Al Peia's Blog: November 22, 2010 posts

Business / Economic / Financial

[ This link to a somewhat more cumulative blog posts page will precede current days news since most all topics remain current in terms of impact and longer-term effect and can be searched by topical index term more easily. The same is provided since the blog site http://alpeiablog.blogspot.com has just been censored as to size by google which is typical for google as nsa / cia / gov’t shill as more are becoming aware of. The same is true for microsoft, another co. that’s seen their best days and relies on the government to maintain their monopoly. Up to now the better page http://www.scribd.com/alpeia is provided for ease of formatting and clarity thereby while the Washington Post page is the real deal but without formatting http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/community/mypost/index.html?plckPersonaPage=PersonaComments&plckUserId=alpeia&newspaperUserId=alpeia ]

A united goal: Saving the tiger (Washington Post) [ Clearly the wisdom of an historically great leader for the ages, Vladimir V. Putin should be given great deference in all matters of global concern. Having evolved from his youthful indiscretion as a novice KGB agent, a hand dealt to him (by a soviet communist system) more than chosen, he has reminded the world of the greatness that was, is, and forever will be Russia’s and His! ] The tale of the magnificent Siberian tiger, and its unfinished fight for survival, should be a compelling one for the 500 conservationists and world leaders arriving for Russian Prime Minister Vladimir V. Putin's tiger summit this weekend. Protecting where the wild things are Washington Post - Kathy Lally - ‎IN MOSCOW The tale of the magnificent Siberian tiger, and its unfinished fight for survival, should be a compelling one for the 500 conservationists and world leaders arriving for Prime Minister Vladimir Putin's tiger summit this weekend ... 13 nations meet to try to save wild tigers CNN International Putin, Wen, other leaders in bid to save the tiger Reuters

The Economy Will Not Recover Until the Economic Criminals are Prosecuted, and There Are Real Investigations Into 9/11 and Other Government Failures Trust is essential for a stable economy; Trust is currently at an all-time low; Launching criminal prosecutions and real investigations is one of the main prerequisites for an economic recovery.

Are Stocks Over Loved and Over Valued? [ Is the Pope Catholic? Do bears s*** in the woods? … Reality’s short answer: YES! YES! YES! ]
Simon Maierhofer, On Monday November 22, 2010, 12:32 pm EST ‘Momentum and perception are the big intangibles of the investing universe. Nobody knows exactly when the investing masses' mojo will turn on or off, overheat or over correct.Valuations, similar to gravity, are the big equalizer. In a world of uncertainty, valuations are the one thing you can rely on. Getting valuations right is one thing, figuring out when valuations will exercise their gravitational pull on stocks (NYSEArca: VTI - News) is another.
Using Valuations as a Guide
When planning a trip from point A to B, you need to know where A and B are. If you don't know your destination, you will most likely end up some place you don't want to be. Failing to prepare is preparing to fail.Fair valuations are the final investment destination. If you invest in an undervalued market or stock and have the patience to let the market do its magic, your investment will be profitable 9 out of 10 times.If you invest in an overvalued market and don't get out in time, odds are that your journey will end in tears.
Asking the 'Valuation Guru'
Charles Dow, the founder of the Wall Street Journal and inventor of the Dow Jones Averages was an astute student of valuations. According to Mr. Dow, a correct understanding of valuations is the single most important ingredient to investment success. If Mr. Dow was still alive, what would he say about today's market? Would he tell you to buy or sell?Let's examine the most basic and probably purest measure of value: Dividend yields.Unlike P/E ratios, dividend yields can't be fudged and massaged. Companies with a healthy cash flow use their financial prowess to attract and retain buy-and hold type investors with juicy dividend checks.The dividend yield is expressed as a percentage of the stock price and can rise for two reasons: 1) stock price drops or 2) dividend payment increases. As a rule of thumb, the higher dividend yields, the healthier valuations.
Dividend Yield - Buy High, Sell Low
It's human nature to want what you can't get. Current yields are low, but everybody wants income, so investors are willing to risk the return of their money for return on their money. Current yields are close to an all-time low, so it's fair to assume that stocks are overvalued.The opposite was true in the first quarter of 2009. A variety of ETFs yielded close to or even more than 10%. The Financial Select Sector SPDRs (NYSEArca: XLF - News) and Vanguard Financial ETF (NYSEArca: VFH - News) paid more than 7%.Dividend ETFs like the iShares DJ Select Dividend (NYSEArca: DVY - News) and SPDR S&P Dividend ETF (NYSEArca: SDY - News) had yields north of 6%, and even plain value ETFs like Vanguard Value (NYSEArca: VTV - News) and iShares Russell 1000 Value (NYSEArca: IWD - News) paid more than 4%.The problem at that time was that nobody was interested in yield. Investors shunned stocks and yields like cats shun water. Within a week of prices bottoming and stocks beginning to rally, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter recommended to load up on dividend-rich ETFs.Here's the newsletter's March 2, 2009 recommendation: 'This counter trend rally will have to be broad and powerful in order to relieve investor's pent-up urge to buy. Dividend ETFs with a higher allocation to financials are likely to rise higher than the broad market. Some of the dividend yields are quite juicy and can help to offset timing mistakes.'

Beware of the Yields Trap

Since then, the S&P (SNP: ^GSPC) has risen as much as 84%, the performance for the Dow Jones (DJI: ^DJI) and Nasdaq (Nasdaq: ^IXIC) has been similar. What about dividend yields?If the March 2009 lows marked a true market bottom, dividend payments should have increased somewhat proportionally to stock prices. They didn't. In fact, yields today are lower than they were at the March 2009 bottom.In March 2009 the dividend yield for S&P 500 constituents was 3.6%. By multiplying 3.6% with the March 2009 low of 666 we arrive at a dividend yield of 23.98 points. In October 2010, the S&P yielded 1.97%. Based on an S&P at 1,200 points, this represented 23.64 points, 0.34 points less than at the March 2009 bottom.Hunting after yield without considering the risk at current prices is similar to maxing out your credit cards just to rack up frequent flier miles. The return comes at a (long-term) cost.Beware of the Earnings TrapIn my humble opinion, earnings are more than just a trap, they are a minefield. According to the numbers we are fed, earnings have already surpassed the threshold reached at the peak of the dot-com bubble and are projected to eclipse even the 2007 all-time record high in 2011.If this doesn't strike you as odd, take a moment to examine the chart below. Leading up to the 2007 stock market and earnings high, we had consistent GDP growth (not historically great but steady). The real unemployment rate (U-6, published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics) was 8.4%.[chart]Today, GDP is sputtering (and inflated by government subsidies) and U-6 unemployment has more than doubled to 17%. For those who prefer to go by the media's more palatable U-3 jobless number, it has soared from below 4.7% to 9.6%. Does that look like the kind of environment that would produce record high earnings?I don't think it would be presumptuous to wonder if financial engineering and massaging the books has something to do with high earnings. Remember the 157 rule change which allows banks (NYSEArca: KBE - News) to hide real estate losses (see June 2010 ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter for a detailed analysis).Even when assuming that current earnings are for real, the P/E ratio (high earnings translate into a lower P/E ratio) is still historically elevated. Admittedly not as much out of line as a year ago, but still high.

Don't Bet Against Valuations

Buying into an overvalued market and expecting a long-term gain, is like sowing seed in the winter and expecting to reap in the summer - it doesn't work that way.Of course, over the short-term, markets can defy valuations and make disciplined investors look like temporary fools. But, as the 2000 and 2008 declines have shown, there are no shortcuts to long-term success.The most intriguing facet of dividend yields and P/E ratios is that they tend to pinpoint major market bottoms. All historic market bottoms had one thing in common: super high dividend yields and ridiculously low P/E ratios.Based on this historic clue, the March 2009 bottom looks more like a fake than a major bottom. Just as ice doesn't thaw unless the temperature rises above 32 degrees, the market doesn't bottom until P/E ratios and dividend yields signal that a valuation reset has occurred.The December issue of the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter includes a detailed analysis of P/E ratios, dividend yields, and two other benchmarks of value-based forecasting plotted against historic charts of the S&P 500 and Dow Jones.A picture paints more than a thousand words, and the featured chart shows how overvalued stocks are and how far they have to drop before a sustainable new bull market can begin.’

Reality check for Fed forecasts (Reuters) - Reuters - The U.S. economy, to mix two Federal Reserve catch phrases, may be disappointingly slow for an extended period.

Largest-ever insider trading probe targets Goldman Sachs Insider-trading charges are being prepared against a vast network of consultants and traders across the US financial industry in a years-long probe that a report suggests will reveal a pervasive culture of backroom dealing.

Ireland fears civil unrest as bank crisis deepens One of Ireland’s biggest trade unions warned today that the nation was on the brink of civil unrest as government officials negotiated a multibillion euro bailout for the country’s ailing banks.

Geithner warns GOP: politicizing the Federal Reserve could ‘hurt credibility’ [ Riiiiight! This coming from an administration without an credibility whatsoever! ‘No recession as per b.s. ben shalom bernanke? The natiion’s living it! ]Bloomberg | Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said the Obama administration would oppose any effort to strip the Federal Reserve of its mandate and warned Republicans against politicizing the central bank.

US STOCKS-Futures rise after news of Irish bailout [ Oh come on! This long discounted many times previously / over is a non-event vis-à-vis the u.s. economy other than pointing to the weakness of the global economy and the dire fiscal predicament of the nations therein, particularly pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt america. ]

Weekly Market Forecast: Risk Back On Edition Summers ‘Last week’s rally occurred for one reason and one reason only: options expiration week. I’ve detailed this phenomenon countless times, but the primary point is that EVERY month, Wall Street shreds options traders by pushing the market this way and that to insure the maximum number of options contracts expire worthless. As the below chart shows, last week was no exception with both the puts and calls taking it on the chin in succession. In particular, Wall Street gunned for 1,200 on the S&P 500. [Chart] Again, none of this action was related to anything fundamental or economic in the world: it was option contract shredding by Wall Street and that’s that. Of course, the ramp job occurring on the 18th coincided with the US Dollar dropping when it hit up against the upper trend-line of its recent downward trading channel: [Chart] This rejection was in turn precipitated by the Euro bouncing at the lower trend-line (135) of its own upward trading channel (the Euro accounts for over 50% of the US Dollar index and consequently the two currencies trade in near perfect inverse correlation). [Chart] In many ways, this move was to be expected. The Euro had fallen pretty far pretty fast. The main issue now is whether the currency can rally to break above resistance at 137.5. This line acted as strong former support multiple times in the last few months, so it should now act as strong resistance. In this context, we could see a tad more upside in stocks as the Euro rallies to challenge 137.5 (which would coincide with the US Dollar falling to test 78). However, at that point the risk-off trade should return with a vengeance with the US Dollar rallying strongly and the Euro falling (along with equities and commodities). If this DOESN’T happen, then the US Dollar has serious trouble as a violation of 76 would break its multi-year trend-line. [Chart] This would trigger a serious potential “flight from the Dollar” pattern in the form of a massive Head and Shoulders that has been forming in the US Dollar over the last 20 years. [Chart] In closing, keep your eyes glued to the Euro. The markets seem to view the Irish bailout as a “positive” for the currency. If this view results in the European currency breaking above 37.5, then the inflation trade is back on with a vengeance and the US Dollar could potentially be in SERIOUS trouble.’

Bernanke Admits QE2 May Fail, Requests Fiscal Stimulus Now Lenzner ‘Kudos to Dr. Sherry Cooper, Executive Vice President and Chief Economist, BMO Financial Group. She read Ben Bernanke’s ECB address in Germany on Friday– and discovered that the inventor of Quantitative Easing I and II admitted that his monetary policy may not assure economic recovery– what his critics have been carping about or weeks now.Unnoticed by most was Bernanke’s carefully phrased suggestion that a further fiscal stimulus is necessary. And since no-one has a finer view of the unfolding economic scenario, we ought to take the Fed Chairman’s warning as deadly serious.“The Federal Reserve is nonpartisan and does not make recommendations regarding specific tax and spending programs,” Bernanke stated. ” However, in general terms, a fiscal program that combines near-term measures to enhance growth with strong, confidence-inducing steps to reduce longer-term structural deficits would be an important complement to the policies of the Federal Reserve.”Clearly, Bernanke has doubts that the $600 billion program to purchase securities may not properly affect the yields on acquired securities and “via substitution effects in investors’ portfolios, on a wider range of assets.” Stunning, that admission.He also chose last Friday at the ECB to retreat on the notion that “quantitative easing” is the accurate term to use in describing Fed policy. Stunning that he was backing off the phrasing used to describe his policy. Wow!Clearly, Bernanke is worried about longer-term unemployment becoming “intractable long-term structural unemployment.” He reckons it “could threaten the strength and sustainability of the recovery.”Shocking that there has been no appropriate clamor at the White House, at Treasury, on Wall Street, in Congress, on cable TV– to motivate public opinion for another fiscal stimulus. NO matter what the Republican nabobs say. This is one of the most overlooked issues of our time.Household net worth is over $12 trillion less– yes, that’s $12 trillion– less than it was 3 years ago– a shocking, rocking, sickening loss of 18.5% of household net worth. Wake up everyone. The Fed Chairman has come clean about prospects.For more insight into Bernanke’s controversial policy, you would be wise to read Stephen Robert’s column examining the fallacy of QE2 and fingering other troubling ramifications of it. Robert is the former Chairman and CEO of the Oppenheimer group of mutual funds.’

Crisis of Fiat Currencies: US Dollar Surpluses Converted into Gold Something is going on that your government does not want you to know about. Very few journalists have written about it and little or nothing has appeared in the mainstream media. The story could be one of major stories of our time.

‘Credibility of the Fed’ Under Historic Attack: Mishkin The Federal Reserve is undergoing what former central bank governor Frederic Mishkin is calling an unprecedented level of attacks caused by its inability to articulate a clear message regarding its multitrillion-dollar monetary policies.

Economist: TSA screenings will kill Americans on highways The TSA’s intrusive new screenings will result in more deaths on highways, says an economist with St. Lawrence University in New York state.

International Soccer Star: Reclaim Your Power By Pulling Your Money Out of Your Bank on December 7th Most Americans haven’t heard of him, but Eric Cantona is a huge international soccer star known throughout Europe and much of the world.

The 17 Things Worrying Investors Right Now
LLOYD'S WALL OF WORRY
WEEK OF NOVEMBER 15-19
WORRY COUNT: 17

CHINA: Kickin’ it purely “my way or the highway.” Especially treacherous on the rest of us as they are still building their highways.

THE PIIGS: Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain. FYI: News of their demise has been greatly…delayed.

CALIFORNIA AND THE OTHER 49 STATES: Automakers – done. Banks – done. Next on line at the bailout window: Muni Bonds

. “Please step up to the white line.”

QE II: In the popularity ratings still more dear than a root canal but not by much.

U.S. ECONOMY: This aging heavyweight looks to be making a comeback but don’t expect any championship belts.

UNEMPLOYMENT: The good news is we added 151,000 new jobs. The bad news is that's about 100,000 less than needed to keep us from sinking deeper into the jobless quicksand pit.

TAXES: Extend and Pretend-- it ain't just for loans anymore.

HEALTHCARE REFORM: “If I were a cheese what kind of cheese would I be? Umm…that would be Swiss.” Give it a year or so.

OBAMA ADMINISTRATION PART II: “Heavy lies the crown.”

XMAS 2010: Praying the Repo Man doesn’t tow away Santa’s sleigh until after he brings some good cheer. Stack of $20s for me, KK!

CURRENCIES: No longer a race to the bottom. More like a slow bumpy roll down into death valley.

HOUSING CRISIS: The reset button doesn’t seem to be working here. Might I suggest bulldozers and bonfires?

INFLATION/DEFLATION: The Fed’s inflation wish will come true. And then, like old luggage and my gut, it will be with us for a long time.

G20 MEETING: Granted I wasn’t expecting any Gold Medals for the U.S., I wasn’t expecting a disqualification smack down either.

TERRORISM: I knew there was a reason I always hated changing the toner cartridge.

COMMODITIES: Trying to wrestle them down with higher margin requirements. You mean some people actually pay for these things?

HFT: High Frequency Trading -- a festering boil on our stock market but nothing a penny transaction tax wouldn’t clear up. Dr. SEC, we’re waiting…?

Who Will Any Form of Intermediate Term Wealth Effect Really Help? [ The so-called ‘wealth effect touted by no-recession helicopter ben‘ is just a continuation of the fraudulent wall street bailout / subsidization churn-and-earn scam / fraud. Bill Fleckenstein Has Some Thoughts On QE2: “These Idiots Think We Can Print Our Way To Prosperity” ( I disagree! I believe they are well aware of the folly of their fraudulent and ultimately disastrous approach but are, as in the last debacle, creating a fraudulent bubble for the wall street frauds and insiders to sell into, which they are indeed doing as we speak. (INSIDER SELLING IS AT RECORD HIGHS) (Another Nobel Economist Says We Have to Prosecute Fraud Or Else the Economy Won’t Recover As economists such as William Black and James Galbraith have repeatedly said, we cannot solve the economic crisis unless we throw the criminals who committed fraud in jail. ) ] Fed to pump $600B into the economy (Washington Post) [ Listen to this total, absolute b*** s*** … from no-recession-helicopter ben shalom or b.s. for short, bernanke, with green shoots wilting on the vine … to his recent ‘better to try and fail than to do nothing at all’ … Balderdash! … I hearken back to a distinction made by the brilliant Peter Drucker who in emphasizing the distinction between efficiency and effectiveness states that being effective means doing the right things, clearly not the case here … other than frothing that fraudulent wall street market with high-frequency programmed trades and debased dollars he can’t seem to print enough of, and for all but wall frauds churn and earn profits as they retain their fraudulent gains from the last debacle and this one, his policies are nothing short of disaster for this nation and the world. That money going into wall street pockets has to come from somewhere … guess. Remember, america’s defacto bankrupt and the consequences for those continuing frauds on wall street don’t justify the irretrievable costs! ] In addition to a question for Bloomberg TV anchor Betty Lui, who asked Bill to “admit” that “the markets were in a better mood yesterday after QE2,” which is simply this: “Betty? Betty? Betty? How about in summer 2008, 2007, were the markets in a good mood? Were the markets in a good mood then?” Quite right! The same pattern that preceded the last crash. Falling dollar, high volume programmed high frequency trades to the upside creating an even larger, gravity-defying bubble for the wall street frauds and insiders to sell into. They’re not too big or important to fail and jail! Prospective economic health depends on that reality! ]

John Hussman: Bubble, Crash, Bubble, Crash, Bubble... [ This really is the story and far worse than the bad scenario presented herefter by Hussman in light of the debased dollar and the inflated earnings and lower P / E ratios thereby, etc. ] Excerpt from the Hussman Funds' Weekly Market Comment (11/8/10):

‘We will continue this cycle until we catch on. The problem isn't only that the Fed is treating the symptoms instead of the disease. Rather, by irresponsibly promoting reckless speculation, misallocation of capital, moral hazard (careless lending without repercussions), and illusory "wealth effects," the Fed has become the disease ... It is difficult to interpret Bernanke's defense of QE2 as anything else but an attempt to replace the recent bubble with yet another - to drive already overvalued risky assets to further overvaluation in hopes that consumers will view the "wealth" as permanent. The problem here is that unlike housing, which consumers had viewed as immune from major price declines, investors have observed two separate stock market plunges of over 50% each, within the past decade alone. While investors have obviously demonstrated an aptitude for ignoring risk over short periods of time, it is a simple fact that raising the price of a risky asset comes at the sacrifice of lower long-term returns, except when there is a proportional increase in the long-term stream cash flows that can be expected from the security. As a result of Bernanke's actions, investors now own higher priced securities that can be expected to deliver commensurately lower long-term returns, leaving their lifetime "wealth" unaffected, but exposing them to enormous risk of price declines over the intermediate (2-5 year) horizon. This is not a basis on which consumers are likely to shift their spending patterns. What Bernanke doesn't seem to absorb is that stocks are nothing but a claim on a long-term stream of cash flows that investors expect to be delivered over time. Propping up the price of stocks changes the distribution of long-term investment returns, but it doesn't materially affect the cash flows. This reckless policy has done nothing but to promote further overvaluation of already overvalued assets. The current Shiller P/E above 22 has historically been associated with subsequent total returns in the S&P 500 of less than 5% annually, on average, over every investment horizon shorter than a decade ... We are betting on the wrong horse. When the Fed acts outside of the role of liquidity provision, it does more harm than good. Worse, we have somehow accepted a situation where the Fed's actions are increasingly independent of our democratically elected government. Bernanke's unsound leadership has placed the nation's economic stability on two pillars: inflated asset prices, and actions that - in Bernanke's own words - should be "correctly viewed as an end run around the authority of the legislature" (see below). The right horse is ourselves, and the ability of our elected representatives to create an economic environment that encourages productive investment, research, development, infrastructure, and education, while avoiding policies that promote speculation, discourage work, or defend reckless lenders from experiencing losses on bad investments.’

Insiders selling (into the bubble as preceded last crash), this is an especially great opportunity to sell / take profits! Suckers’ rally (off lows on full moon influence into the close) to keep suckers suckered (easy for the wall street frauds to do with just a mouse click / push of the button – and, they know all those technical trade lines that are easy to program in this current phase of the scam/fraud with the debased dollar). Keep in mind, the totally mindless blather from the ‘cottage industries’ of and fraudulent wall street itself in talking up lower P/E multiples when the same is a direct result of the debasement of the dollar and the consequent manipulation / translation (not real, see Davis, infra) which preceded the financial crisis / last crash. Unemployment, trade, deficit, etc., numbers continue decidedly worse than expected along with other negative data (and in the ‘wrong direction’, that spin accorded ‘down but not as bad as before’ b*** s*** ) yet the market has rallied like no tomorrow with used home foreclosure / distressed sales, though abated owing to ‘foreclosuregate’, the other ‘heralded’ good news. Moreover, the dumbo lemmings of Europe have jumped on the fraudulent defacto bankrupt american crazy train propelled to the precipice also as if no tomorrow. This is about keeping the suckers sucked in with the help of a market-frothing pre-election debased dollar for favorable currency translation and paper (but not real when measured in, ie., gold, etc.) profits which preceded the last crisis, inflating a bubble as in the last crisis to facilitate the churn-and-earn, particularly with computerized (and high frequency) trades and which commissions they’ll get again on the way down. There is nothing to support these overbought stock prices, fundamentally or otherwise. These are desperate criminals ‘at work’. Even wall street shill, the senile Buffett is saying we’re still in a recession (depression) [ Davis: ‘… all profits are inflated by 10% (from falling, debased dollar) and that 10% is the E that gets divided from the P and gives us a much better price/multiple to hang our hats on and that gets investors to BUYBUYBUY …’ The bull market that never was / were beyond wall street b.s. when measured in gold ] This is a great opportunity to sell / take profits (these lower dollar, hyperinflationary currency manipulations / translations to froth paper stocks will end quite badly as in last crash)! This is a global depression. This is a secular bear market in a global depression. The past up moves were manipulated bull (s***) cycles (at best) in a secular bear market. This has been a typically manipulated bubble as has preceded the prior crashes with great regularity that the wall street frauds and insiders commission and sell into. This is a typical wall street ‘programmed computerized high-frequency churn and earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud as in prior crashes ( widely reported, high-frequency trading routinely accounts for more than 50% of daily U.S. equity trading volume and regularly approaches 70%. )’. This national decline, economic and otherwise, will not end until justice is served and the wall street frauds et als are criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed.The Stock Market's Long Decline Has Begun Smith ]

(11-22-10) Dow 11,178 -25 Nasdaq 2,532 +13 S&P 500 1,197 -2 [CLOSE- OIL $81.74 (-54% for year 2008) (RECORD TRADING HIGH $147.27) GAS $3.00 (reg. gas in LAND OF FRUITS AND NUTS $3.15 REG./ $3.29 MID-GRADE/ $3.39 PREM./ $3.79 DIESEL) / GOLD $1,365 (+24% for year 2009) / SILVER $27.76 (+47% for year 2009) PLATINUM $1,660 (+56% for year 2009) / DOLLAR= .73 EURO, 83 YEN, .62 POUND STERLING, ETC. (How low can you go - LOWER)/ 10 YR NOTE YIELD 2.81% …..… AP Business Highlights ...Yahoo Market Update... T. Rowe Price Weekly Recap – Stocks / Bonds / Currencies - Domestic / International This Is a Secular Bear Market and The End of Buy and Hold … and Hope MARKET MANIPULATION AND HOW THE LATEST BUBBLE-FRAUD PRE-COMING CRASH IS BEING ACCOMPLISHED 3-11-10 6 Theories On Why the Stock Market Has Rallied 3-9-10 [archived website file] Risks Lurk for ETF Investors The bull market that never was/were beyond wall street b.s. when measured in gold Property Values Projected to Fall 12% in 2010 Jan 31, 2010 The Week Ahead: Risk Is Off the Cliff; Unwind Has Begun Jan 31, 2010 01-13-10 Forecast for 2010 from Seeking Alpha Contributor THE COMING MARKET CRASH / CORRECTION 1-28-10 Maierhofer (01-15-10) 11 Clear Signs Economy Sinking Economic Black Hole 1-22-10: 20 Reasons Why The U.S. Economy Is Dying And Is Simply Not Going To Recover Current Economic / Fiscal Charts Trendsresearch.com forecast for 2009 1-7-10 Crash is coming! ‘WORST ECONOMIC COLLAPSE EVER’ Must Read Economic / Financial Data This Depression is just beginning The coming depression… thecomingdepression.net MUST READ: JEREMY GRANTHAM’S QUARTERLY UPDATE 25 January 2010 (850 on the S&P) by TPC The Next Wave of Collapse is Coming Sooner than you think Sliding Back Into the Great Depression ABSOLUTELY, ABSURDLY, RIDICULOUS! SELL / TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME!

`WSJ: U.S. in Vast Insider Trading Probe...` By SUSAN PULLIAM, MICHAEL ROTHFELD,JENNY STRASBURG and GREGORY ZUCKERMAN ‘Federal authorities, capping a three-year investigation, are preparing insider-trading charges that could ensnare consultants, investment bankers, hedge-fund and mutual-fund traders and analysts across the nation, according to people familiar with the matter.The criminal and civil probes, which authorities say could eclipse the impact on the financial industry of any previous such investigation, are examining whether multiple insider-trading rings reaped illegal profits totaling tens of millions of dollars, the people say. Some charges could be brought before year-end, they say. The investigations, if they bear fruit, have the potential to expose a culture of pervasive insider trading in U.S. financial markets, including new ways non-public information is passed to traders through experts tied to specific industries or companies, federal authorities say.One focus of the criminal investigation is examining whether nonpublic information was passed along by independent analysts and consultants who work for companies that provide "expert network" services to hedge funds and mutual funds. These companies set up meetings and calls with current and former managers from hundreds of companies for traders seeking an investing edge.On the InsideThe New Age of Insider Information on Wall Street. Among the expert networks whose consultants are being examined, the people say, is Primary Global Research LLC, a Mountain View, Calif., firm that connects experts with investors seeking information in the technology, health-care and other industries. "I have no comment on that," said Phani Kumar Saripella, Primary Global's chief operating officer. Primary's chief executive and chief operating officers previously worked at Intel Corp., according to its website.In another aspect of the probes, prosecutors and regulators are examining whether Goldman Sachs Group Inc. bankers leaked information about transactions, including health-care mergers, in ways that benefited certain investors, the people say. Goldman declined to comment.Independent analysts and research boutiques also are being examined. John Kinnucan, a principal at Broadband Research LLC in Portland, Ore., sent an email on Oct. 26 to roughly 20 hedge-fund and mutual-fund clients telling of a visit by the Federal Bureau of Investigation."Today two fresh faced eager beavers from the FBI showed up unannounced (obviously) on my doorstep thoroughly convinced that my clients have been trading on copious inside information," the email said. "(They obviously have been recording my cell phone conversations for quite some time, with what motivation I have no idea.) We obviously beg to differ, so have therefore declined the young gentleman's gracious offer to wear a wire and therefore ensnare you in their devious web." The email, which Mr. Kinnucan confirms writing, was addressed to traders at, among others: hedge-fund firms SAC Capital Advisors LP and Citadel Asset Management, and mutual-fund firms Janus Capital Group, Wellington Management Co. and MFS Investment Management. SAC, Wellington and MFS declined to comment; Janus and Citadel didn't immediately comment. It isn't known whether clients are under investigation for their business with Mr. Kinnucan.The investigations have been conducted by federal prosecutors in New York, the FBI and the Securities and Exchange Commission. Representatives of the Manhattan U.S. Attorney's office, the FBI and the SEC declined to comment.Another aspect of the probe is an examination of whether traders at a number of hedge funds and trading firms, including First New York Securities LLC, improperly gained nonpublic information about pending health-care, technology and other merger deals, according to the people familiar with the matter.Some traders at First New York, a 250-person trading firm, profited by anticipating health-care and other mergers unveiled in 2009, people familiar with the firm say. A First New York spokesman said: "We are one of more than three dozen firms that have been asked by regulators to provide general information in a widespread inquiry; we have cooperated fully." He added: "We stand behind our traders and our systems and policies in place that ensure full regulatory compliance."Key parts of the probes are at a late stage. A federal grand jury in New York has heard evidence, say people familiar with the matter. But as with all investigations that aren't completed, it's unclear what specific charges, if any, might be brought.[chart]The action is an outgrowth of a focus on insider trading by Preet Bharara, the Manhattan U.S. Attorney. In an October speech, Mr. Bharara said the area is a "top criminal priority" for his office, adding: "Illegal insider trading is rampant and may even be on the rise." Mr. Bharara declined to comment.Expert-network firms hire current or former company employees, as well as doctors and other specialists, to be consultants to funds making investment decisions. More than a third of institutional investment-management firms use expert networks, according to a late-2009 survey by Integrity Research Associates LLC in New York.The consultants typically earn several hundred dollars an hour for their services, which can include meetings or phone calls with traders to discuss developments in their company or industry. The expert-network companies say internal policies bar their consultants from disclosing confidential information.Generally, inside traders profit by buying stocks of acquisition targets before deals are announced and selling after the targets' shares rise in value.The SEC has been investigating potential leaks on takeover deals going back to at least 2007 amid an explosion of deals leading up to the financial crisis. The SEC sent subpoenas last fall to more than 30 hedge funds and other investors.“Today two fresh faced eager beavers from the FBI showed up unannounced (obviously) on my doorstep thoroughly convinced that my clients have been trading on copious inside information.... We obviously beg to differ, so have therefore declined the young gentleman's gracious offer to wear a wire and therefore ensnare you in their devious web.” John Kinnucan, of Broadband Research, in an Oct. 26 email to clients Some subpoenas were related to trading in Schering-Plough Corp. stock before its takeover by Merck & Co. in 2009, say people familiar with the matter. Schering-Plough stock rose 8% the trading day before the deal plan was announced and 14% the day of the announcement. Merck said it "has a long-standing practice of fully cooperating with any regulatory inquiries and has explicit policies prohibiting the sharing of confidential information about the company and its potential partners."Transactions being focused on include MedImmune Inc.'s takeover by AstraZeneca Plc in 2007, the people say. MedImmune shares jumped 18% on Apr. 23, 2007, the day the deal was announced. A spokesman for AstraZeneca and its MedImmune unit declined to comment. Investigators are also examining the role of Goldman bankers in trading in shares of Advanced Medical Optics Inc., which was taken over by Abbott Laboratories in 2009, according to the people familiar with the matter. Advanced Medical Optics's shares jumped 143% on Jan. 12, 2009, the day the deal was announced. Goldman advised MedImmune and Advanced Medical Optics on the deals.A spokesman for AstraZeneca and its MedImmune unit declined to comment. In subpoenas, the SEC has sought information about communications—related to Schering-Plough and other deals—with Ziff Brothers, Jana Partners LLC, TPG-Axon Capital Management, Prudential Financial Inc.'s Jennison Associates asset-management unit, UBS AG's UBS Financial Services Inc. unit, and Deutsche Bank AG, according to subpoenas and the people familiar with the matter. Representatives of Ziff Brothers, Jana, TPG-Axon, Jennison, UBS and Deutsche Bank declined to comment.Among hedge-fund managers whose trading in takeovers is a focus of the criminal probe is Todd Deutsch, a top Wall Street trader who left Galleon Group in 2008 to go out on his own, the people close to the situation say. A spokesman for Mr. Deutsch, who has specialized in health-care and technology stocks, declined to comment. Prosecutors also are investigating whether some hedge-fund traders received inside information about Advanced Micro Devices Inc., which figured prominently in the government's insider-trading case last year against Galleon Group hedge fund founder Raj Rajaratnam and 22 other defendants.Fourteen defendants have pleaded guilty in the Galleon case; Mr. Rajaratnam has pleaded not guilty and is expected to go to trial in early 2011. Among those whose AMD transactions have been scrutinized is hedge-fund manager Richard Grodin. Mr. Grodin, who received a subpoena last fall, didn't return calls. An AMD spokesman declined to comment.’

National / World

Patience with Palin? Michael S. Rozeff | I see her as a phony and an extremely dangerous person, just as dangerous as Bush and Obama [ I quite agree! He is absolutely correct. ]

TSA Searches: Are Trains and Subways Next? John Pistole, the TSA boss, has implored activists to rethink their “opt-out” protest this week. Pistole warns that the national protest against naked body scanners and intrusive pat downs at airports would be a mistake and will only serve to “tie up people who want to go home and see their loved ones,” according to the Associated Press.

ABC producer says TSA agent felt inside her underwear As the busiest travel days of the year approach, more and more passengers are accusing the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) of going too far with their screenings.

Blinding Hypocrisy: Insouciant Americans In a recent column, “The Stench of American Hypocrisy,” I noted that US public officials and media are on their high horse about the rule of law in Burma while the rule of law collapses unremarked in the US. Americans enjoy beating up other peoples for American sins. Indeed, hypocrisy has become the defining characteristic of the United States.

Beck: Obama Will Blame Terror Attack On TSA Resistance In little noticed comments made during an appearance on Judge Andrew Napolitano’s show on Fox News, Glenn Beck warned that the Obama administration wouldn’t hesitate to exploit a terror attack targeting airliners to blame the event on people protesting naked body scanners and TSA groping in airports.

St. Louis tops list of most dangerous US cities (AP) TRENTON, N.J. – St. Louis overtook Camden, N.J., as the nation's most dangerous city in 2009, according to a national study released Sunday.The study by CQ Press found St. Louis had 2,070.1 violent crimes per 100,000 residents, compared with a national average of 429.4. That helped St. Louis beat out Camden, which topped last year's list and was the most dangerous city for 2003 and 2004.Detroit, Flint, Mich., and Oakland, Calif., rounded out the top five. For the second straight year, the safest city with more than 75,000 residents was Colonie, N.Y.The annual rankings are based on population figures and crime data compiled by the FBI. Some criminologists question the findings, saying the methodology is unfair.Greg Scarbro, unit chief of the FBI's Uniform Crime Reporting Program, said the FBI also discourages using the data for these types of rankings.Kara Bowlin, spokeswoman for St. Louis Mayor Francis Slay, said the city actually has been getting safer over the last few years. She said crime in St. Louis has gone down each year since 2007, and so far in 2010, St. Louis crime is down 7 percent.Erica Van Ross, spokeswoman for the St. Louis Police Department, called the rankings irresponsible."Crime is based on a variety of factors. It's based on geography, it's based on poverty, it's based on the economy," Van Ross said."That is not to say that urban cities don't have challenges, because we do," Van Ross said. "But it's that it's irresponsible to use the data in this way." [ See the lists here http://albertpeia.com/listssafestdangerouscities.htm ]

TSA Searches: Are Trains and Subways Next? Kurt Nimmo | Pistole would like to see TSA workers operate as a “national-security, counterterrorism organization, fully integrated into U.S. government efforts.”

Beck: Obama Will Blame Terror Attack On TSA Resistance Paul Joseph Watson | Fox News host warns that administration is preparing to exploit event to squelch resistance to airport security.

TSA needs false flag security incident to convince Americans to accept obscene pat-downs Mike Adams | The formula works like a charm for everything from pushing flu vaccines to justifying a war.

Crisis of Fiat Currencies: US Dollar Surpluses Converted into Gold Bob Chapman | Western powers have tried to destroy gold as a backing for currencies for many years.

TSA Tactics Find Ominous Parallel in Nazi Germany Kurt Nimmo | Left unchallenged, government invariably evolves into a tyrannical force at odds with the interest of the people.

Young Boy Strip Searched by TSA You Tube | The father tried several times to just hold the boys arms out for the TSA agent but I guess it didn’t end up being enough for the guy.

Jesse Ventura’s Conspiracy Theory: JFK Assassination Federal Jack | Jesse adds new explosive information to the assassination conspiracy theory.

TSA Warns Travelers May Be Arrested, Detained, and Fined for Refusing Search Kurt Nimmo | TSA announces it will enlist local police to detain people who refuse dangerous naked body scans and molestation of their private parts.

‘JFK Deathbed Confession’ reaches #1 on Google Ahead of Ventura TV program Aaron Dykes | Former Gov. Jesse Ventura appeared on the Alex Jones Show today to inform the world about the earth-shattering info that will air tonight on TruTV, prompting a #1 search term.

Drudgereport: Pessimistic Fed to slash growth forecasts... Ireland Second Euro Nation to Request International Aid as Banks Wobble... Protesters break through front gate of PM's office...
Rescue Would Dwarf Greek Bailout...
Portugal on the brink...
Spain Will Be 'the Biggie...HANDS ON BOY TSA WORKERS FEAR BACKLASHGLORIA ALLRED: I LIKED BEING FELT-UP AND FINGERED!Ireland to Seek EU-Led Bailout; Works to Avert Bank 'Collapse'... WSJ: U.S. in Vast Insider Trading Probe...

Lame duck Dem governor in Iowa OKs $100 million in raises for state workers...

BUFFETT: 'Rich' Americans Should Be Paying 'a Lot' More in Taxes...

A united goal: Saving the tiger (Washington Post) [ Clearly the wisdom of an historically great leader for the ages, Vladimir V. Putin should be given great deference in all matters of global concern. Having evolved from his youthful indiscretion as a novice KGB agent, a hand dealt to him (by a soviet communist system) more than chosen, he has reminded the world of the greatness that was, is, and forever will be Russia’s and His! ] The tale of the magnificent Siberian tiger, and its unfinished fight for survival, should be a compelling one for the 500 conservationists and world leaders arriving for Russian Prime Minister Vladimir V. Putin's tiger summit this weekend. Protecting where the wild things are Washington Post - Kathy Lally - ‎IN MOSCOW The tale of the magnificent Siberian tiger, and its unfinished fight for survival, should be a compelling one for the 500 conservationists and world leaders arriving for Prime Minister Vladimir Putin's tiger summit this weekend ... 13 nations meet to try to save wild tigers CNN International Putin, Wen, other leaders in bid to save the tiger Reuters

NATO members pledge to fight (to continue their) terrorism (Washington Post) [ Come on! Wars based on lies, war crimes, etc., and resistance / blowback called terrorism? Really! Nato’s almost to a nation suckin’ wind! Yeah, defacto bankrupt like america, almost to a nation they are. How pathetic! How tragic for the world! ] The U.S.-led NATO alliance declared Friday that it will focus on antimissile defenses and fighting terrorism in Afghanistan and "around the globe." Washington Post Foreign Service Thursday, November 18, 2010; 3:42 PM MOSCOW - Russians are mystified. They can't quite believe the U.S. Senate might fail to ratify the nuclear arms treaty, and they see no good from such an outcome… And think of how the United States - and particularly Obama - would look, Rogov said. "The fact that America can't deliver on its promises would harm its standing around the world," he said. "And if START is not ratified, the [2009] Nobel Peace Prize would look very funny indeed." [ War crimes, torture, illegal wars, pervasively corrupt, massive frauds with global consequences, etc.; the world has looked … america and wobama et als look quite bad indeed! ]

After Black Friday, here comes 'Small Business Saturday' (Washington Post) [ Riiiiight! … and online Monday. We might even run short on pom-poms for cheer-leaders of these fraudulent wall street’s b.s. talking points heralded non-events since, with the exception of few high-end niche small-box sellers, there’s no competing with big-box China-product sales agents / distributors as Walmart, etc.. ] A new event seeks to bring local retailers out of the shadows of their big-box counterparts.

Congress's latest awful tech-policy idea (Washington Post) [ I agree! Drudgereport: `Web Censorship Bill Sails Through Senate Committee...` [ I believe this to be a backdoor censorship ploy by the government. This is particularly so in light of jay rockefeller’s outrageous statements! ]‘ `… In` short, COICA would allow the federal government to censor the internet without due process… Scholars, lawyers, technologists, human rights groups and public interest groups have denounced the bill. Forty-nine prominent law professors called it “dangerous.” (pdf.) The American Civil Liberties Union and Human Rights Watch warned the bill could have “grave repercussions for global human rights.” (pdf.) Several dozen of the most prominent internet engineers in the country — many of whom were instrumental in the creation of the internet — said the bill will “create an environment of tremendous fear and uncertainty for technological innovation.” (pdf.) Several prominent conservative bloggers, including representatives from RedState.com, HotAir.com, The Next Right and Publius Forum, issued a call to help stop this “serious threat to the Internet.”And Tim Berners-Lee, who invented the world wide web, said, “Neither governments nor corporations should be allowed to use disconnection from the internet as a way of arbitrarily furthering their own aims.” He added: “In the spirit going back to Magna Carta, we require a principle that no person or organization shall be deprived of their ability to connect to others at will without due process of law, with the presumption of innocence until found guilty.”Critics of the bill object to it on a number of grounds, starting with this one: “The Act is an unconstitutional abridgment of the freedom of speech protected by the First Amendment,” the 49 law professors wrote. “The Act permits the issuance of speech suppressing injunctions without any meaningful opportunity for any party to contest the Attorney General’s allegations of unlawful content.” (original emphasis.)Because it is so ill-conceived and poorly written, the law professors wrote, “the Act, if enacted into law, will not survive judicial scrutiny, and will, therefore, never be used to address the problem (online copyright and trademark infringement) that it is designed to address. Its significance, therefore, is entirely symbolic — and the symbolism it presents is ugly and insidious. For the first time, the United States would be requiring Internet Service Providers to block speech because of its content.”The law professors noted that the bill would actually undermine United States policy, enunciated forcefully by Secretary of State Clinton, which calls for global internet freedom and opposes web censorship. “Censorship should not be in any way accepted by any company anywhere,” Clinton said in her landmark speech on global internet freedom earlier this year. She was referring to China. Apparently some of Mrs. Clinton’s former colleagues in the U.S. Senate approve of internet censorship in the United States…’ `FCC TO MOVE ON WEB REGULATION...` ] Meet the "Combating Online Infringement and Counterfeits Act".

Audit: Pension agency needs strategy for workload surge (Washington Post) [ Workload volume? I’d be more concerned with treasury revenue volume inasmuch as this is a federal, state, nation, local, corporate (large and small) catastrophe, current and prospective as promises greatly exceed resources. ] The Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation "should arm itself with a well thought-out strategy for addressing surges in workload volume."

Bernanke hits back at critics (Washington Post) [ Mr. Irwin’s apt description using ‘full-throated rebuttal’ as, hopefully, a very subtle shade of well-founded sarcasm and skepticism is indeed welcomed. After all, there is an air of desperation about b.s. ben shalom bernanke whose prediction of no-recession is to this day far short of the mark (indeed, even according to that shill of fraudulent wall street, senile buffet, we’re still in the midst of what’s now dubbed ‘The Great Recession’, which is in fact a depression and soon to be an unprecedented hyperinflationary depression at that. That bernanke now shifts gears if not blame for his incompetence (he hasn’t the slightest idea what he’s doing other than helping the frauds on wall street, an end in itself) by saying america can’t do it alone is indeed very telling. Send the incompetent bernanke back to the ivy league vegetable garden from whence he came. Abolish the fed! ] The Fed chairman's speech at a European Central Bank conference amounts to a full-throated rebuttal, a departure from the reserved tone he usually uses to discuss monetary policy.

The Economy Will Not Recover Until the Economic Criminals are Prosecuted, and There Are Real Investigations Into 9/11 and Other Government Failures Trust is essential for a stable economy; Trust is currently at an all-time low; Launching criminal prosecutions and real investigations is one of the main prerequisites for an economic recovery.

Sentiment Seems Excessively Bullish, Watch The Stock Charts Harding ‘The market is in what is usually its favorable season of November to May, when it typically makes most of its gains each year. But it hasn’t been that way so far. Among other worries, analysts are concerned that the market’s consistent annual seasonality of ‘Sell in May and Go Away (until November1)’ has failed to work over the last two months. The market topped out on schedule in late April and was down 16% by July. This fall it began what is historically the worst three-month period of the year, August, September and October, with a big decline in August, which was the worst August in years. But then, usually negative September and October turned out to be just about the most positive two months of the year. So can we be sure November, December, and January will follow their historical pattern of usually being the most positive months of the year? Or was the weakness that normally takes place in September and October postponed to November and December? (…ad…) November hasn’t started out well, with the S&P 500 down roughly 3% over the last two weeks. So, analysts are watching potential support and resistance levels. For instance, two weeks ago the S&P 500 had rallied all the way back to the level it reached at its April top. It has now pulled back from that potential resistance level, and in the process it broke below the previous support at its 21-day moving average for the first time since the rally began in early September.The question is whether it can break back up through the resistance at that moving average and establish it as support again, or if the moving average will now become overhead resistance that prevents the market from making further progress.Interesting enough, the market experienced a big triple-digit rally on Thursday that carried the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq back up almost to their 21-day moving averages in one day. But the rally stopped just short of those resistance levels. So the question is still out there. [chart] Normally, market analysts would not be focused on such short-term considerations. But a situation is also in place that might have intermediate-term implications, thus making how the market deals with the short-term support and resistance levels more important. SEC filings show that usually astute corporate insiders have been selling into the market strength of the last few months at a near record pace, even as investor groups that have a history of being wrong at market turning points (extremely bearish at market bottoms and extremely bullish at market tops) have taken the opposite position. For instance, mutual funds have a history of holding high levels of cash at market bottoms and being fully invested at market tops, and they have stepped up their buying in the last two months. Bank of America/Merrill Lynch reported this week that its latest poll of large fund managers, conducted between November 5 and November 11, found their sentiment to be the most bullish since April, that they have invested just about all they can, now holding on average only 3.5% of their investors’ assets in cash reserves to meet potential redemptions, one of the lowest levels of cash on record. The latest sentiment report by Investors Intelligence, which measures the sentiment of investment newsletters, shows 56.2% are bullish, only 20.2% bearish, the highest level of bullishness since December, 2007, which was a couple of months after the severe 2007-2009 bear market began. And the weekly poll of its members by the American Association of Individual Investors, showed sentiment had reached 57.6% bullish last week, its highest level in a number of years, higher than just before the 2007 bull market top (54.6% bullish), higher than just before the top in January of this year (49.2%) and higher than just before the April top (48.5% bullish).It plunged to only 40.0% bullish this week, which had some pundits saying, “Ah, that removes the risk from the investor sentiment side.” But unfortunately that’s not how it usually works.The market was down sharply last week and the first three days of this week. So sentiment would be expected to be less bullish this week. But once a warning level of bullishness has been reached, a return to lower levels doesn’t usually make any difference.For instance, at the bull market top in 2007, bullishness reached 54.6% on October 11. The market had already topped out two days earlier. The next weekly reading on the AAII poll showed a drop to 41.9% bullish, and two weeks later to only 31.2% bullish. Those subsequent drops in bullishness were of no importance, the 2007-2009 bear market was underway.Similarly, at the April top this year, the AAII poll reached its high of bullishness at 48.5% on April 15. It dropped to only 38.1% bullish the next week. But that was of no importance. The peak of bullishness had been reached. The market topped out into the April-July correction on April 23, a week after the high reading.So, analysts are probably justified in watching to see if the market can recover and break out above the potential resistance at short-term 21-day moving averages again.If not, and the potential top-out at the high two weeks ago remains in place, those high levels of bullish investor sentiment last week will take on more importance.’

No stock exchange for old, new GM shares (Washington Post) [ Well, if this headline stopped after ‘No stock exchange’ you got my attention (stamping out those wall street frauds would be a real step forward) … GM stock, not so much, not to rain on their parade. GM, Ford, and Chrysler in the face of stiff competition will have to cannibalize one another, unfortunately, given economic realities. ] General Motors will be issuing new stock, a signal that the company is emerging from the ashes like the mythical phoenix. Initial Jobless Claims Rise 2,000 [ Now how is this good news at this point in the ‘no-recession’ (bernanke) / great recession / depression? Oh yes, that ‘not as bad as expected’ dynamic. Then you have the fraudulent wall street shills, ie., the street, forbes, etc., talking this up as if reality as in the last bubble crash doesn’t exist. What this is is a great opportunity to get out of this fraudulent, manipulated churn-and-earn market that the wall street frauds and insiders use to commission and sell into. And, now that they’ve gotten the benefit of their IPO and the benefit of my doubt and without playing the role of spoiler (with reality), sell that GM stock, if you’re smart. ]

12 Facts That Will Blow Your Mind – Federal Employees And Members Of Congress Are Getting Rich While Those Of Us Who Pay Their Salaries Suffer Do you remember the days when getting elected to Congress or choosing to work for the government was referred to as “public service”? The idea was that you would be making a sacrifice for the greater good of the country.

Equities Update: Global Worries Keep U.S. Trade in Check Midnight Trader 4:11 PM, Nov 19, 2010 --

* DJIA up 22.32 (+0.2%) to 11,203.55

* S&P 500 up 3.04 (+0.25%) to 1,199.73

* Nasdaq up 3.72 (+0.15%) to 2,518.12

GLOBAL SENTIMENT

* Hang Seng down 0.13%

* Nikkei up 0.09%

* FTSE down 0.62%

UPSIDE MOVERS

(+) DELL gains on earnings.

(+) MELA jumps on drug developments.

(+) CRM continues evening gain after Q3 beat.

(+) LVS gains as Moody's hikes credit rating.

(+) ANN gains on earnings.

DOWNSIDE MOVERS

(-/+) F, GM trade mixed in wake of GM IPO, mixed analyst notes.

(-) IRE down as focus on Dublin bailout persists.

MARKET DIRECTION

A slate of better-than-expected earnings reports from tech firms Dell (DELL) and Salesforce.com (CRM) provided enough support to nudge up the Nasdaq on Friday, but the broader market carried little of that upside enthusiasm until a late buying binge sent the DJIA and S&P into positive territory. A move by China to tighten its monetary policy and continued wariness over Ireland's negotiations for an economic aid package out of Europe held markets in check for much of Friday's trade.

China's central bank hiked the reserve requirement ratio for banks by 50 basis points, an effort to crimp inflationary pressures. Separately, Ireland continued its negotiations with European agencies and the IMF, and all indications suggest the country will take a bailout package - a move that will take some of the European debt worries out of the spotlight in the near-term.

Looking out to next week, U.S. traders will see a holiday-shortened week as markets close Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday and open just a half-day on Friday. On Monday, earnings are due from Brocade (BRCD) and HP (HPQ). Campbell Soup Co. (CPB) posts financials on Tuesday followed by Deere (DE) and Tiffany (TIF) on Wednesday.

On the economic front, data is packed into just two days next week, with GDP and existing home sales due on Tuesday. On Wednesday, traders will get a look at personal income/spending; PCE prices; durable orders; initial claims; Michigan Sentiment; new home sales; crude inventories and minutes from the latest FOMC meeting.

Elsewhere in today's market, shares of Pfizer (PFE) and Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) were down following news the two stopped a trial of their experimental blood thinner after incidents of increased bleeding in patients outweighed benefits for patients who recently had a heart attack, or bad chest pain. The drug--named apixaban--is being tested to stop heat complications in patents with acute coronary syndrome.

Allied Irish Banks (AIB) ADRs were trading lower after it said deposits declined 17% this year as customers pulled money out amid the ongoing debt crisis in that country and around Europe. Deposits at the bank--Ireland's second largest--declined by about $17.8 billion euros since the beginning of the year. The bank said it is increasing its reliance on monetary authorities amid the challenging funding conditions.

Del Monte Foods (DLM) shares soared on reports KKR (KKR) is preparing an $18.50 a share offer for the company. Sources say the firms have been talking for some time and were hoping to wrap up the deal before Del Monte reports its quarterly earnings on Dec. 2.

Shares of General Motors (GM), which provided lift to the market yesterday, traded down modestly in the wake of its IPO pricing Thursday. GM advanced as much as 9.1% during its first day of trading since filing for bankruptcy last year. The U.S. Treasury and other GM owners sold $15.8 billion in common shares at an IPO price of $33 each, which was the second-largest U.S. IPO on record.

On the earnings front:

--Cost Plus (CPWM) says Q3 sales were $194.6 million, a 7.3% increase from a year ago. Net loss was $0.38 per share, down from a loss of $1 a year ago. Q4 sales are seen between $324 million to $330 million. EarningsWhispers says the consensus is for $329 million.

--Dell (DELL) was higher after the computer maker late Thursday reported its Q3 profit more than doubled and revenue surged to $15.4 billion from $12.9 billion.

--Foot Locker (FL) gained after reporting Q3 net income of $52 million, or $0.33 per share, easily beating an adjusted $16-million gain last year. The Street view was for a $0.17 per share profit, according to

Thomson Reuters.

--Salesforce.com (CRM) leaped higher after it reported Q3 non-GAAP EPS of 32 cents a share compared to Street estimates of 31 cents a share. The company reported revenue of $429 million compared to Street estimates of $410.46 million. Non-GAAP diluted EPS in Q4 is expected to be in the range of approximately $0.27 to approximately $0.28. The Street is at 28 cents a share.

Commodities finished lower as economic concerns--mostly from China's move to slow its economy--left gold futures fractionally higher while weighing on crude oil futures.

Crude oil for January delivery finished down $0.34, or 0.4%, at $81.51 a barrel. In other energy futures, heating oil was down 0.95% to $2.27 a gallon while natural gas rose 3.79%, to $1.15 per million British thermal units.

Gold futures had begun a small rally in late trading but still ended fractionally lower.

Gold for December delivery finished down $0.70 to $1,352.30 an ounce. In other metal futures, silver rose 0.5% to $27.04 a troy ounce while copper was down $0.01 to $3.83 a pound.’

Study Points To Rising Volatility In 3 Sectors & Emerging Markets Coleman ‘As we discussed earlier, the VIX was down yesterday.
Today, it also remained fairly calm, according to Dow Jones Newswires report. But several widely traded sector ETFs are showing much more anxious outlooks, especially over the past month.
In an updated report, Brendan Conway talked to analysts who pointed out that:

Volatility readings for popular ETFs on materials, technology and financials each rose by double digits, according to a BNY ConvergEx Group study.
Bearish put volume on the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index Fund (EEM) leapt to its highest level in months. “A put conveys the right to sell shares at a fixed price and can be used to guard against or speculative on the chance that a stock or index moves lower,” wrote Conway.

EEM closed today up 0.06%, or three cents, at $46.51 a share.

The PowerShares QQQ (QQQQ) finished up Friday by 0.08%, or four cents, at $52.47 a share.

The Materials Select Sector SPDR (XLB) closed up today 0.80%, or 28 cents, at $35.39 a share.

The Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF) closed down 0.04%, or one cent, at $14.85 a share.’

Is QE2 Losing Its Allure? Simon Maierhofer, On Friday November 19, 2010, 1:14 pm EST A picture says more than a thousand words and the chart below does just that. Take a minute to study the chart, and you'll also learn that it takes only one picture to expel a myth, regardless of how pervasive it is.The black line is the percentage increase of the Fed's adjusted monetary base since January 2007, or the amount the Fed has spent on quantitative easing and other fiscal maneuvers. According to the QE myth, a drastically rising monetary base will increase money supply and inflation.The grey line is the M2 money supply. To compare apples to apples, M2 is also illustrated as percentage increase. The blue line is inflation measured by CPI.There's really not much else to say about QE1. Of course, we could add an additional thousand words of CNBC-fluff-like analysis, but your time is better-spent examining other pressing QE related topics, like:Did stocks rally because of QE1? Will stocks rally because of QE2? [chart]
Timing is Everything
The second chart (quantitative easing and the big picture) plots the S&P's performance against QE1.As you can see, QE1 came at a time (on March 18, 2009) when the S&P (SNP: ^GSPC) plummeted 57% from its October high. The Dow Jones (DJI: ^DJI), Nasdaq (Nasdaq: ^IXIC) and other broad market measures didn't fare any better.Needless to say, the market was extremely oversold. After predicting a bottom target of Dow 6,700, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter issued a strong buy alert on March 2, 2009. Stocks bottomed on March 6. By March 18 (when QE1 became official), the S&P had already soared 20%. [chart]
QE1 vs. QE2
Timing is probably the main difference between QE1 and QE2. In terms of economic benchmarks, there hasn't been much improvement. Unemployment has risen from 8.6% in March 2009 to 9.6% (U-6 unemployment has gone from 15.6% to 17.1%). Real estate prices have failed to recover while consumer confidence is about at the same level today as it was in April 2009.What has changed is the stock market. The S&P today is nearly 80% above its March 2009 low. In other words, QE1 was launched after the major indexes lost some 57% while QE2 will be released after stocks have already rallied 80%. You decide which environment is more conducive for higher prices.
What's Fueling the Stock and Commodity Rally?
If you are a one-word-explanation kind of a person, the answer is liquidity.Fed-induced liquidity to be more accurate. Right now, banks (NYSEArca: KRE - News) and financial institutions (NYSEArca: XLF - News) are swimming in liquidity. Where does the liquidity come from?It's a complicated process, here's the short version (the longer version was discussed in the November ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter):Currently, banks are allowed to borrow money from the Fed at an interest rate of 0.25%. Of course, the average American can't borrow at 0.25%, but the biggest banks can.
Guaranteed Profits for Banks
With the borrowed money, banks buy Treasuries. Long-term Treasuries (NYSEArca: TLT - News) pay about 3.5%. This is a guaranteed profitable trade. Pay 0.25% - get 3.5%. There's no incentive for banks to provide risky loans to broke consumers if the government offers you a no-loss option.In addition to the guaranteed margin profit, the Federal Reserve buys back Treasuries from banks via its Permanent Open Market Operations (POMO). Since Bond prices have gone up for most of the year, this is another profit source for banks. Buy low, sell high. Another government guaranteed trade. Where do all the profits go? Look around! A rising tide lifts all boats. Domestic stocks, international stocks (NYSEArca: FEZ - News), emerging market stocks (NYSEArca: EEM - News), broad bond funds (NYSEArca: AGG - News) and commodities (NYSEArca: DBC - News) are all up.
Fly in the Ointment
All things come to an end eventually. Even this perfectly legal and unethical enrichment cycle the banks are feasting on.30-Year T-Bonds were the first to decouple themselves from the liquidity rally. They topped on August 25 and have been going down since. On that very day, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter stated that: 'Our technical analysis along with fundaments suggest that T-Bonds are getting ready to roll over.'Shortly thereafter, Bill Gross stated that the 30-year bond bull market is over. Lower bond prices mean higher bond interest rates. When interest rates rise, investors become less inclined to 'gamble' with stocks.And regarding the POMO repurchase profit racket, lower bond prices mean smaller profits for banks which translates into less money to drive up stocks and commodities. This alone probably won't be a big enough knock against the liquidity house of cards, but every crash has to start somewhere - bonds may be the beginning.
Gold, Silver, Commodities and Inflation
Throughout much of 2008, 2009 and 2010, gold, silver and stocks have been moving in the same direction. That direction was usually the opposite of the U.S. dollar. A weak dollar means rising stocks and vice versa.If you look carefully, you'll see that the dollar has found support around current levels, which coincided with a correction in gold (NYSEArca: GLD - News) and silver (NYSEArca: SLV - News). In fact, gold has been correcting even though stocks have continued to rise. It's said that a fragmented market is an unhealthy market.This doesn't mean the patient (= various markets) can't live (= rise) longer, but it is an early warning sign.
Short-Term Effects of QE2
Leading up to today's Fed meeting, stocks have been rallying. If you believe 'buy the rumor and sell the news' will be the case, that's exactly the behavior you'd expect to see. Once the news is released, the big question is whether investors feel they actually got the steak or just the sizzle.Sentiment is extreme enough where a 'sizzle-induced' disappointment could lead to a correction - a correction bigger than many expect.Of course, there are many who believe that the ueber-bullish presidential election year cycle (October ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter, page 4) will kick in and propel stocks for the foreseeable future.Either way, we find ourselves at a very important juncture. The stock market has drawn a few lines in the sand, or trigger levels. A breakout above trigger levels will lead to the next resistance, while a drop below support may open the floodgates.

Tent Cities, Homelessness, Soul-Crushing Despair: Legacy Of Decades Of Government Debt, Mismanagement Of Economy The Economic Collapse | The safety net is getting awfully crowded.

Insiders selling (into the bubble as preceded last crash), this is an especially great opportunity to sell / take profits! Suckers’ rally to keep suckers suckered (easy for the wall street frauds to do with just a mouse click / push of the button – and, they know all those technical trade lines that are easy to program in this current phase of the scam/fraud with the debased dollar). Keep in mind, the totally mindless blather from the ‘cottage industries’ of and fraudulent wall street itself in talking up lower P/E multiples when the same is a direct result of the debasement of the dollar and the consequent manipulation / translation (not real, see Davis, infra) which preceded the financial crisis / last crash. Unemployment, trade, deficit, etc., numbers continue decidedly worse than expected along with other negative data (and in the ‘wrong direction’, that spin accorded ‘down but not as bad as before’ b*** s*** ) yet the market has rallied like no tomorrow with used home foreclosure / distressed sales, though abated owing to ‘foreclosuregate’, the other ‘heralded’ good news. Moreover, the dumbo lemmings of Europe have jumped on the fraudulent defacto bankrupt american crazy train propelled to the precipice also as if no tomorrow. This is about keeping the suckers sucked in with the help of a market-frothing pre-election debased dollar for favorable currency translation and paper (but not real when measured in, ie., gold, etc.) profits which preceded the last crisis, inflating a bubble as in the last crisis to facilitate the churn-and-earn, particularly with computerized (and high frequency) trades and which commissions they’ll get again on the way down. There is nothing to support these overbought stock prices, fundamentally or otherwise. These are desperate criminals ‘at work’. Even wall street shill, the senile Buffett is saying we’re still in a recession (depression) [ Davis: ‘… all profits are inflated by 10% (from falling, debased dollar) and that 10% is the E that gets divided from the P and gives us a much better price/multiple to hang our hats on and that gets investors to BUYBUYBUY …’ The bull market that never was / were beyond wall street b.s. when measured in gold ] This is a great opportunity to sell / take profits (these lower dollar, hyperinflationary currency manipulations / translations to froth paper stocks will end quite badly as in last crash)! This is a global depression. This is a secular bear market in a global depression. The past up moves were manipulated bull (s***) cycles (at best) in a secular bear market. This has been a typically manipulated bubble as has preceded the prior crashes with great regularity that the wall street frauds and insiders commission and sell into. This is a typical wall street ‘programmed computerized high-frequency churn and earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud as in prior crashes ( widely reported, high-frequency trading routinely accounts for more than 50% of daily U.S. equity trading volume and regularly approaches 70%. )’. This national decline, economic and otherwise, will not end until justice is served and the wall street frauds et als are criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed.The Stock Market's Long Decline Has Begun Smith ]

(11-19-10) Dow 11,203 +22 Nasdaq 2,518 +3 S&P 500 1,199 +3 [CLOSE- OIL $81.85 (-54% for year 2008) (RECORD TRADING HIGH $147.27) GAS $3.00 (reg. gas in LAND OF FRUITS AND NUTS $3.15 REG./ $3.29 MID-GRADE/ $3.39 PREM./ $3.79 DIESEL) / GOLD $1,353 (+24% for year 2009) / SILVER $27.18 (+47% for year 2009) PLATINUM $1,665 (+56% for year 2009) / DOLLAR= .73 EURO, 83 YEN, .62 POUND STERLING, ETC. (How low can you go - LOWER)/ 10 YR NOTE YIELD 2.65% …..… AP Business Highlights ...Yahoo Market Update... T. Rowe Price Weekly Recap – Stocks / Bonds / Currencies - Domestic / International This Is a Secular Bear Market and The End of Buy and Hold … and Hope MARKET MANIPULATION AND HOW THE LATEST BUBBLE-FRAUD PRE-COMING CRASH IS BEING ACCOMPLISHED 3-11-10 6 Theories On Why the Stock Market Has Rallied 3-9-10 [archived website file] Risks Lurk for ETF Investors The bull market that never was/were beyond wall street b.s. when measured in gold Property Values Projected to Fall 12% in 2010 Jan 31, 2010 The Week Ahead: Risk Is Off the Cliff; Unwind Has Begun Jan 31, 2010 01-13-10 Forecast for 2010 from Seeking Alpha Contributor THE COMING MARKET CRASH / CORRECTION 1-28-10 Maierhofer (01-15-10) 11 Clear Signs Economy Sinking Economic Black Hole 1-22-10: 20 Reasons Why The U.S. Economy Is Dying And Is Simply Not Going To Recover Current Economic / Fiscal Charts Trendsresearch.com forecast for 2009 1-7-10 Crash is coming! ‘WORST ECONOMIC COLLAPSE EVER’ Must Read Economic / Financial Data This Depression is just beginning The coming depression… thecomingdepression.net MUST READ: JEREMY GRANTHAM’S QUARTERLY UPDATE 25 January 2010 (850 on the S&P) by TPC The Next Wave of Collapse is Coming Sooner than you think Sliding Back Into the Great Depression ABSOLUTELY, ABSURDLY, RIDICULOUS! SELL / TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME!

National / World

don t_rump: I'll Decide on Presidential Run by June CBS News [ The complete take-over of government by confirmed mobster and fraudulent wall street criminals to pillage and plunder the nation even further in new york metro sinkhole style to support their lavish, plush fraudulent lifestyles. How totally pathetic is pervasively corrupt, defacto bankrupt america. trump should be in jail! Look for the pay-offs / bribes. How pathetic and tragic at once is fallen america! ] Real estate fraudster / mobster and unreality television star don t_rump said on ABC's "Good Morning America" today that he'll make a decision about running for president in 2012 by June. don juan trump eyes US presidency BBC News NEWS FLASH: Direct from Lost Angeles Learning Annex – Presenting mobster t_rump of new yoke, new joyzey, and now caleefornia mob fame with his continuing message for the past several years: buy real estate (and watch the values go down…..riiiiight!).
`Bank sues Trump over Chicago tower loan...`
`Trump casino to miss interest payment...`trump’s fired
Blagojevich calls feds 'cowards and liars'…[Yes. This is a rare moment for one to say that a sleazy hypocrite like blago, who is on corrupt federale-connected mobster trump’s celebrity apprentice, happens to be correct based upon facts / reality and my own direct observation and experience and the law – Don’t forget to include corrupt federal judges as maryanne trump barry, sam alito, shiff, matz, hall, underhill, dorsey, etc.. Defacto bankrupt america’s so-called system is pervasively corrupt and broken] (AP) [Abolish the corrupt, costly, economically wasteful lifetime extravagantly appointed federal courts - see RICO case [ http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm ]

Gingrich makes 2012 plans, inches up in early polls (The Ticket) [ Pathetic! Still part of the current problem, including for all the reasons he previously stepped down! ] Palin admits she’s considering 2012 run (The Ticket) [ Preposterous! A total joke! More needs not be said! ]

Rockefeller Wants Government to Shut Down Fox and MSNBC [ This is really quite shocking (and believe me, I’m no fan of either) , and totally unforgivable and people must ask the question would it have been better if rockefeller’s family hadn’t placed him in the senate. Given the state of the nation’s pervasive corruption, defacto bankruptcy, and decline, it’s difficult to justify the tenure of such long-standing ‘leaders’ / pols as rockefeller who have rode the nations down. ] “It really almost makes you ask the question would it have been better if we had never invented the internet,” Rockefeller mused during the confirmation hearing of Gary Locke, Barry Obama’s choice for Commerce Secretary…The former Director of National Intelligence Mike McConnell and Obama’s current director Admiral Dennis C. Blair, agreed with Rockefeller about the internet and national security … Rockefeller’s comments once again demonstrate the arrogance of “elected officials” who believe they have the power to control … and dictate what sort of news and even entertainment Americans should consume…’ Sen. Rockefeller: FCC Should Take FOX News, MSNBC Off Airwaves SEN. JAY ROCKEFELLER (D-WV): [ Clearly, just a hillbilly in heart and mind! ]

‘JFK Deathbed Confession’ reaches #1 on Google Ahead of Ventura TV program Aaron Dykes | Former Gov. Jesse Ventura appeared on the Alex Jones Show today to inform the world about the earth-shattering info that will air tonight on TruTV, prompting a #1 search term.

Al Peia's Blog

Monday, November 22, 2010

November 22, 2010 posts

Business / Economic / Financial

Largest-ever insider trading probe targets Goldman Sachs Insider-trading charges are being prepared against a vast network of consultants and traders across the US financial industry in a years-long probe that a report suggests will reveal a pervasive culture of backroom dealing.

Ireland fears civil unrest as bank crisis deepens One of Ireland’s biggest trade unions warned today that the nation was on the brink of civil unrest as government officials negotiated a multibillion euro bailout for the country’s ailing banks.

Crisis of Fiat Currencies: US Dollar Surpluses Converted into Gold Something is going on that your government does not want you to know about. Very few journalists have written about it and little or nothing has appeared in the mainstream media. The story could be one of major stories of our time.

‘Credibility of the Fed’ Under Historic Attack: Mishkin The Federal Reserve is undergoing what former central bank governor Frederic Mishkin is calling an unprecedented level of attacks caused by its inability to articulate a clear message regarding its multitrillion-dollar monetary policies.

Economist: TSA screenings will kill Americans on highways The TSA’s intrusive new screenings will result in more deaths on highways, says an economist with St. Lawrence University in New York state.

International Soccer Star: Reclaim Your Power By Pulling Your Money Out of Your Bank on December 7th Most Americans haven’t heard of him, but Eric Cantona is a huge international soccer star known throughout Europe and much of the world.

National / World

Patience with Palin? Michael S. Rozeff | I see her as a phony and an extremely dangerous person, just as dangerous as Bush and Obama [ I quite agree! He is absolutely correct. ]

ABC producer says TSA agent felt inside her underwear As the busiest travel days of the year approach, more and more passengers are accusing the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) of going too far with their screenings.

TSA Searches: Are Trains and Subways Next? Kurt Nimmo | Pistole would like to see TSA workers operate as a “national-security, counterterrorism organization, fully integrated into U.S. government efforts.”

Beck: Obama Will Blame Terror Attack On TSA Resistance Paul Joseph Watson | Fox News host warns that administration is preparing to exploit event to squelch resistance to airport security.

TSA needs false flag security incident to convince Americans to accept obscene pat-downs Mike Adams | The formula works like a charm for everything from pushing flu vaccines to justifying a war.

Crisis of Fiat Currencies: US Dollar Surpluses Converted into Gold Bob Chapman | Western powers have tried to destroy gold as a backing for currencies for many years.

TSA Tactics Find Ominous Parallel in Nazi Germany Kurt Nimmo | Left unchallenged, government invariably evolves into a tyrannical force at odds with the interest of the people.

Young Boy Strip Searched by TSA You Tube | The father tried several times to just hold the boys arms out for the TSA agent but I guess it didn’t end up being enough for the guy.

Jesse Ventura’s Conspiracy Theory: JFK Assassination Federal Jack | Jesse adds new explosive information to the assassination conspiracy theory.

TSA Warns Travelers May Be Arrested, Detained, and Fined for Refusing Search Kurt Nimmo | TSA announces it will enlist local police to detain people who refuse dangerous naked body scans and molestation of their private parts.

‘JFK Deathbed Confession’ reaches #1 on Google Ahead of Ventura TV program Aaron Dykes | Former Gov. Jesse Ventura appeared on the Alex Jones Show today to inform the world about the earth-shattering info that will air tonight on TruTV, prompting a #1 search term.

Gingrich makes 2012 plans, inches up in early polls (The Ticket) [ Pathetic! Still part of the current problem, including for all the reasons he previously stepped down! ] Palin admits she’s considering 2012 run (The Ticket) [ Preposterous! A total joke! More needs not be said! ]

‘JFK Deathbed Confession’ reaches #1 on Google Ahead of Ventura TV program Aaron Dykes | Former Gov. Jesse Ventura appeared on the Alex Jones Show today to inform the world about the earth-shattering info that will air tonight on TruTV, prompting a #1 search term.

No comments:

Post a Comment