Saturday, October 23, 2010

October 22, 2010 posts

Business / Economic / Financial

[ This link to a somewhat more cumulative blog posts page will precede current days news since most all topics remain current in terms of impact and longer-term effect and can be searched by topical index term more easily. The same is provided since the blog site http://alpeiablog.blogspot.com has just been censored as to size by google which is typical for google as nsa / cia / gov’t shill as more are becoming aware of. The same is true for microsoft, another co. that’s seen their best days and relies on the government to maintain their monopoly. Up to now the better page http://www.scribd.com/alpeia is provided for ease of formatting and clarity thereby while the Washington Post page is the real deal but without formatting http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/community/mypost/index.html?plckPersonaPage=PersonaComments&plckUserId=alpeia&newspaperUserId=alpeia ]

Secret Iraq war records reveal grim new details (Washington Post) Logs released by WikiLeaks offer chilling insights about conflict's death toll and the tactics of Iraqi leaders who have taken over as U.S. troops exit. [ Now why did I think the u.s. military’s numbers were all wet? Poll: Does WikiLeaks put soldiers in danger? I haven’t looked at this poll, but my inner poll says needless wars in other people’s lands put soldiers at risk, particularly when your nation is defacto bankrupt. ] Previous: 77,000 Iraqis killed from 2004 to August 2008, U.S. military says (Washington Post) [ And you can take that to the fraudulent american bank … riiiiight! … Come on … americans lie about everything and certainly this … A conservative estimate from AP through only 2007: Study: 151,000 Iraqis died in conflict’s violence Surveyors face danger to count casualties from 2003 to 2006 The Associated Press - updated 1/9/2008 7:15:50 PM ET 2008-01-10T00:15:50 About 151,000 Iraqis died from violence in the first three years after the United States invaded, concludes the best effort yet to count deaths — one that still may not settle the fierce debate over the war's true toll on civilians and others … americans are just lying war criminal american scum. Obama’s Finest Hour: Killing Innocent People For “Made-Up Crap” Floyd Empire Burlesque Oct 22, 2010 If ever I am tempted by the siren songs of my tribal past as a deep-fried, yellow-dawg Democrat, and begin to feel any faint, atavistic stirrings of sympathy for the old gang, I simply think of things like the scenario below, sketched last week by Johann Hari, and those wispy ghosts of partisanship past go howling back to the depths:

Imagine if, an hour from now, a robot-plane swooped over your house and blasted it to pieces. The plane has no pilot. It is controlled with a joystick from 7,000 miles away, sent by the Pakistani military to kill you. It blows up all the houses in your street, and so barbecues your family and your neighbours until there is nothing left to bury but a few charred slops. Why? They refuse to comment. They don’t even admit the robot-planes belong to them. But they tell the Pakistani newspapers back home it is because one of you was planning to attack Pakistan. How do they know? Somebody told them. Who? You don’t know, and there are no appeals against the robot.Now imagine it doesn’t end there: these attacks are happening every week somewhere in your country. They blow up funerals and family dinners and children. The number of robot-planes in the sky is increasing every week. You discover they are named “Predators”, or “Reapers” – after the Grim Reaper. No matter how much you plead, no matter how much you make it clear you are a peaceful civilian getting on with your life, it won’t stop. What do you do? If there was a group arguing that Pakistan was an evil nation that deserved to be violently attacked, would you now start to listen?…[This] is in fact an accurate description of life in much of Pakistan today, with the sides flipped. The Predators and Reapers are being sent by Barack Obama’s CIA, with the support of other Western governments, and they killed more than 700 civilians in 2009 alone – 14 times the number killed in the 7/7 attacks in London. The floods were seen as an opportunity to increase the attacks, and last month saw the largest number of robot-plane bombings ever: 22. Over the next decade, spending on drones is set to increase by 700 per cent.

Friends, it’s very simple: if you support Barack Obama and the Democrats — even if reluctantly, even if you’re just being all sophisticatedly super-savvy and blogospherically strategic about it, playing the “long game” or eleven-dimensional chess or what have you — you are supporting the outright murder of innocent people who have never done anything against you or yours. You have walked into a house, battered down the bedroom door, put the barrel of a gun against the temple of a sleeping child, and pulled the trigger. That is what you are supporting, that is what you are complicit in, that is what you yourself are doing.

]

Black Panther case reveals schism (Washington Post) [ I mean, really … You’d think a black president and black ag would have more sense … Drudgereport: WASHPOST: Black Panthers case taps deep racial divisions at Justice... Previous: UPDATE: MORE CLAIMS OF RACE BIAS AT JUSTICE... CIVIL RIGHTS PANEL TO PURSUE FED PROBE IN BLACK PANTHER CASE... ex-Justice official quit over the handling of a voter intimidation case against the New Black Panther Party accused his former employer of instructing attorneys in the civil rights division to ignore cases that involve black defendants and white victims US v. AZ... Cases against Wall Street lag despite Holder’s vows to target financial fraud Obama broke promises ) Disclaimer: I have been and continue to be opposed to an end to a trade embargo on cuba; not because of their communist system (I’m staunchly opposed to communism – ‘everybody’s equal except some bureaucrats are more equal than others’, etc.), but solely because of their grant of asylum to a black panther member who murdered a state trooper: Assata Shakur - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia Assata Olugbala Shakur (born July 16, 1947[1] as JoAnne Deborah Byron, married name Chesimard[2]) is an African-American activist and escaped convict who was a member of the Black Panther Party (BPP) and Black Liberation Army (BLA). Between 1971 and 1973, Shakur was accused of several crimes, of which she would never be charged, and made the subject of a multi-state manhunt.[3][4] In May 1973, Shakur was involved in a shootout on the New Jersey Turnpike, during which New Jersey State Trooper Werner Foerster and BLA member Zayd Malik Shakur were killed and Shakur and Trooper James Harper were wounded.[5] Between 1973 and 1977, Shakur was indicted in relation to six other alleged criminal incidents—charged with murder, attempted murder, armed robbery, bank robbery, and kidnapping—resulting in three acquittals and three dismissals. In 1977, she was convicted of the first-degree murder of Foerster and of seven other felonies related to the shootout.[6] Shakur was then incarcerated in several prisons, where her treatment drew criticism from some human rights groups. She escaped from prison in 1979 and has been living in Cuba in political asylum since 1984.’ - The black panthers are not a bunch of ‘warm and fuzzy’ people. As for cuban rhetoric, I don’t take anything they say seriously (I remind people that if you said something anti-government in cuba, you’d be dead or in jail), although I’m not hesitant to include a good point if made (ie., castro recently talking about nuclear holocaust risk, etc.). Suit over voter intimidation -- reported by poll-watcher Chris Hill, above -- roils Justice Dept.

Foreclosure crisis puts Wall St. reform to the test (Washington Post) [ ]

Title insurers seek insulation from foreclosure losses (Washington Post) The industry is maneuvering to protect itself from losses if courts rule that banks have played fast and loose with the foreclosure process. But people who buy foreclosed properties from banks may face some degree of loss despite having a title policy.

Foreclosure crisis puts Wall St. reform to the test (Washington Post) [ What reform? Those manipulated, high-frequency computerized churn-and-earn trades have never been … more frequent … and the churn and earn fraud never so lucrative … Previous: Survey: Half of Wall Street expects bigger bonus this year (Washington Post) [ This is nothing short of incredible … What they should be expecting, for the sake of the nation and the world, is an 8 by 10 jail cell! ] The percentage anticipating a bigger bonus increased from last year. Gerald Celente: “The selloff of America” Financial institutions on Wall Street are preparing to pay a shocking record $144 billion dollars in compensation & benefits. This amid spiraling foreclosures and an economic crisis that has devastated Americans, leaving many out in the street. Gerald Celente of the Trends Research Institute says that the gap between rich and poor in the US will continue to get larger because of the bank bailout that Washington shelled out in 2008. Meyerson: Wrong way for banks to get rich (Washington Post) [ Goldman Sachs Beats Estimates as Banking Revenue Rises Christine Harper (bloomberg.com) ...Oct. 19 – More unequivocal proof that crime in defacto bankrupt america pays … and pays well … especially with other peoples money … though many don’t realize that yet … no there’s no alchemy that produces real money out of thin air and the money for the wall street frauds, high-frequency computerized churn and earn must come from some place … guess … ]

Bernanke can't save the economy himself (Washington Post) What Bernanke needs to say [ … he resigns … yes, no-recession-helicopter ben shalom or b.s. for short, bernanke, with green shoots wilting on the vine, should resign … other than frothing that fraudulent wall street market with high-frequency programmed trades and debased dollars he can’t seem to print enough of, and for all but wall frauds churn and earn profits as they retain their fraudulent gains from the last debacle and this one, his policies are nothing short of disaster for this nation and the world. That money going into wall street pockets has to come from somewhere … guess. ] Another round of quantitative easing isn't enough. Congress needs to take action, too.

G-20 split over Geithner plan (Washington Post) [ Riiiiight! When tiny tim ‘God bless us everyone’ talks, like that old defunct Hutton brokerage firm, people listen … then do the opposite … after all, defacto bankrupt american can hardly be said to be nothing short of disasterous for not only this nation, but the world as well. ]Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner urged G-20 powers to cap the amount of mismatch between what they produce and invest and how much they consume.

7 banks closed in Fla., Ga., Ill., Kan., Ariz. WASHINGTON (AP) – ‘Regulators on Friday shut down a total of seven banks in Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Kansas and Arizona, lifting to 139 the number of U.S. banks that have fallen this year as soured loans have mounted and the economy has sputtered …’



Three Outrageously Contrarian Predictions - , On Friday October 22, 2010, 7:10 pm EDT If you've lost money over the past 10 years, this statement may seem like a personal assault: 'Timing the market is easy and profitable.' That's the implied conclusion from a recent TrimTabs study.What's the recipe? A recent Wall Street Journal article drew this lesson from the study: 'Over the past decade, it was actually quite simple to time the market. All you had to do was buy when the public was selling and sell when the public was buying.'Naturally, going against the crowd is easier said than done. That's why it's often said that successful investing is simple, but it isn't easy.Good investment opportunities come along only so often. Now seems to be the time. A good opportunity offers more profit potential than risk of losses. Do the Opposite 'Buy when the public was selling and sell when the public was buying,' was the Wall Street Journal's conclusion. So, what's the public doing right now? The public - this includes individual investors and Wall Street - is buying everything. Look around you, the S&P (SNP: ^GSPC), Dow Jones (DJI: ^DJI), Nasdaq (Nasdaq: ^IXIC), small caps, mid caps, international stocks (NYSEArca: EFA - News), emerging markets (NYSEArca: EEM - News), bonds (NYSEArca: AGG - News), gold (NYSEArca: GLD - News), silver (NYSEArca: SLV - News), and many other commodities (NYSEArca: DBC - News) are up, up, up. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar (NYSEArca: UUP - News) is down. According to Wall Street and the media, the investment universe is full of profit sweet spots. Stocks right now are a win-win scenario, at least so they say. Any bad news is viewed to bring about more quantitative easing and is, therefore, good news and good news is good news anyway. Gold is another sweet spot. There's no need to worry about inflation or deflation. Gold is sure to profit either way, or so they say. From a fundamental point of view, gold is as sound an investment today as real estate was a few years ago. Of course with gold, this time is different. Isn't it always? The U.S. dollar is doomed because more quantitative easing (more dollars in circulation) will reduce the value of the current dollars in the system. The government doesn't care if the dollar falls to oblivion, so why should you? Engrained Opinions Actually, there's a good reason to watch what's going on with the dollar. All the assets mentioned above (stocks, bonds and commodities) are denominated in dollars. A cheap dollar means higher prices and vice versa. Over the past five months, the U.S. Dollar Index dropped as much as 15%. Interestingly, it's after a 15% slide that the greenback has become despised. Investors dislike the dollar as much today as they did in late 2009 when it was about to lose its reserve currency status. At that time, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter went out on a limb and predicted a major U.S. dollar rally. From November 2009 to June 2010, the dollar soared as much as 20%, a diabolical move for currencies. In June, when fears about Europe and a crumbling euro currency made the rounds (and optimism surrounding the dollar was plentiful), the newsletter called for a dollar correction. Prediction #1 - The Dollar will Rally This correction has morphed into a decline pervasive enough to push dollar sentiment to an extreme that, historically, has foreshadowed significant turnarounds. The notion of a trend reversal is confirmed by technical indicators. Sunday night's Technical Forecast (part of the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter) stated: 'Last week's dollar action was encouraging as the U.S. Dollar Index finished with a green candle low on Friday and since pushed above the lower acceleration band. That's what bottoms are made of.' Friday's green candle low was followed by two more green candles. On Tuesday (October 19), the U.S. Dollar Index closed above its middle acceleration band. [chart] As far as a candle formation goes, those are the initial stages of a trend reversal. Once again, a rising dollar is bad for stocks and commodities. Prediction #2 - Commodities (Including Gold and Silver) Will Decline Not only is the dollar way oversold, the commodity rally is stretched to a point where a sharp and prolonged reversal could happen any moment. Net speculative positions in many commodities are at record highs, as is the percentage of bullish traders. We've seen time and again that extreme optimism is unhealthy for any market. Albeit not a short-term timing tool, it's a big red flag. Once underway, the selling pressure should affect nearly all commodities, including oil (NYSEArca: USO - News) and agricultural commodities (NYSEArca: DBA - News). Prediction #3 - Nasdaq Should Lead Equity Decline It's been publicized surprisingly little that the Nasdaq 1000 (Nasdaq: QQQQ - News) has already moved above its April recovery high. This has largely been due to Apple's stellar performance. The Nasdaq's performance from here will be very telling. If it's able to establish support above Monday's $51.52 high, the slide in equity prices may be halted temporarily. If it isn't, watch out for a Nasdaq-led decline across the board. Third One 'Free' - QE2 Won't Work If you took a poll on Wall Street, 8 out of 10 Ivy League educated, Armani wearing, Mercedes driving Wall Street Banksters would probably tell you that QE2 will work. The media agrees. When September's jobless numbers went public, the figures were much worse than expected, but stocks surged. Why? Associated Press headline: 'Faith in Fed pushes Dow past 11,000.' When stocks slid on October 14, hope of QE2 kept things from getting worse. AP headline: 'Stocks dip; Likely Fed move keeps losses in check.' QE2 may end up working for Wall Street, but it seems not to have worked for the economy. If it did work, why would we need QE2? Obviously, the rumor of QE2 was enough to drive up stocks. Will the actual news deliver the steak or just the sizzle? In POMO They Trust The fact is that the Federal Reserve's Permanent Open Market Operation (POMO) purchases of Treasuries have had a direct and delayed effect on the market's performance. Certain purchases translated into positive performance 89% of the time (a detailed performance analysis and schedule of future POMO purchases is available in the November issue of the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter). Should You Fight the Fed? Will the Fed win the tug-of-war against sentiment, valuations, and technical analysis, all of which point towards a correction, perhaps a drastic one? If history is a guide, the market will win ... sooner or later. One way of navigating the current uncertainty is via support and resistance levels. A break through overhead resistance is likely to result in higher prices, while slicing through support may open the floodgates. The ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter, along with the semi-weekly Technical Forecast, highlights the most recent and applicable support/resistance levels along with corresponding target levels.

Wall St circuit breakers fail to ease market nerves [High frequency churn and earn in motion, and draining main street / the nation! ] Mikolajczak NEW YORK (Reuters) – ‘Market circuit breakers put in place after the May 6 "flash crash" have not stopped large swings in U.S. stocks and traders remain wary of glitches in the trading system. The speed of trading, owing to high frequency strategies, means plenty of trades can take place even after a halt is put in place by circuit breakers. The last stock to be halted due to a circuit breaker, Progress Energy Inc, had more than 100 trades occur after the stock triggered a halt and resulted in nearly 60 canceled trades. "It's under the spotlight more now since May 6," said Joe Saluzzi, co-manager of trading at Themis Trading in Chatham, New Jersey. "I don't want to say it's knocking at confidence, but some people get frustrated about it." The circuit breakers were imposed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to prevent the kind of turmoil seen on May 6 when the Dow Jones industrial average lost then recouped around 700 points in about 20 minutes. With the new regulations, head-scratching moves in individual issues are increasingly under the microscope. On Monday, nearly $500 million in trades in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust were cancelled. The trades occurred at a price of 106.46, several points below where the index was trading at that time. The NYSE Arca exchange attributed the trades being completed to an issue with a software release, causing the closing auction cycle to run at 4:15 p.m. and the trades to be ruled broken by NYSE Arca Market Management. Large orders filled on illiquid exchanges -- a practice known as "ripping the book" -- have resulted in halts of large stocks such as Nucor Corp. and Cisco Systems Inc. "It shows you the fragmented market isn't necessarily working. When you had a central liquidity place when there was two dominant exchanges you didn't have that type of situation," added Saluzzi. Lately a handful of very small stocks have been the target of trading strategies that result in sharp upward moves, seemingly without news. LiveDeal, a company with a tiny market capitalization of $2.68 million, saw its share price more than triple to $14 a share on Thursday from $4.42 the day before. Shares fell to $9.89 on Friday …’

Trouble Comes in Threes: Dave's Daily

Putting an End to the 'Cash on the Sidelines' Myth Roche ‘We’ve highlighted the financial punditry’s obsession with “cash on the sidelines” over the course of the last year in attempts to show that there is really no such thing. The argument from an investment perspective is utterly absurd. In general, investors like to think that their cash is some sort of fuel for the market that will drive prices higher. This is easily debunked simply by looking at the transactions at work. When you buy stocks you are effectively swapping cash with the seller. It’s that simple. There is no change in net financial assets. You merely swapped cash for stock and the seller swapped stock for cash. The price you arrive at is merely a function of psychology. Who is the more eager buyer or seller? While there is technically “cash on the sidelines” this amount of cash on the sidelines is relatively stable in any given period. It’s not changing with every transaction as many would have you believe. Therefore, there is no fuel or pile of cash that is just waiting to be injected into the market and drive prices higher. In terms of corporate balance sheets the argument is equally misleading. You’ll often hear the financial punditry discuss the asset side of the balance sheet while ignoring the liability side. There’s all this “cash on the sidelines” just waiting to hire people, merge with other companies, etc. The only problem is, debt has been surging at the same time that cash levels rise. We’ve discussed this thoroughly in the past (see here), but Mish at Global Economic Analysis (with the help of Tableau Software) provided a great visual tool today that puts this reality into perspective. We can see from the following tool that corporate balance sheets aren’t nearly in the excellent condition that most people believe. CASH ON THE SIDELINES? DON’T BELIEVE IT. [CHART] TOTAL CASH $3,705.5 BILLION - TOTAL DEBT $4,455.1 BILLION = NET CASH (749.6 BILLION)’

Rallyin’ into the close to keep suckers suckered on top of bad news! The October Philadelphia Fed Index hit 1.0, below the 1.5 that had been widely forecast. Meanwhile, Leading Indicators for September increased 0.3%, as expected ( but based upon the ‘stock prices floating on air and b*** s***’ component of same – the ultimate ‘bootstrap’ ). This is an especially great opportunity to sell / take profits (these lower dollar, hyperinflationary currency manipulations / translations to froth paper stocks will end quite badly as in last crash)! This is a global depression. This is a secular bear market in a global depression. The past up moves were manipulated bull (s***) cycles (at best) in a secular bear market. This has been a typically manipulated bubble as has preceded the prior crashes with great regularity that the wall street frauds and insiders commission and sell into. This is a typical wall street ‘programmed computerized high-frequency churn and earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud as in prior crashes’. This national decline, economic and otherwise, will not end until justice is served and the wall street frauds et als are criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed.The Stock Market's Long Decline Has Begun Smith ‘The Fed's campaign to boost the risk-trade in equities by destroying the dollar has reached its limits. Now gravity will take hold as stocks enter a Long Decline.On Monday, Daily Finance published my article Is the Market Ready to Roll Over? These Signs Say Yes.

QE2 Not Such a Slam-Dunk? Krasting The 100% certain sure thing in the market today is that QE-2 will come on November 3rd and that it will be decisive in its scope. Well I am not so sure any more.

  • The Fed’s Beige Book from Wednesday did not make a case for an economy that needed emergency measures. Yes there was some discussion about the weak housing market and soft loan demand. But we know that QE-2 is not going to fix those problems.
  • It is of significance to me (and should be to all) that Zero Hedge was featured in a Time/CNN article titled, Will the Federal Reserve Start a Civil War?

I am certain that the Fed reads Zero Hedge. But how much influence they have is a question. When it gets up to Time magazine however, it is another matter altogether. It is not possible for the Fed to avoid the collective roar that is coming from across the country at this point. If the Fed blunders with an unpopular QE-2 the results will be disastrous. Not only will the economy tank but the Fed will have lost a good chunk of its remaining credibility. The downside risks to Bernanke are enormous. I don’t think he believes he is in a popularity contest, but he does know he can’t run monetary policy with protesters outside his door. How much is he prepared to gamble given that he clearly does not have a consensus amongst his own board? He is an academic, not a gambler.

  • Today St. Louis Fed Bullard made remarks to reporters that were a warning sign to me (and the market). He talked a much different game than what has been dished out of late. He made reference to a smaller program. Maybe less than $500billion (about half what is now in the street). He also threw out something that blew me away. He suggested that the 11/3 decision was in someway dependant on the Q3 GDP numbers that come out before the Fed meets. Bullard even “spun” the numbers on the hot side:

it may come in a little stronger than the second quarter. So we have to keep our eye on that.

Bond traders panicked and hit bids on long coupons. I like that read. Bullard gave us a hint that maybe this QE-2 is not such a slam-dunk. (See ZH story on Bullard)

  • The WSJ had a market story about Bullard’s comments but their big gun on QE, Jon Hilsenrath, has been quiet. Should the press follow with the new question mark on the timing and scope of QE2 we may have an October surprise that is bigger than a SF-Texas series.

I started this with; “The 100% certain sure thing in the market today is that QE-2 will come on November 3rd and that it will be decisive in its scope.” If that certainty factor falls to 50% the S&P is going to take a big dump. That possibility was simply not in the print at the close.

The Unintended Consequences of QE2 Roche ‘It looks like the Fed is already beginning to worry about the unintended consequences of QE2. In a speech earlier this week Richard Fisher discussed an important consequence of QE. He said:

In my darkest moments, I have begun to wonder if the monetary accommodation we have already engineered might even be working in the wrong places.

It certainly is working in the wrong places. While the Fed creates paper profits in stocks and bonds QE appears to also be influencing the price of commodities. Commodity prices have surged in recent weeks as the Fed has driven the dollar lower. What’s so pernicious here is the margin compression that Gaius discussed the other day. This is crucial because the margin recovery has been the single most important component of the equity market recovery.

What’s so interesting here is that Ben Bernanke might actually be creating a double headwind for the economy in the coming quarters. Not only is he reducing margins for many corporations, but because quantitative easing is inherently deflationary (because it replaces interest bearing assets with non-interest bearing assets) it is not helping aggregate demand. From the perspective of a corporation this means stagnant revenues and higher input costs. That will only increase the reluctance to hire. Of course, the Fed thinks they can prop up particular markets and generate a “wealth effect” that is unsupported by the underlying fundamentals. Interestingly, in the long-run, Mr. Bernanke might be creating more damage than he even understands. But at least someone at the Fed is beginning to wonder if this strategy is viable.‘

Jim Rogers: “US will lose economic war” China has become the world’s fastest growing economy, what can the US be taught from the Chinese as the US economy continues to struggle? Jim Rogers, co-founder of the Quantum Fund says that US citizens should save and invest their money as their Chinese counter parts have. The Chinese are saving and investing an average of 35% of their income, taking an age old US principle and using it to their advantage.

Las Vegas Unemployment Rate Hits 15 Percent While unemployment statewide remained unchanged in September, jobless numbers in Las Vegas rose to 15 percent, a new record.

Reid: ‘But For Me, We’d Be in World-Wide Depression’ … Wow! …’

Stimulus Swindle: Los Angeles Spent $70 Million in Stimulus Funds to Create 7.76 Jobs A new piece of evidence has emerged in the debate over the effectiveness of President Obama’s 2009 stimulus package, and it’s not good for Democrats.

Strapped UK to pay for EU’s ‘fraud, waste & mismanagement’? The European Union is demanding an additional 900 million pounds from the UK. It comes as the largest public spending cuts since the Second World War was announced. Thousands of protestors took to the streets of London saying it will condemn the UK to years of brutal unemployment. For more on the topic RT talks to Robert Oulds – Director of think tank the Bruge Group.

Geithner’s Goal: Rebalanced World Economy Wall Street Journal | Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said he would use weekend meetings of G-20 finance ministers to advance efforts to “rebalance” the world economy so it is less reliant on U.S. consumers.

The Big Wall Street Banks Have Found A New Way To Strangle The American People: Predatory Property Tax Collection The Economic Collapse | Today, millions of American families are barely hanging on to their homes by their fingernails.

Currency Wars: A Race to the Bottom of the Inflationary Barrel Ron Paul | Inflation fears are heating up this week as Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke gave a speech in Boston on Friday, causing further frantic flight into gold by those fearful of the coming “quantitative easing” the Fed is set to deliver in November.

Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac bailouts could hit $363 billion, report says The taxpayer bailouts of housing finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac could cost as much as $363 billion through 2013, according to government projections released Thursday.

(10-22-10) Dow 11,132 -14 Nasdaq 2,479 +19 S&P 500 1,183 +2 [CLOSE- OIL $81.67 (-54% for year 2008) (RECORD TRADING HIGH $147.27) GAS $3.00 (reg. gas in LAND OF FRUITS AND NUTS $3.15 REG./ $3.29 MID-GRADE/ $3.39 PREM./ $3.79 DIESEL) / GOLD $1,325 (+24% for year 2009) / SILVER $24.13 (+47% for year 2009) PLATINUM $1,674 (+56% for year 2009) / DOLLAR= .71 EURO, 81 YEN, .63 POUND STERLING, ETC. (How low can you go - LOWER)/ 10 YR NOTE YIELD 2.56% …..… AP Business Highlights ...Yahoo Market Update... T. Rowe Price Weekly Recap – Stocks / Bonds / Currencies - Domestic / International This Is a Secular Bear Market and The End of Buy and Hold … and Hope MARKET MANIPULATION AND HOW THE LATEST BUBBLE-FRAUD PRE-COMING CRASH IS BEING ACCOMPLISHED 3-11-10 6 Theories On Why the Stock Market Has Rallied 3-9-10 [archived website file] Risks Lurk for ETF Investors The bull market that never was/were beyond wall street b.s. when measured in gold Property Values Projected to Fall 12% in 2010 Jan 31, 2010 The Week Ahead: Risk Is Off the Cliff; Unwind Has Begun Jan 31, 2010 01-13-10 Forecast for 2010 from Seeking Alpha Contributor THE COMING MARKET CRASH / CORRECTION 1-28-10 Maierhofer (01-15-10) 11 Clear Signs Economy Sinking Economic Black Hole 1-22-10: 20 Reasons Why The U.S. Economy Is Dying And Is Simply Not Going To Recover Current Economic / Fiscal Charts Trendsresearch.com forecast for 2009 1-7-10 Crash is coming! ‘WORST ECONOMIC COLLAPSE EVER’ Must Read Economic / Financial Data This Depression is just beginning The coming depression… thecomingdepression.net MUST READ: JEREMY GRANTHAM’S QUARTERLY UPDATE 25 January 2010 (850 on the S&P) by TPC The Next Wave of Collapse is Coming Sooner than you think Sliding Back Into the Great Depression ABSOLUTELY, ABSURDLY, RIDICULOUS! SELL / TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME!

Go to following pages for above links:
http://www.albertpeia.com/currentopics2ndqtr10108.htm
http://www.albertpeia.com
http://www.scribd.com/alpeia
http://alpeiablog.blogspot.com
http://www.albertpeia.com/alresume.htm


http://www.albertpeia.com/wallstreetlunacy2ndqtr10108.htm

National / World

Democrats Behind Tea Party Cyber Attacks? Paul Joseph Watson | FreedomWorks hack was “politically motivated,” launched day after Obama instructed Pentagon to attack “cyberthreats” within U.S.

Democrats Behind Tea Party Cyber Attacks? Paul Joseph Watson | FreedomWorks hack was “politically motivated,” launched day after Obama instructed Pentagon to attack “cyberthreats” within U.S.

Alan Watt: The Neo-Eugenics War On Humanity Infowars.com | Alan Watt continues to divulge his fascinating in-depth insights.

Obama Tells Pentagon to Attack “Cyberthreats” On American Soil Kurt Nimmo | Government puts another nail in the coffin of Posse Comitatus.

Wikileaks: Secret Iraq War Death Toll Set at 285,000 In what is being described as the largest release of secret U.S. military documents ever, whistle-blowing web site WikiLeaks has released a trove of classified reports about the war in Iraq, including a secret U.S. government tally that put the Iraqi death toll at 285,000, according to news sources that received advanced copies of the documents.

Establishment Dispatches Clinton To Campaign Against Rand Paul The Democratic establishment is pulling out the big guns in an all out effort to prevent Rand Paul from becoming a Kentucky senator this November by dispatching former president Bill Clinton to campaign for Paul’s opponent Jack Conway on the eve of the election.

Obama Approval Rating Hits New All Time Low President Obama’s approval ratings continue to plummet according to national surveys, with the latest from Gallup showing a decline of more than two percentage points in the last quarter alone.

Republican congressional candidate says violent overthrow of government is ‘on the table’ Republican congressional candidate Stephen Broden stunned his party Thursday, saying he would not rule out violent overthrow of the government if elections did not produce a change in leadership.

Forced Abortion: Dream Of The Scientific Elite Today’s harrowing story about a pregnant woman in China who was brutally beaten and abducted by state goons before being forcibly injected with a drug to kill her unborn baby serves as a stark reminder that the current White House science czar, John P. Holdren, advocated the creation of a “planetary regime” that would carry out similar draconian measures in America as part of the eugenicist zeal to reduce world population.

French Senate Passes Controversial Pension Bill The French Senate has passed a controversial pension reform bill, which has caused a series of strikes and protests around France. The senators approved President Nicolas Sarkozy’s plan to raise the retirement age from 60 to 62, and it could become law as early as next week.

WikiLeaks promises ‘major announcement’ Saturday in Europe The WikiLeaks website has promised a “major announcement” in Europe on Saturday, in a message on its Twitter feed, amid speculation it will release thousands of secret documents about the Iraq war.

France Introduces Petrol Rationing As Riots And Blockades Continue More than a quarter of the country’s 12,500 petrol stations are dry and some of them have now started limiting fill-ups to 30 litres for cars and 150 litres for lorries.

‘White House seeks to remove Obama’ Press TV ‘A US analyst says some officials in the White House and the administration are considering legal action to remove Barack Obama from presidency. Oct 22, 2010 A US analyst says some officials in the White House and the administration are considering legal action to remove Barack Obama from presidency. “Right now, there is discussion in Washington and within the government of using the 25th amendment to the US Constitution to remove Obama from office,” Edward Spannaus from Executive Intelligence Review said in an interview with Press TV on Friday. The amendment allows for removing the president if he/she has incapacity either physically or mentally. “In this case, Obama is mentally incapable of fulfilling the office of president,” Spannaus went on to say. Referring to Obama’s plummeting popularity, mostly due to the recent economic collapse in the US, Spannaus said, “There is no way that his presidency could be salvaged at this point and it does not really make any difference who wins the congressional elections.” “He was not qualified to be the president in the first place. He was put in there precisely because he would act as a puppet and they knew he would be a puppet for Wall Street, for the London financiers and for the British,” Spannaus added. A recent survey from Gallup has revealed that more than half of American voters would not support the incumbent US president’s re-election.A recent survey from Gallup has revealed that more than half of American voters would not support the re-election of President Barack Obama.

Obama’s Finest Hour: Killing Innocent People For “Made-Up Crap” Floyd Empire Burlesque Oct 22, 2010 If ever I am tempted by the siren songs of my tribal past as a deep-fried, yellow-dawg Democrat, and begin to feel any faint, atavistic stirrings of sympathy for the old gang, I simply think of things like the scenario below, sketched last week by Johann Hari, and those wispy ghosts of partisanship past go howling back to the depths:

Imagine if, an hour from now, a robot-plane swooped over your house and blasted it to pieces. The plane has no pilot. It is controlled with a joystick from 7,000 miles away, sent by the Pakistani military to kill you. It blows up all the houses in your street, and so barbecues your family and your neighbours until there is nothing left to bury but a few charred slops. Why? They refuse to comment. They don’t even admit the robot-planes belong to them. But they tell the Pakistani newspapers back home it is because one of you was planning to attack Pakistan. How do they know? Somebody told them. Who? You don’t know, and there are no appeals against the robot.Now imagine it doesn’t end there: these attacks are happening every week somewhere in your country. They blow up funerals and family dinners and children. The number of robot-planes in the sky is increasing every week. You discover they are named “Predators”, or “Reapers” – after the Grim Reaper. No matter how much you plead, no matter how much you make it clear you are a peaceful civilian getting on with your life, it won’t stop. What do you do? If there was a group arguing that Pakistan was an evil nation that deserved to be violently attacked, would you now start to listen?…[This] is in fact an accurate description of life in much of Pakistan today, with the sides flipped. The Predators and Reapers are being sent by Barack Obama’s CIA, with the support of other Western governments, and they killed more than 700 civilians in 2009 alone – 14 times the number killed in the 7/7 attacks in London. The floods were seen as an opportunity to increase the attacks, and last month saw the largest number of robot-plane bombings ever: 22. Over the next decade, spending on drones is set to increase by 700 per cent.

Friends, it’s very simple: if you support Barack Obama and the Democrats — even if reluctantly, even if you’re just being all sophisticatedly super-savvy and blogospherically strategic about it, playing the “long game” or eleven-dimensional chess or what have you — you are supporting the outright murder of innocent people who have never done anything against you or yours. You have walked into a house, battered down the bedroom door, put the barrel of a gun against the temple of a sleeping child, and pulled the trigger. That is what you are supporting, that is what you are complicit in, that is what you yourself are doing.

Drudgereport: REPORTS: Illegals canvassing for votes...
Angle to Reid: Man up, man up, man up...
Vegas: Record 15% Unemployment...
Reid defends million-dollar RITZ-CARLTON condo...
Obama T-shirt serves as voting 'dress code' reminder ...
NOONAN: 'Tea Party' saved GOP from Bush...
PELOSI CHALLENGED IN SAN FRAN...
Republican candidate: Violent overthrow of govt 'on table'...
'Our nation founded on violence'...
GREATEST DATA LEAK IN MILITARY HISTORY!
Feds shut 6 banks in FL, GA, IL, KS; 138 bank failures this year...
WASHPOST: Black Panthers case taps deep racial divisions at Justice...
'BUT FOR ME, WE'D BE IN WORLD-WIDE DEPRESSION’ … Wow! … '...
Water on the Moon: A Billion Gallons!
...may bolster case for manned [military] base [ May? Come on! … biggest boondoggle since wmd’s inIraq and the last fake appollo video? … ]

Go to following pages for above links:
http://www.albertpeia.com/currentopics2ndqtr10108.htm
http://www.albertpeia.com
http://www.scribd.com/alpeia
http://alpeiablog.blogspot.com
http://www.albertpeia.com/alresume.htm


http://www.albertpeia.com/wallstreetlunacy2ndqtr10108.htm

You may post a comment on my blog on any topic: http://alpeiablog.blogspot.com

Britain plans $131B in spending cuts by 2015 (Washington Post) [ Defacto bankrupt america along with NATO war partners, just moving right along … and into the abyss. France Unrest: Street battles in Lyon, blocked Marseille airport, protests in Paris It’s another day of unrest in France, where Marseille’s airport has been blocked by protesters and further demonstrations are planned in Paris. It’s all part of the anger at proposals to raise the retirement age from 60 to 62, which would still be one of the lowest in Europe. UK Unions Threaten French-Style Riots In Backlash To Draconian Austerity Measures Unions told the Government to brace itself for French-style street protests last night after the Chancellor confirmed that half a million public sector jobs will be axed.]

Treaty on weapons trafficking stays stalled (Washington Post ) [ No surprise there! I strongly recommend the well done, well researched film, ‘Lord of War’, which effectively captures in a relatively small amount of time the essential theme of creating the conflict, strife, conditions, bogeymen, etc., (ie., Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan, Mexico, etc.,) to create need for the lucrative and deadly arms trade (lots of cash and bribes as well). Previous: Cartels beef up presence in U.S. (Washington Post) [ I strongly recommend the entertaining, albeit exaggerated for shock effects, films by the talented director Robert Rodriguez, ‘Machete’ and ‘Once Upon a Time in Mexico’. The important point in the films is the manipulation and interwoven money connections, pieces of the action, bribes, etc. (see infra, RICO case, 10-15-10 letter to the FBI , ( http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenaltyofperjury.pdf http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm ). While I assume he’s of Mexican-American descent, and only slightly biased as a consequence, realize that a real life american story, names, etc., wouldn’t get made / distributed. Those Cartels referenced in this article wouldn’t be here without inside american help, very, very high up and quite officially unofficial. ] When a major Mexican drug cartel opened a branch office in San Diego, U.S. authorities tapped into their cellphones -- then listened, watched and waited. ] ] The difficulty of passing the treaty in the United States offers a lesson in the political sensitivities of taking even modest legal steps to crack down on gun-smuggling to Mexico.

Crisis tests reform legislation (Washington Post) [ Well, there must be a will for there to be a way; and, the lack of prosecutions of the wall street frauds despite campaign promises is telling; viz., no real will ( the amounts stolen by the wall street frauds would pay for all mortgages in america and then some, just to emphasize the magnitude of their fraud accomplis). ]Recent foreclosure problems challenge financial regulators to respond more cohesively and aggressively to a problem than they did to the subprime crisis three years ago.

Fannie, Freddie bailout is likely to rise to $154B (Washington Post) [ Riiiiight! They’re so good at projections; reasonable minds could / would differ … Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac bailouts could hit $363 billion, report says prisonplanet.com The taxpayer bailouts of housing finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac could cost as much as $363 billion through 2013, according to government projections released Thursday. ] In addition to the existing price tag of $135B, the aid is likely to cost taxpayers extra $19B and may cost as much as $124B more if the economy starts shrinking again, according to a government projection.

U.S. pushes currency accord (Washington Post) [ Then what will be fraudulent wall street’s excuse for the air-ball bubble stocks. Come on! … Get real! They haven’t the slightest clue what they’re doing. The October Philadelphia Fed Index hit 1.0, (50%) below the 1.5 that had been widely forecast. Meanwhile, Leading Indicators for September increased 0.3%, as expected (but based upon the ‘stock prices floating on air and b*** s***’ component of same). This is an especially great opportunity to sell / take profits (these lower dollar, hyperinflationary currency manipulations / translations to froth paper stocks will end quite badly as in last crash)! This is a global depression. This is a secular bear market in a global depression. The past up moves were manipulated bull (s***) cycles (at best) in a secular bear market. This has been a typically manipulated bubble as has preceded the prior crashes with great regularity that the wall street frauds and insiders commission and sell into. This is a typical wall street ‘programmed computerized high-frequency churn and earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud as in prior crashes’. This national decline, economic and otherwise, will not end until justice is served and the wall street frauds et als are criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed.The Stock Market's Long Decline Has Begun Smith ‘The Fed's campaign to boost the risk-trade in equities by destroying the dollar has reached its limits. Now gravity will take hold as stocks enter a Long Decline.On Monday, Daily Finance published my article Is the Market Ready to Roll Over? These Signs Say Yes. ] The move is conceived largely as a new tack in a dispute over China's policies, but it is poised to become a battle for the Group of 20 major economic powers.

Wednesdays Rebound Does Not Alter My Market Outlook Suttmeier The yield on the 10-Year note is between my monthly pivot at 2.555 and my quarterly and semiannual risky levels at 2.265 and 2.249. Gold is trading around my monthly pivot at $1343.7 between my quarterly value level at $1306.4 and weekly risky level at $1373.6. Crude oil is just above my weekly pivot at $82.38 with semiannual and monthly risky levels at $83.94 and $84.74. The euro is trying to rally to this week’s risky level at 1.4074. The major equity averages remain overbought with overhead risky levels. For the Dow my weekly risky level is 11,229, my annual risky level is 11,235, and my semiannual risky level is 11,296. I answer readers’ questions on the Dow Theory Buy Signal. I comment on the Fed’s Beige Book.

10-Year Note – (2.475) Weekly, annual and annual value levels are 2.620, 2.813 and 2.999 with monthly and daily pivots at 2.555 and 2.539, and quarterly and semiannual risky levels at 2.265 and 2.249. click to enlarge [chart] Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

Comex Gold – ($1344.2) Quarterly, semiannual and annual value levels are $1306.4, $1260.8, $1218.7 and $1115.2 with my monthly pivot at $1343.7, and daily and weekly risky levels at $1369.0 and $1373.6. [chart] Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

Nymex Crude Oil – ($82.54) My annual value level is $77.05 with daily and weekly pivots at $81.41 and $82.38, and semiannual and monthly risky levels at $83.94 and $84.74. [chart] Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

The Euro – (1.3964) My quarterly value level is 1.3318 with daily and weekly risky levels at 1.3948 and 1.4060. My monthly value level is 1.2342 with semiannual risky level at 1.4733. [chart] Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

Daily Dow: (11,108) Monthly, semiannual, annual and quarterly value levels are 10,857, 10,558, 10,379 and 8,523 with daily, weekly, annual and semiannual risky levels at 11,132, 11,229, 11,235, 11,290 and 11,296. My annual risky level at 11,235 was tested at the April 26th high of 11,258.01. [chart] Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

Reader Questions about Dow Theory

1. Do you think the Dow will close above 11,205.03 triggering a Dow Theory Buy Signal? First of all Dow Transports must also close above 4,806.1 to confirm a Dow Theory Buy. I am not betting that such a signal will occur, as my longer term forecast is “Dow 8,500 before Dow 11,500”.

2. If the get a Dow Theory Buy signal what is the upside target? If the Dow does not have a monthly close above 11,296 the Dow Theory Buy could become a false signal. I do not have a specific target above 11,296 as there are no higher risky levels. This happens when a market goes parabolic, in stocks called a “melt-up” as all shorts are forced to cover.

3. What would negate a Dow Theory Buy Signal? I will track the weekly chart as the Dow is overbought. A weekly close below the five-week modified moving average with declining MOJO would be the sell signal. The five-week modified moving average is at 10,727 this week and will move higher each week.

IN SUM, I STILL FORECAST “DOW 8,500 BEFORE DOW 11,500”

The Beige Book Reflects Modest Economic Growth, but Let’s Focus on the Headwinds

· Housing markets remain weak with most Districts reporting sales below year-ago levels. Reports on prices suggested stability, however. Conditions in the commercial real estate sector were subdued, and construction was expected to remain weak. Lending activity was stable in most Districts.

· Bernanke is worried about deflation but that’s not evident in the Beige Book. Input costs, most notably for agricultural commodities and industrial metals, rose further. Shipping rates increased, and retailers in some Districts noted rising wholesale prices.

· Demand for transportation services appears to have slowed.

What’s Ahead for the Foreclosure Mess?

· The big banks are saying their paperwork is accurate so foreclosures should commence soon.

· The attorneys general in all states are investigating whether lenders violated state laws.

· Evicted homeowners are hiring lawyers for suits against the major lenders.

· Judges will scrutinize foreclosure documents with skepticism.

· Congress will hold hearings.

· All of this remains the fall-out of the Subprime Crisis.

Disclosure: No positions

It's Time to Take Some Profits

Are the Markets Headed for a Correction? Babak ‘The stock market has been in rally mode since the start of September. Since then the S&P 500 has gained 13%, very close to the ~15% it gained from the early February 2010 lows until mid-April 2010. With that has come a few breadth signals that the rally is getting tired and may need to rest or retrace before continuing.Earlier I mentioned the overbought breadth reading from the percentage of issues in the S&P 500 trading above their 50 day moving average. This was the highest since April’s top. That measure has backed away slightly from the peak (93%) and it now at 89%.But other measures of market internals are very elevated. For example, the daily advance decline statistics are very high and the McClellan Summation index, which is based on that raw data is reaching levels we haven’t seen since early May 2010, as the market was rolling over: Click to see a larger chart in a new tab: (chart) Usually when the McClellan Summation index peaks around this level, the stock market either corrects or treads water to digest its gains. The exception is when we have a very high velocity momentum market coming out of an incredibly oversold bear market condition. We saw this twice in the past 10 years: first in 2003 and then in 2009. I’ve drawn circles around those instances to mark them better. With those exceptions, however, the McClellan Summation index is a good measure of how ‘tired’ breadth is. By the way, I use the Nasdaq McClellan Summation index instead of the NYSE variation due to the pollution of non-operating company issues trading on the big board which skew the breadth data significantly. Click to see a larger chart in a new tab: (chart) The other breadth measure I refer to repeatedly is the analysis of the number of new highs relative to new lows. The High-Low index is basically a ratio of the number of new 52 week highs divided by the number of new 52 week lows added to the new highs. Since it can be rather jittery, I’ve smoothed it with a 10 day (or 2 trading week) moving average. You can see the same two periods of extreme momentum when the needle got stuck almost consistently to 90-100%. Excluding those, a reading this high corresponds to a market top: Click to see a larger chart in a new tab: (chart) Fibonacci Target Moving away from market internals, we can take a look at the charts based on simple resistance and support. With such a rally in place, it is normal for the market to consolidate the gains before moving forward, especially with the April highs so close and acting as resistance. (chart) A 61.8% Fibonacci retracement between the low in early July (1010.91) to the ‘top’ from Monday (1185.53) gives a target area at 1118. This also dovetails nicely with the previous resistance which pushed back the S&P 500 in mid June and early August. So as a previous resistance level, this is a natural support area for the market to retest.’

Fundamentals Always Matter The Housing Time Bomb What a wacky couple days in the market eh? Whoa! Volatility is back! None of this helps from a confidence standpoint of course. The dollar trade the past few days was absolutely ridiculous (click to enlarge): [chart] Crazy isn't it? Moves like this on the dollar just are not supposed to happen. Stocks and other commodities caught fire once the dollar started collapsing yesterday morning. We sold off later in the day to close up around 1%. What was interesting yesterday was watching the bond market. Take a look at the 10 year (click to enlarge): [chart] As you can see, bonds actually moved higher despite the sharp rally in stocks. We should have seen bonds move in the other direction as the market soared higher. This pretty much tells you that there wasn't much conviction behind the rally. Most investors remain scared and prefer to sit in bonds. The move higher was all about the falling dollar yesterday. Why this is a good thing for stocks is beyond me. I also think that all of the money the Fed is creating is one of the reasons why we are seeing both stocks and bonds rising at the same time. We had another POMO from the Fed yesterday, much like we saw on Monday so yesterday's move makes a little more sense from a "funny money" standpoint. Fundamentally of course none of this makes any sense, but we all know that's have gone out the window for the time being. Just keep one thing in the back of your mind: The fundamentals always matter. Just ask anyone that leveraged themselves into the tech bubble. Let me finish up with a great video of Jim Rogers aired on CNBC Asia last night. Jim hits the cover off the ball as he slams CNBC, and rips into the artificial book values of the banks that the analysts feed the bulltards on Bubblevision. Enjoy!

Investor Bullishness, Low Fear Level Hint At Market Top Harding As all investors and traders are aware, investor sentiment is a ‘contrary’ indicator, always at high levels of bullishness and complacency at market tops, and at extreme levels of bearishness and fear at market bottoms. Because sentiment can remain at extreme levels for quite some time it cannot be used to time the market, but when it reaches those extremes it does serve as a warning to keep an eye on other conditions and signals. The results of the weekly member poll of by the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) were released last night, and showed bullishness at 49.6% and bearishness at 25.2%, for a spread of 24.4. The poll reached 50.9% bullish a month ago, so it remains in its warning zone around 50% bullish. It reached only 48.5% bullish, 29.7% bearish at the April top this year.The VIX Index (aka the Fear Index) is also showing a low level of fear (high level of bullishness and complacency), bouncing around 20, in the area associated with rally tops since the last bull market ended in 2007, as marked by the vertical red lines in the chart below. (Chart) And the October 12 Investors Intelligence Sentiment poll showed 47.2% bulls, only 22.5% bears. So, it might be wise to at least be aware of the sentiment situation at this point, particularly with the Dow’s internal strength, as measured by its Relative Strength Index, in negative divergence with the Dow’s last high (its RSI made lower highs). That was also the situation at the tops of the previous rallies of this year, as marked by the short-red lines on the chart. (Chart)

Initial Claims Fall More Than Expected (Two weeks to election – desperation mode) NEW YORK (TheStreet) – ‘The number of Americans filing unemployment claims for the first time fell more than expected last week according to a labor department report released early Thursday.

More from Shanthi Venkataraman

· Dow Posts Modest Gain Amid Choppy Trading

· Will QE2 Work?

· Economic Indicators Up in September

Market Activity

Initial weekly claims fell by 23,000 to 452,000 in the week ended Oct. 16, from the previous week. But the magnitude of the drop was exaggerated by the Labor Department's upward revision of the previous week's figure to 475,000 from 462,000. Still, analysts were expecting initial claims to drop by 7,000 to 452,000, according to consensus estimates from Briefing.com…’

Geithner’s Goal: Rebalanced World Economy Wall Street Journal | Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said he would use weekend meetings of G-20 finance ministers to advance efforts to “rebalance” the world economy so it is less reliant on U.S. consumers.

The Big Wall Street Banks Have Found A New Way To Strangle The American People: Predatory Property Tax Collection The Economic Collapse | Today, millions of American families are barely hanging on to their homes by their fingernails.

Currency Wars: A Race to the Bottom of the Inflationary Barrel Ron Paul | Inflation fears are heating up this week as Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke gave a speech in Boston on Friday, causing further frantic flight into gold by those fearful of the coming “quantitative easing” the Fed is set to deliver in November.

Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac bailouts could hit $363 billion, report says The taxpayer bailouts of housing finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac could cost as much as $363 billion through 2013, according to government projections released Thursday.

While Americans’ Taxes Are Jacked Up, Google Pays Just 2.4% Google Inc. cut its taxes by $3.1 billion in the last three years using a technique that moves most of its foreign profits through Ireland and the Netherlands to Bermuda.

While UK Hits Public With Massive Austerity Measures, Government Sends Extra £900 Million To EU The European Parliament voted through a budget rise yesterday that will cost Britain an extra £900 million next year – on the day George Osborne announced deep cuts to public spending.

We See Totally Surreal Markets As we write, the US dollar is in the process of trying to find at least a temporary bottom at 76.50 and to launch a countertrend rally. We would think a rally back to 80 is achievable, but we do not believe it’s sustainable – only some stabilization through the election. Japan drew a line in the sand at 82 and finished last Friday trading at 81.37. That does not smack of success, but we see improvement over the next two weeks.

SocGen’s Albert Edwards: The U.S. Public Is About To Revolt Albert Edwards of Societe Generale thinks U.S. citizens are on the brink of a political revolt, based on a declining standard of living brought on by an inefficient economic relationship with China.

National / World

Deathbed Globalist “Spills Gut” On Plan to Destroy America Kurt Nimmo | Pastor Lindsey Williams provided further details on the ongoing plan by the global elite to consolidate financial power and usher in world government.

States of Emergency Cassandra Anderson | Regionalism is a trick that uses re-zoning to establish new jurisdictional authority.

Ratigan Slams Tea Party Borg Hive Kurt Nimmo | Meet the new boss. Same as the old boss.

Obama’s Approval Rating at New Low in Most Recent Quarter Barack Obama averaged 44.7% job approval during the seventh quarter of his presidency. His average approval rating has declined each quarter since he took office, falling by more than two percentage points in the most recent quarter to establish a new low.

9/11 Mastermind Invited to Pentagon Paul Joseph Watson | American-born cleric who had key role in Fort Hood, Christmas Day, and Times Square attacks met with US officials months after inspiring alleged 9/11 hijackers.

We See Totally Surreal Markets Bob Chapman | We see totally surreal markets because the US government has been manipulating them under the fascist model for years.

Rand Paul Maintains Lead In Kentucky Despite Continued Smears Rand Paul has maintained his lead in the race for the Kentucky Senate seat over political rival Jack Conway, despite Conway’s attempts to smear him in campaign ads and corporate media hit pieces that continue to promulgate rumours and outright lies about the libertarian candidate.

Al-Qaeda Is A Front Group For The US Military-Industrial Complex American-born Al-Qaeda terror leader Anwar Al-Awlaki, who met with Pentagon officials months after 9/11, is by no means the only patsy handler the Central Intelligence Agency has used over the years to oversee false flag attacks in America and around the world. In fact, just about every major terror attack has been run by an operative with direct ties to the US military-industrial complex.

Ratigan Slams Tea Party Borg Hive Less than two weeks out from the dog and pony show called mid-term elections and Dylan Ratigan wants to know what happened to the Tea Party. He correctly observes that the hitherto grassroots movement was sold down the river and absorbed by the Republican Party.

John Taylor Parallels Current Situation To World War 2, Predicts Global Debt Structure Could Collapse This war will not be fought for territory, but for markets and wealth, and when tariff walls are raised the destruction of livelihoods and property will be almost as dramatic as in the old fashioned shooting wars. With the loss of economic value, the global debt structure must collapse and entitlement promises will not survive.

France Grinds To Literal Halt As Authorities Impose Fuel Consumption Restrictions The strike that was supposed to be over two weeks ago refuses to go away. In the meantime, we get the following headline: “Local French Authorities say have imposed fuel consumption restrictions for the public in Normandy due to shortages.”

Al-Qaeda Mastermind Invited To Pentagon After 9/11 Al-Qaeda terror mastermind Anwar Al-Awlaki, the man who helped plot the aborted Christmas Day bombing, the Fort Hood shooting, the Times Square bombing attempt, and who also preached to the alleged September 11 hijackers, dined at the Pentagon just months after 9/11 documents obtained by Fox News show.

France Unrest: Street battles in Lyon, blocked Marseille airport, protests in Paris It’s another day of unrest in France, where Marseille’s airport has been blocked by protesters and further demonstrations are planned in Paris. It’s all part of the anger at proposals to raise the retirement age from 60 to 62, which would still be one of the lowest in Europe.

UK Unions Threaten French-Style Riots In Backlash To Draconian Austerity Measures Unions told the Government to brace itself for French-style street protests last night after the Chancellor confirmed that half a million public sector jobs will be axed.

Bill Clinton ‘lost vital White House nuclear codes’ For several months during Bill Clinton’s administration, a former top military officer says the White House lost the card with a set of numbers for opening the briefcase containing the codes for a nuclear attack.

French Union Calls for ‘Massive’ Strikes Next Week A French union leader called on Thursday for further “massive” strike action next week against pension reforms that have triggered the biggest and most sustained anti-austerity protests in Europe.

US foes seek ‘new world order’ Venezuela and Iran denounce US imperialism as they flex their economic muscles by signing a raft of energy deals.

SocGen’s Albert Edwards: The U.S. Public Is About To Revolt Albert Edwards of Societe Generale thinks U.S. citizens are on the brink of a political revolt, based on a declining standard of living brought on by an inefficient economic relationship with China.

Drudgereport: 264 HOURS: Key Senate Battles Tighten...
NOONAN: 'Tea party' saved GOP from Bush...
Axelrod Suggests Dem Upset: 'Stay Up For The Full Night'...
ELECTION MONTH: Millions of early voters...
GALLUP: Obama's Approval Rating at New Low...
Wall St mogul picked for State Dept post...

FANNIE/GOLDMAN lobbyist tapped as National Security Advisor… (Wow!)...
FANNIE, FREDDIE bailout could double...
French union calls for massive new pension protest...

DAY 9: Chaos as airports are blockaded...
'Birthright' of privileges...
Fuel short as port, refinery strikes drag on...
Sarkozy lashes out...
Connecticut law firm opens drive-thru window … [ This doesn’t surprise me a bit based upon experience with such connecticut liars as coan et als, etc. ] ...

SHOWDOWN: French Strikes Intensify...

BROKE UK SLASHES 500,000 GOV'T JOBS...

SHOWDOWN: French Strikes Grow ...
Tourists warned to stay away as violence spirals...
'Birthright' of privileges...
Will Americans Follow Mass Civil Unrest?
Will the Federal Reserve Cause a Civil War?
NJ Toll Worker Earns $321,985...
[Such is life in the multi-ethnic mob-infested / controlled, pervasively corrupt, garbage state (ny, northeast, dc metro/ va, cal, not far behind) … could you imagine the figures for pols / judges, etc., if bribes and drug money, etc., were included. ] ‘…It took place as tolls were being increased. The biggest expense uncovered in the audit was $30 million in unjustified bonuses to employees and management in 2008 and 2009 without consideration of performance…’
Sarkozy vows crack down...
DAY 6: Violent turn...
Thousands protest against looming cuts in London...
SHOWDOWN: China halting key minerals to USA...
ANGER...
HAS THE FED RUN OUT OF IDEAS? [ Quite some time ago, actually. ]

THE 'INFLATION' OPTION...
Dollar Declines for Fifth Week...
Support for Afghanistan war at all-time low...

17 SOLDIERS KILLED IN PAST 3 DAYS...
Limbaugh: Obama looks 'demonic' in new photos … and limbaugh knows demonic, himself and relative wobama ... [
Obama Distant Cousins with Palin, Limbaugh, Bush | CNSnews.com Obama Distant Cousins with Palin, Limbaugh, Bush. Obama's Related to Palin. Wednesday, October 13, 2010. By Jocelyn Noveck, Associated Press ... www.cnsnews.com/news/.../obama-distant-cousins-palin-limbaugh-bushes (wobama, palin, limbaugh, bush distant cousins … I knew there were some dark secrets there … hillbilly heroin, etc.. – Wow! Talk about the nation-declining dangers of inbreeding! Poor defacto bankrupt, pervasively corrupt america never had a chance! ) ]
ABCNEWS: 63 Dem House Seats in 'Serious Danger'...
Barone: Dems find careers threatened by ObamaCare votes...
GALLUP: Unemployment at 10.0% in Mid-October...

Fed survey finds economy continues to rise modestly (Washington Post) [ It’s truly a pleasure to see Mr. Irwin cured of the ‘perpetual glass-half-full syndrome’ , even if somewhat tepidly so, and particularly with but two weeks to election-time what would we expect as Mr. Irwin reminds us, ‘That conclusion contrasted with that of the previous beige book, released in early September, which reported "widespread signs of deceleration compared with previous periods."…’] Data contrast with that of September's "beige book," which said "widespread signs of deceleration compared with previous periods." [See infra, This is an especially great opportunity to sell / take profits (these lower dollar, hyperinflationary currency manipulations / translations to froth paper stocks will end quite badly as in last crash)! This is a global depression. This is a secular bear market in a global depression. The past up moves were manipulated bull (s***) cycles (at best) in a secular bear market. This has been a typically manipulated bubble as has preceded the prior crashes with great regularity that the wall street frauds and insiders commission and sell into. This is a typical wall street ‘programmed computerized high-frequency churn and earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud as in prior crashes’. This national decline, economic and otherwise, will not end until justice is served and the wall street frauds et als are criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed.The Stock Market's Long Decline Has Begun Smith ‘The Fed's campaign to boost the risk-trade in equities by destroying the dollar has reached its limits. Now gravity will take hold as stocks enter a Long Decline.On Monday, Daily Finance published my article Is the Market Ready to Roll Over? These Signs Say Yes.

DoD plans weapons sale to Saudi Arabia (Washington Post ) [ I strongly recommend the well done, well researched film, ‘Lord of War’, which effectively captures in a relatively small amount of time the essential theme of creating the conflict, strife, conditions, bogeymen, etc., (ie., Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan, etc.,) to create need for the lucrative and deadly arms trade (lots of cash and bribes as well). ] The proposed $60B sale will be the largest arms deal to another country in U.S. history if the sale goes through and all purchases are made

British budget cuts to include nearly 500,000 job losses (Washington Post) Historic $131M cuts, aimed at reducing the country's deficit, will cost the public sector half a million jobs. [infowars.com / prisonplanet.com - Broke UK Slashes 500,000 Government Jobs [ I highly recommend the prescient film, ‘V for Vendetta’ (underplayed to audiences here and thar’), which, in portraying the Orwellian English society of a not too distant future (the adoption of nazi-like ways is not lost on the fact that the so-called ‘royal family’ are Germans, and don’t forget the queen’s gift to wobama of Orwell’s ‘1984’) , factors in the fait accomplis of american civil war which has begun and is inevitable in light of the pervasive greed, corruption, and incompetence of american leadership, publicly and privately, as well as inherent criminality, government / non-government. ] Up to 500,000 public sector jobs could go by 2014-15 as a result of the cuts programme, according to the Office for Budgetary Responsibility. Time Magazine: Prospect Of Civil War In U.S. “Doesn’t Seem That Far Fetched” With protesters in France entering a seventh day of strikes and demonstrations against draconian austerity measures, many political observers in the U.S. are now wondering how long it will be before similar scenes unfold on American streets, with even Time Magazine now conceding that the prospect of a civil war in the States “doesn’t seem that far fetched”.

Foreclosure freeze could put security clearances at risk (Washington Post) [ How ‘bout solving the problem by just eliminating the superfluous, over-priced (including lifetime appointees) federal jobs which are fraught with corruption of all kinds in addition to being boondoggles for the incompetent! ]

Activists read between the lines on paperwork (Washington Post) [ True enough! Attention to problems with proper title for foreclosure had already shown up in some courts and had been referenced here on this site in the context of the wall street fraud / debacle in re-bundling (for re-commissioning) the worthless toxic paper over and over again …see also, ie., Foreclosure Expert Confirms Mortgages Pledged Multiple Times, Not Actually Securitized, Document Problem Is Really a System of “Push-Button Fraud” infowars.com / prisonplanet.com -Yesterday, I showed that mortgages were fraudulently pledged to multiple buyers at the same time. ]

This is an especially great opportunity to sell / take profits (these lower dollar, hyperinflationary currency manipulations / translations to froth paper stocks will end quite badly as in last crash)! This is a global depression. This is a secular bear market in a global depression. The past up moves were manipulated bull (s***) cycles (at best) in a secular bear market. This has been a typically manipulated bubble as has preceded the prior crashes with great regularity that the wall street frauds and insiders commission and sell into. This is a typical wall street ‘programmed computerized high-frequency churn and earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud as in prior crashes’. This national decline, economic and otherwise, will not end until justice is served and the wall street frauds et als are criminally prosecuted, jailed, fined, and disgorgement imposed.

The Stock Market's Long Decline Has Begun Smith ‘The Fed's campaign to boost the risk-trade in equities by destroying the dollar has reached its limits. Now gravity will take hold as stocks enter a Long Decline.On Monday, Daily Finance published my article Is the Market Ready to Roll Over? These Signs Say Yes. On Tuesday, October 19, the market did roll over.Is this merely a brief hiccup on the way to S&P500 1,500 and Dow 15,000, or the first stages in a Long Decline? Here is the evidence to support the idea that stocks are entering a Long Decline.Back on October 8 I looked at some of these issues in Look Out Below (I've got a bad feeling about this).As always, please note this is not investment advice, it is merely the musings of an amateur observer; please review the HUGE GIANT BIG FAT DISCLAIMER below.First up, the U.S. dollar, which the Fed has been destroying to prop up equities before the election: (Chart) Alas, there is pushback from various forces against this destruction of the dollar, and as the dollar climbs then the see-saw tips and equities decline. Those predicting the continued destruction of the dollar see a double-top pattern suggesting "the top is in;" I see a long-term uptrend line and a line of resistance around 90 that will eventually be broken to the upside. Time will tell who is right, the dollar Bears or the dollar Bulls. Mr. VIX is waving the yellow flag of "crash ahead." Complacency in the face of sobering financial realities is not just unreal but completely deranged. To note but a few:

1. A Eurozone debt crisis which has not been resolved, despite the propaganda.

2. A massive credit/real estate bubble in China which will burst, just like every other bubble in history, despite the many voices claiming "there is no bubble in Chinese real estate."

3. A foreclosure/MBS/bank insolvency structural crisis in the U.S. which has barely started.

Note that the VIX is marking out a long-term uptrend of higher lows, meaning increasing volatility is the backdrop against which the market acts out its various dramatics. (Chart) The broad-based S&P 500 (SPX) is looking toppy and vulnerable on the weekly chart. Note the declining volume as retail investors continue pulling tens of billions of dollars out of the pump-and-dump charade known as the U.S. stock market. Also note the bearish cross of the 20-day MA dipping below the 50-day MA, signaling the start of a downtrend, and the weakening MACD trend. Kissing the resistance of the 200-day moving average and then rolling over is a classic market move. (Chart) Beneath the new high notched by the NADAQ 100 (NDX) we see marked weakness.Now that Apple has rolled over, then who's left to keep the tech-heavy NDX afloat? Google (GOOG), Amazon (AMZN) and Priceline (PCLN)? Three companies out of 100 is a very narrow market, and one vulnerable to just the sort of rollover we are now witnessing. (Chart) The other "market leader" sector, the financials, are running a high fever. Bogus "earnings" from the money-center banks (reduce your reserves against losses by $6 billion and surprise, you "booked a profit" on paper) have lifted the financial ETF XLF off the crumbling edge of meltdown, but at some point the flag/wedge pattern here will break big up or down. Does anyone with skin in the game seriously think banks are poised to reap vast new profits? Really? From where? Enough to offset the tens of billions they will be losing as the MBS/foreclosure fraud bills come due? (Chart) There is very little support in this chart once it breaks below $12.50: next stop, $7.50 and then $5. Disclosure: I am short the XLF via puts and long FAZ. HUGE GIANT BIG FAT DISCLAIMER: Nothing on this site should be construed as investment advice or guidance. It is not intended as investment advice or guidance, nor is it offered as such. It is solely the opinion of the writer, who is NOT an investment counselor/professional. All the content of this website is solely an expression of his personal interests and is posted as free-of-charge opinion and commentary. If you seek investment advice, consult a registered, qualified investment counselor (As with any other professional service, confirm their track record and referrals).’

We Are Heading Into a Hyperinflationary Storm? Summers ‘In the last month and a half, stocks have COMPLETELY returned to the atmosphere of March-April 2010: an atmosphere in which stocks are overbought, overstretched, and yet KEEP rallying. [chart] As you can see, the daily RSI has just touched “overbought” status at 70. From a strictly technical standpoint, the next lines of resistance are 1,180, then 1,205 on the S&P 500. We’ve now got layers upon layers of support as well: [chart] Most market analysts would look at this set-up and say that we’re in a new bull market. I do not think that is the case. Instead, I think the market is discounting major inflation and possibly hyperinflation. Indeed, if stocks are overbought and overextended, their performance is nothing compared to that of Gold: [chart] As you can see, the precious metal has erupted higher since mid-August. As I write this, bullion is up 23% since March 2010. Compare this to the S&P 500’s performance of 1.3% over the same time period, and it’s clear which asset class is the one to own. Indeed, priced in Gold, stocks have done nothing since April. [chart] This final chart is key to understanding what’s happening in the markets. In plain terms, stocks are NOT creating wealth, they are rallying based on Dollar devaluation, If you price them in non-paper currency (Gold), they are LOSING purchasing power. This is also clear when you compare the S&P 500’s performance to that of the US Dollar over the last few months. [chart] As you can see, we have a near perfect inverse correlation here, with stocks rallying as the US Dollar falls. With that in mind, we need to focus on the US currency, since its drop is what’s fueling this rampant speculation in stocks and commodities. [chart] The US Dollar is now oversold and nearing its multi-year trendline. If we DO NOT bounce here, then the next line of support is at 74. After that, it’s the 2008 low (also the 20 year low) of 71. I have to be blunt here: if the US Dollar DOES NOT bounce soon, a hyper-inflationary scenario is INCREASINGLY likely in the US. Indeed on a weekly basis a break down past 74 on the US Dollar would trigger a MASSIVE Head and Shoulders pattern which has a downside target of 40 or so (roughly 50% lower than where the US Dollar is today). If this collapse were to occur, you would see hyperinflation erupt in the US similar to that of Weimar Germany. Precious metals would erupt higher and the US Dollar would no longer be the reserve currency of the world. [chart] What’s truly worrisome is that the Fed is hell bent on enacting the exact same policies that have created the Dollar collapse (and the rally in stocks) over the last few months, namely, additional Permanent Open Market Operations (POMO) ramp jobs. The name sounds clever, but it really just consists of the Fed buying US debt from the large private banks, which in turn take the Fed’s money and buy stocks. Indeed, the Fed just announced it will be monetizing an additional $32 billion worth of US debt in the next few weeks. The schedule for these ramp jobs is as follows:
-October 15:
-October 18:
-October 20:-
-October 22:
-October 26:
-October 28:
-November 1:
-November 4:
-November 8:
In plain terms, the Fed is going to keep doing what it’s been doing: trashing the US Dollar to pump stocks. And it’s going to do this to the tune of some $10 billion per week over the next month. Thus, as ridiculous as it sounds, the stocks up/ US Dollar down trend of the last two months is likely to continue into early November.
But if the US Dollar doesn’t bounce soon and start rallying with force, we’re heading into a VERY nasty period. Disclosure: None’

Markets Thrust Headlong Into the Maelstrom of Correction Now that Apple (AAPL) earnings have come and gone, the market has likely commenced its topping process and investors should expect choppy sessions ahead. Tops come in two forms. Markets either set a conclusive top, which is followed by 10-15 sessions of straight down (much like we saw in late June), or they tend to consolidate through a series of huge up and down moves (like we saw in January, April and July). Given the velocity of this move up, the bulls will simply not give up that easily. This 170-point whacking will be swiftly answered by the bulls. But don't get too complacent or think that we're headed much higher from here as we limp into the mid-term elections and QE2. We'll see a good fight from the bulls, much like we did for 10 sessions before topping in late April. But the bears will win this battle and we'll get a much needed correction. It's healthy for the markets after a move like we've had. Yet, unlike these past few corrections since April, this correction could very likely present us with a good buying opportunity. In fact, I think that this correction could be the last we'll see in a very long time. What I suspect will happen is that we'll see a very severe sell-off followed by another 2009-type leg up in the markets. There's a very large number of reasons why we're set to sell-off. But seeing as how the vast majority (>99%) of market participants simply misconstrue the difference between the weight of evidence and conclusion, I won't be surprised to see the idiocy that usually comes with the writing of these types of articles. Yet, because I like to take on tasks which are obviously futile, I'll give it a shot nonetheless. Here are the reasons why we're probably going to see a significant sell-off very shortly, if we haven't started already. The vast majority of these reasons come by way of Cobra's Market View. I'm just summarizing what he has already said over the past few weeks. But the evidence has now gotten overwhelmingly bearish.
1. Commercial Hedges are far too net short the NASDAQ-100. Whenever commercial traders get this short the NDX, there is a very high likelihood for a correction. And seeing as how the NASDAQ led this move higher; as goes the NASDAQ-100, so goes the market. Commercial hedgers took record short positions in October. More than double what we saw ahead of the 2008 top. This chart is courtesy of SentimentTrader and annotations are courtesy of Cobra's Market View. See here.
2. The AAII Bull Ratio (4-week average) is way too high. There's a very strong correlation between market tops and bullish sentiment getting over-extended. Notice the strong correlation between market tops and extreme levels in AAII (click). Again, this chart is courtesy of SentimentTrader, the find and annotations courtesy of Cobra's Market View.
3. Too many Reversals. Peter (Yong) Pan, the author of Cobra's Market View, noticed a strong correlation between market tops and multiple reversal days. We've had far too many reversal days now. In fact, this is the highest number of reversal days recorded for any rally without a correction since 2008. Good game? We've had 4 actual bearish reversals into the red and 8 or more reversals that while didn't close red, were deep reversals nonetheless. Again, notice the correlation between tops and reversals.
4. Institutional selling divergence from the market getting high. Though the market continued to rise through October, institutional selling starting to pick up. This also has a high correlation to tops in the market. See Cobra's Market View chart here.
5. VIX at 1-Month Low in October. Here's a table outlining the S&P 500's performance in the 2-3 weeks after the VIX hits a one-month low in the month of October. The odds highly favor the bears under these circumstances. See here.
6. Up Big on Off-Season. Whenever the S&P 500 is up in the off-earnings season, the tendency has been to sell the market during earnings season. The last three times the S&P 500 has been up 5% or more in the off-season, the average sell-off during earnings season has been about 5%. See here.
7. ISEE Index & ETF Only hitting too many extremes. There's also a very high correlation to tops in the market whenever, on multiple days, we see a reading of over 100 on the call-put ratio on the indices (Index & ETF Only ISEE). Whenever we start to see a lot of hedging or outright shorting near the end of a big rally like we've had, its been a pretty big sign that we're headed lower. This chart is courtesy of Cobra's Market View and the International Securities Exchange. Note the high correlation between tops in the market, and multiple days of high ISEE index readings.
8. Broken Rising Wedge. We have a confirmed broken rising wedge on the SPY as of Tuesday. That is pretty bearish. Rising wedges are by their nature bearish formations to begin with as nearly 70% of the cases will usually end with a breakout to the downside.
9. Lower Trend Line Failure. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) broke its lower trend line Tuesday. The DJIA tends to lead the market. Tuesday's failure is just another piece of evidence suggesting we're headed lower.
10. Apple Weakening. Now for the grand finale. Apple is the unequivocal market leader and was the market leader in this huge September rally. Now just because Apple sold off on earnings doesn't mean that this particular move up is over. In fact, there are cases where Apple has reversed out of its sell-off to make new highs days later. But those cases are very few. If Apple closes under $300 a share, it will be a very bad sign for this market, and particularly for the QQQQ (given the fact that it's nearly 20% of the weighting of the NASDAQ-100).
There's some strong evidence that Apple is very overextended. You can see the arguments making a case for an intermediate term top in Apple (2-3 months) here. Now for the big disclaimer. This is the part that 99% of the people who are in the financial industry have difficulty comprehending: Just because the evidence overwhelmingly favors the bear case, just because the correlations are very high that we've either topped or are approaching a top to this rally, just because commercial traders are super net short, doesn't mean that we are going to sell off with 100% certainty! This is just evidence! Evidence needs to be weighed against other considerations. Right now the balance of the evidence supports a conclusion that the market is about to undergo a correction. If the market doesn't happen to sell-off from here, it doesn't make the conclusion or the evidence any less valid. Just because an indicator doesn't work one time, doesn't mean that the entire sample of cases becomes invalidated. Most of the indicators above have such a high level of reliability that any one of them individually can suggest we're topping when at extremes. We have several indicators at extremes. Yet, in the end, what moves this market higher is a willing buyer and a willing seller. If the supply of buyers continues to outstrip the supply of sellers, then despite the hard evidence, we're going higher. But the only common sense thing for traders and investors to do is to bet with the probability. Right now, the odds favor the bears. That's all that can be said here. But given that QE2 is right around the corner, given that the mid-term elections are right around the corner, and given that Ben Bernanke has made it painfully obvious that the Federal Reserve will do everything in its power to backstop the equities market, anything is possible. If Bernanke wants it, we can rally 100 straight days from here with every single indicator in the market hitting extremes. One more thing: These were just a selection of some of the indicators suggesting that we're at extreme levels. Good luck! Disclosure: Net long Apple with a fully hedged call-spread. Heavy puts on the QQQQ.Disclaimer: The information contained in this blog is not to be taken as either an investment or trading recommendation, and serious traders or investors should consult with their own professional financial advisors before acting on any thoughts expressed in this publication. This blog is for intellectual and educational purposes only.

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