “own” your car, right?
#3 What about your possessions? Do you own them?
Well, yes, you probably own some possessions.
But that doesn’t mean that they are not enslaving you.
After all, did you use a credit card to pay for any of them?
If so, you could end up paying much more for your possessions than you originally thought that they cost.
For example, if you only make the minimum payment on your credit card each month, a $6,000 credit card bill could end up costing you over $30,000 (depending on the interest rate).
#4 Do you own your education? Well, it is undeniable that nobody can ever take it away from you. But if you took out student loans that debt may end up enslaving you for decades.
The borrower is the servant of the lender and student loan debt is more of a financial drain on Americans than ever before. Americans now owe more on student loans than they do on credit cards. As hard as that is to believe, that is actually true. Americans now owe more than $903 billion on student loans, which is a new all-time record.
#5 Will you protect your wealth if you put your money in the bank?
No, in fact your wealth will be systematically destroyed in the bank.
Inflation is a hidden tax on every single dollar that you own. It destroys the value of all dollars in existence. There are some Americans that have been saving money for decades, but those savings are being taxed into oblivion by inflation. Many experts are now projecting that the average price of a gallon of gasoline will hit $5 by the end of the year. So the next time you go to the gas pump just take a moment to think about how your wealth is being drained away by inflation.
#6 Insurance costs continue to soar. After insuring everything in our lives many of us barely have any money left over to actually live our lives with. In particular, health insurance premiums have become completely and totally ridiculous. According to the Los Angeles Times, Blue Shield of California plans to raise rates an average of 30% to 35%, and some individual policy holders could see their health insurance premiums rise by a whopping 59 percent this year alone. So how are American families supposed to survive if they keep on handing over bigger and bigger chunks of their income to thehealth care industry?
#7 State and local governments all over the nation have turned to ticket writing as a primary revenue source. In fact, in some areas of the country traffic citations are soaring at a crazy rate. For example, 110,000 more traffic citations were written in Los Angeles County last fiscal year than were written in the fiscal year immediately prior to the last recession.
The truth is that the police even realize what is going on. Just consider the following quote from from Police Chief Michael Reaves of Utica, Michigan….
“When I first started in this job 30 years ago, police work was never about revenue enhancement, but if you’re a chief now, you have to look at whether your department produces revenues.”
#8 Some states have decided to simply confiscate wealth even if nothing has been done wrong. For example, the state of California is aggressively seizing “unclaimed” safe deposit boxes. If you have a safe deposit box that you have not checked on in a while you might want to make sure that it is still there.
#9 You might end up losing your valuables when you cross the border. It is being reported that U.S. border agents are now regularly seizing laptops and other electronic devices as people cross the border. In many cases those items are never returned.
#10 If you don’t pay your property taxes, you will lose your house and it will likely be a big Wall Street bank that will be taking it from you. As I have written about previously, the big Wall Street banks are buying up thousands upon thousands of tax liens and are making a killing by socking distressed homeowners with predatory interest, outrageous penalties and almost unbelievable legal fees.
#11 Of course the biggest way that our wealth is being drained is through federal income taxes. The reason that the Federal Reserve and the IRS were established back in 1913 was to redistribute wealth. Wealth is transferred from the American people to the U.S. government and then ultimately to the elite and to the causes that the elite favor.
But federal taxes are only one of the taxes that we pay. The truth is that the average American pays dozens of different taxes each year. Just check out a few examples of the different taxes that drain our wealth….
#12 Accounts Receivable Taxes
#13 Building Permit Taxes
#14 Capital Gains Taxes
#15 CDL License Taxes
#16 Cigarette Taxes
#17 Corporate Income Taxes
#18 Court Fines (indirect taxes)
#19 Dog License Taxes
#20 Federal Unemployment Taxes (FUTA)
#21 Fishing License Taxes
#22 Food License Taxes
#23 Gasoline Taxes
#24 Gift Taxes
#25 Hunting License Taxes
#26 Inheritance Taxes
#27 Inventory Taxes
#28 IRS Interest Charges (tax on top of tax)
#29 IRS Penalties (tax on top of tax)
#30 Liquor Taxes
#31 Local Income Taxes
#32 Luxury Taxes
#33 Marriage License Taxes
#34 Medicare Taxes
#35 Payroll Taxes
#36 Property Taxes
#37 Real Estate Taxes
#38 Recreational Vehicle Taxes
#39 Road Toll Booth Taxes
#40 Road Usage Taxes (Truckers)
#41 Sales Taxes
#42 Self-Employment Taxes
#43 School Taxes
#44 Septic Permit Taxes
#45 Service Charge Taxes
#46 Social Security Taxes
#47 State Income Taxes
#48 State Unemployment Taxes (SUTA)
#49 Telephone federal excise taxes
#50 Telephone federal universal service fee taxes
#51 Telephone federal, state and local surcharge taxes
#52 Telephone minimum usage surcharge taxes
#53 Telephone recurring and non-recurring taxes
#54 Telephone state and local taxes
#55 Telephone usage charge taxes
#56 Toll Bridge Taxes
#57 Toll Tunnel Taxes
#58 Traffic Fines (indirect taxation)
#59 Trailer Registration Taxes
#60 Utility Taxes
#61 Vehicle License Registration Taxes
#62 Vehicle Sales Taxes
#63 Watercraft Registration Taxes
#64 Well Permit Taxes
#65 Workers Compensation Taxes
Even the future is being taken away from us. The future is literally being stolen from our children and our grandchildren. They will be inheriting the 14 trillion dollar (and still rising) national debt that we have accumulated. What we have done to future generations is unthinkable, and yet we continue to endlessly borrow more money. The Congressional Research Service estimates that the U.S. government will need to borrow $738 billion between April 1st and September 30th. Faith in U.S. Treasuries is falling so rapidly that now the biggest bond fund in the world, PIMCO, is actually shorting U.S. Treasuries.
When you base an entire economy on debt, eventually you end up withmoney problems that never seem to end. As a nation we are now enslaved to a vicious spiral of debt that is going to destroy everything that our forefathers worked so hard to build.
As the debt loads of our federal, state and local governments become even more burdensome, they are going to want even more money from us. For decades we gave in to new tax after new tax thinking that it would finally satisfy them. But it never seems to be enough. They always want more.
It is the same thing with the banksters. They are never satisfied either. They always want more assets and they always want more Americans to be enslaved to debt.
Unfortunately, most Americans are so caught up in the “rat race” that they never take much time to think about who designed the race or why they are running it.
Hopefully more Americans will wake up and will realize that our entire economy and our entire financial system need to be reformed. Our current system is inherently flawed and it will eventually impoverish the vast majority of us if we allow it to.'
Cuts will affect vast spectrum of priorities (Washington Post) [ Drudge was reporting that the new focus will be trillions, not as just passed, the billions in cuts, which I did not include / highlight because that's not news! Davis ‘… This is how we pay off our current debts and I think bondholders are simply happy to get anything out of a country that admits it owes $15Tn (1/4 of global GDP) but probably owes closer to $60Tn (entire global GDP) in the form of unfunded liabilities. The funniest thing about this (and you have to laugh) is to see Conservative pundits get on TV and talk about how we need to cut $100Bn worth of discretionary spending to "fix" this (while continuing to spend $1Tn on the military and $1Tn on tax cuts for the top 1% each year). There is no fixing this and even a Republican said you can’t fool all of the people all of the time. THIS HOUSE OF CARDS IS TEETERING FOLKS – PLEASE BE CAREFUL OUT THERE! ‘ . ] More than half of the $38 billion in spending cuts that lawmakers agreed to last week in the 2011 budget compromise that averted a government shutdown would hit education, labor and health programs. [The Return of the Carry Trade? [ Wikipedia http://en.wikipedia.org 'What Does Currency Carry Trade Mean? A strategy in which an investor sells a certain currency with a relatively low interest rate and uses the funds to purchase a different currency yielding a higher interest rate. A trader using this strategy attempts to capture the difference between the rates, which can often be substantial, depending on the amount of leverage used. - The carry of an asset is the return obtained from holding it (if positive), or the cost of holding it (if negative) (see also Cost of carry).For instance, commodities are usually negative carry assets, as they incur storage costs or may suffer from depreciation, but in some circumstances, appropriately hedged commodities can be positive carry assets if the forward/futures market is willing to pay sufficient premium for future delivery. This can also refer to a trade with more than one leg, where you earn the spread between borrowing a low carry asset and lending a high carry one; such as gold during financial crisis, due to its safe haven quality. Carry trades are not arbitrages: pure arbitrages make money no matter what; carry trades make money only if nothing changes against the carry's favor. ]
ETF News Update: Theater of the Absurd Nyaradi 'This week’s soap opera in Washington, D.C. was truly the “theater of the absurd” as Congress and the President wrangled over an “historic” $39 billion budget cut that pales sadly in comparison to the $189 billion deficit that the Federal Government ran up in March alone.We’ll discuss this in greater detail in a moment, but for today, we are content with our positions in gold, oil and inverse exchange traded funds and we remain in the defensive mode, anticipating stronger headwinds ahead. On My Radar
http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2011/4/11/saupload_spxpf040911.png …’ ]
China shows small trade deficit (Washington Post) [ Result leads some to suggest more “balance” in the economy. Japan to raise nuclear crisis alert level to 7, equal to Chernobyl event Japan media reports move from level 5 to level 7, the highest, at tsunami-stricken nuclear plant. Japan quake may lead to more seismic trouble Evacuees struggle to leave shelters Toshiba proposes to scrap 4 nuke reactors at Fukushima plant [ Am I missing something here … some failed attempt at (Japanese) humor … Wow! … remind me not to buy a Toshiba computer [ I’ve also just eliminated dell and apple’s just not worth it (way over-priced)( I previously eliminated SONY Vaio – In 2000 it was probably more of a windows millennium problem but owing to SONY ‘proprietary’ I wasn’t even able to install new operating system ) And, on top of the viral barrage and typical windows problems, I had some problems with the dell, and when I opened the 'case', though not displayed on the outside, this 'dell' computer as displayed in the inside was 'made in china'. With few exceptions, so were the components. So much for the 'american' company … I think the same to be true of apple, etc.. Then quite some time ago, a compaq (now owned by hp) and more recently a hewlett packard, respectively were eliminated – computers didn’t even work – how pathetic. ]. The only explanation is that the radiation must be eating at their brains. Was this proposal ever in doubt … even necessary? I’m at a loss for words! I really am! ] TOKYO, April 8 (Xinhua) -- Toshiba Corp. submitted a proposal to Tokyo Electric Power Co. (TEPCO) and the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) to decommission four troubled reactors at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, ...Previous: City withers in shadow of reactors (Washington Post) Japan dumps radioactive water into ocean [ Japan will never be viewed nor be quite the same again; somewhat hapless, if not hopeless, they have indeed become. Drudgereport: JAPAN TRIES 'SHREDDED NEWSPAPER' TO STOP NUKE LEAK (Well, there you go … a nostalgic throwback to yesteryear … paper maché … who woulda' thunk it … or remembered it … riiiiight … sounds like a plan!) 4 of 6 Daiichi reactors can’t be fixed (WP) [ I continue to believe this to be a far more serious catastrophe with further reaching consequences, economically, financially, and otherwise than are being sloughed off by markets, pols, and media. It truly is sad to even think about what seem likely to be 'suicide jobs' but I must say I was incredulous regarding the $5,000 / day offer of recruitment for such workers (short-term? … for as long as they live?... Wow! … I immediately thought of skid row, the bowery, and admit to being somewhat ashamed for having done so.) Fukushima Nuke Plant Now in Full Meltdown Kurt Nimmo | Smoke was reported at a second nuclear power plant in Japan today. Japan’s Nuclear Rescuers: ‘Inevitable Some of Them May Die Within Weeks’ Workers at the disaster-stricken Fukushima nuclear plant in Japan say they expect to die from radiation sickness as a result of their efforts to bring the reactors under control, the mother of one of the men tells Fox News.Smoke Rises from DIFFERENT Nuclear Complex … 7 Miles from the Leaking Reactors The same nuclear power plant operator that runs the Daiichi complex – Tepco – runs a separate nuclear complex 7 miles away, called Fukushima Daini. There are 4 reactors located at the Daini complex.Japan Considers Entombing Nuclear Plant as Workers Fight to Stop Radiation Bloomberg | Japan will consider entombing its crippled atomic plant in concrete. Reactors now leaking plutonium into soil New York Post | “The situation is very grave,” Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano said today. ]Workers continue to endure soaring radiation levels as they work to stave off a full-scale meltdown. ] In area that survived quake and tsunami largely intact, nuclear fears have created a ghost town.
The shrinking alliance (Washington Post) [ I think in the final analysis, the inverse relationship between the size of the hu / hah, gung ho, nato alliance / participation in these military adventures abroad and the size of the respective members' deficits will become 'clear as an unmuddied lake'. Globalists Coming Full Circle Tony Cartalucci | Long before the verified lies of Qaddafi’s “door-to-door” genocide, Libya was already marked for destabilization and regime change. From Ivory Coast to Libya And Beyond: The Conquest of Africa Rick Rozoff | Two of only five African nations not partnered with the Pentagon through AFRICOM are the targets of violent uprisings aimed at toppling their governments. Leahy: Obama Needs Congressional Approval to Put Troops in Libya CNS News | Senate Judiciary Chairman Patrick Leahy said President Obama needs congressional approval to send U.S. troops into Libya. Permanent Occupation: Gates Admits US Troops To Remain In Iraq Beyond 2011 The world’s media reacted with a collective shrug of the shoulders today as Defense Secretary Robert Gates admitted that US troops are likely to stay in Iraq beyond 2011, making another scheduled withdrawal date nothing more than an empty meaningless promise. Davis ‘… This is how we pay off our current debts and I think bondholders are simply happy to get anything out of a country that admits it owes $15Tn (1/4 of global GDP) but probably owes closer to $60Tn (entire global GDP) in the form of unfunded liabilities. The funniest thing about this (and you have to laugh) is to see Conservative pundits get on TV and talk about how we need to cut $100Bn worth of discretionary spending to "fix" this (while continuing to spend $1Tn on the military and $1Tn on tax cuts for the top 1% each year). There is no fixing this and even a Republican said you can’t fool all of the people all of the time. THIS HOUSE OF CARDS IS TEETERING FOLKS – PLEASE BE CAREFUL OUT THERE! ‘ . ] Blink, and you might miss NATO’s disappearance.
Gerson: Obama’s tap dance on a tightrope (Washington Post) [ What an understatement … wobama the b (for b*** s***)Yeah! An appropriate word picture straight out one of the old Roach ' Our Gang' comedies … and I'm not going say which characters are which, according to wobama we must share the sacrifice, which means you because we all know how the wobamas sacrifice, ie., $500 sneakers, lavishly expensive vacations, etc., which means we have a buck, we eat! Obama turns to deficit panel (WP) The president plans this week to call for “balance” and shared sacrifice in tackling the rocketing national debt. { Obama vs. Trump: A Circus Sideshow on the Road to Feudalism [ Even if you don't buy the 'feudalism' characterization of pervasively corrupt, meaningfully lawless, defacto bankrupt america, there is no question but that america is in an intractable and regressive state of decline. Nimmo |
Roche 'The worst part of it ...Obama, who vowed change, has done almost nothing to fix any of it and in fact continues most of the policies that helped get us here in the first place’ ‘INSIDE JOB’ Ferguson wins Oscar for Documentary on the unprosecuted massive extant fraud in the (many) TRILLIONS by the frauds on wall street ( and declares with oscar in hand that not one high level wall street exec has been prosecuted … despite ‘earning’ billiions from the fraud ), the commentator / experts recommend getting rid of the corrupt eric holder ( what do holder and wobama have in common … wall street money? … a proclivity for jive-talking / b*** s*** ?...all/some of the above … or is it something else ... a hint - UPDATE: MORE CLAIMS OF RACE BIAS AT JUSTICE... ‘In emotional and personal testimony, an ex-Justice official who quit over the handling of a voter intimidation case against the New Black Panther Party accused his former employer of instructing attorneys in the civil rights division to ignore cases that involve black defendants and white victims ' Cases against Wall Street lag despite Holder’s vows to target financial fraud WP | Obama has promised to hold Wall Street accountable for the meltdown.
Obama’s Dismal Approval Numbers
Drudgereport: OBAMA MAN: TRUMP HAS 'ZERO CHANCE' [ Hard to believe, or maybe because this particular factual reality is so easy to believe because it's so obviously true, but wobama finally got something right, not that it changes anything for him! http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm ]
Despite Vote, We're Keeping FCC Internet Rules! [ Pelosi finally gets something right! ] [ wobama, pelosi finally uncharacteristically correct, albeit once each in their lifetime ... ]
RASMUSSEN: President hits new low 'strongly approve' – 19%... } ]
IMF chief says work remains on economy How well do you know the world’s currencies? (Washington Post) [ Duh! Ya think? Another crisis? How 'bout the other crisis that never ended … got 'obfuscated' with those over-active printing presses and worthless currencies ala the 'no-recession fed'. Soros: Dollar ‘no longer’ reserve currency Aaron Dykes | Soros says the Dollar has fallen, the U.S. ‘Could Absorb More Debt’ and that China is the ‘big winner’ of the financial crisis. Un-reserve Dollar? US thinkers up for world order reshape RT | “Bretton Woods II” convenes to debate the future of the global economy. The Return of the Carry Trade? [ Wikipedia http://en.wikipedia.org 'What Does Currency Carry Trade Mean? A strategy in which an investor sells a certain currency with a relatively low interest rate and uses the funds to purchase a different currency yielding a higher interest rate. A trader using this strategy attempts to capture the difference between the rates, which can often be substantial, depending on the amount of leverage used. - The carry of an asset is the return obtained from holding it (if positive), or the cost of holding it (if negative) (see also Cost of carry).For instance, commodities are usually negative carry assets, as they incur storage costs or may suffer from depreciation, but in some circumstances, appropriately hedged commodities can be positive carry assets if the forward/futures market is willing to pay sufficient premium for future delivery. This can also refer to a trade with more than one leg, where you earn the spread between borrowing a low carry asset and lending a high carry one; such as gold during financial crisis, due to its safe haven quality. Carry trades are not arbitrages: pure arbitrages make money no matter what; carry trades make money only if nothing changes against the carry's favor.
Go to following pages for above links:
http://www.albertpeia.com/currentopics2ndqtr10108.htm
http://www.albertpeia.com
http://www.albertpeia.com/alresume.htm
http://www.albertpeia.com/wallstreetlunacy2ndqtr10108.htm
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